Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets NFL Week 12

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Best Bets NFL Week 12 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bed threety
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our Week twelve Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: chiefs Content Officer of the Action Network. Oh boy, oh boy.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We are coming off of a one and four week
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: in our contest, the worst week we've had all season. Also,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: by the way, the hardest week in the contest all
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: season across the board. We reviewed our record extensively in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: our Sunday Night recap episode, but since we did have
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a contest playing the Broncos on Sunday Night Football for posterity,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: we lost that. We also won the Eagles, which we
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: were excited about last night. Too bad we didn't put
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: in the contest. The bad news, as I said, it
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: was our worst week of the year. The good news
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: news after Thanksgiving we can drop our two worst weeks
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of the season so far. That will definitely be one
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: of them. A lot of the lines we liked have
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: already moved since Sunday, which is why you need to
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: listen to the Sunday Show if you want to get
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: the best of the number. Today is a very special episode. Reminder,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: we will not have a Thursday show because in theory,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: you should all be spending time with your families on Thursday,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: even though we know you will be shouting at your family, well,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: you were sweating games. So for today's show, we will
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: deliver the whole Enchilada Foxhall, Simon says exac decision, Big Balls,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Bet of the Week, plus a Thanksgiving Day version, very
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: special holiday edition of Shark Calls. Also reminder me and
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Simon special live episode of The Favorites Podcast December third,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey. Free to
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: get in, free drinks, free chance to bet with me
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: and Simon. You must RSVP. It's the Sunday night episode
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: will go on live. You must RSVP check out the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: link in the description page here, both on the show's
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: YouTube page and in the podcast episode page or eventwright
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: dot com. Check it there. Search the Favorites Podcast for
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: more on info and to our SVP. We will discuss
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the games we like right now for the contest, will
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: lock those in as usual Sunday morning. Two big reminders
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: regarding the contest. Number one, the Thanksgiving and Black Friday
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: games not in the contest. Once again, the entire leaderboard
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: getting shake up after this week when everyone's two lowest
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: scores get dropped and the leaderboard recalibrates. Now, let's bring
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: in my co host, May BFF, my companion, Michael Padre
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Simon the season starts anew.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving to you.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: And happy Thanksgiving to you. This is you know, there's
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: some things in life that just fit. And I think
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: when you talk about football, thanksgiving, traditional rivalries and being there,
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: that's a good fit.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: He's just very optimistic. Yeah, tough week last week, excited
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: about this week that hopefully bounce back. Things obviously didn't
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: bounce our way last week, and you know we're already
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: off to a good start this week. We probably should
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: have lost that Eagles bet, but lucky for us, the
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Chiefs didn't really think they needed wide receivers. And who
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: would have thought, Chad, you probably need one good, reliable
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: ride receiver another team could have got Hopkins. Doesn't make
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: sense why they didn't go get Hopkins, just a guy
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: you can rely on third downs. Clearly Mahomes is missing it.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it doesn't matter how great you are, right like,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: you need guys who can catch the ball. We saw
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: it last year with Aaron Rodgers in that Green Bay offense.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: They didn't have any pass catchers. He suffered. This year,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: we're really seeing to Mahomes. It's crazy, like the Eagles
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: should have lost that game. But what is it? Three
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: or four weeks now, I think people have posted that
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Chiefs have only scored a touchdown or less in the
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: second half. Yep, that's crazy to think with Mahomes run offense.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: So yeah, as an Eagles fan, feeling pretty good, Chad. Great,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: crazy to have be a fan of a team that's
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: again the number one seed outright in the NFL right now.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: So yeah, as a better felt good. Didn't feel good
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: at half? I probably you're probably the same as me.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: It's just like, wow, we're down ten at half. But yeah, nice.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Nice to end the week with another prime time under
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: as well, Chad. I think we're up to what is it,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: evan twenty eight, twenty eight, twenty or maybe it's twenty seven. Yeah,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: twenty seven primetime unders have hit this year, so it's crazy.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Can't believe it. Last week we lost on Thursday, and
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: then we got it Sunday night and Monday night, so
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: it went to and one last week Primetime under is
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: gon gonna keep riding the trend? Chad, I mean until
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: until they lose three in a row to overs. I'm
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: just gonna keep riding this trend.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Sim and I am nothing if not irrationally and unrealistically
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead. As a reminder,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
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  Speaker 1: A Bet three six five must be twenty one or
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: it on YouTube already, don't forget to give us a like.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Here's the update
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: for week eleven Contest Office Week Yet in the contest,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: like I said, only thirty eight entries finished five and zero.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Congrats to Razor the Guru. Enjoy the cash, my friend,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: you came in first. This week's Producer's Couple ward goes
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to Ken Flemia for finishing dead fucking alaskoing on and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: five and mist in the tiebreaker at three hundred and
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: eighteen yards. Ken, email producer Matt Mitchell at podcasts at
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize, thanks
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: for playing. Week twelve is now live the tiebreaker total
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: passing yards on Monday Night Football. All right, we're gonna
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: start with Thanksgiving Day, normally Thursday, as we let our
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: director of research, Evan Abrams end the show, but he
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: has so many jaw dropping trends regarding Thanksgiving that we
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: wanted him to kick it off since those going to
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: be the games we get into right away. Evan Abrams,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: take it away, brother.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you.
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: God. I try to keep my information pretty simple, you know,
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: for the fans, make it easy to understand. There's nothing
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: simpler than Thanksgiving.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: So hear me out.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: If the Lions, Cowboys, and forty nine Ers all closees
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: seven point favorites, it will be seven point favorites or higher.
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: It will be the first Thanksgiving slate with three touchdown
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: favorites or higher. Ever since two thousand and six we've
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: had three games or more. It's never happened, and before
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: that two thousand and one would be the last time
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: both games were sus minus seven are higher. So pretty crazy.
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: We are in that zone now that leads us to
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: trend number one touchdown favorites or higher, twenty one and
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: two straight up and seventeen six against the spread on
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: Thanksgiving since two thousand and six. Basically, it's just chalk
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: in the wildcard era, so that since nineteen ninety they
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: are twenty seven and four straight up, twenty three and
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: eight against the spread, one step further favorites of over
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: ten points eight and oh against his spread on Thanksgiving
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: since two thousand and five, eleven and oh against the
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: spread in the last thirty years. Now, now let's talk
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: about the road for a second. That's what I'm saying, Chad.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: There's really nothing more simpler than this. Last twenty years,
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: favorites of seven or more on the road on Thanksgiving
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: nine and oh straight up eight and one against the spread.
