Latest / Closing Market Report / 2025 ADAO | Corn Panel

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2025 ADAO | Corn Panel · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: Sue Martin. Sue's on our our corn panel. She is from Ag and Investment Services. Flew in today from Clarion, Iowa. Thank you so much for flying in.
• 0:11
  I appreciate that. Sue's gonna talk us about, talk to us about the market. We're also gonna hear from Mike Zuzlow. He drove in. He thought, you know, if I knew Sue was gonna fly in from Clarion, I would have just drove there.
• 0:25
  It'd been closer from Atchison, Kansas and ridden with her, but that's not what he did. He drove in. Thank you for bringing, a couple six packs for us. If you've not signed up, how can they do that? Can they is there a sign up sheet where?
• 0:40
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. There's a sign up sheet and some pens on our, lunch table back there, Todd.
• 0:44
  Todd Gleason: Oh. And so
• 0:45
  Mike Zuzolo: I want you to know it took a lot of fortitude not to drink those before I came today.
• 0:50
  Todd Gleason: What what what did you bring? What is this? This is Irish ale.
• 0:53
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. That's a special boulevard, brewery from Kansas City. They only do that once a year around Saint Patty's Day.
• 0:59
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Alright. Oh, good. And then, in the middle is Brian Stark. Brian, of course, is, with the Andersons, and he does Cash Grain on Wednesday morning now at 08:55AM.
• 1:13
  So thank you, Brian, for being here today. Like the soybean panel, I'll let each of you talk for five minutes, and then we'll go into questions and answers. Sue, would you like to start, please?
• 1:24
  Sue Martin: Well, it's kind of a a nasty day, us, in the markets, but, you know, I look at corn, and I went back and I looked at all the years from 1974 to current, including this year. And I looked at, a lead contract of corn coming off of a spike high, which in this case would have been 2022, and, looked for the first break low and rally and then the subsequent low and rally. And what I found was there were, 12 of them, which included this year. And in there, I was trying to measure what has been the most dynamic, corrective rallies off of a large break and on, a lead contract with corn. And it was interesting because 1980, the market rallied, I believe it was a dollar 63 off of a low.
• 2:30
  And then in, I think it was 2,008, from that high, we, rallied off of the low, subsequent low, a dollar 60, and this year, a dollar 44. And so it told me that the market is really pushing, the envelope of possibly being close to being done. And the market kinda gave a tip-off that it was probably gonna break. We didn't know why or how far. But the day we went to $5.00 4 before we got to $5.00 4, we went to what?
• 3:10
  $5.00 2 and a half or something like that. Broke back to $4.97 and a quarter. Market rally went to $5.00 4 and a half. Immediately broke back to $5.04 97 and a half. So the market was catching selling on that rally.
• 3:27
  What's interesting is is watching the, commitment of traders report and what they say the managed money and the large specs are doing. And the large specs have been liquidating some of their longs, but the managed money also, yes, liquidating some of their long position, but they are still, according to last Friday's report, heavily, and I mean heavily long. And for the type of break we've had in this market, I'm surprised they it'll be interesting to see this Friday's report because I would have to think they would have liquidated a boatload. And yet, if they haven't, don't you have to ask yourself why? Because it would make you wonder, are they so entrenched in their, forecast or their outlook for corn, being on the long side as they are, that possibly they're gonna use this break at some point and come back to the adding more positions in.
• 4:28
  It'll be interesting to watch. But I also take years of a five. And I do this every year, taking a similar, all years that are end in the same number because they tend to pattern. And since, 2025 actually, since twenty fifth or, 1915 and 1925, coming every year forward that ends in a five, there's a very strong pattern in those years. And the pattern is that you can have your highs made in January or February, and the next time it comes in June or July.
• 5:11
  And then out of all of those years, let's say out of ten, nine of them would break into the last, quarter of the year. And many of them would have their low in November or December in corn. And it what's interesting is there was one year that did not do that, and that was the year of 1995. And what happened that year, in 'ninety four, farmers held on to their crop way too long, and it was a huge crop. And then, in 'ninety five, they remembered how tough the prices had gotten, and they were early selling their old crop and getting rid of it.
