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The Biden-Trump Polls are All Over the Place · Pod Save America

0:00
Speaker 1: So Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 1: On today's show, the Biden-Trump polls are all over the place.
0:25
Speaker 1: Joe Manchin, RFK Jr., and other third-party candidates are still
0:28
Speaker 1: flirting with bids that could tip the election to Trump.
0:31
Speaker 1: And later, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown stops by to talk
0:34
Speaker 1: about the country's most-watched Senate race, the fight for reproductive rights,
0:38
Speaker 1: and how the city of East Palestine is recovering a
0:41
Speaker 1: year after the train disaster. But first, a new Washington
0:45
Speaker 1: Post poll out of South Carolina gives Donald Trump a
0:47
Speaker 1: 58-32 lead over Nikki Haley. Three weeks out from the primary,
0:52
Speaker 1: but that's not stopping her, Dan. The latest fundraising numbers
0:55
Speaker 1: show her campaign entered 2024 with $ 14. 6 million cash on hand.
1:00
Speaker 1: Her super PAC has another $ 3. 5 million. Her team argues
1:05
Speaker 1: that she has a path to the nomination through all
1:07
Speaker 1: the upcoming states that allow Democrats or undeclared voters to
1:10
Speaker 1: participate in the primary. She's running a new series of
1:13
Speaker 1: ads about Trump and Biden titled Grumpy Old Men. And
1:17
Speaker 1: she's been on quite a media tour, everything from CBS
1:20
Speaker 1: This Morning to Fox & Friends to this Breakfast Club
1:22
Speaker 1: interview with Charlamagne Tha God, where she had this to
1:24
Speaker 1: say about Donald Trump. Two more questions. How has Trump
1:28
Speaker 1: changed politics, for the good and the bad?
1:30
Speaker 3: He's made it chaotic. He's made it self-absorbed. He's made
1:37
Speaker 3: people dislike and judge each other. He's left that a
1:44
Speaker 3: president should have moral clarity. And know the difference between
1:48
Speaker 3: right or wrong. And he's just toxic. I mean, he,
1:53
Speaker 3: you know, I think a lot of the things he
1:54
Speaker 3: broke needed to be broken. But he doesn't know how
1:57
Speaker 3: to fix things again. And it's not OK to just break.
2:02
Speaker 3: You've got to fix it and make it better.
2:04
Speaker 1: Toxic. Toxic. What do you think, Dan? Should we run
2:08
Speaker 1: a side hustle where we get Democrats to vote for
2:09
Speaker 1: Haley in these primaries just to keep things interesting or what?
2:12
Speaker 2: I said this to you last week. I'm going to
2:14
Speaker 2: say it again. I am not getting on board with
2:16
Speaker 2: any plan that tries to convince people to vote for
2:17
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley over Joe Biden, which is what you're suggesting.
2:20
Speaker 2: But that's how it would work. That's a vote from
2:24
Speaker 2: Joe Biden that you're giving to Nikki Haley.
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Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. Watch out. Dean Phillips is going to overtake
2:29
Speaker 1: him in South Carolina.
2:30
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I just like people who vote for
2:32
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. That's just me. But that is a great
2:35
Speaker 2: answer from Nikki Haley. It is a great answer. It
2:37
Speaker 2: is an answer that She should have been giving for
2:41
Speaker 2: the last year. All these Republicans should have been giving.
2:42
Speaker 2: It's the kind of answer that you can build a
2:45
Speaker 2: campaign narrative on. Now, that poll shows some real problems
2:51
Speaker 2: for Nikki Haley, right? There are so many ways to
2:54
Speaker 2: look at this, but I'll give you one. There are
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Speaker 2: four subgroups in that poll that Nikki Haley is beating
2:58
Speaker 2: Donald Trump with. One, college graduates. That's pretty good. Two,
3:03
Speaker 2: people who identify as moderate or liberal.
3:06
Speaker 1: The libs. She's got the libs.
3:08
Speaker 2: You got the libs, people who think Joe Biden won
3:09
Speaker 2: the election fairly, and people who think abortion should be
3:12
Speaker 2: legal in almost every instance. That's her base, which is
3:15
Speaker 2: not a, there are not a lot of those folks
3:17
Speaker 2: in the Republican primary. And now she has three weeks
3:20
Speaker 2: to change that dynamic. Like expectations are on her side.
3:23
Speaker 2: If she can actually come in a close second by
3:26
Speaker 2: improving significantly her performance among Republican voters, then she has
3:31
Speaker 2: an argument to her donors to keep funding her through
3:33
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday, which is 10 days after that.
3:36
Speaker 1: It is just, beyond wild that people who think Joe
3:42
Speaker 1: Biden won the 2020 election are just a tiny fraction
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Speaker 1: of the Republican electorate. It's just un-fucking-real.
3:48
Speaker 2: And the Democratic thing is hard, too, because in 2012,
3:51
Speaker 2: the last time there was a Republican primary all on
3:54
Speaker 2: its own, which is, even though there was, I was half-kidding,
3:56
Speaker 2: there was technically a Democratic primary this time, only 2%
3:59
Speaker 2: of voters were Democrats. So we're probably behind the curve
4:03
Speaker 2: if we're trying to get a lot of Democrats to
4:05
Speaker 2: tip this thing for Nikki Haley.
4:07
Speaker 1: What do you think about that media tour she's on?
4:09
Speaker 1: She also, by the way, just did an interview with
4:12
Speaker 1: Jake Tapper right before we recorded where she said that
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Speaker 1: we will lose if we nominate Donald Trump and also
4:20
Speaker 1: hit him on how much money he's spent on legal fees.
4:23
Speaker 2: It's good she's doing it. I wrote a little thing
4:25
Speaker 2: in this little newsletter we like to call the message
4:27
Speaker 2: box about lessons Democrats can learn for running against MAGA
4:30
Speaker 2: candidates from all the failures of the Republicans trying to
4:32
Speaker 2: beat Trump. And one of them is you have to
4:34
Speaker 2: compete with him for attention. throughout the entire primary, DeSantis, Haley, Scott,
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Speaker 2: all of them just ceded the stage to Trump and
4:42
Speaker 2: let him dominate. And she's out there. She's working hard.
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Speaker 2: She's doing all these interviews. She's trying to say more
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Speaker 2: provocative things. She's trying to get attention and try to
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Speaker 2: get in people's mind space. And that's what you have
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Speaker 2: to do. So it's the right thing. The hard part
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Speaker 2: for her is she's not really welcome on the MAGA
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Speaker 2: media that is speaking to a lot of the base voters,
4:59
Speaker 2: but Fox and Friends is good. CBS is good, particularly
5:02
Speaker 2: in South Carolina where the voters are older and they
5:04
Speaker 2: probably see some of that stuff. And so This is
5:07
Speaker 2: all– all this stuff is things she should have been
5:10
Speaker 2: doing a year ago, but it's good she's doing it now.
5:13
Speaker 1: I talked about this with Tommy and Lovett on Tuesday's pod,
5:16
Speaker 1: but what do you think she's up to here? Do
5:18
Speaker 1: you think she believes she can win? Do you think
5:21
Speaker 1: she's just like, I want to be the runner-up with
5:25
Speaker 1: some delegates just in case? What do you think is
5:28
Speaker 1: happening here?
5:30
Speaker 2: I think every presidential campaign involves a tremendous amount of self-delusion.
5:36
Speaker 4: Right?
5:36
Speaker 2: You don't get in the race unless you think you
5:37
Speaker 2: can win and you know the odds that almost every
5:40
Speaker 2: single person who's going to run is going to fail.
5:43
Speaker 2: But I don't know that it's as strategic as I'm
5:45
Speaker 2: going to accumulate enough delegates to be able to take
5:48
Speaker 2: on Trump because, I mean, theoretically, she knows what the
5:51
Speaker 2: rules are. And if she does not perform well on
5:52
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday, she's going to get basically no delegates after
5:55
Speaker 2: that because almost all of the races transitioned after Super
6:00
Speaker 2: Tuesday transitioned to winner take all or winner take most.
6:03
Speaker 2: And so if Trump wins by one, he gets all
6:04
Speaker 2: the delegates. He wins by 50, he gets all the delegates.
6:06
Speaker 2: And so she gets less– there's less value in coming
6:10
Speaker 2: in second in terms of delegates. But I think it's–
6:12
Speaker 2: let's give this thing a shot. The memo they laid
6:15
Speaker 2: out with these 13 states that allow independents and Democrats,
6:19
Speaker 2: that's like a far-fetched plan, but it is a plan.
