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A Deep Dive into Fixed Income with DoubleLine's Jeffrey Sherman · Views from 6,230

• 0:01
  Welcome
• 0:02
  to
• 0:02
  the
• 0:02
  Adjusted
• 0:03
  for
• 0:03
  Risk
• 0:03
  Podcast.
• 0:05
  Join
• 0:05
  myself,
• 0:06
  Brian
• 0:06
  Nauman
• 0:07
  as
• 0:07
  I
• 0:07
  talk
• 0:07
  market
• 0:08
  investments
• 0:09
  economic.
• 0:09
  Let's
• 0:09
  get
• 0:09
  started
• 0:10
  in
• 0:10
  life
• 0:11
  as
• 0:11
  I
• 0:11
  help
• 0:11
  prepare
• 0:12
  you
• 0:12
  for
• 0:12
  the
• 0:13
  upcoming
• 0:13
  in
• 0:14
  markets.
• 0:15
  I
• 0:15
  work
• 0:16
  for
• 0:16
  Zephyr
• 0:17
  in
• 0:17
  all
• 0:17
  of
• 0:17
  Queens
• 0:18
  Express
• 0:18
  by.
• 0:18
  Self
• 0:19
  in
• 0:19
  my
• 0:20
  podcast,
• 0:20
  guests
• 0:21
  are
• 0:21
  solely
• 0:21
  of
• 0:21
  their
• 0:22
  own
• 0:22
  opinions
• 0:22
  and
• 0:23
  do
• 0:23
  not
• 0:23
  reflect
• 0:24
  the
• 0:24
  opinion
• 0:24
  of
• 0:25
  Zephyr
• 0:26
  or
• 0:26
  Informa
• 0:27
  its
• 0:27
  parents
• 0:27
  company.
• 0:29
  This
• 0:29
  podcast
• 0:30
  is
• 0:30
  for
• 0:30
  information
• 0:31
  and
• 0:31
  purposes
• 0:32
  only
• 0:32
  and
• 0:32
  should
• 0:32
  not
• 0:33
  be
• 0:33
  relied
• 0:33
  on
• 0:34
  for
• 0:34
  investment
• 0:35
  decisions.
• 0:39
  Let's
• 0:39
  go.
• 0:40
  Jeffrey,
• 0:41
  you
• 0:41
  like
• 0:41
  that
• 0:41
  walkup
• 0:42
  music?
• 0:42
  I
• 0:43
  mean,
• 0:43
  that
• 0:43
  was
• 0:43
  amazing.
• 0:43
  That
• 0:43
  was
• 0:44
  amazing.
• 0:44
  Did
• 0:44
  everybody
• 0:44
  else
• 0:45
  get
• 0:45
  to
• 0:45
  hear
• 0:45
  it
• 0:45
  or
• 0:45
  is
• 0:45
  it
• 0:45
  just
• 0:45
  me?
• 0:46
  Yeah,
• 0:46
  I,
• 0:47
  I
• 0:47
  hope
• 0:47
  everyone
• 0:48
  did
• 0:48
  be.
• 0:48
  I
• 0:48
  it
• 0:48
  took
• 0:49
  a
• 0:49
  lot
• 0:49
  of
• 0:49
  time
• 0:49
  trying
• 0:50
  to
• 0:50
  pick
• 0:50
  that
• 0:50
  walkup
• 0:51
  song
• 0:51
  up.
• 0:51
  Well,
• 0:52
  the
• 0:52
  thing
• 0:52
  is,
• 0:52
  is
• 0:52
  that,
• 0:52
  uh,
• 0:53
  I
• 0:53
  always
• 0:53
  have
• 0:53
  walkup
• 0:54
  music
• 0:54
  in
• 0:54
  my
• 0:54
  head,
• 0:54
  so
• 0:54
  I
• 0:55
  wasn't
• 0:55
  sure
• 0:55
  if
• 0:55
  it,
• 0:55
  I
• 0:55
  created
• 0:56
  that
• 0:56
  and
• 0:56
  sourced
• 0:56
  it,
• 0:57
  or
• 0:57
  if
• 0:57
  it
• 0:57
  was
• 0:57
  from
• 0:57
  you.
• 0:57
  Yeah.
• 0:58
  So
• 0:58
  I,
• 0:58
  I,
• 0:58
  it
• 0:58
  was
• 0:58
  a
• 0:58
  good
• 0:58
  choice.
• 0:59
  Good.
• 0:59
  Good,
• 1:00
  good.
• 1:00
  Welcome
• 1:01
  everyone
• 1:01
  to
• 1:02
  zephyr's
• 1:02
  Adjusted
• 1:03
  Forest
• 1:03
  podcast.
• 1:04
  We
• 1:04
  are
• 1:05
  on
• 1:05
  site
• 1:06
  at
• 1:06
  Exchange
• 1:06
  ETF
• 1:07
  conference
• 1:07
  in
• 1:08
  Las
• 1:08
  Vegas,
• 1:08
  and
• 1:09
  I
• 1:09
  tell
• 1:09
  you
• 1:09
  I'm
• 1:10
  really
• 1:10
  happy
• 1:11
  that
• 1:11
  we've,
• 1:12
  uh,
• 1:12
  we've
• 1:12
  scheduled
• 1:13
  this
• 1:13
  podcast
• 1:14
  outside
• 1:14
  at
• 1:14
  11
• 1:15
  in
• 1:15
  the
• 1:15
  morning
• 1:15
  before
• 1:15
  it
• 1:15
  gets
• 1:16
  really
• 1:16
  hot.
• 1:16
  That's
• 1:17
  a
• 1:17
  beautiful
• 1:17
  day.
• 1:17
  Perfect
• 1:18
  timing.
• 1:18
  We
• 1:18
  got,
• 1:18
  we
• 1:19
  got
• 1:19
  some
• 1:19
  fake
• 1:19
  plants
• 1:19
  behind
• 1:20
  us
• 1:20
  and
• 1:20
  we
• 1:20
  got
• 1:20
  some
• 1:20
  real
• 1:20
  palm
• 1:21
  trees
• 1:21
  in
• 1:21
  front
• 1:21
  of
• 1:21
  us,
• 1:22
  so
• 1:22
  it's
• 1:22
  looking
• 1:22
  good.
• 1:22
  It's
• 1:22
  fantastic.
• 1:23
  Um,
• 1:24
  with
• 1:24
  me,
• 1:25
  Jeffrey,
• 1:26
  you
• 1:26
  don't
• 1:26
  really
• 1:26
  need
• 1:27
  an
• 1:27
  introduction,
• 1:27
  but
• 1:28
  with
• 1:28
  me
• 1:28
  is
• 1:28
  one
• 1:28
  of
• 1:28
  the
• 1:28
  keynote
• 1:29
  speakers
• 1:29
  of
• 1:30
  the
• 1:30
  event,
• 1:31
  Jeffrey
• 1:31
  Sherman.
• 1:32
  Uh,
• 1:32
  Jeffrey,
• 1:33
  thank
• 1:33
  you
• 1:34
  so
• 1:34
  much
• 1:34
  for
• 1:34
  coming
• 1:35
  back
• 1:35
  on
• 1:35
  the
• 1:35
  show.
• 1:35
  We.
• 1:36
  At
• 1:37
  this
• 1:37
  event
• 1:37
  last
• 1:37
  year.
• 1:38
  That's
• 1:38
  right.
• 1:38
  Great
• 1:39
  conversation.
• 1:40
  Honor
• 1:40
  to
• 1:40
  have
• 1:41
  you
• 1:41
  back
• 1:41
  on.
• 1:41
  Normally
• 1:42
  when
• 1:42
  I
• 1:42
  open
• 1:42
  up
• 1:42
  the
• 1:43
  podcast,
• 1:43
  say
• 1:43
  we're,
• 1:44
  you
• 1:44
  know,
• 1:44
  live
• 1:45
  on
• 1:45
  the
• 1:45
  shores
• 1:46
  of
• 1:46
  Lake
• 1:46
  Tahoe.
• 1:47
  We
• 1:47
  are
• 1:47
  not
• 1:47
  in
• 1:47
  Lake
• 1:48
  Tahoe
• 1:48
  today.
• 1:49
  No.
• 1:49
  No
• 1:49
  Dondo.
• 1:50
  No
• 1:50
  Dondo.
• 1:50
  You're
• 1:50
  not,
• 1:51
  yeah.
• 1:52
  You,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:53
  you
• 1:53
  have
• 1:53
  some
• 1:53
  connections
• 1:54
  at
• 1:54
  ta.
• 1:55
  Uh,
• 1:55
  yeah.
• 1:55
  Uh,
• 1:56
  my
• 1:56
  parents,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:56
  used
• 1:57
  to
• 1:57
  live
• 1:57
  up
• 1:57
  there.
• 1:57
  Um,
• 1:58
  you
• 1:58
  know,
• 1:58
  so
• 1:58
  I,
• 1:59
  I
• 1:59
  spent
• 1:59
  many,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 1:59
  summers
• 2:00
  up
• 2:00
  there
• 2:00
  as
• 2:00
  well.
• 2:00
  And,
• 2:01
  um,
• 2:01
  as
• 2:02
  I
• 2:02
  get
• 2:02
  older,
• 2:02
  I,
• 2:02
  I
• 2:02
  don't
• 2:02
  like
• 2:03
  the,
• 2:03
  the
• 2:03
  cold
• 2:03
  weather
• 2:04
  as
• 2:04
  much.
• 2:04
  Yeah.
• 2:04
  But,
• 2:05
  but,
• 2:05
  um,
• 2:05
  I
• 2:05
  don't
• 2:05
  think
• 2:06
  there's
• 2:06
  a
• 2:06
  better
• 2:06
  lake
• 2:06
  in
• 2:07
  the
• 2:07
  entire
• 2:07
  country
• 2:07
  up
• 2:08
  than,
• 2:08
  than
• 2:08
  Lake
• 2:08
  Tahoe.
• 2:08
  Yeah.
• 2:09
  Yeah.
• 2:09
  Uh.
• 2:10
  I
• 2:10
  am
• 2:10
  a
• 2:10
  little
• 2:11
  biased,
• 2:12
  a
• 2:12
  little
• 2:12
  biased
• 2:12
  since
• 2:13
  I
• 2:13
  lived
• 2:13
  there,
• 2:13
  but,
• 2:13
  uh,
• 2:14
  I
• 2:14
  agree.
• 2:14
  Yeah.
• 2:15
  I,
• 2:15
  although,
• 2:16
  although
• 2:16
  we
• 2:16
  could
• 2:16
  use
• 2:17
  some
• 2:17
  snow,
• 2:17
  Jeffrey,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:18
  70
• 2:19
  degrees
• 2:19
  this
• 2:20
  week.
• 2:20
  Yeah.
• 2:20
  Wow.
• 2:21
  That's
• 2:21
  pretty
• 2:21
  amazing.
• 2:22
  Well,
• 2:22
  there's
• 2:22
  the
• 2:22
  heat
• 2:22
  wave
• 2:22
  going
• 2:23
  through
• 2:23
  California.
• 2:23
  Yeah.
• 2:24
  Uh,
• 2:24
  when
• 2:24
  I
• 2:24
  drove
• 2:25
  back
• 2:25
  from
• 2:25
  the
• 2:25
  office
• 2:25
  on
• 2:25
  Thursday,
• 2:26
  it
• 2:26
  was
• 2:26
  like
• 2:26
  97
• 2:27
  going
• 2:27
  through
• 2:27
  the
• 2:27
  valley.
• 2:28
  So,
• 2:28
  um,
• 2:29
  I
• 2:30
  guess
• 2:30
  the
• 2:30
  rest
• 2:30
  of
• 2:30
  the,
• 2:30
  the
• 2:31
  rest
• 2:31
  of
• 2:31
  the
• 2:31
  country's
• 2:31
  gonna
• 2:31
  have
• 2:31
  any,
• 2:32
  any
• 2:32
  sympathy
• 2:33
  for
• 2:33
  us
• 2:33
  at
• 2:33
  all
• 2:33
  though.
• 2:33
  Yeah,
• 2:33
  they,
• 2:34
  they
• 2:34
  can
• 2:34
  have,
• 2:35
  they
• 2:35
  can
• 2:35
  have
• 2:35
  the
• 2:35
  snow
• 2:36
  that's,
• 2:36
  uh.
• 2:37
  Ripping
• 2:38
  across
• 2:38
  the
• 2:38
  country
• 2:38
  in
• 2:38
  those
• 2:39
  storms.
• 2:40
  Thank
• 2:40
  you
• 2:40
  again
• 2:40
  for
• 2:40
  coming
• 2:41
  on.
• 2:41
  It's
• 2:41
  an
• 2:41
  honor
• 2:42
  to
• 2:42
  have
• 2:42
  you
• 2:42
  on.
• 2:42
  Really
• 2:42
  excited.
• 2:43
  So
• 2:43
  much
• 2:43
  to
• 2:43
  talk
• 2:44
  about.
• 2:44
  So
• 2:44
  much
• 2:45
  to
• 2:45
  talk
• 2:45
  about.
• 2:45
  You
• 2:46
  know,
• 2:46
  like
• 2:46
  I
• 2:46
  said,
• 2:46
  LA
• 2:47
  we
• 2:47
  spoke
• 2:47
  last
• 2:48
  year,
• 2:48
  same
• 2:48
  event.
• 2:49
  I
• 2:49
  think
• 2:49
  last
• 2:49
  year
• 2:49
  we
• 2:50
  had
• 2:50
  the
• 2:50
  liberation
• 2:51
  day.
• 2:52
  Ah,
• 2:52
  to
• 2:52
  talk
• 2:52
  about.
• 2:53
  Yeah.
• 2:53
  Now
• 2:54
  we've
• 2:54
  got
• 2:54
  the
• 2:54
  conflict
• 2:55
  that
• 2:55
  feels
• 2:55
  as
• 2:55
  if,
• 2:56
  you
• 2:56
  know,
• 2:58
  things
• 2:58
  have
• 2:58
  changed,
• 2:59
  but
• 2:59
  then
• 2:59
  maybe
• 2:59
  they
• 2:59
  haven't
• 3:00
  changed
• 3:00
  a
• 3:00
  whole
• 3:01
  lot.
• 3:01
  Yeah.
• 3:01
  End
• 3:02
  of
• 3:02
  year.
• 3:03
  Um,
• 3:03
  but
• 3:04
  let's
• 3:04
  just
• 3:04
  start.
• 3:05
  Jeffrey,
• 3:05
  you're
• 3:05
  the
• 3:06
  deputy,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:07
  CIO,
• 3:07
  chief
• 3:08
  Investment
• 3:08
  Officer
• 3:09
  at
• 3:09
  Double
• 3:09
  Line.
• 3:09
  Tell
• 3:10
  us
• 3:10
  a
• 3:10
  little
• 3:10
  bit
• 3:10
  more
• 3:10
  about
• 3:10
  Double
• 3:11
  Line.
• 3:11
  Um,
• 3:12
  we're
• 3:12
  a
• 3:12
  Los
• 3:13
  Angeles
• 3:13
  based,
• 3:14
  um,
• 3:14
  uh,
• 3:15
  investment
• 3:16
  management
• 3:16
  firm.
• 3:16
  We
• 3:16
  run
• 3:17
  just
• 3:17
  shy
• 3:17
  of
• 3:18
  a
• 3:18
  hundred
• 3:18
  billion
• 3:18
  dollars.
• 3:19
  Um,
• 3:20
  we
• 3:20
  focus
• 3:20
  on
• 3:20
  institutional
• 3:21
  and
• 3:21
  wealth
• 3:21
  management
• 3:22
  clients,
• 3:22
  so
• 3:22
  we
• 3:22
  have
• 3:23
  separate
• 3:23
  accounts.
• 3:23
  We
• 3:23
  run
• 3:24
  mutual
• 3:24
  funds
• 3:24
  ETFs.
• 3:25
  Shocking.
• 3:25
  We're
• 3:26
  at
• 3:26
  the
• 3:26
  ETF
• 3:26
  conference,
• 3:26
  right?
• 3:27
  Um,
• 3:28
  we
• 3:28
  run
• 3:28
  UIDs.
• 3:28
  We
• 3:28
  have
• 3:29
  an
• 3:29
  international
• 3:29
  business.
• 3:30
  Um,
• 3:31
  you
• 3:31
  know,
• 3:31
  we
• 3:31
  think
• 3:31
  of
• 3:31
  ourselves
• 3:32
  as
• 3:32
  a,
• 3:32
  a
• 3:32
  full
• 3:32
  service
• 3:33
  investment
• 3:33
  firm
• 3:34
  with
• 3:34
  a
• 3:34
  heavy
• 3:34
  focus
• 3:35
  on
• 3:35
  fixed
• 3:35
  income.
• 3:36
  And
• 3:36
  that's,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:37
  that's
• 3:37
  one
• 3:37
  of
• 3:37
  our
• 3:37
  specialties
• 3:38
  out
• 3:38
  there.
• 3:39
  And,
• 3:39
  uh,
• 3:39
  you
• 3:39
  know,
• 3:39
  we
• 3:40
  just
• 3:40
  look
• 3:40
  to
• 3:40
  provide
• 3:40
  solutions
• 3:41
  to
• 3:41
  clients
• 3:42
  and,
• 3:42
  you
• 3:42
  know,
• 3:42
  we,
• 3:43
  we've
• 3:43
  always
• 3:43
  been
• 3:43
  agnostic
• 3:44
  to
• 3:44
  what
• 3:44
  wrapper
• 3:45
  you
• 3:45
  use.
• 3:45
  Meaning
• 3:46
  do
• 3:46
  you
• 3:46
  buy
• 3:46
  in
• 3:46
  a
• 3:46
  fund,
• 3:47
  a
• 3:47
  mutual
• 3:47
  fund?
• 3:48
  Do
• 3:48
  you
• 3:48
  buy
• 3:48
  in
• 3:48
  ETFA
• 3:49
  use
• 3:49
  it?
• 3:49
  It's
• 3:50
  just
• 3:50
  bringing
• 3:50
  our
• 3:51
  investment
• 3:51
  acumen
• 3:52
  and
• 3:52
  expertise
• 3:53
  mm-hmm.
• 3:53
  Uh,
• 3:53
  to
• 3:54
  however
• 3:54
  people
• 3:54
  want
• 3:54
  to
• 3:54
  access
• 3:55
  the
• 3:55
  product.
• 3:55
  And
• 3:55
  so,
• 3:56
  um,
• 3:56
  you
• 3:57
  know,
• 3:57
  with
• 3:57
  the
• 3:58
  kind
• 3:58
  of,
• 3:58
  um.
• 3:59
  I
• 3:59
  would
• 3:59
  say
• 3:59
  the
• 4:00
  amount
• 4:00
  of
• 4:00
  growth
• 4:00
  in
• 4:00
  the
• 4:00
  ETF
• 4:01
  industry,
• 4:01
  you
• 4:01
  can't
• 4:02
  ignore
• 4:02
  it.
• 4:02
  Um,
• 4:03
  but
• 4:03
  we've
• 4:03
  also
• 4:04
  not
• 4:04
  just
• 4:05
  started
• 4:05
  an
• 4:05
  ETF
• 4:05
  business.
• 4:06
  We've
• 4:06
  been
• 4:06
  running
• 4:06
  actively
• 4:07
  managed
• 4:07
  ETFs
• 4:08
  for
• 4:08
  over
• 4:08
  10
• 4:08
  years
• 4:08
  now.
• 4:09
  Um,
• 4:09
  a
• 4:09
  couple
• 4:10
  of
• 4:10
  them
• 4:10
  under
• 4:10
  spider
• 4:10
  brand,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:11
  spider
• 4:11
  double
• 4:12
  line,
• 4:12
  uh,
• 4:12
  whether
• 4:13
  that's
• 4:13
  total
• 4:13
  return
• 4:13
  tactical
• 4:14
  or,
• 4:14
  you
• 4:14
  know,
• 4:14
  our,
• 4:15
  our
• 4:15
  shorter
• 4:15
  duration
• 4:16
  product
• 4:16
  there.
• 4:17
  Um,
• 4:17
  so
• 4:17
  we
• 4:17
  have
• 4:17
  a,
• 4:18
  a
• 4:18
  lot
• 4:18
  of
• 4:18
  experience
• 4:19
  in
• 4:19
  the
• 4:19
  ETF
• 4:19
  wrapper
• 4:20
  as
• 4:20
  well.
• 4:20
  Mm-hmm.
• 4:21
  And
• 4:21
  then,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:21
  four,
• 4:21
  four
• 4:22
  years
• 4:22
  ago.
• 4:23
  We
• 4:23
  launched
• 4:23
  our
• 4:23
  own
• 4:23
  ETF
• 4:24
  complex
• 4:24
  as
• 4:24
  well.
• 4:24
  So,
• 4:25
  um,
• 4:25
  we
• 4:25
  just,
• 4:26
  we
• 4:26
  kind
• 4:26
  of
• 4:26
  go
• 4:26
  to
• 4:26
  where
• 4:27
  the
• 4:27
  markets
• 4:27
  are
• 4:27
  moving
• 4:28
  and
• 4:28
  where
• 4:28
  people
• 4:29
  want
• 4:29
  product
• 4:29
  and,
• 4:30
  um,
• 4:30
  you
• 4:30
  know,
• 4:30
  we,
• 4:31
  we
• 4:31
  build
• 4:31
  products
• 4:31
  that
• 4:32
  we
• 4:32
  wanna
• 4:32
  invest
• 4:33
  in
• 4:33
  ourselves
• 4:34
  and
• 4:34
  hopefully,
• 4:34
  you
• 4:35
  know,
• 4:35
  that's
• 4:35
  what
• 4:35
  other
• 4:35
  people,
• 4:36
  uh,
• 4:36
  see
• 4:36
  as
• 4:36
  well.
• 4:37
  So.
• 4:37
  Um,
• 4:37
  you
• 4:38
  know,
• 4:38
  it's
• 4:38
  continuing
• 4:38
  to
• 4:38
  grow
• 4:39
  and,
• 4:39
  um,
• 4:39
  we're
• 4:39
  excited
• 4:40
  about,
• 4:40
  um,
• 4:40
  you
• 4:40
  know,
• 4:40
  just
• 4:41
  the
• 4:41
  opportunity
• 4:41
  out
• 4:41
  there.
• 4:42
  Yeah.
• 4:42
  I
• 4:42
  feel
• 4:43
  as
• 4:43
  if
• 4:43
  that's
• 4:43
  so
• 4:43
  important,
• 4:44
  Jeffrey.
• 4:44
  Like,
• 4:45
  I
• 4:45
  don't
• 4:45
  want
• 4:46
  to
• 4:46
  invest
• 4:47
  in
• 4:47
  a
• 4:47
  product
• 4:47
  that
• 4:48
  the
• 4:48
  manager
• 4:48
  doesn't
• 4:49
  wanna
• 4:49
  invest
• 4:49
  alongside
• 4:50
  me.
• 4:50
  Yeah.
• 4:50
  Well
• 4:51
  I
• 4:51
  always,
• 4:51
  I
• 4:51
  always
• 4:51
  joke
• 4:52
  'cause
• 4:52
  we
• 4:52
  get
• 4:52
  a
• 4:52
  lot
• 4:52
  of
• 4:52
  things
• 4:53
  where
• 4:53
  clients
• 4:53
  will
• 4:54
  say,
• 4:54
  well,
• 4:54
  is
• 4:54
  this
• 4:54
  your
• 4:54
  best
• 4:55
  ideas
• 4:55
  portfolio?
• 4:56
  And
• 4:56
  I'm
• 4:56
  like,
• 4:56
  of
• 4:57
  course
• 4:57
  we,
• 4:58
  we
• 4:58
  don't
• 4:58
  run
• 4:58
  a
• 4:58
  bad
• 4:59
  idea
• 4:59
  portfolio.
• 5:00
  Right.
• 5:00
  It
• 5:00
  may
• 5:01
  be
• 5:01
  bad,
• 5:01
  it
• 5:01
  may
• 5:01
  be
• 5:01
  bad,
• 5:02
  it
• 5:02
  may,
• 5:03
  it
• 5:03
  may
• 5:03
  be
• 5:03
  a
• 5:03
  bad
• 5:03
  idea,
• 5:04
  but
• 5:04
  we
• 5:04
  didn't
• 5:04
  think
• 5:05
  it
• 5:05
  was
• 5:05
  a
• 5:05
  bad
• 5:05
  idea
• 5:05
  portfolio.
• 5:06
  Right.
• 5:06
  So.
• 5:07
  At
• 5:07
  the
• 5:07
  end
• 5:07
  of
• 5:07
  the
• 5:07
  day,
• 5:07
  we,
• 5:08
  we
• 5:08
  have,
• 5:09
  we're
• 5:09
  bringing
• 5:09
  the
• 5:09
  same
• 5:09
  process
• 5:10
  to
• 5:10
  each
• 5:11
  of
• 5:11
  our
• 5:11
  products.
• 5:12
  It
• 5:12
  just
• 5:12
  depends
• 5:12
  on
• 5:12
  what's
• 5:13
  the
• 5:13
  parameters,
• 5:13
  the
• 5:13
  guidelines,
• 5:14
  the,
• 5:15
  you
• 5:15
  know,
• 5:15
  constraints
• 5:16
  we
• 5:16
  have
• 5:16
  there
• 5:17
  and
• 5:17
  how
• 5:17
  it's
• 5:17
  supposed
• 5:17
  to
• 5:17
  behave
• 5:18
  through
• 5:18
  a
• 5:18
  cycle.
• 5:18
  But
• 5:19
  in
• 5:19
  general.
• 5:20
  Regardless
• 5:20
  of
• 5:20
  the
• 5:21
  product
• 5:21
  you're
• 5:21
  getting
• 5:22
  from
• 5:22
  us,
• 5:22
  you're
• 5:22
  getting
• 5:23
  the
• 5:23
  same
• 5:23
  type
• 5:23
  of
• 5:23
  thinking,
• 5:24
  the
• 5:24
  same
• 5:24
  folks
• 5:25
  that
• 5:25
  are
• 5:25
  making
• 5:25
  those
• 5:25
  decisions
• 5:26
  as
• 5:26
  well.
• 5:26
  Mm-hmm.
• 5:27
  No,
• 5:27
  that's
• 5:27
  fantastic.
• 5:28
  I
• 5:28
  love
• 5:28
  that.
• 5:28
  Yeah.
• 5:29
  The
• 5:29
  best,
• 5:30
  the
• 5:30
  best
• 5:31
  product,
• 5:31
  best
• 5:32
  ideas.
• 5:32
  Well,
• 5:32
  of
• 5:32
  course
• 5:33
  they're
• 5:33
  gonna
• 5:33
  be
• 5:34
  great
• 5:34
  ideas.
• 5:35
  I
• 5:35
  love
• 5:35
  it.
• 5:35
  So
• 5:35
  let's,
• 5:36
  let's
• 5:37
  start
• 5:37
  on
• 5:37
  the
• 5:37
  macro
• 5:38
  level
• 5:38
  here.
• 5:39
  Uh,
• 5:40
  there's
• 5:40
  a
• 5:40
  lot
• 5:40
  to
• 5:41
  contend
• 5:41
  with.
• 5:41
  We've
• 5:41
  got
• 5:41
  a
• 5:42
  new
• 5:42
  Fed
• 5:42
  chairman,
• 5:43
  we've
• 5:43
  got
• 5:43
  the
• 5:43
  war.
• 5:45
  Conflict
• 5:46
  and
• 5:46
  Iran,
• 5:47
  however
• 5:47
  you
• 5:47
  want
• 5:47
  to
• 5:48
  say
• 5:48
  it.
• 5:48
  I
• 5:48
  think
• 5:48
  once
• 5:48
  you've
• 5:48
  roped
• 5:49
  in
• 5:49
  12
• 5:49
  or
• 5:49
  13
• 5:50
  countries,
• 5:50
  it's
• 5:50
  no
• 5:51
  longer
• 5:51
  a
• 5:51
  skirmish
• 5:52
  or
• 5:52
  a
• 5:52
  conflict.
• 5:52
  I
• 5:53
  think
• 5:53
  you
• 5:53
  kind
• 5:53
  of
• 5:53
  gotta
• 5:54
  use
• 5:54
  the
• 5:54
  war
• 5:54
  word.
• 5:54
  So
• 5:55
  we
• 5:55
  can
• 5:55
  use
• 5:55
  the
• 5:55
  war.
• 5:56
  That
• 5:56
  three
• 5:56
  letter
• 5:57
  word,
• 5:57
  we
• 5:57
  can
• 5:57
  use
• 5:58
  it.
