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The Favorites - Can You Bet On Politics? · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from
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Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Mellman, Chief Content
1:25
Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I will be joined as
1:30
Speaker 1: I always am, by my bff, my companion, Michael Padre
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Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter, et Oh, Simon Chad Brother. I'm
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Speaker 1: excited for today's episode. You know how much I love
1:45
Speaker 1: talking politics. Listen, I'm glad you're previewing it. So uh.
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Speaker 1: We have a special guest on today, Alex Keeney, who
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Speaker 1: is better known as Keen Dog and host of the
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Speaker 1: popular Star Spangled Gamblers podcast. He is a vet in
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Speaker 1: in the up and coming world of online prediction markets.
2:05
Speaker 1: We have been talking about this at Action for years.
2:08
Speaker 1: Since we launched, we have been writing stories about really
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Speaker 1: the political betting markets, which is where a lot of
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Speaker 1: this interest comes in and for news junkies or those
2:23
Speaker 1: interested in betting on or investing in the world of
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Speaker 1: politics world events. Betting exchanges have become a go to
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Speaker 1: way to invest and profit on the stuff we see
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Speaker 1: every day in the news. And I will tell you
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Speaker 1: right now. And I'm gonna want to ask Alice about this,
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Speaker 1: Like the twenty presidential election and the presidential elections, those markets,
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Speaker 1: we're predicting what the outcome was going to be long
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Speaker 1: before the polls were showing it, and we're in some
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Speaker 1: cases more predictive than the polls, both with Trump and
3:03
Speaker 1: with Biden. Um, Alex, I feel like doing a podcast
3:10
Speaker 1: like this is a long time coming, especially now when
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Speaker 1: there's so much heat in political markets, and I know
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Speaker 1: this is broader than that. Uh, tell me how you
3:20
Speaker 1: get into this? How did I get into it? Well?
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Speaker 1: First of all, Um, Chad Simon, thank you for for
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Speaker 1: for having me on to represent all of the political
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Speaker 1: gambling degenerates out there in the Twitter sphere. Um. I
3:32
Speaker 1: got into it probably the way a lot of people do,
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Speaker 1: which is they clicked on a link that they thought
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Speaker 1: was a joke and it turned out to be real. So, UM,
3:40
Speaker 1: my first trade was I was batting on whether or
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Speaker 1: not Brett Kavanaugh would make it onto the Supreme Court,
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Speaker 1: if you can remember that kind of nasty and contentious
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Speaker 1: period in politics. And I made like triple my money
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Speaker 1: on my first trade. I just figured, you know, gambling
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Speaker 1: was going to be easy. Picking winners was gonna be easy.
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Speaker 1: It would always be that way, And it turns out
3:57
Speaker 1: that it's you know, harder than that. But uh, I
3:59
Speaker 1: was hooked by success, as many many betters probably are.
4:05
Speaker 1: And what is like what's your background? Were you? Are
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Speaker 1: you a trader by trade? Are you a gambling fiend? Like?
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Speaker 1: How do you even decide to click on that? I'm
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Speaker 1: like actually terrified of gambling, like it it like literally
4:19
Speaker 1: keeps me up at night. But I know that I
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Speaker 1: win more often than I lose, so I can put
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Speaker 1: myself back to sleep. Do you have a real job? Um?
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Speaker 1: I do? I do. I live in l A, so
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Speaker 1: I do all that like fake l A stuff um
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Speaker 1: like content marketing and digital media and whatever. But um,
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Speaker 1: I actually worked in politics for m a while in
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Speaker 1: my career, and I got into TV and didn't feel
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Speaker 1: like people love me enough and TV, so I thought
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Speaker 1: I'd kind of prove them wrong by For some reason,
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Speaker 1: I thought betting on politics would be a good way
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Speaker 1: to prove prove the haters wrong. But you know, it's
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Speaker 1: my competitive side that'll show them, Alex right right, show
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Speaker 1: those beta cuts. That's a that's an industry term, like
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Speaker 1: I know we're going to talk about like the difference
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Speaker 1: between prediction markets and betting on a game at a
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Speaker 1: sports book. And before we get into sort of the
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Speaker 1: details of this specifically, can you shed any light on
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Speaker 1: what you saw in um with specifically the presidential market
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Speaker 1: between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Well, this is experience
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Speaker 1: with that. This is a very sensitive subject. I might
5:34
Speaker 1: I might trigger some political gamblers here, um that. Well,
5:38
Speaker 1: the thing that was so funny about the election was
5:42
Speaker 1: is that all the you know, professional big time winners,
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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars a year of winnings, all these guys
5:48
Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be a blowout election, and all
5:50
Speaker 1: the kind of meat heads that they wrote off as
5:52
Speaker 1: they used to call them, maga money, you know, they
5:54
Speaker 1: just love Donald Trump and would bet on them everywhere,
5:56
Speaker 1: kind of had a right that it was going to
5:58
Speaker 1: be a really close election and um, not a blowout.
