Latest / The Curve / Billionaire Beef & the Hidden Cost of Tariffs.
Transcript
- 0:00Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
- 0:04business and stock market too.
- 0:06Brought to you by the Curve's research team, that's the latest insights on what's happening
- 0:09in the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
- 0:14ahead of the curve.
- 0:15You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros you need to know, Patti.
- 0:19Okay, look, we're going to have to speak really fast because we only got half an hour
- 0:22to say something.
- 0:23We're really quick podcasts.
- 0:24I hate when we do this because the podcast is my favourite thing to do.
- 0:28I don't know why we ever brush it, you know?
- 0:31And it's also like, I put in anxiety and juicing.
- 0:34Because if you say something, you've got to chat for like 10 minutes and the podcast is
- 0:37not going to be enough.
- 0:38You're like, damn it.
- 0:39Why did you say that?
- 0:40Exactly.
- 0:41Oh my gosh.
- 0:42Do you like any pants?
- 0:45Yeah.
- 0:46They're brown.
- 0:47Are they brown?
- 0:48No.
- 0:49Yes.
- 0:50Look at me.
- 0:51I'm in shorts.
- 0:52Look how good they are.
- 0:53Do you like them?
- 0:54Nice.
- 0:55I reckon they're so good.
- 0:57You just did the skank leg.
- 0:58Stank leg?
- 1:00Like a hip-hop dancer.
- 1:01Yeah.
- 1:02Stop it.
- 1:04I always wanted to be good at hip-hop.
- 1:06So bad.
- 1:07In fact, actually, I think we have to bring out the hip-hop dance.
- 1:12Should I play it?
- 1:13Like, actually, I'll send it to our producer and later put it to actually include
- 1:16because I don't get embarrassed very easily.
- 1:20Like, I'm kind of like, oh, whatever.
- 1:21I accidentally went to a full on advanced dance class in London.
- 1:26Thinking like, oh, how advanced can it be?
- 1:28And I got there and I was like, professional dancers.
- 1:30And I was just lagging behind in the background.
- 1:34It was like, honestly, the most uncoordinated, embarrassing,
- 1:37unsexy dancing you've ever seen in your life.
- 1:39And then, like, times that by 10 times that by 10.
- 1:42It's so bad.
- 1:56So bad.
- 1:57It's so, like, honestly, I would have run out of there.
- 2:15Like, good one you for trying.
- 2:17Oh, you have no idea how many times I wanted to leave.
- 2:20But I almost sort of would be worse.
- 2:22But then, yeah, I was so bad that I thought I'm going to be ruining
- 2:26the rest of the dancer's class because they're just going
- 2:28to be so distracted by this like incredibly uncoordinated person
- 2:32that just cannot for the life of them remember the dance.
- 2:34But like, yeah, I feel like the people would be like,
- 2:37oh, no, you know, we all were bad at some point at something.
- 2:42Do you know what I mean?
- 2:43It was always our first time trying something
- 2:45and then you get good.
- 2:46Whether it's tennis, whether it's in vestiges,
- 2:48whether it's go to the beginning class, you know,
- 2:50they just don't go full-tit into your advanced class.
- 2:54That's like the other day,
- 2:55Flower Man went to his first yoga class.
- 2:58Oh, my God, good on hand.
- 2:59No, no.
- 3:00And he turned up.
- 3:01Is that because we were like ripping me
- 3:03out for being like incredibly unbalanced in our last
- 3:06COVID day?
- 3:06Probably.
- 3:07Anyway, he got there.
- 3:09He was like, he's very talkative.
- 3:10I was like talking to the other people in the class
- 3:13and around, he's like, oh, and the instructors
- 3:16like, oh, so we're really for our advanced handstand.
- 3:20He'd stand class.
- 3:21He was like, what?
- 3:22And then he turned to the guy next to me and he's like, oh,
- 3:25what class is this?
- 3:26And it was advanced headstand.
- 3:29Oh, my God.
- 3:31I could have got into that.
- 3:32And he stayed.
- 3:33He stayed in the air.
- 3:34To keep it, yeah.
- 3:35Oh, shit, yeah, man.
- 3:36God, that's good.
- 3:38Maybe, maybe, do you know what, Benny Blanco?
- 3:41Like, all these actually nice guys
- 3:43are starting to get profiled, right?
- 3:45Maybe the fuck boy will be gone forever
- 3:48and all of a sudden,
- 3:49men are going to start just being cool, calm, collected,
- 3:53in tune with themselves.
- 3:54You know what I'm just saying?
- 3:56Yeah, maybe the soft boys coming in.
- 3:58I hope so.
- 3:59Well, because we're on a time crunch,
- 4:01let's jump straight into it, so.
- 4:03Can I just say one thing quickly?
