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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Markets Flip on Trump Shooting: 8 Stock to Buy NOW! + Stock Market News 15 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this Monday morning live, the day after the attempted Trump assassination.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: And today is not going to be about politics.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I don't really give a hoot who you elect as president in the US, none of my business but it's moving the markets very, very significantly and I want to walk you through about maybe a dozen or so stocks and sectors to buy and to sell, because we're seeing some really big shifts here, really big trends, and explain those to you, the best informed investor, not just today, but going into November and for the coming four years after that.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: So ask questions if you like.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: That's what we do this live for.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I will answer them all after a little bit of a rant here and smash the you-know-what, but let's get straight into it.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: We're seeing the yield curve disinverting, and that means very little to most people.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Right that the market is expecting more growth and therefore is shifting this weird inverted yield curve we had back.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: The inverted yield curve means that the current scenario is so freaking crazy that we think the future is going to be better.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Apparently, a Trump presidency, from a market point of view, is good for economic growth and therefore we're getting out of the fear scenario that we've been in for the last couple of years really, since inflation sort of shot up.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So this is a good thing from an investor point of view, right, and, as I said, none of this is, like you know, is it good or bad from a political point of view or whatever.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: The reality is, my friends, you're going to get a Trump president, whether you like it or not, right?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Just make peace with it and then move on in life.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: If you loathe the man, if you love the man, you know, throw a party.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: The other thing I want you to understand today is how the heck we're up $16,000 on a $30,000 teaching portfolio so far this year and we trade like less than two, three hours a week.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: You can still join our masterclass, which is kicking off tomorrow excitingly a three-day masterclass event.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: We've never done that before.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We might never do it again.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So head over to phoenixfriendsorg slash masterclass and grab yourself a free ticket.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It's three days.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's 8pm.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's a cheat sheet here, isn't it?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Down below 8pm Eastern Time, new York Time, tuesday, wednesday, thursday Come and join us.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: You're going to learn basically how I do what I do and why I do it, and I've got a few ticker symbols on here and I'm going to walk you through them because these are really, really important.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Tesla is rallying.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Why the market is weird.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Elon Musk came out and endorsed President Trump former President Trump, future President Trump, in my opinion, on Sunday was one of the first people to do so, and the markets rally Now.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: He's apparently also made a major contribution to Trump's SPAC PAC rather not SPAC PAC.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: We're going to get onto that DJT thing in a moment.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: That was before the shooting.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So while before the last week, we were thinking, well, trump's not particularly EV friendly, so we were thinking EVs and Trump are basically not exactly, you know, a love match, right, but now they are.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So they made friends, they made up and therefore it is likely that Tesla will not be treated, maybe, as hostile if that's a word, you get the idea.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Biden's been pretty hostile towards Elon, right, for whatever reasons.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So therefore, tesla is flying a pre-market at 257.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: And I believe that will continue.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I think Elon will do very well out of this.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: And Tesla and there's a lot more to Tesla than just cars, right that could potentially benefit from a more friendly regime over that.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Now, I did mention DJT.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: This is the Trump, the former Trump, spac right In my chart.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: For some reason it doesn't load.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Let me open another one.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And this is one way for Trump supporters to basically funnel money to Trump without well, while flouting campaign rules right, donation rules completely.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: So we're trading right now at $47.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: We closed on Friday at $30.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: 52% up pre-market.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty crazy.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: And that might continue until November, because lots of people want to give him money that way.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: And how does that work?
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Well, he owns most of it, so he could sell little chunks of it once his lockup period expires and that will therefore fund him very, very nicely.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Elon kissed the ring.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: He did, and he did it in very, very, very good timing.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: The man's a small head on his smart head on his shoulders.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Small caps.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Now you might be thinking, okay, small caps.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: We've had this lower interest rates trade last week.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rate expectations are good for small caps because they actually have to borrow from real banks to pay real interest rates.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Now what does a Trump presidency mean?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: A Trump presidency means Trump equals more growth, according to the market.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: It probably means less taxes and it quite possibly means more spending, although it is fairly hard to outspend the current regime in charge.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So you would think that the lower taxes and the potentially higher spending would actually mean that the Fed is more hawkish, as in they'll keep rates higher because they're worried that a lot of stimulus money is flowing into the world from the government's coffers.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: But what seems to outweigh everything is the hope for more growth, and small caps benefit from more growth.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So right now we're trading up here at the top of the Friday trading range at about $215.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So we're up significantly from yesterday.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So so far small caps are loving this.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Just keep an eye on this.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: If I was going to say Elon, if Trump promises significant spending plans and significant tax cuts, the Fed will start to turn more hawkish again.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: That will hurt small caps.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: So I've got my small cap trade still open, but I'm going to keep a fairly close eye on this one and maybe a trailing stop loss might be the way to go.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: It does seem that the Dutch have taken over our live chat.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: There is a takeover.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Good morning, jerome's.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Infrastructure and construction.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Trump promised in his last four years in office, you know, more roads and airports and everything else and bridges and all that, and they didn't achieve that much because, well, he didn't have really the majority for it.