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Does Nvidia finally have real competition from China? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
1:06
Speaker 1: and Mike Armstraw.
1:10
Speaker 2: Kicking things off here to Chuck, Mike and Tucker with you.
1:13
Speaker 2: And this morning we had personal consumption expenditure inflation data
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Speaker 2: that came out at eight thirty am Eastern. It showed
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Speaker 2: on the headline reading point two percent month over month
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Speaker 2: and two point six percent year over year inflation. And
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Speaker 2: for the core PCE data we saw a point three
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Speaker 2: percent month over month and two point nine percent year
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Speaker 2: over year. All those numbers basically in line with expectations.
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Speaker 2: The core number towards the higher end of expectations, but
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Speaker 2: still nothing unexpected there. Despite that, you do have stocks
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Speaker 2: selling off today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average holding
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Speaker 2: up the best out of the bunch, down one hundred
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Speaker 2: and seventy four points about a third of a percent,
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Speaker 2: SP five hundred down forty seven points, three quarters of
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Speaker 2: a percent, and the Nasdaq is down two hundred and
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Speaker 2: sixty one points. Are about one and a quarter percent
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Speaker 2: right now. As this is a tech driven sell off
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Speaker 2: that's happening. Modest selloff happening in bonds as well on
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Speaker 2: the long end of the curve not too much, but
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Speaker 2: the tenure Treasury now up three basis points to four
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Speaker 2: point two three seven percent, so a little bit of
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Speaker 2: money exiting bonds. It's unclear to me, uh if this
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Speaker 2: is you know, related to this morning or just end
2:27
Speaker 2: of month rebalancing and this and that. Again, one day
2:30
Speaker 2: does not make a trend, so let's not read too
2:32
Speaker 2: much into any of this. Here we've got oil down
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Speaker 2: fifty four cents a barrel to sixty four h six
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Speaker 2: the triple A national avatur Gas prices also sliding almost
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Speaker 2: a cent to three twenty and one tenth of a cent,
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Speaker 2: as that refinery outage in the Midwest is starting to
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Speaker 2: abate and get production back up to speed, and so
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Speaker 2: price is falling there, just as an example in Michigan,
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Speaker 2: prices down two point seven cents overnight as supply is
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Speaker 2: coming back online for the region. Finally, gold up twenty
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Speaker 2: seven to fifteen ounces, back above thirty five hundred for
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Speaker 2: the first time in a little while, and so gold
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Speaker 2: making some runs towards new highs as it reacts to
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Speaker 2: the inflation data that we saw this morning as well.
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Speaker 2: Remember when we look at the all time high on gold,
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Speaker 2: we get just above this level here a couple months back.
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Speaker 2: But looking to see if we can get to all
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Speaker 2: new all time highs on gold, which I don't know.
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Speaker 2: I think it would be kind of fun. Yahoo.
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Speaker 3: Anything else to add, Mike that you're seeing at the gold.
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Speaker 2: That's all I had to add. Actually, Okay, thank you, Mike.
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Speaker 2: I appreciate that. New York Times with the piece how
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Speaker 2: the future of the FED came to rest on Lisa Cook, Mike,
3:49
Speaker 2: what's the peace?
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Speaker 3: Lay out here?
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Speaker 4: That this is all going to test out the Fed's
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Speaker 4: independence for those who haven't read much about which would
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Speaker 4: be huff if you listen to the show and read
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Speaker 4: any economic pieces. Lisa Cook, one of the voting members
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Speaker 4: of the Federal Reserve, has been fired by the President
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Speaker 4: for alleged lies on her mortgage application. Right, I guess
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Speaker 4: alleged mortgage fraud. Yeah, alleged mortgage fraud. Let's put it
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Speaker 4: that way. The fraud itself was alleged show taking place
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Speaker 4: I think in twenty twenty one or twenty twenty two.
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Speaker 4: In any case, what is testing the independence is whether
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Speaker 4: or not the President, even in a case of you know,
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Speaker 4: alleged fraud, has the right to terminate someone for cause. Now,
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Speaker 4: this is going to play its way out in the courts. Typically,
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Speaker 4: you know, most experts that I've heard of when they
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Speaker 4: talk about firing for cause in a rule like this,
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Speaker 4: it's more about gross negligence while on the job at
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Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve rather than something that occurred no really
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Speaker 4: related to the job. But all that's gonna be put
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Speaker 4: to the test. And so that's how that future kind
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Speaker 4: of came to fall on Lisa Cook's shoulders. Is okay,
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Speaker 4: Can something that I did five years in the past
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Speaker 4: or a decade in the past be used as cause
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Speaker 4: to terminate me in the role as a governor of
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Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve. It's never been tested before, and it's
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Speaker 4: about to be.
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Speaker 3: Yeah.
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Speaker 2: And so look, there's a hearing that's going on right
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Speaker 2: now as we speak with regards to Cook is looking
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Speaker 2: for eight I can't remember if it's a stay or
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Speaker 2: a temporary straining order to be put in place on
5:41
Speaker 2: the firing while this works its way through the court system,
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Speaker 2: But there's a pretty good chance, based on everything I've read,
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Speaker 2: this ends up making its way to the Supreme Court,
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Speaker 2: probably in the next two to six months, depending on
5:54
Speaker 2: the exact timeline. And so look, I think ultimately where
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Speaker 2: you know what we know and what we don't know,
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Speaker 2: there's you know, it's just kind of messy right now.
