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Suprise Year-End Rally?🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Surprise, surprise, We've got a rally underway today. We're going
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: to talk about it. Let's just jump right in. I
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: want to talk about the key events that are going
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: on this week. Not a heavy week out there, but
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: you've got the October PCE inflation data coming out today.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: You also have the Q three GDP data coming out tomorrow,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the consumer confidence data also tomorrow, and then new home
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: sales data coming in the rest of this week, durable
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: goods so on. And then remember, guys, though this is
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: a light week because people are away from work, it
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: kind of makes sense that we see the market doing
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: what it is Right now. We're bitcoins trading close to
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: ninety k. The real question is how does this hold.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: We put out a poll this morning. This week features
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: a light economic calendar, but could we get a surprise
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: centa rally before the year's in. Remember we still have
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: another week heading into it. After Christmas, there'll be a
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: few more trading days. Right now, everybody's saying no, not
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: a chance for the one hundred k incoming. It looks
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: like it's going to be twenty twenty six. Now, we're
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: going to break that down, give you guys some insights
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: into what that might look like going forward. I want
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick, because this is
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the global macro outlook going into twenty six. Take a look.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: If you look globally at the moment, everything is just
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: creeping higher. So JJB yield's creeping higher because of great
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: hikes in France, yours climbing higher because the fiscal situation there.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: We saw the bunders bank report on Friday out of
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Germany that's added upside to global bodom rates. And then
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: we saw that kind of hawkish hole from the cut
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: from the Bank of England last week, which is all
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: adding upward pressure. And I think the interesting thing here
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: is that outlier potentially is you know, what's going on
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: with the FED. One of the main themes in this
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: year has been fiscal largest and I don't think that's
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: something that's necessarily going to be going away heading into
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: a midterm election year. Republicans aren't polling particularly well, and
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: you know, may see the situation where Trump needs to
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: kind of pull the fiscal leads to try win the
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: electra over. But what one thing I'm kind of you know,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: looking at, is okay, if Trump has his person in
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the chair and they're not able to enact his rate
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: cutting agenda. What happens, then you know the pressure that
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: he put on power this year can be even more
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: intense on whoever gets the top.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Job next year. All right, So everything kind of boiling
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: down to rates and trying to deal with the economic
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: outlook here in the US. And I would agree that
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I think the Republicans are in a bit of a
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: hard spot right now just because of the economic condition
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: in the United States around affordability. And we'll get into
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: what that's going to look like, because one thing that
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: they cannot have is a government shutdown that could possibly
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: be brewing though right now if you look at polymarket,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: it's still somewhat flat. If you zoom in right there,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: it's kind of up and down. But I anticipate a
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: lot of this is still unknown, mainly because of what's
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: going on in DC, which is nothing right now. Once
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: we come back from the new year, that's when you'll
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: start to see an accelerated move in Congress, and the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: question is will we get the shutdown going forward? Now?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: The new FED chair is what that analyst was referencing,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and it's important to note that when you look at
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: these FED chairs that are potentially in the running. Hassett
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: has been in a position that is very aligned with
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: President Trump, but of recent he's been kind of talking
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit more like a FED chair now that's
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: trying to keep the market neutral. Maybe that is a strategy,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: but he is the leader right now. Let's go take
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: a look at this clip, and.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: People familiar with the situation say the President could name
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: the next FED chair by the first week of January,
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: maybe a little bit later. After interviewing the last candidate,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Rick Reader, in the final week of the year at
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: mar A Lago October tenth, CNBC reported that Bessett now
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: with the short list from eleven down to five candidates.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: November thirtieth, Trump telling reporters, I President Trump, that is
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: I know who I'm going to pick, and everyone thinks
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: it's Kevin Hassett. Now one person iferitly where the President's thinking.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Told me, this is the most powerful man in the
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: world making one of the most important decisions of his administration.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: The committee is not going to decide. Joe. Having looked
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: at all of this and talking to I don't know
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: a lot of people over the weekend, I can't find
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: Bessett putting his finger on the scale for any particular
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: candidate what looks like he does, he may put his
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: finger on the scale to bring it back to neutral.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: So the president has a choice between all these candidates.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I think Hasst was getting hammered.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: I'm not really sure it's fair, right, and I think
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: they want to say, look, it might not be has it.