• 5:56
  And then around the July 4, I was at a hog roast in our on a farm, in our area. And the elevator manager came up to me and he goes, Sue, would you believe I have bought all the corn for new crop that I'm gonna buy this fall. And I thought, thank you for telling me that, because what did that tell me? It told me we wouldn't have any hedge pressure in the fall, which meant prices were probably gonna be better. But then other things happened.
• 6:32
  The weather kicked in, and we had a weather issue that supported the market and started bringing it up. And then what else happened? Japan stepped in and started buying hook, line, and sinker. And then what else had occurred? Farmers, in doing their marketing, had done hedge tool arrives.
• 6:56
  And when they went to just keep rolling them, and, of course, with all the buying from the, from Japan and also, from the, short supply that tightened up crop, we've seen the market go inverted, which meant as it got out of a hedge to arrive, they're rolling down. And what happens? That price just comes up to align with the expiration of the one that went off. So each time they rolled, they were losing money. So the market smelled blood.
• 7:31
  And, of course, the traders on the floor, when they get a a whiff of that heavy short position, they go after it. And they did. Now doesn't that sort of have some of the feel of this year in corn? Farmers held on to their crop till right into harvest. Didn't sell even some of it at at off the combine.
• 7:57
  Have sold 85, 80, 80 five percent of it. Then you have, what's going on in the marketplace. You had a beautiful rally, and then here we have all of this political landscape that's got everything topsy-turvy and whip sewing. And if this keeps up and you hear all this kind of news, what do you think you guys are gonna do by July 4? You're gonna have a lot of crop sold.
• 8:26
  Now let's look at the weather. The weather forecast for this year, we're looking at the eighty nine year cycle, which would compare to 1936. We're looking at a seventy two year cycle, which compares to 1953. In Iowa, nineteen fifty three was worse than 1936. We are also looking at a year where our weather patterns are so volatile.
• 8:55
  They're very whippy. We go extremely cold, and then we come back above normal temps. It's one extreme to the other. And there's an old saying, March comes in like a lamb, goes out like a lion. Another saying, late Easter, late spring.
• 9:14
  The forecast that I'm seeing from various sources and we we carry five different weather services. And what I'm picking up is that we're looking at what we could have the March maybe be a little milder, but then we start to turn cold and wet. We've had four years of early planted crops. What's the odds of a fifth one? And I think April is gonna be a very cool, wet month.
• 9:48
  And I kinda have a funny feeling a chunk of May might be that way. And then I think we flip and we turn hot. So this is going to be an interesting year because two things that really move markets is politics and weather, and I think we have a basket full of all of that.
• 10:09
  Todd Gleason: Okay. So I have to admit, we're gonna let Mike go next. And, Mike, interestingly enough, not last Friday, but the previous Friday, I had already interviewed Gohlke for how many listened to Gohlke? Two week, week and a half ago? Yeah.
• 10:27
  I'd already interviewed Jerry, for the show. And I knew where Jerry was in the marketplace. I knew he was friendly, actually, bullish the market and had been for a while. And so I had so I knew I had Jerry in the can, and I had Eric Snodgrass in the can after him. And I know what you all you've all heard Eric talk, and you've heard about his weather forecast, dry conditions, potentially.
• 10:56
  He always caveats that, but dry conditions for the and and and the market had been bad, just been bad that week. And I didn't know where Mike would come in. And Mike, to your credit on that day, said, oh, this was a bad Bad day. On that day. On that day.
• 11:17
  On that day. I said this was a bad week. And so, Mike, you you picked that one on that day, you picked that one out. And not only was that a bad week, but this week was a bad week too. So I'm interested to hear what you have to say about the corn market going forward.
• 11:33
  Mike Zuzolo: I I have to say, I think the panels, before us was just probably the best I've heard in a long, long time. Well done to the soybean panelists.
• 11:41
  Todd Gleason: Thank you to the soybean panel. They did a great job. Yeah.
