Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Energy Bills, Crypto Custody, Farm Aid (October 5, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Energy Bills, Crypto Custody, Farm Aid (October 5, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 2: Podcasts. Radio. News.
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  Speaker 1: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance
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  Speaker 1: of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence
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  Speaker 1: Senior Policy Analyst and friend of the show Nathan Dean
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  Speaker 1: shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capitals.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from
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  Speaker 1: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's
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  Speaker 1: Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning and good afternoon, everybody.
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  Speaker 3: My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior policy analyst
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  Speaker 3: at Bloomberg Intelligence here in the Washington, D.C.
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  Speaker 2: Bureau. I want to say welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you for listening, and we want to say thank
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  Speaker 3: you to those of you who are coming to us
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  Speaker 3: via the Balance of Power podcast. We always appreciate you listening.
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  Speaker 3: Today is October 5th, 10.02 a.m. I put my Halloween
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  Speaker 3: decorations up over the weekend. My kids came out and said,
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  Speaker 3: we'll help, and then subsequently they disappeared after the first skeleton,
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  Speaker 3: but anyway... It's the thick of it, and let's get
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  Speaker 3: right into it. So just a brief update on the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: midterm elections. I've been tracking the policy market, I'm sorry,
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  Speaker 3: the Kaoshi prediction markets.
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  Speaker 2: No real change in the House. The House is still
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  Speaker 2: at a 92%, but....
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  Speaker 3: The message on the Democratic side for the Senate is
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  Speaker 3: getting stronger by the day. Last week, we were at
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  Speaker 3: a 62%. This week, we're at a 65% chance the
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  Speaker 3: Democrats take the House.
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  Speaker 2: Over the Cook.
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  Speaker 3: Political Report, they actually increased the number of toss-up seats
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  Speaker 3: from 18 to 22. Most of those are GOP seats
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  Speaker 3: that have gone into the toss-up column. There are two Democrats, though,
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  Speaker 3: that moved over into the toss-up column just because of
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  Speaker 3: some stronger polling on the Republican side here. But the
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  Speaker 3: story is that we are continuing to look like the
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  Speaker 3: Democrats are going to take the House. Cook Political Report
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  Speaker 3: thinks that the Democrats will take the House by about
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  Speaker 3: 15 seats, somewhere between 10 to 15. And then the
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  Speaker 3: Republican on the Senate side, the story is essentially just
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  Speaker 3: still a toss up. But if the election was held today,
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  Speaker 3: according to the Cook Political Report, the Democrats would take
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  Speaker 3: the Senate.
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  Speaker 2: Speaking of the Senate, the Senate is gone. We have
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  Speaker 2: no more.
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  Speaker 3: Legislation until after the election. So we are done until
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  Speaker 3: the lame duck session. But I wanted to just talk
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  Speaker 3: about two things that the Senate did before they left.
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  Speaker 3: First is we saw a bipartisan agreement on a text
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  Speaker 3: for an energy permitting bill. Now, this bill is going
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  Speaker 3: to come up for the vote during the lame duck session,
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  Speaker 3: so put this on your calendar. Essentially, what it's doing
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  Speaker 3: here is to try and reduce the amount of time
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  Speaker 3: that energy infrastructure needs for permitting in the United States. Now,
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  Speaker 3: this could be shortened federal environmental reviews, could be shortened
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  Speaker 3: litigation windows, could be permits harder to revoke, could also
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  Speaker 3: be some language in there about making data centers pay
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  Speaker 3: for the transmission costs. So if you are in the
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  Speaker 3: energy sector, that is one bill that we are probably
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  Speaker 3: going to be looking at in the lame duck session.
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  Speaker 2: So keep that in mind.
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  Speaker 3: The Senate also passed the NCAA bill, the Federal Reserve,
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  Speaker 3: the federal framework for college sports. That one has gone
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  Speaker 3: to the House. There seems to be a little bit
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  Speaker 3: more of a hiccup on the House. We'll see what
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  Speaker 3: happens in the lame duck period. My colleague Andrew Silverman
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  Speaker 3: is covering the NCAA case, and then my colleague Justin
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  Speaker 3: Terese is covering the energy sector. So definitely let us
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  Speaker 3: know if you want to have a greater chat about that.
