Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD & SILVER (& Why AI is the Trigger) + Stock Market News 12 August 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD & SILVER (& Why AI is the Trigger) + Stock Market News 12 August 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

0:00
SPEAKER_00: The thing that might be about to send gold and silver to levels almost nobody thinks are possible isn't inflation.
0:06
SPEAKER_00: It's not the Fed.
0:07
SPEAKER_00: It's not another war in the Middle East.
0:10
SPEAKER_00: It's NVIDIA.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: And I know how that sounds.
0:13
SPEAKER_00: The hottest stock on Earth, the poster child of the future.
0:16
SPEAKER_00: And here is me telling you it's the fuse under the oldest, most boring, some people might say, money on the planet.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: So stay with me because I wasn't literally gonna make this video.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: We were literally planning on just sitting on the beach for the rest of the week.
0:30
SPEAKER_00: But I saw one number and I genuinely couldn't believe it.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: And I checked, and I checked again.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: And nobody's talking about this.
0:37
SPEAKER_00: No one's writing about this.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: So I'd winced to do some serious research here.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: And here is the unthinkable part.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Gold and silver are sitting there right now, pretty much ignored and hated, cheaper than they've been at about 50 years in real terms.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: And the exact thing the entire world is crowding into AI is quietly building the pressure that sends them the other way.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: Not despite the AI mania, but because of it.
1:03
SPEAKER_00: And look, I don't hate stocks.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm not one of those perma bears who lives in a banker eating tin beans or sardines or something.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: In fact, I bought a big position in one stock yesterday.
1:15
SPEAKER_00: And I'll show you exactly what that is later as a little bonus, especially for you stock investors who are not quite sure about the whole gold thing yet.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: But first, the main event.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: If you own an index fund or any big tech name at all, you are already standing on one side of this trade, whether you like it or not.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: You didn't even choose where you're sitting right now.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: So the question that matters for the next 20 minutes, we'll try to speak quickly, are are you on the right side of this thing when it tips?
1:42
SPEAKER_00: Or are you going to be watching from the sidelines six months from now, wishing you'd just looked and just watched the end of this video to see what little Winston here has got to say.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: So here is what happened in about a week.
1:54
SPEAKER_00: And I want you to watch these carefully one by one and how they stack on top of each other, because any single one of them, you probably scroll past.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: So let me show you.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: Item number one, NVIDIA, arranged half a trillion dollar of other people's money so that NVIDIA's own customers can go and buy NVIDIA's own chips with money NVIDIA helped raise round in a circle.
2:23
SPEAKER_00: And the stock, of course, went up on the news, which is just, you know, normal.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: Item number two, and this is the number that stopped me uh kind of cold this morning on the beach.
2:33
SPEAKER_00: At the very same time, the cost of insuring NVIDIA's debt against default bankruptcy doubled.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: Doubled.
2:42
SPEAKER_00: So the stocks at all-time highs, everyone's popping champagne corks, and somewhere in a quiet room full of very dull, very serious bond traders, someone's saying we should all buy some fire insurance for NVIDIA.
2:55
SPEAKER_00: That's why it gets more expensive.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Then you have two more.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: Item number three the biggest tech companies on the planet, the ones that are sitting in your pension funds and in your index funds, they've been held up for a decade plus by buybacks, which means the company shreds shares every year.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: They buy them back.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: So they're less and less shares, and therefore the price goes up.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: It's a really nice way to make sure if you're getting paid in stock options that your stock options are going to be worth a lot, right?
3:24
SPEAKER_00: That's the whole reason for buybacks.
3:26
SPEAKER_00: And now you know.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: Now they've flipped from buying 190 billion a year off their own stocks to pump their own remuneration to now selling 147 billion this year.
3:39
SPEAKER_00: So the biggest buyer in the stock market has just become a seller.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: No one's talking about this.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: It's like a footnote somewhere, right?
3:46
SPEAKER_00: And then item number four, this of course has nothing to do with anything, America's strategic petroleum reserve.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's a sort of, you know, break glass and emergency tank type thing.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: It just fell to its lowest level since 1983.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Not 2023, 1983.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: I was three years old at the time.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: So I'll not tell you what I was doing in 1983.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: Probably wasn't, you know, very useful.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: But we had four things here happening in the same week.
