Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | First Football Friday | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/4/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | First Football Friday | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/4/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Down, baby.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the crown.
• 1:15
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Friday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: September 4th. We went 1-0 on the show yesterday. We
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: won with the Royals, first five. They actually had an
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: easier time winning on the full game, which I wouldn't
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: have expected because their bullpen is awful but we had
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: some fifth inning magic in that one they were losing
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: three to two in the fifth inning and they scored
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: twice in the fifth inning and won the first five
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: play four to three is it luck I don't know
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: I mean it was close I mean maybe we got
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit lucky sometimes you got to I mean
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say it was the greatest play
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: but it was I thought it was the best play
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: on the board yesterday and it won I mean I
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: liked the handicap for it so That's what we got.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have two baseball plays. I have a
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: football play tonight. You already know what it is. I
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: think it's probably the best one of the week, actually.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: I've not found anything tomorrow that I really even want
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: to make a play on yet, so I don't know
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: what I'm going to do with tomorrow. Week one is difficult,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: and I tread pretty lightly. Like, I like using, like,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I like using information that we already have. I like
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: when people start overreacting to what they've seen from teams already.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So that makes it easier
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: for me. Garrett, what's up? Was there not a seven
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: on Colorado? I don't know. Maybe it never got back
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: to seven. Seven is a key number. So I was like,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: you got to find the seven on that, dude. But
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. I thought that it would come
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: up at some point because the public was on Georgia
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Tech in that game. I don't know. Colorado wire-to-wire covered
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: the 6.5, though. It got a little bit questionable at
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: the end because Georgia Tech got really close at the end.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: They wound up with a field goal, and Georgia Tech
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: was actually stupid. They mismanaged the clock completely. I think
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: they could have pretty much run out the clock there
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: and said they gave Colorado like a minute and a half,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: and Colorado wound up quickly scoring it. I think it
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: only took them like 40 seconds to score a touchdown,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: but whatever. Yes, you had Kansas City first five. Colorado Money, yeah,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know about the live play, but
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: like I say, whenever you play an underdog like that,
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: I would say in that price range, put 10% of
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: the bet on the money line. And then what is this?
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Arkansas Pine Bluff. You mean plus 55 and a half?
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: You mean that was against, who were they playing? Missouri.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I mean, I don't hate that. I mean,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I think Missouri is probably overrated. I don't really do
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: these FCS games, but Arkansas Pine Bluff I think is
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: somewhat geographically close to Missouri. They probably would get up
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: to face the big boy. Missouri's probably overrated after what
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: they did last year. I mean, they don't have their
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: same quarterbacks anymore and whatever. So I think Missouri's not
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: going to be as good this year. Probably they were overranked.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: And you know what happens with games like this. You
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: have a huge spread like that. If that huge favorite
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: doesn't really have any reason to run up the score
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: like that, And then also they could just take their
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: starters out because they don't want to get their starters hurt.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: They want to give their backups playing time. That's a
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: game where they do that. I'm assuming Missouri probably did that.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: I didn't see any of that game. But that helps
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: the underdog. That gives the underdog a backdoor capability there,
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: backdoor cover capability. So, yeah. I don't know what else
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: I have to say, although Arkansas, very bad team. But
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: that was a huge number on that game. 4-0 in
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: college football. You're taking more risks than I would. I
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: only had Eastern Michigan so far, and I have a
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: play tonight that I think is very good, and you
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: already know what it is because I mentioned it yesterday,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: but when you hear my handicap of it, maybe you'll
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: like it more. I don't know. People are not going
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: to like it. On the surface, people are going to
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: think I'm an idiot, but that's what I.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: Do, man.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: And UMass with a win. They didn't win any games
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: all of last year. I thought they were relegating themselves
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: back to FCS, and what did they do? Oh, yeah,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: we're like 30-point underdogs. Let's just beat Rutgers. How about that?
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: I lean to UMass against the spread, but winning outright,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is really, really ridiculous, so we already
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: have a huge upset there. I would be looking to
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: fade UMass in their next game, and I will be
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: looking to do that potentially as a play, but I
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: would also be looking to play on Rutgers in their
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: next game. That sets up an interesting situation because Rutgers
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: plays B.C. next, Boston College. B.C. is playing Cincinnati Saturday,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: and there's a chance that B.C. can hang around in
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: that game because of all the stuff. I mean, I'll
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: talk about it more on tonight's show. I'll talk about
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: that game, I guess. There's all the gambling stuff that
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: happened to Cincinnati, Soares being their quarterback, whatever. If BC
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: can hang in that game against Cincinnati, I think Cincinnati
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: is overrated this year after what they did last year,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: at least at the beginning of last year. Rutgers is
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: going to be a solid play against BC after this.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: If BC looks way better than they are, especially if
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: BC upsets Cincinnati, I think Rutgers will be a play
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: for me next week if that's what happens. Anyway... Let's
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: do today, man. I have a play immediately here. We
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: have a doubleheader, which is why there's an afternoon game
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: between Detroit and Cleveland. This is a big divisional series.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is, I believe Cleveland is still hanging on to
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: the last wildcard spot right now in the AL. I
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: could be wrong about that. But Detroit probably is not
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: going away. And this is a divisional series. So Detroit,
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: at the very least, they want to just knock Cleveland down.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, These teams don't like
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: each other. These are some of the main rivals in
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: this division. Cleveland made that run at the end of
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: last year to overtake Detroit to win the division. Although
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: I think both teams got knocked out of the playoffs
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: pretty quickly. I think they were both in it last year.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, these teams don't... I think they played each...
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Did they play each other? And Detroit beat them? That
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: might be right. I don't know. But whatever. These teams
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: don't like each other. But Cleveland has a disadvantage here,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: and that is they played yesterday. Now, they did lose
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: to Toronto, so that's ugly. Like, they might bounce back
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: from that. But I'm not so sure about that. In fact,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely not sure about that because I have a
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: play on this game, and it has to do with
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: the rest advantage and the matchup. This is game one.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: We're going to take Detroit here on the money line,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: plus 120. I don't love their bullpen, but I think
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: their bullpen can match up here because Cleveland's bullpen had
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: a bunch of usage yesterday. They used a bunch of
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: guys here, including their closer, by the way, although he
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: only threw four pitches. But they used six guys out
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. Most of their better relievers came in,
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: and they're going up against a Detroit team that did
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: not use any relief pitchers yesterday because they were off.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: So I like this for Detroit, man. And for Detroit,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: they just ended a losing streak. They lost three in
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: a row, and they beat the Twins in their last
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: game two days ago. They're coming in from Minnesota here.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: Not a bad travel spot for them, but, you know,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: I like to play on teams after they break a
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: losing streak. It can give them some, like, new momentum.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: They relieve themselves of the embarrassment that they suffered in
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: the first two games of that series. I like how
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: that sets up for them to come in here, even though, yes,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I know Cleveland losing to Toronto was kind of embarrassing yesterday, too.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: But then again, Toronto's in the wild-card hunt. So Cleveland
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: losing to Toronto, you know, maybe that game was bigger
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: sort of than we think it is. So maybe they're
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: coming off kind of a bigger game there. Although Detroit
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: crushing Minnesota probably felt pretty good for them as well.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: But what I'm looking at here is rest advantage for Detroit.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: We're getting them as an underdog, and I think we
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: have the better starter here. As far as the bullpens
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: are concerned, Cleveland is ranked 15th. Detroit is ranked 18th.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is slightly better, but I'm still going with the
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: full game here because the rest advantage I just think
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: kind of flips the bullpen advantage there. If you want
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: to go first five on this with Detroit, you could
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: do that too. Detroit, but I'm also going with a
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: situational angle here where I think it applies to the
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: full game. Detroit is number 21 offensively, but they're better
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: than Cleveland. Cleveland 29th, very, very bad offensively. So Detroit,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: as much as they've been bad recently, Offensively, I think
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: they still have the offensive edge here. And I like
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: the starter better for Detroit, which is Keeter Montero. If
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: you think either one or either of these starters might
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: not actually start the game, you could play this action
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: because I'm pretty sure that we're going to get both
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: of these pitchers that are listed as starters. in this game.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: It's just a matter of is there going to be
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: an opener or something like that. Montero has been an
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: opener in the past, but they basically are just letting
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: him be a starter at this point. So I think
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: we're going to get him for a decent amount of
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: this game. He's got a 3.24 ERA.. 99 whip is
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: definitely good. He's better on the road as well. 3.02
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: road ERA with a really low 161 opponent batting average. Montero,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty hard to hit, man, even though he's
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: not a strikeout guy. His strikeout walk ratio looks pretty
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: bad because he doesn't really strike anybody out, but he
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't allow many runs or hits. He's allowed three or
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in three games in a row. One
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: was a six and a third inning shutout against Cleveland,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: but Cleveland's already seen a bunch of them, so I
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: don't think the fact that they faced him recently is
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: going to help them much, even though they Didn't have
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: any strikeouts in that game. Montero followed that up by
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: pitching decently against Pittsburgh, and then he got his team
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: a win. He didn't get the win, but they won
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: in his last game where he pitched against the Dodgers,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: so that's a good sign. He's got a low hit
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, a low walk rate as well.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: He just doesn't put guys on base, although his strikeout
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: rate is not good. But strikeout walk ratio is still
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: at three because he walks a few guys. Strikeout per nine,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: it's not good. It's six, but Yeah, he pitches to contact,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: but he's been successful pretty continuously at doing so. And
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: the other thing I like about it is he's going
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: up against a really weak Cleveland offense, and even though
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: they just saw him recently, they got a lot of
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, 69. And Montero has dominated them, 145
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: average allowed, 493 OPS. The only bad number here is
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: very few strikeouts, nine strikeouts, five walks. All these other
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: numbers are good. So I am definitely going to back
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: him here. And I'm going to fade Logan Allen on
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: the other side, who I guess is starting for Cleveland.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Logan Allen, I think, has been injured for much of
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: the season. If you look at what he's done in
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: the past, very unimpressive. Like, mediocre stuff at best. A
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: career 1.45 ERA loss. none of that is good dude
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: like he walks too many guys he's just he's not
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: very good he's pitched a little bit this year he
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: pitched once in May I guess that was a start
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: or yeah May then he came back in July I
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: don't know if he was hurt or in the minors
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: or what he came back in July wasn't really that
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: good and he's been relegated to the bullpen pitching out
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen for the month of August he overall
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: is a 3.77 ERA this year but he's got a 1.47
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: whip which is not good and He hasn't walked anybody
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: yet in the month of, or he didn't in August,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, but I don't trust him, man. His numbers just,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: they don't appeal to me. He's not good at home
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: either this year, 4.35 home ERA. I know it's a
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: small sample, but that's not a great sign, and it's
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: also not good that Detroit has 31 at-bats against him.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: They have a. 355 average and 12.48 OPS against him,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts, seven walks. It's only six of their hitters,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: but it's the majority of their better hitters. have faced him.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: They have pretty much teed off against Allen. Allen is
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: the inferior of the two pitchers here. We're going to
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: take Detroit here in game one. The money seems to
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: very much agree with this. 74% of the tickets are
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: on Cleveland. The public is playing Cleveland at about minus
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: 130-something here, minus 140. They're going to play the team
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: with a better record, but in this case, I don't agree, obviously.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I like Detroit with the rest edge. I like Detroit's
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: starter better. 56% of the cash on Detroit. So the
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: money's agreeing with this. The money's also coming in on
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: the over for whatever that's worth at 8, 8.5. But
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: I'm not focusing on the total. Give me Detroit in
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: this first game on the money line. And if you
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: wanted to go first five with it, you could do
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: that as well. But that's what I'm going to do. Oh, well,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: thank you. All right, yeah. Hopefully I'm winning everybody money here, man.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about the other game of the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: doubleheader now because that's what I do. They're playing a doubleheader, Detroit-Cleveland.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: The night game is on Apple TV. And this game,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: to me, I think you either play Cleveland in the
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: second game or don't play the game because it looks
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: like too much of a mismatch here. We don't know
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: what the bullpens are going to look like after game one.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's bullpen might be pretty burned out after game one
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: today and yesterday's game. So Detroit may still kind of
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: hold a bullpen edge here, but... I don't know if
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: it's going to be enough, man. Detroit's got Andrew Sears
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: listed as their starter here in Game 2. He does
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: not have good numbers at all. I don't know how
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: deep he's going to go into this game. Probably not deep.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: He's only made two starts so far. Were those even starts? No,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: they were relief appearances. So I don't even know if
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: he's actually going to start this game. I think if
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: you play this game, you should pick Griffin. Must start
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland, but don't pick a starter for Detroit. Because
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: it looks like it's going to be some bullpen concoction
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: maybe with Sears opening or who knows. He's got a 6.75 ERA, 1.35
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: whip though. Cleveland has never faced him, but so far
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: he does not look impressive. Although he's a young guy.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: I haven't really dug into his minor league numbers to see,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: but I wasn't going to play this game anyway. But
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he's really any good. But we
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: know that Foster Griffin has had a good season. He
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: is pitching game two. for Cleveland here. And that's who
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I would back in game two. He's got a 3.21 ERA, 1.12 whip.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: He's been slightly worse as a home pitcher, 3.28, but
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: a lot of that is with, um, Washington. He got
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: traded over from Washington. He had one bad start, uh,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: in his first start with Cleveland, but he's been good
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: since then. He's allowed two or fewer runs and all
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: of the starts since then, not exactly going deep into
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: the starts, but he's been pretty good. And he's known
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: for being really good in the first five at the
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: very least. Um, Picks up a lot of wins for
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: you when you bet on him in the first five.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, not
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate, but he's been pretty good. He's
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: come from out of nowhere to pitch really well this season.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Maybe you've got to worry about his innings count a
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: little bit because he has not exceeded this amount of
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: innings before in his major league career, but he looks
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: good at 3.6 yards. Strikeout walk ratio, 8.1 strikeout per nine.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: None of that is bad. Griffin has been okay against Detroit,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I guess, in 18 at-bats. It's not a huge sample.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: 222 average a lot, but they've hit him for some power.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: They have a 763 OPS against him, which is slightly high.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Three-to-one strikeout walk ratio, but I'd be leaning Cleveland in
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: this game in some capacity. The money line is in
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: the minus 140s, though. Or yeah, it's right around minus 140.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree with this. 84% of the tickets,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on Cleveland. I think that's what
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I would do. Or if you want to do a
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Griffin first five thing, I would not disagree with that
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: in game two because you don't even know what the
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: bullpen scenario is going to look like. So Griffin in
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: the first five, like play Cleveland minus the half run
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: basically in the first five. I think that is a
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: pretty good way of playing that game. And money looks
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: like it's, I guess, indicating towards the over. The total's
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: around eight. I mean, you know me. I lean towards
