Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor EXPOSES How the supply shock will FORCE Bitcoin to EXPLODE!!! | EP 1492

Transcript

Michael Saylor EXPOSES How the supply shock will FORCE Bitcoin to EXPLODE!!! | EP 1492 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:02
  Michael Saylor has been buying thousands of Bitcoin per day.
• 0:06
  And yesterday, on stage at the biggest Bitcoin conference in
• 0:09
  the world, he told us what the long-awaited supply shock will
• 0:14
  look like in 2026. And if Michael Saylor's even
• 0:18
  directionally correct, I don't think anybody is prepared for
• 0:23
  the rally we're going to see towards the year end of 2026.
• 0:27
  We have a ton of news coming out of the conference that I will
• 0:31
  break down for you today. But before we get to that, let's
• 0:34
  start with the first Michael Saylor clip.
• 0:37
  Here we go. Just curious in terms of what
• 0:41
  your thoughts are, what's next? What should we be excited about
• 0:45
  closing out this year of 2026? Well, I think bitcoins going to
• 0:51
  rally. I, I, I think there's a lot of
• 0:53
  capital flowing into Bitcoin right now.
• 0:57
  And at the rate that digital credit is forming and at the
• 1:02
  rate you saw our buy this morning, we bought the entire
• 1:05
  supply last week. Then Strive announced a massive
• 1:08
  buy. Then there's a massive bank
• 1:11
  credit coming online. All the big banks, JP Morgan
• 1:15
  City, Schwab, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, they're all coming
• 1:19
  online. So I think the formation of
• 1:22
  you're talking about between 20 and $100 billion worth of credit
• 1:29
  formation in the next 12 months. And there's only $10 billion of
• 1:33
  Bitcoin naturally available for sale.
• 1:35
  So I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock.
• 1:40
  There ought to be a rally in in BTCI, think that'll catalyse a
• 1:45
  rally and all the Bitcoin treasury companies, I think it
• 1:48
  will cause a rally and demand for digital credit.
• 1:51
  I think there'll be a rally in bank credit.
• 1:54
  I think, I think the Clarity Act will go through and there'll be
• 2:00
  a lot of very constructive guidance from the CFTC, Treasury
• 2:05
  and and the SECI think that that will accelerate digital assets
• 2:09
  innovation. Guys, I, I obviously you know
• 2:15
  me, I, I guess don't have the best memory, but if I'm not
• 2:19
  mistaken, this feels like the first time sailors said supply
• 2:23
  shock, or at the very least he's only said it a couple of times.
• 2:27
  And I know a lot of us Bitcoiners have been saying
• 2:29
  this, but I think This is why this clip hit so hard because
• 2:33
  it's not just me and our boy Luke saying supply shock every
• 2:37
  week. It's Sailor with his vantage
• 2:39
  point, which is one of the things I've been telling you
• 2:41
  guys in regards to the amount of capital going into stretch or
• 2:46
  the amount of capital that Sailor is being able to attract
• 2:50
  with his new Bitcoin products. Now, one of the interesting
• 2:53
  numbers in there that I I actually had to think about a
• 2:58
  little bit is what he said about there's only 10 billion of
• 3:03
  naturally, you know, natural supply of Bitcoin.
• 3:07
  And at first I was thinking maybe he's talking about the
• 3:10
  Bitcoin on exchanges, but I think what he's talking about is
• 3:14
  what he mentioned in the beginning of the clip that
• 3:16
  they're buying up all the mine, you know, the Bitcoin left to
• 3:21
  mine supply, which would roughly be around 12 billion a year, at
• 3:27
  least at current prices. So I think what he's saying is,
• 3:31
  hey, look, me myself with Stretch, with the amount of
• 3:34
  interest going into stretch, we're buying up literally all of
• 3:38
  the newly supply, newly mined supply of Bitcoin.
• 3:43
  And that doesn't even account for everything else that we're
• 3:45
  seeing. Obviously, I covered it for you
• 3:47
  guys yesterday Strive announced a he, he called it significant
• 3:51
  by maybe in comparison to what we saw from Sailor, it was
• 3:55
  didn't feel that significant. But again, there's multiple
• 3:58
  players, multiple factors playing out right now that
• 4:00
  wanted to acquire a lot of Bitcoin And that doesn't even
• 4:03
  account for what we're seeing from the institutional interest,
• 4:05
  which as Sailor laid out seems to be accelerating.
• 4:10
  So all of this is playing out with almost like little to no,
• 4:17
  how do I say it, like attention coming into Bitcoin right now,
• 4:20
  the majority of people are still sleeping on Bitcoin.
• 4:23
  I will be covering later on in the show what levels people are
• 4:27
  probably watching right now, at least from an institutional
• 4:30
  perspective, what we're all kind of watching to wrap our heads
• 4:34
  around whether we are making it out of a bear market, where
• 4:37
  we're whether we're at the end of a bear market, where, where
• 4:39
  do we currently stand right now? But as you can hear, Sailor is
• 4:43
  extremely bullish. Now obviously you guys joke all
• 4:46
  the time. We are simply Sailor here at
• 4:48
  this show because he's been the biggest proponent for Bitcoin
• 4:53
  for the last couple of years. And in I think a further clip or
• 4:59
  maybe actually it was in in the beginning of this clip and I and
• 5:01
  I cut it out. He basically said that in the
• 5:03
  last 12 months or the last six months I believe it was, he's
• 5:07
  seen more innovation than in the first five years that he's been
• 5:10
  in Bitcoin. As you can see, there's a lot of
• 5:13
  factors accelerating right now that are making everyone feel
• 5:17
  extremely bullish. Obviously we've had a lot of
• 5:19
  really good news stories. We have a generally positive
• 5:24
  administration around Bitcoin and I will cover some of the
• 5:27
  stuff you know that we heard out of the Bitcoin conference which
• 5:30
  were a little more contentious. But we are starting to see that
• 5:34
  everything is kind of building in our direction right now.
• 5:38
  And if we continue to see the amount of interest going into
• 5:42
  stretch like I've been covering, they've been able to acquire
• 5:46
  about a billion dollars a week. And I will update that for you
• 5:48
  guys in a minute. Things are heating up.
• 5:52
  And I saw you guys in the beginning of the show being or
• 5:56
  rather saying something on the lines of I've been hearing about
• 6:00
  the supply shock forever. I think we've all been hearing
• 6:03
  about it. And maybe in true Bitcoin or
• 6:07
  fashion, we've all been a little bit early on whether this is
• 6:12
  happening. Now, I did see some people say
• 6:14
  like it's not going to happen this cycle is going to happen
• 6:16
  next cycle. But it does feel as if the
• 6:20
  institutional interest coming into Bitcoin, the institutional
• 6:23
  products, the amount of, I don't want to say regulatory clarity,
• 6:28
  but the amount of factors playing into the Bitcoin bull
• 6:33
  run that is probably ahead of us in 2027.
• 6:38
  It does seem as though we are all probably a little little
• 6:44
  bearish on what we think the next cycle is.
• 6:47
  A lot of people have this impression.
• 6:48
  I think I was covering it yesterday or maybe it was the
• 6:50
  end of the last week. We all have this impression that
• 6:53
  since Bitcoin is a 1 1/2 trillion dollar asset, the
• 6:57
  higher it goes, the harder it is for it to go even higher.
• 7:01
  But that's if you really account for a steady influx of capital
• 7:06
  coming into Bitcoin. What we're seeing is that the
• 7:09
  influx of capital is accelerating.
• 7:11
  It is going higher because of what Sailor did.
• 7:14
  Now, obviously Sailor himself isn't going to be the sole
• 7:18
  person to drive the Bitcoin price up.
• 7:22
  But once it starts turning around, once people start
• 7:25
  feeling a little comfortable, whether it's the macro
• 7:26
  landscape, whether it's the price of Bitcoin going up and
• 7:30
  people start to FOMO into it, all of these factors are really
• 7:34
  going to magnify and crash into a hard cap, limited supply.
• 7:41
  Again, thinking about that $10 billion number, he said anywhere
• 7:44
  between 20 and $100 billion of capital is going to be fighting
• 7:49
  for about $10 billion of Bitcoin.
• 7:52
  So A2 to 10X influx of capital fighting for the daily mind
• 7:57
  supply of Bitcoin. Obviously, there is this
• 8:00
  contention or this idea of what two and a half million Bitcoin
• 8:05
  on exchanges. You know what, how do we really
• 8:08
  factor this in because a lot of people will just bring more
• 8:11
  Bitcoin when they want to sell and there's even a kind of
• 8:14
  concern about that two and a half million.
