Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/19/26: Trump Calls Off Iran Attack After Military Warning, MAGA Mom Says Trump Abandoned Her

Transcript

5/19/26: Trump Calls Off Iran Attack After Military Warning, MAGA Mom Says Trump Abandoned Her · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Where do we have Crystal?
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Speaker 4: Indeed we do.
0:38
Speaker 2: So Trump is saying he postponed imminent Aaran attacks. We
0:42
Speaker 2: will match what he's saying about it with some recent
0:45
Speaker 2: reporting and reality and where we may be headed in
0:48
Speaker 2: light of recent events. We're also going to dig into
0:50
Speaker 2: some new polling from the New York Times Sienna.
0:53
Speaker 4: This has been one of the.
0:54
Speaker 2: More i would say accurate polsters over recent years, and
0:57
Speaker 2: some truly dire numbers here. President Trump sinking to lows
1:02
Speaker 2: even in terms of the context of this term or
1:05
Speaker 2: the first term for his popularity. So looking pretty grim there.
1:09
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1:12
Speaker 2: create a new one point eight billion dollars slush fund
1:15
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Speaker 1: If you're able to. Let's go ahead and.
3:07
Speaker 3: Start with this imminent attack on Iran. Let's go and
3:10
Speaker 3: put this up here on this screen. This was from
3:13
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. I have been asked by the Emir of
3:15
Speaker 3: Qatar to hold off on our planned military attack of
3:19
Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow,
3:22
Speaker 3: in that serious negotiations are now taking place and that,
3:26
Speaker 3: in their opinion, as great leaders and allies, a deal
3:28
Speaker 3: will be made which will be very acceptable to the
3:30
Speaker 3: United States of America as well as all countries in
3:32
Speaker 3: the Middle East and beyond. This deal will include importantly
3:36
Speaker 3: no nuclear weapons for Iran. Based on my respect for
3:39
Speaker 3: the above mentioned leaders, I have instructed the Secretary of
3:41
Speaker 3: warpete Hegseth and the United States Military we will not
3:44
Speaker 3: be doing the schedule of attack of Iran tomorrow, but
3:46
Speaker 3: have further instructed them to be prepared to move forward
3:49
Speaker 3: with a large, full scale assault of Iran on a
3:51
Speaker 3: moment's notice. I can tell you that there were rumblings
3:54
Speaker 3: here in Washington from many people, including myself, that we
3:59
Speaker 3: had heard that we were going back to war with
4:01
Speaker 3: Iran as.
4:02
Speaker 1: Usual, all the caveats were there.
4:03
Speaker 3: That's why I didn't put out anything until it was
4:05
Speaker 3: confirmed and the caveat proved correct. I do think though,
4:09
Speaker 3: that one of the reasons why this was called off
4:11
Speaker 3: is in no way why Donald Trump is saying it.
4:14
Speaker 3: The truth is, the actual truth is about what's being
4:16
Speaker 3: said to Donald Trump inside of the White House situation
4:20
Speaker 3: room as he itches his way out of this escalate
4:23
Speaker 3: escalation trap because he's you know, he can escalate or
4:26
Speaker 3: he can pull back. And with the escalation, though, comes
4:29
Speaker 3: the continued risk of all of the munition's depletement, of
4:33
Speaker 3: all of the potential you know, airman getting shot down.
4:36
Speaker 3: And I actually think that that latter part from this
4:38
Speaker 3: New York Times report is really important. It fits with
4:41
Speaker 3: everything that we've talked about here. So let's go ahead
4:43
Speaker 3: and put a six please on the screen. So here
4:47
Speaker 3: is from a new excerpt from the New York Times.
4:50
Speaker 3: They say Iran has used the months long cease fire
4:53
Speaker 3: with the United States to dig out scores of bomb
4:55
Speaker 3: ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and, despite significant losses,
5:00
Speaker 3: adjust its tactics for any resumption of strikes. Now, they
5:04
Speaker 3: say many of Iran's ballistic missiles were deployed from deep
5:07
Speaker 3: underground caves and carved out granite mountains. As a result,
5:11
Speaker 3: the United States largely bombed the portals of the sites,
5:13
Speaker 3: collapsing and burying them but not destroying them. They have
5:17
Speaker 3: now dug out a significant number Iranian commanders, possibly with
5:21
Speaker 3: Russian help, studied the flight patterns of American fighter jets
5:24
Speaker 3: and bombers. The official warned that the downing of the
5:27
Speaker 3: F fifteen jet last month and the ground fire that
5:30
Speaker 3: struck in F thirty five revealed American flight tactics had
5:34
Speaker 3: become too predictable in ways that allowed Iran to defend
5:38
Speaker 3: them more capably. And most important, the military said that
5:41
Speaker 3: while five weeks of intensive bombing may have killed several
5:44
Speaker 3: Iranian leaders and commanders, the war has left a more hardened,
5:47
Speaker 3: resilient adversary. That is the actual fundamental truth that belies
5:52
Speaker 3: this entire thing. And we were hearing this all the
5:54
Speaker 3: way up until the end of the war. In fact,
5:57
Speaker 3: I spoke with a couple of very knowledgeable military sources
6:00
Speaker 3: and they pointed out a couple of things. Remember when
6:02
Speaker 3: Trump was going all out against who these last year,
6:05
Speaker 3: they were also able to clip in F thirty five.
6:07
Speaker 3: They shared some of the information with the Iranians. Because
6:10
Speaker 3: the United States was flying so many air missions. All
6:13
Speaker 3: you do is just sit there and study and study
6:15
Speaker 3: and study, and you learn exactly how to shoot them down.
6:18
Speaker 3: That's exactly how the F fifteen pilot, remember it was
6:20
Speaker 3: shot down. Let's remember that we also lost two air
6:23
Speaker 3: tank air refueling tankers over Iraq.
6:26
Speaker 1: The official story is.
6:27
Speaker 3: That, you know, something went wrong, not really what I heard,
6:30
Speaker 3: and eventually I think that we will get the full
6:32
Speaker 3: story behind that. There have been multiple, you know, close
6:34
Speaker 3: calls and incidents of you know, people who have been
6:37
Speaker 3: declaring may day and we'll do an emergency landing. Again,
6:40
Speaker 3: the military continues to claim that in almost all those
6:42
Speaker 3: cases they were accidents.
6:44
Speaker 1: Again, just not not the truth.
6:45
Speaker 3: Whenever we see people literally get shot down and some
6:48
Speaker 3: crazy rescue mission that has to be mounted.
6:50
Speaker 1: By the way, where are those pilots? How come we've
6:52
Speaker 1: never you know.
6:53
Speaker 4: The hero, I haven't heard anything else about that.
6:56
Speaker 1: I'ven't heard a word.
6:57
Speaker 3: I don't know just from my you know, we learned
6:59
Speaker 3: a lot about it's been lot and raid after that,
7:01
Speaker 3: you know, basically the names of the shooters and everybody
7:03
Speaker 3: within a year or something like that have the most
7:05
Speaker 3: high profile rate or the commander and all of that
7:08
Speaker 3: on this one.
7:09
Speaker 1: Nothing Yeah, absolutely nothing now so far.
7:12
Speaker 3: So I think that that part also coupled with some
7:14
Speaker 3: new reporting from the Wall Street Journal.
7:16
Speaker 1: We don't have it yet for.