• 5:58
  Okay.
• 5:59
  Um,
• 6:00
  labor
• 6:00
  market
• 6:00
  supply,
• 6:01
  demand
• 6:02
  has
• 6:02
  softened.
• 6:03
  Inflation
• 6:04
  is
• 6:04
  cool,
• 6:04
  but
• 6:05
  it
• 6:05
  remains
• 6:06
  sticky
• 6:06
  here.
• 6:07
  So,
• 6:08
  but
• 6:08
  with
• 6:08
  that,
• 6:09
  economic
• 6:09
  growth
• 6:09
  remains
• 6:10
  solid.
• 6:11
  Um,
• 6:12
  right
• 6:12
  now,
• 6:13
  how
• 6:13
  do
• 6:13
  you
• 6:13
  shift
• 6:14
  through
• 6:14
  all
• 6:14
  this
• 6:14
  macro
• 6:15
  noise,
• 6:16
  this
• 6:16
  macro
• 6:17
  environment,
• 6:18
  and
• 6:18
  is
• 6:19
  there
• 6:19
  one
• 6:19
  item
• 6:19
  that
• 6:20
  you're
• 6:20
  really
• 6:20
  focusing
• 6:21
  on?
• 6:22
  Well,
• 6:22
  that's
• 6:23
  a,
• 6:23
  that
• 6:23
  is
• 6:23
  a
• 6:23
  lot.
• 6:24
  Um,
• 6:24
  so
• 6:25
  from,
• 6:25
  from
• 6:25
  the
• 6:25
  standpoint
• 6:26
  of
• 6:27
  the
• 6:27
  Fed,
• 6:28
  don't
• 6:28
  forget
• 6:28
  that
• 6:28
  they
• 6:29
  don't
• 6:29
  forecast
• 6:29
  growth.
• 6:30
  They
• 6:30
  do
• 6:30
  put
• 6:31
  in
• 6:31
  their
• 6:31
  forecast,
• 6:31
  but
• 6:31
  their
• 6:32
  mandate
• 6:32
  has
• 6:32
  nothing
• 6:33
  to
• 6:33
  do
• 6:33
  with.
• 6:34
  Growth
• 6:34
  in
• 6:34
  the
• 6:34
  economy.
• 6:35
  So
• 6:35
  they
• 6:35
  focus
• 6:36
  on
• 6:36
  two
• 6:36
  things.
• 6:37
  The
• 6:37
  inflation,
• 6:37
  they
• 6:38
  call
• 6:38
  it
• 6:38
  price
• 6:38
  stability.
• 6:39
  I
• 6:39
  call
• 6:39
  it
• 6:40
  that
• 6:40
  they
• 6:40
  only
• 6:40
  wanna
• 6:40
  steal
• 6:40
  2%
• 6:41
  of
• 6:41
  your
• 6:41
  money
• 6:41
  a
• 6:41
  year.
• 6:42
  Uh,
• 6:42
  that's
• 6:42
  what
• 6:42
  the
• 6:42
  inflation
• 6:43
  is.
• 6:43
  And
• 6:44
  I,
• 6:44
  I
• 6:44
  love
• 6:44
  the
• 6:44
  planes
• 6:44
  overhead.
• 6:45
  It
• 6:45
  makes
• 6:45
  us
• 6:46
  feel
• 6:46
  like
• 6:46
  we're
• 6:46
  at
• 6:46
  home.
• 6:47
  Um,
• 6:47
  but,
• 6:48
  but,
• 6:48
  um,
• 6:48
  but
• 6:48
  the
• 6:49
  thing
• 6:49
  is,
• 6:49
  and
• 6:49
  then,
• 6:49
  and
• 6:49
  they
• 6:49
  always
• 6:50
  have
• 6:50
  a
• 6:50
  focus
• 6:50
  on
• 6:50
  what
• 6:51
  they
• 6:51
  call
• 6:51
  full
• 6:51
  employment.
• 6:52
  And
• 6:53
  so
• 6:53
  those
• 6:54
  two
• 6:55
  signals
• 6:55
  are
• 6:56
  the
• 6:56
  two
• 6:56
  things
• 6:56
  that
• 6:56
  they're
• 6:56
  trying
• 6:57
  to,
• 6:58
  that
• 6:58
  are
• 6:58
  at
• 6:58
  the
• 6:58
  core
• 6:59
  of
• 6:59
  the
• 6:59
  central,
• 6:59
  their
• 6:59
  mandate.
• 7:00
  Are
• 7:01
  in
• 7:01
  conflict
• 7:01
  with
• 7:01
  each
• 7:02
  other
• 7:02
  right
• 7:02
  now.
• 7:02
  So
• 7:03
  that's
• 7:03
  actually
• 7:03
  a
• 7:03
  conflict.
• 7:04
  It's,
• 7:04
  it's
• 7:04
  not
• 7:04
  a
• 7:04
  war
• 7:04
  between,
• 7:05
  it's
• 7:05
  not
• 7:05
  a,
• 7:05
  it's
• 7:05
  not
• 7:05
  a
• 7:06
  war
• 7:06
  between
• 7:06
  labor
• 7:06
  and
• 7:06
  inflation.
• 7:07
  It's
• 7:07
  a
• 7:07
  conflict.
• 7:08
  But,
• 7:09
  so
• 7:09
  what
• 7:09
  you
• 7:09
  have
• 7:10
  is,
• 7:10
  you,
• 7:10
  you
• 7:10
  mentioned
• 7:10
  the
• 7:11
  softening
• 7:11
  and
• 7:11
  definitely
• 7:12
  the
• 7:12
  demand
• 7:12
  side
• 7:12
  of
• 7:13
  labor
• 7:13
  had
• 7:13
  been
• 7:13
  softening.
• 7:14
  Um,
• 7:15
  and,
• 7:15
  but
• 7:15
  the
• 7:16
  other
• 7:16
  thing
• 7:16
  that's
• 7:16
  happened
• 7:16
  over
• 7:17
  the
• 7:17
  last
• 7:17
  years
• 7:17
  is
• 7:17
  we've
• 7:17
  had
• 7:17
  a
• 7:17
  softening
• 7:18
  of
• 7:18
  labor
• 7:18
  supply,
• 7:19
  meaning
• 7:20
  that,
• 7:20
  you
• 7:20
  know,
• 7:20
  we
• 7:20
  have
• 7:20
  fewer
• 7:21
  people
• 7:21
  working.
• 7:21
  And
• 7:22
  the
• 7:22
  last
• 7:22
  jobs
• 7:22
  report
• 7:23
  was
• 7:23
  a
• 7:23
  little
• 7:23
  tough
• 7:24
  because
• 7:24
  the,
• 7:24
  the
• 7:25
  participation
• 7:26
  rate,
• 7:26
  labor
• 7:26
  participation
• 7:27
  rate
• 7:27
  went
• 7:27
  down
• 7:27
  meaningfully.
• 7:28
  It
• 7:28
  went
• 7:28
  down
• 7:29
  like
• 7:29
  40
• 7:29
  basis
• 7:29
  points,
• 7:30
  which
• 7:30
  you
• 7:30
  don't
• 7:30
  typically
• 7:31
  see
• 7:31
  in
• 7:31
  a
• 7:31
  month
• 7:31
  to
• 7:31
  month.
• 7:32
  So
• 7:32
  I
• 7:32
  wonder
• 7:32
  if
• 7:32
  there's
• 7:33
  some
• 7:33
  noise
• 7:33
  in
• 7:33
  there.
• 7:34
  But
• 7:34
  remember,
• 7:34
  we
• 7:35
  we're
• 7:35
  still
• 7:35
  kind
• 7:35
  of
• 7:35
  giving
• 7:36
  the,
• 7:36
  the,
• 7:36
  the
• 7:36
  pullback
• 7:37
  from
• 7:37
  the
• 7:37
  government
• 7:38
  shutdown,
• 7:39
  you
• 7:39
  know,
• 7:39
  um,
• 7:40
  we
• 7:40
  still
• 7:40
  have
• 7:40
  some
• 7:40
  of
• 7:40
  those
• 7:41
  things
• 7:41
  out
• 7:41
  there,
• 7:42
  but
• 7:42
  the
• 7:42
  Fed
• 7:42
  chairperson,
• 7:43
  it's,
• 7:44
  it's,
• 7:44
  it's
• 7:44
  a
• 7:44
  really
• 7:45
  interesting
• 7:45
  pick
• 7:46
  to
• 7:46
  have
• 7:46
  wars
• 7:46
  because
• 7:47
  wars,
• 7:48
  if
• 7:48
  you
• 7:48
  go
• 7:49
  off
• 7:49
  his
• 7:49
  voting
• 7:49
  track
• 7:50
  record
• 7:50
  and
• 7:51
  his
• 7:51
  vocalization
• 7:52
  of
• 7:52
  policy,
• 7:53
  he
• 7:53
  seems
• 7:54
  to
• 7:54
  be
• 7:54
  antithesis
• 7:54
  of
• 7:55
  what
• 7:55
  Donald
• 7:55
  Trump
• 7:55
  wants
• 7:56
  of
• 7:56
  cutting
• 7:56
  rates.
• 7:57
  Now,
• 7:57
  obviously
• 7:58
  to
• 7:58
  get
• 7:58
  the
• 7:58
  job,
• 7:59
  you
• 7:59
  had
• 7:59
  to
• 7:59
  at
• 7:59
  least
• 7:59
  tell
• 7:59
  him
• 7:59
  that
• 8:00
  at
• 8:00
  one
• 8:00
  point.
• 8:00
  So
• 8:01
  I'm
• 8:01
  sure
• 8:01
  that
• 8:01
  happened
• 8:02
  somewhere.
• 8:03
  But
• 8:03
  you
• 8:03
  know,
• 8:03
  he,
• 8:04
  he's,
• 8:04
  he's
• 8:04
  historically
• 8:05
  been
• 8:05
  a
• 8:05
  bit
• 8:05
  of
• 8:05
  an
• 8:06
  inflation
• 8:06
  hawk,
• 8:07
  meaning
• 8:07
  that
• 8:07
  he
• 8:08
  has
• 8:08
  a
• 8:08
  higher
• 8:08
  keener
• 8:09
  eye
• 8:09
  on,
• 8:09
  on
• 8:09
  inflation,
• 8:10
  but
• 8:10
  also
• 8:11
  he's
• 8:11
  a
• 8:11
  balance
• 8:12
  sheet
• 8:12
  hawk.
• 8:12
  He
• 8:12
  hates
• 8:13
  the
• 8:13
  size
• 8:13
  of
• 8:13
  the
• 8:13
  Fed's
• 8:13
  balance
• 8:14
  sheet.
• 8:15
  And
• 8:15
  if
• 8:15
  his
• 8:15
  objective
• 8:16
  is
• 8:16
  to
• 8:17
  reduce
• 8:17
  the
• 8:17
  size
• 8:17
  of
• 8:17
  the
• 8:17
  balance
• 8:18
  sheet,
• 8:19
  that's
• 8:19
  not
• 8:20
  helping
• 8:20
  monetary
• 8:21
  pay.
• 8:21
  That's
• 8:21
  a
• 8:21
  tightening
• 8:22
  of
• 8:22
  policy.
• 8:22
  Mm-hmm.
• 8:23
  And
• 8:23
  so
• 8:23
  someone
• 8:23
  has
• 8:24
  to
• 8:24
  buy
• 8:24
  those
• 8:24
  treasuries
• 8:25
  is
• 8:25
  the
• 8:25
  point.
• 8:25
  So.
• 8:26
  I
• 8:26
  think
• 8:26
  that
• 8:27
  it's
• 8:27
  an
• 8:27
  interesting
• 8:28
  pick
• 8:28
  from
• 8:28
  the
• 8:28
  standpoint
• 8:29
  that
• 8:29
  I
• 8:29
  think
• 8:30
  he's
• 8:30
  qualified
• 8:30
  for.
• 8:31
  Sure.
• 8:31
  Uh,
• 8:32
  I,
• 8:32
  I
• 8:32
  think
• 8:32
  he's
• 8:32
  a
• 8:32
  good
• 8:32
  pick,
• 8:33
  but
• 8:34
  we'll
• 8:34
  have
• 8:34
  to
• 8:34
  see
• 8:35
  how,
• 8:35
  how
• 8:36
  he
• 8:36
  behaves.
• 8:36
  And
• 8:36
  I
• 8:36
  say
• 8:37
  that
• 8:37
  because
• 8:38
  when
• 8:38
  you
• 8:38
  get
• 8:39
  into
• 8:39
  like
• 8:39
  the
• 8:39
  Trump
• 8:39
  orbit,
• 8:40
  you
• 8:40
  just,
• 8:40
  you
• 8:40
  can't
• 8:41
  extrapolate
• 8:41
  how
• 8:42
  people
• 8:42
  have
• 8:42
  behaved
• 8:42
  in
• 8:42
  the
• 8:42
  past.
• 8:43
  Yeah.
• 8:43
  He
• 8:43
  tends
• 8:44
  to
• 8:44
  have
• 8:44
  this,
• 8:44
  this
• 8:44
  power
• 8:45
  over
• 8:45
  people.
• 8:46
  So
• 8:46
  I
• 8:46
  think
• 8:47
  it'll
• 8:47
  be
• 8:47
  interesting
• 8:47
  to
• 8:48
  watch
• 8:48
  his
• 8:48
  first
• 8:48
  press
• 8:49
  conference.
• 8:50
  I'm
• 8:50
  gonna
• 8:50
  go
• 8:50
  out
• 8:50
  on
• 8:50
  a
• 8:50
  limb
• 8:50
  here
• 8:51
  and
• 8:51
  say
• 8:51
  it's
• 8:51
  not
• 8:51
  gonna
• 8:51
  go
• 8:51
  well.
• 8:52
  It's
• 8:52
  not
• 8:52
  gonna
• 8:52
  go
• 8:52
  well.
• 8:53
  'cause
• 8:53
  the
• 8:53
  reporters
• 8:53
  are
• 8:54
  armed
• 8:54
  to
• 8:54
  the
• 8:54
  teeth
• 8:54
  and
• 8:54
  he's
• 8:55
  not
• 8:55
  used
• 8:55
  to
• 8:55
  that
• 8:55
  forum
• 8:56
  yet.
• 8:56
  Yeah.
• 8:56
  He'll
• 8:56
  get
• 8:57
  he'll,
• 8:57
  he'll,
• 8:57
  he'll
• 8:57
  get
• 8:57
  into
• 8:58
  the
• 8:58
  job.
• 8:58
  But
• 8:59
  he's
• 8:59
  only
• 8:59
  one
• 8:59
  person.
• 9:00
  And
• 9:00
  I,
• 9:00
  I,
• 9:00
  that's
• 9:00
  what
• 9:00
  I
• 9:00
  want
• 9:01
  to
• 9:01
  come
• 9:01
  back
• 9:01
  to
• 9:01
  is
• 9:01
  that
• 9:02
  so
• 9:02
  much
• 9:02
  is
• 9:02
  made
• 9:03
  of
• 9:03
  the
• 9:03
  Fed
• 9:03
  chairperson
• 9:04
  because
• 9:05
  we've
• 9:05
  kind
• 9:05
  of
• 9:05
  made
• 9:06
  them
• 9:06
  these
• 9:06
  mythical
• 9:07
  creatures,
• 9:07
  you
• 9:07
  know,
• 9:08
  starting
• 9:08
  a
• 9:08
  Greenspan,
• 9:09
  who's
• 9:09
  called
• 9:09
  the
• 9:09
  Maestro,
• 9:10
  right?
• 9:10
  Uh,
• 9:10
  everyone
• 9:11
  subsequent
• 9:12
  to
• 9:12
  Volker
• 9:12
  has
• 9:13
  been
• 9:13
  in
• 9:13
  this
• 9:14
  kind
• 9:14
  of
• 9:14
  world
• 9:14
  of.
• 9:15
  Really
• 9:15
  getting
• 9:16
  the,
• 9:16
  the
• 9:17
  consensus,
• 9:17
  right.
• 9:17
  He's
• 9:18
  a,
• 9:18
  the,
• 9:18
  the
• 9:18
  chairperson
• 9:19
  is
• 9:19
  a
• 9:19
  consensus
• 9:20
  builder,
• 9:20
  and
• 9:22
  what
• 9:22
  you
• 9:22
  have
• 9:22
  inside
• 9:22
  the
• 9:23
  Fed
• 9:23
  today
• 9:24
  is
• 9:24
  a
• 9:24
  lot
• 9:24
  of
• 9:24
  divisive
• 9:25
  opinion.
• 9:25
  Mm-hmm.
• 9:26
  I
• 9:26
  would
• 9:26
  say
• 9:26
  there's
• 9:26
  probably
• 9:27
  more
• 9:27
  hawkish
• 9:28
  behavior
• 9:28
  than
• 9:28
  there's
• 9:29
  more
• 9:29
  dovish
• 9:29
  behavior.
• 9:30
  You
• 9:30
  know,
• 9:30
  you
• 9:30
  have
• 9:31
  your
• 9:31
  Miron
• 9:31
  on
• 9:31
  one
• 9:31
  side
• 9:32
  and
• 9:32
  you
• 9:32
  know
• 9:32
  you're
• 9:32
  gonna
• 9:33
  have
• 9:33
  GULs
• 9:33
  be
• 9:33
  on
• 9:33
  the
• 9:33
  other
• 9:33
  side.
• 9:34
  You're
• 9:34
  always
• 9:34
  gonna
• 9:34
  have
• 9:34
  this
• 9:35
  kind
• 9:35
  of
• 9:35
  pool.
• 9:36
  But
• 9:36
  the
• 9:36
  thing
• 9:36
  is,
• 9:36
  is
• 9:37
  that.
• 9:38
  Even
• 9:38
  warsh
• 9:38
  himself
• 9:39
  can't
• 9:40
  flip
• 9:40
  the
• 9:40
  vote
• 9:40
  right
• 9:40
  now.
• 9:41
  And
• 9:41
  so
• 9:42
  to
• 9:42
  me,
• 9:42
  that's
• 9:43
  what
• 9:43
  I
• 9:43
  think
• 9:43
  the
• 9:43
  market's
• 9:43
  gonna
• 9:44
  watch.
• 9:44
  And
• 9:44
  I
• 9:44
  think
• 9:45
  with
• 9:45
  this
• 9:45
  announcement,
• 9:46
  you
• 9:46
  see
• 9:46
  it
• 9:46
  out
• 9:46
  there.
• 9:46
  The
• 9:46
  markets
• 9:47
  have
• 9:47
  been
• 9:47
  well-behaved.
• 9:48
  It's
• 9:48
  not
• 9:48
  a
• 9:48
  bad
• 9:48
  pick,
• 9:49
  it's
• 9:49
  just
• 9:50
  we
• 9:50
  don't
• 9:50
  know
• 9:50
  what
• 9:50
  it'll
• 9:51
  be.
• 9:51
  And
• 9:51
  remember
• 9:52
  we
• 9:52
  got
• 9:52
  him
• 9:52
  for
• 9:52
  a
• 9:53
  long
• 9:53
  time
• 9:53
  now
• 9:53
  Once,
• 9:53
  once
• 9:54
  he
• 9:54
  gets
• 9:54
  confirmed,
• 9:54
  right?
• 9:55
  Yeah.
• 9:55
  And
• 9:55
  so
• 9:55
  this
• 9:56
  isn't
• 9:56
  just
• 9:56
  a
• 9:56
  Trump
• 9:56
  thing,
• 9:57
  it's
• 9:57
  the
• 9:57
  next
• 9:57
  administration,
• 9:58
  the
• 9:58
  next
• 9:58
  as
• 9:58
  well.
• 9:58
  So
• 9:59
  I,
• 9:59
  I
• 9:59
  think
• 9:59
  it's
• 10:00
  a
• 10:00
  good
• 10:00
  pick.
• 10:00
  I
• 10:00
  just
• 10:01
  don't
• 10:01
  know
• 10:01
  what
• 10:01
  to,
• 10:02
  what
• 10:02
  to
• 10:02
  make
• 10:02
  of
• 10:02
  it,
• 10:02
  because.
• 10:03
  Of
• 10:03
  the
• 10:04
  uncertainty
• 10:04
  around,
• 10:05
  I
• 10:05
  know
• 10:05
  know
• 10:05
  the
• 10:06
  one
• 10:06
  criterion
• 10:07
  for
• 10:07
  the
• 10:07
  job
• 10:07
  was
• 10:07
  you
• 10:07
  have
• 10:08
  to
• 10:08
  lower
• 10:08
  interest
• 10:08
  rates.
• 10:09
  Yeah.
• 10:09
  But
• 10:09
  it
• 10:09
  flies
• 10:10
  right
• 10:10
  in
• 10:10
  the
• 10:10
  face
• 10:10
  of
• 10:11
  unwinding
• 10:11
  the
• 10:11
  balance
• 10:11
  sheet.
• 10:12
  Right.
• 10:12
  But
• 10:13
  you
• 10:13
  could
• 10:13
  also
• 10:13
  argue
• 10:14
  that
• 10:14
  maybe
• 10:14
  you
• 10:14
  do
• 10:14
  both
• 10:15
  and
• 10:15
  then
• 10:15
  we
• 10:16
  have
• 10:16
  a
• 10:16
  neutralist
• 10:16
  policy
• 10:17
  because
• 10:18
  of
• 10:18
  it.
• 10:19
  But
• 10:19
  then
• 10:19
  why
• 10:19
  are
• 10:19
  you
• 10:19
  doing
• 10:19
  it?
• 10:20
  You
• 10:20
  know?
• 10:20
  I
• 10:20
  don't
• 10:20
  know.
• 10:20
  Mm-hmm.
• 10:21
  So,
• 10:21
  um,
• 10:21
  I,
• 10:21
  I,
• 10:22
  my,
• 10:22
  my,
• 10:22
  my,
• 10:23
  my
• 10:23
  verdict
• 10:24
  is,
• 10:24
  is
• 10:24
  yet
• 10:24
  to
• 10:24
  be
• 10:24
  rendered.
• 10:25
  And
• 10:25
  I'll
• 10:25
  watch
• 10:26
  him,
• 10:26
  uh,
• 10:26
  on
• 10:26
  the
• 10:26
  job.
• 10:27
  Yeah,
• 10:27
  no,
• 10:28
  that's
• 10:28
  a
• 10:28
  great
• 10:28
  point,
• 10:29
  Jeffrey.
• 10:29
  And
• 10:30
  for,
• 10:30
  you
• 10:30
  know,
• 10:30
  it
• 10:31
  obviously
• 10:31
  made
• 10:32
  headlines
• 10:33
  that
• 10:33
  week
• 10:33
  that
• 10:33
  it
• 10:34
  was
• 10:34
  announced,
• 10:34
  but
• 10:35
  I
• 10:35
  feel
• 10:35
  as
• 10:35
  if
• 10:36
  maybe
• 10:36
  it
• 10:36
  just
• 10:36
  hasn't
• 10:37
  been
• 10:37
  talked
• 10:37
  a
• 10:37
  lot
• 10:38
  about,
• 10:38
  you
• 10:38
  know,
• 10:38
  there's
• 10:39
  a
• 10:39
  lot
• 10:39
  else
• 10:39
  to
• 10:39
  talk
• 10:40
  about
• 10:40
  right
• 10:40
  now,
• 10:41
  but
• 10:42
  it,
• 10:42
  it's
• 10:43
  maybe
• 10:43
  more
• 10:44
  should
• 10:44
  be
• 10:44
  considered
• 10:45
  in
• 10:45
  it
• 10:45
  or,
• 10:46
  yeah,
• 10:46
  I,
• 10:46
  I
• 10:46
  think
• 10:46
  what's
• 10:47
  the,
• 10:47
  the,
• 10:47
  the
• 10:48
  worst,
• 10:48
  or,
• 10:48
  or
• 10:48
  the
• 10:49
  thing
• 10:49
  that
• 10:49
  gives
• 10:49
  me
• 10:49
  the
• 10:49
  most
• 10:49
  concern
• 10:50
  about
• 10:50
  it
• 10:51
  is
• 10:51
  the.
• 10:52
  What
• 10:53
  Kevin
• 10:53
  War
• 10:53
  said
• 10:54
  about
• 10:54
  wanting
• 10:54
  to
• 10:54
  work
• 10:55
  more
• 10:55
  closely
• 10:55
  with
• 10:56
  treasury,
• 10:57
  and
• 10:58
  that
• 10:58
  reeks
• 10:59
  of
• 10:59
  a
• 10:59
  little
• 10:59
  bit
• 10:59
  of,
• 11:00
  of
• 11:00
  softening
• 11:01
  the
• 11:01
  independence
• 11:02
  there.
• 11:02
  Right.
• 11:03
  And
• 11:03
  I
• 11:03
  understand
• 11:04
  you
• 11:04
  have
• 11:04
  to
• 11:04
  work
• 11:04
  with
• 11:04
  them.
• 11:05
  They're
• 11:05
  issuing
• 11:05
  the
• 11:05
  treasury,
• 11:06
  you
• 11:06
  gotta
• 11:06
  figure
• 11:06
  stuff
• 11:06
  out.
• 11:07
  You
• 11:07
  gotta
• 11:07
  get
• 11:07
  your
• 11:08
  liability
• 11:08
  management
• 11:08
  exercise
• 11:09
  under,
• 11:09
  under
• 11:09
  control.
• 11:10
  But
• 11:11
  are
• 11:12
  we
• 11:12
  gonna
• 11:12
  lower
• 11:12
  interest
• 11:12
  rates
• 11:13
  because
• 11:13
  we're
• 11:13
  spending
• 11:13
  so
• 11:14
  much
• 11:14
  money?
• 11:15
  Is
• 11:15
  that
• 11:15
  the
• 11:15
  Fed's
• 11:15
  job?
• 11:16
  Mm-hmm.
• 11:16
  It's
• 11:16
  really
• 11:16
  not.
• 11:17
  You
• 11:17
  know,
• 11:17
  the,
• 11:18
  the
• 11:18
  Fed's
• 11:18
  job
• 11:18
  is
• 11:18
  to
• 11:19
  the,
• 11:19
  the,
• 11:19
  the
• 11:19
  dual
• 11:19
  mandate
• 11:20
  we
• 11:20
  just
• 11:20
  talked
• 11:20
  about.
• 11:21
  So
• 11:21
  when
• 11:22
  I
• 11:22
  come
• 11:22
  back
• 11:22
  and
• 11:22
  look
• 11:22
  at
• 11:22
  that,
• 11:23
  you
• 11:23
  know,
• 11:23
  we've
• 11:23
  been
• 11:23
  talking
• 11:24
  about
• 11:24
  fed
• 11:24
  independence
• 11:25
  as
• 11:25
  at
• 11:25
  risk.
• 11:26
  That's
• 11:26
  the
• 11:26
  one
• 11:26
  thing
• 11:27
  I
• 11:27
  don't
• 11:27
  think
• 11:27
  that's
• 11:27
  been
• 11:27
  picked
• 11:27
  up
• 11:28
  enough
• 11:28
  on
• 11:28
  yet.
• 11:29
  Um,
• 11:29
  and
• 11:29
  we'll
• 11:29
  see
• 11:30
  how
• 11:30
  it
• 11:30
  works.
• 11:30
  We'll,
• 11:30
  we'll
• 11:31
  just,
• 11:31
  we'll
• 11:31
  totally
• 11:31
  see
• 11:31
  how
• 11:31
  it
• 11:32
  works
• 11:32
  over
• 11:32
  time.
• 11:33
  But,
• 11:33
  you
• 11:34
  know,
• 11:34
  it's,
• 11:34
  it's
• 11:35
  a
• 11:35
  challenge
• 11:35
  because,
• 11:36
  look,
• 11:36
  we
• 11:36
  have
• 11:36
  $10
• 11:37
  trillion
• 11:37
  of
• 11:37
  treasuries
• 11:38
  have
• 11:38
  to
• 11:38
  be
• 11:38
  financed
• 11:38
  in
• 11:38
  the
• 11:38
  next
• 11:39
  year.
• 11:39
  Right.
• 11:39
  In
• 11:40
  the
• 11:40
  next
• 11:40
  year.
• 11:40
  That's
• 11:40
  what's
• 11:41
  rolling
• 11:41
  off
• 11:41
  of
• 11:41
  just
• 11:42
  treasury,
• 11:42
  maturation
• 11:43
  schedule,
• 11:44
  and
• 11:45
  it's
• 11:45
  gotta
• 11:45
  be
• 11:45
  financed
• 11:45
  somewhere.
