Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 500 - 4/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 500 - 4/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to episode 500.
• 0:17
  That's right, 500500. Of the all systems.
• 0:21
  Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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  I'm your host, Josh. Applebaum What's going on,
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  everyone? Happy Monday, a new week begins.
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  And we're going to try to finish up the month of April on a hot
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  note. Going to get right back to Major
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  League Baseball guys. I know it's a.
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  Smaller than usual slate. There's only eight games.
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  Overall, but I found two games that really kind of, you know,
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  kind of jumped out to me. Both of which have two good
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  rhythm. Green Star recommendations as
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  well as some. Good bet splits.
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  Some good sharp mush edges. So we'll see if we can at least
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  go one and one try to go 2. And wouldn't that be a nice
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  start to the week? And that's gonna be it.
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  It's gonna be MLB. Bit of a short.
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  Day here. Today I was looking at.
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  Some of the NBA totals because. Some of these.
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  Totals were interesting to. Me and I've been kind of
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  monitoring from afar and I told you guys, you know, a while back
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  that hey, you know, I'm going to pick my spots with NBA and NHL
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  playoffs, but I am looking toward game sevens and we don't.
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  Have any? Game sevens yet?
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  But when game sevens come, hey, we got.
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  Opportunities here when you. Look at.
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  Both of these angles and again, no, no.
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  Series are at. That point.
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  Yet. So maybe we'll have some.
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  Later in the week. But Game 7?
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  Unders in the NBA are 41 and 20. 6.
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  That is a 61% win rate 18. Percent ROI and that goes.
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  All the way back to I think that.
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  Is 2005. So you know, basically you're
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  almost winning, you know, 2/3 of these.
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  Games whole thought process. Is game seven.
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  You know it's. Do or die, you're going to
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  really lock down on defense. You got tired legs.
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  You're not. Going to take too many chances.
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  Same sort of thing in the NHL. Since 2006 in the NHL, game
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  sevens are 45 and 2961% with an 11% ROI.
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  So we have seen these these. Unders in game sevens do very
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  well, but I was also looking at. Some NBA unders This was
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  interesting. Because I'm kicking myself for
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  not having. Maybe seen this earlier, but we
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  do have unders in the NBA postseason this year 22 and 14.
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  61% with a 17% ROI. Now the problem.
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  If you look at all these games for today, Pistons, Magic, I
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  was. Looking at that, under that
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  total. Actually went up to 14 after
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  215. And half Thunder and Suns over
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  2. 13 1/2 up to 214 and a half 215 and T Wolves Nuggets 223 up
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  to 223 and a half 224 two. 24 1/2 so I'm trying to align the.
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  Market with again maybe heavy betting over.
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  Yet line move under and we have a historical.
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  Trend there to the under doing all this postseason.
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  Well, you're not really having that the markets.
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  Going up with these totals but the.
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  Historical plays are under and to make matters worse, like I
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  could say to myself. Hey I I can still.
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  Bet a couple unders as long as we have some green star rhythm
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  recommendations. On these.
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  Unders and I look at all three of these games for tonight and
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  rhythm is actually saying. Take the over on all.
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  Three of these games. So really nothing that.
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  You know, kind of lined up. Perfectly and again when I think
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  it this way too guys like we. Got our finger.
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  On the pulse of. MLB Rob on a pretty good run
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  here at Major League Baseball. You don't want to.
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  Force a bet in another sport. Just because it's a, it's a
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  quiet day in MLB like again. There's only eight games.
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  There's not. 15 we could easily. Pick out slate of. 15 games or
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  more, easily three or more bets. Could catch our eye.
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  Only two caught my eye in in an MLB so I would I would hate to.
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  You know, ideally, knock on wood, we get both of them go 2
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  and O. And yet we haven't really had
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  our finger. On the pulse of.
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  NBA We haven't been dialed into the.
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  Intricacies of every game and how the series.
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  Is playing out. And we forced an NBA play and
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  lose, and then we go from A2 and O to A2.
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  And one or a one and one to a one and two.
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  So that's my thought process here, but I just wanted to
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  mention that because I've had a couple.
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  People DM me and. Say hey, where?