• 8:16
  Is it really off the exchange? Are they factoring in the
• 8:20
  strategy holdings? Can we really trust that
• 8:23
  Coinbase isn't rehypothecating etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
• 8:28
  But what we are seeing is that we as an industry, as a
• 8:35
  phenomenon have grown way bigger than we ever have in every other
• 8:40
  cycle. And maybe we are waiting for a
• 8:43
  fabled supply shock. But again, I don't think I've
• 8:45
  ever heard sailors say supply shock in any clip sound by
• 8:50
  interview. You guys can correct me and I
• 8:53
  and I could be wrong on this, but I think this is the first
• 8:55
  time he said this. Maybe he's been listening to a
• 8:58
  little bit of Samson Mao here. But this does seem to be a hot
• 9:03
  take because we've all been saying supply shock.
• 9:06
  I've seen you guys yell at me in the chat being like, oh, here we
• 9:09
  go. Supply shock.
• 9:10
  Is the supply shock in the room with us?
• 9:13
  Not yet, but it seems like all the factors are leading into the
• 9:18
  fable, the mythical supply shock actually playing out in 2026.
• 9:23
  So it's going to be interesting to see this happen.
• 9:26
  Now there is another clip that I want to add here and it is the
• 9:30
  same speech, but it's Saylor talking about the quote digital
• 9:34
  credit. Now, obviously we are hardcore
• 9:38
  self custody maxies, but it does seem like the digital credit
• 9:42
  quote UN quote meme is catching on.
• 9:44
  It does seem like there is a real interest in digital credit,
• 9:48
  which is being led by Saylor and the Stretch or STRC product.
• 9:53
  And that does seem to be bringing in a whole new audience
• 9:57
  or a whole new demand from a totally different market that
• 9:59
  Bitcoin wasn't able to attract. So this clip, just in addition
• 10:05
  to what he just said, is really playing out through the idea
• 10:08
  that maybe the supply shock is starting to enter the room.
• 10:13
  Let's let's watch this clip. So I, I don't think there's any
• 10:17
  question digital credits going to work.
• 10:19
  There's 3/3 and 1/2 trillion dollars in private credit right
• 10:23
  now and that 3 1/2 trillion is getting 8 1/2 percent, 9% yields
• 10:28
  is totally a liquid. And if even 1 or 2% of it flows
• 10:34
  into digital credit, this will be an explosion.
• 10:37
  I don't know why you wouldn't have 10% of it, $370 billion
• 10:42
  just coming out of private credit flowing into digital
• 10:44
  credit. It's all illiquid, opaque under
• 10:49
  collateralized unrated stuff. So digital credit, if it if it
• 10:57
  got even 1 or 2% of the junk bond market, the private credit
• 11:00
  market, you know, or, or other sorts of exotic credit, it would
• 11:06
  be exploding. In fact, if you look right now
• 11:11
  at STRCSTRC is the largest preferred equity in the world
• 11:17
  and it is the most liquid preferred equity in the world
• 11:21
  and the fastest growing, maybe one of the fastest growing, you
• 11:25
  know, financial products in the world all in the first eight
• 11:27
  months. And that's without any of this
• 11:30
  happening. So I think that the digital
• 11:34
  credit train has left the station stretch is working even
• 11:40
  today as SATA, you know it's like what $99.99 hitting par
• 11:45
  right now. So, so you can see that that
• 11:48
  asset class is working. Both those instruments are
• 11:51
  working right now. I think that all of the
• 11:54
  uncertainty is really just opportunity.
• 11:58
  I love that ending. All the uncertainty is really
• 12:02
  just opportunity. You love to hear it.
• 12:04
  OK, guys, to put this in the context because he didn't
• 12:07
  actually put the numbers, but from my understanding and from
• 12:11
  my memory here, the credit market's about like what, $300
• 12:14
  trillion? So 1 to 2%, about what, 3 to $6
• 12:21
  trillion of demand coming into Bitcoin.
• 12:24
  If my math is correct, that's a multiple of, you know, two to
• 12:30
  three times the Bitcoin market cap.
• 12:32
  The only reason I'm bringing these numbers up because as
• 12:36
  Taylor said and as we've been watching, it does seem like the
• 12:39
  digital credit idea has left the station.
• 12:43
  It does seem like there's an incredible demand going into
• 12:45
  digital credit. Now obviously from our
• 12:48
  perspective, we're always like just buy spot Bitcoin.
• 12:54
  But again, from the credit market participant perspective,
• 13:00
  either they don't want to buy spot Bitcoin or further, they're
• 13:03
  not even allowed to buy spot Bitcoin.
• 13:05
  And now they have something that they can get into with
• 13:09
  incredible upside. Again, what we've been talking
• 13:14
  about, rather what I've been talking about and I've been
• 13:17
  trying to put this into context or rather into a framing model
• 13:21
  that obviously makes you extremely bullish.
• 13:24
  That's, that's my job here. Full disclosure, I am a Bitcoin
• 13:27
  propagandist. I am a, you know, I'm not biased
• 13:30
  Bitcoiner. I think this is going to
• 13:33
  explode. But as you see, the numbers
• 13:35
  aren't even that crazy. Just a little bit of capital
• 13:39
  finding its way into Bitcoin and and obviously relative little
• 13:43
  bit of capital. It would be huge.
• 13:45
  Bitcoin's market cap's at 1 1/2 trillion right now if $3
• 13:48
  trillion found its way into digital credit.
• 13:51
  STRC or the what is it Strata, the Stride product or I think
• 13:57
  it's Strata. This is an incredible demand
• 14:02
  coming into Bitcoin, something that we've never seen before.
• 14:07
  And I think This is why Saylor is finally going into the supply
• 14:11
  shock meme. He's finally saying what we
• 14:13
  look, he's basically saying Bitcoin simply Bitcoin headlines
• 14:17
  here. Bitcoins going to explode.
• 14:19
  You guys yell at me all the time for for the titles.
• 14:23
  He's saying it now he's starting to get bullish.
• 14:26
  Remember last week, he basically said that he believes that the
• 14:32
  crypto winter is over. And I think this is because
• 14:37
  we've seen, I literally said that on Friday that I think the
• 14:40
  reason he's saying that is because of the amount of demand
• 14:43
  that he's seeing going into this, quote, digital credit
• 14:47
  product that he's created. And further, the other people
• 14:49
  follow along. And that really leans into the
• 14:53
  idea that I've been saying it's not that much or sorry.
• 14:57
  It's not too crazy to think that the diminishing returns meme
• 15:01
  could fundamentally break here in the next year or so.
• 15:06
  I know everyone is still locked in on the four year cycle
• 15:10
  diminishing returned. Bigger number means it's harder
• 15:13
  to get bigger number and we got to attract a lot more capital.
• 15:18
  But it seems like the quote digital credit idea is the very
• 15:25
  thing that is going to attract a lot of capital.
• 15:27
  Now to give you an update because I have been doing this
• 15:30
  lately, here is the current numbers.
• 15:35
  Oh wow, it literally jumped 25,000,000 since I started the
• 15:40
  show. That's crazy.
• 15:43
  OK, so you saw yesterday, I think yesterday when I brought
• 15:45
  this up on the show, it was around 80 million.
• 15:47
  It finally ended at 200 million yesterday.
• 15:51
  When I got this website up this morning, it was 70 million and
• 15:57
  now it's at 94,000,000. So in about an hour, obviously
• 16:01
  it doesn't mean that in an hour it's attracted 2425 million.
• 16:05
  They probably just updated this, but you can see how crazy this
• 16:09
  is. There's still a lot of time
• 16:10
  left. So if he gets another $200
• 16:13
  million a day, I think they're going to have another billion
• 16:20
  dollar week into stretch. And if this happens, this is
• 16:25
  where we are starting to see the trend of exactly what Saylor
• 16:29
  just said. The digital credit has left the
• 16:32
  station. This is the hottest product
• 16:35
  right now. It's performing incredibly.
• 16:39
  It's getting a lot of attention because it's attracting so much
• 16:42
  capital. And a sailor likes to say that
• 16:44
  is that flywheel where you track more interest, you create more
• 16:50
  demand, they buy more Bitcoin. And this just keeps repeating
• 16:55
  and repeating and repeating. If Sailor is capable of doing
• 17:00
  another billion dollar week, and I really had my doubts yesterday
• 17:04
  when I was looking at the numbers, I'm like, oh, he's,
• 17:07
  he's going to, you know, slow down a little bit.
• 17:09
  But here you can see last week, 1.2 billion.
• 17:12
  I'm guessing today they're probably going to attract in the
• 17:15
  100 million. So it might end up at 200
• 17:17
  million, you know, 5 * 2. I think they might have a
• 17:21
  billion dollar week. Again, that's four weeks in a
• 17:24
  row. I think it is becoming very
• 17:29
  clear that what Saylor is saying is backed by much more than just
• 17:34
  me shilling hopium on the show. He's seeing stuff behind the
• 17:40
  scenes that is really making him be or rather making him go out
• 17:44
  there and say at the Bitcoin conference, obviously he needs
• 17:47
  some sound bites. Like I'll give that to you, he
• 17:49
  needs some sound bites, but he's going out there now and saying
• 17:53
  supply shock rally into the end of 2026.