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Speaker 3: Uh we we we haven't.
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Speaker 2: Even seen any of the actual documents, right so, like
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Speaker 2: we we don't know what's actually on them. Uh So
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Speaker 2: she may or may not have actually committed fraud to
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Speaker 2: try to lower a second mortgage rate.
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Speaker 4: That's possible.
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Speaker 2: We don't know right now, right Uh if she did,
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Speaker 2: does that rise to the level of being able to
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Speaker 2: fire her for cause from the Fed? Also don't know
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Speaker 2: very much unknown If you are one of the FED governors,
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Speaker 2: even if it doesn't rise to the level of being
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Speaker 2: able to be fired for cause, is it still something
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Speaker 2: that should preclude you from having that role?
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Speaker 4: I guess that's an interesting question, right if this had
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Speaker 4: been brought up at a Senate confirmation hearing, would it
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Speaker 4: have is that? Is it disqualified? Disqualifying? I don't you
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Speaker 4: know these are That's not the same thing, right, you know,
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Speaker 4: being disqualified by the Senate confirmation versus being terminated are
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Speaker 4: two different things. But I genuinely don't know the answer
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Speaker 4: to that question. And I you know, I wonder if
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Speaker 4: anyone's looked like, Okay, did somebody that's ever been appointed
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Speaker 4: to the FED where they ever convicted of some sort
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Speaker 4: of financial crime. I would doubt. I would doubt that
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Speaker 4: was the case, but anything's possible.
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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of questions that are in play here,
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Speaker 2: and obviously this is going to be a big issue
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Speaker 2: that people follow over the next you know, probably a
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Speaker 2: couple quarters. Again, I don't think we get a final
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Speaker 2: resolution on this, probably until early in twenty six unless
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Speaker 2: Cook decides, hey, I'm just gonna step down because this
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Speaker 2: is just too much of a distraction. But given you know,
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Speaker 2: kind of what she's doing to this point in terms
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Speaker 2: of contesting it, I don't think she just suddenly wake
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Speaker 2: up tomorrow and be like, Okay, I'm done.
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Speaker 4: Yeah. It seems to me that she wants this to
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Speaker 4: be a test case that goes to the Supreme Court.
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Speaker 2: It sure does, so we're gonna have to watch to
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Speaker 2: see how this plays out. But again, I don't think
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Speaker 2: we know anything definitively right now about exactly you know,
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Speaker 2: what has gone on. There's gonna be a whole, you know,
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Speaker 2: thing that has to play out here as far as
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Speaker 2: you know, the justice system, and we'll see where we
8:15
Speaker 2: are at the back end of that. I think that's
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Speaker 2: basically where I land right now, I feel like additional
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Speaker 2: piece here. I feel like some context about the Fed's independence.
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Speaker 4: Here is a little bit helpful. I don't want to
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Speaker 4: go too deep into it. But the Supreme Court itself,
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Speaker 4: in a very recent ruling, and I don't remember who
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Speaker 4: was in regard to is another firing of an agency head,
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Speaker 4: basically confirmed the president's power to remove that individual, while
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Speaker 4: also specifically mentioning the Federal Reserve as one agency where
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Speaker 4: they didn't have such powers.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so this was I pulled it just because I
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Speaker 2: wanted to find where it was. And so this is
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Speaker 2: it was related to President Trump trying to remove gwyn
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Speaker 2: Wilcox from the NLRB and Kathy Harris from the MSPB YEP,
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Speaker 2: and pretty much they argued that their firings were against
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Speaker 2: federal law because they can only be removed for cause.
9:13
Speaker 2: And the Supreme Court said, no, like you basically you're
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Speaker 2: not you know, this is not the case for you.
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Speaker 2: But and this is the big butt that you know
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Speaker 2: that basically is is the whole crux of why.
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Speaker 4: We're here right now.
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Speaker 2: But they pretty much said, look, this is not related
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Speaker 2: to the FED. In this ruling, specifically, the quote here
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Speaker 2: the fit is a quote uniquely structured quasi private entity
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Speaker 2: that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First
9:45
Speaker 2: and Second Banks of the United States. So the Supreme
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Speaker 2: Court literally, and I say that, you know, with its
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Speaker 2: actual meeting, not the one that's used on the Bachelor
9:57
Speaker 2: or the Bachelorette. The Supreme Court literally said, yes, the
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Speaker 2: President can fire members of these other independent boards, but
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Speaker 2: you cannot touch the FED.
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Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 4: And there was not some other Supreme Court, it was this.
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Speaker 4: It was these nine members saying that. So again, I
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Speaker 4: have no clue where this goes.
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Speaker 2: Markets are betting that it doesn't go anywhere, is my
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Speaker 2: read on this, because otherwise you would have had more
10:23
Speaker 2: movement in markets this week. And this was just a
10:26
Speaker 2: really boring week until today, quite honestly. And today's not
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Speaker 2: even over, so we might even end up closing flat
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Speaker 2: by the time it's all said and done.
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Speaker 4: Today could be take a quick break here.
