Latest / Stuff You Should Know / The Stuff You Should Know Doin’ Science Playlist: How Chaos Theory Changed the Universe
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Hey, everybody.
- 0:02Speaker 2: Chuck here and welcome to our sciencey playlist. Super excited
- 0:05Speaker 2: about this one, and I'm going to kick it off
- 0:07Speaker 2: everybody with this episode on how chaos theory changed the universe.
- 0:14Speaker 3: Welcome to Stuff you Should Know from HowStuffWorks dot Com.
- 0:23Speaker 4: Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm Josh Clark with
- 0:27Speaker 4: Charles W. Chuck Bryant, and there's Jerry over there. So
- 0:30Speaker 4: this is Stuff you should Know, the podcast about chaos theory. Like,
- 0:36Speaker 4: have you ever seen Event Horizon?
- 0:39Speaker 1: I did not bad?
- 0:41Speaker 4: Great movie?
- 0:42Speaker 1: Are you crazy? Do you think it was great?
- 0:43Speaker 4: Oh? It was so imaginative.
- 0:45Speaker 1: I thought it was okay.
- 0:46Speaker 4: It was like a LOVECRAFTI and thing in outer space. Yeah,
- 0:50Speaker 4: I loved it.
- 0:51Speaker 3: It was all right.
- 0:52Speaker 4: I love crafted it.
- 0:53Speaker 3: Yeah, I liked it.
- 0:56Speaker 4: That's what I think of when I think of chaos.
- 0:58Speaker 4: You know, there's that one part where they kind of
- 1:00Speaker 4: give you like a glimpse behind, like the dimension that
- 1:03Speaker 4: this action is taking place in, to see the chaos underneath.
- 1:07Speaker 1: And I should check that out again.
- 1:09Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 1:10Speaker 2: I think about Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum as the
- 1:17Speaker 2: creep doctor Malcolm explaining chaos in the little auto driving.
- 1:25Speaker 1: Suv or whatever that was.
- 1:27Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I was calling the script, the auto
- 1:29Speaker 4: driving suv scene.
- 1:30Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know what, he actually rewatched that scene
- 1:33Speaker 2: and it confirmed two things. One is that he actually
- 1:37Speaker 2: did a pretty decent job for a Hollywood movie of
- 1:40Speaker 2: a very rudimentary explanation of chaos.
- 1:43Speaker 4: And you watched it for this.
- 1:45Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, just that scene. And then it also confirmed
- 1:48Speaker 2: of what a creep that character was. Yeah, if you
- 1:51Speaker 2: watch that scene, he's like, you know, he was all
- 1:54Speaker 2: gross and flirty with her right in front of her
- 1:56Speaker 2: ex but there's this you know, he's talking to her.
- 1:59Speaker 2: I didn't even know notice this at first. He like
- 2:02Speaker 2: he just like touches her hair out of nowhere for
- 2:04Speaker 2: no reason. Really, He's just talking to her and he
- 2:06Speaker 2: just like grabs her hair and touches it.
- 2:08Speaker 1: Hu And I'm like, what a creep.
- 2:10Speaker 4: I know, if you look closely, you can see the
- 2:11Speaker 4: hormones emerging through his chest hair.
- 2:14Speaker 1: Yeah, it's groady, And I love Jeff Goldblum. It's not
- 2:16Speaker 1: a reflection on him.
- 2:19Speaker 4: He was basically doing Jeff Goldbloom.
- 2:21Speaker 1: Well that's what he Yeah, sure he's Jeff Goldbloom, but
- 2:23Speaker 1: I don't.
- 2:23Speaker 2: Think that's how in the manner in which he speaks.
- 2:26Speaker 2: But I don't think he's a creep, do you.
- 2:30Speaker 4: Wow, I've got nothing against Jeff gold Okay, I think
- 2:33Speaker 4: he's a I think he's doing Jeff Goldblum.
- 2:36Speaker 2: It was also a sign of the times, like if
- 2:38Speaker 2: that movie were made today, doctor.
- 2:41Speaker 4: What was her name in the movie, at least Satler,
- 2:43Speaker 4: I think.
- 2:43Speaker 2: Yeah, doctor Satler would be like, it's very inappropriate to
- 2:46Speaker 2: stroke my hair, dude.
- 2:48Speaker 4: Yeah, like, don't touch me, right.
- 2:51Speaker 1: But this was the nineties or yeah, nineties. Free Wheeling
- 2:55Speaker 1: was eight, No, it was nineties.
- 2:56Speaker 4: It was the early mid nineties, I think, yeah, ninety
- 2:58Speaker 4: twee ninety four. The book came out in nineteen ninety
- 3:01Speaker 4: and in the book Ian Malcolm, who's a Chaotician.
- 3:06Speaker 1: Yeah, a cre chaotian, right he.
- 3:10Speaker 4: He goes into even more depth about chaos there. But
- 3:13Speaker 4: that was I mean, that was the first time I
- 3:15Speaker 4: ever heard of chaos theory was from Jurassic Part Yeah,
- 3:17Speaker 4: me too, probably, and it really it was really misleading.
- 3:22Speaker 4: I think the entire term chaos is very misleading as
- 3:26Speaker 4: far as the general public goes as from what I
- 3:30Speaker 4: researched in this for this article.
- 3:32Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean you hear the word chaos as
- 3:35Speaker 2: an English speaker and you think frenetic and crazy.
- 3:39Speaker 4: Out of control.
- 3:40Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's not what it means in terms of
- 3:43Speaker 1: science like this, right.
- 3:44Speaker 4: What it means, I guess we can say up front
- 3:47Speaker 4: is basically the idea that complex systems do not behave
- 3:53Speaker 4: in very neat ways that we can easily grasp, understand,
- 3:57Speaker 4: or measure.
- 3:59Speaker 2: Right, and not even simple systems don't. Sometimes it doesn't
- 4:04Speaker 2: always have to be complex. But I want to give
- 4:06Speaker 2: a shout out in addition to our own article to
- 4:10Speaker 2: when you know, when it comes to stuff like this,
- 4:12Speaker 2: the brain breaking stuff.
- 4:14Speaker 4: For me, man, this was a brain breaker.
- 4:16Speaker 2: You know. I always go to like blank blank for
- 4:19Speaker 2: kids because it always helps.
- 4:21Speaker 4: If there's a dinosaur mascot on the page, it's a
- 4:24Speaker 4: sure thing we can understand it.
- 4:26Speaker 2: But the best explanation for all this stuff that I
- 4:29Speaker 2: found on the internet was from a website called a
- 4:33Speaker 2: barm Aba Rim Publications, which turns out to be a
- 4:38Speaker 2: website about biblical patterns and sandwiched in the middle, there
- 4:43Speaker 2: is a really great, easy to understand series of pages
- 4:48Speaker 2: on chaos.
- 4:48Speaker 3: They're nice, So.
- 4:49Speaker 2: I was like, man, I get it now. I mean
- 4:51Speaker 2: in a rudimentary way.
- 4:52Speaker 4: Right, Well, yeah, yeah, I think even a lot of
- 4:58Speaker 4: people who deal with that display chaotic behavior, which I
- 5:03Speaker 4: guess is to say basically all systems, eventually, under the
- 5:05Speaker 4: right conditions, Yeah, don't necessarily understand chaos.
- 5:10Speaker 2: Yeah, And they defined a complex system as specifically. It
- 5:12Speaker 2: doesn't mean just like, oh it's complex, I mean it is, right,
- 5:17Speaker 2: but specifically they define it in a way that helped
- 5:20Speaker 2: me understand it's a system that has so much motion,
- 5:24Speaker 2: so many elements that are in.
- 5:25Speaker 5: Motion, moving parts.
- 5:26Speaker 2: Yeah, that it takes like a computer to calculate all
- 5:30Speaker 2: the possibilities of like what that could look like five
- 5:33Speaker 2: minutes from now, ten years from now. So before computers
- 5:37Speaker 2: came around, before the quantum mechanical revolution, it was it
- 5:43Speaker 2: was a lot more basic.
- 5:44Speaker 1: It was like what comes up must come down, stuff
- 5:47Speaker 1: like that.
- 5:48Speaker 4: Let's talk about that, Chuckers, because when you're talking about
- 5:51Speaker 4: chaos theory, it helps to understand how it revolutionized the
- 5:55Speaker 4: universe by getting a clear picture of how we understood
- 5:59Speaker 4: the uni versus leading up to the discovery of chaos. Right, So,
- 6:04Speaker 4: prior to the the scientific revolution, everybody was like, oh,
- 6:10Speaker 4: well it's God, the Earth is at the center of
- 6:13Speaker 4: the universe and God is spinning everything around like a top. Right, Yeah,
- 6:16Speaker 4: it was all a theistic explanation. Then scientific revolution happens
- 6:20Speaker 4: and people start applying things like math and making like
- 6:24Speaker 4: mathematical discoveries and and figuring out that there are there's order.
- 6:31Speaker 4: They're finding order in patterns and predictability to the universe
- 6:36Speaker 4: if you can apply mathematics to it.