7:17
Speaker 3: Our show, but they're basically saying that the golf allies,
7:20
Speaker 3: when they were asked off the record, they're like, dude,
7:21
Speaker 3: we have no idea what he's talking about. We didn't
7:23
Speaker 3: even know there was going to be an imminent attack
7:26
Speaker 3: that was planned, and there's no deal that is necessarily
7:28
Speaker 3: in the works as of last night, before any of
7:33
Speaker 3: this even happened.
7:34
Speaker 1: Here's where things were. A two. Let's put it up here.
7:37
Speaker 3: This was the last official dispatch from Barackravied. Iran's new
7:41
Speaker 3: offer is insufficient risks war resumption. That was the latest
7:46
Speaker 3: offer that was made behind the scenes. And at a
7:49
Speaker 3: certain point, don't we all just need to stop denying
7:52
Speaker 3: the reality of these fake transmissions which are allegedly happening
7:57
Speaker 3: behind the scenes. Like I actually think almost all of
8:00
Speaker 3: this is playing out in public. From what I understand,
8:02
Speaker 3: the Iranians are so bewildered by the constant claims of
8:06
Speaker 3: them making offers that they haven't made, that many of
8:09
Speaker 3: the details of their offers and proposals get leaked almost immediately,
8:13
Speaker 3: just to signposts of this is where we actually are
8:17
Speaker 3: to stop the United States or Trump from trying to
8:20
Speaker 3: twist from where things actually So that's where things stand.
8:23
Speaker 3: Whether where we're going to attack, we didn't attack. He
8:25
Speaker 3: claims it was a golf golf says, I don't know
8:26
Speaker 3: what you're talking about. The Iranians say the last thing
8:29
Speaker 3: that they transmitted it is basically where they were.
8:31
Speaker 1: I think that he basically.
8:33
Speaker 3: Got scared of what it would look like, but that
8:35
Speaker 3: does not mean that it will actually be forestalled. The
8:39
Speaker 3: other option is, since it is Taco Tuesday after all,
8:42
Speaker 3: is that we wait until oh, I don't know, Friday,
8:44
Speaker 3: whenever all of the markets close, and that's when things
8:47
Speaker 3: start to resume.
8:48
Speaker 5: Yeah.
8:48
Speaker 2: Well, I mean that's the issue, is that the fundamental
8:51
Speaker 2: dynamics have not changed. The status quo is a disaster.
8:55
Speaker 2: Iran's oil wells are not going to explode. We cannot
8:59
Speaker 2: withstand and the global economy cannot withstand the continued closure
9:02
Speaker 2: of the Strait of Hormouse. So that the status quo
9:06
Speaker 2: is not sustainable coming to some sort of a deal.
9:08
Speaker 4: Trump basically having to take.
9:10
Speaker 2: And hold an l does it look like something he
9:12
Speaker 2: is ready to do or something that he is constitutionally
9:15
Speaker 2: capable of doing, even though that is unfortunately the best
9:19
Speaker 2: option that is available to him at this point. You
9:22
Speaker 2: can see from the bullets that have been released from
9:24
Speaker 2: the US and from the bullets that have been released
9:27
Speaker 2: by the Ibranians, in terms of their negotiating positions, they
9:30
Speaker 2: don't have agreement on a single point, and they're light
9:33
Speaker 2: years away from each other on basically every really consequential point,
9:37
Speaker 2: so that seems really unlikely. And then you've got the
9:40
Speaker 2: other possibility, which is resumption of war, which yesterday looked
9:44
Speaker 2: very much like we were headed in that direction imminently
9:48
Speaker 2: before Trump put out this post. And I absolutely agree
9:52
Speaker 2: that what looks like happened here was not our allies
9:55
Speaker 2: coming in and being like, sir, we're so close to
9:57
Speaker 2: a deal, let's just continue negotiating. As as indicated by
10:01
Speaker 2: the fact they told the Wall Street Journal, we literally
10:03
Speaker 2: have no idea what he's talking about here, that he
10:06
Speaker 2: got more information from the military. They insisted to him.
10:10
Speaker 2: This is not going to go well for you. And
10:13
Speaker 2: I also think it's really know whether you're talking about
10:15
Speaker 2: that the whole pilot rescue thing and whatever happened there,
10:18
Speaker 2: and we still really don't know why they were there
10:21
Speaker 2: over Iranian territory to begin with, what the actual story
10:24
Speaker 2: is of what was happening, whether there were other plans
10:27
Speaker 2: that were laid there that they had to abandon or aboard.
10:31
Speaker 2: But the fact remains that after that rescue mission, that
10:35
Speaker 2: was basically the end of the hust of the active
10:39
Speaker 2: hostilities against run, of the bombing campaign against Iran. And
10:44
Speaker 2: I maintain that it's because whatever went down there, it
10:47
Speaker 2: was a wake up call for Trump of how much
10:50
Speaker 2: of a disaster further bombing campaigns and certainly something like
10:54
Speaker 2: a ground invasion, some sort of escalatory move could ultimately
10:58
Speaker 2: be for the US. So this reporting for the New
11:01
Speaker 2: York Times that our own military is saying to him, Look,
11:05
Speaker 2: these guys have learned, they will be It won't be
11:08
Speaker 2: like before they will be able to continue to strike.
11:11
Speaker 2: They have most of their missile capabilities remaining, and they
11:14
Speaker 2: have gotten smarter about how to target our air assets.
11:18
Speaker 2: That to me lines up with the sequence of events
11:20
Speaker 2: that we have ultimately seen and not whatever he says
11:23
Speaker 2: here about oh it was our allies that really bag
11:25
Speaker 2: doesn't so I gave in.
11:29
Speaker 4: The other thing to say, though, is.
11:30
Speaker 2: That that doesn't mean that we are out of the woods,
11:35
Speaker 2: because the options on the table are all still impossible,
11:38
Speaker 2: and he's still going to have the Israelis pushing, he's
11:40
Speaker 2: still going to have the Neo cons pushing, and he's
11:42
Speaker 2: still going to have his own ego to protect. So
11:45
Speaker 2: even if the chances of achieving something on the battlefield
11:49
Speaker 2: that they you know, with options that have failed in
11:52
Speaker 2: the past, even if the chances of achieving something on
11:54
Speaker 2: the battlefield.
11:55
Speaker 4: Are incredibly incredibly.
11:58
Speaker 2: Slim, that in his mind may be a better bet
12:02
Speaker 2: than accepting the humiliation that would be required to do
12:05
Speaker 2: the deal that's on the table right now.
12:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and if you see where Trump is,
12:09
Speaker 3: let's put a three for example, this is what type
12:12
Speaker 3: of stuff he was saying yesterday. If Iran surrenders, admits
12:15
Speaker 3: their navy is gone, resting at the bottom of the sea,
12:17
Speaker 3: their air force is no longer with us, their entire
12:19
Speaker 3: military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high,
12:23
Speaker 3: each shouting I surrender, I surrender all wildly waving the
12:25
Speaker 3: representative white flag, and if their entire remaining leadership signs
12:28
Speaker 3: all documents of surrender and admit their defeat to the
12:31
Speaker 3: great power and force of the Magnificent USA. The New
12:34
Speaker 3: York Times, a China Street Journal, Corrupt and now a
12:36
Speaker 3: relevant CNN, and all members of the fake news media
12:39
Speaker 3: will headline that Iran had a masterful and brilliant victory
12:42
Speaker 3: over the United States of America.
12:44
Speaker 1: It wasn't even close.