• 11:43
  Mike Zuzolo: And I I guess my mindset right now, the best thing I can bring to you this year from the research that I'm doing right now is after today and what Todd just said, we know that President Trump is serious about the tariffs. Maybe out in the farm country and the people that are here today, it's not a shock. But to the markets and to Wall Street, I think it is a shock. And if that's the case and he's serious, then take seriously that he will go to 60% if China and I'm going to say China is the key with President Trump's policies because he's pulling a playbook out of the mid-1980s with Ronald Reagan and the Soviet Union, both trade wise and militarily. His policy is to contain China.
• 12:34
  I'm gonna use a term that I learned in college in the late eighties that meant nothing after I graduated, because the world changed. The multilateral world came and we came into this world trading mindset and we had just come away from thirty years of containment of the Soviet Union. I think President Trump wants to contain China and he said it yesterday, you guys can go back and ladies can go back and listen to this, when he brought up the TSMC, investment of the microchips, someone asked him a question and he said, if China wants to keep lowering and depreciating their currency, I'll just keep throwing more tariffs at them. And so his policy, his trade policy, his economic policy, his foreign policy, they're all one and the same. And so when he said that yesterday, it gave me a good feeling about coming here today and saying, be ready for China to either buckle and work with us and we get our prices back relatively quickly or be ready to for China to get, very hostile.
• 13:47
  And if they do, I'm very nervous not about so much 2025, but as someone said earlier this morning, I can't remember who it was, maybe it was, the the ag economist that was here talking about 2026. I'm worried about '26, '20 '7, '20 '8 if we don't have this put to bed by president Trump's first one hundred days. That's the marker I'm putting down. I would recommend in your marketing plans to put down markers, expectations of what you think are gonna happen. And right now, I'm not nervous because the dollar's going down.
• 14:19
  And the the The US corn export price is down, I think, 15 or 16% from where it was just two weeks ago. We're almost getting close to that 25% tariff level. So we're we're economically balancing things out right now. But if we go a hundred days and we haven't settled things with China and the dollar comes back as a safe haven, I'm speaking to the people that are younger and have more hair than me right now that this could be a multiyear issue that you're not ready for and many of us have forgotten about. So please keep that in mind and and please make the necessary adjustments in terms of research, analysis, your broker, whatever you have done, go back and look and say, okay.
• 15:03
  Am I ready for three or four years where it's tougher than I've been ever before in my farm? And even if you're wrong, it'll make you a better marketer. I I believe that genuinely. The last thing I'll close with is the idea that, president Trump is is going after China because he has a thing for China, I don't believe that at all. I think he truly believes there is strategic and geopolitical issue that The United States has needs to contain.
• 15:35
  So I think his people underneath him are very serious. Todd and I talked, several weeks ago, and I talked about a Robert Lighthizer book, No Trade is Free. If you've read that, I'm currently on Kevin Hassett's book, The Drift. And don't let the subtitle mess with you because it says how America can stop being going into a socialist mindset. He talks a lot about the first Trump administration and what was going on in their trade practices.
• 16:06
  And Lighthizer and Hassett both grew up like we did in the middle of the country and saw their manufacturing get hollowed out. So these trade people that President Trump has, they're very serious about bringing manufacturing back here and containing China.
• 16:25
  Todd Gleason: Brian, you're five minutes or Ten. Ten. Three. So wherever you land. Let's just,
• 16:32
  Brian Stark: try and wrap that all up together, and I'll maybe take a little bit more positive outlook as I look at some of the things that we've seen, even though the last ten days, have been kind of a bloodbath in the corn market. I think part of what we have to realize is that the market, and and others on the soybean panel mentioned this, doesn't like an uncertainty. And one of my old, mentors who I stay in contact, who's a real I call a smart guy in the industry, said, to me earlier this week, Brian, the market is drunk on uncertainty. And I think that's kinda puts into play that they're having to rewrap themselves, like Mike said, around, Trump's dialogue and how he negotiates. And I think a lot of that spooks, some of the liquidation, here over the last ten days.
• 17:22
  We've done some really strong technical damage, to the corn chart. Now today, we're maybe finding a temporary bottom, from the liquidation. But if you really think back as as some of the things that Sue mentioned, in patterns, you can also extrapolate to what's currently happening. Nothing really fundamentally has changed. If you look at our export pace, some might argue it's front loaded.