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: In fact, Waller just had a really strong what do
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: you think of that's fair?
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: There's a thinking about Waller that I think is maybe
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: not appreciated, which is that it may be that the
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: administration is beginning to understand the chair himself cannot cut rates.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: They need the committee, So who is your best person
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: to have in that job? It may be Waller in
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: that case.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: That's a good statement there, I think, because that is
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: exactly right. Is the way that you have a chair
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: that can convince the rest of the Board of Governors,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: but the pressure will still be on right now. And
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I think also the other advantage that, remember it's still
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: a vote, so the likelihood of having more in alignment
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: with Trump's policies would of course benefit that. If you're
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: pro cutting, some people were still thinking that maybe we
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: don't need cuts. This is a thing that I still
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: am up in the air on because I think it
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: has so much impact on how the market performs. But
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the problem is that inflation is still a big issue.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to how you're going to deal with
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: some taxes today. First of all, not tax advice I'm
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: not giving you, but there is news out there that
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: the clock is ticking for crypto tax loss harvesting. And
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the way it works, really the way I've done it
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: is pretty simple. If you made profit throughout the year,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Let's say you bought in twenty twenty four, because if
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: you bought in twenty twenty five, it's likely that you're down.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: If you bought in twenty twenty four, you probably had
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: some profit taking that occurred in twenty twenty five, but
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: you may have had some out there that you could
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: offset those capital gains with which you can offset a
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: one to one on capital gains. So if you made
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: fifty and you lost fifty, that would be a zero,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: providing that you made profit on fifty K. But if
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: you didn't make any of you can still go against
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: your adjusted gross income, and there you can get up
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: to three K if you're married and or single. So
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: there are some benefits here do you guys need to
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: be aware of check out with your own tax advisor.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But you may have an opportunity to reduce your adjusted
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: gross income by up to three thousand dollars. That may
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: affect you even on a tax you know section out
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: there in terms of what your pay is. Other things
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: you can do to kind of plan for some tax
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: moves is getting into some iras, and iras of course
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: are traditional tax vehicles. A lot of things happening out there,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: and with I Trusts, of course, you can do that
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: very easily and very quickly, and you can take advantage
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: of it. Now, everybody has a little different position, so
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: always consult your own tax advisor and or get with
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the tax guys over at I Trust Capital. They'll help
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: you out. Did you guys know? Also you can get
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: physical silver from I Trust Capital. They just put out
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a release here recently, so you can invest in both
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: gold and silver, but you can also get physical delivery.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: So kind of an interesting spin there with I Trust
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: check it out. We'll leave a link down below. It's
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: one hundred dollars funding reward just to get started and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: get going out there. Other things I want to hit
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on right now. You look at the back and forth
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: between Tom Lee and the fund Funstrap. Tom Lee, if
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: you guys don't know, he is the head of Funstrap,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: but he's also the head of Bitmind. Bitmind of course
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: very influential in the space, their digital assid treasury funstrat
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: more of an investment vehicle, and there's analysts within that
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: group that are claiming, no, we're not going to see
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: a Bitcoin all time high. But you've got Tom Lee
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: over here saying we could see bitcoin doubling in January.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So a lot of people kind of came after that.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: But the point is, I think that maybe Tom Lee's
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: basis is looking more long term now. Granted people will say,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: well what about January? That's the question mark right now
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: is what happens in there now. What we are seeing
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: right now with bitcoin is, of course it's edging toward
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: ninety k again after being down well below that. Speaking
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: of one of the Funs track, guys, this is Sean
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Ferrell kind of hitting on the whole point that we
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: might be entering a very unusual phase, and that is
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the anger stage. If you look at the cycle there,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: this is potentially where we could be meaning that we
