Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - (Still) the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 15 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - (Still) the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 15 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Thanks for watching Christmas tree, except it's all red.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: And I want to explain to you why.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: What he said is actually fantastic news, and it'll take the markets a few days to digest it.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: The weekend might just be long enough, but you will get the understanding and information sooner, because that's what we aim to do here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: So I will share my screen with you here and show you this.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: He said the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and inflation's on a bumpy path.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Sounds ominous, doesn't it?
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: And then he says if the data lets us go slower, it seems like the right thing to do.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I thought it was rather spooky how the writing got bigger and bigger here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: And what does it mean?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Well, it means the following.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Let me show you first of all what the market reaction is to that.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: So yesterday, before Jerome Powell the magnificent opened his big blabbering mouth, we thought well, 72% of people in the market thought we're going to get a rate cut in December.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Market thought we're going to get a rate cut in December.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Now, as you can see from the little chart here, that got cut in half and now only 55% of the market is expecting a December rate cut.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So you might be thinking that's terrible, felix.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: What about my fintech trades?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: What about my Tesla?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Is everything going to you know?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: No, it's just right.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: It's exactly what we wanted him to say, in fact, and if you smash the like button, I'll tell you why.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Holding the live stream hostage.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Now, I showed some of you this chart yesterday.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: If you followed me yesterday, I want to explain it to you again.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Slow rate cuts are perfect.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: You could sing to it and say you're beautiful.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: It's true, because it really is.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Slow rate cut cycles are the best thing for the market.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: They always have been.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Historically first cut that is the virgin cut here and to 24 months later.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: 24 months later, on average, we go up 32%, which is not a bad return for the S&P overall.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Right, could you live with 16% a year?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I think I'll do just fine, because we always beat the index by a mile anyway.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And what happens when they cut really, really, really fast, like the yellow line here?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: That's fast.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Well, you actually only go up about 18%.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Why would you go up less quickly with slower, faster rate cuts?
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Because it normally means the economy is in the.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I was going to say something rude there, but you know where it is right, in a dark place, whereas you cut slowly if the economy is in a good place.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So that is actually fantastic and wonderful.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks for all the like smashes there, scott and Mike and Perido, thank you very much for that.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: And yeah, exactly, those asking for Fed rate cuts should be careful what they wish for.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: The economy is no virgin.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I was talking about the first rate cut after the cycle.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like a re-virginification, if that is the word.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: And let me show you why.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: My headline today is actually not clickbait.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: It is not a desperate attempt to get you here.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: It's an attempt to actually get you here with real information.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: And what do I have on this chart here?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I have in purple rates US interest rates.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I have in that green red ziggity-zaggity line.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: There we have what?
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Anybody know?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Anybody know?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly, it's the QQQ, it's the NASDAQ.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And the last time we had rates as high as where we are right now, right was where, 2007, september 2007.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Rates had gone sky high going into 2006, 2007.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They flattened out and then they came down fairly rapidly.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Actually, what are we looking at right now?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Rates went up sky high, they're going flat and now they're coming down relatively rapidly.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And what has the Nasdaq done since this rate cut?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It wasn't actually that long ago, it was in 2007.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Well, it was at 50 at the time, 50.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Qqq was $50.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: It is now $508.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So you have an increase of I don't know what 900 plus percent.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Right, and if you think that isn't going to get repeated because it'll never happen again, well, go back further in the chart and look at a Dow Jones index, because that goes back to 1911 or something, and you will see this is what happens.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So all you have is some patience and you run the rate cycle as they cut and you have some time and you just buy the bloody index.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: You're very likely to come out very rich now.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Do I think you could do better than that?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you could do a lot better than that, but that's just my opinion, because we're up 100 something percent this year.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how we spot those big, beautiful breakouts and we look at a few in a moment, well, there's a masterclass I made for you.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: You can watch it straight after this video.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't want to miss a minute of Tallulah's insights here, would you?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Now Tallulah?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: No, that would be madness, but, in all seriousness, watch it, because you'll actually learn how we spot those breakouts before they happen.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Therefore, we can make a lot of money out of them.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So it's free of charge.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It's just a part of our mission to get you to where you want to get to financial freedom.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Let me show you a few positive data points that the miserable mainstream media isn't really putting out there.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: And you know, there's one thing that pissing mainstream media off right it begins with a T and it ends with a rump, and they don't really like that.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Trump has done the following the investor conviction has changed incredibly since the Trump election.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: How many people were expecting a stronger global economy?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: We have a 23 percentage point improvement.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: A stronger US economy 28% improvement.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Higher global CPI okay, inflation yeah, we're expecting that to be higher.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Not necessarily a bad thing.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Who is overweight?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Us stocks?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: That's gone up 29%.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Will small caps outperform large caps?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: 35%.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Think that that's again the Trump trade?