• 17:47
  I would argue that you're at a pace now where for the last twenty seven weeks of the marketing year, you only have to sell 20,000,000 bushels a week to make the USDA estimate, current projection. We've averaged 50,000,000 a week the past ten weeks. Alright. So demand on the export perspective is strong worldwide. That's a positive.
• 18:11
  The other positive when you look at domestic usage, the Southeast, area of the country had one of the smallest corn crops it's had in quite some time this past fall. The demand for unit trains out of the East, which is a lot of the area that we cover, is robust. Their coverage has not been extended out into the summer months. So when you talk about a producer who is very good at marketing his old crop on this rally, some would argue between two thirds to three quarters, maybe even 80% sold. And you have an end user that has not really extended coverage into the summer.
• 18:50
  And why haven't they done that? Because up until the last two weeks, we had a July SEP board inverse of 35¢. No one wants to extend deferred coverage if we believe that the corn may be cheaper as we get into the summer because of the inverted structure. So because of that, now you have an end user that has a strong demand base. We've got a board that's broke.
• 19:13
  We've got the farmer that is 80% sold. Where is the strength and the supply gonna come as we transition on old crop into the summer months? Corn still has a story. Fundamentally, I don't see a lot that's changed. I can agree there's arguing some of the front loaded on the export side, but there's a lot of feed usage in the East that still needs to be covered.
• 19:39
  The West, you could argue, there might be some downtick because of the high prices of corn. A couple months ago, we're starting to see wheat and milo substitute into some of the livestock rations. But ethanol, when you look at ethanol's pace, the January crush was 1% above the same time last year. Alright. And then I will kind of end, before we go to questions, turning to new crop, the other element of bearishness this week, the projection of 94,000,000 acres of planted corn, which in turn is what we need if we have a a potentially shrinking old crop supply.
• 20:16
  But I would point back to last year at this time in the Outlook Forum when we only projected 90,600,000. So fundamentally, we So fundamentally, we are still in a very delicate situation on the corn side. Even if we plant 94,000,000, we still have to have a really good crop this summer.
• 20:47
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Anybody got a question they wanna ask? When you're ready, let me know. Okay. So, Sue, he talked about the Southeast and what the livestock situation was there.
• 20:56
  You're closer to to the livestock section. Certainly, Iowa has plenty of pork, but what's what was demand for pork poultry and beef in the Western Part of The United States? Here in Illinois, we have production, but not like you all do.
• 21:16
  Sue Martin: Well, the, the I would say, first off, if we look at, the cattle industry, we have, I believe, signs that we're starting a whole back of heifers. Talking like to clients in South Dakota and talking to two buyers in that state, they were telling me that the amount of number of heifers that our banks tested is huge, which would mean those are heifers that are gonna be held back. And so I think we're just getting the start. If we get into where we get some good moisture for the pastures, that's going to help incentivize that. Your price of feeder cattle is I mean, we look like we might have double topped a little bit here
• 22:16
  Brian Stark: this week.
• 22:16
  Sue Martin: So that should be drawing and bringing cattle industry maybe where we see a whole bag of heifers. And then we've been feeding cattle heavy, just to and the packers part of that because they were managing their, their kill and trying to prop up their meat price. But so they, held back the kill, kind of kept it down, but also the feedlots were feeding cattle heavier with corn. The hog producer, if, the USDA is right, they're looking at, 3% more pork production this year. Now that could come through pounds.
• 22:57
  If it does, then that means you're actually feeding more meal and corn. And then you look at the chicken industry and other than bird flu, the chicken industry has been pretty it can bounce back pretty fast after bird flu. I think our feed usage is going to be very good for corn. One thing I think of when I look at corn is that the stocks to usage ratio, you know, we went from 10 a little over 10% to 12, and a little over 12 in this Ag
• 23:39
  Todd Gleason: Form From
• 23:40
  Sue Martin: old to new crop.