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: overs when I have nothing else to go on in
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: game two because I'm kind of assuming the bullpens are
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: going to be used in game one. I'd be a
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: little bit careful with that, though, because Griffin is decent,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: and we're in September call-ups now, so there are more
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: bullpen arms for all these teams. But even so... You're
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: going to play the over? Yeah, I don't know. I mean,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I would not blindly do that just because of the bullpens.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: I would at least see what happens in game one.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: But like I said, the bullpens, it's September, so bullpens
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: have like basically three additional arms for the most part
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen. But I'm still fading Cleveland in that
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: first game because I think the rest scenario just– Comes
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: into play for the whole game. All right, only talked
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: about two games so far. That is not good. Milwaukee
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: at Cincinnati. Cincinnati, I believe, has a rest edge here. Cincinnati,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: they've been playing okay recently. They've won whatever this is,
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: five of their last seven. They just won a series
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: against San Diego at home. So Cincinnati not going away,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: trying to win games here. And, you know, they'll be
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: focused because it's the Brewers. coming in here. So Cincinnati
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: gets a shot to beat the team that's winning the
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: division and likely will win the division after they just
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: split with the Cubs. Milwaukee coming out of that huge
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: series with the Cubs. They did lose yesterday 2-1. Logan
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Henderson was good again, but pitching really good on both
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: sides in that one. I believe I did lean to
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the under in that one, if I'm not mistaken. Milwaukee
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: coming off of that now and without rest. So Cincinnati
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: has a rest advantage here. I would not disagree with
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati in this game, as ugly as it sounds. I
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: think it could be kind of a letdown for Milwaukee here.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Coming off a big series, why would they really focus
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: on Cincinnati here? You know what I mean? Cincinnati, with
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: a day of rest, should be focused, although I still
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: hate Cincinnati's bullpen. I absolutely hate them, and Milwaukee only
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: used one guy out of their bullpen. So if I
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: played Cincinnati here, I would still not want to include
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: their bullpen here. Whoops, that's college football stuff. bullpen-wise, Cincinnati,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: they're 25th. Milwaukee is 5th. This is based on WIP,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: but I still think Milwaukee, they're like the 3rd best bullpen,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: maybe the 4th. Them, Atlanta, and San Diego's kind of
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: in the mix there as well. Milwaukee's a very good
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: offense as well. They're No. 4, tied with Colorado. Cincinnati,
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: not good. They're 23rd, so Milwaukee clearly is the way
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: better team, but Milwaukee's going to be a pretty heavy
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: favorite here, and Milwaukee has a rest disadvantage, and they
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: don't have one of their better starters here on the mound.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: It's going to be Shane Drohan, who's still not good
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: enough to even have his picture on ESPN. 3.75 ERA
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: this year. I mean, he's had a decent season, but
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: he's been worse recently. 1.3 whip is not really that
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: good he is actually better on the road though 3.38
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: road ERA and he was decent in his last two
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: starts he was bad at the beginning of August had
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: a couple of bad starts in there but then he
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: kind of turned it around so he's kind of in
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: better form again here but his strikeout walk ratio and
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: hit rate in the month of August really were not
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: that good. Over the course of the season, he's got
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: kind of a mediocre hit rate, a pretty good walk rate,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk many guys usually, and he does have
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: a decent strikeout rate. Giving him a three strikeout walk ratio,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: which is right around what I consider to be pretty
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: much average, maybe I would say good, and nine strikeout
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: per nine, which he's right on all the averages, man,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: which I would say that's pretty good, though. Drohan against Cincinnati,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: he's been only okay in 28 at-bats. 286 average a
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: lot is pretty high, but they haven't really hit him
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: for power. 712 OPS is not really that high. 8-3
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. On the other side, Rhett Louder is
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: pitching for Cincinnati. Now, generally, yeah, Drohan is the better
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: of these two pitchers, but the question is, with Cincinnati
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: with their rest edge, with Louder actually being better at home,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: situational edge here potentially for Cincinnati. Can they actually get
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: this thing done? I don't know. Louder has a 5.14 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: He is a lot better at home, though. 3.35 home ERA.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: He's been at least somewhat mediocre overall. Recently, Cincinnati's won
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of his recent outings. They've won six of
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: his last seven outings, so Cincinnati is winning behind him.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Some of it is recently they're putting up a ton
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: of runs behind him, but he's allowed four or fewer
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: runs in every start across that entire span. He's allowed
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: three or fewer in all but one of them, so
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: he is actually pitching a little bit better here. Still,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, he leaves something to be desired, obviously. I mean,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: his overall numbers are still pretty bad. His hit rate's high.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not very good. His strikeout rate is low.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really strike anybody out. Strikeout walk ratio at
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: two was very bad. Strikeout per nine, 7.1 isn't very
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: good either. However, he's in slightly better form right now.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: He might be able to get the job done in
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: this one, man, because he's not going up against one
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: of the Brewers' best starters here. And he is, excuse me,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: he's not good against the Brewers, my mistake. 56 at bats,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: 357 average allowed, 946 OPS. I don't know why I
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: was thinking he was better against the Brewers than that.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: I looked at all this this morning. 17 to five
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, I mean, all right. I can't
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: back louder here, although the situation seems like it does
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: favor Cincinnati. The public is on Milwaukee. 87% of tickets,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on Milwaukee. If you're going to
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: play Cincinnati, I think you've got to do it in
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: the first five still. But, yeah, I mean, I think
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: it's off the table for me. I think I just
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: can't back louder, even though he is better at home
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: and he's been better recently. I might lean to Cincinnati
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: first five, but I can't do it. Excuse me. minus
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: 160-something is the price on Milwaukee. You're going to get
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at an underdog price, obviously. Maybe the over makes
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: more sense than anything else here. Nine and a half
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: is the total, so the oddsmakers are telling you they
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be a high-scoring game. They're above
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: that key number of nine. The money is coming in
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: on the over here. I would not disagree with the over.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think there's any way I'd play
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: an under here. You got pitchers that kind of leave
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: something to be desired here, and yeah, at least Milwaukee's
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: offense could definitely hit. So yeah, I think an over
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: makes some sense there. There's too much going on in
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: that game that kind of conflicts with each other though.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: So I don't want to deal with it. All right. Uh,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Anaheim and Pittsburgh on Apple TV, Pittsburgh, uh, was this
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: yesterday or two days ago? They beat the giants. That
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: was yesterday. So these teams, Anaheim was off yesterday. Pittsburgh
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, but Anaheim did not. So Anaheim is starting
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: a road trip after they lost to the Yankees, I believe. Um,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: And a pretty timely day off for Anaheim because they
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: had an extra inning game, which I don't want to
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: talk about, the other day that destroyed my under. That
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: should have been a sure winner on that under. This
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: game is on Apple TV, so Anaheim does have a
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: rest edge here. Pittsburgh is staying at home. Pittsburgh looks
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: like they're trying to still win here, but Pittsburgh used
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: a lot of relief arms yesterday. They used six because
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: it was a bullpen game for them yesterday while Anaheim
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: was off. So that might give Anaheim a bullpen edge here. Pittsburgh,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: they're 19th in bullpen. Anaheim's 23rd. Anaheim's not that much worse, though.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: And with the rest, I think it kind of balances out.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: But maybe you just want to avoid both bullpens here, though.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is number six offensively. They're way better at home
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: as well. They've fallen off a little bit, but they're
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: still a really good offense, and they're a lot better
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: than the last-ranked Angels offense. Angels have Ryan Johnson pitching today.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: He's not great. I mean, he is young. He's shown
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: some signs of maybe improving, but 5.47 ERA, 1.42 whip,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: none of that is good. He's been pretty bad on
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: the road, 6.48 road ERA. That's not good. He's been
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit better over the past month or so,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: sort of. He's allowed two or fewer runs in every
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: start over the last month. The problem is he's walked
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: more guys than he struck out. 15 to 16 strikeout
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: walk ratio in August. That tells you his 1.71 ERA
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: during the month is not accurate. It's very misleading. The
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: one good thing is he became very unhittable, though. He
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: was very hard to hit in the month of August,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: but he was walking a ton of guys. and not
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: striking out a ton of guys. He does have a
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: reasonable hit rate here now after that. His walk rate
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: is still too high. His strikeout rate is not good.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: So his strikeout walk ratio is very ugly. It's below 2,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: pretty much in an unacceptable range there. And his strikeout
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: upper 9, way less than it was last year. Last
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: year he was mostly a relief pitcher, but he still
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: put up bad numbers last year. Even though he was
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: striking guys out, he's got a 6.5 strikeout per 9
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: this year, which is low. It's not good. Johnson probably
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: has not faced Pittsburgh before, but let me see if
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: I can find them here. No, they have four guys
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: who have faced them, four at-bats. I looked at this earlier.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I just never remember anything. They're one for four off them.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Oneal Cruz is the only hit against them, a single.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: No strikeouts, no walks. So Johnson does have some unfamiliarity here.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Whether that helps him that much, I don't know. Jared
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Jones is on the other side for Pittsburgh... He had
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: his start pushed back... He was supposed to start I
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: think two days ago... Now he's starting today... I still
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: think Jones is better than his numbers reflect right now...
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: He looked good like two years ago... And he's trying
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: to come back from missing all of last year with
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: an injury... 4.83 ERA this year... 1.28 whip... Not great...
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: But I think his ERA deserves to be a little
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: bit lower than it is... He does have a high
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: ERA at home... 5.31... But if you kind of dig
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: into these numbers... It's kind of hard to explain why,
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: because his opponent batting average and his walk rate are
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: not bad at home. And his opponent batting average is,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: in fact, low, 208. So it must be, I guess,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: the home runs getting to him at home. I'm not
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: really sure. Yeah, I guess so. I mean, even that
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: number's not that much different. So I don't know, man.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Seems to me like he's getting kind of unlucky at home. Now,
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: he's allowed few runs recently, but his team has been
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: losing all of his games recently. They've lost seven straight
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: starts that he's made. For the most part, his team
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: has not put up any runs in his favor. He
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: had one really bad outing in that stretch against the Mets,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: but other than that, he hasn't been that bad. Although
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: you'd like to see his walk rate go down. He's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: been walking too many guys. He's been too hittable as well,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: but he is also striking out a lot of guys.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: He does have a reasonable hit rate on the season.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: His walk rate isn't too bad on the season. His
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is high, so season-wide, numbers don't look that bad. 3.1
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is not bad. 10.3 strikeout per nine.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: That's solid. So, yeah, again, I think Jones is better
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: than his numbers reflect, and I think he is the
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: better of these two pitchers here. Jones against the Angels,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: they have three guys to face, and they're 0 for
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: 6 with two walks, two strikeouts. So they're pretty unfamiliar
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: with him, too. Anaheim has the rest edge, but I
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: think Pittsburgh is the better team here with the better
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: starter here. I don't know, man. It's tough to figure
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: this game out. The money is coming in on Pittsburgh.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: They're minus 200, though, which is a ridiculous price. Very,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: very disrespected Anaheim in the market here. Money is also
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: playing the under 8.5 or whatever that's worth. I don't
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: think I would want to do that, especially not in
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the full game with these bullpens. I think maybe Pittsburgh
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: first five, even though they don't have the rest edge.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: They're staying at home, and I still think Jones is
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: preferable to Johnson here, so You'd have to pay a
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: huge price for it, though. You'd probably have to lay
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: a minus one run line with Pittsburgh in the first five.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do that. Why is this page
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: continuously reloading? CBS Sports, shut up, dude. Look at this thing.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: You see this spinner up here? It's really irritating, mate.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Maybe I could just hit the
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: X or whatever. Yeah, there we go. No, that still
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: didn't stop it. What a piece of shit. All right.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Next game up is my final play, so you get
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: my two plays really early in the show. It's probably
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: not what you think it's going to be. Looking at
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: this elite pitching matchup, you probably think it's an under,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: but that is not where I'm going with this. Garrett,
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: I know you're going to tail this one because you're biased.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: We're going to take the Atlanta Braves money line here.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: Full game, they have the better bullpen than Philadelphia, but
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: they also have an advantage here in the situation, in
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: the scheduling, where Philadelphia's returning home from a road trip,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to fade them after that. They had
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: a three-series road trip that took them out to the
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: West Coast. Very successful road trip. They won the majority
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: of the games on the road trip. They're coming back home.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: They've got to play Atlanta now. It's a step up, man,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: for playing. Well, they did play Seattle and Arizona, but
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: they also played the Angels on that road trip. The
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Braves are better than all those teams anyway, but you
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: know me. I like to fade teams returning home from
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: the road, even though this is a big series. Philadelphia's
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: not going to overlook the Braves here, but the Braves...
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: They need to win, man. If the Braves win this
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: game here, they're pretty much set. They could go 1-2
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: in this series, and it wouldn't be the end of
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: the world here. The Braves only have a four-game lead
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: right now in this division. They want to hold on
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: to this divisional lead, so the Braves are not going
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: to be unmotivated here. Neither team will be, but it's
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia returning home from a road trip, and you know
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: I don't like that. The Braves are above. 500 on
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the road, even though they're better at home. They've been
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: decent away from home. Philadelphia is definitely better at home, though.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: But I'm still going to fade them in this spot.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: The Braves coming up, beating the Nationals, ended a two-game
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: losing streak there. The Braves were really hot before they
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: took those two losses. Now that they beat the Nationals,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: they got some new momentum, I think. I think they're
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: going to show up here for this one. Easy travel
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: spot for the Braves, by the way. Both teams off yesterday,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: and the Braves are staying in the Eastern time zone,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: and they're only going from Washington to Philly. Much, much
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: easier travel for the Braves here. Braves bullpen-wise is the
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. There's no question about that. They're ranked third.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: I think they're either the third or fourth best bullpen.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is, where are they, ranked 17th, but their ERA
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: is like a run worse than the Braves. So, yes,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: we get a bullpen edge with the Braves here. Braves
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: have the better offense as well. They're number 10 tied
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: with Miami and the A's. Philadelphia is 18th tied with
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Baltimore and San Francisco. San Francisco is definitely not as
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: good as that, but Philadelphia is better at hitting at home.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: I will give them that, but I don't expect there
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to be a ton of hitting, and I know we're
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: playing the side here, and it could be a close game,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: but I think the advantages that we have in this situation,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: the bullpen and the pitching matchup, starting pitching, The combination
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: of all those things should get us there. I think
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: the Braves do have an edge in every phase of
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: this game, including the starting pitching, although maybe it's a
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: little bit slight. We're going to back Chris Sale. Maybe
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: he's going to be extra pumped after Mizurowski had a
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: bad start, and Mizurowski is now only minus 700 or
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: something to win the Cy Young instead of minus 1400,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: so that one start sliced his Cy Young odds in half.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much Sale really cares about that,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: but What I think he does care about is getting
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: his team a win here. He's been awesome. 2.06 ERA,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: one whip. He's been a little bit worse on the road,
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: but who cares? 2.71 road ERA. Yeah, that's really bad. No.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: He's coming off a complete game shutout against the Dodgers,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: which might worry you because he threw a lot of pitches,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: and it was a big game, big win, double-digit strikeouts, but...
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, Sale's a veteran. He's been doing this for forever.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: That's not going to faze him. He's been pitching at
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: an elite level recently, even though his team somehow lost
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: three starts in a row prior to that. He had
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: a 34-2 strikeout walk ratio in August. Is that good?