6:01
Speaker 1: So the pros I think actually lost money or or
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Speaker 1: really underperformed in that election. Um when Joe Biden you know,
6:09
Speaker 1: did not talking conspiracy theory level almost losing an election,
6:14
Speaker 1: but compared to you know what the mainstream media, Chuck Todd,
6:18
Speaker 1: John King were predicting. Uh, it was a fairly close election,
6:21
Speaker 1: so it was there was a lot of um, A
6:23
Speaker 1: lot of money was made by people who were written
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Speaker 1: off as idiots. This is the truth. Yeah, I would
6:27
Speaker 1: say most professionals said that if there wasn't the whole
6:31
Speaker 1: right in ballot, probably would be a different present. That's
6:34
Speaker 1: why the big flip happened. Where these pros they saw
6:37
Speaker 1: what was happening At two three in the morning that
6:39
Speaker 1: election night, the ballots started coming in that were mailed in,
6:43
Speaker 1: and that's where they got off. So again, you're right,
6:45
Speaker 1: a lot of pros I know, did lose big, but man,
6:48
Speaker 1: did they get it back once the info came out there,
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Speaker 1: Like dude, there's millions of votes being counted and guess what,
6:54
Speaker 1: a lot of them were Democratic. I mean, that was again,
6:57
Speaker 1: we'll never see it again because I don't think wellever
6:59
Speaker 1: another election like that with COVID obviously, but that was
7:02
Speaker 1: really cool watching Lifetime. Like Chad talked about the Action Network,
7:05
Speaker 1: I kept refreshing the homepage and just kept watching Biden's
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Speaker 1: odds go from what was it like plus two fifty
7:10
Speaker 1: of the peak all of a sudden six am, seven am.
7:13
Speaker 1: It's minus was like, holy sh it, Like this whole
7:16
Speaker 1: thing flipped like from that three am till seven am
7:20
Speaker 1: in the morning. That was pretty wild, right, right, Like
7:22
Speaker 1: the way that the markets are kind of real time
7:24
Speaker 1: up and down, there was the chance, I think that
7:27
Speaker 1: three o'clock before dawn to start buying you know, Joe
7:30
Speaker 1: Biden to win Georgia, Joe Biden to win Arizona. Uh,
7:33
Speaker 1: you know, and uh a lot of his money was
7:35
Speaker 1: made while the world was sleeping. So explain the difference
7:39
Speaker 1: between the exchanges and the sports books and where it's
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Speaker 1: legal and sort of how betting in this framework is
7:50
Speaker 1: different than betting on a game. Well, can I tell
7:52
Speaker 1: you the best part first? Well, first of all, you
7:56
Speaker 1: don't have to be right to win money, um, and
7:59
Speaker 1: you can the answer in advance, so you don't necessarily
8:02
Speaker 1: even need to like watch the game to know how
8:04
Speaker 1: it's gonna end. So what I mean by that is, um,
8:07
Speaker 1: a lot of times you're betting against you know, you
8:09
Speaker 1: just need to be a step ahead of the news
8:11
Speaker 1: because we're trading on effectively a stock market, right, and
8:14
Speaker 1: so every time a new news story comes out, Uh,
8:17
Speaker 1: the odds of just you know, you're dealing with human
8:19
Speaker 1: beings who are on the other side of the trade.
8:21
Speaker 1: They're panicking. They're wondering if they, you know, read Joe
8:24
Speaker 1: Biden wrong, or if that thing that Joe Manson just
8:27
Speaker 1: said from the Senate did he really mean what he
8:29
Speaker 1: just said. So people are freaking out. In real time,
8:32
Speaker 1: you have the opportunity to sell or to buy more.
