Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | RBC Canadian Open | 6/04/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A

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PGA DFS | RBC Canadian Open | 6/04/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all systems gone clear.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: You lift, yo, yo yo.
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: What's going on? Golf fans, it's your bowl. I g
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: sleep here with our DFS live stream for this week's
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: RBC Canadian Open. We're gonna get you ready for all
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: of your lives with everything you need before Locke to
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: get towards the top end of those GPPs. So hit
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: feel fear to hit me up with any questions that
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: you've got that could be process based or player pool based,
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: any player player deep dives. He guys wants to go
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: through the stats pretty much anything that you're curious about
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: heading into tomorrow, feel free to go ahead and pick
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: my brain on it. But hopefully Wednesday is treating you
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: guys nicely out there and you're ready and stoked to
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: talk about all the golfer this week, just as I am.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: And it's our last week before Oakland and the Major
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: next week is going to be an absolute epic one
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh. I'm gonna be with boots on the ground
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: by the way Tuesday through Sunday next week, so I
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: am very much so looking forward to there. And if
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: you guys didn't know, big Steeler fan, I'm actually from
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: the area. I played Oakmont growing up all the time,
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: so it's gonna be a little bit of a homecoming
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: both for me visiting some friends and family, and I'll
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: play in a golf course and seeing a golf course
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: that I'm super familiar with, so I'm looking forward to that.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: We also have the special live stream that'll be next
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Wednesday for James, which I'm looking forward to as well.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: A lot of fun stuff going on. But this week
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: we've got ourselves one last week, a little warm up
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: before then, so let's make good advantage of it. So
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: we got Johnny down there, go collect as well. Thank
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: you for the kind words. By the way, Alan, we
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: got you down there too. See Floyd's Carolina Reapert, Adam
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: is well Steven, and Brandt's sweaty tryhards that you love
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: to see down there. And I love what Adam said.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: He said, he's still waiting to build our lineups. That's
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: what our guy James would have liked, right, Wait till
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: we get all the information before Locke, and that's exactly
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: what we're gonna do. And he said, Luke, how about it.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Cheers to you, boss man. Let's get after it this week.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: So I love brand which by the way, Brands, we've
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: had a good time on the golf course before we
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: met at the RBC Heritage a few years back. So
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: cheers to you, by Man. So let's talk through the
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: slate this week. So you've got a brand new golf course.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: If you guys aren't already familiar, so if you've looked
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: at like course history for these guys, just to know
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: it was at a completely different venue. And that's usually
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: the case with these National Opens. The Canadian Open is
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: gonna get is going to be played at Toronto for
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: quite a few years. I think for the next two
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: three years they're going to be at this same golf course.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: But this is the first time that we're seeing it.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: So it's seventy four hundred yards of par seventy. If
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: you guys have seen any of the content that I've
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: put out, I don't really see one skill set taking
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: this thing down. I've heard a lot of people saying
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: the Bomber narrative being very popular on a week like this,
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: and you know driving instance, that extra power long iron
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: play I do think is a factor at this golf course,
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: but we haven't seen it in play before. I mean,
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: if you saw the Memorial a few weeks ago, and
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: that long golf course, you probably thought that it'd be
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: all bombers there too, but we know at Jack's Place
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: at the Memorial Miarfield Village that oftentimes it's the accuracy
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: guys that end up playing well. So the reason why
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: I mentioned this off the bat with this new golf
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: course is that this is a really good week to
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: get different to the rest of the field. If the
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: prevailing narrative is putting people on one set of players,
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: and you know, you maybe have a little bit of
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: a different take on how the golf course is going
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: to play, then you can really lean into that. And
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: the last example that we had this on tour was
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: at the Truist Championship was where Philly Cricket Club was
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: the golf course that we were playing, which eerily enough
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: is a very similar golf course to what we have here,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: and the prevailing narrative that week was to play a
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: lot of bombers, the same thing that you're hearing at
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: this golf course, which I would say it's a little
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: bit more fitting for this venue as it is a
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: little bit longer. But that week, after hearing a lot
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: of people sprewing that bomb narrative you had set Straka win.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: You had a bunch of players in that top five,
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: top ten that were gaining a majority of their strokes
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: with your approach play and the putting. So I would
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: say put out a word of caution. I guess for
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of you guys out there, I know a
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: lot of us sweaty tryhards like to take in as
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: much content as humanly possible. We like to think that
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: we know exactly how things are going to play out
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: ahead of times. Just to know that we don't. This
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: is a brand new golf course. Even the players themselves
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: in their interviews don't really have a good sense for
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: how this golf course is going to play. Rory, based
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: in his remarks, made it seem like it was going
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: to be a very straightforward test and if they didn't
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: get any rain, was probably going to play pretty easy.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: Whereas you heard quiz from a few other players, like
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: Corey Connors in particular, that made it sounds a whole
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: lot more difficult. So if these players, even after getting
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: to play it a few times this week for practice rounds,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: still aren't even sure how it's going to play, then
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: how can we as handicappers, people that are playing DFS
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: have any sort of confidence in ourselves. And I say
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: that as somebody that takes a lot of pride in
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: what I do with my golf analysis. So you guys know,
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: it's not just the DFS stuff that I do. I
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: do a lot of prop stuff. For every single round,
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: I'm always trying to project scoring averages, birdy averages, bogie averages,
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: et cetera, and et cetera. And even somebody that is
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: as tuned in as I am, and I don't really
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: think there's many other people out there that are as
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: tuned in as I am. And when it comes to
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: these golf courses, still has my confidence level as like
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: a five out of ten with how I think this
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: golf course is going to play. So for me, especially
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: when it comes to DFS, what we're about to talk
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: up here, it's a game theory week. It's a week
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: to go out there and get different to the field,
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: because if we have no real sense of how this
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: golf course is exactly going to play, then why would
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: we want to share our ownership with the whole rest
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: of the field. And I can tell you that we're
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: going to go through the ownership here in just a
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: few minutes after we get through the weather section that
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: there are plenty of ownership pivots to get to. So
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: if you want to take that stance to go, you
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: know what, no one really knows what they're talking about
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: at a brand new golf course. I'm going to play
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: that ownership game. This is the perfect week to do so.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: And you know, I like to get into the weeds
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: with proximity buckets, trying to figure out exactly where the
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: iron shots are going to be coming from. But even
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: the truth is with that, and I use pro Visualizer
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: to help me with a lot of that stuff, is
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: we don't know where players are going to lay up
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: where maybe they're going to take it over the corner
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: where we don't see it from some of those overhead views.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: And we also don't have accurate tea box representation on
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: any of the overhead views yet. So I've seen people
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: in the industry this week. I'm not going to say
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: any names in particular that you know, putting out very
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: specific data for this golf course. That is all speculative, right,
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: And I think it's great to try and get into
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: the weeds and break down these golf courses. But to
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: act like we have this crystal ball and know exactly
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: how it's going to play is I think a mistake
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: that a lot of people that are newer to dfs
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: don't want to fall into. Right, if you're taut, you're
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: somebody that is very in tuned with these golf courses,
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: then maybe you are in a better position to make
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: that kind of stand on these golf courses. But if
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: you're just listening to a podcast or two out there right,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: your habitual PGADFS player, just know that a lot of
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: those people that are talking about this track are probably
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: going to end up being wrong when it comes to
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: the end of the weekend. There'll be some that get
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: it right, some that end up getting it wrong, And
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: unless you pick the right talent and the right person
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: to follow with that narrative, then it could be a
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: really ugly week for you. So I would say a
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: vast majority of you people out there, and the way
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: that I'm handling my lineups out here is just to go,
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: you know what, we don't know what's going to happen
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: this week. So I went form I want players set
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: are just high upside players in general, maybe miss prices
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: on the board, and then I want the lowed game
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: theory plays. I want to jam in as many of
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: those lowans players in the my player pole as possible.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: That's how I'm handling this sort of slate. So I
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: like to every single time we get one of these
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: brand new golf courses to kind of give that talk there,
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: because I just I see way too many pieces of content,
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: and I don't watch all of them. I only watch
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: a handful of publications every single week, more of the
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: bigger ones, just so I know what the rest of
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: the industry is kind of getting fed with their information
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: and up it pains me every single time that this happens.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: Is everyone wants to feel like they're one hundred percent
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: right about how the golf course will play. And the
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: truth is, and I try to be as blunt and
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: as transparent as humanly possible with my process that no
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: one really has a clue with how this golf course
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: is going to play. And then my guy tamba my
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: guy's hoop they had to show earlier today. I wasn't
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: able to catch it in full quite yet, but I'm
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: assuming it was the same kind of thing that they
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: were talking about, right where they're like, you know what,
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: if all these people are gonna be playing the Bomber
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: narrative out there, then maybe we take a stance against it.
