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NFL Week 18 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Network time. Chad Milman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: in his Thursday the Week of Week eighteen, Week eighteen
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: NFL season, I am joined as always by my BFF,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: my companion Mike and Padre professional better Mr Simon Hunter. Hello,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Hello Chad. You almost forgot where you were. For a second,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I lost I did. I lost track for a second.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I was trying to think, is there any other housekeeping
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I needed to do a little bit of housekeeping for
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: our fans. Apparently I missed spoke or maybe it wasn't
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: clear enough. And we talked last episode. We were talking
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: about our contest. So when I said we didn't make
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: any money, I mean we didn't make the money of
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the contest. Yes, we had a winning record, we didn't
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: make the contest money. So we were three short or
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: two and a half exactly short of making the money.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So I believe it was top fifty got paid last year,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Me and Chad we came in twenty fourth place. This
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: year we came or eighty nine, so we needed it
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: might have been seven thousand or whatever was, but the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: year before it wasn't that many. Obviously, as these contests
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: get bigger and more states become legalized, these things are
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: gonna keep growing. So yeah, the contest we were in,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: it went up tensefold. Obviously didn't help. So in a
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: normal year me and chat I would have made the money.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: That was a good record, but the way it's going nowadays,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: you just have to have a really really good year
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and not have any down weeks to make the money.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm obviously not over. I'm not gonna be over
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: until next season. But um, I just want to clarify
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: we made money this season. We just didn't make the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: money and this contest we do, son, and I will
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: always put my lot in with you. Brother. I'm listen.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: It's week eighteen. Like I said, it's a confusing week.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: This is why we do the show twice a week
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: because what we talked about on Tuesday forty eight hours later.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: In in any season, it's going to be wacky between
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: market news, injury news. In one into twenty two, it's
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be wacky because of market news, injury news, COVID news,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: playoff seatings, all of that has become a factor in
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the past forty eight hours. We're gonna narrow down. We're
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: gonna review sort of the games that we loved on Tuesday,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Gonna narrow it down to see if we still hold
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: those positions. We're gonna talk about some money line parlays,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: which are becoming more interesting this week because of some
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: of the seatings and sort of motivations for teams. We've
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: got to get some sharp calls, So let's start with
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking maybe love to
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: do It is funny how there's some weeks where I
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: get never any calls in there's other weeks like this week,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: where I'm getting calls, but it's not like last week.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And I felt like last week we had like six
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: games I had professionals really in on. This week is
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: a little different. And then just this morning, this isn't
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: even a sharp call we didn't touch on the last show.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Antonio Brown the whole thing. He showed his Texas morning
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: and his text showed arians his head coach saying they're
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: not resting, They're playing everyone so it sounds like my
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: information about Carolina is no good. I still see the
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: line coming down. I've seen it now. It's seven and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: a half of some books. Seven at other books. I
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: don't know that text. It's from the head coach. Ab
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: sput it out there, and the coach is literally saying
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: in the text, we're not resting, guys, We're playing scary.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Scary because I I really liked that Carolina position. I
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: thought that was a smart play. We have a banged
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: up Tampa Bay team. Why would they not take the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: week off, try to get healthy, get right head into
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I'm still on Carolina. Just kind of muffled that,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: and again I had other guys call in saying they
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: like Carolina. They thought it was still a good number
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I'm just looking at my
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: phone right now. It's back up the eight. It's books.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be interesting following that line. I'm still
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: on it. I'm still on Carolina. It's just like, what
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: would you do? Chat? Would you just keep playing it
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: out and see how it goes on that one? I
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: don't know really know what to do with the position.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: My opinion, we stay in the Panthers. It's been a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: really interesting the fact that this number sort of moved
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: down to seven and a half, even when we continue
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: to see money in bets coming in on on the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: other side, My sense is that some very big money,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: some kind of syndicate did come out of the Panthers.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm just gonna hold my position, but
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: does make it a little scared when you see those texts.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I was more interested this week in
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the story about Hub Barkish, who has an m v
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: P vote saying he wouldn't vote for Aaron Rodgers because
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: he thinks he's a bad guy. True story. How Barkish
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: gave me my very first job in journalism. Yeah. I
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: feel so bad for the guy. He seems like a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: nice guy and he is just getting destroyed NonStop on