- 6:39Speaker 2: Yes, specifically, if you can apply mathematics to the starting.
- 6:43Speaker 4: Point, right, right, So if you can, if you can
- 6:47Speaker 4: figure out how a system works mathematically speaking, right, you
- 6:50Speaker 4: can go in and plug in whatever coordinates you want
- 6:54Speaker 4: to and watch it go. You can predict what the
- 6:57Speaker 4: outcome is going to be. And what this is that
- 6:59Speaker 4: it's base don what at the time was a totally
- 7:02Speaker 4: revolutionary idea by Initially, I think Descartes was the first
- 7:09Speaker 4: one to kind of say cause and effect is a
- 7:11Speaker 4: pretty big part of our universe, right.
- 7:13Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 7:14Speaker 2: It was sort of like where this is sixteen hundred's
- 7:16Speaker 2: where early science met philosophy, Right, they kind of complimented
- 7:21Speaker 2: one another as far as something that's we're talking about determinism.
- 7:25Speaker 4: Right, So that was the kind of the seeds of
- 7:28Speaker 4: determinism was the scientific revolution, and like you said, where
- 7:31Speaker 4: philosophy and science came together in the form of Descartes.
- 7:34Speaker 3: Right.
- 7:34Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 7:35Speaker 4: And then Newton came along and we did a whole
- 7:37Speaker 4: episode on him.
- 7:38Speaker 1: Yeah, January of this year.
- 7:40Speaker 4: That was a good one.
- 7:41Speaker 1: It was really good.
- 7:42Speaker 4: Like I think you said in that episode that there's
- 7:45Speaker 4: possibly no scientists that's changed the world more than Newton has.
- 7:48Speaker 4: Maybe he's got.
- 7:50Speaker 2: Legs people shouted out others an email, but I'll just
- 7:54Speaker 2: say he's at the near the top for sure with
- 7:56Speaker 2: some other people.
- 7:57Speaker 4: The Cream. Yeah, so Newton came along and knew and said.
- 8:00Speaker 1: That was his name, Isaac the Kream Newton.
- 8:02Speaker 4: Right. I think anytime he dunked to be like cream. Yeah,
- 8:06Speaker 4: you just got creamed.
- 8:07Speaker 1: Oh I thought he was a boxer. He's a basketball player.
- 8:10Speaker 4: He was much more well known as a boxer, but
- 8:13Speaker 4: he definitely could dunk as a as a B baller.
- 8:16Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 8:17Speaker 4: So, man, that threw me off a.
- 8:20Speaker 5: Little bit, that's right.
- 8:21Speaker 1: The Cream.
- 8:22Speaker 4: Yeah, the Cream comes along and he basically says, watch this, dude,
- 8:27Speaker 4: does this cause and effect thing you're talking about? I
- 8:29Speaker 4: can express it in quantifiable terms. And he comes up
- 8:33Speaker 4: with all of these great laws and basically sets the
- 8:36Speaker 4: stage the foundation for science for the next three centuries
- 8:40Speaker 4: or so.
- 8:41Speaker 2: Yeah, these these laws that were so rock solid and
- 8:45Speaker 2: powerful that scientists kind of got ahead of themselves a
- 8:49Speaker 2: little and said, we're done, like done with Newton's laws.
- 8:52Speaker 2: We can predict we can predict everything if we have
- 8:56Speaker 2: a good enough beginning accurate value to plug into his equations,
- 9:02Speaker 2: and they weren't. I think there was a little hubris
- 9:04Speaker 2: and a little just excitement about like, will we figured
- 9:08Speaker 2: it all out right.
- 9:09Speaker 4: That you could take Newton's laws and if you had
- 9:13Speaker 4: accurate enough measurements you could predict what the outcome would
- 9:18Speaker 4: be of that system that you plug those measurements into
- 9:21Speaker 4: using these formula.
- 9:22Speaker 2: And at the time, a lot of this was like planetary, like, well,
- 9:26Speaker 2: we know that these planets are here and they're moving
- 9:29Speaker 2: and they're orbiting. So if we know these things, we
- 9:31Speaker 2: can plug it into an equation and we can figure
- 9:34Speaker 2: out what it's going to be like in a hundred
- 9:35Speaker 2: years exactly.
- 9:36Speaker 4: And they figured out and the basis of determinism is
- 9:41Speaker 4: what we just said, that if you have accurate measurements,
- 9:45Speaker 4: you can take those measurements and use them to predict
- 9:48Speaker 4: how a system is going to change over time using
- 9:51Speaker 4: differential equations. Right, Yeah, so this is what Newton comes
- 9:55Speaker 4: along and figures out that you can describe the universe
- 9:57Speaker 4: in these mathematical terms using differential equations. And like you said,
- 10:03Speaker 4: there was a tremendous amount of hubris, and well, I
- 10:07Speaker 4: think you said there were some hubris. I think there
- 10:09Speaker 4: was a tremendous amount of hubris where science basically said,
- 10:12Speaker 4: we've mastered the universe, We've uncovered the blueprint of the universe,
- 10:16Speaker 4: and now we understand everything. It's just a matter now
- 10:20Speaker 4: of getting our scientific measurements more and more and more exact. Yeah,
- 10:24Speaker 4: because again, the hallmark of determinism is that if you
- 10:27Speaker 4: have exact measurements, you can predict an outcome accurately, like
- 10:31Speaker 4: the pool queue example or the pool table example. Right.
- 10:35Speaker 2: Right, So if you've got a pool table, let's say
- 10:38Speaker 2: you're playing some nine ball, right, so you have that
- 10:41Speaker 2: beautiful little diamond. Yeah, set up, you got your cueball,
- 10:44Speaker 2: you put that que ball, and you crack it with
- 10:47Speaker 2: the queue. And if you are super accurate with your
- 10:51Speaker 2: initial measurements, you should be able to mathematically plot out
- 10:54Speaker 2: via angles where the balls will end up.
- 10:57Speaker 4: Right exactly, Like you can say, this is what the
- 10:59Speaker 4: table will look like after the break, if you know
- 11:02Speaker 4: the force, the angle, all those little.
- 11:04Speaker 2: Variable temperature, if there's wind in the room, sure, like
- 11:07Speaker 2: the felt on the table, like everything. The more specific
- 11:11Speaker 2: you are, the more accurate your end result will be.
- 11:13Speaker 5: Right.
- 11:13Speaker 4: And then one of the other hallmarks of determinism is
- 11:16Speaker 4: that if you take those exact same initial conditions and
- 11:20Speaker 4: do them again, the table, the pool table will look
- 11:23Speaker 4: exactly the same after the break.
- 11:24Speaker 2: Yeah, which is pretty much impossible for like a human
- 11:27Speaker 2: to do with their hands.
- 11:29Speaker 4: Sure, but the idea at the time of science was
- 11:32Speaker 4: that if you could build a perfect machine, sure that
- 11:35Speaker 4: could recreate these conditions, it will happen the same way
- 11:38Speaker 4: every time, right.
- 11:39Speaker 2: Yeah, And this, I mean this led to they had hubris,
- 11:42Speaker 2: but you could understand it when like literally in eighteen
- 11:46Speaker 2: forty six, two people predicted Neptune would exist.
- 11:52Speaker 5: Yeah, within months of that would exist.
- 11:54Speaker 1: But does exist?
- 11:55Speaker 5: Right?
- 11:55Speaker 2: And this is not by looking up in the sky
- 11:57Speaker 2: like they did it with math, right, and they were right. Yeah,
- 12:00Speaker 2: So imagine in eighteen forty six when that happens, they're like, yeah,
- 12:05Speaker 2: we kind of we've got the math down, so we're
- 12:07Speaker 2: pretty much all knowing well.
- 12:08Speaker 4: Plus also, for the most part, these not just with Neptune,
- 12:13Speaker 4: they were finding that this stuff really panned out. It
- 12:17Speaker 4: held true for everything from you know, the investigation into
- 12:21Speaker 4: electricity to new chemical reactions and understanding those, and it
- 12:27Speaker 4: laid the scientific revolution, laid the basis for the industrial
- 12:31Speaker 4: revolution and just the change that came out of the
- 12:34Speaker 4: world like that. It definitely it is understandable how science
- 12:38Speaker 4: kind of was like we got it all figured out.
- 12:40Speaker 2: Well, and like you said, they even Galileo was smart
- 12:46Speaker 2: enough to know there's uncertainty in these measurements, like the
- 12:52Speaker 2: precision is key. So they spent what does the article say,
- 12:56Speaker 2: a lot of the much of the nineteenth and twentieth
- 12:58Speaker 2: century just trying to build better instrumentation to get more
- 13:02Speaker 2: and more smaller and smaller and more precise measurements.
- 13:06Speaker 4: Right, That was like basically the goal of it, right.
- 13:08Speaker 2: Yeah, which was the right direction, and that's like exactly
- 13:10Speaker 2: what they should have been doing.