12:45
Speaker 3: The Democrats and media have totally lost their way. They
12:48
Speaker 3: have absolutely gone crazy. But I actually think this is
12:52
Speaker 3: a very important insight because it fits with the Trump
12:56
Speaker 3: interview out of the China summit, which he did with
12:59
Speaker 3: Fox News, where he basically said, look, I don't care
13:02
Speaker 3: that much about the I don't care that much about
13:05
Speaker 3: the nuclear issue, but at this point the media, you know,
13:08
Speaker 3: I need to show the media that I actually want
13:11
Speaker 3: and I'm paraphrasing obviously. Yeah, that was the obvious insight
13:14
Speaker 3: into his psychology, and I think it's very important. He
13:18
Speaker 3: is just like LBJ. He is just like any of
13:20
Speaker 3: these others. I don't want to be the first American
13:23
Speaker 3: president to lose a damn war. He was, of course,
13:26
Speaker 3: has to save face of some kind, and he's drawn
13:29
Speaker 3: and put himself.
13:30
Speaker 1: Think about already where we are.
13:32
Speaker 3: On day one of the war, it was we have
13:35
Speaker 3: killed the Iatola, you need to rise up and take
13:38
Speaker 3: back your country. And then it started moving, you know more,
13:42
Speaker 3: and then a total and complete surrender. We want regime change.
13:45
Speaker 3: That's what we want, unconditional surrender. They must give up
13:49
Speaker 3: all of their nuclear program to then we're negotiating literally with.
13:53
Speaker 1: The same scions of the regime.
13:54
Speaker 3: We have the Iatola who he replaced with the son
13:58
Speaker 3: of the murdered Ietel, who we turned into a martyr,
14:01
Speaker 3: and then, as they point out in the New York
14:03
Speaker 3: Times story, a more resilient command. It actually turns out
14:07
Speaker 3: we killed all the old people who were kind of
14:09
Speaker 3: dotting in a little bit more risk averse, and that
14:11
Speaker 3: the new people they don't even want this ceasefire. Many
14:14
Speaker 3: of the senior members of the IRGC they want to
14:16
Speaker 3: go back to war. That's why a lot of there's
14:17
Speaker 3: been Remember all those miscommunications where the diplomats would say
14:21
Speaker 3: one thing, the IRGC is like, nope, that's not true.
14:23
Speaker 3: They are not giving up to control over the Straits
14:26
Speaker 3: of Horror Moves. They are definitely not going to give
14:27
Speaker 3: in on a lot of the things that the administration wants,
14:30
Speaker 3: you know, in terms of sanctions relief. Don't forget yesterday
14:34
Speaker 3: Iran launched a new portal for bitcoin transaction on the
14:37
Speaker 3: Straits of horn Moves with a toll system and a
14:40
Speaker 3: way to make payment. We don't yet know how many
14:42
Speaker 3: people are taking advantage of that. And all the while,
14:45
Speaker 3: you know, the US gas price continues to tick up
14:48
Speaker 3: or at four point fifty three a gallon, five sixty
14:51
Speaker 3: five a gallon in terms of diesel, and it's just
14:53
Speaker 3: it's not going anywhere as long as the strait remains closed,
14:58
Speaker 3: and especially with all these will they won't they in
15:01
Speaker 3: terms of the oil markets that will swing things plus
15:05
Speaker 3: or minus five percent. We are still up eighty percent
15:07
Speaker 3: from when the war began. That's the flat truth. There's
15:10
Speaker 3: just no getting out of it.
15:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's absolutely right.
15:12
Speaker 2: And let's put a five up on the screen because
15:14
Speaker 2: I think this is very This is another indication of
15:18
Speaker 2: the failure of our strategy.
15:20
Speaker 4: So this is Charger.
15:21
Speaker 2: Secretary Scott Bessett saying the US Churcher is issuing a
15:24
Speaker 2: temporary thirty day general license to provide the most vulnerable
15:27
Speaker 2: nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently
15:32
Speaker 2: stranded at sea. This extension will provide additional flexibility, will
15:36
Speaker 2: work with these nations provide specific licenses as needed. This
15:39
Speaker 2: general license will help stabilize the physical crude market ensure
15:42
Speaker 2: oil reaches the most energy vulnerable countries. Will also help
15:45
Speaker 2: reroot existing supply to countries most in need by reducing
15:48
Speaker 2: China's ability to stockpile discounted oil.
15:52
Speaker 4: What does this tell you?
15:53
Speaker 2: It tells you that the notion that our blockade, of
15:58
Speaker 2: the blockade in the Strait of forourmood, what put more
16:01
Speaker 2: pressure on Iran than it put on us and the
16:04
Speaker 2: rest of the world, was not true. We are already
16:08
Speaker 2: trying to find little ways to try to control the
16:11
Speaker 2: price of oil so it doesn't get even more out
16:14
Speaker 2: of control because we cannot take the pain. When you
16:17
Speaker 2: say we're issuing, you know, these waivers to lift the
16:20
Speaker 2: sanctions in these limited ways, what you're doing is adding
16:24
Speaker 2: more oil into the market. It's a global market, that is.
16:28
Speaker 2: The idea is to try to keep the price under control. Now,
16:31
Speaker 2: I don't know if this will be sufficient to keep
16:34
Speaker 2: things from continuing to spiral as it increasingly becomes clear
16:37
Speaker 2: we're nowhere close to making any sort of a deal.
16:40
Speaker 2: But to me, it's an indication that this is not
16:43
Speaker 2: going at all the way that Trump had been told
16:47
Speaker 2: by the neocons it would go, that Iran would collapse,
16:50
Speaker 2: that this would be devastating economically for them. Instead, we're
16:53
Speaker 2: the ones who were already showing weakness and vulnerability as
16:57
Speaker 2: a result of.
16:58
Speaker 4: Our own strategy here.
16:59
Speaker 2: And then, you know, we really need to do some
17:02
Speaker 2: segments on what's going on with Russia and Ukraine because
17:04
Speaker 2: there have been a lot of changes there in that war,
17:07
Speaker 2: a lot of you know, changes in the dynamics in
17:09
Speaker 2: that war. But you know, Ukraine has actually been holding
17:12
Speaker 2: the front line and making things difficult for Russia because
17:17
Speaker 2: of the advent of drones, and their effective use of
17:19
Speaker 2: drones has made it so they've been able to compensate
17:22
Speaker 2: somewhat for the fact that they don't have sufficient manpower.
17:25
Speaker 2: So that has made things more difficult for Russia to
17:28
Speaker 2: be able to succeed, you know, in the in the
17:30
Speaker 2: way that they want to and score an outright victory.
17:32
Speaker 2: At the same time, because of our war on a run.
17:36
Speaker 2: Russia is now making more money, which is helping to
17:38
Speaker 2: stabilize them because they're able to sell their oil at
17:42
Speaker 2: a premium. So this has been very beneficial to them
17:44
Speaker 2: in terms of their economy and their war effort. So,
17:47
Speaker 2: you know, this being just one more indication of the
17:50
Speaker 2: way that this has not gone at all the way
17:53
Speaker 2: that Trump imagined that it might and the way that
17:55
Speaker 2: he was sold on from the neo conso or interesting.
17:58
Speaker 1: That's very important.
17:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're one of these neocons who supports the
18:02
Speaker 3: war with Iran, you just bailed out Russia. You gave
18:04
Speaker 3: them a huge license. They're going to print billions off
18:09
Speaker 3: of these transactions. India, I'm sure we'll be buying it tomorrow,
18:12
Speaker 3: you know, because a lot of it is at sea,
18:14
Speaker 3: which has already been sanctioned, and it could just sail
18:16
Speaker 3: to port. They can offload, they can sell, and nobody
18:18
Speaker 3: has to worry about any US sanctions. So look, I
18:21
Speaker 3: mean that's where things stand as of right now with Iran.
