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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the muster. It is time to catch
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: up with Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch. And I'm here to
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: remind you.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Of the mess you left when you went away. It's
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: not fair to deny me a cry.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Phil Duncan, good afternoon.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Mr Muir.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: We might have some sunshine on the horizon.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a bit of a change, isn't it? Overdue
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: So what have we got for the next seven days?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: We had sunshine on Wednesday. It was a thing of beauty,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: I tell you. Yesterday wasn't too bad either. Showers on
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: the radar for this afternoon. For the next seven days,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: are we going to be able to get the tailing
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: pens going, get the tractors out into the paddock?
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can finally, you know, spread your wings and fly.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: The weather is definitely changing, and that usually happens in October. October, usually,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: we get these little moments where it feels like summer
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: is actually arriving. Not necessarily with the super heat, but
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: just you're finding that you're not using perhaps your own
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: heaters and heat pumps and fires as much, and that
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: you might be flipping the T-shirt on a bit more
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: and things like that. So... We do have a change
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: coming thanks to a whole lot of high pressure that
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: is moving in. And while we've had a lot of
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: high pressure around New Zealand in recent weeks and months,
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: it hasn't been over us. That's why we've had all
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: the wind and the changeable weather. So high pressure is
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: rolling on in over the top of us. And so
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: we've got a cold change today, southerly coming in today,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: and it will get cold tonight. There could be frosts
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: tonight around Southland. In fact, I expect them. So tomorrow's
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: not an overly warm day, but things change after that,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: and that's where we see the temperatures creeping up as
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: we go through into Sunday. Excuse me, I said the
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: frost was tonight. It's tomorrow night. So tomorrow night, Saturday night,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: down to one degree or zero. Frost when you wake
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: up on Sunday. Sunday's temperatures lift up a few degrees,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: but it's next week that's warm. So the temperatures next week,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Wednesday's the coldest day with a high of 16 degrees.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: That is not too bad. And you've got a little
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: bit of rain, four millimetres worth. That's not much. And
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: then the rest of the temperatures, I say 16 is
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: the lowest, 21, 22 is the highest. So it is
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: a lot warmer as we go into next week and
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: certainly next weekend. There is a change as that big
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: high that's over us moves out to our east, heads
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: off towards the Chathams, and then that brings down subtropical northerlies.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: And so the positive note I want to give you
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: is that Southland, in particular Gore, is going to be
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: warmer than where I am in Auckland as we go
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: through next week.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: How long is this weather going to stay for, would
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: you say? Have you any ideas?
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: So if I look at my long range weather map here,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: let's sort of load it up a bit. So what
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: happens is I say it warms up right as we
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: go into next weekend. So we've got a whole lot
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: of northerlies and west coast rain and those north to
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: north westerlies come out of Australia. So they're warm. Now
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: there could be a little bit of a cold change
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: a week and a half from now. but still more
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: nor'westers coming back in. There is what looks to be
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: low-pressure crossing New Zealand the middle of the month. I've
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: got to stress that's, you know, 15, 14 days away
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: from now. Highly changeable when you're that far out in spring.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: And that shows the next winter southerly coming back in,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: the polar boundary coming back in around the middle of
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: the month with some low-pressure crossing New Zealand, which could
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: be very good timing if it brings in rain around
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: the country, which will be overdue by then. So we've
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: still got the chance of polar snaps. And if you
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: zoom out and you look at the weather map that
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: includes Australia in it as well, what I'm seeing there
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: is a number of cold events. So the southeast corner, Victoria, Tasmania,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: they're getting the polar boundary surging in a couple of times,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: two or three times. That's what you were getting before.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: So what I'm saying by that is we're not finished
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: with these polar blasts. They're like solar flares, but they're
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: polar flares. And If you think about Antarctica as this
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: sort of hub of really cold weather, cold air, it
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: sends these bursts of cold out from Antarctica, just like
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: when you see a solar flare coming off the sun.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: And just like a solar flare, it pops out in
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: one part. So it's popping out over the Australia side
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: at the moment more than the Southland side, although there
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: isn't a lot of difference between the two when you
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: zoom out on a map. But I mention that because
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: We're in a warm spell, but we're still seeing these
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: shots of cold air coming out into Australia, which means
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: that could still happen to us this month and maybe
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: even going into November.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: How far through this El Nino weather system are we?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: And I ask you that because it seems as though
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the deep south and possibly the west coast are the
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: areas in New Zealand that have been affected the most.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's a good question. The El Nino is
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: still intensifying. I just put out my latest Climate Watch update,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: which looks at the month of October and around New
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Zealand and Australia and the South Pacific, and it looks
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: at the weather pattern and El Nino and all the
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: other stuff. So in that video, one of the things
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: I talked about was where we are on the El
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Nino graph, and then pointing out that it's still intensifying
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: as we go through October and November. So it's at
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: almost record levels at the moment. For El Nino to
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: be declared, it means that the sea temperatures up at
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: the equator are about Nearly one degree above normal, so
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: 0.8 degrees above normal. At the moment, it's over 2.7
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: degrees above normal. So it is a long way past
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: what we would say is El Nino. It's near record levels.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: It's going to keep strengthening the next two months, which
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: could make it a record breaker. And then it starts
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: to taper back down again during summer. So to understand
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: how that looks on a graph, where we are now
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: at the start of October is how it will look
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: by the start of February. So it peaks in November
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: and December, and then it comes back down again to
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: the levels we're at now. So we're in a solid
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: El Nino between now and February, which is a fair
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: bit of time. And obviously that could be still around
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: going into autumn. In saying all of that, El Nino
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: affects our weather around about 25%. So it's part of
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: the equation. But we've got other things going on as well,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: including the high pressure belt around Australia. and how stormy
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: the Southern Ocean is. And the Southern Ocean being stormy,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: while it's not great for you guys, it's a good
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: thing for New Zealand because it does give us more
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: chances of getting wet weather and typically a dry kind
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: of spring.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: We had a good howling nor'wester last night. As far
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: as winds over the next seven days, what have we got?
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the nor'westers are around a wee bit. That's why
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: your temperatures are going up. Nothing too serious. Today's a
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: little bit windy with the westerly blowings. Wind is not
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: a feature really coming through, but those nor'westers and westerlies,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: they're the common theme. And so you'll feel those, but
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: because high pressure will be coming in and over us,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: that's why we've got frosts and some still cold nights
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: just over the next few nights ahead. The winds are
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: going to be pretty light. So wind isn't too much
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: of a problem. Frost is an issue on Sunday. There's
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: a likely frost coming through on Sunday morning, Saturday night,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Sunday morning. And there also might be a little bit
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: of fog around because we are at that time of
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: year where you get warmer days, colder nights. The sea
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: is still at lower temperatures and you get high pressure
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: over you that causes fog. So fog is possible as
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: well on Sunday with that frost. And we could be
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: seeing a little bit of fog around going into next week.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Not much, but just a little bit around. And if
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: it's not fog, it just might be a little bit
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: of morning cloud that turns away.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Good news for the next seven days, Phil Duncan. Whenever
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: you look into your Weather Watch Datatronic 2000 and give
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: us this data, you're our favourite weather person in the South.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Oh, it's the best machine in the world, honestly. Everyone
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: should have one.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Good on you, Phil. Enjoy your weekend.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: You too, buddy. Thank you.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Phil Duncan of Weather Watch. Every Friday here in the muster,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: go and give him a follow on his social media
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: channels and YouTube as well. Morgan Green's up next from
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Northern Southland Vets.