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Speaker 2: When we return, it's do a little bit of trivia
10:38
Speaker 2: and then we're gonna talk Ali Baba and Ai. Sure
10:42
Speaker 2: that sounds great, we'll do that right after this.
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13:05
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal exclusive Ali Baba creates AI chip to
13:09
Speaker 2: help China fill in video void and basically the run
13:15
Speaker 2: through of this and look, this is definitely one of
13:18
Speaker 2: those where you have to ask the question, like why
13:21
Speaker 2: am I reading this?
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Speaker 1: Now? Sure?
13:24
Speaker 2: The read through on this is that Alibab and other
13:28
Speaker 2: Chinese electronics companies. Ali Bob is not even a Chinese
13:31
Speaker 2: electronics company really.
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Speaker 6: You know.
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Speaker 2: I mean they have like a cloud computing business, but
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Speaker 2: I don't think they've really done a ton in chip
13:37
Speaker 2: design before this.
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Speaker 4: Nope.
13:40
Speaker 2: Basically, these companies are trying to come up with, you know,
13:42
Speaker 2: alternatives to in video chips. And I'm just gonna read
13:45
Speaker 2: one sentence that I think is really interesting to me
13:49
Speaker 2: in here, and this is the one in July, Shanghai
13:55
Speaker 2: based Meta x so not US Meta, but this is
13:58
Speaker 2: Meta x I know. Confusing rolled out a new chip
14:02
Speaker 2: that it said could serve as a replacement for the
14:05
Speaker 2: H twenty, which is in videos chip that they that
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Speaker 2: they currently have the licenses to sell in China. The
14:11
Speaker 2: chip has bigger memory than the AGE twenty, boosting its
14:15
Speaker 2: power for AI tasks, although it consumes more electricity. Metax
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Speaker 2: said Wednesday that they're preparing for mass production.
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Speaker 4: Of the chip.
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Speaker 2: Mike, what word in that paragraph do I think is
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Speaker 2: the most important?
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Speaker 4: Electricity? Yeah?
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Speaker 2: You want to know why you want to the bottleneck
14:34
Speaker 2: that China doesn't have power. You can build power plants
14:38
Speaker 2: in China all day. If I went to the Chinese
14:41
Speaker 2: government right now and said, hey, I've got a plan.
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Speaker 2: Here's how I'm gonna do it. Love the work you
14:47
Speaker 2: guys have done. What can you do for me?
14:49
Speaker 4: They would damn a river for you tomorrow.
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Speaker 3: Not they would put.
14:52
Speaker 2: A nuclear power plant on my head and say, go
14:55
Speaker 2: and do what you want to do.
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Speaker 3: You know, no problem, have at it.
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Speaker 4: You got it. Yeah, far fewer electricity constraints in the
15:03
Speaker 4: United States has That's true.
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Speaker 2: So here's where I'm going with this. China's chips might
15:09
Speaker 2: not Again, I have no idea. I'm not an electrical engineer.
15:13
Speaker 2: I have no idea like the details of any of this.
15:16
Speaker 2: But let's assume for the moment that this article is
15:19
Speaker 2: correct and that China's chips are not as strong as
15:23
Speaker 2: in videos are at AI tasks. China could be making
15:28
Speaker 2: the bet. You know what, You're right. From a quality perspective,
15:32
Speaker 2: we can't compete, But you know where we can compete.
15:36
Speaker 2: It's the same place we compete everywhere else, quantity. We're
15:40
Speaker 2: gonna just make a boatload of these. We got plenty
15:43
Speaker 2: of power plants that we can build in order to
15:45
Speaker 2: power them, even if they're less efficient. And you better
15:47
Speaker 2: believe that we're gonna make it up with building five
15:51
Speaker 2: billion of these things instead of you know, the two
15:53
Speaker 2: billion and video chips that we want to buy or
15:55
Speaker 2: whatever it is.
15:57
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's easy to buy. It's easy to believe that
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Speaker 4: that could be the route that they might end up taking.
16:03
Speaker 4: And the question that you and I can't possibly answer
16:07
Speaker 4: is to what degree do you need to produce these
16:12
Speaker 4: things to compete with something as efficient as in videos
16:15
Speaker 4: blackwell or the next generationship that they produce. I have
16:18
Speaker 4: no idea on that front. It's unanswerable. It probably doesn't
16:21
Speaker 4: matter though.
16:22
Speaker 2: I Mean, if there's one thing that China is known for,
16:24
Speaker 2: if there's one thing I think China should be known for,
16:27
Speaker 2: it is consistent over production of goods relative to the
16:31
Speaker 2: market demand for them. So if there's one thing that
16:34
Speaker 2: they're going to be really good at, it's producing way
16:37
Speaker 2: too many of these things. They might not be great,
16:42
Speaker 2: but hey, just throw a bunch of them at the
16:44
Speaker 2: problem and see what happens. And oh, by the way,
16:47
Speaker 2: the other piece that is interesting to me then is, Mike,
16:52
Speaker 2: what's the what's the problem that we see worldwide when
16:54
Speaker 2: it comes to Chinese overproduction of goods?
16:58
Speaker 4: It crashes every other domestic p of them.
17:00
Speaker 2: Yes, dumping, Yeah, it's okay, Like great, you know, now
17:04
Speaker 2: we're gonna export this overproduction everywhere else.
