Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - The Challenge Of Messaging The 2026 Midterms + Can A Moderate Republican Win California’s Governor Race

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Full Episode - The Challenge Of Messaging The 2026 Midterms + Can A Moderate Republican Win California’s Governor Race · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello there,
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  Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. I
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: am the aforementioned title name of said podcast. I'm Chuck Todd.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: We have let me give you a lay of the
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: land of the show. Today. I'm going to talk a
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: little bit about the struggle that I think both parties
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  Speaker 1: are going to have trying to figure out how to
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  Speaker 1: message in twenty for campaign twenty twenty six. I will
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  Speaker 1: get to that. Got some interesting first polling on the
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: incident in Minnesota and where the American public is on
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the shooting of a civilian by an Ice agent a
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: civilian protester. My interview today is with an in potentially interesting.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I say potentially interesting. I think he's interesting. But when
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I say potentially interesting, we'll see if he gets traction
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: as a candidate. But it's a candidate for governor of California,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And as I've said, I'm going to end up with
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  Speaker 1: more candidates for California govern than most other sort of
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  Speaker 1: individual state races because this is the fourth largest economy
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  Speaker 1: in the world, and in many cases, you know, California
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  Speaker 1: deals with many of the problems we're going to be
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: dealing with, and they deal with them first and soonest.
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  Speaker 1: But I'm always intrigued when there's somebody trying to take
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  Speaker 1: the center land in California, because it's pretty difficult to
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  Speaker 1: win in the center land in California. And so a
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  Speaker 1: candidate somebody who calls himself a lifelong Democrat turned Republican,
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  Speaker 1: though I think in the conversation, I think he's kind
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  Speaker 1: of always been in the sort of center center right place.
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  Speaker 1: His name's John Slavitt, definitely to the left of the
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  Speaker 1: two Republicans currently running in California, but choosing to run
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: as a Republican. He's also got his own podcast he's doing.
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  Speaker 1: He's a person from Silicon Valley, made some money in
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  Speaker 1: the tech world, though not enough to self fund his
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: own campaign, so he's not that kind of tech titan,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: if you will. But I'm always intrigued by seeing, you know,
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  Speaker 1: why go the partisan way as many you know, I'm
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: especially at a time I think the most interesting poll
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  Speaker 1: number I've seen in the last week is the yet
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: more growth among those that are calling themselves independent rather
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  Speaker 1: than a member of either political party. As my friend
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Bruce Melman put it, these latest Gallup polls show where
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  Speaker 1: they had twenty seven percent identifying as a Democrat, twenty
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: seven percent identifying as Republican, and forty five percent identifying
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  Speaker 1: as independent. Well, what that really means, it's seventy three
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  Speaker 1: percent of the country is choosing not to be a
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  Speaker 1: Republican and seventy three percent of the country is choosing
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  Speaker 1: not to be a Democrat. That think about that fact
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  Speaker 1: when we start to talk about what I want to
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  Speaker 1: dive into before we get to my conversation with John Slavitt,
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  Speaker 1: which is how do you message in this political environment,
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  Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be quite difficult. So
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to get to that in a second. Obviously
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: after the interview I've got. It is Wednesday, and every Wednesday,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I want to have a new top five list. Yes,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I'm playing the algorithmic game, so assume me. But it's
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: a little point of privilege. It's my podcasts, my top
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: five lists, So yes, it will be about the Miami Hurricanes,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: so deal with it. But even if you're not a
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: fan of the Hurricanes, if you're a fan of college football,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: if you're a fan of sports history, I think you'll
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: like my top five list. And then we'll do some
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Q and I always a popular segment. So but let
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: me dive into this issue of what I think is
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: going to be an extraordinarily challenging message, because you know,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: when it comes to campaign twenty twenty six, we already
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  Speaker 1: know the three endings. Okay, we just don't know which
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: ending it's going to be, and we don't know how
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  Speaker 1: we're going to get there. But the time the votes
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  Speaker 1: are counted next November, the verdict is going to be instant.
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  Speaker 1: Even if we're not quite sure of the meaning right away. Right,
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  Speaker 1: If Democrats win both the House and the Senate, it's
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  Speaker 1: going to be framed as a full rebuke of Donald Trump. Hartstop.
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  Speaker 1: If Democrats only win the House, it's going to be
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: called a partial rebuke, and everyone will obsess over the
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: size of the majority. Right, if it's twenty to thirty seats,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: you know, there'll be those that are going to say
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  Speaker 1: this was a blue wave. Right. I think you have
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a hard time calling it a wave without winning both
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  Speaker 1: thousand the Senate. But I digress. I'm going to get
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: to the political map in a few minutes. And then,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: of course, if Republicans hold both chambers, well you'll have
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  Speaker 1: a spiraling Democratic Party if you will, and Republicans will
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  Speaker 1: feel vindicated and Trump will claim total validation. So those
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: are the three basic outcomes. So we kind of know
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  Speaker 1: one of those, you know, door number one, Door number two,
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  Speaker 1: door number three. I think there's the most likely scenario
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  Speaker 1: is somewhere. It's either one or two. Three feels like
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  Speaker 1: a pretty far fetched given where we're starting, because I
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  Speaker 1: think it is worth noting, and it's it's a It's
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a point I made in my weekly podcast with Crystalize
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: on his substack feet, which is, you know, Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: politically could is starting in an extraordinarily weak place, yet he's
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: behaving as if he's got an extraordinary amount of political capital, right.
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  Speaker 1: I kind of think he's yellowing it a little bit,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: which is why one of the reasons and the point
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  Speaker 1: I made a couple of the last podcasts that why
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  Speaker 1: I think twenty twenty six is the year we're all
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: living dangerously is that we have a president who who
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: may personally feel very strengthened by you know, or uninhibited,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and that the Venezuela operation tactically went so smoothly that
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: he's going to think, hey, this is easy. I can
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: start playing the game of risk all over the world.
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  Speaker 1: So which is why I think there's so much extra
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  Speaker 1: uncertainty at this moment. So look, we that's why I'm
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: very skeptical that somehow this turns around. So well, I know,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Republicans believe that when the tax refunds come in that
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: that will start to make people feel better about his
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: economic plans and his economic ideas. Let's let's see what
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: happens when we get there doing what he did with
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  Speaker 1: the FED. He is you know, it is why if
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: you caught my update on that. By the way, I
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: did a special update in between podcasts on the YouTube channel,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: So I encourage you to go check it out if
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: you follow me in some socials, you may have already
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: seen this, But you know, I have a feeling and
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the guidance I was trying to give on that story
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  Speaker 1: is I think you're going to see a quick exit
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  Speaker 1: ramp from this phony investigation into the chairman of the
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. The Treasury Secretary's panic, half the White House
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: staff is panic. Even Trump's trying to walk away. Senate
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Republicans don't want any part of this, you know. If
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: he's hoping to remake the FED, he just you know what,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Janine Piro, his sort of personal US attorney that he
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: appointed there in DC, really sort of set his set
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: him back quite a bit here. So I wouldn't be
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  Speaker 1: surprised if you see a quick retraction of this investigation,
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  Speaker 1: even faster than what I speculated with a couple of
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  Speaker 1: days ago. So that said, we still look, we know
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  Speaker 1: there are a range of outcomes about these midterms. What
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  Speaker 1: we don't know and what's going to matter quite a bit,
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  Speaker 1: and what I'm going to be looking for throughout campaign
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in order to understand where we're headed
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  Speaker 1: in campaign twenty twenty eight, our first attempt at are
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  Speaker 1: true and electing a president for the post Trump era
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  Speaker 1: is why voters will choose the outcome that they choose,
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  Speaker 1: and that uncertainty is this central challenge of twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 1: Because the election isn't just about what voters think of
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. It's also going to be how to talk
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  Speaker 1: to an electorate that is more fragmented, less partisan, as
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  Speaker 1: I just outlined with this, more people identifying as independent
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  Speaker 1: than either as R or D, and more exhausted than
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  Speaker 1: at any point this century in politics. So twenty twenty
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  Speaker 1: six is functionally going to be a referendum on Trump.
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  Speaker 1: That part is obvious. What's not obvious or easy is
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  Speaker 1: how you turn a referendum style campaign. How you run
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  Speaker 1: a referendum style campaign without alienating the voters who will
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  Speaker 1: actually decide it. Because the voter's in the middle. You know,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: maybe they don't like Trump personally, but they don't mind
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the disruption. Maybe they don't like the disruption, but they
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: like Trump. You know, they're the hardest voters to win over,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and they're the decisive voters, and that's where I'm most
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: interested to see how political messaging gets formulated to go
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  Speaker 1: after that group of voters, because you know, coalitions are
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: never united around one belief, They're stitched together from competing motivation. So, yes,
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  Speaker 1: being a resistance Democrat is going to matter to some
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: base voters. Being a Trump Republican is going to matter
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: to some Republican base voters. But elections are going to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: be one. There are always one on the margins, They're
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: never you know, yes, how big your political base is
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: determines how many voters in the margins you need to
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: win over. But you always need some voters on the margins.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And these days, these marginal voters and these margins are
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: filled with a lot more skeptical independence than we saw
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: even two years ago, very weakly affiliated voters with both parties,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: you know. So, yeah, I guess I'm leaning Democrat. I
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: guess I'm leaning Republican. But I'd prefer to be an independent.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Those type of folks and people who do not experience
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: politics the way activists do. Right, I've always said there's
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a difference between the online political world and the world
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: everybody else lives in. That goes to a safe way
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: and I'll lease a B Jay's at costco, you name it.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So the real question I have is this, what do
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: these voters want? Right? Do they want disruption? Do they
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: want competence? Do they want bipartisanship? Do they want stability?
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  Speaker 1: And Here's where I think a lot of analysts, myself included,
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  Speaker 1: can get this wrong sometimes because one of the most
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: common mistakes in political analysis is projecting your own values
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: onto the electorate. Right. I know what I look for,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: all right, in a in a political candidate, I look
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: for character, ethics, competence, and innovation without being reckless, you know.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: But that's me, and I know other people look at
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: it differently, And I think too often folks, and you know,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: folks will project their own political what they would like
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: to see out of a politician onto an entire group
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: of swing voters. I know, all of this is our pieces.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: What I'm curious to see is what will move what? What?
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  Speaker 1: What is it that this group of skeptical voters who
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: can you to vote, who continue to tell us what
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: they don't want? Is there something they will embrace? Is
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: there something to learn in twenty twenty six that can
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: tell US a little bit more about twenty twenty eight.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So the bottom line is, I know I'm not the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: avatar for the American voter, but neither is most everybody else,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Which brings me to the core strategic question of this cycle.
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  Speaker 1: In a fragmented media environment and a polarized political culture,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: what is the most effective way to win in twenty
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: twenty six? How much base resistance, either left or right
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: do you have to espouse? Well, a lot of it
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: has to do, of course, with the electorate you have
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: to deal with right. If you're dealing with a primary electorate,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that's one thing. If you're dealing with a very purple electorate,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: that's another. And what's interesting to me is I think
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: both parties are kind of divided on which path to take.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: So let me start with the Democrats. It's if you
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: intermal life are easy to make, referendums easy to run
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: as resistance campaigns. So in some ways resistance is going
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to feel like the easiest path to midterm success. Maybe
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: it is, But I also sense and you see it
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: here in this sort of distinction rum of manuals trying
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: to create within the within the world of the president,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: which is well there's the resistance, folks, and then there's
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the renewal. He calls it renewal. I call it the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: problem solving way. So for Democrats' debate is, you know,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: might be framed as resistance versus governance, but maybe the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: better way to describe it is Trump accountabiit. How much
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: should you focus on accountability for Trump, the administration and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: the individual versus how much should a Democratic candidate in
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six focus on forward facing problem solving? Hard
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: stop Now, the best politicians are going to try to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: do both. But there's a trap there. There's a fine
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: line between defending the rule of law and sounding obsessed
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: with procedure. What one voter sees as accountability, another sees
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: as disruption or worse, political grievance gets dressed up as principle.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: So abusive argument power arguments absolutely can energize a base,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, but they are not always persuasive
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to voters who want politics to feel less consuming, not more. Right, So,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: for instance, I do not think that Democrats sweeping the
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: House and Senate means they have a mandate to impeach
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: and convict Donald Trump. Right, you know that that's sort
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of you know, I think it's more of they're trying
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: to turn the page. They want to see a check
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: on him. They don't want to have him run rough
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: shot over the constitution. To me, that is what voters,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: what the large chunk of voters are trying to say.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: But we will find out, won't we. But I do
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: have a question that I would love to see every
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Democrat running for office answer clear simply so I know,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: as a voter, and you know as a voter, how
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: they're going to behave while in office. It's not a
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: gotcha question to me, it's simply a governing signal. Would
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: you work with Donald Trump? And if so, how would
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: you do it? Because how you answer that question as
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a candidate tells me how voters tells voters how you
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: planned to govern in twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: It's in some ways running in twenty twenty it's going
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: to be easier. Can we're moving on from Donald Trump?