• 23:41
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. For the Ag Form
• 23:43
  Sue Martin: numbers. Yes. So that's a change in from that year. Now I talked about the year of '94 to '95. Back then, our stocks to usage ratio was 16.1% or something like that.
• 23:56
  And in '95 to '96, the stocks to usage ratio fell to 5%, like 5.6%. And I wonder if we aren't looking at that again. I think the demand for corn is out there. Mexico is our largest corn buyer, and then it might be Japan. But Mexico is a very large buyer, and they've had drought.
• 24:20
  And it sounds like they might be dealing with that possibly again this year. So I don't see them changing. And recall, they recently, in the last, what was it, month or so, they, went ahead and started to accept GMO corn again, which was a change. And so I look at the demand for corn. I think it's gonna remain good.
• 24:44
  I think the market went up very, you know, very progressive. You know, its low was August 30, and it just kinda kept doing the stair step higher. And I think it kinda overextended itself. Now we could have a break here. And if the well, we are having a break here.
• 25:03
  It's like a slide. And if we, start to catch into a weather market, first, it could be delayed planting only to turn around and come back with a hot and dry situation. I know we're dry where I'm coming from. Northwest or Northern Iowa, North Central Iowa, very dry, and you guys from the air looked like you were dry here. And so, I think this weather's going to be very key, very interesting.
• 25:34
  You know, the soybeans stocks to usage ratio, basically at 7.2% projected for new crop, that's that's and then a carryover of 320. You know, beans could still surprise you and have a story. But the only thing is corn made higher highs for this year over last year. When I went back and I looked at years of where corn tended to make higher highs over the previous year, and especially in those years of five, they did not take out the previous year's low. And if the previous year's low was $3.60, maybe $3.60 and a quarter, something like that, and the December contract, its low was $3.80 and a half.
• 26:19
  So there's nothing saying Decorin can't go down and look at that $3.80 and a half and maybe even take it out. It could. But do we take out $3.60? I doubt it. So I think that kind of narrows in something of what we're looking for for a range.
• 26:36
  But I would say to you, I would probably be inclined to say if you're making new crop sales, that's fine. $4.70 is your your, insurance price. But if you're making those sales and on a and we're getting these hard breaks, take advantage of call spreads where you buy one that's maybe as close to the money or a little bit out of the money and then you turn around and you sell one. For example, like maybe you would do, I would do the September call spreads because then you're not paying for all the time value of December. And if we have a weather market, you're sure gonna know it by the time those, September options expire in August.
• 27:23
  But the call spreads will help cheapen up the money you're gonna put in, and it's a price of insurance for you to at least have your, ceiling, or I should say your floor covered. And if the market goes higher, you're gonna be a happy person because you'll be getting something back towards that price.
• 27:44
  Todd Gleason: You are correct. We are dry here. I happen to have about 40 farms across, the Midwest in my Agrible daily numbers that come out in the little email. And most of them, actually, on year to date does everybody get an email? Most in everybody get an email from Agrible still?
• 28:03
  I still get an email every morning from Agrible with about 40 farms in it. About, a third from a third. Oh, but we're only in March. But about a third of the rainfall. So normally five to six inches in this part of the world, and we have around two or something like that.
• 28:20
  So what is
• 28:21
  Mike Zuzolo: on your list that you wanted to make sure we heard about today that I have not asked you? I I feel like that the low in the market that we're looking for right now really still needs to come from wheat, Todd, and I think it ties back into what Sue and Brian were talking about with the weather. We've we found some fresh, crop conditions numbers. Kansas went up, but several other key states like Oklahoma and Nebraska went down as much, if not more, versus last month. If we're going to have a weather market, I think it starts with the break in the dormancy.
• 28:55
  Illinois went down substantially as well versus, the last count too on the soft red wheat. But I feel like that if we're gonna have a weather market, it starts with the wheat. You had asked the question or someone had asked the question the previous panel, why is the corn such a favorite? I would answer that that it's really about world stocks of wheat and world stocks of corn versus world stocks of beans. And when we see a record ending stocks number for soybeans right now and the second highest since 1994 in stocks to use ratios with Brazil harvesting, I would not recommend being wide open on both corn and beans right now.