17:07
Speaker 4: Problem for Nvidia if that occurs, right.
17:10
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just I'm just thinking through this and saying, look,
17:15
Speaker 2: there's really good reasons why europe might say, hey, we're
17:18
Speaker 2: not going to buy these Chinese chips. Remember the whole
17:20
Speaker 2: thing with Huawei and five G networks a few years back.
17:24
Speaker 2: But think about some of those marginal buyers that the
17:27
Speaker 2: Trump administration was trying to secure earlier this year. Think
17:30
Speaker 2: about Saudi Arabia, think about the UAE, think about you know,
17:33
Speaker 2: other Gulf states and things like that. Hey, if China
17:37
Speaker 2: comes to them and says, hey, number one, like, we're
17:39
Speaker 2: bigger buyers of your oil now because the US is
17:42
Speaker 2: producing so much. Hey, if you want us to keep
17:44
Speaker 2: buying your oil in these quantities, how about you buy
17:47
Speaker 2: our chips instead of the American ones. I don't know, like,
17:50
Speaker 2: I don't know that those conversations are happening yet, but you.
17:54
Speaker 4: Can be sure that this is most certainly the conversation
17:58
Speaker 4: that the CEO of Nvidio Jensen Wig, is bringing to
18:01
Speaker 4: the president and bringing to his advisors of if you
18:05
Speaker 4: don't let us sell, then this is what you get instead. Correct,
18:09
Speaker 4: And it's a compelling argument. I don't I'm not sure.
18:13
Speaker 4: I'm not sure I get there, Like, yeah, it's compelling
18:16
Speaker 4: argument for why I would sink in Video's business. I
18:17
Speaker 4: don't think it gets to the point where, yeah, we
18:19
Speaker 4: should just sell the Chinese are blackwell, you know, latest
18:22
Speaker 4: and greatest chips. But it is a compelling argument as
18:26
Speaker 4: to why it could be a threat to.
18:27
Speaker 2: Their business even there, like when we say threat to
18:30
Speaker 2: their business, not like in Video goes out of business
18:32
Speaker 2: because of this. Sure, it's they just lose that marginal
18:35
Speaker 2: buyer that isn't Max seven right now potentially.
18:38
Speaker 3: So I think this is interesting, and I got to admit,
18:42
Speaker 3: like my spidy.
18:43
Speaker 4: Sense is kind of tingling on this right now. Well,
18:46
Speaker 4: because it's not just a report out of China that
18:49
Speaker 4: they can make these chips. What's happening concurrently with it
18:52
Speaker 4: is in Vidia can't sell their chips to China, right
18:54
Speaker 4: we're getting confirmation.
18:55
Speaker 3: Well India in Video can, but China will buy them.
18:58
Speaker 4: That's my point is that they're they're not selling and
19:01
Speaker 4: so if this were just a you know, solo report
19:04
Speaker 4: out of China. I'd say, okay, well, maybe maybe not,
19:06
Speaker 4: but the fact that Nvidia is not having a luck
19:09
Speaker 4: selling their H twenty chips to Chinese buyers indicates that
19:12
Speaker 4: maybe there is something here in terms of a competitive
19:15
Speaker 4: product from a domestic maker of the semiconductors. Yeah, so
19:19
Speaker 4: this is interesting to me.
19:21
Speaker 2: Again, I feel like there's some something going on here
19:26
Speaker 2: that has my antenna up. Quick break here, we've got
19:28
Speaker 2: the trivia answer. We've got Wall Street Watch when we return.
19:33
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Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete
19:53
Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
19:56
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network on the final trading.
20:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, August markets are in.
20:01
Speaker 5: Negative territory, seeing a pretty modest sell off here as
20:05
Speaker 5: Wall Street reacts to the core PC index, the Fed's
20:09
Speaker 5: preferred measure of inflation, with no surprises coming in line
20:13
Speaker 5: with expectations. Right now, the Dow is down by four
20:16
Speaker 5: tenths of one percent, or one hundred and eighty six points.
20:19
Speaker 5: SMP five hundred now down seven tenths of one percent
20:22
Speaker 5: or forty six points, Nasdaq down over one percent lower
20:26
Speaker 5: two hundred and forty three points lower. Russell two thousand
20:29
Speaker 5: is down by six tenths of one percent. Ten year
20:32
Speaker 5: Treasure reeled up three basis points at four point two
20:34
Speaker 5: three eight percent in crude oil down about one percent,
20:38
Speaker 5: trading right around sixty four dollars a barrel. According to
20:42
Speaker 5: the Wall Street Journal, Ali Baba has created a new
20:44
Speaker 5: verse Little chip to fill the void left by Nvidia's
20:47
Speaker 5: restricted access to the Chinese market. Ali Baba shares a
20:50
Speaker 5: jumping eleven percent on that news. Meanwhile, Dell Technology hiked
20:54
Speaker 5: it's annual outlook driven by strong AI demand. However, the
20:58
Speaker 5: tech company offered saw for guidance for the current quarter,
21:02
Speaker 5: sending shares down by ten percent. Sticking with tech, where
21:05
Speaker 5: Marvel Technologies is down by fifteen percent after AI chip
21:09
Speaker 5: maker's data center revenue fell short of estimates. The company
21:13
Speaker 5: also reported lackluster guidance for the current quarter. Elsewhere by
21:18
Speaker 5: now pay Later company, A firm is seeing its stock
21:21
Speaker 5: leap fifteen excuse me, twelve percent after it swung to
21:25
Speaker 5: profit in the previous quarter, surpassing expectations, and Caterpillar revealed
21:29
Speaker 5: it now expects the net impact from tariffs to be
21:32
Speaker 5: as much as one point eight billion dollars this year,
21:36
Speaker 5: sending shares in the construction equipment maker down by four percent.