4:14
SPEAKER_00: Reported as four dull little stories by mainstream media, and nobody really looked and put them together on the same screen.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: But they're not four stories, they're actually one.
4:25
SPEAKER_00: And if you think of all of that landing at the same time in just seven days as just a lovely coincidence, well, that's really up to you.
4:32
SPEAKER_00: I admire your optimism.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: And of course, I'm not pointing fingers at NVIDIA or, you know, BlackRock or Wall Street for uh doing that.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: They're all very honorable institutions.
4:42
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and we're going to talk about them in a moment.
4:44
SPEAKER_00: But those guys that want to make very clear, Wall Street has the public's heart at uh I can't wish to say this.
4:50
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, um, so let me connect the dots for you.
4:54
SPEAKER_00: But before I do one chart, because it frames everything else that we're about to go through into some depth.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: This on the screen here is the US stock market valuations going back more than a hundred years.
5:06
SPEAKER_00: It's not one metric, it is eight valuation metrics mashed together, so we didn't cherry pick.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: We've got price to earnings, price to book, price to sales, market cap to GDP, the whole lot.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: And look where we are met no.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: We're higher than 2000, higher than the.com bubble.
5:25
SPEAKER_00: We're higher than the 1929 peak, the very, very top, the most expensive stock market recorded in American history.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: And here's why that's a problem, and here's why that's your problem, not some abstract chart nerd problem.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: If you own an index fund, you own a 401k, any of the big tech names, you own this.
5:45
SPEAKER_00: You are all in on the most expensive market that has ever existed, and a huge chunk of it is now just AI, funded by AI.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: So literally a handful of AI names are the index.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: So this isn't a niche gold bug chat, sort of for you know, oddbots here.
6:06
SPEAKER_00: This is a conversation about whether the thing holding up your retirement is as solid as you know the nice people on CNBC keep telling you.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: Gold, silver, the miners, they sit on the other side of this.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: The side almost nobody's on.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: And that is historically exactly where the money gets made, or, well, lost, if you get it wrong, which is what the whole back half of this video is about.
6:30
SPEAKER_00: Now, I'm about to overwhelm you slightly with data, and I apologize for that.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: Even my T start to sound like in the US stock market, right?
6:38
SPEAKER_00: So I've put every number, every source, the thing I just bought, the whole shebang into one free report.
6:45
SPEAKER_00: It's no fluff, no jagging, just you can just stand it.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: It's just free.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: It's yours because you deserve to understand this.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: It's important you understand this.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: So you can download that phelixfriends.org slash gold silver.
6:55
SPEAKER_00: It's down below in the description, and you can just click on it.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: And if you're wondering who the heck I am, uh, and you're wondering who that was, that was, of course, Winston.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: Uh, I used to be an investment banker, he's the smart one.
7:05
SPEAKER_00: And um, the only thing I really want you to know about is that we we never take any sponsorship.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: I never pay to talk about a stock or a theme or any of it.
7:13
SPEAKER_00: If I own it, I'll tell you.
7:15
SPEAKER_00: Uh, so you know that I'm telling you this because it's my opinion, not because someone's paying me.
7:21
SPEAKER_00: Okay, so here's the shape of the next 20 minutes.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: Three things.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: One, the opportunity nobody's looking at, why the gold miners are the cheapest they've been in half a century, and actually where the risk sits there.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: And two, the trigger, the AI bubble.
7:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna show you with their own charts, not mine, why this whole boom is running on borrowed money and financial engineering, and why the one thing that's propped up the market for about a decade just quietly broke.
7:45
SPEAKER_00: And then thess is what I'm about to actually do, including the stock I just bought yesterday and the why.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: Because yes, we can, of course, all become gold and silver bunks, but there is also, in my humble opinion, a place to actually buy a particular type of stock right now, and I'll explain that to you very, very quickly.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: Now, before we go into this deeply, this is the single most important thing ourselves to say today.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: If you take nothing else, take this.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: Ask them, answer this.
8:13
SPEAKER_00: Have you ever been right and still lost money?
8:16
SPEAKER_00: Think about it for a second.
8:17
SPEAKER_00: You bought something, it went up 20%, 30%, doubled, and you sat there and you felt clever.
8:23
SPEAKER_00: And then you watched it hand every penny back.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: You are right.
8:28
SPEAKER_00: Your thesis was right, and you still lost.