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: The only Ats loss was the Bills last year, road
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: favorites on Thanksgiving twenty four and one straight up nineteen
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: six against the spread since two thousand and four. Now,
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: finally the Cowboys, they've lost four straight games against the
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: spread on Thanksgiving. They are one one and eleven against
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: his spread in their last twelve games on Thanksgiving dating
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: back to twenty eleven, and Dak Prescott one in five
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: against his spread on Thanksgiving. That one in five mark
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: worst of any quarterbacks in nineteen ninety. That's Thanksgiving. It's favorites.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: They usually cover, doesn't matter where, even on the road,
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: except for the Cowboys.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is going to be interesting because that's
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest numbers. And Simon and I are
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: going to have to dig in because it's a game
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: that the more research I did forget about Thanksgiving, the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: more it felt like there was one side that we
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: should be taking. All Right, we got a lot to
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: get through. We want to get through every game. Like
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I said, we got to do big Balls, we gotta
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: do Foxhole, we got to do Simon says, we got
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: to do exec Decision. Simon Normally we would do sharp calls.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: We thought about maybe doing a sharp calls just on
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games, but you've basically had twenty four hours to
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: connect with the brethren since we last podcasted anything worth
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: discussing it all from a sharp call point of view.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. I'm man.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just fly through it. I won't break it
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: down too much for a break it down anyway. But
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Evan nailed it, Like Thanksgiving is very easy. A lot
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: of guys just go by the trends, that just go
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: by the book, and it's pretty simple. You fade the cowboys,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: you bet the favorites, and that's just what we'll guys
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: have done. I mean, ever since I've joined the show chat,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: it's what we've done. You can go back and listen
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: to all our Thanksgiving shows if you want. We're gonna
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: do the exact same thing basically this week. But yeah,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: professional Betters the one where I didn't really dive much
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: into it. Maybe that's when I need to take a
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: harder look at was that at Seahawks game. I just
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: I thought Gina was gonna play, so I was just
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: gonna be on the forty nine ers. It's looking like
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Gina is gonna play, and the numbers come down. It
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: was at seven now it's down to six and a half.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: So it's definitely a game we need to break down. Yeah,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: games we're gonna be on. The Pros love This will
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: not be shocking to people Houston, Texans. The Pros love them.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: I love them this week. To think they're plus one
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: and a half against the Jaguars at home, that's one
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: that a lot of guys talked about. One you already
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: talked about on Sunday Chad Vegas Raiders. I think it
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: was nine and a half. Ten Now it's down to
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: nine against the Chiefs. You know, shocking to me because
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I'm on the other side of this one. The Pros
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: love the Bills. I like the Eagles. Talked to a
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: lot of guys they really liked the Bills at three
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: and a half. I said, I bet you do. I
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: bet you liked that three and a half. How nice
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: of them to give you that hook on that Bills team.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: So that's when we'll have to break down another another
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: two that the pros love. Arizona Cardinals dog at home
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: against the Rams and the Cleveland Browns catching two and
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: a half in Denver. So yeah, some early bets here.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: But like Chad said, I'm in Hawaii, so this is
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: just Monday. Like I didn't even talk to I have
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: a couple of messages this morning, but nothing like, hey,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: six figures coming in on this side, you need to
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: hit this side. Nothing, no crazy big bets. I've seen
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: a couple, you know, five figure bets, but nothing too
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: crazy yet. Bet there will be big bets. I'll try
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: to tweet it out. But Thanksgiving games, there's gonna be
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: big bets. It's a standalone. The books will take whatever
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: kind of money you want to get down. If you
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: have an angle, they're gonna take your money. This is
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: like Chad just said. Or I don't know, Chad, maybe
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: it was my metro. I'll lose my mind. But this
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: is a holiday weekend for betters. Like a lot of
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: us don't have wives and kids right like Thanksgiving. Yes,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: you guys are all spending your time with your family.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: We're working this is a big business day for a
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: lot of us, and the fact they've added the Friday,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: you know, I thought there'd be a lot more action
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: on the Jets from the pros. I haven't heard anything, Chad.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna let that number run. What's it
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: up to ten? Now, I'll check what it's on bet
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: three six five, But it's been running. So yeah, people
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: I know want an opinion on that game from the pros.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: I really haven't heard one. People. I think they're just
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: like me. They're gonna wait for that number to get up.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Like I don't want to be on the Jets and
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be fun. But that's that's a big
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: number for a divisional games. So yeah, Like for sharp calls,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Evan kind of nailed it, like Thanksgivings are pretty boring
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: by the trends kind of day, like you just you
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: bet the trends and you hope it hits all right.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Well, let's get into it. First game up right, I mean,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: that's the one to talk about right away. It's green
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Bay at Detroit.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I think our first instinct, even when we talked about
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: it on Sunday was green Bay, and then we started
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: talking about it a little more and a little deeper.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: We don't expect the Lions to have two bad games
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: in a row. And if you look at the Packers
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: like they had key drops that the Chargers had key
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: drops from Keenan Allen on scoring opportunities, one on third
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: down that would have been a first down at the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: goal line and then one touchdown. The defense was truly
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: terrible for the Chargers. The Lions are a better coach team.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Now we've got the stats about liking the favorites, and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: it makes sense, right it's a short week, you're getting
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: the better team. They're a big favorite for a reason.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: There's less sort of schematically teams have to figure out
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: when they're the good team versus the bad team that
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: needs to find the tricker you to keep it close.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing that scares me, and it's a stat
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: we've loved all season, is playing these road dogs in
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: the division. If you think about road dogs, road favorites,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: home dogs, home favorites, the best then diagram of this
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: is the road dog, which covers it a fifty four
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: percent clip so at the past twenty years. So that's
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: sort of the only thing. But I don't think it's
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: enough for me to say I want to go in
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: on Green Bay right now.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: No, I like the lines, and I'll break it down
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: way more because I think we're doing a game by
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: game and convinced me for our Yeah yeah, Thanksgiving special.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if you really want an in depth breakdown
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: of each of these games, we'll give it to you.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: But can already tell you right now my Thanksgiving slate,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: we gonna run through these three games. It's gonna be
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be Washington, gonna be Seattle most likely. The
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: lines so pretty boring by me. I was. I wanted
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: to get there in the forty nine, especially all the
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: stats Evan gave. But like Chad just said, these it's
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: tough these divisional games to not take the dog for
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: me and Thanksgiving Chad's dry, Like I gotta break away
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: from that. I just can't take all the dogs here.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: So I am forcing this lins pick a little bit.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: But I think Chad just talked about it's like, do
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: we really think Golf's can have a back to back
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: three turnover game? No, It's that was just such an outlier,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: such a bad game that they were due for. And
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure Evan said before that game, he'd been
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: an eleven to zero ATS run against the North, so
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: the Bears broke that. Wouldn't be shocked to see him
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: start another another run here, right, It's like the green
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: Bay coming high off a win, like you said, a
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: short week now on the road. The Lions know that
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: stolen there, right. I don't think Dank Campbell's gonna be
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: blowing smoke up their ass all week. I think it's
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: gonna be like you, guys, got lucky, You better get ready.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: We got another divisional game coming in here. So I'm
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: right there with you, Chetta. I wanted to be on
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Green Bay, but I like the lines here, especially at
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't. I don't mind that
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: number at all.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Washington at Dallas this game, we both like. Washington here
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: got have a lot. This one got a lot of
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: attention from us on Sunday night, so it matches the
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: criteria of that sort of ATS edge for the road
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: dog in the division. Dak terrible and Thanksgiving mm hmm.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: The only reason we held off is we thought it
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: might even go up a little bit more. It's pretty
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: much State at eleven. This is a pros Joe's game
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: right now. There's money on the Commanders, there's bets on
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and pretty simple one. Maybe we finally get caught
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: this year, and maybe we could caught again next year.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: But I said, every year, you're gonna get three two
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: to three free points of value every Thanksgiving beat against
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys. And Evan just gave you the stats that
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: it plays out that way. What was it, Evan, eleven
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: to one, the last twelve ats Faith and the Cowboys
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: like the Cowboys. I mean, think about that. You're one
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: and eleven if you bet them the last twelve every Thanksgiving.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: And here we are again, Chad, another Thanksgiving. They're getting
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: all the money. And I can tell you just from
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: off my memory, we had no hope last year. I'm
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: almost pozose. Last year we were down double digits with
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones needing to get a last second touchdown. I
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: think even a two point or something crazy just to
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: cover whatever the number was last year, and Dallas took
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: the ball all the way down the field. Right they're
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: about to be up twenty one. I think they get
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: a turnover and the Giants go all way down the
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: field and get this the back door in a meaningless
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: score with you know, thirty seconds left, and it's just
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: that's how it kind of breaks for this Cowboys team. So, yeah,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: we've been lucky. I know we're riding a really lucky
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: trend here, but I can't avoid it. I told you,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: it's just you're just gonna get these free points every
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: every year because we already see it right now, seventy
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: percent of the bets, seventy percent of the tickets, it's
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: on the Cowboys. Like, that's just the public is that's
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: the public darling right now. So I'm right there with you, Chad.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: The the Washington just got embarrassed. Lost at Home is
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: a big favorite to the Giants. Everyone's off of well,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: no one's gonna be better. We'll take the eleven.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised that you feel strongly about Seattle here. Plus
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: seven opened it four and a half, moved up to
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: six while we were doing the show on Sunday, largely
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: because of the Geno Smith lack of news.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: No. Yeah, like I threw a bet on them just
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: because just in case.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: But then Pete Carroll says he's gonna be fine, he's
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: gonna play, So now it's as seven. I don't I
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: don't love this game, like I I feel like, I
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: don't love Seattle. I don't think they're good enough. But
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I don't like Kyle Shanahan as a big road favorite.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: It's historically a pretty bad spot for him. So what's
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: my edge here? Why do you feel strongly about Seattle?