21:41
Speaker 5: I'm Tucker Silvan Nai is Wall Street Watch and in
21:43
Speaker 5: the previous segment we asked you the question which famous
21:47
Speaker 5: game show host was a naval fighter pilot in World
21:50
Speaker 5: War Two? That would be Bob Barker. And our winner
21:53
Speaker 5: today is Bob from Sebago Lake, Maine taking home a
21:57
Speaker 5: financial Shane showed t shirt. Congrats to Bob, and we
22:00
Speaker 5: play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange See
22:03
Speaker 5: complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:07
Speaker 2: We join now by Todd Lutsky from the law firm
22:10
Speaker 2: of Cushing and Dolan. Mister Lutsky, how are you today?
22:14
Speaker 7: I am never better in you doing well?
22:16
Speaker 4: Todd.
22:16
Speaker 2: There are a bunch of different types of trust out there.
22:18
Speaker 2: How does someone actually pick the right one for their
22:21
Speaker 2: specific situation?
22:23
Speaker 6: So that really the only way you can do it
22:26
Speaker 6: is become educated about the different kinds of trusts are
22:28
Speaker 6: out there, and the way to do that is perhaps
22:30
Speaker 6: sit with an estate planning attorney. If you don't, obviously
22:33
Speaker 6: there's a guide We're giving away that's going to be
22:35
Speaker 6: helpful in that. But I'll get to that in a minute.
22:36
Speaker 6: But you know, you can only read so much about
22:40
Speaker 6: this stuff. Sometimes you just need you need you know
22:42
Speaker 6: that in person, you know, English version, lay person version
22:47
Speaker 6: of the explanation of how they work. But I can
22:50
Speaker 6: tell you a couple of things that's driven probably primarily
22:53
Speaker 6: by the size of your estate, that that will help
22:56
Speaker 6: so certainly much larger estates are probably more in the
22:59
Speaker 6: revote world at least to begin with, and then if
23:02
Speaker 6: they need gifting, they would get into the gifting irrevocable trusts.
23:07
Speaker 6: I would say smaller estates are probably going to be
23:09
Speaker 6: able to stay just what the revocable trust world. And
23:13
Speaker 6: then of course age is another factor. I think you
23:16
Speaker 6: figure the older you are and the size of the
23:20
Speaker 6: estate might dictate, you know, a little smaller estate, but
23:23
Speaker 6: over sixty five. Now I'm thinking about nursing homes and
23:26
Speaker 6: protecting it from the nursing home and now I need
23:29
Speaker 6: you know, some kind of an irrevocable nursing home trust.
23:32
Speaker 6: And maybe lastly, when you're adding the value of your estate,
23:35
Speaker 6: don't forget about life insurance because that is a tricky
23:38
Speaker 6: asset that can throw your estate into a much higher
23:42
Speaker 6: value than you think about because it doesn't pay out
23:45
Speaker 6: till you die, so you tend to not count it,
23:47
Speaker 6: and that might need to go into an irrevocable life
23:50
Speaker 6: insurance trust. So many kinds out there.
23:53
Speaker 2: Todd When does someone need to review the planning they've
23:55
Speaker 2: already done to make sure that the tools they selected
23:58
Speaker 2: before are still the right one for them today.
24:01
Speaker 6: So excellent question. So one, of course we think about age.
24:05
Speaker 6: Maybe I did my planning fifteen years ago, twenty years ago,
24:08
Speaker 6: and I was, you know, in my early fifties. Well
24:11
Speaker 6: now I'm seventy. Well that not only has age changed
24:16
Speaker 6: because the time has gone by, so that might make
24:18
Speaker 6: me want to shift from a revocable trust to an
24:21
Speaker 6: irrevocable trust, but also assets, right, maybe the assets have
24:25
Speaker 6: changed and maybe have grown significantly, which might need you
24:29
Speaker 6: to look at the documents you have and see if
24:31
Speaker 6: they if they still work. So and of course tax
24:34
Speaker 6: laws change. So I think it's all of those things.
24:36
Speaker 6: Plus I think just time in general, you should always
24:39
Speaker 6: just review. I'm thinking once every ten years at a minimum,
24:43
Speaker 6: depending on the size of your estate. If you're much larger, estates.
24:46
Speaker 6: You probably want to think about it. At least you
24:48
Speaker 6: know large estates. I don't have problem calling every December.
24:52
Speaker 6: You know it's year end. What's happening and what should
24:54
Speaker 6: we be thinking about? So, folks, estate planning requires some thought.