6:21
Speaker 2: And so if you can improve your performance with Republicans,
6:24
Speaker 2: I think the odds of that are quite long. But
6:26
Speaker 2: if she does, and she can combine that in those
6:28
Speaker 2: 13 states with a significant– independent turnout, doing very well there,
6:34
Speaker 2: then maybe she can cobble together some wins, and then
6:37
Speaker 2: you fight on to see what happens next, right? So
6:39
Speaker 2: it's like presidential primaries are a little bit like the
6:43
Speaker 2: NCAA tournament, which is just win in advance, win in advance,
6:47
Speaker 2: or at least, or in this case, come in a
6:49
Speaker 2: less distant second and maybe advance, which is kind of
6:51
Speaker 2: what the goal is here.
6:53
Speaker 1: I think she probably, I mean, to your point about
6:56
Speaker 1: competing for attention with Donald Trump, I also think there's
6:59
Speaker 1: probably part of her that likes that she's getting some attention.
7:02
Speaker 1: Of course. She's a politician. It's very hard for any
7:05
Speaker 1: Republican who's not named Donald Trump to ever get any attention.
7:08
Speaker 1: And now she's getting national attention. She's getting invited on
7:11
Speaker 1: all these shows. And whatever happens in 2024, then maybe
7:16
Speaker 1: she's thinking... I mean, I don't think she has a
7:19
Speaker 1: future in the Republican Party in 2028. But maybe if
7:23
Speaker 1: for some reason Donald Trump loses badly enough... in 2024,
7:27
Speaker 1: even if he loses at all, even if he ends
7:29
Speaker 1: up going to jail, gets convicted, whatever might happen, she
7:32
Speaker 1: could try to fight out again in 2028. I still
7:36
Speaker 1: don't think she'd have much of a chance with the
7:37
Speaker 1: base of the party the way it is right now,
7:39
Speaker 1: because it's still a MAGA base, even if there's no
7:41
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But that could be what she's thinking as well.
7:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, there is. I mean, if she goes through this
7:47
Speaker 2: and makes the argument that Republicans will lose if they
7:50
Speaker 2: nominate Donald Trump, and then Donald Trump loses, It is possible.
7:54
Speaker 2: I don't think it's likely, but it's possible. There is
7:56
Speaker 2: sort of a reckoning like the Democrats had after they
7:59
Speaker 2: lost in 1988. The Republicans almost had after they lost
8:02
Speaker 2: in 2012. And the party starts thinking a little bit
8:04
Speaker 2: differently about the kind of candidates they need to nominate.
8:07
Speaker 2: And she would potentially be well-positioned if there was some
8:12
Speaker 2: growing backbone in the non-MAGA part.
8:14
Speaker 5: Of the party.
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Speaker 2: So play it out to the strength. She has the
8:17
Speaker 2: money to be in it. I think she is enjoying
8:20
Speaker 2: the attention, enjoying running against Trump. So It really is
8:23
Speaker 2: play this till Super Tuesday and see what happens after that.
8:27
Speaker 2: And it's probably over at that point, but maybe not.
8:30
Speaker 1: One more question for you.
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Speaker 2: Okay.
8:32
Speaker 1: Do you think there's a chance that if she keeps
8:37
Speaker 1: going down this path, keeps hitting Trump harder and harder,
8:40
Speaker 1: that when she eventually gets out of the race, she will,
8:46
Speaker 1: she's not going to endorse Joe Biden, obviously. But do
8:48
Speaker 1: you think there's a chance she might just say, I'm
8:51
Speaker 1: not endorsing him? and I'm just walking away. I don't
8:55
Speaker 1: think there's much of a chance, but there's part of
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Speaker 1: me that think it's greater than zero now.
9:01
Speaker 2: I think if she believes her future is in Republican politics,
9:04
Speaker 2: she has to endorse Donald Trump. You can be lukewarm
9:08
Speaker 2: in how you campaign for him. You don't have to
9:12
Speaker 2: back him. You don't have to spout 2020 election lies.
9:15
Speaker 2: You don't have to support his future convictions or any
9:19
Speaker 2: of those things. But to sit on the sidelines, I
9:22
Speaker 2: think would forfeit her ability to run for president in
9:25
Speaker 2: the future if that's something she wants to do.
9:27
Speaker 1: Don't do it, Nikki. Don't do it. Just step away.
9:31
Speaker 1: I do think, I mean, Sarah Longwell has been making
9:34
Speaker 1: this point as well, but I do think if she
9:36
Speaker 1: inevitably does endorse Donald Trump or say that she's going
9:41
Speaker 1: to vote for him after she said all these horrible
9:43
Speaker 1: things about him, it is somewhat damaging to Biden in
9:47
Speaker 1: the general, because I think it does create a permission
9:50
Speaker 1: structure for a lot of these anti-Trump voters who have
9:53
Speaker 1: been with Haley to be like, oh, well, we voted
9:56
Speaker 1: for her. We wanted her. We don't like Trump, but
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Speaker 1: she's voting for Trump. Maybe I need to just come
10:00
Speaker 1: home and vote for Trump as well.
10:01
Speaker 4: Yeah.
10:01
Speaker 2: I think that's definitely true is that she would do...
10:03
Speaker 2: That sucks. I mean, it's hard. What does she really believe?
10:06
Speaker 2: Does she believe... I think she believes she's better than
10:09
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but I think she also
10:11
Speaker 2: believes Donald Trump is better than Joe Biden. And so.
10:13
Speaker 1: I think she does believe... And I think she... Which
10:15
Speaker 1: is wild, but.
10:16
Speaker 4: Yeah.
10:16
Speaker 1: So Trump is reportedly... Reportedly, we could all guess extremely
10:21
Speaker 1: annoyed that Haley hasn't dropped out yet. The Guardian reports
10:23
Speaker 1: that in one conversation, Trump used an epithet pejorative to
10:27
Speaker 1: women while describing her perceived disloyalty. So he called just
10:34
Speaker 1: a couple just a couple options there. Doesn't really doesn't
10:37
Speaker 1: sound like him, but he's pissed that he has to
10:40
Speaker 1: spend time and money in South Carolina instead of focusing
10:42
Speaker 1: on Joe Biden money he may not have. since his
10:45
Speaker 1: latest fundraising report shows his super PAC spent $ 30 million
10:49
Speaker 1: in legal fees to over 47 law firms and attorneys
10:53
Speaker 1: in just six months, which is at least 50% more
10:57
Speaker 1: than they spent on ads. You don't usually see campaigns
11:01
Speaker 1: spending more on lawyers than ads, but then again, you
11:03
Speaker 1: usually don't see campaigns where the candidate's facing 91 felony charges.
11:07
Speaker 1: You think this is a problem for Trump or is
11:09
Speaker 1: he going to have enough money?
11:11
Speaker 2: I think he will probably have enough money. to run
11:14
Speaker 2: a race, but he's not going to have as much
11:15
Speaker 2: money as he wanted because he's going to keep giving
11:16
Speaker 2: it to lawyers because his legal problems are not going
11:18
Speaker 2: to end anytime soon. At some point this spring, hopefully,
11:23
Speaker 2: the January 6th case starts, he's still going to have
11:26
Speaker 2: to be dealing with both the Florida case in terms
11:29
Speaker 2: of legal fees. You're paying lawyers on retainer. You have
11:32
Speaker 2: lawyers filing motions, filing briefs, gathering evidence. Also in the
11:36
Speaker 2: Fulton County case, And the Florida case where he's being
11:40
Speaker 2: tried for stealing classified secrets. So all those costs are
11:43
Speaker 2: going to continue to accrue throughout the election. And those
11:47
Speaker 2: are ads he won't be able to run, organizers he
11:48
Speaker 2: won't be able to hire, whatever else he would spend
11:53
Speaker 2: money on. But money is not zero-sum, but it's not
11:57
Speaker 2: entirely fungible either.
11:58
Speaker 1: $ 30 million. He's a real job creator. He's really doing
12:04
Speaker 1: his part to support the economy. It is wild. It
12:10
Speaker 1: is wild. I also wonder if there's an argument that
12:14
Speaker 1: Democrats should be making that, hey, Donald Trump's out there, again,
12:18
Speaker 1: only cares about himself when you're donating to Donald Trump.
12:22
Speaker 1: most likely you're donating, especially if you're donating to one
12:25
Speaker 1: of these PACs that's spending money on the legal fees,
12:28
Speaker 1: you're just donating to help this guy defend himself against
12:33
Speaker 1: 91 felony charges. That's where your hard-earned money is going.
12:37
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, worth $ 3 billion, you know, allegedly, and he's
12:43
Speaker 1: asking you for money so that you can help pay
12:45
Speaker 1: for his legal fees. And I realize that the base
12:48
Speaker 1: is probably just like, yeah, well, he's our Jesus, so
12:50
Speaker 1: we'll do anything for him. But It's fucking wild.