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: So maybe someone in Chat that was able to catch
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: both shows be able to go ahead and let me
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: know if they're going that same direction. But that's normally
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: what I do with these new golf courses. Which speaking of,
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: let's take a look at the weather as well, which
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: I do see a little bit something ruined over the
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: next day or so, so we'll talk about that too.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Let's catch up on chat see if anyone has any
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: hot takes on the golf course. It's going on em
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: and halla Alan says, we don't play donkey chock until
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: we do. I love that you made it. Nick, welcome
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: on in. Yeah, I gotta say these earlier live streams
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: probably do a lot for you. And he said, you
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: think you heard somebody saying something about par five scoring
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: and you're thinking of these only two par fives. That's
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: what I mean, man, And hey, people make mistakes, right,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: so let's not grow people too bad about doing that.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: But you're right, Yeah, I'm looking at par four scoring
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: because there are extra force when we have a par seventy.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: But that's the exact kind of info that I'm talking about, manright, Like,
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: maybe that's an egregious example of somebody getting it wrong,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: but I mean, hell, my take on the golf course,
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: I have a pretty specific take, and I think I'm
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: probably gonna get some stuff wrong too. Just not act
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: like we have that crystal ball, right, he said, Yeah,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: they're pretty much on the same page. Cool, that's good
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: to hear it. I think that's the right take when
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: we have a new golf course, guys is, don't get
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: too bogged down into the weeds and going like I
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: can't play this guy because he's not a good course fit.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: By the way, if that thought goes through your head tonight,
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: get it out of there, right. It could take an exorcism.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Get those thoughts out of your head. We don't know
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: what the course fit is, so I guess if you
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: have to break a tie, you can go with what
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: you think the golf course is going to play to
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: break that tie. But just know that, Hey, a lot
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: of us are going to get it wrong this week,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: that's for sure. But with the weather, I do kind
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: of see something brewing. It's not a massive edge or anything,
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: but tomorrow morning it's going to be raining during play.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: At least with this eighth trip of R forecast, they've
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: got it raining for all but two hours during the
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: morning wave. Which if that's the case, I do think
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: the pmwave tomorrow is going to play significantly easier. The
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: issue is is if you take a look at some
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: of the other modeling for Thursday, it's not calling for
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: as consistent of rain. So for example, this HRDPS has
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: it a little bit more spotty, which in that case
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: it might only be like a quarter of a stroke
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: difference from morning to afternoon. This a NEM model also
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: has it only going on for about half of that
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: morning wave, and some of these models, this one's a
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: little bit more consistent. This one would be an absolutely
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: dreadful forecast for the morning wave. If it's a steady
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: stream of rain the entire time, that might be a
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: half a stroke to a stroke harder the what you
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: have in the afternoon. This weather forecast is spotty, but
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: I would say that the PM wave looks like it
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: might get an advantage, and it is a very very
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: sketchy advantage, I would say, just because it depends on
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: the rain. Being that consistent. But like this ECM model,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: this GFS model, it's calling for pretty consistent rain then
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: entire morning. The thought process with the pmwave tomorrow would
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: be that they're going to be getting very soft conditions.
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: They're also not going to have much wind to contend with.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: You can see sub ten miles an hour or the
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: entire afternoon, and if all that rain comes down, there's
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: a chance is lift clean in place, no wind, sunny conditions.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: Mid sixties is perfect for the temperatures, and that that
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: PM wave nukes and it might not be a massive
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: difference for the first day, maybe it is only a
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: half a stroke, as the rain does look pretty spotty
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: in some of those models. But on Friday morning it
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: kind of flips on its head too, because if we
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: go to the HRDPS or this ANYM model, I guess
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: ANYM is completely loaded in. So let's go ahead and
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: bring that one up. It looks pretty ideal. Friday morning,
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: it's still gonna be super soft. After the inch of
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: rain that they're expecting between today and tomorrow. It's about
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: a quarter inch today, I think half an inch tower
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: point seventy five inches that they're expecting for Thursday, So
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: Friday morning, get expected to still be soft out there.
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: These guys be able to go out there and throw
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: some darts and whatnot. And then as the afternoon goes on,
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: it's not like it gets super windy or anything, but
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: it's going to start to dry out a little bit.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: Right even Friday morning, it's gonna a little bit drier
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: what you had for Thursday afternoon. And I would say
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: that that half a stroke difference that might be there
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: round one might not be there, right, depends on when
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: that rain comes through. If we do get a half
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: a stroke there, then maybe it's not like a quarter
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: of stroke on Friday. Right, those early guys with the
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: softer conditions might get a slight advantage out there. That'sero
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: point seventy five shots there, maybe with the potential to
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: get up to an entire stroke between the two waves.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: If that were to happen, that could be significant, significant
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: enough to play in some lineups. But it's nothing for sure.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: So what I'm personally doing is I took twenty five
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: of one hundred and fifty lineups, so that as one
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: sixth of my large fill GBP exposure, and it only
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: played guys that were in the pmam wave. So those
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: are guys going out late tomorrow after a lot of
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: that rain comes through, and then going off early on
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: that Friday morning tea time. So again it's a very
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: small percentage of my lineups. But in case they end
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: up having to play through an absolute slog tomorrow morning,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: then I want to have some exposure to those sort
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: of lineups. But like the PSA I like to give
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: sometimes with these weather edges, it's a very very slight
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: edge at the very most. In fact, if I was
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: entering a single entry that sort of thing, I would
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: completely ignore it. It would not be a part of
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: my process. And hey, even if I only had like
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: two to five lineups that I was entering, it wouldn't
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: be a part of my process either. It's really only
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: something that I'm considering because I'm a one fifty max
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: player somebody that is entering a large portfolio of lineups,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: and when you have to have the absolute nuts, sometimes
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: a weather edge is nice to be had, but it's
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: very sketchy at the very least. I mean, if it
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: is spotty tomorrow morning, and let's say it is like
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: a quarter of stroke advantage towards the PM guys, then
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: maybe it is like a half a stroke difference between
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: the two days, Like I do think the pmwave, even
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: in that scenario, probably does get the slightly better side
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: of things. But if it's like a quarter of a
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: stroke difference, then that could be next to nothing. When
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: it's all said and done. A quarter stroke difference over
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: a four round stable size like you have with these
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: events isn't enough to put you on guys or to
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: take you off of other guys when it comes to
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: your exposure, and there might be like a handful of
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: players difference between like who makes the cut right maybe
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: slightly you know, four or five guys more from the
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: PM wave that are making it to the weekend outside
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: of like some of your guys in the six K
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: range using it as a fifty to fifty split. That's
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: as far as I would take it when it comes
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: to the weather there. So that's it from that perspective.
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: If you have any specific questions when it comes to
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: the weather, and you feel free to let me know.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Just to further go into that Friday forecast, we had
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: this anym one on here before. GFS is another model
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: that I like to use, and it looks pretty flat
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: on Friday as well, So in the morning sub five
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: miles an hour sustained wins. In the afternoon it's the
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: same with the sustained wind. Gusts are a little bit
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: more significant than what you have in the morning, but
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: really not by much, only getting to eight nine miles
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: an hour. It looks pretty flat on Friday. I don't
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: think there's gonna be a massiveage either way. The only
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: difference on Friday, I'd say between this model than the
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: ANAM that we are looking at before would be the
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: firmness of the greens and them getting a little bit
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: crunchier as the day goes on. But overall not really
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: the kind of main slate where I'm leaning into it
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: all too heavily. I would say for Showdown tomorrow that
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: it's it's a tough one. I would want the PM guys,
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: I would think for Showdown tomorrow, just because they don't
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: have as much weather risk as what you have in
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: the morning, with and with the temperatures getting up to
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: you know, being in the mid sixties will help you
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: out on this golf course because just to remind you,
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: it's seventy four hundred yards and it's a par seventy
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: so this isn't a completely pushover of a golf course.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: It's not short for a par seventy by any means.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: So getting that extra five to ten yards with your
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: drives in the afternoon I think could also matter and
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: make it a little bit easier tomorrow. So maybe the
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: biggest quote unquote edge when it comes to the weather
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: for the first few days might be Round one showdown
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: and playing some of those PM guys, because the vast
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: majority of your casual PGADFS players by casual, I mean
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: ones that aren't really fully deep diving the weather for
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: every given slate. Maybe they're entering a lineup or two
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: into the big five or twenty five dollars GPP on
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: the toilet middle of the night. You guys, get the deal, right.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: People that aren't really sweaty tryhards like you see here
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: in these kind of live streams. They'll just take a
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: lot of the boarding guys. They'll bring up their phone,
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: they'll go to the tea times, try and take some
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: high upside guys in the morning. A lot of times
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: that can make a lot of sense. Usually the greens
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: are softer in the morning, but I don't think that
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: that's the side to play for tomorrow, So I would
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: say like the biggest edge might be to play round
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: one showdown and then to take some of those PM guys.
