Latest / The Fourcast / Is Trump sacrificing Ukraine to Putin?

Transcript

Is Trump sacrificing Ukraine to Putin? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:01
I'm Christian guru Murphy. So Donald Trump is freezing
0:04
American military aid to Ukraine.
0:07
It's a massive shock and it's caused ructions all over Europe
0:10
and in Ukraine. While Zelensky was busy trying
0:13
to thank America and get things back on track.
0:16
All the while we wonder what Russia is making of this and
0:19
what they might want in any kind of negotiation.
0:23
To discuss all of that, the doyenne of CNN news and world
0:27
political interviewing, Christiane Amanpour and the
0:30
honorary professor at UCL, an expert in modern Russia, Mark
0:34
Galliotti. So Christian, first of all, I
0:37
mean, here we have Europe desperately trying to keep the
0:40
ship sailing smoothly, drag Ukraine back into a negotiation
0:45
with the United States. Zelensky's out there saying
0:48
thank you, thank you every other minute.
0:51
And then Donald Trump just, you know, puts the boot down even
0:55
harder. Yeah, I really think we ought to
0:58
sort of try to figure out what his negotiating and deal making
1:02
strategy is. Look, this is a continuation of
1:05
what JD Vance started at the Munich Security Conference and
1:08
that he and Trump have doubled down on in the intervening 2
1:13
weeks, essentially wanting a quick deal with Russia at the
1:18
first freezing out Ukraine and Europe, then, you know, clearly
1:22
knowing that they had to be at the table, but in the interim
1:25
has been constantly delegitimizing Ukraine.
1:28
And now the final blow is to suspend actual aid.
1:33
So the question is why? What is Trump doing?
1:37
If you say that he's a great deal maker, then you have to
1:40
figure out how you make a deal. Clearly you cannot make a deal
1:44
with Putin from a position of weakness unless you're is to
1:49
surrender to Putin or have Ukraine be the sacrificial lamb
1:53
and give it to Putin. The whole point of the NATO
1:57
support for Ukraine, even if they never thought that in this
2:00
instance they could get back Crimea or beat Russia
2:04
necessarily, it was to give Ukraine a strong enough hand to
2:09
be able to bargain at a table eventually.
2:12
Now the Trump administration is basically flipping the script on
2:16
its head, saying that Ukraine doesn't want peace deliberately,
2:20
it appears to me, misrepresenting what Zelensky
2:24
has been saying, trying to tell the world that he says he
2:26
doesn't want a ceasefire, he doesn't want peace.
2:29
This is not true. I've covered Zelensky and I've
2:31
covered this story since the beginning.
2:34
Of course they want peace, but they want it in a just
2:38
honourable fashion, and they want it with a backstop.
2:41
They want it with a security guarantee.
2:43
And this is what all this is about.
2:45
So you have to ask yourself, peace through strength is what
2:49
Trump has been, you know, declaiming.
2:53
But peace through strength is not selling your ally down the
2:58
river and weakening your ally. That gives strength to the
3:02
adversary. So now, and maybe Mark knows
3:05
much more about this, the adversary is being given, you
3:10
know, soccer by the United States.
3:13
Putin is hearing everything he wants from the United States.
3:17
And even Dmitry Peskov, his spokesman this week, said, you
3:21
know, this new administration's foreign policy is changing in
3:24
ways that fit our vision. I'm kind of paraphrasing, but
3:27
that's what he said. Yes, I mean, Mark, if the
3:31
American position is that Russia already holds all the cards in
3:35
their terms, why would America feel the need to give them even
3:40
more? I think because you have to
3:42
realise that although we might well disagree with this, as far
3:45
as Putin is concerned, precisely because his forces are, albeit
3:48
at terrible cost, continuing to advance, there is a sense that
3:52
it is a concession for him to even entertain the notion of
3:56
stopping his continued advance. That is his concession.
4:00
But at the same time, I mean, there is also a fundamental
4:02
point here that actually Trump and Putin share a certain sense
4:08
of the world. And that is that there are a
4:10
handful of countries which are decision makers.
4:13
And then the rest, the the lot of the rest of the world is
4:16
essentially just simply to be told what to do by whoever
4:20
happens to be your your patron. And I think it's very clear from
4:23
Trump's point of view that, you know, he thinks that precisely
4:26
as as these great powers, it will be Russia and the United
4:30
States that will decide Ukraine's fate.