• 18:00
  He's already put his head on the on the chopping block and said
• 18:03
  the crypto winter is over. Though again, I do have another
• 18:08
  little update from Andre for Bitwise kind of talking about
• 18:12
  where we currently stand in the market.
• 18:15
  We're not out of the woods yet. And and further, we did see
• 18:21
  that. The Bitcoin conference dump the
• 18:24
  the classic Bitcoin conference dump every single year.
• 18:29
  It did go a little lower. It's a it.
• 18:31
  From the high of yesterday, we're about 5% down.
• 18:35
  Obviously it's not crazy. It's a dump.
• 18:36
  For ants it I wouldn't really be concerned about it.
• 18:39
  It's not something to really panic, but it's playing out
• 18:42
  exactly as we all knew it was going to happen, which is just
• 18:46
  always hilarious to me that the biggest event in Bitcoin, the
• 18:50
  Bitcoin conference, the price always dumps.
• 18:54
  But anyway, sailors out here first day of the conference to I
• 18:59
  think what the numbers were is about 8000 people that were in
• 19:02
  attendance yesterday. I think today is going to be a
• 19:05
  little more. He's out there saying, look,
• 19:07
  this year is going to blow everyone's socks off.
• 19:11
  I think we're all going to look back and be a little mad that we
• 19:17
  weren't as bullish as we say we are, that we weren't stacking as
• 19:21
  hard as we like to say we do in the chat all the time.
• 19:28
  But all these factors are playing out, which we've been
• 19:30
  covering on this show for a long time.
• 19:32
  And I know a lot of us, I mean included, and you guys in the
• 19:36
  chat are not the happiest of or not the happiest about the
• 19:42
  institutional interest in Bitcoin.
• 19:44
  I have been saying that it seems like the biggest attack on
• 19:46
  Bitcoin is not, you know, what node you're running, It's that
• 19:50
  Wall Street wants your Bitcoin. They are delivering products to
• 19:55
  incentivize you to give up custody of your Bitcoin.
• 20:00
  So what are you going to do? You're going to acquire,
• 20:02
  accumulate more Bitcoin and make sure you take that into self
• 20:05
  custody. Because if you're giving up your
• 20:07
  Bitcoin right now and we're on the verge of an incredible
• 20:09
  rally, who knows what happens and who knows who's going to
• 20:14
  blow up? You probably won't know until we
• 20:17
  see some kind of drawdown again. But I would not risk it if what
• 20:22
  we think is going to happen and Bitcoin's going to have an
• 20:26
  incredible rally 2020 end of 202620272028 like the four year
• 20:33
  cycle kind of basically says the safest and best place for you to
• 20:37
  have your Bitcoin is under your control, Not your keys, not your
• 20:43
  cheese. We all know the memes.
• 20:46
  We can't forget our fundamentals here.
• 20:51
  But I'm going to side with Sailor on this one.
• 20:54
  I too also believe that we are probably seeing a supply shock
• 21:01
  building out right now in real time.
• 21:04
  I, I said it a couple of times. It feels like the foundational
• 21:07
  steps are being built out right now and it, it is kind of like
• 21:11
  the matrix meme, you know, like not like this.
• 21:13
  You guys know that one where the they unplug her and she's like
• 21:16
  crying, not like this. It isn't happening, happening
• 21:20
  exactly as maybe the cypherpunk perspective thought it would,
• 21:28
  but it's happening exactly as it was always going to happen,
• 21:32
  which is literally the theme of today's show.
• 21:35
  This is like the theme of today's show is Bitcoin is for
• 21:38
  enemies. Yes, there is literal, you know,
• 21:46
  ABC men at the conference speaking to us, trying to
• 21:51
  persuade us that they are on our side.
• 21:53
  And I will break some of this stuff down later on in the show,
• 21:57
  but we are seeing that look, it's almost a repeat of what we
• 22:01
  saw in November of 2024. And, and this is really where I
• 22:06
  start to probably become cynical fields here is because it is a
• 22:12
  lot of rhetoric and we have yet to see that much action.
• 22:17
  Though we did get like an announcement of an announcement.
• 22:20
  And I, and I didn't bring it up on today's show, but we did get
• 22:22
  an announcement of an announcement by, I believe it
• 22:24
  was Tom Willis, I believe, or Tom Wills.
• 22:27
  He said that we will get a very big strategic Bitcoin reserve
• 22:32
  announcement soon, in a few weeks.
• 22:34
  So he, he's literally doing an announcement of an announcement
• 22:37
  on stage. But I, I, I'm not playing that
• 22:39
  clip for you guys, but it does seem like maybe they are
• 22:44
  starting to realize that they need to get some action, like
• 22:49
  they need to do something concrete here, especially if the
• 22:54
  midterms are about to heat up, especially now that it seems as
• 22:59
  if the Clarity Act, it's still in limbo now it's been pushed
• 23:03
  back. Shouts out to Senator Lummis.
• 23:05
  I saw her, her, you know, her blurb yesterday, a little sound
• 23:09
  bite. Now they're saying mid-May,
• 23:12
  mid-May is when the Clarity Act is going to happen.
• 23:14
  I did see some people say that by June, it's going to happen,
• 23:17
  keeps getting delayed, right? But I think they're starting to
• 23:20
  realize like, OK, it's time. Everyone's got this feeling that
• 23:26
  it is time now for some action to happen.
• 23:30
  And if we do see the action, then maybe in hindsight, we'll
• 23:35
  look at the rhetoric that we're hearing today and we won't be so
• 23:39
  cynical about it. I will be a little cynical about
• 23:43
  it on today's show, I'm not going to lie.
• 23:44
  But hey, how about in the chat? Do you believe in the supply
• 23:51
  shock? I want to believe in the supply
• 23:53
  shock. Is it ever going to happen?
• 23:55
  Are we going to see this start to play out?
• 23:58
  Right now it really feels like with the amount of education
• 24:06
  reports, analysis from the institutions with the
• 24:09
  recommendations of anywhere between 1:00 to 20% of their
• 24:15
  clients portfolio should be in Bitcoin.
• 24:19
  With the supposed Clarity Act going through and whether that's
• 24:23
  going to be beneficial or not, the unlock of capital could be
• 24:26
  very, very swift and we could see an increased demand that
• 24:34
  we've never seen before. That's obviously the bull case.
• 24:37
  That's what I've been saying for a long time in regards to.
• 24:40
  The only thing I was bullish about the institutions coming
• 24:42
  was that they were supposed to pump our bags.
• 24:44
  And yet it seems like they've been shorting us and they've
• 24:47
  been making money on basically making us all poor again.
• 24:51
  So we'll see. We'll see.
• 24:53
  But Saylor starting to get a little more bullish than we've
• 24:56
  seen him in the last couple of weeks.
• 25:00
  Crypto winter is over, supply shot coming soon, Stretch is the
• 25:04
  best product ever, and bitcoins going to rise.
• 25:10
  And all of this is going to be a nice little story that we tell
• 25:15
  people in the past. So it's like, remember when we
• 25:17
  were buying Bitcoin AT70K and we were all mad, We were all
• 25:21
  disillusioned because we had the first Bitcoin president quote
• 25:25
  Bitcoin president and nothing happened.
• 25:27
  And we went sideways for a year. And then the end of 2026 and
• 25:32
  2025, we saw an incredible bull run the likes we've never seen
• 25:36
  before. I'm, I'm here for it.
• 25:38
  I, I really, I'm, I'm really going to agree with a couple of
• 25:42
  my friends when they say that the 2021 and the 2025 bull runs
• 25:49
  weren't real bull runs. And now we will see an
• 25:54
  incredible bull run. Hopefully it'll bring us back to
• 25:59
  the glory days of like 2017. It's what we all want.
• 26:02
  That's what we're all here for. We're like junkies waiting for
• 26:06
  the price to do what he did in the pack, what it did what, 10
• 26:09
  years ago? What a long.
• 26:11
  Ride and yet we are still obsessed with Bitcoin.
• 26:15
  We are still buying Bitcoin accumulating Bitcoin taking into
• 26:19
  self custody doing the Bitcoin first principles because we know
• 26:23
  the game and you know shouts out to Simon Dixon.
• 26:25
  He's been very strong on this message that if you don't like
• 26:31
  these people coming to Bitcoin if you don't like the people
• 26:34
  speaking at the Bitcoin conference then literally the
• 26:38
  only move you can do is acquire more Bitcoin and take that
• 26:41
  Bitcoin into self custody. I know it sounds almost naively.
