Latest / The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Inversion Now
The two-year Treasury yield is 83 basis points higher than the ten-year. Historically, that kind of inversion has been a recession warning. So why is the Federal Reserve signaling it's not concerned? In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into the specific mechanics of this inverted curve, looking at how post-pandemic term premiums, global demand for short-dated paper, and the Fed's own balance-sheet runoff have distorted the signal. They reference the current shape of the curve as of June 2026, the Fed funds rate at 3.62 percent, and the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million…
The skinny
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