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Even the Constitution says we're moving on from Donald Trump.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: But if you're running in twenty twenty six, you got
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to govern with him. And there's a chunk of voters
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: who don't aren't going to sit there and say, oh, yeah,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: we'll wait till there's unified democratic control or there's no no,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: no no. They want you solving problems now, they don't
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: want you postponing. We've had enough of this postponement. We've
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: had enough of this. So look, I think that some
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Democrats are going to say when I asked the question,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: would you work with Donald Trump? And if so, the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: say no, because they will argue that even agreeing with
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: him on one issue, say capping credit card rates, like
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump may may work together on
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: they might say, you're just granting legitimacy to him on
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: everything else that I don't agree with. And I get
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: that argument. Now I happen to disagree that ultimately the
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: voters sent both Donald Trump. You know, I might argue
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: that the voters are twenty twenty four sent Donald Trump
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to be president, and the voters twenty twenty six may
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: send a bunch of Democrats in Congress, and they're saying,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: you figure it out, but we do not want one
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: party control, because every time they've gotten one party control,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: they quickly get the other party involved in governing. So
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that's why I come down on the voters are asking you,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: whether you like it or not, figure out how to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: work with him where you can. That said, I get
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the argument, and I understand the principle you know where
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I sit doesn't matter. Is that what a majority of
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: the constituents in the election you're running in want, And
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: in some cases they may want that, And I get it,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: But I do think voters deserve to know the difference
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: between refusing to compromise and refusing to govern. And Democrats
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: are gonna have to decide how much they want to
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: be resistance warriors and how much they want to be
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: problem solvers. And this will be I think, a brighter
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: divide in twenty twenty eight. It's going to be. You know,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: it's going to be in some cases you may have
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: to quit to see those differences here. But I'm one
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: who believes and will find out that's why we hold
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: these elections. I don't want to assume I know the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: answer to hear, but I think ultimately that last group
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: of voters that has waffled and that has been voting
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: against rather than voting for, I think they're going to
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: be more persuadable on a problem solving than they are
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: in resist. But we shall see. I tend to believe
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: that ultimately voters are going to decide how they want
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump to be dealt with. They put him there
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: a second time. I think that you can't ignore that
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: if you're on the resistant side of things. So then
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you ask yourself what you need to answer the question
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: why do voters keep doing Why did voters do it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: a second time? Why? Right? What wasn't that they weren't
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: satisfied with? And you know, I think you can't keep
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: going down the road. Well, they're just not well informed.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I think these days, everybody kind of knows where he stands.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Everybody kind of knows what you're going to get. So
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I think you have to sort of deal in the
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: reality that you have, not the one that you wish existed. Now.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: History suggests that forward looking messages usually do outperform backward
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: looking ones, especially with swing voters. Who's looking to the future,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: who's building a bridge to the twenty first century? Who's
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: building a bridge to the twentieth century? Right? Trump now
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: is fair? And now that said, Trump's won basically one
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: of the few politicians in my lifetime who's succeeded by
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: constantly relitigating the past. That is normally not a winner
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: in presidential politics, and he made it a winner in
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. In fact, you know, his twenty sixteen
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: campaign wasn't as backward looking as his twenty twenty four campaign,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: but I would argue it really simply worked with his base,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and then you had reluctant swing voters decide, I don't
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: think Biden Harrison know how to manage this economy. I'll
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: take Trump. And so that's I think how we ended
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: up where we ended up. But if you assume that
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: most swing voters aren't political diehards, and that they're frankly
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: a bit self interested, right, And I say that descriptively,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: not critically, I think most voters vote in their self interest,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: not in the greater interest. Okay, there are you know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I've called them. I used to. You know, they're sort
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: of aspirational voters, and there's narciss and there's sort of
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: me first, you know, forget America first, me first voters.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think most people vote what's in their own best interest,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: and then they rationalize it by saying, well, they think
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: it's in the greater good as well, But ultimately they
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: want to know what helps them, not necessarily who won
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: yesterday's political argument. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is
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• 23:21
  Speaker 1: chuck brings me to political exhaustion. We're now entering the
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: tenth year of the Trump era. I brought this up before.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I think the fatigue is real, and I think that's
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: part of why he can't seem to recover from from
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like, oh, he's the same Trump, and
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: so that's why people haven't sort of given they already
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: gave him a second, third, and fourth chance. So I
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: don't know if this is very recoverable, just like with
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden once he lost it after afghanistdate wasn't recoverable
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: because I kind of think he was too known of
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: a figure even though he was a first term president.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Hey been vice president, he'd been there. You know, there
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: was wasn't there there. There wasn't going to be the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: same level of patience that a Bill Clinton got, a
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush got, and even the Donald Trump got
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the first time, or what Baraco or the or the
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: or the benefit of doubt, Barack Obama got the end
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: of his first term even though the economy hadn't quite
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: yet turned around, but he got there because he was
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: still seen as his new ish to this. So I
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: think this time fatigue is real, and I don't know
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: where that's going. So I think that a turn the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: page messaging in some form may be more appealing to
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: independence than being seen as perpetually resisting. And I would
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: argue there's a piece of the Republican base that's perpetually
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: resisting the grievance side of things, and on the Democratic side,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the Trump resistance. I don't want to say that to
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: say resistance is wrong, and I don't even want to
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: imply that resistance is futile. I think resistance is necessary
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: when it goes up against the constitution, but I just
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: don't think it's sufficient to win elections. Right. It may
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: be sufficient to win primaries, but I'm not sure it
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: wins general elections. Look, none of this is definitive, but
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I will just tell you in the past, optimism usually
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: wins in elections unless it misreads the mood of the electorate. Right.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: And the truth is, that's something we don't fully know
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: yet is which message is going to land the hardest
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. It could be that we're in
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: such a cranky mood that optimism and trying to turn
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: the page doesn't work because people aren't ready to look ahead.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: They want to deal with the problems staring them in
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the face. But that's where that's why I think this
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: is a this might be a bit of a moving target,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: and why that in my larger thesis here why I
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: think messaging in twenty twenty six is not going to
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: be easy because of fragmentation, Because I think somewhat resistant
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: and somewhat turned the page and there's just going to
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: be this isn't going to be as easy as you think. Now,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: let's turn to the Republicans, because I kind of think
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: they do face eight what I call a mirror image dilemma.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: There's a simple math problem that they have to deal
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: with in primaries, Republican primaries, because the easiest way to
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: win is to make the election about Donald Trump in
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: a primary. Right, if you can be the defender of
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Trump and trump Ism in the primary and the sort
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: of the big the chief bulwark against anybody trying to
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: get rid of Trump, that's good politics for you in
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a Republican primory. But the more the election is about Trump,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: the more you do risk alienating the middle in a
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: general election, especially if you're from a competitive state, including
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: places like Texas or even Iowa or even Kansas. In theory,
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: this should create space for pragmatic Republicans to survive. In practice,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: partisanship and fear of disloyalty make that nearly impossible. You know,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: if I were a Republican office holder, it would really
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: piss me off that Trump is allowed to triangulate on
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: any issue whenever he wants. He's allowed to go off
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the reservation and say, yeah, I'm calling up Elizabeth Warren,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about capping credit card interest rates.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: But if another senator says they want to work with
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren to do X Y or Z, you know,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the loyalty police will be like, there's a rhino. What
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: kind of Soros bribery money has suddenly been slipped into
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: so and so's kool aid drink? Right, So it's it's
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: fascinating with Trump. It sort of he gets to sort
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: of triangulate and shift and duck and dodge. But if
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: another elected Republican who's actually going to be on the
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: ballot in twenty six attempts it, there's usually some sort
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: of loyalty police that is calling the Maga cops on
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: these folks. So he can flirt with capping credit card
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: interest rates, but I'm not sure Dan sulliv And can
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: do that.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: He can break ideological rules without consequence, but good luck
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: if you're John Cornyn and you try to do that,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: and so you end up with a party right now
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: that they're stuck in a strange trap. Trump can redefine
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: conservatism on the fly, and he does it quite a bit,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: but anyone running under his banner is punished for trying
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: to do the same, so you have the primary incentives
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: that reward loyalty tests even when those tests weaken candidates
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: for November see Texas Ken Paxton. And then there's governing.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Republicans technically control the House. Functionally, they often don't. There's
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: such narrow margins that we now have had health absences,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: basic life realities, a car accident, a health issue, this
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: or that, that mean the majority is extraordinarily fragile at best.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: There was a time last week where there were two
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen Democrats and two n thirteen Republicans. Neither
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Republicans didn't have a majority, and they had to be
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: careful which votes they put on the floor, which puts
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the party in an interesting place at the moment because
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: there are many Republican incumbents, both in the House and
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: the Senate, who would love one more attempt at legislating
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: before twenty twenty the campaign of twenty twenty six, they'd
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: like to do another reconciliation bill, these you know where
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: you only need fifty votes in the Senate so you
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: can get you know, so your party sort of party
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: line votes and get some stuff done. They did the
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: one big, beautiful bill, but they want something else tangible
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to run on before a tough midterm. But the problem
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: they got is President Trump appears to be increasingly uninterested
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: in working with Congress at all, even when his party
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: is in charge. I've talked to multiple Republican lawmakers who
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: say they'd like to do a reconciliation bill, but admit
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the White House doesn't seem to be that interested in it.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: And if he's not going to move be interested in it,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to get the votes
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: they need. They're not going to be able to define
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: with the what would be and said reconciliation bill and
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: what happens? Well, what's the point of what are Republicans
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: running to do to keep their majority?
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: To do?
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: What with it? If Donald Trump won't even let them
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: use their majority to do something? This calendar here, So
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: his disengagement doesn't just frustrate lawmakers, it undermines their entire
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: campaign argument. If the President doesn't seem to care about
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: legislating even when Republicans control Congress, then why should voters
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: care about preserving the Republican majority in twenty twenty six.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: This is the mistake that they're going to make. But
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: you know, by not doing some trying to attempt to
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: do some legislating. Now, maybe the majorities are just too
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: narrow and they don't think a reconciliation bill can succeed,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: and trying to do one and not getting it done
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: would be a massive political failure. So there's sort of
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: this fear of failure. But I just don't think that,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: you know, ultimately, if the only thing they end up
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: having to run on is vote Republican to stop impeachment,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: maybe that cites the president's base a little bit. I
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: just don't know if that is enough to woo a
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: swing voter. We'll see. Trump knows enough about how presidencies
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: work to understand that losing the midterm effectively ends his
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: ability to be any kind of activist president. And yet
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: he doesn't seem ready to help his fellow Republicans actually
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: legislate so they could actually make a case for why
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: they're needed in Congress. And in fact, he's cutting off
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: his own party off at the knees. And if you're
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: trying to we've noticed that a bunch of Republicans are quietly,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: you know, trying to get distance from Trump where they
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: think it's necessary. Right, you have a growing number of
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Republicans willing to vote for Obamacare subsidies, growing number of
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate willing to put a check on
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: the War Powers Act when it came to military action
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: in Venezuela, Greenland, etc. You have a growing number of
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Republicans of the Senate. You don't like what the hell
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: he's messing around with the independence of the FED. So
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: there's certainly plenty of places Republicans would like to declare
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: some independence, and yet they can't. But Donald Trump can, right,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: He gets to go all over the map. But if
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: a Republican down the ballot attempts to do it, the
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Rhino police get called, which also brings me to what's
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: actually happening on the ground. This week, Democrats got a
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: huge recruiting victory out of Alaska. They have a real
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Senate candidate in a state that is not always easy
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: for them to win. The last time they won a
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: senenceat in Alaska, it took an indictment of the sitting
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: senator essentially to make that a plausible But it isn't impossible,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: especially Alaska has shown it may be it is certainly
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: a libertarian leaning conservative red state, but emphasis on libertarian.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: They're very skeptical of government in general, strong government in general.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: And there's a reason why Lisa mrcous keys sort of
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: in some ways more of the avatar of the Alaska
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: voter than anybody else that's been in power. But it's
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: a big deal to recruit Mary Patello, and she is
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: somebody that what was in her best interest, what was
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: in her best interest, might have been running for governor.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: It's a less partisan race, it's a more Alaska focused race.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: She wouldn't have to get into the Trump wars, but
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the fact that she's wanting to take one for the party.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: This is the harder race. Running for the Senate. She's
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: challenging an incumbent who's no Maga Republican in Dan Sullivan.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: First time I interviewed him I meet the press, he
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: described himself to me as a McCain Republican. I'm not
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: sure he's going to use that phraseology right now, because
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: that can you know, he's gotten away with looking conservative
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: when he stands next to Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. So
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think many sort of mainstream conservative Republicans realize,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: you know, he's much more of a moderate and very
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: much in international on that front, because that's when he
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: told when he said he's a McCain Republican, he really
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: was trying to emphasize the national security side of things.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: But the bottom line is the recruitment of Peltel putting
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Alaska in play. Democrats can now plausibly point they need
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: four pick up four Senate seats and hold Michigan, in Georgia,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: They're in New Hampshire, They're and Minnesota. Okay, therese are
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: four vulnerable open seats that they have to defend. One
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: is not open in Georgia, but three the Michigan, Minnesota,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire are those aren't easy to defend. I
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: think the light blue states are defensive, easier to defend
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: in a mid term with Trump in the white House
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: than if it were a mid term with Biden in
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the white House. But the Democrats have can now plausibly
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: point to five Republican held pick up opportunities. They've got
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: May the Susan Collins seat, which she may or may
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: not seek reelection. Some longtime Collins observers have noted she's
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: not yet filed. Now filing deadline still a couple months away.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Noting North Carolina. We've seen both. I mean, Roy Cooper,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: the former governor there, is raised a s ton of money.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Michael Wattley's doing pretty well, but he's still coming up
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: fifty cents to every dollar that Cooper's doing. So North
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Carolina one hundred percent in play. The recruitment has shared
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Brown in Ohio puts Ohio in play. You know, he
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: may he's got a path to forty eight. I don't
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: know if he can get to fifty. Buddy, when he's
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: gotten he he is won. Two of his three Senate
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: victories came in midterm years. Presidential years are slightly harder
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: in Ohio, Alaska, as I just pointed out. And then
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: of course the mess in Texas. You know, if Ken
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Paxson is a Republican nominee, you know, any Democrats going
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: to keep that competitor, so they actually you know, they
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: need four and they got five in play. And when
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: you've recruited someone like when you've gotten a recruit like
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Mary Peltello in Alaska, well, now if you're trying to
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: get the outgoing governor of Kansas, Lord Kelly, or the
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: congresswoman in Kansas, Scharise Davis to think about running in
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: the Senate, you can point to Alaska and if you're
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: if you're trying to decide whether to put some resources
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: into Iowa, I think it's pretty clear that there's enough
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: political tumult in Iowa this year open race for governor or.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Democrats have a strong candidate that Iowa I think is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: in place, So that would be a six. Maybe you
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: get a seventh in Kansas. Maybe you get a Jared Moskowitz,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a Democratic Congressman from South Florida, to suddenly jump into
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: the Senate race. Now in Florida, maybe you can can
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: put the old Marco Rubio seat, which is being held
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: by an appointed senator on that one. The point is
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: is that that recruiting coup in Alaska only potentially opens
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: the door to get a serious recruit in Kansas, get
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: a serious recruit in Florida, maybe even open the door
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: in a in a Mississippi. But it's bottom line, the
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Democrats are much further along in putting the Senate in
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: play than I expected at this point in the calendar.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Even in six when they needed six seats, they had
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to put eight series in play in order to win
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: the six. This point in time nobody thought they could
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: get the six. It was like, how many you know,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: how close are they going to get? Can they get
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: close enough that they can win the Senate by eight
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: pick up three or four? And that was the conversation
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: at this point in time in that calendar. Well, here
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: we are in January of twenty twenty six and Democrats
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: already have a path to find five in legitimate five
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: likely a six in Iowa. And we'll see if seven,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: eight or nine come up. But that's I think that
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: is a reminder of just how precarious this environment is
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: for Republicans going forward. So we'll see. By the way,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: one more little data point about the four seat pickup
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Democrats need four seats to flip the Senate.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: It is worth noting that over the last hundred year,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: basically since the start of direct election of senators, the
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: party out of power when they gain Senate seats, the
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: average pickup is four. So Democrats only have to meet
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: the average. They don't have to overperform six, eight, or ten.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: They only need four. Not easy with this map, but
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: now it's no longer improbable, let alone im possible, So
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: we'll see. Meanwhile, Republicans face a governing reality that's quietly
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: shaping the cycle. They don't really have a workinghouse majority,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: their president doesn't seem eager to help them prove why
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Republican majorities matter to voters in twenty twenty six. So
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: that combination narrow control, legislative stagnation, and a president who
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: prefers unilateral action creates a messaging vacuum for Republican incumbents
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: trying to justify their relevance. So, look, I don't have
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: a clear answer of what message is going to be
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: the best message for success in twenty twenty six for Republicans?
