Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | September 28, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | September 28, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going on?
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What is going on? Everybody? Happy Thursday nights? Some of
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: you joined live, maybe got some football on the top right,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: top left screen, got us on one of the screens.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Help everybody out there. Enjoyed the week off last week? Hey,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: big time card now new Eastern fourteen fights Paris Frans,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Big Boy, DFS, car Big Marley. I'm pumped. Take a
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: couple awesome fights, litter throughout main event PSD always a
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: lot of fun as well. The French gonna get it
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: done this week. The French gonna fall on their face.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: We're gonna see a split. What do you think and
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: how is your weekend going?
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: I feel like I got a decent mixture of the
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: French winning and losing, so hopefully just goes. However, my
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: lineups look by the time Sunday or Saturday starts. But
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: I love that it's a fourteen fight card. I think
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: it's pretty tough for that reason. A couple fights I
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: want to zone in on, but other than those, it's
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of mixing around. There's only a
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: few fights I'm looking to fade or get away from.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think it's a great DFS card and
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: Hopefully we're gonna keep all fourteen fights.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully we keep all fourteen. Again, if we lost one,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: it wouldn't be the worst. Like I'd rather lose a
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: fight here than I would a twelve fight card down
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: to eleven. But it's not like if we lost one here,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: we're we're guaranteed not to lose another one, Like we
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: don't ever want to lose fights. Keep fourteen. I think
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: it's one of the best DFS cards we've seen in
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: a while. As you see right now, we have the
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Stone up. This is a piece of our MMA content.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: We also have the Stone for MLB, PGA, NFL, something
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Djen brought over. Just a one stop shop everything you need,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: DraftKings prices, fan duel pricing. When we have our ownership
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: and projections, that's on here. Big Marley's Fight Rankings talks
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: about it a little two weeks ago. One is awful,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: needs very little interest. Five star means great, a lot
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: of interests, and the more stars next to the name,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: the better. He likes that fighter. So like he says
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: he likes BSD more than Moy Kano, he definitely likes
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Umar Si more than Don Moon Jung. So that's how
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: you read that, the record, the odds inside, the distance,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: prop age, height, reach what they actually do, weigh in
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: at if there's any asterisk next to it, they missweight
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: and then reach significant strikes per minute, significant strikes landed
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: per minute, takedowns per fifteen minutes. A one stop shop
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: awesome stuff right here. We have a slate plan brace
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: on all the fights. How to tack it from DFS
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: fight rankings. Big Marley goes more depth, predicts the winner,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: what round, and then how he does like them, how
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: it pertains to the card. Everything you need in MMA,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: all you need right here, got you covered, Core reports, projections,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: ownership shift, Tomizer, we have MMA as well, no better time,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: head over Shipinnation dot com. So much going on getting
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: the discord with a lot of awesome people. Mike our Man,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Sean Sullivan, Nickels in here, Ben in here as well.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Appreciate every single one of you. Hit that like, hit
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: that subscribe. I mean I don't have broad slid overview.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I don't have much like it's a great, great card.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: It's an MMV card. I think every card is fourteen
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: fights though, means you need to probably take more stands
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: or you just raise your men uniques up a little bit,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: like diversify more more cards, more combinations, means ownership spread
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: out a little more. You don't have to be as
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: crazy in some stuff, like there's gonna be fifty k
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: lineups that aren't due because there's so many more options
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: than usual. So yeah, I think it's a great card.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to go through it. Any initial thoughts though
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: at first.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: No, No, no real initial thoughts.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: Any any groups you're gonna have, and how many fades
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: do you have? Any ross like, yeah, I.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Guess yeah, I think my You see my one star
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: there with Lapalis fight, I'm gonna fade that fight. Aside
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: from that, I mean my two stars. Usually I fade
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: if I'm making like ten or less lineups. But aside
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: from that Lapalis fight, I don't know how many fades
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have. Once we talk through it, i'll know more.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: But I haven't done my notes yet. That's usually where
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: like it's even either I do the notes first or
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: the podcast first, and then it helps me out with
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: the other one. But this is the first go for me,
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: so we'll see.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: All right, let's do it start from bottom to top.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: As always, first fight of the night. You have a
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: four star, it's minus one seventy to finish. I think
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: it's one to look at Lagi Okie taking on Chris
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Duncan minus one eighty Oki plus one fifty five is
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: Duncan again minus one seventy for this fight to finish
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: minus one oh five on the Oki side plus four
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: hundred on the Duncan side. Looks like a great fight
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: to target right from the get go Oki minus one
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: oh five to finish this fight at eighty eight hundred.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: The ownership I think has to stay in check to
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: some extent, just because BSD at nine k will be
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: the highest owned on the card. After that, I think
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: ownership is relatively They all eat into each other. I
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: do think Chris Duncan's one of the most popular underdogs
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: on the slate, but I think rightfully so he has
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: a lot going for him big time upside. You see
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: four point eight eight significant strikes per minute, three point
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: eight five takedowns per fifteen, so he has wrestling upside.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Oki is a primary striker, so I do think Duncan's
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: easiest path is mixing in takedowns, and he's not a
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: bomb on the feet himself. Either plus four hundred inside
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: the distance. I do think Duncan has some money coming
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: back on him as this week is ending plus one
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: fifty five for the price is great with wrestling upside,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: that equals a very good dog play for me. Will
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: be my preferred side unless ownership looks something crazy. How
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: do you see this first fight going down?
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a good first fight to target.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: If it goes the distance, I think it could go
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: either way. I do think Duncan is real, live and
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: a decision I think he could be the one that
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: scores more than ten x. I do think it's gonna
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: be hard for Oki to score more than ten x
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: if he wins a decision here. So I kind of
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: think it's knockout or bust DFS wise for Oki, but
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: he is like right around pick them to minus one
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: twenty to get a TKO at some point in the fight.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: DraftKings has money line finish only minus three hundred almost
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: for Oki on that so, I do think he's a
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: lot more dangerous. I like his striking overall a little
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: bit more. He's got nasty body shots throws with a
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: lot of power. Duncan can eat a lot of shots
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: but he was almost put out in his Contender Series fight,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: and I could just see Oki actually finishing him if
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: he's hitting him that hard. So I am going to
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: pick OK get the TKO at some point, but I
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: don't love the eighty eight hundred dollars price tag. The
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: only way I want to get overweight to OK is
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: if the field's really not gonna be on them much.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: And I haven't done ownership yet, so I'm not sure
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: what I'm thinking he's gonna be at. We'll have that
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: posted over at ship in Nation tomorrow, probably tomorrow afternoon,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: something like that. But yeah, I think you're right, Duncan
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: will probably be the higher owned one in this so
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: that that does make me like OK a little bit,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: But I think Duncan.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Makes sense.