8:30
SPEAKER_00: What's happened to you?
8:32
SPEAKER_00: Say happened right happened to me in the comments down below.
8:35
SPEAKER_00: And I guarantee at least half of you have done this, probably 70 or 80% have done this.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: I've done this.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: I don't do it anymore, but I used to.
8:42
SPEAKER_00: And the brutal bit is this everything I show you today, you could get completely right.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: Right about the bubble, right about gold, right about the miners, and you could still lose money.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: Because being right about what to buy is less than half the battle.
8:57
SPEAKER_00: The other half, the half nobody teaches you because it's not as exciting, is knowing when to get out, when to take the profit, when to cut the loss before it becomes a disaster, and when to exit the bubble-burning building.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: And Wall Street, guess what, has a rule book for this.
9:13
SPEAKER_00: They've had the rule book for 50 years.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: It is a simple, repeatable, three-step system for when to sell.
9:19
SPEAKER_00: They have never ever handed it to regular people like you and me because what a customer in this one to sell is a customer that can't uh help.
9:27
SPEAKER_00: That was what I was looking for, right?
9:29
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's good.
9:30
SPEAKER_00: Uh okay, so I'm gonna hand it to you, the full rule book, not in this video because it would be an hour long.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but I'm gonna run for you on Saturday a free live session, me live, Winston Life, on when to take profits, when to cut losses, and how not to give it all back, how to protect yourself against this AI bubble popping.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: At some point it'll pop, I guarantee you, and a lot of people will be very unhappy about it, and some people will be very happy about it.
9:55
SPEAKER_00: So decide which site you want to be on and go to when to sell.org, grab yourself a free seat.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we'll probably have about 5,000 people there live who be teaching, which is going to be a lot of fun.
10:06
SPEAKER_00: Okay, now let's get into the opportunity.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: What do you have for gold mining.
10:10
SPEAKER_00: So gold mining stocks are the cheapest they've been in 50 years, a half a century.
10:16
SPEAKER_00: And I know cheap is what every dodgy salesman says right before they sell you something.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: In fact, my first mentor said, Felix, never ever used the word cheap, and I'm very sorry uh that I that I did.
10:27
SPEAKER_00: But as a group, these companies are throwing off around about 10% free cash flow.
10:35
SPEAKER_00: Now, what does free cash flow mean?
10:36
SPEAKER_00: It's just the money left over after everything.
10:38
SPEAKER_00: It's like it's like the thing that actually matters, it's a better number than profits, because you can't fudge this with clever accounting like Nvidia.
10:46
SPEAKER_00: Uh so 10%.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: So they're trading at roughly a valuation.
10:50
SPEAKER_00: So this on the left here is free cash flow for you, chart nerds.
10:55
SPEAKER_00: And the bottom is basically price over assets.
10:59
SPEAKER_00: What are their assets?
11:00
SPEAKER_00: Well, their assets are gold, right?
11:02
SPEAKER_00: Gold, that's what they own.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: Now, on average, they're trading below the value of the gold on the ground.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: So the market is literally pricing these businesses at less than the metal they literally are sitting on.
11:16
SPEAKER_00: And even after the gold pullback, mining is still one of the most profitable industries in the entire SP right now.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: Not the most exciting, but the most profitable.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: So naturally, of course, nobody cares because it's gold and silver, and gold and silver miners only for crazy people because it's so risky, right?
11:32
SPEAKER_00: Of course, it's risky, everything is risky.
11:34
SPEAKER_00: But we've got the cheapest market, the most profitable sector, one-off, and it's a ghost town.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: No one's talking about these gold stocks.
11:43
SPEAKER_00: And if you are a if you're a charting chap, we have a little breakout here.
11:48
SPEAKER_00: Gap up, beautiful, gap up, beautiful.
11:51
SPEAKER_00: Just one line holding us back between, you know, disaster and nirvana, but just a purple line there again.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: I'll explain all that to you on Saturday.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: But the thing is in the market right now, every last scrap of attention and greed got hoovered up by one big thing, AI.
12:09
SPEAKER_00: And I've got to put my yellow glasses on, it makes me look smarter.
12:12
SPEAKER_00: So, why on earth would you own boring gold miners that could make you 10% when you could own, you know, a chip stock at a bazillion times profits that's going to, you know, change the world and uh cure baldness and then fold your laundry.