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Yeah, his command completely on point here.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: He's pitching really well. He had a very similar one
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: in the previous month, too. Across those two months, he
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: has a 68-6 strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, I'd say that's
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: rate on the season. Red Sox should not have gotten
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: rid of him. He's got a ridiculous 6.3 strikeout walk
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: ratio here, which is right in line with some of
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: his best seasons of his career. He also has an 11.1
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, which is a little bit lower than
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: the majority of his better seasons, but it's still really high.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: And Sale, you know what's coming. Against Philly, yeah, he's good.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: He's held them to a 214 average, 563 OPS, and
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: 131 at-bats with a 43-5 strikeout walk ratio. Very, very
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: good numbers here in a huge sample. So he's been
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: good against Philly. On the other side, Christopher Sanchez is
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: pitching for Philly. He's good. He's still in the Cy
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Young discussion, but he hasn't been as good recently, or
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: at least I would say over the past maybe month,
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: month and a half, he hasn't been quite as good. 2.52 ERA, 1.19 whip.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: He's still had an excellent season. He is still really
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: good at home, 1.68 home ERA, so he's more fadable
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: on the road. He is pitching a bit better again here,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: but his numbers are just not at the level that
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: sales are here, man, even though Philly has won a
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: bunch of his recent starts, so we are fading that here.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: They've won seven of his last eight. I get it.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer runs in all but two
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: of those and allowed no more than four in any
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: of them. But his walk rate's definitely been worse than Sale,
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: even though Sanchez is striking out a ton of guys.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Sale's just been better. Sale's had the lower hit rate
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: and the lower walk rate than Sanchez. Sanchez has a
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: higher whip. He puts more guys on base. That's just
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: what it is. Sanchez has a higher hit rate on
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: the season. His hit rate's actually not really that great,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: although he actually has gotten his walk number down. He
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: used to be kind of a walk hazard, but he's
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: kind of fixed that, but it seems like he's made
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: himself more hittable in the process. He does have a
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: good strikeout rate, but it's, I think, still not as
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: good as sales. His numbers are good, no doubt about it. 5.2
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 10.4 strikeout per nine. Sales just a
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: little bit better, and the clincher here is What does
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Sanchez do against Atlanta? Well, they have a. 328 average
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: and 874 OPS off them and a huge 134 at-bat
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: sample size. So we have two big sample sizes here,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: and sales matchup numbers are way better than Sanchez, even
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: though Sanchez has a 34-8 strikeout walk ratio, which is
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: really good. But these guys have hit them. The Braves
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: have hit them hard. That's what I'm going with. It's situational,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: plus I think we have the matchup edge. Full game
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: because I think we have the better bullpen here as well.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: We're going to take the Braves. Let's see here. Although
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I know Sanchez did pitch well. He faced Atlanta one
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: time this year, I think really early in the season
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: at home, and he was good in that start. But
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: you see what his number is. Even with that, his
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: numbers are still really bad overall against Atlanta. 56% of tickets,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: 70% of the cash on Atlanta, so I believe the
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: money's agreeing with me on this. We're getting him at
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: basically like a slight underdog price. All right, fine. You
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: want to give me Chris Sale as an underdog? All right,
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: let's do it. You're not going to get that that often,
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: and normally I would say, well, it looks too easy
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: to take Atlanta here, but I think that, I don't know, man.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: The public, I just think, is going to be kind
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: of split on this game. They think it's going to
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: be just a good matchup, and the money, for whatever reason,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: is back in the over. I know Sanchez, I know
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: his numbers look really ugly. Philly's bullpen is not very good,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: but I still see this as more of an under
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: than an over. The total is six and a half.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: And it's six and a half for a reason. You know,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: when oddsmakers put out a total of six and a half,
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: they're telling you that they think it's going to be
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game. And normally I do not want
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: to play an over like that. And in fact, I
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: did say that I don't like playing the six and
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: a half because it's off that key number seven. But
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: I did tell you that just long-term, if you blindly
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: play every six and a half total in baseball under,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: you actually do slightly win money, very slightly. But we're
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: going to play Atlanta money line in that one. Yes, yes,
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: I do know you. Uh-huh, correct. Cy Sale, I mean,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: he's going to try. Even if he does well here,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: Mizorowski's still going to be the pretty heavy favorite to
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: win the thing, and I think he's still... Mizorowski still
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: has like a. 79 whip, dude. I mean, nobody does
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: that over the course of a full season. I think
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: it would be ridiculous if he doesn't get it. Yeah,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: so Sale has been awesome, though. The two of them
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: have been better than the entire American League. So, yes, well, yeah,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Sale is one of those pitchers, yeah, you should feel good. Although,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: like I said, before his last start, they'd lost three
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: of his starts in a row. But, yeah, I mean,
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: usually you don't have a pitcher where you feel that
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: way about, like, I haven't felt that way about a
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Red Sox pitcher since, like, Pedro Martinez when I was
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: a kid, where it was like you knew they were
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: going to win, like, every time he was going to
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: pitch pretty much. You don't really get that much anymore
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball. You get it with maybe Sale, Mizorowski.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's it, really, as far as the pitchers. It's like, yeah,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: they're definitely going to win this game every time this
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: guy takes the mound. Even Mizorowski, last time out, he
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: didn't pitch well. They still won that game, by the way,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: because the Cubs pitching didn't hold up on the other side.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Although I thought it would. I actually liked the under
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: in that one. All right, Red Sox and Baltimore. Red
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Sox won the game yesterday. It should have been easier
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: than it was. Aroldis Chapman gave up a two-run homer
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: in the ninth inning that kind of skewed this thing.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox were winning 6-3 at that point. Adley Rutschman, though,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: was the only guy doing anything for the Red Sox
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: for a while, so Rutschman in his first game against
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: his former team He hit two home runs, and for
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: the first six innings of the game, those were the
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: only hits that the Red Sox had. Literally, the Red
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Sox had two hits, and they were both solo shots
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: from Rutschman, which brings up an interesting point, by the way,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: that when you have a guy that used to be
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: on a different team, a hitter, as far as hitter
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: props or whatever, seems like he gets pumped up to
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: play against his former team. I don't think he's mad
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: at his former team or whatever, but I think it's
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: more like, He just wants to play well in his
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: former home. He got a standing ovation. There were a
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: few boos, but if you're an Orioles fan, I don't
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: know how you boo him. You know what I mean?
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: Because he didn't do anything to you. like he just
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: got traded it was a management decision maybe maybe that
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: he got mad that he hit two home runs off
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: them but it seemed like the majority of the Orioles
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: fans are actually applauding his first home run too so
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: whatever but that was the case with the Red Sox
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: were actually losing the game I think at one point
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: three to one Bennett was fine in the game but
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Brandon Young pitched well as well Red Sox could not
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: hit his splitter at all And then the Red Sox
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: were able to unload on Baltimore's bullpen later in the game,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: and they wound up taking a 6-3 lead, I think
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: is what it was. And then Chapman, he's putting too
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: many guys on base, man, although it's rare that he
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: gives up a long ball, and he did in that game,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: but he still picked up the save. Whatever. So that's
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: what happened in yesterday's game. The Red Sox won, but
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's now in a spot where they lost the return
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: home spot. A lot of times teams will bounce back
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: after they return home and they lose that game, and
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: It wasn't an embarrassing game by any means. It was
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: a close game, so maybe it won't be as much
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: of a bounce-back spot here. I don't know. I mean,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: I think the money is kind of back in Baltimore here,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: but I don't really love trying to figure out the
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: side in this game. The Red Sox should still have
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They're still number one in WIP, although
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: they're number two in ERA behind the Yankees. Pretty close,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: those two teams there. Baltimore is 11th. Their bullpen is okay,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: but neither bullpen really did that well yesterday. Red Sox
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen still kind of won the game yesterday, though. Red
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Sox number seven in offense. They've been hitting a lot
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: better recently, and they do hit pretty well on the
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: road generally this year. Baltimore 18th tied with Philly and
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, as I mentioned. So the Red Sox do
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: have the edge there as well. I don't really like
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox starting pitching. Ron Yersuarez is pitching. There's
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: something wrong with him right now, man. He's had a
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: decent season, 3.64 ERA, 1.24 whip. He was good until
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: his groin injury, and I think there's something off about him.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Since he's come back from the groin injury, they ramped
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: him up. They had him not going that deep into
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: some of these games, but he's been walking way too
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: many guys recently. I don't know what the deal is
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: with him. He's been better ERA-wise on the road, 3.25
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: road ERA, but his opponent batting average is worse on
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: the road, so I don't really want to say he's
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: necessarily better on the road. But you look at these
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: numbers recently, 14 to 11 strikeout walk ratio in the
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: month of August with a nearly six ERA. Yeah, that's
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: not good. Although he allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: in three of the five outings, but got hit around
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: by Arizona and by the Yankees. He didn't go deep
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: into any of these games. Hasn't made it past five
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: and a third in any of them. He's only been
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: really fully ramped up over his last three starts, though,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: where they're letting him go 90 to 100 pitches again.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: But 14 to 11 strikeout walk ratio over the month,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: plus two high of a hit rate, that's not going
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: to cut it. He's not pitching well right now. He
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: needs to regain his form before we get to the
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: playoffs here, man, assuming the Red Sox are even going
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: to make it. He does have a low hit rate
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: on the season. He does have a low walk rate
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: on the season. His strikeout rate is decent. So he
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: still had a pretty good season overall. 3.1 strikeout walk ratio,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: not bad. 8.7 strikeout per nine, also not bad. Numbers
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: against the Orioles are also not bad. In 46 at-bats,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: 217 average, 693 OPS, 13-9 strikeout walk ratio is not good,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: but all nine walks are Pete Alonso. Alonso has seen
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of them because they were in the same
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: division for a long time. Suarez on Philly, Alonso on
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: the Mets, but Alonso has not hit him well. He's
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: just walked him a ton of times. Suarez, this might
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: be a spot where maybe he does bounce back. I mean,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: he does draw a matchup that seems like it is
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit better for him. So I'm not going
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: to say he's necessarily going to pitch badly here, but
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: his current form is kind of scary and not scary
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: in a good way. Shane Boz is getting the start
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: for Baltimore. 4.01 ERA, 1.35 whip. He's been mediocre. Better
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: ERA at home, 3.82, but his opponent batting average is
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: actually worse at home by quite a bit, 279. He's
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: been mediocre as well. He's striking out more guys recently
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: than Suarez is, but he's still kind of walking, guys.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's mediocre. He's been having a bunch of
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: mediocre starts. Keeping his team in these games, although they've
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: lost a bunch of them. Before they won against the
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: A's in his last start, his team had lost a
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: bunch of starts in a row, um, seven or eight
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: of them in a row, starting with a loss to
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, where the Red Sox won that game,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: in fact, by the same score as last night's game,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: six to five in Fenway. But there was some bad,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Boz only allowed one earned run in that game. There
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: was some bad fielding behind him in that one. So
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Boz was not bad in that start. His hit rate's
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: not great. It's right at one per inning here. His
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: walk rate is too high. His strikeout rate's a little
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: bit too low. So those numbers across the board don't
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: really look that good. So generally, Suarez is the better
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: of these two pitchers. Boz, 2.5 strikeout walk ratio, very mediocre.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Eight strikeout per nine, also mediocre. However, the Red Sox
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: have not been able to hit him. They have 91
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, and they have a 26-to-5 strikeout walk ratio,
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: 198 average, 512 OPS. So the Red Sox have not
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: done well against Boz. I think maybe an under is
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: the way to look at this game. Both pitchers look
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: like they have a decent matchup. It looks like the
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: money is, basically all the tickets are on the over.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: 84% of tickets on the over, 84% of the cash.
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: It's a public over at eight or eight and a
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: half here. I think that's the way I probably prefer
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: playing this game is the under if I was going
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: to play it. Yesterday's game also was misleadingly high scoring, right?
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: Like it was a 6-5 final, but that was a
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: 3-1 game in like the seventh inning. So it was
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: misleadingly high scoring. The money is also indicating on Baltimore
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: pretty strongly. 82% of the tickets are on the Red Sox,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: 51% of the cash. Red Sox are about a minus
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: 120 favorite here. I don't have a great read on
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: the side here. I would say if you're going to
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: play Baltimore, I think you should do it in the
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: first five. just to avoid the bullpen disadvantage that they
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: have here. I mean, Red Sox might lose the game.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: Suarez has not been good recently, all right? So, I
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: don't know. And it is technically, just situationally, it is
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: like one of those bounce-back spots, sort of, for Baltimore.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: But I'm not going to do anything with that game, obviously.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: But I think my preference would be to play it under.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Cubs at Miami. Miami... Oh, they did play yesterday, right?
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Because we won with the Royals in that game yesterday.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: And they won 7-3 in the full game. They were
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: only winning 4-3 at the end of 5. So maybe
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: we lucked out a little bit. But who would have
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: thought that the Royals' bullpen would be able to shut
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: the rest of the game down? Miami is now traveling
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: back home. You know, I don't like that. They were
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: just in Washington and then Kansas City. Miami in a
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: return home spot. Very dreaded return home spot where a
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: lot of times the team... won't play well and they'll
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: be distracted and whatever. They might not overlook the Cubs
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: because Miami's still technically trying to stay in the playoff
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: race here. And the Cubs are a big team. Like
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: you're not really going to overlook the Cubs necessarily, but
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: the spot is not very good for Miami. I just,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: on the surface, I was looking at this and I'm like,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Miami's in a bad spot and the Cubs have the
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher on the mound. So I think more
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: things indicate towards the Cubs in this game. And I,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Did consider making the Cubs a play here, but I
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: don't really love the price. I don't really love some
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: of the aspects of this, like the fact that the
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: Cubs are coming off a huge game themselves. They just
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: had that four-game series against the Brewers. They won yesterday,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: so both teams played yesterday. Cubs starting a road trip.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Normally that is a better spot. You get the team
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip over the team returning home from one.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: That would be the way that I prefer to look
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: at a situational situation. Game like this. But the Cubs
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: could be in a letdown spot too because that was
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: a big series against Milwaukee. They might not pay as
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: much attention to a team like Miami. Bullpen wise, both
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: of these bullpens are decent. The Cubs used two guys
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen it looks like. Miami used three.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Miami is ranked sixth in bullpen but their ERA is
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: above four so they're not that good Cubs are 13th
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: their ERA is also above four but it's lower than
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Miami's I still consider these to be decent bullpens though
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Cubs are number one in offense so they've been really
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: really raking recently while the Dodgers have fallen off a
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: little bit the Cubs have been very good offensively Miami
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: number 10 tied with Atlanta and and the A's Cubs
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: are definitely the better offense here and I I think
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: you have to say the Cubs have the better starter here.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: Shota Imanaga is pitching for them. 4.01 ERA, but I
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: keep saying he's better than his ERA looks. You've seen
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: what he's done the last couple years. His whip is
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: also good, 1.14. I think he's getting unlucky, and a
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: lot of it is home runs that are coming against
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: him in Wrigley. He's been better on the road, 3.65
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: road ERA. So put him in this pitcher-friendly ballpark in Miami.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: I think he should pitch a lot better. He was
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: bad last time out against Cincinnati. He gave up a
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: bunch of home runs in that one. I think we
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: lost on the under in that game, or first five under.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: I think it was Imanaga against Burns. They didn't do well.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: It is what it is, but Imanaga continues to post
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: a really good strikeout walk ratio. Really high strikeouts, really
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: low walks, but he's been hittable. He's allowed way too
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: many hits and way too many home runs recently. His
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: ERA in the month of August, six plus 29 hits
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: allowed and nine home runs allowed in 22 thirds innings.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Way, way, way too hittable, man. But
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: the Cubs won four starts in a row before that
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: last start of visit they lost. I still, after all that,
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: even though Imanaga, maybe not the greatest form right now here,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: command number's still really good. His whip still suggests that
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: he's better than his ERA. Makes him look. His numbers
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: the last two years suggest that he's better than his
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: ERA looks this year. His hit rate is reasonably low
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: this year. His walk rate is low. His strikeout rate
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: is fairly high. Those numbers all look good. 4.2 strikeout
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. It's not as good as what he's done
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: in the past, but it's still pretty good. And his
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, also pretty good. Close to nine, 8.9.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Imanaga against the Miami Marlins. They basically haven't even seen
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: him somehow. Only Lopez has ever faced him. He's 0
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: for 5 with a strikeout. So Imanaga's actually unfamiliar to Miami,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: so I think he will pitch well here. He pitches
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: better on the road. This is a pitcher-friendly park. This
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: is a lineup that I think he draws a good
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: matchup with here against a lineup that hasn't been, I
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: don't think they've been as good recently, and they don't
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: know what they're about to run into here. Jansen Junk
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: on the other side, he's not a good pitcher, really.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: A 4.11 ERA, 1.3 whip. I mean, I guess... Those
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: are mediocre numbers. He is better at home, 3.62 home ERA.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Miami has won four of his last five starts or
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: four of his last five appearances. I don't know if
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: they were all starts, which is the other thing, by
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: the way. If you're going to play this game, I
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: might pick Imanaga must start for the Cubs, but don't
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: pick a starter for Miami because they do some weird stuff.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: They might put an opener in front of Junk. He
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: is probably coming into this game, though. Now, Junk, he's
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: not allowed many runs recently, but he is a Junk pitcher.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: He's just not striking anybody out. He's just pitching to contact,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: and the advanced analytics guys don't like that. In his case,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I don't really love that. His hit rate is too high.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: It's above one per inning on the season. He doesn't
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: walk many guys, so that's good. Does not strike anybody
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: out really either, though, so that's not good. Strikeout walk ratio, 2.5
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: is not great. Strikeout per nine obviously is not going
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: to be good, 6.1. Junk against the Cubs. is actually good.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: They only have 11 at-bats against them, though. Seven of
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced them. The only hit is a
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: double from Arias. Three strikeouts, one walk. 0-91 average, 348 OPS.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: So both pitchers actually have decent matchup stats here. I
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: still think I like the Cubs here, given it's a
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: bad situation for Miami in the return home spot. Imanaga
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: is still better than Junk, and I think he's better
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: than his numbers suggest. People might look at this and think, oh,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Junk has the better ERA here. whatever. I mean, the
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: public is still on the Cubs though. 77% of tickets
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: on them, but 83% of the money on them. They've
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: already gone all the way up into the minus 150 range.