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: Seventy four hundred dollars. One of the more live dogs
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: on the card. Money kind of keeps coming in on
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: him too, so that line could tighten even more. He
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: could get takedown, so he could get a knockout himself,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: but he could land high enough volume to even get
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: close to a seventy four hundred dollars price tag in
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: a striking match if he's able to win it. So
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: I don't hate the Duncan call at all, but ownership
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: might shift me to OK be in my preferred place
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: since I am picking him to get a t K.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm curious on what you're gonna have ownership. I'm
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: not convinced Duncan will be higher owned than OK, but
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: relative to like the underdog dog said, Duncan's priced around,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: I think he'll be higher own than a lot of them,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: whereas Oki. Look at some moo he's priced around. We
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: have battle eighty five, Oki will be higher eighty nine.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: I think I'm Oki has better inside the distance prop
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: than one hundred cheaper, so he's probably higher there, higher
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: than Lapolis, probably higher than barrez is the dog. So
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: just in the range Calvicante, I think OKI's higher on
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: there is a better inside the distance. So yeah, I'm
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: curious to what you have no ownership. I think it'll
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: both be moderate, but relative to who Duncan's around, I
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna be a pretty chalky dog. Not much
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: more to add though, good fight Duncan upside and a win,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: and he's a dog, so even seventy two could be enough.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: More fights usually the more upside you need. But Oki definitely,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: he's minus one oh five to finish. He clearly has upside.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: Let's go to the next fight where I really wanted
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: your take on this one, because and I think I
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: got it as a two star Jaquelin, Cavalcante nor Cornell
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred kla Conte plus one seventy Cornell plus
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: two fifty for this fight to finish one of the
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: most likely to go to the distance on the card
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: calvi Conte plus six twenty five inside the distance and
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Cornell plus three fifty, So the dog has a way
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: better inside the distance prop as a twelve hundred point
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: or coming with twelve hundred dollars savings. I'm going to
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: probably fade Calvicante unless you tell me something otherwise. I
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: was probably gonna fade corn Hole, but I already found
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: four fades like William Gomi's. His upside feels trash on
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: this card. Why would I not rather just go a Cornhole?
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Who's another one that I look like Da Wunjong. I
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: don't want two points in my line on Roosevelt, Roberts More,
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Vince Morales fight stuff like that, So I don't know.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: I guess, are you keeping Cornell in the pool. Are
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: you playing Calvialcante. Do you think this fight hits the
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: mat at all? It is a remap, so break it
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: all down.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Calvicante is just a cleaner overall striker.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I like her to get a decision winning this one,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: but at eighty seven hundred, I'm really not looking to
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: play her at all. I don't think she has much
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: finishing upside money line finished only for this one. Cornole's
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: favored minus one forty five there, so I do think
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: she does make sense as an underdog only seventy five
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars. I think she's more likely to mix in
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: takedowns as well, so she's just gonna have a much
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: easier time paying off her price tag if she is
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: able to get her hand raised.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So I'll keep her in the playerpool.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: But since I'm picking Cavalcanti to win a decision, I
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: probably won't get that much cornoll It'll just have to
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: depend on how many lineups I make, what my underdogs
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: are looking like. I got a few on the main
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: card I like a lot more, so I'll be going
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: to them first and then maybe after I get you know,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty lineups. Bill I'll be shifting a little
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: bit of those over to the corn Hole side. Yeah,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: I think Cavalcanti might be someone I look to x
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: out here, because even if she does win all three
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: rounds on the scorecards, I don't think she's hitting ten
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: x that eighty seven hundred dollars price tag. I think
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: she's gonna score somewhere between sixty and seventy five have
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: points most likely, and that's just not going to cut
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: it at that price. So not interested in Cavalcanti. The
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: only reason this isn't a one star in my opinion
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: is just the corn Hole side.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I think she does score well.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Or at least has a chance to score well if
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: she can win this fight.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So she's my preferred play of the two. But I
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: think she loses.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: And again it's if somehow we have three favorites minus
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: five hundred or greater. Multiple favorites minus two to fifty
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: are greater. If two underdogs win and Cornhole's one of
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: them and scores seventy eight, that could be enough. So
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: you do have that out as well, and why the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: savings twelve hundred dollars savings. The dog is my preferred play,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: and it's inside the distance prop calvi Kanzi is a play,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: a one to fifty play only when you're jamming BSD
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: the cute lava fight, leaving zero dollars like you're really chalky.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: That's where you could throw a Calvicanti in, But not
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: for me on this one. I'm fading her in twenty
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: and below. Probably gonna keep corn Hole in the pool,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: just for the reasons we talked about, but not someone.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: I love you there if I were thirty percent cornal,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: and then excuse me manually bumping her down. Let's get
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: to another very interesting fight on this card, one where
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: as you notice right away in the stone, Daniel Barr's
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: eighty four hundred is the dog taking on Victor Ultra
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Morano eighty four hundred Barres seventy eight hundred Ultimrano and
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: seventy eight hundred Ultra Morano's minus one twenty five Barras
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: plus one h five. This fight again favored to go
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: the distance minus two sixty for this fight to go
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: the distance, plus two hundred for to finish. Barres the
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: underdog better finishing prop at plus three seventy five Altra
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Morano plus four fifteen. So this line opened minus won
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: ten a piece. Barres then got steam a little bit
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: to minus one forty range ever since then, al To
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Mornanto slowly, but Suirley has gotten money back. So you
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: have to think Ultra Morano one of the most popular
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: dogs on this card. Daniel Barres very low owned on
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: this card as the pivots man. Bars has clean hands.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: This is a really interesting fight for me because you
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: see Barres four point zero seven takedowns per fifteen all
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: to Toronto three point four to three. But if I
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: look at both, I think they're both primary strikers, like
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: the Carlos Hernandez fight on Contender series. That is where
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: the Barres numbers are coming from. He had five takedowns.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: He did fine, but against Fiallo, like he showed his striking,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: he mixes to the body well, fast hands. Al To
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Morano he's just a junkyard dog that'll walk forward, gases
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: opponents out, mixing some takedowns. Do you think this fight
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: plays out on the mat a lot? Are we getting
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of scrambles and stuff or do you think
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: it mainly plays out on the feet and what are
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: you doing with it?
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure about this one. I think it's
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: definitely in play, and it's closer to a four star
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: than it is a two star in my opinion. But
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: I don't have a real lean in this one. I
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: think Barres is the more dangerous fighter really everywhere. I
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: think he's going to be the more dangerous on the
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: ground and more dangerous on the feet. But alt Morono's
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: just awkward and he fights at a high pace. He
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: could throw a lot of volume on the feet. He
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: can land a lot of takedowns. I think he had
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: nine takedowns maybe in his last fight, and yeah, had
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: nine takedowns and he lost the fight. Seventy two DraftKings
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: points and a loss. I mean that's solid. I don't
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: think Barres has nine takedowns in his in his game.