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the internet. I mean, it's it's rough, steam rolled, sweet guy.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: For Football Weekly was located ten minutes from my house.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I looked in the phone book my freshman year of
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: college for like magazines and newspapers near my house. I
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: came home from Indiana University, Pro Football Weekly was listed.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I needed a job for the summer. I called Pro
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Football Weekly. I went in, uh, thinking I was getting
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: an interview for like an internship. That day, an editor
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: for Pro Football Weekly had quit and gone to cover
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the Bears for somebody else locally, and uh, they hired
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: me as an editor, making like eight dollars an hour
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: and put me in an office, Like I worked at
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Weekly as an editor for the summer. That
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: was my first job. It was. It was insane. That's
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: actually big money for back then. It was huge. Yeah,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: that's that's really good. Yeah. I was like, I'm like,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: are you kidding me? I'm an editor at a national
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: football magazine. It was. It was totally nuts. So I'll
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: always have a soft spot for Hub. If you're him,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: would you just post your whoever you've for m d P.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: You gotta show who you vote for now, right, he
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: absolutely has to show you because that was such a
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: bad look. Chad Man, I say something really quick. Of course,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: your friend and mine. Brandon Anderson of the Action Network,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: whose specialty, among other things is the futures market, said
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: in August recommended that everyone bat Tom Brady to an
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: m v P made an incredibly cogent argument at fourteen
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: to one, mostly about how would be Uh, it's a
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: narrative award, A lot of things we're adding up. If
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady were to win the m v P, it
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: would be by far the most money I've ever won
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: betting on anything. And as a Thanksgiving and the beginning
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: of December, tom Brady was a cow wouldn't say size well,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: but he was the favorite and is now a prohibitive underdog.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I hope every single voter feels the same way as
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: this gentleman. I wish nothing but the worst to Aaron Rodgers,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the unofficial governor of my state here in Wisconsin. He's
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: certainly no more value all then time Brady. As to
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, especially this season is full of injuries, etcetera, etcetera.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: And I hope the voters do the right thing. The
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: best ability is availability, Simon, and Tom Brady was. He
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: was always available. Tom Brady for m v P if
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: you're listening. So a couple other calls. We were dead
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: on with our Cleveland take. We said, people just take
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the points of Cleveland there plus three at the time,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: a couple of pros. That's what they really liked. Now
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: it's moved so much, there's no value there anymore. It's
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: up to six now for since he So, if I
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: had to pick a side, I'd take since now you're
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: getting six points, its backup, verse, back up, I'll take
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: that six. Um with the Bengals on the road, No
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: real feel for it though. So the value was on
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: that Cleveland at the three, not much value now. The
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: one I kept hearing from pros about was the Dolphins. Um,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: we got a lot of heat for my Newland take. Alright,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I get it, Newland. No matter what, they're gonna be
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the seventh seed. They could lose and they're still gonna
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: no matter what, make the playoffs. Doesn't change what I
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: feel about this Miami number that was too big at seven.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I still think it's too big at six and a
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: half for I don't see Miami quitting. They're like they
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: can still technically if things. A bunch of things have
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: to happen for them to make it, and it's like
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: a one out of a hundred chance they do make it.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: They don't seem like a team that's gonna quit on
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Flores like he had them playing hard. They were one
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: in seven, they turned their whole season around. Yeah, they
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: let a letdown last week we talked about that was predictable,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that let down game. It's really hard to win eight
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: straight games. Oh like, that's really really hard to do.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: So from a bounce back perspective, nothing really changed the
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: fact that I've heard some other professionals now staying they're
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Dolphins. Woke up this morning, I
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: saw the line and moved down to six and a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: half to split all the money, all the tickets coming in,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: all on the Dolphins. Talked to a bookmaker yesterday in Philadelphia.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: He said, one of the biggest teas teams this week
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: is New England. Again, this is what people are gonna
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: be doing. They're gonna be looking at. Like we talked
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: about the playoff matchups, New England needs this game again.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: They don't need it to make the playoffs, so they
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: need it for seeding. They depends on the seating what
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: they get with this. So I will already like the Dolphins,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: but now I've heard the many pros on it. I
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: wish I could have made in my screets for Left
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: because it feels I feel way better about the Dolphins
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I do about Atlanta. And again, another game we can
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: get to that's a pros versus show's game. The pros
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: have come in. The money is coming in Atlanta despite
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Pits being out. Pits is out now for Atlanta, that's
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: a big deal. I was interesting to hear your take
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: on that, just because what do they have left? I
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: know they guy Cordell Patterson, but man down, Ridley down