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  Your NBA plays. Again, Game sevens we'll keep an
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  eye on. Those definitely could be
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  hopefully worth our while. Well, that being said.
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  As we kick off a new week, let's even get a couple winners in
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  Major League Baseball. So without further ado, 2 pack
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  for you. Again, I was.
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  Looking at 1:00. More bet?
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  Possibly, but. There were some red flags and
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  these other numbers. Nothing else jumped out.
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  So again, don't force it if it ain't there.
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  So first, we're on the board. Let's go to a 6:40 PM Eastern.
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  Time first pitch. Saint Louis.
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  Cardinals visiting the. Pittsburgh Pirates, Let's talk.
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  Line moves, bet split system matches.
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  And I'll give you my play for this one.
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  So going into it, the cards are. 14 and 13 on the year.
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  They just got. Swept by the Mariners.
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  They lost 3 to 2 yesterday. AS plus 110 home dogs.
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  You know the pirates. 16 and. 12 on the year I took their over 78
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  and half win total, so knock on wood.
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  Off to a decent. Start with that one.
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  Just took two or. Three against the Brewers.
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  Couldn't get the sweep. Though they.
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  Lost 5 nothing yesterday as a + 100 Rd. dog now.
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  For the series opener here tonight.
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  Cardinal Cardinals are going. With the ready Dustin May, he's
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  three and two with a 5.84 ERA. Meanwhile, the Pirates are going
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  to go. With the lefty Mason.
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  Montgomery one and O 3.97 ERA they picked him up in that trade
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  the Brandon low trade Brandon Lau with the.
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  Tampa Bay Rays. Now, what have we seen across
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  the market? Will this game open with?
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  Pittsburgh with surrounding -120 - 125 home favorite.
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  Saint Louis around a. Plus 100. +105 Rd.
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  Dog and. Early in the day.
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  We saw this line. Clearly get steamed up.
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  Toward Pittsburgh. Because Pittsburgh.
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  Went from -120 -, 125 all the way up to -135 now.
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  Since that time, the line has come back down a bit.
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  You're back down to around pirates -120 -, 125.
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  So we're kind of right back to where we started.
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  But I'm going to stick with the Pirates now.
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  At the time, the Pirates are -130 and I had a Fanatics boost.
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  And again, highly recommend this guys.
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  When you log into your book, whatever book it may be, I
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  mentioned this. Before, but I really want to
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  hammer this because it can really.
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  Benefit you? Go to the top of the page.
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  Click Promos. Maybe there's some different
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  icons based on the? Sports book but see what they're
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  offering you because I had a big.
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  Boost on fanatics that let me get the pirates down from -130
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  down to -1 O one. So basically a.
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  You know, you know, just a standard, almost even flat bet
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  there. Plus 100 now.
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  Couple things I still like about Pittsburgh.
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  Even though again, it shot up to Pitt, it's come back down a bit.
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  Right back to where it started, but you're still getting a
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  really good bet Split at circa. 87% money line bets 96% money
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  line dollars on Pittsburgh. So it tells us a lot of big
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  heavy one way low bets, higher dollars money out in the desert
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  is going with the Pirates and. Then here are the intangibles
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  they like about Pittsburgh. One slightly.
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  Better bats. Nothing huge, but they're
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  hitting 241 on the year. 135 runs scored St.
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  Louis hitting 2:30. 525 runs scored, but a couple other
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  angles Pirates at. Home.
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  They're hitting two. 75 at home. That's the second.
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  Best Home. Batting average in baseball, so
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  they like to play at home. Meanwhile, the Cards hitting 223
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  on the road that ranks 24th. So the home Rd. batting average
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  definitely is a benefit toward Pittsburgh here.
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  Here's the other angle I really like.
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  You may not love the fact that it's.
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  Again, it's a give and a take because if you like the pirates.
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  You can get them now -120 -, 125.
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  So you like the number. But yeah, almost would rather
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  have want this line to get to like -140 now you always have
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  that battle back and forth of hey, I want the better number.
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  But also if I want to, if I want the line move going in my in my
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  direction late, even if I'm paying $0.10 more, that tells
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  me. That smart money continued to
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  hit that team. So again, it's a it's a give and
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  a take. But anyway, this might give you
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  some more. Confidence.