12:27
SPEAKER_00: It's actually going to do both of those things.
12:29
SPEAKER_00: And if you are terrified of gold miners, good.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: Um, you should be scared of some risk there.
12:36
SPEAKER_00: But there is an index fund, there's called GDX.
12:39
SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying that's there for low risk because it's a very volatile sector.
12:42
SPEAKER_00: It depends on the gold price.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: But it's one way of just not having to go through a million of these index, these, these, these, these gold mining stocks and wondering whether they're going to go out of business, right?
12:52
SPEAKER_00: So GDX, write that down, do some research.
12:54
SPEAKER_00: This isn't financial advisor.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm not a financial advisor.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: You have to come to your conclusions, right?
12:58
SPEAKER_00: Because you're smart, and this is what this is about, getting better skills.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: Because the way I look at it, when everybody is crowded into one trade, well, we kind of know how that ends.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: We've seen it.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: So let me take you over to see the other side of the boat.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: Imagine boat lopsided, everyone's on one side looking over, going, oh my god, it's AI down there, it's amazing, it's beautiful, it's shiny.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: Look how pretty she is.
13:23
SPEAKER_00: Right?
13:24
SPEAKER_00: That's the AI side.
13:25
SPEAKER_00: So we have to understand the trigger.
13:28
SPEAKER_00: So our first crack.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to see any jokes on cracks in the comments.
13:33
SPEAKER_00: Uh absolutely not.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: You'll be banned from this channel forever.
13:37
SPEAKER_00: There is a thing called a credit default swap.
13:40
SPEAKER_00: Um, and I know your eyes are glazing over me, but and all that stuff, but it's it's basically just insurance.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
13:46
SPEAKER_00: It's what you pay to insure yourself against a company not paying its debt.
13:52
SPEAKER_00: Now, rock solid companies have very cheap insurance costs because no one's worried, right?
13:57
SPEAKER_00: The company gets shaky, that insurance gets expensive very fast because suddenly people want the protection.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: So the cost of insuring NVIDIA's debt has, well, doubled since Late May.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: Doubled.
14:13
SPEAKER_00: Now, sit with how odd that is.
14:15
SPEAKER_00: Nvidia is supposedly the greatest business in the history of capitalism or cannibalism or something, and it's generating an extra half a trillion dollar of demand.
14:25
SPEAKER_00: And yet the bond desks, the people who insure the debt for a living, the ones who couldn't care less about your uh YouTube hype or Jensen's leather jacket, those people are paying twice as much to insure against NVIDIA going out of business.
14:43
SPEAKER_00: And that's a tell.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: When the stock crowd is throwing a party and the dull bond traders are quietly buying fire insurance, listen to the ones with the fire insurance, will be my advice.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: Because, in my opinion, the bond market tells you what Wall Street actually believes, not what it says.
15:03
SPEAKER_00: And the bond market just muttered.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: Leverage in this AI thing is climbing and we don't really love it.
15:10
SPEAKER_00: And leverage, hold on to that word because I'm now going to show you how they are borrowing.
15:16
SPEAKER_00: It is one of the most beautiful bits of financial engineering I have ever seen in my life.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: I mean, beautiful in a way, a sort of really well-done bank robbery is beautiful.
15:28
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's for beautiful.
15:30
SPEAKER_00: So here is how$500 billion actually works.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: And what has NVIDIA just done?
15:37
SPEAKER_00: The NVIDIA has signed agreements with the six biggest names in private money.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: And you probably haven't heard of them, or some of them because you have a life.
15:49
SPEAKER_00: Apollo is one you might have heard of Blackstone.
15:53
SPEAKER_00: I know you can't read my writing, but it makes me feel like I'm doing something useful.
15:57
SPEAKER_00: Uh BlackRock, you've probably heard of.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: Uh, they're the ones with all the orphanages and all the kittens.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we've got Goldman and Sachs, uh, and we have KKR, generally described as the cockroaches of the private equity industry.
16:13
SPEAKER_00: Sorry, I got that wrong.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: The um honorable, abstanding people in the private equity industry.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: So if you want to raise$500 billion, you gotta go to all of the top guys.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: And what is it for?
16:29
SPEAKER_00: Well, NVIDIA's own customers think you got a pen color, you could actually see.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: So walk the loop with me because it is a perfect circle, as perfect as you ever seen on Wall Street.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: Nvidia ships GPUs.
