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Episode 308 - 6/27/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 308 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
• 0:39
  end. The month of June is almost
• 0:41
  over. I know it officially ends on
• 0:43
  Monday, June 30th. But for all all intents and
• 0:45
  purposes, our final full week here in the month of June before
• 0:49
  we turn the page over to, of course, July and actually went
• 0:53
  on one of my favorite hits all week, which I do every Thursday,
• 0:57
  8:00 with my guys Patrick Maher and Dustin Sweetlson on
• 1:01
  SiriusXM, the VSON channel with Mad Dog Sports Radio.
• 1:05
  And we talked about, yes, it's true, the Nathan's hot Dog
• 1:08
  eating contest. So if you want to check it out,
• 1:11
  there's a recording on vson.com. But basically the nuts and
• 1:15
  bolts, what we talked about is yes, number one, I'm a crazy
• 1:18
  person. I love betting.
• 1:18
  The hot dog contest #2 there is a data-driven approach when it
• 1:23
  comes to the hot dog eating contest.
• 1:25
  It starts with tracking line movement.
• 1:27
  So again, you don't have to know who Pat Bertaletti is.
• 1:30
  Jeffrey Esper, James Webb, Nick Weary, Mickey Pseudo.
• 1:34
  I think you know probably who Joey Chestnut is because he's
• 1:36
  the GOAT. And yes, he is back in the
• 1:39
  contest this year after being suspended from last year's
• 1:42
  contest because he committed the cardinal sin of doing a
• 1:45
  sponsorship promotional deal with an impossible meet, which
• 1:49
  might put me in quotations. It's the fake meet.
• 1:52
  But anyway, we do have Chestnut, who's back.
• 1:54
  We were talking about a data-driven way to bet the hot
• 1:57
  dog contest because I like to do it every single year.
• 1:59
  It gets me excited. I just think it's kind of crazy.
• 2:02
  You can roll your eyes, but you can make money off it as well.
• 2:05
  So one thing I would recommend is screenshotting the odds
• 2:09
  because I just went to DraftKings and again, some other
• 2:12
  books are going to have it. And you also got to check a lot
• 2:14
  of your jurisdictions because this is a quote UN quote novelty
• 2:17
  bet, which basically means it's kind of not really an official
• 2:21
  sport, but it's novelty of something you can bet on and
• 2:24
  still get down on. And I did notice that we do have
• 2:27
  some odds here. So what I would recommend is
• 2:30
  screenshotting the odds right now.
• 2:33
  And of course, 4th of July is next Friday.
• 2:35
  So let's see how this develops between now and Friday because
• 2:39
  again, you're going to have line movement, you're going to bets
• 2:41
  coming in and hopefully we can, you know, take advantage of some
• 2:44
  some sharp moves. Now a couple things going on
• 2:48
  here. Joey Chestnut is obviously a
• 2:50
  huge favorite to win -2500 that's way too high to bet.
• 2:54
  But I did notice that the over under hot dogs for Joey
• 2:58
  Chestnut, if I can find it here, is 71 1/2 and it's not 71 1/2 /
• 3:06
  - 125. It's 71 1/2 under -125.
• 3:10
  So I'm leaning as of right now, Chestnut under 71 1/2.
• 3:14
  That juice is notable to me because he's a popular guy.
• 3:17
  Everyone's going to want to, you know, play.
• 3:18
  And if you can do it, parlay Chestnut to win.
• 3:21
  And over is is the red, white and blue the American flag?
• 3:24
  I guess that'll be the bet, but Chestnut had a year off, so he's
• 3:28
  got to get back into it. Maybe that missed kind of, you
• 3:31
  know, mixed up or messed up his routine.
• 3:34
  He's also a year older. He's 41 years old.
• 3:36
  And then also, if you look at what Chestnut has done, he's
• 3:38
  obviously incredible. He's won, I believe, 16 to the
• 3:41
  last 17 or 16 to the last 18 mustard belts.
• 3:45
  But he had a ridiculous run of like 707274717576.
• 3:50
  I mean, this is like, you know, Barry Bonds home runs, but the
• 3:53
  last two he had 63 and 62. So he's kind of trended down
• 3:58
  last couple of years. And it feels like a contrarian
• 4:01
  play because again, the expensive price is to play the
• 4:04
  under. And anytime an under is juiced
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  up, that's just kind of automatically gets me excited
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  because it tells me that even though it's a popular guy,
• 4:12
  people want to play over, the more expensive price is to play
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  the under. So that's one I'm keeping my eye
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  out on. And what I'm going to do is kind
• 4:19
  of monitor this. Let's see, First off, is there a
• 4:21
  book that's at 7272 1/2? Can we get a better number?