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  Did you guys know this little baseball jeopardy?
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  Pittsburgh Pirates. After a loss this year off a
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  loss, they're 10 and 191 percent, 71%.
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  ROI that makes them the second best bounce back team in
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  baseball. Did you know the?
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  Guardians are the number one. Bounce back team in.
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  Baseball Now I also want to bet against Dustin May.
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  Dustin May has an 8.31 ERA on the road.
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  This year versus. 4.5 O at home. So he's, you know, decent at
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  home. But really bad on the road.
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  He's on the road tonight. Let's flip it to.
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  Montgomery the lefty. He has a one. .93 ERA at home
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  versus 5.4 O on the road. So May's bad on the road.
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  Montgomery's good at. Home.
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  Where are they at tonight? All maze on the road.
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  Montgomery's at home. Next bullpen edge if this.
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  Is a tight. Game we've got to sweat.
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  It feels like every game you got to sweat.
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  It's never easy. But we do have Pittsburgh with a
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  better. Team ERA out of the bullpen.
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  Team ERA of. 3.17 That's actually the 5th.
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  Best in Baseball St. Louis has a 5.25 bullpen ERA.
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  That's the sixth worst. In baseball.
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  And lastly, when the pirates are.
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  A chalk. Favorite, so when they're
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  favored and again they're on -120 -, 125 tonight got as high
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  as -135 they are 10 and 471 percent, 25% ROI.
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  That is the second best chalk team in baseball.
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  Lastly, I did have a good let's see two rhythm.
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  That's what I. Was looking for.
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  Two rhythm recommendations. Both on Pittsburgh lighting up
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  green stars telling me the AI model.
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  Also likes Pittsburgh here for tonight.
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  They're also it's not. A non division favorite because.
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  Both teams are in. The NL Central, but.
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  This total is hovered. Around 8/8 and 1/2.
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  So some books are 8, some are 8 1/2.
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  But if it's at 8, that technically would be.
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  A dog low total. Correlative betting, so fair
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  amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from quote
• 9:37
  UN quote that better team. So again, the signs come back.
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  Down a bit, but. I'm going to stick.
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  With my original bet here. Dance with one.
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  Who brung me? I really like Pittsburgh all
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  throughout the morning and early afternoon again came back down a
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  bit. But I'm sticking with the buckos
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  here who are great. Knock on wood, off a loss and as
• 9:52
  a chalk favorite. So let's back Montgomery over.
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  May I got Pirates again? Boosted at Fanatics. -1 O one.
• 10:00
  But you can. Get them around -120 here at
• 10:02
  Fanatics. Next bet?
• 10:04
  Only two games tonight, so early game, late game.
• 10:07
  Let's look at the cubbies. Visiting the San Diego Padres
• 10:09
  this. Is a 940.
• 10:10
  PM Eastern Time, first pitch. Who knows, maybe a.
• 10:13
  Playoff preview now the. Cubs come in 17 and. 11 on the
• 10:16
  year, just dropped two or three against the Dodgers.
• 10:19
  Lost 6 to nothing yesterday as plus one O 5 row dogs.
• 10:22
  Meanwhile the pods 18 and 9 on the year.
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  One of the best records in baseball.
• 10:26
  They just split A2 game series in Mexico.
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  Against the Diamondbacks, they lost 12 to 7 yesterday as a -,
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  135 neutral. Site favorite.
• 10:34
  And actually had a. Buddy of mine DM me and say.
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  What's going on with that total? San Diego and Arizona, it's 14
• 10:40
  1/2. Well, it's because the game was
• 10:42
  in Mexico. Tiny little stadium there with
• 10:44
  good wind blowing out so. That's why it was.
• 10:46
  A high total 14 half and. When you know it went over, they
• 10:50
  scored 19. Anyway, what are we seeing
• 10:52
  across the board? Well, first let's start.
• 10:54
  Talking. About the pitching matchup, we
• 10:56
  have the Cubs going with the lefty Matthew Boyd.
• 10:58
  He's one and one. With a 5.79 ERA pods meanwhile
• 11:02
  going. With the ready Randy Vasquez, he
• 11:04
  is 2 and O with a 1.88 ERA. What have we seen across the
• 11:08
  market? Let's game open cubbies.