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: So the way I see it is, if it goes
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: to decision, I lean out to Morano. If there's a finish,
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I leen Barrez. And when I did this fight, out
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: to Morano was like plus one to ten or something
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: like that. So I picked him by split decision because
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: he had the plus next to his name.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: If I did it right now, I.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: Probably would have picked Barrs Because I just don't have
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: a lean. So let me get the person with the
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: plus next to their name, But I do think Barres
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: needs the finish. If he gets it, though he's he's
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: got a good chance of being on the optima lineup
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: at eighty four hundred dollars at low ownership, So I'm
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: thinking my preferred play is shifted in this one. Give
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: me Barres at lower ownership, but it's right there in
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: the mid range for both guys, So I just like
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: getting both sides of it, and I might up it.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: To a four star.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: By the time the fight start, I'll be getting a
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: fair share of both of them. But the line movement
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: is what's making me like bars more for DraftKings.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Great breakdown for all that, and something to add as well.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Like Bors, Barras has to be low owned and ultra moronano. Meanwhile,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: while he is seventy eight hundred and a favorite, he
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: can't be crazy owned because you go to this seven
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: fight right here Qute laber Erslan, another dog seventy nine
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: hundred that's the favorite in a fight that's minus six
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: hundred to finish. So this fight is going to get
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: a lot of the mid tier ownership. And then you
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: also go to this next one. Three fights like this
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: on this card, the dog in ZM right in the
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: mid tier now the favorite at minus one thirty two
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: when this fight is supposed to finish at minus one
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: twenty five or this is one of the most likely
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: to go to the distance. So that where the bar
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: is super low on and ult Morano's ownership in check
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: enough where you play him as a dog. And boy,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: we got these little scrappers that'll throw a lot of volume,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: have takedown upside, a lot of volume. Like this is
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: a very small, say ample size with Barras sometimes you
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: have to look a little more into it. This is
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: one Contender Series fight and a first round finish where
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: he was on the losing end. This number could be higher.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I think this number. This is not his fighting style.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: This is a little misleading ALTI Morano will just do
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: whatever and push a pace like we said. So yeah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: I like to fight as well. Barres is a way
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: to get different for sure on this card. Let's keep
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight on the card another interesting one
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: in DFS, Aileen Perez taking on Daria sell Zakova. Perez
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: minus two to twenty five Daria plus one ninety plus
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: one eighty five for this fight to finish. We have
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: both girls plus three sixty five inside the distance. Not
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: often do you see, especially in a woman's fight, a
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: two k difference in pricing, yet the same inside the
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: distance prop. Thing with Aileen Perez very interesting. Bad money
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: line at minus two twenty five for his price. You
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: look at for her prize ninety one hundred minus two
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: twenty five minus or ninety two hundred two to eighty
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: two ninety four hundred minus six twenty five ninety three
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: hundred minus three sixty five. So you're giving up money
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: line value for Perez. You're giving up inside the distance
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: prop on a lot. Plus three sixty five is bad
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: in this range compared to a lot of others. But
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: you're playing four and paying for the five to nineteen
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: right here. Takedowns per fifteen minutes wrestler wrestler wrestler going
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: against a striker. We've seen her put up one thirty
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: eight before two or three wins, one ten and greater.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: I don't love it in this matchup. I will say
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: I'm on the Daria side, like, give me the two
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: k savings, give me the better striker. That's my preferred side.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: But Perez is someone you have to play if you're
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: playing twenty teams or more every single time. Just because
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: of that, A beef styles that she likes to say
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: it with the takedown upside, but yeah, how do you
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: see it going?
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, wrestler versus striker. I'm on the wrestler side in
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: this one. She's the one with the ceiling. If Perez wins,
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: I think she can get ten X. She could also
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: get one hundred and twenty points in this one. And
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: on the regional scene, she's like when she gets takedowns,
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: she's like real aggressive with her ground and pound. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: don't think she's done that quite as much in the UFC,
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: but it's just more she's willing to chain wrestle and
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: shoot for ten plus takedowns in a fight, which I
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: always love to see.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: And if she.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: Does win this fight, I expect her to score well
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: because it's gonna have to come through the ground. Lesnikova
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: is the better striker in this one, but I do
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: expect her to get taken down a handful of times.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: I like Perez to win the first round, So if
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Lesnikova is able to win the second of the third round,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: which I do think is possible, I still don't think
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: she scores enough. I don't even think she hit ten
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: x is in will win. I think she'll have to
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: win all three rounds or knock Perez out in order
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: to have a big score. Say she wins and Cornhole
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: score wins. I like Cornhole to to score more than her.
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: Same with Duncan, So I'm not gonna have a whole
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: lot as Lesni Covid in this one. And I'm hoping
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: that the line tightens up a little bit because I
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: would like Perez's ownership to come down and that'll make
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: me like her even more. She has one of the
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: higher ceilings on the card, a top two or three
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: ceiling on the card in my opinion, so I'll be
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: leaning with her. She's my leverage side, she's my pick
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: to win, but I'm not confident about her getting the win.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: I do think it's gonna be a tough one, especially
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: if she's struggling with takedowns. I mean, she she knocked
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: down Edwards in her last fight, so she can throw
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: some heat. But Selesni Covid just looks like such a
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: cleaner striker, and if the takedowns are failing on the
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: press side, I think she kind of gets picked apart.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: I just don't think it's gonna be high enough volume
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: for Selesni Covid to score well. So overweight to Perez,
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: underweight to Lesli Covid, this one, I'll be rooting to
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: see it's work after this.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: No, that all makes sense. My thing is like, I'm
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: not gonna get picked yet. A seventy one dollars win.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: If I'm picking her to win, she it's me seventy six.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: If it's not on the winner, it's not on the winner.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: But again, I think a couple of dogs come through
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: fourteen fights. I probably would like Zealzdakova more on a
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: twelve fight card. Ver seventy five is more likely to
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: be optimal. But again, I'm not gonna be picked two
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: picky at these prices in terms of what they score
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: and wins. What's going on. Takedown. Always appreciate you see
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: I appreciate seeing you in here. Appreciate it everyone. Most
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: people watch on playback. Make sure to watch early though.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know why I'm saying that you're
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: already watching, but twelve eastern noon Eastern fight starts. Set
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: your alarms if you were on the West coast, let's
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: keep it rolling to the one only one star fight
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: ranking of the night, and I totally agree. Anytime you
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: see the name Taylor Lapolis, you should expect a boring fight.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: Taylor Lapolis Vince Morales minus three sixty five Lapolis plus
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: two to ninety Morales plus two to fifteen excuse me, wow,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: plus two to fifteen for this fight to finish plus
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: three hundred on the Lapless side, plus six one hundred
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: on the Morales side. I mean, nothing lines up the
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: inside the distance. Prop's bad on both guys. You look
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: at the stone right here. Laplis four point three three
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Sinipians strikes per minute, point three to one takedowns, four
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: point one to seven for Morales, point one to four takedowns.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Lapless good takedown defense as well. I just don't see
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: this fight hitting the mat, which means you probably need
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: a early finish. And it's plus two to fifteen to finish,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: like it's clearly probably gonna be a decision, probably the
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Laplis win. When you look at the money line, you
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: need a big score at ninety three hundred, I just
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: don't see it. Two plus two egos four. I hope
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: that's what we get. Saturday.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Laplis just such a better striker in this one.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: He's not super dangerous, but he's gonna have to get
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: a TKO to pay off a ninety three hundred dollars salary.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: I just have no interest in paying that.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: And I do think he wins, So give me Lapolis
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: to go out there, probably win thirty twenty seven, but
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: put up seventy five points in the process.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: That's not gonna cut it.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: I think Morales would probably be my preferred play of
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: the two because he should be the one looking to wrestle.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: I just don't think he's a good enough wrestler to
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: be able to beat Lapalis. I think he's gonna get
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: picked apart on the feet, but not gonna get a
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: high score either way. And this one, that's how I
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: see it. So a one star is rare for me
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: to put. That's how little I like it. I'm just
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: gonna ex both of them out of my lineups.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Most likely.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: If I have one hundred and fifty, maybe I get
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: five percent Morales or something. But I just really don't