4:32
And Ukraine is a vassal that does not know its place.
4:36
And so I think that's why we have this this continued
4:40
onslaught against Zelensky and indeed Ukraine.
4:43
It is to basically tell them, look, you shut up.
4:46
We have bought and paid you, paid for you with all our aid.
4:50
And therefore we will make a deal.
4:52
We may welcome back to you at a later point and make sure that
4:55
all the various elements you can contribute to.
4:58
But nonetheless, bottom line is you do what you're told.
5:03
And I think from from the Russians point of view, on the
5:05
one hand, they clearly appreciate that.
5:07
I mean this, this is Christmas after all, for them in terms of
5:10
all the advantages that they're getting.
5:12
And you're simply watching the collapse of the unity of the
5:16
Western alliance. But what's really striking is
5:19
the degree to which there is also that note of caution
5:22
because what Trump giveth, Trump can taketh away, though they too
5:26
are now living in Trump world. And there's that sense of Trump
5:29
could easily turn and who knows what can happen.
5:32
They they don't like not being able to predict things.
5:34
It is not just Ukraine, though, that is being told do what you
5:37
are told. It is the rest of the world.
5:40
It's Europe as well. I mean, if you look at JD
5:42
Vance's interview with Hannity last night, he again says Donald
5:48
Trump's the only guy with a plan.
5:50
He's the only guy with a strategy and this idea of a
5:52
minerals deal and American workers digging minerals out of
5:56
the ground in Ukraine is way better security guarantee than
6:00
20,000 troops from some random country that has not fought a
6:04
war in 30 or 40 years that's caused massive offence in
6:08
Britain and France this morning. Christiane.
6:10
I mean, obviously Trump has his supporters and his army behind
6:14
him, but but does the whole of America buy into this?
6:17
No. And if you take the latest
6:19
polls, the majority of Americans believe that Putin is the bad
6:24
guy in this is that Ukraine is the victim.
6:27
Clearly there is a sense of war fatigue.
6:29
But don't forget, Americans are not fighting a war.
6:32
Ukrainians are fighting a war. And they are, you know, being
6:35
given and actually sold. As you all know, a lot of the
6:38
money that goes to Ukraine is then plowed back into the
6:42
American defense industry to buy weapons.
6:44
What they're giving to Ukraine is all of the NATO countries, as
6:49
was explained to me this week, again, is pretty much old stocks
6:53
that they then are able to give and they then they're able to
6:55
replenish. It's a very, you know,
6:58
traditional way of helping an ally.
7:00
And remember, the allies said for years, we will do this quote
7:04
on quote for as long as it takes.
7:06
I think there's several issues here.
7:08
First and foremost, Russia is, as you all know, a much bigger,
7:12
much stronger military than Ukraine's in terms of people who
7:16
fight and in terms of its, its equipment and its military.
7:20
It's still it's still not winning.
7:22
It's making only incremental gains over the last 24 months or
7:26
12 months throughout 2024, made only incremental gains.
7:31
And this is with, if you remember this time last year,
7:34
President Trump, well, campaigner Trump had his MAGA
7:39
allies in Congress stop any aid going to Ukraine.
7:44
It took about seven months before they unblocked it and
7:47
Ukraine had to keep fighting on. And I spoke in, in in Ukraine on
7:51
the front lines with the commanding general, General
7:54
Sirsky, commander of all the Armed Services, who said, yeah,
7:57
this cost us lives and a bit of territory and it's really bad,
8:01
but we still, we still did it. And so I think the notion that
8:06
Russia is winning and Russia has all the cards is not entirely
8:10
accurate. And I think the idea that
8:12
Ukraine is going to suddenly give up, as hard as this might
8:16
be, is potentially wishful thinking.
8:19
And I think, you know, finally, I'd say has one who's actually
8:22
covered the United States and Britain actually at war over the
8:27
last 30-40 years. Just go back to the second Iraq
8:31
war of 2003. Britain was on the on the ground
8:34
with with the United States. So for JD Vance to say that
8:39
about an ally, Keir Starmer apparently had a good reception
8:43
from President Trump. You have to ask yourself what is
8:47
going on because none of it makes any sense other than what
8:51
Mark has just said, that they want to go back to some late
8:53
19th century, early 20th century division of great powers and,
8:58
you know, including China, and divide the world up.
9:01
But that is so yesterday. It's so last century.
9:05
I mean, JD Vance has also denied that he meant Britain and
9:08
France, but hasn't said who he who he maybe did mean.
