Latest / Financial Survival Network / Buy and Hold or Buy and Fold - Eddy Gifford #5785

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Buy and Hold or Buy and Fold - Eddy Gifford #5785 · Financial Survival Network

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Welcome you are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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Carrie Letts. CPI number comes out today. Oh it looks so good if
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you could only believe it just five point one percent or year over year.
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But what aren't they telling you? What do you need to know? Eddie
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Gifford is with us now frequent guest to the show. Eddie, welcome back.
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So you must be encouraged by the CPI report today. Very thanks for
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having me. Yeah, I think that I don't know if I'm encouraged from
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the standpoint that you know, we're basically just staying right in alignment with expectations.
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The good thing is is that like we're not off on the wrong side
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of things. So I think what it does is it gives us more clarification
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that the Fed's going to come with one more great hike unless something weird happens
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over the next two weeks, of course, and that's going to be kind
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of you know, the slow and steady race that they're trying to fight.
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Of Course, there's a lot of stuff that can happen. There's some signs
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that a couple of things might have broken. We look at last month as
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a proxy, so I'm interested to see how everything goes. But I'm still
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not convinced that we're out of the woods yet. Not out of the woods
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yet. I'm not convinced either. These inflationary friends tend to take ten to
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twenty years. They don't just go away after a year. And what everything
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the FED told us has been wrong? Transitory inflation? It's transitory. Well,
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everything in life is transitory when you get down to it. Why should
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you believe them over this, Well, I think it's one of those things
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where you kind of can't. Right, if we go all the way back
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to the seventies, the way that they calculated CPI compared today is completely different,
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and in fact, like some experts have said that if they used the
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same methods they used back then, our inflation numbers would be double what they
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are today. And I think that, you know, when I talk to
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clients on a daily basis, I feel like that's where they're at. And
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the other thing that people don't remember or don't realize is that, you know,
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even if you know we are five today, and even if a year
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from now inflations three or even two for that matter, all this stuff just
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stacks on top of each other. Right, So it was ten percent,
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and then it was another five percent on top of that, and it's another
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three percent on top of that, and there's another two percent on top of
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that. Well, you look like ty three to four year time period,
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and we're talking about the monthly outlay being thirty or forty percent higher because of
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that stack in effect, and there's only so much we can take as consumers
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before we start to break down. And you know, the increase in interstrates
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doesn't help. It doesn't help at all. And in fact, the reason
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that they're trying to increase rates is because they are trying to break something.
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The easiest way to take demand out of the market is to break something so
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that everybody just fleas and doesn't buy anything anymore. And so it's it's definitely
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hard to be like, oh, yeah, they have it right this time.
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I don't think the FED has ever actually had anything right. I think
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there's a good chance that they've already overtightened, and so you know, the
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question is is just when is that thing going to break and what is it
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going to be. I don't know, but I think that a lot of
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people have like this uneasy feeling, and I don't think they're wrong, right,
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I mean, yeah, obviously, look at the regional banks. They
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broke them, right, Yes, definitely, the regional banks are kind of
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like the first and the thing that that whole situation is over, I think
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is very naive. The reality is is that every single bank, big or
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small, does have a lot of these long dated treasuries on the books.
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Their balance sheets are going to look very very bad this year. And you
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know, the reality is is that but before a couple of weeks ago where
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they got backstopped, there was a lot more risk, of course, but
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the things are kind of breaking down, and I don't know if it's going
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to be a big bank that goes under. I don't know if they're what's
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going to happen, but it feels like there's another credit event looming. It
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could be the fact that everybody refuses the slowdown unspending, and so they're do
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the whole buy now, pay later thing for everything. So the stating effect
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continues. It's just at what point does it hit that hit and just like
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burst. And unfortunately, the thing that always happens with these things is that
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it's the one thing we weren't thinking about or weren't talking about. And I
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don't know what it is, but it's it's hard to be like, oh,
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yeah, we should just go one hundred percent stock market right now.