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: see me playing any Lapolis.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I might full fade Laplis in
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: one fifty two morales. If I have one fifty, I'll
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: sprinkle them in because they'll be really low on. But
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: I don't like this fight. One bit nice fight on
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: the card, another really really low on piece because we
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: have the biggest favorite on the card and looted to
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Klein taking on Roosevelt Roberts minus nine to fifty. Kline
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: plus six fifty is Roberts minus two ten for this
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. Minus one ninety is Clin plus nine
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: hundred is Roberts and Klein is plus one seventy in
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: round one. I mean, first of all, if you're betting
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: this fight, I don't know how it's not a dogger pass.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Like at least Roosevelt Roberts isn't a complete bum. He
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: has a big height advantage. Did you see six to
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: two against five to seven like he's I mean, before
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: he got caught, he was fighting naso Obaha Mundez was
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: gonna take him fifteen minutes like he has fought okay competition.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: He's tall, for the division hasn't been the best lately.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: So I just minus one thousand. I don't know how
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: you can lay that ever really in MMA in terms
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: of dfs, though it's gonna take a lot more teams
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: than twenty for me to get to Roberts. That side's easy.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Fourteen fights can get different in other ways, Klein, I
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: guess I'll throw it to you on this big marley,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: like he gets one to fifteen. What is his chances
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: he's on the winner At ninety six hundred BSD six
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: hundred less? Does Klein wrestle in this fight? I think
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: that's an interesting talking point. Yeah, talk about the client side.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're playing Roberts.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see me getting to Roberts.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: I think Roberts will have to grab a neck, just
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: get a submission in order to win this fight. Because
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: I do think Klein is the better wrestler of the two,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: and he's just such a better striker, way more dangerous
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: on the feet. Yeah, if you told me he was
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: gonna score one hundred and fifteen points, I would be
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: much more interested in him there, I think. I mean,
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: I think one hundred and five could be pushing it.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: So that's why I don't love him as much in
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: this one. I started as a three star, when I
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: might go back down to three stars because he is
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: ninety six hundred dollars. Oftentimes ninety six hundred dollars is
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: priced out of the optimal lineup, and I do like
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: people that are priced lower than him to possibly have
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: higher ceilings. So I won't get to a whole lot
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: of client I don't think. I mean, but if you
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: think one hundred and fifteen is like a defense win
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: score for him, then that makes cause.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I was mainly saying like if at ninety six hundred
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: is one to fifteen, like, is that seventy percent chance
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: to be on the optimal To be honest, I don't
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: even love it. I just plus one seventy in round
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: one isn't bad at all. And there could be a
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: takedown or two in there before he gets the finish,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: which could put you around that. But by no means
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: is he Uh who's some of the Isaac Dugary and
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: who we had pretty recently, like a bo Nickel who
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: we haven't had recently, But you know, he's just gonna
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: chain them forever, so it's not nearly a play like that.
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would think close to set sixty seventy percent
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: would be optimal for one hundred and fifteen in my opinion. Yeah,
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: I just don't think he gets there, so I'll be.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: If I had to guess, I would guess I had
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: get like thirty percent climb something along those lines.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: That might be close to the field. Yeah, I think
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: I like.
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: To do ownership before I do this, but I haven't
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: gotten to it yet. But I would imagine you're probably right.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: But minus nine p fifty, I think that brings them
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: up a little bit, especially if we have a lot
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: of live dogs on this one.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Let's compare it right here. We're going to group in
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: a fight. Almost never do this, Umar said. The next
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: one in dab woun jump is minus six twenty five
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: John plus four fifty The fight's same thing. Minus two
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: ten to finish. PI is two hundred cheaper than Clin
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: and he is. Let me get this right. Minus one
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: sixty to finis versus clients minus one ninety round one
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: prop plus one ninety for PI plus one seventy for client.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: It's about twenty cents better on the inside of the
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: distance and round one prop for Clin two hundred dollars
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: less is PI, though, and the big difference right here
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: again this number small sample inflated. But he is a wrestler.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: He is a grappler, he has that upside more. Who
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: do you like more in a vacuum? Because I think
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: SI will be higher owned for the savings, for knowing
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the wrestling and what's like. Minus six fifty is huge favorite.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Minus nine to fifty is obviously better, but at that
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: point you're not expecting either to lose. You take the upside.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, group those two together.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I like sy More.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I think the field will like sy More because I
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: just prefer wrestlers over grapplers.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: And I think SI finishes the fight on the ground.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: If he gets a finish and Kline gets a finish,
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: I think Kleine would be a knockout, a striking knockout.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: Maybe he gets one or two takedowns along the way,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: but SI probably lands one or two takedowns in the
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: first two minutes of the fight.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: So that's what I love to see.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: I just love to get these guys who go out
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: there shoot for a takedown in the first thirty seconds
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: of the fight, and then when he gets it there,
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: he could finish with the TKO with ground and pound,
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: or he could submit this guy.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I think the line favors him submitting him over the TKO.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: But he could do it all on the ground. I
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: like this Si kid, and he is two hundred dollars cheaper.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: So that's why I won't have a whole lot of
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Client is because I want a whole lot of Sigh.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I will be overweight to him.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: But let's say this fight got canceled tonight, that I'm
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: gonna double my ownership on Clin most likely, but I
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: think the field would also switch their lineups and his
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: ownership would just bump up big time. So give me
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: the two hundred dollars savings. I think at the scores
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: could be pretty close. But if I had to put
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: a win on both of them, I mean a winning
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: score on both of them right now, I would say
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Cy gets closer to one ten, uh, Klein gets closer
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: to one hundred.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Great break down. Yeah again, I think Sy will be
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: more popular because the two hundred savings the takedown upside,
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: the grappling upside a little more. Klein has it as well,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: but not I mean eight point oh seven for Sy
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: like he is a primary grappler. Client can strike two
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: is a good striker, nasty head kicks he mixes in
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: his wrestling, where Si more more primarily does that and
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: yeah side plus one thirty by plus three forty five.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I believe plus three forty by Kotko, I mean nasty
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: eighty three inch reach very highly touted prospects. As you
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: can see, ten and zero has not lost yet. Excited
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: for this fight, Dow Woum Jong's no joke. Like if
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: I'd to bet this fight too on the money line
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: on either side, I'm not laying over six hundred bucks
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: to win one hundred like I'm on that dav Woun
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Jong side betting wise, if I to take a sprinkle,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it for DFS, I don't think because
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it. Actually he's gonna be in my
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: pool because A I think he's actually a solid fighter himself,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: has fought solid competition if he can keep it on
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: the feet. This line is way off, and SI's gonna
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: be one of the highest soone on the slate. I
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: think direct leverage and Jung's gonna be one of the
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: lowest zone on the slate. So not only do you
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: have direct leverage off one of the chalkiest, you also
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: have a very little on fighter yourself who has finished
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: majority of his wins. So I don't think he's the
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: craziest play either. I prefer him over Roberts for sure
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: because closer money line value and you get the leverage
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: aspect there. Since SI will be higher on than Climb,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling. The next fight on the car
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: big one to talk about ion q t Laba taking
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: on ivan ursuline minus one oh one q Talaba minus
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: one nineteen ursuline minus six hundred for this fight to
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: finish qute Lava plus one oh five ersline plus one
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: th Already, if there was a fight I had to
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: go all in on besides the main event, it would
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: most definitely be this fight. Cute A Lava open the favorites.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Erslan has continued to take money, which now has them
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: as the favorites, even being four hundred dollars cheaper. Both
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: awesome inside the distance props as you see. Q Talava
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: absolute beast four point four to four significant strikes per
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: minute excuse me, four point one seven takedowns for the
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: Qutea or per fifteen minutes for qut Laba. Erslan, a
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: primary striker making his USC debut, most of his wins
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: might knockout a lot in the first round. Similar to
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: cute Laba KSW champion has fought solid competition like this
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Earthline dude looks kind of like the real deal. But
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: cute a Laba has been in the USC for a
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: minute now, fought the best of the best, So just
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: cute a Laba send send home packing this UFC debuter
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: or Erslon hype grow.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I'm picking cut Laba in this one.