• 4:25
  But then also, it's under 71 1/2 -, 125.
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  What if by Monday or Tuesday it's under 71 1/2 -, 140 or it's
• 4:33
  trending down towards 71 or 70 1/2?
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  I want some further validation of this line getting juiced up
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  or falling further toward that under.
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  And then, of course, waiting for my buddy John Ewing, who'll give
• 4:44
  us a bets in dollars splits breakdown.
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  I know you're laughing because it's a hot dog contest.
• 4:49
  I get it, but again, there's a real data-driven approach here,
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  so I'm leaning on that under. I'm also leaning on Mickey
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  Pseudo, who is the GOAT female contestant.
• 5:00
  I believe she's won like 9 of the last 10 or something like
• 5:02
  that. But her over under hot dogs is
• 5:05
  44 1/2 and it is just up over -120 so that's notable to me.
• 5:10
  Can she 45 dogs in 10 minutes on Coney Island?
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  Well, last year sheet 51, so maybe that's a bettable number
• 5:18
  as well. I'm also kind of looking at some
• 5:20
  of these other guys you're going to have over unders for.
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  Jeffrey Esper, 49 1/2, James Webb, 49 1/2.
• 5:26
  I mean, I'm looking at Nick Weary, 46 1/2.
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  Who else? If there's one other guy, Bert
• 5:33
  Bertaletti over 50 1/2 -, 125. There's also a prop bet on if
• 5:37
  you just get rid of Joey Chestnut, who will be like the
• 5:40
  second best, second best, you know, contestant or who would
• 5:45
  win if Chestnut weren't there, however you want to phrase it.
• 5:48
  And right now it's Bertaletti plus 170, web plus 220, Esper
• 5:53
  plus 220. So is there a plus money
• 5:55
  opportunity there to take maybe Bertaletti?
• 5:57
  So that's what I'm looking at. And I know it's crazy to talk
• 6:00
  about it's the hot dog contest. But if you if you've been with
• 6:02
  me for years and years at this point, you know, this is
• 6:04
  something I get excited about. And we've actually won quite a
• 6:06
  few of them historically. So stay tuned.
• 6:10
  But there's a little primer there, a little hot dog eating
• 6:12
  contest. And I did tell Patrick and
• 6:14
  Dustin, it is one of my my bucket list to go to Coney
• 6:18
  Island on 4th of July and watch the contest in person and then
• 6:22
  actually go to a baseball game. I think it's, I don't know what
• 6:25
  league it is, but there's a baseball stadium on Coney Island
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  on the boardwalk. I don't know if it's a AAA or AA
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  stadium, but my sister used to live in New York City and went
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  to Coney Island one time. And I'm like, man, that's a cool
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  stadium. I like to see a game there and
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  watch fireworks. So maybe one day.
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  But anyway, guys, little little hot dog contest talk to start
• 6:43
  the pod now looking toward today on a big Friday.
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  I do have a three pack of sweats for you, kind of one bigger
• 6:49
  favorite, 2 modest favorites. So let's even go 2IN1 eke out a
• 6:52
  winning day. There's also an injury.
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  Hopefully if you played this number a little bit earlier,
• 6:56
  whether you're falling on the all systems go official best
• 6:59
  bets on juice rail Seen some movement with kind of a good
• 7:03
  break where the guy on the other side is really good is now out
• 7:06
  for this game. So hopefully that's a benefit to
• 7:08
  us. Now looking back toward last
• 7:10
  night, kind of frustrating. We did have a great one with the
• 7:12
  New York Mets. That's where kind of that short
• 7:14
  -110 to -115 line move. But then we lost with Cleveland,
• 7:19
  who absolutely no showed against Toronto.
• 7:22
  That one was just annoying because there's a good sharp
• 7:24
  line move on Cleveland. And you had some great stats
• 7:28
  basically on who is it, Tanner Bybee like at home and in the
• 7:32
  day. And Gosman was terrible on the
• 7:34
  road and in the day. And when you know what, Gosman
• 7:37
  pitches a gem. So that's baseball for you.