- 4:05I just got back from being down south
- 4:08on like a little family.
- 4:10I get away.
- 4:10Someone in my family has been having a real shit
- 4:12over time lately.
- 4:13And I had a real moment on the plane on the way back.
- 4:19Thinking about the whole thing.
- 4:20So my grandma, who is 86 now,
- 4:25but her husband died when she was 44
- 4:28and she'd never paid a bill in her life.
- 4:31She didn't know anything about money.
- 4:32She was so, so separated
- 4:35from any of the finances in the family.
- 4:38And she just had to figure it out.
- 4:40She was like, on her own,
- 4:41my granddad died within three months.
- 4:43It was like the quickest thing ever.
- 4:44And then all of a sudden, she's like, shit, anyway.
- 4:48Point of the story is she invested so well.
- 4:52And she invested in property.
- 4:54She took advice from people around her.
- 4:56And anyway, she's now in a position
- 4:58where like the other day we were talking about
- 5:01someone in our family who's having this really awful time
- 5:02and she was like, do you know what?
- 5:04Let's just go down and cheer her up.
- 5:05Let's go down.
- 5:06I'm gonna book the flights.
- 5:07She whipped her card out and she bought both of us flights
- 5:10down south.
- 5:11She booked really beautiful accommodations
- 5:12so that we could have like a little cute family time.
- 5:15And she was just like, honestly, her words were,
- 5:18oh, blow it.
- 5:18We only love ones.
- 5:19But for her, it was like the freedom of thought.
- 5:21It's the ability to pay, yeah.
- 5:23A hundred percent, like being in a position
- 5:25where you can make a decision to do something beautiful
- 5:29for the people that you love.
- 5:31And it not be something you have to think twice about.
- 5:34I was just like, I really hope one day,
- 5:36I am that example for my grandkids, you know?
- 5:39It was just like, I was honestly on the plane
- 5:41like kind of tearing up just being like,
- 5:43God, she's an amazing example.
- 5:44And I'm so lucky to have had that.
- 5:46There's such a strong woman that is totally
- 5:50independent and self-sufficient.
- 5:51And she had to learn when there was no curve,
- 5:54no financial education.
- 5:56She was just totally on her own.
- 5:57And I just was like, God, that's cool.
- 6:00Go, Granny.
- 6:01Love that. Go, Granny.
- 6:03I also tried to play her a Candace Bush not episode.
- 6:05And she, I was like, Granny, if you listen to our podcast,
- 6:07she was like, no, what's that?
- 6:09I'm so offended, but also I get it.
- 6:14Anyway, sorry, we can move on to stop my ideas.
- 6:16I just thought that was like a really cool thing
- 6:19to reflect on.
- 6:20No, it's true.
- 6:21And it's like, it's not only your own money and wealth
- 6:26that you're trying to grow and prosper and be independent
- 6:29where it's like, money does your right.
- 6:32It brings you the freedom to make those decisions,
- 6:38to spend money on what you value.
- 6:39And if that is your paying for flights to jump down
- 6:42to be with a friend or a family that needs you,
- 6:44if sending flowers to someone who is sick
- 6:47or just needs cheering up, all of that stuff
- 6:50comes down to what do you value in terms of?
- 6:53And being clever with your money now.
- 6:55And also, I think the other thing for me was like,
- 6:57it spans generations.
- 6:59You know, like the financial knowledge,
- 7:02the idea of having money, it is intergenerational.
- 7:06And I just think it was like, I was so lucky to be able
- 7:09to be there.
- 7:11But I wasn't in a position in person that where I was like,
- 7:13don't actually do you know what, Granny?
- 7:15Don't worry.
- 7:16I got this, you know?
- 7:17But I, you know, but I thought one day, one day I will.
- 7:21And it was just like a cool feeling to be like,
- 7:23how cool would that be when?
- 7:25You're like, great idea, Granny.
- 7:27Great idea, book two.
- 7:28You know, book two rooms.
- 7:30I'm like, what that kind of comes?
- 7:32Yeah.
- 7:34Yeah.
- 7:35You know, Yolo, get the business class
- 7:38like Yolo, get that next year.
- 7:40She did.
- 7:41I'm a full accommodation.
- 7:42Honestly, it was so sweet.
- 7:43We went to Millbrook.
- 7:44I've never been.
- 7:45I thought that I'd go there to, you know,
- 7:46maybe get engaged one day, but there I was with my Granny
- 7:48and I just thought, this could not be better.
- 7:51And I actually thought, maybe the golf guys
- 7:53are onto something because this shit is beautiful.
- 7:55Oh, yeah.
- 7:56Wow.
- 7:57Yes, I'm an incredible golf course is around.
- 7:58Okay.