- 13:11Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 13:13Speaker 4: The problem is they, like you said, Galileo knew that
- 13:16Speaker 4: there was some sort of there there are gonna be
- 13:19Speaker 4: some flaws and measurement that we just didn't have those
- 13:23Speaker 4: great scientific instruments yet.
- 13:25Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, it's called the uncertainty principle. Okaybi of its accuracy.
- 13:30Speaker 4: Right, But the idea is that if you have a
- 13:34Speaker 4: good enough instruments, you can overcome that, and that the
- 13:38Speaker 4: the more you shrink the error in measuring the initial conditions. Yeah,
- 13:46Speaker 4: the more you're going to shrink the error in the
- 13:49Speaker 4: outcome be proportionate.
- 13:51Speaker 1: Right. They were correct.
- 13:52Speaker 4: The thing is they were also aware but ignoring in
- 13:57Speaker 4: a lot of ways some out standing problems, specifically something
- 14:03Speaker 4: called the N body problem.
- 14:05Speaker 1: Yet, you know what, I'm so excited about this. I
- 14:07Speaker 1: need to take a break.
- 14:08Speaker 4: I think that's a good idea.
- 14:09Speaker 1: I need to go check out my end body in
- 14:13Speaker 1: the bathroom.
- 14:13Speaker 3: Okay, and we'll be back, all.
- 14:33Speaker 4: Right, Chuck, We're back. So there's some there's some issues
- 14:35Speaker 4: right with determinism. There's some some weird problems out there
- 14:40Speaker 4: that are saying like, hey, pay attention to me because
- 14:45Speaker 4: I'm not sure determinism works. Right, And one is the
- 14:49Speaker 4: N body problem.
- 14:50Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 14:51Speaker 2: How this came about was in eighteen eighty five. That
- 14:53Speaker 2: was King Oscar number two of Sweden and Norway.
- 14:59Speaker 1: Yeah, don't want to leave out Norway.
- 15:01Speaker 2: Both he said, you know what, let's offer a prize
- 15:04Speaker 2: to anyone who can prove the stability of the Solar system,
- 15:08Speaker 2: something that has been stable for a long time before that.
- 15:12Speaker 2: And a lot of the most brilliant minds on planet
- 15:15Speaker 2: Earth got together and tried to do this with mathematical proofs,
- 15:20Speaker 2: and no one could do it. And then a dude
- 15:24Speaker 2: name Henri. You got to help me there with that? Oh,
- 15:30Speaker 2: say the whole thing.
- 15:31Speaker 5: Henri pon Care very nice.
- 15:34Speaker 2: He was French, believe it or not, and he was
- 15:36Speaker 2: a mathematician, and he said, you know what, I'm not
- 15:39Speaker 2: going to look at this big picture of all the
- 15:41Speaker 2: planets in the Sun and all their orbits.
- 15:43Speaker 4: You'd have to be a fool to try that.
- 15:45Speaker 2: Sure, he said, I'm going to shrink this down, like
- 15:47Speaker 2: we talked about shrinking that initial value, right, you know,
- 15:52Speaker 2: and that initial condition. He shrunk it down. He said,
- 15:54Speaker 2: I'm going to look at just a couple of bodies
- 15:57Speaker 2: orbiting one another with a common center of gravity, and
- 16:02Speaker 2: I'm going to look at this and this was called
- 16:05Speaker 2: the end body problem.
- 16:06Speaker 4: Yeah, which was smart to do because the more variables
- 16:09Speaker 4: you factor into a nonlinear equation like that, just the
- 16:15Speaker 4: harder it's going to be, so he shrunk it down.
- 16:17Speaker 4: So the n body problem has to do with three
- 16:21Speaker 4: or more celestial bodies orbiting one another. So Plonkarre said,
- 16:25Speaker 4: let's just start with three.
- 16:26Speaker 1: Yeah, smart.
- 16:28Speaker 4: And what he found from doing his equations for this
- 16:31Speaker 4: king Oscar the sequel prize, was that shrinking the initial
- 16:38Speaker 4: conditions measurements or rate of error, right, yeah, did not
- 16:45Speaker 4: really shrink the error in the outcome, which flies in
- 16:50Speaker 4: the face of determinism. What he found was that just
- 16:54Speaker 4: very very minute differences in the initial conditions fed into
- 17:00Speaker 4: a system produced wildly different outcomes. Yeah after a fairly
- 17:05Speaker 4: short time.
- 17:06Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, let me just round off the mass of
- 17:08Speaker 2: this planet at like the eighth decimal point, and you.
- 17:12Speaker 1: Know who cares? Who cares at that point?
- 17:15Speaker 2: I mean just round that one to a two, and
- 17:17Speaker 2: that would throw everything off at a pretty high rate.
- 17:21Speaker 2: And he said, wait a minute, I think this contest
- 17:25Speaker 2: is impossible.
- 17:27Speaker 4: Right, He said, there is no way to prove the
- 17:32Speaker 4: stability of the Solar System because he just uncovered the
- 17:38Speaker 4: idea that it's impossible for us to predict the rate
- 17:44Speaker 4: of change among celestial bodies.
- 17:47Speaker 2: Yeah, it's such a complex system. There are far too
- 17:50Speaker 2: many variables that it's impossible to start with something so
- 17:56Speaker 2: minute to get the equation whatever the that you want.
- 18:00Speaker 5: Right, well, not only that, but the result.
- 18:03Speaker 4: Not only that. And this is what really undermined determinism
- 18:07Speaker 4: was that he figured out that you would have to
- 18:10Speaker 4: have an infinitely precise measurement, which even if you build
- 18:16Speaker 4: a perfect machine that could take the infinitely or a
- 18:20Speaker 4: perfect machine that could take a measurement of like the
- 18:22Speaker 4: the movement of a celestial body around another, it's literally
- 18:29Speaker 4: impossible to get infinite an infinitely precise measurement, which means
- 18:34Speaker 4: that we could never predict out to a certain degree
- 18:38Speaker 4: the movement of these celestial bodies. Like he was saying, like, no,
- 18:42Speaker 4: you can't get you can't build a machine that gets
- 18:46Speaker 4: measurements enough that we can overcome this, Like determinism is wrong,
- 18:51Speaker 4: Like you can't just say we have the understanding to
- 18:55Speaker 4: predict everything. There's a lot of stuff out there that
- 18:59Speaker 4: were not able to predict and he uncovered it trying
- 19:02Speaker 4: to figure out this n body problem.
- 19:03Speaker 2: Yeah, and King Oscar the sequel said you win, Yeah,
- 19:07Speaker 2: bring me another rack of lamb and here's your prize. Yeah,
- 19:11Speaker 2: and he won by proving that it was impossible, which
- 19:13Speaker 2: is pretty interesting.
- 19:14Speaker 4: And they utterly and completely changed not just math, but
- 19:19Speaker 4: like our understanding of the universe and our understanding of
- 19:22Speaker 4: our understanding of the universe, which is even more kind
- 19:25Speaker 4: of earthshaking.
- 19:26Speaker 2: Yeah, he discovered dynamical instability or chaos. And they didn't
- 19:32Speaker 2: have supercomputers at the time, so it would be a
- 19:34Speaker 2: little while, about seventy years at MIT until we could
- 19:40Speaker 2: actually kind of feed these things into machines capable of
- 19:45Speaker 2: plotting these things out in a way that we could see, right,
- 19:48Speaker 2: which was really incredible.
- 19:49Speaker 4: So there was this dude seventy years later named Edward
- 19:56Speaker 4: Lawrence or Lorenz.
- 19:58Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 19:59Speaker 2: Well, first of all, we should set the stage the
- 20:01Speaker 2: reason this guy he was a meteorologist, yeah, and scientists, right,
- 20:05Speaker 2: not that those are not the same thing, right. He's
- 20:08Speaker 2: a scientist who dabbled a meteorology. He was a mathematician, yeah,
- 20:13Speaker 2: but he was really into meteorology because it was there
- 20:16Speaker 2: was a weird juxtaposition at the time where we were
- 20:19Speaker 2: sending people into outer space but we couldn't predict the weather.
- 20:23Speaker 4: Yeah, and it was it was definitely a blot on
- 20:25Speaker 4: the field of meteorology. People were like, do you guys
- 20:28Speaker 4: know what you're doing? Yeah, And meteorologists, you're like, you
- 20:32Speaker 4: have no idea how hard this is? Yeah, Like, yeah,
- 20:35Speaker 4: we can predict it a couple of days out, but
- 20:37Speaker 4: after that, it's just it's totally unpredictable. It drives us mad.
- 20:41Speaker 4: And it wasn't just their their reputations that were at stake,
- 20:46Speaker 4: like people were losing their lives because of it.
- 20:47Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, nineteen sixty two there were two notorious storms,
- 20:51Speaker 2: one on the East coast and one on the west,
- 20:53Speaker 2: the ash Wednesday storm in the East and the big
- 20:55Speaker 2: blow on the West that killed a lot of people,
- 20:58Speaker 2: cost hundreds of millions of dollars and damage, and people
- 21:02Speaker 2: were like, you know, we need to be able to
- 21:03Speaker 2: see these things coming a little more, right, because it's
- 21:05Speaker 2: a problem.