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  Speaker 3: um also on the senate side is they are weighing
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  Speaker 3: a debt ceiling deal now this is only if you're
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  Speaker 3: on the fixed income side you obviously know the debt
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  Speaker 3: ceiling this is the agreement that congress has to go
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  Speaker 3: out there and lift the debt limit so that we
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  Speaker 3: can actually go forth and actually pay for obligations the
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  Speaker 3: united states has already agreed to do so it comes
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  Speaker 3: up every few years and it's actually a very i
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  Speaker 3: think most fixed income traders think it's very just a
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  Speaker 3: quote our rate strategist Ira Jersey, calls it a stupid thing.
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  Speaker 3: That's official. He's actually said that. But the idea here
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  Speaker 3: is that if the debt ceiling does come up in
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  Speaker 3: President Trump's second half in his second term, the Democrats
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  Speaker 3: will most likely use that as leverage to achieve policy goals.
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  Speaker 3: So there's this thought that when we get back on
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  Speaker 3: the lame duck side, the Republicans will use reconciliation. Again,
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  Speaker 3: the bill that allows you to bypass the filibuster to
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  Speaker 3: kick the debt ceiling limit beyond President Trump's term. So
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  Speaker 3: you kick it into 2028 or 2020. I'm sorry, you
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  Speaker 3: kick it into 2029. You just say, OK, we're going
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  Speaker 3: to increase the debt ceiling by. X billions of dollars.
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  Speaker 3: So go from there. If this reconciliation play comes out
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  Speaker 3: and it's solely designed for the debt ceiling, I could
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  Speaker 3: see it passing. But Senator Lummis, who's the retiring senator
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  Speaker 3: from Wyoming, came out and said, look, I'm not going
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  Speaker 3: to vote for this when we're not going to cut
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  Speaker 3: anything on the flip side.
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  Speaker 2: And so that's going to be a challenge. But I
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  Speaker 2: just wanted to give you.
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  Speaker 3: A heads up that there is some talk about potentially
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  Speaker 3: doing this. We're going to have more thoughts in the
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  Speaker 3: terminal over the next couple of weeks, but we've got time.
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  Speaker 3: So just wanted to make sure that you were aware
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  Speaker 3: of that. Let's move a little bit from the congressional side.
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  Speaker 3: Let's go down to the White House. Later today, President
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  Speaker 3: Trump is going to make an announcement on Farm Aid.
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  Speaker 3: Secretary Rawlins came out and said, expect for an announcement
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  Speaker 3: later today. We actually think it's going to be tied
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  Speaker 3: to the price of diesel. Now, you know, the diesel
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  Speaker 3: export ban, we talked about this last week. It doesn't
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  Speaker 3: seem like an export ban is ultimately going to take place.
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  Speaker 3: We've seen enough people from the White House insinuate that
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  Speaker 3: they do believe that would ultimately raise prices in the
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  Speaker 3: long run. Short term, it'd actually be beneficial to those
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  Speaker 3: of us on the East Coast and those of you
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  Speaker 3: on the West Coast. But in the long run, it'd
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  Speaker 3: be somewhat harmful. But I would be somewhat surprised if
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  Speaker 3: today's statement was actually anything that was market moving. I
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  Speaker 3: think it's going to be most likely. hey, we're going
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  Speaker 3: to work with the states to try and lower prices.
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  Speaker 3: We're going to try and see if the states can
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  Speaker 3: cut some of their taxes. We're going to try and
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  Speaker 3: see if the states can do anything here. So I
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  Speaker 3: think it's going to try and push the issue from
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  Speaker 3: the federal level down to the state level.
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  Speaker 2: But again, we'll see.