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Pits on all offense. I know the Saints don't have
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: anything either, but like maybe that's when we're I'll just
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: be bigger on the under than than picking a side.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: But I still like Atlanta with the points. But that
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: that made me feel like ship seeing that pitts his out.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Is that official? Was he officially out? It's not official,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: But it's like when Chefter, you like the way Chefter talks.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: It's like he's not practicing this week. It's so rare
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: for guys that aren't practicing to come in if they
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: have a serious injury in the last week of the season,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Like they're looking at it, like, what's the point of
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: risking it that he has to get surgery in the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: off season. Why don't we just take it easy on
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the kid. So that's the only thing I'm wondering, is
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: he's fifty eight yards away from setting the singles. The
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: rookie season in receiving yards record for a tight end,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I know, and like there's a bunch of little things
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: like that where it's like I bet I wanted to
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: bet his prop. Luckily they don't hang their props earlier
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: in the week because I would have lost money, Like like
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: like I would have been all over prop. I still
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: think you're getting a good number Atlanta. I've heard other
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: professionals like it saw dropped down to four. This morning's
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: right back up to four and a half. So it
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: was at pros versus shows game. Now pro money is
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: coming on the Saints as well, because again, this is
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: what we'll see throughout this whole final week. The Saints
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: are playing for more. They like Tennessee where of the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: most banged up teams this year of the Saints. I
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: mean no team has had more injuries. They went from
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Jamis to Taysom Hill to Simeon back to Taysom Hill.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: It's just it's been a crazy year for that Saints team.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So I'm still I'm still looking at this and trying
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: to have a clear mind, saying to myself, that's that's
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of points for a home team in Atlanta
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: playing against a team the Saints. That's not that good.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Like again, both these teams aren't that good, but it's
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: a divisional game. You're still giving me four and a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: half of the Lanta at home. I'm still gonna be honest.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So it was interesting hearing other pros say that's a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: game they really liked as well. We like Minnesota minus
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We said we wanted to take
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: it now, just in case Kirk came back. That's the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: game the pros were all over. Kirk got cleared. The
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: lines up the four, it's up the four and a half.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: At some books, I still would take it, but obviously
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: we liked the way better two and a half three
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: it's still a good number against the Barry's team. But
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: I feel like you touched on the last show, Chad,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: They're just it feels like there are two teams going
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: in different directions, like the Bears have been playing well
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks, where Minnesota just has not
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: in a close matchup. Now that we're above three, I
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: might start looking at taking the Bears, but it's hard
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: to say, just because I did bet the Vikes a
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: two and a half and I don't I don't feel
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: great about betting Andy Dalton on the road, dude, this
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: is a pass. Pass. Yesterday was Virginia mccasky's ninety nine birthday.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: She is, of course, the daughter of George Hallis and
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the owner of the Bears. They posted a picture of
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: her on the Bears Instagram feed and uh said, happy birthday.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: The very first comment is from a guy who's handle
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I recognize because it's my buddy Matt, who I mentioned
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in the podcast all the time. The very first comment
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: underneath it, it just says sell the team. And you
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: know how I know he said that. My fifteen year
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: old texted me in the middle of school a screenshot
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: with the comment circled. Early in the morning. My best
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: friend was trolling the Bears Instagram account and year old
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: woman and my fifteen year old was not paying attention
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: in school because he was on Instagram looking at the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Bears account, then screen grabbing it and sending it to me.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Pass on this game. I've got opinions on the Falcons.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Let's let's go down some of the games here, because
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: we got a bunch that that we should talk about
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Titans Texans. We liked the Texans plus ten and a half.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I still like the Texans plus ten and a half.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I even might like the Texans on the money line.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: And the Titans team has continued to struggle against teams
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: like the Texans. They did it this year already. And
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: then I was listening to Stucky in Raybound on the
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast this morning, and Stucky at all these
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: stats about teams that have to play for something versus
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: teams that don't, and in almost every scenario, like it's
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: a wild swing in favor of the team that has
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: nothing to play for. Yeah, you're gonna get the Coach
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: of the Year, though, Mike Vrabel, are you sure you
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: want to do that chat? That's risky. I'm ready to
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: do it. I'm with you on Houston and the spread,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: but I would not do the money line just because
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: they've already beaten Tennessee this year. We've seen it divisional games.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna sweep a team, you usually you have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: to be pretty damn good. Houston the first time they played,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I think they they beat him, maybe by seven. They