- 21:06Speaker 4: And meteorologists were like, why did you do it?
- 21:08Speaker 5: Then?
- 21:11Speaker 2: So they thought the key was these big supercomputers. Remember
- 21:14Speaker 2: the supercomputers. When they came out the big rooms full
- 21:18Speaker 2: of hardware, it was amazing, and they were finally able
- 21:21Speaker 2: to do like these incredible calculations that we could never
- 21:24Speaker 2: do before.
- 21:25Speaker 4: I know, they were able to like crunch sixty four
- 21:27Speaker 4: bytes a second.
- 21:28Speaker 1: Yeah, we had the abacus and then the supercomputer. There's
- 21:31Speaker 1: nothing in between.
- 21:33Speaker 4: I looked up the computer that Lareen's was working.
- 21:36Speaker 1: Was it the Whopper?
- 21:37Speaker 4: A Royal McBee? What was the Whopper?
- 21:39Speaker 1: War Games?
- 21:40Speaker 4: Was it called the Whopper?
- 21:41Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 21:42Speaker 1: Wopright, I can't believe they called it that.
- 21:46Speaker 4: So the guy just nicknamed it Joshua.
- 21:49Speaker 2: No, Joshua was the h the software falcon was the
- 21:55Speaker 2: old man who designed all this stuff, and his son
- 21:58Speaker 2: was Joshua. And that was the password to get in.
- 22:00Speaker 4: Oh, that was the password. Yeah, I guess I was
- 22:03Speaker 4: too young to understand what a password was.
- 22:05Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, you didn't even there weren't passwords at the time.
- 22:08Speaker 4: No, shouted it at the computer and they're like, okay,
- 22:12Speaker 4: access granted.
- 22:12Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 22:14Speaker 1: Still that movie holds up, does it really? Oh? Totally?
- 22:16Speaker 4: You got to check it out.
- 22:17Speaker 1: Yeah. Still very very fun. Young Ali sheety boy had
- 22:21Speaker 1: a crush on her from that movie.
- 22:22Speaker 4: She was great.
- 22:23Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 22:24Speaker 4: What else was she in recently? Wasn't she in something?
- 22:27Speaker 3: Well?
- 22:27Speaker 2: I mean she kind of went away for a while
- 22:30Speaker 2: and then had her big comeback with that indie movie
- 22:33Speaker 2: High Art, But that was a while ago.
- 22:35Speaker 4: Has she been in anything else? Recently.
- 22:37Speaker 2: Sure, I think I saw something and something recently and
- 22:41Speaker 2: I didn't realize that was her. Oh rightly, she looks familiar.
- 22:44Speaker 2: I was like, oh, that's Ali sheety.
- 22:47Speaker 1: I don't know all right, I could look it up,
- 22:50Speaker 1: but I won't. It doesn't matter anyway. I still crush
- 22:53Speaker 1: on her.
- 22:54Speaker 4: So the the Royal McBee was not quite the whopper.
- 22:58Speaker 4: You could actually sit.
- 22:59Speaker 5: Down the Royal McBee.
- 23:01Speaker 4: That's the name of it.
- 23:02Speaker 1: That sounds like a hamburger too.
- 23:03Speaker 4: It was by the Royal Typewriter Company, and they got
- 23:07Speaker 4: into computers for a second. And this is the kind
- 23:10Speaker 4: of computer that Lawrence was working with, and it was
- 23:14Speaker 4: a huge deal, Like you were saying, Abacus supercomputer. Yeah,
- 23:19Speaker 4: but it was still pretty dumb as far as what
- 23:22Speaker 4: we have today is concerned. But it was enough that
- 23:25Speaker 4: Lawrence was like, Lawrence and his ilk were like, finally
- 23:28Speaker 4: we can start running models and actually predict the weather. Yeah,
- 23:32Speaker 4: he started doing just that.
- 23:34Speaker 2: He did, so he started off with a computational model
- 23:38Speaker 2: of twelve meteorological meteorological I liked how you said it calculations,
- 23:43Speaker 2: which is very basic because they're infinite meteorological calculations. Probably, yeah,
- 23:49Speaker 2: depending to say it wrong again.
- 23:50Speaker 4: No, no, like it sounds like you're about to say it
- 23:53Speaker 4: wrong and then you pull it out at the last second.
- 23:55Speaker 4: Maybe it's really impressive.
- 23:57Speaker 1: But so that's very basic.
- 23:59Speaker 2: But he wanted to start out, you know, with something attainable,
- 24:02Speaker 2: so he narrowed it down to twelve conditions, basically twelve
- 24:05Speaker 2: calculations that had you know, temperature, wind, speed, pressure, stuff
- 24:09Speaker 2: like that, started forecasting weather. And then he said, you know,
- 24:14Speaker 2: it'd be great if you could see this, So I'm
- 24:16Speaker 2: going to spit it into my wonder machine, the McWhopper,
- 24:20Speaker 2: the Royal McBee, and I'm going to get a print
- 24:24Speaker 2: out so you can visualize what this looks like. So
- 24:28Speaker 2: things were going well and he had this print out
- 24:29Speaker 2: and everyone was amazed because these these calculations never seemed
- 24:33Speaker 2: to repeat themselves.
- 24:35Speaker 4: He was making like like like word art. You remember that,
- 24:41Speaker 4: Like that was the first thing anybody did on a computer.
- 24:43Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, it was to make word art like
- 24:45Speaker 4: a butterfly or.
- 24:46Speaker 1: Something, right, you would print out. Yeah, I never could
- 24:49Speaker 1: do that.
- 24:49Speaker 4: I couldn't either.
- 24:50Speaker 2: Like you have to be able to visualize things spatially.
- 24:53Speaker 2: You have to have that right kind of brain.
- 24:55Speaker 4: For that, right or you have to be following a
- 24:57Speaker 4: guide book.
- 24:59Speaker 3: True.
- 25:00Speaker 4: Have you ever seen me? You and everyone? We know?
- 25:03Speaker 1: Yeah? I love that movie.
- 25:04Speaker 4: That's a great movie.
- 25:05Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 25:05Speaker 4: Those little kids in there, they were doing that. Oh
- 25:08Speaker 4: yeah yeah, the forever back and forth poop boy.
- 25:12Speaker 1: I haven't I haven't seen that since it came out.
- 25:13Speaker 1: It's been a while.
- 25:14Speaker 4: Oh you got to see it again?
- 25:15Speaker 1: Yeah, great movie, good movie.
- 25:17Speaker 4: Ali Sheet he's not in it. No, it's a Miranda
- 25:20Speaker 4: in July.
- 25:20Speaker 1: Right, and she like wrote and directed too. Right.
- 25:22Speaker 4: She did a great job. It's like it's one of
- 25:25Speaker 4: those rare movies where like there's just the right amount
- 25:30Speaker 4: of whimsy, because whimsy so easily overpowers everything else and becomes.
- 25:35Speaker 1: Like yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 25:37Speaker 4: This is like the most perfectly balanced amount of like
- 25:40Speaker 4: whimsy you I've ever seen in a movie.
- 25:41Speaker 2: Yeah, there's too much whimsy. I just like terrible Garden State.
- 25:44Speaker 2: I just want to punch it in the face.
- 25:46Speaker 4: Terrible. Although I like Garden State, but I haven't seen
- 25:48Speaker 4: it since.
- 25:49Speaker 5: It came out.
- 25:49Speaker 1: It hasn't aged well. Yeah, it's just when you look
- 25:52Speaker 1: at it now, it's just so cutesy and whimsical.
- 25:55Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's like come on.
- 25:56Speaker 2: Yeah, boy, We're do a lot of movies today.
- 26:01Speaker 4: Oh yeah, well we're stalling.
- 26:03Speaker 2: We haven't even talked about butterfly effect yet, which is coming.
- 26:07Speaker 4: I'm dreading it. That's why I'm stalling, all right.
- 26:10Speaker 1: So where were we?
- 26:11Speaker 2: He was running his calculations, printing out his values so
- 26:16Speaker 2: people could see it, and then he got a little
- 26:19Speaker 2: lazy one day in nineteen sixty one. This output he
- 26:23Speaker 2: noticed was interesting, so he said, you know, I'm going
- 26:26Speaker 2: to repeat this calculation see it again, but I'm going
- 26:30Speaker 2: to to save time. I'm just going to kind of
- 26:32Speaker 2: pick up in the middle, and I'm not going to
- 26:35Speaker 2: input as many numbers, but I'm still using the same values,
- 26:39Speaker 2: just I'm not going out to six decimal points.
- 26:41Speaker 4: So the print out he had went to three decimal points. Yeah,
- 26:45Speaker 4: so he was working from the print out and didn't
- 26:48Speaker 4: take into account that the computer accepted six decimal points.
- 26:51Speaker 4: So he was just putting in three correct and expecting
- 26:53Speaker 4: that the outcome would be the same.
- 26:55Speaker 1: Right, Yes, but the outcome was way different, right, And
- 26:57Speaker 1: he went.