• 7:39
  But the one that I just could not understand was the San
• 7:42
  Francisco Giants. Not only do you lose when you
• 7:46
  have a massive steam move in your favor, again, like we beat
• 7:49
  the closing line there. I think they close.
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  Like -180 not only do you lose at home to the freaking Miami
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  Marlins who stink, but you get swept at home against the
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  Marlins. Just unbelievable.
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  And if it wasn't enough to lose a play like that was also
• 8:04
  frustrating is the fact that San Fran got down big early like 3
• 8:08
  nothing and then 5 nothing. And they tied it 5:00 to 5:00.
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  And then Miami just absolutely crushes it late innings tax on
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  seven more runs. You lose 12 to 5.
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  So hey, sometimes that's that's what's going to happen in
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  baseball. But I did not have San Fran
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  getting swept at home against Miami on my bingo card.
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  So either way, guys, we're going to see if we can finish off the
• 8:28
  week strong and hopefully get 2 out of 3 baseball plays here for
• 8:31
  tonight. Now I just want to remind you
• 8:33
  before we get these breakdowns going that there are no podcasts
• 8:36
  on the weekends. Again, I don't do it Saturday
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  and Sunday because my wife would probably kill me if I work seven
• 8:42
  days a week. Although I kind of do work seven
• 8:43
  days a week as a writer for vsim.com.
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  But because I love it. But no pods on the weekends.
• 8:49
  But remember, you can read the sharp reports that I write.
• 8:52
  I always tweet them out at Josh under score Insights Saturday
• 8:54
  morning and Sunday morning if you want to sweat some baseball
• 8:57
  with me. And then of course, I mentioned
• 8:59
  it a second ago. But if you do sign up to get the
• 9:02
  all systems go best but picks on Juice Reel, it costs $4.99 a
• 9:06
  week and you'll get those plays all weekend as well from the
• 9:09
  Juice Reel picks page. So just want to hit mention
• 9:12
  that. And then of course, we'll be
• 9:14
  back at it on Monday. So without further ado, talking
• 9:17
  hot dog contest, little housekeeping, let's get back to
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  do what we love to do, which is betting on baseball, which is
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  again, I'm not going to say everyone grinds MLB every single
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  day for six months, but I'm one of the crazy people who do and I
• 9:30
  think there's a reason for it. It's a long sport, lot of games,
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  a long season I should say, and 15 games today.
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  Let's just try to find the top three plays that check off all
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  the boxes for us. A sharp line move, good bet
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  splits, good system matches. That's really the nuts and bolts
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  of making a data-driven play. So first one on the board, let's
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  go to Detroit where the Tigers are hosting the Minnesota Twins
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  as a 7:10 PM Eastern Time. First pitch, let's set the
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  stage, talk some line movement. I'll give you my play for this
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  one. So going in it we got the twins
• 10:00
  39 and 42 just split A4 game series against the Mariners.
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  I believe they lost the 1st 2:00 and then won the last two.
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  They won 10 to 1 yesterday as a -135 home favorite.
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  Meanwhile, the Tigers 51 and 31 on the year.
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  I believe they're the first team to win 50 games this year.
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  So man, Tigers are having a great season.
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  They just took two or three against the A's.
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  They had a big 8 nothing win yesterday as -155 home
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  favorites. So pitching matchup for this
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  one, if you noticed, maybe you're using your odds logic
• 10:30
  live odds page or MLB.com or ESPN.
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  We were kind of waiting on the starting pitcher for Minnesota.
• 10:36
  At one point it was TBD. That is not Tim, Tim Brown
• 10:40
  Doyle, that's to be decided. Then it was announced a little
• 10:44
  bit earlier or later in the morning that it's going to be
• 10:46
  the righty David Festa going for Minnesota.
• 10:49
  He's one and two with a 6.39 ERA this year.
• 10:52
  You know the Tigers are going to go with the fellow ready Sawyer
• 10:55
  Gibson Long SGLONL 4.58 ERA this year.
• 10:59
  So what have you seen across the market for this one?
• 11:02
  Well, this game opened at like almost a pick em -110 both sides
• 11:05
  very short Detroit -115 home favorite Minnesota around a -. 1
• 11:10
  O 5 Rd. dog and wise guys are saying let's fade festa, let's
• 11:15
  ride this red hot Tigers team. So you've seen the Tigers get
• 11:18
  steamed up -110 -. 115 now up to -125 S 1st signal to me is we
• 11:24
  got some smart money going with Detroit.