16:44
SPEAKER_00: Now, the companies that buy them need money to pay for them.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: So these six giant asset managers, they lend them$500 billion to the customers.
16:57
SPEAKER_00: Now, where do these asset managers that I mistakenly described as cockroaches, for which I apologize profusely, those upstanding members of Wall Street, where do they get the money from?
17:09
SPEAKER_00: Well, of course, from your pension and your life insurance, because yeah, that's already what it's for.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: The pension funds basically end up holding the back because they are the ones that are actually lending the money.
17:23
SPEAKER_00: So the customers get the chips from NVIDIA.
17:27
SPEAKER_00: NVIDIA gets the revenue or the money, and everyone's like, oh my god, Nvidia's revenue is out by 500 billion, it's amazing.
17:35
SPEAKER_00: Woo-hoo, right?
17:36
SPEAKER_00: And um, let me do it again.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: Now, NVIDIA's pitch, for why this is all perfectly sensible, and I am some sort of complete lunatic who sees uh scary things under every rock.
17:47
SPEAKER_00: They say a GPU is a long-lived asset, like real estate, like a toll road.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: Yes, a toll road.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: Now there's a catch, and it's the whole thing.
17:58
SPEAKER_00: A toll road still earns money in 30 years, right?
18:02
SPEAKER_00: You've been in the US, they put these toll booths up so that there's a massive traffic jam, complete idiocy if you ask me.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: Um, they can do that digitally, by the way.
18:11
SPEAKER_00: You don't have to put people sitting in there going an overquarter please.
18:13
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, they do that.
18:14
SPEAKER_00: Um, cars will still drive on a road in 30 years.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: Now, an AI chip is close to worthless in five years.
18:21
SPEAKER_00: Because Nvidia's own next chips make the last one look like a paperweight every other year.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: And they do that on purpose.
18:29
SPEAKER_00: That's literally the business model.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: So they want pension funds to lend half a trillion against hardware that ages like, you know, strawberries left on a radiator, andor just strawberries left in front of Winston's nose, you've got about 15 seconds.
18:45
SPEAKER_00: And the six firms who arranged the whole thing, they take their fees up front, you see.
18:51
SPEAKER_00: Win-lose no matter what.
18:53
SPEAKER_00: They've been paid, they couldn't care less, they have none of their risk.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: Who holds the risk?
18:57
SPEAKER_00: Your retirement fund, your life insurance.
19:00
SPEAKER_00: Congratulations.
19:01
SPEAKER_00: Now, have we seen this film before?
19:03
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, late 90s.
19:05
SPEAKER_00: There were two companies, you might remember them.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: Put it in the chat if you do, Lucent and Nautil.
19:11
SPEAKER_00: They did this exact same thing.
19:13
SPEAKER_00: They lent their own customers the money to buy their own gear.
19:16
SPEAKER_00: Sales looked spectaculare, as the Italians say.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: Everybody was a genius on paper, and both of them ended in the biggest corporate bankruptcies of their day.
19:24
SPEAKER_00: So the supplier lends the money to keep its own sales looking gorgeous.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: The risk piles up on the customer side, or in this case on the insurance side, and your pension fund, when it unwinds, well, the guy selling the stuff is actually just fine.
19:40
SPEAKER_00: But whoever is holding the paper, the pension funds, the insurers, you.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm not saying Nvidia is loosened, I would never, Jensen and the six upstanding gentlemen of, you know, Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookefield, that was the other one I forgot.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: Uh Goldman and KKR, they obviously have nothing but the general good of the public at heart, you know, uh sort of the earth, you know, that sort of thing.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we wouldn't be able to do anything without them.
20:06
SPEAKER_00: We're very, very grateful.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: Yes, thank you, especially to their legal departments.
20:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm just observing innocently uh that we've now watched this precise movie twice.
20:16
SPEAKER_00: And the chap holding the popcorn in the end is never the one who sold the tickets.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: That's a weird analogy, isn't it?
20:23
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, let's move on to part number four, because I promised you this would be a short video, and it's I'm not sure it is.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: Uh there's quite a lot to cover here, but it's just important.
20:32
SPEAKER_00: I think we'd be good to run through it.
20:34
SPEAKER_00: So here's the trigger.