8:35
Speaker 1: And really you just need to be smarter than the
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Speaker 1: average trader in that particular market. So you don't have
8:40
Speaker 1: to be right. You just have to be a little
8:41
Speaker 1: bit smarter than the other people who are playing. And
8:43
Speaker 1: sometimes that's not that hard. Um. And then in some
8:46
Speaker 1: cases you can just learn the answer. I mean, there's
8:49
Speaker 1: a bet right now on whether or not Donald Trump
8:51
Speaker 1: will be indicted in Georgia by a grand jury that
8:53
Speaker 1: doesn't have the legal authority to make a criminal indictment.
8:57
Speaker 1: You can get the ad the answer in advance and win.
9:01
Speaker 1: So it's um. I think in some ways it's actually
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Speaker 1: a great deal easier than sports betting. Where can I
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Speaker 1: do it? Uh? The biggest betting exchange that's legal is
9:12
Speaker 1: a website called predict it uh, and we have a
9:15
Speaker 1: promotion on Star Spangled Gamblers to get you like two
9:19
Speaker 1: of matching money to start, So there's the promotional content.
9:23
Speaker 1: Predicted is the largest legal betting exchange. They offer several
9:26
Speaker 1: hundred bets, mostly on elections, but also on like a
9:29
Speaker 1: wide variety of other things. Again it's a stock market, uh, prices,
9:34
Speaker 1: you can sell, you can buy, you can sell in
9:36
Speaker 1: and out at your level of comfort. There's a website
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Speaker 1: called Calci that has a serious amount of Silicon Valley
9:42
Speaker 1: funny money that's building a wider net of prediction markets
9:45
Speaker 1: so literally like the weather. Uh, it's like truly degenerate stuff,
9:50
Speaker 1: but also you know CNBC type stuff too, in addition
9:52
Speaker 1: to CNN type stuff. And then there's a third website
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Speaker 1: that d gens like myself know about and used, but
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Speaker 1: it's I don't think you can using the United States
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Speaker 1: anymore called poly market. It is blockchain to nominated, but
10:04
Speaker 1: they post fascinating and profitable markets as well. So those
10:07
Speaker 1: are your three big players. I know I want something
10:09
Speaker 1: to jumping because I know he's got some question for you.
10:13
Speaker 1: But you say you can find the answer before. I
10:19
Speaker 1: don't really know what that means. Well, can I give
10:22
Speaker 1: you example? Okay? Um, most people are really bored by
10:27
Speaker 1: the United States Senate, like, are you kind of bored
10:29
Speaker 1: by the time the word comes out of my mouth? Us, Senate,
10:33
Speaker 1: I'm getting some nods here, okay, And most people are
10:37
Speaker 1: really bored by like you know, your average cavert secretarary,
10:40
Speaker 1: you know, Janet yelling at the Treasury or something. Well,
10:42
Speaker 1: when Joe Biden was nominating people to be in his
10:45
Speaker 1: in his Treasury secretaries and labor and whatever, it got
10:49
Speaker 1: to a point where, you know, every bet has an
10:51
Speaker 1: expiration date, it has to hit by certain date and
10:54
Speaker 1: then it pays out. And it got to the point
10:55
Speaker 1: where if you added up the amount of time using
10:58
Speaker 1: Senate procedure that it takes to confirm the nominee, it's
11:01
Speaker 1: all written down, it's all written down somewhere, and you
11:03
Speaker 1: start adding up the time for each nominee, you could
11:06
Speaker 1: reach the conclusion that most of them were not going
11:08
Speaker 1: to be confirmed, at which point the smart thing to
11:12
Speaker 1: do was to buy, you know, bets at the ten
11:14
Speaker 1: multiple that you know that paid like a slot machine.
11:18
Speaker 1: So again the point is, you know, if you know
11:20
Speaker 1: the question and you know where to look for the answer, um,
11:23
Speaker 1: oftentimes you can get a tremendous edge with you know,
11:27
Speaker 1: just a couple of hours work. What are you're you're
11:30
Speaker 1: just betting on the fact that other people aren't going
11:32
Speaker 1: to do this work right, or that you know, you know,
11:35
Speaker 1: politics probably like sports in the sense that people are
11:38
Speaker 1: into it tend to think they know everything, and you know,
11:40
Speaker 1: of course no one knows everything. So you know, you're
11:43
Speaker 1: you're batting against people's hubrists. Literally, you know it's a
11:46
Speaker 1: paramutual bet. You're betting against the guy on the other
11:48
Speaker 1: side of the trade. What are some example of the
11:52
Speaker 1: market you can trade in when you're doing this, like
11:56
Speaker 1: like presidential nominees, world events. Oh yeah, I mean you
12:00
Speaker 1: name it right now. Of course you know who's going
12:02
Speaker 1: to be president or you know it's Rhonda Santis is
12:04
Speaker 1: gonna win um mass mandates on airplanes? That's one you
12:09
Speaker 1: can bet on. Who is gonna be the mayor of Philadelphia.