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: But the next thing we're going to go through is
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: going to be ownership towards the top end of the board,
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: So let's go ahead and bring that up. Now, I've
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: got ownership from eight k plus on here, and now
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: is we're going to go through any player deep dives
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: as well. So if there's anyone that you want me
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: to go through the shots gain metrics with, feel free
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: to go ahead and let me know. We've got the
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: last twelve rounds on here, also the last twenty four rounds,
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: also event history in recent form, which event history is
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: kind of useless, so you probably won't spend too much
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: time there. But if there's anyone that you want me
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: to give you the pros and cons of playing maybe
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: an idea of ownership, go ahead and let me know.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: But before we do so, we're going to talk about
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: ownership from eight k plus and the idea here is
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: to give you guys the thought process and the strategy
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: when it comes to building a player pool. I'm all
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: week you've heard content we already mentioned that and referred
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: to that before, where you probably have an idea of
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: some of your top plays towards the top. Now, the
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: what their aspect is when you're getting here to Wednesday
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: and putting together lineups is we have to consider the
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: game theory, and you might have some chalky guys in
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: your player pool, like, for example, I like the Shane Lowry,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: I like myself some Sam Burns this week. Heck, Roy
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: mccabray is making a few of my lineups as well,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: and he's almost thirty six percent owned. It's okay to
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: have chalky players in your player pool because it's not
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: who you play, it's how you play them. And I
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: know that's something that my guy Tambo says all the time,
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: but it's so true. You can have these guys that
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: are fifteen to twenty percent plus owned in your player
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: pool as long as not using two to three of
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: them together in lineups. You might be able to get
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: away with using two of them together, particularly if they're
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: spend up options towards the top end of the board,
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: but your other three four players in your player pol
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: better be where you're getting different to the field. So
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: just to point out some of that chalk towards the top.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: Rory Mcrobory the obvious piece of chalk. I've got them
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: at just under thirty six percent. It is worth throating
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: that these are from my Patreon page. These are not
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: from the ship at Nation site, so they may may
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: differ a little bit from what they have on their site.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: But this will give you guys a general idea of
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: where the ownership is coming in. So Rory obvious chalk
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: towards the top, but Shane Lowry as Corey Connors at
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: nearly eighteen to nineteen percent at Taylor Pendrith the same
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: Burns also getting up there with the ownership. It's not
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: always the case that in this nine K range we
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: see this kind of polarization, but you're getting it this week.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: And by polarization, I mean that you're getting a pretty
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: decent difference from the high to the low owned players.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Sometimes we don't get very much polarization in this eight
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: nine K range, and the high ownded guys will be
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: like sixteen seventeen percent, and then your low owned players,
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: and I'll put that in quotes. Low owned players might
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: be like twelve to thirteen percent owns. It's still not
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: a drastic change, like Luke Clanton is your lowestcode nine
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: K guy at about a twelve percent eleven point nine percent.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: But you do have guys like a Pendrith Lowry of
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: Sam Burns, as we've already pointed out, that are getting
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: a little bit of extra steam. So it's not to
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: say that they're unplayable. For example, you can see a
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Lowry Burns. They're gonna be a big part of my
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: exposure this week. It's just that when you're using those
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: sort of players, you're not getting any of that differentiation.
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: So if you're gonna be trying to find pivots an
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: offset that ownership, you're gonna have to do it elsewhere.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: But up top you do have a few players that
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: you could get kind of cute with that would include
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: a Love to Go Bear, a Robert McIntyre who's last
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: year's champion, even a Sun jam or Keith. Mitchell and
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: Clanton are a step down in ownership where you know
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: it's not gonna make a drastic change with your game theory.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: But let's say that you really want to sneak in
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: like a seven K guy who's like seven to ten
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: percent owns a good way to slightly offset that would
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: be to maybe take yourself from a Shane Lowry and
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: then get to a pivot like a Robert McIntyre instead.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: It is only a five percent ownership difference, but that
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: little bit helps, especially if you're planning on taking chock elsewhere.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: So up top, I don't think you have to get
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: cute hence by you see me playing some of the
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: more popular options. It's worth noting as well that guys
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: like Lowry and Sam Burns for me, were players that
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: I liked on Monday. They're players that I bet out right.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: You say I took Lowry for the outright twenty two
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: to one, I also bet Sam Burns for the outright
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: at thirty to one on Monday. And my take on
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: chalk towards the top end of the board is, if
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: you liked them on Monday, they were outrights for you.
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: They were guys that you knew were gonna be conviction
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: plays as soon as you saw the pricing, then use
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: them no matter what. I don't see. I don't really
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: see a reason to talk yourself off of those sort
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: of plays. A lot of times for me, it's Scotty right.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: If I see Scotty like winning a golf tournament, or
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: like at worst finishing top thirty, top five, which has
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: been almost every time that he's played in twenty twenty five.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Like I'll commit to him on Monday, I'll say, you
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: know what, I know he's gonna be a super high
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: owned player and I'm gonna use him no matter what.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: What I do with ownership. Outside of that, though, is
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: if there aren't guys that, or should say, if there
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: are guys that are getting a whole bunch of ownership
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: but I wasn't completely sold on them on a Monday,
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: then you're gonna see me fading those sort of players.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: So I know on here I have my player pole
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: blacked out. I do have to keep those behind the
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: table for my Patreon people. But Taylor Pendrith, I'll just
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: tell you guys right now, is not in my player poll.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: And it's not to say that he's a terrible play.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: I actually project him. If you take a look at
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: the fantasy points to tab on that Patreon version, he's
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: actually one of the better projecting plays in this range. However,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I didn't love him on Monday. I like the guys
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: around him a little bit more. When it came to
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: how I was handicapping the golf course. So that's why
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: I'm choosing to play those sort of pieces of chalk.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: So you're gonna pick your guys up top. Doesn't have
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: to be the same guys as me. Like if you
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: loved the Taylor pendrift and you weren't really on as
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: Shane Lowry or Sam Burns, and I think that's totally fine.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: It's just that you should not be playing every single
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: piece of chalk towards the top end of the board.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: And that's even coming as a one fifty max player
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: like myself. I have a lot more lineups than a
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: lot of you probably do to work with. You know,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of people out there aren't won fifty maxing
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: for every single slate. If you are, even if you
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: do have then one hundred and fifty lineup net, you
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: should still be trying to find some of the higher
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: rounded guys towards the top to fade so right, for example,
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: it's not even just a Taylor pendrift that I'm not playing.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: There are a few other higher runed guys here towards
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: the top end of the pricing that I just have
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: to jam out of lineups and try and find some
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: leverage on. So I would say the ownership is a
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: little bit more interesting than what we have for a
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: lot of slates, because there are times, by the way,
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: where this ownership in the nine K range is even
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: flatter than what we have now. And this is a
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: pretty flat slate, like I said, but sometimes it's like
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: sixteen percent versus thirteen fourteen percent and there's no leverage
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: to be had there. And then down here in the
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: eight K range, something that I noticed as well is
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: that the eight K range is a lot lower owned
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: that we typically see. The highest stones player in the
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: eight K range is nine point nine percent, So just
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: getting to that ten percent mark on an Alex Norn
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: your lowest stone to player. So this is an example
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: of a range without a whole lot of polarization. In fact,
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: this is probably an example of the exact opposite of
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: what we had in the nine K range. Right, nine
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: K range was a little bit more spread out. This
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: eight k range is so tight. I mean, your lowest
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: stones guy is Wyndam Clark and he's still six and
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: a half percent out. That's a three point four percent
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: ownership difference from your highest to your lowest stone to player.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: So what that means in this eight K range is
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: that it really ownership almost doesn't matter in this range.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: Just almost play whoever the heck you want to, because
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: even the quote unquote pivots here aren't gonna give you
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: that much leverage. But in general, they're all pretty low owned,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: Like if you took them in twenty five percent of
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: your lives, you could get leverage to the field. It's
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: just that there's no difference really between who you take.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: So for example, if you're a big Max Homa guide
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: this week, you could play them with your big Alex
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Norn guy and you go ahead and do so too.
