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What to expect from the election campaign · Inside Politics

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  S1: Hello everyone. My name is Jacqueline Maley and welcome to
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  S1: a very fast and loose and live episode of Inside Politics.
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  S1: We finally have an election date. We're staring down the
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  S1: barrel of a five week campaign before voting day on
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  S1: May the 3rd. And here, from the newsrooms of The
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  S1: Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're going to be
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  S1: bringing you our humble podcast twice a week during the campaign.
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  S1: There's going to be a lot of news around, so
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  S1: we're here to help you navigate your way through the
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  S1: barrage of information with the most trusted voices in Australian journalism.
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  S1: And among them are national affairs editor James Massola and
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  S1: federal political reporter Natasha Chrysanthos, who joined us from the
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  S1: Canberra studio today. Hi, guys.
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  S2: Hi, Jess. Hi.
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  S1: Now I just want a quick vibe check, because it's
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  S1: been kind of a busy week. We've been waiting for
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  S1: the election to be called. The announcement obviously was delayed
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  S1: by a few weeks because of. I think it's now
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  S1: called Ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred. We had the budget lock up
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  S1: on Tuesday. We had the budget reply speech on Thursday
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  S1: night and Friday morning. This morning the election was called.
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  S1: Are you guys exhausted? Excited? How are you feeling?
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  S3: Uh, at the moment, more exhausted than excited. Um, Jackie,
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  S3: it's been a big week, but also excited. I mean,
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  S3: this is what we wait, you know, three years for
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  S3: over and over again. But at this point of the cycle,
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  S3: and I think in particular, it's exciting because we've seen
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  S3: Peter Dutton kind of slowly claim the ascendancy since before
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  S3: The Voice referendum. And only in the last month or
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  S3: so has he started to come off the boil. Have
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  S3: we started to see some leaks come out of the coalition?
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  S3: Have we seen Labour really kind of start to give
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  S3: a sense that they've got a bit of momentum, that
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  S3: they've got a clear strategy. And so I think we're
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  S3: now at this point, Jackie, where the campaign is perhaps
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  S3: going to be a little bit more consequential than we
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  S3: may have thought six months ago.
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  S1: Taz.
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  S4: Excited. Thrilled. Thrilled. I think that's a good point, James. There.
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  S4: There has been a shift in energy since a kind
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  S4: of few weeks into this year, which has lifted the
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  S4: pace a bit and I think heightened the stakes quite
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  S4: a bit as well. So that has been a welcome
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  S4: kind of invigoration.
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  S3: I think it's neck and neck for the two major parties,
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  S3: but Labour is more likely to form a minority government
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  S3: that's seen as the most likely outcome, then coalition minority,
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  S3: then coalition majority and the least likely outcome is a
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  S3: Labour majority. Now, I don't think that's right because of
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  S3: what's happened in the last four weeks, but maybe that's
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  S3: just a lag in the in the bookies odds, but
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  S3: they usually have a pretty good idea. So I think
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  S3: that gives you a sense of how kind of all
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  S3: over the place and a bit nebulous it still is.
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  S1: Yeah. The wisdom of the betting markets, everything unfolded this morning,
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  S1: Friday morning, bright and early about 7 a.m., when the
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  S1: Prime Minister took the trip from from Parliament to the
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  S1: Governor-General's joint, and then he went back to Parliament House
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  S1: and held a press conference in the prime ministerial courtyard. Natasha,
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  S1: what did he tell Australians? It was a pretty big
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  S1: address and he was sort of back to his usual
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  S1: fighting form, I thought.
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  S4: Yeah, And it was a real kind of labor speech,
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  S4: kind of from the get go. He's focusing on Labor's
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  S4: key promises around childcare, healthcare in particular. He whipped out
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  S4: his Medicare card. That's something we've seen labor ministers do
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  S4: a lot of late. Medicare is going to be a
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  S4: really key plank of their campaign. And what they're trying
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  S4: to do is stamp labor all over Medicare and make
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  S4: it a kind of partisan brand. Started, you know, quite
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  S4: strong with this positive message about building Australia's future. That's
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  S4: the labor campaign slogan for 2025 and said, quite literally,
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  S4: this is our positive plan. And then about halfway through,
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  S4: you then had the switch, which has been the feature
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  S4: of Labor's campaign. They've tried to sell this positive message about, um,
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  S4: you know, progressive reform. They're doing the job. They've laid
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  S4: the foundations. Now they're, you know, now the economy is
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  S4: turning the corner and there are more bright times ahead.
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  S4: Paired with this. You can't trust Dutton. Dutton's going to cut, cut, cut.
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  S4: Dutton's a risk message. And that's what Labor's been playing
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  S4: with in this last three months, since the beginning of
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  S4: the year. And we started this strange pre-election mode. And
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  S4: that was precisely the structure of Albanese's speech today as well.
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  S4: So he didn't really veer from the script that he's
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  S4: been practicing from the last three months at all.