12:12
Speaker 1: I don't know that you can bank that exact trade
12:14
Speaker 1: right now, but if there's an election pending, they will
12:17
Speaker 1: eventually be able to. Yes, the mayor of San Jose
12:20
Speaker 1: is a trade right now, and it's it's it's it's
12:22
Speaker 1: a good value plate too, if I may say so. Well,
12:26
Speaker 1: like the Mayor of San Jose before you decided that
12:31
Speaker 1: was going to be something you wanted to participate in.
12:34
Speaker 1: How much research had you done? What made you realize
12:37
Speaker 1: there was value? Well, um, you know there are trends
12:41
Speaker 1: in politics. There's trends in every marketplace. One of the
12:44
Speaker 1: trends in politics right now we're kind of very liberal
12:47
Speaker 1: cities becoming frustrated with um, sort of progressive leadership. Not
12:52
Speaker 1: trying to pass judgment here, that's not what we do. Um.
12:55
Speaker 1: But you can see the trend in other cities like
12:57
Speaker 1: San Jose and you look at, you know, a marketplace
13:00
Speaker 1: that is giving like an eight to one shot to
13:03
Speaker 1: the Harvard grad with experience in the business community against
13:07
Speaker 1: sort of hockey city hall insider. You know, you can
13:10
Speaker 1: start to see the tape replaying from some of these
13:12
Speaker 1: other news stories we've seen so um. You know, it's
13:16
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15:04
Speaker 1: Are there markets where you feel like you can see
15:10
Speaker 1: enough patterns over time you don't need to do a
15:13
Speaker 1: lot of research before you decide to invest. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Um.
15:18
Speaker 1: I worked on Capital Hill for five years, so I
15:20
Speaker 1: feel like I have a pretty intuitive understanding of how
15:23
Speaker 1: a senator will vote or uh, you know, if the
15:26
Speaker 1: Congress is interested in something or if they're just blowing
15:29
Speaker 1: smoke up the sort of mass of proverbial voters. Um.
15:34
Speaker 1: But you know, it's nothing that people can't learn, you know,
15:37
Speaker 1: it's all everything. It's public, like there's is all public information.
15:40
Speaker 1: You know, if you if you care enough to read
15:42
Speaker 1: the New York Times or Wall Street Journal in the morning,
15:45
Speaker 1: you've already got an edge over most of the people
15:47
Speaker 1: who are betting because they are not doing that, believe
15:49
Speaker 1: it or not. What is the amount of money you
15:55
Speaker 1: can trade on these exchanges? So the grand daddy of
16:01
Speaker 1: them all predicted is capped by the government unfortunately at
16:04
Speaker 1: eight fifty of that. Now there's workarounds. But Calci the
16:10
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley you know money bags company, Uh, their limit
16:14
Speaker 1: is k and um Polly market out there in blockchain Netherland.
16:21
Speaker 1: There's no limit there. So um just depends on what
16:24
Speaker 1: you want to bet on it where the action is cleared.
16:26
Speaker 1: So the biggest market predicted as a limit of eight
16:30
Speaker 1: and fifty bucks right, the next one, which is sort
16:33
Speaker 1: of the venture backed, high high flying startup, you can
16:38
Speaker 1: bet up K. So do you do this for a living?