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The information you need to drop now more than ever. Well, when
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we're looking at portfolios in general, portfolio construction is huge, and so you
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know that the whole like diversification thing, but actually be truly diversified. You
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own own stuff like bonds, own stuff like gold, own the precious metals.
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There are probably some cryptocurrency like bitcoin in there too, and then have
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an exit strategy for everything that you're actually buying, right, it doesn't just
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just buying it itself and then forgetting about it. I mean, technically that's
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a strategy. Technically that's a plan, but you should have an exit strategy.
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You should have like I'm going to buy this because of this reason,
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but I'm gonna say it when it hits this because I'm going to cut my
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losses, or I'm going to take money off the table when it hits this
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because I'm going to take some profits. So I think having an actual investment
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plan with several different types of investments in it is important. I think that
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there's you know, there's there's merit, but there's also danger to the idea
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of, well, I'm just gonna put all my money in treasuries because I
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can earn four and a half five percent. The problem is is that when
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does the money go back in? Right? What if what if this melt
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up that we've seen so far since October of last year, go spend another
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one hundred percent before it pops, because that could definitely happen. And you
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know, and and I mean, if we're sitting on the sideline earning five
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like, maybe we're comfortable there. I mean at the day, it just
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comes down to whether or not the client is comfortable or the person is comfortable.
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But at the same time, if you're missing out on a thirty forty
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fifty percent increase on the other side, that can really beat you up emotionally
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and psychologically as well. Right, So I think the versification having an exit
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strategy. But any money that you need in the next six, twelve,
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eighteen months, don't take risk with it. There's just really too many unknown
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factors out there. I couldn't agree with you more. And so caution is
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the buy word. Don't buy and hold, but don't buy and fold either,
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right exactly. I mean you have to have you either need to work
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in with an advisor that has a rule set of this is what we buy,
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this is when we buy it, this is when we get out,
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And so we're taking the emotion out of things. The may invaritate, the
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more evolved how that things get, The more emotional people get, and the
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more they're likely to act on something that maybe they wouldn't have acted on if
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they were just like looking at it or zooming out before making that move.
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So I think that you know, definitely having a plan of not only like,
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oh, what's my long term financial plan? How do I hit my
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retirement? What do I do for my savings goals and that type of stuff,
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but actually have like, hey, when I buy this, if it
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goes down ten percent, I'm going to get out, right, if it
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goes up fifteen percent, I'm going to take some money off the table.
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I mean, I'm a Vegas boy. I'm from Las Vegas. So I
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know that any successful gambler out there has their set of rules and they follow
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them right and I think that the same thing holds true an investment land right
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now. We got to have rules, we got to follow them, and
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we got to stay away from all the emotional distress that can happen because we
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could be up fifteen percent next month and we could also be down thirty percent
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next month. That's just the kind of market that we're in. Exactly.
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Couldn't agree more. Well, we appreciate you're coming on as always, Eddie,
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tell us where we find you on the web, how we connect with
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you. So obviously one of the easiest ways to go to that thing called
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Google and type in Eddie Gifford. That's Eddie with a Y Gifford GI f
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O r D. But the website is cactivewealth dot com backslash Eddie Gifford.
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That's the easiest way to kind of like get out there and kind of do
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like your own research on me and then see where I've been and learn a
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little bit more about my story. But I'm excited to talk to anyone who
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while wants to just get a different perspective or maybe a different opinion on things,
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since everyone really seems to be the same. Well, you know what
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they say about opinions. But in any event, if you've got a question
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for Eddie, shoot us an email or myself for that matter, k l
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at Kerry Lutz dot com. Make sure you go over to the site Financial
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Survival Network dot com and you'll find a link to Eddie's site in the show
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notes. Just click it and you'll get there and sign up for your free
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newsletter while you're at it. Eddie a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by.
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Thank you for having me Kerry, as I always have a great day.
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Thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying
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times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial
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