24:59
Speaker 6: It's a living, breathing idea and the plan the guide
25:03
Speaker 6: we're given away this month and it's the end of
25:05
Speaker 6: the month. It's the top seven estate planning trusts. So this,
25:09
Speaker 6: if nothing else, will help educate you as to what
25:12
Speaker 6: type of document might be right for you, what type
25:16
Speaker 6: of trust might be right for you. They explain how
25:19
Speaker 6: they work, from revocable to irrevocable, to special needs trust
25:23
Speaker 6: to Nominee Realty Trust. There's something in there for everyone.
25:27
Speaker 6: Help get yourself started with a state planning or review,
25:31
Speaker 6: as Chuck said, and figure out what plan might be
25:34
Speaker 6: right for you. Now The guide Top seven estate Planning
25:37
Speaker 6: Trusts eight sixty six eight four eight five six nine
25:41
Speaker 6: nine or Legal Exchange Show dot com. One last Time
25:45
Speaker 6: eight sixty six eight four eight five six nine nine
25:49
Speaker 6: or Legal Exchange Show dot com.
25:52
Speaker 3: Todd, thanks for joining us today.
25:54
Speaker 6: Always a pleasure.
25:55
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the music express are
25:57
Speaker 1: solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan in
26:00
Speaker 1: or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or investment services.
26:03
Speaker 1: Cushing and Armstrong did not endorse each other and are
26:05
Speaker 1: not affiliated.
26:06
Speaker 2: Mike, do you ever get the sense that Tucker when
26:09
Speaker 2: he's you know, kind of looking through different articles, you know,
26:14
Speaker 2: at six in the morning, it comes across Jess, comes
26:19
Speaker 2: across one and just like smiles and goes that'll show them.
26:23
Speaker 4: I do? Is it the one from market Watch?
26:26
Speaker 3: It is?
26:27
Speaker 2: It's titled why the S and P five hundred could
26:30
Speaker 2: be at risk of a ten to twenty percent pullback
26:32
Speaker 2: if Ether falls behind Bitcoin? Again, Like, what the heck
26:36
Speaker 2: are we talking about here?
26:38
Speaker 4: Even I, which is like, what the hell is this crap?
26:43
Speaker 4: I don't know. I'm also worried about the ratio of
26:47
Speaker 4: unicorns to shroot bucks right now and how that might
26:51
Speaker 4: impact markets.
26:52
Speaker 2: Well, I've been told that when mercury is in retrograde,
26:55
Speaker 2: and at the same time, if it's rainy, you need
27:00
Speaker 2: to go and buy paper.
27:02
Speaker 4: So I, in spite of the title of the article,
27:05
Speaker 4: I decided to go through and read it. And do
27:08
Speaker 4: you regret that decision? I do. I was thoroughly disappointed.
27:11
Speaker 4: It basically claimed some trends since twenty eighteen, which is
27:17
Speaker 4: really useful. Oh we got seven whole years of data
27:19
Speaker 4: wisful back data, then called out a few exceptions where
27:23
Speaker 4: these rules did not apply, and then went on to
27:25
Speaker 4: explain zero logical reason why this happened in the past
27:30
Speaker 4: or would hold true in the future. So huh with you?
27:34
Speaker 4: If you don't put it on your your list for Festivus,
27:38
Speaker 4: then I'll make sure I do check.
27:42
Speaker 2: Are we are we getting to the point where the
27:46
Speaker 2: Internet's just bad? Because here's the thing, Michael, No, I'm
27:52
Speaker 2: I'm kind of like having this epiphany. I had this,
27:56
Speaker 2: Like I was talking to someone about this yesterday in
27:59
Speaker 2: another respect. But the only reason that this is published
28:05
Speaker 2: is because it's so cheap to do so. Like if
28:08
Speaker 2: if you had to go out and actually print this
28:12
Speaker 2: on paper and pay for those costs and go through
28:16
Speaker 2: the work of distributing it, you would just give up
28:19
Speaker 2: and be like no.
28:19
Speaker 4: Sorry, Like I'm not gonna do it. It's not worth it.
28:23
Speaker 4: But click.
28:24
Speaker 2: You know, people always say like you're entitled to your opinion,
28:27
Speaker 2: and it's true you are, but you aren't entitled to
28:29
Speaker 2: like have people agree with your opinion, and the problem
28:34
Speaker 2: is that the Internet has made it so that we
28:36
Speaker 2: all think that everyone should agree with our opinion, when
28:39
Speaker 2: more often than not, most people you're myself included, tend
28:43
Speaker 2: to be wrong a decent amount of the time.
28:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so.
28:48
Speaker 2: I just don't think that the Internet is good because
28:53
Speaker 2: of this blank statement. You now like it's it's totally
28:59
Speaker 2: fun kind to have your opinions. You don't always need
29:02
Speaker 2: to share them.
29:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you know, some of them we can just.
29:05
Speaker 2: Keep to ourselves and it's just fine, you know. But
29:08
Speaker 2: that's just uh, that's just me. So yeah, this is
29:12
Speaker 2: one of those.
29:14
Speaker 3: Again.
29:15
Speaker 4: If if you read this and.
29:16
Speaker 3: Made an investment decision based on it, good riddance.
29:18
Speaker 4: I'm sorry.
29:20
Speaker 2: I just don't know how it's gonna work out for you.