20:36
SPEAKER_00: The debt circular eye.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: Now, let me show you why when this bubble bursts, things are gonna get very, very dicey.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the natural emergency tank, the buffer you drain when something's gone genuinely horribly wrong, like if your poll rating as a president aren't very good and need to lower the price at the pump.
21:01
SPEAKER_00: They would never do that, would they?
21:02
SPEAKER_00: No, Biden never did that.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: Of course, at least he doesn't remember it.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: Uh, poor chat.
21:07
SPEAKER_00: Uh it just fell to its lowest level since 1983, when Biden was still, you know, visiting nightclubs.
21:16
SPEAKER_00: At the peak, up here, 2009, it held about 700 million barrels.
21:25
SPEAKER_00: Today, 300.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Now, why are you telling me about gold?
21:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, sorry, oil, isn't this about gold and silver?
21:31
SPEAKER_00: Because this is what a system with no shock absorbers looks like, right?
21:34
SPEAKER_00: You drain your emergency reserves in the good times, and you've got baggage all to lean on when the bad times show up, and the bad times always, always show up when you least expect them.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: So, any stress, a supply shock, an energy spike, an inflation scale lands in the economy that's running on, you know, fumes to stick with the uh the sort of oil theme here.
21:56
SPEAKER_00: So, why does it matter to metals?
21:59
SPEAKER_00: Well, When you get a big financial accident, say somebody at those upstanding firms made a genuine error and uh underestimated the risk of circular financing, just as an example, hypothetical, of course, right?
22:13
SPEAKER_00: Um, well, what do governments do?
22:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, they print money.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: That's what they always do.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: They bail us out.
22:21
SPEAKER_00: And not it's not really a tinfoil hat theory, it's just what they've done the last 20 years, right?
22:26
SPEAKER_00: So what happens to the value of the dollar in your pocket when they print trillions more money to plug the hole?
22:32
SPEAKER_00: Well, that goes down, doesn't it?
22:34
SPEAKER_00: And what goes up and the dollar gets debased and there is no cushion left in the system, and inflation is roaring, gold and silver typically.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: Real physical stuff that you know you can't just sort of make up.
22:47
SPEAKER_00: Right?
22:47
SPEAKER_00: You can't print dollar.
22:49
SPEAKER_00: Uh you can compute the dollar, but you can't print gold.
22:52
SPEAKER_00: And if you put this all together, this chart here is probably the most important one of the year.
22:58
SPEAKER_00: Again, no one's talking about it.
23:00
SPEAKER_00: So obviously we're going to.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: For 10 years straight, there's been one relentless, reliable buyer holding the stock market up.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: It wasn't you, it wasn't me, it wasn't even Winston, it wasn't pension funds, it wasn't the big guys on Wall Street.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: No.
23:14
SPEAKER_00: It was the tech companies buying back their own shares.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, or the hyperscalers, or the AI companies.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: Every year, like clockwork, they hoovered up tens, hundreds of billions of their own stock.
23:29
SPEAKER_00: And you can see we went from like 6 billion in 2017 to 190 billion in 2024, 140 billion last year.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: And it was a giant, beautiful, price insensitive buyer who was just showing up every day and they were just buying stocks and pushing up the prices because, well, management gets paid in share options, and they get a lot more valuable when you do this.
23:52
SPEAKER_00: Now, look at 2026.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: It's not a slowdown.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: It is a complete reversal.
23:58
SPEAKER_00: They are selling$147 billion of their own stocks.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: First time in a decade.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: The biggest buyer of stocks on Earth, you can see them from space.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: That's how big they are, I'm told.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: They're now a net seller.
24:12
SPEAKER_00: What does that mean?
24:13
SPEAKER_00: They're diluting their share office.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: They're printing shares just like the Fed prints money.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: And they're doing that to pay for AI spending.
24:21
SPEAKER_00: So the biggest source of buying that's held this market up for 10 years has changed its identity.
24:27
SPEAKER_00: It now identifies as a stock seller.
24:29
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
24:30
SPEAKER_00: There is a special bathroom for that, I'm told.
24:32
SPEAKER_00: So let me put the whole machine on one screen here for you.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: If I can.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure I can, it's quite a lot.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: What have we got?