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: I think Ersline will be one of the highest owned
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: fighters on the card in my opinion, especially if the
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: line keeps moving in his direction. If he's like minus
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: one by the time this fight starts plus like he's
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: got all the round one equity as well, I think
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: he could be close to forty owned on this card. Uh,
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: and a lot of people are just looking to fade
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: q Laba after round one. Q Laba just kind of
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: starts to fade mentally and physically. But almost all of
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: Ursuline's wins our first round knockouts as well. I think
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: first round is gonna be a banger. Either one of
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: these guys could get a knockout. But I just didn't
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: see anything special about Ursuline other than him throwing bombs
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: like he's got heavy hands.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Uh, he's got heavy kicks.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: As well, But if he doesn't knock out c Laba, Like,
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: if this fight goes to a decision, I've seen a
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: lot of people say, like, after round one, give me Ersline,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: but you gotta pay a little bit of juice Q
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: on money Line decision only if you want the q
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: Laba side.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: It's basically a pick them. This fight is going to
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: go to a decision. Yeah, awesome. Uh And I think
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: ku Laba.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Is actually a little bit more alive because he's the
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: one that's more likely to wrestle. In my opinion, I
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: don't think Ersline has anything.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Off his back for cut Laba.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: So if he doesn't get a first round knockout over
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: ku Laba, I kind of like q Laba to be
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: the one not only to win the fight, but to
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: have a real upside in the decision. He could land
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: seven eight takedowns in fifteen minutes, where Ursuline's not gonna
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: do that. Ersline's gonna try and knock this guy out,
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: and if it doesn't happen, I don't know that he
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: has a fallback, you know, wrestling upside. I didn't watch
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: a whole lot of his fights. It kind of just
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: looked all the same to me, looks like, yeah, it's
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: going on. I mean, he didn't look bad, but the
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: line kind of tells you everything you need to see.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: In my opinion, if this guy was really hyped up,
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: he would be a bigger favorite than pick him.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Damn near What is he like?
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: Minus one twenty five something like that, So yeah, give
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: me the proven vet.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know how proven q Laba is, but he's
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: faced a lot of competition. He can wrestle.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: He has big time power in round one as well,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: So gim me q Lab in this one. I will
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: be overweight to him, underweight to Ursuline. But I do
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: want this fight in almost every lineup I build, like
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: over eighty percent of my lineups.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Probably yeah, ideally I'd be overweight on both these guys
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: if I can, but ownership's gonna be there. It's at
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: what point, like if both guys you tell me they
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: are thirty percent on, I probably have more ursuline because
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: of the money line, But first of all, I don't
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: even feel confident with that because qute Lava is all
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: the wrestling upside. Like you said, the decision win ersuline,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: and a decision might not get there. Like you could
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: tell me it just both guys slowed down as it went.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: A striking match a Johnny Walker Santos is really boring
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: fight type thing, whereas cut a Laba could have seven takedowns,
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: like you said in the decision, win control and beat
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: them up kind of like he did Devin Clark. But Ursuline,
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: it's more likely to be thirty seven percent on qute
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Lava twenty nine and at that ownership give me the
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: ownership discount on cut Lava right there as well. So
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: if I'm playing ersline, I'm not like forcing myself to
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: at least leave four hundred. But I do think that's
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: kind of a good idea, being able to upgrade from
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: qut Lava whereus cut Lava. I'd define zero out my
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: Qutalava teams because maybe some people do leave or go
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: down to ersline a little bit. I don't know. That
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: didn't make too much sense. I guess fourteen fights, I
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: don't worry about that little stuff. Pivots one, B one
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: salary stuff. I'd worry about it, but not nearly as
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: much as twelve fight cards, and especially eleven and ten.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it roll. The next fight on the card.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Six fights left again, fourteen fights don't really get any
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: more than that nowadays. In the mment in the UFC streets,
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Matt for Vola, far As Zm eighty two hundred for Vola,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: eight k for Zum another dog or another cheaper price
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: fighter who was the dog in Zum the favorite now
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty two for Vola plus one twelve minus
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: won twenty five for this fight to finish ZM plus
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: one eighty five inside the distance for Vola plus two eighty.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, can we say the same thing pretty much
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: in one aspect is the last fight we just talked
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: about for Vola the dog, just like cute A Laba,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: But both of those guys are the guys that have
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: wrestling upside Erslin's the striker in the matchup, far As
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Zm's the clear striker in the matchup. So another one
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: where I want to look at ownership is right in
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: the mid tier. It's favored to finish Price right by
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: the Quete Lava fight, which is clearly better. So I
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: think ownership will be in check to some extent. But yeah,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, if Zm's ten percent high, your own like
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: you could easily tell yourself why for Vola's optimal because
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: right there, two point five to nine takedowns per fifteen minutes.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: He has eight plus takedown upside if he wants to
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: use it, I'll throw it to you on that. Do
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: you think for Vola tries to wrestle in this fight.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: I think it'd be dumb if he didn't.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I think he should. I think he will,
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: but he's he's got heavier hands. I think if there's
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: a knockout in the first round, it's for Vola knocking
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: him out. But Zim does have really good striking defense,
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: so I don't know that for Vola, I mean, he
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: probably loses if it goes to a decision. But if
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: for Vola did win a decision that mostly stayed on
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: the feet, I don't think he would score a whole lot.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: I think it would be a lot of Zim dancing
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: around the cage trying to avoid contact. So for Vola
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: should can, and probably will wrestle, and that does give
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: him a high ceiling in this one. And if Zim
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: is worried about the takedowns, I think that kind of
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: helps for Vola's knockout upside as well. Maybe it could
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: leave his chin open a little bit with his hands down,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: kind of expecting takedowns. So for Forravola, live for a knockout,
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: which should score well, live for a wrestling based decision,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: which should score well.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Also.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: Zim is more live in a decision in my opinion,
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: But eight K. I don't think he's even hitting ten
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: x eight k in a decision. I think he needs
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: to knock out for Vola, and he's not really a
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: knockout type of fighter. He's really technical. Uh he's he's
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: really good on the feet. It's just that I don't
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: think he's gonna be throwing a whole lot of bombs.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: I don't even think he's going to be really trying
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: to knock out for Vola. I think he's gonna try
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: and point fight his way to a win in this one.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: And now that he's favored, ownership probably will come up
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: a little bit. I don't think he'll be like two owned.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: But I'm gonna get it away from Zem. I don't
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: really want much exposure at all to him. Uh maybe
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: maybe I fade him little risk you got balls having
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: like or so on the ZM side, But then I
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: want to get closer to like thirty five for Vola.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the thing on the n ZM is the plus
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: one eighty five inside the distance props nasty and I
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: think if for Vola Camp to have success taking him
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: down at Lea's holding him down, I think the light
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: kicks for ZM are gonna be so money and that's
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: really going to force for Vola to fight a different
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: game plan. Again. I'm the calfkick guy that I mean,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: I drool over that stuff, but I really think that'll