• 11:26
  Now Detroit has a really good bet split in particular at Circa
• 11:30
  out in Vegas, 83% of money line bets but over 95% of money line
• 11:34
  dollars around Detroit. So it tells me out in the desert
• 11:38
  you got a lot of smart money bets and dollars going with
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  Detroit here. Now I do have 8 system matches
• 11:43
  lighting up on the Tigers here. A couple of the best ones home
• 11:47
  favorites who made the playoffs the previous year who are also
• 11:50
  receiving line movement in their direction.
• 11:52
  Those teams are 172 and 80 this season, 68% with an 8% ROI.
• 11:58
  Tigers in particular, if you isolate Detroit in this spot,
• 12:01
  they're 23 and 972 percent, 13% ROI as a home favorite.
• 12:06
  That's the 4th best chalk home favorite in baseball.
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  Detroit is also 34 and 1668% with a 16% ROI against teams who
• 12:16
  missed the playoffs the previous year.
• 12:17
  So they typically do well as a home chalk favorite and they
• 12:20
  typically do well playing quote UN quote bad teams.
• 12:23
  Now, I'm going to, of course, hope that Gibson Long pitches
• 12:26
  well for us today. He used to be a top prospect.
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  He was out last year with I believe he had Tommy John.
• 12:31
  But I also want to fade Festa. And I'm really hoping, knock on
• 12:34
  wood, that the bats of Detroit can get to Festa because the
• 12:37
  Tigers do have the more explosive offense.
• 12:40
  They're hitting 254 on the year. They've hit a hundred home runs,
• 12:43
  410 runs scored. Twins only hitting 243 on the
• 12:47
  year, 93 homers, 347 runs scored.
• 12:51
  In particular, Detroit over the last 10 games playing pretty
• 12:55
  well both sides of the plate. They're hitting 272 with a 4.15
• 12:59
  team ERA. Minnesota's hit only hitting 251
• 13:02
  with a 6.55 team ERA. Gibson Long has an ERA of three
• 13:08
  at home. Not bad versus 4.91 on the road.
• 13:11
  He's not at home here. And I mentioned Festa, he has a
• 13:15
  ERA of 10 and four June starts. He's giving up 20 earned runs
• 13:19
  and 18 innings pitched. Also at home, 4.56 ERA, not
• 13:23
  terrible, but on the road, 12.27 ERA.
• 13:26
  And then just classic home Rd. splits.
• 13:29
  We have Detroit 28 and 13 at home.
• 13:31
  One of the better home teams in baseball.
• 13:33
  Minnesota, just 17 and 25 on the road.
• 13:36
  So we had to wait a little bit to get confirmation on who would
• 13:39
  be the starting pitcher for Minnesota.
• 13:41
  Festa was inserted. Line shot up to Detroit.
• 13:44
  I went back to Detroit today, guys.
• 13:46
  Hopefully they can get a winner for us at home at Comerica Park.
• 13:49
  I got Detroit -124 at FanDuel again.
• 13:52
  Shop around. Some books closer to -125 -. 130
• 13:57
  next one for you, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, First pitch.
• 14:00
  Let's look at an interleague showdown between the Saint Louis
• 14:03
  Cardinals and the Cleveland Guardians.
• 14:05
  Now going into this one, we have the Cards 44 and 38 on the year.
• 14:10
  They just split A4 game set against the Cubs.
• 14:13
  They lost the 1st 2 or sorry won the 1st 2:00 and then lost the
• 14:16
  next two. They lost yesterday 3 nothing as
• 14:18
  a + 115 home dog. Meanwhile, the Guardians 40 and
• 14:22
  39 on the air just dropped two or three against the Jays
• 14:25
  complete no show when I when I take them.
• 14:27
  Of course, they no show fell 6 nothing yesterday as a -135 home
• 14:31
  favorite. So for this interleague series
• 14:34
  opener, the cards are going to go with the veteran ready, Sonny
• 14:37
  Gray. He's having another good year
• 14:38
  seven and two 3.72 ERA. You know the guards are going to
• 14:42
  go with the fellow ready Luis Ortiz.
• 14:44
  They picked up from the pirates four and eight 4.3 O ERA.
• 14:48
  What do we see across the market for this one?
• 14:51
  Well, this game open Saint Louis around a - 120 -. 125 Rd.
