Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 349 - 9/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 349 - 9/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 349 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Tuesday. The early portion of our week
• 0:39
  rolls on. We got a lot to get to on
• 0:41
  today's podcast as we like to do our new routine with football
• 0:45
  back in our lives. Look ahead little bit early in
• 0:48
  the week. Tuesdays are going to be our
• 0:49
  college football look ahead day. I do have an early college
• 0:52
  football Week 3 sharp report lined up for you guys, including
• 0:56
  three bets that I've already placed.
• 0:58
  They're checking off some boxes. We got good sharp line moves.
• 1:01
  What I really like is not only system plays for us, Contrarian,
• 1:04
  RLM, all the stuff we look for unranked versus ranked right up
• 1:08
  our alley, but also our friends at Rhythm have some really good
• 1:11
  edges here. A couple teams getting 3 1/2 and
• 1:14
  Rhythm has them at about A1 or A2 point dog.
• 1:17
  So stay tuned for that as we're going to talk about some college
• 1:20
  football coming up for Saturday. And then also, I told you a
• 1:24
  couple days ago, I don't want to mess around with MLB when we
• 1:26
  have football on the board. But there's nothing else to bet
• 1:28
  on today except Major League Baseball.
• 1:30
  So I'm going to dip my toe back into Major League Baseball.
• 1:33
  I do have 3 plays for you. Going to try to go 2 and 1 eke
• 1:36
  out a winning day. So an early college football
• 1:38
  sharp report and couple plays here or three of them overall
• 1:41
  that we'll talk about today. And you guys have the chance to
• 1:43
  bet them now, which I think you may want to before these hooks
• 1:46
  and key numbers leave us. And then right back to baseball
• 1:49
  with a three pack overall in MLB.
• 1:51
  Now, I buried the lead looking back to her last night, guys,
• 1:54
  frustrating, frustrating, annoying, frustrating night
• 1:58
  because the Chicago Bears. Now, before we even talk about
• 2:02
  what happened in the game, and don't get me started on what
• 2:04
  happened in the game, did you guys see where that late
• 2:06
  movement broke and what that line closed that we got Bears
• 2:09
  plus 1 1/2, They closed that basically a pick em.
• 2:13
  Some shops even closed bears -1 -, 1 1/2.
• 2:17
  So as the game's starting, and I got to give Scott Van Pelt a
• 2:19
  shout out because he is a gambler.
• 2:21
  He does know what's going on. But as they're doing the, you
• 2:24
  know, the pregame show, he said something like, yeah, for those
• 2:26
  of you who are interested in betting the game, I just noticed
• 2:29
  Chicago just flipped to a 1 1/2 point favorite.
• 2:32
  So we got plus 1 1/2. It closed pick em -1 1/2.
• 2:36
  So boom, we did our part, had a great number, got some great
• 2:39
  closing line value. Then we start watching the game.
• 2:42
  Things are looking pretty good. Caleb Williams rushes for a
• 2:44
  touchdown. There's a pick 6.
• 2:47
  The Bears are up at half time. The Bears extend their lead 17
• 2:50
  to 6 late in the fourth quarter, early in the fourth quarter, I
• 2:53
  should say. Then there's a chance for a
• 2:55
  field goal. Cairo Santos misses.
• 2:57
  It would have been a 20 to 6 game.
• 3:00
  And then after that point, nothing but the Bears completely
• 3:03
  choking. And got to give him credit, JJ
• 3:05
  McCarthy looking like a gamer. You, you guys might know the
• 3:08
  rest by now, but McCarthy, what he scored three touchdowns in
• 3:12
  the fourth quarter, threw for a couple, ran for A1 as well, and
• 3:16
  the Bears just couldn't get anything done late.
• 3:18
  I think they scored, they know they scored a touchdown late,
• 3:20
  but at one point they had scored like 3 points on offense.
• 3:23
  Again, one of them was a, a kick or a interception return for
• 3:28
  touchdown. So just a frustrating loss when
• 3:30
  you're up 17 to 6 in the fourth quarter looking good.
• 3:33
  And what really was annoying to me was Ben Johnson.
• 3:37
  It may not have made a difference, but you're supposed
• 3:39
  to be this like guru, amazing offensive minded guy.
• 3:41
  I didn't see any trick plays. And then in the final, like, you
• 3:46
  know, segment of the game, you had to kick the ball out of
• 3:49
  bounds. You could even kick it.
• 3:51
  You know, you could boot it as long as far as you want, go
• 3:54
  through the uprights, go, go into the the crowd.