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  Listed as a very. Short -115.
• 11:13
  Road favorite pods. Around a -, 1 O 5 home dog and
• 11:17
  again. Right off the bat.
• 11:18
  Let's think about this Padres of the.
• 11:20
  One of the best. Records in baseball, they're a
• 11:22
  short dog at home. Or you know, is it?
• 11:25
  Fishy. You should take Chicago, they're
• 11:27
  having a good year. Too well, looks like.
• 11:29
  Wise guys have clearly. Gotten down on the fathers
• 11:32
  because we've seen. Even though the Cubs are
• 11:35
  technically the popular. Plate tonight, the Cubs are
• 11:37
  actually. Getting 56%.
• 11:39
  Of money line bets at DraftKings.
• 11:40
  The line hasn't gone to Cubs -120.
• 11:43
  It's completely flipped to San Diego. -1. 15 -, 120 So what are
• 11:48
  we? Talking about talking about a
• 11:50
  dog to fave line move and not only a dog to fave line move,
• 11:53
  but a. Dog to favor.
• 11:54
  Reverse line move because if look at.
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  The splits here san. Diego only getting. 44% of money
• 12:00
  line bets. At DK, yet they flipped from.
• 12:02
  A dog to a favorite, so it tells us a lot of.
• 12:03
  Respected money here has. Come in on the Padres at home
• 12:07
  now. If we look at circa in
• 12:10
  particular. Only 47.
• 12:12
  Percent of money line. Bets but 57.
• 12:14
  Percent of money line dollars are in.
• 12:16
  Favor of San Diego. San Diego.
• 12:18
  Also would match that correlative betting system value
• 12:21
  total of 7 1/2 so. Favorite low Total.
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  Clearly, San Diego is now the favorite of the fewer amount.
• 12:26
  Of expected run scored. More likely to come from quote
• 12:29
  UN quote that better team. And then also a non division
• 12:32
  favorite. So lack of familiarity
• 12:34
  benefiting again quote UN quote that better team.
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  Padres, by the way. Five and O in.
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  Vasquez's five starts. This year, knock on wood.
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  Meanwhile, Boyd. Has a six. .75 ERA on the road
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  so you struggle on the road. And again, San Diego's been.
• 12:49
  Really good with Vasquez on the bump.
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  Lastly, San Diego 11. And four.
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  That is a 73% win rate. 22% ROI. As a favorite this year, that's
• 12:58
  the third best. Chalk team in.
• 12:59
  Baseball so. Pirates as chalk second best and
• 13:02
  the pods as chalk the third best.
• 13:05
  Lastly, notice a 25%. Sharp mush edge at juice.
• 13:09
  Reel in favor of the San Diego Padres.
• 13:11
  So AI model or actually? The you know.
• 13:13
  Sharp winning betters who have downloaded Juice Reel Sync,
• 13:16
  synced up their books, also going with San Diego.
• 13:18
  And then a little cherry on top. 2.
• 13:21
  Rhythm Green star recommendations also on San
• 13:24
  Diego, so I must admit guys, you know my wife's from.
• 13:27
  Might have heard me say this before, she's from San.
• 13:29
  Diego and now that I have my daughter who is about to turn 5
• 13:32
  weeks. Old, which is crazy.
• 13:34
  We get another late night Padres game together.
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  When mom's sleeping. Dad.
• 13:38
  And the and the and the baby, they're going to be in the
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  baby's room. Sweating the Padres on the on
• 13:43
  the on the iPad. So very much looking forward to
• 13:45
  that. So pirates and Padres.
• 13:47
  I got Padres -114 at Bally bet but shop around.
• 13:51
  A lot of books closer to -1. 15 - 120 Let's go, bucko.
• 13:55
  'S. And let's go Dad's.
• 13:57
  So that about does it. Short and sweet on a Monday.
• 13:59
  Sleepy. Little Monday after.
• 14:01
  A big weekend here. But as always guys, when we wrap
• 14:04
  things up, we first always say. Thank you.
• 14:06
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 14:09
  grinding in the arena with me every day.
• 14:11
  Through the UPS and the downs, the good and the.
• 14:12
  Bad. The great wins, the hard losses.