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: I mean a bunch of reasons. I would say a
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: divisional home dog. Usually those trends are are good to
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: us taken, especially at this number. But yeah, the only
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: the only like the negative for me, why I'm not
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: gonna bett a lot on it just because of the
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: trends Evan just gave us, Like you bet favorites on Thanksgiving.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: It's that's just the way it is, Like you just
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: bet the favorites on Thanksgiving and you're gonna be profitable
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: long term. We'll never makes sense why the books don't
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: bump the dogs up, but they don't like for some
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: reason they know they'll get the money back by Sunday anyway.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I'm with you, chat. It's there's hard
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: to find reasons why you like Seattle here, But my
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: my biggest reason would just be yes, it's a short week.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: The forty nine ers on the Road after what I
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: think was a lucky cover. Baker had his first interception
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: in the red zone in three or four years. For
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: them to get that cover, you know, a lot of
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: things just don't go right for Tampa the end there,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: and it feels a little bit like you just said
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: the numbers moved Because I thought Gino was gonna be out,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: it made sense to the number moving, But if he's
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: gonna play, it feels like numbers moved a little too much. So, yeah,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: it's seven, I'm gonna be on the Seahawks. But if
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: it gets back down the six, I probably could talk
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: back into going back on the forty nine ERDs. That's
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: what I have right now, is I have a six ticket.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: But yeah, if it's Day seven, yeah I'm gonna have
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: a lot more money on the Seahawks at that seven.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: That's just too big of a number for a divisional game.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: You make a great point about Baker, which we're gonna
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: get to later in the show and we break down
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the Bucks game. It's a it's an interesting team to
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: be thinking about right now. We just went through the
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games. Detroit, we like Washington, we like Simnon, like Seattle,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: US seven I'm not quite convinced yet, kind of just
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: going to wait around on that one. Miami at the
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: New York Jets Black Friday game. First every Black Friday
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: game Cow Miami at the New York Jets. The numbers
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: at ten at BET three sixty five. It was at
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. It's gone up. This was a
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: game where I think you and I might have talked
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: about and we wanted to wait to see if it
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: went up. So there's a backup quarterback trend. Okay, we
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: should consider Tim Boyle is going to be playing in
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: place of Zach Wilson. Backup quarterbacks fifty three percent against
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the spread the last five years in their first game,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent the past two years, and in the
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: first of the games they played their fifty five percent.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: So there is a little bit of an edge for
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Tim Boyle against the spread based on history. Also the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: blowout factor teams that lost by twenty points against teams
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: that haven't lost by twenty points since twenty twenty covering
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: at sixty seven percent. To me, it feels like you
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: wanted back the Jets here. My fear is that the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Dolphins just came off a horrific game where they probably
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: should have scored eight million points and left so many
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: opportunities on the field. I mean, they had nine possessions
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: through the third quarter and no punts and only had
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: a three point lead in the game. Do I worry
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: also that the Jets defense, like they showed their frustrations
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: at the end of that Bills game. Are they just
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: done because of how bad that offense is that they
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: have to support? So eleen Jets? But I'm anxious.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Jets are gonna keep fighting though.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: That's why they're making the qv change. The big thing
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: to me too with them is the fact that Rogers
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: is in the building, like him coming in every day,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: and they see the work he's putting in the try
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: to get back. It's gonna inspire you a little bit.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: It's like, listen, we don't have a quarterback right now.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: We know if we win a couple of games, this
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: guy might be back. We just got to keep at it.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: And he mixed into this is a divisional game, the
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: number one team in your division. Yeah, this is a
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: huge game for the Jets. So I'm with you, chat,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait, I'm gonna get this. I'll wrap to
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: ten now, just in case, I'm not gonna put a
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: lot on it. I think it's still we'll keep going up.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: But yeah, whoever is the quarterback for the Jets, I
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: was gonna be on them this week. It makes me happy. No,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: it's not. Zach Wilson is as bad and as nobody
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: as Tim Boyle might be. At least I know that
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: he might have some type of upside. I just don't
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: have that with Zach Wilson. We know exactly what Zack
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Wilson is. So yeah, we can't put this in the
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: contest though, right, No, that's up, Yeah Friday. I like
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: the Jets. I would have liked them at ten and
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: a half in contest, but yeah, we can't put it in,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: So I guess that's mute.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I think it. I think it will get there. The
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: numbers at.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Ten h me too. But the pros might come in
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: on this and it alsome. We wake up and it's
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: down to seven and a half, you know, well.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: A little bit like we'll get a little bit of
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: a clue if it's headed in that direction. But even
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: on Sunday or like Friday, think about this, it's a
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: standalone game. There's going to be a huge.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Rush, all the things giving teasers, money line parlayser tied
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: to it.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but Friday, Friday morning, people are just going to
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: load up on the Dolphins, Like, this is not a
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: game where I'm nervous I'm going to miss the best
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: of the number. I think we're gonna get it whenever
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: we want it. The next game on our list the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots visiting the New York Football the Resurgent Giants.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: This was a game that you tagged on Sunday night.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: It was at three and a half. I betted at
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: three and a half. It moved to a bunch of
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: books and forget track everything we're doing. In the Action
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Network app, you can see the bets at least that
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I've made since Sunday. This is one of them. To me,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: it is about Mac Jones, right, doesn't matter the Patriots
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: had to buy, doesn't really matter who the coaches like.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones can't execute and he doesn't have the team anymore.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and Tommy DeVito is bad. I know he's bad.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: I know he got really lucky last week. But I
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: don't think Mac Jones is that much better. Mac Jones
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: just makes bad decisions. Consistently, and he might even be
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: the one playing. He might Who knows the Patriots are
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: going to play here? Chad, Like, no one really knows.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: We just know it's not a good quarterback, and that
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: to me is all that really matters. Right, It's like
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: these two teams aren't that different because the Patriot Patriots
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: have such bad injuries to that defense that like their
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: advantage having a great defense. I mean it falls on
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: the coach, but I feel like the Giants have better
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: guys on their side right defensively, It's it's an interesting matchup,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: but nothing's changed here. Yeah, there's still there's still some
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: three and a half's out there. We'll make this a
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: quick one. Like if this is three and a half
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: in the contest, me and Chat are both you know,
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: comfortable taking this number at that against the Patriots. They're
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: just the pros are going to keep betting the Patriots.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I talked to a couple of guys I'd even mention
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: that they like the Patriots, and I just laughed at them,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: just like, Okay, I bet you do. And it's like
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: I'm done with that life. So yeah, maybe they'll maybe
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: they'll catch us here for back in time. We DeVito
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: after the game of his life. But it's it's more
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: backing just the Giants. Yeah, I could see that I'm
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: losing this game, but not by more than a field goal,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: right shait? Like, who are these Patriots to be catching
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: this kind of number? So weird weird numbered be hung
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: by the books here.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: The Patriots should not be getting the hook on the road. No,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: just shouldn't create hot against By the way, I like
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: to call him touchdown Tommy TD stands for touchdown with me.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Can we get that going?
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Uh?
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Touchdown Tommy, He's the best. I love when you say, uh, yeah,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I bet you do. That sounds like just like such
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: a Philly asshole thing to say, you know, it's it's
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: so philly. One thing to think about. H I want
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: to bet the dogs in the low total games NFL
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: underdogs in game with totals below forty two, which is
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: this game, sixty percent against the spread since twenty eighteen.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Also thirty four, twenty one, and two this season, so
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: that's about sixty percent this season as well. So we
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: like the Giants here, We're not afraid find that hook though,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: right we talked about Tampa Bay before we talked about
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. This is such an interesting confounding team to me.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: They're at Indianapolis. Indianapolis is a two point underdog right
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: now in this game. I'm sorry, Indianapol's two point favorite
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: in this game. Every game, the Bucks look like they
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: are a play or two away from covering. And you
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: mentioned Baker and his red zone interception this past week
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: that would have helped them cover. Like that game against
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the Niners, every series it felt like, oh yeah, they
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: got a shot, they got a shot, Like the Niners
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: weren't dominating, despite the fact brock Purdy had a perfect
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: QB rating. It just felt like the Bucks were in
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: it the whole time. But neither of these teams are
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: standouts and anything, which is why the line is what
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: it is. I don't really see an edge here.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Do just in the sense that everywhere, all the public,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: everyone's gonna bet the Golts like the pro The pros
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: are the only ones betting the Bucks. And this game
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: is the exact same game as when the Bucks played
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Houston the number was two and a half. It landed
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: on two no one. I mean I literally had to
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: beg people to bet the Bucks in that game, and
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: I hated every minute of it, like we were dead.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: We needed Baker have the most insane game ever against
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Houston to cover that number because CJ was playing so well.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: So totally get it. Like I was so mad at
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: the Bucks last week. I mean, I again, I did
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: terrible last week, but that one really hurt losing that
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: one of the Bucks because it was right there. They
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: had multip opportunities to cover that backdoor and they just
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: couldn't get there. So it's it's tough. Like I get
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: where you're coming from, Chad, Like, no real read on it,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: but I do like the Bucks. I just I like
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: what they can do offensively to keep up with this
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Colts team, and especially with it being indoors the cold
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: second he's terrible. The best thing about this Bucks team
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: or the receivers like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans still
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: playing at one of the highest levels you can ask,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: like it's crazy how talented they are, both of them.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if people want my read on this one,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry to do it, do you. I do like
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: the Bucks here.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: I think this number is going to go up.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: It could. If it doesn't, though, that should even be
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: more of a reason to like the bucks. If this
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: doesn't get up to three, that just shows you the
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: really smart money's holding this number at two and a half.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Because right now I'm looking at the books, it's eighty
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the handle and fifty eight percent of
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: the bets right now are on the Colts. So that
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: means all the early money, it's only Tuesday, all the
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: early money right now is on the Colts, and that
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: number is not budged.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the books also have a really sneaky good third
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: receiver in Trey Palmer.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Would you go to high school with his dad or something?
