Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Big Banks Warn of Massive Rally + Stock Market News 07 May 2024

Transcript

Big Banks Warn of Massive Rally + Stock Market News 07 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I'm going to explain to you why I think this is a glorious, glorious moment in investing history and how we can make money out of that.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I'm sure Palantir will be at the top of some of your thoughts and prayers today.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at that and I think I'll probably trade that today.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I think there is an opportunity there.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We called it yesterday, didn't we?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: How did we call it?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Options Watch?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Very simple.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Options Watch on ION Very simple, gives you the data you need.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I'll actually email you guys Options Watch on IOS To explain exactly how we call that, because it's database From shooting from the hip type thing.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: But yeah, if you want to get yourself signed up to that I don't know, there's a link to it somewhere.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Options Watch on IOS Check it.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: You can get yourself signed up to that.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, there's a link to it somewhere.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Options Watch it.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Check it out.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It's tremendous.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: You've got better data than most people, right?
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: You make smarter decisions.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Echo Okay, how about that?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: That's better, isn't it?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we have two mics open.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, thank you very much.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Two Felixes, that's how, isn't it?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we have two mics open.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, thank you very much.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Two Felixes.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: That's how important it is.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Today.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: We've run everything twice.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Pre-market looking absolutely you.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Youtube lags the stream ever so slightly.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much for letting me know, and that's one way to get the interaction going in the chat, isn't it?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Smash the like buttons, my friends, and the algorithm shall reward us handsomely, with more people that we can help to get to financial freedom.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And, on that note, in 11 hours I'll teach you how we did this.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: The last two years 20, 126% in 2022, 105% in 2023, return on capital employed.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Come and join me at felixfrenzorg slash webinar and I will show you.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I will show you no sound, no, no, the sound's there.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: There is sound, right, I mean, I can see the sound.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: There must be sound.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Some of you, I think, are just tuning in late and writing echo.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Have we got good sound?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I think so, otherwise Uriel would be writing something else.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Come and join me seriously.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: In 11 hours I'll teach you my three steps.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Sounds fine, matthew?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: There is a calm, cool, collected head on some shoulders there.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Ok, why is the market looking so rosy and fantastic?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I appreciate everybody confirming the sound today and smashing the like button, because the sound is no longer off or echoey.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Instead, we just have the Fed going.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: And look at this, look at this.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: This is the kind of language that we live for.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: And look at this, look at this.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: This is the kind of language that we live for.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: He says that I'm optimistic that today's restrictive levels can take the edge off demand in order to bring inflation back to our target.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Who's he?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: He is the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, president Thomas Barkin, and the only place he sees inflation is housing and services, and actually that's quite a good thing, because housing, if you think about that, if your rent goes up and it's mostly rent what do you do?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: You spend less in the real economy and therefore higher rent is kind of deflationary.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Do you see where I'm coming from here?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So good news.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And the market's liking it.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So good news.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: And the market's liking it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: More good news the algo funds, the damn ass computers.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I'm working on something like this, by the way, a bit too early to announce, but we're working on something which is exciting.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: We are at a line here and I'll put a purple line through here which is sort of the positioning flip, and we've essentially gone below that line, which means typically, typically, we bounce back up.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Well, they buy up here and they sell down here.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So the selling seems to be done and we now seem to be on buying streak.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: And according to Goldman Sachs the bankers with a warm and fuzzy heart who spend all their life cuddling kittens and donating to good causes you know those kind of bankers they are saying next week, if the market is flat, I'll go funds by 27 billion.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, I'll go funds by 29 billion.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down, algo funds by $2 billion.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So even if the market goes down, they're still going to be buying.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, what more could you wish for?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: It's like Christmas in May Over the next month flat market, they buy Up, they buy a lot.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: You need a really, really monstrously big sell-off in the next month for them to sell.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I don't see the reason for it.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling that we're going to get supported by the dumb algo money out there.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: And here is something funny I just included this for a bit of a giggle Boeing we're going to send one really, really terrified astronaut to space.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, really, should you trust people?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: You can't get an airplane off the ground without losing a door or a wheel or something to send people to space and they've also spent almost twice as much money as SpaceX and it's taken them four years longer to not launch.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So one and a half billion in extra costs, technical problems and apparently there was another glitch so they didn't launch, but apparently the astronaut is still willing.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: He is on suicide watch at present, but someone's got to go out there, right.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: And then look at this, the landlord's got more money to spend.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: No, they're giving it to the banks, the landlords, because of interest rates.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of all works out quite quite sweetly really.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Earnings per share expectation is basically it was flat from the fourth quarter to the next quarter, first quarter of this year.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: And then after that, look at that, look at the expectation in profit growth it's all going up, up, up, up up.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: What happens to stock prices when profits go up?