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: could see some more dips coming into the market, and
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you guys are playing it. I've
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: been slowly moving into over this year, moving in and
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: out of profits into reserve cash because I do think
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: there is going to be some dips that you can
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: take advantage of. There are some ways to benefit against that.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Even if you want to hold gold and silver, those
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: are different ways that that works, or even some of
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the top tier stocks. All of that. But the key
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: here is playing into these dips as we go through
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: what could be a bear period. Now is this a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: whole bear cycle? We just don't know. There's so many
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: factors that come in from the macro side that are
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: different than what we've seen in the past, especially with
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: what's going on with the FED, the economy, and of
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: course internationally as well other things that are kind of funny.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: This is Samsung out out there is just I fired.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: The analysis of bitcoin is coming under sixty k will
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: never work in this industry again. Do you guys think
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: we're gonna see a below sixty k bitcoin? If you
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: think so, just put yes down in the comment. I'm
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: kind of curious if you think we're gonna see a
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: below sixty. I'm kind of on the upside. I don't
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: know if sixty is in the cards now. Could we
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: see us you know, sixties or possibly low seventies. That's
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: kind of the area where I start to activate capital
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: into at least Bitcoin, but I think some of the
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: better capital would probably be going into Ethan, a handful
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: of other tokens out there with a pullback in many
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: of these areas. Santa rally targets one hundred and twenty.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: That's what these people are saying, is that we are
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: pushing one hundred and twenty after Bitcoin just approach ninety K.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I think the key here is anytime there is a
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: slight move up with Bitcoin, you get these kinds of headlines.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: What I would simply say, caution, always caution. This is
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a very unusual cycle, and it's definitely a very unusual
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: time of the year. Tasla also jumped to all time highs,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: and of course many people would look at this and say,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Tesla's kind of the you know, the crypto of s
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred. I would agree with that. Tesla
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: continue to fly, But I mean when you look at
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: what Elon is doing, I think, what did he ended
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: up being in the morse. I think the next tweet
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: was kind of yeah, here it is first person up
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to the summer fifty billion. I mean, this guy's going
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: to be a trillionaire probably next year if space X
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: goes public. And this was something that just kind of
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: blew my mind on SpaceX and his theory of where
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: energy is going to come for these data centers, and
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: if you look at it, because many people are building
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: infrastructure here in the US all around, Elon's really looking at,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: you know, putting data centers in space. I mean, now
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: you've got solar activity which would be unimpeded, which would
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: be unlimited. That would be why SpaceX could be just
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: absolutely out of this world literally in terms of value
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: when they do go public next year. So be on
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the lookout for that one. If AI and data centers
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: are going to be a big factor, he's probably onto something.
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: CNBC said, hey, can we get a rally without a
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: rate cut? Take a look to see what they.
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: Said as it relates to the Federal Reserve. Look, I
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: think it's built into the market already that you're going
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: to maybe get one rate cut, maybe another rate cut thereafter.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: But I don't think the market's reliant in the second
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: half of the year on further rate cuts, and in fact,
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: if you're cutting rates in the second half of twenty
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: twenty six, we have some sort of problem in the economy.
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: So I think Josh is right to highlight the earnings
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: growth because we're coming off four consecutive quarters of double
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: digit earnings growth, and the expectation is that you're going
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: to see that again as you move into twenty six.
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: So I think what has happened is the personality of
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: this market. It's becoming more discerning. It's becoming more discerning
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: from the standpoint looking at twenty twenty six and realizing
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: there probably might be more rental opportunities than long term
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: anchoring in one particular investment theme. I think the market's
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: going to rotate to a lot of different places, and
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: that implies you're going to need Scott the four ninety
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: three to presticipate. You cannot just rely on seven individual stocks.