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: No, I just keep watching the bus gates because fucking
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: betting this team and every time like this kid's making
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: some great play.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, now they got they got a bunch of random guys.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Like even even that running back they're brought up, he's
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: been all right. Like it's just the bucks. For me,
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: what they're lacking is coaching. I just think they had
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: bad coaching.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis just wave. This is from producer Tito Darius Leonard.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Darius Leonard, who had been an All Pro, had signed
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: a massive deal, has struggled with injuries the past couple
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: of years, had basically been moved down to the depth
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: chart where he was playing maybe first and second down
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: in a series in that just waves that is that
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: defense is hasn't been great. It's it's stats are okay,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: but strategically and at the wrong moments, they have given
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: up the worst plays. That's that's interesting. Interesting. Okay, No,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I didn't go to high school with his dad. By
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: the way, don't think that like your old jokes are
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: gonna get by me.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: It wasn't in that old joke. I mean, the dude's
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: probably in his early twenties. It's just like you, it's
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: just such a random name drop. It's like, why don't
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: you talk about everyone's third, third receiver of their team.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: I was just like, what's happening?
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Well, I just happened to see him make some place
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: to other day and I thought thought he was going
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: to help us get to a cover there. And it
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: turns out, you know, Baker kept it from happening. The Saints,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: our favorite team, the New Orleans Saints. We didn't have
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: to bet him last week that. Uh, this number is
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: kind of all over the board, like, yeah, they were
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: one point favorites, now they're one point underdogs. Desmond Ritter
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: is starting again for the Falcons. Ye, in my hopes
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: and dreams, we're just gonna walk away from this.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we can pass, and I do, obviously, I do.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: Like the Saints. It's a drug I can't quit. The
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: only pushback I'll give is I think Ritters finally figured
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: out that he is not a quarterback and that he
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: needs to rely on his legs more. And we saw
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Dobbs just the other week give this Saints defense a
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: ton of trouble being able to scramble. Now, this is
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: crazy to say, but Ritter is nowhere, nowhere close to
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: the pocket presence that Dobbs has. Right Like Ritter, he
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: makes one read. If it's not there, he pulls it
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: down and runs it, or he'll throw it at that
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: read that's in triple coverage and just say screw it, like,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: go make a play. He's terrible. So I don't know, Chad.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, all I can think of is that stat
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: that Evan gives us about a team moving from a
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: favorite to a dog. You have that here with Atlanta
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: makes me like the Saints even more. But yeah, we
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: sit here really early in the week. All the money
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: looks like all the money's coming in Atlanta. Interesting and
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: I need to know more about Derek Carr. So I
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: have no money bet on this game yet, but I'm
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: with Chad like, hopefully we stay away, stay away from
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: this one for all of you guys.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Hopefully, hopefully we can stay away. Hopefully we can resist.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: People are sick of it.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Every urge in the fiber of our beings to not
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: bet on the Saints because they have done nothing but
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: broken our heart this year. Really, in every scenario, they
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: have underperformed exactly when we need them to perform.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: It's and again, I can't quit them because it's the
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: defense and the weapons they have on offense. It's like
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: they should be such a good team in this horrible division,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: but the end of the day, they have Derek Carr
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: and Dennis Allen. It's like those are the two the
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: biggest negative factors of that team. So yeah, Chat, it's
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: it's a tough one. But don't worry people, I got
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: some I got some good ones coming up for you're
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: coming up.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: We got a whole like the Afternoon Slate. It feels
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: like every game I want to bet and you already
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: mentioned one off the top that is really interesting that
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: we're going to get into As a reminder, you can
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, Carolina is
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: visiting Tennessee. Tennessee right now is down to a three
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. It was four, So that
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: tells you a little bit about where the money's coming
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: in right now. Frank Wright might be coaching for his job.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: He truly coached a horrible game against the Cowboys just
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, the team didn't help, for sure, but he
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: did not put his team in a position to succeed.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Mike Rabel might might be auditioning for new jobs right
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Mike Rabel could be the next Patriots head coach. They
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: got Derek Henry is going to be a free agent.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Will Levis, who you've pointed out, he's just not good.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: And look at the stats from this past weekend, And
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: we always talk about this on the show, like understanding
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: the difference between what you see on paper and what
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are doing, which is looking a little
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: bit deeper at the numbers. And Levis's stats from this
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: past week are a perfect example of that. Thirteen to seventeen,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight yards, nine point three yards
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: per attempt, two touchdowns.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: Not bad.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Well, the YPA is held by the fact he had
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a forty three yard flee flicker to DeAndre Hopkins. One
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: hundred and seven of his passing yards came after the
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Titans were already out of the game against soft coverage. Overall,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: this team only ran thirty eight plays. Thanks to Music
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Citymiracles dot Com, by the way, for these great stats
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm ripping. The problem is the Panthers are just
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: as bad as the Titans. I think most of these
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: teams want the season to end already.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: I just love that they have a site based on
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: one play in Titan's history. It's like the Eagles with
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: the Hungry Dog Mask. Like there's so many companies in
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia that popped up called Hungry Dogs because all those
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: players were dog mask. It's just god bless football fans.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you know I was in You know, I
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: wrote the best selling book The Odds and about the season.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I spent in Las Vegas track and professional betters, and
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I happened to be with the main better. I was
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: tracking that Saturday of the Music City Miracle. He had
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars on the Titans to win that game.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Oh my god.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: We were eating breakfast in a diner and on his pager,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: because don't forget this is nineteen ninety nine. He saw
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: that the Bills were winning with god knows how much
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: time left, and he throws his pager on the table.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: He's disgusted. We pay the bill. We're walking out of
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: the restaurant to his gold corvette in the parking lot.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: We get in the car and his cell phone rings
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: and it's his partner saying, can you fucking believe we
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: won that game? Between the time we paid the bill
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: and the time we got to the car, the Music
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: City Miracle had happened. He had won one hundred thousand
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: dollars and then spent the rest of the car ride
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: home figuring out where else he was going to put
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: that money in play, because that's betting, my friend.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I want to apologize for Matt Mitchell
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: for saying anything. I don't even know. I'm so sorry, Matt.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I'm just glad that we have so much time on
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: this episode to go into stories like this, So it's.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: It's wonderful keeping going.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Ah, Simon, what do you think of this game?
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm about to say this people, but
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: it's we're betting Carolina. No fuck Carolina. My only option
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: is Tennessee and my survival pool. This is We're in
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: week twelve, this is where we're at, so fucking hate it.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: I gotta I gotta believe in the Titans. If you've
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: been riding with me, you six tons of bitches, you
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: better go with me. Because we lose, we all lose together.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: So Titans survivor pick. I'm taking the minus three and
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: a half. I don't care if it's super chalky. Give
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Derek Henry fifty touches for all our care. This is
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: such a verable game, like this is everything they know.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: They need this one desperately, and the fear is that
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: they've quit on him and that they've kind of rolled over.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: I just don't see it. Like Carolina, that makes more sense, right,
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Like Frank Reich does even last the season there, That
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: makes more sense rather than verable. So yeah, not making
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: this pig balls or anything like that. But Survivor pick,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, on a rookie quarterback gotta do it.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: Gotta take the Titans. It's the only option I got.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: All right, can I give you?
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: So?