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Can they triangulate Trump? Unlikely? For Democrats? Is it resistance
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: versus forward problem solving? I'm here to lay out what
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for and let's see how this plays out.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: But I do know this twenty twenty six is going
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: to teach us what exactly works with voters in the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Trump era second decade? Does resistance still mobilize enough voters
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: to win? Does exhaustion finally outweigh anger? Do voters want
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: confrontation or competence or competent confrontation? And while we know
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: they want disruption, what does disruption look like in a
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: post Trump world. Boy, we're going to learn a lot.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for election season to begin in my
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: role as political anthropologists, but I will admit I am
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: there's a reason I call twenty twenty sixth the year
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: we're living dangerously. I am always nervous about what kind
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: of tinder box we are living in, and speaking of
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: said tinder box. Before we get to the interview, John Slavitt,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: I want to give you a little update on what's
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: happening out of Minnesota. In Minneapolis in particular, Quinnipiac is
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the first reputable polster to come out of the field
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: national poll asking what voters how voters are reacting to
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the shooting. And let me just get right to the
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: question as far I'm going to read you the exact
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: question as it was worded, as far as you are aware,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: do you think this shooting was justified or not justified?
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Thirty five percent called it justified, fifty three percent said
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: not justified. Only twelve percent preferred not to answer it
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: didn't know. Let me give you a little party breakdown
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: on that. Among Republicans, seventy seven percent called it justified,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: ten percent said not justified. Among Democrats, it was ninety
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: two percent not justified, four percent justified. Among independents, well,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: they look like the overall majority, right. Fifty nine percent
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: of Independence said it was not justified. Just twenty eight
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: percent of Independence said it was justified. And there is
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: a massive gender gap, as you might expect when the
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: victim of this shooting is a mother. Anyway, sixty one
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: percent of women said this was not justified. Thirty percent
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: of women said it was a narrow plurality. Of men,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: forty two percent said it was justified, forty one percent
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: excuse me, forty four percent it was a narrow plorality
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: said it was not justified. Forty four percent said it
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: was not justified. Of men, forty two percent said it
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: was justified. But that is a massive so basically a
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: two point difference between justified and not justified among men
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: and a thirty one point gap among those two women.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: It is, as a friend of mine, Dante Cheney point out,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: if we you know, he and I have been talking
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: about this for a long time, that what is the
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: what is the magabase? I think it's thirty five percent right,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: that thirty five percent saying it's justified. That's the magabase.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: That's not necessarily the Republican base per se, but maybe
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: it is Trump's Republican party. Few other notes from this poll.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of respondents were aware of the incident.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Just to put that in context, that's sky high. That
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: basically means everybody is aware of the incident. They may
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: have gotten a different you know, seen it differently depending
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: on where they get their news. But that is that
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: is saturation in this fragmented day and age. Eighty two percent.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: And it was across the board, right, It was eighty
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans had seen or heard about the video,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of Democrats, eighty four of Independence. It
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: was across the board. So this this is a story
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: that has penetrated. This is not a online story that
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: went viral. This is something I think bigger than that.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: The quinnipiec did ask a couple of proof disapproved questions.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Christy no Her handling every job as Secretary of Homeland
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Security thirty six percent approof fifty two percent disapproved. And
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: then do you approve it disapprove? Of the way US
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Immigration and Customs Enforcement aka ICE is enforcing immigration laws
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: forty percent approved, five percent disapprove I think it's interesting
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: that ICE has a higher approval rating than NOME, but
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: also I higher disapproval rating than NOME. For what it's worth,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: bottom line is that there was no there's barely anybody
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: who doesn't have an opinion on ICE. Just three percent
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: said they didn't have an opinion versus Christy No Home,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: where there was twelve percent. But the point of this
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: poll is, look Quinnipiac. If you wanted to tell me,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Quinnipiac always seems to lean you know, one or two
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: points democratic. That's true, but it's a very consistent number.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: The point is this is a double digit gap. So
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's any you know, the fact that
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: there's a clear majority, and it's a clear majority of
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: independence and massive majority of Democrats, and then you see
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: the Republican the other way. You know, I look at
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: any of these sort of quote whose narrative is winning
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: or whose issue profile is winning? I just always focus
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: on the independence because your group of independence, especially with Quinnipiac,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: quantifies independence. They include leaners, but it's usually an even
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: number of lean D independence and lean R Independence. That's
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: a big number, and that's that that's a huge gap.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: The point is this is not playing well with any
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: voter outside the base, and it's it's hard to see
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: how this gets better for the administration, how this gets
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: better for Ice. And I think, you know, I wonder,
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I wonder if Christy Nome is going to be the
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I wonder. You know, it's funny, you know, Donald Trump
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: has had this whole don't know firings because he doesn't
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: want to create narratives that say this person failed at
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: their job. Right, That's why Pete Haig Saith has survived
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: his incompetency at the Pentagon. I wonder if Christy nom number.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: You know, one thing Donald Trump cares about is that stuff,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: right is poll writings. And you know, she's been a
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: terrible spokesperson for her immediate decision to come out and
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: defend maybe good base politics for her if she wants
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: to run for president in the MAGA primary. But it
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: is causing all sorts of problems for the image of
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: the of the party as a whole, and it's actually
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: going to set back you know, the more the tactics
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: of immigration enforcement are the story, the more they're going
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: to you know, lose the larger argument about immigration and
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: whether there's anybody that realizes, hey, you kind of you
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: need to put this story away. Christy Nome is an
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: easy scapegoade here. The Donald Trump first term would have
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: John Kelly as chief of staff, would have probably talked
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: him into dumping Gnome. At this point, I think that
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: there seems to be less of that. But I'm guessing,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: you know, she's I do think she's in a precarious
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: spot because she's she's not well liked in the West
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: wing circle. There's some that do like Nome, some that
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: are skeptical, some that are mad about Corey Lewandowski, who's
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: a close political aid, always rumored to be even closer
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: than that. I don't want to dabble in that, but
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: that does color the perception. You know, this is not
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: about what you know. Many of you listening might say, well,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't he fire Nome? She's in competent, she's not
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: good at this job, etcetera, etcetera. That isn't the way
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: the Trump world works. But she's already she's already not
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: in the best place with many in Trump world. So
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: if this continues to be a political problem overall for
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: the president, she becomes when you look at numbers like this,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: she becomes a potential easy scapegoat and it sort of
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: exit ramp if he kind of wants to quote unquote
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: turn the page on this, But maybe he doesn't. Maybe
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: they think this is a good fight for them. I
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: don't see it, And I think this initiapoling shows you that.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: And you know how it's not. You know it's not
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: good politics. Find me an elected Republican sitting in a
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: swing district who has defended it. You're not going to
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: find one. Let me sneak of a break. When we
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: come back, meet the new centrist hope. I guess if
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: you want to call it that, If there is such
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: thing as a center lane in California politics, is John
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Slavitt the answer when we come back, having good life
• 47:28
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• 47:32
  Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have
• 47:34
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• 47:37
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• 47:42
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• 47:44
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• 47:47
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• 47:50
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• 47:53
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• 47:56
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• 49:02
  Speaker 1: is something you should really think about, especially if you've
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: got a growing family. So I've been covering politics now
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: going back to nineteen ninety two more elusive things to
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: find in American politics is a California moderate, and I
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: say that part of it is the system. Arnold Schwarzenegger
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: tried to create a system that would then incentivize the
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: center to be the governing force of California politics. Of course,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: center depends on where you sit. Those from outside of
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: California may look at a Gavenuwsommer in Nancy Pelosi and
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: say they're liberal. Those that live in San Francisco would
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: say they're centrist. So some of it is sometimes perspective.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: My guest today is John Slavitt, and he intrigues me
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: because he's trying to do what arguably nobody other than
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Arnold Schwarzenegger has been able to do, which is essentially
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: owned the center lane in a California gubernatorial race and
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: pull this off. We have seen many attempt and he
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: also has a background in Silicon Valley. This is also
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: in theory should be a strength and in practice in
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: the past has been a bit of a hurdle himself,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: so I'm very intrigued. That's why I invited him on
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the podcast because I think the California governor's race is
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: so wide open, and I think we still don't know
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: all the candidates that are going to be running. Filing
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: deadline still a couple months away. But John Slavit is
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: a I think he described himself at one point a
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: lifelong Democrat now becoming a Republican, but really trying to
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: see if there is a center lane to straddle. So
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: let's have that conversation. John, Welcome to the podcast.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Chuck. Nice to see you.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: So let me start, Well, first of all, let me
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: just start with why are you doing this? Why politics?
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: And when was the first time you ever thought you'd
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: get into politics.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Well, first time I ever thought i'd get into politics
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: really seriously decided to run a few months ago. I've
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: been interested in politics. I've been a student of politics.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: I've been a bit of a political and news junkie
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: for a long long time. I started my career actually
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: in media. I came to Califna at thirty right sorry Scene,
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: which was sort of an early tech meeting company, right
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: well it was. I didn't work for SNEAD, but I
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: worked for a company that joint ventured with them, so
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: you got it partially right. I worked for the founder
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: of the entertainment a guy named Yarrolman used to be
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Lee Masters. He was the former CEO of NPR before
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: the current CEO. So I came out to California to
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: work for the founders of Wired magazine nineteen ninety five,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: prior to the Internet actually being a thing. So interested
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: in politics, interested in media for a long long time.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: But I'd say that becoming a civic entrepreneur, which I've
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: done the last year with my own podcast, really gave
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: me access to people in the state, Republicans, Democrats, independence activists.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I've had journalists like you on my podcast,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: to Alex Michaelson. That really got me underneath the issues
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: out in the state, traveling the state every week and
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: talking about what ails the state. And my passion initially
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: was to create a forum to have serious conversations about
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: problem solution in California. I'd say it was death by
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: a thousand cuts to decide to run, because you know,
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: it's a fraught time to actually run for something it's crazy.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: It's dangerous on multiple levels and difficult.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: It's reputationally damaging to you even no matter if you
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: do everything correctly. And that's not fair, but it's just
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: the way Paula could be. It's becomes so huge holistic.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Sure, I have my eyes wide open, but I'd say
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: that it was death by a thousand cuts, Chuck. There
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: wasn't one thing. It was many things. And in California,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: I think the challenge, like many states, is civic engagement, right,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: just the number of people who actually care. I think
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: in California right now, unfortunately, there are more people who
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: care about national politics and some of those fights, you know,
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: the Newsom Trump fight, right, which gets so much energy,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: but it doesn't actually have anything to do with what's
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: ailing the state. And then people care about some of
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: their local stuff. But the reality is what happens at
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: the state level has a bigger impact on people's lives
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: than anything else.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: It's true in every state. And I'll tell you an
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: example of sort of that frustration you're expressing about the
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: lack of interest in state civics. I was when I
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: first started as political director at NBC. I was, and
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: even before then, when I was at the hotline. I
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: was really excited about getting to know all the political
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: reporters at all the NBC local affiliates just around the country,
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: and I thought, boy, what a powerful I had my
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: own thought of what this could be. And then you
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: come to find out there are like there were like
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: ten local news stations in the country that bothered to
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: have a full time political reporter, let alone a political producer.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: And in fact, I believe there was only one in
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: the state of California had Kevin Riggs I think was
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: his name, at KCRA in Sacramento. He was sort of
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: in Sacramento being the state capital. That would make sense.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: But I remember, you know, you've got you got my
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: buddy Colin Conan Nolan down in LA who you know,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: and you brought up like Michaelson. But it is shocking
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: to me, and this is look we have. Local media
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: is now in a different place because of the whole
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: media disruption, but even before sort of media disruption of
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: legacy media in general and linear television, there was always
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: a lack of interest in local in state politics in California.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: It's always been nationalized. And I didn't know if that
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: was because of how poorly we on the East Coast
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: report on the West coast. You know, I've never understood that.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: But how long have you lived in California and how
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: long have you experienced that?