• 11:46
  Yeah.
• 11:46
  Not
• 11:46
  to
• 11:46
  mention
• 11:47
  that
• 11:47
  if
• 11:47
  you
• 11:47
  look
• 11:48
  at,
• 11:48
  you
• 11:48
  know,
• 11:48
  the
• 11:48
  CBO
• 11:48
  estimates
• 11:49
  came
• 11:49
  out
• 11:49
  last
• 11:50
  week.
• 11:51
  It
• 11:51
  said
• 11:51
  the
• 11:51
  first
• 11:51
  five
• 11:51
  months
• 11:52
  we
• 11:52
  spent
• 11:53
  $1.05
• 11:53
  trillion.
• 11:55
  That's
• 11:55
  our
• 11:55
  deficit
• 11:56
  for
• 11:56
  the
• 11:56
  first
• 11:56
  five
• 11:56
  months
• 11:57
  of
• 11:57
  the
• 11:57
  year.
• 11:57
  And
• 11:58
  that
• 11:58
  has
• 11:58
  no
• 11:59
  war
• 12:00
  budget
• 12:00
  in
• 12:00
  it.
• 12:00
  Right.
• 12:01
  So
• 12:01
  I
• 12:01
  gotta
• 12:01
  think
• 12:01
  it's
• 12:02
  going
• 12:02
  up.
• 12:02
  Right.
• 12:03
  So
• 12:03
  we
• 12:04
  have
• 12:04
  a
• 12:04
  lot
• 12:04
  of
• 12:04
  challenges
• 12:04
  here
• 12:05
  too,
• 12:05
  and
• 12:06
  the
• 12:06
  Fed
• 12:06
  has
• 12:06
  to
• 12:07
  contend
• 12:07
  with
• 12:07
  this
• 12:07
  as
• 12:07
  well
• 12:08
  when
• 12:08
  they're
• 12:08
  thinking
• 12:08
  about
• 12:09
  it.
• 12:09
  If
• 12:09
  we're
• 12:09
  spending
• 12:10
  this
• 12:10
  money
• 12:10
  and
• 12:10
  we're
• 12:11
  providing
• 12:12
  so
• 12:12
  many
• 12:12
  treasuries,
• 12:13
  they
• 12:13
  also
• 12:13
  gotta
• 12:13
  find
• 12:14
  buyers.
• 12:15
  So.
• 12:15
  If
• 12:15
  they
• 12:16
  want
• 12:16
  to
• 12:16
  unwind
• 12:16
  the
• 12:16
  balance
• 12:16
  sheet,
• 12:17
  you
• 12:17
  need
• 12:17
  buyers,
• 12:18
  but
• 12:18
  we
• 12:18
  also
• 12:18
  just
• 12:18
  have
• 12:19
  this
• 12:19
  natural,
• 12:19
  we
• 12:19
  need
• 12:19
  an
• 12:20
  extra
• 12:20
  trillion
• 12:20
  every
• 12:21
  five
• 12:21
  months
• 12:21
  right
• 12:21
  now.
• 12:22
  So
• 12:22
  it,
• 12:22
  it's
• 12:22
  a,
• 12:23
  it's
• 12:23
  a
• 12:23
  tough
• 12:23
  situation,
• 12:24
  Ryan.
• 12:24
  I
• 12:24
  mean,
• 12:24
  when
• 12:24
  I,
• 12:25
  when
• 12:25
  I
• 12:25
  look
• 12:25
  at
• 12:25
  it,
• 12:26
  and
• 12:26
  so
• 12:27
  look,
• 12:27
  I,
• 12:27
  I
• 12:27
  think
• 12:27
  the,
• 12:27
  those
• 12:28
  that
• 12:28
  are
• 12:28
  at
• 12:28
  the
• 12:28
  Fed,
• 12:29
  they're
• 12:29
  gonna
• 12:29
  do
• 12:29
  the
• 12:29
  best
• 12:29
  they
• 12:29
  can.
• 12:30
  We
• 12:30
  give
• 12:30
  'em
• 12:30
  a
• 12:30
  lot
• 12:31
  of
• 12:31
  crap
• 12:31
  because,
• 12:32
  you
• 12:32
  know,
• 12:32
  it's,
• 12:32
  it's,
• 12:32
  our
• 12:32
  job
• 12:33
  is
• 12:33
  to
• 12:33
  criticize
• 12:34
  everybody
• 12:34
  else,
• 12:34
  right?
• 12:34
  Don't,
• 12:35
  don't
• 12:35
  criticize
• 12:35
  yourself,
• 12:35
  criticize
• 12:36
  everybody
• 12:36
  else.
• 12:37
  But
• 12:37
  I,
• 12:37
  I
• 12:37
  think
• 12:38
  that
• 12:38
  when
• 12:39
  it
• 12:39
  really
• 12:39
  comes
• 12:39
  back
• 12:39
  down
• 12:40
  to
• 12:40
  it,
• 12:40
  I
• 12:40
  think
• 12:40
  they're
• 12:40
  gonna
• 12:41
  do
• 12:41
  the
• 12:41
  right
• 12:41
  thing.
• 12:42
  And,
• 12:42
  you
• 12:42
  know,
• 12:43
  I,
• 12:43
  I
• 12:43
  don't
• 12:43
  think
• 12:43
  Kevin
• 12:44
  Walsh
• 12:44
  is
• 12:44
  being
• 12:45
  a,
• 12:45
  a
• 12:45
  political
• 12:46
  pawn
• 12:46
  in
• 12:46
  this
• 12:47
  right
• 12:47
  now.
• 12:47
  Um,
• 12:48
  but
• 12:48
  we'll
• 12:48
  see,
• 12:49
  you
• 12:49
  know,
• 12:49
  again,
• 12:49
  I,
• 12:49
  I
• 12:49
  reserve
• 12:50
  judgment
• 12:50
  until
• 12:51
  we
• 12:51
  get
• 12:51
  a
• 12:51
  couple
• 12:52
  meetings
• 12:52
  under
• 12:52
  our
• 12:52
  belt
• 12:52
  and
• 12:53
  we'll
• 12:53
  see
• 12:53
  how
• 12:53
  he
• 12:53
  leads
• 12:53
  the
• 12:54
  Fed,
• 12:54
  assuming
• 12:55
  confirmation.
• 12:55
  Yeah,
• 12:56
  no,
• 12:56
  that's
• 12:56
  great
• 12:57
  Jeffrey.
• 12:57
  A
• 12:57
  lot
• 12:57
  of
• 12:57
  times
• 12:58
  when
• 12:58
  I
• 12:58
  talk
• 12:58
  to
• 12:58
  my
• 12:59
  guests,
• 12:59
  I,
• 12:59
  I
• 12:59
  was
• 12:59
  like,
• 13:00
  I
• 13:00
  want
• 13:00
  the
• 13:01
  conversation
• 13:01
  to
• 13:01
  be
• 13:02
  very
• 13:02
  raw.
• 13:03
  A
• 13:03
  conversation
• 13:04
  like
• 13:04
  we're
• 13:04
  sitting
• 13:04
  at
• 13:04
  a
• 13:04
  pub,
• 13:05
  having
• 13:05
  a
• 13:05
  beer
• 13:06
  with
• 13:07
  the
• 13:07
  airplanes
• 13:07
  flying
• 13:08
  over.
• 13:08
  Yeah.
• 13:08
  It
• 13:09
  gives
• 13:09
  us
• 13:09
  that
• 13:09
  raw
• 13:10
  feeling
• 13:10
  of
• 13:10
  conversation.
• 13:11
  I
• 13:11
  love
• 13:11
  it.
• 13:11
  Well,
• 13:12
  in
• 13:12
  fairness,
• 13:12
  we
• 13:12
  only
• 13:12
  have
• 13:12
  water,
• 13:13
  so
• 13:13
  we
• 13:13
  need
• 13:13
  to
• 13:13
  bring
• 13:14
  the,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:15
  uh,
• 13:16
  maybe
• 13:16
  we
• 13:16
  ask
• 13:17
  exchange
• 13:18
  next
• 13:18
  year.
• 13:18
  Yeah.
• 13:19
  For,
• 13:19
  for
• 13:19
  some
• 13:20
  cocktails
• 13:20
  out
• 13:21
  here.
• 13:21
  Um,
• 13:22
  let's
• 13:23
  talk
• 13:23
  about
• 13:23
  yields
• 13:24
  real
• 13:24
  quickly.
• 13:26
  Before
• 13:26
  the
• 13:26
  conf,
• 13:27
  before
• 13:28
  the
• 13:28
  war
• 13:28
  started
• 13:29
  yield
• 13:29
  10
• 13:29
  year
• 13:29
  treasury
• 13:30
  yields
• 13:30
  fell
• 13:30
  below
• 13:31
  four.
• 13:32
  Wars
• 13:33
  started
• 13:33
  now
• 13:33
  they're,
• 13:34
  what
• 13:34
  are
• 13:34
  they?
• 13:34
  Four,
• 13:35
  400,
• 13:36
  almost
• 13:36
  four
• 13:36
  30
• 13:37
  basis
• 13:37
  points.
• 13:37
  I
• 13:37
  think
• 13:38
  I
• 13:38
  lost
• 13:38
  checked.
• 13:40
  Is
• 13:40
  that
• 13:40
  counterintuitive?
• 13:41
  What
• 13:41
  does
• 13:42
  that
• 13:42
  signate
• 13:42
  To
• 13:42
  me,
• 13:43
  I
• 13:43
  think
• 13:43
  a
• 13:43
  flight
• 13:44
  to
• 13:44
  safety
• 13:45
  yield
• 13:45
  should
• 13:46
  come
• 13:46
  down
• 13:46
  during
• 13:47
  this
• 13:47
  war,
• 13:48
  but
• 13:48
  that's
• 13:48
  not
• 13:49
  the
• 13:49
  case.
• 13:50
  I
• 13:50
  think
• 13:50
  it's
• 13:51
  the
• 13:51
  market
• 13:51
  is
• 13:51
  saying
• 13:52
  that
• 13:52
  there's
• 13:52
  this,
• 13:52
  there's
• 13:52
  gonna
• 13:52
  be
• 13:52
  short
• 13:53
  term
• 13:53
  inflationary
• 13:53
  pressure.
• 13:54
  Um,
• 13:55
  and
• 13:55
  you,
• 13:56
  you
• 13:56
  still
• 13:56
  don't,
• 13:56
  we
• 13:56
  don't
• 13:56
  know
• 13:57
  the
• 13:57
  length
• 13:57
  of
• 13:57
  this
• 13:57
  war
• 13:58
  either.
• 13:58
  And,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 13:59
  I
• 13:59
  think
• 13:59
  that's
• 13:59
  the,
• 14:00
  the
• 14:00
  bigger
• 14:00
  variable
• 14:01
  here
• 14:01
  is
• 14:01
  that
• 14:02
  do
• 14:02
  we
• 14:02
  have
• 14:03
  $90
• 14:03
  oil
• 14:04
  price,
• 14:04
  you
• 14:04
  know,
• 14:04
  for
• 14:05
  the
• 14:05
  next
• 14:05
  six
• 14:05
  months?
• 14:06
  You
• 14:06
  know,
• 14:06
  obviously
• 14:06
  it's
• 14:07
  bouncing
• 14:07
  around
• 14:07
  a
• 14:07
  lot
• 14:07
  right
• 14:08
  now,
• 14:08
  so
• 14:08
  there
• 14:08
  is
• 14:09
  no
• 14:09
  stability
• 14:09
  there.
• 14:10
  But
• 14:10
  that's
• 14:11
  essentially,
• 14:12
  that's
• 14:12
  how
• 14:12
  the
• 14:13
  market
• 14:13
  corrects
• 14:13
  itself.
• 14:14
  Um,
• 14:14
  the
• 14:15
  cure
• 14:15
  for
• 14:15
  high
• 14:15
  prices
• 14:16
  is
• 14:16
  high
• 14:16
  prices.
• 14:16
  You're
• 14:16
  trying
• 14:17
  to
• 14:17
  discourage
• 14:17
  demand
• 14:18
  right
• 14:18
  at
• 14:18
  the
• 14:18
  end
• 14:18
  of
• 14:18
  the
• 14:19
  day
• 14:19
  and
• 14:19
  consumption.
• 14:21
  I,
• 14:21
  I
• 14:21
  think
• 14:21
  what
• 14:21
  you're
• 14:21
  seeing
• 14:22
  in
• 14:22
  the,
• 14:22
  the
• 14:22
  rates
• 14:23
  market
• 14:23
  over
• 14:24
  the
• 14:24
  short
• 14:24
  term
• 14:24
  has
• 14:24
  been
• 14:25
  a
• 14:25
  repricing
• 14:26
  of
• 14:26
  the
• 14:26
  inflation
• 14:26
  premium.
• 14:27
  That's
• 14:27
  what
• 14:27
  it
• 14:27
  comes
• 14:28
  down
• 14:28
  to.
• 14:28
  Okay.
• 14:28
  And
• 14:29
  you'll
• 14:29
  say,
• 14:29
  well,
• 14:29
  it's
• 14:29
  only
• 14:29
  20
• 14:30
  basis
• 14:30
  points.
• 14:30
  Yeah.
• 14:31
  'cause
• 14:31
  it's,
• 14:31
  it's
• 14:31
  probably,
• 14:32
  we
• 14:32
  get
• 14:32
  inflation,
• 14:33
  maybe
• 14:33
  we
• 14:33
  get
• 14:33
  an
• 14:33
  extra
• 14:34
  one,
• 14:34
  one
• 14:34
  and
• 14:34
  a
• 14:35
  half
• 14:35
  percent
• 14:35
  inflation
• 14:36
  this
• 14:36
  year
• 14:36
  because
• 14:36
  of
• 14:36
  it.
• 14:37
  Again,
• 14:37
  no
• 14:37
  one
• 14:37
  really
• 14:38
  knows,
• 14:38
  'cause
• 14:38
  we
• 14:38
  don't
• 14:38
  know
• 14:38
  where
• 14:39
  the
• 14:39
  path
• 14:39
  of
• 14:39
  oil
• 14:39
  is
• 14:39
  going
• 14:40
  right
• 14:40
  now.
• 14:41
  But,
• 14:42
  you
• 14:42
  know,
• 14:42
  so
• 14:42
  when
• 14:42
  you
• 14:42
  start
• 14:43
  to
• 14:43
  price
• 14:43
  that
• 14:43
  through,
• 14:43
  it
• 14:43
  kind
• 14:44
  of
• 14:44
  makes
• 14:44
  some
• 14:44
  sense.
• 14:45
  By
• 14:45
  the
• 14:45
  way,
• 14:45
  you
• 14:46
  know,
• 14:46
  you're
• 14:46
  referencing
• 14:47
  a
• 14:47
  data
• 14:47
  point
• 14:47
  of
• 14:47
  saying
• 14:48
  right
• 14:48
  before
• 14:49
  the
• 14:49
  war.
• 14:49
  We
• 14:50
  were
• 14:50
  at
• 14:50
  the
• 14:50
  very
• 14:50
  low
• 14:50
  end
• 14:50
  of
• 14:50
  the
• 14:50
  range
• 14:51
  right
• 14:51
  then
• 14:51
  too.
• 14:52
  So
• 14:52
  I,
• 14:52
  I
• 14:53
  think
• 14:53
  when
• 14:53
  you,
• 14:54
  when
• 14:54
  you
• 14:54
  look
• 14:54
  back
• 14:55
  and
• 14:55
  you
• 14:55
  go
• 14:55
  back
• 14:55
  to,
• 14:56
  let's
• 14:56
  just
• 14:56
  say
• 14:56
  September
• 14:57
  of
• 14:57
  last
• 14:57
  year,
• 14:58
  the
• 14:58
  10
• 14:58
  year
• 14:58
  treasury's
• 14:59
  been
• 14:59
  in
• 14:59
  like
• 14:59
  a
• 14:59
  50
• 15:00
  basis
• 15:00
  point
• 15:00
  range,
• 15:01
  and
• 15:02
  the
• 15:02
  low
• 15:02
  end's
• 15:02
  been
• 15:02
  like
• 15:02
  three
• 15:03
  80
• 15:03
  ish.
• 15:03
  The
• 15:03
  high
• 15:04
  end's
• 15:04
  like
• 15:04
  four
• 15:04
  30.
• 15:05
  That's
• 15:05
  where
• 15:05
  we've
• 15:06
  been.
• 15:06
  And
• 15:07
  so
• 15:07
  where
• 15:07
  are
• 15:07
  you
• 15:07
  today?
• 15:08
  You're
• 15:08
  kind
• 15:08
  of
• 15:08
  at
• 15:08
  the
• 15:09
  higher
• 15:09
  end
• 15:09
  of
• 15:09
  the
• 15:09
  range.
• 15:09
  So
• 15:10
  I
• 15:10
  don't
• 15:10
  think
• 15:10
  it's
• 15:11
  uncanny
• 15:11
  to
• 15:12
  see
• 15:12
  rates
• 15:12
  go
• 15:12
  up
• 15:13
  a
• 15:13
  little
• 15:13
  bit
• 15:13
  because
• 15:13
  of
• 15:13
  this.
• 15:14
  And
• 15:14
  then,
• 15:15
  you
• 15:15
  know,
• 15:15
  probably
• 15:15
  you're
• 15:16
  talking
• 15:16
  about
• 15:16
  financing
• 15:17
  the
• 15:17
  war,
• 15:18
  right?
• 15:18
  It's
• 15:18
  expensive.
• 15:19
  So
• 15:20
  that's
• 15:20
  probably
• 15:20
  part
• 15:21
  of
• 15:21
  it
• 15:21
  too.
• 15:21
  That
• 15:21
  means
• 15:21
  there's
• 15:21
  more
• 15:22
  interest,
• 15:22
  there's
• 15:22
  more
• 15:23
  treasuries,
• 15:24
  and
• 15:24
  so
• 15:24
  I
• 15:24
  think
• 15:24
  some
• 15:25
  of
• 15:25
  that's
• 15:25
  there.
• 15:25
  So
• 15:26
  the
• 15:26
  flight
• 15:26
  to
• 15:26
  quality
• 15:27
  trade,
• 15:27
  you've
• 15:27
  seen
• 15:28
  it,
• 15:28
  you've
• 15:28
  seen
• 15:28
  it
• 15:28
  go
• 15:29
  into
• 15:29
  like
• 15:29
  Swiss
• 15:29
  Franc,
• 15:30
  you've
• 15:30
  seen
• 15:30
  a
• 15:30
  little
• 15:30
  bit
• 15:31
  in
• 15:31
  Japanese
• 15:31
  yen,
• 15:32
  but
• 15:32
  you
• 15:32
  haven't
• 15:32
  a
• 15:32
  lot
• 15:33
  because
• 15:33
  of
• 15:33
  the
• 15:33
  pain
• 15:33
  that
• 15:34
  you've
• 15:34
  seen
• 15:34
  in
• 15:34
  Japan
• 15:34
  this
• 15:34
  year.
• 15:35
  So
• 15:35
  I,
• 15:36
  I
• 15:36
  think
• 15:36
  the,
• 15:36
  the
• 15:37
  traditional
• 15:37
  havens
• 15:38
  have
• 15:38
  worked.
• 15:38
  Okay.
• 15:39
  But
• 15:40
  the
• 15:40
  question
• 15:40
  is,
• 15:40
  are
• 15:41
  treasury
• 15:41
  still
• 15:42
  a
• 15:42
  safe
• 15:42
  haven
• 15:42
  asset?
• 15:43
  And
• 15:43
  I
• 15:44
  still
• 15:44
  say
• 15:44
  it
• 15:44
  depends.
• 15:45
  Right.
• 15:45
  And
• 15:46
  if,
• 15:46
  if
• 15:47
  we're
• 15:47
  just
• 15:47
  doing
• 15:47
  a,
• 15:48
  a,
• 15:48
  you
• 15:48
  know,
• 15:48
  an
• 15:49
  un
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:50
  I
• 15:51
  don't
• 15:51
  know,
• 15:52
  probably
• 15:52
  the
• 15:52
  best
• 15:52
  way
• 15:52
  to
• 15:52
  say,
• 15:52
  if,
• 15:53
  if
• 15:53
  we're
• 15:53
  just
• 15:53
  gonna
• 15:54
  go
• 15:54
  out
• 15:54
  and
• 15:54
  spend
• 15:54
  money
• 15:54
  and
• 15:54
  get
• 15:55
  nothing
• 15:55
  out
• 15:55
  of
• 15:55
  it,
• 15:56
  then
• 15:56
  yield
• 15:56
  should
• 15:56
  be
• 15:57
  higher,
• 15:57
  right?
• 15:57
  It's
• 15:58
  not
• 15:58
  a
• 15:58
  productive,
• 15:59
  societal,
• 16:00
  productive
• 16:01
  kind
• 16:01
  of,
• 16:01
  um,
• 16:01
  kicker
• 16:02
  to
• 16:02
  GDP.
• 16:02
  So
• 16:03
  anyway,
• 16:03
  I
• 16:03
  think
• 16:03
  that's
• 16:04
  what
• 16:04
  the
• 16:04
  market's
• 16:04
  pricing
• 16:05
  and
• 16:05
  you've
• 16:06
  definitely
• 16:06
  pulled
• 16:06
  a
• 16:06
  rate
• 16:06
  cut
• 16:07
  out
• 16:07
  of,
• 16:07
  out
• 16:07
  of
• 16:07
  the
• 16:07
  market,
• 16:08
  uh,
• 16:08
  this
• 16:08
  year.
• 16:09
  In
• 16:09
  fact,
• 16:09
  last
• 16:09
  week
• 16:10
  we
• 16:10
  got
• 16:10
  down
• 16:10
  to
• 16:10
  where
• 16:10
  there
• 16:11
  was
• 16:11
  only,
• 16:11
  it
• 16:11
  was
• 16:11
  under
• 16:12
  one
• 16:12
  cut
• 16:12
  for
• 16:12
  the
• 16:13
  year
• 16:13
  and.
• 16:14
  It
• 16:15
  kind
• 16:15
  of
• 16:15
  feels
• 16:15
  right,
• 16:15
  and
• 16:16
  I,
• 16:16
  I
• 16:16
  don't
• 16:16
  think
• 16:16
  that
• 16:16
  the
• 16:16
  Fed
• 16:17
  should
• 16:17
  hike
• 16:17
  because
• 16:18
  there's
• 16:18
  inflation.
• 16:18
  This
• 16:19
  is
• 16:19
  why
• 16:19
  they
• 16:19
  strip
• 16:19
  out
• 16:20
  commodity
• 16:20
  prices.
• 16:21
  But
• 16:21
  I
• 16:21
  do
• 16:21
  think
• 16:22
  that
• 16:22
  the,
• 16:23
  the
• 16:23
  threshold
• 16:23
  for
• 16:24
  cutting
• 16:24
  got
• 16:24
  higher,
• 16:25
  right?
• 16:25
  Mm-hmm.
• 16:26
  And
• 16:26
  I
• 16:26
  think
• 16:26
  that's
• 16:26
  what
• 16:26
  the
• 16:26
  market's
• 16:27
  realizing.
• 16:28
  Don't
• 16:28
  forget,
• 16:28
  Ryan,
• 16:28
  we
• 16:29
  talked
• 16:29
  about
• 16:29
  this
• 16:29
  a
• 16:29
  year
• 16:29
  ago.
• 16:30
  The,
• 16:30
  the
• 16:30
  bond
• 16:31
  market's
• 16:31
  been
• 16:31
  a
• 16:31
  bully
• 16:32
  to
• 16:32
  the
• 16:32
  Fed
• 16:32
  for
• 16:32
  the
• 16:33
  last
• 16:33
  three
• 16:33
  and
• 16:33
  a
• 16:33
  half
• 16:33
  years.
• 16:34
  Since,
• 16:34
  since,
• 16:35
  since
• 16:35
  j
• 16:35
  Powell
• 16:36
  said
• 16:36
  we
• 16:36
  are
• 16:36
  done
• 16:36
  hiking
• 16:37
  rates
• 16:37
  back
• 16:37
  in
• 16:37
  September
• 16:38
  of
• 16:38
  22.
• 16:39
  The
• 16:39
  bond
• 16:39
  markets
• 16:40
  try
• 16:40
  to
• 16:40
  price
• 16:40
  cuts
• 16:40
  in
• 16:41
  every
• 16:41
  single
• 16:41
  day
• 16:41
  since
• 16:42
  then,
• 16:42
  and
• 16:43
  it's
• 16:43
  been
• 16:43
  wrong.
• 16:44
  So
• 16:45
  it's,
• 16:45
  it's
• 16:45
  materialized.
• 16:46
  Like,
• 16:46
  Hey,
• 16:46
  we
• 16:47
  got
• 16:47
  three
• 16:47
  cuts
• 16:47
  last
• 16:47
  year.
• 16:48
  We
• 16:48
  got
• 16:48
  'em
• 16:48
  by
• 16:49
  the
• 16:49
  skin
• 16:49
  of
• 16:49
  our
• 16:49
  teeth
• 16:50
  effectively.
• 16:51
  Um,
• 16:51
  and
• 16:51
  I
• 16:51
  think
• 16:51
  that's
• 16:52
  where
• 16:52
  we
• 16:52
  are
• 16:52
  this
• 16:52
  year
• 16:52
  as
• 16:53
  well.
• 16:53
  I
• 16:53
  think
• 16:53
  you
• 16:53
  still
• 16:53
  have
• 16:54
  enough
• 16:54
  positive
• 16:54
  momentum
• 16:55
  in
• 16:55
  the
• 16:55
  economy.
• 16:55
  It
• 16:55
  doesn't
• 16:55
  make
• 16:55
  sense
• 16:56
  to
• 16:56
  be
• 16:56
  cutting
• 16:56
  rates.
• 16:57
  And
• 16:57
  then
• 16:58
  we'll
• 16:58
  see
• 16:58
  how
• 16:58
  things
• 16:59
  evolve
• 16:59
  as
• 16:59
  the
• 16:59
  year
• 17:00
  goes
• 17:00
  on.
• 17:01
  And
• 17:01
  look,
• 17:01
  the
• 17:01
  war
• 17:02
  is
• 17:02
  a,
• 17:02
  is
• 17:03
  a
• 17:03
  really
• 17:03
  negative
• 17:03
  draw
• 17:04
  on
• 17:04
  people
• 17:04
  right
• 17:04
  now.
• 17:05
  Like
• 17:05
  it's,
• 17:06
  it
• 17:06
  hurts
• 17:06
  disposable
• 17:06
  income,
• 17:07
  it's
• 17:07
  gonna
• 17:07
  hurt
• 17:07
  some
• 17:08
  of
• 17:08
  the
• 17:08
  growth
• 17:08
  story.
• 17:09
  But,
• 17:09
  you
• 17:10
  know,
• 17:10
  um,
• 17:10
  we
• 17:10
  just,
• 17:11
  markets
• 17:12
  have
• 17:12
  a
• 17:12
  way
• 17:12
  of
• 17:12
  pricing
• 17:13
  pricing
• 17:13
  what
• 17:13
  it
• 17:13
  has
• 17:13
  to
• 17:14
  be,
• 17:14
  and
• 17:14
  we'll
• 17:15
  get,
• 17:15
  we'll
• 17:15
  get
• 17:15
  through
• 17:15
  it
• 17:15
  all,
• 17:16
  but
• 17:16
  I
• 17:16
  think
• 17:16
  yields
• 17:16
  make
• 17:17
  sense
• 17:17
  here.
• 17:18
  Um,
• 17:18
  and
• 17:18
  I
• 17:18
  think
• 17:18
  you'll,
• 17:19
  you'll
• 17:19
  find
• 17:19
  buyers,
• 17:20
  if,
• 17:20
  if
• 17:20
  they
• 17:20
  went
• 17:20
  up
• 17:20
  another
• 17:21
  30,
• 17:21
  50
• 17:21
  basis
• 17:22
  points,
• 17:22
  I
• 17:22
  think
• 17:22
  you'd
• 17:22
  find
• 17:23
  significant
• 17:23
  buyers.
• 17:24
  Because
• 17:24
  I
• 17:24
  think
• 17:25
  we
• 17:25
  all
• 17:25
  look
• 17:25
  through
• 17:25
  the
• 17:25
  inflation
• 17:26
  thing.
• 17:26
  It's
• 17:26
  somewhat,
• 17:27
  dare
• 17:27
  I
• 17:27
  say
• 17:27
  the
• 17:28
  word
• 17:28
  transitory,
• 17:29
  you
• 17:29
  know?