• 26:45
  Easy, but that, that is the game here.
• 26:49
  Why they try to financialize Bitcoin?
• 26:53
  You just buy spot Bitcoin and take it into self custody.
• 26:56
  Or you know, like a lot of the stuff Jack Dorsey was talking
• 26:59
  about yesterday. You just use Bitcoin as money.
• 27:02
  You work for Bitcoin and you store it in cold storage.
• 27:07
  Anyways, I rambled enough. I rambled enough on the supply
• 27:11
  shock. I know I'm I'm not checking out
• 27:13
  the chat but. Someone does not want Sailor to
• 27:17
  be the richest man. Yeah, I agree with that.
• 27:23
  Supply shock is already here one Bitcoin is expensive for plebs
• 27:27
  already. Honestly, I was saying that this
• 27:29
  morning and and side tangent. I, I, I will keep the show
• 27:32
  going, but I I literally said the same thing this morning to
• 27:38
  Luke. I was like, dude, you know, it
• 27:41
  really does feel like us Bitcoiners right now.
• 27:46
  And maybe This is why a lot of people are tuning out of
• 27:50
  Bitcoin, why they're not as obsessed with Bitcoin, why they
• 27:53
  why they don't think it's still the exit that we think it is.
• 27:57
  It's because we literally got in the door like right before it
• 28:00
  closed. We got in at like 11:30 right
• 28:03
  before the clock strikes midnight.
• 28:06
  And now we're just kind of waiting and everyone else is
• 28:09
  outside the door. And they're like, I don't even
• 28:11
  know if I want to buy this. Why would I buy this?
• 28:13
  If the institutions are going to control it, centralized, it's,
• 28:17
  you know, what are what are all the things they've been saying?
• 28:20
  It's been captured. It's not the freedom tool we
• 28:24
  thought it was. You know, the government's
• 28:26
  embracing it. I thought this was for freedom
• 28:29
  and separation of money and state.
• 28:32
  But yeah, it does sort of feel like the price has gotten to a
• 28:35
  point. Or you might believe in the
• 28:37
  Veblen good idea that the higher the price, the more people want
• 28:40
  it. But it does feel like a lot of
• 28:42
  people have been priced out and now they're looking at Bitcoin
• 28:47
  and they're wondering whether they should get in.
• 28:49
  But we'll see once the price starts ripping, if we get
• 28:52
  another FOMO round like we've seen before.
• 28:56
  It's not clothes. People's ego is keeping them
• 28:59
  from buying. Yeah, let's say it's an
• 29:01
  optimistic take. Optimistic take.
• 29:04
  It's simple, but I'm so true. Yeah, agree.
• 29:08
  You guys, it's really this simple, but people want to
• 29:10
  complicate things. Anyways, let's keep the show
• 29:13
  moving. Again, we got an interesting
• 29:15
  clip from US Senator Nick Begich and he's reintroducing a bill.
• 29:22
  But it's not really so much about the bill that I find most
• 29:26
  interesting. It's about not only the rebrand
• 29:29
  of they bill. Uh oh, did it knock me off?
• 29:38
  No, I think I'm good. But he is starting to emphasize
• 29:43
  and we we are seeing this a little bit the, the reemphasis
• 29:46
  of self custody and the importance of self custody and
• 29:49
  how it's truly an American value.
• 29:52
  And then to in the news, I'm going to be covering probably
• 29:57
  the most contentious talk that we saw yesterday, which was
• 30:00
  Attorney General Todd Blanche and of course, FBI Director Kash
• 30:04
  Patel. There's an interesting clip
• 30:06
  coming out of it. A lot of people were celebrating
• 30:10
  it and then you then there's some probably less favorable
• 30:18
  coverage that I want to highlight.
• 30:22
  And then to wrap up the show, I'm I'm going to continue the
• 30:24
  coverage of where are we currently in the cycle
• 30:28
  considering on chain metrics. So that's today's show.
• 30:30
  I'll be right back after the commercial break.
• 30:34
  Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Well Infinite.
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  use promo code simply to get 15% off anything on the
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  stampseed.com store. You guys are cracking me up in
• 32:47
  the chat. I I.
• 32:49
  Hopefully I'm back. I I did notice that it did.
• 32:52
  I got kicked off for a second low bandwidth, but I should, I
• 32:55
  should be back at least it looks like it's back to me.
• 32:58
  So anyways, you know, I do the show every single day, guys, and
• 33:05
  there's still issues and, and it's not me, OK, It's not me.
• 33:10
  Whatever, whatever, you guys don't care.
• 33:12
  You guys don't care about me, but it's not it's not my fault,
• 33:16
  alright? Anyways, the current Bitcoin
• 33:18
  price is 76,000 and $40. I repeat 76040, which is a
• 33:23
  discount of 39.7% from all time high.
• 33:27
  We have definitely at least up to this point secured that 1 1/2
• 33:31
  trillion dollar market cap and the current block height TikTok
• 33:35
  next block 947 and 48 I repeat 947048 OK, so as.
• 33:46
  This is not a wig, guys. OK, this is not a wig.
• 33:52
  Enough about my hair, guys. So you're making me
• 33:54
  self-conscious. Anyways, there's a clip of this
• 33:59
  was actually if you guys were watching yesterday's show after
• 34:03
  the first break, I was like, oh, we got a we got a breaking news
• 34:06
  story coming out, but obviously I couldn't package it.
• 34:09
  I couldn't couldn't get it uploaded for you guys.
• 34:12
  But this is what I was talking about.
• 34:13
  It was this clip here of US Congressman Nick Begich.
• 34:17
  He's reintroducing his bill, but he's going hard on the
• 34:24
  protection of self custody. Your Bitcoin, which personally,
• 34:29
  from a hardcore Bitcoin perspective, I'm like, like,
• 34:34
  yeah, I know Nico says all the time we need to what do you
• 34:37
  always say codify the protection of self custody?
• 34:43
  I'm like, bro, I don't need to ask your permission to do what I
• 34:49
  can do already. That just seems as backwards to
• 34:52
  me, Okay. But I do find it interesting
• 34:55
  that we are hearing US Congressman, obviously he's been
• 34:59
  orange paled. He's been talking with the
• 35:01
  Bitcoin community for a long time now at this point.
• 35:03
  And it's just interesting to hear you as congressman.
• 35:06
  And again, this could be rhetoric, it could be hot air.
• 35:09
  Obviously, I think they know who they're talking to and they want
• 35:13
  us to support them. So that I keep that in mind.
• 35:19
  But it's still interesting to me to hear, you know, politicians
• 35:26
  say stuff, sort of what would be what we've been saying.
• 35:29
  I've said on the show a lot of times, you know, Bitcoin is as
• 35:32
  American as apple pie. And then everyone's like, well,
• 35:35
  isn't apple pie French? I'm like, yeah, whatever.
• 35:37
  You know, the meme. I think Bitcoin is truly
• 35:43
  exporting the American ideals to the rest of the world.
• 35:45
  And maybe that's just because an American and you guys are like
• 35:48
  this silly American. Look at it.
• 35:50
  Look how he sounds. He thinks America is the
• 35:52
  greatest and you know, the Constitution.
• 35:55
  So good. Yeah, whatever.
• 35:58
  I'm an American. OK, We have our politicians
• 36:01
  saying this while on the other side of the pond.
• 36:04
  What are your politicians saying?
• 36:07
  We want to. We want to have CBD CS.
• 36:10
  You can't save your money. Look, I'll take this over that
• 36:14
  any single day of the week. So let's watch the clip and we
• 36:18
  talked about individuals self custodying, their corporations
• 36:21
  self custodying, governments potentially self custodying.
• 36:25
  Can you maybe hit on some of those latter points?
• 36:29
  Should exchanges and corporations, should they be
• 36:31
  self custodying? Is it easier to just give it to
• 36:33
  a qualified custodian? Where do you kind of land on
• 36:35
  that point? Well, I'll tell you, you know,
• 36:38
  history can be quite instructive when looking at the importance
• 36:42
  of self custody. If you go back to 1933 and you
• 36:47
  had an executive order from the president at that time to
• 36:51
  confiscate privately held gold and it was effective.
• 36:58
  It was effective because gold at that time was viewed as the
• 37:01
  money supply. The government was short of
• 37:03
  money supply, wanted to increase its money supply and went out
• 37:07
  acquired in my view, illegally this these, these gold assets
• 37:13
  from individuals and and then revalued and devalued the dollar
• 37:19
  a year later. And it it really impacted people
• 37:22
  who had been savers of actual money of hard money at that
• 37:26
  time. And I think when we Fast forward
• 37:29
  to today, we need to make sure that that doesn't happen again.