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  S1: Yeah. It was interesting that he sort of brandished the
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  S1: Medicare card because, as you say, he really by doing that,
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  S1: he really makes labor own it. And of course, he
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  S1: said in that speech that, you know, that Dutton wanted
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  S1: to cut Medicare to pay for things, that he hasn't
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  S1: said how he's going to pay for James. But in
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  S1: Dutton's budget reply last night, he actually specifically said that
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  S1: he supported Medicare and that he wanted to put more
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  S1: money into the PBS. So which side do you think
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  S1: voters will believe?
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  S3: Look, I think Dutton's very aware of his vulnerabilities on health. Um,
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  S3: it's not a core equity of the Liberal Party, you know,
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  S3: to sort of say we're the defenders of Medicare. It
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  S3: hasn't been for decades. It very much is obviously for labor.
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  S3: They're the founders of Medicare. So what we've seen is,
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  S3: you know, an extra $500 million promised from the coalition,
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  S3: on top of the 8.5 billion promised from labor for Medicare.
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  S3: I think Dutton has a sort of a good rejoinder
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  S3: or a good attack line, insofar as bulk billing has
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  S3: actually gone down under labor compared to under the coalition,
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  S3: even though that's slightly skewed because of Covid. But ultimately,
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  S3: to your question, Jacqui, I think people will still trust
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  S3: labor first on Medicare. And there's a reason. I mean,
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  S3: and labor knows that it's, you know, what's that saying?
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  S3: It's deja vu all over again. Another Medicare election like 2016.
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  S3: You know, labor is not going to be deterred by Dutton,
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  S3: you know, promising a bit of extra money and saying, oh, no, no,
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  S3: I'll be really good for Medicare as well. I don't
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  S3: think they have the credits in the bank.
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  S1: Just quickly back on Albanese, James, he got a bit
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  S1: emotional in his speech when he talked about his mother, Marianne,
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  S1: and he talked about how she received excellent health care
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  S1: at RPA Hospital in Sydney, just down the road in Camperdown,
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  S1: which was the same healthcare that the billionaire Kerry Packer
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  S1: received when he had a heart attack, I think. And
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  S1: when Albanese himself had a had a car crash just
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  S1: around the corner from his home.
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  S5: I was in the same room that my mum was
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  S5: in when, as an invalid pensioner, she got taken up
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  S5: the road after having an annual.
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  S2: He gets very vulnerable.
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  S1: And sort of emotional when he talks about his mother.
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  S1: Do you think that that's something that cuts through to voters,
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  S1: even though they have heard that story before?
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  S3: Yeah, I think it absolutely does. I mean, protecting Medicare,
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  S3: cherishing Medicare, boosting Medicare, these are lines of attack for
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  S3: the ALP. But it is also a thing that the
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  S3: Labor Party really strongly believes in. And you can see that,
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  S3: I mean, as you said, Jack, the PM at the
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  S3: very least, kind of got really wobbly, had that quiver
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  S3: in his voice for a moment or three talking about
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  S3: his mum, which he always does, but it also is
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  S3: talking about or rather, it sort of speaks to the
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  S3: sort of Australia he and the Labor Labour Party that
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  S3: they want this country to be. Um, so it very
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  S3: much reaches into here for him. Um, and yeah, we
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  S3: saw that on.
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  S1: Yeah. He sort of held it up as a talisman of,
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  S1: of Australian fairness basically, and equality.
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  S4: It wasn't part of his speech either. It came in
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  S4: the questions, and I think it was the most sincere
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  S4: that I've felt him to be in making comments like
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  S4: that in quite a while, which was quite interesting.
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  S1: Yeah. Four hours later, um, Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave
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  S1: his speech to the Australian public. Um, you know, posing
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  S1: himself as leader and shaping up to Anthony Albanese for
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  S1: the election campaign. Notably, he did it in Brisbane, not
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  S1: in Canberra. Task. Why would that be?
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  S4: I think Dutton has made his kind of disdain for
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  S4: the Canberra bubble quite clear. You know, in the way
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  S4: he talks about Canberra very often. Um, he's been one to,
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  S4: you know, go to shock jock radio interviews rather than
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  S4: press conferences. Most of his press conferences aren't held in Canberra.
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  S4: He does a lot of, um, a lot around Queensland,
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  S4: a lot of regional areas and local communities. So I
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  S4: think this is very much going with the form of
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  S4: what we've seen, we've done in terms of his media strategy.
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  S4: He doesn't centre Canberra even though he's worked here as
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  S4: a politician for almost 25 years. He pitches himself as
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  S4: someone who's kind of above and beyond that. And I
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  S4: think this is what we've seen with this decision today.
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  S1: James, how did Dutton compare in his pitch to the
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  S1: public in Brisbane?
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  S3: I thought Peter Dutton's pitch both last night in the budget. Reply. Jackie.
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  S3: And also in their sort of first pitch today. This
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  S3: morning I thought it was dark. I thought it lacked detail,
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  S3: particularly on substantive policy. And I think it for me
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  S3: highlighted how much explaining they have to do. Still, on
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  S3: at least let's say, 2 or 3 key policies. I mean,
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  S3: he did not mention this morning the nuclear power policy
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  S3: at all in his preamble. You know, in his opening
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  S3: pitch to Australians, it only came up when someone asked
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  S3: him and he pivoted straight back to gas, gas, gas, gas, gas.