• 14:55
  favorite with Cleveland around a + 100 plus one O 5 home dog and
• 15:00
  sharps are very quietly subtly laid the chalk with Saint Louis
• 15:03
  because we've seen Saint Louis tick up here a little bit -120
• 15:07
  -. 125 now up to around -130 some shops even as high as -135
• 15:13
  so it tells me some money here came in on the cards.
• 15:15
  Circa has a really good bet split on Saint Louis, 75% of
• 15:19
  money line bets, but 98% of money line dollars.
• 15:23
  So really good sizable bet split in favor of the sharp bets in
• 15:28
  Vegas playing Saint Louis. Good system match here if you're
• 15:32
  a road favorite coming off a shutout loss.
• 15:35
  Again, Cardinals lost 3 nothing yesterday.
• 15:37
  Those teams are 21 and 970 percent, 21% ROI this year.
• 15:42
  Saint Louis also has that classic value of being an
• 15:46
  interleague favorite with a lack of familiarity benefiting, quote
• 15:49
  UN quote the better team. Basically, when you don't play
• 15:51
  each other very often, typically the cream is going to rise to
• 15:54
  the top. I'm going to bank on the offense
• 15:56
  here, so hopefully Greg can pitch well, but the offense of
• 15:58
  Saint Louis has been better, knock on wood, than the
• 16:00
  Guardians this season. Saint Louis is hitting 253 on
• 16:04
  the year. They've scored 382 runs.
• 16:07
  Guardians are only hitting 229 and have only scored 297 runs.
• 16:12
  In particular, we got 2 righties on the bump.
• 16:14
  Saint Louis is hitting 261 against righties.
• 16:17
  That's the third best in baseball.
• 16:19
  Cleveland is only hitting 231 against righties.
• 16:21
  That ranks 27th down at the bottom of the barrel.
• 16:24
  Also, Cardinals, they've gone 12 and three, and the 15 starts
• 16:28
  that Gray has made this year mean all the Guardians are 6 and
• 16:31
  9 and Ortiz's 15 starts. And then, oh, by the way, I was
• 16:35
  mentioning a good player is not going to play today.
• 16:38
  Well, it's Jose Ramirez for Cleveland.
• 16:40
  He was hit, I believe, in the hand yesterday and he is not
• 16:43
  expected to start. I don't think he's in the
• 16:45
  lineup. They said maybe he could pinch
• 16:46
  it. But obviously you're taking out
• 16:48
  taking away your best player for Cleveland, which hopefully is a
• 16:51
  benefit towards Saint Louis. So we have a interleague
• 16:54
  favorite line move, a really good system match that shot off
• 16:57
  a favorite Rd. favorite after a shutout, cashing 70% of the
• 17:00
  time. I'm back in sunny Gray and I'm
• 17:03
  going to hope that we can get the Saint Louis bats hitting,
• 17:07
  hitting, hitting Ortiz early and often.
• 17:10
  So I am on Saint Louis Cardinals, I got them at -130
• 17:14
  again, some shops as high as -135.
• 17:17
  Last bite of the night is a fishy high number and I'm laying
• 17:20
  it. Let's talk about a 7:15 PM
• 17:23
  Eastern Time. First pitch between the
• 17:24
  Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves.
• 17:27
  So going into this one, the Phills are 47 and 34.
• 17:30
  They just got swept though by the Astros.
• 17:32
  They lost 2 to one yesterday as a + 130 row dog.
• 17:36
  Meanwhile, the Braves 37 and 43. They just split A4 game set
• 17:40
  against the Mets. They won the 1st 2, lost the
• 17:42
  next two. We're happy about that because
• 17:45
  they lost 4. Nothing yesterday as a + 100 row
• 17:47
  dog. That meant that the Mets came
• 17:49
  through for us last night. Now, pitching match up tonight,
• 17:52
  we have the Phillies going at the ready, Mick Abel, who is 2
• 17:56
  and one with a 3.47 ERA. Meanwhile, the Braves are going
• 17:59
  to go with fellow ready Bryce Elder.
• 18:01
  He's two and four with a 4.77 ERA.
• 18:03
  Now, what are we seeing across the market for this one?
• 18:06
  Well, nothing but steam on the Braves.
• 18:09
  Braves open this game around a -, 140 home favorite Philly A +
• 18:13
  120 row dog. And you would maybe kind of
• 18:16
  expect that, hey, Philly's got a good winning record.