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: picked off Tano four four times in that game and
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: they won by seven. So I don't hate the idea,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: like we said, I like the points I just it's
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the rare time where I'm not gonna be taking the
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: money line just because I just can't see the team
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: winning back to back, especially where they know Tennessee knows
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: they in this. They get an extra week off home
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: playoffs throughout, and they get Derrick Henry Beck after that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: extra week arrest. So yeah, I love what's stuck he's
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: saying here, Like we talked about lapsips, I like fading
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: teams do that need stuff. I'm just I won't be
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: joining chat on that money line. That's a that's that's
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a ballsy bet. I bet they'll be in our money
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: line parlay though, Yeah, because that's yeah, that's that's great value. Yeah.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: So Texas plus ten and a half, we still like it,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Washington football team, that line has moved up. Um, I
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: think we liked it at six and a half. I'm
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: now seeing it. I think seven still take at seven.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I've seen some books to a seven and a half. Obviously,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: we loved the value of a bunch more at six
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: and a half. Giants on my worst graded team, Uh,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: they have a backup quarterback plane in this game. Their
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: head coach talk about Ron rivera Ron Riveria team loves
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the play for them. They've been motivated by them all year. Again,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: for a team that lost their starting quarterback Week one
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: or I don't even think it was Week one, might
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: have been before the season Fits went down that injury.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Be amazing what they've done this year. Washington. I'm looking
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: at two teams that one is completely quit on their
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: head coach. They know the coach is gone. Washington. I
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: know Rivera is gonna be back. I know that this
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: team is They're bad, but they're not one of the
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: worst five teams in football. So you're giving me still
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: seven points against Jake from and this Giant's offense. That
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: what they put up negative ten yards passing last week,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: something insane like that. I'm gonna keep Fadom. I'm I'm
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: gonna take a team that's the team that has not
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: quit yet come Week eighteen. That will be like one
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: of my things for this final week. That's this is
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the biggest one. You're You're literally looking at a team
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: that is straight quit. The Giants have quit. They have
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: not played hard in three weeks. So nothing changed still
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: like Washington, Yeah, Joe Judge has clearly had a little
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: bit of a meltdown. This past week, he called out
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: the Washington football team for fighting on the sidelines refused
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to meet with the Washington media to sort of discuss
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: it and answer questions about it. There's no doubt in
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: my mind Ron Rivera is using this all to build
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: motivation for one last stand for the Washington football team
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: against the division arrival. Uh and embarrass them a little bit.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree. I like the Washington football team
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: here Jacks plus fifteen and a half. So let me
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: read you some of those stats that stuck he had
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: on his podcast this morning, because I thought they were
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: really good and very specific about the Jacks. Uh. Look, well,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you and I talked about this. The Colts haven't won
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: in Jacksonville and forever. That's my favorite stat whatever it
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: was one. Yeah, I'm gonna read some of the stats
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: that I listened to on the Action Network podcast with
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybond and Stucky talking about the Jags was big
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: dogs against the Colts because it was specific to this game.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: I mentioned a couple of them in the Texas, but
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: it's very specific to this game. In addition to the
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Colts not having won in Jacksonville and like seven years
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: inflation on must win teams like the Colts in this spot.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Bookmakers know the public is automatically assuming teams that have
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: something to play for will come in and be more
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: motivated the teams than don't have anything to play for it.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Since two thousand three, teams that are in a must
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: win spot are sixteen and twenty six against the spread
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: faves of more than a field goal ten two against
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the spread. If you need a bigger sample size, since
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: night these teams are against the spread. The Texans obviously
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: fit this spot as well. But this feels like if
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: you're gonna bet the Jags one last time, this might
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: be your best bet. Yep. And we've we've seen the
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: money coming in, the pro money coming in on the Jaguars.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: It's is that the biggest progress show game on the board. No,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: not even close like that. That to me just felt
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: like it would be a pro game where I could
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: see the money coming in on the Jaguars. I just
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: can't see any tickets coming on the Jaguars. If it
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: feels like one out of every ten better, well would
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: bet the Jacks. Like that's how much more bets are
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Colts. So I'm right there with him.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're getting three or four points or
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: three points just because of what you just said that
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: everyone just is like, Okay, the Colts need this game,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: they needed to make the playoffs. When we put them
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: in my thirteen point teaser, do whatever so that they
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: just inflate this line all yup? So what is it? Fifteen?