18:24
Speaker 3: There doesn't seem to be any counter proposal, any reality
18:28
Speaker 3: of some sort of a deal. I did just see
18:31
Speaker 3: some Israeli report that maybe it could all be a
18:35
Speaker 3: it could all be a you know, a distraction and
18:38
Speaker 3: the strikes would continue. I wouldn't put it past them, sure.
18:40
Speaker 3: I just think though that when you fit it with
18:43
Speaker 3: the market, the fact is you have this taco Tuesday,
18:47
Speaker 3: which you know it's been a long, long held strategy,
18:51
Speaker 3: especially because the market went down yesterday, oil was up
18:54
Speaker 3: a little bit. So Trump reacts, then he has a
18:58
Speaker 3: couple of days. Then there could be potential tantrum on Friday,
19:02
Speaker 3: and then we're right back to where we were, and
19:04
Speaker 3: maybe he'll say it was a one time strike and
19:06
Speaker 3: that then they need to come to the table. Who
19:09
Speaker 3: knows whether any of that is true, but it does fit,
19:11
Speaker 3: by the way, with the report that we gave yesterday,
19:14
Speaker 3: really validates Treeta Parsi him saying, look, iron fully believed
19:17
Speaker 3: the war is going back on in forty eight hours,
19:19
Speaker 3: and they were right at least from Trump's oone psychology.
19:22
Speaker 1: That's what we know so far. Okay, let's get to Pollie.
19:27
Speaker 2: So Emily takes a lot of calls through the radio
19:30
Speaker 2: show that she does, and she's always flagging for us
19:32
Speaker 2: some of the interesting comments there. She's been noting recently
19:35
Speaker 2: a lot of conservative Republican triple Trump voters who are
19:39
Speaker 2: calling in and saying they are very upset. They feel,
19:42
Speaker 2: in the words of this one woman who called in yesterday,
19:45
Speaker 2: betrayed by Trump. Let's go ahead and take a listen
19:47
Speaker 2: to what one caller had to say.
19:49
Speaker 5: Heading down to Janet in Long Island, you're on the making, Kelly,
19:51
Speaker 5: wrap up, show what's on your mind.
19:54
Speaker 6: I'm still abandoned. I'm a Trump diehard. I'm sixty eight,
19:57
Speaker 6: my husband sixty nine. We're never going to stop work.
20:00
Speaker 6: He's a contract electrician. We built our house. We're gonna
20:03
Speaker 6: have to move out of dick Phill' because the taxes
20:05
Speaker 6: of sixteen thousand dollars. I don't want to quit working
20:07
Speaker 6: because Medicare is too much money, so I get benefits
20:10
Speaker 6: where I work. He has abandoned the middle class. He
20:13
Speaker 6: has to show us that all those people on barstools
20:16
Speaker 6: across America, you know, hard working construction guys, plumbers, the
20:21
Speaker 6: people that stood up to him when it wasn't popular
20:23
Speaker 6: to stand up for him. He needs to help us,
20:26
Speaker 6: give us back black tax anything, just make our life easier.
20:32
Speaker 5: And Janet, when did you start to feel this way?
20:34
Speaker 5: Was it into the Iran War? As gas prices were spiking.
20:38
Speaker 6: You know what, I don't uh, I just kept waiting
20:42
Speaker 6: and waiting for him to do stuff for us. I
20:45
Speaker 6: feel like he's listening to the wrong people. And yeah,
20:48
Speaker 6: when he started that war, I didn't sign up for it.
20:51
Speaker 6: When I had my first boy. I'm a girl. I'm
20:53
Speaker 6: one of five girls. And when I had my son,
20:56
Speaker 6: the first thing I stopped my head if it said,
20:57
Speaker 6: oh my god, he could be drafted. I don't want
20:59
Speaker 6: my children or my friend's children dying in a war
21:02
Speaker 6: that has nothing to do with us. It's time to
21:04
Speaker 6: give back to the American people that stood up for
21:07
Speaker 6: Trump when nobody stood up for Trump when he came
21:09
Speaker 6: down that escalata when you shouted. He has my voice.
21:12
Speaker 6: He knows exactly how I feel. But he's abandoned us.
21:16
Speaker 5: And I have one more question. Are you sort of
21:20
Speaker 5: a Republican conservative? Are you independent who just really likes Trump?
21:24
Speaker 1: Where do you you know?
21:25
Speaker 5: Where do you sort of find yourself on the political spectrum?
21:28
Speaker 6: I would say I like truth. Right now, I'm a
21:32
Speaker 6: registered Republican Conservative. I don't like, uh, all those all
21:38
Speaker 6: those riots in all parts of the country. I don't
21:41
Speaker 6: like the you know how lacks the war, the the
21:45
Speaker 6: what would you call it legal system is I want
21:48
Speaker 6: rules and regulations because without them there is chaos. And
21:51
Speaker 6: I want to see that given to the people that
21:54
Speaker 6: stood up to him forever. And I don't want a war.
21:56
Speaker 6: I don't want my money going towards the war. I
21:58
Speaker 6: don't want me having to pay the Yeah, so somebody,
22:01
Speaker 6: you know, and Iran, I don't know what it has
22:04
Speaker 6: to do with American people. It's frustrated, yep. I don't
22:07
Speaker 6: want to give up on him. I think he's the
22:10
Speaker 6: best thing that ever happened to America. But I'm starting
22:13
Speaker 6: to get really sad and betrayed.
22:16
Speaker 2: Very yeah, very interesting to hear that. She says, she
22:19
Speaker 2: feels abandoned, she feels betrayed. She still she says, at
22:23
Speaker 2: one point, I love him, She says, I think he's
22:25
Speaker 2: the best thing that everr ab ine America. And yet
22:27
Speaker 2: she's also watching, you know, one of her friends have
22:29
Speaker 2: a baby be like, oh my god, I don't want
22:31
Speaker 2: this baby boy to be drafted. I don't know why
22:34
Speaker 2: we're in this war with a run. I don't he's
22:36
Speaker 2: not doing anything for the people that that helps you
22:39
Speaker 2: elect him. So pretty interesting to see someone, even someone
22:43
Speaker 2: who clearly like was committed to him, feeling this kind
22:47
Speaker 2: of way and calling into express.
22:48
Speaker 3: So when I see a thirty five year old who's like,
22:50
Speaker 3: I've broken with Trump, I'm like, yeah, we'll see, right,
22:52
Speaker 3: Because for me, it's what we were talking about yesterday
22:55
Speaker 3: with the Thomas Massey vote.
22:57
Speaker 1: This is the bedrock of the Republican coalition.
23:00
Speaker 3: Like Boomer Grandma's people like this or I love they
23:03
Speaker 3: just sit there and are sitting a trance when they
23:05
Speaker 3: watch Jesse Waters on the fuck on Fox News. Literally,
23:09
Speaker 3: like you know, remember back in the nineties when like
23:12
Speaker 3: Republican women were putting televisions in the kitchen so they
23:15
Speaker 3: could watch Fox News, like so they could never This
23:17
Speaker 3: is a serious thing. I'm not kidding and like that,
23:20
Speaker 3: that level of devotion to Donald Trump, that's why I was.