- 7:59Amazon, there's been a bit of a tit for tat,
- 8:02spat, some more big dick energy.
- 8:05What if you wanna call it?
- 8:06Between Jeff Bezos and Amazon and Donald Trump.
- 8:11So, is it weird that I'm into this?
- 8:14I know.
- 8:15I'm like, yeah, fight billionaires.
- 8:16Fight.
- 8:17Yeah.
- 8:21And we'll just sit there with our popcorn thing.
- 8:22Like, oh, this is going to unfold.
- 8:24How are these billions going to get thrown around?
- 8:26They spearchained.
- 8:27So, yeah, yeah.
- 8:28So they, Amazon came out saying, look, we're going to put
- 8:33the tariff amount on a receipt, you know, on the transaction.
- 8:38So everyone can see it when you buy something from Amazon.
- 8:41And Trump got really up in arms because the whole thing was
- 8:46that Amazon was trying to show customers that, at the end of the day,
- 8:51customers end up paying for these tariffs.
- 8:53And so Trump didn't like that.
- 8:56Yeah, so Trump didn't like that.
- 8:59You know, he was like, here's a company that...
- 9:01Oh, darling, did you not like it?
- 9:03Did you not think that would happen, darling?
- 9:05Oh, poor Trump-y.
- 9:07Did you think these billionaires would just suck it up
- 9:09and it would eat into their fortunes?
- 9:11No.
- 9:12Oh, god.
- 9:13Of course, everything gets passed to the consumer.
- 9:17Oh, darling.
- 9:17Theresa Dunbridge, yeah.
- 9:19That's economics 101.
- 9:21Maybe if you had some kind of business bone in your body,
- 9:24you would have realized that.
- 9:27Sorry.
- 9:27We could do half an hour of that, so we should quickly move along.
- 9:31Thank you.
- 9:32So essentially, Jeff Bezos was like,
- 9:36people deserve to know the impact
- 9:38that these tariffs are having on their finances
- 9:40and deserve to know that they end up paying them.
- 9:43And it's not the companies, it's not the country,
- 9:45it's not the government, it's the people.
- 9:47Since when are Jeff and Trump not buddy-buddy?
- 9:51I thought that they were kind of like, you know,
- 9:54in a relationship.
- 9:55There's been a bit of a fallout.
- 9:57There's been a bit of, what do you call it, kind of...
- 9:59I see this, I guess.
- 10:01Yeah, bit of beef, yeah.
- 10:03But I remember seeing a tech talk
- 10:06and it was this girl who was buying two triangle bikinis.
- 10:12Like, you know, that Australian brand and this.
- 10:14Oh, the smallest bikinis of all time.
- 10:16Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 10:17Like basically the thing that goes across your bum
- 10:19is like, it's just a string.
- 10:20Which, and I don't, by the way, I don't mean that.
- 10:22And I like, Snobby, it's not, like I have no issue
- 10:26with people wearing skinny bikinis.
- 10:28It's just more, if I order like an X, X, X out,
- 10:31it still doesn't cover like anything.
- 10:33Oh, I bought one, I saw all the supermodels in it
- 10:35and I was like, I want to buy it.
- 10:36And then I was like, oh, they got,
- 10:38never wear this again.
- 10:38Yeah, it's not, it's not flattering.
- 10:41I don't think on like anyone with any form of like curves
- 10:44in any area.
- 10:46Great brand, love it, love it, love it, love it.
- 10:48Yep, just not, just not for me personally.
- 10:51But anyway, someone had bought two bikinis.
- 10:54I think it was like a thousand US.
- 10:56But the total bill was 2000 US dollars.
- 10:59And they were like, what?
- 11:01And they showed like two bikinis, $1,000.
- 11:04Shipping was like, I don't know, $8.
- 11:07And then duties and taxes, $1,000.
- 11:12Oh, that's genius.
- 11:12The terrorists.
- 11:13And they were like, what?
- 11:16So yeah, these brands are not sucking it up.
- 11:19Like a, you know, small companies can't,
- 11:21like they have to pass it on.
- 11:23I mean, the Amazon's of the world could probably suck it up.
- 11:25But so hold on, so sorry, did this girl pay 2000
- 11:28and the bikinis got there and then she saw it
- 11:30or she got to check out, no, she was got to check out.
- 11:33Yeah, she got to check out and was like, oh, I'm so genius.
- 11:35So they're adding that all so you can see it before you buy.
- 11:38Or like, no, won't be buying that.
- 11:40Yeah.
- 11:41So anyway, so this is the whole conversation
- 11:43is going to lead to inflation.
- 11:46Because yes, we might be talking about a bikini,
- 11:48but like Amazon, like there's a lot of products
- 11:50on there, people actually need, you know, there are sentials.
- 11:53We're talking about groceries.