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: You cannot rely on the AI halo to really lead
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: the market higher. So I think that's what's going to
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: be most critical for us.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Well, you know that kind of aligns with you know,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: our thesis is that swing trades are probably going to
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: be the way to go, this route to kind of
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: in and out. And this is typical of all these
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: down markets. There's always profit somewhere to be made. The
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: problem that most traders face is one they don't understand
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the asset to go into, or they get greedy when
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: an asset is running and they don't sell into it
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: in terms of making profit. One example of that would
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: be even gold and silver. If you look at where
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: gold and silver is right now, this is another a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: daily record high above forty four hundred, above sixty nine.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: That's right, sixty nine dollars. We're going to hit seventy
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: on silver anytime. Likely that even as we record this
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: could be there. POI being is I'm holding gold and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: silver both. I am looking at exits now on gold
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: for the first time after holding it for months. And
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the key here around this is many people are saying
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: we're going to get a six thousand dollars gold, we
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: could have one hundred dollars silver. Yeah, you could ride
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: this up another twenty thirty percent of the question is
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: we'll have the volatility on a downside that I don't
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: think so, But I do think you've got an opportunity
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: here where you could set some stop losses on some
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: of these things and be just fine. Speaking of taking profits,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: gold hit its most overbought level in history. Some people
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: would say now's the time to dump on gold, exit out,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: even though Peter Schiff probably would not go that direction.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: But the point being is is that maybe you take
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: profits off the table, start to shift those into some
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: other assets, whether that stock's end or crypto, which are
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: in some of these assets are highly depressed. Now you
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: might look at it in the sense of is this
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a short term swing trade or is it a mid
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: range long trade that I'm willing to buy at these
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: lower levels dollar cost further down, meaning chasing something like
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: an ether a downward on the chart. If it does
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: go down, that could be some opportunities that you could
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: take with these kinds of profits. So again, these are
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: strategies that many people are looking at right now because
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: there are some ways to make it in this market
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: rather than getting deep and two concentrated in single assets.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: That's a big problem that a lot of people do
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: right now. Speaking of Peter shift, the rise on the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: price of gold and silver two thousand and one to
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: eight was a sign of major FED policy error. I
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: agree with that the harbor gener of the two thousand
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: and eight financial crisis, I don't agree with that necessarily,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: but the current rally that began at twenty four signaling
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: a bigger policy error that may have even more consequences. Now,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: either Shift is right on this or this is another
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: potential false flag in the sense of what he has
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: always yelled and talked about on gold. And then that
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: is gold will eventually outperform, outperform, and it gets one
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: year out of ten that it does it. So the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: real question is how does it play out in twenty
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: twenty six. This will be a key factor. If gold
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: goes back to back in outperforming Bitcoin in some of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the digital assets space, this will get interesting on Wall
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Street going forward. Gold could get intriguing, and I think
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: still we need token is silver, which we have not
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: seen in the market, at least on capacity and scale.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: That'll be one to look at. Here's another thing, when
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you look at Stock's crypto seems very suppressed. Something feels
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: off right now, and I totally agree with that. You've
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: got to look at the upside to what we're seeing
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: in the SMP. Outside some of the pullback which has
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: been low on some of the AI sectors. But this
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: is getting interesting because some of these cryptos are a
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: completely depressed. Question is they go down eighty ninety percent
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: or we see some pull back completely into oblivion. Many
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of these projects may not necessarily make it out of
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: this bear market, and this is something that we've talked
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: about with a handful of analysts. This may concentrate on
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a few assets at the top because remember, you've got
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Wall Street and a lot of structured capital moving into
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the market right now, and they may not be willing
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: to jump into the all coin season as much. So
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: here's the thing that gets me going, because you've got
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: to look at how these tribal mechanisms work in investing,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: and Vlad kind of summed it up here in reference
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to how AI investors are working versus crypto take a look.
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: I think one problem you're seeing with the AI companies
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: right now is AI technology is very popular. People are
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: adopting it, but the AI companies themselves are very unpopular.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: They don't have that many fans. If you see criticism
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: about you, say open AI or anthropic, the people rushing
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: to defend them are either venture capitalists online or you
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: know AI researchers that work at these companies, But you
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: compare that to crypto. You know, if the crypto industry
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: is under threat from you know, regulatory overreach, or even
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: if just someone says something negative about bitcoin, you just
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: have an army of retail people that just take the
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: knives out. And I think it's because the one thing
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: crypto got very very right from a very early point,
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: I mean from basically the genesis of it is making
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: it so that normal people can have crypto. The big
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: private companies are held by wealthy insiders, so they don't
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: have as many defenders. I think that could become a
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: big problem for them because you know, if it starts
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: taking more jobs or at least disrupting the labor force
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: at an accelerated rate, I think people are going to
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: get angrier and angrier. I think what's going to happen
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: is if regulations come, they're not going to have people fighting.