23:24
Speaker 3: I never bet against his control over the Republican Party.
23:27
Speaker 3: Like it's not it's beyond ideological, it's beyond policy, Like
23:31
Speaker 3: it's genuinely like a cult of personality. And so for them,
23:36
Speaker 3: I never really expected much to shake. But this is
23:38
Speaker 3: interesting that Look, it's a single caller, single data point,
23:41
Speaker 3: but you get the most noteworthy part.
23:44
Speaker 4: You get the feeling he could win Janet back one hundred.
23:47
Speaker 4: She's looking for anything.
23:48
Speaker 2: You know, if he gets out of the war and
23:50
Speaker 2: he sells her some deal on Fox News, she'll be like, see,
23:53
Speaker 2: I was right about him.
23:54
Speaker 4: He's still the greatest thing that I wrapped in America.
23:56
Speaker 4: Janet is still winnable for you.
23:58
Speaker 7: President Trump, right right, got to get out of the war,
24:00
Speaker 7: so yeah, win back to it. I do think that,
24:03
Speaker 7: you know, if cracks like that are where things begin,
24:06
Speaker 7: that's where things actually began to get interesting, because that's
24:10
Speaker 7: somebody who's like, I'm very dissatisfied with the way the administration.
24:14
Speaker 7: It also demonstrates a lot of people say, oh, nobody's
24:16
Speaker 7: paying attention.
24:17
Speaker 1: To the Iran war.
24:18
Speaker 3: Not true that comment about being drafted. There's probably a
24:20
Speaker 3: lot of mothers around America who think that way. Especially
24:23
Speaker 3: by the way, Thomas Massey's opponent just supported a national draft.
24:26
Speaker 3: In case you're wondering for who's true Maga actually in
24:30
Speaker 3: this race and not the guy who's like, hey, why
24:32
Speaker 3: are we in this stupid war in the first place.
24:34
Speaker 3: So I think that stuff really matters. I also think
24:37
Speaker 3: that her point around feeling abandoned, you know, the barstools.
24:41
Speaker 3: She's like the people who have always defended you. I mean,
24:44
Speaker 3: one of the things that was the biggest talking points
24:46
Speaker 3: amongst the people remember below one hundred thousand dollars who
24:49
Speaker 3: voted Republican, was the economy was better under Donald Trump.
24:52
Speaker 3: So when you have a much worse economy, or definitely
24:55
Speaker 3: you have like very very high gas prices, high inflation,
24:58
Speaker 3: that is, you know, yours is the core argument that
25:02
Speaker 3: a lot of these people would make, and I heard
25:04
Speaker 3: it all the time.
25:05
Speaker 1: It was about screwing liberals. It's like, okay, he did that.
25:08
Speaker 3: But the second part was cost of living, and actually
25:11
Speaker 3: a third part was general lack of chaos around the world.
25:15
Speaker 3: Like it's true there were no new major conflicts that
25:19
Speaker 3: erupted under Donald Trump's first presidency. Then Biden came in,
25:22
Speaker 3: there were two massive geopolitical earth shaking events, and then
25:25
Speaker 3: when Trump came in, not only are those two still going,
25:28
Speaker 3: but he did a third by choice for literally no
25:31
Speaker 3: reason whatsoever. So that does begin to pierce the veil
25:35
Speaker 3: of a lot of the majesty, you know, stuff around
25:38
Speaker 3: the first term that people built up in their hands,
25:40
Speaker 3: especially under the chaos of Bio.
25:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, long Island is where she lives.
25:43
Speaker 1: Oh, that is like Maga Town.
25:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's.
25:45
Speaker 2: Also place that, you know, relatively high cost of living.
25:48
Speaker 2: So she's certainly going to be feeling the crunch. And
25:51
Speaker 2: the gas prices are quite high there, et cetera. So
25:53
Speaker 2: in any case, let's take a look at the numbers
25:56
Speaker 2: that back up some of what Janet is seeing and
25:59
Speaker 2: feeling out there. Let's put this up on the screen.
26:02
Speaker 2: This one the New York Times Siena. Their polling has
26:04
Speaker 2: been relatively predictive in the past. For example, they were
26:07
Speaker 2: some of the first polls that picked up on how
26:09
Speaker 2: much Latinos and even some Black Americans were shifting towards
26:14
Speaker 2: Trump in the run up to twenty twenty four. In
26:16
Speaker 2: any case, his approval is thinking dramatically here. And the
26:21
Speaker 2: first question we've got up on the screen is do
26:23
Speaker 2: you think Trump's decision to go to war with Iran
26:25
Speaker 2: was the right decision or the wrong decision? Thirty percent
26:30
Speaker 2: say it was the right decision, sixty four percent say
26:34
Speaker 2: it was the wrong decision. Two thirds of Americans. And
26:38
Speaker 2: let me tell you something, folks, this is very different
26:41
Speaker 2: from previous wars. Typically, Americans get right on board with
26:44
Speaker 2: the latest wars that they are being sold. This is very,
26:48
Speaker 2: very different. The Iraq war favorability numbers at this point
26:52
Speaker 2: in the war were sky high. There was a loud,
26:55
Speaker 2: vocal anti war minority, but it was a decided minority
26:58
Speaker 2: of the country. Just to keep this up with Democrats
27:00
Speaker 2: is just basically unanimous. That probably won't surprise you. Only
27:03
Speaker 2: five percent say that it was the right decision. Ninety
27:05
Speaker 2: three percent say it was the wrong decision.
27:07
Speaker 4: Look at the.
27:08
Speaker 2: Numbers though with Independence, only twenty one percent of Independence
27:12
Speaker 2: say it was the right decision. Seventy three percent of
27:16
Speaker 2: Independence say this was the wrong decision. And with Republicans
27:20
Speaker 2: they overwhelmingly support it. Seventy percent are on board. But
27:23
Speaker 2: you know, for Trump with Republicans to have twenty two
27:26
Speaker 2: percent saying it was the wrong decision, that is a
27:29
Speaker 2: notable minority. That's not nothing normally with his decisions among Republicans,
27:34
Speaker 2: who at this point, if you're a Republican, you are
27:35
Speaker 2: a maga Republican. Normally, when he makes the decision, basically
27:40
Speaker 2: everybody gets on board within on the Republican camp. So
27:42
Speaker 2: that is you know, a notable minority there of the
27:45
Speaker 2: coalition that is unhappy with this.
27:47
Speaker 4: Let's go and put B two up on the screen.
27:49
Speaker 2: We can see some of the numbers inside of this poll.
27:52
Speaker 2: So Trump's approval rating now is that thirty seven percent.
27:57
Speaker 2: That is a decline of three points from the previous poll,
28:00
Speaker 2: and it is the lowest approval rating that this particular
28:04
Speaker 2: poll has found for him in either term, So hitting
28:07
Speaker 2: a new record low for him.
28:10
Speaker 4: Also very noteworthy. You can look on the right side
28:12
Speaker 4: of the screen.