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Look the number is moving in Carolina's direction, right, So
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: that's number one, number two. And again this is just
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: about the spread. Yeah, teams after losing by twenty plus
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: points at home getting three plus points the next week
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread since twenty seventeen. There's one
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: game that fits that trend in Week twelve, Carolina Panthers,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: my friend.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a great matchup of them. They're going
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: up against Will Lovis. But damn it, I don't know
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: what else to do. It's the only thing I can
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: do for survivors.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: So can we pause the podcast for fifteen minutes so
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: I can reread the odds and come up with some
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: more anecdotes from the book, so I can annoy Matt
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Mitchell to no end in his busiest week of the year.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh gets Cincinnati this game. It flipped right, So I
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: think Pittsburgh was a one point underdog on Sunday. Indeed,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: you loved it, you bet it. It's now flipped. Cincinnati
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: is plus one. Don't forget teams that open as underdogs
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: close His favorites struggle to cover that number forty nine
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: eighty six against the spreadsince twenty nineteen nineteen and thirty
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: nine in the last two seasons. Pittsburgh's one of those teams.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: God damn it, no, no, but.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: You got them. Like that's like the Rams last week, right,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: I bet the Rams at plus one. They closed it
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: minus too. You just got to get him when they're
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: an underdog, not when they're a favorite. So if you're
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: listening to the show, you kind of want to avoid
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: the Steelers. Of the point, I actually feel like we
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: might want to go in on the Bengals. We've got
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: the backup quarterback theory that I talked about before versus
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: a playmaking Steelers defense, which is scary. But the thing
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: that like is the X factor to me is Matt
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: Cannona got fired this morning. So how much does that
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: change the offense in four days or is it more
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: about psyche or at this point is the game of pass?
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we can, we can pass on it for now.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: That's what thinks about doing this on Tuesday. It's like,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: I wish I had a harder opinion on this one,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: but see, I just gave you all the stats, like
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: it's it's scaring me off the Steelers. But I do
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: like the Steelers, especially the fact they fired Mecanna just
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: so that fan base can learn he wasn't a problem.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: The problem is you don't have a quarterback. I think
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: that's the issue. It's like, since since he's been there,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: he had Roethlisberger to Rudolph to a dude, Dame Hodges
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: to just a bunch of trash, and you know, Pittsburgh fans,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I just want to blame someone, and he was the
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: easy guy to blame. And I'm sure they're gonna start
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: blaming Tomlin even though they've never had a losing season
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: with Tomlin. It's just fans are dumb. Like we say
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: all the time, fans are dumb. I mean, I grew
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: up listening to WIP Philadelphia Radio. Some of the dumbest
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: fans in the world. Philadelphia Baby, Like just people calling
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: up every week to fire Andy Reid, the future Hall
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: of Fame coach. It's just the way it is. It's
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: just how people are. So I'm with you, like the
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: Canda thing might be actually beneficial to them, just because
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: maybe that does give him extra motivation of this game.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: Who knows, But Chad's right, Like, there's just a lot
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: of stats that favor the first start for the backup
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: in their first game. And that's what this is here.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: I actually wrote in the notes when I was sort
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: of going through the rundown, this game, to me is
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: not one that we can make a decision today, Like,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I just need more evidence. You just said the same thing. Yeah,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: do it on Tuesday. I will say we haven't delivered
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: anything yet. Foxhole exec decision. Simon says, big balls.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: Are we saving them? Where you? Because I thought we're
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: doing the end of the show. I can do them
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: now if you want to do them.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I think if we pass a game that we want
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: to name one of those bets, we should be doing it. Okay,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: I have a Simon says.
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: First one. We can make it. Simon says, I'll do
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: that Giants number. I do think it comes down to three,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: So grab the three and a half if you.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Can do it, all right, I was going to say
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the end.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Of the show, but yeah, I can do it.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Throughout I wanted to. I was wondering if we want
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: to make Foxhole, make the Giants Foxhole? But let's make it.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Okay, Well, That's fine because I don't think
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: any of these games we talked about, like Bucks two
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: and a half, uh since then, Like that's the only
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: game we've really gone in on. Yeah, I don't think
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: we've missed anything, and I don't think we need to
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: make the Thanksgiving games, you know, the Foxholes and things
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: like that. Jacksonville at Houston, here we go. I mean,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: there's so many ways to look at this game, right.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: The Jags are of a value because they just brought
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: the Titans. The Texans are undervalued because CJ looked human
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, and a lot of books are probably
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: still not even properly rating them. There's no real scenario
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: as a divisional matchup. Houston's defense is top ten in
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: pressure percentage with a very low blitz percentage, which I
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: like defensively, but Trevor Lawrence has the quickest release in football,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: tied with two at one point nine seconds. You said
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: you like Houston, explain yourself.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: I like Houston for a bunch of reasons. The biggest
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: one it's a nice spot for them after such a
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: bad game and the fact they got away with that win.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: I feel like you're playing a little bit of house
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: money here. People are mad at them, right, they didn't
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: get the cover. We talk all the time, what's CJ's
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: record as a dog? He's pretty damn good. Like I
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: feel like he's a covering the spread as an underdog.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: You say five and one, yep, yeah, and he's zero
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: and four is a favorite. Pretty talent trends to start
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: this guy's career. It's like you want to back them
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: as a dog, especially as a home dog. I feel
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: like that's a good spot to take it. So you
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: want to make this our big balls or our foxhole.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Let's put it in the foxhole.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: To a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's put it in the foxhol This is going
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: to be the foxhile Houston is the foxhole.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: And just looking at this matchup, I get the love
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: for the Jaguars, right, I mean, when it's when it's working,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: their offense is really fun. Trevor Lawrence passing it looks amazing.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: I mean they're finally using Ridley, who's really good. Etn
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: is a great back. I mean he's really carried to
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: help carry that team when Trevor struggled this season. But
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: Houston defense is much better than Tennessee's defense, especially in
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: the secondary. I mean the Titans, they got rid of
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: their best defender on the secondary to the Eagles, like
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: they traded him weeks ago, and you've kind of seen
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: that pop up. Their secondary is just bad Tennessee. So
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: any team can look really good against Tennessee secondary. That's
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: not shocking at all. We know that coming to the
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: year too. It's like Tennessee's run defense, when of the
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: best in the league, their pass defense terrible. Houston's pass
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: defense is actually pretty good, Like they're surprisingly not as
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: bad as people perceive. And you know, even in really
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: hard matchup, I mean against Joe Burrow, they had some
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: big plays and clutch moments against a really tough passing
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: and offense. And I just look at this number. They're
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: at home again. If you're scared because the number is
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: so low, put them in a teaser then I mean,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: you can get this up to seven and a half
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: right now, just on a six point teaser. That's a
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: great number for Houston at home in this position. So
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: I love divisional dogs. I'm really really hoping this one
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: will keep going up. Like if we could get this
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: two two and a half in contest, the easiest one
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: of our five this week, but even at one and
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: a half down to point half, as long as they
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: stay a dog, Me and Chad will have Houston come
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Sunday in our contest.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I like the Texans here too. That defense, to
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: me is starting to get much better. Sean Kerner talked
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: about it on convinced me like Will Anderson he had
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: so many pressures and was playing so well without any sacks,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: and you saw some of the stuff that he did
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: this past week, and he was getting closer and closer
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: to the quarterback and really disrupting things. So against a
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: mediocre offensive line without any pressure coming from the blitz,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Will Anderson has a chance to make some noise in
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: this game. So I like it on both sides where
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: really we're agreed. Houston Texans fox home La Rams at Arizona.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: This line is moving all the money coming into Arizona.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: You know, I think people are realizing that Kyler Murray
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: is back, that he's a great athlete. I think people
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: feel like the Rams probably got a little bit lucky
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: last week in the way they won the game and
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: covered those of us who Adam as dogs. Thank you
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: to Drew Locke. Not a strong opinion of this game though.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if Evan has any
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: trends on this, but it does feel like Arizona usually
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: plays the Rams really well. But maybe I have that wrong.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: I just remember there's something weird with this division where
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: it's like each team has their matchup and that's who
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: they play really well against. But you know, Arizona is
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: just a team that you talked about it last week.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: I just kept saying, I just think people are undevaluating
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: or undervaluing what Kyler means to this team and how
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: athletic he is and how good he is. And got
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: extremely lucky last week with this team, Like they came
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: out on fire, put up a bunch of points and
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: then just did nothing in the second half. And then
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: lucky for them, Houston doing this anything in the second
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: half either, so they were able to cover that five
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: and a half. You know, this number. To me, there
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be they shouldn't be a dog like I do
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: have it as them as a slight favorite. So okay,
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: so I but the other way, the Rams own Arizona.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: The Arizona is two and eleven ats versus the Rams
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, I knew there was something weird when
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: one of these teams to own the other one. That's crazy.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe I'll maybe I'll walk away from it,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: but I do. I do like Arizona in this spot.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: But that is a very telling sign just McVeigh. He
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: knows how to play against this Arizona team clearly since
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: he's taken over the Rams. That's that's wild. Since twenty seventeen,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: two and eleven ats the Rams are I mean, the
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: Arizona is against the Rams. So yeah, it making me
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: coward a little bit here. I already bet the Arizona
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: might have bet it too early here.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this game feels like we need to get more information,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: like I would let the market dictate ultimately what I decided.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Do you hear? Because this one feels a little bit trippy,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: like both teams are sort of mired in meek mediocrity
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: and two worse if you're the Cardinals, except they feel
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: a little ascendant and the Rams feel like they're plateauing,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: and the Rooms plateau was just so much higher than
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, right, Now.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I need as someone that heavily bet the Rams
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: win total over this. This would go a long way
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: for me if the Rams did win this game. But yeah,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: my model says there's value in Arizona, but the trends
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: clearly show the Rams are probably the better bet.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: All Right, the next game up, we're talking about Denver
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland. And you mentioned this in the in the
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: sharp call segment. Now, Cleveland is a two and a
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: half point underdog. We know this is a luck under game.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I kind of feel like the books are trying to
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: trap us here in that this is a a pros
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Joe's game a little bit. But also like somehow the
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Broncos are early two games out of first in the
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: AFC West and they are in the playoff race. How
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: does this make sense?