12:53
Speaker 2: I think there is an argument to make that this
12:56
Speaker 2: is yet another piece of evidence that Donald Trump is
12:58
Speaker 2: in this for himself, not for you. I think it's
13:01
Speaker 2: harder to persuade the people writing these checks or putting
13:05
Speaker 2: their credit card information into these sketchy texts they're getting
13:08
Speaker 2: to buy that argument for two reasons. One, the big
13:11
Speaker 2: donors are buying access and they don't care if their
13:14
Speaker 2: access check goes to Donald Trump's lawyer or to more mediocre,
13:17
Speaker 2: probably ineffective TV ads. They just want Donald Trump to
13:20
Speaker 2: know he... They wrote them a check. The small dollar donors,
13:24
Speaker 2: like there was this CBS YouGo poll last year where
13:26
Speaker 2: they asked people about the indictments, and a huge portion
13:30
Speaker 2: of voters who identify themselves as part of the MAGA movement,
13:32
Speaker 2: which I think has probably overlaps pretty nicely with people
13:35
Speaker 2: who are sending $ 10 to Donald Trump, view the indictments
13:39
Speaker 2: of Donald Trump as an attack on people like them.
13:41
Speaker 2: So this is like a righteous fight for them, and
13:43
Speaker 2: they're probably more than happy to fund it to help
13:45
Speaker 2: Donald Trump fight back against the deep state, the elites,
13:49
Speaker 2: big government, whatever else. But For the broader electorate, I've
13:53
Speaker 2: more and more come to the conclusion that our best
13:55
Speaker 2: message is essentially our most true message, which is that
13:58
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in this for himself to punish his enemies,
14:02
Speaker 2: to reward his rich friends, and to avoid legal accountability.
14:05
Speaker 2: That's why he's doing this. And this is another example
14:08
Speaker 2: of it.
14:09
Speaker 4: Yeah.
14:10
Speaker 1: He doesn't really care about running for president. He cares
14:12
Speaker 1: about running from prison. That's Donald Trump.
14:15
Speaker 2: Put that on a t-shirt.
14:29
Speaker 4: All right.
14:30
Speaker 1: The general election polar coaster has begun. I will use
14:33
Speaker 1: that as a chance to plug Crooked's new podcast of
14:36
Speaker 1: the same name, hosted by none other than Dan Pfeiffer.
14:40
Speaker 1: To hear all the good stuff, go sign up at crooked.com
14:43
Speaker 1: slash friends to be a friend of the pod subscriber,
14:45
Speaker 1: and you'll get to hear Dan's polar coaster podcast. When's
14:48
Speaker 1: the next episode, Dan?
14:50
Speaker 2: Next Thursday.
14:51
Speaker 1: Next Thursday.
14:51
Speaker 2: A week from yesterday.
14:53
Speaker 1: A week from yesterday.
14:54
Speaker 2: Today, we're recording this yesterday when you're listening to this,
14:56
Speaker 2: but a week from Thursday.
14:58
Speaker 1: Thursday. Listen to Polar Coaster. But since I'm an addict,
15:02
Speaker 1: we will talk a little bit about the polls today.
15:05
Speaker 1: On Wednesday morning, we got a series of horrendous Bloomberg
15:08
Speaker 1: Morning Consult polls that show Trump leading in every swing
15:11
Speaker 1: state by anywhere from three to eight points. But then
15:14
Speaker 1: on Wednesday afternoon, Quinnipiac saved the day with a poll
15:17
Speaker 1: showing Biden opening up a 50 to 44 lead over Trump,
15:21
Speaker 1: which represents a five-point swing towards Biden from their December poll.
15:25
Speaker 1: But then, Dan, just before we started recording today, CNN
15:29
Speaker 1: dropped a real stinker, uh, Trump 49 Biden 45. But
15:35
Speaker 1: if you look at the polling average over the last week,
15:37
Speaker 1: you can definitely see evidence that Biden is doing a
15:41
Speaker 1: bit better against Trump. The trends are starting to go
15:44
Speaker 1: a little bit in Biden's direction, but I don't know.
15:46
Speaker 1: Do you see any signal in all this noise or, uh,
15:49
Speaker 1: do I just need to go outside and touch some grass?
15:51
Speaker 2: Uh, Both, I think is the right answer here.
15:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is the right answer.
15:55
Speaker 2: I think at the most macro level, four months ago
16:00
Speaker 2: at the end of last year, sort of from the
16:01
Speaker 2: basically beginning of the fall to the end of the year,
16:05
Speaker 2: every poll that came out was bad for Biden. He
16:07
Speaker 2: was losing in almost all of them. All the numbers
16:10
Speaker 2: were bad. Trump seemed to be gaining strength. In the
16:13
Speaker 2: last month, we're starting to get a handful of polls
16:16
Speaker 2: that are good for Biden. Now, which polls are right,
16:18
Speaker 2: which polls are wrong? I can talk a little about
16:20
Speaker 2: why there's a gap between these polls. But the fact
16:23
Speaker 2: that we're seeing more good polls for Biden and the
16:25
Speaker 2: polling average is narrowing a bit, it's just a sign
16:27
Speaker 2: that I think at bare minimum, Biden has stabilized from
16:30
Speaker 2: where he was last fall. And maybe the combination of
16:35
Speaker 2: improved views of the economy, which we're seeing in some
16:38
Speaker 2: of these polls, the percentage of people who have a
16:41
Speaker 2: a good opinion in the economy is inching up, I
16:43
Speaker 2: think is the right way to put it. The consumer
16:45
Speaker 2: confidence numbers have gone way up in the University of
16:47
Speaker 2: Michigan survey. And so it's possible that as prices come down,
16:51
Speaker 2: Donald Trump gets in the news more. The election is
16:54
Speaker 2: clarifying people's minds, and that's helping Biden a little bit.
16:57
Speaker 2: More work to do, obviously, and it's still very early.
17:00
Speaker 2: I tried to figure out why these polls are so
17:02
Speaker 2: different from each other. And there are many reasons, but
17:05
Speaker 2: I'll give you the shortest version here. In the Quinnipiac poll,
17:09
Speaker 2: where Biden is winning by a decent margin, he is
17:12
Speaker 2: up 12 with independence. In the CNN poll, where he
17:15
Speaker 2: is down by four, he's losing independence by four. In
17:18
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg swing state poll, he's losing independence by eight.
17:24
Speaker 2: So between Quinnipiac and the Bloomberg Morning Consult swing state poll,
17:26
Speaker 2: you have a 20-point swing among independence. And that sort
17:29
Speaker 2: of explains the gap between those polls. Now, we have
17:32
Speaker 2: no idea which one of those is right. There's a
17:33
Speaker 2: little apples to oranges depending on voter screen and how
17:37
Speaker 2: you do it. But it's just I think all of
17:39
Speaker 2: this boils down to something we knew to be true
17:42
Speaker 2: last fall, we knew to be true now, and we
17:43
Speaker 2: assume will be true next fall, which is that this
17:46
Speaker 2: is going to be an incredibly close, very winnable election
17:49
Speaker 2: that will come down to 50,000 votes across six states, right?
17:55
Speaker 2: That's kind of what we're looking at. And what the
17:57
Speaker 2: polls say now doesn't really change that dynamic.
18:02
Speaker 1: They really are all over the place, though, in a
18:04
Speaker 1: way that– can't remember seeing in 2020. The other interesting
18:09
Speaker 1: thing about the Quinnipiac poll is he's winning Democrats like
18:12
Speaker 1: 96 to 2 in that poll. And I haven't seen
18:17
Speaker 1: that kind of margin with Democrats in other polls. So
18:21
Speaker 1: that would be good news in addition to what you
18:23
Speaker 1: mentioned about independence. And one reason to find hope in
18:26
Speaker 1: that Quinnipiac poll is it does show his approval rating
18:28
Speaker 1: is 4,155, which isn't good. But the fact that he
18:33
Speaker 1: has a 4,155 approval rating in the same poll that
18:36
Speaker 1: he's winning 50 to 44 over Trump is the kind
18:40
Speaker 1: of outcome you would hope for with his approval as
18:44
Speaker 1: low as it is and as low as it has
18:46
Speaker 1: been for the last two years now.
18:48
Speaker 4: Yeah.
18:48
Speaker 2: I firmly believe that Joe Biden could win reelection with
18:50
Speaker 2: a 41% approval rating. I'm not sure he can win
18:53
Speaker 2: it with a 38% approval rating, but the low 40s,
18:55
Speaker 2: given how people feel about this election, rise in polarization
19:00
Speaker 2: and negative partisanship, The 41, 42 is like 46, 47
19:05
Speaker 2: was four or five years, you know, a couple election
19:08
Speaker 2: cycles ago. And like 50 was in the early 2000s.
19:11
Speaker 2: It's just the universe of people you can get to
19:13
Speaker 2: say they approve of a candidate has come down. And
19:15
Speaker 2: so 41, I think, would be like if you're there,
19:18
Speaker 2: you're in the ballgame.
19:20
Speaker 1: I'll also say that we really need more swing state polls.