24:42
SPEAKER_00: The AI boom is financed with debt.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: The bond market is telling you that it's dodgy.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: The debt then runs through a circular loop that ends up in your pension fund.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: Sort of nautil-shaped loop, if you remember that.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: There is also no cushion left.
24:57
SPEAKER_00: The oil reserves have been drained.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: And the buyer that's been holding up the stock market for last decade, they've just identified as a seller.
25:07
SPEAKER_00: And when this market fails, and it will at some point, what is the government going to do?
25:12
SPEAKER_00: They will print, because they've done that every time in the last 20 years.
25:16
SPEAKER_00: And when they print, who do you think wins?
25:19
SPEAKER_00: So what am I actually doing about all this with my good old money, Dean Niro?
25:24
SPEAKER_00: Well, two things.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: And I'll be very specific because I'm sick of people waving their arms and never telling you what they actually do.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: One, I'm looking very, very seriously at the miners, because I don't care that they're cheapest, honestly.
25:36
SPEAKER_00: Couldn't give a give a hoot that something is cheap because that kind of got kicked out of me by my mentors.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: But what I'm seeing here is a pattern that I like the look of.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: We're seeing a breakout.
25:49
SPEAKER_00: Uh we've gone above the key moving average lines here.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: We're just hanging around that one, and I'm a bit risk averse.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: So I'm waiting to take out that one.
25:56
SPEAKER_00: So a dollar higher or something like that on GDX, and I'll be there.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: Now I might of course be buying individual stocks, but a good place to start could be GDX.
26:04
SPEAKER_00: And specifically not telling you to do that.
26:06
SPEAKER_00: You have to come to your own conclusions.
26:08
SPEAKER_00: Now, if you don't know how to find, if you don't know how to find a gold stock, uh go into the wind snap and put a link down below.
26:15
SPEAKER_00: I'll give you a free month's access, completely free for 30 days.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Go on stocks and just click on gold and silver mining, and you will now see 86 gold and silver miners.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: We score them by quality.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, you can filter them by country and moat and everything else.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: If you want, say, Canadian ones only, you can also do that.
26:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, some of you obviously have special uh uh things there.
26:40
SPEAKER_00: Hang on, what happened here?
26:42
SPEAKER_00: Got to click gold and silver again.
26:43
SPEAKER_00: I'll fix that as well.
26:45
SPEAKER_00: Um, so that's one way of looking at what those stocks are.
26:49
SPEAKER_00: And the second thing I'm doing is got nothing to do with gold at all.
26:54
SPEAKER_00: And it's what I bought quite a lot of yesterday.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: It's the second time I bought it in about a week.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: And again, I'm not telling you to buy it, I'm not telling you to remortgage the house, I'm telling you where I'm seeing an asymmetric upside.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: And it has everything to do with this chart here from good old Financial Times.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: Um, and what is it showing you?
27:13
SPEAKER_00: It is showing that value stocks have had the worst decade, the longest period of underperforming growth stocks we have basically ever seen.
27:29
SPEAKER_00: So the red bit here, can I get a pen?
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Kingdom for a pen.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no, no pen allowed.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: But this red bit here is the underperformance since about 2010.
27:42
SPEAKER_00: Whereas usually growth value stocks do quite well.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: Now, what usually happens is this you get these underperformance periods.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: Gosh, these arrows sucked, don't they?
27:56
SPEAKER_00: This one here, that was the 2000 bubble.
27:59
SPEAKER_00: People are like, how many arrows did you draw, you lunatic?
28:03
SPEAKER_00: Um, when there is a tech bubble, people buy growth stocks.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: Right.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: When there is the end of the bubble, people will go back into quality stocks.
28:14
SPEAKER_00: So I am buying some quality stocks.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: Now, the one I'm buying, in the way I find this, by the way, I go into Winston App Funds, and I've just added a quality filter.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: So you click on quality, and I look at the US stocks usually.
28:28
SPEAKER_00: The one I bought is this one here, IQLT.
28:31
SPEAKER_00: Tells you everything.
28:32
SPEAKER_00: It's basically an international fund.
28:36
SPEAKER_00: It owns very, very, very little American stocks.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: And again, that's intentional.
28:40
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the the the Brits, the Japanese, the Swisses, the Canadians, uh, you know, the Dutch, and so on, it's their stocks.
28:48
SPEAKER_00: So these are high-quality companies that I want to own because I think A, they've been so unloved, and B, they're actually really good companies.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: And people haven't been looking at companies, we'll have to be looking at the words A and I.
