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What will it take for Canada and the U.S. to return to the negotiating table · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: How far away are the two sides from returning to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: trade talks? Joining us now to discuss that is former
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson. Colin, thank you so much for
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: your time.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: Good to be with you, Sarah.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So I think it's fair to say there's no signals
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: from either Canada or the U.S. that they are close
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: to resuming trade talks. What do you think it's going
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: to take to get them back at the table?
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: Well, in fact, I think you could say that there
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: is some signal on the U.S. side because initially when
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: When we walked out, Americans.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Said, we're not going to be dealing with you. We're
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: moving on to other countries.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: In fact, this week, we've had Jameson Greer, as you know,
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: talking with Rosie, and Lutnick is now weighed in. So
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: my guess is that the Americans, there's probably some pressure
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: from within to say, get back to the table. We'll
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: see what happens, whether this happens quickly before we put
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: our tariffs on. But I think that there is always
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: counter pressure in the United States, and we have a
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: lot of support amongst Americans. state governors and within Congress,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: within business, they just don't want to put their head
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: above the parapet.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: But they're probably.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: Speaking behind the scenes to the White House saying, look,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: if we can't do a deal with Canada, who can
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: we do a deal with?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: What did you make about the fact that Jameson Greer
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: did do that interview with Rosemary? And, you know, actually
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: now we have, of course, Janice Charette speaking with Catherine Cullen.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: We heard Howard Lutnick out in front of the cameras yesterday.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: The fact that they are speaking, and I mean, I
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: think all Canadians, probably some Americans, or hanging on every word,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: like trying to interpret what's happening.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. The fact that they're speaking.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I remember we had a week of political theater
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: directed from the president, including the Lake Ontario versus Lake
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: America and the nasty Canadians.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: And the rest.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: That's the theater side. But what's important is what are
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: the negotiators saying? And the fact that Jameson Greer decided
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: to get out there and put forward, tells me that
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: the They are still interested in sitting down with us
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: again at some point. And yes, we know that there's
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: going to be tariffs. But I think we're both looking
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: now for some way to resume negotiations. And that's really
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: important for us and for the Americans. But when it happens,
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: we have to tell.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: There was an encouraging snapshot of the Canadian economy today.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: GDP rose 3.3 percent in the second quarter. I mean,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: how is that interpreted by Ottawa? Do you think that
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Ottawa may feel like it's sort of well-positioned for a
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: long fight, given that?
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Well, I think nobody wants a long fight, especially Canada,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: because we are the smaller player and it is going
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: to put official restraint on us.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: It's going to cost jobs. That we know.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: But we are prepared to hang out until such time
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: as we think it's ready to go back. But my
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: guess is sometime in the next couple of weeks, you'll
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: have Dominic.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: LeBlanc talk to Jameson Greer quietly. We won't be reported.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: See, okay, what can we do to at least start
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: getting back at the table?
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: What is it?
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Both sides, I think, have to establish what their red
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: lines are. I think we have a clear sense, certainly
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: as Canadians, we have a clear sense since the Prime
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Minister's press conference last week. Janice Charette papers are being
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: exchanged back and forth. That's really important because as the
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: Prime Minister said, the stuff is written in pencil.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: And that's always a danger.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: My impression was that perhaps there wasn't as much exchange
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: of documents as we thought. But Janice Charette implies there
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: is exchange of documents. And that's important Because then you
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: actually know you're dealing with facts and evidence.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: In front of you.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Given some of the antics we've seen from Donald Trump,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: the Lake Ontario versus Lake America, and then, you know,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: you have a different style coming from Howard Lutnick, who's
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: out in front of the cameras. Then you have, I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: would suggest, a very different style from Jameson Greer as
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: he was taking questions. I mean, what does the negotiation
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: look like and how does Canada go in? And I mean,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: you're trying to negotiate really with, I'd suggest, at least
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: those three personalities.
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, although the only personality that counts is at the
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: end of the day is the president.
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  Speaker 2: You know, it is difficult.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: Butnik comes from a certain perspective. I remember a couple
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: of years ago, he said for future negotiations, it was
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: for Americas to win and for Canada to give. Same
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: for Mexico. I think Jameson Greer, who was present at
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: the last set of negotiations as the deputy to Robert
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: Lighthouse in his position, would.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Like to see a deal done.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: And the fact he spent the time this past week
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: going out and talking tells me that he's got a
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: signal from the president to try and keep something going.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: But when that happens, hard to tell.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: But I think we will be back, I hope, sooner
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: than later, because the later means jobs, contracts and investment.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: And Canada is on the losing end there. The prime
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: minister has his big investment conference next month. And certainly
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: foreign investors will be looking to see, does Canada maintain
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: that preferential access to the United States that works so
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: well for not just Canada, but also the United States?
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So you're hedging around a prediction as to this getting
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: back to the table at some point, but not putting
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: any kind of a timeline on it. The counter tariffs
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: from Canada, they kick in September 8th. Is there an
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: 11th hour trade deal to happen before that, do you think?
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Possible.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: But that will come down to the president. And that,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: I think, would require a conversation beforehand between Dominic LeBlanc,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: Jameson Greer, who would then have to convince the president.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: And then that would be followed by a conversation between
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: the president and the prime minister. There is opportunity for that.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: But whether we get there or not, hard to tell.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: We're going to keep watching and listening to every.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Interview that's given here. It's in both our interests to
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: get back to the table. Right.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Colin Robinson, thank you very much.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Thanks, Sarah.