- 26:58Speaker 5: Whoa, whoa what?
- 27:00Speaker 1: Yeah, he's like, what's going on here? It was a
- 27:04Speaker 1: big deal.
- 27:05Speaker 2: I mean, someone would have come up with this eventually,
- 27:06Speaker 2: probably yeah, but I sort of accidentally came upon it.
- 27:09Speaker 4: It's neat that this guy did this because it changed
- 27:12Speaker 4: his career. I think he went from an emphasis on
- 27:15Speaker 4: meteorology to an emphasis on chaos math to stud scientists basically.
- 27:21Speaker 4: So I mean, the guy's got an attractor named after him,
- 27:24Speaker 4: you know what I mean.
- 27:24Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's get to that.
- 27:26Speaker 4: So Lorenz starts looking at this and he's like, wait
- 27:29Speaker 4: a minute, this is this is weird, this is worth investigating,
- 27:33Speaker 4: and like, what was his name, puon Carre. Yeah, he said,
- 27:38Speaker 4: I need fewer variables. So I'm not going to try
- 27:41Speaker 4: to predict weather with these twelve differential equations that you
- 27:46Speaker 4: have to take into account. I'm just going to take
- 27:48Speaker 4: one aspect of weather called the rolling convection current, and
- 27:53Speaker 4: I'm going to see how I can write it down
- 27:56Speaker 4: in formula form. So a rolling convection current, chuck is
- 27:59Speaker 4: where you know, how the wind is created, where air
- 28:04Speaker 4: at the surface is heated and then starts to rise
- 28:08Speaker 4: and suddenly cool air from higher above comes in to
- 28:12Speaker 4: fill that vacuum that's left, and that creates a rolling
- 28:17Speaker 4: or vertically based convection current.
- 28:20Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, you could.
- 28:21Speaker 1: I would describe it as oven.
- 28:24Speaker 4: Oven, boiling water, cup of coffee. Wherever there's a temperature
- 28:29Speaker 4: differential based on a vertical alignment, you're going to have
- 28:33Speaker 4: a rolling convection current.
- 28:35Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, it sounds complex, but he just picked out
- 28:38Speaker 2: one thing, basically one condition, right, and this is the
- 28:41Speaker 2: one he picked out.
- 28:42Speaker 4: But had you seen my hands moving listeners, you would
- 28:45Speaker 4: be like, oh, yeah.
- 28:46Speaker 3: I know.
- 28:47Speaker 1: He made little rolling motions.
- 28:48Speaker 4: So he's like, okay, I can figure this out. So
- 28:52Speaker 4: he comes up with three three formulae that kind of
- 28:56Speaker 4: describe a rolling convection current, and he starts trying to
- 29:00Speaker 4: figure out how to describe this rolling convection current right, correct,
- 29:06Speaker 4: And so, like I said, he got these three formula
- 29:08Speaker 4: which were basically three variables that he calculated over time,
- 29:12Speaker 4: and he plugged him in and he found three variables
- 29:15Speaker 4: that changed over time. And he found that after a
- 29:18Speaker 4: certain point when you graph these things out, and since
- 29:21Speaker 4: they're three, you graph them out on a three dimensional graph.
- 29:25Speaker 4: So X, Y and Z.
- 29:26Speaker 2: Again, he wanted to just be able to visualize this, right,
- 29:29Speaker 2: because it's easier for people to understand.
- 29:30Speaker 4: He was a very visual guy.
- 29:32Speaker 1: Totally.
- 29:32Speaker 4: All of a sudden, it made this crazy graph that
- 29:36Speaker 4: where the line as it progressed forward through time, went
- 29:40Speaker 4: all over the place. It went from this axis to
- 29:42Speaker 4: another axis, to the other axis, and it would spend
- 29:45Speaker 4: some time over here, and then it would suddenly loop
- 29:47Speaker 4: over to the other one. And it followed no rhyme
- 29:50Speaker 4: or reason. It never retraced its path. And it was
- 29:55Speaker 4: describing how a convection current changes over time, right.
- 29:59Speaker 1: Yeah, And Lorenzo.
- 30:01Speaker 4: Is looking at this, he was expecting these three things
- 30:05Speaker 4: to equalize and eventually form a line. Yeah, because that's
- 30:09Speaker 4: what determinism says, things are going to fall into a
- 30:12Speaker 4: certain amount of equilibrium and just even out over time.
- 30:16Speaker 4: That is not what he found. No, and what he
- 30:18Speaker 4: discovered was what point care A discovered, which was that
- 30:23Speaker 4: some systems, even relatively simple systems, exhibit very complex, unpredictable behavior,
- 30:30Speaker 4: which you could call chaos.
- 30:32Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 30:32Speaker 2: And when you say things were going all over like
- 30:35Speaker 2: if you look at the graph, it it's not just
- 30:37Speaker 2: lines going in straight lines bouncing all over the place randomly,
- 30:41Speaker 2: like there was an order to it, but the lines
- 30:44Speaker 2: were not on top of one another. Like let's say
- 30:46Speaker 2: you draw a figure eight with your pencil and then
- 30:49Speaker 2: you continue drawing that figure eight.
- 30:51Speaker 1: It's going to.
- 30:51Speaker 2: Slip outside those curves right every time unless you're a robot.
- 30:56Speaker 1: Sure, And that's what it ended up looking like.
- 30:59Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 30:59Speaker 4: Yeah, never retraced the same path twice. Ever, it had
- 31:04Speaker 4: a lot of really surprising properties, and at the time
- 31:08Speaker 4: it just fell completely outside the understanding of science, right.
- 31:12Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 31:12Speaker 4: Luckily this happened to Lawrence who was curious enough to
- 31:15Speaker 4: be like, what is going on here? And again he
- 31:19Speaker 4: sat down and started to do the math and thinking
- 31:21Speaker 4: about this and especially how it applied to the weather, right, yeah,
- 31:25Speaker 4: and he came up with something very famous.
- 31:28Speaker 2: Yes, the butterfly effect. Yes, A, this thing kind of
- 31:34Speaker 2: looked like butterfly wings a little bit. Yeah, And b
- 31:37Speaker 2: when he went to present his findings, he basically had
- 31:41Speaker 2: the notion He's like, I'm gonna I'm gonna wow these
- 31:44Speaker 2: people in the crowd in nineteen seventy two. It's a
- 31:47Speaker 2: conference that I'm going to and I'm gonna I'm gonna
- 31:50Speaker 2: say something like, you know, the seagull flaps his wings
- 31:53Speaker 2: and it starts a small turbulence that can one that
- 31:55Speaker 2: can affect weather on the other side of the world. Right,
- 31:58Speaker 2: the small little thing will just grow and grow and
- 32:01Speaker 2: snowball and effect things. And he had a colleague was like,
- 32:05Speaker 2: seagull wings, that's nice, and he said, how about this,
- 32:09Speaker 2: And this is the title. They ended up with, predictability
- 32:12Speaker 2: Colon does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil
- 32:16Speaker 2: set off a tornado in Texas? And everyone was like, whoa,
- 32:21Speaker 2: WHOA mine's blown?
- 32:24Speaker 1: Should we take a break? All right, We'll be right back,
- 32:43Speaker 1: all right.
- 32:44Speaker 2: So the Lorens Attractor is that picture that he ended
- 32:51Speaker 2: up with, The Lorens Attractor. And this biblical pattern website
- 32:59Speaker 2: that I found described attractors and strange attractors in a
- 33:03Speaker 2: way that even dumb old me could understand what you got.
- 33:06Speaker 2: So if I may, he says, all right, here's the
- 33:10Speaker 2: cycle of chaos. He said, I actually I don't know
- 33:15Speaker 2: who wrote this. A woman could have been a small child, Noah.
- 33:19Speaker 1: Of undetermined gender. I have no idea the gender neutral narrator,
- 33:25Speaker 1: they said.
- 33:26Speaker 2: He said, right, think about a town that has like
- 33:29Speaker 2: ten thousand people living in it. To make that town work,
- 33:33Speaker 2: you got to have like a gas station, a grocery store,
- 33:36Speaker 2: a library, whatever you need to sustain that town. Okay,
- 33:41Speaker 2: so all these things are built, everyone's happy, you have equilibrium.
- 33:45Speaker 2: He said, So that's great. Then let's say you build
- 33:49Speaker 2: some Someone comes and builds a factory on the outskirts
- 33:52Speaker 2: of that town, and there's going to be ten thousand
- 33:54Speaker 2: more people living there.
- 33:55Speaker 4: Right, and they don't go to church?
- 33:57Speaker 1: Maybe so, uh, did I say church they needed a church?
- 34:01Speaker 4: No? No, okay, I was just assuming this is what's equilibrium.
- 34:05Speaker 2: No, no, no, but you just have more people. So there's
- 34:08Speaker 2: you need another gas station and another grocery store. Let's
- 34:11Speaker 2: say so they build all these things and then you
- 34:14Speaker 2: reach equilibrium. Again, it's maintained because you build all these
- 34:18Speaker 2: other systems.
- 34:19Speaker 3: Up.