• 18:18
  Braves are below 500. You know, take the plus money
• 18:21
  with Philly, right? Well, it's going the opposite
• 18:23
  way. Sharps have absolutely hammered
• 18:25
  the Atlanta Braves -140 up to -175 some shops even as high as
• 18:31
  -180 I got the Braves at -172 at FanDuel.
• 18:36
  I really like the splits on the Braves in particular out in
• 18:39
  Vegas at Circa, they're only getting 60% of money line bets,
• 18:43
  but 97% of money line dollars. So another big big sharp low
• 18:48
  bets higher dollars bet split in favor of the Braves.
• 18:51
  Now I have 5 system matches lit up on Atlanta.
• 18:54
  Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year who
• 18:56
  are taking in line movement in their direction.
• 18:59
  That was the same system match with Detroit.
• 19:01
  That system is 172 and 8068 percent, 8% ROI.
• 19:06
  And then another system which matched quite a bit in that Mets
• 19:09
  series against the Braves and came through I think every time.
• 19:13
  Home favorites or sorry, at least two of the times.
• 19:16
  Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year
• 19:18
  playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous
• 19:20
  year. Remember, the idea here is that
• 19:23
  you have two pretty good teams. It's a rivalry type game.
• 19:26
  Typically, the better team comes through that system is 85 and
• 19:29
  4068 percent, 14% ROI. Home favorites -175 or more who
• 19:36
  made the playoffs the previous year?
• 19:38
  And they're getting line movement, 81 and 2775%, 7% ROI.
• 19:44
  So we have like a sick to 68% systems and a 75% system, all
• 19:49
  lighting up on the Braves. Braves have been, you know,
• 19:53
  really different home Rd. Braves have been pretty good at
• 19:56
  home, and in particular, they've hit very well at home.
• 19:59
  So the Braves at home are hitting 257 this year.
• 20:02
  That's the 10th best in baseball.
• 20:04
  Phillies are only hitting 235 on the road this year, and that
• 20:08
  actually ranks 21st. And the Braves overall, you only
• 20:11
  have a losing record. They're 22 and 15 at home.
• 20:13
  So they've they've played pretty well.
• 20:15
  What do they call that truest park now at this point?
• 20:18
  Lastly, it Braves, when they are a home favorite -175 or more,
• 20:23
  they're 12 and 571%. So this looks to be like a
• 20:27
  really big number. And you're probably thinking,
• 20:29
  man, there's got to be value there on the Phillies getting
• 20:32
  plus money. But I'm going to trust this
• 20:34
  market move and go with the sharp line move on the Braves
• 20:37
  because again, if why are the Braves price so high?
• 20:39
  It feels like it shouldn't be this high.
• 20:41
  What might be high for a reason. So I'm going to go Braves in the
• 20:44
  spot. I got a -172 at FanDuel.
• 20:47
  Again, shop around some books as high as -175 -, 180.
• 20:52
  So that about does it for episode 3 O eight of the ASG
• 20:55
  pod, a three pack of MLB sweats. Let's again try to get 2 out of
• 20:58
  three each out of winning day. But this is the part of the pod
• 21:01
  where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
• 21:04
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 21:07
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 21:10
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 21:12
  Whether we have a great day, a bad day, somewhere in between.
• 21:15
  You guys show up every day. I see the stats, the downloads,
• 21:18
  the listens means so much to me that we've kind of created this
• 21:21
  community not of opinion based betting, but on market based
• 21:24
  betting, trusting numbers, not teams.
• 21:27
  And the fact that we're growing and really bringing new people
• 21:30
  into the fold, that really, really makes me happy and really
• 21:33
  honored. So if you do enjoy this pod,
• 21:36
  could you do me a solid? Could you give it a five star
• 21:38
  review on Spotify or iTunes? If you want to leave a nice
• 21:40
  comment under the review section or you want to click the follow
• 21:44
  button or recommend the pod to a friend, that would also be a
• 21:47
  pretty cool move by you and make me very happy.
• 21:50
  Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, data-driven
• 21:54
  sharp contrarian betting betting based on what the market is
• 21:57
  telling us where the smart money's at fading the public
• 22:01
  looking at bet splits and system matches.
• 22:03
  If this style of betting now kind of like a light is going
• 22:06
  off in your head like hey, it's not going to win every time
• 22:08
  because nothing does and sports betting is really hard, but this
• 22:10
  provides me a blueprint to grind long term and just eke out
• 22:14
  winning days and try to stack our bankroll.