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Well? Actually, I was going to say, we've got the
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: California Post about about to launch, right New York Posts
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: California Posts.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, so an East Coast news. You know, I'm
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: not I'm skeptic. I look, I'm skeptical that it's going
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: to help teach people more about what's happening in California.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's just going to be page six for California.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: But we'll find out, right.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: Well, we'll find out. I think I think that maybe
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: it instigates some good trouble to borrow a phrase, and
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: we need more good trouble in California. I've been here
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: thirty years, so I moved here to follow, you know,
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: my California dream. Sure, as I mentioned, to work for
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: the founders of Wired magazine. And uh, you know, I've
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: worked in three different sectors in California. Uh, and and
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: had five kids along the way. And to answer your
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: question in terms of just California, do people care? You know,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: why isn't more California state coverage a thing. I think
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: it's becoming more of a thing. And I think that
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: if I look at my own podcast upwards, if half
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: our audience is outside of California and depends on the episode,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: So there's just a ton of interest in California, as
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: you know, from outside California looking in. If we could
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: replicate that with the passion and interest of people inside
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: California we want to get involved to change the state,
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: will do great. But I think it's actually happening. I
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: think that Ashley Zavala, who is an amazing local reporter
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: in Sacramento, is becoming iconic for actually pressing elected officials
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: to get to the bottom of issues. For instance, the
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: California state Capital. You may be familiar with this boondoggle
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: that's happened where there's a renovation project going on in
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: the state capitol, so elected official is going to have
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: a better home to work in, which is fine. Was
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: supposed to cost a few hundred million. Now apparently it's
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: over a billion and two thousand people under nda on
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: the projects. So people are actually can't muffle to actually
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: talk about it. So there's a ton to talk about
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: in California. We have the most interesting opportunity and interesting people,
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: and it's a shame there's not more coverage.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Can pet peeve of You brought up NDAs and Donald
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Trump does this in the federal government level. You just
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: brought it up there. If taxpayer dollars are involved, NDAs
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: should be illegal. I mean, I don't understand. I mean,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I just think it's just pure and simple. If you
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: are getting compensated by federal tax any taxpayer, state or
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: federal right the government, you shouldn't be able to hide
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: an audit from the public in any form.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Well, you bring up a good point. There's an assemblyman
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: named Joe Patterson who's in the California State Assembly, who
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: I had in my podcast a while ago, and he
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: actually is the number one, I guess instigator for transparency,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: and he created legislation to ban the use of NDAs
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: with elected officials in California when they're you know, discussing,
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: debating and ports and issues for the state. Knew some
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: signed it to his credit. So there is some movement
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: for transparency in California. But it's not retroactive. It's not
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: like it's unseealing every NBA sign.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Look, I get that and I understand. Look, you've been
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: in business. You know that you can't have every meeting
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: in public. In the immediacy sometimes you need to have
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: space to make a decision. But eventually there should be
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: available to the public, right, Like I think you can agree, okay,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: you know within a year, it should be public within
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: you know, a reasonable period of time. I mean, I
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: understand the need for some discretion, not secrecy, discretion, but
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: like I assume common sense could actually create better legislation
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: on that.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: I'll say one other thing on this and then I'm
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: sure you're going to go lots of places that you
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: want to go in this conversation. But I've said a
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: few times now since I announced for governor that I
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: would do the major negotiations with third parties with lights
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: on in cameras rolling. I think that there should be
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: much more transparency on the major discussions that the governor
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: and team have with counterparties. One of the biggest examples
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: is with the very powerful unions in California that exert
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: such huge influence. You know, public sector unions in California.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: They raise about a billion dollars in dues and they're
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: donating three hundred million dollars in California annually to buy, sell,
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: and trade politicians. And mostly what they've done is cow
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: Democrats who are so afraid to oppose them, you know,
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: in legislation. And so I would actually have these counterparties
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: across the table, put my priorities on the table and
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: show it.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Let me, let's talk about your political evolution. Because you
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: talked about yourself as a lifelong Democrat. You say you've
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: never voted for Donald Trump. Now you want his endorsement.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: What has he done now that has convinced you? Do
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: you think it was a mistake that you didn't vote
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: for him him the first three times?
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: Well, let me say this, you're correct in what you
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: said so far. You know, Republicans in California have been
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: very cute about the Trump endorsement. I think Steve Hilton
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: and Chad Bianco, the other two serious Republicans in the
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: race who we can talk about, they've said different things
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: about endorsed by Trump. I think Chad Bianco said, well,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: I accept it in private. So that's all just weird cuteness. Yeah,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: President of the United States wants to endorse the Republican running.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: You accept the endorsement, but I think it's unlikely Trump
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: endorses me because I'm the only Republican who's going to
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: call balls and strikes about where I agree and disagree.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: And we can get into that. But if Trump endorsed me,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: it would be because he endorses where I agree and
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: where I have very independent minded ideas that may be
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: at odds with his ideas.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: You know, I had Steve Klubeck on here about nine
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: months ago before he dropped that, and while while your
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: personalities might be different, he was sort of preaching the
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: same thing. Well, and he had his own way. Yeah,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: he had his own way. I mean, you know, and
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: I get this with Trump, right, there's always parts of
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Trump You're like, you know, he doesn't know how to
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: build something, but he was correct to knock something down, right,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Like I've always thought that, you know, Trump, the disruptor
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: is the necessity, but he may himself not have any
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: good answers on what to put in after you've done
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: the disruption, right, And I think that's always been I
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: think that's the struggle that change agents, whether they're on
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: the left or the right, who want to take some
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: of Trump right but but not be associated with all
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: of Trump. Is that sort of where your head is at.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: Well, take some of Trump. Listen, I think we have
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: to focus on policy. So I mean, for instance, you know,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: there are there are many areas on policy where I agree,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: but I think I have a much better uh like
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: what is in that manner? Tell me what he's doing
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: and style. Well, listen, I'm gonna I'm going to use
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: a California frame here, Chuck, because I'm running in California.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: Should I'm gonna I'm not gonna, you know, go global
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: and judge every single thing going on in the world.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: By the way, I don't think the governor of California
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: needs to needs to have a position on NATO right now.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I agree. I mean, listen, there are lots
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: of policies that will positively impact California that people may
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: not know about. So for instance, under Trump, hud actually
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: came out with a radical new policy on homelessness and
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: funding for homelessness. This is a national policy, but will
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: dramatically impact California in a positive way. I think since
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: they announced it, they've kind of pulled it back and
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: are tweaking it, but just on homelessness. As you know,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: as everyone knows, we lead the nation to homelessness, twenty
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: five percent of the nation's homeless, one hundred and ninety
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: thousand of our brothers and sisters basically living and dying
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: on the street. It's a total moral tragedy. And what
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: HUD said under Trump is that they're going to totally
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: flip the script on the way that funding for homelessness
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: is granted to states. To date, the way it's been
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: done and this is a part of democratic ideology. In
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: many states, and also in California, funding for homelessness has
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: been targeted at what's called permanent housing. Permanent housing is
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: generally a affordable housing unit in an apartment building. The
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: problem is in California that takes ten years to build
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: and cost a million dollars. We can get into why
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: it's insane. The Trump administration flipped that and said, listen,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: instead of eighty percent of the money going to long
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: term permanent housing, eighty percent of the money should go
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: to temporary housing. And I want to give credit to
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: Mayor Matt Mahon, who's a Democrat moderate in San Jose
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: who I really like because he's actually working with Dignity Moves,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: the founder of which is an advisor to me. Dignity
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: Moves is the number one organization in California deploying the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: tiny home communities, and you've probably seen these in various states,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: and other states have done this really well, particularly Texas
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: in Houston and Austin. But essentially, you get a crane
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: and you drop in a small unit that locks from
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: the inside, and you do one hundred, one hundred and
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: fifty of these on a site. Usually the land is
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: donated by a wealthy landowner who can get a tax
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: right off for leasing that land to the city for
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: a dollar a year, can write off the taxes, and
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: then you bring in the services that are needed in
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: that site at mental health, services, security, et cetera. And
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: you triage people who actually can live in a tiny
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: home versus need the mental health system, which unfortunately is
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: more than half of our homeless in California. And the
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: reason that that is opposed by what I would call
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: the homeless industrial complex in California is the set of
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: incentives for the structures and then nonprofits and for you
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: to serve that population are very much oriented to building
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: long term permanent housing. But what we need is to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: get people off the street tomorrow, Chuck, Because in California,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: day one, a homeless person seventeen percenter mentally ill. By
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: day thirty thirty five percenter mentally ill because they have
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: to get on a drug to stay awake, to not
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: get raped or robbed or beaten or stolen from. So
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: that's an example where Trump has it completely right. He
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: just came out with another policy on real estate that
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: I really agree with, what's kind of progressive, which is
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: to ban the huge funds from buying up all the
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: single family homes. That's another example. You know, there are
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: many others. I think that. I think that being generally
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: pro business is a good thing, and in California, California
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: has an inferiority complex about being pro business.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you about that, because I vacillate
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: about California myself, and I sort of I would align
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: myself with the times. It feels overly bureaucratic at times,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: and at the end of the day though it's still
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: the best. It seems to be a great place to
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: build a business, still seems a great place to find
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: a workforce. So you've been a very successful entrepreneur. Do
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: you think you could have been as successful in another state?
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Was there was California. You've had all your success in California.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: You know the state must be doing something right. What
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: are they doing right that you think has helped you succeed?
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Hmm, that's a great question. Well, I did do it
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: in California, so I can't speak to whether I could
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: have done it anywhere else. I've done it in California.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: I have California to thank for lots of things, including
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: my kids and you know, my professional life. So I'm
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: hugely grateful to California, and despite all of our problems,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't live anywhere else. You know. I think anyone
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: who says, though that they've not considered moving out of
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: the state is lying, because even I have. Everyone has.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: But you know, I want to make my life here
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: and help turn the state around. So I'm staying to
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: your point. I made an analogy the other day that
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: that sunshine is to California like old spices to many
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: men's under arms. It's basically just it's covered up all
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: the bad.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: I think if detorizes everything else is what you're saying.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: You know, if we had if we had the year
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: round weather of Seattle and Portland, we would have lost
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: half our people so so, yes, people love living here.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: We have an amazing climate, we have I think the
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: most talented people, industry, geography, to we have all of it.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: It's a great university system.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: A great use.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: I mean both the system right by the way. I
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: think sometimes the UC system is a bit overrated. I
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: say this versus the cal State. You know that aspect.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: I mean that is affordable first gen I mean that's
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: an impressive state university system as well well.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: And we have we have Pat Brown to thank for
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: a lot of these things, you know, Jerry's dad, who
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: was I think, by all accounts a great, great governor,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: and I would give that praise. But here's the problem shock.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: I think when you work in the tech sector or
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: certain aspects of the real estate sector, like I did,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: you have great advantages because because you're not in tech,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: for instance, we don't suffer in tech from a lot
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: of the regulations that impact other real world because you're.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: Still I mean, you're still a youthful industry. In that
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: there was a lot of exemptions given to the tech
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: industry by the state legislature right for years in order
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: to help the.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: Tech indusis yes, yes, quite unfettered and mostly for good reasons.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: And if you've got people in capital, you know you can,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: you know, you can thrive. Having said that, there are
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: many tech companies that are moving out of California for
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: different reasons. But here's the thing. California is a tale
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: of two worlds. If you have money and you work
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: in certain industries, you're doing great. But if you are
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: working poor, working class, middle class, the people we need
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: to focus on you are hurting in California and.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: You're describing you just describe the economy for the entire country.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is the current. This is why everybody,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: this is why the polling shows that people hate this
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: economy because it does feel as if the haves are
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: surviving and in some cases thriving, but they have not
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: to have like there's no rung on the ladder to
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: even grap right now.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: Well, it's very tough and against for California if you
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: look at all the metrics that matter. I mean, despite
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: the fact that we've got sunshine, Hollywood beaches and you
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: can you know, you can go skiing, you know, in
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: the morning one day and being on the beach in
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: the afternoon on the same day. In California, Again, if
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: you're in the seventy three percent of people in the
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: middle working class that think the state's going in the
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: wrong direction, which is what our polling shows and is
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: just sort of common sense. The reason is, and it's
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: in the headlines every day because California is in the
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: bottom of every metric that matters, despite the fact that
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: we're the world's fourth largest economy. So if I hear
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: another person in California who's elected say that we're the
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: fourth largest economy, my head's going to explode. Because education outcomes,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: number one in poverty, number one in homelessness, number one
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: in energy costs, number one in housing costs. There are
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: reasons why, chuck, which we can get into. So it's
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: really a tale of two worlds in California.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: So let's let's talk about that. What you're an advocate
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: of the flat tax.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: How do not actually, I've not actually advocated for a
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: flat tax.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: You haven't, Okay, how would you describe your advocation of
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: a It sounds like a flatter tax is what you're
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: looking for.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: Well, I've not actually I've not actually spoken about tax
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: policy overtly yet. But my view is that if you
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: look at California, you know, we've got the highest marginal
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: rate in the country at thirteen point three percent. And the
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: reality is that in California, half of our people work
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: for small to medium sized companies. The national average a
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: little bit bigger, California a little smaller because we have
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: such what, such huge companies operating California as well, it
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: sort of reduces the average. But half of our people
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: work in small businesses. And small businesses are the engine
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: of that you know, middle class upward mobility, and small
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: businesses that are over tax and over regulated can't can't grow.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: That's the story of California right now. So I think
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: that we need a tax holiday for small businesses for
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: several years. Well I'm not going to put out the
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: specifics now we're thinking about it, but I think I
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: think if you are a small business under one hundred
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: people again, which employ fifty percent of California residents, I
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: think we should dramatically reduce your taxes over the next
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: few years to get things moving again.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: Where do you find look, I'm you know, the the
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: grey Davis's governorship sort of imploded in part because of
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: this massive deficit at the time that had happened, and
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: you know, obviously Enrun was a part of it as well.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: But but there was this budget deficit that seemed impossible
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: to fix some ways. That was Arnold Schwarzenegger's entire goal
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: was to try to figure out how to fix this.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: And then Jerry Brown sort of, you know, became sort
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: of more of a centrist compared to the rest of
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: his party, and that happened. Where do you find the
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: revenue that is going to be lost because being the
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: fourth largest state, that's a huge budget and it is
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: not easy to balance.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, listen, here are the facts. When Newsom was
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: elected seven years ago, the budget for the state of
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: California annually, annually lose two hundred billion dollars. Today, at
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: sixty percent higher, it's three hundred and twenty two billion dollars.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: That all. Is that all since COVID How much of
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: that grew sort of COVID North.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: It's been it's been a it's been a steady increase
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: year after year. Jug it's not it's not been sort
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: of a one year massive pickup. So we've grown sixty
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: percent in our state budget since since twenty nineteen, and
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: we're worse off for it. So, you know, I think
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: that the story of California is that more money doesn't
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: mean less problems. It's actually been more money, more problems.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: That that's a line from a great, great song too.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: So so where do we find Where do we find
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: the money? Listen? There are so many projects, chuck, and
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: I'll throw out a few that are bad ideas that
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: we should stop doing. And there are a whole set
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: of taxes that as governor, I would also put the
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: kebaj on. So here are a couple of the bad ideas.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: The train to nowhere, the pejorative term for the high
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: speed rail project that was really kicked off, you know,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: sort of Newsome has has really promoted. We've spent sixteen
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: billion dollars, We've not laid any track. The project is
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: now budget one hundred and thirty five billion dollars started
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: it I think thirty forty billion dollars and is a
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: complete boondoggle. I mean, by the time that project would
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: come to fruition, we'll have a flying taxis. I mean
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: ask you that should should it be one example?
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: I agree that that boot that thing has just been.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: There are many others there's.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: Been in a perfect world. Is their high speed rail
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: from laed to San Francisco.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: In a perfect world. In a perfect world, Chuck, I'm
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: not sure I can speak to a perfect world.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: All right. How about in your version of California after
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: two terms, would you like to create the conditions that
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: would allow for it to happen or is it just
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: something that government can't afford to do these days?