19:25
Speaker 1: We've had a dearth of swing state polls this season
19:28
Speaker 1: so far. And obviously those Bloomberg morning console polls are terrible,
19:33
Speaker 1: but like there were a few Pennsylvania polls out recently
19:36
Speaker 1: where Biden's in the lead in Pennsylvania. He's had a
19:39
Speaker 1: few good Wisconsin polls and we haven't had a lot
19:42
Speaker 1: of Arizona polls at all. Could use a lot more
19:46
Speaker 1: Michigan polls too. So I think we probably got to
19:50
Speaker 1: wait and see to get some high quality swing state
19:53
Speaker 1: polling to see exactly where we are right now, at least.
19:57
Speaker 2: My one tip for people who listen to Polar Coaster
20:01
Speaker 2: know this, but the number that I would look for
20:03
Speaker 2: in polls where they give you the cross tabs is
20:06
Speaker 2: share of Biden's 2020 vote for a share, Trump's share
20:10
Speaker 2: of his 2020 vote. In every poll dating back to
20:12
Speaker 2: that New York Times, Sienna poll that kicked off this
20:15
Speaker 2: whole panic attack, Trump has had about like a six-point
20:18
Speaker 2: advantage on that. And that's a better number for me
20:21
Speaker 2: than Democrats because it encompasses the independents who came to
20:23
Speaker 2: Biden in 2020 and those Trump-Biden voters that we have
20:27
Speaker 2: to win back over. And so if I didn't see
20:31
Speaker 2: that in the Quinnipiac poll where Biden was winning, but
20:33
Speaker 2: that's the one where I always look for is, is
20:35
Speaker 2: Biden making gains there? Because that's what he has to
20:37
Speaker 2: do to win is to And if he just gets
20:39
Speaker 2: up to the same number as Trump from his other
20:42
Speaker 2: 2020 vote, then Biden will almost certainly win because he
20:45
Speaker 2: won in 2020. Right.
20:47
Speaker 1: One thing you notice in all these polls is that
20:49
Speaker 1: the race gets a lot closer and often better for
20:51
Speaker 1: Trump when they ask people about potential third party candidates.
20:54
Speaker 1: Big question there, of course, is which candidates will end
20:57
Speaker 1: up on the ballot in which states. CNN just ran
21:00
Speaker 1: a long piece about no labels. TLDR is that the
21:03
Speaker 1: organization seems to be a bit of a mess. Maryland's
21:06
Speaker 1: former Republican Governor Larry Hogan reportedly left not because he's
21:10
Speaker 1: planning to run for president, which was the original speculation,
21:13
Speaker 1: but because he was pissed at no labels for not
21:16
Speaker 1: sharing info about their 2024 plans. Our good pal Joe
21:21
Speaker 1: Manchin is also annoyed with no labels for some of
21:25
Speaker 1: the same reasons, says it's sort of a mess, they
21:27
Speaker 1: don't know what they're doing. But he's still flirting with
21:30
Speaker 1: a run for president because he reportedly views himself as
21:33
Speaker 1: having quote, national icon potential.
21:39
Speaker 5: Sure, sure.
21:40
Speaker 1: And then there's RFK Jr., who, because he's having trouble
21:43
Speaker 1: getting on the ballot in states other than Utah, that's
21:46
Speaker 1: the only state where he's on the ballot right now,
21:48
Speaker 1: he now says he's considering running as the nominee of
21:51
Speaker 1: the Libertarian Party, which is on the ballot in every
21:55
Speaker 1: swing state. The darling of the anti-vax movement has about $ 5. 4
21:58
Speaker 1: million cash on hand. But his super PAC has nearly
22:03
Speaker 1: $ 15 million cash on hand thanks to a $ 15 million
22:06
Speaker 1: donation from banking heir Tim Mellon, who has also donated
22:10
Speaker 1: $ 10 million to, wait for it, Donald Trump. So I
22:15
Speaker 1: feel like these third party candidacies are the source of
22:18
Speaker 1: constant anxiety, mostly because they could tip the race to Trump,
22:21
Speaker 1: but also because we still have no idea in what
22:24
Speaker 1: states they'll be on the ballot. What's your take on
22:28
Speaker 1: the latest round of news? where the candidates are, what
22:31
Speaker 1: the ballot access situation is, and when we're going to
22:34
Speaker 1: know what's happening here.
22:37
Speaker 2: Well, it's all very confusing because we keep getting national
22:40
Speaker 2: polls testing all five candidates against each other, but they're
22:45
Speaker 2: not going to all be on all 50 ballots. And
22:48
Speaker 2: so that is very confusing. It's also confusing to test
22:52
Speaker 2: when we're testing swing state polls when we don't know
22:55
Speaker 2: which states they're going to be on the ballot. I
22:57
Speaker 2: think the short version here is that Jill Stein, we
22:59
Speaker 2: know that the Green Party nominee, likely to be Jill Stein,
23:01
Speaker 2: is going to be on the ballot in the very
23:03
Speaker 2: same states that she helped tip the election to Donald
23:06
Speaker 2: Trump in 2016. RFK Jr., we don't know where he's
23:09
Speaker 2: going to be on the ballot yet. $ 15 million in
23:12
Speaker 2: a super PAC and $ 5 million in his own account
23:15
Speaker 2: is enough to get on the ballot in a couple
23:18
Speaker 2: of places. It's not enough to run a 50-state ballot effort,
23:20
Speaker 2: but if he wants to get on the ballot in,
23:22
Speaker 2: I don't know, to pick six random states that sound
23:24
Speaker 2: a lot like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, then yeah,
23:28
Speaker 2: then maybe he could possibly do that. On a macro level,
23:32
Speaker 2: what is problematic here is pretty simple, which is Donald
23:35
Speaker 2: Trump has never gotten 47% of the national popular vote
23:39
Speaker 2: in either of his two presidential elections. And you can
23:43
Speaker 2: win a five-way race at 47%. You cannot win a
23:47
Speaker 2: two-way race at 47% because it has to add up
23:50
Speaker 2: to 100. And that doesn't work that way. And even
23:53
Speaker 2: if you look at this in Pennsylvania– In 2020, Donald
23:55
Speaker 2: Trump did one point better than he did in Pennsylvania
23:59
Speaker 2: in 2016, but he won in 16 and lost in
24:02
Speaker 2: 20 because in 16, about 3% of the vote went
24:05
Speaker 2: to Gary Johnson, Libertarian, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate.
24:09
Speaker 2: And so these candidates just lower the threshold for a
24:11
Speaker 2: candidate who has never proven to get above 47%. Joe
24:13
Speaker 2: Biden has proven he can get above 50% in some
24:16
Speaker 2: of these states and nationally. And so that obviously just
24:20
Speaker 2: strategically hurts Joe Biden. It's like pure math.
24:24
Speaker 5: Yeah.
24:24
Speaker 1: I mean, the no labels thing, I could see a
24:28
Speaker 1: scenario where it's just, it's such a mess and they
24:31
Speaker 1: can't because they need a Republican and a Democrat. So
24:36
Speaker 1: they need a unity ticket. They have been telling people
24:39
Speaker 1: that they want the Republican at the top of the ticket,
24:41
Speaker 1: which has pissed off a lot of potential Democratic options
24:46
Speaker 1: for that candidacy. And Manchin's basically like, He told CNN,
24:53
Speaker 1: the reporting in CNN was he thinks that they're sort
24:54
Speaker 1: of a mess, but that he'd use them as a
24:56
Speaker 1: ballot access organization because they're getting on the ballot in
24:58
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of places. And then he'd just bring
25:00
Speaker 1: in his own staff. I don't know. I don't. Do
25:04
Speaker 1: you think Manchin does it?
25:06
Speaker 2: I would be surprised. But what do I know? I mean,
25:09
Speaker 2: I guess. Who am I to question a self-proclaimed national icon?
25:15
Speaker 1: That is someone who spent way too much time. On
25:17
Speaker 1: the Sunday shows. Thinking that he's a national icon. Although
25:22
Speaker 1: he's traveling around the country now. So now he's hearing
25:24
Speaker 1: from people. He's going to events. People are like, please,
25:27
Speaker 1: please run Joe Manchin. We're centrist just like you. So
25:30
Speaker 1: he's probably hearing all the wrong things. But I don't know.
25:33
Speaker 1: It seems like No Label's plan was originally to have
25:36
Speaker 1: an in-person convention. Then they were going to do a
25:39
Speaker 1: virtual convention. Now they're not sure if they're going to
25:41
Speaker 1: do a virtual convention. But they keep saying that by mid-March...
25:45
Speaker 1: that's when they will decide at some convention or decide
25:48
Speaker 1: what the potential unity ticket would be. But we still
25:51
Speaker 1: haven't heard any reports that there are actual Republican and
25:55
Speaker 1: Democratic candidates seriously looking at this or seriously being considered
25:59
Speaker 1: by No Labels. So it's still sort of a big
26:01
Speaker 1: question mark with the No Labels thing.
26:03
Speaker 2: I mean, their ballot access operation is well-funded and well-executed.