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: So if you do play the Cubs, you have to
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: like lay a minus one run line with them. I
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: don't think I'd really want to do it, but I
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: would lean to the Cubs here. I'd lean under as well.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, the total is at eight. It's not a
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: very high total money seems slightly on the over, but
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: it's also a very public over and you saw the
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers or what the matchups look like here. I
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: think both starters could do well. I think both bullpens
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: are reasonably trustworthy here. So I think an under makes
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: some sense in that game. Maybe it's better than the
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: side just because you have to pay so much for
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, but I would lean to the Cubs in
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: that game as well. Already talked about the Detroit Cleveland doubleheader,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at the Mets. The Mets are returning home,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: but it was only a single series road trip to Tampa.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: So it's not one of those prolonged road trips. So
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: that makes the road trip return a little bit more easy. Still,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: it is a road trip return. But the Mets, they've
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: been playing reasonably well recently. They're trying to win games,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: so give them credit for that. They're still putting in effort.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: They're returning home now, but are they really going to
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: be focused on the Giants? I don't know, man. Maybe
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: they'll be a little bit unfocused still because they did
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: just beat the Rays. That was still kind of a
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: big series, beating one of the better teams in the
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: AL and now returning home from that. Maybe not the
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: greatest spot for the Mets here, but... The Mets should
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: have the starting pitching edge here, I would think. Um,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: maybe both pitchers could do well here. San Francisco, they're
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: coming in from Pittsburgh. They played yesterday though. So the
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: Mets have a rest edge here. So keep that in mind.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: Although the Mets are returning home from that road trip,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: but it was a quick road trip, but yeah, the
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: Mets did not play yesterday. San Francisco did. San Francisco
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers in that loss at Pittsburgh yesterday.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: The Mets have the better bullpen and they're more rested.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: They're ranked seventh in bullpen. Um, San Francisco, not great, 24th.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: So the Mets definitely have a bullpen edge here. Better
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen plus more rest. Hitting-wise, San Francisco is the better
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: offensive team, even though I think they're overrated at wherever
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: I said they were. Where are they at? 18th or something? Yeah,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: tied in 18th with Baltimore and Philadelphia. I don't think
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: they're that good, but the Mets are 26th. Mets have
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: kind of been a bit better over the last couple months,
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: but yeah, San Francisco probably is the slightly better offense,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: but I think we are dealing with two Pretty weak
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: offenses here. Matt Wilkinson, the tugboat, is pitching for San
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Francisco here. Tugboat still doesn't have a picture. They should
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: put a picture of a tugboat up here, man. That's
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: what Sleeper would do if you play fantasy on Sleeper.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: But yeah, he still doesn't have his picture on ESPN.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: He's got a 4.63 ERA so far, but he does
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: have a pretty good 1.11 whip. although he's struggled on
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: the road so far. 6.35 road ERA. Tugboat has only
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: made three starts so far, and they've ramped him up
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: with each start. So he's thrown basically 30 more pitches
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: in each start. It looks like they're basically going 30, 60,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: 90 with this pitch count here. And his last start
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: was good. It was a quality start against Arizona. They
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: lost the game, but it wasn't his fault. He held
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: them to two runs in six innings. Pretty good outing
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: from him. Only three hits, two walks, four strikeouts. Now,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: he looks like he's not a big strikeout guy. He's
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: been decent overall, but not many walks allowed, that's for sure.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: But he doesn't look like he's a great strikeout pitcher.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: So he does have a three strikeout walk ratio right now.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per nine, very low though, 4.6. So he's going
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: to have to do better than that with his strikeouts.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: But I think he's better than his ERA makes him
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: look so far. He's going up against a Mets team
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: that hasn't faced him before. I know I'm not showing
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: the Mets right now, but they definitely haven't seen him.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: He's only made those three starts in his major league career.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: he might, he might do well here against an offense.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: It's not really that good that hasn't seen him before.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: So he might do all right. But of course, you know,
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: I like Nolan McClain who's on the other side. Uh,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: it doesn't have a cool nickname. I don't think, but
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: three point Nolan, uh, the, the, the main brain McClain,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: how about that? Um, Aqua teen hunger force reference there. Um,
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: What was it, Wayne the main brain McLean or something?
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: The super trivia night. Nobody knows what I'm talking about.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: Really under the radar. Pretty hilarious show, though. 3.06 ERA
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: for McLean. 1.12 whip. Good stuff on the season, man.
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: One thing you might have to worry about is his
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: innings pitched. 155 and two-thirds, so he is getting up
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: there in innings pitched. And he's shown a little bit
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: of wear here. Like his walk number has gone way
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: up recently. However, he's allowed one or fewer earned run
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: in each of his last four starts. So he's still
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: allowed very few runs. He's still going pretty deep into
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: most of these outings. At least six innings in all
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: those outings. The walks are a concern, though. 24-16 strikeout
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: walk ratio in August, but a very low hit rate.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: 18 in 30 innings and a 2.1 ERA overall. He's
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: still pitching well, but not as well as maybe it looks,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: because again, the walks are a bit of a concern,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: and his innings pitch is kind of concerning, because he's
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: one of these young guys that's thrown way more innings
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: than he ever has before, but he still looks fairly
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: good here, man. Although his strikeout rate has gone down
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit here. Maybe he's wearing out a little bit.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. His
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: walk rate has gone up a bit. His walk rate's
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: not really that good. His strikeout rate is good on
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: the season, which is maintaining a 2.8 strikeout walk ratio,
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: which With his stuff, you'd want that to be better.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: He's got to get that walk number down. Strikeout for
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: nine is pretty good, 9.9, and that's gone down recently.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: McClain draws a pretty weak lineup he gets to face here, though.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, only Devers and Lee have ever faced him before.
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: They're 0 for 4 with a strikeout and no walks combined. So,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: you know, you probably know where I'm going with this.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: I think the under might be the best way to
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: play this one. It looks like a very public over,
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: 85% of the tickets, although 87% of the cash as well.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: Totals eight. I like both starters here. I like the
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Mets bullpen. I don't love San Francisco's bullpen. Maybe they
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: hold up well enough. You could go first five under
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: here as well. I think some sort of under is
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: probably the best way to look at this game. The
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: money's fading the Mets, which I don't really agree with,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: except maybe it's because of the price and maybe the
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: return home spot, I guess, even though it's a short
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: road trip return spot. 78% of tickets, 65% of the
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: cash on the Mets. The money is fading them. Maybe
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: Tugboat is a little bit underrated here. Minus 190 being
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: the price on the Mets. That is a pretty high
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: price for the Mets, man. McClain getting a lot of
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: respect in the market. He deserves respect, but maybe... Maybe
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: not this amount of respect. I don't know, man. I
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: do like McLean still, though. When I first looked at this,
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: I kind of thought maybe the Mets. But the more
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: I dug into it, yeah, I'm thinking under is the
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: better approach in this game. But we'll see, man. I
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: still think the Mets probably should be able to get
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: that thing done. And McLean probably has the ability to
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: outlast Wilkinson in this game. You know what I mean?
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: So Mets have a rest edge. And that was the
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: other reason why I was kind of thinking Mets here.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: rest edge plus the already better of the two bullpens,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: and San Francisco's already somewhat used bullpen might have to
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: enter the equation earlier, although I know it's September call-ups,
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: more arms, whatever, but yeah, I think more things indicate
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: towards the Mets side there, but you'd have to make
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: like a minus, do like a minus one and a
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: half run line, I would not want to do that
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: with a team that can't really hit, so yeah, I
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: like the under in that game better than anything else.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Minnesota at the White Sox, we have another big divisional
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: battle here. The AL Central, all divisional battles except Kansas City.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: Kansas City probably like, what did we do, man? Kansas City,
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: I forget who they're playing. They're playing somebody out of division, though.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: The White Sox just lost to the Astros yesterday. They're
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip. where they just played Minnesota,
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: by the way, and they won that series against Minnesota,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: so this might be a little bit of revenge time
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: for Minnesota, even though, well, yeah, the White Sox are
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: ahead of Minnesota in the standings, too, so the White
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: Sox still atop the AL center. They still need to win,
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: but Minnesota might be a little bit extra motivated because
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: they're still not out of it, and it's kind of
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: a road revenge angle here where I talk about this
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: when a team just recently went on the road and
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: beat a team, and now those teams are playing again.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: A lot of times that uh, road team. Um, the
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: second time after they lost at home, they'll bounce back
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: and they'll do better in the next game or next series.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: So that would be the twins. So there might be
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit of extra motivation on the twins. Plus
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: white socks, return home spot, not a great spot coming
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: off a pretty big series against the Astros. Although they
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: lost the series could be a distraction spot here, man.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Even though I know it's a big divisional series, I
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: don't love the spot for the white socks here. Um,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: The White Sox also played yesterday. So Minnesota actually has
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage here too. So that's another advantage for
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: Minnesota here. So I was thinking of putting Minnesota on
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: my card. There were just things that I didn't feel
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: great about. Minnesota did just lose to the Tigers pretty badly. Wait,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: was that yesterday too? No, it wasn't because I said
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: the Tigers were off yesterday too. Yeah, so Minnesota was
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: off yesterday. They're coming off an ugly loss to the
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: Tigers today. That did end a three-game winning streak for them.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: So maybe that would hang them over a little bit,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: but I don't think so. I think after an ugly
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: home loss, you go on the road. I think you're focused.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: So I think the spot is a lot better for
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: Minnesota here. So I like the Minnesota side here. You
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: know I don't like their bullpen, though. So I would
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: still fade their bullpen or avoid it, even though the
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: White Sox did play yesterday. They only used two relief pitchers.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: That's not really a big deal. White Sox have the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. They're No.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: 14 overall.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: Twins are number 28, very bad bullpen. So I would
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: avoid Minnesota's bullpen still. Minnesota, number nine in offense, not
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: tied with anybody, excuse me. White Sox, 13th. Maybe Minnesota
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: is slightly better offensively. I think it's close between these
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: two offenses. On the surface, I like Minnesota's starting pitcher
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: better here too. It's Zebby, Zebulon. Zebby Matt uses pitching
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: from Minnesota. His numbers don't tell the whole story here. 4.58
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: ERA and 1.26 whip is not that bad. Indicates his
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: ERA should be better, but he's definitely been better recently. However,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I really want to back him
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: on the road. 6.38 road ERA. He's way worse on
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: the road, so that does concern me. He's been awesome recently, though.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: His last three starts, he's allowed one run apiece in
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: each of them.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: He's been.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Not allowing guys to reach base. He's not striking out
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: a ton of guys, but he's really not walking, guys.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's been okay. The Twins have won his
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: last six starts, or last seven starts now. No, six.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, six. My stroke brain, man. I can't see
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: how many lines there are here. Yeah, Matthews is in
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: good form right now. He just pitched against the White Sox, though,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: and he shredded them. It was one of his best starts.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: Eight and third innings, one run allowed. No walks, five hits,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts. Really good start from Matthews. But that was
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: at home. where he is better, and I believe we
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: had a winner on the show on that. Am I
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: right about that? I know I gave you guys Minnesota with,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: I think it was with Zebby on the mound in
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: one of these recent games. I forget which one. Maybe
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: I'm wrong about that. I know I gave up Minnesota
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: as a play somewhat recently, though, in a first five capacity,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: and they won. Now, Matthews, he's in good form, man.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: He just faced the White Sox, so the White Sox
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: are more familiar with him after that, but they're already
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: familiar with him. They have 79 at-bats against him, and
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: they have not done well So even when Matthews wasn't
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: pitching as well earlier in his career, the White Sox
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: still didn't do damage. 177 average, 536 OPS against 16-3
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So Matthews has the upper hand against
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. So yeah, his road numbers aren't good,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: but his current form's really good. His matchup numbers look good.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: So that does help. I do kind of like Minnesota here, man.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: And the White Sox, they have Eric Fetty listed as
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: a starter. What I would say is, They might put
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: an opener in front of him. I think you will
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: get Fetty for a majority of the pitching capacities here,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: or pitching capacity, pitching duties, but I would say if
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: you're going to play this game, I would pick Matthews
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: as a must-start. Don't pick a starter for the White
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: Sox because they might do something screwy and put an
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: opener in front of Fetty, but I think you will
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: see Eric Fetty in this game. He's been not as
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: bad as... I mean, I give him a lot of crap,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't been that bad this year. 4.16 ERA, 1.37
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely not great, though. He's been okay at home, 3.38
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He's been all right recently. He hasn't allowed
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: many runs in his recent outings. He hasn't gone deep
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: into these games. He did just face Minnesota, so both
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: pitchers just faced these opposing offenses. And he did okay
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: in that outing, whatever it was. I guess it was
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: a start. He got the win in the game. He
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: went five innings, allowed two runs. He was all right
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: in that one. His hit rate is too high on
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: the season. It's above one per inning. Gives up a
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: lot of home runs, which isn't very good. He's definitely
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher. His walk rate is not great.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's not great, so none of those numbers
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: look good. Strikeout walk ratio at 2, yeah, that's not good.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per 9, 6.4, also not good. However, he is
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit better right now, and he is
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: actually pretty good against Minnesota. They have 53 at-bats against him,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: 151 average, 441 OPS, 15-6 strikeout walk ratio, so I
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: don't know if I necessarily want to do it, man.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: I do like Minnesota in this game, though. The money
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: seems like it's slightly disagreeing with this, although initially the
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: White Sox dropped from minus 138 down to minus 120.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that was because of a pitching
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: change or if it was actual money, but they have
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: 76% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them, the
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: White Sox. But I think they're going to be public,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: and I would fade them, man. Again, it's a return
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: home spot for the White Sox. Minnesota has a rest
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: edge here. Plus, I prefer Matthews over Feddey. even though
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: the home road splits don't favor it. Current form, I think,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: does favor it because Matthews has been excellent recently. Matchup
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: numbers are good on both sides, but I prefer Matthews here.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: So I like Minnesota in the first five in this one.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: You'll probably get the, I don't know, it'd be probably
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: around a pick-em price with them in the first five
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: because oddsmakers probably know Minnesota's advantage, if there is any,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: is in the first five here. But I think that's
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: what I like, given the situation and whatever. Money's also
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: playing the over here. I think I like the first
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: five under, though. Both pitchers seem like they have good
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here, so first five under makes some sense.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: Full game totals at nine, though, so it's absolutely not
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: a low total here. So expected to be some runs
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: in this game in the full game, but I kind
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: of like how both pitchers match up here. So I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: think first five under is on the table in this game,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: but my preference would be to take the Minnesota side
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: in the first five there. I think that's what I
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: would do. Tampa Bay at Texas. I'm trying to get
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: through these games here, man. We're already well over an hour.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: I still have to talk about college football.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: At least there's no WNBA. Texas won yesterday 6-0, man.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: Cal Quantrill. Pitching well again yesterday. The under hit, I
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: did like the under yesterday. It was fairly close because
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: I think it was probably a 7.5 total there. But yeah,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: it wound up 6-0 Texas with the win yesterday. Will
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: Texas be able to keep that up? I don't know.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, Texas is going to be motivated here because
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: they're trying to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay is still