- 11:54We're talking about household items, you know,
- 11:56things that people genuinely can't just be like,
- 12:00oh, I won't buy that.
- 12:01So there's, there's got to be inflation
- 12:03and happening at a rapid rate in the US sometimes soon.
- 12:08Like there's just, the price of these goods
- 12:11are going up like so much.
- 12:13It just can't not happen.
- 12:14Can inflation be somewhat gatecapped?
- 12:17Like is there a world in which the US is drowning
- 12:20in inflation and we're okay?
- 12:22Or is it just naturally because we're so intertwined
- 12:25with the US economy, it's going to go everywhere?
- 12:27Well, there's talk of like in the short term,
- 12:29like Europe, Asia and like countries outside of the US
- 12:33will actually have, you know, could have deflation
- 12:35or it would deflationary pressure,
- 12:38which means that prices stay low, low-ish,
- 12:40but don't actually go backwards.
- 12:41And that's because all these goods
- 12:43that now people aren't buying in the US
- 12:46are coming to the rest of the world.
- 12:48So we're almost getting flooded with the supply of stuff.
- 12:51So therefore prices are kept quite low.
- 12:55But it's a really good question.
- 12:56And like over the long term,
- 12:58it probably could be contained to a point
- 13:00but there's so much, I guess, flow on a fix
- 13:04of what inflation itself does to like company profits
- 13:10and therefore the stock market
- 13:12and therefore, you know, our investments.
- 13:14And so there's so many, I guess, interrelativeness
- 13:18when it comes to economics and business.
- 13:20And so we should do.
- 13:22We should write a children's book about economics
- 13:24and do that and it's like, inflation doesn't like
- 13:28and you know, like have it as a real dumb-down version
- 13:30of how it's all connected.
- 13:32One thing I was thinking when you were talking bit
- 13:33was like, okay, so let's say that inflation
- 13:37does go through the growth.
- 13:40Having your money in the bank is really even worse
- 13:44when inflation is high.
- 13:45Like it's really bad.
- 13:46And for anyone that's not sure about that basically,
- 13:50it's just the concept that inflation means
- 13:53every year what you can buy, let's say you have $100
- 13:56and you wanted to buy a lamp.
- 13:58The next year, the lamp will be say,
- 14:00if inflation's at 20%, $120.
- 14:03So the $100 you have in the bank,
- 14:06you still have the $100.
- 14:07It's just that you can't buy the same thing with it
- 14:10because that thing has gone up in price.
- 14:12So I was just thinking if the US economy is totally
- 14:16on the floor, people don't want to invest
- 14:18in the stock market because Donald Trump is terrifying.
- 14:22Then where would everyone put their money if they were like,
- 14:25okay, well, I know I shouldn't keep it in the bank.
- 14:27What other investments I wonder would do really well?
- 14:30You know, maybe gold would do really well.
- 14:32Or maybe Bitcoin will keep going.
- 14:34Maybe there'll be, it's just an interesting thing
- 14:36to think about because yeah, there'll be people who are like,
- 14:39oh, well, I know that I shouldn't keep it in the bank,
- 14:41but absolutely fucking investing in the stock market
- 14:44because Donald Trump or, you know?
- 14:45And there's companies that do do well
- 14:48when inflation is high.
- 14:51Oh, this is what we're talking about in our workshop.
- 14:53Tomorrow. Yes.
- 14:54For anyone that's listening to this,
- 14:55we've put the workshop link to register
- 14:57in the podcast show notes
- 14:58because that's exactly what we want to talk about.
- 15:00Like what sort of things are we investing in?
- 15:02What have we been speaking about amongst the club
- 15:05and where is everything at?
- 15:07And how can you make the most of what's going on in the market?
- 15:10Because there are really good things to invest in.
- 15:12It's just that some things do well in this environment
- 15:15and some don't and like obviously knowing that
- 15:17is such a head start.
- 15:18And also remember when we have high inflation,
- 15:20the way that we bring it down is interest rates.
- 15:26Yes.
- 15:27Yeah, interest rates going up and inflation comes down.
- 15:30So that means...
- 15:31Yeah, it's a seesaw.
- 15:33Yeah, it is a seesaw.
- 15:35So interest rates being high
- 15:37mean that it's harder or scarier to be borrowing money.
- 15:41Oh shit.
- 15:42So the housing market could have a wobble again
- 15:45because of what we're already not doing well.
- 15:49Oh God.
- 15:50Remember we were talking about the US?
- 15:52Oh true.
- 15:53Yeah, we're talking about the US.
- 15:54So yes, inflation might get a bit out of control.
- 15:56They'll increase interest rates
- 15:58and other countries might not have to do anything.
- 16:02And then that'll kind of keep their inflation under control
- 16:05but they'll have high interest rates.