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: I will say I'm not really a big Norm or
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: a Homa guy this week. They are also the one
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: of the higher owned players in that range. But there
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: are players here that did fit the bill for what
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: I was looking for in players. So I think that
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: there are some low wounded guys you get take in
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: that eight K range, which isn't there are always low
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: oaned guys, I guess in that range. It's just that
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: sometimes we have guys that are like fifteen percent ound
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: in the eight K range, and that is just not
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: the case this week. So there's not really any massive
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: pieces of chalk that you have to worry about there.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: And what it also does tell us as well too,
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: is that a lot of people are going double spend up,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: so they're taking maybe a rory and then another spend up,
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: and if they're not taking a rory, maybe it's a
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Coco or an Open as their first man in, and
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: then they're dropping down to like a burned sun Jay
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: Hall as their second man in. That sort of line
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: up construction and then going down to the seven K
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: range is going to be a lot more popular than
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: people going one guy up top. So maybe starting with
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: the lowry MC and tyre pendrith and then dropping down
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: to this AK range and taking two to three players
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: here because they're all like sub ten percent owns, that
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: just doesn't feel like a very popular sort of lineup construction.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: So if you wanted to get different just based on
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: where you're spending your salary, I think that that would
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: be the way you'd have to do it. I think
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: the double spend up, you're gonna have guys in the
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: six K range that can get you different with the
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: pure ownership in that product ownership, But to do it
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: with the actual lineup construction, it would be this portion
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: of the board. Let's see smash the like mon guys,
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: we guys haven't already. It helps get it out there
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: to even more people. And see what about David Hearn
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: Never heard of the guy. He's been around forever, Zach.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: He's one of like the old PGA tour players that
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: I believe he is in his forties now, so ten
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: years ago was a little bit more of a main stay.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: He's from Canada, usually placed a Canadian Open, I think
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: on an exemption, and that's how he That's how he's
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: in the field this week. Let's see you think I
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: think you have mentioned looking at driving accuracy. I have, yes.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: If it's when the morning how deep is he said?
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: With how deep the rough is, I think is what
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: you're saying, would that be an advantage? I would say
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: that's that is why I was looking at driving accuracy. Steven,
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: Maybe I misinterpreted your question. It was kind of tough
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: to parse through that there. But yeah, with how wet
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: it's going to be, I do think that's going to
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: put an emphasis on driving accuracy, and it would be
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: that way for the first two rounds. Like that water's
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: not just going to evaporate out of nowhere by the
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: time you get to like Friday evening. I do think
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: it's starting to dry out a little bit, but so
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: are the greens, which might overcome that sort of difference.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I do think driving accuracy matters, and even
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: more so where they're getting that sort of rain that
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: would even add on top of that. Can it take
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: a look at Vince Waley, For sure? I can. So
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: let's just go through the the different tabs that we
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: have over here, So we'll start with his recent form.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: I think this is why some people are looking to
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: play him. He's had really good putting stats, also gaining
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: off the tee. The one red flag I guess we'd
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: have to point out would be the approach play. He
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: is losing in that category, And then if we go
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: to the last twenty four rounds, it's the exact same
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: He's not gaining as much with the off the tier
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: of the putter, but in terms of like where he's
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: gaining and losing, it's the same exact kind of stat profile.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: So you kind of know what you're getting with Vinceueli.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: This golf course, I actually I don't think is a
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: terrible setup. For him whatsoever. The only reason that I
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: have against playing of Vinceuele is that you are playing
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: paying a premium for him. He is seventy four hundred
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: dollars now. He's normally like a lower seven K guy,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: even a middle six K guy, and a lot of
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: the different tournaments that you have, So he's also going
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: to be a little bit higher owned for that reason
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: as well, because he's not in the six k range,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: not gonna be getting him at like one to maybe
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: two percent ownership. Now it's gonna be at like four
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: to five percent. So I usually choose to play guys
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: Whaley when they're going to be unowned, when they're in
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: the six k range and no one's going to be
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: on them. That's not to say that he's unplayable, though, right,
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: That's just my personal role with Vince Waley. I've you know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: he's been around forever, He's been around like six seven
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: years at this point, and that's just kind of been
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: my role for him ever since he's joined the tour.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: Will I do have to say that that form we
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: just went through is some of the better form we've
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: seen from him for quite some time. Kevin, You, okay,
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: we could take a look at his stats as well.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: Of course, let's bring up a good old Kevin, who's
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: yetchen you on some of the different sites out there.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Losing on approach, he's gaining off the team, gaining with
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: the putter. So that's the last twelve round. Let's go
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: to the last twenty four. Now, last twenty four is
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: a little bit better with the approach play, so I
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: do like to see that, but the putter does go
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: from positive to negative. So Kevin, you is always a
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: strong driver of the golf ball if you're a believer
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: in the bomber narrative, which I'm okay with this week,
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: I don't want to say that being a bomber is
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: a bad thing, especially I know that I said that
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: being a soft golf course the rain kind of helps
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: driving accuracy. It also helps power to So I think
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: the really good drivers of the golf ball, people that
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: can hit long and straight, are going to be at
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: a massive advantage for the first few days because not
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: only can you avoid the rough which is going to
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: be gnarmally, but you're also going to be able to
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: hit the ball further and take on the golf course
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: that's playing a little bit longer. Kevin used exactly that
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: he's an elite driver of the golf ball. He hits
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: it long and straight. Last twenty four round Staples size
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: is a relatively large sample. It's what six full events
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: of shots gain metrics is gaining a lot more than
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: everyone else in this range. So I kind of like
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: Kevin you for that reason. I think he's a high
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: upside ball striker. Jake Knapp too, He's that same sort
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: of player, and I kind of slightly prefer Jake nap here.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: He's the player that you'll see in my exposure this week.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: But Kevin used that same kind of course fit, so
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: I'd have to give him like a six, a six
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: and a half out of ten, and the shots gain
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: metrics are the reason for that, and it just the
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: course fit too. Like I know I mentioned before not
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: going too overboard with the course fit, but based on
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: what I'm looking at, I'm not against it. Luke for
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: a round one showdown with the two par fives being
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: one in eighteen? Am I putting anything in the guys
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: starting on ten? Ooh, that's a good idea, Alan, I
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: didn't really consider that until your question, to be honest,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: but now that you pointed it out. I think there
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: could be something to that. I'm assuming that the birdie
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: rate on both is going to be around forty fifty
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: percent plus, especially a whole one. Whole one a little
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: bit easier than whole number eighteen. So yeah, maybe you
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: could use use it as a tie breaker, Alan, But
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: I usually like to point out that even when you
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: have a perfect birdie streak situation, that it's like a
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: one fantasy point difference at most between the two different waves.
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: So don't go overboard with it, like you'd only use
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: it when you're trying to choose between two players and
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: you can't parse between them. It's just super close on
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: a lot of the different categories you're using. You can
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: make maybe make that like check number four or five
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: that you're using, but it certainly shouldn't be like check
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: number one or two that you're using. You should be
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: going through the rest of your process before getting there.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: Could it take a look at Bennie and I absolutely can.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: I do want to say we're gonna talk about him
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: in full little bit later, so actually want to do
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: it now or we don't have to do it in
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: any sort of order, right, it's my show we can
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: change it up. We want to. Yeah, Benny and seventy
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: four hundred dollars, he's only five point three percent owned.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: I love him this week. I mean, I know he's
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: been playing terrible golf. That's why he's cheap now, that's
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: why not a lot of people want to play him.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: He's number one twenty six in my model ranking. But
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: this is a bi lo spot, right, This is a
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: long term talent sort of play. If you use a
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: fifty round sample size, which I don't usually use for
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: a lot of my DFS projections, just a little bit
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: too far out for me to use personally. I will
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: take a look at it though, to get a sense
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: of a player's actual talent level, particularly somebody that's in
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: a downswing like Benny Ann. Benny Ann is a nine
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars golfer. I mean, realistically, he's better than Harry
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: hall Is. We all know that, especially if you take
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: a look like the last fifty to one hundred round
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: sample size and he's seventy four hundred dollars and no
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: one's playing it. Yes, I love Benny in this week. Now.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: The shots game metrics are terrible, right, There's a reason
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: why he's so far down here, losing on approach, also
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: losing at the putter. But some of these guys just
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: have a bad run of it and happens to everyone.
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: Right now, everyone's gonna be firing on all cylinders their
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: entire life, for their entire career or anything like that.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: And when they bounce back, you can get them at
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: low ownership, a lower price tag like this. That's why
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: I'll take a shot on him. Now. Would I use
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: him as a conviction play in my single entries? Probably not.