• 3:56
  Or you could even kick it, you know, sideline, you know, get
• 3:58
  him at the 40. You had to save the time and
• 4:01
  what did what did you know, Mr. Mr. Guru, Mr. Offensive savant,
• 4:06
  Ben Johnson do just kicked it right, you know, a foot into the
• 4:09
  end zone guy runs it out smartly and and and killed that clock
• 4:12
  and what happened? They had no time left basically
• 4:14
  at the end. So Ben Johnson, why wouldn't you
• 4:17
  Kick It Out of the end zone? I don't get that.
• 4:19
  I I'm no like, you know, data. I'm a data-driven better, but
• 4:23
  I'm no like savant, offensive coordinator, head coach, even I
• 4:26
  know that. So it looked like to me, Ben
• 4:28
  Johnson was in over his head last night.
• 4:30
  And I got to give JJ McCarthy credit.
• 4:33
  He threw a pick six. Things were looking terrible.
• 4:35
  Kids got guts. He's got moxie.
• 4:37
  Iconic. Became a JJ McCarthy believer,
• 4:39
  even though I was super annoyed and lost my bet.
• 4:42
  But what are you going to do? We made a great play with the
• 4:44
  Bears. Couldn't cash though.
• 4:46
  They blew it and choked for us. So Owen, 1 - 1 unit last night.
• 4:50
  But I can tell you what guys, we got our finger on the pulse of
• 4:53
  the NFL and even kind of a gross loss like that, like that last
• 4:56
  night, we're getting good numbers, getting CLV.
• 4:58
  So it tells me we are on the right track.
• 5:01
  So with that being said, let's start off with some college
• 5:04
  football because as I mentioned to start the pod, you know,
• 5:07
  Mondays are going to be obviously Monday Night Football.
• 5:10
  Tuesdays are going to be a look at for college on the upcoming
• 5:13
  Saturday. Tomorrow I'm going to have the
• 5:15
  NFL sharp report for you. And then Thursday, obviously
• 5:18
  Thursday Night Football, Friday will get college, yadda, yadda,
• 5:20
  yadda. So this is going to be our
• 5:21
  routine throughout the year and the whole idea is to get good
• 5:25
  numbers early in the week, try to get hooks, try to get key
• 5:27
  numbers, try to bet something on a Tuesday.
• 5:30
  By the time Saturday rolls around, you know you're beating
• 5:33
  the closing line. That is the ultimate goal.
• 5:35
  So I landed on three games that caught my eye for this upcoming
• 5:37
  weekend. First one I want to talk about
• 5:39
  is Georgia and Tennessee. This is a huge heavily bet game,
• 5:44
  the most heavily bet game of the weekend.
• 5:45
  It's 3:30 on Saturday. I've seen a ton of sharp line
• 5:48
  movement here. I'll tell you what I'm doing for
• 5:50
  this one. Setting the stage.
• 5:51
  Georgia 2 and O ranked 6th in the country, just brushed aside
• 5:55
  poor little Austin P 28 to 6. Although Austin P covered,
• 5:59
  they're plus 46 1/2 on the road and Georgia could not cover that
• 6:02
  number. Tennessee 2 and O ranked 15th,
• 6:05
  so also a good team. They just crushed East Tennessee
• 6:08
  State 72 to 17 covered as a 39 1/2 point home favorite.
• 6:12
  So what do you see across the board here?
• 6:14
  Well, this game opened Georgia. Georgia as high as a 7 1/2 point
• 6:19
  Rd. favorite. Now, as soon as that line came
• 6:21
  out, wise guys said that line is way too high.
• 6:24
  Hammered Tennessee plus 7 1/2, seven, six and a half, 65 and a
• 6:28
  half five guys. We were all the way down to
• 6:31
  Tennessee getting 3 1/2. So a huge adjustment.
• 6:34
  And you got to remember these games are being bet early in the
• 6:36
  week, not by, you know, recreational betters.
• 6:38
  We got to go to work, but by wise guys who have their numbers
• 6:41
  ready to go and they're going to play a discrepancy between what
• 6:43
  their numbers say and what the odds makers are offering.
• 6:46
  So nothing but sharp movement in favor of Tennessee.
• 6:49
  I jumped on Tennessee plus 3 1/2.
• 6:51
  I wanted to make sure I got the hook because they lose by three.
• 6:53
  We got to cover that. But Volunteers have really good
• 6:56
  bet against the public value. They're one of your notable
• 6:58
  contrarian plays this weekend at DraftKings, they're only getting
• 7:01
  around 40% of tickets and heavily bet.
• 7:04
  Not a prime time game, it's late afternoon, 3:30.
• 7:07
  But if you look at Circa, this really jumped out to me at
• 7:09
  Circo, the Volunteers only getting 31% of spread bets, but
• 7:13
  73% of spread dollars. A really good low bets higher
• 7:17
  dollar split telling us the wise guys out in Vegas are taking the
• 7:20
  points of Tennessee. Now the Volunteers have got got
• 7:22
  sharp RLM contrarian play. They also have a system value
• 7:26
  play as a conference dog. So built in familiarity levels,
• 7:29
  the playing field benefits the team getting points.
• 7:32
  We have seen this total dip a bit.
• 7:33
  It was 51. It's down to around 49 1/2 And
• 7:35
  you got some good splits on the under.
• 7:38
  But I'm taking the points of Tennessee and you could say to
• 7:40
  yourself, hey, this game opened Tennessee getting 7 1/2.
• 7:43
  It's down to 3 1/2, you know, Should I wait?
• 7:46
  Will this creep back up to 4, four and a half?
• 7:48
  I'm not sure. The juice is pretty much -110
• 7:51
  both sides. So I wanted to make sure I at
• 7:53
  least got the hook. But this might make you feel a
• 7:55
  little better. I popped open rhythm again.
• 7:57
  Got to go. Go download the Rhythm app and
• 7:59
  tune into our Thursday Rhythm Rundown show stream live on
• 8:02
  Twitter. But I have two models on
• 8:04
  Tennessee. One is Tennessee plus 1.21 is
• 8:08
  Tennessee plus 0.8. So even though we missed a good,
• 8:12
  you know, I would have loved to have gotten a 7 1/2.
• 8:13
  Boy, are you sitting pretty right now.
• 8:15
  But rhythm's got a basically a one point game and we're still
• 8:18
  contrarian. Sharp line move splits, system
• 8:21
  matches getting a 3 1/2. So it's early in the week, but I
• 8:24
  already put in today Tennessee plus 3 1/2.
• 8:27
  And reminder, any plays that I make you can always get
• 8:30
  immediately by signing up to get the $4.99 a week.
• 8:33
  Best bets on the juicer lap Next game that caught my eye.
• 8:38
  Let's look at another game that looks very similar.
• 8:39
  If you like Tennessee, I think you like Georgia Tech.
• 8:42
  There's a noon game coming up on Saturday.
• 8:45
  Let's set the stage for this one.
• 8:46
  Clemson one and one on the year. They're ranked 12th overall.
• 8:49
  Just dismissed Troy 27 to 16 didn't cover though as a 30 1/2
• 8:54
  point home favorite. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech 2 and O
• 8:57
  unranked, but just dominated. Gardner Webb 59 to 12 cruised as
• 9:01
  a 37 1/2 point home favorite. So what do we see across the
• 9:04
  market here? Well, Clemson opened around a
• 9:06
  six point Rd. favorite and the public is saying Clemson, yeah,
• 9:10
  you lost your opener. Don't remind me.
• 9:12
  I had them money line against LSU and they're up at halftime.
• 9:15
  Remind me of the Bears last night.
• 9:16
  Da Bears. I still can't get over that.
• 9:18
  But anyway, 2/3 of bets are laying it with Clemson, even
• 9:22
  though they're one and one and Georgia Tech's two and O Clemson
• 9:24
  bigger name school ranked team obviously.
• 9:27
  So even though you're getting 2/3 of bets on Clemson, line
• 9:30
  isn't up to Clemson -7 line is down and down pretty
• 9:34
  considerably in favor of Georgia Tech.
• 9:36
  We've gone from Georgia Tech +6 now to Georgia Tech plus 3 1/2
• 9:40
  and you are seeing some books juice of Georgia Tech plus 3 1/2
• 9:43
  -. 115 like may even get down to 3.
• 9:46
  So I wanted to jump on Georgia Tech and make sure I got the
• 9:49
  hook. So I did get Georgia Tech plus 3
• 9:51
  1/2. Georgia Tech at DraftKings only
• 9:54
  34% of spread bets 49% of spread dollars at at Circa 50% of bets,
• 10:00
  59% of spread dollars. So low bets higher dollars on
• 10:04
  Georgia Tech at both DraftKings and Circa, which aligns with
• 10:06
  that sharp line move in their favor.
• 10:09
  Yellow Jackets also have what we love to see a buy low unranked
• 10:13
  team against the sell high ranked opponent.
• 10:15
  Remember when you're bending college football that ranking a
• 10:18
  little one or two digit number, it has a huge influence on what
• 10:21
  the public wants to do. Automatically public will go
• 10:23
  toward the ranked team or the higher ranked team, and if it's
• 10:26
  ranked versus unranked, they're automatically going to take that
• 10:28
  ranked team, in particular unranked teams against ranked
• 10:31
  opponents. There's seventeen and eight
• 10:34
  against the spread. 68 percent, 30% ROI.
• 10:37
  Great start. Unranked first ranked this year
• 10:40
  and since the start of last year, they're 128 and one O 3
• 10:43
  ATS 55 percent, 6% ROI. So in addition to all those
• 10:48
  factors, line move splits, system matches, contrarian on
• 10:52
  ranked, first ranked Georgia Tech also is a conference dog.
• 10:55
  Couple ACC teams built in familiarity, levels of playing
• 10:58
  field, benefits of team getting points.
• 11:00
  So I'm riding the yellow Jackets plus 3 1/2 and oh by the way,
• 11:04
  pop open rhythm. You're going to love this.
• 11:07
  We got 2 models, Georgia Tech plus 2.4, Georgia Tech plus 1.7.
• 11:12
  So basically a two round A2 point game basically.
• 11:15
  And we're we're still able to get a 3 1/2.
• 11:17
  So I'm playing Georgia Tech plus 3 1/2 last early game for you
• 11:22
  that I played Vandy at South Carolina.
• 11:25
  So what have we seen across the board for this one?
• 11:28
  Well this game set the stage for this one.
• 11:30
  Vanderbilt 2 and O just upset Vatek 44 to 20 easily covered
• 11:35
  and one outright as a 2 1/2 point Rd. dog.
• 11:38
  Meanwhile the Cox 2 and O ranked 11th off to a Goodyear.
• 11:41
  Lenore Sellers is up in that Heisman race they just took down
• 11:44
  South Carolina State 38 to 10. Did not cover though as a 42 1/2
• 11:48
  point home favorite. So what do you see across the
• 11:50
  market here? Well, this game open, South
• 11:52
  Carolina listed around A7 point home favorite and the public is
• 11:56
  saying give me South Carolina all day.
• 11:58
  Sellers is a big Heisman candidate.
• 12:00
  They're at home. They're ranked 11th and
• 12:03
  Vanderbilt's unranked. So you're getting right now 71%
• 12:07
  of spread bets laying it with South Carolina.
• 12:10
  However, South Carolina opened laying 7.
• 12:14
  The line is now down to 5 1/2. I am actually seeing some books
• 12:17
  get down to 5 or 4 1/2. So I did put in Vanderbilt plus
• 12:21
  5 1/2 and I was like oh should I wait?
• 12:22
  Will it go back up to six? I'm pretty happy I got the 5 1/2
• 12:25
  because it looks like it is falling down to 5 or even 4 1/2.
• 12:28
  So again, shop around and hint hint you'll get these plays if
• 12:32
  you get the $4.99 a week. Best bets on on juice rail.
• 12:36
  But anyway, line is moving toward Vandy even though Publix
• 12:39
  all over the Cox. So what does that tell us?
• 12:42
  Sharp reverse line movement in favor of Vanderbilt.
• 12:45
  Vanderbilt getting less than 1/3 of tickets and a heavily bet
• 12:49
  primetime game 7:45 PM on Saturday night.
• 12:52
  I'm actually going to a wedding. My buddy Lars is getting
• 12:55
  married. It's his second marriage so for
• 12:56
  this one works out better than the first.
• 12:58
  He got married when he was high school sweetheart when we were
• 13:00
  like 23 and got divorced a couple years later.
• 13:03
  But his his new wife way better. But hopefully we'll be sweating
• 13:06
  this one at the wedding somehow on Saturday.
• 13:09
  But anyway, low bets, higher dollars, 29% bets, 45% dollars
• 13:13
  at DK at Circa, 57% bets. Get a load of this 98% of spread
• 13:18
  dollars at Circa, as well as a unranked first ranked and a
• 13:23
  conference dog all matching with Vandy.
• 13:26
  So I'm playing Vandy here guys. Public South Carolina lines
• 13:29
  going to Vandy. I got Vandy plus 5 1/2.
• 13:32
  Now it's not a huge rhythm edge Rhythm has plus 5.8, so it's not
• 13:36
  like rhythm has a four point game, but at least it's not like
• 13:38
  6.87 point 8. So you're kind of close to the
• 13:40
  number. Again, this is moving as I'm
• 13:43
  doing the pod and like literally staring at my live odds page.
• 13:46
  I just saw some books go down to 5 even 4 1/2.
• 13:48
  So try to find a book still hanging in the 5 1/2 if you can.
• 13:51
  But Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Vandy seeing if hopefully we can
• 13:55
  get two out of three this upcoming Saturday.
• 13:58
  Now I wanted to mention mention one bet in the NFL because
• 14:02
  tomorrow we're going to talk a lot of early NFL bets, but one I
• 14:06
  did play officially as I took The Jets.
• 14:09
  Jets are at home against Buffalo and the public.
• 14:13
  Let me just pull this up here. Get the latest stats.
• 14:16
  Buffalo open as high as like an 8 point favorite, 7 1/2 point
• 14:19
  favorite. You're now seeing this line down
• 14:21
  to 7 or even 6 1/2 and the public is still going.
• 14:25
  Bills 69% of bets. But at DraftKings 31% bets 48%
• 14:30
  dollars on The Jets and at circa 79% dollars.
• 14:34
  Nine, sorry, 79% bets, 99% dollars on The Jets.
• 14:39
  So I got Jets +7. Shop around.
• 14:41
  There are a couple sevens, but there are some 6 and a halfs out
• 14:44
  there. They're a divisional dog.
• 14:46
  Keep an eye on this system. A Week 2 dog off a loss.
• 14:48
  They're covering 57% of the time over the last I think since
• 14:52
  2020. Dogs getting 6 1/2 or more since
• 14:55
  2022 are 56% ATS. So I am, I did play The Jets +7
• 15:01
  and I'll probably have a couple more for you because there's
• 15:03
  some games here I'm looking at this weekend that are catching
• 15:06
  my eyeball. We'll keep that.
• 15:07
  I just want to mention that one because that was, I already
• 15:09
  played it. And again, if you like it in the
• 15:11
  sevens available Jets +7. That looked pretty sharp to me.
• 15:15
  But we'll talk more NFL tomorrow.
• 15:17
  Now let's say a prayer to the baseball gods.
• 15:19
  Baseball, we've been sweating you all year.
• 15:21
  We've been having a pretty good year.
• 15:23
  It's tailed off, I would say the last couple weeks because the
• 15:25
  volatility, the craziness has been frustrating.
• 15:28
  So we shifted a lot of our bankroll to football has been a
• 15:31
  good decision, but there's nothing else to swept but
• 15:33
  baseball tonight. So we're getting back to the
• 15:35
  diamond. Baseball gods, can you please
• 15:38
  treat us right tonight? Can we get 2 out of three?
• 15:40
  Amen. So 3 plays for you.
• 15:43
  First one on the board for me is an early game, 6:35 PM Eastern
• 15:47
  Time, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles.
• 15:51
  Now going into it, we have the buckos 64 and 80 on the year.
• 15:55
  Just got swept at home against Milwaukee, the Orioles 66 and 77
• 16:00
  on the year. Believe it or not, they just
• 16:01
  took two out of three against the dodgers and they swept the
• 16:04
  Padres as well. So they're playing pretty decent
• 16:06
  recently now pitching match up we got Mike Burrows righty going
• 16:11
  for the bucco's he's two and four four point O 8 ERA Kyle
• 16:15
  Bradish fellow righty going for the OS he's O and one 3.6 O ERA.
• 16:20
  Now what are we seeing across the market?
• 16:22
  Well, Baltimore opened at most shops around a -, 145 -, 150
• 16:27
  favorite. We've now seen the OS get up to
• 16:29
  around -155 some good splits here on the Orioles.
• 16:33
  Around 70% bets, nearly 80% dollars on Baltimore.
• 16:37
  Along with that line move, I jumped on Baltimore -150 at Bet
• 16:41
  MGM. So that is your best number
• 16:43
  right now. If you want to sweat the OS of
• 16:44
  me, I do have some system matches here.
• 16:47
  One will be a classic interleague favorite.
• 16:49
  Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
• 16:52
  You're also a correlative favorite low total total.
• 16:54
  This one open at 8 1/2. It's down to 8.
• 16:57
  So line moving toward the favorite Baltimore total
• 16:59
  dropping. Hopefully that means a, you
• 17:01
  know, six to six to one Orioles win something like that or 4 to
• 17:05
  4 to 1 four and often I don't care, just go O's.
• 17:08
  But you also have in addition to interleague favorite favorite
• 17:10
  low total. I have a system match here.
• 17:12
  Both had the day off. Take the home favorite.
• 17:15
  That system is 85 and 48 this year, 64% with a 3% ROI.
• 17:20
  Hopefully the Orioles offense will come to play.
• 17:23
  They've had the better bats overall this year compared to
• 17:25
  the Pirates. They're hitting two 41172 home
• 17:29
  runs, 620 runs scored. You look at the Buckos hitting
• 17:33
  two 33102 homers, 522 runs scored, and the Orioles haven't
• 17:38
  been, you know, again, been a bit of a down year.
• 17:40
  They've turned, they've turned it on in the second-half.
• 17:42
  But they're 33 and 38 at home. Not great, but on the road the
• 17:47
  Pirates are 22 and 47. That is the second worst home
• 17:51
  Rd. record, I should say, in baseball.
• 17:54
  So we had a little bit of movement.
• 17:55
  We got some splits, some system matches, favorite low total,
• 17:59
  better bats, fade, a bad Rd. team.
• 18:01
  I'm going to take a shot on the O's tonight.
• 18:03
  I got Baltimore -150 at Bet MGM. Next one for you, 7 O 5:00 PM
• 18:10
  Eastern Time, the Detroit Tigers visiting the New York Yankees.
• 18:14
  Now it's set the stage for this one.
• 18:16
  We got Detroit coming in 82 and 62 on the year.
• 18:20
  They did, however, just drop two or three against the White Sox.
• 18:23
  You know, the Yankees, the Yankees 80 and 63 on the year,
• 18:26
  just took two or three against the Jays.
• 18:30
  So pitching match match up for this one.
• 18:32
  We have Casey Mize, the righty going for Detroit.
• 18:35
  He's 13 and five, 3.87 ERA. Will Warren, the righty going
• 18:40
  for New York, he is on the year 8 and six, 4.28 ERA.
• 18:44
  What have we seen across the market?
• 18:46
  Well, nothing but movement told the Yankees.
• 18:49
  I got the Yankees here, guys. I got Yankees -156 at FanDuel.
• 18:53
  They open as low as -145. They are as high as -160 at some
• 18:58
  shop. So again, FanDuel -156 looks to
• 19:01
  be the best price. You look at the splits right now
• 19:03
  at Circa, only 38% bets, but 52% of the dollars on the Yankees.
• 19:09
  So good low bets, higher dollar split.
• 19:11
  I got a lot of system matches on New York.
• 19:13
  If you look at rested favorites coming off a day off, they're 74
• 19:18
  and 3667 percent, 6% ROI. Both have the day off.
• 19:22
  Take the home favorite that just matched with Baltimore, 64
• 19:25
  percent, 3% ROI. Home favorite made the
• 19:27
  postseason, opponent did not. That's nearly 60% this season.
• 19:32
  And home fave made the postseason off a win line move.
• 19:37
  That's kind of a wordy system for me.
• 19:39
  That's 64% this season. So a bunch of systems here
• 19:42
  lighting up on the Yankees. I want to make back Warren, I
• 19:47
  should say. He's giving up two earned runs
• 19:48
  or less and nine of his last 11 starts at home. 3.3 OERA on the
• 19:54
  road, 5.43, But he's at home tonight and at night. 3.44 ERA,
• 19:59
  6 point O 9 in the day. It's a night game.
• 20:02
  Flip it the other way. Casey Mize, 4.26 ERA on the road
• 20:06
  versus 3.47 at home. He's on the road here.
• 20:09
  And in the day 3.34 ERA, but at night 4.34.
• 20:13
  So Warren's been better at home and at night.
• 20:16
  Mice has been worse on the road and at night.
• 20:19
  So hopefully there's a good spot to back Warren.
• 20:22
  Non division favorite. A lot of those system matches
• 20:24
  that I mentioned. Hopefully the offense of New
• 20:27
  York can light up Casey Mize. They've hit 243 home runs,
• 20:31
  scored 749 runs. Tigers have hit 180 home runs,
• 20:35
  scored 695 runs. But some movement toward the
• 20:38
  Yankees, really good splits at Circa, some good angles here to
• 20:41
  back Warren over my's system matches non division favorite as
• 20:45
  well as the better bats. So I'm taking a shot on the
• 20:47
  Yankees. I got New York -156 at FanDuel,
• 20:52
  last bat of the night. Who wants to stay up late?
• 20:54
  Let's go to the West Coast. 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 20:58
  The Reds visiting the San Diego Fathers.
• 21:01
  Now coming into this one, we have the Cincinnati Red Legs, 72
• 21:06
  and 72 on the year. They just lost to San Diego.
• 21:10
  The opener was last night. San Diego won four to three.
• 21:13
  Padres meanwhile, 79 and 65, they had struggled a bit.
• 21:16
  They've now won I think three straight.
• 21:19
  But the pitching matchup is interesting to me because we got
• 21:21
  Zach Litelle, the righty going for the Reds.
• 21:24
  He is 9 and eight, 3.81 ERA against Michael King, the righty
• 21:29
  for the pods, four and two, 2.81 ERA.
• 21:32
  And Michael King, really good pitcher, but he's been injured a
• 21:34
  lot this year. He's coming off the injury list
• 21:37
  to make this start. Now what are we seen across the
• 21:39
  market? Nothing but steam on the
• 21:42
  fathers. The last time the fathers are in
• 21:44
  the spot, it was a guy to think distinctly.
• 21:46
  Remember his last week? It was against Baltimore.
• 21:48
  They went from like -170 to -190 they end up losing because a
• 21:53
  freaking Nestor Cortez. Don't get me started.
• 21:55
  So same spot. The dads owe us a win here.
• 21:58
  So for tonight, San Diego open, same thing around -170 then
• 22:02
  Valve and bet up to around -190 some shops even -195 at circa
• 22:08
  78% bets, 99% of the money is on San Diego.
• 22:12
  I got San Diego -190 at Caesar's, so shop around, try to
• 22:15
  find that best price. I do want to back King.
• 22:18
  I know it's a bit of a wild card because he's coming off the
• 22:20
  injured list, but at home he's been good. 2.45 ERA, 3.63 on the
• 22:24
  road. And Zach Litell, I believe he's
• 22:27
  made six starts with Cincinnati, but he's owed 4 in his last
• 22:30
  four. You would match with San Diego a
• 22:33
  non division favorite as well as a correlative betting favorite.
• 22:36
  Low total told this one has fallen 8 down to 7 1/2 tells us
• 22:40
  some smart money under as well as the mutt line moving towards
• 22:43
  San Diego. So this is a you know 4 to 1
• 22:45
  type win hopefully for San Diego and then home Rd. since the only
• 22:49
  32 and 38 on the road. Padres 44 and 25 at home.
• 22:54
  So pods owe us a victory again. I remember that Cortez game
• 22:58
  because I was like, I got to get a haircut and I had to wait
• 23:00
  forever. I was just watching that game,
• 23:02
  my phone and Cortez gave up like six runs in the first inning or
• 23:04
  something. So they owe US1.
• 23:06
  Come on dads, late night sweat. I got the pods -190 So Orioles,
• 23:12
  Yankees, Padres, dear God, betting gods, can we get 2 out
• 23:16
  of three? You got a winning day.
• 23:17
  That is the goal. So that about does it for
• 23:20
  episode 349 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 23:24
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 23:26
  where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
• 23:30
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day.
• 23:31
  You right there listening. I appreciate you.
• 23:33
  Thank you. I know you got a lot going on
• 23:36
  busy time of year school's back in session football.
• 23:38
  Obviously we're all excited about, but the fact you guys
• 23:41
  TuneIn listen grind out plays with me.
• 23:43
  It means the world to me. So thank you for for listening
• 23:46
  and supporting the pod. If you wouldn't mind giving it a
• 23:48
  five star review and Spotify or iTunes leave a nice comment, hit
• 23:52
  the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend.
• 23:55
  I would very much appreciate that as well.
• 23:58
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting data-driven, sharp
• 24:01
  contrarian betting focusing on numbers, line movement, split
• 24:05
  system matches, not betting games based on what our heart
• 24:08
  and our, you know, our, our biases are telling us no, we're
• 24:12
  going off the the data, not the biases.
• 24:14
  But if this style of betting has appealed to you, you've seen
• 24:17
  some of the fruits of your labor, you're starting to beat
• 24:19
  closing lines and win some games.
• 24:20
  You can now have a blueprint to to really hone in on well, if
• 24:24
  you'd like to let me know you appreciate the pod as well as
• 24:26
  learn more. Or maybe you'll have someone in
• 24:28
  your life who you know parlays everything and really needs to
• 24:32
  have an approach to betting that makes sense and it is consistent
• 24:35
  long term. If you wouldn't mind going to
• 24:37
  Amazon.com and typing in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or my
• 24:42
  first book, the Everything Guide to Sports betting, grab one or
• 24:45
  the other on Amazon. I'll sign them for you.
• 24:47
  I'll buy you a beer to bring them the sports book.
• 24:49
  Keep keep tweeting me your photos of the new my new book,
• 24:52
  the NFL sharp betting playbook. I love when I see them.
• 24:55
  I love to retweet it. And if you wouldn't mind giving
• 24:57
  it a five star review and a nice comment in the apps in Amazon, I
• 25:01
  should say that'll make sure we remain.
• 25:04
  I should say, because we're still #1 new gambling release
• 25:08
  next. Have you downloaded rhythm and
• 25:09
  juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
• 25:11
  you waiting for? Rhythm great for their AI backed
• 25:13
  models and predictions for game bets and player pops.
• 25:16
  You can use the promo code start 25 for 25% off and Juice reel
• 25:21
  Juice Reel has a bunch of great, you know, opportunities and
• 25:26
  great features to take advantage of.
• 25:28
  I'll mention this podcast is free.
• 25:30
  It costs you nothing to listen. These insights are all free.
• 25:33
  If you'd like to support the pod, please would you sign up to
• 25:36
  get those all systems go official best bet picks on the
• 25:38
  Juice Reel app. It costs $4.99 a week.
• 25:42
  Support the team. You'll get a week's worth of
• 25:44
  plays for less than 5 bucks. That's pretty darn good.
• 25:47
  You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
• 25:49
  indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
• 25:52
  features, all located in the Juice Reel app.
• 25:55
  So download rhythm, download Juice Reel and you'll be off and
• 25:58
  running with two great apps. Betting betting data-driven apps
• 26:01
  to add to your betting toolkit. Next you have a live odds page.
• 26:05
  Well if you don't, you need one, You got to go to
• 26:07
  oddslogic.com/josh 123 for a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
• 26:13
  first month of service. You got to be able to track the
• 26:16
  market, look at line movement, what it open at, what is it now?
• 26:19
  Identify Steam live in game wagering odds shop for the best
• 26:22
  price. You can do it all with odds
• 26:24
  logic. So again, odds logic.com/josh
• 26:27
  123 next as I incorporate this into my final spiel.
• 26:32
  Don't bet against the house because the sports books, they
• 26:35
  make money hand hand over fist. Bet against fellow betters by
• 26:38
  joining Novig instead of it operates like a sports book, but
• 26:41
  it's not a sports book. It's a betting exchange where
• 26:44
  you are betting against other betters and not the house.
• 26:47
  So other betters either win or lose instead of the house raking
• 26:50
  in all the money. But I have a pinned tweet on my
• 26:52
  profile at Josh under score insights.
• 26:55
  If you sign up, you can use promo code Josh 123 or just
• 26:58
  click that link and that pinned tweet on my Twitter profile and
• 27:02
  you'll get a twenty 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks.
• 27:05
  So if you put 25 bucks into Novig where you can get better
• 27:08
  odds and you won't get limited, if you win, you'll get another
• 27:11
  25 bucks. So we get 50.
• 27:13
  So that about does it for episode 349 of the ASG pod, as
• 27:17
  always, powered by Rhythm. Two final thoughts.
• 27:20
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 27:22
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 27:24
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
• 27:27
  Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the
• 27:30
  Nash and My Neck of the Woods in New England.
• 27:33
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 27:35
  down. Or Billy Walters sends his
• 27:37
  number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
• 27:39
  South Point. Or Sweat and Sharp can train
• 27:41
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 27:44
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
• 27:46
  to me and you're going to show me a Bears plus 1 1/2 ticket.
• 27:49
  We did our part, guys. The line close, pick them or
• 27:52
  even bears -1 1/2. So we did our part, but the
• 27:55
  freaking Bears. Pathetic.
• 27:57
  That Caleb Williams, man, I don't know.
• 27:59
  Jerry's out on him. JJ McCarthy's a dog.
• 28:01
  Kevin O'connell's a smart coach Flores defense was ferocious,
• 28:05
  but man, you could have been up 20 to 6 and you really gassed
• 28:09
  that that game away. Instead, you blow it.
• 28:11
  So that was a tough one last night.
• 28:13
  So show me a Bears ticket. We love our CLV, but RIP that
• 28:17
  thing up, recycle it. We'll get the next one, don't
• 28:19
  worry. But as always, guys, O, 111 and
• 28:21
  O off. A great night, terrible night,
• 28:24
  mediocre night. Whether we're hot, whether we're
• 28:26
  cold, we just got to keep grinding.
• 28:28
  Stick to the model in the blueprint and as of now, you
• 28:30
  know what it might be. It goes a little something like
• 28:32
  this. Look for games that fit our
• 28:34
  model against the house or sorry, against the public with
• 28:37
  the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
• 28:40
  closing line value. If we can do that long term,
• 28:43
  we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 28:45
  So have a great Tuesday night, everybody.
• 28:47
  Be right back at it tomorrow for a big hump day.
• 28:50
  Wednesday edition episode 350. Big, big fat round Number
• 28:54
  episode 350 of the All Systems Go Sorts Betting podcast powered
• 28:59
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and I'll
• 29:00
  see you tomorrow on the ASG pod. Good luck.