• 22:16
  If that's the case and you want to let me know you appreciate
• 22:18
  the pod and you want to do me a solid, make me happy, or more
• 22:22
  importantly, maybe you know, kind of gain more knowledge as
• 22:26
  well as maybe maybe you know someone who is new into betting
• 22:29
  and is struggling or wants to get into betting but doesn't
• 22:32
  know what the difference between a money line and a spread and a
• 22:34
  total is. Well, guess what?
• 22:36
  You should go to Amazon.com and type in the everything Guide to
• 22:40
  Sports betting. That's the first book I ever
• 22:42
  wrote and I think it holds up pretty well today.
• 22:45
  I wrote it back in 2019, but it's really just a good
• 22:47
  blueprint of how to how to really find those sharp
• 22:50
  contrarian plays. It's great for brand new
• 22:52
  betters, even intermediate betters.
• 22:54
  So if you know someone trying to break in, I think this is a good
• 22:56
  start. But if you want to pick it up,
• 22:59
  you'd make me very happy. It's got everything we've
• 23:01
  learned in the industry or I've learned in the industry, how
• 23:03
  lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement,
• 23:06
  how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
• 23:09
  online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 23:12
  management plan, how to go contrarian chapters on all the
• 23:15
  major sports. It's all included in the
• 23:17
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 23:19
  So pick up a copy of the Everything Guide and then while
• 23:21
  you're at it, while you're hanging on Amazon.com, then
• 23:24
  you're going to type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
• 23:28
  That's my new book. It comes out August 12th.
• 23:31
  I'm really excited about it. Can't wait to get it in your in
• 23:33
  your guys's hands because I'm very proud of it and I've been
• 23:35
  working on it for quite a while and it's finally happening.
• 23:38
  It's kind of crazy. I remember literally, you know,
• 23:41
  having a little bit of a like kind of an outline, but
• 23:45
  literally like the first literal words I started writing on my,
• 23:49
  on my, my desktop computer Microsoft Word.
• 23:54
  And I started off with like literally one word and end up
• 23:56
  being over 200,000 words with like 400 pages.
• 24:00
  So can't wait for you guys to check it out.
• 24:01
  But if you do want to pre-order a copy, that'll be a really cool
• 24:05
  move by you because you'd make me happy.
• 24:07
  You'd make my publishers happy. So pre-order a copy of the NFL
• 24:10
  sharpening playbook, which by the way, is the number one new
• 24:13
  release in sports gambling on Amazon.
• 24:16
  So I'm very proud of that, but then also the everything guide.
• 24:19
  Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 24:22
  Buy a beer or ginger ale. We'll get some nachos together.
• 24:25
  We'll sweat the the cards, the Tigers and the Braves together
• 24:28
  tonight. How's that sound?
• 24:29
  Sounds pretty good to me. Next, if you haven't done it
• 24:32
  yet, go download rhythm and Juice reel, my two favorite
• 24:34
  sports betting apps Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed
• 24:38
  models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 24:41
  Again, right now it's kind of gamblers summer gamblers
• 24:43
  vacation. So it's just baseball and WNBA
• 24:46
  and but rhythms got you covered with player props and
• 24:49
  predictions, game bets for both. And then also Juice Reel.
• 24:52
  If you enjoy this pod, it's free.
• 24:54
  So I'm going to pass the hat. If you have a $5.00 bill that
• 24:56
  you want to drop into the hat, you can do so by signing up to
• 24:59
  get the All Systems Go official best bet picks from the Juice
• 25:03
  Reel app. So I tweet out a link every day
• 25:05
  at Josh under score insights. Late afternoon.
• 25:07
  I say something like, hey, Friday's ASG pod best bets are
• 25:11
  posted on Juice Reel. Click this link.
• 25:13
  So you can just wait for that tweet or check it out on my
• 25:15
  feed, or you can just go to the Juice reel bottom right corner
• 25:19
  tab that says buy or sell. Click that and then search
• 25:22
  sellers ASG under score podcast. Again, $4.99 a week.
• 25:27
  This pods free. I considered a tip chart if you
• 25:29
  like the insights, if you want to get the plays earlier in the
• 25:32
  day and beat some closing lines, you can sign up to get those
• 25:34
  plays there. And you can tail fade, do
• 25:36
  whatever you want. It's totally up to you.