29:02
SPEAKER_00: Now, if you say in Europe, you can't buy the stock.
29:05
SPEAKER_00: Well, click on Europe, and now you're gonna find equivalents in Europe.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: If you are in uh formerly great, now just Britain, Britain, uh, you could click on that too, and you can do this for the Aussies and so on.
29:15
SPEAKER_00: You'll get your own sticker.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: So you can you can do that, you can compare them.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: In fact, what you can also do is you can say, hey, why don't I just compare a bunch of these?
29:24
SPEAKER_00: A bunch of these look good, and click compare, and it'll now give you the breakdown of in between them and tell you the expense ratio and everything else and what you're owning and what countries these are in and everything else.
29:36
SPEAKER_00: So please do your own research.
29:38
SPEAKER_00: They do own different things.
29:39
SPEAKER_00: And what I want to stay away from is this sort of stuff, Nvidia Microsoft, because I already own plenty of that through everything else.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: So to be very clear, I'm not telling you to buy it.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: I'm saying think carefully about how to position yourself in this market.
29:54
SPEAKER_00: Because the bubble will burst.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: It's what's gonna happen.
29:58
SPEAKER_00: Junk's gonna go to zero, crap stocks are gonna really, really fall, the good businesses will survive, and yes, AI is real and it will continue, but the stock, you know, the internet was also real, railways were also real and so on.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: So I am preparing for that, but I'm still pretty much fully invested in stocks and gold and silver and a bunch of other things.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: Um, so I'm not saying the market's gonna collapse tomorrow.
30:24
SPEAKER_00: I'm not one of those perma bear doom and gloomers.
30:26
SPEAKER_00: The money printing and the lending and so on is gonna keep this party going for a while.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: But at some point the party will stop.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: And I think that, you know, your Nestles and your Roshs and your um lovely pharma companies like Novartis and so on will uh conjure up, sorry, uh solve and cure another pandemic and the glorious way they have, and then generate another 50 billionaires.
30:48
SPEAKER_00: Uh and and I want to own those great businesses that are run by those lovely people.
30:53
SPEAKER_00: Um, and that's then outside of the American AI casino, because that's where the casino is right now, right?
30:59
SPEAKER_00: But even if you are buying all the right things and you're seeing all the risk, I can tell you most of you will still lose money.
31:05
SPEAKER_00: And it's the most frustrating part in the world is that we've been taught and trained, and our minds operate like gamblers, just that we naturally are created.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: We want the win, we want the pick, we want the great stock, right?
31:20
SPEAKER_00: But my hope is that you are smarter than that.
31:24
SPEAKER_00: You're not gonna run out and buy the miners, or you're gonna run out and buy this quality index fund I just bought, because you don't quite know how much you should buy, and you're not quite sure where you should sell it.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: You're not quite sure when you should sell your tech stocks or if you should.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: But you are a bit worried about the market and you want to do something.
31:42
SPEAKER_00: Well, activity doesn't get rewarded.
31:44
SPEAKER_00: Simple as that.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: What gets rewarded is getting better at this.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: This bubble could run higher and higher and higher than anybody thinks possible, which is why we want a plan for getting out just as much as a plan for staying in.
31:59
SPEAKER_00: So please promise yourself that you will not hand your gains back to the buggers on Wall Street this time around, because too many retail investors have done this again and again and again.
32:11
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of how the system works.
32:13
SPEAKER_00: So learn how to get out and when to get out.
32:18
SPEAKER_00: That's the skill that is better than the skill of knowing what to buy, quite frankly.
32:23
SPEAKER_00: So I will teach you that.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: When2.org is the website.
32:27
SPEAKER_00: It is completely free.
32:28
SPEAKER_00: It will be completely live.
32:30
SPEAKER_00: So if this connected a few dots for you, if you'll genuinely never look at this AI boom quite the same way, share this video with people.
32:40
SPEAKER_00: Encourage them to learn the skills that Wall Street has known for 50 years.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: Go to when2.org, share that link on your social media.
32:48
SPEAKER_00: Let's make this the biggest life training where we have the biggest impact on the largest number of people possible so that more and more people will be safe when the party ends and the music stops, because it will.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: It's Hamp.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: I thank you for watching, and I wish you all the best.