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: In Cleveland was a rookie quarterback, it's gonna be just
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: because of the turnover look like the I think they
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: had ten turnovers in the last three games or something
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: like that. This Denver team, which is just stupid, Like
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: that's just it's impossible to keep. And I would say
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: anyone that took Denver last week feels like they got
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: robbed just because they kicked five field goals. Like in
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: a game where your defense is getting all these turnovers
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: and you're just kicking field goals, It's like, what is
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: happening here? Now? That was a brutal, bad beat. And
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: that's why I originally I wanted to be on Denver
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: here because it's just like I feels like I'm getting
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: value on them just because they didn't cover last week
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: and they did struggle offensively. But I took a step
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: back and I listened to the guys and then them
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: give me the reasons why I should be on Cleveland.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: It does. It does make sense to sound right where
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: it's like, you have what's the best unit on the
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: field in this game between these two teams, it's by
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: far the Cleveland defense. And a strength of the Cleveland
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: team is running the ball. What do we see last
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: week with Denver's team? They still cannot Yeah, and they
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: can't make tackles, like the first guy can't make the tackle.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: They always need the second or third guy to bring
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: the running back down. So, man, I hated this one
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: because I wanted to fade Cleveland's so bad. I mean,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: it's a rookie on the road. You can get Denver
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: under a field goal. It feels like a really good number.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I gotta I gotta listen to my brother
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: and the pros like they got this one lined up
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: and I'm with them, like if if, if they end
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: up as one of our five, I wouldn't be shocked,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: just because this is a good matchup for Cleveland's defense,
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: especially going against a Denver team that is so reliant
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: now on turnovers. Without the turnovers, they wouldn't be winning
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: and covering these these games the last couple weeks, right,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: that's really changed the season around for that team. So yeah,
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Chad one of those dogs where it's like I didn't
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: see it. I needed others to tell me what I'm seeing,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: And now when they broke it down and it made
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: sense where it's like you know, you're right, Like Cleveland
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: is probably the good good spot to take here. They're
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: the better team. They're playing in a hard division. That's
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: why I like, you throw the records out and you're
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: just looking at these two teams just blank on a
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: piece of paper, and it's just like, you know what
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: I get that Denver has been playing well, it's just
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: it just still feels like the best shootit on the
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: field by far that that Cleveland defense.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Look, the best player on the field might be Miles Garrett.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: They that defensive line especially. We talked about this with
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. It's a playmaking defensive line. It's not a
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: defensive line that is just stopping people. It is a
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: defense that is putting their team in a position to
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: win week after week after week, no matter who is
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: playing quarterback, no matter how good the other team is.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: The entire unit realizes a little bit like the Steelers,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: like they have to step up and make plays, and
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: they've got the athletes to do it, and with Jim Schwartz,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: they've got the scheme to do it. So yeah, I
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: get it. To me, this feels like it needs to
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: be our big balls better the week because we're betting
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: a quarterback and his second start, a rookie quarterback going
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: a mile high on the road as a short dog. Like,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: there's no reason against a team in the Broncos that
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: has I think won four in a row. Now they
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: part of the season one in five and they won
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: in prime time. Like this is a big balls play.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: To me, Big balls better the week, Big balls Better
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the week.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns plus two and a half. One more stat.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I want to get you bought in on big balls
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: before I gave you another stat to make you feel
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: even better about why we're doing it. I mentioned this
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: earlier bet. The dogs are low total games NFL underdogs
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: with games and games with the total of below forty two,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread since twenty eighteen and sixty
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: percent ish this year. This game is totaled at about
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: thirty five thirty five and a half right now. And
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: it's also a luck under. You know the luck rankings,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: which we're going to talk about. We got a luck
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: matchup this week, a big luck matchup luck totals which
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: are performing very well. This is a luck under bet.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: The Browns bet the under Kansas City at Las Vegas.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas currently nine and a half. We talked about
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: this on the Sunday Show. I am going to make
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders my exact decision.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Wow, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: you av your honor's texting your number? Executive decision?
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I think I'm flying high on exec decisions lately.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: I do like it. The way here is that this
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: probably should be ten and it's come down a lot.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Maybe the Chiefs are bad or they aren't as good
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: and they shouldn't be this big of a favorite. But man,
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: that that's that's that's a lot of movement for a
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: Vegas team that got really lucky to cover last week
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: and a Chiefs team that got really unlucky not to
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: cover this past week. I mean, they had a Kelsey
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: fumble in the red zone, then they had a drop
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: touchdown at the end of the game. This number would
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: be what at ten ten and a half if the
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: Chiefs had covered.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: So they'll might get there go back.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think it will though, just because the public
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: is going to be on Vegas, Like every one of
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: their grandma for the most part, was on the Chiefs
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: last night. I mean everyone, like anyone I talked to
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: was just like, yeah, it's it's mahomes like under under
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: three points. Like I know a lot of guys I
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: liked the two and a half. They took the money
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: line on the Chiefs and they're pissed. They're all pissed off.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: big public dog this week in Vegas. Jet. So yeah,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to talk to you off your bet.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: Just just just be just be careful here with this one,
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: just because I think the public and everyone else is
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: just off this Chiefs team at this point.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: Now, Oh look, the Chiefs, like you pointed out, I
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: think five straight games without a touchdown in the second half.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: I think I think they have one game right with
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: a touchdown the second half.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: That's the game.
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: But crazy.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I think there's a couple of things colliding here. I
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: think one strategically and philosophically. Andy Reid sort of pulls
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: back the rains a little bit in the second half
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: because his teams are usually up and he's playing the clock,
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Like he starts thinking about the end of that game
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: as soon as they get into the second half. And
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: number one, number two they don't have who can make
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: plays downfield.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Did you see this staff from Evan? What do you
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: say Vegas is getting eighty percent of the tickets now
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: percent of the money?
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't count anything on Tuesday. Oh shit though,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: Oh well, the scariest thing you said to me is
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: public dog. When you say public dog, it makes me
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: so upset because I hate being on the side of
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: the public dog.