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: I think I think that twenty twenty seven January, we're firefighting.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, twenty twenty seven January, it's a full court
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: press to just stabilize California. Stabilize the budget, stop the bleeding,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: a series of executive orders, and work with the legislature
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: to work off of a affordability emergent see and enact
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: policies to actually bring down costs on energy, on gas,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: on housing, a whole range of things that we can
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: talk about. I think for twenty forty seven, I think
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: California needs a strategic plan to actually lead in a
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: bunch of areas, including energy, infrastructure, including a plan for
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: water because we're hopefully grow as a population, including growth
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: for technology, and doing all the things to restore the
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: dream for the next generation of kids who are basically
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: moving out of California. The High speed rail project is
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: not in the top few for me.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: I got you so be How are there enough of
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: these projects that you think you can save a significant
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: you know a lot of times these projects. I've done
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: this a long time and I'm not trying to pick
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: on you. You can have some high profile project, but
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: they actually don't add up to it isn't enough money
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: to do some of the cuts that you're going to
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: want to do. Do you think there's enough money there
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: in project cuts this off?
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: Well, I think I think there's enough if you look
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: at several areas and it's not It's not just one.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at the number one line
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: item in the California budget, not surprisingly is healthcare. Okay,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: so it's about one hundred and sixty billion dollars. I mean,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: it's larger than the annual budget of the City of
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: New York. Okay. The next line item.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: Re member General Motors is a healthcare company that makes cars. Right,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: this is health The cost of health care is a
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: is a problem on every level of government or business.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: It's the largest right.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: Just like our federal government is a healthcare organization with
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: an army. So California is not that different. One hundred
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: and sixty billion on healthcare. It's estimated by the federal government.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: And this is not just you know, this is well
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: before Trump that Medicare fraud is at least ten to
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent. Okay, So we suffer from I'm that in
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: California as well. So out of that one hundred and
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: sixty billion, thirty billion of which comes from the California
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: State General Fund, one hundred and thirty billion of which
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: comes from the Feds. There's a huge amount of fraud
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: which we should get to the bottom of. Now, I
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: know that this is a common talking point, but it's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: a real issa fraught an abuse.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: My friend, I've heard waste, fraud and abuse as a phrase,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: I'm sure phrase going back to New.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: Cambridge of course, of course, and it's a.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: Real Bill Clinton in fairness of course, right and advocated it, of.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Course, And it's real. And with AI, with all of
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: the huge some of the risk of AI, we have
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: a real opportunity to sick the right models on our
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: state budget and really get to the bottom of what's
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: going on. And actually I'm going to be putting out
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: some policy and some suggestions on exactly how we do that.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: So I think healthcare is a big area. We've mentioned
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: the trend of nowhere. The train of nowhere right now
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: is about one hundred and twenty billion over the next
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: fifteen years. Because we've spent We've spent sixteen it's going
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: to cost over one hundred and thirty It's a huge
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: amount of money. It's ten to fifteen billion a year.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: The next area is climate taxes chuck. So it's called
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: cap and invest now in California, cap and trade is
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: what it used to be called. Most citizens don't understand
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: what it means. It's been about thirty three billion in
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: taxes on California residents over the last number of years.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: And so the way it works is if you produced
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: energy in California, you get taxed. So if you emit
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: right carbon, carbon emissions get taxed in California uniquely. So
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: if you produce electricity, you refine petroleum, for gas, you
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: name it. Those taxes end up getting passed along to
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: the consumer. So the energy producers have to have to
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: mark up their prices to the Cali Fournia customer. They
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: don't eat it, they mark it up just like it's
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: like a tariff. And so in California. Our average gas
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: if you're at ninety one unleaded, if you drive a
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: gas powered car, you're paying five dollars if you're lucky,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: maybe five to fifty six dollars in a ritzy town.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: If you're in eighty nine unleaded, you're paying four four fifty. Right,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: my mom in Boston pays to eighty nine and north
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: of Boston, and so that dollar and a half extra
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: is pure tax. And we also have a custom fuel mix,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: two seasons of a custom fuel mix that our refiners
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: have to refine, which is state impost. Northern State does
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: this check. None of the other forty nine states have
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: a custom fuel mix. So all of these things they're
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: taxes and they get imposed on our citizens, and we can,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: we can, and those there are many examples. We've also, Chuck,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: we've added fifty thousand full time workers in California over
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: the News administration. So we started at about two hundred
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: and ten thousand. Now we're about two hundred and sixty
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: thousand full time workers in California, not including contractors. We're
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: spending huge amounts of money on people in the keyboard
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: economy when we have technology that can help do the
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: work I'm not saying I would mass fire people, okay,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: but when people come to the point where they're going
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: to leave the workforce or not performing, we shouldn't backfill
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: that role. We should actually start reducing the size of
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: the state government. It's it's insane.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about your political identity. Why aren't you running
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: as an independent? You've not really made a case to
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: me that you're a Republican. And I don't mean that
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: as a pejorative or anything, but sort of where today's
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: republic in it look for good or for bad. Both
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: parties to me are defined more by their bases to
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: a large majority of people than they are by their
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: different instant right I I grew up in a world
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: I think one of our problems is that there's no
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: we don't have ideological diversity within the two parties like
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: we did when you and I were growing up. There
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: were conservative Democrats, liberal Democrats, there were liberal Republicans and
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: conservative Republicans. You know. You let me ask the social questions,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: because ultimately that has been the distinguishing characteristic of the
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: California Republican over the years. Sort of a low tax,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: you know, fiscal conservative, but social liberal. Is that how
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: you would describe yourself.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: I'd say that I'm a radical moderate marriage I'm I'm
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: quoting Dan when I said I love that.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: I know Dan a little bit. I was once kind
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: of uh, somebody called me a radical centrist and I
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: said thank you, and they didn't mean it as a
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: as a compliment. But where are you on the on
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: the sort of those you know, those those sure those
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: key social issues that you know, for some people become
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: non starters, right guns, abortion, same sex.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: Marriage, Okay, let's see same sex marriage. People should marry
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: who they love. I mean, I think that's I think
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: we're way beyond that. I hope, and actually, in my experience, Chuck,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: the Republicans that I meet, and I actually went to
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: my first two state conventions March in September. I had
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: never gone to a convention of any party, and the
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: people I met were very accepting of people at gay straight.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter. Listen on the subject of abortion, you know,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: deeply personal and moral issue. I have very strong personally
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: held beliefs. But we have settled law in California which
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: I would strongly support. Women have reproductive freedom in California.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: I would support that because it's the law, and I
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: have many friends in the pro life community who have
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: very strong conviction. Is what the governor in California can
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: do on that subject is focus on where we can
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: all agree, which is which I think is parental notification
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: if a child you know, under each child is pregnant,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: counseling and support for healthy outcomes, safe pregnancy, adoption, if
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: if if a kid is you know can be led
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: down that path. But I support women's rights under the law.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: In terms of guns, I'm a gun owner. I sportshoot.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: I support Second Amendment rights. I think that California has
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: the strictest gun laws on the books, and they are enforced.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: I know that as a gun owner going through the
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: process of owning and training.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think their good laws? Would you get rid
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: of any of them? Are? Are you comfortable with what's
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: on the books?
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: I think that's an area where the majority of Californians
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: support the laws that are on the books.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: You worded that very much like the politician John Well.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: I think it's I think it's sir. I have I
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: have personal beliefs, but as an elected official, you've got it.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: You've got you you sorry right hand you take another.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that. I always remind people weren't a representative democracy,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: right that ultimately that was the design that our founders had,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: which is, you know, and there's a fine line, and
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: let me ask you, you know, can you is there
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: an issue where you would go against the majority in
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: your state?
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: And is any issue? Yeah, an issue where I'd go
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: against the majority of my state. Well, listen, I'll give
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: you one. It's very present and just happened Prop fifty
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: so participating law. Yeah. Prop fifty past overwhelmingly sixty five percent.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: So when Prop fifty was bubbling, I came out very
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: strongly against it on my podcast as a no on fifty,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: meaning against the Jerry manderin just permit me, I'll speak
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: for one minute on this. We actually did a documentary
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: called the Big Rig, and we put that out on
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: State of Gold and I interviewed, I sat down with
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: twenty different leaders across the state, experts and redistricting and politicians,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: you name it. And it was a classic example of
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: what to me was a power grab in the name
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: of fighting Trump. And I opposed what happened in Texas.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: You know, some Republicans say, oh, well, Texas is different
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: to me. De facto, when the majority party bludgeons the
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: minority party to death, it's bad Texas started then California.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: By the way, the Democrats that were pro Prop fifty
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: raised one hundred and twenty million dollars, spent a little
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: bit more than the majority of it, but have that
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: money in the coffers to do what they want to
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: do for the next campaign, and we spawned all kinds
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: of bad behavior across the country. Thankfully, there are some
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: Republican legislators and leaders resisting doing that as well. I
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: think it's bad for democracy, and so that's an example
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: where I came out and made my case, which is
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: counter to what most people in California think. But how
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: will democrats feel when Republicans take control of the state,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: which will happen at some point in California, hopefully soon.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: How will Republicans treat Democrats in California? And I think
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: we should be a shining beacon of a constitutional, functioning
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: democracy in California, not a hack job.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: I was one of those I didn't understand. I understood
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: the political decision that California Democrats made, Okay, I understood
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: the political argument. The problem I had is, if you
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: believe voters are being disenfranchised in Texas, why is the
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: answer to disenfranchised voters in another state? The principle of
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: it sort of bothered me. And I understand that everything
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: you know, fortunately too much of politics is a zero
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: sum game to people, right, you know, so and so wins,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: then we lose, we lose, we win and they lose.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: And it's like, you know, the law of unattended consequences
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: always bite you, always bite you in the you know where.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: But let me ask you a question, because you ask
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: me why I'm not an independent, I want to answer
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: the question directly because it's a really good question. There
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: actually is an independent running named Ethan Penner who's a good,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: smart guy and got some interesting ideas. Just there's no
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: independent party, Chuck, there's no independent.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: Party, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Look, the beauty of the top two.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: Let me answer, though, was to make it so you
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: didn't have to join a party.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: Well, well, okay, but that's not the reality. I think.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: I think that people organize around parties still in America,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: and they organize around two parties, and I think it's
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: a long way off before we have an independent party.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: In California or in the nation, and there's a lot
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: of things that need to happen right to set the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: stage for that. We have a lot of things to
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: sort out, Chuck, don't we and our body politic before
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: that can happen. But for me, I'm an old school Republican.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: I describe myself more as a Reagan Republican, which is
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: looking at government very skeptically and what is the role
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: of government? What can government really be good at? Is
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: an orientation around freedom and property rights. It's a respect
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: for business being a prime engine of opportunity creation in society.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: It's those kinds of things. And I think if you
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: look in California at where the better ideas are for
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: turning the state around, it's more on the Republican side
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: than the Democrat side. And again I'm not in this
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: to bash Democrats. Most of my family are Democrats. They've
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: all come out saying, John, how could you? How could
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: you be a Republican? Trump? Trump? Trump? And what I
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: tell them is put Trump aside. California's problems are not
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: because of Trump. This is an own goal in California.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm a Republican really based on policy and philosophy.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about though, the result of Prop fifty. I
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: actually didn't think it was going to be the blowout
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: at first, right, and then you saw I said, oh boy,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: this turned into a Trump referendum, right. And the minute
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: it turned into a Trump referendum, it was over.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: I'm just look, I'm just being honest with you. Campaign
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in a blue state. You know, I
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: don't see the path for any I say this. I
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: don't know how a Republican wins statewide in this political
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: environment with Donald Trump and the White House.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: Why am I wrong? Well, we'll see. I understand that skepticism.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: I think it's it's warranted, to be honest, And the
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: truth is that the Republican Party in California historically, in
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: the recent history, has not done itself the favors, you know,
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: running on certain cultural issues versus running on policy, running
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: by the.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: Identity crisis, right like Arnold Schwarzenegger is the most successful
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: Republican governor arguably since Ronald Reagan. And good luck finding
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: a Republican that wants to emulate Arnold Swarzenegger these days.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, because people have gone to their corners and
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: to be honest. Though I love Arnold, I mean I
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: love him as a guy and man, but there's certain
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: policies that have led us in the wrong direction. I
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: mentioned the climate regime is his policy, right, Well, he's
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: the one who you know. I think he figured out
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: early on he wanted to be known as a climate governor.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. We
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: have the best environmental laws on the books of any state.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: We should enforce them. The environmental movement started here in
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: the seventies. That was a good thing. The problem is
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: it was perverted and hijacked in law to facto to
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: block a lot of good things, a lot of growth
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: and housing and energy production that we need while we
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: figure out how to protect the environment. So I think
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: it kind of got perverted unintentionally. But you ask, how
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: do you win? You know, they're credible polls Chuck from
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: from mid to late last year that showed that half
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: of the state would vote for the right kind of
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: Republican I believe.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: And people always say it's that I could always get
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: you that poll result because people want to always want
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: to come across as reasonable, but you know, they do
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: end up voting the same way that they vote seventy
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: five percent of the time.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: Well, we'll see. I think in California it's darkest before
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: the dawn. I think that if you my grammar research,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: we had lots of polling. The grammar research is so
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: much frustration, so much disaffection. Yeah, And I think the
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: way this is going to game out on the left
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: or on the Democratic side, I really think the energy
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: is more further left. I think it's more in the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: Katie Porter wing than others. Right, And there's different characters,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: and I.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: Don't know where you go. I mean, it's funny you
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: bring that up. If Rick Caruso gets in this race,
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people assume we're Caruso
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: is getting in this race. He's the former Republican now
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: running as a Democrat. Yeah.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: Well so he's a very successful guy. Love his real
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: estate projects as a consumer. But Chuck, that game has
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: been played in California before we had we had, you know,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: someone named Whitman, we had someone named Huffington. We've had billionaires.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: That's not me. I mean I get up early in
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: the morning and I change diapers, and I do dishes,
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: and I drive kids to school. And yes, I've been successful,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: but I live in a nice neighborhood in a fairly
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: regular house, and I'm not that guy. I'm I'm in
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: the world, Okay. I don't think a billionaire buys his
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: or her way into the election in California. I don't
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: think that's the California style, the California way.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: It worked, asked Alceecki.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: And there's Alcheckie. Yeah, there's Alcheckie, who was actually a
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: friend of my dad's, funny enough, way back in the day.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing I think that I think to
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: your point, if you look at the Emerson polls, which
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: are most often quoted and cited in California, last one
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: showed thirty one percent undecided, the one before that forty
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: four percent undecided. It's wide open. It's completely wide open,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: and I think people want something different. A lot of
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: the Democrats are how dold I put this politely, been
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: in politics a long time.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, careers, Yeah, no, no, no.