• 37:33
  And I think it's in the best interest actually of exchanges
• 37:37
  to support self custody because it's a lot harder for a
• 37:41
  government under pressure to to confiscate millions or maybe 10s
• 37:46
  of millions of privately held wallets than it is to go to one
• 37:50
  of a dozen, a few dozen places and confiscate a critical asset
• 37:55
  like Bitcoin. So I think it's important.
• 37:57
  I think it's good for the ecosystem.
• 37:58
  I think it's good for everybody to make sure that we have laws
• 38:01
  that enshrine the ability to self custody.
• 38:05
  And if you don't mind, I did bring from my bill the Bitcoin
• 38:11
  Act, which I carry with Senator Lummus in the House, the
• 38:15
  language as it relates. To.
• 38:17
  Self custody. Affirmation of Rights This act
• 38:21
  affirms and protects the rights of persons to maintain full
• 38:24
  lawful control over the Bitcoin and other digital assets of
• 38:27
  those individuals, recognizing that the ability to maintain
• 38:31
  self custody of private keys is fundamental to the principles of
• 38:36
  financial sovereignty, privacy and personal liberty in the
• 38:40
  digital age. Hey, hey, guys, come on.
• 38:54
  Is that not some good rhetoric? Look, I'll, I'll be a little
• 38:57
  cynical. Is that not some good rhetoric
• 38:59
  there? Man, you got to love that.
• 39:02
  I mean, a sitting US Congressman talking about Executive Order 61
• 39:07
  O2 1933 when we confiscated the gold from asset holders,
• 39:12
  basically saying, hey, it's a lot harder for the government to
• 39:15
  take millions of people self custodying their Bitcoin then if
• 39:19
  it's all the Bitcoin is basically legally forced to stay
• 39:22
  on the exchanges. Like this is the stuff that we
• 39:28
  want to be said. Like this is the stuff we want
• 39:31
  more people to hear. Say what you want about him
• 39:34
  being a politician, but have we not said the same thing on this
• 39:39
  show multiple times? That's some signal right there.
• 39:44
  OK, Obviously, again, he's at the Bitcoin conference.
• 39:48
  He wants to get his bill pushed through.
• 39:51
  At this point, a lot of the Bitcoin bills that we've seen
• 39:55
  are usually DOA. But you, you got to love to hear
• 40:00
  that. I don't know about you guys, but
• 40:02
  you know what I was thinking during that clip.
• 40:05
  It was Dang, I'm blanking on that cartoon.
• 40:08
  The the puppet movie. Yeah, it actually it's just like
• 40:10
  America. Fuck yeah.
• 40:12
  Like let's go. That's.
• 40:14
  What I was thinking throughout the whole clip, Yeah.
• 40:17
  Are you not entertained? Like for reals guys, that was
• 40:24
  some good. Stuff.
• 40:25
  OK, that is the type of rhetoric that I want to hear politicians
• 40:31
  saying. Imagine if everyone, all the
• 40:34
  congressmen were as orange, pailed and based as this guy, US
• 40:41
  Congressman Nick Begich. We'd be in a totally different
• 40:45
  world. And that does lead to a kind of
• 40:47
  a broader conversation that I brought up on the show multiple
• 40:50
  times where I know a lot of us bitcoiners don't like politics.
• 40:56
  We've been, how do I put it, pushed out of politics.
• 41:03
  You know, people ask me all the time, like, you know, what side
• 41:06
  of the aisle are you? What will you know?
• 41:08
  Who do you support? And I'm usually, I steal the
• 41:10
  line from Eric Case. I'm like, I'm politically
• 41:11
  homeless. I see some things maybe from
• 41:15
  both sides that are like, OK, I understand it, but none of it
• 41:19
  really encapsulates what I believe as a Bitcoiner.
• 41:25
  But hearing someone like this say what I believe, it's a
• 41:28
  bitcoiner, it's hard for me to not fall for again, being a
• 41:33
  little cynical here for the propaganda.
• 41:36
  You got to love it, man. Like this is the stuff you want
• 41:39
  to see politicians all around the world saying.
• 41:42
  This is good stuff here. OK, I'm cynical here.
• 41:46
  Yeah, yeah, me too, bro. I know.
• 41:48
  I know politicians lie. I know politicians say what they
• 41:51
  want the audience to hear. Obviously I know all that.
• 41:54
  I'm as cynical and sarcastic as anyone else, but man, that was
• 42:00
  some good stuff. OK, It was projection.
• 42:02
  You probably probably, man, it was still good, OK.
• 42:11
  I guess you have no clue then. OK, all right, I get it.
• 42:16
  You guys don't like politics? I have AI, have a very real
• 42:21
  distrust for politicians myself. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 42:28
  Wig party, guys, This is my real hair, OK?
• 42:31
  This is my natural hair, OK? I have some luscious locks, all
• 42:35
  right. All right, love of my hair.
• 42:39
  All right. Now, now we're going to get into
• 42:42
  the real meat of the conference. Yesterday.
• 42:46
  This was probably the most anticipated speech, at least
• 42:51
  from a social media perspective. But actually, this was probably
• 42:54
  the most contentious speech that happened yesterday, and I do
• 42:59
  have a sound bite for it. I will, you know, breakdown what
• 43:02
  he said and I will give you kind of the, I guess the real full
• 43:10
  breakdown of of what was said yesterday by Attorney General
• 43:13
  Todd Blanche in regards to the speech titled like code is
• 43:19
  speech. I think it was I think that was
• 43:21
  the title of these this conversation.
• 43:24
  And everyone was freaking out heading into this.
• 43:26
  Like how do you have the attorney general and the FBI
• 43:30
  director talking at the Bitcoin conference and their keynote is
• 43:38
  titled CODIS speech when we have open source developers in jail
• 43:45
  for this very thing. This, you know, actually it
• 43:51
  probably wasn't the most popular speech because I saw some I, I,
• 43:54
  I didn't pull them up for you guys, but I did see some more
• 43:57
  behind the scenes and, and the. The audience was like completely
• 44:00
  empty, so bitcoiners obviously didn't really care.
• 44:03
  But this was the most contentious conversation that
• 44:07
  was had yesterday, so let's get into it.
• 44:12
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  code simply. OK, guys.
• 46:01
  So I'm. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 46:04
  Johnny go. We have a booth over there, man.
• 46:06
  Or actually, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll I'll update you on, on what
• 46:12
  I where I think Miko is right now.
• 46:13
  But anyways, as I was saying, probably the most contentious
• 46:17
  speech yesterday was the keynote by the US Attorney General, Todd
• 46:25
  Blanche and the FBI Director Kash Patel.
• 46:29
  And there was an interesting sound bite coming out of this,
• 46:34
  and it does seem bullish on the surface.
• 46:38
  It did seem like a good sound bite.
• 46:41
  Now, obviously, maybe it's because us Bitcoiners are very
• 46:47
  cynical, untrustworthy, not what?
• 46:49
  We're not untrustworthy. We don't trust the politicians.
• 46:54
  A lot of people just out of this is hot air that they're just
• 47:00
  saying what they want us to believe or what they want us to
• 47:02
  hear. And they're not actually going
• 47:05
  to do what they said in this clip.
• 47:07
  But let me just play the clip for you guys and then we can
• 47:10
  we'll we'll have a little back and forth in the chat as I, you
• 47:14
  know, kind of give you my initial reaction to it.
• 47:17
  And then from what I saw, a lot of people kind of breaking down
• 47:21
  in detail what was said. So here is Attorney General Todd
• 47:24
  Blanch in regards to the clip that was going around of they
• 47:29
  will no longer prosecute Bitcoin developers.
• 47:34
  And with the FBI as well, the basic principle is that if you
• 47:39
  are developing software, if you are a coder, if you are part of
• 47:43
  that process and you are not the third party user and you are not
• 47:47
  helping and knowing the third party is using what you
• 47:50
  developed to commit crimes, you are not going to be investigated
• 47:54
  and not going to be charged. And obviously facts matter
• 47:58
  because if, if, if you're laundering money or violating
• 48:01
  sanctions, the mere fact that you happen to be a coder doesn't
• 48:04
  excuse you from criminal liability.
• 48:06
  So there's a distinction there. And that's why the facts of a
• 48:09
  particular case are very important.
• 48:11
  But I really need coders to understand, I really need the
• 48:14
  industry to understand that we have fundamentally changed the
• 48:17
  game when it comes to our investigations.
• 48:19
  And if you, if, if you're a coder out there and you're,
• 48:22
  you're listening to me speak and you are under investigation or
• 48:25
  you have to hire a lawyer to, to respond to subpoenas, you, your
• 48:29
  lawyer should feel very comfortable communicating with
• 48:32
  the FBI, communicating with the prosecutor on the case and
• 48:35
  making sure that they are not violating them, violating my
• 48:38
  memo. Because if they are, that can be
• 48:41
  elevated all the way to me, but certainly elevated within the
• 48:44
  department because we are not doing that anymore.