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: That would be a very risky option if you'd use
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: a Bennie in that sort of format. But in what
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: fifty max poll in the large five or twenty five dollars,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: you bet, mass I'm gonna be playing some Beni in
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: this weekend. In fact, you can see I've been him
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: for a top ten at plus seven hundred as well.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: So I like the way you're thinking. Man. I just
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: hope that the ownership stays low, because that's kind of
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: the idea there, right is take them at low ownership,
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a bounce back spot and see
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: if he can get us a top five to top ten.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: Mister Tom Kim, I see you want to look at
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: Tom sim as some people would call him, let's go
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: to the last twenty four rounds, because he's been playing
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: the same way for quite some time. He's just close,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: but he's not quite yet because these shots game metrics
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: with the ball striking are worrisome. If you take a
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: look at the last twelve measured rounds, he's gotten a
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: little bit better, but not by much. Right, He's still
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: struggling in those two categories. So he's been very consistently
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: shitty with how he's hitting the golf ball. Just like
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Benny Ann, this is the sort of player that at
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: some point you'd expect to bounce back. And he's a
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: multiple time tour winner. Right. If you're going to take
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: a bounce back candidate, I think there's much worse players
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: that you could do it with, especially somebody that has
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: so much top five, top ten upside as a Tom Kim.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: And just to remind you, guys, within his last twenty
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: five starts on the PGA Tour, he's got five top
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: three finishes out of those twenty five starts. So let's
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: not actually Tom Kim is so completely lost at this point,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Like sure has last five to six events, I don't
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: think he has better than a top twenty five during
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: that stretch, so it has been the absolute struggle bust
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: for him. But that happens to even the world's best
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: players at times. So yeah, large soal GVP play probably
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: wouldn't use him in single entries, but he's got the
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: kind of talent level to get back to it at
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: some point. What do the shots game stats look like
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: for Justin Rose? So last couple of weeks they've taken
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: a downturn with the ball striking. He's had a rough
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: go at it in some of these longer golf courses,
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: losing across the board actually over his last twelve rounds.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: So not much positive there, But let's zoom out a
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: little bit see if he can find something a little
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: bit better for Rosie. So yeah, over the last twenty
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: four rounds, so we double that sample size. He's a
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: positive on approach, which is great. That shows the iron
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: player was really good before it went way into the negative.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: Just a little bit into the negative off the tea,
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: which considering that he was so negative over the last
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: twelve rounds, he was hitting the ball really solid before
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: it went sideways, And same thing with the short game
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: right a lot closer to the positive there, So this
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: is a BILO spot. He's another player that's really struggled lately,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: and I would say at a golf course where we
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: kind of don't know what to expect, I like those
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: bounce back candidates. So yeah, Jay Rose six and a
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: half seven out of ten as well. Hey, Luke thoughts
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: An EVR and Sam Ryder. So EVR, by the way,
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: he qualified for the US Open. He's playing some really
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: good golf right now. Ball striking stats are otherworldly, just
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: to show you, guys, exactly how he's hitting it to
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: go to the last twenty four rounds, which, by the way,
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: his starts haven't even been that great outside of the
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: second place to with Scotti Scheffler. But over that massive
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: sample size full six events, he's gaining across all four
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: stat categories. So that's amazing for EVR. I like the
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: momentum with him qualifying for the Open this week and
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: then Sam Ryder. His stat profile isn't as favorable, but
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: I still like him around this sort of golf course
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: just because he's not getting a lot of ownership. Now.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: The shots gain metrics are a little bit putting heavy
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: over the last twenty four rounds. Maybe zoom into the
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: last twelve. But see how he looks over that sample size.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: Not as putting heavy. He does have a little bit
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: more significant gains with the approach play. He's a five
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: and a half six out of ten on rider but
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: EVR six and a half seven out of ten. I
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: really like him. Cougar Collins is the ultimate sleeper. Yeah,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: he's sleeping with all the cougars up there in Canada.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: I guess hell of a name. Guys got to have
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: an absolute even you know the way to put He's
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: got to have a lot of one liners with that
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: sort of name. Thoughts on Hodges, he's popping for you
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: despite the not great results overall, doesn't look terrible. I
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: actually agree with you there, Adam. He's somebody that I
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: am using in lineups. You may have actually caught that
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: when we're scrolling through this before. I took him for
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: a first round leader at one hundred to one. He
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: is one of the best round one scorers that we
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: have on the PGA Tour. In fact, if you see
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: anyone on the left over here where the first round leader,
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: bet it's all because they're the top five first round
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: scorers on tour this year, that was Harry Hall, Keith Mitchell.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: Of course he is always first round leader, so of
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: course I had to bet him, Lee Hodges, Putnam and
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: who is the other one, Sam Ryder at seventy five
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: to one. If you take a look at the round
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: one scoring list, they're literally the top five on tour
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: not named Scottie Shuffler. So just to get back to
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: the Hodges play, I like that aspect. He is a
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: relatively aggressive player and if you're a believer in the
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: long iron driving accuracy course. So that's kind of why
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: I like guys like Shane Lowry this week, also why
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: I could see myself playing guys like Leage Hodges and
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: Andrew Putnam. Then you could play them and he's low owned,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't think your process is crazy for
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: getting onto a Hodges. If you're looking at the last
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: fifty round stable size, it's going to put you onto
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: those sort of guys. What is the lowest priced guy
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: that I'm playing in why? So I'm not going to
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: give you the exact name, David. I do have to
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: keep some of that stuff behind the paywall for my people.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: There's a place where you can see exactly who it is.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: But it's sixty five hundred dollars is as cheap as
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: I'm going, and there are two players at sixty five
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars I'm playing. So and the one thing I
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: will add with that is I'm not playing any of
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: the random guys that we've never seen before. So that
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: would include like the Cornferry Tour, guys that haven't played
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: on the tour before. That include all these random Canadians
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: that I don't even knew, I didn't even know existed
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: before this week. I'm not playing any of those sort
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: of guys. So my recommendation if you're dumpster diving down
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: low is to play guys that are tour players, Play
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: guys that you've actually seen before, and not people that
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: you heard on a podcast going like, oh, he's been
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: really good on the PGA Tour Canada's crap, he's been
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: good on the PGA Tour Canada's because that tour is
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: like the Single Way tour compared to the Corn Faery.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: It's not even remotely as strong is what you have
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: in the Corn Fair Tour. And then even if you
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: do it on a Corn Fairy tour, for me lately,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: that doesn't even mean that much. Like I know, I
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: know it's a very competitive tour, but like even the
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: best guys on that tour aren't world beaters out here
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: on this tour, let alone worth playing in your DFS
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: lineups just because they have a few top tens, top twenties.
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: So yeah, my recommendation David is don't go too far
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: into that range. I cut it off at sixty five
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars. And there's one guy and I'm not gonna
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: say this name because Nick, he gave me one sleeper
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: playdown low that I'm not using. But I actually could
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: see playing that's not a PGA Tour guy other than
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: one guy in that six k range, And I'm not
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: gonna name who he is because I'm not steaming him up. Nick,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: don't worry. I couldn't see playing anyone else there. They're
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: all just like randoms, like David Hern for example. Don't
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: we had the question about him before? Maybe he pops
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: for one round. I think showdown would be the place
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: to use this sort of guys. I wouldn't do it
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: in your main slate lineups. Seeing a lot of people
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: looking at Fox Higgs and Smally and Schmid. Do I
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: see any similarities with those players? I guess the distance.
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, Higgs isn't super long, but Fox smaller and
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: Schmid are. They're also good long iron players. Higgs isn't
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: short off to tea though Andy is a good long
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: iron player. So yeah, it's probably those two things. More
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: likely the long iron play that's really tying those four together.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: I'm not against it. I've seen a lot of them
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: on betting cards this week, so I'm assuming that's kind
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: of what you mean with that. It's the form Fox
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: is really hitting his irons well. Same thing with Harry Higgs, Smally,
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: not so much. Schmid. You know he's playing well, right,
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: he almost won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. It's probably
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: a lot of that. What am I thinking with the Canadians,
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: I think they're overrated this week. I hate to be
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: that guy, and sorry to any of my Canadian brethren
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: that are watching this up north, but I mean they're
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: over priced this week, right, They've they got the Candida
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: bump as you always see for this event, like guys
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: like Nick Taylor, Mackenzie Hughes, Corey Connors. They're all probably
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars too expensive. I would say, not that
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: they're unplayable, though, I mean they're playing really good golf,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: especially Corey. Corey is in my player pole by the
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: way I'm using him this week, but even like a
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Hughes Nick Taylor, I mean Nick Taylor almost won the
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: week before. They're usable, but they're just expensive and you're
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: gonna be taking some ownership on them this week too.