• 17:29
  Um,
• 17:30
  but
• 17:30
  it
• 17:30
  may
• 17:30
  be
• 17:30
  transitory
• 17:31
  from
• 17:31
  a,
• 17:31
  I
• 17:31
  think
• 17:32
  there's
• 17:32
  a
• 17:32
  drinking
• 17:32
  game
• 17:33
  for
• 17:33
  that,
• 17:33
  for
• 17:34
  that,
• 17:34
  for
• 17:34
  transitory.
• 17:35
  Yeah.
• 17:35
  Yeah.
• 17:35
  It's,
• 17:35
  it's
• 17:35
  not
• 17:36
  as
• 17:36
  fun
• 17:36
  with
• 17:36
  water,
• 17:37
  but.
• 17:38
  The
• 17:38
  thing
• 17:38
  is,
• 17:38
  is
• 17:38
  that
• 17:39
  I,
• 17:39
  I
• 17:39
  do
• 17:39
  think
• 17:40
  that
• 17:40
  we
• 17:40
  may
• 17:41
  be
• 17:41
  mired
• 17:41
  in
• 17:41
  these
• 17:41
  prices
• 17:42
  higher
• 17:42
  than
• 17:42
  the
• 17:42
  market's
• 17:43
  pricing
• 17:43
  right
• 17:43
  now.
• 17:43
  And
• 17:44
  why
• 17:44
  I
• 17:44
  say
• 17:44
  that
• 17:44
  is
• 17:45
  that
• 17:45
  there's
• 17:46
  been
• 17:46
  a
• 17:46
  lot
• 17:46
  of
• 17:46
  disruption
• 17:47
  in
• 17:47
  supply
• 17:47
  of
• 17:47
  oil
• 17:48
  right
• 17:48
  now.
• 17:48
  This
• 17:48
  is
• 17:48
  not
• 17:49
  a,
• 17:49
  Hey,
• 17:50
  the
• 17:50
  conflict's
• 17:50
  over
• 17:50
  tomorrow,
• 17:51
  everybody
• 17:52
  goes
• 17:52
  back
• 17:52
  to
• 17:52
  business
• 17:53
  as
• 17:53
  usual.
• 17:53
  There's
• 17:53
  a
• 17:53
  lot
• 17:54
  of
• 17:54
  infrastructural
• 17:54
  damage
• 17:55
  and
• 17:56
  there's
• 17:56
  a
• 17:56
  lot
• 17:56
  that
• 17:56
  has
• 17:56
  to,
• 17:57
  to
• 17:57
  recover
• 17:57
  through
• 17:58
  there.
• 17:58
  So,
• 17:58
  and
• 17:58
  by
• 17:58
  the
• 17:58
  way,
• 17:59
  it's
• 17:59
  not
• 17:59
  over
• 17:59
  yet.
• 18:00
  So
• 18:00
  that's,
• 18:01
  that's
• 18:01
  the
• 18:01
  thing.
• 18:01
  And
• 18:01
  I
• 18:01
  think
• 18:02
  the
• 18:02
  market
• 18:02
  has
• 18:02
  become
• 18:03
  a
• 18:03
  little
• 18:03
  complacent
• 18:04
  because
• 18:04
  a
• 18:05
  lot
• 18:05
  of
• 18:05
  these
• 18:05
  things
• 18:05
  that
• 18:06
  Trump
• 18:06
  backs
• 18:06
  off.
• 18:07
  But
• 18:08
  it
• 18:08
  just
• 18:08
  sure
• 18:08
  doesn't
• 18:08
  feel
• 18:08
  like
• 18:09
  the
• 18:09
  US
• 18:09
  is
• 18:09
  backing
• 18:10
  off
• 18:10
  anytime
• 18:10
  soon.
• 18:10
  Yeah.
• 18:11
  No,
• 18:11
  that
• 18:11
  makes
• 18:11
  sense.
• 18:12
  Jeffrey,
• 18:12
  going
• 18:13
  back
• 18:13
  to
• 18:13
  what
• 18:13
  our
• 18:13
  conversation
• 18:14
  we
• 18:14
  had
• 18:14
  last
• 18:15
  year,
• 18:16
  I
• 18:16
  did
• 18:16
  pay
• 18:16
  attention.
• 18:17
  I've
• 18:17
  got
• 18:17
  notes
• 18:17
  here
• 18:17
  about
• 18:18
  what
• 18:18
  you
• 18:18
  talked
• 18:18
  about
• 18:18
  last
• 18:19
  year,
• 18:19
  so
• 18:19
  I'm
• 18:19
  holding
• 18:20
  you
• 18:20
  to,
• 18:20
  how
• 18:20
  long
• 18:20
  was
• 18:20
  I,
• 18:21
  what
• 18:21
  year?
• 18:21
  How
• 18:21
  long
• 18:21
  was
• 18:21
  I
• 18:21
  about
• 18:21
  everything?
• 18:22
  You,
• 18:22
  you
• 18:22
  were
• 18:23
  pretty
• 18:23
  spot
• 18:23
  on
• 18:24
  a
• 18:24
  year
• 18:24
  ago.
• 18:24
  Okay.
• 18:25
  Between
• 18:26
  what's
• 18:26
  happened
• 18:26
  in
• 18:26
  a
• 18:26
  year.
• 18:27
  A
• 18:28
  year
• 18:28
  ago,
• 18:28
  you
• 18:28
  reduced
• 18:29
  risk.
• 18:30
  In
• 18:30
  your
• 18:30
  portfolio
• 18:31
  credit
• 18:32
  risk.
• 18:32
  Yep.
• 18:32
  You
• 18:32
  took
• 18:33
  the
• 18:34
  reduced
• 18:34
  credit
• 18:34
  risk,
• 18:35
  you
• 18:35
  went
• 18:35
  into
• 18:36
  more
• 18:36
  risk
• 18:36
  off,
• 18:37
  um,
• 18:37
  treasuries.
• 18:38
  Yep.
• 18:39
  Agency
• 18:39
  MBS,
• 18:40
  um,
• 18:41
  and
• 18:41
  it
• 18:41
  wasn't
• 18:42
  because
• 18:43
  of
• 18:43
  geopolitical
• 18:44
  risk,
• 18:44
  it
• 18:44
  was
• 18:44
  more
• 18:45
  credit
• 18:45
  spreads.
• 18:46
  Weren't
• 18:47
  getting
• 18:47
  rewarded.
• 18:48
  How
• 18:48
  do
• 18:48
  you
• 18:48
  feel
• 18:49
  about
• 18:49
  credit
• 18:49
  spreads
• 18:50
  today?
• 18:50
  Are
• 18:51
  you
• 18:51
  still
• 18:52
  bearish
• 18:52
  on
• 18:53
  credit?
• 18:53
  So
• 18:53
  we
• 18:53
  were
• 18:54
  never
• 18:54
  bearish
• 18:54
  per
• 18:55
  se.
• 18:55
  It
• 18:55
  was
• 18:55
  more
• 18:56
  of
• 18:56
  a,
• 18:56
  a,
• 18:56
  a
• 18:57
  thing
• 18:57
  of
• 18:57
  like,
• 18:57
  we
• 18:57
  didn't
• 18:57
  like
• 18:58
  the
• 18:58
  riskier
• 18:58
  parts
• 18:59
  of
• 18:59
  credit.
• 18:59
  And
• 19:00
  I
• 19:00
  still
• 19:00
  stay
• 19:00
  in
• 19:00
  that
• 19:01
  camp
• 19:01
  today,
• 19:01
  and
• 19:01
  I
• 19:01
  think
• 19:02
  we've
• 19:02
  seen
• 19:02
  more
• 19:02
  of
• 19:02
  the
• 19:03
  risks
• 19:03
  show
• 19:03
  up
• 19:04
  in
• 19:04
  the
• 19:04
  last
• 19:04
  six
• 19:04
  months.
• 19:05
  Right.
• 19:05
  You've
• 19:05
  seen
• 19:06
  this
• 19:06
  a
• 19:06
  lot
• 19:06
  in
• 19:06
  the
• 19:06
  loan
• 19:06
  market.
• 19:07
  You've
• 19:07
  seen
• 19:07
  it
• 19:08
  kind
• 19:08
  of
• 19:08
  in
• 19:08
  the
• 19:08
  private
• 19:08
  markets.
• 19:10
  We're
• 19:10
  just
• 19:10
  at
• 19:10
  the
• 19:10
  tip
• 19:10
  of
• 19:10
  the
• 19:10
  iceberg
• 19:11
  of
• 19:11
  this
• 19:11
  loan
• 19:12
  kind
• 19:12
  of
• 19:12
  issues.
• 19:13
  'cause
• 19:13
  the
• 19:13
  pain's
• 19:13
  been
• 19:13
  in
• 19:13
  the
• 19:14
  loan
• 19:14
  market
• 19:14
  for
• 19:14
  the
• 19:14
  last
• 19:14
  few
• 19:15
  years.
• 19:15
  Mm-hmm.
• 19:15
  'cause
• 19:15
  they
• 19:16
  had
• 19:16
  the,
• 19:16
  all
• 19:16
  the
• 19:16
  hikes
• 19:17
  hit
• 19:17
  them,
• 19:17
  the,
• 19:17
  the,
• 19:17
  the
• 19:18
  fastest.
• 19:19
  And
• 19:19
  so
• 19:20
  when
• 19:20
  I
• 19:20
  look
• 19:20
  back
• 19:21
  at
• 19:21
  it,
• 19:21
  we
• 19:21
  ended
• 19:21
  up,
• 19:22
  you
• 19:22
  know,
• 19:22
  as
• 19:22
  yields
• 19:22
  got
• 19:22
  lower
• 19:23
  in
• 19:23
  the
• 19:23
  year,
• 19:23
  we
• 19:23
  actually
• 19:23
  went
• 19:23
  and
• 19:24
  put
• 19:24
  more
• 19:24
  credit
• 19:24
  risk
• 19:24
  on
• 19:25
  in
• 19:25
  the
• 19:25
  summer
• 19:26
  and
• 19:26
  it
• 19:26
  turned
• 19:26
  out
• 19:27
  to
• 19:27
  be
• 19:27
  okay.
• 19:27
  Um,
• 19:28
  and
• 19:29
  then
• 19:29
  we
• 19:29
  had
• 19:29
  this
• 19:29
  huge
• 19:30
  risk
• 19:30
  rally
• 19:31
  in
• 19:31
  the
• 19:31
  last
• 19:32
  month
• 19:32
  or
• 19:32
  so
• 19:32
  of
• 19:32
  the
• 19:32
  year
• 19:32
  that
• 19:33
  was
• 19:33
  mainly
• 19:33
  in
• 19:33
  corporate
• 19:33
  bonds.
• 19:34
  And
• 19:34
  then
• 19:34
  the
• 19:34
  securitized
• 19:35
  markets
• 19:35
  were
• 19:35
  on
• 19:36
  fire
• 19:36
  for
• 19:36
  the
• 19:36
  first
• 19:37
  six
• 19:37
  weeks
• 19:37
  of
• 19:37
  the
• 19:37
  year.
• 19:38
  And
• 19:38
  so
• 19:39
  now
• 19:39
  we're
• 19:39
  back
• 19:39
  in
• 19:39
  that
• 19:40
  position
• 19:40
  where
• 19:41
  a
• 19:41
  few
• 19:41
  weeks
• 19:41
  ago
• 19:41
  we're
• 19:41
  like,
• 19:42
  yeah,
• 19:42
  it
• 19:42
  doesn't
• 19:43
  make
• 19:43
  sense
• 19:43
  to
• 19:43
  be
• 19:44
  adding
• 19:44
  more
• 19:44
  credit
• 19:45
  risk
• 19:45
  here.
• 19:45
  Um,
• 19:46
  but
• 19:47
  now
• 19:47
  given
• 19:47
  some
• 19:47
  of
• 19:47
  the
• 19:47
  little
• 19:48
  noise
• 19:48
  we've
• 19:48
  seen
• 19:49
  here,
• 19:49
  it's
• 19:49
  starting
• 19:50
  to
• 19:50
  look
• 19:50
  a
• 19:50
  little
• 19:50
  bit
• 19:50
  better,
• 19:51
  but
• 19:51
  let's
• 19:52
  talk
• 19:52
  about
• 19:52
  invest
• 19:52
  rate
• 19:52
  corporate
• 19:53
  bonds.
• 19:53
  Okay.
• 19:54
  Off
• 19:55
  the
• 19:55
  lows,
• 19:55
  we're
• 19:55
  15
• 19:56
  basis
• 19:56
  points
• 19:56
  wider.
• 19:57
  Should
• 19:57
  I
• 19:57
  be,
• 19:58
  how
• 19:58
  excited
• 19:58
  should
• 19:58
  I
• 19:58
  be
• 19:59
  about
• 19:59
  15
• 19:59
  more
• 19:59
  basis
• 20:00
  points,
• 20:00
  Ryan,
• 20:00
  on
• 20:00
  a
• 20:00
  seven
• 20:01
  year
• 20:01
  asset,
• 20:01
  right?
• 20:02
  I
• 20:02
  mean,
• 20:02
  is
• 20:02
  that
• 20:02
  really
• 20:03
  gonna
• 20:03
  change
• 20:04
  my
• 20:04
  outlook
• 20:04
  on
• 20:04
  things?
• 20:05
  Probably
• 20:05
  not.
• 20:06
  The
• 20:06
  high
• 20:06
  yield
• 20:06
  market
• 20:06
  off
• 20:07
  the
• 20:07
  tights
• 20:07
  were
• 20:07
  probably
• 20:08
  50
• 20:08
  to
• 20:09
  60.
• 20:09
  Just
• 20:09
  depends
• 20:10
  on
• 20:10
  pricing
• 20:10
  this
• 20:10
  morning,
• 20:11
  uh,
• 20:11
  wider.
• 20:12
  That's
• 20:12
  not
• 20:12
  a
• 20:13
  lot
• 20:13
  either.
• 20:13
  So
• 20:14
  the
• 20:14
  thing
• 20:14
  is,
• 20:14
  is
• 20:14
  that
• 20:15
  I
• 20:15
  and
• 20:15
  I,
• 20:15
  it
• 20:16
  feels
• 20:16
  like
• 20:16
  there's
• 20:16
  much
• 20:17
  more
• 20:17
  headline
• 20:17
  risk.
• 20:18
  Forget,
• 20:18
  forget
• 20:18
  the
• 20:19
  geopolitical.
• 20:20
  It
• 20:20
  seems
• 20:20
  that
• 20:20
  there
• 20:21
  are
• 20:21
  credit
• 20:21
  problems
• 20:21
  right
• 20:22
  now.
• 20:22
  And
• 20:23
  are
• 20:23
  they
• 20:23
  gonna
• 20:24
  be
• 20:24
  okay?
• 20:24
  Yes,
• 20:25
  they
• 20:25
  always
• 20:25
  are.
• 20:26
  Um,
• 20:26
  but
• 20:26
  we're
• 20:27
  gonna
• 20:27
  find
• 20:27
  out
• 20:27
  who's
• 20:27
  exposed.
• 20:28
  And
• 20:29
  I
• 20:29
  think
• 20:29
  it's
• 20:29
  gonna
• 20:29
  take
• 20:29
  a
• 20:29
  lot
• 20:30
  longer
• 20:30
  than
• 20:30
  we
• 20:30
  all
• 20:30
  think
• 20:31
  because
• 20:31
  we're
• 20:31
  all
• 20:31
  used
• 20:32
  to
• 20:32
  analyzing
• 20:32
  public
• 20:33
  markets
• 20:33
  and
• 20:33
  saying.
• 20:34
  Oh,
• 20:34
  well,
• 20:35
  once
• 20:35
  you've,
• 20:35
  we
• 20:35
  all
• 20:36
  know
• 20:36
  it's,
• 20:36
  the
• 20:36
  market
• 20:37
  will
• 20:37
  punish
• 20:37
  you.
• 20:38
  You
• 20:38
  can't
• 20:38
  punish
• 20:38
  the
• 20:39
  private
• 20:39
  trade.
• 20:40
  Private
• 20:40
  will
• 20:40
  just
• 20:41
  be
• 20:41
  what
• 20:41
  it
• 20:41
  is.
• 20:42
  So
• 20:43
  I,
• 20:43
  I
• 20:43
  think
• 20:43
  that
• 20:43
  this
• 20:43
  thing
• 20:44
  stays
• 20:44
  over
• 20:45
  us
• 20:45
  longer.
• 20:46
  Um,
• 20:46
  and
• 20:46
  we'll
• 20:46
  see
• 20:47
  how
• 20:47
  the
• 20:47
  workouts
• 20:47
  work
• 20:47
  and
• 20:48
  at
• 20:48
  the
• 20:48
  end
• 20:48
  of
• 20:48
  the
• 20:48
  day,
• 20:49
  there
• 20:49
  was
• 20:49
  a
• 20:49
  lot
• 20:49
  of
• 20:49
  money
• 20:49
  that
• 20:49
  went
• 20:50
  into
• 20:50
  it
• 20:50
  and
• 20:50
  we'll
• 20:50
  see
• 20:51
  how
• 20:51
  the
• 20:51
  underwriting
• 20:51
  is.
• 20:52
  Um,
• 20:52
  but
• 20:53
  when
• 20:53
  I
• 20:53
  look
• 20:53
  at
• 20:54
  the
• 20:54
  market
• 20:54
  and
• 20:54
  I
• 20:54
  look
• 20:54
  at
• 20:54
  like
• 20:55
  bank
• 20:55
  loans,
• 20:56
  they're
• 20:56
  weak
• 20:56
  right
• 20:56
  now.
• 20:57
  They're
• 20:57
  bleeding
• 20:57
  into
• 20:57
  the
• 20:57
  CLO
• 20:58
  market,
• 20:58
  right?
• 20:59
  Um,
• 20:59
  it's
• 20:59
  hitting
• 21:00
  other
• 21:00
  things.
• 21:00
  And
• 21:01
  so,
• 21:01
  um,
• 21:02
  these
• 21:02
  are
• 21:02
  the
• 21:02
  things
• 21:02
  we're
• 21:02
  talking
• 21:03
  about,
• 21:03
  but
• 21:03
  they
• 21:03
  last
• 21:03
  longer
• 21:04
  than
• 21:04
  you
• 21:04
  think.
• 21:04
  They,
• 21:04
  they,
• 21:05
  they,
• 21:05
  the,
• 21:06
  the
• 21:06
  excesses
• 21:06
  last
• 21:07
  longer
• 21:07
  and
• 21:07
  also
• 21:07
  so
• 21:08
  does
• 21:08
  the
• 21:08
  pain.
• 21:09
  And
• 21:09
  I
• 21:09
  think
• 21:09
  that's
• 21:10
  what
• 21:10
  we're
• 21:10
  all
• 21:10
  trying
• 21:11
  to
• 21:11
  digest
• 21:11
  right
• 21:12
  now.
• 21:12
  And,
• 21:13
  but
• 21:13
  things
• 21:14
  have
• 21:14
  been
• 21:14
  very
• 21:14
  well
• 21:14
  contained.
• 21:15
  I
• 21:15
  mean,
• 21:15
  I
• 21:15
  just
• 21:15
  had
• 21:15
  an
• 21:15
  investment
• 21:16
  call
• 21:16
  with
• 21:16
  the
• 21:16
  team,
• 21:17
  with
• 21:17
  all
• 21:17
  the
• 21:17
  sector
• 21:18
  heads
• 21:18
  and,
• 21:19
  you
• 21:19
  know,
• 21:19
  certain
• 21:19
  markets
• 21:20
  are
• 21:20
  immune
• 21:20
  right
• 21:20
  now,
• 21:21
  like
• 21:21
  the
• 21:21
  a
• 21:21
  BS
• 21:21
  market
• 21:22
  has.
• 21:22
  You
• 21:22
  wouldn't
• 21:22
  even
• 21:22
  know
• 21:23
  there's
• 21:23
  a
• 21:23
  war
• 21:24
  you
• 21:24
  wouldn't
• 21:24
  even
• 21:24
  know
• 21:24
  there's
• 21:25
  conflict.
• 21:25
  So
• 21:26
  there's,
• 21:26
  there's
• 21:26
  just
• 21:26
  little
• 21:26
  pockets
• 21:27
  out
• 21:27
  there
• 21:27
  and
• 21:27
  I
• 21:27
  think
• 21:28
  what
• 21:28
  we're
• 21:28
  seeing
• 21:29
  in
• 21:29
  credit
• 21:29
  in
• 21:29
  general
• 21:30
  is
• 21:30
  that
• 21:31
  there's
• 21:32
  still
• 21:32
  a
• 21:32
  bid
• 21:32
  for
• 21:32
  it.
• 21:33
  And
• 21:33
  there
• 21:33
  is
• 21:33
  because
• 21:34
  a
• 21:34
  lot
• 21:34
  of
• 21:35
  the
• 21:35
  under,
• 21:35
  a
• 21:35
  lot
• 21:35
  of
• 21:35
  the
• 21:35
  US
• 21:36
  companies
• 21:36
  are
• 21:36
  in
• 21:36
  good
• 21:36
  shape
• 21:37
  and
• 21:37
  so
• 21:38
  that's
• 21:38
  why
• 21:38
  credit
• 21:39
  spreads
• 21:39
  are
• 21:39
  tight.
• 21:40
  So
• 21:41
  I
• 21:41
  reminded
• 21:41
  the
• 21:41
  team
• 21:42
  last
• 21:42
  year
• 21:42
  that
• 21:43
  just
• 21:43
  because
• 21:43
  spreads
• 21:44
  are
• 21:44
  tight
• 21:44
  doesn't
• 21:44
  mean
• 21:45
  they
• 21:45
  widen.
• 21:46
  They
• 21:46
  can
• 21:46
  stay
• 21:46
  very
• 21:47
  tight
• 21:47
  for
• 21:47
  a
• 21:47
  long
• 21:48
  period
• 21:48
  of
• 21:48
  time.
• 21:48
  And
• 21:49
  history
• 21:49
  shows
• 21:50
  you
• 21:50
  this
• 21:50
  from
• 21:50
  like
• 21:51
  2003.
• 21:52
  To
• 21:52
  2006,
• 21:53
  which
• 21:53
  was
• 21:54
  a
• 21:54
  very
• 21:54
  good
• 21:54
  time.
• 21:54
  We
• 21:55
  were
• 21:55
  coming
• 21:55
  off
• 21:55
  the
• 21:55
  recession.
• 21:57
  The
• 21:57
  IG
• 21:57
  market
• 21:57
  traded
• 21:58
  in
• 21:58
  like
• 21:58
  a
• 21:58
  40
• 21:59
  basis
• 21:59
  point
• 21:59
  spread
• 22:00
  band
• 22:00
  over
• 22:00
  that
• 22:00
  three
• 22:01
  year
• 22:01
  period,
• 22:02
  and
• 22:03
  we
• 22:03
  got
• 22:03
  to
• 22:03
  some
• 22:03
  of
• 22:03
  the
• 22:03
  lowest
• 22:04
  spreads
• 22:04
  on
• 22:04
  record,
• 22:05
  and
• 22:05
  it
• 22:06
  takes
• 22:06
  a
• 22:06
  catalyst
• 22:07
  to
• 22:07
  do
• 22:07
  it
• 22:07
  and.
• 22:08
  You
• 22:08
  know,
• 22:08
  you
• 22:08
  need
• 22:08
  a
• 22:08
  disruption
• 22:09
  in
• 22:09
  credit
• 22:09
  to
• 22:10
  do
• 22:10
  it.
• 22:10
  And
• 22:10
  that
• 22:11
  will
• 22:11
  come
• 22:11
  at
• 22:11
  some
• 22:11
  point
• 22:12
  when
• 22:12
  some
• 22:12
  of
• 22:12
  the
• 22:12
  bad
• 22:12
  underwriting
• 22:13
  shows
• 22:13
  up.
• 22:14
  It.
• 22:14
  Jeffrey,
• 22:15
  that's
• 22:15
  a
• 22:15
  perfect
• 22:16
  segue
• 22:16
  'cause
• 22:16
  I
• 22:16
  was
• 22:17
  gonna
• 22:17
  ask,
• 22:18
  you
• 22:18
  know,
• 22:18
  we
• 22:18
  are
• 22:19
  oil's
• 22:19
  over
• 22:20
  a
• 22:20
  hundred
• 22:20
  dollars,
• 22:21
  we've
• 22:21
  got
• 22:21
  all
• 22:21
  this
• 22:21
  noise
• 22:22
  out
• 22:22
  there,
• 22:22
  all
• 22:23
  this
• 22:23
  concern,
• 22:23
  but
• 22:23
  like
• 22:24
  you
• 22:24
  said,
• 22:24
  spreads,
• 22:25
  if
• 22:25
  only
• 22:25
  widen
• 22:25
  by
• 22:26
  15
• 22:26
  basis
• 22:27
  points.
• 22:27
  What
• 22:27
  do
• 22:28
  I
• 22:28
  dare
• 22:28
  ask?
• 22:28
  Maybe
• 22:29
  I
• 22:29
  shouldn't
• 22:29
  ask
• 22:29
  this,
• 22:30
  but.
• 22:30
  What's
• 22:31
  it
• 22:31
  gonna
• 22:31
  take
• 22:31
  for
• 22:32
  spreads
• 22:32
  to
• 22:32
  get
• 22:32
  more
• 22:33
  attractive
• 22:34
  at
• 22:34
  this
• 22:34
  point?
• 22:35
  You,
• 22:35
  you
• 22:35
  kind
• 22:35
  of
• 22:35
  mentioned
• 22:36
  it,
• 22:36
  but
• 22:37
  it's
• 22:37
  like,
• 22:37
  we
• 22:37
  have
• 22:37
  all
• 22:37
  this
• 22:37
  noise
• 22:38
  yet.
• 22:39
  Yeah,
• 22:39
  but
• 22:39
  it's,
• 22:39
  it's
• 22:39
  noise
• 22:40
  as
• 22:40
  you
• 22:40
  said,
• 22:40
  like
• 22:40
  oil
• 22:41
  prices.
• 22:41
  Are
• 22:41
  they
• 22:41
  gonna
• 22:42
  stay
• 22:42
  here
• 22:42
  for
• 22:42
  five
• 22:43
  years?
• 22:43
  I
• 22:43
  don't
• 22:43
  know.
• 22:44
  Right.
• 22:44
  We
• 22:44
  don't
• 22:44
  know
• 22:45
  what
• 22:45
  it
• 22:45
  looks
• 22:45
  like.
• 22:46
  And
• 22:46
  so
• 22:46
  I
• 22:47
  think,
• 22:47
  you
• 22:47
  know,
• 22:47
  the,
• 22:48
  the
• 22:48
  first
• 22:48
  thing
• 22:48
  is
• 22:48
  to,
• 22:49
  to
• 22:49
  shake
• 22:49
  it
• 22:49
  off
• 22:49
  and
• 22:50
  slough
• 22:50
  it
• 22:50
  off
• 22:50
  and
• 22:50
  say
• 22:51
  it's
• 22:51
  not
• 22:51
  a
• 22:51
  big
• 22:51
  deal,
• 22:52
  but
• 22:53
  ultimately
• 22:54
  it's
• 22:54
  how
• 22:54
  long
• 22:54
  it
• 22:54
  lingers
• 22:55
  around
• 22:55
  and
• 22:55
  goes
• 22:56
  into
• 22:56
  the
• 22:56
  input.
• 22:57
  It's
• 22:57
  just
• 22:57
  like
• 22:57
  tariffs,
• 22:58
  right?
• 22:58
  Tariffs
• 22:59
  were
• 22:59
  a
• 22:59
  debacle
• 23:00
  after
• 23:00
  we
• 23:00
  got
• 23:00
  liberated,
• 23:01
  right?
• 23:02
  And
• 23:02
  it's
• 23:02
  like,
• 23:02
  oh,
• 23:02
  we
• 23:02
  have
• 23:02
  to
• 23:02
  dial
• 23:02
  it
• 23:03
  back.
• 23:03
  Well,
• 23:04
  then
• 23:04
  it's
• 23:04
  like,
• 23:04
  okay,
• 23:04
  now
• 23:04
  we
• 23:04
  have
• 23:05
  some,
• 23:05
  it's,
• 23:06
  you
• 23:06
  gotta
• 23:06
  find
• 23:06
  that
• 23:06
  balance.