16:43
Speaker 1: Is this how you make the majority of your money? No? Okay,
16:46
Speaker 1: I don't have the I don't want to sound like
16:49
Speaker 1: a weenye man, but I couldn't imagine being one of
16:52
Speaker 1: those guys pushing around, you know, like one to million
16:55
Speaker 1: dollar bank roll, trying to grind out a couple of
16:57
Speaker 1: grand a week on the You know, that hustle is
16:59
Speaker 1: a tough one. Someone's got brother, you're talking You're talking
17:03
Speaker 1: to one of them respect to you man, So in
17:07
Speaker 1: these exchanges, then the reason I ask these questions is
17:10
Speaker 1: because are there sharps? Are there squares? Like? How does
17:14
Speaker 1: the market work? Yeah, they're there are a number of
17:17
Speaker 1: people who there aren't a lot. There are a number
17:19
Speaker 1: of people who are probably earning in the hundred thousand
17:21
Speaker 1: dollar range during this full time. Um, there are they're
17:26
Speaker 1: they're wonderful nicknames for the squares out there. There was
17:29
Speaker 1: the first is the maga money. Trump's out of office,
17:32
Speaker 1: so that kind of dumb maga money has proceeded. Now
17:34
Speaker 1: it's the Biden squares. The Biden squares are the people
17:37
Speaker 1: who made easy money betting on Joe Biden but in
17:40
Speaker 1: the election and just been giving it back. So uh yeah,
17:43
Speaker 1: I mean, any any time that you can bet against,
17:46
Speaker 1: especially a partisan lightning rod of a candidate or someone
17:49
Speaker 1: that's got kind of a cult around them, like Bernie
17:51
Speaker 1: Sanders or something like that, you can always get good odds.
17:55
Speaker 1: You just gotta know where to look for. Yeah. I
17:56
Speaker 1: think a lot of political betters talk all the time
17:58
Speaker 1: about how easy it is if you just like you
18:01
Speaker 1: talked about, pay attention to your history, you read up
18:04
Speaker 1: on what's happening. It's never a surprise where you know, Bush,
18:08
Speaker 1: We've all seen the movie Vice. We saw how this
18:10
Speaker 1: man kind of got reelected. He did his eight years.
18:13
Speaker 1: It was no shock that when Obama came up, he
18:16
Speaker 1: was probably gonna win. And then after Obama was done,
18:19
Speaker 1: a lot of pro said, you know, mathematically, it's probably
18:22
Speaker 1: a seventy percent chance that a Republican will win after
18:25
Speaker 1: a Democrat has just served eight years. That's not because
18:28
Speaker 1: he actually thought Trump was gonna win. They're just looking
18:30
Speaker 1: at straight math off the book of what historically has
18:32
Speaker 1: happened in this country. So I would like to just
18:35
Speaker 1: broke it down there where it's like a lot of
18:37
Speaker 1: tea leaves, like these guys who put in the Times,
18:39
Speaker 1: they can make money off of it, Like you talked
18:41
Speaker 1: about it's hard because most of these books are gonna
18:43
Speaker 1: have to be off shore. Like it's just America hasn't
18:46
Speaker 1: legalized it yet, and it's like very slow for them
18:49
Speaker 1: to figure out how to really take bets on these
18:51
Speaker 1: political stuff. So it is kind of cool how he's
18:53
Speaker 1: telling people like there are ways around it in this country.
18:56
Speaker 1: I didn't even know about these sites. Let me put
18:58
Speaker 1: a fire point on it, it's it's legal with constraints.
19:02
Speaker 1: The constraints can be a little bit suffocating for you know,
19:05
Speaker 1: a company like Predicted. In a company like Calcy, the
19:07
Speaker 1: activity is more limited than you might like. So, assuming
19:12
Speaker 1: our audience aren't really political insiders, what would be the
19:16
Speaker 1: attraction of exchange to our regular, every day better What
19:20
Speaker 1: does it sound investment strategy look like on these kind
19:22
Speaker 1: of sites. And again, I don't think that people should
19:25
Speaker 1: be deterred by not being an insider. I mean, if
19:27
Speaker 1: you think about some of the worst the worst political predictions,
19:31
Speaker 1: you know they tend to come from within the political system. Right,
19:34
Speaker 1: we had the White House telling us there was no
19:36
Speaker 1: inflation just a couple of months ago. Well, like we
19:39
Speaker 1: all knew that onen't true. Look, you can't make someone
19:42
Speaker 1: be a gambler, you can't make someone become an investor.
19:45
Speaker 1: But if you pay cursory attention to what's going on,
19:47
Speaker 1: you know, there's simple ways that you can grind out returns.