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: Because people love playing Canadians at the Canadian Open, which
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: you know, it's a narrative thing. Maybe it's people playing
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: their hometown guys. I couldn't blame, but it doesn't always
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: work out that well. It's a lot of pressure playing
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: at home. It's tough, and I fully understand that. I mean,
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: if I was a Canadian playing at home, there would
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: be a lot of pressure on me. Thoughts on Harry Hall,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: great form, Kevin, So that's really the one thing with
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Harry Hall that I'd point out is he's got over
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: two shots games per round over his last twelve rounds.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: If you want an informed player, he's gonna cost you
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: a bunch. At ninety two hundred, you definitely get that.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: Once you get past burns, you feel like you want
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: to pivot from anyone chockey. You feel like there's seven
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: guys in the seven they're as good as the eights.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: I agree with you on that, Steven, Yeah, I'd say
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: the six and seven k chalk is really where I'm
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: making my stands too. Thoughts on Nick Taylor and Connor So, yeah,
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: I like Corey Connors this week, So I'm playing Corey
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Connors myself. Doesn't mean you have to do so yourself.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: He is coming with some ownership. That is the issue
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: with these Canadians, right, is that you're gonna be getting
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: the extra four to five percent ownership and the extra
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars price tag on almost all of them.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: Corey Connors, though, is the one that's appropriately priced, Like
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: he should be ten one hundred dollars. He's one of
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: the best players that we have in this field now,
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: Mackenzie Hughes. Should he be eighty nine hundred dollars, Hell no?
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: Should Nick Taylor be eighty eight hundred dollars? Hell no? Right?
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: But are they playing decent enough golf, like especially Nick
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: Taylor at eighty one hundred dollars to consider playing him
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: for sure, especially because he's won this event before. You
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: have three percent. David hern in the minimax, you're saying
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: those who are not shipping nations should join and joint.
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: Figure out why. I'm guessing it's because he's on the
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: course rankings, right. I don't want to spoil it for anyone, Adam,
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: but you know what, that could be a move. He
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: has played these golf courses up in Canada pretty well,
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: so I don't want to crap talk him too much.
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: He could definitely get there. He said, you're fading all
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: the Canadians. Trevor Cohne is your sleeper pick. Trevor Cohne.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: He qualified for the US Open, so he has that
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: going from kind of like an EVR. And I do
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: have to say too, I've looked at some of the
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: shots game metrics on Cone this week. Don't ask me
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: why I deep dive you even the nasty place towards
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: the bottom. He's got really good approach stats, so I
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: don't think it's the worst thing I've ever seen. Like
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: he's a six out of ten, which is really rare
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: for our Cone. Cone is normally a two or three
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: out of ten. Thoughts on Mitchell and Clanton really good
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: drivers of the golf ball Bryan. With the fact that
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: they're getting the rain, I think they're even better courts
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: fits here, at least based on how I'm breaking it down. Right,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: we only know so much about this course, so I
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: always like to add that there, like I could be
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: completely wrong about how I'm breaking this thing down, but
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: with the added moisture out there, being long and straight
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: is how I see there being in advantage. Mitchell is
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: one of the longest and straightest guys on tour. Luke Clanton,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: his superpower is his driver. That's by far the best
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: part of his game. I'm liking that for those two,
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: and that's why I'm playing them this week. Well, Chandler
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: one through ten oof, I mean instant reactions that two
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: or three out of ten. But let's look at the
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: shots gain metrics. I know he's been playing a lot
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: better golf than a lot of these other guys at
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: the bottom end of the board, So I have a
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: feeling that the ranking is gonna go up here after
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: we take a look at these stats. Let's see where's
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: if I could spoil his name right, it begin to
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: come up. We gotta put the end before the d
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: so last twenty four rounds not that great. I actually
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: thought that they'd look a little bit better. Let's go
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: to the last twelve. Maybe it's a little bit better
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: for good old Chandler. Uh, not much losing in three
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: of the four categories. I hate to say it, but
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: three out of ten. I mean, there's just not much
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: to latch onto here, right, he gains around the green.
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: That's where he's into the green over the last two
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: sample sizes. It's gonna be a.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: No go for me.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, three out of ten, Manid, sorry for the typos.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: You actually have a vision disability. All good men, he said,
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: but your fingers forget that. Sometimes we usually figure out
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: what you're saying, Steven, So no apologies there. I just
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: want to make sure that I'm getting your question answer
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: for you correctly. So if I ever don't get it,
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: just feel free to let me know afterwards why I
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: got it wrong. Right, it's going on, Tom says on
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: tears contest, do I consider ownership? Oh? I don't play tears, Tom,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: So I'm not the best person to ask for that.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: I like to be as transparent as possible with questions, right,
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: especially ones that I'm not an expert on. However, just
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: kind of thinking through. Yeah, I mean ownership would matter
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: because you still have to leverage and try and beat
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: other people and move up in this contest. It's just
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: so hard to get a gauge for that ownership because
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be different than largel GPPs. So that's a
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: good question, man. Maybe someone in chat has a better
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: answer for you that has more experience than playing tears,
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: But for me it matters. It's just so hard to
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: know where that ownership's gonna come in. Does Shuel Damon
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: have an upside at sixty eight hundred, Yes he does.
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: He's got some of the best iron form in the field,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: so I'll be playing him in the feud lineup. Can
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: a deep dive Thor biorn Olison? I for sure can,
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: And I really like Thor this week, so I like
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: where you're going with this, So let's go back up
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: to the top. He's gaining both off the tea and
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: on approach, actually about a stroke par round over his
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: last twelve rounds, and if we zoom out to the
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: last twenty four rounds, excuse me there, it's getting about
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: a stroke per round as well. Er point four to
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: six off the t zero point five to two strokes
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: per round, but the approach play. He's one of the
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: most consistent ball strikers that we have in the field.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: You're gonna be in Kingston next week, and just realize
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: today that you're only four and a half hours from
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: the course. Thinking he might have to make it one day,
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: he should did. I mean, I'll be out there all
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: four days. You want to come, say hi, grab a
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: beer two feel free, man, It would be a whole
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: lot of fun. I gotta say that golf course, this
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: US Open, it's one you probably won't want to miss.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: I'd say, can you take a look at Nico Hoigard?
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: I absolutely can. So. I like the long iron play
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: for Payguard. I like the ball striking play for him.
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: But he's been a little bit inconsistent lately. He hasn't
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: had as many of the top end finishes as we'd
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: maybe hopeful. Let's see if I can get him to
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: load here. So there's Rasmus. It's fine Nico so gaining
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: ball striking over his last twenty four rounds. It would
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: go to the last twelve rounds. I believe it's the
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: same exact thing. In fact, about a neutral off the
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: tea and then gaining about a half a stroke around
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: to the iron play. If you're a believer in the
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: Bomber narrative and long iron play and you're probably playing
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: some Niko huayguard, I'd say he fits those two boxes
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: rather well. How am I feeling about Matt McCarty? Are
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: you my McCarty since is tingling Ooh so no, they're
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: not alan to answer your question. I don't really have
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: that gut feeling on him this week. I've had a
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: pretty good sense for him on his tour career so far.
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: I will say, though, that Matt McCarty is a stud.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: Like I'm not playing them this week, but if you
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: were even half considering using them, play them, you're not
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: gonna be disappointed by him. Like, if he makes the cut,
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: he's gonna make a crap ton of birdies. He's a
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: really good putter, he's a good iron player. He sets
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: up plenty of looks and then converts quite often. He's
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: a He's somebody you're gonna see me playing a lot
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: more often than most people. How do I find the
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: top first round leader?
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Guys?
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: Of course, So go to pjatour dot com, Bryan, click
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: on stats, go to scoring and then if you scroll
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: down you can find the round one scoring. That's what
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: I do for first round leaders. I think it's I
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: know it sounds really simple, but you play the guys
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: that probably really good in round one and it might
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: end up working out. Random Canadians. Good band name Scoby, Yeah, dude,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: this is what the Scoby guy down towards the bottom
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: right from Canada. He'd be the one guy to go
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: off this way, Matthew Scobi. He kind of sounds like,
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: who's that kicker that used to play, like Jake Scobe
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: or something, the kicker for the Steelers. You just missed
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: every freaking kick. Luckily I've forgotten his name because he
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: was so terrible. Is Connor's my favorite Canadian? He is,
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: but I'm not playing that many Canadians, so he's one
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: of the only ones I'm actually playing lol. Or he
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: could yep, that's the Or he could on David Hearn
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: for sure, Shane Connor's or Hall for one and done.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: So I'll give you some pros and cons on those.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: So Shane Lowry's gonna be either the most pop or
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: second most popular to Corey Connors out of those three.