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: But like you said it is. Evan just said it
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: to it. It's it is crazy early. Yeah, but it
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: just that's what my original read was going to be.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: It's just like I feel like no one's gonna be
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs right now. They're just going to be getting
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: bad mouths smacked around. And it reminds me a lot
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: of that Bills spot this past week of the Bills
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: were kind of left for dead right against the Jets.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Then you saw the Pros come in. That number got
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: at the eight and a half and a lot of
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: books right before I kickoff on the Bills team. So yeah,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: this just it just this is and it might be
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: a good spot for this Chiefs team. Chat. So I'm
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: just I have no money bet on this yet. On
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Sunday night we talked about it. I was with you
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: then on Vegas and now I'm just a little hesitant
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: just because the value might start shifting towards this Chiefs team.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: This number keeps coming.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: Down, well hey, it keeps coming down. It could be
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: a time for a little you know, action for Milman.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: Middleman Patrick Mahomes.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: More than a field goal favorite thirty five and forty
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: against the spread, more than a touchdown favorite, eighteen twenty two.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: Geeesh agree.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: Look, we defied the odds last week and bet him
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: is bet against him as less than fieldal favorite when
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: he crushes, So you know it's true. All right, you
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: mentioned this game with the top Buffalo.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: I got back one tenth of all that money I
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: lost in the Super Bowl. How great.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: It's nice. Before the season began, Philadelphia right now is
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite. Before the season began,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: this was the second lowest odds for a Super Bowl
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: matchup at twenty to one, behind the Chiefs and the Eagles.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Now mc dermott's on the hot seat. The Bills have
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: fired their offensive coordinator. They celebrate beating the Jets like
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: as the playoffs. The Eagles just avenge their Super Bowl
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: in a dramatic defensive battle. The Eagles defense is fierce. Yeah,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: it feels like I know you said you like the
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: Eagles because the wise guys are on the Bills.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: The wise guy like the Bills for me.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: The hook says we should be on the Bills. And
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: in fact, after I wrote all these notes, I don't
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: know if you saw this, we got a note in
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: our slack channel for luck rankings. I've not massive, massive
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: advantage for the Bills in the luck rankings.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: I don't care. I don't care. Oh god, No, it's
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: just what is this number? Is this the Bills? Is
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: this twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two Bills? No, And
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: that's this number would make sense if that's what those
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: teams were. And that's why we don't like that chief number.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: I felt like that was a chief number from last year,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: not this year. And it feels the same with the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: Bills in this number against the Eagles, where it's like
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: the Eagles can play bad, they can struggle, they can
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: get down double digits and you never really lose faith
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: in that team. That's just how good that this Egles
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: team this year is. The Bills have none of that.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: Like the Bills. If I need a touchdown from Josh Allen,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: I don't have faith in Josh Allen right now. I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: faith they he'll throw a pick because he's trying to
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: force it in and do too much. The Bills need
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: to get a stop. They cannot get a stop. They
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: do not have the guys on defense to get the stop.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, not shocking the pros like and not shocking.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: The money's coming on the Bills. I mean, it's nice
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: to get three and a half. I think people are
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: happy to get three and a half in the Bills
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: because they think it's all good because they just won
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: a game. Like after firing their OC against the Jets.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: It's like, man, I don't know about backing them in
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: this spot here, so here we go, thank you. Having
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Eagles are three to zero straight up in games when
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: trailing by ten points or more at any point, and
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: five and two straight up since it started last year
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: when they're down by ten or more points. Every other
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: team in all of football the entire NFL is sixty seven,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: two hundred and ninety nine and two straight up, so
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: eighteen point three percent in that spot the last two seasons.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: So it's an Eagles team that they're just really good,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Like people have such high expectations for them that they
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: don't play perfect and they look sloppy. Doubt creeps in,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: they go something's wrong about this team. I mean every week,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: I think since Week one, we've heard something's not right
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: about this Eagles team. And here they are ten to one,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: nine o one whatever they're at now. It's just it's
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: crazy how good and dominant they've been this season, So
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: I get why the pros are coming on the Bills.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: They think it's a good number. Again, Josh Allen is
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: a dog, they like the spot. Historically, the Eagles defense
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: has struggled with running quarterbacks. I just don't think this
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: Bills team deserves this kind of respect. Like my model
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: makes this five, I personally could see this being six.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: So right now my model has this off by one
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: and a half. I like the value there, and then
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: me personally, I think it's off by even more. So Yeah,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: I can't get there the Bills chat. I'm sorry, brother,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: I just I like the Eagles of this number, especially
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: the fact that it's early again early in the week.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the books right now in the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Action app eighty five percent the handle right now is
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: on the Bills, so early money is slam in that
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: three and a half.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: What got me was when you just said your model.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: I listen, We've said the same thing about the Eagles
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: all season. They're just a good team. They don't seem
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: to ever be afraid when they're losing. They seem completely confident.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: They make the right decisions in the right spots. They
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: are you know what they are They're a group of
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: professionals playing professional football, and like, I know that sounds silly,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: there is a nuanced distinction between that and say, how
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: other teams go up and down emotionally. These guys are
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: about their business and they get their job done even
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: under the most, even when the circumstances aren't perfect for them.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: So I can see why you're saying it. I can
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: see what you would say about the number. I've got
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of conflicting emotions right now. I'm sure we
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: will have deeper conversations when it's time to make a pick.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: We'll see how the number moves. You're gonna be on
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: the Eagles bit the Bills. I don't know that we'll
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: be able to put this in a contest, especially depending
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: on where the number lands.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: I don't buy out, maybe I'll get you there chat.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: It's or in the week. I mean, right, who doesn't
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: make a bet on Monday or Tuesday and buy out
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: their position.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: It's just a ready everyone buys out. It's the most
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: in the world, simon.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: But I was just gonna say one thing I did,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: like Peyton Manning on the Manning Cast said about the
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: Eagles team, which is very true. Is that these Super
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: Bowl teams, the best teams are complete teams, right. They
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: have a good special teams, they have a good defense,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: and they have a good offense. And when one group lags,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: you need the other group to pick up what's lagging.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: And last night the defense was lagging, right, they couldn't
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: stop the run the first half, and the second half
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: they picked it up. The offense was lagging, couldn't couldn't
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: score it, go and move the ball picked up in
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: the second half, and then special teams. You know, the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: punter basically won the game for the Eagles, Like he
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: made some huge punts in the rain that really pined
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: the team back. So you know, when guys like Peyton
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Manning talk about that stuff, it really sinks in where
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: it's like it's true, it doesn't matter if you have
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: the best offense in all of football, if you have
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: a shit defense and shit special teams like football, you
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: really do need to be good all three fasts of
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: the game. And again, the Eagles right now playing at
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: a high level all three ways. The Bills, the only
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: thing you could turn to is their offense, and an
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: offense that you can make one dimensional. So I get
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: the love for the Bills chat. I'm just telling you,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: don't bet this line like it's twenty twenty two. Bet
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: it like it's twenty twenty three. This ain't your dad's bills.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: This is this is a bad Bills team.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving, Matt Mitchell Simon. Can you name the fastest
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: growing ticketing up in the United States?
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One, they sponsor this show too.
• 1:05:42
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• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: Time right now from my house here in Connecticut. You
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: know what I see? I see the New York Jets
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: playing on Friday, Black Friday. Go check out the malls
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: in Jersey, and why not go to the game for
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: less than one hundred and forty dollars. By the way,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Also great college basketball happening the NIT tip Off and Barclays.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: You can get into that for twenty bucks this week.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time map,
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• 1:06:19
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  Speaker 1: Price guaranteed. All Right. Two more games Baltimore at Los
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers. This one's at four four and a half
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We talked about it that you probably
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: had to take the Chargers at four and a half.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: I didn't make a play on this game. It's a
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: weird spot because the philosophy dictates take the Chargers. It's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: just a mismatch at every level. But John Harbaugh Lamar
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Jackson not very good as favorites. Lamar thirty nine, twenty nine,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: thirty four as a favorite, Harborught eighty seven, ninety and
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: five as a favorite. So we're talking about a.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Lamar's thirty nine and twenty four as a favorite, twenty
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: nine and thirty four. Okay, okay, As we would say,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: what do you mean, it's not very good?