• 29:37
  New crop beans, I'm at 50% recommended hedges, zero on corn, zero on wheat. If wheat doesn't make a low this is my plan of action to kind of set my marker. My plan of action right now is if we don't have a wheat led low on weather and dry weather still hitting us in the Western Corn Belt through the Central Corn Belt, by March 14 when March goes off the board, I will look at doing some paper positions on corn because there is a gap in the daily continuation chart in corn that is right down there where Sue's talking about. So I I I believe firmly that funds do like to chase gaps nowadays if given the right reasons.
• 30:17
  Todd Gleason: So that stocks I was talking it was a stocks to use ratio question. Thank you. But that that
• 30:22
  Mike Zuzolo: was talking about stocks and stocks to
• 30:23
  Todd Gleason: use. Yeah. Ending. Mhmm. Yeah.
• 30:25
  Yeah. Ending stocks and stocks to use. And so rightfully so, you you point out the world stocks. So I I wanna know, what difference does for corn do world stocks to use ratios make compared to domestic stocks to use to ratio. So we Sue Sue pointed out 10% for old crop, 12% for new crop, 1,540,000,000 bushels carry out now, 1.9 something for the next year.
• 30:55
  And I will put this caveat in because it always makes a difference as short short crop are really high prices, long tail. And so you kinda remember the high prices. But the farmdoc team is telling me that, you know, prices back to where we are long term probably below their numbers, $4.60 for corn. Is it $11.20 for soybeans? Is that right?
• 31:19
  I think that's the number or thereabouts. So what what are you thinking as it's related to the impact of global stocks in corn on our domestic price and how we should use it?
• 31:32
  Brian Stark: I I think the the global stocks is is a tremendous important part, not just domestic stocks to use ratio. I mean, if you just take one example today and why our export program has been so robust and it makes it feel even tighter than what our domestic stocks to use ratio at 10% would be. Brazil, even though their biggest crop, is the safrida crop, they have not had any measurable competitive offer on the marketplace still. And I think even through this low period, until that comes to fruition, our our carryout's gonna feel a lot tighter on a domestic perspective because of its incorporation into the world side. So it is a world, stocks to use ratio percentage as a component of that.
• 32:22
  And I think when you have, the seasonality of other world countries' production coming online, if the timing isn't there, it's gonna make it feel much tighter than maybe it is on paper.
• 32:34
  Todd Gleason: Who's got a question out here they wanna answer asked? Yes. Birth flu. About bird flu. Avian influenza, you discussed it just a little bit.
• 32:44
  Sue so but let let's take up, from your perspective, going into the Southeast, and I think you're mostly hogs, but probably some of the poultry flocks. How much of an impact has it had there, and does that differ from other parts of the Midwest?
• 33:02
  Brian Stark: It's been really hard to tell because of their short really short, crop this year, Todd. We have not seen a downtick in demand. I although agree with the fact that most of it is the hog sector. But the poultry sector continues to have very, robust demand where I think some of that is a function of the crop size. And maybe it's hard to tell exactly the impact that we're seeing for some of the bird flu as far as their overall needs.
• 33:35
  Todd Gleason: Mike, do we have an idea on
• 33:37
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. The big thing that I keep track of is the meal market, and it's been a leader to the downside. And without sustainable aviation fuel that the panel the bean panel talked about and no clarity there, we really need the product markets to step up here if Brazil's got this kind of a size of bean crop. Ellen made an excellent point about the buckets of demand when it comes to corn versus beans. And both product markets look like they're limping right now, and the trade's trading it like they're limping.
• 34:04
  And we keep making new twenty twenty five lows in meal, and we're getting very dangerously close to the twenty twenty four lows in meal. And so that really is a wake up call to us that we've got some issues when it comes to those long term charts like Brian's talking about.
• 34:18
  Todd Gleason: Anything else on bird flu from you, Sue?
