Latest / Earn Your Leisure / Warren Buffett's Apple Exit

Transcript

Warren Buffett's Apple Exit · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: and sure they definitely can be, but understanding a professionals
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: It might seem boring to safe plan and make calculated
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Boring since eighteen sixty five is a service mark of
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: National Association Member FDIC.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Erness What's Up?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: You ever walk into a small business and everything just
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: works like the checkout is fast, the receipts are digital,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the line even builds. Odds are they're using Square? We
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: love supporting business that run on Square because it just
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: feels seamless. Whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: at a pop up market, or even one of.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Our merch partners.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Square makes it easy for them to take payments, manage inventory,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: and run their business with confidence, all from one simple system.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: If you're a business owner or even just thinking about
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: launching something soon, Square is hands down one of the
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: best tools out there to help you start, run and grow.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: It's not just about payments, it's about giving you time
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: back so you can focus on.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: What matters most ready.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: To see how Square can transform your business, visit Square
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: dot com backslash go backslash eyl to learn more that
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Square dot com backslash, go backslash eyl. Don't wait, don't hesitate.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Let's Square handle the back end so you can keep
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: pushing your vision forward.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: Born Buffett made news a few days ago when he
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: sold a lot of his apples. And Apple is a
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: company that has been struggling. Well, I mean it's docking relative,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: but you know, I've had some issues this year with
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: lawsuits in Europe and America and.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: Re rocking the same phone for seventeen years.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: So now that warrant has kind of started to abandon
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: the ship. Does this mean that two Tech two Index
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: needs to kick Apple out?
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: Oh no, not yet.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: But what I will say, number one, you have to
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: factor in the price of which he got into Apple.
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: So if you know that, please put in chat my
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: favorite investor of the year. So the return has been incredible,
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: maybe time to assw it. With the death of Charlie,
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: there was Charlie's idea at Warrens, so that's another reason
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: he kind of got that off the table. Now him
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: selling half of the position.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: Do I agree with it? One thousand percent? And here's
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: why this is called fundamental analysis.
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: The weakness is an Apple is they even though they've
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: spent the most on AI startups, they have not had
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: much innovation in the last five years. To everybody at HQ,
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: I love you still shot to Tim Cook, Lauren Jobs,
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: Steve Jobs. Cool, but can you tell me five things
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: that you've seen out of Apple the last five years
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: that you absolutely love?
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: Five deb And if it takes that long.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: To give five reasons while something is great, it ain't there.
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: Do I think innovation will come in the next two
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: or three years. But I've been saying they need to
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: go back and get Johnny Ives and bring it back
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: into the consultant fold. You need another product. The AirPods
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: have done well great. It was an acquisition from doctor
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: Dre and Jimmy Ivean. You missed out on open Ai,
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: you missed out on the crypto wallet. The car thing
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: was a fucking fiasco. Shot to Loupe, you need another sector,
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: and now you're taking too long to move into healthcare,
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: and the regulations may be tighter than four or five
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: years to do so, depending on who is in office.
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: So if I was Buffet and I had one hundred
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: and twenty something millions in an Apple, and I don't
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: see any prospects of it going up higher, nothing wrong
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: with taking profit how of a trade, though they should
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: have been in the five years earlier. But this is
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: really Charlie's brain child.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: So when you say when you say you don't see
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: any prospects of it going higher, and that would mean
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: that it has limited upside.
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: Right, it doesn't have the same growth rate that it
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: does over the last maybe six years. But also profit
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: margins still twenty five percent and still one of the
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: top three marketing cap companies of all time.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say that the profit margins are
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: still high.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: It's interesting the timing of it.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I think a month ago we were talking about him
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: shaving thirteen percent, which was a large chunk, and then
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: we hear that he shaved up half in this quarter.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming he did it around when Apple hit this
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: fifty two week two thirty four, which.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense. Yes, But when the news
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: came out early.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Saturday morning, I text, and I text that in the chat,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: and the next thing I said is he knows something.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: He knows, yes, and he's convinced the whole world. He
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: doesn't know how to trade. If you look at the
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: exits when he holds on the ship for five to
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: ten years, it's usually like four or five dollars from
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: the all time high.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we need to get him in Nancy Pelosi in
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: a chat and see what we can do. But yeah,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I mean half is a lot, But what does that
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: mean in terms of cash? That means two hundred and
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: twenty seven billion.