9:12
How can you deny when only Britain and France have actually
9:15
put up, you know, the the, the notion of troops?
9:19
No, they keep sticking, taking their foot in their mouth and
9:22
then having to pull it out. The real issue though, is for
9:25
Trump, it appears politics is personal.
9:28
Look what he's doing with his allies, Canada and Mexico, you
9:32
know, and maybe soon the EU with tariffs, you know, and his
9:36
adversary, China. But why would the allies?
9:37
Why? And I think that he's this
9:40
personal spat and animosity between Trump and Zelensky,
9:45
which goes back to the famous phone call, to the famous moment
9:48
that led to Trump's impeachment. You can't help but wonder when
9:53
American commentators say, you know, politics is personal for
9:57
Trump. And sadly, right now, it's over
9:59
a war that is existential not just for Ukraine, but for all of
10:03
us. Mark, what, what is the actual
10:05
effect, though, of an American freeze on aid if it continues?
10:09
I mean, people are saying Ukraine can carry on from
10:12
perhaps a couple of months. Is that effectively what he's
10:15
done? He's limited the war now to a
10:18
couple of months time and and at that point, Ukraine has to stop.
10:22
No, no. I mean, we're talking about in a
10:24
couple of months time, that's when you'll begin to feel the
10:27
appreciable impact thereof. Remember, this aid doesn't come
10:30
as a single sort of stream as if from a tap.
10:33
It's always been sort of by in dribs and drabs, a shipment that
10:36
comes and then there's a pause and so forth.
10:37
So the Ukraine's are used to this and you know, we don't
10:42
really know what their stockpiles are like, but
10:45
nonetheless, you know, they, they, they will clearly be able
10:47
to fill the gaps for a while. The question is precisely what
10:50
happens if it goes longer? Really by the time you're
10:53
getting to say between four and six months, that's when you're
10:57
likely to really feel it. And we'll begin to feel it not
10:59
just in the obvious terms of, you know, a lack of particular
11:02
missiles or whatever, but also in the sort of smaller and
11:06
apparently trivial but absolutely crucial elements like
11:08
spare parts. The Ukrainians will will fight
11:10
as long as they feel they can fight, but nonetheless, their
11:13
capacity to do so, particularly in terms of long range fires,
11:16
which they've been using things like the A Tacoms and so forth,
11:19
long range missiles to disrupt the Russian offensive capacity
11:24
by hitting, you know, ammunition dumps.
11:26
And they're like a long way behind the lines.
11:28
That kind of thing will will all you know begin to slow down.
11:32
So how, how will Russia view this?
11:35
I mean, given how fast Donald Trump tends to announce things
11:38
and can flip and do it 180° turn, will they be looking at
11:42
this and thinking this actually has an impact on the battlefield
11:45
or, or is it just a well, that's what he said today.
11:49
Well, I mean, obviously at the moment it's hard for them not to
11:51
feel pretty exultant. What I find really interesting
11:54
is we're already beginning to see a a coded debate take place
11:58
within the Russian elite, largely being played out within
12:01
the media. Because after all, you know,
12:03
Putin has this infamously narrow circle of people he actually
12:06
talks to and listens to. So in some ways, if you want to
12:09
get through to the boss, there's no point writing a memo and
12:12
hoping it'll go through 15 different bureaucratic levels
12:14
and end up on his desk. You need to find other ways of
12:17
attracting his attention. And one of the classic ones is
12:18
precisely in in the media. And so we're already seeing some
12:22
elements, you know, the more technocratic types who are
12:25
actually saying, think of how great it would be if we could
12:28
reach an early peace, if we could basically in some way
12:31
stabilize the situation. Sure, in control of the occupied
12:34
territories. But you know, with with for
12:36
example, at least some degree of sanctions relief, then we could
12:39
begin to alleviate the long term damage, which is absolutely
12:42
crucial. The scarring that is taking
12:45
place to the Russian politics, its economy and indeed its
12:48
demographics must remember we're all talking about almost a
12:52
million dead and wounded already.
12:54
And so so they're basically talking up the advantage of
12:56
seizing this as an opportunity for some kind of a peace.