• 23:07
  And
• 23:07
  so
• 23:08
  it's
• 23:08
  just
• 23:08
  re-underwriting
• 23:09
  is
• 23:09
  what
• 23:09
  it
• 23:09
  comes
• 23:09
  down
• 23:09
  to.
• 23:10
  So
• 23:10
  the
• 23:10
  question
• 23:11
  is,
• 23:11
  is
• 23:11
  how
• 23:11
  do
• 23:11
  you
• 23:11
  price
• 23:12
  oil
• 23:12
  today?
• 23:12
  Like,
• 23:13
  how
• 23:13
  do
• 23:13
  you
• 23:13
  put
• 23:13
  that
• 23:13
  into
• 23:14
  your
• 23:14
  model
• 23:14
  of
• 23:14
  your
• 23:14
  inputs?
• 23:15
  And
• 23:15
  by
• 23:15
  the
• 23:15
  way,
• 23:16
  oil
• 23:16
  is
• 23:16
  the
• 23:16
  most
• 23:16
  important
• 23:17
  commodity
• 23:17
  in
• 23:17
  the
• 23:17
  world.
• 23:18
  It
• 23:18
  just
• 23:18
  still
• 23:18
  is.
• 23:19
  You
• 23:19
  know,
• 23:19
  I,
• 23:19
  I
• 23:19
  know
• 23:19
  people
• 23:19
  would
• 23:20
  argue
• 23:20
  semiconductors
• 23:21
  and
• 23:21
  chips
• 23:21
  pretty
• 23:22
  close.
• 23:22
  I
• 23:22
  would
• 23:22
  agree
• 23:22
  with
• 23:23
  that.
• 23:23
  But
• 23:23
  oil
• 23:24
  is
• 23:24
  still
• 23:24
  very
• 23:24
  important.
• 23:25
  We
• 23:25
  all
• 23:25
  use
• 23:25
  it
• 23:25
  every
• 23:26
  day.
• 23:26
  So.
• 23:27
  I
• 23:27
  think
• 23:27
  that
• 23:28
  what
• 23:28
  you're
• 23:28
  seeing
• 23:29
  there
• 23:29
  is
• 23:29
  that,
• 23:29
  is
• 23:29
  it
• 23:29
  temporary
• 23:30
  or
• 23:31
  is
• 23:31
  it
• 23:31
  gonna
• 23:31
  be
• 23:31
  a
• 23:31
  longer,
• 23:32
  you
• 23:32
  know,
• 23:33
  kind
• 23:33
  of
• 23:33
  structural
• 23:33
  problem.
• 23:34
  And
• 23:35
  I,
• 23:35
  I
• 23:35
  don't
• 23:35
  know,
• 23:36
  I
• 23:36
  think
• 23:36
  the
• 23:36
  market
• 23:36
  is
• 23:37
  being
• 23:37
  a
• 23:37
  little
• 23:37
  too
• 23:38
  aggressive
• 23:38
  and
• 23:38
  assuming
• 23:39
  it's
• 23:39
  all
• 23:39
  gonna
• 23:39
  go
• 23:39
  away
• 23:40
  and
• 23:40
  go
• 23:40
  back
• 23:40
  to
• 23:40
  normal.
• 23:41
  But
• 23:41
  then
• 23:42
  again,
• 23:42
  that's
• 23:42
  our
• 23:42
  job
• 23:42
  as
• 23:43
  bond
• 23:43
  investors
• 23:43
  is
• 23:44
  to
• 23:44
  worry
• 23:44
  about
• 23:44
  things.
• 23:45
  Yeah.
• 23:45
  So
• 23:46
  do
• 23:46
  you
• 23:46
  think
• 23:46
  then
• 23:46
  credit
• 23:47
  spreads
• 23:47
  are.
• 23:48
  C,
• 23:48
  you
• 23:49
  know,
• 23:49
  reflect
• 23:50
  it
• 23:50
  at
• 23:50
  the
• 23:51
  right
• 23:51
  level
• 23:51
  right
• 23:51
  now
• 23:51
  you
• 23:52
  think?
• 23:52
  I,
• 23:52
  I
• 23:52
  do.
• 23:52
  I
• 23:52
  do,
• 23:53
  I
• 23:53
  do.
• 23:53
  Because
• 23:53
  I
• 23:54
  think
• 23:54
  that
• 23:54
  it,
• 23:54
  you
• 23:55
  go
• 23:55
  back
• 23:55
  to
• 23:55
  fundamentals.
• 23:56
  And
• 23:56
  so,
• 23:56
  you
• 23:56
  know,
• 23:56
  if
• 23:56
  you're
• 23:57
  talking
• 23:57
  about
• 23:57
  credit
• 23:58
  that
• 23:58
  you
• 23:58
  know
• 23:59
  doesn't
• 23:59
  have
• 23:59
  a
• 23:59
  lot
• 23:59
  of
• 24:00
  oil
• 24:00
  or
• 24:00
  energy
• 24:01
  input
• 24:01
  into
• 24:01
  the
• 24:01
  business
• 24:02
  model,
• 24:02
  then
• 24:03
  why,
• 24:03
  why
• 24:03
  should
• 24:03
  it,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:04
  have,
• 24:04
  have
• 24:05
  any
• 24:05
  reflection
• 24:05
  on
• 24:05
  that?
• 24:06
  It
• 24:06
  comes
• 24:06
  down
• 24:06
  to
• 24:06
  leverage,
• 24:07
  it
• 24:07
  comes
• 24:07
  down
• 24:07
  to
• 24:07
  interest
• 24:08
  coverage,
• 24:08
  it
• 24:08
  comes
• 24:08
  down
• 24:09
  to
• 24:09
  all
• 24:09
  the
• 24:09
  metrics
• 24:09
  we'll
• 24:09
  look
• 24:10
  at.
• 24:10
  To
• 24:10
  say,
• 24:10
  can
• 24:11
  you
• 24:11
  pay
• 24:11
  your
• 24:11
  bills
• 24:11
  back?
• 24:12
  And
• 24:12
  so,
• 24:13
  you
• 24:13
  know,
• 24:14
  again,
• 24:14
  one
• 24:14
  part
• 24:15
  that's
• 24:15
  been
• 24:15
  hot
• 24:15
  shocking
• 24:16
  is
• 24:16
  the
• 24:16
  energy
• 24:16
  names,
• 24:17
  you
• 24:17
  know,
• 24:17
  in
• 24:17
  the
• 24:17
  high
• 24:17
  yield
• 24:17
  space.
• 24:18
  Right.
• 24:18
  Uh,
• 24:18
  they've
• 24:18
  done
• 24:19
  very
• 24:19
  well
• 24:19
  recently
• 24:19
  because
• 24:20
  they're
• 24:20
  gonna,
• 24:20
  they're
• 24:21
  gonna
• 24:21
  make
• 24:21
  their
• 24:21
  payments.
• 24:22
  Right.
• 24:22
  So
• 24:23
  I,
• 24:23
  I
• 24:23
  think
• 24:23
  it's,
• 24:24
  it's
• 24:24
  trying
• 24:25
  to
• 24:25
  say
• 24:25
  how
• 24:25
  long
• 24:25
  does
• 24:26
  this
• 24:26
  go?
• 24:26
  And,
• 24:26
  uh,
• 24:26
  obviously
• 24:27
  none
• 24:27
  of
• 24:27
  us
• 24:27
  know,
• 24:28
  but
• 24:29
  the
• 24:29
  conflicts
• 24:30
  in
• 24:30
  the
• 24:30
  Middle
• 24:30
  East
• 24:30
  tend
• 24:31
  to
• 24:31
  last
• 24:31
  a
• 24:31
  lot
• 24:31
  longer
• 24:32
  than
• 24:32
  ever
• 24:32
  forecasted
• 24:33
  by
• 24:33
  our
• 24:33
  politicians.
• 24:34
  Yeah,
• 24:35
  exactly.
• 24:36
  It's
• 24:37
  been
• 24:37
  more
• 24:37
  than
• 24:37
  a
• 24:37
  week.
• 24:38
  Yeah,
• 24:39
  it's
• 24:39
  been,
• 24:39
  yeah,
• 24:39
  it
• 24:39
  has.
• 24:40
  I
• 24:40
  think
• 24:40
  this
• 24:40
  is
• 24:40
  the
• 24:41
  third
• 24:41
  week
• 24:41
  now,
• 24:41
  you
• 24:42
  know,
• 24:42
  and
• 24:42
  it
• 24:42
  sure
• 24:43
  doesn't
• 24:43
  look
• 24:43
  like
• 24:43
  it's
• 24:43
  any,
• 24:44
  uh,
• 24:44
  any
• 24:44
  less,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:45
  less,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:45
  toxic
• 24:46
  than
• 24:46
  it
• 24:46
  was.
• 24:46
  Exactly.
• 24:47
  Let's,
• 24:48
  uh,
• 24:48
  talk
• 24:48
  a
• 24:48
  little
• 24:48
  bit
• 24:49
  about
• 24:49
  duration.
• 24:50
  There's
• 24:51
  kind
• 24:51
  of
• 24:51
  that,
• 24:52
  what
• 24:52
  do
• 24:52
  you
• 24:53
  do
• 24:53
  at
• 24:53
  this
• 24:53
  point
• 24:53
  with
• 24:54
  duration?
• 24:54
  Do
• 24:54
  you
• 24:54
  lock
• 24:55
  in
• 24:55
  some
• 24:55
  of
• 24:55
  these
• 24:56
  yields
• 24:57
  that
• 24:57
  are,
• 24:57
  could
• 24:57
  be
• 24:57
  attractive
• 24:58
  at
• 24:58
  this
• 24:58
  level,
• 24:59
  or
• 25:00
  do
• 25:00
  you
• 25:01
  go
• 25:01
  shorter?
• 25:02
  Yeah.
• 25:02
  Because
• 25:02
  of
• 25:02
  the
• 25:02
  uncertainty
• 25:03
  out
• 25:03
  there?
• 25:03
  Well,
• 25:03
  I
• 25:04
  mean,
• 25:04
  I
• 25:04
  think
• 25:05
  that
• 25:05
  when
• 25:05
  you
• 25:06
  think
• 25:06
  about
• 25:06
  locking
• 25:07
  in
• 25:07
  yields,
• 25:07
  the
• 25:07
  question
• 25:08
  is,
• 25:08
  okay,
• 25:08
  what's
• 25:08
  the
• 25:08
  Fed
• 25:09
  gonna
• 25:09
  do?
• 25:09
  So
• 25:10
  if
• 25:10
  the
• 25:10
  Fed
• 25:10
  cuts
• 25:10
  rates
• 25:11
  this
• 25:12
  year,
• 25:12
  let's
• 25:12
  say
• 25:12
  a
• 25:12
  couple
• 25:12
  times,
• 25:14
  does
• 25:14
  the
• 25:14
  backend
• 25:14
  follow
• 25:15
  it?
• 25:15
  Sure
• 25:15
  hasn't
• 25:16
  thus
• 25:16
  far.
• 25:17
  Right?
• 25:17
  So
• 25:18
  that's
• 25:18
  a
• 25:18
  different
• 25:18
  story.
• 25:19
  But
• 25:20
  if
• 25:20
  you're
• 25:20
  talking
• 25:20
  about
• 25:20
  locking
• 25:20
  in,
• 25:20
  you
• 25:21
  think
• 25:21
  there's
• 25:21
  a
• 25:21
  couple
• 25:21
  cuts?
• 25:22
  Maybe
• 25:22
  owning
• 25:22
  something
• 25:22
  on
• 25:23
  the
• 25:23
  two
• 25:23
  year
• 25:23
  part
• 25:23
  of
• 25:23
  the
• 25:23
  curve
• 25:24
  ma
• 25:24
  does
• 25:24
  make
• 25:25
  a
• 25:25
  lot
• 25:25
  of
• 25:25
  sense.
• 25:25
  Right?
• 25:26
  So
• 25:27
  in
• 25:27
  our
• 25:27
  shorter
• 25:27
  duration
• 25:28
  products,
• 25:28
  we
• 25:28
  actually
• 25:28
  have
• 25:29
  lengthened
• 25:29
  our
• 25:29
  duration
• 25:29
  a
• 25:29
  little
• 25:30
  bit
• 25:30
  because
• 25:31
  we
• 25:31
  had
• 25:31
  rolled
• 25:31
  down,
• 25:32
  you
• 25:32
  know,
• 25:32
  that's
• 25:32
  the
• 25:32
  one
• 25:32
  thing
• 25:32
  about
• 25:32
  a
• 25:33
  bond
• 25:33
  investor.
• 25:33
  Every
• 25:33
  day
• 25:34
  your
• 25:34
  portfolio
• 25:34
  gets
• 25:34
  shorter,
• 25:35
  you
• 25:35
  know,
• 25:35
  just
• 25:35
  by
• 25:35
  that
• 25:36
  you
• 25:36
  have
• 25:36
  to
• 25:36
  reinvest
• 25:37
  some
• 25:37
  things.
• 25:37
  And
• 25:37
  so
• 25:38
  what
• 25:38
  we
• 25:38
  had
• 25:38
  was,
• 25:38
  um,
• 25:39
  you
• 25:39
  know,
• 25:39
  we,
• 25:39
  we
• 25:39
  rolled
• 25:39
  some
• 25:40
  of
• 25:40
  our
• 25:40
  exposure
• 25:40
  out.
• 25:41
  Uh,
• 25:41
  on
• 25:41
  our
• 25:41
  t-bills
• 25:42
  and
• 25:42
  things,
• 25:42
  trying
• 25:42
  to
• 25:42
  move
• 25:43
  out
• 25:43
  the
• 25:43
  curve
• 25:43
  a
• 25:43
  little
• 25:44
  bit,
• 25:44
  but
• 25:44
  we
• 25:44
  still
• 25:44
  own
• 25:44
  floaters.
• 25:45
  I
• 25:45
  still,
• 25:46
  you
• 25:46
  know,
• 25:46
  in
• 25:46
  the
• 25:46
  low
• 25:46
  duration
• 25:47
  product,
• 25:47
  you
• 25:47
  know,
• 25:47
  have
• 25:48
  roughly
• 25:48
  20,
• 25:49
  22%
• 25:49
  floating
• 25:50
  rate
• 25:50
  debt
• 25:50
  still.
• 25:51
  Why?
• 25:52
  It's
• 25:52
  kind
• 25:52
  of
• 25:52
  because
• 25:52
  the
• 25:53
  bond
• 25:53
  market's
• 25:53
  been
• 25:53
  wrong
• 25:54
  on
• 25:54
  that
• 25:54
  and
• 25:55
  I'm
• 25:55
  not,
• 25:55
  we're
• 25:55
  not
• 25:55
  forecasting
• 25:56
  that
• 25:56
  side.
• 25:56
  And
• 25:56
  if
• 25:56
  I
• 25:56
  have
• 25:57
  good
• 25:57
  credit
• 25:57
  that
• 25:57
  floats,
• 25:57
  it's
• 25:58
  fine.
• 25:58
  So
• 25:59
  I
• 25:59
  understand
• 26:00
  why
• 26:00
  investors
• 26:01
  are
• 26:01
  skittish
• 26:01
  of
• 26:01
  duration
• 26:03
  and,
• 26:03
  um,
• 26:03
  there's
• 26:03
  a
• 26:03
  phrase
• 26:03
  we
• 26:04
  like
• 26:04
  to
• 26:04
  use
• 26:04
  that
• 26:04
  in
• 26:04
  general
• 26:05
  that
• 26:05
  we
• 26:05
  say
• 26:05
  investors
• 26:06
  fight
• 26:06
  the
• 26:06
  last
• 26:06
  war.
• 26:07
  I'm
• 26:07
  not
• 26:07
  talking
• 26:08
  about
• 26:08
  the
• 26:08
  one
• 26:08
  ongoing
• 26:09
  right
• 26:09
  now,
• 26:09
  but
• 26:09
  we're
• 26:10
  still
• 26:10
  fighting
• 26:10
  the
• 26:10
  inflation
• 26:11
  war
• 26:11
  and
• 26:12
  I
• 26:12
  think
• 26:12
  that
• 26:13
  that
• 26:13
  has
• 26:13
  burned
• 26:13
  a
• 26:13
  lot
• 26:13
  of
• 26:14
  people
• 26:14
  and
• 26:14
  it's
• 26:14
  still
• 26:14
  seared
• 26:15
  into
• 26:15
  their
• 26:15
  memories
• 26:16
  and
• 26:16
  they're
• 26:16
  skittish
• 26:17
  on
• 26:17
  duration
• 26:18
  for
• 26:18
  that
• 26:18
  reason.
• 26:19
  And
• 26:20
  what
• 26:20
  I
• 26:20
  tell
• 26:20
  people
• 26:20
  is
• 26:20
  if
• 26:20
  you
• 26:20
  think
• 26:21
  cash
• 26:21
  rates
• 26:21
  are
• 26:21
  coming
• 26:22
  down,
• 26:23
  you
• 26:23
  probably
• 26:23
  should
• 26:23
  be
• 26:23
  moving
• 26:24
  out
• 26:24
  the
• 26:24
  curve
• 26:24
  a
• 26:24
  little
• 26:24
  bit.
• 26:25
  And
• 26:25
  so
• 26:25
  from
• 26:26
  our
• 26:26
  standpoint,
• 26:26
  we
• 26:27
  like
• 26:27
  front
• 26:27
  end
• 26:27
  paper,
• 26:28
  like
• 26:28
  we
• 26:28
  like
• 26:28
  stuff
• 26:29
  in
• 26:29
  the
• 26:29
  one
• 26:29
  to
• 26:29
  two
• 26:29
  year
• 26:29
  parts
• 26:30
  of
• 26:30
  the
• 26:30
  curve.
• 26:30
  There's
• 26:30
  different
• 26:30
  parts
• 26:31
  of
• 26:31
  the
• 26:31
  market
• 26:31
  you
• 26:31
  can
• 26:31
  buy
• 26:32
  there
• 26:32
  and
• 26:32
  you
• 26:33
  can
• 26:33
  do
• 26:33
  a
• 26:33
  hundred,
• 26:34
  125
• 26:34
  over
• 26:34
  cash
• 26:35
  today.
• 26:36
  So
• 26:36
  that's
• 26:37
  pretty
• 26:37
  attractive.
• 26:38
  Mm-hmm.
• 26:38
  Um,
• 26:39
  and,
• 26:39
  but
• 26:40
  if
• 26:40
  you
• 26:40
  start
• 26:40
  to
• 26:40
  buy
• 26:40
  duration
• 26:41
  and
• 26:41
  you
• 26:41
  move
• 26:42
  into
• 26:42
  the
• 26:42
  belly
• 26:42
  of
• 26:42
  the
• 26:42
  curve,
• 26:43
  now
• 26:44
  you're
• 26:44
  only
• 26:44
  picking
• 26:44
  up
• 26:45
  maybe
• 26:45
  150
• 26:45
  to
• 26:46
  cash.
• 26:47
  But
• 26:47
  there
• 26:47
  is
• 26:47
  the
• 26:48
  potential,
• 26:48
  if
• 26:48
  things
• 26:49
  slow
• 26:49
  down,
• 26:49
  if
• 26:49
  this
• 26:50
  causes
• 26:50
  some
• 26:50
  slowdown,
• 26:50
  I
• 26:51
  do
• 26:51
  think
• 26:51
  yields
• 26:51
  come
• 26:51
  down
• 26:52
  across
• 26:52
  the
• 26:52
  curve.
• 26:53
  So
• 26:53
  I
• 26:53
  like
• 26:54
  a
• 26:54
  mix
• 26:54
  of
• 26:54
  it.
• 26:55
  But
• 26:55
  in
• 26:55
  general,
• 26:56
  general,
• 26:56
  um,
• 26:56
  I,
• 26:57
  I,
• 26:57
  I
• 26:57
  really
• 26:58
  don't
• 26:58
  mind
• 26:59
  owning
• 26:59
  intermediate
• 26:59
  duration
• 27:00
  risk.
• 27:00
  But
• 27:01
  we
• 27:01
  hate
• 27:01
  the
• 27:01
  30
• 27:01
  year
• 27:01
  treasury.
• 27:02
  We
• 27:02
  hate
• 27:03
  the
• 27:03
  backend
• 27:03
  of
• 27:03
  the
• 27:03
  curve,
• 27:04
  and
• 27:04
  I
• 27:04
  hate
• 27:04
  the
• 27:04
  backend
• 27:04
  of
• 27:05
  the
• 27:05
  curve.
• 27:05
  In
• 27:05
  every
• 27:05
  market,
• 27:06
  the
• 27:06
  developed
• 27:07
  world,
• 27:07
  backend
• 27:08
  rates
• 27:08
  have
• 27:08
  been
• 27:08
  on
• 27:08
  a
• 27:09
  tear
• 27:09
  upward,
• 27:10
  and
• 27:10
  almost
• 27:11
  every
• 27:11
  single
• 27:11
  developed
• 27:12
  world
• 27:12
  country
• 27:13
  trades
• 27:13
  near
• 27:13
  the
• 27:14
  high
• 27:14
  of
• 27:14
  those
• 27:14
  ranges.
• 27:15
  This
• 27:15
  is
• 27:15
  not
• 27:16
  just
• 27:16
  a
• 27:16
  US
• 27:16
  phenomenon.
• 27:17
  This
• 27:17
  is
• 27:18
  something
• 27:18
  that
• 27:18
  permeates
• 27:19
  the
• 27:19
  entire
• 27:19
  developed
• 27:20
  world
• 27:20
  because
• 27:20
  we
• 27:20
  all
• 27:21
  have
• 27:21
  these
• 27:21
  same
• 27:21
  fiscal
• 27:21
  problems.
• 27:22
  So
• 27:23
  when
• 27:23
  it
• 27:23
  comes
• 27:23
  to
• 27:23
  duration,
• 27:24
  I
• 27:24
  don't
• 27:25
  think
• 27:25
  you
• 27:25
  should
• 27:25
  load
• 27:25
  the
• 27:25
  boat
• 27:25
  up
• 27:26
  with
• 27:26
  it.
• 27:26
  Mm-hmm.
• 27:26
  I
• 27:26
  think
• 27:27
  you
• 27:27
  ought
• 27:27
  to
• 27:27
  be
• 27:27
  careful
• 27:27
  here.
• 27:28
  And
• 27:28
  look,
• 27:29
  I
• 27:29
  like
• 27:29
  the
• 27:29
  five
• 27:29
  year
• 27:29
  part
• 27:30
  of
• 27:30
  the
• 27:30
  curve.
• 27:30
  Just
• 27:31
  to
• 27:31
  me,
• 27:31
  that's
• 27:31
  the
• 27:31
  economy.
• 27:32
  And
• 27:32
  if
• 27:33
  things
• 27:33
  slow
• 27:33
  down
• 27:34
  that
• 27:34
  part
• 27:34
  rallies.
• 27:35
  Um,
• 27:35
  but
• 27:36
  you
• 27:36
  don't
• 27:36
  get
• 27:36
  huge
• 27:37
  pickup,
• 27:37
  continue
• 27:37
  to
• 27:38
  go
• 27:38
  out.
• 27:38
  'cause
• 27:38
  the
• 27:38
  curve
• 27:38
  isn't
• 27:39
  that
• 27:39
  steep.
• 27:40
  You
• 27:40
  know,
• 27:40
  where
• 27:40
  it's
• 27:40
  steep
• 27:40
  is
• 27:41
  two
• 27:41
  is
• 27:41
  the
• 27:41
  thirties
• 27:42
  and
• 27:42
  it,
• 27:42
  I
• 27:42
  think
• 27:42
  it's
• 27:43
  steep
• 27:43
  for
• 27:43
  a
• 27:43
  reason,
• 27:43
  is
• 27:44
  that
• 27:44
  a
• 27:44
  lot
• 27:44
  of
• 27:44
  us
• 27:44
  are
• 27:44
  skittish
• 27:45
  on
• 27:45
  that
• 27:45
  back
• 27:45
  and
• 27:46
  the
• 27:46
  curve.
• 27:46
  Yeah.
• 27:47
  That's
• 27:47
  fantastic.
• 27:48
  So
• 27:48
  you
• 27:49
  diversify
• 27:50
  a
• 27:50
  little
• 27:50
  bit
• 27:50
  across
• 27:51
  the
• 27:51
  curve
• 27:51
  then?
• 27:52
  Yeah.
• 27:52
  Yeah.
• 27:52
  I
• 27:52
  mean,
• 27:53
  I,
• 27:53
  I
• 27:53
  like
• 27:53
  owning
• 27:53
  credit
• 27:54
  on
• 27:54
  the
• 27:54
  front
• 27:54
  end.
• 27:55
  I
• 27:55
  like
• 27:55
  owning
• 27:55
  rates
• 27:56
  in
• 27:56
  the
• 27:56
  belly.
• 27:56
  Right.
• 27:57
  And
• 27:57
  own
• 27:57
  a
• 27:57
  little
• 27:57
  bit
• 27:58
  more
• 27:58
  like
• 27:58
  in
• 27:58
  the
• 27:58
  10
• 27:58
  year
• 27:59
  and
• 27:59
  a
• 27:59
  little
• 27:59
  bit
• 27:59
  out,
• 27:59
  just
• 27:59
  to
• 28:00
  kind
• 28:00
  of
• 28:00
  balance
• 28:00
  out
• 28:01
  some
• 28:01
  duration
• 28:01
  there.
• 28:02
  But
• 28:02
  I
• 28:02
  think
• 28:02
  owning
• 28:03
  shorter
• 28:03
  duration
• 28:04
  credit
• 28:04
  today
• 28:04
  is
• 28:05
  very
• 28:05
  interesting
• 28:06
  because
• 28:07
  I
• 28:07
  don't
• 28:07
  have
• 28:07
  to
• 28:07
  deal
• 28:08
  with,
• 28:08
  you
• 28:08
  know,
• 28:08
  tariff
• 28:09
  and
• 28:09
  certain,
• 28:09
  I,
• 28:09
  there's,
• 28:10
  I
• 28:10
  I,
• 28:10
  it's
• 28:10
  easier
• 28:11
  to
• 28:11
  calculate
• 28:11
  on
• 28:12
  a
• 28:12
  shorter
• 28:12
  path
• 28:12
  than
• 28:13
  saying,
• 28:13
  are
• 28:13
  you
• 28:13
  gonna
• 28:13
  survive
• 28:14
  for
• 28:14
  10
• 28:14
  years?
• 28:15
  Mm-hmm.
• 28:15
  Right.
• 28:15
  But
• 28:15
  there's
• 28:16
  a
• 28:16
  reason
• 28:16
  that
• 28:16
  credit
• 28:16
  spreads
• 28:17
  are
• 28:17
  tight
• 28:17
  is
• 28:17
  because
• 28:17
  the
• 28:18
  underwriting
• 28:18
  has
• 28:18
  been
• 28:18
  good.
• 28:19
  And
• 28:19
  don't
• 28:19
  forget,
• 28:20
  these
• 28:20
  companies
• 28:20
  have
• 28:20
  de
• 28:21
  levered
• 28:21
  just
• 28:21
  based
• 28:22
  on
• 28:22
  their
• 28:22
  stock
• 28:22
  prices.
• 28:23
  Right
• 28:23
  now
• 28:24
  that
• 28:24
  can
• 28:24
  reverse
• 28:24
  and
• 28:25
  that
• 28:25
  can,
• 28:25
  you
• 28:25
  know,
• 28:25
  lever
• 28:26
  you
• 28:26
  up
• 28:26
  a
• 28:26
  little
• 28:26
  bit.
• 28:26
  But
• 28:27
  the
• 28:27
  quality
• 28:27
  of
• 28:28
  the,
• 28:28
  of
• 28:28
  the
• 28:29
  overall
• 28:29
  market
• 28:30
  is
• 28:30
  higher
• 28:30
  than
• 28:30
  it's
• 28:31
  been,
• 28:31
  but
• 28:32
  there's
• 28:32
  just
• 28:32
  a
• 28:32
  lot
• 28:32
  of
• 28:32
  debt
• 28:33
  out
• 28:33
  there.
• 28:33
  Yeah,
• 28:34
  no,
• 28:34
  fantastic.
• 28:35
  So
• 28:35
  one
• 28:35
  of
• 28:35
  the
• 28:35
  best
• 28:36
  performing
• 28:36
  fixed
• 28:37
  income
• 28:37
  asset
• 28:37
  classes
• 28:38
  over
• 28:38
  the
• 28:38
  past
• 28:38
  year
• 28:39
  has
• 28:39
  been.
• 28:39
  Agency
• 28:40
  mortgage
• 28:40
  backs
• 28:41
  fantastic
• 28:42
  year.