- 34:19Speaker 2: I see that equilibrium. It's called an attractor. Okay, So
- 34:24Speaker 2: then he said it said they said.
- 34:30Speaker 5: He capital he the royal.
- 34:33Speaker 2: He said, all right, Now, let's say instead of that
- 34:36Speaker 2: factory being built and you have those original ten thousand,
- 34:39Speaker 2: let's say three thousand. Those people just up and leave
- 34:42Speaker 2: one day, and the grocery store guy says, well, there's
- 34:45Speaker 2: only seven thousand people here. We need eight thousand people
- 34:47Speaker 2: living here to make a profit, so I'm shutting down
- 34:51Speaker 2: this grocery store. Then all of a sudden, you have
- 34:54Speaker 2: demand for groceries. So things go on for a little while,
- 34:57Speaker 2: and someone comes in and say, hey, this town needs
- 34:59Speaker 2: a grocery store. They build a grocery store, they can't sustain,
- 35:03Speaker 2: they shut down. Someone else comes along because the demand,
- 35:06Speaker 2: and it is this search for equilibrium, this dynamic Well,
- 35:12Speaker 2: you reach equililibrium here and there as the store opens.
- 35:15Speaker 4: Periods of stability, periods.
- 35:17Speaker 2: Of stability, and that dynamic equilibrium is called a strange attractor.
- 35:23Speaker 2: So an attractor is the state which the system settles on.
- 35:27Speaker 2: Stranger attractor is the trajectory on which it never settles
- 35:32Speaker 2: down but tries to reach the equilibrium with periods of stability.
- 35:36Speaker 1: Does that make.
- 35:37Speaker 4: Sense that Bible based explanation was dynamite. I understand it
- 35:42Speaker 4: better than I did before, and I understood it okay before.
- 35:46Speaker 4: That's great.
- 35:47Speaker 1: Surely can add yeah, yeah, no, you're gonna add to it. No,
- 35:52Speaker 1: that's it.
- 35:53Speaker 4: No, I mean like it. Yeah. An attractor is where
- 35:56Speaker 4: if you graph something and eventually it reaches equilibrium, it's
- 36:00Speaker 4: a regular attractor. If it never reaches equilibrium and is
- 36:04Speaker 4: constantly trying to and has periods of stability, strange attractor.
- 36:07Speaker 5: I can't.
- 36:07Speaker 1: I can't top that, all right, grocery store, small town.
- 36:10Speaker 5: That was great.
- 36:11Speaker 4: So Lorenz's strange attractor was named a Lorenz attractor named
- 36:16Speaker 4: after him. Big deal.
- 36:17Speaker 1: They weren't using the word chaos yet.
- 36:19Speaker 4: No, but he published that paper about butterfly wings, right, yeah,
- 36:23Speaker 4: the butterfly effect, and it coupled with his picture is
- 36:28Speaker 4: the picture of a strange attractor, which is almost the
- 36:32Speaker 4: aside from fractals, almost the the emblem or the logo
- 36:39Speaker 4: for chaos theory, the Lorens attractor is. It got attention
- 36:43Speaker 4: off the bat. It wasn't like puant Caret's findings where
- 36:46Speaker 4: it got neglected for seventy years. Almost immediately everybody was
- 36:50Speaker 4: talking about this because again, what Lorenzo had uncovered, which
- 36:53Speaker 4: is the same thing that puant care had uncovered, is
- 36:55Speaker 4: that determinism is possibly based on all that the universe
- 37:01Speaker 4: isn't stable, that the universe isn't predictable, and that what
- 37:04Speaker 4: we are seeing as stable and predictable are these little
- 37:08Speaker 4: periods windows of stability that are found in strange attractor graphs.
- 37:13Speaker 4: That that's what we think the order of the universe is,
- 37:16Speaker 4: but that that is actually the abnormal aspect of the universe,
- 37:21Speaker 4: and that instability unpredictability as far as we're concerned is
- 37:25Speaker 4: the actual state of affairs in nature. And I think
- 37:29Speaker 4: as far as we're concerned is a really important point too, Chuck,
- 37:33Speaker 4: because it doesn't mean that nature is unstable chaotic. It
- 37:40Speaker 4: means that our picture of what we understand as order
- 37:44Speaker 4: doesn't jibe with how the universe actually functions. It's just
- 37:49Speaker 4: our understanding of it, and we're just so anthropocentric that
- 37:55Speaker 4: we see it as chaos and disorder and something to
- 37:57Speaker 4: be feared, when really it's just come flexity that we
- 38:01Speaker 4: don't have the capability of predicting. Yeah, after a certain.
- 38:05Speaker 2: Degree, Yeah, I think that makes me feel a little better,
- 38:08Speaker 2: because when you read stuff like this, you start to
- 38:10Speaker 2: feel like, well, the Earth could just throw us all
- 38:13Speaker 2: off of its face at any moment because it starts
- 38:16Speaker 2: spinning so fast that gravity becomes undone.
- 38:19Speaker 1: And I know that's not right.
- 38:20Speaker 4: By the way, I've always loved that kind of science
- 38:22Speaker 4: that shows we don't know anything, like Robert Robert Hume,
- 38:27Speaker 4: who I know, I understand was a philosopher, but he
- 38:28Speaker 4: was a philosopher scientist.
- 38:30Speaker 1: Sure.
- 38:31Speaker 4: His whole jam was like cause and effect is an
- 38:33Speaker 4: illusion that, like we all, it's just an assumption, like
- 38:37Speaker 4: that if you drop a pencil, it will always fall down.
- 38:40Speaker 4: It's an illusion and this is pre gravity understanding gravity.
- 38:45Speaker 4: But he makes a good.
- 38:46Speaker 1: Price gravity when everyone's just floating around.
- 38:48Speaker 4: Yeah, going this pencils got me wacky. Yeah, but the
- 38:52Speaker 4: point was that you know, we are we base a
- 38:55Speaker 4: lot of our assumptions or a lot of stuff that
- 38:59Speaker 4: we take a law are actually based on assumptions that
- 39:02Speaker 4: are made from observations over time, and that we're just
- 39:05Speaker 4: making predictions that cause and effect as an illusion. I
- 39:08Speaker 4: love that guy, and this definitely supports that idea for sure. Sorry,
- 39:15Speaker 4: I'm excited about chaos theory.
- 39:17Speaker 1: Can believe it?
- 39:18Speaker 2: Well, I mean I like that I'm able to understand
- 39:21Speaker 2: it in enough of a rudimentary way that I can
- 39:24Speaker 2: talk about it at a dinner party.
- 39:26Speaker 4: Well, thank your Bible website. Well once you take the
- 39:30Speaker 4: formulas out, Yeah, for people like us, we're like, oh, okay,
- 39:34Speaker 4: we can understand chaos.
- 39:35Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 39:36Speaker 4: Then when somebody says, good, do a differential equation, You're
- 39:38Speaker 4: just like.
- 39:39Speaker 1: What what a different equation? All right?
- 39:43Speaker 2: So earlier I said that chaos had not been used
- 39:46Speaker 2: the word chaos to describe all this junk, right, and
- 39:49Speaker 2: that didn't happen until.
- 39:51Speaker 1: Later on, well actually about ten years, you know, but
- 39:54Speaker 1: it was kind of.
- 39:55Speaker 2: At the same time this other stuff was going on
- 39:57Speaker 2: with Lorenz. Yeah, late sixties, early seventies. There's a guy
- 40:01Speaker 2: named Stephen Smale, Fields metal recipient, so you know, he's
- 40:06Speaker 2: good at math, and he described something that we now
- 40:12Speaker 2: know as the Smale horseshoe. And it goes a little
- 40:16Speaker 2: something like this. So, all right, take a piece of
- 40:22Speaker 2: dough like bread dough, and you smash it out into
- 40:25Speaker 2: a big flat rectangle.
- 40:27Speaker 1: Do So you're looking at that thing and you're like, boy,
- 40:30Speaker 1: I hope this makes some good bread.
- 40:31Speaker 4: This is gonna be so good.
- 40:33Speaker 1: So then you go a little roseberry on it, yeah,
- 40:35Speaker 1: maybe so well sea salt.
- 40:37Speaker 4: Yeah, and then lick it before you bake it so
- 40:40Speaker 4: you know it's yours. No one else can have it.
- 40:44Speaker 2: So you have that flat rectangle of dough, you roll
- 40:47Speaker 2: it up into a tube and then you smash that
- 40:51Speaker 2: down kind of flat, and then you bend that down
- 40:54Speaker 2: to where it eventually looks like a horseshoe. Okay, so
- 40:57Speaker 2: now you take that horseshoe, you take another rectangle dough
- 41:00Speaker 2: and you throw that horseshoe onto that and then you
- 41:04Speaker 2: do the same thing. The smale horseshoe basically says you
- 41:08Speaker 2: cannot predict where the two points of that horseshoe will
- 41:11Speaker 2: end up. Yeah, you can roll it a million times
- 41:15Speaker 2: and it'll end up in a million different places.