- 16:06So there's lots of levers they could pull
- 16:09but it's all high inflation is never good.
- 16:13So you want it in that kind of two to three percent growth is good.
- 16:16You know, slow bit steady.
- 16:18The Curve Investing Club is the world's first digital
- 16:22investing club for women to build
- 16:24wealth a place where industry experts like Victoria
- 16:27and beginners join forces to share knowledge,
- 16:30swap ideas and make money through investing.
- 16:34If you're listening to this podcast,
- 16:36it's probably because you know you can't actually save
- 16:39your way to being a millionaire
- 16:40but you can actually invest your way there.
- 16:43And the whole reason that the Curve exists
- 16:46and the reason that we created the Investing Club
- 16:48is because we wholeheartedly believe
- 16:50that there is power in community
- 16:53and that the best investing ideas actually come when you collaborate
- 16:56and you share with each other.
- 16:58And so the whole point of the club is to bring your friends,
- 17:01your mum, random people you meet on the street
- 17:03and actually together have strength in numbers
- 17:05when it comes to investing for our future.
- 17:08So if you would like to find out more
- 17:09and how you can join the club,
- 17:11you can find details and the podcast show notes.
- 17:14And some other good news.
- 17:15So remember last Curve Weekly,
- 17:18we spoke about petrol prices and oil prices.
- 17:22Yes.
- 17:23Petrol's coming down.
- 17:24There's going to be less demand for oil
- 17:26because there's uncertainty in the world.
- 17:28You know, think of less things moving around the world,
- 17:31less products, less goods, less logistics, less oil.
- 17:36All of that, does that make sense?
- 17:38Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
- 17:41Sorry, no, there's just like a little flea,
- 17:42like not a flea, like a little fruit flying around my head.
- 17:45I was like, what are you doing?
- 17:47No, sorry.
- 17:48This looks so weird.
- 17:49It was like following me around my head.
- 17:51It's like, anyway.
- 17:54BP, BP is having an absolute shitter.
- 17:58BP shall exonmobile, she's wrong.
- 18:02Like the four biggest oil companies
- 18:04are reporting their results this week.
- 18:06And low oil prices, low petrol prices,
- 18:09are really bad for them.
- 18:11Shane and I, thank you for saying this.
- 18:15And hindsight, when we were talking about that,
- 18:18we should have taken a moment to be like, okay,
- 18:20there is this thing playing out in the world
- 18:24of oil prices going down, you know,
- 18:27who is this going to be positive and negative for?
- 18:28Like, this is how we should be thinking.
- 18:31So fast forward to this week.
- 18:32And it's like, oh, this is,
- 18:34this is who is going to be negatively impacted.
- 18:38BP, she's wrong, exonmobile, and she'll.
- 18:41But anyway, BP's been an absolute shitter for a while.
- 18:44It's had this active investor come on board.
- 18:47So this is when an investor comes in,
- 18:49buys a whole lot of shares,
- 18:50and just tries to do a good job
- 18:53at turning the business around essentially.
- 18:55So it would be like, let's just imagine,
- 18:58it would be like John Key deciding that he can do
- 19:01a much better job of the curve.
- 19:02So he tries to buy us.
- 19:04John Key.
- 19:05So he knows it's going to be easier
- 19:07under his inexperienced doctor.
- 19:10I don't know why that came to mind.
- 19:13But it would be like him being like,
- 19:14the curve girls don't know what they're doing.
- 19:16And then he comes in and he buys 50%.
- 19:19And then he's like, I want to get on the podcast actually.
- 19:21I'm going to be hosting a new episode every week.
- 19:23And we're going to be talking about you should be talking
- 19:26about politics.
- 19:27You should be, you know, because they own heaps of business,
- 19:30which means that they can dictate what the business does.
- 19:33And this is why when business is a private,
- 19:36it's much, much, much harder to do that.
- 19:39You know, because you can't control who buys your stock
- 19:42when you're a public company, exactly.
- 19:43So you can see this little person buying shares,
- 19:46getting bigger and bigger,
- 19:48and then you kind of don't notice them until they're a bit too big
- 19:50and you're like, oh gosh.
- 19:52Okay, now this person's bought a lot of stock.
- 19:54What are they going to do?
- 19:55You know, and then anyway, they can demand a seat on the board
- 19:58which can really bring about change.
- 19:59They could fire the seat on it.
- 20:01There's so many things you can do
- 20:02once you have a big enough she holding.
- 20:04This is also why companies wear the founder
- 20:10or the CEO own a lot of stock is actually quite good
- 20:15because there's no risk of someone doing this.
- 20:17Because they can veto the thing.
- 20:19So they're like, they're in control of the big decisions.