• 14:15
  We wake up every day with a. Positive attitude, A fearless.
• 14:18
  Discipline, attitude, knowing that hey, the sports betting
• 14:21
  thing, it ain't easy, but we embrace the.
• 14:23
  Challenge trying to make sharp bets with our head and not our
• 14:25
  heart. So if you do enjoy this pod,
• 14:27
  hopefully you value the insights.
• 14:29
  And enjoy the breakdowns. Please could you help?
• 14:31
  Me grow this podcast give it a 5 star.
• 14:33
  Review on Spotify or iTunes. Recommend the pod to a friend.
• 14:37
  Retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter.
• 14:39
  Any or all those things would be very much appreciated next if
• 14:43
  you enjoy. This style of sports.
• 14:45
  Betting data. Driven sharp contrarian betting
• 14:47
  focusing on line. Movement bet split system
• 14:49
  matches taking a contrarian. Approach leaning on AI models
• 14:53
  betting games again based on the.
• 14:55
  Data the numbers. And not the not the bias.
• 14:58
  Not what the team team say. But what the numbers?
• 15:00
  How the numbers are? Are speaking in terms of the
• 15:03
  teams. But if any.
• 15:04
  Of that is the case and you want to learn more.
• 15:06
  About data-driven betting. Or you know that Mother's Day or
• 15:08
  Father's Day is. Is not far off here guys.
• 15:10
  Or. Maybe if.
• 15:11
  Someone in your life who could use some data-driven.
• 15:13
  Tips whether they're brand new to betting and don't know the.
• 15:16
  Difference between a, a. Spread and a money line.
• 15:18
  Or maybe they they. Bet quite a bit.
• 15:20
  Lose a lot and you ask them, hey, why'd you take this team
• 15:22
  tonight and say, oh, because, because they're hot.
• 15:24
  OK, well, what did the line open at?
• 15:25
  How to move, yadda yadda, you know, again, all that kind of
• 15:28
  stuff. If any of that is the case, Or
• 15:30
  maybe you just want to. Let me know you appreciate the
• 15:32
  insights and make my day. Please go to.
• 15:34
  Amazon.com. And type in the.
• 15:36
  NFL sharp betting playbook or type in.
• 15:39
  The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 15:41
  Those are the two books that I've written.
• 15:43
  Very proud of both, but if you want to grab one copy or both of
• 15:46
  them. And bring them to the sports
• 15:48
  book. I'll sign them for you.
• 15:49
  I'll buy you a beer. Or or a ginger ale and we'll.
• 15:52
  Sweat some games together. Some MLB here.
• 15:54
  For tonight next, have you downloaded?
• 15:57
  Rhythm and Juice reel yet my two favorite sports betting.
• 15:59
  Apps, they help me win. They're going to help you win
• 16:01
  because they're all about the data.
• 16:03
  Hoping to give us an edge here based on the.
• 16:06
  AI back models that are provided by Rhythm for both game bets and
• 16:09
  player props. And then of course.
• 16:10
  Juice Reel Juice Reel has so many great features.
• 16:13
  You can sync up your sports books, get a running.
• 16:14
  Report card of your action also give you that.
• 16:16
  CLV indicator you place. A bet.
• 16:19
  At, you know, FanDuel. DraftKings.
• 16:20
  Whatever, Book it. Goes right to Drews.
• 16:22
  Real. And then it'll track that bet
• 16:24
  and again. If you bet A-Team -1. 20 at 9:00
• 16:27
  AM And now they're -125 you'll get a nice little green, you
• 16:30
  know, 1. Percent CLV indicator so you can
• 16:33
  kind. Of track your action.
• 16:34
  Even before. The game starts.
• 16:36
  But you're also going to get the robo.
• 16:37
  Jackson best bet picks. Sharp mush indicators Arbitrage.
• 16:40
  Plays shop for the best sign futures as well as.
• 16:45
  You can get the all systems go best bet picks exclusively.
• 16:48
  On juice rail. Because as soon as I make a bet
• 16:50
  it. Goes right to juice.
• 16:51
  Rail you can tail. Fade.
• 16:52
  Do what? You like?
• 16:53
  But I consider it a tip. Jar This pod is free.