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: Most of all time and a bunch of Treasury.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Bills just sitting on the sideline.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: And so if you see a market pullback like we've
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: seen obviously today, and if that continues over the rest
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: of this quarter, there's gonna be plenty of opportunities for
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: him to buy into new positions.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: In fact, he might go back and buy some more
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Apple positions. We don't know. He's still a large shareholder
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: of the company. Well first sure Halfway is a large
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: shareholder of the company.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: And so the timing of it, it seems like when
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: he makes these moves, you see the trickle effect.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: It was no coincidence. When he went to.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Taiwan to talk, we saw the trickle effect happen. But
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: what Taiwan semiconducted, I don't know. You said abandoned, which
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: is a strong word.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: I don't. I don't.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know if where if he abandons it like
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: you said that, there's still yeah.
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: No, here's slowly trim and he's Trim's.
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: If I was him, I will push Intel down to
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: seven and buy the whole fucking company.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Just buy it, all right.
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: I can't get Taiwan. They ran up in video. He's
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: a tech blaggered, but entries are innovative. I will find
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: a way to push that ship and what better face
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: in a global route to pick up into other more.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Buffet or we should just watch where his focus have
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: been over the past six months.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: What industry is, What sectors?
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: We spoke about a few of them, like where where
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: have the sectors that broke? I know we talk about
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: they talk about rotations all the time and it's like techotated.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, but where has his focus gone? Where has
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: the money move? Right?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Like we always let people follow the money again, it
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: leaves traces. Where has the money gone? Where has his
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: focus gone? We talked about oil plenty of times on here,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: but that would be interesting to watch over the next
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: few months.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: With that cash pile of two.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I mean two hundred and twenty seven billions, is just
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: where is that going?
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Like where the remnants of it?
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: Okay, I want to.
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: Be a record if it goes to nine bucks that
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: he's gonna put an offering for what Intel and the
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: company's ran to ship right now? Well, the government, hos
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: is gonna keep it the last ten years and you're
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: the laggard in the space.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, government contract's gonna keep it alive.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: So okay.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Bitcoin Bitcoin dipped under fifty thousand today, briefly came back rebounded,
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: but it's still down tremendously from his high of seventy
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: three thousand, twenty thousand dollars lower than that, but still
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: above the fifty two weeks low twenty fourth thou So,
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: what is what's the deal with bitcoin?
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: It's going down with everything else I kept telling you,
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: Larry Finking is the halfway of the bitcoin and crypto
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: market space. So it'll move when Blackrock wanted to move.
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: If you got it at forty nine thousands some change,
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: you did great. If you can get it back at
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: fifty two, buy and go to the beach, same thing
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: I did with jet Ski.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: If you believe in the assets long term, just hold
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: on to it.
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: But the truth is the entire economic system needs to
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: be readjusted. And I said it on a stock clup
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: call yesterday. If a quarter of one percent interest rate
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: change is what's going to be the band aid to
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: save the market, where before we even get started, if
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: a quarter basis point is the thing that's like keeping
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: everything glued together, we have to have a reset anyway.
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: So Bitcoin is just being drug down as a result,
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: like every like the Nike and that they're right in chat,
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: they're all tied together. There are no assets that matter
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: on Earth that hedge funds are not going to touch
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: and have their hands in. So bigcoin got so big
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: and trying to your point to XRP. At some point
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: I hope it takes off. But the fact that Larry
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: and Blackrock have not put their hands in to dominate
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: that while the guns of stuff is going on. It's
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: very telling they picked the ones that are going to
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: win ethereum same thing. So we're having a global pullback
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: because something is coming. And I think Warren happened two
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: hundred and seventy seven billion on cash. It's talent to
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: the public that he knows. He just can't announce what
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: is coming over the leak.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Something is coming. Is a recession coming.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: I've been saying this the last two year.
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: Yes, even was on Brukast Club, I predicted twenty four
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: to twenty five we would get into recession.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: So we're going so all right, So the recession is
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: coming this year, next year.
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: I think if Queen Kamama gets in, you can damn
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: it guarantee February we hit.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: We're recession.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: We're hit a recession.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: What about your idea of the soft landing, because it's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: felt up until his point, up until mid July, I
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: mean the nastac was at all time high, be all
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: time high, doubt, all time high. I think July temper
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: hit that mark. Valuations through the roof, multiples through the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: roof that has pulled back. Now is the theory of
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: soft landing. Are you still opposed to it?