• 48:46
  And, and I know that there's some lingering cases that, that
• 48:49
  are very fact specific and, and very procedurally complicated.
• 48:53
  And I'm not saying that as an excuse.
• 48:55
  It's just, it's a fact. It's the way it is.
• 48:57
  But, but those, those cases are, are, are something that that
• 49:00
  we're continuing to deal with. But, but make, make, let me make
• 49:04
  myself crystal clear that that's, I want to put my money
• 49:07
  where my mouth is. And, and I expect director Patel
• 49:09
  does as well. And, and when we say that we're
• 49:12
  not, we're not conducting those type of prosecutions anymore,
• 49:15
  we, we mean it. And and I and I want to make
• 49:18
  sure that that that is felt throughout the industry.
• 49:22
  OK. So Chad let's, I don't know,
• 49:26
  what do we do? One, if you believe him, 2 if
• 49:29
  you don't, and and then we'll talk about it.
• 49:31
  But as you can see from the beginning of the clip, the main
• 49:35
  contention is this idea of you can create open source software,
• 49:41
  you can create the software and you won't be legally liable for
• 49:50
  anything people do on that. If you don't know, I obviously
• 49:54
  I'm butchering that, but that's basically what he said.
• 49:56
  As long as you are not aware of what is going on and you're not
• 50:00
  actively pushing for money laundering, criminal activity,
• 50:06
  avoiding sanctions, then you will not get prosecuted again,
• 50:10
  rewind it. You can hear him, but that's, I
• 50:13
  guess my layman terms of saying what he said.
• 50:18
  And then further, and he did say that they're no longer going to
• 50:21
  be prosecuting such cases. But there are some lingering
• 50:26
  cases, which as you guys know, we all know basically what those
• 50:29
  are. It's the Roman Storm, Tornado
• 50:31
  Cash case and of course the Samurai wallet deaths.
• 50:35
  And these are the big precedents that we've been covering for a
• 50:38
  long time here on the show. And I did see a couple of
• 50:43
  updates here. First one I want to cover is by
• 50:48
  Eleanor Terrett. Of course, you guys know I'm a
• 50:50
  huge fan of her work. She's been doing extremely good
• 50:53
  work covering Bitcoin or crypto in America and the Washington,
• 51:03
  DC politician's view on Bitcoin and how this is all interacting.
• 51:07
  She's been very good coverage on the Clarity Act.
• 51:09
  Now, she dropped this tweet yesterday.
• 51:12
  So Eleanor goes new. I asked Roman Storm's defense
• 51:15
  team if the Attorney General Todd Blanche's comments at the
• 51:21
  Bitcoin conference today gave them any hope.
• 51:24
  Storm's lawyer, Carrie Curtis Axel, said no, quote, DOJ cannot
• 51:30
  credibly claim it has, quote, changed the game while still
• 51:33
  persecuting Roman Storm. The president SDNY is trying to
• 51:37
  set is wholly at odds with Blanche's memo and the
• 51:41
  president's policy. Axel also pushed back on
• 51:44
  Blanche's claim that cases can be elevated all the way to the
• 51:47
  top. More on that to come.
• 51:51
  So this is from one of the big cases that he basically talked
• 51:55
  about saying some lingering cases.
• 52:01
  And this is what the official response.
• 52:03
  Well, I wouldn't say official response, but what a response
• 52:06
  from one of the lawyers said. So they're not taking this as
• 52:11
  bullish as maybe a lot of people on Twitter were saying.
• 52:15
  If you saw this circulating, a lot of people were saying, oh,
• 52:18
  Samurai wallet devs are going to be free now because of what he
• 52:20
  said. I'm still a tad bit skeptical
• 52:25
  here. And going further, there is, you
• 52:29
  know, maybe a less faithful reading of this because he did
• 52:34
  basically said like, you won't be arrested for coding Bitcoin
• 52:37
  privacy tech as long as you don't use it yourself, as long
• 52:41
  as not only you don't use it yourself, but as long as you
• 52:45
  know that a third party user isn't using it in criminal
• 52:49
  activities. And this is where I think the
• 52:52
  big contention happened on Twitter.
• 52:55
  It is shouts out to low elites from the rage.
• 53:00
  I I will. She does get a little spicy
• 53:03
  here. I will read this.
• 53:06
  With a APG reading here and Lola goes, have you been celebrating
• 53:12
  Todd Blanche's comments on developer protection from
• 53:14
  yesterday's Bitcoin conference panel?
• 53:16
  Congratulations, you are regarded what what Blanche
• 53:21
  really announced yesterday that the DOJ continues to seek and
• 53:25
  intentionally create the legal circumstances to continue to
• 53:28
  prosecute non custodial developers.
• 53:30
  How? By making a single important
• 53:32
  distinction. Knowingly transmitting a legal
• 53:35
  fund will continue to be a crime in the US whether you have
• 53:38
  custody of funds or not. This means that anyone sending a
• 53:41
  non custodial developer an e-mail message or XDM on
• 53:45
  knowledge of illicit use could send you to prison for decades
• 53:48
  to come. Worse, even Googling a hack
• 53:51
  could be used to construe criminal liability.
• 53:54
  How do we know this? Because this is exactly what
• 53:57
  they are doing in the Roman Storm case.
• 54:00
  Roman storm case. Non custodial developers
• 54:03
  transmit funds and thereby knowing of the transmission of
• 54:05
  illicit proceeds creates criminal liability for sanctions
• 54:09
  evasion, for money laundering, and for money transmissions laws
• 54:11
  carrying a total of up to 45 years in prison.
• 54:15
  If I were developing non custodial software in the USI
• 54:18
  would get out as fast as I can. If I wasn't in the USI would
• 54:21
  make sure to not make my software available to US users
• 54:24
  and ensure to not do anything at all to give these politicians
• 54:29
  jurisdiction. The US is not a safe place for
• 54:33
  Bitcoin. So that's the rages read on
• 54:37
  this. And first of all, I am a huge
• 54:40
  fan of Lola Elites. I usually do defer to a lot of
• 54:44
  the things she says because she reads the stuff and she does
• 54:48
  have a very hyper focused on the protections of not only privacy,
• 54:54
  but of open source developers. So I think this read is probably
• 55:01
  what was said. If you are being a little more
• 55:03
  cynical on what that sound bite was saying.
• 55:06
  Obviously a lot of people are trying to take this as a win and
• 55:10
  I I would love for it to be an actual win if we do see here.
• 55:15
  I mean, he did say, I want to put my, you know, my money where
• 55:17
  my mouth is. So maybe it's not going to be a
• 55:21
  lot of hot air. Maybe this isn't just them
• 55:24
  trying to appease the crowd, though.
• 55:26
  I know that that is the cynical view here.
• 55:30
  But as we've seen, I mean, he very clearly basically said as
• 55:34
  long as you don't knowingly know that your software is being used
• 55:40
  criminally, you won't be liable. So there's still this push for
• 55:49
  Bitcoin to be the crypto capital world.
• 55:52
  And there's a lot of headlines on this idea that we are in fact
• 55:55
  the Bitcoin capital of the world.
• 55:57
  And I'm honestly like, I want to believe it.
• 56:00
  But as we've covered on this show, when we saw the privacy
• 56:04
  wars really coming up coming tough, I think that is when Nico
• 56:12
  started crashing out. That's when he got a little more
• 56:14
  cynical. I think I've been pretty cynical
• 56:16
  in the whole political process since the jump.
• 56:19
  So I would like to believe that this is as bullish as everyone's
• 56:23
  making it out to be. I do like to have opposing ideas
• 56:27
  here. This is why I usually give you
• 56:31
  like a bullish take and then I'll give you the cynical take
• 56:33
  so that we can, I would argue, have a more balanced nuance take
• 56:37
  of what is being said instead of just always completely bullish
• 56:41
  about it. But let me see.
• 56:43
  Let me see is there? Let me see, did did you guys
• 56:49
  throw any ones in there 21.5 cap 21.5.
• 57:00
  Dan B. That is the big contention.
• 57:02
  Mixers that don't hold fun to any time are protected.
• 57:04
  That is basically what the Roman Storm Tornado Cash case and the
• 57:13
  Samurai Wallet dev like. That was the big contention.
• 57:15
  And as we saw, it really didn't mean much because they basically
• 57:20
  made the case that they got some emails, you know, they got some
• 57:25
  DMS and some of their marketing was basically saying, hey, come
• 57:29
  use our product, even if you're doing stuff that skirts the line
• 57:35
  here. That's what made them liable.