- 41:19Speaker 4: Totally random, different places too.
- 41:21Speaker 1: Totally random. You never know.
- 41:23Speaker 2: It's like a box of chocolates. You never know what
- 41:24Speaker 2: you're gonna get.
- 41:26Speaker 1: You have to say it, and that became known.
- 41:28Speaker 4: You have to say it.
- 41:29Speaker 1: Oh what imitate Forrest Gump? Sure, I can't do that.
- 41:32Speaker 4: That's fine.
- 41:32Speaker 1: He's not one. He's not in my repertoire.
- 41:34Speaker 4: That's fine.
- 41:35Speaker 1: Although I did see that again part of it recently.
- 41:38Speaker 4: Does it hold up well?
- 41:40Speaker 2: I mean, take out forty minutes of it and it
- 41:42Speaker 2: would have been a better movie, like all of that.
- 41:45Speaker 1: Coincidence stuff that.
- 41:47Speaker 5: Oh I love that.
- 41:49Speaker 2: And he also did the smile T shirt like it
- 41:52Speaker 2: was just too much, Like he really hammered it too much.
- 41:55Speaker 3: I liked it.
- 41:57Speaker 4: That was the basis of the movie.
- 41:58Speaker 1: I know.
- 41:59Speaker 2: But see it again and I guarantee you, like an
- 42:01Speaker 2: hour and a half into it, you'll be like, I
- 42:03Speaker 2: get it.
- 42:06Speaker 4: You know. It was a good Tom Hanks movie. That
- 42:07Speaker 4: was overlooked A Road to Perdition.
- 42:11Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a good one. Great Sam Mendez.
- 42:14Speaker 4: Oh man, that guy's awesome.
- 42:16Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 42:16Speaker 4: Oh what is he going to do? He might do something.
- 42:19Speaker 2: He did the James Bar he did Skyfall. Yeah, yeah, no,
- 42:22Speaker 2: he's gonna also that last one that wasn't so great.
- 42:24Speaker 4: He's got a potential project coming up and he would
- 42:27Speaker 4: be amazing for it. I don't remember what it was.
- 42:29Speaker 1: Did you see Revolutionary Road?
- 42:31Speaker 5: Yes?
- 42:32Speaker 4: God how it was just like.
- 42:35Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to jump off a bridge?
- 42:36Speaker 4: Yeah? Movie like every five minutes during that movie.
- 42:40Speaker 1: That was hardcore.
- 42:41Speaker 4: It is.
- 42:42Speaker 5: Uh he did that one too, huh.
- 42:43Speaker 2: Yeah, and don't see that if you're like engaged to
- 42:45Speaker 2: be married or thinking about.
- 42:47Speaker 4: It, yeah, or if you're blue already. Yeah I'm yeah.
- 42:50Speaker 4: Just take a really good good mood and be like
- 42:52Speaker 4: I'm sick of being in a good mood. Sit down
- 42:55Speaker 4: and watch Revolutionary Road.
- 42:56Speaker 1: Yeah. Watch Joe versus the Volcano instead.
- 42:58Speaker 4: Great movie. Uh.
- 43:01Speaker 1: Where was I smale? Horseshoe is what that's called?
- 43:04Speaker 2: And that was he was the first person to actually
- 43:08Speaker 2: use the word chaos.
- 43:10Speaker 5: Oh he was, I think so.
- 43:11Speaker 4: No, No, No, York was Tom York's dad.
- 43:14Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, he wasn't the first person York correct.
- 43:16Speaker 4: But SMaL's horseshoe illustrates a really good point.
- 43:19Speaker 1: Chuck, is it Tom York's dad?
- 43:21Speaker 4: No, Okay, no, but they're both British, Sure, Yorky's actually
- 43:26Speaker 4: one's Australian. Nope, they're British. So those two points which
- 43:33Speaker 4: should which started out right by each other, and then
- 43:35Speaker 4: end up in two totally different places.
- 43:37Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 43:37Speaker 4: That applies not just to bread dough, but also too
- 43:40Speaker 4: things like water molecules that are right next to each
- 43:44Speaker 4: other at some point and then a month later they're
- 43:47Speaker 4: in two different oceans, even though you would assume that
- 43:50Speaker 4: they would go through all the same motions and everything.
- 43:53Speaker 5: Oh, sure, but they're not.
- 43:54Speaker 4: There's so many different variables with things like ocean currents
- 43:57Speaker 4: that two water molecules that were one side by side
- 44:00Speaker 4: end up in totally random different places. Yeah, and that's
- 44:04Speaker 4: part of chaos. It's basically chaos personified yea, or chaos
- 44:09Speaker 4: molecule fied.
- 44:12Speaker 1: So we mentioned York.
- 44:13Speaker 2: Where I was going with that was there was an
- 44:16Speaker 2: Australian named Robert May, and he was a population biologist,
- 44:22Speaker 2: so he was using math to model how animal populations
- 44:25Speaker 2: would change over time giving certain starting conditions. So he
- 44:30Speaker 2: started using these equations as differential equations, and he came
- 44:36Speaker 2: up with a formula known as the logistic difference equation
- 44:39Speaker 2: that basically enabled him to predict these animal populations pretty well.
- 44:44Speaker 4: Yeah, and it was working pretty well for a while,
- 44:47Speaker 4: but he noticed something really really weird, right, Yeah, he
- 44:51Speaker 4: had this formula, the logistic difference in equation is the
- 44:55Speaker 4: name of it. Sure, Okay, So we had that formula,
- 44:58Speaker 4: and he figured out that if you took R, which
- 45:02Speaker 4: in this case was the reproductive rate of an animal population, yeah,
- 45:07Speaker 4: and you pushed it past three.
- 45:09Speaker 1: The number three.
- 45:10Speaker 4: So that meant that the average animal in this population
- 45:14Speaker 4: of animals had three offspring in its lifetime or in
- 45:19Speaker 4: a season whatever. If you pushed it past three, all
- 45:22Speaker 4: of a sudden, the number of the population would diverge.
- 45:28Speaker 1: Yeah, if you pushed it equal to three actually, or more.
- 45:31Speaker 4: Right, it would diverge. Yeah, which is weird because a
- 45:34Speaker 4: population of animals can't be two different numbers, you know,
- 45:39Speaker 4: like that herd of antelope is not there's not thirty,
- 45:42Speaker 4: but there's also forty five of them at the same time. Yeah,
- 45:45Speaker 4: that's called a superposition, and that has to do with
- 45:48Speaker 4: quantum states, not herds of antelopes.
- 45:52Speaker 5: Sure, that was kind of weird.
- 45:54Speaker 4: And then he found if you pushed it a little further,
- 45:56Speaker 4: if you made the reproductive rate like three point oh five,
- 46:00Speaker 4: five seven or something like that. I think it was
- 46:03Speaker 4: a different number, but you just tweaked it a little bit, not.
- 46:05Speaker 5: Even to four.
- 46:06Speaker 1: We're talking like, oh yeah, millions.
- 46:08Speaker 4: Of a of a degree. All of a sudden it
- 46:13Speaker 4: would turn into four. So there'd be four different numbers
- 46:16Speaker 4: for that was the animal population, and then we would
- 46:18Speaker 4: turn into sixteen. And then all of a sudden, after
- 46:20Speaker 4: a certain point, it would turn into chaos. The number
- 46:23Speaker 4: would be everything at once, all over the place, just
- 46:25Speaker 4: totally random numbers that it oscillated between.
- 46:29Speaker 2: Yeah, but in all that chaos, there would be periods
- 46:32Speaker 2: of stability.
- 46:33Speaker 4: Right, you push it a little further, and all of
- 46:34Speaker 4: a sudden it would just go to two again. Yeah,
- 46:37Speaker 4: but beyond that, it didn't go back to the original
- 46:39Speaker 4: two numbers. It went to another two. So if you
- 46:41Speaker 4: looked at it on a graph, it went line divided
- 46:45Speaker 4: into two, divided into four eight sixteen chaos two four
- 46:49Speaker 4: sixteen two four eight sixteen chaos all before you even
- 46:53Speaker 4: got to the number four of the reproductive rate.
- 46:57Speaker 2: Yeah, And he was working with mister York because he
- 47:00Speaker 2: was a little confounded. So he was a mathematician buddy
- 47:02Speaker 2: of his, James York from the University of Maryland. So
- 47:06Speaker 2: they worked together on this, and in nineteen seventy five
- 47:09Speaker 2: they co authored a paper called Period three Implies Chaos
- 47:14Speaker 2: and man, finally somebody said the word I kept thinking
- 47:18Speaker 2: it was all these other people.
- 47:20Speaker 4: Yeah, And this paper where they first debuted the name chaos.
- 47:25Speaker 4: They they based it Tom York's dead based it on
- 47:31Speaker 4: Edward Lawrence's paper.
- 47:33Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 47:33Speaker 4: He was like, you know what, I have a feeling
- 47:35Speaker 4: that has something to do with the Lawrens attractor.
- 47:37Speaker 3: So that.