• 28:42
  Do
• 28:43
  you
• 28:43
  think
• 28:43
  there's
• 28:43
  more
• 28:43
  room
• 28:44
  to
• 28:44
  run
• 28:44
  mortgage
• 28:45
  rates?
• 28:45
  They've
• 28:46
  come
• 28:46
  down
• 28:46
  some,
• 28:47
  does
• 28:47
  that
• 28:47
  concern
• 28:48
  you
• 28:48
  about
• 28:48
  maybe
• 28:49
  some
• 28:49
  prepayment
• 28:49
  risk
• 28:50
  there
• 28:51
  or
• 28:51
  are
• 28:51
  they
• 28:51
  still
• 28:51
  attractive?
• 28:52
  Yeah,
• 28:52
  they're
• 28:52
  still
• 28:52
  attractive.
• 28:53
  Um,
• 28:53
  but
• 28:54
  they're
• 28:54
  not
• 28:54
  like
• 28:54
  they
• 28:54
  were,
• 28:55
  so
• 28:55
  mortgages
• 28:56
  really
• 28:57
  suffered
• 28:57
  in
• 28:57
  22
• 28:58
  and
• 28:58
  23
• 28:59
  because
• 28:59
  they
• 28:59
  were
• 28:59
  over
• 29:00
  owned
• 29:00
  by
• 29:00
  the
• 29:00
  banks,
• 29:01
  you
• 29:01
  know,
• 29:01
  so
• 29:02
  remember
• 29:02
  the
• 29:02
  way
• 29:02
  the
• 29:02
  banking
• 29:03
  system
• 29:03
  works,
• 29:04
  when
• 29:04
  we
• 29:04
  got
• 29:04
  those
• 29:04
  stimulus
• 29:05
  checks
• 29:05
  and
• 29:05
  it
• 29:05
  went
• 29:05
  to
• 29:06
  the
• 29:06
  banking
• 29:06
  system.
• 29:07
  It
• 29:07
  sits
• 29:07
  there,
• 29:08
  they
• 29:08
  have
• 29:08
  to
• 29:08
  invest
• 29:08
  and
• 29:08
  they
• 29:08
  bought
• 29:09
  a
• 29:09
  lot
• 29:09
  of
• 29:09
  mortgages.
• 29:09
  So
• 29:10
  mortgage
• 29:10
  spreads
• 29:11
  got
• 29:11
  extremely
• 29:12
  tight
• 29:13
  in
• 29:13
  like
• 29:13
  the
• 29:13
  summer,
• 29:14
  let's
• 29:14
  call
• 29:14
  it,
• 29:14
  of
• 29:14
  21,
• 29:16
  um,
• 29:16
  all
• 29:16
  the
• 29:16
  way
• 29:16
  through
• 29:17
  22.
• 29:18
  And
• 29:18
  then
• 29:18
  we
• 29:18
  got
• 29:18
  this
• 29:19
  big
• 29:19
  reversal.
• 29:20
  And
• 29:20
  so
• 29:20
  they
• 29:21
  were
• 29:21
  mired
• 29:21
  out
• 29:21
  there
• 29:22
  for
• 29:22
  a
• 29:22
  while.
• 29:22
  It,
• 29:23
  it
• 29:23
  took
• 29:23
  really
• 29:23
  the
• 29:23
  second
• 29:24
  half
• 29:24
  of
• 29:24
  the
• 29:24
  year
• 29:24
  for
• 29:25
  agency
• 29:25
  mortgages
• 29:26
  to
• 29:26
  really
• 29:26
  come
• 29:26
  down.
• 29:27
  And
• 29:27
  a
• 29:27
  lot
• 29:27
  of
• 29:27
  that
• 29:28
  was
• 29:28
  rate
• 29:28
  volatility
• 29:28
  coming
• 29:29
  down.
• 29:29
  So,
• 29:29
  'cause
• 29:29
  you
• 29:30
  have,
• 29:30
  you're
• 29:30
  short
• 29:30
  an
• 29:30
  option,
• 29:31
  blah,
• 29:31
  blah,
• 29:31
  blah.
• 29:32
  No
• 29:32
  one
• 29:32
  cares
• 29:32
  about
• 29:32
  all
• 29:32
  this
• 29:32
  stuff.
• 29:33
  But
• 29:33
  the
• 29:33
  thing
• 29:33
  is,
• 29:34
  is
• 29:34
  that
• 29:34
  you
• 29:34
  do
• 29:34
  have
• 29:34
  prepayment
• 29:35
  risk
• 29:35
  on
• 29:35
  buying
• 29:36
  that
• 29:36
  trade.
• 29:36
  That
• 29:37
  trade
• 29:37
  today
• 29:37
  probably
• 29:38
  yields
• 29:38
  one
• 29:38
  20
• 29:38
  over
• 29:39
  comparable
• 29:39
  treasury.
• 29:40
  So
• 29:40
  I'm
• 29:40
  not
• 29:40
  using
• 29:40
  a
• 29:40
  spread,
• 29:41
  I'm
• 29:41
  just
• 29:41
  giving
• 29:41
  you
• 29:41
  duration
• 29:42
  match.
• 29:43
  Um,
• 29:43
  but
• 29:43
  you
• 29:43
  can,
• 29:44
  you
• 29:44
  can
• 29:44
  actually
• 29:44
  manage
• 29:44
  that
• 29:45
  risk.
• 29:45
  Ryan,
• 29:45
  there's
• 29:45
  when
• 29:46
  to
• 29:46
  do
• 29:46
  it,
• 29:47
  and
• 29:47
  there's
• 29:47
  these
• 29:47
  things
• 29:47
  called
• 29:48
  seasoned
• 29:48
  coupon
• 29:49
  mortgages.
• 29:50
  These
• 29:50
  are
• 29:50
  these
• 29:50
  old
• 29:51
  archaic
• 29:52
  mortgages
• 29:52
  back
• 29:52
  from
• 29:53
  2021.
• 29:54
  They
• 29:54
  have
• 29:54
  two
• 29:55
  and
• 29:55
  a
• 29:55
  half,
• 29:55
  three
• 29:55
  coupons,
• 29:56
  three
• 29:56
  and
• 29:56
  a
• 29:56
  half
• 29:56
  coupons.
• 29:57
  So
• 29:57
  with
• 29:57
  that,
• 29:58
  they
• 29:58
  don't
• 29:58
  have
• 29:58
  prepayment
• 29:59
  risk.
• 30:00
  Now
• 30:00
  you
• 30:00
  can
• 30:00
  say,
• 30:00
  well,
• 30:01
  what
• 30:02
  if
• 30:02
  someone
• 30:02
  refis
• 30:03
  it?
• 30:03
  Well,
• 30:03
  great,
• 30:04
  those
• 30:04
  bonds
• 30:04
  traded
• 30:04
  like
• 30:04
  85
• 30:05
  cents
• 30:05
  in
• 30:05
  the
• 30:05
  dollar.
• 30:06
  I
• 30:06
  like
• 30:07
  things
• 30:07
  that
• 30:07
  I
• 30:07
  buy
• 30:07
  at
• 30:07
  85
• 30:08
  that
• 30:08
  pay
• 30:08
  me
• 30:08
  a
• 30:08
  hundred
• 30:09
  really
• 30:09
  quickly.
• 30:10
  So
• 30:10
  there's
• 30:10
  a
• 30:10
  way
• 30:11
  of
• 30:11
  managing
• 30:11
  that
• 30:11
  risk
• 30:12
  through
• 30:12
  it.
• 30:12
  Now
• 30:12
  it
• 30:12
  doesn't
• 30:12
  have
• 30:13
  as
• 30:13
  much
• 30:13
  yield
• 30:13
  on
• 30:13
  that
• 30:14
  for
• 30:14
  good
• 30:15
  reason
• 30:15
  'cause
• 30:15
  you
• 30:16
  don't
• 30:16
  have
• 30:16
  that,
• 30:16
  that
• 30:17
  negative
• 30:17
  convexity.
• 30:18
  But
• 30:18
  at
• 30:19
  the
• 30:19
  end
• 30:19
  of
• 30:19
  it,
• 30:19
  I
• 30:20
  think
• 30:20
  that
• 30:20
  managing
• 30:20
  that
• 30:21
  together
• 30:21
  is
• 30:21
  a
• 30:21
  very
• 30:22
  interesting
• 30:22
  way.
• 30:22
  And
• 30:22
  by
• 30:22
  the
• 30:23
  way,
• 30:23
  you
• 30:23
  can
• 30:23
  put
• 30:23
  that
• 30:23
  portfolio
• 30:24
  together
• 30:24
  and
• 30:25
  you
• 30:25
  have
• 30:25
  a
• 30:25
  higher
• 30:25
  yield
• 30:25
  than
• 30:25
  IG
• 30:26
  corporates.
• 30:27
  Now
• 30:27
  it
• 30:27
  doesn't
• 30:27
  mean
• 30:27
  I
• 30:27
  hate
• 30:27
  IG
• 30:28
  corporates
• 30:28
  'cause
• 30:28
  I
• 30:28
  think
• 30:29
  IG
• 30:29
  corporates,
• 30:30
  they,
• 30:30
  they
• 30:30
  behave
• 30:31
  well
• 30:31
  in
• 30:31
  the
• 30:31
  same
• 30:31
  environment.
• 30:32
  And
• 30:32
  they
• 30:33
  don't
• 30:33
  have
• 30:33
  that
• 30:33
  prepayment
• 30:34
  side.
• 30:34
  Mm-hmm.
• 30:34
  So
• 30:35
  I
• 30:35
  think
• 30:35
  there's
• 30:35
  ways
• 30:35
  of
• 30:35
  managing
• 30:36
  the
• 30:36
  two
• 30:36
  together
• 30:37
  that
• 30:38
  are,
• 30:38
  are
• 30:38
  ways
• 30:38
  of
• 30:38
  dialing
• 30:39
  your
• 30:39
  risk
• 30:39
  down.
• 30:40
  Um,
• 30:40
  but
• 30:41
  look,
• 30:41
  you
• 30:41
  know,
• 30:41
  mortgages
• 30:42
  got
• 30:42
  very
• 30:42
  tight
• 30:42
  on
• 30:43
  that
• 30:43
  GSC
• 30:43
  announcement
• 30:44
  that
• 30:44
  President
• 30:44
  Trump
• 30:44
  did,
• 30:45
  and
• 30:45
  it
• 30:45
  lasted
• 30:46
  like
• 30:46
  two
• 30:46
  days
• 30:47
  and
• 30:47
  we
• 30:47
  gave
• 30:47
  it
• 30:47
  all
• 30:47
  back
• 30:48
  because
• 30:48
  everybody's
• 30:49
  like,
• 30:49
  yeah,
• 30:49
  there's
• 30:50
  really
• 30:50
  nothing
• 30:50
  there.
• 30:51
  Right.
• 30:51
  Um,
• 30:52
  so
• 30:52
  I
• 30:52
  think
• 30:52
  a
• 30:52
  bigger
• 30:53
  concern
• 30:53
  still
• 30:53
  that
• 30:53
  overhangs
• 30:54
  the
• 30:54
  agency
• 30:55
  market
• 30:55
  is
• 30:55
  what
• 30:55
  happens
• 30:56
  with
• 30:56
  Fannie
• 30:56
  and
• 30:56
  Freddie.
• 30:57
  Are
• 30:57
  they
• 30:57
  gonna,
• 30:58
  you
• 30:58
  know,
• 30:58
  make
• 30:58
  'em
• 30:58
  public?
• 30:59
  Is
• 30:59
  it
• 30:59
  gonna
• 30:59
  be
• 30:59
  some
• 30:59
  quasi
• 31:00
  public
• 31:00
  private
• 31:01
  thing?
• 31:01
  And
• 31:02
  I
• 31:02
  say,
• 31:02
  who
• 31:02
  knows
• 31:03
  still
• 31:03
  also
• 31:04
  why
• 31:04
  I,
• 31:05
  I
• 31:05
  I
• 31:06
  always
• 31:06
  ask,
• 31:06
  why,
• 31:06
  why
• 31:07
  would
• 31:07
  you
• 31:07
  do
• 31:07
  this?
• 31:07
  And
• 31:08
  it
• 31:08
  doesn't
• 31:08
  make
• 31:08
  sense.
• 31:08
  'cause
• 31:09
  I
• 31:09
  think
• 31:09
  that
• 31:09
  actually
• 31:10
  could
• 31:10
  potentially
• 31:11
  increase
• 31:11
  borrowing
• 31:12
  costs.
• 31:13
  That
• 31:13
  doesn't
• 31:13
  sound
• 31:13
  like
• 31:13
  someone
• 31:14
  trying
• 31:14
  to
• 31:14
  solve
• 31:14
  an
• 31:14
  affordability
• 31:15
  crisis.
• 31:16
  Yeah,
• 31:16
  right.
• 31:16
  Exactly.
• 31:17
  So
• 31:17
  anyway,
• 31:18
  I,
• 31:18
  I
• 31:18
  do
• 31:18
  think
• 31:18
  that's
• 31:18
  a
• 31:19
  attractive
• 31:19
  part
• 31:19
  of
• 31:19
  the
• 31:19
  market
• 31:20
  that's
• 31:20
  not
• 31:20
  owned
• 31:20
  enough
• 31:21
  across
• 31:22
  folks
• 31:22
  as
• 31:22
  well.
• 31:22
  And
• 31:22
  I
• 31:22
  think,
• 31:23
  um,
• 31:24
  there's
• 31:24
  just
• 31:24
  ways
• 31:24
  of
• 31:24
  executing
• 31:25
  those
• 31:25
  trades
• 31:25
  I
• 31:25
  think
• 31:25
  are,
• 31:25
  are,
• 31:26
  are
• 31:26
  very
• 31:26
  interesting
• 31:27
  today.
• 31:27
  That
• 31:28
  you
• 31:28
  can
• 31:28
  mitigate
• 31:28
  a
• 31:28
  lot
• 31:28
  of
• 31:28
  that
• 31:29
  risk.
• 31:29
  I
• 31:30
  feel
• 31:30
  as,
• 31:30
  I'm
• 31:30
  glad
• 31:31
  you
• 31:31
  brought
• 31:31
  up
• 31:31
  Freddy
• 31:32
  and
• 31:32
  Fran
• 31:32
  Fannie.
• 31:33
  Um,
• 31:34
  it
• 31:34
  feels
• 31:34
  as
• 31:34
  if
• 31:34
  that's
• 31:35
  been
• 31:35
  an
• 31:35
  issue
• 31:36
  and
• 31:36
  a
• 31:36
  talking
• 31:37
  point
• 31:37
  for
• 31:37
  years.
• 31:38
  What
• 31:38
  to
• 31:38
  do
• 31:38
  with
• 31:38
  them?
• 31:39
  Well,
• 31:39
  I,
• 31:40
  well
• 31:40
  I
• 31:40
  think
• 31:41
  it
• 31:41
  comes
• 31:41
  back
• 31:41
  to
• 31:41
  why
• 31:42
  did
• 31:42
  we
• 31:42
  let
• 31:42
  'em
• 31:42
  be
• 31:42
  what
• 31:42
  they
• 31:42
  were
• 31:43
  in
• 31:43
  the
• 31:43
  early
• 31:43
  two
• 31:43
  thousands.
• 31:44
  Um,
• 31:44
  um,
• 31:45
  I
• 31:45
  worked
• 31:45
  for
• 31:45
  a
• 31:46
  guy
• 31:46
  that
• 31:46
  used
• 31:46
  to
• 31:46
  call
• 31:46
  'em
• 31:46
  the
• 31:46
  biggest
• 31:46
  hedge
• 31:47
  funds
• 31:47
  in
• 31:47
  the
• 31:47
  world.
• 31:48
  They
• 31:48
  get
• 31:48
  to
• 31:48
  borrow
• 31:48
  at
• 31:48
  agency
• 31:49
  rates
• 31:49
  and
• 31:49
  they
• 31:49
  lever
• 31:50
  up
• 31:50
  a
• 31:50
  mortgage
• 31:50
  portfolio
• 31:51
  and
• 31:51
  they,
• 31:51
  they
• 31:52
  don't
• 31:52
  know
• 31:52
  how
• 31:52
  to
• 31:52
  manage
• 31:52
  the
• 31:52
  convexity
• 31:53
  and
• 31:53
  they'd
• 31:53
  screw
• 31:53
  it
• 31:54
  all
• 31:54
  up
• 31:54
  and
• 31:55
  they'd
• 31:55
  still
• 31:55
  make
• 31:55
  profits,
• 31:56
  you
• 31:56
  know.
• 31:56
  But,
• 31:56
  um.
• 31:57
  Trump
• 31:57
  has
• 31:58
  been
• 31:58
  on
• 31:58
  this
• 31:58
  from
• 31:58
  his
• 31:58
  first,
• 31:59
  first
• 31:59
  campaign
• 31:59
  or
• 32:00
  for
• 32:00
  his
• 32:00
  first
• 32:00
  administration.
• 32:01
  He,
• 32:01
  he,
• 32:01
  he
• 32:01
  thinks
• 32:02
  that
• 32:02
  they
• 32:02
  should
• 32:02
  be
• 32:02
  public.
• 32:03
  Um,
• 32:04
  you
• 32:04
  know,
• 32:04
  and
• 32:04
  so
• 32:05
  I,
• 32:05
  I
• 32:05
  don't
• 32:05
  know.
• 32:06
  Or,
• 32:06
  or
• 32:06
  I
• 32:06
  guess
• 32:06
  they
• 32:06
  should
• 32:07
  be
• 32:07
  private.
• 32:07
  They
• 32:07
  should
• 32:07
  be,
• 32:07
  they
• 32:07
  should
• 32:08
  trade
• 32:08
  in
• 32:08
  the
• 32:08
  public
• 32:08
  markets.
• 32:09
  What
• 32:09
  I
• 32:09
  was
• 32:09
  thinking,
• 32:09
  um,
• 32:10
  but
• 32:10
  I
• 32:10
  don't
• 32:11
  understand
• 32:11
  why,
• 32:12
  and
• 32:12
  the
• 32:12
  criticism
• 32:13
  is
• 32:13
  that,
• 32:14
  oh,
• 32:14
  why,
• 32:15
  you
• 32:15
  know,
• 32:16
  like
• 32:16
  Fed
• 32:16
  bo
• 32:16
  these
• 32:16
  mortgages,
• 32:17
  they
• 32:17
  juiced
• 32:18
  house
• 32:18
  prices,
• 32:19
  all
• 32:19
  that
• 32:19
  stuff.
• 32:19
  Well,
• 32:20
  they
• 32:20
  did
• 32:20
  that
• 32:20
  in
• 32:20
  oh
• 32:20
  eight
• 32:21
  because
• 32:21
  there
• 32:21
  was
• 32:21
  no
• 32:21
  bid.
• 32:22
  And
• 32:22
  by
• 32:23
  the
• 32:23
  way,
• 32:23
  housing
• 32:23
  still
• 32:23
  fell
• 32:24
  50
• 32:24
  to
• 32:24
  60%
• 32:25
  depending
• 32:25
  on
• 32:25
  your
• 32:25
  region,
• 32:26
  right?
• 32:26
  So,
• 32:27
  um,
• 32:28
  the
• 32:28
  Fed
• 32:28
  buying
• 32:29
  mortgages
• 32:29
  didn't
• 32:29
  distort
• 32:30
  the
• 32:30
  mortgage
• 32:30
  market.
• 32:31
  Um,
• 32:31
  they
• 32:31
  were
• 32:32
  just,
• 32:32
  what
• 32:32
  happened
• 32:33
  when
• 32:33
  the
• 32:33
  Fed
• 32:33
  first
• 32:33
  did
• 32:34
  it?
• 32:34
  When
• 32:34
  Bernanke
• 32:34
  did
• 32:35
  it,
• 32:35
  he
• 32:35
  didn't
• 32:35
  wanna
• 32:35
  be
• 32:35
  Japan
• 32:36
  and
• 32:36
  own
• 32:36
  too
• 32:36
  much
• 32:37
  of
• 32:37
  the
• 32:37
  treasury
• 32:37
  market.
• 32:38
  Now,
• 32:39
  I
• 32:39
  think
• 32:39
  if
• 32:39
  you
• 32:39
  ask
• 32:40
  the
• 32:40
  Fed
• 32:40
  Governors,
• 32:40
  you
• 32:40
  even
• 32:41
  ask
• 32:41
  Wars,
• 32:41
  they
• 32:41
  would
• 32:41
  rather
• 32:42
  own
• 32:42
  treasuries
• 32:43
  than
• 32:43
  mortgages
• 32:44
  because
• 32:44
  they
• 32:44
  had
• 32:44
  at
• 32:44
  least
• 32:45
  controls
• 32:45
  the
• 32:45
  interest.
• 32:46
  So
• 32:46
  don't
• 32:46
  forget
• 32:46
  this,
• 32:46
  Ron.
• 32:46
  I'd
• 32:47
  like
• 32:47
  to
• 32:47
  remind
• 32:47
  people
• 32:47
  of
• 32:48
  this
• 32:48
  because
• 32:48
  I
• 32:49
  think
• 32:49
  it
• 32:49
  gets
• 32:49
  lost
• 32:49
  a
• 32:49
  lot.
• 32:50
  Every
• 32:50
  single
• 32:51
  treasury
• 32:51
  that
• 32:51
  sits
• 32:51
  on
• 32:51
  the
• 32:52
  Fed's
• 32:52
  balance
• 32:52
  sheet,
• 32:53
  because
• 32:54
  Fed
• 32:54
  rebates,
• 32:55
  treasury.
• 32:56
  Those
• 32:56
  are
• 32:56
  financed
• 32:56
  at
• 32:57
  zero.
• 32:58
  You
• 32:58
  know
• 32:58
  what's
• 32:58
  not
• 32:59
  financed
• 32:59
  at
• 32:59
  zero?
• 32:59
  The
• 32:59
  mortgage
• 33:00
  is
• 33:00
  'cause
• 33:00
  the
• 33:00
  mortgage
• 33:01
  is
• 33:01
  in
• 33:01
  the
• 33:01
  pool.
• 33:01
  They're
• 33:01
  just,
• 33:02
  they're
• 33:02
  just
• 33:02
  putting
• 33:02
  that
• 33:02
  back
• 33:03
  into
• 33:03
  the
• 33:03
  income
• 33:03
  of
• 33:03
  the
• 33:03
  treasury
• 33:04
  account.
• 33:05
  So
• 33:05
  there
• 33:05
  is
• 33:05
  something
• 33:06
  special
• 33:06
  about
• 33:06
  owning
• 33:07
  your
• 33:07
  own
• 33:07
  treasuries,
• 33:07
  is
• 33:08
  that
• 33:08
  because
• 33:09
  of
• 33:09
  the
• 33:09
  mechanism
• 33:09
  there
• 33:10
  is
• 33:10
  financed
• 33:10
  at
• 33:10
  zero.
• 33:11
  So
• 33:11
  coming
• 33:12
  back
• 33:12
  to
• 33:12
  Fannie
• 33:12
  and
• 33:12
  Freddie
• 33:13
  though,
• 33:14
  is
• 33:14
  that
• 33:15
  if
• 33:15
  we're
• 33:15
  gonna
• 33:15
  increase
• 33:15
  borrow
• 33:16
  cost
• 33:16
  to
• 33:16
  homeowners,
• 33:16
  how
• 33:16
  is
• 33:17
  that
• 33:17
  a
• 33:17
  helpful
• 33:17
  thing?
• 33:18
  Now
• 33:18
  you
• 33:18
  can
• 33:18
  say
• 33:18
  that
• 33:18
  they
• 33:18
  should
• 33:18
  have
• 33:19
  never
• 33:19
  been
• 33:19
  in
• 33:19
  the
• 33:19
  market.
• 33:20
  We've
• 33:20
  done
• 33:21
  it
• 33:21
  for
• 33:21
  50
• 33:21
  years
• 33:22
  roughly.
• 33:22
  Right.
• 33:22
  And
• 33:23
  so
• 33:23
  we'll
• 33:23
  have
• 33:24
  to
• 33:24
  see
• 33:24
  what,
• 33:24
  what
• 33:24
  happens.
• 33:25
  And
• 33:25
  it
• 33:25
  sounds
• 33:26
  like
• 33:26
  they
• 33:26
  may
• 33:26
  just
• 33:26
  sell
• 33:26
  a
• 33:26
  piece
• 33:27
  of
• 33:27
  it,
• 33:28
  but
• 33:28
  that's
• 33:28
  what,
• 33:29
  what
• 33:29
  Fannie
• 33:29
  and
• 33:29
  Freddie
• 33:29
  were
• 33:30
  back
• 33:30
  in
• 33:30
  the
• 33:30
  two
• 33:30
  thousands.
• 33:31
  They
• 33:31
  were
• 33:31
  quasi-public
• 33:32
  and
• 33:32
  private.
• 33:33
  And
• 33:33
  so
• 33:34
  what
• 33:34
  is
• 33:34
  your
• 33:34
  objective?
• 33:35
  Is
• 33:35
  it
• 33:35
  to
• 33:35
  generate
• 33:35
  return
• 33:36
  for
• 33:36
  shareholders?
• 33:37
  That
• 33:37
  doesn't
• 33:37
  sound
• 33:37
  like
• 33:38
  you're
• 33:38
  helping
• 33:38
  affordability.
• 33:39
  It
• 33:39
  sounds
• 33:39
  like
• 33:39
  you're
• 33:40
  maximizing
• 33:40
  profit,
• 33:41
  but
• 33:41
  I,
• 33:41
  I
• 33:41
  don't
• 33:42
  know.
• 33:42
  It's,
• 33:42
  it's
• 33:42
  the
• 33:42
  answer.
• 33:43
  And
• 33:44
  if
• 33:44
  you
• 33:44
  do
• 33:44
  anything
• 33:45
  to
• 33:45
  increase
• 33:46
  the
• 33:46
  cost
• 33:46
  of
• 33:46
  borrowing.
• 33:47
  Uh,
• 33:48
  that
• 33:48
  doesn't
• 33:48
  sound
• 33:48
  very
• 33:48
  popular
• 33:49
  to
• 33:49
  me
• 33:49
  in,
• 33:49
  in,
• 33:50
  in
• 33:50
  the
• 33:50
  US
• 33:50
  populace
• 33:50
  today.
• 33:51
  Yeah.
• 33:52
  No,
• 33:52
  that's
• 33:52
  fantastic.
• 33:53
  It's
• 33:53
  always,
• 33:53
  it
• 33:54
  seems
• 33:54
  like
• 33:54
  it's
• 33:54
  always
• 33:54
  been
• 33:55
  a
• 33:55
  question
• 33:55
  for,
• 33:56
  for
• 33:56
  a
• 33:56
  long
• 33:56
  time.
• 33:57
  Well,
• 33:57
  it's,
• 33:57
  it's
• 33:57
  easy
• 33:57
  target,
• 33:58
  right,
• 33:58
  too.
• 33:58
  Yeah.
• 33:58
  'cause
• 33:58
  it
• 33:59
  feels
• 33:59
  like
• 33:59
  it's
• 33:59
  being
• 33:59
  manipulated.
• 34:00
  There's
• 34:00
  something
• 34:00
  happening
• 34:01
  there.
• 34:01
  But
• 34:01
  remember
• 34:02
  for
• 34:02
  from
• 34:02
  2007
• 34:04
  till
• 34:04
  like
• 34:04
  20
• 34:05
  11,
• 34:05
  20
• 34:05
  12,
• 34:06
  that
• 34:06
  was
• 34:06
  the
• 34:07
  only
• 34:07
  game
• 34:07
  in
• 34:07
  town.
• 34:08
  There
• 34:08
  was
• 34:08
  no
• 34:08
  private
• 34:09
  lending
• 34:09
  and
• 34:09
  mortgages.
• 34:10
  The
• 34:10
  only
• 34:10
  way
• 34:10
  it
• 34:10
  was
• 34:10
  happening
• 34:11
  is
• 34:11
  that
• 34:11
  if
• 34:11
  it
• 34:11
  was
• 34:12
  Fannie
• 34:12
  Freddie
• 34:12
  eligible.
• 34:13
  To
• 34:13
  be
• 34:14
  able
• 34:14
  to
• 34:14
  put
• 34:14
  in
• 34:14
  those
• 34:14
  conforming
• 34:15
  pools
• 34:15
  to
• 34:15
  do
• 34:15
  it.