19:51
Speaker 1: You know, like I said, batting against cult like candidates,
19:54
Speaker 1: batting against something happening, Usually nothing happening is the most
19:58
Speaker 1: likely outcome. Put liquidity into the marketplace for bets that
20:02
Speaker 1: you know are closing in a month and the outcomes
20:05
Speaker 1: already decided, But the bet itself doesn't you know, stuff
20:08
Speaker 1: like that easy ways to generate returns pretty passively. So
20:11
Speaker 1: would you say there's a lot of parallels between sports
20:13
Speaker 1: betting political betting, like you're gathering trust info, signal versus noises,
20:17
Speaker 1: bilo sell high Like do you do a lot of
20:19
Speaker 1: that same stuff? Yeah? Yeah, absolutely. I mean I feel
20:22
Speaker 1: safe for doing it because I can lay off my
20:24
Speaker 1: risk anytime I want. You know, I know about the
20:27
Speaker 1: most I'm gonna lose if I if I pull the
20:29
Speaker 1: ejection seat. What's interesting about betting on politics is that
20:34
Speaker 1: unlike sports, even though it's legal, there's still a little
20:38
Speaker 1: bit of a church and state separation, and that the
20:43
Speaker 1: betting isn't explicitly discussed during the game. It's not explicitly
20:49
Speaker 1: discussed during the pregame shows. The broadcast companies are still
20:55
Speaker 1: worried about alienating part of the audience because it's still
20:59
Speaker 1: the majority of auto is that isn't interested in betting.
21:02
Speaker 1: That's not the case in politics, right, everything is about prediction. Prediction,
21:07
Speaker 1: prediction that is the vernacular, that is the window through
21:11
Speaker 1: which all of this is viewed. Could there be a
21:15
Speaker 1: concern with bigger money compromising these markets? And and do
21:21
Speaker 1: you see these markets having an impact on how elections
21:25
Speaker 1: can be discussed or potentially determined. Political gambling isn't really new.
21:30
Speaker 1: I mean, it's like new as a consumer phenomenon. But
21:33
Speaker 1: you know, if you go to work in a shiny
21:35
Speaker 1: suit on K Street, or you're involved in your local,
21:38
Speaker 1: you know, political scene in your hometown, those people's jobs
21:42
Speaker 1: are putting money in pockets of politicians, making bets, hedging
21:46
Speaker 1: their interests so that when the elections settled, everyone's taken
21:49
Speaker 1: care of. So I you know, if you if we
21:52
Speaker 1: want to play a war of memes, I think that
21:54
Speaker 1: this is just a consumer consumers doing what political insiders
21:56
Speaker 1: all already do. But I think it's useful, you know,
22:00
Speaker 1: for the national dialogue. We only talk about things that
22:04
Speaker 1: are real. We don't talk about memes. We don't talk
22:06
Speaker 1: about conspiracy theories. We don't blame you know, immigrants or
22:10
Speaker 1: the white working class or whatever the newest thing that
22:13
Speaker 1: we're supposed to dislike for you know, things happening in
22:15
Speaker 1: the world that are we perceive as bad, Like you
22:18
Speaker 1: have to be right, like if you're going to be
22:19
Speaker 1: in a casino, Like, if you're gonna put money on
22:21
Speaker 1: the line, you have to be really honest about what's
22:23
Speaker 1: going on. So I think there's a lot of utility
22:25
Speaker 1: for that, And frankly, it's more fun like when you
22:27
Speaker 1: when you were playing in a casino and not a
22:29
Speaker 1: government building, you are having fun. So I would love
22:32
Speaker 1: to see more of that in the political discourse, and
22:34
Speaker 1: that's what we do at Star Spangled Gamblers. What are
22:37
Speaker 1: strategies Okay, if you're if you're sort of being successful here,
22:41
Speaker 1: what are the strategies that successful traders are using within
22:47
Speaker 1: these predictive marketplaces you've mentioned one or two sort of
22:51
Speaker 1: being ahead of the news or really digging into the
22:54
Speaker 1: arcane details. What are other ways in which you can
22:58
Speaker 1: execute successfully? Well? Think you got to know your limits too.