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: limit for Vola's movement and then I think zmpt t
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: off on him after that, maybe get a finish if
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: he does get the job done there for Vola, Yeah,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: my preferred play, I think though I picked it against BSD,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: how do I not go back to him as a
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: dog in a lot easier matchup is my thought process there.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I like for Vola, but the line movement
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: scary going against him, and I am worried about the
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: light kicks, no doubt about that. Let's keep it moving.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the car at another big favorite. Second
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: highest priced Morgan Charier taking on Gabriel Miranda minus seven
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: hundred is Charier plus five hundred is Miranda minus two
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: fifty for this fight to finish Charier minus one ninety
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Miranda plus six fifty. So Charlie Relay has got to
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: be one of the lower owned guys in the upper tier.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: I do think Klein will probably be higher owned. Tell
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: me if you think I'm wrong. I definitely think Si
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: will be. I don't know, man, I really don't. I
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: think this fight stays on the feed for Charier because
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Miranda's sixteen of his seventeen wins by sub He wants
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: to get the fight to the mat. Why Charier would
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: do anything but strike feels dumb and his round one
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: prop though, I will say pretty good at plus one fifty,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna cap him at plus one fifty, but
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: that leaves him out forty percent, and I think he's
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: gonna come in a lot lower own than forty percent.
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: So I've gone back and forth. I'm taking him underweight.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: I prefer sigh. I think I prefer clining a bit
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: in a vacuum, but ownership dictates everything at the end
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: of the day, and if he's lower owned than all
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: done by a significant amount. I don't know, man, that
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: we're on one prop, maybe I got to get a
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: little bit, so I'm gonna play some, but how much
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: talk to me? In this one, I.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Think he'll be decently owned.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: I think he'll be close to Klein ownership wise, maybe
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: around thirty. A little higher than thirty is where I'm
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: seeing it, really because of the Miranda side, like Miranda's
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: first round sub or bus. Really, in any matchup, if
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Miranda wins his fight, he's on the optimal lineup. So
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: I definitely want Miranda in my player pool because of
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: his upside. If he wins, he's scoring over ninety points.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: But after round one it's kind of worthless. And I
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: think Cherier is gonna have a big striking edge in
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: this one, a big power edge in this one, and
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: after round one, I think he can land takedowns if
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: he wants all night long and rack up takedowns. But
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: I think he gets a finish in round two. If
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: it makes it out of the first, he could finish
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: in the first round two, But if it makes it
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: out of round one, I think he's getting a second
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: or third round finish at some point, whether it be
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: a submission or a knockout. I think knockouts more likely.
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: But if you're gonna like gas out in a fight
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: like if you're gonna be the loser in a fight,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: and you know you're about to lose, like you want
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: to give up your neck rather than get knocked out,
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: you wouldn't shock me to see Miranda get submitted later
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: in the fight. I like both sides of this one.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: I prefer Cher Charier because I'm picking him to win.
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna get the t KO at some point. Uh,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: and I probably do like him a little bit more
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: than Klein. I'm not sure I'll be close on those two,
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: but this is the fight that I just want to
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: target pretty heavily. I want to be overweight to Miranda
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: just for his upside. I don't feel good about him
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: winning at all. It's just that if he wins, he's
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: gonna score well, and he shouldn't be too highly onned,
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: Like how's he gonna get over fifteen like ten to
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent ownership, especially on a fourteen fight card. So
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: that's where I want to be, is like fifteen percent,
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: maybe even get up to twenty percent on the Miranda side,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: but then I want.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: To double that on the other on the Morgan side.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: I just think he's gonna dominate after round one, and
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: he could finish in that first round too, like Miranda
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: could start to give up after the first two minutes,
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: and then we get a four minute and thirty second
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: first round finish from Morgan and that's gonna score well
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: if that happens. So I want to be heavy on
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: him minus one ninety inside the distance. It's pretty damn solid.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: So I like him a lot. I think that the
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: field will like him a decent amount as well.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have really too much more to that.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be playing some inside the distance props. Good.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: We'll be keeping an eye on your ownership. If I
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: had to pick a perfred Side and Miranda and the
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: twenty eight hundred savings, just because mainly those twenty eight
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars savings, I think he'll be low owned. And
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: when he does win, it usually scores well because his
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: grappling style first, So get a little little height advantage
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: three inches right there, sixty years older. Also, I love
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: looking at the stone man. Stone's so good for so
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: many sports. Had addition in the NFL targets per game
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: snap shares, seeing one stop shop to take down significant strikes,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: reach advantage all in one screen and you get the
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: ownership when it's filled in what they actually weigh in
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: AT's so so good. Shout out Djen the Editor and
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: the team. Four fights left Brian Battle Kevin Jews eighty
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: five hundred Battle seventy seven hundred is jew sy ju
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: set ju sy sounds cooler to me, So I'm gonna
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: roll with that. Minus one sixty four battle plus one
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: forty four jew say, plus one sixty for this fight
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: to finish Battle plus two fifty inside the distance juw say,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: plus four to seventy five. Okay, My question to you,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: so this fight pretty bad in terms of props right
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: in the mid tier plus one sixty to finish, and
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: then you look at the other fights minus six hundred
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty five which you just talked about. If
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: you go to the bar as al To Moronto fight
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: is poorly inside the distance as well, but at least
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: the dog is the favorite, which had some appeal. Battle
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: jew say, takedowns. What I'm looking at one point one two,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: one point five to one. Do either try and implement
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: a Wrestlings game plan? If so, who do you think
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: there's success to be had in that? Because if it's
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: just this striking match favor to go fifteen minutes. I
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: think this fight bus and I don't want much of
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: it for all those reasons. I'll just get my breakdown
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: on the way right away. I guess my preferred play
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: is Jews because of the eight hundred. If it is
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: a striking match, I do think the value could favor
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: him close fight, I think you could get the NodD
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: eight hundred savings. Maybe eighty two is enough for seventy
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: hundred seventy seven. I know eighty two is not enough
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: for eighty five, but if you think there's takedowns on
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: either side, but especially Battle side, maybe I'll bomp him
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit because I don't love Battle much as him.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: Now, yeah, I love this fight. I think it's gonna
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: be an awesome fight. But yeah, I do think that
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: if Battle wins, he's got a decent chance of just
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: not making the optimal lineup because there could be a
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: lot of people just scoring more than him. It'll also
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: be tough for him to score more than ten x
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: that eighty five hundred dollars price tag, especially if he's
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: not looking to implement a whole lot of wrestling. And
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: I would say that the striking I don't know about
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: the strike. I think striking could go either way. I
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: liked you said striking, especially on the strikes per minute there.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: That looks great. He's got Lake kicks as well.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: So I do expect his volume to be better. But
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: Battle looked so damn good in his last fight.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: I'm at volume because Battle's got to It looks he
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: might have the death touch man when he lands, like
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: they his opponents feel that.