29:22
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're
29:25
Speaker 2: gonna be joined by Paul Lamonica from Barons right after this.
29:32
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29:39
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29:42
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30:05
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30:09
Speaker 7: Ladies and gentlemen the weekend.
30:17
Speaker 2: As promised, We're now joined by the one and only
30:20
Speaker 2: Paul o'monica from Barons and we're talking about Salesforce today.
30:26
Speaker 4: Paul, how you doing?
30:28
Speaker 7: I'm good? Thanks?
30:28
Speaker 4: Are you guys doing doing well?
30:30
Speaker 2: Salesforce stock has had a challenging year a year today,
30:34
Speaker 2: down almost twenty five percent even you take a look at,
30:39
Speaker 2: you know, kind of its track records since being moved
30:41
Speaker 2: into the Dow, and it's done worse than the company
30:44
Speaker 2: it replaced, Exonmobile. So what do we make of Salesforce
30:50
Speaker 2: and where they stand and their prospects for the future.
30:54
Speaker 8: Yeah, Salesforce is going to be reporting earnings next week.
30:59
Speaker 8: Growth made be a little sluggish, looking at you know,
31:03
Speaker 8: below ten percent year over year increase on sales and earnings,
31:09
Speaker 8: which is obviously not spectacular. But I think when you
31:13
Speaker 8: look at this stock and how it's been beaten up
31:15
Speaker 8: so much. It's now trading at evaluation pe in the
31:20
Speaker 8: low twenties, so it's around the market multiple.
31:24
Speaker 7: Usually trades at a big premium.
31:26
Speaker 8: It's probably not going to get back to those levels
31:28
Speaker 8: anytime soon, as long as growth doesn't pick up. But
31:32
Speaker 8: it's arguably just way over sold and undervalued at this point,
31:36
Speaker 8: given that it's about a you know, ten.
31:39
Speaker 7: Year low on its valuation.
31:41
Speaker 8: And I think the big issue is that there are
31:44
Speaker 8: a lot of concerns about what AI is going to
31:48
Speaker 8: do to enterprise software offerings. Does it make it a
31:52
Speaker 8: little bit less of a compelling value for big corporations
31:58
Speaker 8: to be spending so much money on the multi year contracts.
32:01
Speaker 8: But I think that investors aren't giving the company enough
32:04
Speaker 8: credit for its own agentic AI software offerings. That you know,
32:09
Speaker 8: if you turn on the TV, anyone that still does
32:12
Speaker 8: that in twenty twenty five, you can't miss all those
32:15
Speaker 8: Matthew McConaughey, Woody House and Salesforce commercials, and as absurd
32:19
Speaker 8: as they might be, you know that they are spending
32:21
Speaker 8: a lot of money to promote their AI offerings, you know,
32:25
Speaker 8: and you got to think that's going to gain some traction.
32:27
Speaker 2: So this is what I was going to ask, how
32:29
Speaker 2: can all of these companies that currently don't have inroads
32:34
Speaker 2: with you know, enterprises in these areas that are developing AI,
32:38
Speaker 2: how are they getting all of the credit for future
32:40
Speaker 2: revenue that hasn't yet happened when Salesforce is getting no
32:44
Speaker 2: credit for the same thing.
32:46
Speaker 7: Yeah.
32:47
Speaker 8: No, it's a great question, and I think that there
32:51
Speaker 8: is clearly a lot of excitement, and you're seeing that
32:56
Speaker 8: with Microsoft and Alphabet, you know, having stronger years than Salesforce.
33:02
Speaker 8: I think there is this recognition, you know, it's not
33:05
Speaker 8: just the chat gbts of the world and the startups.
33:08
Speaker 8: I think that there is this notion that Gemini on
33:12
Speaker 8: Alphabet and Copilot with Microsoft, that they have a bit
33:16
Speaker 8: of a head start over companies like Salesforce.
33:19
Speaker 7: But you know, Salesforce is a.
33:21
Speaker 8: Company that is entrenched in so many big businesses, not
33:26
Speaker 8: just with their core CRM platform, but also with Slack,
33:30
Speaker 8: with some of the other acquisitions that they've been making
33:34
Speaker 8: over the past couple of years. So I think investors
33:37
Speaker 8: are probably underestimating the ability of Mark Benioff to come
33:41
Speaker 8: up with a legitimate AI strategy that will eventually yield
33:47
Speaker 8: you know, more revenue and profit growth. And as I
33:49
Speaker 8: point out at the end of the piece, there are
33:51
Speaker 8: some activists involved.
33:53
Speaker 7: In this stock as well.
33:56
Speaker 8: So worst case scenario figure that there's more pressure to
34:02
Speaker 8: try and push Salesforce to make changes, and they actually
34:05
Speaker 8: did that a couple of years ago, and it's one
34:06
Speaker 8: of the reasons why, after you know, lagging for a bit,
34:10
Speaker 8: you know, the stock you know, doubled in twenty twenty three.
34:13
Speaker 2: I believe, Yeah, isn't one of the other pieces with Salesforce, Like,
34:18
Speaker 2: they're not the same company they were in the twenty
34:20
Speaker 2: tens where you know, they were consistently you know, struggling
34:23
Speaker 2: with free cash flow, their margins were bad and it
34:27
Speaker 2: was just grow at all costs. They're a really profitable
34:29
Speaker 2: company right now, that is, you know, making a boatload
34:33
Speaker 2: of profit and to this point that hasn't really changed.