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Fifteen and a half? That's way too many points. I
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: like I talked lash. I think I said I made
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: this game eleven. I moved to the twelve. There might
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: be a couple of starters out for this Jaguars team
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: on defense. Still too many points if it's over two touchdowns.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I have to take this with the Jaguars. I hate
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: doing it too. They're awful. They lost by fifty points
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: last week. I would love to hear from stuff. But
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: that status team that loses by fifty points, what they
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: do against the spread the following week? Uh? We saw
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: last week Washington football team. They lost by fifty whatever
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: it was the Cowboys, they showed up, they covered. Obviously.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: They are much better and much more motivated team than
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. We're getting two touchdowns though, it's two touchdowns,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's gross, but like Chad just said, this
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: is something mathematic, but we have to do the two
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: biggest pros Joe's games, which we're gonna get to. One
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: of them is the Bills and the Jets. The Bill
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: is a sixteen and a half point favorites. We circled
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it on Tuesday loving the Bills, and the Bills are
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: getting all the money and the Jets are getting all
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the tickets. Rare, rare time where the money is coming
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: in on the massive favorite and the public is backing
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: a huge, huge dog. I think I'm off a little
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: bit on that line too. I had it at twenty
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: scary it's going the other way. I think it's down
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: to sixteen and a lot of books. So I inflated
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: that I maybe give me too much value to this
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Bills team and not given off respect to the Jets.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: But it just felt like it was such a position
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that it's it's just a bad spot for this Jets
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: team coming off a really close loss where Zach Wilson
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: played flawless, and we've seen it time and time again.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: This kid, he'll have a game like that in the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: next week. He'll completely lay an egg. Now he's going
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: up to the frigid, cold Buffalo. I don't really see
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: how this Jets team is gonna be moving the ball
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: on this Bills team. And like again, the Bills are
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: in playoff mode. We've seen it the Bills last couple
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: of weeks. They've been in playoff mode. They had a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown game against Atlanta, and what happened.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: They came out the second half and the absolutely dominated
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Atlanta and every facet of the field dominated them. I
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: don't think I Lanta scored a point in the second half.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: So I get why the public is loving the Jets
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: because again they covered for us last week against Tampa Bay.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: It feels like a trap, I'll give you. The only
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: comfort is the fact that the lines moving down. Maybe
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the bookmakers are saying think of the same thing. It's like, okay,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: maybe we undervalue this Jets team too much, but it
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: only it's only moved by half a point, so it's
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: not that much movement. For what Chad just said, all
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: those betting tickets coming out the Jets. Uh, I'm still
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: on the Bills. I just don't know if I'll be
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: one of my four or five biggest bets this Sunday.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: The other one that we gotta talk about the Rams
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and the Niners, tickets on the Niners, money on the Rams.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: As the weeks going along and the more we've heard
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: about Jimmy, it's not gonna be Jimmy. It does not
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: look like Jimmy's been able to play. His injury seems
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: like it's pretty pretty serious. We rewatched that houstoning with
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Trey Lance Shanahan as what ship does I love to
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: give the guy we was talking about. I do think
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: he's one of the best offensive minds of football. They
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: had three points in the first half. In the second half,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: he completely changed up what he was doing with this
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: offensive tray Lance Trey Lance. My first though was this
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: kid's first initial reads would be always pull it down
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: and run. He was going through reads. He had literally
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: really smart pocket awareness in that second half, taking long
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: shots when you could take it, when it were there
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: stuff underneath you would take that. Just intelligent, very intelligent
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: for what I was not. Again, I thought Trei Lance
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: was just gonna be when these athletes have come in
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: first read not there, pulls it down, runs it. Because
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: he is a really gifted athlete. He's not He's he's
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: way smarter than I thought he was gonna be. But
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: watching that tape, it could be really bad for this
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: four ninis team against the Rams. The biggest thing I
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: saw was that Houston team, if you had a comfortable
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: quarterback and receivers, you were going to pass all over
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: this four uniners team. Their secondary is bad. So looking
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: up the matchups, I looked on the defensive side for
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: this Rams team going up again to our front line
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: of the four nineers, he's gonna have a lot of pressure.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: And he had any real pressure in his face that
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the whole Houston game, no real pressure on him. That's
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: gonna change dramatically. So as much as I like him
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: taking this time making all his reads, it's not gonna
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: be as easy it was against Houston. I told you
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I thought this line should be six. The fact that
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: it's still what is it moves up to four and
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: a half now a little bit. Yeah, we've seen some
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: books at five. I still think you're getting value on
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: this Rams team. Um, I I thought coming in that
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Tennessee would be I mean, uh fows would be more
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: of a public team. That's not that crazy to hear
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: the public's on that, just because in the division matchup
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: like this. People are looking at this Rams team. They're
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: saying themselves, Stafford hasn't played well in weeks. He really hasn't.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: If you go through what Stafford has done these opt
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks, he just has not played well. But
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: this is a perfect spot for him to get right.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: This is one of the worst secondaries in all football.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: So at home, like we said, we're fading Tray Lance
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: on the road making his first road start. I love
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: it that it's still under a touchdown. I do think
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: you're still getting good value on this Rams tea. Yeah,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I totally agree. I bet him at four. Uh, it's
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: creeping back up. So you say get the value. I
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: say get it now because you want to get the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: best of the number and four is a key number,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: So get it as soon as you possibly can. I
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: want to make sure we talked about the games that
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: we talked about on Tuesday. Talked about the Dolphins quite
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a bit real quick. On the Dolphins. I want to
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: make that our big balls better the week, big balls