- 20:23Yeah, so if a founder owned like 10%, that's still good,
- 20:27but you know, there's still 90% of the shares there
- 20:30that someone could buy and kind of take control of over.
- 20:35Whereas if they own like 60%, they've got a majority.
- 20:38So this is why, yeah, then it's kind of different
- 20:41between public and private companies as well as that public.
- 20:44You are open to the public.
- 20:46Your shares are available with public.
- 20:48Anyway, so there is an active investor
- 20:50that's been buying shares and BP being like,
- 20:52you guys are doing an absolute shit job.
- 20:54I can do better.
- 20:55And people are getting kind of excited
- 20:57because this company and this investor
- 20:59have done this many times before
- 21:00and actually turned around businesses.
- 21:02So Elliott management.
- 21:04So they have a very, this is kind of their MO.
- 21:07Do you know what I mean?
- 21:08They are active investors.
- 21:09They buy large stakes.
- 21:10They turn them around.
- 21:11Oh, absolute Lancers.
- 21:13I'm sorry, but you must be so arrogant to be like,
- 21:17we're just going to keep buying you.
- 21:18We're going to keep buying you.
- 21:19And now we're going to control you.
- 21:21Yeah.
- 21:22And we're going to grow your business
- 21:25and then we're going to sell it.
- 21:26And then we're going to make lots of money.
- 21:28Yeah.
- 21:29Wow.
- 21:30It's kind of what investing is just not the activeness.
- 21:33Do you know what I mean?
- 21:33Like you're buying shares in a company
- 21:37with the expectation that just management will do a good job.
- 21:41Whereas this is like, yeah, we've got the expertise,
- 21:44we can do a bit of job.
- 21:45But it's like trying to buy yourself into a job
- 21:49is what you're doing.
- 21:50Yeah.
- 21:50And like publicly too.
- 21:53Yeah.
- 21:54Can you imagine, surely it's like 99% guys
- 21:57that do active investing in this way, right?
- 21:59Well, it's 99% guys in the finance industry.
- 22:02So yeah.
- 22:02But it's kind of like if you buy a small amount of shares
- 22:07and you invest in something, it doesn't quite do well.
- 22:09You can kind of be like, oops, sell them, move on.
- 22:12Whereas when you own like, oh, true.
- 22:14Yeah, it is very public.
- 22:16And also you're kind of in there.
- 22:19You know, you've got to make sure
- 22:20that you're picking the right companies to do this too,
- 22:22because how embarrassing if you fail.
- 22:25Exactly.
- 22:26Anyway, BP has reduced their share repurchase program.
- 22:31So they remember when a company has a share buyback,
- 22:35that's it buying its own shares.
- 22:37So it's like, you know what?
- 22:38Our business is amazing.
- 22:39It's going to do so well in the future.
- 22:40We want to own more of our own shares.
- 22:43So the opposite of that is when you're like, oh, actually,
- 22:48okay, we take us, take us now.
- 22:51Yeah.
- 22:51And so they're kind of reversing, reversing that,
- 22:54which is not a good sign.
- 22:56And it's all because they've realized
- 22:58they don't have the money on the balance sheet.
- 23:00So they don't have enough cash.
- 23:01This is the best news you've ever brought to the curve weekly.
- 23:04They're like, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit.
- 23:06And now they've got this act of investor.
- 23:07And then anyway, the CEO, everyone's waiting
- 23:10on the CEO to turn around the business.
- 23:12The cash is running out.
- 23:13You've now got this act of investor.
- 23:15So you're kind of, you're kind of running out of time, but.
- 23:19Oh, no, but hold on.
- 23:20Do we, we don't, do we want the sector to take over?
- 23:23Because I would quite like it to keep going down the toilet.
- 23:26Do we think the actor investor might do a good job?
- 23:28It depends what they're, what they're willing to change
- 23:30about the business.
- 23:31If it is to kind of accelerate its climate change
- 23:34and initiatives or introduce more green projects
- 23:39and things like that, then I'm all for it.
- 23:41If it is to keep going with producing as much oil
- 23:44as they can and everything over the world, then I'm not for it.
- 23:47Oh god, okay, watch this space.
- 23:49Interesting.
- 23:51I'm so happy with my outfit.
- 23:52Look, I know this is, I just, I literally just put them on
- 23:55just before this.
- 23:56And I just keep looking down at what I'm only thinking.
- 23:59Yeah.
- 24:00I look cool.
- 24:01I look cool to be at home doing a podcast on a Thursday night.
- 24:06Oh, I've wanted track pants like this for so long.
- 24:08I just love them.
- 24:09Are they any of those ones?
- 24:11Yeah.
- 24:11Yeah, nice.
- 24:12Yeah.
- 24:14Oh, yeah, yeah, I've got green ones.
- 24:16I've got the green ones.