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: You know, not very good. So you know, I think
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: that the spot is the Chargers. Yeah, but it's it's
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: a it's hard to pull the trigger on that one
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: because I think this team is creating.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: I know, and I had to pro say to me,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: this is why you should take the Chargers like this horse, Yeah,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: I said him. I just it's hard for me to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: get there. Like you're just saying, so another game where
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: comes Sunday. This might be in me and Chad's five,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: just because we should be betting this one. It reminds
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: me a lot of Green Bay against the Chargers. Green
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: Bay was three and a half in our contest. YEP
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: should have got there. We knew that was a good number,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: and I just I just didn't have the balls to
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: pull pull the trigger on it. And it's just something
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna live with a regret the rest of
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: my life. Chad. But no, this this Chargers game, It's
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: like Chad's so right, we should be on the Chargers here.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: We play this number on the Chargers. This is when
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: you want to back the Chargers, not when their favorites,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: but when they're over a three point dog. Usually that's
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: really good to us because Herbert just plays these close,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: ugly games. So yeah, Chad, like a game this might
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: be one of our five. Like the more we're talking
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: about thinking about I get I agree with Chad, I
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: didn't bet the Sunday Night. I don't have a penny
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: on this game. I wish I did. Now it's just
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: a nice number in a nice spot to back the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: Chargers team. So uh yeah, the hope is I'm gonna
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: grab this three and a half. Now grab the four
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: when we get off this call, and then by kickoff
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: it's down to three. And I feel good because I
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: got closing line value. But yeah, this this game, this
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: game turns your stomach, doesn't it.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: Chad totally makes me sick. But that's betting. That's what
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: we do. The Chicago Bears visiting the Minnesota Vikings and
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Monday Night football guy look trend wise, slight edge to
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: the road favorite right in the division, I mean to
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: the to the road team in the division. So the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Bears needed four turnovers to stay in that game against
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: It's still barely covered, so to me is one now
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: six in a row. No, they won five in a row.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: They lost last week.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: It covered or whatever, right, it did cover, but we were.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: Off of that Minnesota team. They just happened to play
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: a team in Denver that couldn't stop the run for
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: a day. So it was really challenging to try to
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: handicap this game. Don't feel strongly about it right now.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: See I was shocked. I thought the Vikings would be
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: the luckiest team in the luck rankings. Like you have
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs throwing one, jumping up in the air, throw
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: off his back foot, get a perfect throw. It doesn't
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: make sense. Like this guy, he's playing like a five
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: year All pro that played at Ohio State, Like he
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: is what justin field should be, like a cocky, smart
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: great in the pocket, uses us athleticism when he needs to,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: but then usually makes the right read throwing the ball,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: Like it doesn't make sense because Dobbs is a horrible
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: passer and you saw it in that game. Like there's
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: sometimes where he had all the time in the world
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: he could set his feet and he's throwing terrible balls,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: or he's throwing in double coverage, Like that's that's the
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: guy's issue. It's not as lethleticism. So yeah, I want
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: to be on the Bears. Like this guy Dobbs is
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: not as good as he's perceived by the public right now,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: it's it doesn't make sense how he keeps doing it.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: I totally get it. If you're scared off. You don't
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: want to do it, but I'm telling you, the value
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: is on the Bears. Like this numbers should be two
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: and a half three. You know the fact that it's
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: three and a half. I'll take the numbers just because
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: Chad said it. Like the Bears obviously are a bad team.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: They're not that good, but they do have such good weapons,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: Like on their offensive side of the you saw that
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: when they're running fields out that piston't look and it's
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: like he can run the ball to the left, or
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: he can fake the run and then throw it to DJ.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: It's like they have it all there. They just they
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: just haven't put it together in a complete game. So
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: you know, rams defense, they have looked better, like they
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: they they made moves and those moves have improved that team.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: The linebacking corps gotten better, Like they're better against the
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: run now as we get later into this season, which
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: will bode well for them against the Vikings, because that's
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: what the Vikings do. They run to set up the pass.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: Like that's I think Chris told us they're one of
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: the heaviest play action team in all football. So yeah,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: so I'm on the Bears. Don't know if it's gonna
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: be one of our five. Heere we sit on Tuesday.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: But I can tell you there is value on the
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: line like this. This number should not be above three.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: You're getting value right now on a divisional dog a
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: three and a half. So I'm gonna take that with
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: the Bears. But definitely a tough one to do, just
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: because Dobb's been so incredibly lucky this since he's taken
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: over with this Vikings team.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Uh, we're gonna get to what our five would be
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: right now at the end. And I'm looking at our
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: list and it's pretty ugly right now. But that's betting folks.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: Money line underdog round, robin dog blocks your dog, Your
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: dog blocks mot dog. Here are the notes that I've
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: been taking so far. Texans love it, Browns love it.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: Chargers all right, you have to I threw Washington in there.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, give us a big dog in there, big.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Dog in there. I'm torn on the fifth.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a sick dog. So I'd either go
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: with the Jets because that's such an insane number that
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: could really bump us up. Oh we didn't do the Giants.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, well let's do the Giants then.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I'd rather do the Giants much more than the Jets.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, take out the Jets, take out the Giants
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: and take out the Giants. The Jets and put in
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: the Giants. Okay. Houston Browns charge Washington Giants is our
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: money line Underdog round Robin Simon, Let's make Little Caesars,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: of your game day. We're already in mid November, Simon,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: this Thanksgiving, are you the most grateful for Little Caesars Pizza?
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: I am order online during our pizza pizza pre game
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: one hour before NFL games and get ready to for
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: some football. In fun, choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, my friend, what
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: do you think about this new motto I invented? Are
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: you ready?
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: Yes?
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Even if your car is coated in rust, you can
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: always afford crazy crust. However you order your pizza, you win.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: our in store pizzaa portal pickup, So grab some friends
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Survivor the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: survivorpool pick of the week for Week twelve, you already
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: said it, Tennessee. Has anything made you change your mind?
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: The Vikings one stands out a little bit now that
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: we're like breaking it down where I haven't used the
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: Vikings either. I feel a little better with Dobbs than
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: I deal with Will Levis. God damn the pressure here
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: because I know you people count on me. God damn you.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: The only thing that'scaming off the Panthers is that it's
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: stat that Chad gave I got these damn teams. Fucking hey, dude,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: fuck Will Levis. I can't go with Will Levis. I wait,
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: I'd win so much money if I win this damn
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: Survivor pool. I'm gonna I'm gonna go with Minnesota. You
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: know what, Hopefully Evan saved my life with that stat
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: about the Panthers. I'm gonna go with Minnesota. Dobbs outright,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna try to thread the needle here. I
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: have this land on a field goal. I'll take take
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: the Bears in the spread. I'm taking the Vikings to
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: an out right. I hate Survivor pools.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Oh, oh my god, You're gonna be excruciating agony on Monday.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: I'm already I'm already dreading it, but I just the
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: Will Levis thing is killing me, Like he is so bad.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: All right, I know it's only Tuesday at this point.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: Do you have, like Tuesday eight am for you already?
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: Any bets that feel relatively big at this point?
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: I mean depressing, I would say depressing wise, it's probably
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: the Giants, Giants Houston. Yeah, that's about it, because I'm
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: hoping that Cleveland line gets up to three. I'm hoping
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: the Eagles gets down to three. I'm hoping Tampa gets
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: up to three again. Like Chad said, it's so early
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: in the week, I really haven't yet, but yeah, gross wise, like,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: I'm heavily invested in the Giants because I just thought
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: that it would be three by now in the three
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: and a half would be gone. I didn't want to
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: miss it. And I bet a lot on the Houston
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: just in case they do flip to be a favorite.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: So yeah, most mostly waiting on a lot of these numbers.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: But yeah, again, it's Tuesday, early bets on fortune heavily
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: invested in the Giants.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: three six five Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
• 1:16:09
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  Speaker 1: a gambler or one a undred bets off in Iowa terms.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply. Here's the recap. Foxhol Houston plus one
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: and a half, Simon says, New York Giants plus three
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Executive Decision, Las Vegas plus nine Big Balls Cleveland plus
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: two and a half. The round Robin Houston, Cleveland, Los
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers, Washington, New York Giants. If we had to
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: lock in five right now, we had a lock in
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: five right now, Simon, I'm going Giants, I'm going Houston.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go Cleveland, I'd probably go Raiders, and then
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go Chargers.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: I don't hit it, And I'm just gonna do a
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: quick quick update on a lot of lines because they
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: are moving like crazy. The Rams that one of the
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: most public books have flipped from a minus one favorite
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: against the Arizona to a plus one and a half
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: dog against Arizona, which is pretty big movement. That's two
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: and a half points of movement in the last hour.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: The Pittsburgh Steelers are up the plus uh one minus
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: one and a half. So if you like Cincy, like
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: cha I was talking about that that first game as
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: a dog, you might be able to wait. That number
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: might keep going up. The fact that's up to one
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: and a half is kind of the big deal because
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: that's like it's getting towards the two. So yeah, some
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: late movement here on these lines, Chad. But yeah, for
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: for our five the ones you just said, and then
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: the Giants, the Giants have moved. There's only two books
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: now showing three and a half for the Giants, So
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: you want to grab that number that that number is
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: literally moving while we do the show. It's moved at
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: five books.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: That's why you got to watch the show on Sunday.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: That's why you got to listen to this live so
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: you can get the best of the number. Speaking of live,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: the Favorites is doing it live on December third, Baby
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: Live from New Jersey December third, This Sunday show, This
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: Sunday show. We'll be live December third from The Shepherd
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead in Hoboken. You get prizes, you get drinks,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: you get in for free warm embraces from me and
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: Simon also free, so much more. You must RSVP go
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: to the link in our description, in the episode pages,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, and on the podcast page. Be sure to
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: catch the next episode of The Favorites Live this Sunday
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: at seven thirty pm Eastern. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers.
• 1:19:18
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• 1:19:21
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