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: And the two Republicans who were running. I like them
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: both as men. I like Steve and I like Chad.
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: I've had them on my podcast, spen all the time
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: with them. They're good men. I don't think either has
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: the right background to turn the state around.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: I want to close with Silicon Valley, and it goes
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: to what I think is going to be a struggle
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: for you if you win, which is, on one hand,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: I think you want to make it easier to do
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: business in California. On the other hand, I think there's
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of people who think the tech companies have
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: too much free reign right and that actually, you know,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: while generally there might be too much red tape for
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: the average person starting a smaller, mid size business, I
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: could argue there's not enough red tape and enough guardrails
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: with Silicon Valley, given look at what social media did
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: to society and now there's very few guardrails on AI.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: I struggle with this because I want to see advancement
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: and I also see, well, you can't trust them without
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: some sort of minder there. Where are you on you
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: think Silicon Valley has been regulated enough?
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: Well, I think that California.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: Gave away my bias there on that one. I did,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: and it's part of it is to sort of spark
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: a conversation for what it's worth. But it is and
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: I think I'm not alone here, right There's people that
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: think there's too much regulation and big tech has too
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: much power.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, big tech is also a huge driver for innovation, employment,
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: wealth building, and God help us, we need to keep
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: that in California. There's a lot of movement outside of California.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: You can listen. You can run a tech company from
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: anywhere in the world. You can run it from the mountains,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: you can run it from the beach, you can run
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: it from anywhere. So California needs to remain the most
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: welcoming and the most positive place for tech companies of
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: all sizes to want to do business. If you look
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: at the AI business, Chuck, one of the singular reasons
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: that Dan Lurie has been able to tell a comeback
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: story in San Francisco is because of AI, because of
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: the employment, because of the leases that have been signed
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: in downtown, to bring human beings back into the city
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: to actually be a part of the tax base. So
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: God bless AI and God bless the tech industry. California
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: has passed AI legislation. California has been one of the
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: states to pioneer passing legislation that provides some guardrails to
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: AI that the rest of the nation is actually modeling.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: Of course, Trump now is threatening to have federal legislation
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: that stomps down all of this regulation. We've got to
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: find a happy medium. I do think they're legitimate concerns
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: on you know, for human beings and for kids about
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: technology and AI. But here's where I generally rest, Chuck.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: And I'll use the analogy of the Big Gulp in Bloomberg.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: You remember the Yeah, you remember that.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: I allow that it's the Trump Health secretary that seems
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: to be anti big Gulp these days. I mean, I'm
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: sort of like left his right right.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: And I love that part. I love that part of
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: rfk's agenda. I love getting rid of the red dye
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: number eight, and I love copying more of what Europe
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: does in a good way when it comes to our
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: supply chain for food. I also believe in science, okay,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: and and and and and you know, in the right vaccine.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: So so I think there's a balanced Chuck. But I
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: am I am an anti nanny state guy. I do
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: not believe that the government should be telling the private
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: sector and individual people how to do what they do.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: In general, but yes, some basic guardrails, So.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: Let me I'm just let me throwing out there banning
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: social media for under sixteen year olds? Would you sign
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: that legislation?
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: Well, listen, Australia did it. I think it's a joke
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: because there are so many workarounds to get around that life.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: So I think, to facto it's a joke. You can
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: waive that kind of law round say you're doing something.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, Chuck, It comes down
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: to are parents involved in their kids' lives. So, for instance,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: my kids didn't have phones until they were thirteen, and
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: the reason they got it is because they were taking
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: the train to school and needed a way to communicate. Okay,
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: they but all their friends had phones starting at god
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: knows what it. So I think parents need to get
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: involved with their kids and parent them and that's really
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: where we should we should focus, as opposed to the
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: government telling parents or children when to have technology.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: Well, I hear you there, but we did put age
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: limit on smoking and if we've decided this is bad,
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: we think this is bad for mental health of young brains,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: and so it is. Is there any movement for you?
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: But again, here's the thing. These A pack of cigarettes, okay,
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: is readily accessible for any kid who can get someone
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: to sneak it and buy it and whatever number of bucks.
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: I don't buy cigarettes. I'm not sure what they cost
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: per pack these days. A piece of technology that we're
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: talking about, an Apple watch or a phone, is a
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: considered purchase for the vast majority of people in California.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: So it's not like kids are running around at a
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: young age buying these technologies and putting them in their
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: palm or on their wrists. So I really think it
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: comes down to parents being smart and involved.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: Would you ban them in public schools?
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: Well, I think I don't believe in universal bands like this.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: I think it's a good idea, though. What certain school
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: districts have started to do always say that you cannot
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: have your phone, uh, you know, in your hand or
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: In my kid's school had pouches at the beginning of
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: the class, and you put your phone in your pouch
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: and you weren't until you know, and then you sat down.
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: Right, It's like it's like it's what government officials do
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: if they go into a secure site.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: So skiff exactly.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: I think these kinds of ideas are good. I think
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: they they should be locally determined. I don't believe in
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: the state of California, imposing things like that on school
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: districts or kids or parents.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this. There's
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: a wealth tax coming on the ballot.
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: Huh, there certainly is.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: I imagine it. I know where you stand on this.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: It's probably going to be popular. So how do you
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: convince somebody who says, yeah, but you know what, you
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: don't pay enough taxes. You guys have all the loopholes
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: you have this or that. It's it's tough being a
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: defender of the quote wealthy on this right, we know
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: the pitchforks have been sharpened, and the pitchforks are in
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: both parties you and have. I mean, this is not
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: a just on the left thing. This is this is
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: the most interesting divide in America I think is this
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: Is this a bit of the on the socioeconomic front.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: Make the case to a working class person that the
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: wealth tax is a bad idea.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm against all new taxes, and in California, including this, this,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: this billionaire tax in California, which I know this happens
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: in other states. Shock there is a hidden system of
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: what are called special funds. So a county or the
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: state will say, hey, we have a huge need, for example,
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: a big beautiful bill cut healthcare spending. We want to
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: initiate a new tax, a sales tax. It's a tenth
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: of a percent. You're not going to notice it. It's
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: going to it's gonna accrue the county five hundred million
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: dollars over the next four years, and we're going to
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: use that money to pay for healthcare. What happens that
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: money is raised and it is shifted into the general
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: fund of the county or the state to be spent
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: on anything. Chuck, This is the bait and switch that
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: happens with taxpayers, and we're already over taxed. This is
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: like a slippery slope. It's lots of other ideas of
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: taking more money from taxpayers, giving it to government to
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: spend on dumb shit or stuff that doesn't work. That's
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: my argument.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: If you get elected, you know you're going to be
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: dealing with the Democratic legislature, perhaps a supermajority. But then again,
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: if you get elected, I probably mean so, it wouldn't
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: a super majority. I think this is assuming you make
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: it into the top two. It's tough to be bipartisan
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: these days. How would you do it.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, I'll give a quick anecdote from Willie Brown,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: who I sat down with from my podcast last July.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: This is prior to commodigetting out.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: Out of Grade's nobody more fun to talk to. I
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: think he's all the five. I think he's one of
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: the five most accomplished politicians in the twentieth century. I mean,
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: maybe right. The fact that he stayed Speaker of the
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: House with the party change. Tell me another leader that
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: could pull that off. Well.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: Actually, he told the story that when he was elected Speaker,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: more Republicans voted him in than Democrats, which you may
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: know because you're such a student of politics.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: Such a great story. A movie should be made about it.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 2: But anyways, it's a great story. And there are plenty
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: of areas of disagreement I might have with Willie Brown
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: down in policies in California. But I asked him, what's
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: the biggest lesson you learned when you were a mayor
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: or the speaker? And he tugged his ear and he said,
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: I listened, and he said, I was just as likely
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: to have dinner into Larry, which is, you know, farm
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: country here in California as I was San Francisco. I
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: spent time with people. I formed relationships with people, and
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: I cut deals with people. And to quote Jerry Brown,
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: who I have plenty of policy disagreements with, he said,
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: you know, if you want to make a Canu goo straight,
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: sometimes you paddle on the left and sometimes you paddle
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: on the right. Okay, I'm quoting two Democrats. What I
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: would say is that you got to be practical. You
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: got to cut deals. But sometimes you stand on principle.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: Sometimes you use executive order, sometimes you use the bully pulpit.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: Sometimes you negotiate. But we got to do it together, Chuck,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: there's only one way.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: Well, I think we're all trying to figure out if
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: pragmatism isn't it is allowed anymore in our politics. Can't
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: say that it gets punished by the political basis, that's
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: for sure. Hey, John, it's good to get to know you.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: I appreciate Thank you very much, Chuck.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: All right, I hope you enjoyed that conversation. And is
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: just so you know, I think I'm going to have
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: Eric Swawell on UH fairly soon and we'll talk there.
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: And I have a feeling that's going to be new
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: candidates chopping in this race more than you may realize
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: coming forward this there's still something about this California gubernatorial race.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to say something that that that a
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: version of me might have called myself lazy in saying this,
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: but I believe it too. There's a lack of star
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: power in this governor's race right now. Uh, no disrespect
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: to Swallwell, to mister Slavitt, to to mister Hilton on
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: the right, or or or Katie Porter, but you just
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: sort of like, is there you know, after eight years
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: of Jerry Brown and eight years at Gavin Newsome, and
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: before that it was five years of Arnold Swarzenegger, these
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: are large, These became larger than life political figures. You know,
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: is anybody in this group ready to fill that suit,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: right or whatever you want to call it? So I'm
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: convinced there are more more shoes, more candidate shoes to drop.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: That filing deadline still a couple months away, so we've
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: got plenty of time. All right, It is Wednesday, which
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: means I'm bringing back the top five lists to top five,
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: top to I promise most of my top five lists
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: are going to be you know, sometimes there'll be politically related,
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: top five senatec pickups, maybe top five states that could
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: flip on governor's races, and I'll do all of that,
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: and that's coming up, and I'll start back in on
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: that in the next couple of weeks. But man, I
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: got I got orange and green fever, all right. I
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: am all about the U right now. I am all
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: about the Hurricanes. You know, those of you that know
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: me know college football is level of importance in my
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: life is way too by. Okay, it's probably a borderline sickness.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: I fully, I fully do that. So but I feel
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: like I have one more opportunity to be totally a
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: Cane's homer here, use my top five lists to talk
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: about something that's quite important to people that care about
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: Miami Hurricanes football. And I'd like to think this should
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: matter a little bit to even folks care about college football,
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: and that is where does this Miami team should they
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: win the national title and upset Indiana. And apparently everybody
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: thinks Indiana is going to win and win big? Is
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: that is the pointspread keeps going up. Apparently nobody is
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: using their own eyes to see how the Miami Hurricanes
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: football team has performed but I understand the you know,
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: those that think Indian is gonna blow out Miami probably
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: thought Oregon and Alabama were national title contenders. Memo to South,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: I never thought they were national title contenders. But I digress.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: So where would this twenty twenty five team fit Because
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: if this team wins a national title, they will do
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: something that a Miami Hurricane national title team has never done,
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: that have won a national title with two losses. Miami
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: has had five national titles, famously, three of them were
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: undefeated seasons, two of them were one loss seasons, and
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: it is so it is it is one of those
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: that it's unusual for them to do two. Of course,
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: in this playoff format, this is now going to become
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: probably more common, not less common. We will have more
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 1: and more two loss champions. Question is how many? You
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: know how many over time? But I think you're going
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: to see probably half this field will be one los
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: you know, half of them will be undefeated, sir one
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: loss ers, probably a lot more one lossers than undefeated,
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: and about half the field will be two losses. If
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: it gets to twenty four, we'll have some three loss
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: teams sneak in there. But I'm not sure three loss
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: teams will ever make it into the national title. So
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: where do you rank them? Right? Look, the number one
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: all time Miami Hurricanes national title team is the one
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: that many considered the greatest college football team of all time,
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: and that is the two thousand and one Miami Hurricanes.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: This is a team that had a running back room
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: that included at least one Hall of Famer for sure,
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: and Frank Gore. Arguably Clinton Portis is still going to
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: get considered, and he had Willis McGahee who was a
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: first round draft pick. It was just as deep of
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: a room. You had a wide receiver tandem in Andre Johnson,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: who ends up who should be in the Hall of Fame.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: I think he just got into the Hall of Fame,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: had av It just was something. I think thirty eight
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: guys on that team ended up in the NFL some
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: absurd number like that. It was probably the most talented
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: team Miami ever had, and in hindsight, it was a
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: team that coached themselves. No offense to Larry Coker. Look,
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: he was the offensive coordinator turned head coach after Butch
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: Davis left for the pros the year before. And in
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: some ways it's a disappointing team. While this team won
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: the national title. This this is a team that arguably
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: should have gotten to play for the national title the
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: year before but didn't due to a bizarre computer glitch,
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: and lost a national title the next year due to
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: a questionable pass interference call against Ohio State. The point
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: is that three year entity there. There's nothing like it.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: So that's what to me, why that team trump's LSU
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: when you're trying to compare LSU twenty nineteen. The other
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: team that is thought of is one of the greatest.
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: And this is why, even if Indiana wins the whole thing,
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: sixteen and OH is impressive, don't get me wrong, but
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think the lack of NFL talent compared to
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: the Miami twenty oh one team and the LSU twenty
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: nineteen team, to me, is the differentiator. Sixteens and oh
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: is impressive. They deserve to be in one of the
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: five all time greatest, so I'm going to give them that.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: But I don't think they cracked the top two conversation
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: between Miami oh one and LSU nineteen, So going back
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: to my Miami top five. So that's we know the
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: two thousand and one team is number one, So what's
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: number two? Well, the number two teams Jimmy Johnson's loan
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: national title team. That was the eighty seven national title team.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: This is the team they went twelve and oh this
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: was This was the year after the infamous fatigues deplaning
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl with Jerome Brown and that incredible
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: defensive line that they had there. To this day, how
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: Miami lost that game to Penn State is beyond me.
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: Had Vinnie Testeverdi just handed the ball off once to
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: Alonzo Highsmith inside the ten and that final drive Miami
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: scores wins a game, and that eighty six team is
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: considered one of the greatest of all time. And I'm
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: going to put a pin in that eighty sixteen because
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about them in what if Miami
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't win the National title conversation. So the number two
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: team of all times at eighty seven Miami National Title
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: team twelve and zero. I was the first National title
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: game I got to attend to watch them win in person,
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: the eighty three to one. I was not there in person.
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: My father wanted to watch it at home, so we
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: sold our tickets. We actually drove to the Orange Bowl
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: to sell to scalt the tickets. My fifty three year
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: old self is going, what are you doing?