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  S3: We need more gas as soon as he could. I
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  S3: think that tells you that the nuclear power policy is
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  S3: now a net negative for him.
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  S6: I think it's important to point out that our plan
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  S6: has gas and a lot of gas in the system
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  S6: between now and when nuclear can come online in 2035
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  S6: to 37. The Prime Minister's plan of renewables rolls out
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  S6: over about a 15 year period.
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  S3: And look, with respect to his budget reply speech Thursday night,
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  S3: I described it in the pages of the Herald and
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  S3: The Age as a form of Australian carnage. It reminded
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  S3: me of Donald Trump's first inauguration address, where he talked
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  S3: about American carnage and all the things that are wrong. This,
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  S3: you know, with this, in that case, that country. And
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  S3: I alone can fix it. It almost felt like Dutton
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  S3: was borrowing from that playbook a bit. And I just
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  S3: for me, a fundamental question is, do Australians believe, after
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  S3: just three years of Anthony Albanese, that things are that
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  S3: bad in this country and I question whether they do.
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  S1: You mentioned energy there and the nuclear energy policy of
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  S1: the coalition, which, as you say, I think this only
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  S1: mentioned very briefly in Dutton's budget reply speech on Thursday
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  S1: night a couple of times, and on Friday morning, again,
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  S1: it was barely mentioned. The focus very much now seems
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  S1: to be on gas getting energy prices down by reserving
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  S1: Australian gas for Australian consumers. So James, are we going
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  S1: to see very much an election campaign around energy. You
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  S1: know Labor's 100% renewable policy as they call it, versus nuclear.
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  S1: But really we're talking about gas which is plentiful and
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  S1: will be cheap if we can make it cheap.
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  S3: Yeah. I think what we're going to see, Jack, is
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  S3: a lot of talk about it. I think you're right.
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  S3: But what we're actually going to see is the two
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  S3: major parties arguing about how different their policy approaches are.
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  S3: But in reality, other than nuclear, they're not actually that different.
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  S3: Like the coalition, for example, although it says it quietly
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  S3: acknowledges that the rollout of renewable energy will continue. And labor,
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  S3: for its part, says very clearly we can't get to
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  S3: net zero by 2050 with, you know, and to our
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  S3: interim targets in 2030 and 2035 without gas being part
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  S3: of the mix in the energy system in this country,
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  S3: they actually agree with each other. So we're they're going
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  S3: to emphasize each other's differences. But in fact at the
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  S3: at the heart of it, they're quite similar. The policies
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  S3: I mean.
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  S1: The climate was continue to continue. Just wrapping up, I
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  S1: want to ask both of you just how close this
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  S1: is going to be. James, you talked about the betting
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  S1: markets before, which are slightly confused and have flipped their position.
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  S1: What does that tell you and what do the polls say?
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  S3: The vast majority of the polls suggest we're headed towards
• 11:47
  S3: a minority government territory. A lot could happen in five weeks.
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  S3: But at this point in time, Jackie, my tip is
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  S3: minority government. I don't know which way it'll go. I
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  S3: think probably given we're at about 50 over 50, if
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  S3: you take the sort of aggregate of polls that probably
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  S3: favors the incumbent, that probably puts labor a little bit ahead.
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  S3: It doesn't mean they're necessarily getting majority government, though. We'll
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  S3: find out in the next five weeks.
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  S1: Does. Us.
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  S4: I think I was kind of creating a timeline of
• 12:16
  S4: this last term of Parliament for our audience. And what
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  S4: was very clear was the first 18 months of this term,
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  S4: from May 2022 till November 2023, was really labours. There
• 12:29
  S4: was kind of really unusually high approval ratings for Albanese.
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  S4: They were pushing legislation through. They had climate targets, safeguard mechanisms.
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  S4: You know, they pushed their IR changes through and the
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  S4: polls just flipped from that point in October and November,
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  S4: you had the October 7th attack in Israel. A week later,
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  S4: The voice sunk. Then on November 7th, like three weeks later,
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  S4: you had that final of those interest rate rises, interest
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  S4: rates peaked. And the next day the Zeke High Court
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  S4: decision released from immigration detainees into the community. And from
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  S4: that point, we had this narrative of labor unravelling the
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  S4: coalition ascendant. I think we saw that right until the
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  S4: final week of Parliament last year and this last two
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  S4: or so months is the first time that the narrative
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  S4: has shifted and things look even. It was this labor dominance,
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  S4: coalition dominance, and it's changing so fast.
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  S1: It's going to be very interesting, I think. Thanks so
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  S1: much to you guys for taking time, because I know
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  S1: how busy it is and for bearing with me in
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  S1: this slightly fast and loose environment. And we're going to
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  S1: see you both again very soon.
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  S4: Thank you. Bye.
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  S7: See ya.
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  S1: Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel. Our executive producer
• 13:45
  S1: is Tami Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio.
• 13:48
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  S1: Sydney Morning Herald or The Age? I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank
• 14:12
  S1: you for listening.