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: They tend to go up.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: There's a pretty good correlation there.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Not perfect in the short term, but there tends to be that.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: So we've got a pretty juicy, rosy 2024 ahead.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: That's the way I look at it.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I just think it looks pretty good.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Weakness in job creation is what we're expecting.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: The hiring plans, and it's this gray line here.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Hiring plans these are the hiring plans.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So this is data that isn't completely manipulated by the government.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: It's actual hiring plans.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And well, you can see it's heading down right.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It's been heading down significantly over the last couple of months and they're basically saying we're going to hire less and less and less and less and therefore we'd expect that the labor market will finally give us some crappier data and therefore we will finally get the rate cuts that we so deserve for all of our patience with all the Fed flips.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Here's an idea for a trade.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying you should do it, but Novo Nordisk tends to bounce off its trend line Fat drugs, that is and it's a good company, it's a good stock.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I think they have a bit of an edge.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not putting out as much product as they'd like.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of competition.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I think they have a bit of an edge.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not putting out as much product as they'd like.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of competition and so on, but I still think their pipeline in terms of product development looks pretty extraordinary.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: That's how they do the trade, obviously.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: But there is an idea.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Here is another idea, this one the chip people are lagging NVIDIA.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: We have not.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Last time we saw a gap this big was when February, just after earnings Earnings coming up again, are they going to close the gap?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Mind, the gap Could be a trade, could be a trade worth looking at.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I might have a look at that a little bit later today.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Again, not telling you to do it, obviously it's not financial advice.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: This, on the other hand, is clearly financial advice BTFD.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I obviously can't explain what that means, but I think you can understand what buy B-T and then fucking dip means, right?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: This is a newsletter which, of course, you are subscribed to because it's like the best newsletter in the world.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: It's called Trading Floor Whispers.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: If you are not subscribed to that, seriously, there it is FelixSchwenzorg slash sub as in subscribe, subscribe.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: He says I just scared my cat.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: It's written not by me.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Actually it's written by Elliot, who is one of our head coaches.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: He's a market maker of 20 years experience.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: We were literally just chatting a minute before this on some really cool trade ideas and some other ideas, and I don't think I've ever met anybody who understands markets as deeply as Elliot.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: He puts this out.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: There's a free version, there is a paid version.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: We run real trades.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: They're usually pretty good.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: They're not financial advice, but we've made some money and it's not for the faint-hearted, that's all I'd say, because it's more in-depth than a lot of stuff out there.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: So if you are new to investing and you read this, you might want to run this through ChatGPT and say can you please explain this to me?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: And that's just a health warning that comes with this.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: But I'd see it as inspiration of be the dumbest kid in the class because you're going to get smarter.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Right, go to a gym where you are the unfittest person.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Don't go to the gym with all the fat people, because you won't be inspired.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: But if you are like the pathetic, embarrassed guy in the corner doing one pull-up, then you're going to be doing five and then 10 and then 20 soon, because that's who you are.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: If you want to surround yourself with that kind of material it comes out about two or three times a week subscribe to phoenixfenceorg.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Slash sub, not like the sandwich, but like the newsletter.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Christopher says I agree, elliot is the best coach ever.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a freaking genius.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: We were literally just having a funny conversation about some really interesting trade ideas that we are currently backtesting the heck out of and we might make that available to some of you guys in more of the advanced levels of what we're doing, but it's a little too early to talk about it.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: So, any gym without Dan Lostmikita you're a sup Great newsletter always appreciate that, thanks very much.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: And Lostmikita, because you were told never to buy an IPO.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: And I would tell you every single day never to buy an IPO.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: It's a monk's game IPO.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Danzo is invested in cocoa, but he's eating it.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Parikh, what are you thinking about, palantir?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me show you what I'm thinking about, palantir.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: We'll have to wait for the market to open and please don't copy my trades if you don't know what you're doing.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: It's just idiotic.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: But if you look at OptionsWatch, palantir, as I said, I'll send out an email a little bit later today to you guys using the software and I'll move myself into the bottom left corner so you can actually see it.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Come on, guys.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: We are, by the way, updating the data and everything else.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: The little loading lags we get from time to time are soon going to be a thing of the past, except when I try to show you something.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Obviously, what's going on here?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, here we go.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Pltr.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: There she is in all her beauty.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And what do we see?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Well, we saw we have this massive resistance at 25, right, look at the stock chart.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: What happened here yesterday?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: 25, 25, 25, 25, 25.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Every time we hit 25, we sell off.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: You see red sell-off volume here and that's basically what the software indicated to you.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Now support kicks in from sort of 23 below, but currently at 22.15.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So a lot of support kicks in at 21.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: And then for next week, not a lot of support, but the resistance is still there.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: We go out 22, 21, 22.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that sort of level 22,.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I'd say it was probably quite a good support level.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So what am I going to do?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I am probably going to do something like this and please don't copy it because it will be stupid when we position ourselves somewhere below the market and we make maybe 20% in a day or something like that, and that's a high risk trade.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: You're going to want to size that appropriately, or best not do it at all, but you could do it at $82.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: The data will change when the market opens.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be quite a bit lower than where we are right now.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I think we could probably be at $19, $20 and still make that kind of a return.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: So that's basically what I'm looking at is just be well below the market, take advantage of the massive volatility that we have right now, which might be meaningless to you, and that's completely fine.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: But if you want to understand, to actually get an edge and actually get a system in three steps that are simple and that a beginner can implement, come and join me in 11 hours live at Felix Fentz with org slash webinar, and the whole thing will start to make sense.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: Winston understands it.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: When was the Facebook IPO done?
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know 1876 or something like that.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: It's an old stock, isn't it?
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah, palantir looking pretty unpleasant 12% down here this morning.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Tesla getting a little bit bollocked, really down 1.8%.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I think China production numbers are down a little bit.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: That might have something to do with it.