• 57:38
  And that's why that clip is. So I would say interesting and
• 57:42
  maybe contentious because there is a little bit of Gray area
• 57:47
  here of what what it means. If what it means to know that
• 57:51
  people are using your software for criminal activities.
• 57:59
  Pardon those that have been, then I'll vote one yes.
• 58:02
  So the US should end the dollar? Because they're aware that is
• 58:06
  honestly, that's such a Bitcoin, such a Bitcoin.
• 58:10
  Take it easy. Don't communicate with the
• 58:12
  users. Yeah, maybe.
• 58:15
  Maybe be anonymous. Actually, I forgot to bring this
• 58:18
  one up. Let me bring up Giacomo's
• 58:22
  response to this, and we'll have one more editor.
• 58:28
  How is my Twitter acting up? Is Twitter down for you guys?
• 58:34
  Oh, dude, it's it is down. Am I cooked?
• 58:42
  Oh, here we go. OK, we're back.
• 58:43
  No, dude. Did I save it?
• 58:45
  All right, Twitter's not working for me.
• 58:47
  Wow, dude, what an L OK, let me see.
• 58:51
  Did I save this? Did I put it in my notes?
• 59:00
  Dude, Twitter's not working. Oh, did I get banned?
• 59:06
  Yo wow, am I banned dude? Am I cooked guys?
• 59:15
  Did I just get banned? What is going on?
• 59:20
  I didn't even post anything this morning.
• 59:25
  Yo. OK, let me.
• 59:29
  Let me. OK, We're back.
• 59:31
  We're back. Dude, I just thought I got
• 59:35
  banned live. What's going on here?
• 59:40
  All right, here we go. I found it.
• 59:43
  Here's Giacomo's take. You know, hardcore bitcoiner.
• 59:51
  And he goes quote if you are coder working on privacy and
• 59:55
  freedom tech and you're not sure if we are sending armed goons to
• 59:58
  hurt and kidnap you for your. Code, please reach out to us,
• 1:00:01
  tell us who and where you are so that we'll make sure clarifying
• 1:00:04
  whether we are. Stay anonymous, guys.
• 1:00:07
  Use disposable nymphs. If you have to fall for an
• 1:00:10
  obvious trap, at least wait for a less embarrassingly obvious
• 1:00:14
  one. I gotta love it.
• 1:00:17
  Gotta love it. OK, what's going on here?
• 1:00:21
  Let me see. OK, OK, everyone.
• 1:00:26
  OK, it's down for everyone. Too OK that was that was
• 1:00:30
  interesting OK, so let's. Damn, my Twitter's down now.
• 1:00:39
  Well, I'll, we'll, we'll shoot the shit to wrap up today's
• 1:00:41
  show. So last commercial break.
• 1:00:43
  I'll be right back. My my Twitter's down, guys kind
• 1:00:47
  of naked. I want to give a shout out to
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  our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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• 1:02:27
  Yeah, hold on, hold on. The the rumble chat.
• 1:02:30
  Rumble chat. Who is this mind of Elijah X
• 1:02:33
  goes down show ends law. Getting banned on Twitter is a
• 1:02:39
  rite of passage. No, well, I'm not banned.
• 1:02:43
  I'm a I'm a good shit poster. OK, I just.
• 1:02:46
  I don't say anything crazy, all right?
• 1:02:48
  Anyways, someone was asking, I forgive me, I forget who it was
• 1:02:52
  a minute ago. They're going to meet Nico.
• 1:02:54
  Well, check out Nico. Apparently he's racing some cars
• 1:02:58
  right now. Here I am in the dungeon,
• 1:03:00
  sweating. I'm doing work here, and Nico
• 1:03:05
  gets to go race freaking supercars.
• 1:03:10
  Guys, it's not even fair anymore.
• 1:03:18
  No, I'm trolling. I'm trolling.
• 1:03:20
  It's all good. It's all good.
• 1:03:23
  But yeah. Nico will be at the conference.
• 1:03:26
  We do have a booth, bro. So there's a booth.
• 1:03:29
  I don't know where it is. I obviously I'm not there, but
• 1:03:32
  there's a booth there. We got the signs, you know, go
• 1:03:35
  there. I know we have some of our team
• 1:03:37
  there. Unfortunately, I'm not there,
• 1:03:42
  so, you know, going to miss out on me.
• 1:03:44
  But Nico should be back. I'm sure he'll be back at the
• 1:03:47
  conference later on today. I don't know when he's doing his
• 1:03:50
  keynote stuff. I think he had one yesterday.
• 1:03:53
  I don't know if he has any more appearances today, but he'll be
• 1:03:58
  around. They're around.
• 1:03:59
  So, you know, go check him out. Anyways, let me see, is my
• 1:04:03
  Twitter working? Yeah.
• 1:04:06
  OK. This is kind of what I want to
• 1:04:09
  talk about because I was covering this yesterday and I,
• 1:04:11
  and I really love Andre's coverage here.
• 1:04:14
  Obviously he works at Bitwise, he's got the data to back it up,
• 1:04:18
  but this is kind of what we're seeing right now.
• 1:04:22
  This is the general sentiment, I think from people that aren't
• 1:04:26
  biased. And by the biased, I mean that
• 1:04:29
  we're going to be seeing a prolonged bear market until
• 1:04:33
  October or, you know, Q3 of this year.
• 1:04:38
  Everyone's kind of watching the 82801K range right here and I
• 1:04:43
  know you guys don't really like the Opti Tai know actually some
• 1:04:48
  of you guys do, some of you guys do like it.
• 1:04:50
  But I think this is this is just to give us a framework for where
• 1:04:56
  we currently are right now. And it's really going back to
• 1:05:01
  the idea of should you be smashed buying right now?
• 1:05:06
  Should you be waiting for a dip? Wait for the Bitcoin conference
• 1:05:09
  dip to. Finally end and then maybe we'll
• 1:05:11
  get a little more price action to the upside.
• 1:05:14
  But here is the breakdown. The real question for everyone,
• 1:05:18
  of course, isn't whether Bitcoin is going to return into a new
• 1:05:24
  bull market. It's at what price point does
• 1:05:27
  that psychology flip? I don't think anyone here, at
• 1:05:31
  least if you've been around for a while, has any doubt that
• 1:05:35
  we're going to go into another bull market.
• 1:05:37
  We've been around long enough. We know how this plays out.
• 1:05:43
  Bitcoin. 'S not going to 0A bull market's
• 1:05:46
  coming back. It's not a if, it's just when.
• 1:05:49
  When are we going to see that psychological shift?
• 1:05:51
  When are we going to see the FOMO start to come back, the
• 1:05:54
  price start to get a little frothy.
• 1:05:57
  And here's probably the best breakdown, at least maybe this
• 1:06:00
  is the best breakdown to me 'cause it's confirming my bias.
• 1:06:03
  And you guys know I I only trust the science when it confirms my
• 1:06:06
  bias. So right now the market is
• 1:06:08
  staring at a massive confluence of cost bases between 80 and 81
• 1:06:13
  K. Our latest status shows that the
• 1:06:15
  true market mean the short term holder cost bases and the US
• 1:06:18
  spot ETF cost bases are all clustering at this exact level
• 1:06:23
  of 82801K. This isn't just a random number,
• 1:06:27
  it is the demarcation line. This 801K level is a significant
• 1:06:31
  technical indicator in our on chain models as it could
• 1:06:35
  represent the shift from a period of aggregate market
• 1:06:38
  stress to one of broad based profitability.
• 1:06:41
  Until we reclaim this level, we remain in a late stage bare
• 1:06:45
  phase defined by seller exhaustion, which is what we
• 1:06:50
  were covering the other day. And here.
• 1:06:53
  Let me let me zoom in here on this chart Bitcoin momentum
• 1:06:56
  levels, Bitcoin price true market mean I'm.
• 1:07:00
  I'm color blind, so I. Can't really tell which lines
• 1:07:03
  which guys, sorry but ADK. Oh, here we go, ADK.
• 1:07:08
  Line, that's what we're all watching here, guys, OK?
• 1:07:12
  Which? Is what I've been saying and now
• 1:07:15
  I have the data, the on chain metrics and the cost basis for
• 1:07:21
  what, What do you say again, cost basis for the ETF and the
• 1:07:25
  short term holder and the true market mean?
• 1:07:30
  80K to 801K. Obviously, we got the classic
• 1:07:35
  every year Bitcoin conference dump.
• 1:07:37
  It's roughly down 5%. Let's see, are we dumping more?
• 1:07:42
  We've been dumping more every time I do a show now.
• 1:07:46
  We are currently at 76 one. It's not that bad so.