- 47:40Speaker 4: Provided chaos to the world. And it was the basically
- 47:43Speaker 4: the third the third time a scientist had said we
- 47:49Speaker 4: don't understand the universe like we think we do, and
- 47:52Speaker 4: determinism is based on an illusion like don't you get
- 47:56Speaker 4: it of order in a really chaotic universe? And this
- 48:01Speaker 4: established chaos. It took off like a rocket in the
- 48:04Speaker 4: eighties and the nineties. You know, as you know from
- 48:06Speaker 4: Jurassic Park, chaos was everything everybody's like chaos, this is
- 48:10Speaker 4: totally awesome, it's the new frontier of science. And then
- 48:13Speaker 4: it just went It just went away, And a lot
- 48:15Speaker 4: of people said, well, it was a little overhyped, but
- 48:19Speaker 4: I think more than anything, and I think this is
- 48:21Speaker 4: kind of the current understanding of chaos because it didn't
- 48:24Speaker 4: actually go away. It became a deeper and deeper field.
- 48:26Speaker 4: As you'll see, people mistook what chaos meant. It wasn't
- 48:32Speaker 4: the new type of science. It was a new understanding
- 48:38Speaker 4: of the universe. It was saying like, yes, you can
- 48:40Speaker 4: still use Newtonian physics.
- 48:42Speaker 2: Yeah, like don't throw everything out the windows. No, you
- 48:44Speaker 2: can still try and predict weather and still try and
- 48:46Speaker 2: build more accurate instruments and get you know, decent results.
- 48:50Speaker 2: But you can't with absolute perfection predict complex systems like determinism.
- 48:57Speaker 4: The ultimate goal of determinism is false. It can never
- 49:01Speaker 4: be it can never be done because we can't have
- 49:04Speaker 4: an infinitely precise measurement for every variable or any variable. Therefore,
- 49:08Speaker 4: we can't predict these outcomes. Right, So you would expect
- 49:11Speaker 4: science to be like, what's the point, what's.
- 49:13Speaker 5: The point of anything?
- 49:14Speaker 1: No, not science.
- 49:15Speaker 4: Well, some some chaos people have said no, this is
- 49:19Speaker 4: this is great, this is good. We'll take this. We'll
- 49:23Speaker 4: take the universe as it is, rather than trying to
- 49:26Speaker 4: force it into our pretty little equations and saying like,
- 49:30Speaker 4: if the ocean temperature is this at this time of
- 49:33Speaker 4: year and the fish population is this at that time,
- 49:36Speaker 4: then this is how many offspring this fish stop, this
- 49:40Speaker 4: fish population is going to have. Say okay, here is
- 49:45Speaker 4: the fish population, Here is the ocean temperature, here are
- 49:48Speaker 4: all these other variables. Let's feed it into a model
- 49:51Speaker 4: and see what happens. Not this is going to happen.
- 49:55Speaker 4: What happens instead, And this is kind of the understanding
- 49:59Speaker 4: of chaos there. Now, it's taking raw data, as much
- 50:03Speaker 4: data as you can possibly get your hands on, as
- 50:05Speaker 4: precise data as you could possibly get your hands on,
- 50:08Speaker 4: and just feeding it into a model and seeing what
- 50:10Speaker 4: patterns emerge. Rather than making assumptions, it's saying, what's the outcome?
- 50:15Speaker 4: What comes out of this model?
- 50:17Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's why, like when you see things like
- 50:20Speaker 2: you know, fifty years ago they predicted this animal be
- 50:22Speaker 2: its extinct and it's not. Well, it's because the variations
- 50:27Speaker 2: were too complex, right, They tried to predict And that's
- 50:31Speaker 2: why if you look at a ten day forecast, you, sir,
- 50:36Speaker 2: are a fool, Right, it's true, Well, ten days from
- 50:40Speaker 2: now it says it's going to rain in the afternoon.
- 50:42Speaker 1: Come on.
- 50:43Speaker 4: But if you take if you took enough variables for
- 50:46Speaker 4: weather for like a city, and fed it into a
- 50:50Speaker 4: model of the weather for that city, you could find
- 50:55Speaker 4: you could find a time when it was similar to
- 50:59Speaker 4: what it is now. Yeah, and you could conceivably make
- 51:01Speaker 4: some assumptions based on that. You can say, well, actually
- 51:05Speaker 4: we can, we can predict a little further out than
- 51:07Speaker 4: we think. But it's it's based on this theory, this
- 51:12Speaker 4: understanding of chaos, of unpredictability, of not just not forcing
- 51:17Speaker 4: nature into our formulas, but putting data into a model
- 51:21Speaker 4: and seeing what comes out of it.
- 51:23Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 51:23Speaker 2: And then at the end of that you learn, like
- 51:25Speaker 2: when that animal is not extinct like you thought it
- 51:28Speaker 2: would be, you go back and look at the original thing,
- 51:30Speaker 2: and you have a more accurate picture of how the
- 51:34Speaker 2: data could have been off slightly this one value, and
- 51:38Speaker 2: then you have more buffalo than you think.
- 51:41Speaker 4: Yeah, sure you got buffaloed by chaos.
- 51:45Speaker 1: And we're not even getting into fractals. That's a whole
- 51:47Speaker 1: other thing.
- 51:48Speaker 2: And we did a whole other podcast in June twenty
- 51:51Speaker 2: twelve about fractals and the mandal while mandel Brett mendel Brett, Mandelbrot, Yeah,
- 51:58Speaker 2: and go listen to that one and hear me clinging
- 52:01Speaker 2: to the edge of a clift.
- 52:02Speaker 4: Yet, man, we should end this. But first I want
- 52:07Speaker 4: to say, there is a really interesting article it's pretty
- 52:10Speaker 4: understandable on Quanta magazine about a guy named George Sugihara
- 52:18Speaker 4: and he is a chaos theory dude who's got a
- 52:22Speaker 4: whole lab and is applying it to real life. So
- 52:26Speaker 4: it's a really good picture of chaos theory and action.
- 52:31Speaker 4: Go check it out. Okay, if you want to know
- 52:35Speaker 4: more about chaos theory, I hope your brain's not broken.
- 52:39Speaker 1: Yeah, go take some LSD and look at fractals. Don't
- 52:42Speaker 1: do that.
- 52:43Speaker 4: You can type those words into how stuff works in
- 52:47Speaker 4: the search bar any of those fractals, LSD chaos. It'll
- 52:51Speaker 4: bring up some good stuff. And since I said good stuff,
- 52:53Speaker 4: it's time for a listener mail.
- 52:57Speaker 1: I'm gonna call this rare shout out get requests all
- 53:01Speaker 1: the time.
- 53:01Speaker 4: And bet I know each one really Yeah dude and
- 53:05Speaker 4: his girlfriend. Yeah, no, so far so good.
- 53:09Speaker 2: Hey, guys, just wanted to say I think you're doing
- 53:10Speaker 2: a wonderful job with the show to this date. My
- 53:13Speaker 2: first time listening was during my first deployment.
- 53:17Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, yeah, when.
- 53:18Speaker 2: I listened to your list on famous and influential films,
- 53:22Speaker 2: I was hooked after that. Since I came back stateside,
- 53:25Speaker 2: have spent many hours driving to and fro to see
- 53:28Speaker 2: my girlfriend to my barracks, and I can happily say
- 53:31Speaker 2: that they've been made all the more enjoyable by listening
- 53:34Speaker 2: to you guys.
- 53:35Speaker 4: That's good.
- 53:36Speaker 2: Even my girlfriend Rachel has warmed up to you dudes,
- 53:39Speaker 2: which was not a pleasant I'm sorry, which was a
- 53:41Speaker 2: pleasant shock to me. She has told me repeatedly that
- 53:44Speaker 2: she cannot listen to audiobooks because quote, hearing people talk
- 53:48Speaker 2: on the radio.
- 53:49Speaker 1: Gives me a headache end quote.
- 53:51Speaker 2: Anyway, I hope you guys continue to make awesome podcasts
- 53:54Speaker 2: as I'm headed out on my next deployment. And if
- 53:56Speaker 2: you could give a shout out to Rachel, I'm sure
- 53:58Speaker 2: it would make her feel a little better that I
- 54:00Speaker 2: got the pleasant people on the podcast to reaffirm how
- 54:03Speaker 2: much I love her. That is, John, Rachel, hang in there, John,
- 54:08Speaker 2: be safe and uh, thanks for listening.
- 54:12Speaker 4: Yeah, man, thank you, that is a great email. I
- 54:14Speaker 4: love that one.
- 54:14Speaker 1: Glad we don't give you a headache. Rachel, Yeah for real,
- 54:16Speaker 1: she listens to this one, She's.
- 54:17Speaker 4: Like, Okay, oh yeah, everybody's gonna get a headache from
- 54:20Speaker 4: this one. Like I came to hate the sound of
- 54:22Speaker 4: my own voice from this one.
- 54:24Speaker 1: Ah, you'll be right.
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- 54:49Speaker 5: For more on this and thousands of other topics, visit
- 54:52Speaker 5: HowStuffWorks dot com.