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say if there's a knockout, it's Battle
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: getting the knocko. Yeah, But I think that ju Set's
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: probably the better or more likely wrestler of the two,
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: but it could go either way.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Wrestling wise.
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: I think either one of them could land takedowns throughout
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: the fight. I just expect a really close fight in
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: this one, and it's gonna be a lot easier for
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: Juicet to pay off his price tag, and I think
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: it should be closer to a pick him fight in
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: my opinion too, So I'm on the juice Set side.
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: I'll be overweight to him, and I think Battle like
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: he's pretty popular, so I think the ownership will be
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: there on them, so I'm guessing I'll be underweight.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: But if he's not going to be owned.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: You don't think so, then that is like twenty.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: I think like twenty because you look at yeah eighty five,
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: because plus two fifty inside of this and solid his
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: money line at minus one sixty six isn't great and
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: like everyone's gonna want to jam the Quto Lava fight
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: for Voel fight offers you more money, it's more likely
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: to finish. I just think that plus one sixty inside
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: of this prop kind of scares away from the favorite
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: in that fight, which isn't too big of one. So
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking about twenty and plus two fifty inside the
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: distance isn't bad.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like that.
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: I was thinking I would be around twenty myself, so
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: I was hoping he'd be closer to like fifteen or so.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Maybe, Yeah, Barres. The thing is, I think like Battles
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: Bars is eighty four. Battle's definitely going to be way
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: higher than Barres. So I think that's when you get
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: the bars at like thirteen percent twelve battle like the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: twenty one is twenty two, So still definitely in check
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: on this card.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, bro, I'll be north of thirty percent on the
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: juicette side, He's my second favorite underdog on the card.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: I love it. Next fight on the car three left,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: Joey Anderson Brito William go Mi's minus two eighty two
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: Brito plus two forty two is the hometown guy and
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: go Me's Brito plus one fifteen to finish go Mes
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: plus five sixty five. And this fight itself is minus
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: one twenty five inside the disc since I mean, I
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: just don't know how you can get to go me
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: is whose favorite thing to do is counter strike and
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: run around in a circle. As you can see, two
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: point six to two significant strikes landed per minute, one
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: point oh six tight downs. I don't think there's takedown
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: upside in this one. Brito the much more physically strong fighter,
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: as you see gomes four inches in height, one inch
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: in reach, grown ass man, weight room, muscle all on
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: the Brito side. Power all on the Brito side. But
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: if he doesn't get a finish in this fight, he's
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: probably not going to score. He's not favored to finish.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: It is plus one ten. You don't like this fight
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: too much, as you see with that two star rating,
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: so talk about why you don't like it.
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: I don't like it because of the Gome side, he's
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: just solo volume and he's so hard to hit. He's
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: got a seventy five percent striking defense, which is crazy,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: but that's what makes me like Brito less. Like, if
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: Brito's not getting an early knockout, I think he could
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: land a few takedowns throughout the fight. But while this
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: fight is on the feet, I just don't see Brito
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: being able to land a whole lot. Gomy's just gonna
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: be trying to avoid contact and that's gonna take away
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: from the scoring potential on the Brito side.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: So we need to knock out or we need him.
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: To wrestle a lot for him to pay off a
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: ninety two hundred dollars salary. I would rather just get
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: up to those other three guys we've been talking about,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: Morgan or c or Si whatever you want to call
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: his name, or Klein, Like, let me find a way
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: to get that extra money. That's what I'd be looking
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: to do. I just don't want a whole lot of Brito.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: But when Brito wins, he usually.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Does score well.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: I think he is live for a first round knockout,
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: so I'll get a little bit of him. But I'm
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: guessing I'll be underweight to the field on him, and
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: then yeah, I don't really want any Gomes either. I
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: think he's a little bit more live than Vegas thinks
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: he is here, but I think he's live for like
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: a fifty point win.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: That's just not gonna cut it either.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: So yeah, like you said, I'm low on the fight,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: I'll probably x out Gomes, but Brito might be like
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: a Zeum to me. Maybe I'll get ten percent, possibly twenty.
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: I like him a little bit more than Zeum because
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: he has higher upside in my opinion, especially with wrestling,
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: But I just think Gomes is gonna take away more
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: points than we want them to.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I agree with that. The thing with Brito,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: four of the side wins have scored over one hundred,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: and like you can go Climb, take Cline out, go Brito.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: It doesn't feel great, but that four hundred right there
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: can easily make the difference. And being a solo ship
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: er compared to client, that could be split eight nine ways.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm torn too. Like A I forty five
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: percent Brito, I'm gonna make sure to lower that. If
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: I thirty five percent, probably good with that. A notorious
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: goods start or score has takedown, upside has power, but
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: just really going against a nutlow matchup in William Go
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: meets who likes to slow fights down, talk about the
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: opposite of a nut Low matchup. Man, I think this
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: comain event. Two top ten middleweights right here are gonna
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: be a lot of fun. Naser being Imma off the hometown.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I take it on Brendon Allen on a seven fight
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: win street. Imovov minus two ten Alan plus one ad
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty for this fight to finish. Imavap plus
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: one forty five Alan plus four fifteen looks like you're
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: on the same side as me. But man, this line
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: just feels wrong. I don't really get it. Like Alan
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: can strike, Yes, Imovov is the better striker. What happens
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: if Allen gets a takedown and takes his back a
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: minute in is I don't think he's gonna get out
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: of a body triangle is Imovov. I think it's Allen's world,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: like he did for against Moonees. I just don't understand.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: How often do you get the better grappler slash wrestler
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: buy a lot? Is this price of a dog? And
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: he's not completely lost in the striking match man right,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: and Allen's good. Imovov's good too, so Allen's an easy
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: easy play for me. Imovov I'm kind of torn the
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: reason two like him solid inside the distance prop around
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: plus one fifty, the better strikeout striker, so he has
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: a knockout upside. And he's one hundred less than BSD,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: who will be the most popular on the slate, so
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: you can do interesting things. You can go bsd Imavov
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: as your two highest price fighters, leave more money on
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: the table, stuff like that. But I'm picking Brendan Allen
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: to win. So do I want to pay sixteen hundred more?
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: I will in some lineups right now. I have him
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: underweight though, so talk to me in this one.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on the Allen side. I think his line
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: could be like ten percent too low. I do think
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: IV is the better striker, the more dangerous striker, for sure.