• 16:55
  The insights are free. So if you enjoy the pod.
• 16:58
  If even if you just want to do it for a week or.
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  Be a hero and just. Let it keep running.
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  The plays and. Hopefully get the numbers early.
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  And beat some closing. Lines but download rhythm
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  download juice real give them both.
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  Next, do you have a live odds page?
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  Well, if you don't have one, you need one.
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  It's. Such a critical tool because you
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  got to be able. To track the market in real
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  time, you got to know all the games available to bet that day,
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  all the sports that are in action, the start times, the
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  live scoring when the game gets going, live in game wagering
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  odds that you know light up. And and change throughout the
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  game. As you're watching it update
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  based on the score and how the game is playing out.
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  But it also is great for all the work you do prior to.
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  The game being played, which would be.
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  Tracking line movement opening column never changes.
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  Gives you the opening number. To the right all the current
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  prices. So you can see which.
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  Direction the line is moving and pull up the line.
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  History. You get the.
• 17:59
  Sharp indicators. Which are a new feature which
• 18:01
  are really. Great as well as.
• 18:04
  Of course, shopping for the best line, finding the book.
• 18:07
  Offering the best price, which is which is very, very
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  important. You can do it all with odds
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  logic. So if you ever want to give Odds
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  logic a shot. Now is the time.
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  Slash Josh, 12. Three, that's going to give you
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  a 7 day free trial and. 50% off your.
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  First month of service. So that about does it for
• 18:26
  episode 500. Can you believe it?
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  500. 5 hundo 500, it kind of makes you take a step back and
• 18:33
  say, wow, we've been doing this for quite a bit now, 500
• 18:36
  episodes. I'm very proud of that.
• 18:38
  And thank you all. Whether this is your first or
• 18:39
  500th or somewhere in between. Thank you for listening, really
• 18:42
  means a lot to me. But as always, guys, two final
• 18:45
  thoughts. One whether I see.
• 18:46
  You at the Borgata in Atlantic City Twin.
• 18:48
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 18:50
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
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  Boston Plain Ridge Park. Casino MGM Springfield.
• 18:56
  Or the Nash. In my neck of the woods, on the
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  border of. Massachusetts in Nashua, NH out
• 19:01
  in the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
• 19:03
  Walters sends his number runners.
• 19:05
  Where the lowest use. Possible is found at the South
• 19:07
  Point or Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the
• 19:10
  stadium swim pool when you cash a big ticket at Circa.
• 19:13
  Wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 19:15
  Hopefully show me a Buckles ticket a Padres.
• 19:18
  Ticket wouldn't. That be a nice.
• 19:19
  Start to the week. So as always guys.
• 19:22
  Coming off a winning weekend, a losing weekend, a hot.
• 19:24
  Streak a cold streak. Whether you're sharp as a tack.
• 19:28
  And can't miss or. Cold as ice and nothing's going
• 19:29
  your way. Just got to stick with it.
• 19:31
  And keep grinding. That's the name.
• 19:32
  Of the game, remember? Odds make your set.
• 19:35
  Really hard lines that are tough to beat.
• 19:37
  We got to overcome the juice. You can be a winning better in.
• 19:39
  Terms of win losses, but you know, again.
• 19:42
  Be a loser because of the juice. Never forget that sports betting
• 19:45
  is hard. And then we don't even mention,
• 19:47
  you know, teams blowing it for you or.
• 19:48
  Weird things happening or the ref screwing you.
• 19:50
  That's all part of it as well we never get.
• 19:52
  Too high or too. Low we stick to the model, stick
• 19:54
  to the. Blueprint and again we.
• 19:56
  Play the system matches, bypass the.
• 19:58
  Games with red flags. Get down on the.
• 20:00
  Games that fit our model and our model.
• 20:01
  Goes something like this. Games that are against the
• 20:04
  public. With the house.
• 20:05
  With the pros flat bet, avoid parlays.
• 20:07
  And get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 20:10
  to be successful sports bettors so everyone has a.
• 20:12
  Great Monday night. We'll be right back at it
• 20:14
  tomorrow for episode 501 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 20:19
  podcast, powered by. Rhythm.
• 20:21
  Good luck everybody and have a great Monday night.