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: And yeah, so there is a massive, massive improvement in sentiment.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Everyone's basically dancing around going we're going to be rich, we're going to be rich, we're going to be really, really rich, and so should you.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And mainstream he doesn't really love that.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, read Bloomberg.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: They're so full of loathing and self-hate and seething for having backed the wrong candidate that can hardly put out any decent content.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So don't pay that much attention to those buggers.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Inflows Look at the inflows into large caps.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: It's the largest we've seen in well at least eight years.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Is that a bad thing?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Is that a sign the market's tinkering on the brink of collapse?
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: No, of course not.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It's a rally.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It's a rally that's very likely to last some time.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Is it going to go up in a straight line?
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: No, of course it.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Bloody isn't.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Nothing ever goes up in a straight line.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Novo Nordisk has been down for months.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Well, pharma we're going to get onto that in a moment.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: My favorite politician of all time is RFK and he's now going to be the US health secretary.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Pharma Billionaires going to be the US health secretary.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Pharma billionaires are quaking in their boots.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: They're like but I thought we bribed everybody, I thought we had an inside track.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Well, not so much, it seems.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: They're all getting fired.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So, anyway, let's talk about Tesla for a moment here.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So Trump has announced an end to the EV subsidy.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Currently, there is a $7,500 subsidy if you buy an EV, which is an insane waste of government money, just like every single subsidy ever.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: That is going to go away.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Now you might think that would be a terrible thing for Tesla.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Well, the stock certainly tanked on the news.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, do you see what I'm seeing?
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: We hit the resistance line, we went down and what are we doing?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: We're bouncing off the support line.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: It's almost as if these numbers in Trade Vision work right.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Check them out In Felix Fentzer-Oxford's Trade Vision there's a week's free trial to that and you will be better informed than 99% of retail, for sure.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: They basically have the same data that you know the hedge fund buggers have.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So what does this mean for tesla?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, what's that?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: What's the consequence?
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: To start with so higher prices for tesla, right by about $7,500.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: That means probably less cars sold, which probably means less revenue, less profit.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: That would be the if you just looked at Tesla as a single entity.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: But so this is Tesla right Now.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: What about everybody else out there?
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: What about other car manufacturers?
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Literally anybody else?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Same thing, right, price goes up by seven thousand five hundred dollars.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: They sell a lot less cars.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Right, they get less revenue.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And they, what do they do next, they lose money.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So why do those guys lose a lot of money, whereas with tesla I'm just saying profits might decline a little because tesla is the only car company out there that can actually make an EV and make it profitable without the subsidy.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So, in effect, elon has just kneecapped his entire competition and made them burn through money and have negative margins, as in lose money on every vehicle sold, because nobody has the super low manufacturing costs of Tesla.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And do you think they're going to get there?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: No, so what you're going to see is that all the old ICE companies are going to put a lot less effort into the whole EV thing and therefore leaving the whole freaking market to Tesla.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: It's a genius move, but it takes a little bit of time to see through, right, so it's kind of perfect.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: It's sort of move, but it takes a little bit of time to see through, so it's kind of perfect.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like you know, when big tobacco got advertising banned, you thought that was a strike against big tobacco.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: That was the biggest joke of the century.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So, tobacco what happened?
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Well, the government said no ads, right.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: And what happened to tobacco Profits went through the roof.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Do you know why?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Saved the whole ad budget, and nobody could ever launch a new product.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Nobody could ever enter the space.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: It was just whoever was there to start with, as in big tobacco, and they could do whatever they want.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: No competition ever again.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: This move isn't quite as drastic as that, but it's sort of on the same smartness level.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So Elon's getting his payout for being on the winning side here.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So for Tesla, this should be absolutely fantastic.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So it makes bugger all sense that it's going down Now.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Of course, the market is a short-sighted, idiotic beast in the short term, so it might go down a fair bit lower.