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: So if you're looking to get different. Let's say you're
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: starting way behind Kevin, you'd go Harry Hall because you're
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: not gonna see that many people using Harry Hall, and
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: they're one and nuns this week. So if you have
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: a lot of ground to make up, you go in
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: that direction. But those first two are better fits. So
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: if you're in contention or towards the top end of
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: your one and done, I'd probably go Shane Lowry. I
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: think Corey Connors as my number two, just because I
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: think Shane's gonna be utilized a little bit less. And
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: yeah it's Josh Scobe. Oh my god, I don't I
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: never wanted to see that name again as a Steeler fan.
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: He lost us like three games in a row. I mean,
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: he got booed out of town. I've never seen somebody
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: that hated on by a fan base before. Being a
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: Kickers a really tough job. Guys. You have one bad
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: week and you get crucified. It's feel bad. Did we
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: talk Rico Joe? So we haven't talked him yet. We'll
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: talk him now. Wayne. He fits a lot of the
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: advanced stats that I was looking at so heading into
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: this week doing my course preview on bet the number.
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: He fit a lot of the stat categories that I
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: wasn't really expecting him to fit, Like, for example, he's
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: a good bent poe putter. He's obviously get off the
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: t player. But if we go to the last twelve
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: measured rounds, I mean, this form is kind of sneaky here,
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: he's gaining a bunch off the tea. The putter has
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: really held him back one point two strokes into the negative.
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: But if this is a surface for for this year,
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: he's gaining about a half a stroke a round. That's
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: been his baseline in twenty twenty five on bent grass,
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: and it's gonna be a really good week for him.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: So I'm a I'm going to six out of ten
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: on Rico, which, considering that he's been playing some crappy golf,
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: is actually pretty good. How do we feel about Castillio?
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: Oh boy, one of my favorite plays. Did he's actually
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: one of my value plays seventy two hundred dollars. I
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: bet him for a top twenty at plus three seventy five.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: He's getting some ownership, which is unfortunate because I was
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: hoping to get him at sub five percent, but seven
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: point seven percent ownership isn't enough to draw me off
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: of them, so I'll be using them in quite a
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: few of my builts. All right, let's talk about few
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: other plays I wanted to point out before we round
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: this off with a little bit of strategy. So we
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: talked about Jake Knapp a little bit before, but I
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: did want to point him out as one of the
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: top ten bets that I'm placing. And more importantly, it's
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: not that I'm going to give you guys your player
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: poll for this week. In fact, in an ideal situation,
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: i'd want to lower own Jake Knapp right, so you
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: don't have to play them. In fact, i'd prefer you
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: not to so that I could get lower ownership on them.
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: But I do want to point this out just to
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: give you guys the thought process right in what I'm
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: doing here, because Jake Napp, he's about average to below
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: average ownership in this range and he fits that predominant
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: narrative or he's a bomber. He's a really good long
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: iron player, yet I haven't heard him talked up by
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: the masses, and the effect of that is that he's
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: much lower owned than guys like a Ryan Fox are.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: Then guys like an Alex Smalley are who may have
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: slightly better stat profiles. But Jake Napp, for example, he's
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: gaining in the three T degreen category. So the reason
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: why I point out a Jake Knapp here is not
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: to say that you have to play him yourself. Like
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: I said, I would rather be lower owned. So unless
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: you love them like, don't use them. But the idea
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: is if you can find people that fit that prevailing
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: narrative but aren't as highly owned, that could be a
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: way to still play that sort of an idea, a narrative,
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: a course fit and not be as chalky as a
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: lot of the other people there. And you know another
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: example of that would be a Benny Ann I know
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: we had the question about him before. He's a bomber
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: who's usually a really good long iron player, So I'm
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: taking a shot on him and only about five percent ownership.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: As Sam Ryder, I mostly wanted to point him out
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: because he was a first round leader bet but a
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: Nicolai hoyguard, right, I know we just had the question
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: about him. He's in my player pool too, because he's
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: not the mega chockey guy like an EVR. I know,
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: I said that he has a really good stat profile.
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: He's coming in with all this momentum, but everyone sees
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: that he's going to be by far the most popular
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: player at this portion of the board. So if you
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: want to get a little bit different, and it's not
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: that much different because Hoyguard still is eight percent owns.
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: That is higher ownership than a lot of the other
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: guys around him. But give me a player that is
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: playing just as good as golf, especially with the iron play.
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: Hoyguard's actually been better with the iron play than evr
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: over that recent stretch, and he's the lower owns between
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: the two. So it's to give you guys perspective into
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: I'm looking for. I'm still using a lot of the
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: same kind of stats that you see around the rest
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: of the industry. I'm just not playing the megach hockey
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: guys at a golf course that's brand new. So Namilion
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: Agrillo fits that same sort of narrative as well. He
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: is about eight percent owned, so kind of like Hoyguard,
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't call him a low owned player in this
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: seven K range, but he's one of the best iron
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: players that we have in this field, coming in with
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: really good form it's a top twenty model ranking. Play
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: the kind of guy that I'll play, especially when he's
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: a little bit lower owned than some of the other
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: people's favorites in this range. So Elie Hodges and Andrew
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: Putnam I pointed those two players out before as spots
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: while I'll take I'll take a look at the last
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: fifty round sample size and play that long term talent
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: level as opposed to their recent form. Those are the
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: kind of guys that you'll see in my lineup, since
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: there's not a whole bunch of six K guys that
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: you're gonna see in my player poll. In fact, I
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: think there's like ten guys in the six K range
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: that I'm using in my lineups, which is less than
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: what I typically have this seven K range. Though I
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: think there's a lot of really good players towards the
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: bottom end of the seven K range. Hodge is putting examples.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: Grillow obviously one of those guys that I'm using as
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: well that you can find the slight pivots to the
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: rest of the guys around them that I think are
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: even better players. A lot of these guys like a
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: Quaid Cummins, I'm using like I know he doesn't seem
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: like a great plan paper, but he's good on this
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: bent poe a surface also has really good shots gained
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: ball striking stats over the last few events. This is
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: where I'm rounding off my lineup, so I'm not going
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: the whole way down to these random guys at the bottom.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: Like I know, we've had questions about a lot of
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: these guys down here. It's just really it's a really
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: tough scene. I don't want to play any of these guys,
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: like most of them suck, most of them aren't in
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: good form, Like there are I guess a couple exceptions
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: to the role, Like maybe I could see playing like
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: two three guys that are below sixty five hundred dollars,
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: but you're not gonna see it in my exposure this week.
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: So hopefully it gives you guys an idea of exactly
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: where my exposure is coming in to give you guys
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: an idea of exactly what to look for in your plays.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: And as I mentioned before, all of this is found
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: on my Patreon page, So if you guys want to
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: see all my projections, player poll and all of that,
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: you guys can find that over there. But what we're
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: gonna do next is we're gonna talk through some strategy
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: before we round this thing off and I get started
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: with my prop stuff. So first off, with the contest
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: selection segment, a lot of your main contests are already filled,
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: but you do have some secondaries that are posted. So
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: for example, you've got this Drive the Green, which is
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: the secondary. We also have the secondary driver as well. Sorry,
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: wrong contest the secondary Sandtrap or is that a secondary
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: of the primary. I'm guessing that's the primary because it's
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: two hundred data first. So yeah, if you're looking to
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: get into one of the primary GPPs, you still have
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: one of the two left. It is the twenty five
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: dollars though, so it's gonna cost you a lot more
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: to want fifty max that This smaller five dollars though,
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: isn't the worst thing I've ever seen. It is a
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: little top heavy with it being a fifth the first place,
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: but it's pretty much the same thing as what we
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: get for Showdown. So if you prefer the Showdown slates
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: as opposed to like the big main slates playing against
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: like twenty thousand entries, then maybe going to that Drive
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: the Green makes a lot of sense. But mostly it's
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: single entries at this point, right, if this is the
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: boat on a lot of the other contests, like the drivers,
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: makes sense. This one's a little bit top heavy there.
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: It is a fifth to first place as well, But
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: when you start to get into some of the smaller drivers,
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: this is also a fifth to first So kind of
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: sucks that they're not doing the flatter payout structure single
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: entries with some of the bigger ones. This one's a
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: sixth the first. Actually, yeah, don't don't enter that contest.