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: better the week. The Dolphins is a game that very
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: few will be betting with us, and I touched on
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: that last week. Now I'm looking at the Action app
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: and seeing how much money, all the bets everything coming
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: on the Patriots. This is truly no one's betting this,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: this Dolphins team. The fact that it's moved now to
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: six and a half, the money and tickets have only
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: gone up on the Patriots. More people have comment on
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: the Patriot because I think they're getting better number. The
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: book knows what they're doing. They know what they're doing, Chad,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: They're they're laying a little trap here. So again the
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: amount of pushback God as well, it made me really
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: like the Dolphins even more. The fact that it's reverse
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: line moving even though we're off no information other than
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: professional money is coming on the Dolphins. That's the best.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: So still loving at six and a half. Still think
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: you're getting above a key number, which I talked about
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the time. I think six is a key number. Still
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: take that Dolphins a six and a half to trap,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: no doubt. No one's probably gonna winning this game. It's
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick. They ain't gonna be blowing them out. If
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: they win this game, it's gonna be about two or
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: three points. This is just like the Eagles last week,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: where the Eagles were getting all that smoke went up
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: their ass. They went on the road to play an
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: inferior team and they squeaked out a four point win.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: It feels like we're in the same kind of scenario
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: here with this new England team. We're buying alow on
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins after they had to blowout loss. We're selling
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the Patriots after a big win at home now going
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on the road. I love this position. Big balls were
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: on an island. Nobody wants to get the Dolphins with us,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: except professional betters. The other game I want to talk
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: about quickly. You mentioned the Falcons, and the Falcons were
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: our foxhole. It's creeping up a little bit. It got
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: down to four now it's up to four and a half.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: A couple of things for me. Number one, the line
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: movement on this game has been massive. It opened at
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Falcons minus one and a half. Now it's up to
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Falcons plus four and a half. The Saints are getting
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: way too much credit when they're playing a quarterback who's
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: grading out to be amongst the four worst quarterbacks in
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the NFL this year. Cam Newton, Zack Wilson, Mike Lennon,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Taysom Hill. Those are the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Least year. So you're telling me that this guy is
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go on the road and he's going to win
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: by more than five points against a Falcon's offense. That
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I know. They're gonna be missing Kyle Pitts, but they
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: are much much better than a lot of the teams
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the Saints have faced throughout the year, and their defense
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: is serviceable enough against the quarterback like Taysom Hill, who
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: is really just dreadful. I mean, it's amazing that they
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: were able to do anything in any of these games.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Um so to me, Like early in the season, the
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Saints were favored by six at home. Now they're favored
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: by nearly five on the road. There's a ten and
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: a half eleven point swing. That's what was so bizarre
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: to me, Like you just that was the first thing
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: I thought of when I saw that number. It's like,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I get it. Atlantis had injuries, like we talked about,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: they might be out pits. They already they've been down Ridley.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: The mismatch of quarterback, I mean, Matt Ryan. He as
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: much as I wanted to shoot on Atlanta for passing
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: at a quarterback because I thought it had been great
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: they draft a quarterback in that draft. Let him sit,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: learn from Matt Ryan this year, and then they can
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: make him the starting next year. Matt Ryan is probably
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be the start next year. That guy is, I believe.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: On Pro Football Focus they had him at number four
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: for big time throws this year, so he was only
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: behind Joe Burrow, Patrick mahomes Uh, Tom Brady Like that's
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of class he's in without weapons. He's
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: been down weapons all season. I know Coradol Patterson has
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: been incredible for them, um, but he missed a bunch
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: of games too, So I'm right there with e chat
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I Again, I have regret making this my scirtuallep pick um,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: just because I'm losing a little bit of confidence in
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: this Atlanta team as the week goes alonger and the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: more I read about man across the board. They are
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: one of the worst teams. If if Matt Ryan wasn't
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: on their team, they projected out to be two and
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: fourteen right now. That's how important he's been to them
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: as a starter this season. So I just Matt Ryan
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: at home last game. I'll get four and a half
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: against like you just said, the worst quarterback and football
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: this season in Taysom Hill. I gotta take Matt Ryan.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: I'll take him every time. I'll take the points every time.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: I still believe this stays above three. You're getting a
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: good number in Atlanta. This is a field goal kind
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: of game. I don't know which side is gonna win,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna be on Atlanta. Atlanta's moneyline just because
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: that's where the value is. You're getting free points. In
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: my opinion, just because of what you just said. Saints
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: are playing for a playoff position. The public knows that
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: they're gonna bet them up. Atlanta's plain for nothing that
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: people think they're just gonna throw in the towel there.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: This will be a walkover for the Saints team. So
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: it's not surprising. This is um. I mean, if you
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: look at the action the action app, it's kind of
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: been split. We've seen it now the more Moneys since
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that Pitt news come out, more money is starting to
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: come in on the Saints team. So if you get
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: the four and a half, I like it, you might
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: be able to get a five. Um, if this line
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: keeps going in the direction I think it might. Um
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the what was I just gonna say? I totally forgot
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: oh We have been in Atlanta Falcons podcast all season long.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: It's totally appropriate that the last week of the year,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: one of our biggest bets, one of your scrutual let picks,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna be Atlanta plus four and a half. Maybe
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: it gets a little bit higher. Um, I hope it
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: does for everybody. The last game I want to talk about, Uh,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: we've covered a lot of them, but the last game
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Chargers in the Raiders.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be the Sunday night game. Who knows what's
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. You had a little bit of an opinion
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: on two his day. Has anything changed I ended up