26:06
Speaker 2: They're on the ballot in a bunch of places. Now,
26:07
Speaker 2: a lot of those places are states that we're not
26:09
Speaker 2: overly worried about in the general election, like Hawaii, for example.
26:13
Speaker 1: Right. The ones I think to worry about are they're
26:17
Speaker 1: on the ballot in Arizona, Nevada, which would be enough
26:19
Speaker 1: to fuck up the election, Maine, which splits its electoral
26:23
Speaker 1: votes so they could always win the second congressional district,
26:26
Speaker 1: which is more conservative than Maine. They could screw things
26:28
Speaker 1: up there. So those are the states to worry about.
26:32
Speaker 2: I worry about Oregon, too, because they're on the ballot
26:33
Speaker 2: in Oregon. And Nader almost fucked up Oregon for Gore.
26:38
Speaker 2: Gore was campaigning in Portland right before the election in 2000,
26:41
Speaker 2: which is not a thing a Democrat wants to be doing.
26:43
Speaker 2: And it has a history of independent candidates. We had
26:46
Speaker 2: this independent candidate who ran for governor who didn't win,
26:49
Speaker 2: but took a big chunk of vote. And so just
26:51
Speaker 2: across the board, not great. You're exactly right. Where the
26:55
Speaker 2: no labels thing falls apart is can they get people
26:58
Speaker 2: to actually join this effort who seem credible? And it's
27:03
Speaker 2: just worth noting that this no labels thing is sketchy
27:06
Speaker 2: as hell. They want to run a presidential candidate, but
27:09
Speaker 2: they refuse to declare themselves as a political party Because
27:12
Speaker 2: for legal purposes, if they were to do that, they'd
27:14
Speaker 2: be required to disclose their donors. And they want to
27:17
Speaker 2: be able to fund this whole thing, all this ballot access,
27:19
Speaker 2: all this research, all this messaging, without ever having to
27:22
Speaker 2: say which billionaires wrote these checks to them. And that
27:26
Speaker 2: is just the height of corrupt sketchiness.
27:30
Speaker 1: Well, and also, they know that it's a messaging and
27:32
Speaker 1: political problem because a successful third party... candidacy is going
27:37
Speaker 1: to be like raging against the establishment or I'm independent
27:41
Speaker 1: of all the moneyed interests in Washington. And no labels
27:45
Speaker 1: is the opposite of that. So anyone they put up
27:49
Speaker 1: is going to be like very establishment, well-funded by a
27:53
Speaker 1: lot of billionaires and a lot of corporate interests likely. So,
27:56
Speaker 1: you know, that's going to be a problem for them.
27:59
Speaker 1: Cornel West is tested in a lot of these polls,
28:01
Speaker 1: but he is currently on the ballot nowhere. because remember
28:04
Speaker 1: he was flirting with the Green Party nomination and then
28:07
Speaker 1: decided to just do an independent candidacy. So, so far
28:09
Speaker 1: there is no, Cornel West isn't on the ballot anywhere.
28:12
Speaker 1: And the thing to worry about with RFK Jr. and
28:14
Speaker 1: the Libertarian Party flirtation is they are on the ballot
28:18
Speaker 1: in every single swing state. Libertarian Party's on the ballot
28:22
Speaker 1: in most states in the country, but definitely all the
28:24
Speaker 1: swing states. Their deal is they have a convention in
28:28
Speaker 1: May where the delegates to the convention pick the candidate.
28:31
Speaker 1: And there's already been, bet you didn't know this, a
28:34
Speaker 1: primary season going on. Like there was an Iowa primary
28:38
Speaker 1: for the Libertarian Party. So they have a bunch of
28:40
Speaker 1: candidates running already. So I don't know how RFK Jr.
28:43
Speaker 1: does this, but I do think if somehow he convinces
28:46
Speaker 1: all the delegates at the Libertarian Convention to make him
28:49
Speaker 1: the nominee of the Libertarian Party, that would be worrisome
28:52
Speaker 1: just because he has the name recognition. He has a
28:55
Speaker 1: super PAC that's now funded by some Trump donors. And yeah,
29:01
Speaker 1: that would worry me.
29:02
Speaker 2: You want to hear an RFK stat that would really
29:04
Speaker 2: worry you? Well, this is more than just RFK. So
29:05
Speaker 2: this is a third-party stat that should scare the crap
29:07
Speaker 2: out of us. And this is courtesy of John Della Volpe,
29:10
Speaker 2: the pollster who's been on this podcast before. In the
29:13
Speaker 2: Quinnipiac poll among 18 to 29-year-olds in a head-to-head between
29:16
Speaker 2: Biden and Trump, Biden's winning by 24. When you test
29:19
Speaker 2: the five-way with Biden, Trump, Kennedy, West, and Stein, Biden's
29:23
Speaker 2: lead drops to plus two.
29:26
Speaker 1: Wait, I'm sorry.
29:27
Speaker 2: Quinnipiac poll? Among 18 to 29-year-olds.
29:31
Speaker 1: Was that the one that we were just talking about?
29:33
Speaker 4: Yeah. Oh, yeah.
29:35
Speaker 2: Because the lead is smaller in a five-way. The ballot
29:41
Speaker 2: access question is the big question with RFK Jr., for sure.
29:44
Speaker 2: I will say that there's a lot happening underneath with
29:47
Speaker 2: RFK Jr. He is making the rounds. He's doing a
29:51
Speaker 2: lot of– obviously, he's built a support network among these
29:54
Speaker 2: rich tech folks, like the all-in podcast type world. But also,
30:00
Speaker 2: My wife pointed this out to me the other day,
30:01
Speaker 2: which is he's constantly doing interviews with wellness podcasts and
30:06
Speaker 2: influencers all the time, talking about things that are not anti-vax,
30:09
Speaker 2: although that does come up, but our food system and
30:13
Speaker 2: how people are being poisoned by chemicals and all this
30:15
Speaker 2: other stuff. There is something to watch, and there's going
30:22
Speaker 2: to have to be an effort if he does get
30:23
Speaker 2: ballot access to really define him for voters. Because in
30:27
Speaker 2: a world which in which a lot of people are
30:29
Speaker 2: unhappy with the choices at the top of the ballot,
30:31
Speaker 2: he becomes a vehicle for that anti-establishment vote.
30:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's something to watch. And hopefully we will know
30:39
Speaker 1: what's going on. I mean, we will know what's going
30:40
Speaker 1: on probably in the next couple of months because at
30:42
Speaker 1: some point we get into deadlines. Okay, a few quick
30:45
Speaker 1: notes before we go to break. On last week's episode
30:47
Speaker 1: of Pod Save the People, DeRay interviewed Deputy Commerce Secretary
30:50
Speaker 1: Don Graves about President Biden's economic record and how to
30:53
Speaker 1: push back on the Biden haters in your life. Check
30:55
Speaker 1: out this great conversation and more episodes of Pod Save
30:57
Speaker 1: the People wherever you get your podcasts. And on a
31:00
Speaker 1: special bonus episode of Strict Scrutiny that is out today,
31:03
Speaker 1: the host talked to E. Jean Carroll and her lawyer,
31:06
Speaker 1: Roberta Kaplan, about their big victory holding Donald Trump accountable
31:09
Speaker 1: in court. Here's a clip.
31:11
Speaker 6: Can you give our listeners a sense of just how
31:15
Speaker 6: outside of the band of normal defendant behavior, the behavior
31:20
Speaker 6: of Donald Trump during this trial was different?
31:22
Speaker 7: In any trial, someone behaving the way Donald Trump behaved,
31:26
Speaker 7: making nasty comments to his lawyers, shaking his head. When
31:30
Speaker 7: we were picking the jury, one of the questions was,
31:33
Speaker 7: who believes that the 2020 election was stolen? He raised
31:36
Speaker 7: his hand when we were picking the jury. Literally acting
31:40
Speaker 7: like a seven-year-old boy who has behavior problems in elementary school.
31:46
Speaker 7: That's how he was acting.
31:48
Speaker 1: Again, the full interview is out now. Search for Strict
31:50
Speaker 1: Scrutiny wherever you get your podcasts. When we come back,
31:53
Speaker 1: Dan talks to Senator Sherrod Brown.
32:08
Speaker 2: Joining me now is the senior senator from the great
32:09
Speaker 2: state of Ohio, Sherrod Brown. Senator, welcome back to Pod
32:12
Speaker 2: Save America.
32:12
Speaker 4: You were going to say great senator from the– you
32:13
Speaker 4: were going to say great senator.
32:14
Speaker 2: I think that was implied by senior senator.
32:16
Speaker 5: And then you didn't say that. Okay, go ahead.
32:18
Speaker 2: I guess great senator from the– great and senior senator
32:21
Speaker 2: from the great state of Ohio, Sherrod Brown. Senator Brown,
32:24
Speaker 2: welcome back to Pod Save America.