• 1:07:54
  The real number that we're probably all watching is that 80
• 1:08:01
  to 80. 1K which is to say. Another way, if we breakthrough
• 1:08:04
  the 81 Ki think it's pretty safe to say that we're not going to
• 1:08:10
  be in a bear market until October.
• 1:08:14
  I mean, who knows, maybe there's one more dip in US.
• 1:08:16
  Maybe we got a, maybe you. Got one more chance to get some
• 1:08:20
  cheap sets before. The game starts to have some
• 1:08:30
  fun. You guys are funny.
• 1:08:37
  Let's see. Let's see.
• 1:08:39
  He's schmoozing Opticos. Nico's right?
• 1:08:42
  No, dude. Nico's my handler, bro.
• 1:08:45
  You got it mixed up. I did get rugged.
• 1:08:48
  You always have Matchbox Optic. Yeah, dude, I I get Hot Wheels,
• 1:08:54
  bro. Daddy.
• 1:08:55
  Oh, thank you. For the Super chat to $5.
• 1:08:58
  Since you got left behind. Appreciate it man.
• 1:09:03
  Oh, Misfit, Thank you. Man, I appreciate.
• 1:09:05
  That I don't. I don't know.
• 1:09:07
  I don't know about that. I will.
• 1:09:12
  Say that we do have a lot of fun here.
• 1:09:17
  You know what? You know, I, I.
• 1:09:18
  Was actually thinking about this.
• 1:09:21
  You know why I think you guys really enjoy the.
• 1:09:26
  Opti Show. The Simply Opti shows and this
• 1:09:30
  is not to pat myself on the back 'cause I cause I've really been
• 1:09:33
  thinking about this is if you've ever met me in person, I'm like,
• 1:09:39
  I'm literally the same guy that I am on the.
• 1:09:41
  Show, obviously. I, I probably have to tone it
• 1:09:43
  down a little bit on the live show, but this is me like I, I
• 1:09:49
  tell you exactly what I think. Obviously I got to tone it down
• 1:09:52
  a little bit, but I, I think, I think.
• 1:09:56
  Part of. What has connected you guys with
• 1:09:58
  me on this show is there is a a sense of.
• 1:10:03
  Authenticity here like I, I. This is me.
• 1:10:06
  If you talk to me in person, I'm the same way on and off the
• 1:10:09
  show. Again, I'm probably a little
• 1:10:11
  more extreme off the show because it's like, hey, we're in
• 1:10:13
  person. There's no cameras.
• 1:10:15
  You know, we we can have a little fun here.
• 1:10:17
  We're, we're, we're in IRL, you know, life's let's.
• 1:10:20
  Let's have a little fun but. I appreciate it Misfit Droid I I
• 1:10:24
  really do appreciate it. Let's see episode.
• 1:10:32
  I I don't get this episode 1492 talking.
• 1:10:36
  About a supply shock that will usher in a new world.
• 1:10:42
  I don't know man, it's 1492. Oh wait, are you talking about
• 1:10:49
  the? Year 1492.
• 1:10:55
  Hey, hey, let's go. Yo, you're funny anyways guys.
• 1:11:05
  I do have to. Give you 1 update here on.
• 1:11:08
  The show I told you guys yesterday, tomorrow might.
• 1:11:14
  Be a little weird again. They are.
• 1:11:16
  Redoing the roof here on the studio, there hasn't been that
• 1:11:20
  much noise. I'd I'm I'm really hoping that
• 1:11:23
  the noise that I am hearing isn't picked up on the mic, but
• 1:11:26
  tomorrow I might have to stream from my apartment.
• 1:11:31
  I'm still unsure if it's going to be a little too chaotic in
• 1:11:34
  here. The first two days have seemed
• 1:11:35
  pretty chill, so tomorrow it might not be the fancy studio.
• 1:11:41
  I might have to do the first stream since we got the studio
• 1:11:45
  from just the home apt. I will be bringing some of the
• 1:11:49
  gear home tonight. I will come into studio tomorrow
• 1:11:54
  so. I'm going to attempt.
• 1:11:55
  To make sure that I'm streaming from the studio tomorrow, but if
• 1:12:00
  for whatever reason it's a little too loud in here or there
• 1:12:02
  might be fumes in here. If I don't, you know, if I can
• 1:12:07
  actually stream from here tomorrow, I will we.
• 1:12:12
  Are going to have a show tomorrow.
• 1:12:15
  Obviously this is the second day of the Bitcoin conference.
• 1:12:18
  I will give you all the highlights that I find to be the
• 1:12:21
  biggest signal coming out of the conference and we'll talk about
• 1:12:24
  that tomorrow, but I'm I'm going to need you guys to.
• 1:12:29
  Be a little. Lenient on me because I might
• 1:12:32
  not be able to stream from the studio tomorrow.
• 1:12:35
  I might have to stream from from my apartment and it's it's not
• 1:12:40
  as nice as this. I don't.
• 1:12:41
  I don't have. AI don't have a set.
• 1:12:42
  Up for streaming in my apartment, 'cause I come here to
• 1:12:45
  stream every single day. OK, so I got that head.
• 1:12:51
  She goes, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
• 1:12:53
  So anyways, yeah, I'm from the fumes, you know, I said the.
• 1:12:59
  Same thing. And then Sophie's like.
• 1:13:01
  Yeah, I don't, I don't know if they're going to be that those
• 1:13:03
  type of. Fumes, bro.
• 1:13:03
  It might be the type that's going to kill you, so I don't
• 1:13:07
  know. I'm going to come into the
• 1:13:08
  studio. Tomorrow.
• 1:13:09
  We're going to have a show I just might have to stream from
• 1:13:15
  my apartment because it it might.
• 1:13:17
  Be a little too chaotic. Here.
• 1:13:18
  So that's the only update. Maybe honestly, maybe I'll maybe
• 1:13:23
  I'll be able to stream tomorrow. I'm just saying might be a
• 1:13:25
  little different tomorrow, but I am so expect a later show.
• 1:13:30
  Maybe. Maybe stream from the bar.
• 1:13:34
  Yeah, that'd be lit. That'd be lit.
• 1:13:37
  All right, anyways, I. Appreciate you guys.
• 1:13:40
  I love you guys. I'll see you tomorrow same thing
• 1:13:43
  we're going to give you the biggest highlights coming from
• 1:13:45
  the Bitcoin conference, so you guys don't have to watch the
• 1:13:47
  whole 9 hours if you don't want to and if there's any other
• 1:13:52
  breaking news, I'm I'm I'm not just going to cover stuff from
• 1:13:56
  the conference if there's. Some other big.
• 1:13:58
  News. But it seems like all the big
• 1:14:00
  news is coming out of the conference.
• 1:14:01
  So we'll be getting all the sound bites, we'll be getting
• 1:14:04
  the news stories, but it might not be in the studio tomorrow.
• 1:14:08
  That's all. I'm saying, all right, on that
• 1:14:10
  note, guys, I appreciate you guys.
• 1:14:12
  I love you. Thank you for all the support.
• 1:14:16
  Honestly, it means the world to us means the world.
• 1:14:19
  To me. And you already know the deal.
• 1:14:22
  Make sure you. Get a workout in you, eat some
• 1:14:25
  good food, get some sun on your eyes in The Morning, Call your
• 1:14:30
  loved ones, cut some grass. But most importantly, make sure
• 1:14:36
  you are buying some Bitcoin, because if you're leaving SAT on
• 1:14:40
  the table right now, Wall Street's picking.
• 1:14:44
  Them up if you don't like what you're seeing with the.
• 1:14:48
  Institutionalization of Bitcoin. Then you need to be stacking SAT
• 1:14:53
  and taking it into self custody. On that note, Boys stream at
• 1:14:59
  the. Barbershop.
• 1:15:01
  Hey, hey, hey, my. Apartment isn't that.
• 1:15:04
  Messy right now, OK. All right, later, guys.
• 1:15:11
  I'll see you tomorrow. Have a good rest of your day.
• 1:15:15
  It's been SP live. I should stream at our normal.
• 1:15:18
  Time tomorrow at 12:40. And.
• 1:15:20
  Actually, I do want to say one last thing before I shut up.
• 1:15:22
  I know you guys yell at me about putting the show up at 12:16
• 1:15:26
  every morning, but I don't just put up the stream.
• 1:15:30
  And then I I sit around. For 30 minutes waiting.
• 1:15:32
  I'm literally working up until I go live making sure I got
• 1:15:37
  everything for you guys, got the research, got my, you know, my
• 1:15:41
  rants percolating in my head, so I should be live.
• 1:15:47
  Tomorrow at 12:40, but if not. I'm just, you know.
• 1:15:52
  I'm working. Up to the buzzer beater.
• 1:15:54
  All right, guys, peace out. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:15:58
  you by bitcoinwell.com. A Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:16:02
  mission to enable financial independence.