13:00
Conversely, you've got the nationalists groups and things
13:02
like, say, Sagrad TV station run by a sort of Orthodox
13:06
nationalist oligarch who are saying quite the opposite, who
13:09
say, actually, you know, we will not be forgiven by in history if
13:13
we don't take this opportunity to sort of to resolve this issue
13:16
once for once and for all. Which is their coded way of
13:19
saying not just fix the conflict as it is now and call it a
13:23
victory, but instead advance and essentially try to impose again,
13:27
some sort of sphere of influence control over Ukraine as a whole.
13:32
So, you know, it's interesting that the, you know, the Russians
13:34
see this as certainly historic opportunity.
13:37
It's one that they're cautious about, but it seems to be 1
13:41
where they don't think there is a clear intent from the top.
13:45
And that's true because Putin in some ways much like Trump,
13:48
again, another similarity, Putin likes instead of sort of having
13:52
some kind of clear long term strategy with a set of
13:54
milestones and such like, he likes creating dynamic complex
13:58
situations which create all sorts of different opportunities
14:01
from which he can pick and choose.
14:03
And the one he picks today may not be the one he will be
14:05
picking tomorrow. So I think, you know, from
14:08
Putin's point of view, he probably is also sitting there
14:11
and trying to work out what is the sort of the the best
14:15
opportunity for him now. Christian what We don't know,
14:17
because curiously, this debate has been about, first of all,
14:20
stopping the war and then about security guarantees.
14:23
But what we haven't heard from the Americans is a vision of,
14:27
you know, where you stop the war, where the borders are, what
14:30
Ukrainian sovereignty actually means.
14:32
Is it the whole of Ukraine? Is it Ukraine 2014, Ukraine
14:35
2022, or Ukraine as it is now? I mean, what do you think the
14:40
the administration thinks Russia will settle for?
14:44
I don't know. And I think that is a huge
14:46
question because otherwise we're just talking in fantasyland
14:49
here. None of us know what is the
14:51
substance of what President Trump has been speaking to
14:54
President Putin about. Have they talked substance?
14:57
What is the deal? We don't know.
14:59
What we do know is what Putin has been saying since the
15:02
beginning and all his, you know, all his acolytes that they, they
15:05
have maximalist goals. Even last week or two weeks ago,
15:08
he said X of all the territories that we have and beyond a non
15:13
negotiable, as you know, they want even the territory they
15:16
haven't yet conquered or occupied some of it.
15:19
So, so that we know that they keep saying obviously no NATO,
15:23
that's their line. But they also say no militarized
15:26
Ukraine. So what?
15:27
Ukraine is meant to give up its own army, its own military.
15:30
They want no sovereign and independent and democratic
15:33
Ukraine. They want a vassal state, as you
15:35
all discussed at the beginning, because Putin does not want an
15:39
independent, sovereign, democratic, westward leaning
15:41
Ukraine. That has been his goal from the
15:44
beginning. And I think it's really behooves
15:46
us to remember and cast our minds back to Minsk 1 and Minsk
15:50
2. I just reread the history around
15:53
it to refresh myself. And this was, again, it was an
15:56
attempt by Angela Merkel and I think President Hollande and
16:00
others with Putin and that time President Poroshenko of Ukraine
16:04
to get a quick deal and a ceasefire.
16:08
And they got this deal and they wrote it down and it was Minsk 1
16:11
and all the rest of it. But there was no enforcement.
16:14
And so it collapsed, didn't collapse once.
16:16
It collapsed twice. So there's two cautionary tales
16:19
there. 1, you can't just rush into a deal.
16:22
And I'm just trying to, I'm trying to internalize.
16:25
It's not a good idea to read to try to read Trump's mind.
16:28
But you remember in the campaign, he said I can fix this
16:32
overnight, even before I'm inaugurated.
16:34
Then it was in the 1st 100 days, then it was I don't know what
16:37
what Trump wants is a quick deal and a quick victory.
16:41
But this and that's where that's why he's so mad at Zelensky for
16:45
saying this is going to take a while to figure out.
16:48
Zelensky spoke the truth. All the Europeans say that too.
16:52
It's going to take a while to figure it out.
16:54
And, you know, finally, it's not going to work without a security
16:59
guarantee. We've actually seen that on that
17:01
territory after the 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine.
17:06
So all of this is laid out for us.
17:08
We know the picture. And the notion that Ukraine or
17:12
Europe is going to take Trump's word that that, I don't know, a
17:16
phone call with Putin is a guarantee.
17:19
They're not going to do it. Europe won't do it even now as
17:22
they're stepping up. At least this is what they're
17:24
telling us on the air paying the money.