- 24:17Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we should, we should do the same one time.
- 24:20We should actually do a series because we've got so many clothes
- 24:23that are similar.
- 24:24Oh, yeah.
- 24:25Oh, yeah.
- 24:26Oh, yeah.
- 24:27That's actually so funny.
- 24:29Yeah.
- 24:30Oh, sorry.
- 24:31I love it.
- 24:32Anything they don't get on board with.
- 24:34Yeah.
- 24:35Hey, speaking of flights, we're actually in a bit of an airline
- 24:38recession, which I am all here for, yep.
- 24:42What do you mean?
- 24:43Because I'm getting heaps of emails being like, we're on sale.
- 24:46We're on sale.
- 24:47We're on sale.
- 24:48Yeah.
- 24:49For all the airlines.
- 24:50Is that what this is about?
- 24:51Exactly.
- 24:52Exactly.
- 24:53Exactly.
- 24:54Exactly.
- 24:55Exactly.
- 24:56Yeah.
- 24:57So when we talk about inflation, there is, we talk about this measure called CPI, which
- 25:03is the consumer price index.
- 25:05And that's how it's measured.
- 25:06That's like the official measure.
- 25:07Within that, it tracks like all these different categories or industries.
- 25:12So it tracks like groceries, petrol, electricity, you know, like all these things that make
- 25:17up the overall inflation.
- 25:19One of those is, is airfares.
- 25:22And within all those categories, airfares are the only, one of the only categories that's
- 25:31dropped over the last 15 years.
- 25:34So everything else has gone up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up.
- 25:37And airlines is the only thing that's fallen.
- 25:40So this is what you, this is like what you used to talk about in our first ever curve events.
- 25:45And you'd be like structural growth industries.
- 25:48Yes.
- 25:49Structural growth trends.
- 25:50And I was always like, what are those words?
- 25:52Please make it more simple.
- 25:54But that is that, right?
- 25:55So it's like, the airline is heading in the same direction as the newspaper.
- 25:59We are trending out of fashion.
- 26:01Yeah.
- 26:02It's going, what is that when you go like this on a plane?
- 26:05Crashing?
- 26:06Crashing ending?
- 26:07Yeah.
- 26:08Crashing ending.
- 26:09Yeah.
- 26:10Diving.
- 26:11Yeah.
- 26:12It's like diving down.
- 26:13So over the last 15 years, like on average, the prices have gone up 50 percent, 5.0.
- 26:19You know, if we look at 15 years ago to now, CPI, that official measure has gone up by 50 percent.
- 26:26And airlines within that have gone down 4 percent.
- 26:29So.
- 26:30But hold on, is that the price of a flight or is that airlines as a company and the value
- 26:35of the business?
- 26:36Airfares.
- 26:37Airfares have gotten so much more expensive.
- 26:39Well, this is, I know, I was like reading this.
- 26:41I was like bullshit.
- 26:42Bullshit.
- 26:43That's not true at all.
- 26:44Because if you think about flying to the UK from New Zealand, it used to be like $1200
- 26:47return.
- 26:48And it's now like, God, you'd be lucky to get it for 5,000 return.
- 26:52So this is all because 15 years ago, we didn't have nearly as many kind of low cost carriers
- 26:59that we do.
- 27:01So even though there's still the expensive ones, which are probably still, you know, expensive
- 27:05and price, there's been a lot of a huge introduction in these low cost carriers.
- 27:10So that, like, brings, keeps bringing the price down.
- 27:13So basically there's, there's flights that are on the ground in terms of prices.
- 27:17So yes, there are expensive flights, but if you search and you find a 50 hour flight
- 27:22from New Zealand to London, you could get a cheaper one, whereas that's what's bringing
- 27:26there.
- 27:27Okay.
- 27:28Yeah.
- 27:29And so it's like competition is really, really good for consumers, for the airline industry,
- 27:34any industry competition is great because it keeps companies, you know, price competitive,
- 27:39which is awesome.
- 27:41But yeah, I was just like, so when we complain about these super expensive ear fears, if you
- 27:46actually bring up the facts, the prices have been coming down over the last 15 years.
- 27:51So we should shut up.
- 27:53I'm still not 100% convinced on that, but no, I know.
- 27:56Well, when you don't pay for your own flights, then you wouldn't know.
- 27:59That's true.
- 28:00That's true.
- 28:01That's true.
- 28:03Very true.
- 28:04Actually, actually, you're right, our flights to Queensland weren't that expensive.
- 28:07It was probably 450 return, which is super cheap, I reckon, for New Zealand, like domestic
- 28:13flights here are so expensive.
- 28:15So expensive.
- 28:16Well, it's also again, there's a lack of, there's a lack of competition, you know, like
- 28:22there's only two carriers in New Zealand.