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: trying to maintain their lead in the AL East, though.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: So I think both teams are going to be motivated here.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: Is Texas a little bit undervalued here? I don't know.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: Texas used two elite pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen has not
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: been great, though. Tampa Bay only used one. Tampa Bay
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: is number four in bullpen. However, their ERA is above four,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: so I don't think they're that good, but they're not
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: a bad bullpen. Texas has struggled out of the bullpen.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: They're 20th. They're ERA in the mid-fours. So Tampa does
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen edge here. Tampa also has the better offense.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: They're ranked eighth. Texas is 17th, so there is an
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: edge there for Tampa as well. They probably have the
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: better pitcher on the mound here as well, Nick Martinez.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: I know the advanced analytics guys give him a bunch
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: of crap because he doesn't strike guys out, but he's
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: consistently pitching effectively, though. 2.99 ERA, 1.1 whip. That is
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: obviously not bad. He's been really good on the road, 1.96
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Still pitching well after he had a couple
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: of kind of questions. Well, one really bad start against Toronto.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: The one against the A's where he allowed four runs,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: you kind of give him a pass for that because
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: he pitched all nine innings, so that wasn't bad. He's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: had really good command numbers recently. He's hardly walking anybody.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: And in fact, six of his last seven starts, he's
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: issued no walks. So that's pretty insane. His hit rate
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: is a little bit questionable, but he really doesn't put
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys on base. He's got a decent
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is extremely low,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: but his strikeout rate is also low. So he does
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: put balls over the plate and pitch to contact. 4.1
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, though, that's pretty good. He walks so
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: few people. 5.3 strikeout per nine is not good, though.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: His strikeout capacity is definitely diminished since he is getting older,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: but he's still having a really good season, man. I
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: know pitching to contact isn't the best thing, but he's
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: consistently doing it and pitching effectively. His numbers against Texas, though,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: are not very good. In 36 at-bats, 278 average, 917 OPS,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: 12-3 strikeout walk ratio. The ratio's good, but the rest
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: of those numbers, not good. So that has me a
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: little bit concerned with Martinez. It was going to be
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: Kumar Rocker in this game, but now it looks like
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: there's a pitching change, and it looks like Texas is
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: actually going with Trevor Williams. who yeah I don't think
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: he's good um let's just put it that way um
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: I know I remember him being on Washington he wasn't
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: particularly good um He's not on their depth chart, so
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: he must be, it's like a spot start for them here.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: They're pushing Kumar Rocker back. I don't know if it's
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: like a rest thing or what the deal is, but
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: I believe Williams will be getting the start here. Although
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: if you're worried about that, if you want to play
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: this game, you can pick Martinez must start and don't
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: pick a starter for Texas. But I think it will
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: be Williams or some sort of bullpen game for Texas
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: that involves Williams in some way. He's got a 3.93
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: ERA this year, but a 1.42 whip is not very good.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: He's pretty much pitched entirely out of the bullpen, but
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: he was on Washington, I think, for the whole season,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: and Texas just picked him up. I don't even think
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: he's pitched for Texas yet. I could be wrong. He
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: might have actually, let me see. No, he did. He
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: pitched in this one game against the A's. for Texas,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: and he was not good at all. He allowed three runs.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: It was not at the A's stadium either. It was
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: at home. He gave up three runs in one of
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: the third innings. That's not a good sign, so I
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: don't consider him to be trustworthy here. His numbers against
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, they're not bad in 22 at-bats. They only
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: have five hitters who have faced him, though. 273 average
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: isn't great, but a 577 OPS is low. They have
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: not hit him for power at all. No extra base hits.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: Five strikeouts, one walk. Do I trust him, though? Not really.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on Tampa Bay here. I think
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: generally I would kind of agree with that. Martinez, I
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: know his matchup numbers are bad, but he's better than
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: whatever Texas is doing with their pitching here. 79% of tickets,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash on Tampa. They opened a favorite
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: and it flipped over to Texas being a favorite at
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: minus 110 or something. It looks too easy to play
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: Tampa to me, though, and Martinez doesn't have good matchup numbers,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: so I don't think I'd really want to play Tampa
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: here either. I don't want Texas either. I think maybe
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: you could play the over in this game. I know
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: it's a game in Texas, but Martinez, bad matchup numbers, though.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: I know he's been pretty good this year. He's been
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: good on the road. This pitching setup for Texas looks
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: real ugly. Over makes sense to me. 73% of tickets,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: 93% of the cash on the over. Eight is the
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: total in that one. It's a reasonable total there. And,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: you know, if you don't want to play the full
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: game total, if you want to maybe take Martinez out
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: of the equation because he might do well or he
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: might not, I mean, I guess you could also do
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: Tampa over their team total here. And they'll need to
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: score probably, you might need them to only get to
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: five in the game, which is, they're definitely capable of
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: doing that. After they scored zero yesterday, maybe it will
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: be kind of an offensive bounce-back situation for them. Arizona's
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: playing Houston. Man, this show's taking forever. Houston played yesterday.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Arizona was off, so Arizona has a rest advantage here.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: Houston is staying at home. They just had a big
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: win over the White Sox in that series yesterday. Houston
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: still needs to win because they're fighting for their division. However,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: they're coming off that big series. Arizona has a rest
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: edge here, and Arizona... They did just come off a
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: big series against the Phillies, but they ended a three-game
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: losing streak, so that might give them some new momentum.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Starting a road trip, usually a positive spot. Travel from
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: Arizona to Houston with a day off is not exactly
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: a terrible travel leg there. So Arizona does have a
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: situational edge in this game. The pitching in this game
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: is just real ugly, though, man. It's actually kind of
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: hard to figure out. Houston had to use some relievers yesterday.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: They used three while Arizona was off, so I think
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: Arizona has a bullpen edge here. They're number eight in bullpen. Houston,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: number 12. The ERAs are pretty similar, but with the rest,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: Arizona probably does have a slight bullpen edge here. Hitting-wise,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: Houston is the better team. They're number 14. Arizona's 22nd.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Merrill Kelly is pitching for Arizona, though. I mean, he's really, really,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: really fallen off this year. His worst... season of his career,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, and I don't think it's even that close.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: Unless he had a bad one really early in his
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: career or something. 5.08 ERA, 1.48 whip, not pitching well here. However,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: he's been better on the road, 4.35 road ERA. He
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: doesn't pitch that well in Arizona's hitter-friendly stadium anymore. Kelly
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: was okay in his last two starts, although he still
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: walked way too many guys. He looks like he's been
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: all right over his last two starts, but in the
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: month of August, he had a 24-22 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: That is horrific. Way too many walks, and not really
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: an impressive strikeout rate either, but he's not pitching well.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: He's putting a ton of guys on base via the walk,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: and in fact, he had three-plus walks in every start
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: in the month of August. He can't do that, man.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: On top of that, his hit rate is too high
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: on the season, well over one per inning. Home run
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty bad, too. Walk rate is also bad.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate is low. I mean, Kelly's been pretty awful
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: this year. Really ugly. 1.5 strikeout walk ratio, which is
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: by far the worst of his career. It's an awful number.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: Six strikeout per nine, also the worst of his career.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: I think he's going to retire, man. I mean, I
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: know it might seem like he might have a couple
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: years left, like, He's 37, but the way he's pitched
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: this year, it looks like he's pretty much done. I mean,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: this is not good. Kelly against, who are we talking
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: about here again? Houston. He's been good against Houston this career.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: 89 at-bats, 213 average, 543 OPS, 18-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: But will the current version of Merrill Kelly be able
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: to pitch well against them?
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think he has not pitched against him this year,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: so those numbers are all accumulated when Kelly was pitching better.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, he is better on the
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: road at least, and he does have good matchup numbers
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: against Houston at least, so there are a lot of
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: conflicting things going on in this game. Houston's going with
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: Christian Javier. He has not been able to bounce back
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: from his injuries or whatever. He is not pitching well
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: at all. 6.45 ERA, 1.63 whip. He's had some decent
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: seasons in his career this season. I know it's been
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: a shortened season for him, but things are not going well.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: He's pretty much the same home and away. He's bad
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: either way. I guess slightly better at home. He's not
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: pitching deep into his outings. Houston lost every one of
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: his outings in August, all five of them. Some against
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: some bad offenses in here too. That's not a good sign.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: He faced Toronto, Anaheim, the Mets all in that month there. Yeah,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: not good. Not a lot to like here, except he
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: did have a 21 to four strikeout walk ratio in August.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: That is actually good. Um, He wasn't walking anybody, and
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of times he does have walk problems, but
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: he's just way too hittable, though. He's given up way
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: too many hits in his short season so far. The
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: walk number's not really that good either. The strikeout rate
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: is okay, but he's putting a ton of guys on base. 2.2
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is no good. 8.5 strikeout per nine
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: is decent, but way too hittable, way too many walks.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: Javier against the Diamondbacks has been good, but short sample size,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: small sample size, 26 at-bats, seven hitters have faced him,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: 5-0 strikeout walk ratio, 192 average, 654 OPS, and Arenado
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: has two home runs off him, so almost all the
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: damage is coming from him. The only other extra base
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: hit is a double from Kepler. So we have two
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: pitchers that are pitching horribly this year, but they both
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers here. How do we weigh that, right? Like,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think the current form is kind
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: of more important, and I think that means probably looking
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: towards an over in this game. I know Arizona does
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: have the, they probably are the more desperate team, let's
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: put it that way, because Houston's atop their division right now.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: Arizona's fighting for their lives for a wild card spot,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: and Arizona does have the rest edge. So Arizona is
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: maybe the right side here. And the money's coming in
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: that way. 74% of tickets on Houston, 73% of the
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: cash on Arizona. If you play Arizona, it's mostly a
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: situational play, which I'm very, very situational, but not in baseball, really. Baseball,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: I try to factor in everything. I think the matchups
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: matter more in baseball than in other sports, so I'm
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: purely situational, pretty much. Minus 130 is the price on
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: Houston here. Some of it has to do with the price, too.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: Should Javier really be a favorite like that? I don't know.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: But I think if I was going to play this game,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: I would just play the over, I think. I think
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: basically it's simple. I mean, both pitchers have been awful
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: this season. You're probably going to see runs here. You
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: might be able to find an 8.5. It looks like
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: it's mostly up to 9 now. Some real money has
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: come in on the over here. 50% of tickets on
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: the over, 90% of the cash on the over. So
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: the market is definitely signaling on the over here. I
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: would prefer to have an 8.5 because 9 is a
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: key number. Over 9 is definitely still worth probably considering
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: in this game at the very least. But yeah, the
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: money is coming in on Arizona as well. I think
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: I said that. 74% of tickets on Houston, 73% of
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: the cash on Arizona. I won't disagree with Arizona, but again,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: if you play Arizona, it's pretty much just entirely a
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: situational play. I think I'd prefer to be on the
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: over in that game. I'll be right back. I don't
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: have any more baseball plays. I do have one college
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: football play. I'll be back and do all that, and
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: then I have to come back tonight and do the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: full-blown college football show. Week one is kind of dangerous, though, man,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: so I tread lightly. We'll see what I wind up having,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: but I do like the play I'm going to give
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: out for tonight, though. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight was just
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start off
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5, I don't even know what
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: to tell you about that. I just don't want to
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: day at all, 0-4, have not had a good season
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: man with Wiccans slump that I'm on the slump continues I've.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: Reached a new peak actually I'm gonna burn my Bruins
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: hat man I don't know what is going on with
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: the Bruins March 8th is that what it is I
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: don't even know it's March 9th I think who even
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: knows man I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: possibly have. Back with you as I always am. Until
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: go well for me.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: 0-5.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. Took the slump yesterday as the
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: slump discontinued yesterday. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: Next baseball game is Toronto-Kansas City. That's who Kansas City
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: gets to play. While their whole division is facing each other,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: Kansas City gets to play Toronto. Both teams played yesterday,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: so there's no rest edge here. Toronto probably has more
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: motivation because they're technically not eliminated from the playoffs yet.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, they're out of it. They did win yesterday.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: We got the win with them on the show in
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: the first five. They won the full game as well.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: It was a little bit dicey for sure. They had
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: to win the game in the fifth inning, but they won.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: They're staying at home here. They broke a three-game losing streak.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: So Kansas City, I mean, they're playing all right recently.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: They've won a decent amount of games recently, so they're
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: definitely not just a total doormat here. Toronto, I mean,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: they're coming up a big series against Cleveland. Could it
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: be a letdown spot here? Maybe. They're traveling from Cleveland
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: into Kansas City now. Beating Cleveland, who's one of the
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: other wildcard contenders the last two games. Pretty big, though,
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: for Toronto. Toronto's playing decent recently, though. They swept the
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: Mariners and then took that series from Cleveland, so they're
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: beating these other playoff contending teams here. And I do
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: think I kind of lean to Toronto here. I mean,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: I just think Toronto has a better pitching setup in
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: this one, even though they might, I guess, debatably be
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: in a little bit of a letdown spot here. Toronto
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers yesterday. With the expanded bullpens, I've
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: got to scroll down. Kansas City used three. It doesn't matter, though.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: Toronto's obviously the better bullpen. Toronto's ranked 16th, but they're
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: not that bad of a bullpen. And Kansas City's 29th.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: They're definitely not good. As far as the hitting, Toronto
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: is pretty weak, 27th. But Kansas City, well, Kansas City's
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: been better recently. They're up to 16th, and they are
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: better at home. So, all right, we'll give Kansas City
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: the offensive edge here. Toronto's got Jamison Ty on pitching.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: He's coming back from the injured list. I talk about
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: this when a veteran pitcher comes back from the injured list.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: I actually kind of look to back them because I
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: think they've gone through that rehab. They're pumped up to
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: get back out there. In his case, he's a veteran,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: but he also wasn't even on the injured list for
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: very long. Toronto traded for him around the trade deadline.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: He made two appearances with them, and he got hurt again.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: His season doesn't look good. I know most of it
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs, 5.6 ADRA and 1.37 whip. He's probably
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: not happy about going from the Cubs to Toronto. Didn't
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: pitch that well in his first game with Toronto, which
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: I think was this one against Houston. Did pitch pretty
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: well against the Red Sox after that, although his walk
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: number was definitely concerning across those two starts. But he
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: shut out the Red Sox for four innings, only allowed
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: one hit. Then he went down, got injured. To me,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: it looks like he's kind of trending in the right direction, though.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: Look at his season, though. His hit rate was mediocre.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: His walk rate was too high. His strikeout rate was, like, okay.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: So not that I really love here, but you look
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: at what he's done throughout his career, he's been a
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: pretty good pitcher, man, and he's not that old yet, 34.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: So you've got to think the season's just been kind
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: of derailed by injuries. I think it's kind of a
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: fluke season. I think at some point he's going to
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: kind of get these numbers better. He's not as bad
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: as these numbers would suggest, let's put it that way,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: based on what we've seen throughout his career. This year
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: he does have a 2.3 strikeout walk ratio, which is
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: not very good. But an eight strikeout per nine is
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: not exactly bad. It's kind of in line with what
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: he's always done. Tyon is not good on the road
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: this year, though. 7.19 roadie array. Or should we pronounce
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: it Tyon and go really French with it? Yamasol Tyon. No,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I took French, but my accent for