17:27
You're trying to come up with a peace plan with Ukraine at the
17:29
table wanting to take it to the US.
17:32
They can't do it without AUS backstop.
17:34
That means US air power over top over, you know, like a no fly
17:39
zone and and watching from the from above US air defences and
17:44
intelligence. That, at the very least, is what
17:48
they need from the United States.
17:49
And unless Trump ET al is willing to give that, I don't
17:53
think there's a peace deal to be had.
17:55
And nobody can force anybody into it.
17:57
And then you have to see whether Russia can do what it couldn't
18:00
do in in February of 2022, which is conquer the whole place.
18:05
I mean, Mark, when when we talk about Trump now, we increasingly
18:08
say don't take him literally, take him seriously.
18:10
Given all the things that Cristiano's just said, Russia
18:13
has made explicit about its negotiating position, do we take
18:18
them literally? No, but we have to realize that
18:20
they are operating within a very sort of classic Russian and then
18:24
Soviet model of negotiation, which is absolutely, you start
18:29
with obscenely high demands that you present as being
18:32
unnegotiable, the absolute minimum, because you anticipate
18:36
that you are going to be haggled down and you assume that you're
18:40
less ruthless. Antagonists in the West will
18:45
naturally, because of sort of encoded in their DNA, want to
18:48
make a deal. And so you will be haggled down
18:50
from obscene to merely profane in terms of how how much more
18:54
you you get than than you should.
18:56
Because if we look, for example, and take one of the most
19:00
ridiculous elements of what the Russians said they were fighting
19:03
this war was for was the denazification of Ukraine.
19:06
I mean, putting aside just how ludicrous that is, we see that
19:10
this is one thing that seems to fade in and out as it is
19:14
convenient. You know, the Russians are
19:16
deeply cynical. And if they had to abandon an
19:20
ally or whatever, they would. Because we have to realise that
19:23
the Russians are also hinting that there is room for lateral
19:26
negotiation, that maybe their roles in Africa might be up for
19:31
grabs. Maybe their relationship with
19:33
North Korea will no longer need to be quite so close if they're
19:36
not fighting a war. So I think, you know, again, the
19:38
Russians are deeply opportunist. They will not give any gifts
19:42
away. They will push for everything
19:45
they can possibly get. But I don't think we can assume
19:48
that they're actually saying we will continue fighting for the
19:51
last soldier, even if it means destabilizing the country, just
19:55
because of these formally stated requirements.
19:58
But it is the is the Russian mindset at the moment that
20:00
stopping the war where it is and freezing the lines where they
20:04
are is a big compromise or, or is it a relief?
20:08
Well, I mean, again, I think for most Russians, frankly, it would
20:10
be a relief. We already know that more than
20:12
70% of them when polled said they would happily accept any
20:15
kind of peace deal that Putin is willing to sign for Putin
20:19
himself. I mean, again, unfortunately,
20:21
crawling into the deep dark recesses of his mind is in many
20:24
ways as unsatisfying and, and, and, and useless as, as trying
20:28
to to Trump read as well. But I mean, I think one thing we
20:31
can say is Putin will be able to spin keeping what he's got now
20:38
as a victory because he has absolute control over the media
20:41
space in Russia. And because so many Russians
20:44
will be just so relieved to think that this is not going to
20:47
then also devour their husband, their brother, their son, their
20:51
father or or whatever there. There is a real fear about where
20:54
where this may may go. So in some ways it'll be a case
20:57
of everyone having an incentive to talk about how
21:02
extraordinarily magnificent the emperor's new clothes are.
21:05
So I mean, I think, you know, we have to realise that, that, that
21:07
Trump, sorry, there you go. There's a Freudian slip there.
21:09
Putin is essentially interested in himself in his survival.
21:15
And to that end, if he feels that his his survival will be
21:18
imperiled by not taking this opportunity and thinking, well,
21:21
in that case, this war may drag on for years and, and, and, and
21:24
completely crash the economy, then he has an incentive.
21:28
But of course, so much of that therefore depends on just how
21:33
plausible a deterrent the thought of the war continuing.
21:37
If it looks like anyway, the Ukrainians are being hung out to
21:40
dry, then you probably don't feel you have to worry about
21:42
this war going on for a couple of years.
21:44
If the Europeans don't actually manage to convert yet another
21:49
round of rousing statements of support for Ukraine into real
21:54
moves that have an impact on the battlefield, then Putin won't be
21:58
deterred. So I mean, I think it's very
22:00
much in that to use a cliche, all to play for territory.