• 25:38
  But just know that if I play them, my money's behind it.
• 25:41
  And I'm rooting for that side, of course, but also juice Reel
• 25:43
  is going to give you the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
• 25:46
  sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays shop for the
• 25:49
  best line futures. They revamped kind of their
• 25:52
  their matchups tab as well, which is pretty cool.
• 25:54
  You can just click analyze to get the all that information.
• 25:58
  And then also you'll get a running report card of your
• 26:00
  action once you sync up all your books.
• 26:02
  So download rhythm, download Juice Reel, give them a five
• 26:05
  star review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
• 26:09
  page? Well, if you don't, you need
• 26:11
  one. Seriously, it's so important
• 26:13
  because you got to know what games are available today.
• 26:15
  What time are all the games played?
• 26:17
  Live scoring once the game gets going, live in game wagering
• 26:20
  odds. I tell you, I love when I'm
• 26:22
  sweating my games to have my odds logic live odds page in
• 26:25
  front of me on my tablet looking at how the live line is moving
• 26:29
  and if I'm on a team in the live line shot up in their favor, I'm
• 26:32
  feeling good. If it goes the other way, I'm
• 26:33
  getting a little nervous, but it also provides some in game
• 26:36
  wagering opportunities before the game pre flop.
• 26:40
  As a lot of people like to say, it really gives you the great
• 26:43
  obvious advantage of tracking the market.
• 26:46
  So the complete line history column of the all the opening
• 26:49
  numbers and then the current prices at all the different
• 26:51
  books, see which direction the line is moving.
• 26:53
  When the odds get lit up in red, you know what teams getting
• 26:56
  steamed. You can find a book that hasn't
• 26:57
  adjusted yet with a pretty good number.
• 27:00
  And then you're also going to get obviously the, the most
• 27:02
  important part to me is finding the best price, which book is
• 27:05
  offering that best price? So odds logic is the best
• 27:09
  around. And I'd love for you guys to
• 27:10
  give it a shot. All you got to do is go to
• 27:12
  oddslogic.com/josh 123 and that's going to give you a 7 day
• 27:18
  free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
• 27:22
  So that about does it for Episode 3 O eight of the ASG Pod
• 27:25
  powered by Rhythm as always, leave you with two final
• 27:27
  thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 27:30
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 27:33
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, or the Nash, of course, or Encore in
• 27:36
  Boston, or Bet MGM or Plain Ridge Park Casino in
• 27:39
  Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
• 27:42
  get down, Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, Where
• 27:44
  the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
• 27:47
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 27:49
  swimming pool when you cash a big ticket at Circa whatever you
• 27:53
  do, Cleveland No Show and Giants.
• 27:55
  I honestly can't believe I was Dming my buddy Darush.
• 27:58
  He's like, how the hell did the Giants get swept by the Miami
• 28:01
  Marlins at home? That's baseball for you, but at
• 28:04
  least the Mets came through. So show me a Mets ticket.
• 28:07
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 28:09
  We'll post about the book and sweat some sharp contrarian
• 28:11
  plays together. So one and two, two and one,
• 28:14
  three and OO and three. Whether we're hot, whether we're
• 28:17
  cold, whether we're up, whether we're down, whether we're
• 28:19
  grinding, whether we're looking for, again, a sharp contrarian
• 28:24
  play that checks off all the boxes.
• 28:25
  We just got to stick to that model, into that blueprint.
• 28:28
  And if we can do that, find games that fit that system,
• 28:31
  match against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
• 28:33
  bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 28:36
  If we can do that long term, I'm confident we're going to be
• 28:39
  successful sports bettors. So have a fantastic Friday.
• 28:42
  Everybody have an even better weekend.
• 28:44
  Reminder, no pods on the weekend, but you can get the
• 28:47
  plays from my perspective from the Twitter account at Josh
• 28:51
  under score Insights, the Visa and articles that I write.
• 28:54
  And again, go sign up for those $4.99 a week plays on Juice Reel
• 28:59
  and you'll get all those for the weekend as well.
• 29:02
  But have a great weekend, everybody.
• 29:03
  I'll see you back on Monday. That'll be episode 3 O nine of
• 29:07
  the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
• 29:10
  Rhythm. Good luck and let's get some
• 29:12
  winners on the Friday on a Friday night on the diamond.
• 29:15
  Take care.