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 3: Dad?
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: Why did we not go to that game? But I,
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: you know, the twelve year old version of me, I
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: wasn't in charge. He was in charge, so we didn't go.
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: So they're number two, and you know, it's historical status.
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: This is when people think of the U. This is
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: the team. The eighty seven team is the U. It's
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: Michael Irvin, it's Jimmy Johnson, this is the U. Okay,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: that's that team. Number three is the nineteen ninety one
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: twelve and OHO team. It's a team that had to
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: share a national title, if you with washing the undefeated
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: Washington Huskies. This was among the results that sort of
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: after it was two years in a row that we
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: had split national titles. Nineteen ninety the national title was
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: split between Colorado and Georgia Tech, and in nineteen ninety
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: one the title was split between Miami and Washington. And
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: that's when everybody's like, we've got to get rid of this.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: We've got to have some system that at least lets
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: the two best teams play each other. So let's have
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: at it, right and you talked to him. I have
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: friends in Seattle who argued this day that that Washington
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: team would have easily handled Miami, and of course I
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: think the opposite. But it was a that was that
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: was Miami, the program, that was the machine, that was
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: the team that just sort of couldn't you know, they
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: just it was never flashy. It was this Dennis Erickson offense,
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: which was kind of unique. It was a one back system.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: And Gino Tretta, who won the Heisman Trophy that year,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: was just make surely won the Heisman Trophy the year after.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: But he was he just was such a great point
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: guard quarterback. I don't house to describe it, but that's
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: and he knew this offense better than anybody else. The
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: number four all time teams one I've already referenced. It's
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighty three, eleven on one team. You know, I'll
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: never forget in something. Stand when my father and I
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: we were watching the Florida we played the Miami lost
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: its first game of the season that year to Florida.
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: We got killed. Well it's twenty eight to three, and
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: I remember my dad saying is And at the time
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: I thought he was just giving me hope and he says, no, no, no,
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: this Bernie Cosar. Because we started this freshman quarterback named
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: Bernie Cosar. He said, this guy's going to be great.
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he made some amazing passes, balls
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: were dropped. This is going to be an interesting season. Well,
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: guess what. We didn't lose another game. And this is
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: of course, I referenced this the other day. The last
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: time Miami was an underdog playing for the national title
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: in their home stadium, they were facing a team whose
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: schools colors were red and white, and it was the
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: Nebraska team. They were double digit favorites. Maybe one of
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: the greatest college football championship games of all time, thirty
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: one to thirty Tom Osbourne. Ever, the competitor goes for
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: two rather than the tie. But you know what wouldn't
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: have mattered if he'd gone for the tie. Bernie Cosar
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: had forty five seconds left when we got the ball back.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: We were winning that game. He'd had driven us down
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: the field to get the winning field goal. I never
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: I have no doubt in my mind. And that brings
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: me to number five. If Miami wins, I think this
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: team will go there because it will be the resurrection team.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: It will be the team that brought Miami back, and
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: it will be the team that had to beat more
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: great teams than any other national title team ever. If
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: Miami beats Indiana, they'll have beaten number one Indiana, number two,
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, number six, Old Miss, number seven, Texas A,
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: and m oh Let's not forget Notre Dame. They will
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: have won three SEC games, beaten three different SEC opponents.
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: They'll have beaten two different Big ten opponents. Obviously, they
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: didn't win the ah CC because of the bizarre diebreaker rules,
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: which would always is going to be an awkward, by
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: the way comment under this team, but it is. I
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: do think when you look, there is no national title
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 1: team that will have had to deal with the gauntlet.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this is going to be the
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: new normal, right going through a gauntlet now is the
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 1: only way you're gonna win a national title. You're gonna
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: have to beat three or two. But you know, in
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: some ways, Indiana had to beat Ohio State to get
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: its by You're gonna need to win to defeat three
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: great Top ten teams to win a national title. Now,
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season, that's just something that
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: the system didn't force that to happen before now, so
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: that's why it is unique. But I'm going to put
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: that team now if they lose. I do think this
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: team is going to go into the conversation with the
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: eighty six team and the two thousand and two team
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: and the two thousand team, three three other Miami teams
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: that arguably had the most talent of anybody in the
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: country but somehow didn't win the national title either they
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 1: weren't allowed to play for it a computer glitch. In
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: two thousand, a weird flag is thrown, and like in
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: two thousand for the two thousand and three Fiesta Bowl,
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: or they run into the Hallmark movie that is Fernando Mendoza.
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 1: But there you go. If my this Miami team wins,
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: I will put them as our fifth, which means it's
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: over and above the eighty nine team. So it would
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 1: you know, it would bump one. You know. The eighty
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 1: nine team is sort of, you know, the the least celebrated,
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: and that's probably not fair. This was Craig Erickson was
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. It's the least celebrated, and yet in some
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: ways it's it When you look at that roster, it
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 1: was just as deep with NFL talent as the eighty
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: seven team, the ninety one team, the ninety two team,
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 1: or the one team. All right, enough of that, Let's
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 1: do some Q and A from you, and I will
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: limit the college football after this. You just gotta you,
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: gotta give me one more week. Man. They actually made
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: the next all of my bloviating about the Hurricanes. And
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: what's funny is I've gotten some emails from some of
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: you who I think could have given two shits about
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: college football before starting listening to my podcast, and you
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: now become weirdly invested. Thank you. I really appreciate it.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: You've sent some incredible notes, and it's so clear some
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: of you you you seem to care because you know
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: I care, and I know you really don't care, but
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: that means something. So thank you, and let me know
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: when I should be rooting for your teams. I will
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: do that for you, I promise. All Right, let's go
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 1: to some Q and A. Some ass chuck ass chuck,
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: all right, Adam from DC Rights listening to you discuss
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 1: Super Pac money and negative ads. I'm sure I am
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: naive and I have had the had this thought for
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 1: a while, but in today's climate, what a candidate gain
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: any traction by just saying I will only talk about
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: me and I'm not going to do negative ads. I've
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: often thought doing so would be a breakthrough. Adam from
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: DC and sticking with your college football theme, fire up chips, right, Look,
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 1: you know you would hope that this would work. But
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: there's a reason negative ads. No. Everybody says they hate
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: negative ads. Everybody says they don't want negative ads, and
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 1: yet negative ads work. Right. Just think about how social
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: media works on your brain. Think about how if you've
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 1: ever had a performance review from a boss and they've
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: told you nine things you do well, one thing that
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: you can work on, and five more things that they
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: love what you do. What's the one thing you're going
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: to remember the negative? It's the humans. It's just the
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 1: human brain. You know. We will process information. We will
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 1: remember something in a negative context more than we'll remember
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: something in a positive time. Text do I wish we
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: were different than that? I do. Now here's what I
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: would say to sort of take your idea and massage
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: it a little bit. I think the candidate that is
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 1: willing to do their own attack ads and not use
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 1: third party nonsense that might be an interesting game changer,
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 1: you know, So say, look, here's I'm going to respond
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: to it. I look, my opponent is saying some ridiculous stuff.
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: Normally this is when you have some dark money group
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 1: from Americans for Loving America, paid for by Americans for
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: Loving America, who will tell you what a creeper, terrible person,
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: so and so it is. Here's what I'm going to
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: tell you. My opponent's not a terrible person. They just
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 1: have terrible ideas. And let me tell you why this
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 1: idea is terrible. Point being is, I do think there
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 1: is upside to owning your message, whether it's positive or negative.
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: Outsourcing negative I think is something that's that pays fewer
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: and fewer dividends over time. And believe it or not,
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 1: if you really want a message to penetrate about your
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 1: political opponent, then have the guts to do it yourself.
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 1: And you're probably going to get more traction if you're
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: willing to do it yourself, because actually you'll get some
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: earned media going, Hey, it's kind of unusual, but at
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: least this person's standing by their own negative ads. I mean,
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: how many times do you see this construction of a
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: negative ad where they'll have, you know, some anonymous voiceover say,
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: you know.
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 4: John SCHMENGHI does nothing but absorb special interest money, and
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 4: then all of a sudden, Hi, I'm Jane Doe, and
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 4: are you tired of all.
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 1: This Washington nonsense? You're like, wait a minute, didn't you
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 1: just create Washington nonsense with your terrible TV at you know?
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 1: So that's but I think I do think maybe more
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 1: authenticity in how and how your negative message is delivered
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: might actually pay more dividends, and might be more realistic
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: and actually might actually cut down on the personalizing of
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 1: the negativity so much. But I'm not there on the
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 1: larger idea that you have that somehow just people that
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 1: have taken I'm not going to do this. I'm not
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 1: going to do that. Your opponents will. Voters claim they
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: like it, but they never reward the candidate who does it.
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 1: Next question comes from Mike Vera, and he asks do
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 1: you think more traditional Republicans are missing a chance to
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: push back on Trump and articulate a clear alternative vision
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: for the party, one that rejects maga's reckless forign policy,
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 1: self enrichment, and big government impulses. Could someone stand up
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 1: for the popular parts while denouncing the rest in Bill
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 1: Womenham for twenty twenty eight. Also, what if Bobby Boden
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: had left FSU for Alabama in the eighties or nineties,
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 1: how might that have reshaped college football? That's a fun one.
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 1: If I'll get to the college football in a second.
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: So this actually this question, and I'm glad I have
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: it in here because it dovetails with my with the
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 1: opening of this podcast for this episode. So I don't
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 1: think you can do it yet, what you're suggesting, but
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 1: I do think the appetite for this among Republicans could
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 1: be greater if Democrats sweep the midterms. I think if
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats sweep the midterms, there is going to be a
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 1: belief that maybe it's time for an alternative to Mega.
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe Mega has punched itself out, maybe this is too
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 1: exhausted and so, but you also get at something else.
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do think that a
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: successful pivot from Trump can't be backwards. You can't say
• 2:03:52
  Speaker 1: we need to restore return. That's not what voters know.
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 1: Voters wanted. Look, they voted for Trump's disruption in twenty sixteen.
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: They brought him back because they didn't like what Biden did.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily means they loved what Trump did either,
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 1: but what they did want was was disruption, not restoration.
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 1: So I think the first successful post Mega post Trump
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 1: message will be similar to how you outline it, which
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 1: is I don't think you know, which is sort of
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: like you know, Donald Trump when he came down that
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 1: escalator was a breath of fresh air that the conservative
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 1: movement needed. But like any political movement, it's in over
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 1: its head on some things, and it's celebrating some things
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: that are just not good for the country, like this
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 1: reckless foreign policy. You know, while I liked the president's disruption,
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 1: I didn't like the self enrichment. I think you can
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 1: if you if, because you're still going to have a
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 1: substantial number of base Republican voters or are not going
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: to be ready to outright reject the last twelve years
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 1: of MEGA, but they're going to look for somebody who
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 1: is respectful of the MEGA movement but ready to ready
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: to go forward or turn the page in some form
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: or another. So I do think in twenty eight now,
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 1: I actually think your advice should be what it's what
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 1: I would do if I were John Cornyn. But he's
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 1: kind of stuck in a primary at the moment. It's
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 1: what I think about doing if I were Dan Sullivan
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 1: in Alaska and he's I'm curious, you know, if a
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 1: Republican chooses to go down that road, is Trump going
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 1: to punish him? I am in search of the twenty
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 1: six Republican that attempts to triangulate Trump a little bit
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 1: versus trying so too hard to you know, hug Trump.
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 1: Like in theory, Cornyn has the resume to do it,
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 1: but he is so in need of Trump to to
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: to potentially get him out of this Ken Paxton box
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 1: that he that he's not ready to implement it. And
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 1: yet the you know, this is where Cornyn's in such
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: a such a box, right, you know, the most vulnerable
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: part of Ken Paxton is his corruption. But how do
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 1: you separate Paxton corruption from Trump corruption? And it's you know,
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 1: I can't wait to hear what John Cornyn has to
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 1: say about Republican politics after he's out of Republican politics.
• 2:06:39
  Speaker 1: And I'm just going to.
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 2: Leave it at that.
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 1: I forgot about the Bobby Bob Bobby Bobben and Alabama.
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 1: What does it mean? It means Alabama when it plays
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: for more than one national title in the nineties, That's
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 1: what it means. That was a real possibility. I believe
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 1: before it was before the hire of Gene Stallings, when
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: they brought Stallings was sort of a bear guy that
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: they brought back, and he got them one title in
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 1: a in a game that they Miami just was a
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: little Miami was too cocky for their for their own
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: for themselves in ninety two when they lost that game
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 1: in the Sugar Bowl. But I believe it was before
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 1: the Stallings hire that they really and and I think
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 1: if you go back, if you talk to old time
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 1: FSU folks, I think they thought God was gone right,
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 1: that this was going to happen, and you know the
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 1: you know Alabama then it was just like Notre Dame.
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 1: Those were just over here. And even though it had
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 1: been a while at the time when when Stallings gets hired,
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 1: I think it had been at least over a decade
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 1: since Alabama last was relevant. Bear Bryan, I think retired
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 1: in eighty two, if I'm not mistaken, dies within months
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 1: of retiring. And then they went that rape. They hire
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 1: former New York Giants coach Ray Perkins, right, and that
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 1: didn't go so well. I think if he joins, if
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 1: he takes that Alabama job, right, because at the time,
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: Florida State couldn't break through. They were always sort of
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 1: you know, either getting inched out, edged out by Miami
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 1: or edged out by Notre Dame. And so with the
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 1: resources that Alabama had, you know, the ease back then,
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: the SEC was not that great. It was kind of
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: a you know, two or three team conference at best.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: Smaller conference too by the way, So there was you know,
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 1: he was going to get to that Sugar Bowl, which
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 1: would have meant playing for titles. So probably means Alabama
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 1: has two more national titles because how much how many
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 1: do you get at Florida State by staying in Florida State.
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 1: He got two right, the ninety three and ninety nine.
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 1: So yeah, my guess is those two national titles go
• 2:08:52
  Speaker 1: to Alabama. And more importantly, it's possible Florida State football
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: is never Florida State football, right, and it's good in
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: the long run for Florida State football. That obviously that
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 1: Bowden chose to stay. So there's there's my take on
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 1: where that would hit. All right, Now, let me get
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 1: from John from Princeton big fans and c starco giants.