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: The every day person might not be on the side
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: of the big AI companies.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: That is a good analysis because that is one of
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the things that you know, we've talked about often here
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: is the tribal nature of crypto. Though it is it's detriment,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: it also its strength. And you look at some of
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the major categories out there, AI is clearly the one
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: that is winning. That is a problem moving down the road,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: and it does kind of present itself in terms of
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: a challenge for how investors might play into this, because
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: again this gets back to the how the next five
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: years is going to play out, and you could have
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: a handful of cryptoipos coming out next year that could
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: win big, that again would have a huge tribal element
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: to support it. So you look at this article right here,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: This of course is Ray Dalio coming out bitcoin inferior
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: to gold, and he kind of hits on the three
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: big ones that everybody always argues, which is traceability, security,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: risks on if we do get a quantum hit, and
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: then a lot of the component, which is the lack
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: of appeal for central banks. Central banks are acquiring gold,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: so we know all that. Does that change your mindset
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: on how you would invest or would you just look
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: at gold as another major asset that you could You know,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: one is a debasement trade. Its least is not losing value,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a least not at the level that we're losing it
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: for the US dollar and just as there a final
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: reminder that even though gold is having a stellar year
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: and it may have a good twenty twenty six, if
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: bitcoin gets its life, this is one of those assets
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: that moves very quickly and it will outperform again just
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: like it has in the past. So just be aware.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: It's all timing as well as time in the market.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: So another thing you got to look at right here
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: is the affordability issue. And this is a big problem
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: right now because it will change the face of the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: nation again. The number of multiple job holders now serves
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: to almost half a million. In October, this of course
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: is to a record nine point three million. This is
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: crazy that nine point three million people have to have
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: two jobs to be able to make it out there.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: This figure has risen another three and a half are
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: almost four million, says twenty twenty. And if you look
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: at that, and also the potential right here that Americans
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: are working primarily full time and secondary part time jobs
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: jumped to five point three million. This is insane. It
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: only says one thing, and that is affordability is real
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: and that we are going to have to have I
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: think an administration that starts to address it and stop
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: saying that you just have this great economy. Forty five
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: percent of Americans now blame the high prices for poor
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: financial conditions, near the highest reading in history. And this
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: coming from the Michigan Consumer Center, and that's where the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: consumer sentiment comes from every quarter. This is in align
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: with a great financial crisis peak which was in nineteen
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: eighty And of course then you've got really by comparison,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: only five percent of consumers now have blamed high prices
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. And that's the problem right now is
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: you have seen maybe a derivative or an accumulative of
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: problems really since twenty twenty, and it's now peaking with
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: all sorts of things that are coming in from the
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: administration that we're seeing right now. So it is a
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: tough time for I think a re election bid, which
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: is next year this time. This is something that has
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: to be undercannow. Could this get corrected, Sure, it could
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: very well get corrected in the first quarter, possibly in
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: the second quarter, and it could come in strong and
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: we could see a readjustment down end where maybe inflation
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: is slowing, affordability is starting to ease up, or there's
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: some stimulus of some sort from the administration that kind
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: of pushes it forward. Quick look at bitcoin right now,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I'm on the weekly, it's still on a red candle.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: If you look out on the daily, though, what we
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: are starting to see was this little bit of a
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: move as we jump up here in a short period
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: of time and wicked up to almost ninety k, but
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: again over the last week, still down trend off of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: that ninety four that we were dealing with on the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: high which was just back on December the ninth, if
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: you remember that. So be on the lookout. Do we
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: see a trend upward, because right now it is holding sideways.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: We'll continue to give you guys some heads up this week.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be running videos for most
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: of the week before Christmas, and we'll have a couple
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: of predictions for you and all that good stuff. If
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: you guys are not in the Baron market ad just
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: our pre group, we always leave a link down below.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Check it out there, and of course hit me out
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: there on x app. Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: time right here on the Paul Baron Show.