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: been I hadn't been in Las Vegas. Just the fact
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: they're at home. I've been disappointed by this Chargers team
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: all season. They started out so good and they just
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: faded and we've seen it. They're run. Their run defense
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: is what's kind of held them back all year. Um,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: They've just had moments where they'll put up fourteen points
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: really quick. This Chargers team, then Herbert, we'll just go
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: three and out, three and out. The other team will
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: get the ball, they'll get a couple of points, and
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: then they'll just keep wearing out the defense of the
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Chargers running the ball. So looking at on paper, I'm
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: shocked this number state at three. That honestly feels like
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: that's the biggest giveaway to me. I knew the public
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: could be coming on the Chargers, so I was assuming
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the book would move this a three and a half.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: They haven't, so that should be a warning signed everyone
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: a standalone game, we know the money will be coming
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: on the Chargers. The fact that they haven't moved it
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: it makes me like the Raiders even more. I want
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: to tell people to bet. If I'm wording, I'm gonna
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: tell people to do that, and it's gonna get the
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: three and a half because we talk all the time.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: That's that's such a key number. So I like Vegas.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I like taking their money. One here to do. But
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: if Waller gets cleared, what do you think this line drops?
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I think it would drop right Yeah, So I've actually
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: seen it. I've seen it at two and a half,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: so that right there, like I'm just thinking about it
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: out loud, you might you might have to take that
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: three because if Waller gets cleared, I got him worth
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: a point of that team, So to me, it will
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: drop down to two. You can see a movie even
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: more if he gets cleared. So in fact, in some
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: places it's at two and a half right now, Yeah, yeah,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: you got I would take the Raiders now that I'm
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: trying to get greeting, get the three and a half.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: But apparently three is the best we're gonna get in
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the spot, So I gotta hate that. But none, that
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: makes sense because like when I'm thinking about out loud,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: if Waller comes back, that's gonna move that line. So
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: the word is he's gonna be back that he's been practicing.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Looks like that's that's the information is getting out early.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: People are betting that number down. So yeah, if you're
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: if you're hearing this now, I'd take that three, got it.
• 31:54
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  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, let me recap
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit, because we went through a lot of stuff.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: We still like the Washington football team. We love, love,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: love the Dolphins plus six and a half big balls.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: We still like the Jags plus fifteen and a half.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: We like the Bills minus sixteen and a half. We
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: like the Texans plus ten and a half, the Rams
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: minus four, maybe even up to five, the Falcons plus
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: four and a half, but you might be able to
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: wait on that. We'll stick with the Panthers played eight
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: plus eight, but that was based on some rumors that
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: don't look like they're gonna be happening. Grab the Raiders
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: now at plus two and a half while you can.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: And I forgot to mention on sharp calls. I did
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: make a little bet on Denver. A pro group has
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: come in. They bed Denver against the Chiefs. I hate
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: betting Drew Lock. I know Teddy's out. They put them
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: on injury reserve, so the season is done, so it
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: is Drew Lock. I trust these guys. They're they're legit.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: There are reasoning behind betting Denver sound They think that
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: this is a look ahead game for Kansas City, Kansas
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: overlooking Denver. They know all they gotta do is win.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Any reasons gonna take his foot off the gas on
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the second half Denver at home, you're getting ten and
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: a half. Take it, I guess, But I mean for
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Saturdays it goes. I'd say I bet I bet more
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: but I just want to put it out there just
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: in case people are wondering what we're doing Saturday. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: have a little bet on Denver. I have much more
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: bet on Dallas. Mike McCarthy has said that his starters
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: will play. The Eagles really have nothing to play for.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Their position is negligible in terms of ability to change
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. They got a ton of COVID, So
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: it's really just gonna be Dallas trying to, you know,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: stay sharp. And I can see that line moving like
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: I don't. I can see you getting the seven now
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: and by Saturday morning it's up to eight, eight or nine. Yeah,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be bet up by the public. Cowboys are
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: one of the most public teams, Chad. I've had a
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: bunch of people keep reaching out about this end of
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the year review that you and Matt Mitchell like to
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: bring up. Yeah, they wanted me just to mention you guys,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: there's only one person here who didn't miss a single show.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: All that person's meet Chad. So I'm gonna go ahead
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and skip that review and just say to you guys,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: do better next year. Days all Yeah, I think, Yeah,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: try to find a day. I didn't even know that either.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I had fans point that out. Yead the loyal listeners. Interesting.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I hate that he's right about that. I was on vacation.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I would still check it. Yeah, I remember a lot
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: of it. There's a lot of adversity, and you never
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: you never asked off the shows. It's probably your worst quality. Well.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: He also he had COVID like every week at least
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: seven times, keep showing up. You've joined from at least
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: three locations. As sucks. I mean, we'll put this in
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: the review, but this might get him, this making him
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: above all d well our review processes uh minus check
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: minus check check plus plus. America does these kind of things.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I just made that up because once upon a time
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: at ESPN and Disney, that was the review process. And
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: my first year at ESPN, I got married in June.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I had started in April, the magazine got married in June,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: so I had my honeymoon planned, took off, and then
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: right before we closed the NFL preview issue, I had
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: an attack of appendicitis. Didn't leave the office for two
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: days to continue to close the issue, but then had
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: emergency appendectomy surgery and was out for ten days. After that.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: So my review at the end of the year was,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: you know, you missed like two weeks in June. I
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: was like, for my honeymoon. Then my boss said, you
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: also were out for ten days in September, and I
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: was like for an emergency appendectomy. So for attendance, I
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: gotta check minus approven once again. Who's the real man here? Again?