28:12
Speaker 2: You've got his net approval on key issues underwater on
28:15
Speaker 2: everything underwater, fifteen points on immigration, thirty one points on
28:20
Speaker 2: the economy, thirty one points on what they describe as
28:23
Speaker 2: the Israel Palestinian conflict, thirty two points underwater on cost
28:27
Speaker 2: of living, and thirty four points underwater on his handling
28:31
Speaker 2: of the war in Iran. And then also very noteworthy,
28:34
Speaker 2: as we had into the midterms, let's take a look
28:36
Speaker 2: at the congressional generic ballot here, it has Democrats up
28:40
Speaker 2: by eleven points. And if you narrow the field, if
28:45
Speaker 2: you narrow the the universe of voters here to those
28:49
Speaker 2: who are most likely to vote in the fall, the
28:51
Speaker 2: Democratic lead expands to fourteen points. Now that would be
28:56
Speaker 2: a greater we've seen a lot of shll ackings in
28:59
Speaker 2: midterm both for Democrats and Republicans over the course of
29:02
Speaker 2: our you know, adulthood and covering politics from twenty ten
29:07
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen was obviously big win for Democrats. We have
29:10
Speaker 2: never seen an eleven or certainly a fourteen point landslide.
29:15
Speaker 2: That would be extraordinary even in modern terms where we
29:19
Speaker 2: have these big wave elections. And it does line up
29:22
Speaker 2: with what we're seeing in special elections across the country
29:26
Speaker 2: and with the number of Democrats who are turning up
29:28
Speaker 2: to vote in places like Georgia and even places like Texas.
29:31
Speaker 2: So you know, that's why I think it could be credible,
29:35
Speaker 2: even though the numbers are quite extraordinary.
29:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, sticking with all these polls we talked
29:40
Speaker 3: about D plus eleven, it would be insane.
29:42
Speaker 1: That's two thousand and eight levels of madness.
29:44
Speaker 3: Where Democratic senators are in Louisiana and it can't happen.
29:50
Speaker 1: It happened in my lifetime.
29:51
Speaker 2: There's pulling that has the it's one of the Vinman
29:55
Speaker 2: brothers who's running for Senate in Florida. There's pulling that
29:58
Speaker 2: has him up. There's polling that has David Zalli is
30:00
Speaker 2: a former. Actually it was a Republican member of Congress.
30:02
Speaker 2: We switched to the Democratic Party. He's running for governor.
30:06
Speaker 2: There's pulling that has him up in Florida right now.
30:08
Speaker 2: If you're talking about D plus eleven or D plus fourteen,
30:11
Speaker 2: those are the sort of things that are actually in.
30:13
Speaker 3: Play exactly, And that's why you can't rule any of
30:15
Speaker 3: this stuff out, like back in eight where he had
30:17
Speaker 3: insane outcomes, where it was a little different because it
30:20
Speaker 3: was before the whole blue is during the blue dog
30:23
Speaker 3: Democrat era, but there were also people like Tom Perriello
30:26
Speaker 3: and others they had no business who were winning and
30:29
Speaker 3: becoming Democrats. Now also in twenty ten, there are a
30:32
Speaker 3: lot of Republicans who had no business winning either, but
30:34
Speaker 3: were lifted because of the tide of a lot of
30:37
Speaker 3: the anti Obama sentiment. So that's what it really looks
30:40
Speaker 3: like in a landslide, like there will be wins in
30:43
Speaker 3: places that we can't even predict here on the show.
30:46
Speaker 1: That's where everything really is on the table.
30:48
Speaker 3: And I think if we put what is it B
30:51
Speaker 3: three up here on the screen just to reiterate, you know, yeah,
30:53
Speaker 3: we're talking about is I think that this minus thirty
30:57
Speaker 3: one on the economy is the central Like at the
31:01
Speaker 3: end of the day, that is the number one thing
31:04
Speaker 3: that people will be thinking about, on top of cost
31:07
Speaker 3: of living. Now last time, the only counter to what
31:10
Speaker 3: I say is that this was similar to some of
31:12
Speaker 3: the numbers that Biden had.
31:14
Speaker 4: It's actually lower that cost of living minus forty two.
31:16
Speaker 1: The thing is is that it was similar to a Biden.
31:18
Speaker 3: Remember, people were not happy with Biden over the economy,
31:22
Speaker 3: but Biden got saved by the Supreme Court in twenty
31:26
Speaker 3: twenty two on Roe versus Waight. So that is the
31:29
Speaker 3: last that it's possible to have some sort of black
31:33
Speaker 3: Swan style event.
31:34
Speaker 1: We can't predict it. I don't really know what it
31:36
Speaker 1: would be.
31:37
Speaker 3: Maybe like a great victory quote unquote in Iran celebration
31:42
Speaker 3: and gas goes down by two dollars ago.
31:45
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think this is possible at all.
31:46
Speaker 4: I'm just even I don't think it's going to rescue him.
31:48
Speaker 4: I don't at this point.
31:49
Speaker 1: I'm not sure.
31:50
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it would be better obviously if
31:52
Speaker 3: it were all the way down. I don't personally see
31:55
Speaker 3: a way out of it. And it's proven now that
31:57
Speaker 3: stock markets can be at all time highs. That's irrelevant matter.
32:00
Speaker 3: What needs to matter is on inflation and on gas.
32:03
Speaker 3: And so outside of a serious, like major cultural flashpoint
32:08
Speaker 3: which goes right and really saves them.
32:11
Speaker 1: I don't see a way out of this.
32:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, the economy and cost of living, because think about
32:14
Speaker 3: Biden would have sunk if it wasn't for roversus weight.
32:16
Speaker 1: It actually would have been a complete shellaking.
32:18
Speaker 3: The only reason that they held on was because of
32:20
Speaker 3: all of the fury around abortion. Even that dissipated by
32:23
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. It was a real flash in the
32:25
Speaker 3: pan kind of style.
32:27
Speaker 2: The other thing that Democrats have going for them is
32:29
Speaker 2: they have gained so much with the type of voters
32:32
Speaker 2: that always show up in midterms, and I think that
32:34
Speaker 2: was the other piece that really saved them in that
32:37
Speaker 2: midterm election. And then it ended up, you know, being
32:40
Speaker 2: kind of disastrous because that was what solidified Biden's position
32:43
Speaker 2: and everybody rallied around him, and then there wasn't a primary,
32:46
Speaker 2: and then he couldn't talk and you guys all know
32:48
Speaker 2: what happens from there, and we end up with Kamala
32:50
Speaker 2: with no democratic process and the whole thing and being
32:52
Speaker 2: a disaster. So it probably would have been good for
32:54
Speaker 2: the Democrats ultimately, if they had taken some beating in
32:57
Speaker 2: the mid terms, it would have been a bit of
32:58
Speaker 2: a reality check. But in any case, it's neither here
33:00
Speaker 2: nor there. At this point, CNN's Harry Enton was weighing
33:04
Speaker 2: in on just putting in context how historically bad these
33:08
Speaker 2: poll numbers are for Trump, because even though yes, Biden's
33:11
Speaker 2: numbers at this point were also pretty grim, ever after
33:14
Speaker 2: he withdrew from Afghanisty, and that's when his poll numbers
33:16
Speaker 2: really took a dive, and then you know, the economic
33:18
Speaker 2: concerns mounted and it became increasingly apparent just how feeble
33:22
Speaker 2: he was at that point, and he never recovered from there.
33:25
Speaker 2: These numbers are worse than anything that Biden saw during
33:28
Speaker 2: his term, including on the issues you know, the cost
33:31
Speaker 2: of living minus forty two you have only it was
33:34
Speaker 2: what twenty some percent who said that Trump was doing
33:37
Speaker 2: a good job and costably. That means that the Janets
33:39
Speaker 2: of the world, you know, some people who are in
33:41
Speaker 2: not just that voted for him, but at the core
33:44
Speaker 2: of his coalition, are saying this cost of living, no,
33:48
Speaker 2: he's not doing a good job. That is quite extraordinary.