• 34:16
  And
• 34:16
  so
• 34:16
  that
• 34:17
  market
• 34:17
  had
• 34:17
  to
• 34:17
  reopen
• 34:18
  in
• 34:18
  like,
• 34:18
  I
• 34:18
  think
• 34:19
  it
• 34:19
  was
• 34:19
  like
• 34:19
  20
• 34:19
  12,
• 34:19
  20
• 34:20
  13,
• 34:20
  we
• 34:20
  started
• 34:20
  seeing
• 34:21
  non
• 34:21
  agencies
• 34:21
  come
• 34:22
  back.
• 34:22
  Mm-hmm.
• 34:22
  And
• 34:22
  restructure
• 34:23
  of
• 34:23
  this
• 34:23
  stuff.
• 34:23
  So,
• 34:24
  you
• 34:24
  know,
• 34:25
  if
• 34:25
  you
• 34:25
  want
• 34:25
  to
• 34:25
  know
• 34:25
  where
• 34:25
  it
• 34:25
  should
• 34:26
  trade,
• 34:26
  go
• 34:26
  to
• 34:27
  the
• 34:27
  non-agency
• 34:27
  market.
• 34:28
  That
• 34:28
  means
• 34:28
  you're
• 34:29
  gonna
• 34:29
  slap
• 34:29
  on,
• 34:29
  depending
• 34:30
  on
• 34:30
  the
• 34:30
  capital
• 34:30
  structure,
• 34:31
  2020
• 34:32
  to
• 34:32
  like
• 34:32
  70
• 34:33
  basis
• 34:33
  points,
• 34:34
  you
• 34:34
  know?
• 34:34
  So,
• 34:35
  and
• 34:35
  by
• 34:35
  the
• 34:35
  way,
• 34:36
  another
• 34:36
  thing.
• 34:37
  We
• 34:37
  already
• 34:37
  have
• 34:38
  the
• 34:38
  mechanism
• 34:38
  to
• 34:38
  bail
• 34:39
  out
• 34:39
  the
• 34:39
  taxpayer.
• 34:40
  On
• 34:40
  Friday
• 34:40
  and
• 34:40
  Friday,
• 34:41
  we
• 34:41
  created
• 34:41
  these,
• 34:42
  these
• 34:42
  securities
• 34:42
  called
• 34:42
  credit
• 34:43
  risk
• 34:43
  transfers
• 34:44
  back
• 34:44
  in
• 34:44
  the,
• 34:45
  in
• 34:45
  the
• 34:45
  mid-teens.
• 34:46
  Uh,
• 34:46
  and
• 34:46
  the
• 34:47
  reason
• 34:47
  for
• 34:47
  that
• 34:47
  was
• 34:48
  that
• 34:48
  the
• 34:48
  taxpayers
• 34:49
  shouldn't
• 34:49
  be
• 34:49
  on
• 34:49
  the
• 34:49
  hook.
• 34:50
  By
• 34:50
  the
• 34:50
  way,
• 34:50
  those
• 34:50
  things
• 34:51
  are
• 34:51
  extremely
• 34:52
  well
• 34:52
  bid.
• 34:52
  They
• 34:52
  trade
• 34:53
  very
• 34:53
  well.
• 34:54
  And
• 34:54
  there's
• 34:54
  will
• 34:55
  investors
• 34:55
  willing
• 34:56
  to
• 34:56
  go
• 34:56
  out
• 34:56
  there
• 34:57
  and
• 34:57
  support
• 34:57
  that.
• 34:58
  And
• 34:58
  these
• 34:58
  are
• 34:58
  like,
• 34:59
  they're
• 34:59
  not
• 34:59
  technically
• 35:00
  first
• 35:00
  loss
• 35:00
  pieces.
• 35:00
  They're
• 35:01
  second
• 35:01
  loss,
• 35:01
  but
• 35:02
  they're
• 35:02
  very
• 35:02
  thin.
• 35:03
  And
• 35:03
  so
• 35:03
  we
• 35:04
  already
• 35:04
  have
• 35:04
  the
• 35:04
  mechanism
• 35:05
  to
• 35:05
  protect
• 35:05
  the
• 35:05
  to
• 35:06
  the
• 35:06
  taxpayer.
• 35:07
  And
• 35:08
  it's
• 35:08
  already,
• 35:09
  so
• 35:09
  that's
• 35:09
  what
• 35:09
  I
• 35:09
  don't
• 35:09
  understand,
• 35:10
  like
• 35:10
  mm-hmm.
• 35:10
  I
• 35:10
  come
• 35:10
  back
• 35:11
  to
• 35:11
  why.
• 35:11
  But
• 35:12
  if
• 35:12
  I
• 35:12
  sat
• 35:12
  around
• 35:12
  and
• 35:12
  thought
• 35:13
  about
• 35:13
  this
• 35:13
  administration
• 35:14
  and
• 35:14
  why
• 35:14
  I
• 35:14
  would
• 35:14
  just
• 35:15
  lose
• 35:15
  brain
• 35:15
  cells,
• 35:15
  right?
• 35:16
  I,
• 35:16
  I,
• 35:16
  I
• 35:16
  can't
• 35:16
  ever
• 35:17
  figure
• 35:17
  it
• 35:17
  out.
• 35:17
  Yeah.
• 35:17
  Jeffrey,
• 35:18
  a
• 35:18
  lot
• 35:18
  of
• 35:18
  people
• 35:19
  ask
• 35:19
  me,
• 35:19
  why,
• 35:20
  why,
• 35:21
  Ryan,
• 35:21
  why,
• 35:22
  why
• 35:22
  are
• 35:22
  you
• 35:22
  doing
• 35:23
  that?
• 35:23
  Yeah.
• 35:23
  I
• 35:23
  feel
• 35:23
  like
• 35:23
  a
• 35:23
  2-year-old,
• 35:24
  right.
• 35:24
  Why?
• 35:24
  Right.
• 35:24
  I'm
• 35:24
  going
• 35:25
  through
• 35:25
  my
• 35:25
  why
• 35:25
  stage
• 35:25
  of
• 35:25
  life
• 35:26
  right
• 35:26
  now.
• 35:26
  But
• 35:27
  I,
• 35:27
  I
• 35:27
  think
• 35:27
  that
• 35:28
  coming
• 35:28
  back
• 35:29
  to
• 35:29
  it,
• 35:29
  it's
• 35:29
  that
• 35:30
  I,
• 35:30
  I
• 35:30
  think
• 35:30
  that
• 35:31
  the
• 35:31
  administration
• 35:31
  thinks
• 35:32
  it's
• 35:32
  better
• 35:32
  off,
• 35:32
  and
• 35:32
  I,
• 35:32
  I
• 35:33
  don't
• 35:33
  think
• 35:33
  they're
• 35:33
  doing
• 35:33
  it
• 35:33
  with
• 35:33
  mal
• 35:34
  intent.
• 35:34
  Um,
• 35:35
  but
• 35:35
  you
• 35:35
  know,
• 35:35
  it
• 35:36
  has
• 35:36
  knock
• 35:36
  on
• 35:36
  effects
• 35:37
  and,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  I
• 35:37
  just,
• 35:38
  I
• 35:38
  can't
• 35:39
  see
• 35:39
  the
• 35:39
  societal
• 35:39
  benefit.
• 35:40
  At
• 35:40
  this
• 35:41
  point
• 35:41
  because
• 35:41
  we
• 35:41
  have
• 35:42
  that
• 35:42
  mechanism
• 35:42
  to
• 35:42
  protect
• 35:43
  the
• 35:43
  taxpayer
• 35:43
  already
• 35:44
  and
• 35:45
  the
• 35:45
  market
• 35:45
  trades
• 35:45
  well.
• 35:46
  Yeah.
• 35:47
  Real
• 35:47
  quickly,
• 35:47
  Jeffrey,
• 35:48
  too,
• 35:49
  emerging
• 35:49
  markets,
• 35:50
  whether
• 35:50
  it's
• 35:50
  equities
• 35:51
  or
• 35:51
  fixed
• 35:52
  income
• 35:52
  debt,
• 35:53
  they've
• 35:54
  had
• 35:54
  a
• 35:54
  fantastic
• 35:55
  year
• 35:55
  outperformed
• 35:56
  regardless
• 35:57
  of
• 35:57
  asset
• 35:57
  class.
• 35:59
  This
• 35:59
  might
• 35:59
  be
• 36:00
  more
• 36:00
  of
• 36:00
  a
• 36:00
  question
• 36:00
  for
• 36:00
  the
• 36:01
  US
• 36:01
  dollar,
• 36:02
  but
• 36:02
  do
• 36:02
  you
• 36:02
  think
• 36:02
  that's
• 36:03
  another,
• 36:03
  is
• 36:03
  still
• 36:03
  attractive
• 36:04
  there,
• 36:05
  moving
• 36:05
  forward?
• 36:06
  Or
• 36:06
  do
• 36:06
  you
• 36:06
  think
• 36:06
  it's
• 36:06
  gonna
• 36:07
  run
• 36:07
  its
• 36:07
  course?
• 36:07
  Some
• 36:07
  definitely.
• 36:08
  I
• 36:08
  think
• 36:08
  it's
• 36:09
  definitely
• 36:09
  attractive
• 36:10
  and,
• 36:10
  uh,
• 36:10
  we,
• 36:10
  we've
• 36:10
  been
• 36:11
  buyers
• 36:11
  of
• 36:11
  it.
• 36:11
  We
• 36:12
  started
• 36:12
  buying
• 36:12
  it,
• 36:12
  you
• 36:12
  know,
• 36:12
  kind
• 36:13
  of
• 36:13
  early
• 36:13
  in
• 36:13
  the
• 36:13
  summer
• 36:13
  last
• 36:14
  year,
• 36:14
  so
• 36:14
  we
• 36:14
  were
• 36:14
  a
• 36:14
  little
• 36:14
  late
• 36:15
  to
• 36:15
  the
• 36:15
  trade.
• 36:15
  I'll,
• 36:15
  we'll
• 36:15
  admit
• 36:16
  it.
• 36:16
  Um,
• 36:17
  but
• 36:18
  it's
• 36:18
  something
• 36:19
  that
• 36:19
  we
• 36:19
  continue
• 36:19
  to
• 36:19
  add
• 36:20
  and
• 36:20
  I
• 36:20
  think
• 36:20
  with
• 36:21
  this
• 36:21
  turmoil
• 36:21
  right
• 36:21
  now
• 36:22
  that's
• 36:22
  going
• 36:22
  on,
• 36:22
  it's,
• 36:23
  it's
• 36:23
  a,
• 36:23
  it's
• 36:24
  becoming
• 36:24
  a
• 36:24
  little
• 36:24
  more
• 36:25
  interesting.
• 36:25
  And
• 36:25
  here's
• 36:26
  the
• 36:26
  difference
• 36:26
  is
• 36:26
  that
• 36:27
  yes,
• 36:27
  it's
• 36:27
  a
• 36:27
  dollar
• 36:28
  trade.
• 36:28
  At
• 36:29
  the
• 36:29
  end
• 36:29
  of
• 36:29
  the
• 36:29
  day,
• 36:29
  you're
• 36:29
  buying
• 36:30
  this
• 36:30
  to
• 36:30
  bet
• 36:31
  against
• 36:31
  the
• 36:31
  dollar,
• 36:32
  but
• 36:33
  to
• 36:33
  me,
• 36:33
  it's
• 36:34
  the
• 36:34
  best
• 36:34
  way
• 36:34
  of
• 36:34
  betting
• 36:35
  against
• 36:35
  the
• 36:35
  dollar
• 36:35
  right
• 36:36
  now.
• 36:36
  And
• 36:36
  so
• 36:37
  coming
• 36:37
  into
• 36:38
  before
• 36:38
  this,
• 36:39
  let's
• 36:39
  call
• 36:39
  war,
• 36:40
  um,
• 36:40
  you
• 36:41
  had
• 36:41
  every
• 36:41
  tailwind,
• 36:42
  you
• 36:42
  had
• 36:42
  higher
• 36:43
  yields,
• 36:44
  you
• 36:44
  had
• 36:44
  kind
• 36:44
  of
• 36:45
  better
• 36:45
  fiscal
• 36:45
  positions,
• 36:46
  you
• 36:46
  had
• 36:47
  commodity
• 36:47
  producers,
• 36:48
  whether
• 36:48
  it's
• 36:48
  copper,
• 36:49
  nickel,
• 36:49
  you
• 36:49
  had
• 36:49
  the
• 36:49
  gold
• 36:50
  miner.
• 36:50
  I
• 36:50
  mean,
• 36:50
  there
• 36:51
  was
• 36:51
  every,
• 36:52
  every
• 36:52
  confluence
• 36:53
  of
• 36:53
  things
• 36:53
  was
• 36:53
  in
• 36:54
  a
• 36:54
  positive
• 36:54
  manner.
• 36:55
  Um,
• 36:56
  and
• 36:56
  now
• 36:56
  you
• 36:56
  kinda
• 36:56
  hit
• 36:56
  a
• 36:56
  little
• 36:56
  speed
• 36:57
  bump.
• 36:57
  But
• 36:58
  I
• 36:58
  think
• 36:58
  that
• 36:58
  the
• 36:58
  difference
• 36:59
  here
• 36:59
  is
• 36:59
  I,
• 36:59
  if
• 37:00
  I
• 37:00
  bet
• 37:00
  against,
• 37:00
  let's
• 37:01
  say
• 37:01
  the
• 37:01
  Euro
• 37:01
  or
• 37:02
  I
• 37:02
  bet
• 37:02
  against
• 37:02
  the
• 37:02
  yen
• 37:03
  or
• 37:03
  the
• 37:03
  pound,
• 37:05
  I
• 37:05
  have
• 37:05
  an
• 37:05
  issue
• 37:06
  because
• 37:06
  our
• 37:06
  rates
• 37:06
  are
• 37:06
  too
• 37:06
  high
• 37:07
  relative
• 37:07
  to
• 37:08
  their,
• 37:08
  so
• 37:09
  it's
• 37:09
  hard
• 37:09
  for
• 37:09
  me
• 37:09
  to
• 37:09
  see
• 37:10
  why
• 37:10
  the
• 37:10
  dollar
• 37:11
  should
• 37:11
  go
• 37:11
  down
• 37:11
  against
• 37:12
  them
• 37:12
  until
• 37:13
  we
• 37:13
  get
• 37:13
  more
• 37:13
  yield
• 37:14
  convergence,
• 37:14
  meaning
• 37:15
  that
• 37:15
  there,
• 37:15
  there's
• 37:16
  either
• 37:16
  come
• 37:16
  up
• 37:16
  or,
• 37:16
  or
• 37:17
  it's
• 37:17
  come
• 37:17
  down,
• 37:17
  we
• 37:17
  meet
• 37:17
  in
• 37:18
  the
• 37:18
  middle.
• 37:18
  So
• 37:19
  to
• 37:20
  me,
• 37:20
  the
• 37:20
  reason
• 37:21
  the
• 37:21
  emerging
• 37:21
  market
• 37:21
  trade
• 37:22
  is
• 37:22
  a
• 37:22
  better
• 37:22
  way,
• 37:23
  one
• 37:23
  is
• 37:23
  I
• 37:23
  think
• 37:24
  that
• 37:24
  there's
• 37:24
  much
• 37:24
  more
• 37:25
  room
• 37:25
  to
• 37:25
  run
• 37:25
  in
• 37:25
  the
• 37:25
  dollar
• 37:26
  there.
• 37:26
  But
• 37:26
  while
• 37:27
  I
• 37:27
  wait,
• 37:28
  I
• 37:28
  get
• 37:28
  more,
• 37:28
  I
• 37:28
  get
• 37:28
  more
• 37:29
  yield.
• 37:30
  So
• 37:30
  where
• 37:30
  if
• 37:30
  I
• 37:30
  build
• 37:31
  a
• 37:31
  developed
• 37:31
  world
• 37:31
  portfolio,
• 37:32
  I'm
• 37:32
  giving
• 37:33
  up
• 37:33
  a
• 37:33
  hundred
• 37:33
  to
• 37:34
  150
• 37:34
  basis
• 37:34
  points
• 37:35
  to
• 37:35
  US
• 37:35
  rates.
• 37:36
  I'm
• 37:36
  picking
• 37:37
  up
• 37:37
  200
• 37:38
  or
• 37:38
  two
• 37:38
  50
• 37:39
  relative
• 37:40
  to
• 37:40
  treasury.
• 37:40
  So
• 37:41
  I
• 37:41
  get
• 37:41
  paid
• 37:41
  for
• 37:42
  the
• 37:42
  trade.
• 37:42
  Now
• 37:43
  I
• 37:43
  know
• 37:44
  I
• 37:44
  get
• 37:44
  more
• 37:44
  volatility
• 37:45
  though,
• 37:45
  right?
• 37:46
  But,
• 37:46
  uh,
• 37:46
  I
• 37:46
  do
• 37:47
  think
• 37:47
  that
• 37:47
  this
• 37:47
  is
• 37:47
  a,
• 37:48
  a
• 37:48
  secular
• 37:48
  trend
• 37:49
  that
• 37:49
  one
• 37:49
  wants
• 37:49
  to
• 37:49
  play
• 37:50
  on.
• 37:50
  And
• 37:50
  if
• 37:50
  we're
• 37:51
  gonna
• 37:51
  continue
• 37:51
  to
• 37:52
  print,
• 37:52
  you
• 37:52
  know,
• 37:52
  a
• 37:52
  trillion
• 37:53
  dollars
• 37:53
  every
• 37:53
  five
• 37:54
  months.
• 37:54
  Um,
• 37:55
  I
• 37:55
  think
• 37:55
  the,
• 37:55
  the
• 37:55
  direction
• 37:56
  of
• 37:56
  the
• 37:56
  dollar
• 37:56
  is
• 37:56
  still
• 37:56
  down.
• 37:57
  Yeah,
• 37:57
  no,
• 37:58
  that's
• 37:58
  fantastic.
• 37:59
  And
• 38:00
  a
• 38:00
  lot
• 38:00
  of
• 38:00
  people
• 38:00
  are
• 38:00
  probably
• 38:00
  underexposed
• 38:01
  there
• 38:02
  to
• 38:02
  emerging
• 38:02
  markets.
• 38:03
  They
• 38:03
  left
• 38:03
  a
• 38:03
  lot
• 38:03
  of,
• 38:04
  you
• 38:04
  know,
• 38:05
  diversification's
• 38:06
  a
• 38:06
  big
• 38:06
  theme.
• 38:07
  Well,
• 38:07
  it
• 38:07
  didn't
• 38:07
  work
• 38:07
  for,
• 38:08
  it
• 38:08
  didn't
• 38:08
  work
• 38:08
  for
• 38:08
  a
• 38:08
  decade.
• 38:09
  And
• 38:09
  that,
• 38:09
  that's,
• 38:09
  that's
• 38:09
  the
• 38:10
  issue.
• 38:10
  Right.
• 38:10
  And
• 38:10
  so,
• 38:11
  you
• 38:11
  know,
• 38:11
  once
• 38:12
  you,
• 38:12
  once
• 38:12
  you
• 38:12
  get
• 38:13
  in,
• 38:13
  you
• 38:13
  say,
• 38:13
  that's
• 38:13
  never
• 38:13
  gonna
• 38:14
  work
• 38:14
  again.
• 38:14
  What
• 38:14
  that
• 38:15
  means
• 38:15
  is
• 38:15
  it's
• 38:15
  about
• 38:16
  to
• 38:16
  work
• 38:16
  instantly.
• 38:17
  Yeah.
• 38:17
  Right.
• 38:17
  Whenever
• 38:18
  you
• 38:18
  hear
• 38:18
  never,
• 38:18
  it
• 38:18
  means
• 38:19
  it's
• 38:19
  gonna
• 38:19
  happen
• 38:20
  instantaneously.
• 38:21
  And
• 38:21
  that's
• 38:22
  where
• 38:22
  we
• 38:22
  all
• 38:22
  were
• 38:22
  with
• 38:23
  US
• 38:23
  equities.
• 38:23
  Right.
• 38:24
  And
• 38:24
  so
• 38:24
  even
• 38:24
  though,
• 38:24
  yeah,
• 38:25
  last
• 38:25
  year
• 38:25
  was
• 38:25
  a
• 38:25
  good
• 38:26
  year
• 38:26
  in
• 38:26
  equities,
• 38:27
  it
• 38:27
  was
• 38:27
  better
• 38:28
  if
• 38:28
  you
• 38:28
  were
• 38:28
  anywhere
• 38:28
  else
• 38:29
  in
• 38:29
  the
• 38:29
  world
• 38:29
  practically.
• 38:30
  Yeah.
• 38:30
  Yeah.
• 38:31
  Fantastic.
• 38:32
  Jeffrey,
• 38:32
  one
• 38:32
  last
• 38:33
  thing.
• 38:33
  We've
• 38:33
  talked
• 38:33
  a
• 38:34
  lot
• 38:34
  about
• 38:35
  a
• 38:35
  lot
• 38:35
  of
• 38:35
  different
• 38:36
  topics.
• 38:36
  What's
• 38:37
  it
• 38:37
  all
• 38:37
  mean?
• 38:38
  Why?
• 38:38
  What's
• 38:38
  it
• 38:39
  all
• 38:39
  mean
• 38:39
  for
• 38:39
  financial
• 38:40
  advisors
• 38:41
  trying
• 38:41
  to
• 38:41
  build
• 38:42
  a
• 38:42
  diversified
• 38:42
  portfolio
• 38:43
  with,
• 38:44
  you
• 38:44
  know,
• 38:44
  fixed
• 38:44
  income
• 38:45
  now
• 38:45
  that.
• 38:46
  Divers
• 38:47
  or
• 38:47
  diversification
• 38:48
  is
• 38:48
  back
• 38:48
  in
• 38:48
  vogue.
• 38:49
  Yeah.
• 38:49
  I
• 38:49
  mean,
• 38:50
  you,
• 38:50
  you
• 38:50
  have
• 38:50
  the
• 38:51
  ability
• 38:51
  to
• 38:51
  offset
• 38:52
  risk
• 38:52
  in
• 38:52
  portfolios
• 38:53
  that
• 38:53
  that's
• 38:53
  what
• 38:53
  it
• 38:53
  comes
• 38:53
  down
• 38:54
  to.
• 38:54
  So
• 38:55
  I
• 38:55
  think
• 38:55
  that,
• 38:55
  you
• 38:55
  know,
• 38:55
  for
• 38:56
  advisors,
• 38:56
  it's
• 38:56
  like,
• 38:57
  don't
• 38:57
  get
• 38:57
  caught
• 38:57
  up
• 38:57
  in
• 38:57
  the
• 38:57
  headlines.
• 38:58
  That's
• 38:58
  what
• 38:58
  always
• 38:58
  tell
• 38:59
  folks.
• 38:59
  Like
• 39:00
  if
• 39:00
  you're,
• 39:00
  if
• 39:00
  you're
• 39:00
  a
• 39:00
  better
• 39:01
  war
• 39:01
  general
• 39:01
  than
• 39:02
  ours,
• 39:02
  then
• 39:02
  go
• 39:02
  do
• 39:03
  it.
• 39:03
  You
• 39:03
  know?
• 39:04
  Um,
• 39:04
  but
• 39:04
  in
• 39:05
  general,
• 39:05
  you,
• 39:05
  you
• 39:05
  can't
• 39:06
  get
• 39:06
  caught
• 39:06
  up
• 39:06
  in
• 39:06
  headlines.
• 39:07
  You
• 39:07
  have
• 39:07
  to
• 39:07
  figure
• 39:07
  out
• 39:07
  what
• 39:08
  fundamentals
• 39:08
  are,
• 39:08
  what
• 39:09
  are
• 39:09
  driving
• 39:09
  things.
• 39:10
  And
• 39:10
  you
• 39:10
  know,
• 39:10
  look,
• 39:11
  we
• 39:11
  go
• 39:11
  through
• 39:11
  different
• 39:12
  political
• 39:12
  regimes.
• 39:13
  We
• 39:13
  go
• 39:13
  through
• 39:13
  different
• 39:14
  macro
• 39:14
  regimes
• 39:15
  and.
• 39:16
  Right
• 39:16
  now
• 39:17
  the
• 39:17
  setup
• 39:17
  is,
• 39:17
  is
• 39:17
  a
• 39:18
  way
• 39:18
  where
• 39:18
  you
• 39:19
  can
• 39:19
  still
• 39:19
  get
• 39:19
  income
• 39:19
  on
• 39:19
  this
• 39:20
  side.
• 39:20
  Um,
• 39:21
  bond
• 39:21
  portfolios
• 39:21
  do
• 39:22
  outstrip
• 39:22
  inflation
• 39:23
  in
• 39:23
  my
• 39:23
  viewpoint
• 39:23
  right
• 39:24
  now.
• 39:24
  Um,
• 39:25
  and
• 39:25
  you
• 39:25
  know,
• 39:25
  you
• 39:25
  still
• 39:26
  have
• 39:26
  a
• 39:26
  labor
• 39:26
  market
• 39:27
  that's
• 39:27
  holding
• 39:27
  up
• 39:27
  well
• 39:28
  enough
• 39:28
  to
• 39:28
  support
• 39:28
  the
• 39:28
  consumer.
• 39:29
  So
• 39:30
  all
• 39:30
  those
• 39:30
  things
• 39:30
  say
• 39:30
  that
• 39:31
  rates
• 39:31
  should
• 39:31
  be
• 39:31
  somewhat
• 39:32
  range
• 39:32
  bound.
• 39:32
  Probably.
• 39:33
  You're
• 39:33
  gonna
• 39:33
  get
• 39:33
  some
• 39:33
  wiggles
• 39:33
  and
• 39:34
  jiggles
• 39:34
  here,
• 39:35
  but
• 39:35
  at
• 39:35
  the
• 39:35
  end
• 39:36
  of
• 39:36
  it,
• 39:36
  you
• 39:36
  gotta
• 39:36
  think
• 39:37
  about
• 39:37
  what
• 39:37
  you
• 39:37
  want.
• 39:38
  And
• 39:38
  what
• 39:39
  I
• 39:39
  think
• 39:39
  about
• 39:39
  is
• 39:39
  one
• 39:39
  of
• 39:40
  the
• 39:40
  bigger
• 39:40
  risk
• 39:40
  out
• 39:40
  there,
• 39:41
  and
• 39:41
  I
• 39:41
  don't
• 39:41
  think
• 39:41
  it
• 39:41
  would
• 39:41
  be,
• 39:41
  it
• 39:42
  would
• 39:42
  shock
• 39:42
  you.
• 39:43
  But
• 39:43
  it's
• 39:43
  the
• 39:44
  AI
• 39:44
  tech
• 39:44
  trade,
• 39:45
  and
• 39:45
  you
• 39:46
  know
• 39:46
  what,
• 39:46
  a
• 39:46
  lot
• 39:46
  of
• 39:46
  that
• 39:46
  doesn't
• 39:47
  exist
• 39:47
  in
• 39:47
  the
• 39:47
  bond
• 39:48
  world.
• 39:48
  And
• 39:48
  so
• 39:49
  we
• 39:49
  can
• 39:49
  get
• 39:49
  things
• 39:50
  that,
• 39:50
  you
• 39:50
  know,
• 39:50
  if
• 39:50
  you're
• 39:50
  talking
• 39:51
  about
• 39:51
  mortgages,
• 39:51
  you're
• 39:51
  talking
• 39:52
  about,
• 39:52
  you
• 39:52
  know,
• 39:53
  commercial
• 39:53
  real
• 39:53
  estate,
• 39:53
  you're
• 39:54
  talking
• 39:54
  about
• 39:54
  different
• 39:54
  things,
• 39:54
  emerging
• 39:55
  markets,
• 39:56
  they're
• 39:56
  not
• 39:56
  really
• 39:56
  exposed
• 39:57
  to
• 39:57
  these
• 39:57
  risks.
• 39:57
  Like,
• 39:58
  yeah,
• 39:58
  the
• 39:58
  tail
• 39:59
  will
• 39:59
  wag
• 39:59
  the
• 39:59
  dog
• 39:59
  at
• 39:59
  some
• 39:59
  point,
• 40:00
  but
• 40:01
  I
• 40:01
  think
• 40:01
  that,
• 40:01
  you
• 40:01
  know,
• 40:02
  trying
• 40:02
  to
• 40:02
  double
• 40:03
  down
• 40:03
  on
• 40:03
  risk
• 40:03
  in
• 40:04
  every
• 40:04
  asset
• 40:04
  class,
• 40:05
  that's
• 40:05
  the
• 40:05
  danger.