32:25
Speaker 5: Dan, good to be back.
32:27
Speaker 2: So we're recording this interview a few days before the
32:29
Speaker 2: one-year anniversary of the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.
32:33
Speaker 2: I know you have spent a lot of time with
32:35
Speaker 2: the people of that community. working on what happened there,
32:38
Speaker 2: working on the response. Can you tell us what things
32:39
Speaker 2: are like on the ground a year later?
32:40
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've been to East Palestine eight times, meeting with
32:45
Speaker 4: all kinds of people affected, meeting with farmers, meeting with
32:48
Speaker 4: small business people, meeting with people at a health center,
32:53
Speaker 4: meeting with people just generally walking the streets. My job
32:57
Speaker 4: for this last year is two things. One is to
32:59
Speaker 4: help people get their lives back to normal, and that's
33:03
Speaker 4: helping them on testing the water, helping them on making
33:06
Speaker 4: sure their food is safe, helping them get the kind
33:10
Speaker 4: of help from Norfolk Southern, which they promised and have
33:12
Speaker 4: entirely delivered on, and to make sure this doesn't happen again.
33:15
Speaker 4: We have seen in the last year, in about the
33:17
Speaker 4: last year, we've seen in just my state alone, derailments
33:21
Speaker 4: in Sandusky and Springfield and Ravenna and, well, East Palestine, obviously,
33:27
Speaker 4: a couple others around the state. We've also seen the
33:30
Speaker 4: railroads in their arrogance not keep up not maintain their
33:35
Speaker 4: bridges and tracks that they own all over the state.
33:38
Speaker 4: So you'll see in Cleveland or you'll see in Butler County,
33:41
Speaker 4: pieces of bridge fall down on the road where cars
33:47
Speaker 4: pass underneath because the railroads aren't investing the way they should.
33:50
Speaker 4: And they've been a powerful interest group for 100 years.
33:53
Speaker 4: I mean, they've been railroads and Wall Street and coal
33:56
Speaker 4: and oil companies, some of the most powerful interest groups
33:59
Speaker 4: in the country forever.
34:00
Speaker 5: And that's why we haven't been able to get this
34:02
Speaker 5: bill passed.
34:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I want to ask you about that. Tell
34:04
Speaker 2: us a little bit about the bill you worked on
34:05
Speaker 2: with Senator Vance and what exactly is holding it up
34:09
Speaker 2: and what the prospects are for possible passage in the
34:12
Speaker 2: near term.
34:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we're going to get it passed.
34:15
Speaker 4: I've been in enough fights here to restore pensions for
34:18
Speaker 4: people who lost because of Wall Street greed, lost their pensions, 100,000
34:21
Speaker 4: union workers. It took us five or six years. Child
34:24
Speaker 4: tax credit took us even longer than that and it
34:27
Speaker 4: changed people's lives and we're doing it again. So I'm
34:30
Speaker 4: not giving up on this. I'm hopeful it passes in
34:32
Speaker 4: the next two or three weeks. I'm hopeful it'll pass
34:35
Speaker 4: in the House. We're doing everything we can. The problem
34:37
Speaker 4: in the House is the railroad lobby is really close
34:40
Speaker 4: to the Speaker of the House. So we know that
34:42
Speaker 4: and we've got to overcome that. Primarily the bill, these
34:45
Speaker 4: trains go through towns and literally millions of Ohioans in
34:50
Speaker 4: a state of 12 million, Dan, as you know, live
34:53
Speaker 4: fairly near a railroad track.
34:54
Speaker 5: My wife and I live maybe 300 yards from a
34:56
Speaker 5: railroad track in Cleveland. So these trains pass by all
35:00
Speaker 5: the time.
35:00
Speaker 4: Nobody really knows what cargo they're carrying. They don't have
35:04
Speaker 4: to register. They don't have to notify the state or
35:06
Speaker 4: the community when they pass through carrying liquid natural gas
35:10
Speaker 4: or some kind of chemicals that they carried in East Palestine.
35:15
Speaker 4: So if there's a derailment, everybody has to flee. Everybody
35:18
Speaker 4: has to move at least temporarily until they find out
35:21
Speaker 4: what's in the train. So there's that problem there. The
35:24
Speaker 4: railroads haven't implemented the safety devices that they could.
35:28
Speaker 5: In terms of detection of heat in the wheel bearings.
35:32
Speaker 4: In the railroads, most bizarre of all, the railroads are
35:35
Speaker 4: insisting that they should only have to have one engineer
35:38
Speaker 4: on these trains. These trains are two, two and a
35:40
Speaker 4: half miles, sometimes three miles long. They carry, sometimes they
35:44
Speaker 4: pull 200 or more cars. And I asked the CEO
35:49
Speaker 4: of CSX when he came to see me, I said,
35:52
Speaker 4: did you fly up here?
35:53
Speaker 5: And he said, yeah. And I said, did you... Do
35:55
Speaker 5: you look in the cockpit?
35:56
Speaker 4: Was there one pilot or two? I mean, nobody you
35:58
Speaker 4: wouldn't get on a plane with one pilot. And this
36:01
Speaker 4: railroad should be no different in terms of public safety.
36:04
Speaker 4: So we're fighting on that.
36:06
Speaker 5: We're going to win.
36:06
Speaker 4: The public overwhelmingly is with us on this. But frankly,
36:10
Speaker 4: I mean, every Democrat's going to vote for it. We
36:13
Speaker 4: got to get 10 Republicans and we keep.
36:15
Speaker 5: Pushing for that.
36:17
Speaker 2: The White House announced that President Biden is going to
36:19
Speaker 2: make this long awaited visit to East Palestine next month.
36:22
Speaker 2: What do you hope to accomplish with his presence there?
36:25
Speaker 4: Well, I hope that he calls for and pushes and
36:29
Speaker 4: gets the administration to do regular sort of baseline safety
36:34
Speaker 4: checks to begin with in terms of health care. We
36:38
Speaker 4: know that, I mean, I met dozens of people who
36:41
Speaker 4: had pretty bad looking rashes on their arms and their
36:44
Speaker 4: necks and faces in some cases from ingesting this toxic
36:49
Speaker 4: whatever it was stuff that people didn't really know. I
36:52
Speaker 4: want to see what happens longer term for people there.
36:55
Speaker 4: I want the president to make sure we do regular
36:58
Speaker 4: water testing and soil testing, farmland and in town. I
37:04
Speaker 4: want the president mostly to listen to what people have
37:08
Speaker 4: to say. I mean, what I was able to do
37:10
Speaker 4: in my eight trips there is bring information back to
37:13
Speaker 4: pass this bill to help them in a variety of
37:16
Speaker 4: ways to get EPA and FDA to respond. One thing
37:20
Speaker 4: we recently found out was that a number of people
37:24
Speaker 4: who have gotten reimbursement or at least some payment in
37:28
Speaker 4: dollars from Norfolk Southern, that they might be hit with
37:31
Speaker 4: a tax bill. So the bill that passed last night,
37:34
Speaker 4: overwhelming bipartisan vote in the House, included a provision that
37:39
Speaker 4: the dollars they got from Norfolk Southern to East Palestine
37:42
Speaker 4: won't be taxed. It's not a big issue nationally like
37:44
Speaker 4: the child tax credit or the R & D tax break,
37:48
Speaker 4: but it's a really big issue in eastern Ohio.
37:51
Speaker 2: You brought up the child tax credit, the bill that
37:52
Speaker 2: passed last night. I know you worked for a long
37:54
Speaker 2: time on the child tax credit. It passed the House.
37:58
Speaker 2: Now there's reports that Senate Republicans may be the problem here.
38:01
Speaker 2: What are the prospects for getting this bill through the
38:02
Speaker 2: Senate quickly?
38:04
Speaker 4: Well, it passed in the House with 370 votes, I think.
38:08
Speaker 4: Every House member in Ohio except one voted for it,
38:12
Speaker 4: so it's got really good bipartisan support. Corporate America wants
38:17
Speaker 4: it because it will mean jobs for small businesses and
38:20
Speaker 4: research and development and keeping those jobs in the United States,
38:23
Speaker 4: keeping the intellectual property, if you will, in the United
38:25
Speaker 4: States from that R & D. And the families of 575,000 children, 150,000
38:32
Speaker 4: black children in Ohio will benefit from this.
38:35
Speaker 5: It's a big deal.
38:37
Speaker 4: The Wall Street Journal's opposed it, of course, but it's
38:40
Speaker 4: got very broad support. And I think that senators will
38:44
Speaker 4: listen of both parties, will listen the way House members
38:47
Speaker 4: of both parties listen.
38:48
Speaker 2: That's good. That's great. It would be a huge accomplishment
38:50
Speaker 2: to get something done in this election year with this
38:52
Speaker 2: Republican House. So that's a big deal.
38:55
Speaker 4: Yeah. Six months ago, nobody thought we'd get a tax bill.