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I never missed one show all of Chad missed three
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: weeks when he had his dream job. I think we
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: should pivot to an entirely emoji based review system. I
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: would give Simon the face with the straight line mouth,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: no snow reaction. I also wrote a cover story for
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: ESPN the magazine two days after breaking my back in
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: a in a cab accident. Holy shit, what the fuck
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: your thirties sound wild? Chat the saying in my family
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: growing up, stifle it. Emotion doesn't matter. You stifle it
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: and you go to work. I missed that generation. I
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: am that generation, not you're the worst generation ever. Let's
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: do some money line parlays. I want to put denver
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: In on money line around Robin, but I know no
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: one that listens to the show is gonna bet it,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: so there's no point of going out Denver first, We'll
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: start off with the Bangals getting six points against case Keenum.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Take that money line. Put in the round robin Detroit.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: We we talked about it. We think that's one of
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: those where the value will be on the live line.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: The Green Bay apparently is gonna start their starters and
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: they're gonna take them out throughout the game. Still like
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the money line. If you gotta get to get in
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the round robin early, it's up the plus four at
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: some books. Now take that value. Take that money line
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: round robin for Chad. We will put Houston Texans in there.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Chad loves that one. Uh, because I'm not putting the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Jaguars again. I I'm betting their money line for a penny.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: No chance am I putting that in any money line
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: round Robins. I just do not have any faith in
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. They're awful. So again we have the Bengals,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the Lions, Houston. Still like Pittsburgh, I know that's the
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: public dog this week. The public money is coming on Pittsburgh.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: We're not taking the points, we're taking the money line.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: We're just hoping for a miracle against a bang up
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: Ravens team. Lamar still is not practiced this week. Again,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: a backup quarterback going against that defense in Pittsburgh. How
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: can we not take Pittsburgh's money line in this position?
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: And I guess the capital off. Everyone knows I love
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I love the Falcons, So for me, those
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: two would be a nice bookend. Do you want to
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: end it on the Raiders Sunday night? That's also fun,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: But I'd rather just get over with the four PM
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: and worry about that Veggas game by itself. So to me,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I'd book ended with the Dolphins that Atlanta. One of
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: those two Dolphins to me better value, just because you're
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: getting extra points with them at home. But I love
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: them both both home dogs divisional matchups. We take that
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: every time. I love the Falcons and the Dolphins together.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: They'll tell you I got a new phone chat. I'm
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: excited for you. They only had red. Luckily I have
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: a Philly sticker, so that kind of helps out. But
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of red phones. You're such a
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: fucking john. I heard the most Philly conversation the day
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: made me think of you. This one guy the other guy,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: and the guy said, fuck, use you, fucking fox. It's
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: so good. The Dolphins Atlanta together is plus one on
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the action app Atlanta. Let's roll. All right, We've done
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: our games, We've done our money line parlay, We've done
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: our big balls better the week. Last regular season show
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: of the year, Chad, last regular seas in show of
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the year. Congrats to you, Congrats to me, Congrats to
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: you on perfect attendance. Congrats to Matt Mitchell. Even Matt
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Mitchell didn't you didn't have perfect attendance. I did two
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: DUTs from a pediatric emergency room and I still feel
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: totally ashamed that I most one episode for the holidays.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: I hate you, Simon. It's your lack of commitment will
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: be discussed in your year end review. Matt understood straight
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: faced emoji. All right. This has been the favorites from
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. Download us, rate us five stars,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want, just give us the five stars
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Until Tuesday. I love you