- 28:25If you had got to the US, there's like hundreds, so you know, they have to be really, really
- 28:30price competitive.
- 28:31So it's like when we're talking about the big tech companies and how much they're like
- 28:35not leaving little players, you know, thrive and survive in terms of companies and like,
- 28:41you know, they're stifling the competition.
- 28:43It's all because of that.
- 28:44It means that there is just very little price competition, and therefore we just have to
- 28:50pay the higher prices.
- 28:51So it's got it.
- 28:53Mmm.
- 28:54It's like my fertility.
- 28:55It's like getting your eggs done, because there's like one or two places.
- 28:59So they're very, very expensive, but if you go to Athens, you know, it's Chabers
- 29:05Chat.
- 29:06So don't live in the arse end of the world of New Zealand.
- 29:11But we've got pretty waterfalls, you know, and rolling green hills.
- 29:16We do.
- 29:17I'm being a bitch.
- 29:18That we can frolic in because we won't be able to afford to fly anywhere.
- 29:23Yeah.
- 29:25Any last minute, you know, like things you'd like to just quickly whip on out, any quick
- 29:29ones?
- 29:30Yes.
- 29:31One key thing is it is reporting season again.
- 29:35Lots of companies reporting results, which means a stock market and you'll probably see
- 29:38share prices in your investments jumping around a bit.
- 29:42It's natural.
- 29:43It happens every, it happens four times a year with US companies.
- 29:48But one thing we are really seeing right now is the lack of confidence that management
- 29:54teams have in the future of their business.
- 29:57So we're seeing it come through with like general motors, airlines, Snapchat, UPS, the
- 30:04parcel service.
- 30:05We're seeing, yeah, a lot of companies in a lot of different industries coming out
- 30:09saying, well, the world is so uncertain, we can't actually give you an indication of
- 30:14what we think that our profits will be next quarter or next year.
- 30:18This spooks a lot of people when a company, you know, when companies consistently give
- 30:23regular guidance and regular visibility to investors of the future of their business.
- 30:27And now they can't.
- 30:29It's what you call when a company suspends guidance.
- 30:31So they just say, we're not going to say anything about the future.
- 30:35Oh, that's so interesting.
- 30:36It gives investors a real tough time of how they are supposed to pick.
- 30:41It's like someone saying, did you chat on your wife and you're like, no comment and
- 30:44everyone's like, oh, well, you definitely did.
- 30:47Yeah, whereas if it's like, did you chat on your wife, I may have, or even know, or
- 30:53know I didn't know, like if you're saying nothing, it's almost like you just expect
- 30:57worse case scenario, don't you?
- 30:59Yeah, but totally, yeah, exactly.
- 31:01It's, it is the worst.
- 31:02If you're suspending guidance, like everybody did drink, because nobody knew what the future
- 31:08was look like and what the stock market did then.
- 31:10So it is, yeah, very interesting to see.
- 31:14So the last thing just to mention, I know I've already said it once, but this is going
- 31:18to be really fun.
- 31:19And we did it like a couple of weeks ago, our workshop, surprisingly hilarious, wasn't
- 31:24it?
- 31:25It was so much fun.
- 31:26Yeah.
- 31:27And there was like hundreds of people there.
- 31:28Who knew?
- 31:29Investing could be fun.
- 31:30Well, it was just like, I don't know, at least surprise me.
- 31:32We did a lot of like research and delivering of news and info and like things that would
- 31:36help people invest in the current environment, because yeah, I mean, we saw such a spike
- 31:42in people wanting to join the club, which is epic.
- 31:44And then we saw this huge spike of people wanting to come to workshops.
- 31:47So we're going to do another one.
- 31:48So for anyone, even if you're new to investing, please come along.
- 31:52It'll be really fun and interesting.
- 31:53Yeah.
- 31:54And we've put the details in the show notes, the podcast.
- 31:58Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly.
- 32:00Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay up to date with all the many business
- 32:03stock market news.
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- 32:19And we hope you have a good week.
- 32:20And see you next Monday.
- 32:21Bye.
- 32:22Bye.
- 32:23See you next Tuesday.
- 32:24Wow.
- 32:25See you next Tuesday.
- 32:26I mean, Monday.
- 32:27No, actually though, new episodes out every Tuesday.
- 32:35Okay, quickly, the Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing, but we are
- 32:41not financial advisors.
- 32:43Our platform exists for educational purposes only and it doesn't provide personalized investing
- 32:47advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make an investment or
- 32:51financial decision.
- 32:52And always remember to do your own research before making any investment or financial
- 32:56decision.
- 32:57We're here for any knowledge and support you need, but the final call is always yours.
- 33:01And thanks for being here.
- 33:03You got this.
- 33:04Yeah, we know you got this.