• 34:20
  Sue Martin: Or Well, I just think that the bird flu, I think that that's that is something that we can repopulate so fast, that that's a good meal, soy meal user. There's one thing a little a little off that question that I wanna add is Ukraine is number four exporter of corn in the world. And if we can get things settled the way they should be, then maybe that opens the door for them to start exporting a little more, but their production isn't what I call super robust, and the weather over in the Black Sea region hasn't been what I call super ideal either. So when Mike talks about wheat, I agree with him and it may just also be other parts of the world coming back with not very good production. If you take wheat and rice and your stocks to usage ratio globally is shrinking on those two, and then you throw coarse grains into it that starts shrinking, that's a very bullish, scenario for the corn market.
• 35:35
  Todd Gleason: Wait. Did you just say bullish?
• 35:37
  Sue Martin: Yeah. I did. Alright.
• 35:38
  Todd Gleason: She said bullish. Now the questions come. Who else has it? Yes.
• 35:42
  Sue Martin: Todd, I should remind you. I'm the girl that said beans could go to $30 on market to market too.
• 35:48
  Todd Gleason: I thought it was 23. Was it $30? Was it Yeah.
• 35:50
  Sue Martin: It was 30 on beans and 42 on wheat and corn falls in between.
• 35:57
  Todd Gleason: What year?
• 35:58
  Sue Martin: And I well, I thought it was coming sooner and the markets took off and exploded. That was in February of twenty one.
• 36:05
  Todd Gleason: Yeah.
• 36:06
  Sue Martin: But I thought China I never dreamed they'd stay in lockdown for three years.
• 36:10
  Mike Zuzolo: Right.
• 36:11
  Sue Martin: And they were a major component of that. But it's the main component behind all that was we were gonna see countries around the world start building reserves like they did in the old days. Back in 'ninety four, I think it was, they started going towards just in time inventory. And so that they got complacent because we were producing as a country, US, and exporting. We had record crops every other year in the nineties.
• 36:36
  So they decided why should we have reserves and spend all that money? We'll just buy it as we need it until COVID hit. And they've got caught flat footed and are empty handed and, hungry people fight. And they started to realize that wasn't such a sexy idea. And so we started seeing countries starting to build reserves.
• 36:57
  China has built a bunch of new reserves in the past year. And, but I also think that with China being in lockdown for three years, they were such a huge player for that scenario. And they I think they still can be. They just have to get their economy going, which I thought was kind of interesting today when they talked about their tariffs on corn, wheat, and cotton. I thought it was interesting they included cotton in that because China's a huge textile producer, and they need cotton for that.
• 37:34
  And Brazil's cotton went in late and from what I'm hearing went in very late and, that I think The US has cotton they could export and cotton prices aren't so great. So I wonder if now with beans breaking like they are, it'll be interesting to see. Can beans steal some acres away from cotton? But I thought it was interesting that they included cotton this time.
• 37:57
  Todd Gleason: Any other questions out here? Surely, they are. Somebody have one they wanna ask.
• 38:02
  Sue Martin: That was all.
• 38:04
  Todd Gleason: We've exhausted the topic. Surely not. We'll talk about it again when? Tomorrow. Let's stop on a bullish snow.
• 38:13
  He wants to stop on a bullish snow. That means I can't ask them to wrap up in that case, but but let's do that. We probably should. We'll we'll let you all wrap up. We'll let Sue go last.
• 38:24
  Mike, why don't you start for me, please?
• 38:26
  Mike Zuzolo: Well, I don't have a lot of intelligent things to say as you can tell by today already. But I do have to talk about the president Trump similarities one more time, and it relates to Commodity Week, and it relates to the University of Illinois. And what a family we have here. Long, long time ago, we were on Commodity Week and Donald Trump was doing his famous TV program. And I was on Commodity Week with, Paul Cooley.
• 38:51
  And Paul looked at me after I said something, and he said, if I were Donald Trump, I'd fire you.
• 38:59
  Todd Gleason: It it is I seem to recall that.
• 39:01
  Mike Zuzolo: It is a it is a family that we have. I one other quick anecdotal note is many of you have seen your kids grow up on the farm. When we used to Wayne brought this to mind when we used to have to drive to Will radio on Friday afternoon for the Saturday taping. It was an hour and forty minutes from Lafayette each way. So I take my wife and small children with me, and they became very well acquainted with the cafeteria in the downstairs.