34:37
Speaker 8: No, I mean, it's a it is clearly a more
34:40
Speaker 8: mature company now. They have done numerous acquisitions. As you
34:44
Speaker 8: pointed out, I mean, they're one of the worst stocks
34:46
Speaker 8: in the Dow.
34:48
Speaker 7: Let's let that sink in. Salesforce is in the Dow.
34:50
Speaker 8: This is not by any means a company that is
34:55
Speaker 8: an underdog anymore. I think there was that period of
34:59
Speaker 8: time where you f help that they were struggling to
35:02
Speaker 8: compete with Microsoft and Oracle and SAP.
35:05
Speaker 7: I think the issue is probably the narrative has changed
35:08
Speaker 7: a little.
35:08
Speaker 8: Bit, so it's not so much that they're you know,
35:11
Speaker 8: lagging behind legacy software companies.
35:13
Speaker 7: It's that, you know, there are just concerns about.
35:17
Speaker 8: You know, what the future of software looks like in
35:21
Speaker 8: an AI world, so you know that might be you know,
35:24
Speaker 8: more of you know, a fundamental challenge for them going forward.
35:28
Speaker 2: Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today. I hope
35:31
Speaker 2: you have a great Labor Day weekend and we'll catch
35:34
Speaker 2: up with you in September.
35:35
Speaker 7: Yep, thanks a lot, send you guys have a good
35:37
Speaker 7: long weekend.
35:38
Speaker 2: That is Paul Monica from Baron's talking about Salesforce. Mike,
35:43
Speaker 2: do you mind if I go into this Financial Times
35:46
Speaker 2: piece on Meta's AIU vision just because gosh, some of
35:50
Speaker 2: the quotes that came out of this are just really
35:54
Speaker 2: really good in terms of it basically talks about, hey,
35:57
Speaker 2: Mett has been hiring a bunch of these AI scientists
36:00
Speaker 2: and they're not getting along and they're just leaving.
36:04
Speaker 4: Is basically they are all the smartest person in the room. Yes,
36:07
Speaker 4: this is very brictable, so like things that have happened here.
36:11
Speaker 2: Acdding to the tumult, a handful of new Ai staff
36:14
Speaker 2: have already decided to leave after brief tenures, according to
36:16
Speaker 2: people familiar with the matter. This includes Ethan Knight, a
36:19
Speaker 2: machine learning scientists who joined the company weeks ago. Another,
36:22
Speaker 2: Avi Verma, a former Open Ai researcher, went through Metas
36:26
Speaker 2: onboarding process.
36:26
Speaker 4: But never showed up for his first day.
36:29
Speaker 2: You got a nine figure deal for Meta and you're
36:31
Speaker 2: not showing up for your first day. Man, things must
36:33
Speaker 2: not be great like other things that we have here.
36:36
Speaker 2: This is just a really kind of wild one. In
36:39
Speaker 2: a tweet on x on Wednesday, reshab Argowal, a research
36:43
Speaker 2: scientist who started at Meta in April, announced his departure.
36:47
Speaker 2: He said that while Zuckerberg and Wang's pitch was incredibly compelling,
36:50
Speaker 2: he quote felt the pull to take on a different
36:53
Speaker 2: kind of risk without giving more detail, is he going
36:57
Speaker 2: dirt biking with evil and evil?
36:59
Speaker 4: I have no idea whether this is a Meta thing
37:02
Speaker 4: or a just asininely overconfident employee thing. But in either case,
37:09
Speaker 4: it's kind of humorous. I think the other thing I
37:12
Speaker 4: can do is laugh about it.
37:13
Speaker 2: I think it's a meta thing because here's how their
37:14
Speaker 2: own like corporate pr responded to questions on this. We
37:18
Speaker 2: appreciate that there's outsized interest in seemingly every minute detail
37:22
Speaker 2: of our AI efforts, no matter how inconsequential or mundane.
37:25
Speaker 2: But we're just focused on doing the work to deliver
37:27
Speaker 2: personal superintelligence.
37:31
Speaker 4: Okay, ye, like okay, And.
37:34
Speaker 2: Then Meta also said they were talking about how Zuckerberg
37:37
Speaker 2: is too like, you know, micromanaging this division. Also Meta
37:42
Speaker 2: said this allegation was quote manufactured tension without basis in fact,
37:46
Speaker 2: that's clearly being pushed by dramatic navel gazing busy boddies.
37:51
Speaker 2: I gotta tell you, you better hope that you better
37:56
Speaker 2: hope that this stuff pays off for you. Otherwise you're
37:58
Speaker 2: gonna look like just the most we're confident, like a
38:01
Speaker 2: bunch of not nice people. What else is in a while,
38:07
Speaker 2: he's returning to his roots. He's returning to his roots.
38:11
Speaker 2: All is saved. Let's take a quick break for the
38:14
Speaker 2: entire long weekend. I hope you all listening have a
38:17
Speaker 2: great Labor Day weekend, and when we see you next time,
38:21
Speaker 2: it'll be September.
38:22
Speaker 4: We'll see you then