38:58
Speaker 4: And what happened was a number of us encouraging Democratic
39:02
Speaker 4: colleagues when business comes in and says they want the
39:06
Speaker 4: R & D tax credit that we said every time,
39:10
Speaker 4: you know, I'm for it because I think it does
39:12
Speaker 4: help business growth.
39:13
Speaker 5: I think it helps entrepreneurs.
39:15
Speaker 4: I think it helps keep these jobs in the U.S.,
39:17
Speaker 4: But the answer from all of us over time, and
39:20
Speaker 4: Ron Wyden really led on this, was if you want
39:23
Speaker 4: that tax break, you've got to support the child tax credit. Otherwise,
39:27
Speaker 4: nothing's going to happen. And over time, we build up.
39:30
Speaker 4: enough interest in a tax bill and enough interest across
39:33
Speaker 4: party lines from the child tax credit.
39:35
Speaker 2: It's really impressive stuff. Maybe in less optimistic Capitol Hill news,
39:40
Speaker 2: a lot of your colleagues were working on a border
39:42
Speaker 2: security bipartisan deal that was hopefully going to allow Congress
39:46
Speaker 2: to pass aid for Ukraine and Israel. That seems to
39:50
Speaker 2: have hit the skids in the Senate. What do you
39:53
Speaker 2: see happening there? And if a border security deal is
39:56
Speaker 2: not passed, do you see any path for aid for
39:59
Speaker 2: Ukraine to get through this year?
40:04
Speaker 5: I don't give up easily, as I said in the
40:05
Speaker 5: last question.
40:06
Speaker 4: I've watched Senator Lankford and Senator Murphy, Republican from Oklahoma,
40:12
Speaker 4: Democrat from Connecticut, sort of assiduously go through this and
40:17
Speaker 4: make this border agreement work. I think they essentially.
40:21
Speaker 5: Have a deal.
40:23
Speaker 4: I can't imagine that the Senate, the House is so
40:27
Speaker 4: dysfunctional that they would turn their back on it after
40:31
Speaker 4: demanding we won't do anything else until you do the border.
40:34
Speaker 4: I would say presidents of both parties have failed on
40:37
Speaker 4: the border.
40:37
Speaker 5: We haven't done what we need to do.
40:39
Speaker 4: Part of it is sending enough resources there at the
40:42
Speaker 4: points of entry to keep the fentanyl out. And most
40:44
Speaker 4: of the people bringing fentanyl out are American citizens going
40:47
Speaker 4: back and forth across the border. We need to enforce
40:50
Speaker 4: those rules and laws.
40:51
Speaker 5: We have better.
40:52
Speaker 4: Detection equipment than we've ever had to find this stuff.
40:56
Speaker 4: It's small quantities of a poison that can kill thousands
41:00
Speaker 4: of people, as you know, Dan.
41:02
Speaker 5: But we do that right.
41:04
Speaker 4: And I mean, I just can't imagine they're going to
41:06
Speaker 4: continue to block that when they've been calling out for that.
41:10
Speaker 4: And the pressure from uh, internationally, the pressure from, from
41:15
Speaker 4: people that care about our national security and, and Ukraine.
41:18
Speaker 4: I mean, what people don't think about, I'm not sure
41:21
Speaker 4: that we all, many people in this country pay enough
41:24
Speaker 4: attention to history, but if, if we allow Russia to
41:27
Speaker 4: overrun Ukraine, it means they're right up against the border
41:30
Speaker 4: of a NATO country. And, uh, you know, in your
41:33
Speaker 4: years in the Obama administration, we all know they're paying
41:36
Speaker 4: attention to this, that if NATO's ever attacked, every country
41:40
Speaker 4: has got us in troops and that's, um, That's a
41:42
Speaker 4: really scary thought of a land war. We have right
41:45
Speaker 4: now the biggest land war in Europe since World War II,
41:48
Speaker 4: and that is just lunacy. So I think cooler heads prevail.
41:53
Speaker 4: We're doing it in the Senate. A number of Senate
41:56
Speaker 4: Republicans are really strong on this. McConnell wants to do
41:59
Speaker 4: this on the border. All of us know this is
42:04
Speaker 4: a major national security issue all the way around.
42:07
Speaker 2: You're running for reelection in Ohio, a state that has
42:09
Speaker 2: been difficult for Democrats in recent cycles, although you won
42:13
Speaker 2: relatively handily in 2018. Your campaign launched your first ad
42:18
Speaker 2: this morning. Talk to me a little bit how you
42:21
Speaker 2: plan to run for reelection in Ohio in a year
42:25
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump or a Republican at the top of
42:27
Speaker 2: the ballot.
42:29
Speaker 4: I run for office the way I always have, and
42:31
Speaker 4: it's really about what we do and what we have accomplished.
42:34
Speaker 4: I wear in my lapel a depiction of a canary
42:38
Speaker 4: in a birdcage given to me in a workers' Memorial
42:40
Speaker 4: Day rally some 25 years ago. The mine workers took
42:43
Speaker 4: the canary down to the mines. If the canary was
42:47
Speaker 4: on his own, he had no union strong enough or
42:49
Speaker 4: no government that cared enough to protect him. And so
42:53
Speaker 4: it reminds me, always reminds me of whose side I'm on.
42:58
Speaker 4: I've worn this pen, as I said, for 25 years.
43:00
Speaker 4: When you come to the Senate, they give you a
43:02
Speaker 4: really nice looking, cool, expensive looking piece of jewelry. And
43:06
Speaker 4: I wore that for about a week, and I took
43:07
Speaker 4: it off and put the canary pin back on because
43:09
Speaker 4: it really does keep me focused on workers, whether you
43:13
Speaker 4: punch a clock or swipe a badge, whether you work
43:15
Speaker 4: for tips, whether you're working in an office as a
43:17
Speaker 4: data entry person. It doesn't matter what you do. You're
43:21
Speaker 4: contributing to society. You ought to be paid, and if
43:23
Speaker 4: you love this country, you fight for the people who
43:25
Speaker 4: make it work, and it's only who's side you're on.
43:28
Speaker 4: I don't look at politics as sort of this left
43:31
Speaker 4: or right on the spectrum. I look at it as
43:33
Speaker 4: who's side you're on, and it means taking on the
43:35
Speaker 4: drug companies and bringing the price of drugs down. It
43:37
Speaker 4: means taking on Wall Street and making them accountable on
43:40
Speaker 4: trade agreements and on what they did on pensions. It
43:43
Speaker 4: means taking on interest groups. That means taking on the
43:47
Speaker 4: railroads and the abuse and the damage they did to
43:50
Speaker 4: a community in my state. We can't let them do
43:52
Speaker 4: it again.
43:53
Speaker 5: It's pretty simple, frankly.
43:54
Speaker 2: Obviously, the economy is always a top issue, but people's
43:56
Speaker 2: frustration with the economy was incredibly high over recent years,
43:59
Speaker 2: strictly in the 2022 election with inflation going up. There
44:03
Speaker 2: have been some signs in consumer confidence and maybe in
44:06
Speaker 2: some polling that shows that the outlook is brightening a
44:08
Speaker 2: little bit. What are you hearing from Ohioans about how
44:11
Speaker 2: they feel about the economy right now?
44:13
Speaker 4: Well, there's always concern about the price of things. And
44:17
Speaker 4: the price is higher than it was three years ago.
44:20
Speaker 4: I hear people say inflation has become.
44:23
Speaker 5: Lower, and it is. But people are concerned with prices.
44:27
Speaker 4: And it's clear to me that when you go to
44:29
Speaker 4: the grocery store, If you go to Dave's supermarket, a
44:31
Speaker 4: union supermarket in Cleveland, you're paying higher prices in large
44:36
Speaker 4: part because you're paying for stock buybacks and you're paying
44:40
Speaker 4: for executive bonuses and compensation.
44:43
Speaker 5: I mean, that's what.
44:44
Speaker 4: Drove prices more than anything was corporate greed. Things as
44:48
Speaker 4: we came out of the pandemic, input costs were a
44:53
Speaker 4: little bit up. But big corporations, especially transportation companies and
44:57
Speaker 4: meatpacking companies and drug companies, And oil companies use that
45:01
Speaker 4: to raise their prices. And it really was predatory practices
45:06
Speaker 4: by large corporations that contributed so much to this. So
45:09
Speaker 4: that's why you go after the drug companies to bring
45:11
Speaker 4: drug prices down. You go after the insurance companies and
45:14
Speaker 4: the oil companies, and we'll see a better country.
45:18
Speaker 5: As a result.
45:18
Speaker 2: Do you get the sense that people are feeling a
45:20
Speaker 2: little bit better about the economy as prices have come
45:22
Speaker 2: down some, even if they're still higher than they were?
45:23
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think people are feeling better.
45:26
Speaker 4: But I also see I mean, I walked a picket
45:28
Speaker 4: line in Toledo back during the strike, the Stellantis, the
45:33
Speaker 4: old Chrysler plant is called Stellantis now.