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  Speaker 3: That announcement should be this afternoon. So if you're in
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  Speaker 3: that space, definitely stay tuned. And then moving away from
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  Speaker 3: White House, because President Trump's going to be mostly on
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  Speaker 3: the road this week. He's going to Nebraska. He's going
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  Speaker 3: to be campaigning for the midterm election. So he's going
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  Speaker 3: to be mostly on the road this week. But then
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  Speaker 3: going up to the regulatory side, a couple of regulatory
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  Speaker 3: actions that I think are interesting. Last week, the SEC
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  Speaker 3: proposed a new definition of accredited investors. So this is
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  Speaker 3: if you are an investor in private funds. About 12%
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  Speaker 3: of Americans today are considered accredited investors, which means they
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  Speaker 3: have a net worth of at least $ 1 million. Or
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  Speaker 3: on a single level, they bring in $ 200, 000. On a
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  Speaker 3: joint level, they bring in $ 300, 000. And that gives you
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  Speaker 3: the ability to invest in exotic instruments like private funds,
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  Speaker 3: registration funds, private equity, etc. There has been talk over
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  Speaker 3: at the SEC of trying to expand that. A couple
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  Speaker 3: of years ago, they expanded it so that if you
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  Speaker 3: got a Series 8 or a Series... I can't remember
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  Speaker 3: the other ones, but if you had taken in one
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  Speaker 3: of the securities exams, you became an accredited investor. What
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  Speaker 3: the proposal last week does is it essentially says, if
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  Speaker 3: you want to take an exam that FINRA is going
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  Speaker 3: to come up with, and so FINRA doesn't have this
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  Speaker 3: exam yet, but if you want to take an exam
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  Speaker 3: and you want to pass it, two hours, I think
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  Speaker 3: it's 75 questions, multiple choice, etc., If you want to
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  Speaker 3: pass it, then you become an accredited investor. But the
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  Speaker 3: question is, from the alternative asset management point of view,
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  Speaker 3: is how many Americans out there who aren't accredited investors
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  Speaker 3: are actually going to sit down for the exam, take
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  Speaker 3: the exam, and then throw their money into things like
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  Speaker 3: private equity? That's the story that we're not exactly sure
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  Speaker 3: is going to play out. We're going to do a
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  Speaker 3: little bit more research on that, and we're going to
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  Speaker 3: get that onto the terminal.
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  Speaker 2: So that's out there.
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  Speaker 3: The SEC also proposed a new rule on the cryptocurrency
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  Speaker 3: custody portion of it. I don't have a ton of
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  Speaker 3: details on it because I haven't looked at it yet,
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  Speaker 3: but I just want to put it out there. The
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  Speaker 3: one that I just looked at was the CFTC has
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  Speaker 3: a proposal coming out on crypto assets and crypto market structure.
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  Speaker 3: This is currently over at OIRA. This is the Office
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  Speaker 3: of Interregulatory Affairs over at the White House. So expect
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  Speaker 3: this proposal anytime soon. But largely speaking, what the CFTC
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  Speaker 3: is doing here, and this is my interpretation because obviously
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  Speaker 3: this is in public. is my interpretation of what the
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  Speaker 3: CFTC is doing is saying, right, Clarity Act failed.
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  Speaker 2: We didn't see the Clarity Act passed.
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  Speaker 3: And as a result, we are going to do our
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  Speaker 3: own version of clarity by essentially pretending that the Clarity
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  Speaker 3: Act actually exists. Sorry, one second. Somebody's trying to call
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  Speaker 3: me right now. I'm just going to defer that. Um,
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  Speaker 3: so essentially what the CFTC is trying to do is
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  Speaker 3: actually can just pretend that the Clarity Act did exist.
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  Speaker 3: So what it's going to do is it's going to
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  Speaker 3: create a federal framework for cryptocurrencies and for spot markets.
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  Speaker 3: And it will go out to the industry and say, look,
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  Speaker 3: if you want to register, and I'm not going to
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  Speaker 3: say come in and register, because if you're in the
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  Speaker 3: former SEC, Gary Gensler world, obviously that, you know, that may,
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  Speaker 3: you know, that may actually give you somewhat shivers. But,
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  Speaker 3: you know, what's going to happen here is that the
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  Speaker 3: CFTC will say, if you want to have federal oversight,
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  Speaker 3: meaning if you want to have the ability to register
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  Speaker 3: with us and get regulatory approvals and get lower enforcement risk,
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  Speaker 3: come in and talk to us and come in and
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  Speaker 3: actually start following this regulation. And as a result, what
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  Speaker 3: the CFTC is doing here is building up a federal
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  Speaker 3: framework that's and then ultimately will allow the industry to
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  Speaker 3: prevail so that if a future Democratic president, say 2028, 2032, whoever,
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  Speaker 3: and the Clarity Act doesn't pass, wants to come in
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  Speaker 3: and change things, it's going to make it so hard
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  Speaker 3: that the industry's already been cemented. So expect that rulemaking anywhere,
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  Speaker 3: expect that in the.
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  Speaker 2: Next couple of weeks slash months. Just a couple of
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  Speaker 2: other things. Prediction markets.
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  Speaker 3: Lydia Beode over at Bloomberg News is reporting that there
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  Speaker 3: are a couple more prediction markets rules that are in
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  Speaker 3: the works.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, sorry.