22:03
How bad would? It be Christiane if Donald Trump
22:05
doesn't get his way for him. I mean in that in that bust up
22:08
in the in the Oval Office, he said do a deal or we're out.
22:12
Well, I mean, they've now frozen the the the lines.
22:15
But I mean, do we get to a point everywhere He can just say OK.
22:19
By the way, premature because all weekend Europe and Ukraine
22:23
have been talking about doing a deal.
22:25
All weekend, Ukraine's President Zelensky has again been, you
22:30
know, expressing his gratitude. The notion that he hasn't been
22:33
grateful is just a farce. Every single time he goes to a
22:37
foreign capital, every time he's invited to a Zoom meeting at the
22:41
EU or NATO or some defense council or a national
22:44
parliament, he first says thank you for your for your help.
22:48
So this is all a made-up, personal, antagonistic thing
22:52
that's getting in the way of the strategic demands here.
22:55
And what we haven't talked about is the big picture, really.
22:58
And the big picture, according to so many of the American
23:01
commentators, this is the end of Pax Americana.
23:04
This is a perversion of American foreign policy.
23:07
What happened in the White House, The Oval on Friday was,
23:11
according to a conservative commentator, Brett Stevens, a
23:15
day of American infamy. He said if Imagine if Roosevelt
23:19
had told Churchill at the height of the war or when he was most
23:23
desperate to negotiate on any terms with Hitler, at the same
23:27
time demanding his coal reserves.
23:29
Imagine what that would look like and what that would be.
23:32
So and and one other cautionary tale, a deal, the only actual
23:38
major deal that Donald Trump has made in one point O is the
23:42
Afghanistan deal. That was his.
23:44
It was massively, awfully executed by the Biden
23:47
administration, but that was his deal.
23:50
And essentially his deal making consisted of having the Taliban
23:55
at the table, essentially freezing out the legitimate
23:58
elected government, no matter what you think about them, the
24:01
American and Western backed government of Afghanistan.
24:05
And he trusted the Taliban, he said, to keep women's rights and
24:10
all the things that people want, human rights, you know, going.
24:14
And he handed Afghanistan back to the Taliban on a silver
24:18
platter. That is what Ukraine is worried
24:20
about. That is what Europe is worried
24:22
about. And the question, why do they
24:24
still keep doubling down, attacking not just Ukraine and
24:28
the president, but Europe? What is the strategic relevance
24:32
of that other than, I mean, if there is a plan, is it to
24:36
destroy Europe? Why do they keep doing this?
24:39
Having said Europe, it's your you, you have to step up.
24:42
Why then denigrate them and belittle them?
24:45
Well, it's quite clear he he really doesn't like the European
24:48
Union and would like to see it weakened.
24:50
I mean, isn't the answer to the question.
24:52
It's not about the European Union, this is about Britain.
24:55
No, of course, of course. But as an institution, he hates
24:58
the European Union as well, doesn't he?
25:00
So I mean, isn't the answer to your question that the future is
25:03
America first that that he's delivering on his election
25:07
platform of saying the future is transactional and it's about
25:10
America first? Fine.
25:11
So pull back, America, stay behind your fortress, but don't
25:16
denigrate everybody else who now are left to pick up the pieces.
25:19
This is really serious because it puts democracy right in his
25:23
crosshairs. And it makes apparently
25:26
authoritarianism and dictatorship and all the rest of
25:29
it the preferred option. There are serious commentators
25:34
and analysts in the United States talking about how the
25:37
Trump administration, how Trump and Vance are moving America
25:41
away from this 75 year post World War 2 American LED world
25:48
order and all the way towards what Mark was saying.
25:51
And that is dividing the world and and having your own spheres
25:55
of influence. Only that time has passed.
25:58
Yes, I mean, well, I mean within that I mean the, the time has
26:01
passed it seems where America felt that it's role was to
26:04
defend democracy. And that obviously makes you
26:07
question whether Trump really is a is a Democrat.
26:10
This administration, the Trump administration, the rest of
26:12
America, you know, certainly the polls suggest that democracy is
26:17
their preferred option and that they believe in America's
26:21
historic promise, America's values, what America's, you
26:25
know, sold and given to the world for all these, all these
26:29
years. And, and I don't think Americans
26:32
are ready to give up on the democratic process.