• 39:27
  And Joan Harshberger was Harshberger was always there with some PBS kids stuff to help them play and keep them busy while we did the, while we did the, the commodity week. And my children, who are in their twenties now, still talk about that today, about how they grew up with such a cool place to go to and get all these neat things from the people at Will Radio. So it is a very special place, and I'm honored to be here today.
• 39:52
  Todd Gleason: Thank you. I miss those days of recording on Friday afternoon. I don't suppose many people miss driving the hour and a half to get there. We record on Thursdays. Now given that and because you're in Atchison, we do record at a bar once a month.
• 40:07
  Right? You know that. Right? So we do record. If Kurt Kimmel is on,
• 40:11
  Mike Zuzolo: it used to be if Kurt
• 40:12
  Todd Gleason: and Wayne were on, but now if Kurt is on, probably at a bar. Makes for good shows, but we're and you never hear it in the background. You never hear it in the or rarely hear it in the background, but we do record there. And once in a while, I said that on the air thinking somebody will show up, and they do occasionally. Particularly in the summer times when we're at Riggs, you're all invited.
• 40:33
  I'll let you know. Come to Riggs in in Urbana. Great place. Nice little brewery and a fantastic place to record commodity week. You can have a beer with us.
• 40:42
  You probably won't hear us record commodity week, but you can have a beer with us when we're there. Brian Stark.
• 40:48
  Brian Stark: Well, I think I heard Mike say earlier that, if we want corn prices to rally, it needs to be led by wheat. So, Todd, maybe we should do all of our shows at the bar to support the,
• 41:00
  Todd Gleason: the wheat market. Support wheat. Wheat
• 41:02
  Mike Zuzolo: beer. Okay.
• 41:03
  Brian Stark: Yeah. No. I I think, Danny mentioned this earlier on the soybean panel. For me, it kinda ties into Mike's recommendations on corn. I think with the recent break, everyone needs to talk to their insurance agent about ECO.
• 41:16
  I am a really big proponent of it. I know it's a county based add on product. But at 95% of your $4.70 price, with the first layer being from the county, your price floor, all things being equal, with that particular county's yield is four forty six and a half. Today, that's kind of where the East corn is trading. So there really isn't a ton of incentive with a sound insurance revenue policy to be aggressive selling new crop corn today, especially with some of the fundamentals that I talked about earlier.
• 41:49
  So please talk to your agents. I think that's the first step in your price risk management for the 25 growing season.
• 41:57
  Todd Gleason: Sue Martin, thank you for coming in.
• 42:00
  Sue Martin: Well, first off, I've done, commentary and, worked with, WLL for a very long time. And, it's been a wonderful time, and and, I even remember when Charlie Lindy, and I think it was in Champaign, that it had been my birthday, and he had and I was speaking there, and he had birthday cake. And I'm not gonna tell you what year that was, but, I will say, it's been a great privilege to work with WIL. It's just I sit here and I hear all the, speakers that you have and and, everything you guys do. And I'm kinda, like, envious.
• 42:50
  I wish I would have that. You know, it's it's a great thing. So you're you're very blessed as producers to be able able to have that. And, so I I feel honored to be able to be here today. And, then I I guess the one thing I could say is, I do think we have to keep in mind that as a lead contract in corn, we have made higher highs for the year over 2024.
• 43:18
  I don't think $3.60 is coming out, so I think that was your worst. But never say never in this business, you know, for an outside range year, but I've not seen an annual year of an outside range year. And that's going back to 1968. So I think what you have is, trying to use summer rallies that you'll get. I think we could get one into July this year, and I would utilize those summer rallies to do some marketing.
• 43:49
  Why? Because remember, nine out of, say, the last ten years ending in a five tend to break down into the end of the year or latter part of the year. And if you break down but you don't close lower for the year, that could be a good sign for next year.
• 44:08
  Todd Gleason: Indeed. Thank you. Give these folks a nice round of applause. Sue and Brian and Mike, we appreciate you coming up.