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: it is, like, totally gone now. 7.19 roadie array, though.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Tyon against, let me see. Against Kansas City,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: has been good. And 28 at-bats, not a big sample here,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: but most of their hitters have faced him. 179 average,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: 519 OPS, 8-2 strikeout walk ratio. So I think he
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: can do well here. Has a good matchup, at least, here.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: But with Kansas City, maybe you have to worry about
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: Tyone being a bit... home run heavy or whatever, but
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: I think he's got to have the upper hand over
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell Kansas City is doing here, and I
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: think if you're going to play this game, I would
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: pick Ty on my start for Toronto. Don't pick a
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: starter for Kansas City, because Kansas City looks like they're
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: kind of going with a bullpen-ish game here. Daniel Lynch
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: IV is listed as a starter here. He's had a
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: good season, but most of this was in relief, and
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: since they've kind of moved him to sort of a
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: starting role, he has not really been that good. His
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: ERA in August was nearly 6, with a 12-7 strikeout
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, and That's not good, man. He wasn't really
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: going deep into most of those outings. You're probably going
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: to get a lot of Kansas City's bullpen here. I
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: don't think that's a good thing, obviously. I don't think
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: we really have to handicap Lynch much in depth here.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, it just doesn't look great to me. Although
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: Toronto's been good against him in 51 at-bats,. 353 average,.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: 899 OPS, 5-3 strikeout walk ratio. Seven of their hitters
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: have faced him. I think I'd have to play Toronto
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: if I was going to play this one. I'm not
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: going to do it, but it looks like they're getting
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: the money. 52% of tickets, 78% of the cash on them. However,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: it looks pretty odd to see Kansas City favored here.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: The odds makers hate Kansas City. They almost never favor
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. And as a public bettor, you would think
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: the public would come in and want Toronto. Why would
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: you want Kansas City? You're getting the team with the
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: better record. Toronto is an underdog here. So that kind
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: of scares me. It looks kind of too easy to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: take Toronto, but I think it's the right way. Uh,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: I think you're getting the starting pitching edge and the
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge and probably the motivational edge as well. Money
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: seems to agree 52% of tickets, 78% of the cash
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: on them. You get them as a slight underdog here
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: as well. And the money's kind of hitting the under here.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: Total's high nine and a half, 10. Usually when it's
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: a high total like that, the odds makers are kind
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: of signaling to you that the over might be the
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: right way to look. But, um, I don't know, man.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: The money coming in on the under in that one,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great read on that, but you
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: are looking at some offenses that aren't that great, but
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: it is a more hitter-friendly ballpark there, and the pitching
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: isn't exactly great there. St. Louis at Colorado. Colorado has
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: a rest edge here. They're staying at home. They just
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: beat the Orioles in the last series. So, I mean,
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: Colorado's playing somewhat competitively, at least individually. playing out the
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: stretch here. St. Louis is going to be at a
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: rest disadvantage and possibly a letdown because they just played
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers the last three days and they won the
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: series and then almost won the last game too. So St.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: Louis could be in a letdown having to go into
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: elevation here with no rest. I mean, it does not
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: look like a good spot for St. Louis. So I
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: think the spot play would actually be to be looking
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: towards Colorado here. I've had a couple of losers with
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: Colorado first five plays that I'm not happy about that.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: I think we're Somewhat close, especially the last one. St.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: Louis used four relief pitchers yesterday. I don't want to
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: deal with Colorado's bullpen either, though. I mean, these are
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: two bad bullpens. St. Louis is 22nd, plus they're kind
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: of unrested here. Colorado is 27th. I don't want to
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: deal with either bullpen in this one. As far as
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: the hitting is concerned, Colorado is better. They're number four,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: tied with Milwaukee.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: St.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: Louis is 25th, so not a good offense. St. Louis
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: was going to go with Kyle Leahy, but they actually
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: changed their pitching rotation around. It's going to be Andre
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: Payante in this one. And Leahy has actually been pitching
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: a bit better recently. Payante's had an okay season too.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting move. I think both pitchers are probably
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: going to pitch in this series. It's just because Payante's
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: coming off the DL. I think they just figure, all right,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: let's bring him back now because he's ready to go.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: Give our other starters a little bit of rest here.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: So Payante is coming back from the injured list. Like
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: I said, I like to play on pitchers that do
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: that if they're veterans. I would consider him to be
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: a veteran at this point. He's had multiple seasons at
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: this point in the majors. So a lot of times
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: those guys are ready to go. They're pumped up to
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: get back out there. He's actually had an okay season,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: even though I don't think he's a great pitcher. 3.57 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: Wasn't good in his last start. Cincinnati got 10 hits
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: off him in six innings. That's not good. In his
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: prior two starts, he walked too many guys. He only
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: allowed one run. One run across 11 and a third
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: innings against the Phillies and the Yankees there. So he
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: is actually generally kind of pitching okay. He's not allowing
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: that many runs here. Has a decent hit rate over
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: the course of the season. His walk rate's not great.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's not great. He is a very heavy
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: ground ball pitcher, though, and that should help him in
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: course field. He's not really a home run pitcher. He's
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: only allowed 10 home runs this year, so that should
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: give him an upper hand in Colorado. At least his
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: style of pitching is more conducive. to pitching in a
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: high-elevation scenario. He's also better on the road, a 2.93
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: road ERA with a. 213 upon a batting average, so
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: that's not bad either. So his splits favor this. His
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: style of pitching isn't bad for this stadium either. Overall numbers, 2.4
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is not great, although it is actually
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: his best that he's posted in his career. His career
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: numbers are actually worse than what he's posted this year.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: He's actually having his best season. Strikeout per nine is
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: kind of in line with where it usually is, 6.4.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: That's not great. Problem is, he's not good against Colorado.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Colorado are not good. Let me bring it up.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: 27 at-bats, not a huge sample, but they have a.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: 370 average,. 932 OPS against him, 5-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: That's not good. So his specific matchup doesn't look good. However,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: Pianti has a lot of positives here, though. He's a
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: ground ball pitcher. That's good for course field. He's good
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: on the road. He might be extra pumped coming back
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: from the injured list. You know, so it's like, what
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: do we do with this game? There are some positives,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: there are some negatives there with Payante, and I think
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: the same goes for Ryan Feltner, who's pitching for Colorado here. 5.84 ERA, 1.55 whip,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: obviously bad. I mean, pretty much all of Colorado's pitchers
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: are bad. His ERA is worse at home, 6.26, but
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: he actually has a better opponent batting average at home,
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: so I don't know how we exactly figured that. Well,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: I think we do know how we figured that. Probably
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: it's just because he's allowed more home runs, although it's
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: kind of slight. He's allowed home runs both ways. He's
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: not pitching well, though. 22-16 strikeout walk ratio in August
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: with a 6-plus ERA. Way too many hits allowed. None
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: of that is good. Colorado losing most of his games.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate. He allows too many
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: home runs. He's not that fly ball heavy, but his
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: home run rate's really not very good. His walk rate's
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: not good either. His strikeout rate's not good either. Nothing
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: to really like here. 1.7 strikeout walk ratio's very bad. 6.7
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, that's not good either. The worst that
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: he's had in his career, in fact. None of this
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: is good. Feltner against St. Louis is actually good, though.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: So that's where... everything kind of starts conflicting with everything
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: else here. He's got 31 at-bats against St. Louis. They
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: have a 194 average against him, 541 OPS. So they
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: have not hit him well. Now, what do we do
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: with this game, right? Like, the situation favors Colorado here.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: The matchup numbers favor Colorado here, right? Because Payante has
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: bad numbers against Colorado. Feltner actually has good numbers against St.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: Louis here. It's just Fellner is the worst overall pitcher
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: by far. That's where I start to worry, and Payante's
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: been good on the road. I still think Colorado's probably
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: the way to play this, though. You get a rest
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: edge with Colorado. They're staying at home. St. Louis could
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: be in a letdown spot here. Situation, plus at least
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup numbers, all point towards Colorado here. So
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: that's the way I'm going to lean in this game.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: I would play Colorado in the first five. I'm not
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: going to do it, but, man, it's a... It feels real,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: real ugly, but you know me. I like those ugly plays.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I like this one enough. I mean,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: I know I don't, but 80% of tickets, 91% of
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: the cash on St. Louis. The money looks like it's
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: kind of coming in on St. Louis, although they're definitely
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: going to be a public side. I mean, you've got
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: to lay minus 130 with them. Looks like kind of
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: a cheap price, really, to pay on St. Louis, and
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: it looks too easy to play St. Louis to me.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: Money's also backing the over 11.5 in this game. I
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: kind of get it. I mean, if you're going to
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: play the over, you should do a full game because
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: just take advantage of these bullpens both being trash and St.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: Louis' having used some guys yesterday. Don't have a great
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: feel for that, but I think Colorado first five might
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: be the way to go. You'll get them as an
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: underdog because the oddsmakers are going to give Paiante the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: edge over Felton there, I'm pretty sure. So I think
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: you would get them as an underdog. Yankees at San Diego, man,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: it's taken way too long to get through all this baseball.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: San Diego's returning home from a road trip, and you
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: know I don't like that. It was a bad road trip.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: They lost five out of six games against Tampa and
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: the Reds. That's not good. San Diego is in desperation mode.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: They're battling for a wild card spot here pretty much
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: in the NL. You know they're not going to overlook
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. The problem is, you know I don't like this,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: the return home spot. It's going to be a negative spot.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: It could be a distraction. You've got to get back
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: to home life, plus traveling back west across two time
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: zones to play a late-night game. I don't like that
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: either because you have to readjust to the Pacific time zone.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: It's going to be late on your biological clock, so
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: you know I don't like that. The spot sets up
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: a lot better for the Yankees here. Yankees are already
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: in the Pacific time zone. They just won a series
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: against the Angels today. Neither team played yesterday, by the way.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: Both teams are on rest here. But the Yankees are
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: already in the Pacific time zone. Yankees are also fighting
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: for wildcard positioning, so they're not going to just not
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: show up. Yankees also have a good road record. San
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: Diego is a lot better at home, too, though. So
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: both teams have good records as far as the home
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: road splits here. Yankees do have the better starter on
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: the mound, too, so To me, I just think it's
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: probably you play the Yankees in this game or pass,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: but I know the market doesn't agree with it, or
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: at least it didn't earlier when I looked. Both bullpens
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: are good. This is a very good bullpen matchup. The
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: Yankees are number two in bullpen. They have the best
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: ERA right now. San Diego's not far behind, even though
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: they're number nine. I think they're a top five bullpen.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: Yankees are the slightly better bullpen here. Offensively, the Yankees
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: have been better. They're number 15, somewhat struggling recently. San
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: Diego's been better since the All-Star break, number 24. I
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: think it's close between the two offenses. They both struggle
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: at times. They both hit well at times. Max Freed
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: is getting the start for the Yankees, though. He is
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: the better starter here. 2.8 ERA, one whip. He's been
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: good on the road, 2.56 road ERA. Not pitching that
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: well recently. I think maybe, I don't know, it's just
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: he's trying to Recovered from injury? I don't know what's
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: going on, but he didn't pitch that deep into his
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: last couple starts. He only allowed one run in each
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: of them, though, but he got pulled pretty early in
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: his start against the Red Sox, and then the Red
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: Sox wound up losing the game because the Red Sox
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: pitching was terrible on the other side. Freed has a
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: very low hit rate on the season, though. His walk
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: rate's also low. His strikeout rate's not that high, so
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: he's not a huge strikeout guy, but he definitely does
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: not put a lot of guys on base at all.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: And the same goes for his month of August. Pretty
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: much just the same, not putting guys on base. He's
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: got a three strikeout walk ratio, which is right around
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: that threshold I look for, but not bad. 8.3 strikeout
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: per nine, not bad either. He's not an elite strikeout
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: pitcher by any means, but he is good. Freed in
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: his career against San Diego has actually not been that great.
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: In 92 at-bats, 283 average allowed. San Diego's kind of
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: known for giving Atlanta problems, and Max Freed was on
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: Atlanta for some of that. But his OPS allowed to
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: them is still not that high. It's 729, so he's
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: not horrible against San Diego. 23 to 6 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't dominate them either. They do hit him
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: for a lot of contact, just not for power. So
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe it could be a better matchup
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: for Freed, let's say, but he's definitely the better pitcher
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: over Buehler, who's pitching for the Padres here. Walker Buehler, 4.66 ERA, 1.36 whip.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: He has kind of had a better season this year
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: than his last couple seasons that were really, really injury-plagued.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: He's definitely improved a little bit, but it looks like
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: he's never going to be what he once was, or
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: he was actually a really good pitcher for the Dodgers.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: He is better at home this year, though he pitches
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: better in this pitcher-friendly park, 4.15 home ERA. He's been
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: pretty good recently. His ERA in August was 3.16 ERA.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: hasn't allowed more than 300 runs in any start going
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: all the way back into mid July, had a 20
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: to seven strikeout walk ratio in August, which not excellent,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: but it's not bad. And his team has actually won
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: seven of his last nine starts, believe it or not.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: So he's keeping his team in games at the very least.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is mediocre on the season. His walk
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: rate is kind of mediocre. His strikeout rate is not
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: really that great. Um, Yeah, I mean, I think he's
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: kind of, he's a mediocre pitcher at this point, I
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: would say, which is better than being a bad pitcher,
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: which he was the last couple of years. 2.3 strikeout
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is still not very good, though. And a 7.6
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is at least an improvement over his
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: last couple seasons. Bueller against the Yankees is actually, he's
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: not horrible, but he's not great. 111 at-bats, they don't
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: hit him for contact. So kind of the opposite of
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: what we saw with Freed, where Freed allowed a high
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: average to San Diego and a low OPS. Bueller holds
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: the Yankees to a low 234 average, but a 775
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: OPS is kind of high. So they hit him for power,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: but they don't really hit him for contact. 36 to
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: 7 strikeout walk ratio is pretty good. What do we
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: do with this? like I said, man, I would lean
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: to the Yankees here. I think the Yankees have the
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: situational edge here. The money is actually backing them now.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: It wasn't earlier. 76% of tickets, 91% of the cash
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: on them. It does look too easy to play the
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: Yankees though. I will say that at minus 120 something
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: with freed on the mound. Like usually you do have
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: to pay a price for the Yankees with freed on
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: the mound. So it almost does look too easy to
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: play the Yankees. But given that San Diego's returning home
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, having to cross time zones. The
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: Yankees are already in this time zone. It's a situational
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: edge for them, and I would trust Freed more than
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: I would trust Buehler, so that's how it is. Money
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: also is backing the over 7.5. I don't think I
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: agree with that. I think an under makes a bit
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: more sense here. 7.5, low total. It's low for a reason.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: It's a pitcher-friendly podcast. I think the pitching in this
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: game isn't that bad. The matchup with Fried is obviously
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: not bad. Buehler, I think, is a little bit better
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: this year. At least he's in decent form right now.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: The matchup numbers are not horrible for either pitcher, and
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: you do have good bullpens that are rested in this game.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: So I think the under makes more sense than the
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: over in that one. But I would lean Yankees in
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: that game. A is at Seattle. Seattle is, no, they're not, no,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: the teams played yesterday. What am I saying? So yeah,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: yesterday was the return home spot for Seattle. They lost 7-4.