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: I think Allen can keep it close on the feet
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: and close enough to where he can land one takedown,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: control the fight for one minute and then win that round.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: Just steal the round completely with that takedown, or he
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: can get the early takedown like you mentioned, keep the
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: back for.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: The rest of the round.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: And clearly win the round, or he can submit Imvov
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: in any round and it's only three rounds. So for
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: Imovov to pay off an an eighty nine dollars salary
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: in three rounds kind of think he needs a knockout
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: and I just don't really want to pay that price.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: So I will be underweight to Imovov for sure, and
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: he will get his ownership because the name is there,
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: he's got he's a title contender. But the Allen side,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: if Alan wins, he's getting more than ten x a
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: seventy three hundred dollars price tag, and he has one
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: hundred point upside. So he is my favorite underdog on
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: the card. He's my only bet on the card so
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: far as well. I love that plus one eighty. I
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: might even throw a little bit more if it's gonna
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: stay at plus one eighty. Uh yeah, I think alan
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: Is just has a much better chance of getting ten x.
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: He's even got a better chance of hitting one hundred
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: points in my opinion. Uh but the line should be
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: a lot closer to pick him, and I always love
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: taking a plus one eighty when I think it should
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: be close to a pick them fight.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: So give me Alan.
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: I will have a ton of Allen and maybe I'll
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: get a little bit of Imovov as a hedge. But
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: I just don't love getting like a ten percent hedge
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: when the field's got thirty percent. So uh, maybe all
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: Ximovov out To be honest with you, I don't know.
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: It depends on how many lineups I make, but if
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: I'm making like five lineups, I'm probably just all in
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: on Allen.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: I like it. I probably would be like three Allen
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: no Imovov two fades in case Ivovov wins a decision
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: or something like that, but I like it. I'm on
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: the Allen side with you. I'm gonna have a sum
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: em evolved in case he does find the chain of
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: strikings levels above and he keeps it on the feed.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: But yeah, all right, it's main event time. Hopefully hell
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: out of those dogs in the barround background.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: I mean they're just barking for Brendan Allen.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Let's go, all right, Main event time. Appreciate every single
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: one hanging out. I love the timing on That makes
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: me feel even better. Like Bud subscribe but helps us
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: out a time. Give us a comment down below. Who
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: is your favorite dog of the week and is it
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: this one In the main event is money money Kano
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: gonna have an upset over b SD BSD Money Moykano
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: nine k seventy two hundred. Big favorite is BSD at
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: minus two seventy five Moykano plus two thirty five on
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: the way back minus six hundred for this fight to
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: finish BSD minus two hundred Wakano plus two eighty five.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Twenty teams are less. I'm going to make a rule
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: to be all in. Do I think you have to No? Do?
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's crazy if you don't. No My reasoning
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: fourteen fights. I want to make my path a little
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: more narrow. I already have four or five fades as
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: long as they're not optimal, and I jamm this fight.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: If all of those outcomes happen, I have a lot
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: better chance to ship myself. Yeah, and that's twenty teams
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: or less one point fifty. I'm not making that rule.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: But BSC's just such a fun fighter. Five point seven
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: significant strikes per minute, four point seven to six takedowns, NonStop,
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: four pressure takedowns volume. He gassed last fight, he did
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: slow down and got knocked out. MOI Kano, can he
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: do that to them. I don't know, but Mrcano's plus
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: two eighty five inside the distance as a very good grappler.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: I think if Bicano wins, the scores great for the price.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of BSD wins are one ten
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: plus regardless of what round it's in, all in on it.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: I like BSD, but man, if you're telling me BSD
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: sixty percent, Mcano's twenty seven percent, and again that's probably extreme.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: I think Mokano would be the side there, but being
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: overweight on both or jamming both, or making a rule
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: one of them in every lineup seventy percent BSD thirty
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Moyicano if I said the right ownership, I'm overweight on both.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: So that's my thoughts there. I'll plan on being something
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: like that. How do you see it going down?
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah? I love this fight.
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: I'm probably I have a hard time seeing me make
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: a lineup without this one, So I'm cool with that
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: rule as well. Just go one hundred percent on it.
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: If there's an ipoke, no contest, just not gonna win
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: any money on this car because I want all of it.
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: And I think seventy BSD thirty percent of Mui Kano's
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: pretty solid.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I like that number.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think BSD is so damn good, Like
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: he's just a better wrestler. He's got so much power
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: on the feed. He strikes at a high pace. He
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: could wrestle at a high pace. The only thing you
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: don't really want to do is just get into a
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: rolling match with Moui Kano because Movii Kano is probably
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: the more dangerous grappler. But Bsd's never been submitted himself,
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: so I wouldn't hate seeing that, to be honest with you. Uh,
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: but Mui Kano has a suspect chin. BSD has big
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: time power. I do think that the TKO is the
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: most likely path to victory in this fight. That's what
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: I'm picking to happen. But yeah, I think we're gonna
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: get a big score from either one of them. If
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: Muikano wins, I would expect it to be a submission
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: at some point, and probably more likely late.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: I love Muikano's striking.
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: I think if this was just a striking match at range,
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: he could point fight his way to victory. But bsd's
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: just gonna get on the inside, probably bull him up
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: against the cage, and the more he's on the inside,
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: the more of a chance of that knockout he has.
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: So I don't think it's a really great stylistic matchup
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: for Moui Kano to be able to point fight his
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: way on the feet. He should be going out there
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: looking for takedowns himself, and he could submit BSD just
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: because he's so damn good on the ground. But I
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: don't think he can really dictate where the fight takes place.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: So give me st deny to get a win, probably
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: inside the distance, probably in the first two or three rounds,
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: and I think he scores over one hundred and ten points.
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: But either way, I want to be all in on
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: this one. It'll be like sixty to eighty percent BSD
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: and then the rest on movie Kano.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: For me, I love it. We're similar to a lot
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: on this car. That makes me feel really really good,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: especially fourteen fights. Again fourteen as long as they all
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: weigh in, good to go. As you will see in
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: the stone. If anything changes, we will take everybody in
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: the discord, all projections, owners, slate plan, everything as always
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: will be up tomorrow afternoon, probably sometime noon the eastern
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: start time in Paris, Frand, so make sure to get
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: those lineups in Friday night or Saturday morning. Let's make
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: somebody this feet Big Marley a little second half sweat
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: in the showdown streets, little football Sunday, college football Saturday. Mma,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: any final words for the people before we get on
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: out of here.
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: Nice noon start for me on the East Coast, so
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: I mean not really East Coast. I'm more Midwest, but yeah.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: It's coast East time zone. Yeah, so that's all that matters.
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: I love that start time. I'll be hitting the gym early,
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: hopefully sweating little past noon. Hopefully that first fight doesn't
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: just kill me right away, especially if I'm high on
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: Ioki or Oki. But I think it's a great card.
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: I really hope we keep all fourteen fights. Good luck
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: to you title, good luck to everybody listening.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: Let's ship it, ship it indeed.
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: Good luck to you, Big Marley. Good luck everybody out
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: therepreciate every single one of you tune in and like always,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: good luck. Let's ship it for Big Marley. I'm titled
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: tal