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: We want truth to truth. Uh truth, soft landing was
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: some bullshit from the very beginner. That's another phrase for
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: market manipulation. So if you got in and you priced
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: it in great, okay. I asked both of you take
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: me out of the equation if you never met me.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: Off the top of your head, if your entire life
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: savings had to go into four companies, what four would
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: you pick?
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: After it takes that long, I got in trouble and
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: go ahead.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: I got. I mean it's for but it's probably obvious.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: For like Apple, Microsoft.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: I've taken video in Amazon.
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: Now rashad as an advisor.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: If I told you eight years ago nobody said bonds,
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: you would say I was a scam artist, right, A.
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: Fucking bond market collapse and the yen collapsed and no,
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: Everyone's like, no, it's fine.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: The junis riv Ai is going to bring the market
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: what okay? Okay, I knew what everybody thought. I was
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: crazy for one oh seven. I'm like, man, if I
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: tell you why this shit can really go and how
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: much of the rest of the market has support, it's scary.
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: I think a lot of black people are already in
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: recession anyway. A lot of men sized businesses are in
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: like recession anyway.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: But I want to ask, how would this really affect
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: because yeah, I mean the consumer sentiment is already recession,
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: so a recession. How how bad would it get if
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: technically people are already in recession?
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, if I think if they only show the
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: truth and tell how even with the jobs report, I'm like,
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's the real because if we take
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: the government jobs out of it, how many jobs are we.
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: Net positive.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Destiny?
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: I want to see. Now that's the part that's really tough.
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: Now, if you take out the jobs to pay twenty
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: five hours twenty five dollars per hour unless and government jobs,
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: like what is the net? If you look at Silicon Valley,
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: they've been on a freeze. We all know people that
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: meta like they weren't hiring, like how they were two
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: years ago and they were slashing fucking jobs like crazy
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: to you, like, this is real and I'm not trying
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: to be doom and gloom, but as an investor, you
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: have to be honest. Like California is in a complete
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: a state is in decline, got border issues, Chicago trouble.
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: Like even when I was there was aying to visit
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: the family. I'm like, some landmarks that were incredibly popular
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: five years ago are not there or thriving.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: But aren't I mean they've tried their best. If anything,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: they've tried their best to make this as off as possible.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Pause when you think about it, and this is the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: unfortunate part of interest rates, right, Like people are going
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to lose jobs, right, we have to have people lose
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: jobs in order to bring that rate down.
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: Were they over hire during at the beginning of the
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: pandemic twenty were at zero?
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So the non the non farm jobs have come down, right,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: that would be a positive sign, right, right, Inflation has
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: come down. So like these these things, whether they've been
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: manufactured or not. I mean, we'd have to be like
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: an expert economist to actually follow those numbers like stridently.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: But isn't that Like this is part of the hardship
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: that comes with if we want a half percent or
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: a quarter percent in September, like, these things have to happen.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is the natural course if we
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: want rates to come down.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: No, very true.
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: But also when they hire at the rate of three
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: x because the interest rate was zero. When when does
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: venture capital and angel investors get the blame for causing
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: this mass introduction of all these jobs that were not needed.
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: Private equity is.
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: Going through a whole shit show that no one will
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: wants to talk about. And we gotta tell the truth.
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: They over hired. And if the entire American economy is
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: tied to janitor of AI, that can make a dog's
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: ear bigger.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: We are fucked.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Shady.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: What three companies right now?
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: If your entire life, savings and brain was on the line,
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: that you put your money into Microsoft and investment, invest
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: up and I will play two more.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: What's up?
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: We're talking today? But out of that, notice all the
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: companies we're not mentioning.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: We I mean, we gave thirty the other day.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: I do want to say, I'm glad you said that,
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: because I want to get your perspective.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: You gotta give us two.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: I think it was a rhetorical I think it was rhetorical. Well,
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: I thought it was not literal.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: That you can't give us two.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: I gave you Microsoft already. What's up?
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: You got to I mean, of course you're gonna go
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: Microsoft off.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: That's the number one draft pick.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: Stacy.
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: Microsoft is our bond market for shot up. I'll told
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: you in two thousand and nine, Microsoft will be our
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: bond market. You would say I was crazy, right, No
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: single equity should be the most stable thing in our market.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: That's fair.
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 15:20
  Speaker 6: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 15:36
  Speaker 6: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported. You will
• 15:59
  Speaker 6: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 16:03
  Speaker 6: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: border and families will be protected.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,