45:35
Speaker 5: And as I'm walking the picket line.
45:37
Speaker 4: I'm meeting people that are just started working. I mean,
45:44
Speaker 4: some were new workers, some had been there 20 years,
45:46
Speaker 4: but the CEOs were making literally 800 times what an
45:52
Speaker 4: entry-level worker at Chrysler was making. So prices are still
45:55
Speaker 4: too high, but prices are still too high in large
45:58
Speaker 4: part because of corporate greed. And there are not enough
46:01
Speaker 4: around here that take that on. And people always know,
46:04
Speaker 4: I'll take them on, whether it's a bad trade agreement
46:06
Speaker 4: that costs jobs in my hometown of Mansfield or Springfield
46:10
Speaker 4: or Akron, or whether it's drug companies overcharging people, or
46:15
Speaker 4: whether it's banks and their junk fees that cost people
46:18
Speaker 4: a whole lot of money.
46:19
Speaker 2: Do you have some legislative or policy proposals that you're
46:21
Speaker 2: pushing to tackle to make it harder for these corporations
46:25
Speaker 2: to be so greedy?
46:27
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, on the one end of it,
46:30
Speaker 4: that's what the child tax credit is about, to make
46:32
Speaker 4: it easier for large swaths of people in my state,
46:36
Speaker 4: particularly people with kids.
46:37
Speaker 5: But beyond that, to be able to.
46:40
Speaker 4: Deal with those prices, it means a better federal tax policy.
46:44
Speaker 4: It means what we've done on drug prices, that we've
46:47
Speaker 4: limited the cost of insulin to $ 35 per month. We've
46:51
Speaker 4: limited the out-of-pocket cost for seniors to $ 2, 000 per month.
46:57
Speaker 4: for the year. We've also gone after stock buybacks with
47:02
Speaker 4: the stock buyback tax, which probably will be high enough
47:06
Speaker 4: that some of the companies won't do these stock buybacks.
47:10
Speaker 4: One of the other things we've done is taking on
47:12
Speaker 4: landlords increasingly in our cities, and not just cities. We've
47:16
Speaker 4: seen kind of Wall Street predators come up and buy
47:20
Speaker 4: lots of homes, raise rentals, and essentially not keep these
47:25
Speaker 4: properties up. But those companies all get to deduct their
47:31
Speaker 4: mortgage the way you do in your personal home, Dan.
47:33
Speaker 4: So the way we will do this predatory lending act
47:38
Speaker 4: is to stop them from doing that and making it
47:40
Speaker 4: much less likely they're coming into our cities to do that.
47:46
Speaker 2: There's a Republican primary, folks running for the opportunity to
47:51
Speaker 2: hopefully be beaten by you. They The one thing that
47:54
Speaker 2: they all have in common is very extreme positions on abortion.
47:58
Speaker 2: Several of them support bans with no exceptions, either for
48:01
Speaker 2: rape or incest. Talk to me a little bit about
48:03
Speaker 2: the role you think abortion is going to play in
48:05
Speaker 2: this campaign, especially given the response in the Ohio constitutional
48:08
Speaker 2: amendment last year.
48:10
Speaker 4: Yeah, the entire Republican Party now in Ohio is pretty
48:15
Speaker 4: much for a national abortion ban. They passed a terrible
48:18
Speaker 4: six-week abortion ban. They called it the heartbeat bill overwhelmingly
48:21
Speaker 4: in the legislature. then Ohioans fought back. We got 700,000
48:27
Speaker 4: people signed petition to go to the ballot for a
48:31
Speaker 4: constitutional amendment for abortion rights. We then saw that then
48:37
Speaker 4: the Secretary of State and the legislature tried to change
48:41
Speaker 4: the rules, one, making it harder to vote, second, to
48:44
Speaker 4: change the threshold instead of 50% plus one, to carry
48:47
Speaker 4: a ballot issue, making it 60%. We defeated that in
48:51
Speaker 4: a special election in August decisively. Then in November, Ohio
48:54
Speaker 4: passed a constitutional amendment, as you mentioned, passed it by
48:59
Speaker 4: 13 points. Now, when Roe was overturned, my three opponents
49:03
Speaker 4: and a number of others celebrated the overturning of Roe
49:07
Speaker 4: and then began to pass more and more restrictive legislation.
49:10
Speaker 4: Last November, we blew a hole in that by passing
49:13
Speaker 4: the constitutional amendment for abortion rights. All three of my
49:17
Speaker 4: Republican opponents, one of them will come out of the
49:19
Speaker 4: march process in a couple of months as the nominee,
49:22
Speaker 4: but all three of them are for a national abortion ban.
49:25
Speaker 4: So it's not going to be perhaps the most salient
49:28
Speaker 4: issue we talked about, but it's going to be the
49:30
Speaker 4: contrast will be clear. And all three of them are
49:34
Speaker 4: kind of running from it. They don't sort of know
49:36
Speaker 4: what to do. They're talking about compromise. whatever they're talking
49:39
Speaker 4: about is women don't trust them. And it's clear that
49:43
Speaker 4: this contrast is clear. They're for a national abortion ban. I've,
49:47
Speaker 4: my entire career, my entire life been supportive.
49:50
Speaker 5: Of women's rights.
49:51
Speaker 4: In the end, they don't want, you know, in the end,
49:53
Speaker 4: it shouldn't be politicians in Columbus that make these decisions.
49:57
Speaker 4: It should be women and their doctors. It's really clear.
49:59
Speaker 4: It's really easy to explain. They can dance all they want.
50:03
Speaker 4: This contrast is clear. And there's no way Americans want
50:06
Speaker 4: a national Ohioans Maybe a more conservative state than some,
50:09
Speaker 4: but Ohioans don't want a national abortion ban.
50:12
Speaker 2: Not to toss you the softball of all times, but
50:16
Speaker 2: we don't keep the Senate without winning your seat. And
50:21
Speaker 2: fair to say that if we do not do that
50:22
Speaker 2: and do well in these 2024 elections, that national abortion
50:25
Speaker 2: ban that your opponents support has a very real chance
50:28
Speaker 2: of becoming the law of this land if Republicans have
50:30
Speaker 2: control of government, right? I'm just trying to make the...
50:32
Speaker 2: For people... Our listeners who are not in Ohio, I
50:34
Speaker 2: want them to understand why your reelection is so important.
50:38
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, thank you for that. That's not the softest law.
50:40
Speaker 5: I could give you some others, but that's not bad.
50:43
Speaker 4: I mean, it really is clear that when this passed, again,
50:47
Speaker 4: by 13 points, not two or three, when it passed
50:49
Speaker 4: by 13 points, the immediate reaction of legislative leaders, these guys,
50:54
Speaker 4: almost all guys who think that they know best, the
50:57
Speaker 4: immediate reaction was, we got to find a way around this.
51:00
Speaker 4: We got to find a way to to make this
51:02
Speaker 4: not count. We've got to find something in the Constitution. Already,
51:06
Speaker 4: for the November election, the Secretary of State changed the
51:10
Speaker 4: ballot language. They're supposed to write a summary of the
51:13
Speaker 4: ballot language. His actually was longer than the ballot language submitted.
51:17
Speaker 5: So it wasn't a summary at all.
51:18
Speaker 4: So they've tried to do anything to play to their
51:21
Speaker 4: extremist far-right base, and it hasn't worked. And they're going
51:27
Speaker 4: to keep trying And I don't have a lot. I mean,
51:29
Speaker 4: I am pretty certain if they win this race and
51:33
Speaker 4: they beat Tester and they win a couple other races
51:35
Speaker 4: that they are going to continue to try for a
51:38
Speaker 4: national abortion ban. I mean, it's clear that's their goal.
51:41
Speaker 4: They want to ban it in Ohio. Every state they
51:43
Speaker 4: get an opportunity, they ban it. Really no exceptions. Maybe
51:46
Speaker 4: sometimes they'll say exception. But frankly, they want no exceptions.
51:50
Speaker 4: They want a six-week ban. They want that everywhere. And
51:53
Speaker 4: that's one of the reasons I'm going to win is
51:55
Speaker 4: that women... in my state, don't trust them. Women in
51:58
Speaker 4: my state, men in my state, too, think that this
52:02
Speaker 4: is a decision between a woman and her doctor, not
52:05
Speaker 4: a bunch of politicians in Columbus.
52:07
Speaker 2: Senator Sherrod Brown, thank you so much for joining us.
52:09
Speaker 2: Good luck out there, and I'm sure we'll talk to
52:10
Speaker 2: you again before November.
52:12
Speaker 5: Dan, thanks. Good to be with you.
52:19
Speaker 1: Thanks to Sherrod Brown for joining us today. Everyone have
52:21
Speaker 1: a great weekend, and we'll talk to you next week.
52:24
Speaker 5: Bye, everyone.
52:25
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