26:35
And as I said, most of them believe in the latest poll that
26:38
Putin is, you know, is the bad guy here.
26:41
Mark, I mean, you mentioned Russia's other, you know, world
26:45
strategies and alliances, Russia and it's new Africa strategy,
26:50
Russia and North Korea. I mean, does it actually have
26:53
the resource and the commitments to follow these things through,
26:57
or are they and and and and compete with China in any
26:59
meaningful way? Or are these mirages?
27:04
No, I mean, this is very much guerrilla geopolitics.
27:06
It's being done on the cheap. You know, if one looks at Africa
27:08
for example, back in Soviet times the Soviet Union spent
27:13
huge amounts of aid and support to basically try and buy itself,
27:16
influence and allies. These days the Russians in
27:20
Africa actually have to be self financing.
27:23
Indeed. Ideally they're meant to be
27:24
making a profit for for Moscow. And I think that's the the
27:29
general pattern. You know, Russia is not in a
27:31
position it is not a great power.
27:32
I mean, the the usual sort of snarky comparisons of a GDP the
27:36
size of spades and so forth don't really apply because it
27:41
isn't like that. And, and, and the Russians are
27:43
are basically buying from themselves most of their weapons
27:46
and everything else. But nonetheless, it is clear
27:48
that that's not the case. And you mentioned China.
27:50
I mean, that is one of the key issues and it's a fascinating
27:53
generational divide within the Russian elite.
27:56
As far as Putin is concerned, this struggle in Ukraine.
27:58
And remember, he regards himself as being in effect at war with
28:02
the West as a whole. Ukraine.
28:04
This is a proxy war with NATO, with the West, and it's just one
28:10
flank of that. This is the war for him that is
28:13
going to determine not only his political survival, but also his
28:16
political legacy. And in effect, he's willing to
28:19
do whatever it takes. And if it means, in effect,
28:21
becoming more and more of a vassal of China's, then so be
28:24
it. The next political generation
28:26
down, the ones who are sort of waiting with some impatience for
28:29
when they get to take over, they're much more concerned
28:32
about the long term and they're actually much more concerned
28:35
about precisely Russia's relationship with with China.
28:38
But again, at the moment they're not being listened to.
28:41
So I think what we actually see is Putin is a kind of a as a
28:44
transitional figure, the last of the true homos of Yetekus, who
28:48
is so consumed with his desire to make Russia great again, to
28:52
once again bring it to the the centre of the world stage that
28:56
he's mortgaging or indeed destroying Russia's long term
29:01
prospects in order to meet the needs of today.
29:05
And. Just on the China point, I mean,
29:06
that's the one thing he hasn't been very vocal about since
29:09
taking office. Is that next?
29:12
He's thrown tariffs at China already and they have
29:15
retaliated. So that could be really serious
29:19
and it could affect the entire global economy.
29:21
Another issue is he's cut USAIDUSAID was America's arm of
29:27
soft power and that was gave America the ability to show
29:31
itself as a human face to all those who might have gravitated
29:37
towards Russia or others, right. It was created by President
29:40
Kennedy in 1961. He had read a book called The
29:44
Ugly American how people around the world viewed America as just
29:47
a rapacious imperialist, you know, conquering power.
29:53
And he wanted to show something different, not just for
29:56
altruistic reasons, but also to pull them away from, at that
29:59
time, the Soviet Union. That's gone.
30:01
So suddenly, the ugly American that Kennedy feared is back.
30:06
And we don't know where that's going to lead and who it will
30:09
benefit after. After Munich, your former Prime
30:13
Minister John Major took the extraordinary step of coming
30:16
back out onto the media and saying what we just heard in
30:19
Munich from JD Vance is going to make Putin and Xi Jinping dance
30:25
with joy. And it signifies a very
30:28
dangerous realignment of America vis a vis the transatlantic
30:33
alliance and, and, and world politics.
30:35
And he was absolutely right. He said it more than two weeks
30:37
ago. And this week this is what we
30:41
are reporting on because that's all happened.
30:43
We don't know whether he'll pull it back Trump.
30:45
But right now, that's exactly where we are, a very dangerous
30:48
realignment for those of us who believe in democracy, human
30:52
rights, sovereignty, the rules of the road.
30:55
Thou shalt not invade thy neighbor.
30:57
It's a very, very new place that we're in right now.
31:01
Christian Mark, that was a great conversation.
31:03
Thank you both very much indeed. Thank you.