23:01
Speaker 1: I mean, do you guys bet on everything or you
23:04
Speaker 1: just you know, just football and basketball but never hockey,
23:07
Speaker 1: or like, how do you guys do it? I've been
23:09
Speaker 1: at all, but I'm getting really good information, so it's
23:11
Speaker 1: a little different. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Like if a guy
23:14
Speaker 1: I trust hits me up, he's like, hey, there's a
23:16
Speaker 1: cricket torment starting India in two hours. It's England Verse
23:20
Speaker 1: whoever whales that betting on in this tournament. But it's
23:24
Speaker 1: a seven day long bet. It's like I'll bet it
23:27
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, in seven days, I'll
23:28
Speaker 1: see the plus a thousand of my account. But yeah,
23:31
Speaker 1: it's it might be a little different. I know Chad,
23:33
Speaker 1: Chad bets a decent amount, especially because he works for
23:36
Speaker 1: a gambling company, but we're probably a little different than most. Yeah,
23:39
Speaker 1: I like, I am mostly football, NFL football, then n
23:43
Speaker 1: b A and I usually let my fandom dictate my
23:48
Speaker 1: betting habits. Not not to mean that I'm I'm betting
23:52
Speaker 1: on teams that I love, but those are the sports
23:55
Speaker 1: that I'm watching the most. That's where I feel most
23:58
Speaker 1: comfortable about my level of information versus what the market
24:01
Speaker 1: is predicting. And so that, combined with the information I
24:07
Speaker 1: can glean from experts like Simon or experts like Matt Moore,
24:11
Speaker 1: who's one of our NBA analysts, like I can start
24:14
Speaker 1: to get a better sense of what makes me comfortable.
24:17
Speaker 1: And then like the other stuff, you know, college basketball,
24:21
Speaker 1: I'll usually just tail people and and see sort of
24:25
Speaker 1: where I'm comfortable. But I'm usually doing that at a
24:28
Speaker 1: much lower limit. That sounds exactly right for you know
24:31
Speaker 1: what we're doing over here? Adding on politics, you know,
24:34
Speaker 1: know your strengths, you know your weaknesses. Uh, and make
24:38
Speaker 1: good friends to you know, help offset the gap in
24:40
Speaker 1: between the two. And I always wanted can trading in
24:42
Speaker 1: these markets make you like a smarter or more informed
24:45
Speaker 1: citizen or will it simply make you more cynical? I
24:48
Speaker 1: don't know. I feel like that depends on the type
24:50
Speaker 1: of person you are. Do you think you would become
24:52
Speaker 1: a happier, jolly or person de jailing with us now?
24:56
Speaker 1: Like I stay away from politics because I feel like
24:58
Speaker 1: it's such a miserable world to be because it's like,
25:01
Speaker 1: not that we've all experienced it, but we've all been
25:03
Speaker 1: there where you're at a family party and you're just
25:05
Speaker 1: stuck with the two crazy uncles going back and forth,
25:08
Speaker 1: where it's like, God, it doesn't matter, can't we just
25:10
Speaker 1: enjoy this dinner? But I can't imagine betting on it
25:13
Speaker 1: because you're in it seven like you're always hearing the
25:16
Speaker 1: rumors always here in the news right right, and I
25:18
Speaker 1: mean so much the game is just like not letting
25:21
Speaker 1: yourself react to it while everyone else does listen I've
25:24
Speaker 1: worked in politics for years. I know a lot of
25:26
Speaker 1: people who are you know, high level political insiders. They're
25:29
Speaker 1: not as smart as the people who were doing this.
25:32
Speaker 1: Like people who are betting on politics only get paid
25:34
Speaker 1: when they're right, so they really got to be right.
25:36
Speaker 1: And they're from the weirdest occupations. But you know, as
25:39
Speaker 1: you just describe yourself, that the sense of trust that
25:42
Speaker 1: you have, you know with the public school vice principle
25:45
Speaker 1: in the Midwest, you know when he texts you about
25:48
Speaker 1: some random election in Oregon or something. Uh, that's like
25:51
Speaker 1: a lot of the fun of it. You know, it's
25:52
Speaker 1: like the community and the trust and like the excitement
25:55
Speaker 1: that exists as you develop your advantage in these markets.
25:59
Speaker 1: So you just into something keen. This is This is
26:01
Speaker 1: the last question I think, which is you really need
26:04
Speaker 1: to know your stuff in order to win. It does
26:07
Speaker 1: make you a little bit more informed. One are the
26:10
Speaker 1: best places to get this information that allows you to
26:13
Speaker 1: feel informed enough to make a bet? Well, I mean
26:17
Speaker 1: there's there's the easy stuff and the hard stuff that
26:19
Speaker 1: you know. The easy stuff is you just go to
26:21
Speaker 1: Star Spangled Gamblers. Uh, you know, we cover all of
26:24
Speaker 1: this stuff with you know, all the pros or contributors.