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: As a Democrat, I feel the party has struggled to
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 1: choose strong leaders. You think Biden catered too much to
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 1: the far left, and if so, did that help hurt
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 1: the party's appeal to blue collar voters. I think that
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 1: Biden and by extension, his chief of staff Ron Klain,
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 1: mistaken online activism for where the base was. I think
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 1: it was a miscalculation. I think they thought that what
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 1: they were seeing online, what they were seeing in the
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 1: activist community, was really directionally where the party was headed.
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: I think this is I think it didn't help that
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 1: Biden didn't really run in a primary, didn't really interact
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 1: much with voters because of COVID and because of how
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 1: quickly the primary sort of shut down there after the
• 2:09:56
  Speaker 1: Clyburn endorsement. COVID hits and everybody just sort of drops out.
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 1: So I think he didn't have a feel for the voter.
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 1: And that's not just him. I think Trump didn't either.
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 1: I think when you just you had to run virtually
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 1: and well virtually, it felt as if the Democrats had
• 2:10:14
  Speaker 1: moved much further to the left than they actually did,
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 1: so I think that had something to do with it.
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 1: But I absolutely Look, Biden got captured by the left.
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: It wasn't Biden's administration. He used Elizabeth Warren and Bernie
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 1: Sanders to make staffing decisions, which, you know, personnel is policy,
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 1: personnel is ideology. You know who you put there, and
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 1: so he himself, you know, you know, the theory of
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: Biden was to be the moderate. That's why he won
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 1: both the primary and that's why he won the general.
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 1: But he governed as if he thought the party had
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 1: moved much further to the left than they did. And
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: I think that that's that's why they we got a
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 1: second Donald Trump term. Barn zip all right, this comes
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 1: from Graham. With the closing of the CPB and the
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 1: zeroing out of public funding corporation of public broadcasting, how
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 1: is public media likely to continue on? You have a
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 1: ton of local stations that still exists, correct, Will public
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 1: media arise from the ashes?
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 4: Well?
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 1: I think it will. I think you're going to see.
• 2:11:21
  Speaker 1: My guess is you're going to see. All right, I'm
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 1: gonna put this in air quotes good private equity help.
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's good, right, I don't know
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 1: if there's going to be demands for efficiencies that end
• 2:11:39
  Speaker 1: up hurting. But the fact that so many local radio stations,
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 1: local media are so necessary in so many rural parts.
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 1: I think the the collection, at least on the on
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 1: the on the MPR side of things, I think has
• 2:11:57
  Speaker 1: got more value than frankly on the television side of things,
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 1: on the video side of things. On that front, so
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 1: I could see, I do think you're going to see
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: more public private if we want public media to survive,
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 1: that some sort of public private private equity partnership is
• 2:12:21
  Speaker 1: coming in some form or another. Maybe it serves as
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 1: a lifeline. Maybe a Democratic Congress helps to create some
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: sort of private equity tax break that encourages investment in
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: local media. You know, I know, in my attempts to
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 1: try to see to try to improve and get some
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: local media startups off the ground, coming up with some
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: tax incentive for businesses you know who get who advertise
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 1: in local media get a tax break. Maybe they you know,
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 1: get different things where you create in the same way
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 1: you try to help a h A a a lesser
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 1: developed part of a city, and you create sort of
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 1: an empowerment zone where it's a tax free zone in
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 1: order to encourage business to come in because they get
• 2:13:11
  Speaker 1: a tax break if they're willing to come in. I
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: think that the next thing, the most realistic legislation you
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: can get past, either on a state or federal level,
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 1: are tax incentives to help local media get up off
• 2:13:25
  Speaker 1: the ground. So I could I sort of see that
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 1: as the direction. I don't think it's where advocates of
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 1: public media want to go right now, but I think
• 2:13:35
  Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up going. All right,
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: Next one is anonymous, and I think I'm going to
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 1: make this the last, the last question. This will be
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: the fifth. Yeah, well, we'll go this plus one more.
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 1: I like the Puerto Rico question that's next. All right,
• 2:13:50
  Speaker 1: This comes from anonymous. Hey, Congratchen your canes from an
• 2:13:52
  Speaker 1: Ole miss lum who made the trip to Glendale painful
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 1: as it is, God bless you. I'll admit the better team. One.
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 1: My question is about Mississippi's US Senate race. Is there
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 1: any realistic path for a Democrat given the states racial
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: polarization and history of strong Republican performances even against modern Democrats,
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: I find the optimism hard to buy. Would love to
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Well, look, the whole argument about Mississippi
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 1: being competitive really is a voter registration analysis. The number
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 1: of This is a state that the majority of registered
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: voters could easily be African American, but that isn't the case.
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 1: I think that there is a lot of unregistered Mississippi
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 1: voters out there, and that a more coordinated effort that
• 2:14:40
  Speaker 1: took place four years. You can't just parachute in and out.
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 1: So this is why. But the reason there's always been
• 2:14:47
  Speaker 1: this what about Mississippi Among Democrats, there's always been this
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 1: what about Mississippi? Not what you don't you know, you're
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 1: not making the realistic argument about Alabama even let but
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 1: to a lesser and South Carolina is in the same vote.
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 1: There is a lot of unregistered or unactivated might be
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 1: a better term for it, African American voters and rural
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: parts of Mississippi and South Carolina who the party does
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 1: a poor job of communicating with. Right, the Democratic Party's
• 2:15:17
  Speaker 1: rural voter problem isn't just a white rural voter. It's
• 2:15:20
  Speaker 1: a Latino rural voter problem in Texas, and it's a
• 2:15:23
  Speaker 1: black rural voter problem in North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi,
• 2:15:27
  Speaker 1: and Alabama. And so there is that's the argument. You're
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: right in that we've seen we've seen sort of both
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 1: theories tested. Right, the moderate white Democrat Presley Right runs
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 1: for governor. You know, it's competitive, and you know, because
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 1: there's this idea if you can just break get into
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: the mid twenties of the white vote, you know, if
• 2:15:56
  Speaker 1: you can break the teens and get into the mid
• 2:15:58
  Speaker 1: twenties of the white vote, have a high African American
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 1: turnout and win those by huge numbers seventy you know,
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent there that that you can make the
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 1: math work. Or do you get an African American nominee
• 2:16:14
  Speaker 1: like Mike Espie, who we've seen that experiment in Mississippi.
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 1: You know, can he so maximize turnout among African Americans
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 1: that it can overcome having a white vote share that's
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 1: in the teen seventeen, eighteen, nineteen percent. You know there,
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 1: there's there's yet to be quite the goldilocks. You know,
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 1: the last time Democrats were able to win some statewide
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 1: races for governor there in the state or even go
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 1: way back and Senate, it's back when Democrats did better
• 2:16:46
  Speaker 1: with the white vote. So you know, but there are
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 1: two you know in this case in Mississippi. There are
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 1: two two you know, sort of two metrics to try
• 2:17:01
  Speaker 1: to to try to manipulate here if you're a campaign operative.
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: One is to supercharge voter registration in rural African American
• 2:17:08
  Speaker 1: communities and give them a reason to turn out. And
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: the other is to do that plus find a moderate
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 1: white Democrat that doesn't that that can appeal to Chamber
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 1: of commerce type Republicans. Right, basically you know, the Roger
• 2:17:31
  Speaker 1: Wicker wing of the party, you know somewhat. So look,
• 2:17:39
  Speaker 1: I'm not a believer that you can do. You know,
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 1: Georgia didn't wasn't one cycle. Right, Democrats started working on
• 2:17:46
  Speaker 1: Georgia when Barack Obama did shockingly well in O eight
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 1: and in twelve he came up short without a lot
• 2:17:55
  Speaker 1: of camp but they did. They started the voter registration.
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 1: Then Stacy Abrams and her organization got more involved. So
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 1: it's it's a I would argue, and this is why
• 2:18:04
  Speaker 1: the leadership of the DNC has just been such a
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 1: catastrophe for the last two decades generally, which is the
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 1: DNC has been focused on just how do you succeed
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 1: in the seven swing states, eight swing states, six swing states, whatever,
• 2:18:17
  Speaker 1: it is and everything else is less of a priority.
• 2:18:22
  Speaker 1: There has never been any medium or long term thinking
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side of the of the I'm not
• 2:18:29
  Speaker 1: saying there aren't individuals who have been that way, but
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 1: there is Republicans who think more long term and think
• 2:18:35
  Speaker 1: about sort of over time, how do they make progress
• 2:18:38
  Speaker 1: where over time they can put a state in play.
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has been a big project for them for quite
• 2:18:45
  Speaker 1: some time, and I think they're you know, there's a
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 1: lot of crazy happening right now in Minnesota, and it's
• 2:18:51
  Speaker 1: going to be interesting to see whether this is at
• 2:18:53
  Speaker 1: all helped the Republican Party's ability to win statewide in
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 1: that state or not. But that's the thesis behind Mississippi,
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: that it is a voter registration that if you improved
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 1: organizing and voter registration, then then suddenly and then once
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 1: you're competitive and it's evenly competitive, well then it may
• 2:19:15
  Speaker 1: open the door to a handful more of potential persuadable voters.
• 2:19:20
  Speaker 1: Last question comes from Chewy from Puerto Rico. He says, cheers, Chuck,
• 2:19:22
  Speaker 1: I'm Chewy from San Juan. One of the most unsettling
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: insights from Nuremberg twenty twenty five is doctor Douglas Kelly's
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 1: focus on how systems enable destructive behavior. I watched Nurnberg.
• 2:19:34
  Speaker 1: That's an incredible insight. It was about how the system
• 2:19:37
  Speaker 1: did it and how people fall into the system, not
• 2:19:40
  Speaker 1: who the individuals are, but how institutions rationalize and normalize misconduct.
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 1: I think I know where you're going. His work is
• 2:19:46
  Speaker 1: a warning that democracies don't collapse from a single active evil,
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: but from the gradual erosion of standards and accountability. So
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: my question is, are we still capable of recognizing normalization
• 2:19:56
  Speaker 1: itself as a warning sign in leadership or become so
• 2:19:58
  Speaker 1: conditioned to risk that only recognize failure once it's irreversible. Man?
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 1: That is that is? That is a deep question. I
• 2:20:07
  Speaker 1: don't there's no there's no right answer yet. Well there
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: is a right answer, I think. I think I'm going
• 2:20:12
  Speaker 1: to lean on the side of hope that we can
• 2:20:14
  Speaker 1: recognize it. And let me end with where I began,
• 2:20:18
  Speaker 1: which was the polling that we got, the first round
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: of polling that we got in response to Minneapolis shooting,
• 2:20:24
  Speaker 1: where a strong majority of voters said it was not justified.
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 1: I think if these voters understood how the recruiting process
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 1: for ICE officers was done, coupled with the lack of
• 2:20:39
  Speaker 1: training that's been given to them, coupled with the propaganda
• 2:20:44
  Speaker 1: that is delivered internally to these officers about the neighborhoods
• 2:20:50
  Speaker 1: they're going tossing in the intentional targeting of certain communities
• 2:20:56
  Speaker 1: for political reasons, not necessarily for safety and security reasons.
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 1: And you have and you create the situation that you
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 1: created in Minneapolis that costs Renee Good her life. And
• 2:21:08
  Speaker 1: so Jewie, I will just simply say, I think your
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 1: question is a comment and it's a very important one.
• 2:21:20
  Speaker 1: It's a very important piece of commentary because it's a
• 2:21:24
  Speaker 1: point I was trying to make earlier on one of
• 2:21:27
  Speaker 1: my YouTube updates, which was Ice isn't the problem. It's
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: the people and how they're being trained that's the problem.
• 2:21:36
  Speaker 1: And I am not going to go down the abolished
• 2:21:39
  Speaker 1: ICE road personally, because in theory, we need immigration control,
• 2:21:47
  Speaker 1: we need border patrol, we need customs. You know, all
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 1: of that is a fact. What we need is better
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: leadership and better training. And so the question then, to
• 2:22:00
  Speaker 1: sort of reword your last question, are we capable of
• 2:22:03
  Speaker 1: seeing that? I don't know, sadly that what I just
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 1: laid out about sort of how we got there. I've
• 2:22:13
  Speaker 1: not seen in a larger media context. Right, I've done it.
• 2:22:18
  Speaker 1: I've worked really hard to make sure people understood this
• 2:22:21
  Speaker 1: didn't happen in a vacuum. Right. The way they recruited
• 2:22:24
  Speaker 1: ice officers guaranteed that they were going to recruit more
• 2:22:28
  Speaker 1: hotheads than de escalators, and that was a recipe for trouble.
• 2:22:37
  Speaker 1: Some people think that's a bug in the system. I
• 2:22:39
  Speaker 1: fear others in and around that West wing think it's
• 2:22:43
  Speaker 1: a feature. And that's you know that, That to me
• 2:22:50
  Speaker 1: is when you just brought up Nurmberg and I haven't.
• 2:22:53
  Speaker 1: I haven't brought this up. I've I've binged it probably
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 1: like many of you already have on on Netflix. I
• 2:22:59
  Speaker 1: sort of can assume so much. I'm kind of like
• 2:23:02
  Speaker 1: a generic middle aged white guy. I will consume me
• 2:23:05
  Speaker 1: some Nazi History channel stuff all the time, Right, I
• 2:23:09
  Speaker 1: fall into that. I fall into that stereotype, and so
• 2:23:14
  Speaker 1: I consume Nurremberg. By the way, if you're going down
• 2:23:17
  Speaker 1: that Netflix road, the Circle of Evil eight part doc
• 2:23:21
  Speaker 1: about the people around Hitler who please watch it. It's
• 2:23:24
  Speaker 1: amazing and more importantly, you'll find yourself, Hey, that person
• 2:23:31
  Speaker 1: is this anyway you know what you'll end up doing.
• 2:23:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to further go down further. I'll just
• 2:23:37
  Speaker 1: lean hard into into that. But there's there's definitely more
• 2:23:41
  Speaker 1: than one character in hitler Circle of Evil that looks
• 2:23:45
  Speaker 1: quite familiar in today's politics. So on that having note,
• 2:23:50
  Speaker 1: why don't we make that the end of this episode?
• 2:23:53
  Speaker 1: Terrific questions? Thank you, remember asked Chuck at the Chuck
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: podcast dot com. That's how you get a question asked,
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 1: Leave a comment somewhere if you'd like to. We do
• 2:24:01
  Speaker 1: monitor that as best we can. We love our YouTubers,
• 2:24:05
  Speaker 1: We love the commentary we get there, even the ones
• 2:24:07
  Speaker 1: that you know. We don't love the trolls, but there's
• 2:24:10
  Speaker 1: the trolls are fewer and far between. You know who
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 1: you are, So thank you for that, and I will
• 2:24:16
  Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours