Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - I have exciting (and terrible) news + Stock Market News 19 July 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - I have exciting (and terrible) news + Stock Market News 19 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I finally managed to actually get online and, yes, today is the day where we've had the largest IT outage in the history of the world, and some of it affected financial markets.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: The UK, for example, delayed sales of government debt.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Pretty significant stuff happening today Major number of planes being downed today Not downed, but having to land because the airport system's not working.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We need to explore that.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Crowdstrike is at the heart of that.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: The stock's down massively.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Microsoft is also at the heart of that.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: The stock is also down somewhat.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: But we also have some good news.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't feel like freaking out like a lot of people right now because it's a popular thing to do.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It'll get you a few more clicks, but no, actually that's what we want to do.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure you are the best informed investor out there, and I also have something incredibly exciting to share with you, which I think you're going to like a lot.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So stick around, I'll share with you in just a moment.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So here, bloomberg, reporting that airlines banks on the stock exchange um, you know, basically down.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Microsoft reported several problems with cloud services and crowd strike was at the heart of that.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: This wasn't an attack apparently.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Apparently it was some sort of update bug.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Uh, whether or not that's true, who knows but a lot of people offline today.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Flight OS says 16,000 flights were delayed, but 1,000 in the US and United's resuming some flights.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Airports in the US were closed or severely constrained at Boston, new York, laguardia, las Vegas, sacramento and some others.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So pretty major interruption there.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: And if you look at how the market takes it, pre-market, we're not looking too bad.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: But have a look at CrowdStrike Stock I quite like, usually down 12%, opportunity or disaster.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: And then we have Microsoft here also, trading at 434.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, we closed at 449.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Four Yesterday we closed at 449.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So pretty hideous beginning for Microsoft here today because Azure being majorly down.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And there's an interesting tweet I thought I'd share it.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Probably better not to read it out because you know, probably get the video taken down or something you wouldn't want to offend.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Now the mighty bill, would you?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think there might be something in that.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It's not necessarily in that, but just that there is a heck of a lot of power in the hands of three or four companies now right, and they can literally bring the world to a standstill.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Now there is some positive in that and that's think about it.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: What a company is going to do now?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: They're going to adopt a multi-cloud strategy.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: If you are like JP Morgan or someone you apparently had employees who couldn't log in, you're going to duplicate your systems across two or three companies.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And who helps with that?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, palantir, exactly, computing just got a lot more expensive and a lot more complicated, because you need backup.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: You need backup for the online backup because you can't really rely on Microsoft to keep you online right, which is, yeah, you know where we are.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: This is the number I want you to write down.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: According to Bank of America CTAs, the algo funds will sell below 5,488 points.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Now, where are we trading right now?
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Spx obviously doesn't trade pre-market, but we were at 5,544 yesterday, so still got a fair way to go.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Therefore, I don't think this is panic station.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I think this is, as always be a little cautious.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Take some risk off, which we already did.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: If you look at our portfolio, we haven't got a lot on.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Actually, we took profits on all of our IDWM trades, energy trades up, vix trades up, and then SPY and PayPal.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe we'll close that SPY trade today.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Just take a $100, $200 loss there, just to be a little bit on the cautious side.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Always good to be on the cautious side.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: We are all the way, by the way, up $24,000 now for this year, which is not too bad, right?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So this is $24,000 profit on a $30,000 portfolio.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Do you think I should take the rest of the year off?
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Probably right.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So doing quite nicely there, and I appreciate.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Three and a half thousand of you signed up for the masterclass over the last three days, which is super cool.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I love how many of you want to learn how these things really work.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: But let's get into a little bit more stock-specific news and then I'll share with you some real excitement that I think you are going to like.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Of course, on that note also, feel free to like the video if you like.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: 59 likes, tough crowd.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Hey, 500 people haven't liked this video.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Still here, netflix is not doing a lot, so they have pretty good earnings.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Actually, if you ask me, I thought the numbers were pretty good, so higher sales and profit margin.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: But they said the company's subscriber gains will trail last year's, and third quarter outlook was slightly weaker than expected, and the market doesn't like slightly weaker than expected.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: It went Now one percentage point up.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: It's been a bit of a wild ride on Netflix earnings, but that's okay.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: That's okay.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: That's a kind of a first big tech hurdle past market not moving a lot.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what we want.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: We just want it to not move a lot.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: We're very happy, of course, if it goes up a lot, it'd be nice, but we don't really need it.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: We just want to make sure it doesn't drop 20% like it has done in the past.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So it could be a good sign for the earnings season that people are going oh, that's okay, I can deal with that.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I can live with that.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Lynn Winton says Barclays invest account not working at the moment.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I have a position in Carlsberg so I can't do anything about it.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Can you make a claim against Barclays?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I can try.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I can try.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you're going to get very far.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I imagine terms and conditions probably cover them, but you can try.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Not really one of those militant claims type people.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I just sort of go okay, nevermind, but yeah, if you lose a significant amount of money, you might be able to.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Sure, now there is some good news, and I threatened some good news, didn't I?
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: On a day like this, we need some good news.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So Fed's Governor, christopher Waller, which I think is a great name, says I do believe we're getting closer to the time when a cut in policy rate is warranted.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: How many people do you know who used the word warranted?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: The labor market is in a sweet spot, he said, but the Fed needs to keep it there.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: There is more upside risk to unemployment than we have seen for a long time.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: This is like yay, freaking breakouts are coming.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: They really are coming.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: They really are coming.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: And then we've got San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said we don't want to be to a point where we start to see the labor market weaken substantially, to falter, because by then it is actually often too late to bring it back.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So she's also worried about you losing your job.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: That's lovely, because that means they're going to cut rates.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: So rate cuts, I think, are very, very much alive for September, which is brilliant.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Stream stopped again.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Seriously, what's going on there?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I'm actually streaming today live directly to YouTube.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Normally, I use a little thing so we can stream to Twitter and everything else.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: There seems to be something funky going on there, and ads are running during the live stream as well.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Really, you also have that turned off, so weird.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Anyway, we'll, we'll figure it out, we'll figure it out.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It's a bit weird.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So this is basically the summary of why we're gonna get rate cuts right.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: You're starting to see a trend here of unemployment moving up.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Job openings have come down from about 12 million to now about 8 million.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty significant drop.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: The average hourly earnings, the increase in wages, has come down.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Non-farm payroll even though it's ridiculously manipulated, it's still coming down.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So there are a lot of reasons why you might want to cut interest rates at this point.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So it looks pretty good.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So, therefore, the party in small caps and growth stocks and so on should continue.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: And yesterday was a pretty significant sales day, one of the bigger ones we've seen in quite a few years, and most of the time when you get these big sell-offs here, people actually buy the fricking dip afterwards.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying you typically hear in there and here you get people buying back in.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: At the moment I'm still feeling pretty good about it, but then I have already, like a day or two ago, we took a lot of risk off.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Because we take profits.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: We've got rules on that.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: We take profits and we make money.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Down the stream bit break again.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Weird, very weird.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know why it does that.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I might have to ask YouTube on that.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: And here is the chart to scare you.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: So the NASDAQ does these great big drops here.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: This is QQQ, and it basically drops.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: This was a what?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: 92% drop.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: This was a 92% drop.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: This was a 54% drop.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: This was 2008,.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, then we had slightly cut off, isn't it?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: This is 2018.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: We had a 50% drop.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: We had the 65% drop here, covid, we have these very, very significant drops.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: So don't expect this thing to go up in a straight line and if you're not prepared for that, don't bloody own growth stocks and QQQ.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: You need to be happy to hold through a 50% decline fairly regularly.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: If you're not, get the heck out of growth stocks Seriously Because you're going to lose money, you might as well just hand the money over to those happy bankers in midtown.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Now let me then tell you something that I'm I mean something really exciting.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I'm really really really exciting.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Stream's fine there.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant, appreciate that, guys.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: This is, of course, a Tesla stock chart.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: And then you've got these little green and red things in the background, right, and these little green and black things in the background.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: We've actually back tested, and this is over the last six years.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: If you'd held tesla over the last six years, yeah, you made quite a lot of money.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Know, you make 350% or something.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Well, if you'd followed our buy and sell signals, you would have made 1900%.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It's Tesla, nvidia.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: If you just held it, you'd be up about 2000%.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: If you traded it following our buy and sell signals, you'd be up about 3,700%.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: You get the idea right.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So, on very volatile stocks, this is working insanely well and the way that works is it's a momentum indicator that sort of is based on what I developed ages ago as a banker and then we've coded it and we've then trained AI on it and it now actually gets better and better and better in advance and it's kind of crazy.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: So say, here, let me zoom in a bit on this for you.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: You know, flip thread in the background here, right.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So here it gives you a sell signal.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: You know you sell Sell signal, you sell Sell signal, you sell Sell signal, sell signal.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Pretty good, right?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Pretty freaking accurate.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: These are all the sell signals.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: And then, similarly, it obviously gives you also green signals, buy signals, like here and there and here and there and here and there and here, and it's insanely accurate.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So if you want to use that, you want to get your hands on it, there's a link down below at Trade Vision.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: You can literally get a whole month free trial to this and it costs like 16 bucks or 19 bucks a month or something.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: The thing, the whole, the whole, the whole app.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So it's very, very affordable because that's the, that's the aim we have here, um, but play with it now.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: There's a warning with it, unless you have rules around your trading, you will still lose money.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because you get greedy.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So you still need some exit rules.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Um, and we went through that today on the on the, on the, on the master class.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: But this is insanely accurate.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Now, at the moment, this works for about um.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Let me show you it works for about 400 odd tickers.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So it shows you here trends, ai, prediction, which one it works for, which one it doesn't work for, and um, if it says naAA, we are not making it available to you yet because it isn't really working, so play with that.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's insanely, insanely good.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Here's Microsoft.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Exit is here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: You went back in.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Here you sell here, you buy there.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: You don't have to wait, obviously, from beginning to end.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: You can exit before that's what I would always strongly recommend with some sort of exit strategy.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: But you bought here, you run the profits all the way, somewhere up there your stop loss kicks in and you're making money.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: So my aim with this is to give you the tools that banks have, because I developed this for a bank quite a few years ago.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: We've actually refined it, we've made it better.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: That's why banks make money.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: They have better data.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: They have better tools.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Most retail investors look at a chart and just go.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I don't actually know what that means.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: You just look at this and you go.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So our aim here is to give you the tools to be able to make money.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: But, as always, don't rely blindly on an indicator.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Unless you have a system, unless you have written rules literally in front of you on your desk, you will lose money.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: That's my big warning there.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: But go and play with it.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Get a simulated trading account, a paper trading account, and play with it, tradevisionio.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: But don't be a greedy fool.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: And we also send you a daily email with the alerts so you know what's moving, so you don't have to scan through hundreds of tickets.