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: We're not gonna talk about why that's that was weird
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: that DraftKings did that in that contest, but yeah, this
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: single entures are typically the contests that you want to
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: enter because they have flatter payout structures. I'm trying to
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: find like this is the dog leg. This actually just
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: filled as we were on live stream there. But that
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: contest is a lot flatter than what you have with
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: like a fifth or sixth to first place. So I see,
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: is the twelve dollars albatross still there? So yes, they
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: still have this albatross. This one's a great example of
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: a flat payout structure where rather than a fifth or
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: sixth to first place, you're getting a tenth the first place,
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: which gives a lot of extra money for the rest
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: of the top five, top ten for you to be
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: able to get at least ten, twenty, even thirty x
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: your entry fee for getting one of those top level finishes,
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: which the fifth to sixth the first place ones like
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: they're not the worst. But let's say that this was
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: like five or six k to first instead. I mean,
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: look at the drastic impact that's going to have on
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: the rest of this because that's probably taken away five
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars from second, two hundred and fifty, there one
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: hundred or two hundred dollars from all these other spots,
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: which doesn't seem like a massive difference, Like it's not
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: going to have a massive difference for one specific slate,
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: but long term, it's gonna mean that you're gonna have
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: to being first place a lot more often to have
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: those kind of long term results you're looking for. So
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: that's why I look for these sort of contests instead,
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: where if you are fit still finishing in the top
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: five top ten, you're still getting ten to twenty x
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: your entry fee, which is going to be massive for
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: sustaining your bankroll. So not just those, you can go
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: to the twenty maxes as well. A lot of those
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: have flatter payout structures than those large fold GPPs. And
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: what I normally look for is like a seventh to
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: first or less, like it's a seventh to first and
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: eighth the first, a tenth the first is really what
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: you're mostly looking for in contests, those are the best
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: ones to go out there in mac Center. And then
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: when putting together lineups, I mean, we've already gone through
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: a lot of stuff on what you should be thinking
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: about when building lineups, but it's all about your differentiation,
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: all about making sure that you have enough leverage in
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: your lineups. So it's okay if you have a piece
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: of chalk or two up top. So like, for example,
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: if you start with the lowry Sam Burns, those are
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: two of my core plays, I'm gonna have plenty of
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: lineups that start with those two together. Just make sure
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: with your last four spots that you're getting that differentiation.
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: So for example, in this AK range, if you're in
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: the large hell GPP, there's not a whole lot of
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: chalk there, so you can kind of play whoever the
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: heck you want to in this ak range, so they're
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: just throwing in Olson just because the shots gained metrics,
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: especially with the ball striking. We're pretty favorable on him before,
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: so we're getting him at sub ten percent. And then
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: as long as your last few players here aren't mega chalk,
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: mega chalk, mega chalk, you're gonna be totally fine. So
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: for example, you might want to avoid going to like
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: a Ryan Fox and then another chalky guy like, uh,
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: let's see who is real popular. I guess like seventy
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: three hundred. And then if your last man in was
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: another chalky guy, like let's say even Grillo is getting
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: some ownership like a grillow a Villups at seventy one
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars, that kind of lab in the large fel
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: GPP might be a little bit borderline on whether you'd
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: get away with it. So that's why if you're gonna
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: start with chocolate a lowry of burns up top, rather
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: than getting to your foxes the world down here that
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: are a little bit higher around in the seven K range,
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: that's why you'll see me making slightly slightly more differentiated
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: plays like for example, Ja Knapp, who's a little bit
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: lower owns rather than going to the Cam Young, who,
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: by the way, I love this week, but he's like
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent owns. Maybe rather than taking a super chalky
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: Cam Young, I go down and I play a Benny
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: Ann instead. Right, you can start to see me making
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: some of these ownership pivots in the seven K range
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: to offset that chalk that I've taken towards the top.
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: And maybe you still want to play let's say a
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: piece of chalk towards the top end of the seven
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: K range. So for example, I mean there's not a
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: bunch of chalk, are I guess let's go with Ryan Fox,
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: just like you're looking at before. Maybe up top that's
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: where you go. You know what, I'm going to try
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: and make a stand up top rather than going to
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: a sand Burns. You know, I'm gonna drop down to
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: a Looke Clainton whose a little bit lower on. Like
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: you get the idea, right, going from somebody that's a
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: little bit higher onto a little bit lower owned that
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: might be able to offset some of the ownership with
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: Ryan Fox. And while you're last man in, you're still
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: gonna have to have somebody that gets you different to
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: the field to offset that chalk. It does give you
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: a little bit more ability to take some chalk in
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: that seven k range. So when you're building lineups right,
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: it's always about giving and taking with the ownership, making
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: sure that you have enough differentiation in there, but also
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: making sure that you're still building lineups that have a chance, right,
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: that aren't just pivots across the board. Because pivots are
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: a pivot for a reason, right, there's a reason why
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: they're gonna be lower owned than some of their peers.
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: It's oftentimes because they're not as good of play. So
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: that's it for the line of construction segment. That's it
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: for the live stream in general. Guys, I've got to
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: get out of here to be able to do my
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: prop stream on my channel, which, by the way, if
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: you're looking for the underdog and price pick stuff around one,
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: also any matchups on the sportsbooks like DraftKings and fandle
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: make sure you're tuned into live stream right now on
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: my YouTube. That'll be any minute now over there. I'll
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: be going live in just a couple minutes after I
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: freshen up here for a second going through all that
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: so that i'll be stat averages for round one. Also,
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: whether and how that'll impact play tomorrow. Specifically, I'll go
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: through some pin locations and just completely deep dive the
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: betting side for tomorrow's action. So here we obviously went
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: through all the fantasy stuff. We're getting you guys ready
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: for all those DraftKings lineups. I hope to see a
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: lot of your names towards the top end of those GPPs.
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: It'd be nice to take something down, get the bank
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: roll going, you know, flushed and full of the pockets
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: before we head to Oakmont because that event, that major,
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be one that I'm playing pretty heavily on
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: with the exposure, so it'd be nice to have even
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: more to play with for that sort of event. But
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: that's all I've got, guys. Best luck. As I was
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: mentioning before, I'll see if there's any last second questions
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: I can go through real quickly here, and then we're
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: gonna get over to the prop side. Let's see. Don't
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: sleep on NAP. I see what you did there. Guy
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: in the back has taken the NAP. I love what
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: you guys are doing there. And by the way, shout
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: out to Djen. It's going on, Chris, he said Hubbard.
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: Hubbard I've seen his name thrown around a little bit.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: I'm going to six out of ten on him, Chris,
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: I kind get it, but I'm not there completely like
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of other people are heard guy saying scam
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: Young one wasn't open qualifier. Yeah he did. He won
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: a playoff, actually, Brian, so he wasn't in first place
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: of the qualifier. He was in like fourth or fifth
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: and had to earn his way in. I liked him
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: before that happened. A lot of people seem to like
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: him after that. Chalk Cam Young is terrifying. I agree
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: with that. By the way I played, I was playing
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: him at least I pointed him out as a play
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: when I thought it was gonna be like five percent
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: out before he went out and won that qualifier. Thoughts
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: on o baron Bobby Mack poor form, yeah, poor form,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: but good course fits Brian. So if you want to
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: bounce back, really good players that have won before on
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: tour are always okay in my book for a bounce back,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: like I'll take a play on that long term talent
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: level all day. He said, appreciate you, Luke, great job
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: as usual. I appreciate you, Adam, best of luck. This
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: week and are you missing something on howe you see
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: him as lower owned to feel like his driver alone
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: is worth more ownership. I agree with you, man, And
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: if you check out the course breakdown I did like
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: on Monday, I'll save you the full watch because it's
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: like fifteen minutes. But I looked at some very specific
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: categories for this golf course and it wasn't just the
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: off the tee play. Like he was a good dent
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: poe putter. He was good from one fifty to two hundred.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: He was good at bogie avoidance, which no one would
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: really think that with Riko Joe right, that is a
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: good bogie avoidance player, but he is I don't know.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: I think he's a good sleeper play man. And then
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: Dumpy bow won through ten five out of ten. I
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: don't have a hot take on him either way. To
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: be frank, the off the tee play is kind of sketchy,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: but I think he might be able to get away
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: with it around here. Yeah, five out of ten. Believe it? There?
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: All right, guys, that's all got. I appreciate all your
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: support and the channel as you guys always show and
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: see guys for the round T through four live streams,