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: I was correct about my lean in that game. I
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: leaned A's first five in that one, and that was correct.
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: A lot of it had to do with the situation
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: with Seattle returning home from a road trip. And, you know,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: Seattle's in that spot now where when a team loses
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: at home, especially if they kind of get embarrassed, lose
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: to a bad team, whatever, in that first game back home,
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they bounce back in the next game,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: and that is the spot Seattle's in now. Plus, they're
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: totally desperate. Seattle's massively desperate to get a win here.
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: But you're going to have to pay for it. Seattle's
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: a massive price here. And it says JT Ginn is
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: starting for the A's. He's not. Seattle would not be
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: this heavy of a favorite if it was Ginn. The
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: A's have made a pitching change here. But I just
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: think Seattle's unplayable at this price. Even though they should win,
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: it should be a bounce back spot for them. They're
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: in desperation mode trying to make the playoffs. So you
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: know that a team in desperation mode, you're going to
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: have to pay extra for it. And that's kind of
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: a problem. Seattle used four relief pitchers yesterday, but they're
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: still the better bullpen than the A's. The A's also
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: used four. A's bullpen's bad. The A's are dead last
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: in bullpen. Seattle has been struggling out of the bullpen, though.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: They're 21st, but they're still better than the A's. So
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: we'll give Seattle the bullpen edge here. A's have the
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number 10, tied with Atlanta-Miami, hitting better
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: again recently. Seattle's had issues all year with their offense.
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: They're 28th. They've been a little bit better recently, but
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: that's still not good. Now, the A's of switch pitchers,
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: like I said, they are now going with some young guy,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: and I already forget his name, Cade Morris, I think
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: is his name. Everybody's named Cade now, man. You get
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: Cade Anderson, who pitched yesterday for Seattle, Cade Cavalli with
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: a C, with Washington. Too many people named Cade, man,
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: but whatever. As far as Morris for the A's, is
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: he listed on the roster? Let me see, because I
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: know it's September call-ups. They might have brought him back
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: up or something. Let me see. Is he on here?
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: He is. So Morris is pitching. He's a young guy.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: He's only made a couple of appearances so far. It
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: didn't go well, though. 9.82 ERA, 2.11 whip. He had
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: a 20.25 road ERA so far, but it's a really
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: small sample size. Actually, he's made five starts, so more
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: than I thought, or five appearances, excuse me. The A's
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: lost all five games, and he didn't pitch particularly well, really,
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: in any of them. He was okay, I guess, last
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: time out against Baltimore, and I guess his outing against
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers actually was reasonable, but he's been pretty bad overall.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: Nothing to really love about this. He's been extremely hittable.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: 25 hits in 14 and two-thirds innings, that's bad. Six
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: walks isn't that bad. Ten strikeouts is not great, though,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: so not good strikeout-walk ratio. Way too many hits. Has
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: not faced Seattle, so he's unfamiliar to Seattle. I looked
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: at Morris' minor league numbers, and they really were not
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: very good. So do I think he's going to pitch
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: well here? No. The indicators are probably not. And Seattle's
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: got Logan Gilbert on the mound, so they do have
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: an edge in the pitching in this game. Gilbert, pretty good. 3.42 ERA, 1.04 whip.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: I know the knock on him is he's been bad
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: at home this year. 3.99 ERA, but you've got to remember,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: his home ERA was 6.00. not too long ago. He's
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: been much better recently. Most of his home starts have
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: been good recently. So he's completely fixed that. I think he's,
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: he hasn't had a bad home start for a long
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: time at this point, like going on, you have to
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: go all the way back to really, you actually have
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: to go all the way back to, to may to
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: find a bad home start out of him pretty much.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: So I think the home road splits are a little
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: bit misleading there, even though he is a little bit
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: worse at home. He's pitching well recently. He's allowed three
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in all of his recent starts,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: going all the way back into mid to early July, basically.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: Walk rate maybe a little bit concerning recently, but everything
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: else looks pretty good here. Overall, pretty low hit rate
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: on the season, low walk rate, low walk rate and
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: hit rate. Home runs have been a problem, though. 22
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: home runs a lot, and he's allowed a lot of
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: them at home, and that was why his ERA was
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: so high at home. I don't get it, because this
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: is a very pitcher-friendly park. It's one of the least
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: home run-conducive ballparks in baseball, so I don't know how
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: he's allowed that many home runs at home, but that
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: is the case. He does have a good strikeout rate, though,
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: and he doesn't put many guys on base. He's got
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: a 4.2 strikeout walk ratio, which, while it's the lowest
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: that he's had in quite a while, it's not bad.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: And 9.3 strikeout per nine, fine. So he's still a
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: fine pitcher. And his numbers against the A's are good,
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: and 70 at bat, 24-6 strikeout walk ratio, 229 average,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: 647 OPS allowed. Gilbert's not bad, man. I think Seattle
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: should win this game. They have the situational edge, in
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: my opinion, with the bounce-back spot here. They have the motivation.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: They have the better starter. They have the better bullpen.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: The only advantage the A's really have is... Really, I
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: guess the price is really big, and the A's have
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: the better hitting, but that's about it. Seattle's around minus
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: 230 here. I don't think you really lay that, man.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: If you really want to play this game, I don't know, man.
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe just money line parlay it. Now that football's starting,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: find another team, find a football team or something that's
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: in that minus 200-something range and parlay the two favorites,
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: like ones that you think have a good chance to win.
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: You can do something like that. I mean, I wouldn't
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: want to lay the minus one and a half run
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: line here with Seattle. I mean, I know it bit
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: me the other day with the Dodgers. Seattle, they're not
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: the offense that the Dodgers are. You know what I mean?
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers can put up runs. Seattle really can't to
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: that extent. Seven and a half is the total in
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: this game. It is a low total, and it seems
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: almost too low given that Morris is pitching in this game.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: Money coming in on the over in this one. You
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: could play Seattle's team total over. Maybe that's one approach
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: in this game. You'll need them to score.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know. Probably, what? You might need them
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: to score five, six runs in this game. I mean,
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: they definitely are capable of doing it with this pitching setup.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: So that's an option is to play Seattle over their
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: team total. But you're risking it because their offense has
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: kind of sucked throughout the season. And then we have
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: an even bigger favorite in the last game, Washington at L.A., L.A.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, losing to the Cardinals, or excuse me, beating
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals after losing the series to the Cardinals. L.A.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: staying at home. They seem to kind of be on
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: cruise control right now, even though they still are kind
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: of fighting for the number one spot with the Brewers
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: in the NL here. Washington does have to travel cross-country.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: They just lost 9-0 to the Braves two days ago,
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: I believe. So both teams, I believe, are rested here. But,
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: or no, excuse me, Washington has a rest edge, excuse me. Yeah,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: Washington has a rest advantage here. Dodgers played yesterday, but
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are staying at home. Whereas Washington has to
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: adjust to the Pacific time zone coming from the east.
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: And you know I don't like that. They have to
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: readjust their bio clocks. I think that's a bad thing.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: So that's a negative. It's a negative for both teams
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: kind of here in this one. Or Washington has, I guess,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: a positive in the rest edge that gets canceled out
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: by having to travel cross-country. And it all gets canceled
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: out by the fact that this is a huge pitching
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: mismatch in favor. I almost always say pissing mismatch, like
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: pissing contest. But the Dodgers definitely have a huge edge
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: here in the pitching. I know they used a bunch
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: of relief pitchers yesterday. They used four, but they're still
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. Dodgers are number 10 in bullpen. They're
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: all right. Washington's bullpen's not good, 26th. They're one of
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: the handful of bullpens with an above-five ERA. That's bad.
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: Both offenses are good. Dodgers number two, Washington number three.
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: So this could be a series where we get some overs.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: Jackson Kent looks like he is getting the start for Washington.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: They pushed his start back. He's a young guy, but
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: he has been unimpressive so far. 5.59 ERA, 1.71 whip.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: I don't believe his minor league numbers look that good.
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: He's been atrocious on the road, 8.64 road ERA. He's
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: only made four starts so far. His last start was
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: somewhat okay against Miami, but he walked too many guys
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: in that one still. He hasn't been good, man, overall.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: 17 to 15 strikeout walk ratio, that's just a killer. Like,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: you cannot walk that many people. The rest of his
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: numbers are okay. Strikeout rate is okay. The hit rate
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: is okay. But 1.1 strikeout walk ratio is abysmal. You
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: cannot walk that many guys. Strikeout per nine, 7.9. It's
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: not totally impressive either. Kent does not face the Dodgers yet,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: I don't believe. So he is unfamiliar to them, but
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to do him that much good.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to do that well here.
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 2: Blake Snell on the other side, I mean, he's borderline
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: elite still, even though he's had a bunch of injuries recently.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: But the Dodgers, I think they're kind of... They're saying
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: these guys are injured when they're not really that injured.
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: You know what the Dodgers are doing because they have
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: so many guys on their team. They're keeping their best
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: pitchers rested. This is what they did last year. Glasnow
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: and Snell were hurt for almost the entire season. Then
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: they come back and they're in the playoff rotation. That's
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: what's happening again. And they're both really good. Snell has
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: a 2.42 ERA. 1.08 whip this year. Three ERA at home,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: but whatever. I mean, he's a little bit worse at home,
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: but who cares? Since he's come back from injury, he
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: had one kind of bad start really early in the season,
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: in May, actually. but since he's come back month of
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: August he was really good 1.17 ERA allowed very few
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: hits high strikeout rate and his only problem is he
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: walks too many guys that's just that's Snell being Snell
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: man what can I say he's basically completely unhittable strikes
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: out a ton of guys and he walks too many
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: guys he's kind of like Dylan Cease That's what he does, man.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: He was on San Diego for a while, too. Snell
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: has a three strikeout walk ratio right now, again, because
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: he walks a ton of guys, but whatever. His strikeout
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: per nine is 12.5, which is very high. Snell against
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: Washington in his career, they don't have many guys who
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: have faced him. They have four guys who have faced him.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: 14 at-bats, no extra base hits, 214 average, 567 OPS,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: 4-3 strikeout walk ratio, so Kind of typical Snell stuff there.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: He's going to be unfamiliar with Washington. The money is
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: coming in on Washington, but I think it's all because
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: of the price. You cannot lay minus 300 with the Dodgers. However,
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: if you want a money line parlay, the Dodgers with
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: Seattle here, I guess you could do that. I don't
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: really think that either of them are going to lose,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: but You never know, man. It's probably going to be
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: a popular baseball parlay, though. So the oddsmakers really want
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: one of those teams to lose to crack those parlays.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: Now that football is back, guys are going to be
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: putting football in their parlays. 94% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Dodgers. So the money is fading
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers here. Money seems to kind of be fading
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: a very public over in this game, too. Total at 8, 8.5.
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good feel for the total. I
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: still think the Dodgers are... Probably the way to look
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: in this game somehow, though. I mean, it seems like
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: a total mismatch. I would not want to lay like two,
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: two and a half runs here, though, which is probably
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: what you need to do if you play the run line.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: There's just no way. The price makes this game unplayable.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: But like I said, if you want to put them
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: in a money line parlay with some other favorite, the
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: Dodgers should win this game. Of course, it's not guaranteed,
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: but they should have the edge pretty much everywhere, except
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: they don't have the rest edge here. But I think
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: that gets a little bit canceled by Washington having to
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: travel time zones. So that's what I got in that one.
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: Let's do college football. Unless, should I take another quick
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: break and then do college football? And I have to
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: come back and do a huge college football show tonight.
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: And let's, what do we have, five games here? All right,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 2: I'll take a break. I'll be right back. Yep, inside.
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: 1-5.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season, man. What can this
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: slump do? Then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going on
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins.
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: March 8th?
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man?
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: Back with you after... The worst day that I could
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: possibly have back with you, as I always am. Until
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: go well for me.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 3: 0-5.
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right. College football.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: Let's go, man. I got one play here. You know
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: what it is already if you've been following me. And
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: I like it. And the number is pretty much still there.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about the FBS games here. No.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: one thing that I'm focusing on is did these teams
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: play in week zero? Because I think teams that play
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: it already actually have an advantage because they get the game,
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 2: they get a game under their belt and the other
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: teams having to come in cold and actually like adapt
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: to playing in an actual game. Now this first game,
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: San Jose state at Eastern Michigan, which is at six 30.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: So it's kind of an early game for San Jose state.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 2: I think that type of thing gets overrated a little
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: bit like these West coast teams going East. Um, It's
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: worse when it's, like, an 11 a.m. game or something
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: like that because then they're having to play at, like,
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 2: 8 a.m. But, you know, athletes, like, they're going to
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: be at, you know, they're going to be energetic still, like,
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: pretty early in the morning. You know what I mean? Like,
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 2: that's typically when you work out and stuff like that.
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 2: So I don't think that's that bad. I think the
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 2: late-night situation with East Coast teams going west is a
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: lot worse. But this shouldn't be a problem. I mean,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: this would be, like, an afternoon game their time. Still
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: kind of a weird travel spot, though. for San Jose
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 2: State having to go to Eastern Michigan here while Eastern
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: Michigan's staying at home. Both teams played yesterday, played last week.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: Both teams played in week zero. Now, San Jose State,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: they lost to USC, which of course was expected, but
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: they actually got obliterated by USC. I know San Jose
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: State covered 42-26 is definitely not an embarrassing score to
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: lose by to USC, but the thing about that is,
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: USC was just wrecking them. USC was housing them. I
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: think it was like 38 to 30, it must've been
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: 35 to three, like in the third or fourth quarter.
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: You know what happened in that game. USC brought in
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: all their backups and then San Jose State scored against
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: their backups to make it cosmetic. And that's what happens
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 2: in these early games that are complete mismatches, man. That's
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: why laying these huge favorites. I know sometimes some of
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: these huge favorites, like I know there's like a decent
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: percentage of them that cover, but I always worry about
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: them resting guys, you know what I mean? Because the
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 2: back door is always open for these big underdogs to
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 2: just make a cosmetic comeback and get back within that spread.
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: That's exactly what San Jose State did. However, for this
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 2: game's purposes, San Jose State was not good in that game.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: The final score made it look a lot better than
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: it was. They got wrecked by USC, although Eastern Michigan is,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 2: of course, not USC. But still, San Jose State, a
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 2: road game, a big in-state run, Little brother, big brother situation.