33:53
Speaker 2: Let's go and take a listen to Harry Enton putting
33:55
Speaker 2: this in some historical context.
33:57
Speaker 8: Jority of Americans are against this war. And regardless of
34:01
Speaker 8: what exactly he did mean, the com just democrat. The
34:06
Speaker 8: contact matters. But also here's what also matters. Democrats love
34:11
Speaker 8: that comment. They're gonna cut it and put in so
34:13
Speaker 8: many adds before the midterm elections. My goodness, gracious, it's
34:16
Speaker 8: a dopey comment from that perspective. And more than that,
34:19
Speaker 8: we're talking about seventy nine percent of Americans disapprove of
34:22
Speaker 8: Donald Trump on gas prices. That is the highest percentage
34:24
Speaker 8: that any president has had disapproving them on gas prices
34:28
Speaker 8: and any question that I could possibly find. We're talking
34:31
Speaker 8: about when we're talking about inflation, right, we're talking about
34:34
Speaker 8: the worst polls ever for any president belong to Donald
34:37
Speaker 8: John Trump. That's worse. He's doing worse than Carter, He's
34:41
Speaker 8: doing worse than Joe Biden did in his last term.
34:45
Speaker 8: When you put it all together, you just go, man, alive, man,
34:49
Speaker 8: what are you doing?
34:52
Speaker 2: And he makes a good point there too, about that
34:54
Speaker 2: comment that Trump made and doubled down on about I
34:57
Speaker 2: don't think about American's financial situation.
35:00
Speaker 4: At all.
35:02
Speaker 2: The fact he said that out loud is insane. I mean,
35:05
Speaker 2: he's right, that is going to be repeated over and
35:08
Speaker 2: over again as it should. As it should because I
35:11
Speaker 2: think he's telling the truth. I don't think that factor's
35:14
Speaker 2: in for him. I think he's worried about some of
35:16
Speaker 2: the pods. I think he's looking at the markets. I
35:18
Speaker 2: think he's feeling some pressure. But at the end of
35:21
Speaker 2: the day, is he thinking about like you going to
35:23
Speaker 2: the gas pump and looking at the bill and going,
35:25
Speaker 2: oh my god, I don't know if I can keep doing. No,
35:26
Speaker 2: he's not thinking about that. He's right, he's not thinking
35:28
Speaker 2: about that at all.
35:29
Speaker 3: No, it's it's not even about thinking about it's in
35:32
Speaker 3: the totality of where the position has been taken on Iran,
35:37
Speaker 3: which is that it's all about him saving face. It's also,
35:40
Speaker 3: you know, I keep thinking, this.
35:41
Speaker 1: Is really important.
35:42
Speaker 3: Biden and Carter didn't suffer as badly because objectively it
35:47
Speaker 3: wasn't one hundred percent their fault. Carter did not cause
35:50
Speaker 3: the Uranian revolution. Now, they didn't know what was.
35:52
Speaker 1: Going to happen, and that's a failure.
35:54
Speaker 3: It's a scandal for sure, like with the CIA, and
35:56
Speaker 3: but yeah, they did not cause the Iranian Revolution, Like
35:58
Speaker 3: they did not call the Arab countries to boycott the
36:03
Speaker 3: United States, right, like they were not directly involved in
36:07
Speaker 3: doing that. Biden, for all of his faults, did not say, yeah,
36:11
Speaker 3: go ahead, Putin invade Ukraine.
36:13
Speaker 1: Like Putin invaded Ukraine, not Biden.
36:15
Speaker 3: No, I don't think we should add any of those
36:16
Speaker 3: sanctions bs in the first place.
36:18
Speaker 1: That's on Biden in my opinion.
36:20
Speaker 3: But Putin's price hike was enough for a lot of
36:22
Speaker 3: brain dead Americans to say, Okay, it's not our fault
36:25
Speaker 3: or it's not his fault, right this one, like it's
36:27
Speaker 3: literally your fault, Like it's your fault you did this,
36:30
Speaker 3: is that it was here and now is here. You
36:33
Speaker 3: decided to invade and created this entire mass. That's part
36:36
Speaker 3: of the reason why it's nearly as bad as Iraq.
36:38
Speaker 3: And I remember reading, you know, a lot of the
36:41
Speaker 3: post analyzes of Iraq, and one of my favorite biographers,
36:44
Speaker 3: I actually got to talk to him before he died,
36:46
Speaker 3: Gene Edward Smith, and he said, Iraq is the worst
36:48
Speaker 3: foreign policy mistake in the history of the United States
36:50
Speaker 3: at the time. This is prior Iran, And I was like,
36:52
Speaker 3: how could you say that? And he's like, look, with Vietnam,
36:55
Speaker 3: like we got dragged in, but it was never as
36:58
Speaker 3: much of an.
36:58
Speaker 1: Explicit war of choice. Wars of choice, he told me,
37:02
Speaker 1: are always.
37:02
Speaker 3: In a completely different category than being dragged in or
37:06
Speaker 3: morasses of international situations which get you pull in. And
37:09
Speaker 3: so for Trump like to choose this war and then
37:13
Speaker 3: to have such an explicit signpost that we've now all
37:16
Speaker 3: seen for I.
37:17
Speaker 1: Mean, it's almost three months.
37:19
Speaker 3: We're ten days away from a three month anniversary of
37:22
Speaker 3: this entire thing. That's what quarter of a year it
37:25
Speaker 3: gone evaporated all of US oil. That's I mean, we're
37:28
Speaker 3: going to get into the catastrophe.
37:29
Speaker 1: Snara.
37:30
Speaker 3: I just read a post this morning of a guy
37:33
Speaker 3: who just went to Somalia. He was like, I've never
37:35
Speaker 3: seen anything like it in terms of the food shortage
37:37
Speaker 3: and what it will mean in terms of purchasing. He's like,
37:39
Speaker 3: we were going to have a full blown mass maamen in.
37:41
Speaker 4: Africa right well, and also because we pulled all the
37:44
Speaker 4: aid for both but yeah, food procombination of those two things.
37:48
Speaker 2: And there's also because of the climate crisis, there have
37:50
Speaker 2: been you know, droughts and extreme weather that is also
37:53
Speaker 2: in you know, cause problems for crops around the world,
37:57
Speaker 2: including here. That's why we covered the other day that
37:59
Speaker 2: we yields here or go to be the lowest since
38:00
Speaker 2: the early seventies because of this extreme weather that we've
38:04
Speaker 2: had here as well. And that's before you even get
38:06
Speaker 2: into the effects of how expensive fertilizer is now and
38:09
Speaker 2: how much that is going to reverberate throughout. So yeah,
38:11
Speaker 2: the World Food Program is saying somewhere around forty three
38:14
Speaker 2: million people could be pushed into acute hunger because of
38:17
Speaker 2: this confluence of horrible events, you know, the leading edge
38:20
Speaker 2: of which now is this war of choice with Iran.
38:23
Speaker 2: And people know like it's no one is out there, like, gee,
38:27
Speaker 2: I wonder why gas prices are going so high. Everyone
38:30
Speaker 2: knows why they are paying what they're paying at the pump.
38:33
Speaker 4: It is no mystery. There's not some confluence of it.
38:36
Speaker 2: No, it's because Trump decided to do this really dumb
38:39
Speaker 2: thing that we did not want. That's why prices are high,
38:42
Speaker 2: and everyone knows that. We also want to take a
38:45
Speaker 2: quick look at actually put B six up on the
38:47
Speaker 2: screen because this again credits to what I was just
38:49
Speaker 2: saying about the Iran war fifty eight percent.