• 40:06
  And
• 40:06
  so
• 40:06
  what
• 40:07
  we
• 40:07
  try
• 40:07
  to
• 40:07
  do
• 40:07
  with
• 40:07
  our
• 40:07
  credit
• 40:08
  books
• 40:08
  is
• 40:08
  we
• 40:08
  try
• 40:08
  to
• 40:08
  say,
• 40:09
  okay,
• 40:09
  if
• 40:09
  we
• 40:09
  like
• 40:09
  energy,
• 40:10
  do
• 40:10
  we
• 40:10
  want
• 40:10
  to
• 40:10
  own
• 40:10
  that
• 40:11
  in
• 40:11
  em?
• 40:11
  Do
• 40:11
  we
• 40:11
  own
• 40:12
  that
• 40:12
  in
• 40:12
  the
• 40:12
  us?
• 40:12
  Do
• 40:12
  we
• 40:13
  want
• 40:13
  to
• 40:13
  IG
• 40:13
  produce?
• 40:13
  Do
• 40:13
  we
• 40:14
  want
• 40:14
  a
• 40:14
  high
• 40:14
  yield
• 40:14
  pro?
• 40:15
  Where's
• 40:15
  the
• 40:15
  best
• 40:15
  value
• 40:16
  there?
• 40:16
  And
• 40:16
  so
• 40:17
  I
• 40:17
  think
• 40:17
  that's
• 40:17
  what
• 40:18
  people
• 40:18
  need
• 40:18
  to
• 40:18
  think
• 40:18
  about
• 40:18
  on
• 40:18
  the
• 40:18
  diversification
• 40:19
  too,
• 40:20
  is
• 40:20
  that,
• 40:20
  you
• 40:20
  know,
• 40:21
  look,
• 40:21
  bonds
• 40:21
  will
• 40:21
  work
• 40:22
  again
• 40:22
  unless
• 40:23
  we
• 40:23
  have
• 40:23
  a
• 40:23
  high
• 40:23
  inflation
• 40:23
  environment.
• 40:24
  And
• 40:25
  you
• 40:25
  know,
• 40:25
  people
• 40:25
  will
• 40:25
  say,
• 40:25
  well,
• 40:25
  2022
• 40:26
  just,
• 40:26
  you
• 40:27
  know,
• 40:27
  didn't
• 40:27
  work.
• 40:27
  Bonds
• 40:28
  are
• 40:28
  dead
• 40:28
  forever.
• 40:29
  They
• 40:29
  had
• 40:29
  to
• 40:29
  ReRack
• 40:30
  and
• 40:30
  reprice.
• 40:30
  That's
• 40:30
  what
• 40:31
  they
• 40:31
  did.
• 40:31
  And
• 40:32
  there's
• 40:32
  been
• 40:32
  periods
• 40:32
  of
• 40:32
  this
• 40:33
  in
• 40:33
  the
• 40:33
  mid
• 40:33
  nineties
• 40:33
  where
• 40:33
  you
• 40:34
  had
• 40:34
  this,
• 40:34
  when
• 40:34
  inflation's
• 40:35
  a
• 40:35
  problem
• 40:35
  that
• 40:35
  everybody's
• 40:36
  gonna
• 40:36
  point
• 40:36
  to
• 40:36
  the
• 40:36
  seventies.
• 40:37
  But
• 40:37
  in
• 40:37
  the
• 40:37
  mid
• 40:37
  nineties
• 40:38
  we
• 40:38
  had
• 40:38
  inflation
• 40:39
  was
• 40:39
  running
• 40:39
  in
• 40:39
  the
• 40:39
  four
• 40:40
  or
• 40:40
  5%
• 40:40
  range
• 40:40
  and
• 40:40
  bonds
• 40:41
  didn't
• 40:41
  do
• 40:41
  well.
• 40:42
  So
• 40:42
  that's,
• 40:43
  you
• 40:43
  need
• 40:43
  real
• 40:43
  yields
• 40:44
  is
• 40:44
  what
• 40:44
  it
• 40:44
  comes
• 40:44
  back
• 40:45
  down
• 40:45
  to.
• 40:45
  And
• 40:46
  you
• 40:46
  have
• 40:46
  that
• 40:46
  today.
• 40:47
  And
• 40:48
  even
• 40:48
  if
• 40:48
  you
• 40:48
  have
• 40:48
  this
• 40:49
  oil
• 40:49
  price
• 40:49
  spike,
• 40:50
  I
• 40:50
  don't
• 40:50
  think
• 40:50
  that
• 40:50
  it
• 40:51
  keeps
• 40:51
  this
• 40:51
  pressure
• 40:51
  on
• 40:52
  inflation
• 40:52
  for
• 40:52
  the
• 40:52
  next
• 40:53
  12
• 40:53
  months.
• 40:54
  I
• 40:54
  think
• 40:54
  it's
• 40:54
  gonna
• 40:54
  be
• 40:54
  short
• 40:55
  term.
• 40:55
  And
• 40:55
  the
• 40:55
  cure
• 40:56
  for
• 40:56
  high
• 40:56
  price
• 40:56
  is
• 40:56
  high
• 40:56
  price.
• 40:57
  So
• 40:57
  bring
• 40:58
  it
• 40:58
  all
• 40:58
  back
• 40:58
  together.
• 40:59
  You
• 40:59
  probably
• 40:59
  don't
• 40:59
  own
• 40:59
  enough
• 41:00
  gold.
• 41:00
  You
• 41:00
  didn't
• 41:00
  own
• 41:00
  enough
• 41:01
  today,
• 41:01
  but
• 41:01
  you
• 41:02
  know,
• 41:02
  it
• 41:02
  doesn't
• 41:02
  feel
• 41:02
  like
• 41:02
  the
• 41:02
  best
• 41:03
  time.
• 41:03
  But
• 41:03
  I
• 41:03
  if
• 41:04
  you're,
• 41:04
  if
• 41:04
  you
• 41:04
  don't,
• 41:04
  if
• 41:04
  you
• 41:05
  don't
• 41:05
  love
• 41:05
  the
• 41:05
  dollar
• 41:05
  either,
• 41:06
  I
• 41:07
  still
• 41:07
  think
• 41:07
  gold
• 41:07
  is
• 41:07
  a
• 41:07
  very
• 41:08
  good
• 41:08
  bet
• 41:08
  there
• 41:08
  too.
• 41:09
  And
• 41:09
  so
• 41:09
  I
• 41:09
  think
• 41:09
  that's
• 41:10
  another
• 41:10
  piece
• 41:10
  of
• 41:10
  portfolios
• 41:11
  that
• 41:11
  people
• 41:11
  need
• 41:11
  to
• 41:11
  think
• 41:11
  through.
• 41:12
  And
• 41:12
  especially
• 41:13
  as
• 41:13
  the
• 41:13
  world
• 41:13
  kind
• 41:13
  of
• 41:14
  um,
• 41:14
  central
• 41:14
  banks
• 41:15
  around
• 41:15
  the
• 41:15
  world
• 41:15
  really
• 41:16
  start
• 41:16
  to
• 41:16
  restock
• 41:17
  those
• 41:17
  positions.
• 41:18
  That's
• 41:18
  been
• 41:19
  the
• 41:19
  bid.
• 41:19
  This
• 41:19
  has
• 41:19
  not
• 41:19
  been
• 41:20
  a
• 41:20
  retail
• 41:20
  or
• 41:20
  wealth
• 41:21
  management
• 41:21
  bid.
• 41:22
  This
• 41:22
  has
• 41:22
  been
• 41:22
  an
• 41:22
  institutional
• 41:23
  bid
• 41:24
  and
• 41:24
  I
• 41:24
  think
• 41:24
  that,
• 41:25
  you
• 41:25
  know,
• 41:25
  by
• 41:25
  the
• 41:25
  time
• 41:25
  this
• 41:25
  administration's
• 41:26
  over,
• 41:27
  you
• 41:27
  may
• 41:27
  see
• 41:27
  gold
• 41:28
  double
• 41:28
  again.
• 41:28
  Wow.
• 41:29
  Well,
• 41:29
  just
• 41:29
  because
• 41:29
  of
• 41:30
  the
• 41:30
  path
• 41:30
  of
• 41:30
  the
• 41:30
  dollar
• 41:30
  as
• 41:31
  well.
• 41:31
  Yeah.
• 41:31
  And
• 41:31
  just,
• 41:32
  there
• 41:32
  may
• 41:32
  be
• 41:32
  some,
• 41:33
  I
• 41:33
  don't
• 41:33
  want
• 41:33
  to
• 41:33
  be
• 41:34
  wedded
• 41:34
  to
• 41:34
  dollars
• 41:35
  over
• 41:35
  the
• 41:35
  next
• 41:36
  decade
• 41:36
  or
• 41:36
  two,
• 41:36
  and
• 41:37
  that,
• 41:37
  that,
• 41:37
  that
• 41:38
  takes
• 41:38
  a
• 41:38
  long
• 41:38
  time
• 41:39
  to,
• 41:39
  to
• 41:39
  play
• 41:39
  out.
• 41:40
  But
• 41:40
  it
• 41:40
  sure
• 41:40
  feels
• 41:41
  like
• 41:41
  that's
• 41:41
  been
• 41:41
  playing
• 41:41
  out
• 41:42
  in
• 41:42
  the
• 41:42
  last,
• 41:42
  you
• 41:42
  know,
• 41:42
  15
• 41:43
  to
• 41:43
  16
• 41:43
  months.
• 41:44
  I'm
• 41:44
  glad
• 41:44
  you
• 41:44
  threw
• 41:45
  that
• 41:45
  nugget
• 41:45
  in
• 41:45
  about
• 41:46
  gold,
• 41:46
  gold
• 41:46
  nuggets.
• 41:47
  Yeah.
• 41:47
  See
• 41:47
  what
• 41:47
  I
• 41:47
  did
• 41:47
  there?
• 41:48
  Yeah.
• 41:48
  You,
• 41:48
  you
• 41:48
  were
• 41:48
  looking
• 41:48
  for
• 41:49
  that
• 41:49
  hotel.
• 41:49
  Is
• 41:49
  the
• 41:50
  cold
• 41:50
  nugget
• 41:50
  still
• 41:50
  exists?
• 41:51
  I
• 41:51
  think
• 41:52
  it
• 41:52
  does.
• 41:52
  It's
• 41:52
  in
• 41:52
  downtown
• 41:52
  Right
• 41:52
  know.
• 41:52
  And
• 41:52
  interesting
• 41:53
  enough,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  Tahoe,
• 41:55
  it
• 41:56
  was
• 41:56
  a
• 41:56
  hard
• 41:56
  rock.
• 41:57
  Yep.
• 41:57
  And
• 41:57
  then
• 41:57
  the
• 41:58
  gold
• 41:58
  golden
• 41:58
  nugget
• 41:59
  took
• 41:59
  it
• 41:59
  over
• 42:01
  then
• 42:01
  the
• 42:01
  past
• 42:01
  few
• 42:01
  months.
• 42:02
  Yeah.
• 42:02
  My,
• 42:02
  uh,
• 42:02
  my
• 42:03
  parents
• 42:03
  like
• 42:03
  to
• 42:03
  go
• 42:03
  down
• 42:03
  there
• 42:04
  and
• 42:04
  eat
• 42:04
  too
• 42:04
  at,
• 42:04
  at
• 42:04
  the
• 42:04
  Hard
• 42:05
  Rock.
• 42:05
  I,
• 42:05
  I
• 42:05
  always
• 42:05
  kinda
• 42:05
  enjoyed
• 42:06
  that
• 42:06
  place
• 42:06
  too.
• 42:06
  Yeah.
• 42:07
  I
• 42:07
  think
• 42:07
  it's
• 42:08
  changed
• 42:08
  names
• 42:08
  about,
• 42:09
  yeah.
• 42:09
  Half
• 42:10
  dozen
• 42:10
  times
• 42:11
  in
• 42:11
  a
• 42:11
  couple
• 42:11
  years.
• 42:11
  I
• 42:11
  mean,
• 42:11
  yeah,
• 42:12
  those
• 42:12
  casinos
• 42:12
  flip
• 42:12
  over
• 42:13
  a
• 42:13
  lot.
• 42:13
  Oh
• 42:13
  yeah.
• 42:13
  They,
• 42:13
  the
• 42:13
  names.
• 42:14
  So
• 42:14
  I
• 42:14
  wish
• 42:14
  they'd
• 42:15
  flip
• 42:15
  over
• 42:15
  on
• 42:15
  the
• 42:15
  inside
• 42:16
  and
• 42:16
  re
• 42:17
  and
• 42:17
  remodel
• 42:17
  and
• 42:18
  clean
• 42:18
  'em
• 42:18
  up
• 42:18
  a
• 42:18
  little
• 42:18
  bit.
• 42:19
  Yeah.
• 42:19
  The,
• 42:19
  but
• 42:19
  the
• 42:19
  Caesars
• 42:20
  one
• 42:20
  did,
• 42:20
  I
• 42:20
  think
• 42:21
  when
• 42:21
  they
• 42:21
  changed
• 42:21
  names
• 42:22
  and,
• 42:22
  uh,
• 42:22
  yeah.
• 42:22
  Yeah.
• 42:22
  But
• 42:22
  no,
• 42:23
  it's,
• 42:23
  it's
• 42:23
  always,
• 42:23
  yeah.
• 42:24
  Yeah.
• 42:24
  Tahoe,
• 42:24
  Tahoe
• 42:25
  does
• 42:25
  need
• 42:25
  some
• 42:25
  CapEx.
• 42:26
  Yeah.
• 42:26
  They
• 42:26
  really
• 42:27
  do.
• 42:27
  They,
• 42:28
  the,
• 42:28
  the
• 42:28
  street,
• 42:29
  they
• 42:29
  need
• 42:30
  a
• 42:30
  lot
• 42:30
  of
• 42:30
  work.
• 42:30
  Yeah.
• 42:31
  But
• 42:32
  we'll,
• 42:32
  we'll
• 42:32
  take
• 42:33
  it.
• 42:33
  Yeah,
• 42:34
  we'll
• 42:34
  take
• 42:34
  it.
• 42:34
  Speaking
• 42:35
  of
• 42:35
  Tahoe,
• 42:35
  we,
• 42:36
  we
• 42:36
  need
• 42:36
  to
• 42:36
  get
• 42:36
  you
• 42:36
  up
• 42:37
  there
• 42:37
  that
• 42:37
  maybe
• 42:37
  we
• 42:37
  can
• 42:37
  do
• 42:38
  the,
• 42:38
  uh,
• 42:38
  podcast
• 42:39
  literally
• 42:39
  on
• 42:40
  the
• 42:40
  shores,
• 42:40
  Zephyr
• 42:41
  Cove,
• 42:41
  right?
• 42:41
  Yeah.
• 42:42
  Yeah.
• 42:42
  So
• 42:42
  we
• 42:43
  were
• 42:43
  founded.
• 42:43
  I
• 42:43
  know.
• 42:44
  It's
• 42:44
  a
• 42:44
  great
• 42:44
  launching
• 42:44
  boat.
• 42:45
  That's
• 42:45
  a
• 42:45
  good
• 42:45
  boat
• 42:45
  launch
• 42:46
  deck
• 42:46
  too.
• 42:46
  Yes,
• 42:47
  it
• 42:47
  is.
• 42:47
  Maybe
• 42:48
  we'll
• 42:48
  do
• 42:48
  it,
• 42:48
  maybe
• 42:48
  we'll
• 42:48
  do
• 42:49
  as
• 42:49
  we'll
• 42:49
  do
• 42:49
  it
• 42:49
  from
• 42:49
  a
• 42:49
  pontoon
• 42:50
  boat
• 42:50
  out
• 42:50
  there.
• 42:50
  Oh
• 42:51
  yeah.
• 42:51
  That'd
• 42:51
  be
• 42:51
  really
• 42:51
  cool.
• 42:51
  There
• 42:51
  we
• 42:51
  go.
• 42:52
  You
• 42:52
  know,
• 42:53
  I
• 42:53
  often
• 42:53
  talk,
• 42:54
  it's
• 42:54
  like
• 42:54
  I
• 42:54
  love
• 42:55
  doing
• 42:55
  the
• 42:55
  podcast
• 42:55
  because
• 42:56
  it
• 42:56
  typically,
• 42:57
  my
• 42:57
  conversations
• 42:58
  are
• 42:58
  with
• 42:58
  ski
• 42:58
  bumps.
• 42:59
  And
• 42:59
  nothing
• 43:00
  wrong
• 43:00
  with
• 43:00
  ski
• 43:00
  bumps.
• 43:01
  Yeah.
• 43:01
  But
• 43:01
  it's
• 43:01
  nice
• 43:02
  to
• 43:02
  have
• 43:02
  conversations
• 43:03
  that,
• 43:03
  that
• 43:03
  people
• 43:04
  are
• 43:04
  passionate
• 43:04
  about
• 43:04
  investing
• 43:05
  and,
• 43:06
  uh,
• 43:06
  so
• 43:06
  I
• 43:06
  love
• 43:06
  doing
• 43:06
  the
• 43:06
  podcast.
• 43:07
  I
• 43:07
  feel
• 43:08
  as
• 43:08
  if
• 43:08
  we
• 43:08
  need
• 43:08
  to
• 43:08
  have
• 43:09
  exchange,
• 43:10
  maybe
• 43:10
  move
• 43:10
  the
• 43:10
  conference
• 43:11
  up
• 43:11
  there.
• 43:12
  Yeah.
• 43:12
  I
• 43:12
  mean,
• 43:12
  um,
• 43:13
  there's
• 43:13
  not
• 43:13
  a
• 43:13
  big,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  the
• 43:14
  Venn
• 43:15
  diagram
• 43:15
  intersection
• 43:16
  isn't
• 43:16
  big
• 43:16
  between
• 43:17
  ski
• 43:17
  bums
• 43:17
  and
• 43:18
  investment
• 43:18
  folks.
• 43:19
  But
• 43:19
  I
• 43:19
  do
• 43:19
  know
• 43:19
  one,
• 43:20
  uh,
• 43:20
  MEB
• 43:20
  Faber,
• 43:21
  I
• 43:21
  was
• 43:21
  just,
• 43:21
  I
• 43:21
  was
• 43:21
  gonna
• 43:21
  say
• 43:21
  me
• 43:21
  Meb
• 43:22
  is
• 43:22
  probably
• 43:22
  the
• 43:22
  quintessential
• 43:23
  example
• 43:23
  there,
• 43:23
  right.
• 43:24
  You
• 43:24
  know,
• 43:24
  I
• 43:25
  almost
• 43:25
  reached
• 43:26
  out
• 43:26
  to
• 43:26
  MEB
• 43:26
  a
• 43:26
  couple
• 43:27
  weeks
• 43:27
  ago.
• 43:27
  Hey,
• 43:28
  Sherman's
• 43:28
  gonna
• 43:29
  be
• 43:29
  on
• 43:29
  the
• 43:29
  podcast.
• 43:30
  We're
• 43:30
  doing
• 43:30
  it
• 43:30
  live.
• 43:31
  Maybe
• 43:31
  we
• 43:31
  get
• 43:31
  MEV
• 43:32
  on
• 43:32
  here
• 43:32
  too.
• 43:32
  And
• 43:33
  I,
• 43:34
  I,
• 43:34
  I
• 43:34
  love
• 43:34
  Meb.
• 43:34
  I
• 43:34
  think
• 43:35
  he's
• 43:35
  great.
• 43:35
  I
• 43:35
  think
• 43:35
  he's
• 43:35
  great.
• 43:36
  Yeah.
• 43:36
  Yeah.
• 43:36
  He's
• 43:36
  always,
• 43:36
  he's
• 43:36
  always
• 43:37
  thinking
• 43:37
  about,
• 43:37
  uh,
• 43:38
  he,
• 43:38
  he's
• 43:38
  definitely
• 43:39
  thinking
• 43:39
  about
• 43:39
  different
• 43:40
  stuff
• 43:40
  out
• 43:40
  there.
• 43:40
  And
• 43:41
  I
• 43:41
  think
• 43:41
  he's
• 43:41
  one
• 43:41
  of,
• 43:42
  I
• 43:42
  think
• 43:42
  the,
• 43:42
  the
• 43:42
  finance
• 43:43
  world's
• 43:43
  better
• 43:43
  for
• 43:43
  having
• 43:44
  thought,
• 43:44
  thought
• 43:44
  leaders
• 43:45
  like
• 43:45
  him
• 43:45
  as
• 43:45
  well.
• 43:46
  Yeah,
• 43:46
  you're
• 43:46
  exactly
• 43:47
  it.
• 43:47
  It
• 43:47
  kind
• 43:48
  of,
• 43:48
  sometimes
• 43:48
  they
• 43:48
  think
• 43:49
  it's
• 43:49
  outside
• 43:49
  the
• 43:49
  box.
• 43:49
  Yeah.
• 43:50
  I
• 43:50
  may
• 43:50
  get
• 43:50
  a
• 43:50
  lot
• 43:50
  of
• 43:50
  fanboy
• 43:51
  emails
• 43:51
  on
• 43:51
  that,
• 43:51
  that
• 43:52
  I'm,
• 43:52
  I'm,
• 43:52
  I'm
• 43:52
  a,
• 43:52
  I'm
• 43:52
  a
• 43:52
  me
• 43:53
  fanboy.
• 43:53
  So.
• 43:54
  Awesome,
• 43:55
  Jeffrey.
• 43:55
  Great
• 43:56
  conversation.
• 43:57
  Alright.
• 43:57
  Thank
• 43:57
  you
• 43:57
  so
• 43:58
  much
• 43:58
  for
• 43:58
  coming
• 43:58
  out
• 43:59
  again.
• 43:59
  Always
• 43:59
  really
• 44:00
  enjoy
• 44:00
  it.
• 44:01
  Uh,
• 44:01
  all
• 44:01
  the
• 44:01
  insight.
• 44:02
  I
• 44:02
  learn
• 44:02
  a
• 44:03
  ton
• 44:03
  in
• 44:03
  our
• 44:03
  conversations.
• 44:04
  Where
• 44:04
  can
• 44:05
  our
• 44:05
  audience
• 44:05
  get
• 44:05
  more
• 44:06
  information
• 44:06
  about
• 44:06
  Double
• 44:07
  Line?
• 44:07
  Uh,
• 44:07
  it's
• 44:07
  easy.
• 44:08
  Double
• 44:08
  line.com.
• 44:09
  Um,
• 44:09
  it's
• 44:09
  the
• 44:09
  easiest
• 44:10
  way
• 44:10
  to
• 44:10
  do
• 44:10
  it,
• 44:10
  but
• 44:10
  also,
• 44:11
  uh,
• 44:11
  we
• 44:11
  have
• 44:11
  a
• 44:11
  lot
• 44:11
  of
• 44:11
  YouTube
• 44:12
  channels.
• 44:12
  We
• 44:12
  put
• 44:12
  out
• 44:12
  a
• 44:12
  lot
• 44:13
  of
• 44:13
  our
• 44:13
  macro
• 44:13
  research
• 44:14
  and
• 44:14
  stuff
• 44:14
  out
• 44:14
  there.
• 44:15
  Uh,
• 44:15
  so
• 44:15
  YouTube,
• 44:16
  do
• 44:16
  youtube.com/double
• 44:18
  line
• 44:18
  capital,
• 44:19
  you
• 44:19
  know,
• 44:19
  so
• 44:19
  someone
• 44:20
  already
• 44:20
  got
• 44:20
  the
• 44:20
  double
• 44:20
  line.
• 44:21
  We
• 44:21
  had
• 44:21
  to
• 44:21
  add
• 44:21
  the
• 44:21
  capital
• 44:21
  in
• 44:22
  there
• 44:22
  to
• 44:22
  get
• 44:22
  that.
• 44:23
  I'm
• 44:23
  really
• 44:23
  impressed,
• 44:24
  Jeffrey,
• 44:24
  because
• 44:25
  obviously
• 44:26
  we've
• 44:26
  posted
• 44:26
  podcasts
• 44:27
  on
• 44:27
  YouTube.
• 44:27
  I
• 44:28
  couldn't
• 44:28
  tell
• 44:28
  you
• 44:28
  what
• 44:29
  my
• 44:30
  YouTube,
• 44:31
  maybe
• 44:31
  I
• 44:32
  shouldn't,
• 44:32
  I
• 44:32
  need
• 44:32
  to
• 44:32
  do
• 44:33
  that.
• 44:33
  You,
• 44:33
  you
• 44:33
  know
• 44:33
  what,
• 44:33
  it's,
• 44:33
  'cause
• 44:34
  I
• 44:34
  had
• 44:34
  a
• 44:34
  podcast
• 44:34
  with
• 44:35
  Sunday.
• 44:35
  They
• 44:35
  beat
• 44:35
  me
• 44:35
  over
• 44:35
  the
• 44:35
  head
• 44:36
  with
• 44:36
  it.
• 44:36
  That
• 44:37
  you're
• 44:37
  supposed
• 44:37
  to
• 44:37
  announce
• 44:38
  this,
• 44:38
  you
• 44:38
  gotta
• 44:38
  announce
• 44:39
  the
• 44:39
  date.
• 44:39
  I'm
• 44:39
  like,
• 44:39
  this
• 44:40
  is
• 44:40
  too
• 44:40
  complicated.
• 44:40
  I
• 44:40
  can't
• 44:41
  do
• 44:41
  it.
• 44:41
  So
• 44:41
  anyway,
• 44:41
  it's,
• 44:42
  it's
• 44:42
  ingrained
• 44:42
  in
• 44:42
  my
• 44:42
  memory.
• 44:43
  Well,
• 44:43
  you
• 44:43
  guys,
• 44:44
  the
• 44:44
  pie,
• 44:45
  the
• 44:45
  content
• 44:46
  you
• 44:46
  guys
• 44:46
  produce.
• 44:47
  I
• 44:47
  know
• 44:47
  it's
• 44:47
  hard
• 44:47
  to
• 44:47
  believe
• 44:48
  to
• 44:48
  some.
• 44:48
  I
• 44:48
  do
• 44:48
  do
• 44:49
  a
• 44:49
  little
• 44:49
  bit
• 44:49
  of
• 44:49
  research
• 44:50
  before,
• 44:50
  uh,
• 44:51
  having
• 44:51
  these
• 44:51
  conversations
• 44:52
  and
• 44:53
  I
• 44:53
  go
• 44:53
  the
• 44:53
  double
• 44:53
  line
• 44:54
  a
• 44:54
  lot.
• 44:54
  All
• 44:54
  right,
• 44:54
  well,
• 44:54
  appreciate
• 44:55
  it.
• 44:55
  Well,
• 44:55
  thanks
• 44:55
  everybody.
• 44:56
  Thanks
• 44:56
  for
• 44:56
  listening
• 44:56
  and
• 44:57
  thanks
• 44:57
  for
• 44:57
  having
• 44:57
  me
• 44:57
  back
• 44:57
  on.
• 44:57
  Yes.
• 44:58
  Thank
• 44:58
  you,
• 44:58
  Jeffrey.
• 44:59
  Thank
• 44:59
  you
• 44:59
  everyone
• 44:59
  for
• 44:59
  listening
• 45:00
  to
• 45:00
  this
• 45:00
  episode.
• 45:01
  Is
• 45:01
  Zephyr
• 45:01
  just
• 45:02
  for
• 45:02
  Risk
• 45:02
  podcast.
• 45:03
  You
• 45:03
  can
• 45:03
  watch
• 45:03
  all
• 45:04
  of
• 45:04
  our
• 45:04
  other
• 45:04
  episodes
• 45:05
  on
• 45:05
  the
• 45:05
  Zephyr
• 45:05
  YouTube
• 45:06
  channel.
• 45:07
  And,
• 45:07
  uh,
• 45:08
  Spotify
• 45:08
  and
• 45:09
  please
• 45:09
  be
• 45:09
  sure
• 45:09
  to
• 45:09
  like,
• 45:10
  subscribe
• 45:10
  to
• 45:10
  those
• 45:10
  channels
• 45:11
  and
• 45:11
  give
• 45:11
  us
• 45:11
  a
• 45:11
  follow
• 45:12
  on
• 45:12
  LinkedIn.
• 45:13
  Thank
• 45:13
  you
• 45:13
  very
• 45:13
  much
• 45:13
  and
• 45:14
  have
• 45:14
  a
• 45:14
  good
• 45:14
  rest
• 45:14
  of
• 45:14
  your
• 45:14
  week.
• 45:25
  Let's
• 45:25
  get
• 45:25
  started.
• 45:54
  Let's
• 45:54
  go.