26:27
Speaker 1: You can learn what they're trading on and what they're
26:29
Speaker 1: not trading on. But you know, Politico and Um punch Bowl,
26:33
Speaker 1: you know, have morning newsletters that are very insider friendly. Uh.
26:36
Speaker 1: Nothing is better than watching c spans that you can
26:39
Speaker 1: actually get into the minds of these people and how
26:41
Speaker 1: they think. Um and frankly like watching you know, shitty
26:45
Speaker 1: partisan news. That's helpful too. You know, you you watch
26:49
Speaker 1: Rachel Mattow every night and you'll know what you know,
26:51
Speaker 1: like white ladies with cats who are upset about stuff.
26:54
Speaker 1: You know, you'll understand how they're thinking and then you
26:56
Speaker 1: can anticipate how they'll vote, and you know, so there's
26:59
Speaker 1: you can get an advantage. We almost anything. But that's
27:01
Speaker 1: why I would start with Star Spangled Gamblers and then
27:03
Speaker 1: go to Punch Book, Politico and then whatever that yeah,
27:06
Speaker 1: gets you off. You will never find anybody who's more
27:09
Speaker 1: appreciative of shameless plugs and thoughtful uh inline synergistic plugs
27:16
Speaker 1: than me. That was very well done. But I gotta
27:18
Speaker 1: tell you, the whole thing is fascinating, and we talked
27:19
Speaker 1: about all the time, and it's become something that we
27:21
Speaker 1: cover a lot of action So, Alex Keeney of the
27:25
Speaker 1: Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, I'm very glad you came on
27:29
Speaker 1: to fill us in on all of this. It's only
27:33
Speaker 1: going to get more interesting with the mid terms coming up,
27:36
Speaker 1: and then you know, obviously in who will be running
27:41
Speaker 1: for president? And will it be Joe Biden, will it
27:44
Speaker 1: be Donald Trump? Will be round to Santis mayor Pete?
27:47
Speaker 1: Who knows? Before we leave? Before we leave, is there
27:52
Speaker 1: one good bet that we should go on to predict
27:55
Speaker 1: it and make right now? The San Jose. I think
28:00
Speaker 1: there's some dumb song about San Jose which was to
28:02
Speaker 1: play do you know the way that's almost like new
28:11
Speaker 1: to team me up to sing? Yeah, all right, I'll
28:14
Speaker 1: give you one d gen pick, and I'll give you
28:17
Speaker 1: one like really boring easy money pick. All right, d
28:20
Speaker 1: gen pick. I will either exit this is the biggest
28:22
Speaker 1: genius you've ever had or the biggest idiot. I think
28:25
Speaker 1: the Senate is going to pass a gun control bill
28:27
Speaker 1: with a lot of Republican votes. Okay, underdog pick you.
28:30
Speaker 1: It's about a you know, three x multiple if you
28:33
Speaker 1: hit that right. So I am I am bigly to
28:36
Speaker 1: use the former president s bigly on a gun control
28:38
Speaker 1: bill passing, and I might have some meg on my
28:40
Speaker 1: face if you know the obvious or the more likely
28:43
Speaker 1: thing happens, which it doesn't. Second, do you remember when
28:45
Speaker 1: Congress passed a like a changing or ending daylight savings bill?
28:49
Speaker 1: Do you remember that weird day on Twitter? I'm taking
28:52
Speaker 1: eight cent shares on Congress, not on the eve of
28:55
Speaker 1: an election, eliminating daylight savings. I just don't think anyone
28:59
Speaker 1: wants to deal with thought. I think that's an easy beat.
29:01
Speaker 1: I'm taking eighty cent shares on to daylight savings time
29:04
Speaker 1: remaining as it is. I like it. I like it,
29:07
Speaker 1: Gun Gun build a pass daylight savings remaining as it is.
29:11
Speaker 1: Alex Keeney Star Spangled Gamblers Podcast. This is fantastic. I
29:16
Speaker 1: love it. This is right up our alley. Thanks for
29:19
Speaker 1: coming on the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
29:24
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman for my bff Simon Hunter for
29:27
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple podcast, from Spotify
29:31
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe, leave us
29:34
Speaker 1: a five star reviews, say whatever you want and the feedback.
29:37
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you,