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: It looks like he might now be getting a super majority if the current state of affairs continues into November, in which case you can do whatever the heck he pleases so he could actually significantly spend on US construction.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: That will be good for anybody in that sector.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: One stock that I quite like in that sector is Caterpillar, for example.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Why they're a shovel I mean they're a literal shovel.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: They make very large shovels and they would therefore benefit from more government spending and more construction and the stock so far gapping up slightly here this morning that blue dotted line there looking very, very smug with the way the wind's blowing over the weekend.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And defense Traditionally, republicans of all shapes and sizes spend more on defense.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So you would expect anything from your Lockheed Martins to your Palantirs to the whole kind of space and maybe cybersecurity and there's an interesting story with Google coming up on that in a second.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You would expect all of these guys to take off very, very significantly.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: And if we just look at Lockheed Martin here, for example, exactly what you're seeing it's gapping up.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So you might be thinking this was just a weekend story.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: No, the market's taking this seriously.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: The market's really going.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: This is a done deal now right, it's the man in the White House who doesn't know where he is versus the guy who survived an assassination attempt and now sort of united a lot of people around himself, and I agree.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's what's going to happen here.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Trump didn't do much in the last office, it's true, but he didn't have a majority.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So if you have a majority in Congress and Senate, then you can do whatever you like.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Very few presidents ever get that opportunity.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Mostly they're haggling with the other side, at least after the first two years, because then you get your midterms.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: That screws it all up.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Crypto Trump is speaking at the largest crypto conference shortly.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: He's a bull on crypto, so the whole SEC crackdown is likely coming to an end and that will be very, very good for crypto in the whole space.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I like a bunch of stocks in this space.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I like Coinbase I've kind of always liked Coinbase and they're gapping up here massively from the what was our close, we closed at $2.18.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: We're $11 up so far this morning.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: But there is also stuff like MSTR and there's a bunch of other ones out there that would benefit similarly from this, or just Bitcoin itself, or the ETF or Ethereum, or the whole space, I think, is going to benefit similarly from this, or just Bitcoin itself, or the ETF or Ethereum, or the whole space, I think, is going to benefit significantly from this.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Now we of course also have the good old Republican trade, which is gun companies, which will likely see a surge.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: We have got private prisons, probably one of the least ethical businesses you could ever invest in.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I won't judge you for it if you do, but I'm just saying so.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: There is a CEO group, a GEO group and there is CoreCivic.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Out there, there is gun stocks like Smith Wesson and Sturm Ruger Co I don't think that's how they pronounce it, but that's where they hail from.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Ruger Co I don't think that's how they pronounce it, but that's where they hail from.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: And so if you look at Smith Wesson here, for example, what do you see?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Same story.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: We're gapping up.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: We closed there and we're now trading at almost $15.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: So we gained actually more.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: We just gained more, about 80 cents up on a $14 stock.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So huge jump there as everyone's running out and buying guns and gun legislation.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Trump flipped pro-gun lobby right when he ran last time.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: He was kind of a sort of conservative New Yorker.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: He wasn't all that comfortable with guns, you know city boy and then he realized he had to, like, get with the program if he wanted to get elected.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: That was my interpretation of it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Wanted to get elected, that was my interpretation of it, at least.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And yes, solar and renewables bye-bye, I'll feed us in.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: That's going into the dustbin because he's not really a huge fan of that.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: So the solar Invesco ETF, for example, is down $2, about 5% this morning, and I would expect that to tank some more.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Oddly enough, elon could be the savior of this, because Tesla has a large energy business and Trump might see the light on renewables.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: But I think overall this is not going to work out very, very well in the short term for solar and renewables.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: But there is a positive to the whole thing, by the way.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: What about financials?
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Well, wall Street is endorsing Trump and this will be good news for banks.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I mean anything from you know, kre, if you want to buy regional banks JP Morgan and all of those lovely, lovely, warm, fuzzy people here.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Here is JP Morgan.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: It's also up fairly significantly by JP Morgan standards $2 up here this morning.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: So good for that.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: But overall, if you just look at the morning heat map here, we see a lot of green right.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Google and Meta are seen as maybe losers under Trump.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's really true.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: It seems to be the interpretation of the morning.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: But overall a lot of green and really I think the way you're looking at it got to look at this and I'm changing some of my financial planning here because I'm going to put more money into the market because I think we're going to have four years of rally because Trump will cut taxes.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: It'll be good for business you spend a lot domestically.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: It'll be good for US businesses you put on tariffs.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: It'll be largely good for US businesses.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: There'll be some hiccups, but largely it's good for them.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Apple, for example, might have a bit of a tough time there, but some good news on Apple just.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Apple, for example, might have a bit of a tough time there, but some good news on Apple just.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: But I think overall, if you want somebody who's business friendly and really that's what he's in it for, right.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: You want someone who does well for those who've got money and capital, then this is probably going to deliver right, because it's going to be less regulation.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: It's going to be more drilling and more pipelines and more approvals and less you know environmental stuff and you know all that stuff and you might not like that, you might hate that, you might love it who cares?
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, look at your wallet and see and follow the money trail.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: That's what I always do.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So to me, politics nowadays are fairly irrelevant.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I just look at, like how is this going to affect my portfolio?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: And I see that this is.