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  Speaker 3: I should have said for that CFTC proposal. I'm not
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  Speaker 3: sure if it's an AMPR or an NPR. An AMPR
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  Speaker 3: is an advanced notice proposal. where if it comes out,
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  Speaker 3: it's essentially just going to be like 60 to 100
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  Speaker 3: questions asking the sector to What they think it should
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  Speaker 3: the rule be. If it's an NPR, it's an actual rule.
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  Speaker 3: My guess is that it's an NPR. And so but
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  Speaker 3: if it's an NPR and you see that come out,
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  Speaker 3: just add about six to nine months before you actually
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  Speaker 3: get the finalization.
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  Speaker 2: Sorry, should have mentioned that. So on the.
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  Speaker 3: Prediction market side, Lydia was reporting that CFTC has a
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  Speaker 3: couple more rules out there on the prediction markets.
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  Speaker 2: There is already one out there right now.
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  Speaker 3: But largely speaking, essentially what this is going to do
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  Speaker 3: is codify these prediction markets as swaps. exclude casino-type gambling,
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  Speaker 3: and do nothing for the fact that my colleague Elliot
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  Speaker 3: Stein is covering the litigation cases between the gaming industry
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  Speaker 3: of the states and the prediction markets. Long story short
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  Speaker 3: is that I'll be covering the CFTC rulemakings, but this
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  Speaker 3: is going to the Supreme Court. The idea here is
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  Speaker 3: that are these considered swaps? Should they be under federal jurisdiction?
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  Speaker 3: Should they be under gambling rules? Should they be considered casinos?
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  Speaker 3: This is all going to the Supreme Court. So again,
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  Speaker 3: when you see these rulemakings come out, just remember, call me.
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  Speaker 2: I'll tell you exactly what the rulemaking is going to say.
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  Speaker 3: But ultimately, when it comes to the prediction markets, just
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  Speaker 3: know it's going to the Supreme Court.
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  Speaker 2: That's the case that's ultimately going to matter.
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  Speaker 3: And then finally, just the last thing, we talked a
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  Speaker 3: little bit about stress testing and the bank regulations last week. Well,
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  Speaker 3: the Fed went ahead and finalized it on September 30th.
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  Speaker 3: I said October. The Fed beat me by one day.
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  Speaker 2: So we saw the stress testing volatility and we saw
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  Speaker 2: the stress testing transparency rules come out.
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  Speaker 3: They were finalized. Next up, I still believe, is going
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: to be that regional bank rule. So if you're exposed
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: to the regional bank side, certainly keep an eye out
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: for that. Basel III endgame, we're still hearing the second
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  Speaker 3: or third week of December. Governor Bowman, sorry, Vice Chair Bowman,
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: Mickey Bowman, is actually giving a speech tomorrow. And so
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: it is anticipated in that speech she may give an
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  Speaker 3: updated timing of where.
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  Speaker 2: Those rules are.
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  Speaker 3: So if you're on the bank capital side. Definitely pay
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  Speaker 3: attention to that. I'm also looking to see if Vice
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  Speaker 3: Chair Bowman mentions the liquidity coverage proposal, because that is
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: something that the liquidity coverage ratio is something that the
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: regulators have been floating the idea of amending over the
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  Speaker 3: last couple of weeks slash months. So we're looking for that. Um,
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  Speaker 3: other than that, not a ton of other stuff going
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  Speaker 3: on in Washington. Things are going to calm down from
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  Speaker 3: the legislative side. Uh, I want to say thank you
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  Speaker 3: again for listening. Um, I'm watching the poll right now. Uh,
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: don't take the poll if you've already taken the poll. Uh,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: but this poll is for those of you who want
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: to get an advanced email notification of the agenda, or
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: if you have a Bloomberg terminal, uh, you want to
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: actually receive an IB, but again, if you're already taking it,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: I've got your information logged. You Anyway, that's going to
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: end it for today. As a reminder, I'll be in
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: Europe next week, so I'm not exactly sure if this
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: call is going to happen. If not, look for a
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: cancellation message on Thursday or Friday. And with that being said,
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  Speaker 3: I want to say have a wonderful week. Take care
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  Speaker 3: and we will talk soon.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you. Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Policy Analyst, bringing you the latest installment of his weekly
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Washington Policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: this call live each week, you can email Nathan at
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: ndean at bloomberg.net. That's N-D-E-A-N at bloomberg.net. Come back to
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the podcast later today for the latest edition of Balance
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: of Power.