38:53
Speaker 4: In this poll for the.
38:54
Speaker 2: Institute for Global Affairs the Eurasia Group, fifty eight percent
38:57
Speaker 2: of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling the war with Iran.
39:00
Speaker 2: I think that's actually a little bit better than numbers
39:02
Speaker 2: were for the New York Times, but still quite bad.
39:04
Speaker 4: But let's look at this one.
39:06
Speaker 2: Seventy nine percent of Americans say the war has affected
39:10
Speaker 2: their cost of living at least some more than half.
39:12
Speaker 2: Sixty two percent say it's become harder to pay the
39:14
Speaker 2: bills in the past six months. Eighty percent of Americans. No,
39:19
Speaker 2: they are seeing the way that this war has affected
39:22
Speaker 2: their cost of living eighty percent of Americans. And everyone
39:26
Speaker 2: knows that Trump and Trump alone made this decision. Maybe
39:29
Speaker 2: they're telling us, oh, Israel droed him into it, whatever,
39:31
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, he's the big
39:33
Speaker 2: boy that made the decision and the blame wise at
39:36
Speaker 2: his feet.
39:37
Speaker 4: Last piece here, which.
39:38
Speaker 2: Is just interesting to take note of the way that
39:40
Speaker 2: public opinion has shifted so extraordinarily on our dynamic with
39:44
Speaker 2: Israel's but b five up on the screen. This is
39:47
Speaker 2: also from that New York Times Siena poll. So they
39:50
Speaker 2: asked this question in the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians.
39:53
Speaker 2: Which side you sympathize with more, Israel or the Palestinians.
39:56
Speaker 2: Palestinians actually narrowly but still very significant, beat out Israel
40:02
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent to thirty five percent, and the rest
40:04
Speaker 2: say they don't know or they know both equally effectively.
40:08
Speaker 2: That is such a sheet sea change I cannot even
40:12
Speaker 2: tell you. I mean, it has never Palestinians have never
40:15
Speaker 2: come anywhere close to the sympathy Americans have had for
40:18
Speaker 2: Israel because of the overwhelming propaganda that we have been
40:21
Speaker 2: fed here and just the assumption, oh, Israel's our allied,
40:24
Speaker 2: they're the good guy's period.
40:25
Speaker 4: End of story.
40:26
Speaker 2: Now dig in here by party Democrats, forget about it.
40:30
Speaker 4: It's overwhelming.
40:31
Speaker 2: Fifty seven percent say Palestinians, only seventeen percent say Israel independence.
40:36
Speaker 2: It's also quite significant edge for Palestinians forty four percent
40:40
Speaker 2: versus Israel twenty nine percent. For Republicans though, and this
40:44
Speaker 2: is what we were talking about yesterday and our concerns
40:46
Speaker 2: about Thomas Massing whether it'll be able to pull off
40:48
Speaker 2: is primary victory. Today, it is still quite overwhelmingly in
40:52
Speaker 2: favor of Israel. And so I think this important reality
40:55
Speaker 2: check in terms of how much the shift has really
40:57
Speaker 2: occurred within the Republican Party. You've got sixty six percent
41:00
Speaker 2: of Republicans saying that they sympathize more with Israel and
41:03
Speaker 2: only nine percent saying they sympathize more with Palestinians. So
41:08
Speaker 2: still overwhelmingly the Republican Party is a pro Israel party.
41:12
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean there hasn't been significant splintering in faction.
41:15
Speaker 2: You know, some factions, especially I would say online factions
41:19
Speaker 2: that have taken a very different view of things, you know,
41:22
Speaker 2: the Tucker Carlson's of the World, the Margie Taylor Greens
41:25
Speaker 2: of the World, et cetera. But still, if you look
41:29
Speaker 2: at the party as a whole, a party that is
41:31
Speaker 2: dominated by older voters, they still have the traditional view
41:34
Speaker 2: of Israel and still stand with our alliance and want
41:38
Speaker 2: to send them weapons and all those sorts of things.
41:40
Speaker 3: It is purely generational, and that is the most important
41:43
Speaker 3: thing on Republicans. The sixteenes per six percent support of
41:46
Speaker 3: Israel is almost entirely backstopped by overwhelming support amongst older voters.
41:52
Speaker 3: For everybody who's younger sub forty or fifty it's either
41:56
Speaker 3: fifty fifty, and once you get to the eighteen to
41:58
Speaker 3: thirty five, it's like basically non existent, especially whenever it
42:01
Speaker 3: comes to House on End Israel. It's remember, it's always
42:04
Speaker 3: going to be a bit different, like for a lot
42:05
Speaker 3: of liberals, this is a humanitarian issue. For a lot
42:08
Speaker 3: of America, like okay, sorry, for a lot of Republicans,
42:12
Speaker 3: younger Republicans, it is a nationalism it's a nationalism issue,
42:16
Speaker 3: like it's intolerable to have people like Miriam Maddilson and
42:18
Speaker 3: Paul Singer and these people just try to come in
42:20
Speaker 3: and you know, bomb Thomas Massey with billions hundreds of
42:24
Speaker 3: millions of dollars and all these super packs and all
42:27
Speaker 3: these other things, which it's basically like taking away your autonomy.
42:30
Speaker 3: So it's it's always going to be different about who
42:32
Speaker 3: do you sympathize with or not, But the net effect
42:35
Speaker 3: is actually going to be very similar in terms of
42:37
Speaker 3: cutting Israel off from foreign aid or treating them like
42:40
Speaker 3: any other country.
42:40
Speaker 1: That's a nightmare for them. It's literally a nightmare.
42:42
Speaker 3: But I do think it's an important distinction just to
42:44
Speaker 3: explain for why that number, because there are people who
42:48
Speaker 3: I know who support or sympathize with Israel, but are like, listen,
42:52
Speaker 3: even if I sympathize, like I can't be having you
42:56
Speaker 3: people write my laws in Georgia on BDS like that,
43:00
Speaker 3: it's intolerable.
43:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fair.
43:01
Speaker 2: But I would say, look, unfortunately, I think Laura Lumer
43:04
Speaker 2: is closer to the average Republican voter than like Marjorie Taylor.
43:06
Speaker 1: Grew no no, no question in terms of.
43:08
Speaker 2: Her views, in terms of her Islamophobia, in terms of
43:10
Speaker 2: her you know, lockstep, we got to support Israel, no
43:13
Speaker 2: matter what I think. That is, you know, more reflective
43:16
Speaker 2: of where the Republican base is at this point, because
43:18
Speaker 2: it is a party that's dominated by like Boomer Fox
43:21
Speaker 2: News Facebook.
43:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not denying, true, it's true. I'm more talking
43:25
Speaker 3: about it to the extent that there's a generational split.
43:28
Speaker 3: And you were to ask a younger Republican why they
43:30
Speaker 3: don't support Israel, you will get a very different answer,
43:33
Speaker 3: actually than necessarily if you were to go to some
43:35
Speaker 3: Gaza pin care protester like they're they're living in a
43:38
Speaker 3: totally different universe from where they are, and that's fine,
43:40
Speaker 3: I don't care. I'm just explaining for what that how
43:43
Speaker 3: that would manifest itself in some polling, and how what
43:46
Speaker 3: the future of that may look like.
43:48
Speaker 2: Yes, I completely agree that it comes from a very
43:51
Speaker 2: different place.