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 2: Now they've got to go to Michigan to play Eastern Michigan.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I love it, man. I kind
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: of like Eastern Michigan here. In Eastern Michigan, we won
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: with them. That was my only play that I gave
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: out so far. They covered against Sacramento State. They should
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: have won more easily, dude. If you saw what happened,
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: one of Sacramento State's touchdowns, in fact, their only touchdown
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: until late in the fourth quarter, the only touchdown Sacramento
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: State had in that game was on a sack fumble six.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: which was pissing me off. Eastern Michigan was totally dominating them.
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: Sacramento State had negative rushing yards in the first half.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 2: Even though Eastern Michigan is known for not having a
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 2: good rushing defense, Sacramento State couldn't do anything against them
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: running the football, or in the first half at least.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: And good news for Eastern Michigan is San Jose State
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: is not a rushing team. They're mostly a passing offense.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 2: So Eastern Michigan might be able to hold up. I
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 2: think basically what you're looking at is Eastern Michigan was
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: better than they looked on the scoreboard. They actually dominated
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: Sacramento State. San Jose State was worse than they looked
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: on the scoreboard because it was just that cosmetic scoring
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 2: at the end against USC's backups. So I like Eastern
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: Michigan in this one. It's not a play for me.
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 2: And when I looked earlier, the money was actually disagreeing
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 2: with that. No, now it's agreeing with it again. But yeah,
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: I would lay the points with Eastern Michigan if I
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 2: was going to play it. You're getting on that key
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 2: number of three now. So I think what happened was
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: some money came in on San Jose State to try
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 2: to drive the line down below that three and a
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 2: half key number to get a three out there so
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: that the actual professionals... because they know they could drive
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 2: the lines. I think they did that to influence the line,
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: and now they're actually going to come back on Eastern Michigan.
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 2: That would be my read on what's going on here,
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 2: combined with the fact that I think the situation favors
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan. I would lay the three, or I guess,
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 2: you know, if you really wanted to, like, you could
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: money line it, I guess, if you wanted to. You
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: might find a two and a half, but it looks
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 2: like it's mostly three out there. Two and a half
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: with juice at some spots. 55% of tickets on San
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: Jose state. I guess the public kind of likes what
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 2: they saw out of San Jose state against USC. But again,
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: what you saw was not real. That motherfucker is not real. Uh,
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 2: really for either of these teams. Again, the, the scoreboard
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: was just misleading for both teams. 54% of the cash
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: on San Jose state. But yeah, I like Eastern Michigan here. Um,
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 2: next game, uh, UTEP and Oklahoma, I guess is the
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 2: next game. Number 10 ranked Oklahoma. Um, As we had
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: two ranked teams play yesterday, but they both played... They
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: both won easily, although Missouri didn't cover. I think Utah
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: definitely covered against Idaho. But those teams, yeah, they were
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 2: playing FCS teams yesterday, so I didn't cover them. Number 10,
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma will be the first ranked team to play an
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 2: FBS game here against UTEP. This should be a complete mismatch.
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, UTEP is ass. Like, I don't even know...
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 2: They're only bringing back four starters, none on their offense.
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 2: They might have a new coach. I actually forget. Maybe
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: I should bring back up the coaching thing here. Let
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 2: me see. No, I didn't want Michael Kors' coach bag here.
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 2: I don't think you... UTEP is listed on here, so
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 2: I don't think they do have a new coach, but oh, God.
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 2: But they're bringing back almost nobody, which maybe that's not
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 2: a bad thing because their team sucked, but I showed
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: you Oklahoma's bringing back a bunch of guys. They're bringing
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 2: back most of their offense and more than half of
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: their defense. So Oklahoma... If you saw my preview, I
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 2: thought Oklahoma would actually be... I think they're going to
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 2: be good this year because they're bringing back basically everybody,
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: including their starting quarterback, John Mateer, who I guess worked
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 2: out a lot over the offseason and looks really muscular now, whatever.
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 2: So you get a jacked John Mateer. I mean, we
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 2: know this is a mismatch, though. If you want Oklahoma,
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 2: you've got to lay a massive price for it. You've
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 2: got to lay minus 40.5. If you're going to actually
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: lay the points with Oklahoma in the full game, you've
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 2: got to do not lay 41.5. You know what I mean?
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: There's a 41 out there. There's a 40.5 out there.
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: Get below that key number of 41 at least. But
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: I think if you want to play this game, I
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 2: think the better way to play this is to just
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 2: play Oklahoma in the first half. I'm not really a
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 2: first-half guy, but I don't know what the spread's going
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 2: to be in the first half. It's probably going to
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 2: be higher than half of the spread here for the
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 2: full game. That's unfortunate. It's not going to be 20-and-a-half.
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: They're not going to give you below the three touchdowns.
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: You're probably going to have to lay like 22 touchdowns.
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 2: maybe even 23, because the oddsmakers know the reason for
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: that is that Oklahoma might do what I said USC did.
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 2: If Oklahoma has a big lead here, they're just going
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 2: to rest guys at the end of the game, most likely.
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: So UTEP might have some backdoor cover potential here. 81%
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 93% of the cash on Oklahoma, though. So
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on Oklahoma. I mean, they're
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: the way better team. It's a complete mismatch. Do what
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: you want with that info. I still think maybe Oklahoma
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: first half is the better way to play it, although
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 2: one other thing you could do is play Oklahoma's team
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: total over, because it's a fairly high total in the game, 51.5.
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not exactly a low total, at least.
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 2: It's not high either, but Oklahoma is supposed to do
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: almost all the scoring in this game. You know what
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 2: I mean? The projected 40.5 is the spread, and 51.5
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: is the total, so Oklahoma's supposed to win this game what,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 2: like 45 to 6? Is that what they're saying? Basically
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: something like that? Whatever, man. Or I guess by a
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: little bit more. 46 to 5, actually, I guess is
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: what it would be. Something like that. Whatever. But this
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 2: is a game where the total and the favorite are
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: definitely correlated. So the oddsmakers are not going to let
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 2: you play that parlay. You know what I mean? I
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 2: would be shocked if any oddsmaker let you do that.
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 2: Like Oklahoma and the over are going to be correlated here.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: UTEP and the under are going to be correlated in
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 2: that one, but I would lean Oklahoma in some capacity.
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe you go over their team total in the full game.
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 2: You could go over their team total in the first
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: half because then they might bring backups in after that. Yeah,
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 2: some form of that. I think Oklahoma probably kind of
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 2: runs away with this, but 40 and a half still
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 2: is like a huge, huge spread, so whatever. Toledo and
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 2: Michigan State on Fox Sports 1. interesting. Both of these
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 2: teams have new coaches, both teams. Well, Michigan state's trying
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 2: to revive the program. Like Michigan state has completely fallen
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: off over the recent years. And they used to be
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 2: a pretty competitive team. They brought in Pat Fitzgerald now.
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 2: So Michigan state has a new coach who does have
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 2: a good track record in the big 10. I think
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 2: the only reason Pat Fitzgerald left Northwestern is I think
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: he got pushed out for some, I don't know, like
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: I forget what it was like he violated some rule
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 2: or something. I don't know what it was. Um, And
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been back for a while, but I kind
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 2: of like this move from Michigan State, really. And then
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 2: for Toledo, they brought in a new coach, Mike Jacobs,
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: who's coming up from FCS, or he was at Mercer,
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: which I guess he was doing well there. And Toledo,
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: they're supposed to be a competitive team again in the
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 2: MAAC this year. They're always competitive in the MAAC, so
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 2: we'll see what they can do. But Toledo's definitely rebuilding.
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 2: They only have one returning starter. So this is a
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 2: total rebuild, even though I assume Jacobs is bringing some
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 2: of his Mercer stuff. players with him here. So there
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 2: will be some continuity there, but even still, I mean,
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: it's going to be like a lot of stuff is
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 2: going to be new, I think. And then Michigan state's
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 2: just completely overhauling. Uh, so this could be maybe a
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: lower scoring game. Michigan state's only bringing back five starters.
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: So they're completely overhauling as well. So when you see
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 2: a game like this, neither team has played yet. And, uh,
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 2: It looks like the offenses are going to be slow
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 2: to start. You get what I mean? So the under
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 2: makes sense in this game. And in fact, you're getting
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 2: a decent number on this. Again, it opened 49 and
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 2: a half and went all the way down to like
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: 46 and a half. So it crossed through that key
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 2: number of 47, but now it's back up to like
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: 47 and a half, 48 and a half. I don't
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: know what's going on. It looks like the money is
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on the under. 67% of tickets on
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: the over, 90% of the cash on the under. I
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: would take it with a little bit of a grain
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 2: of salt because I don't know totals. I don't do
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: totals really in anything besides baseball, but it's a low
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: total anyway in this game. The odds makers are telling
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: you they think it's going to be a low scoring game.
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 2: I think the under does make sense here because both offenses,
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 2: neither team has played yet, so that means both offenses
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 2: might start slow for that reason, but also they're New offense,
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 2: though maybe Toledo's won't be totally new because I'm assuming
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 2: some of their players played under Jacobs in Mercer, so
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 2: there'll be more continuity there. Still, I think both offenses
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 2: might be pretty slow in this game, so the under
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 2: makes sense, or a first half under, while the offenses
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 2: are still trying to figure shit out. That might make sense.
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 2: I think I'd probably only take the points with Toledo
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 2: here too. Even though I like the coaching move from
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: Michigan State, you have to lay 10.5 or 10 with
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 2: them in a low total game. You know what I
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 2: always say, the underdog is worth more in a game
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: with a low total. Each point is worth more because
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 2: the points are going to be harder to come by,
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 2: so it's going to be easier for the underdog to cover.
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 2: I'd leave Toledo plus the points on the spread here.
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 2: 68% of tickets, 62% of the cash on Michigan State,
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: so the money seems to agree with that as well.
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 2: And I think it's just more that Toledo might just
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 2: have more continuity if they have players that have already
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: played under this coach. So that's kind of, that's like
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 2: the reasoning for it. And not a crazy travel spot
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 2: for Toledo. They're just staying in Mac territory there. All right.
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 2: My actual play is the ESPN game. So you get
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 2: to watch this game. I like this play. And also
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 2: if it's, if it's the TV game, you know what
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 2: means that it's going to be the game that gets
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 2: some of the highest betting handle on it. So it's
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 2: a better game to fade the public. You know, I like,
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: I think fading the public is a good idea in
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: a game that has a huge bet amount on it.
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 2: You get what I mean? Like a huge handle when
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 2: a ton of people are betting this one game and
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 2: there's more public money in the universe there, like on
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: that game. Basically, the oddsmakers kind of need the public
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 2: to lose that game. And they have to skew the
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 2: number more towards that team they know is going to
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 2: be public. So I think it's a good move to
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 2: fade teams like that, and that's what we're doing here.
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: But there are a bunch of other reasons for this, too.
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 2: We're taking Stanford plus 24 and a half against number
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 2: seven Miami. The public's going to be all over Miami, man,
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 2: because of what they saw last year. Miami made the
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 2: championship game. They almost won the championship game last year.
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 2: Multiple things had to go right for that to happen
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: for Miami. I'm not saying Miami's a bad team. They're not.
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: Mario Cristobal... I've made fun of him a lot in
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 2: the past for his coaching, but he did well last year.
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 2: He coached them well in the playoffs, so give him
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 2: credit for that. But Miami did have to pull off
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 2: multiple upsets in the playoffs to get to where they were.
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 2: So I think they overperformed in the playoffs last year.
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 2: But the other thing about Miami is they were excellent
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 2: in the trenches last year. They had an amazing offensive
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 2: line and defensive line. But I believe, let me see
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 2: if I'm right about this, I believe Miami's offensive line
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 2: was A lot of it is gone this year. Yeah,
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: so Miami's only bringing back one offensive lineman. They are
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 2: bringing back most of their secondary, but this is still
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 2: a problem. They're losing half of their defensive line and
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 2: four out of five of their offensive linemen. And Miami's
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 2: strength last year was... the lines like they were really
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 2: really good on the lines and they lost most of
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 2: those players so I think that's not good for Miami
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 2: to start out this game plus as we know they
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 2: lost a lot more of their offense than that they're
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: bringing back most of their defense which was good give
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 2: them credit for that but it's mostly their secondary coming
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 2: back on the offense we know the big hit they're
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 2: taking here they're losing Carson Beck Carson Beck did really
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 2: well in the playoffs man he looked good uh, looked
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: good in the championship game. He's looked pretty good in
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 2: the preseason. He's on Arizona now, Arizona Cardinals. He's in
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 2: the NFL, uh, not the Stanford Cardinal. Um, now Miami
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: is going to be going with Darian Mensah, who does
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 2: have experience. He played at Tulane and then he played
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 2: at Duke last year. Duke did win the ACC. I'm
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 2: pretty sure last year somehow. Um, Miami, yeah. Remember, Miami
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: didn't win the ACC last year. I don't know. People
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 2: kind of forget about that. But yes, Miami's good, but
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 2: there's going to be some growing pains here, man, and
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure Mensah is that good. He's not as
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 2: good as Carson Beck. The offensive line that was so
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 2: good for Miami last year is basically all gone, so
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 2: this new offensive line is going to have to get
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: up to speed here. The defensive line that was awesome
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 2: last year only has half of those guys coming back,
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: although they should be better off right away than the
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 2: offense will, but You need offense from Miami if they're
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 2: going to cover a 24.5 point spread, and I don't
• 2:07:50
  Speaker 2: know if they're going to be able to do it
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 2: with Mensah plus with the Mensah. that doesn't mean that
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 2: he's does that mean he's really smart I don't know
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 2: with the switch to Mensah plus the offensive line and
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 2: these guys have to learn the new system whatever It's
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 2: going to be some growing pains for Miami, and that's
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 2: another reason why I like Stanford here, because guess what?
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 2: Stanford played last week, and they're staying at home, so
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 2: you know that that's an advantage for Stanford. They won
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 2: the game last week, and everybody's going to say, well,
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 2: Stanford got lucky, because if you remember, that was a
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 2: back-and-forth game at the end. Stanford only won by 10
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: and only covered at the end because of that ridiculous
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 2: fumble six at the end. Stanford was losing in the
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 2: final minutes of that game, but... It's misleading. So I
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: think people are going to say, well, Stanford was lucky
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 2: to win that game against a bad Hawaii team. I
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 2: don't think so. Stanford dominated most of that game. They
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 2: were winning 23-7 in the third quarter of that game,
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 2: and then Hawaii capitalized on a couple of Stanford mistakes
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 2: and wound up scoring two touchdowns in a row and
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: really made the game way closer. If you look at
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 2: the stat sheet in that game, Stanford won the game.
• 2:08:56
  Speaker 2: They won the yardage battle by, I think, at least
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 2: 60 yards. They won the game. They were the better
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 2: team in the game. So here I think we have
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 2: a Stanford team that they're going to be off and
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 2: running because they already have a game under their belt.
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 2: They're getting a ton of points. They're staying at home.
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 2: They're facing a Miami team that hasn't played yet and
• 2:09:12
  Speaker 2: has to get their offense ready again. Stanford did not
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 2: look impressive last week against Hawaii, and I think they
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: were better in that game than it looked on the scoreboard.
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 2: And Miami has to fly all the way to the
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 2: West Coast for this, man, for a 9 p.m. game.
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 2: Now Miami might already be out there because it's the
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 2: first game of the season, but that's still– A team
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 2: from the East Coast still has to adjust their biological
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 2: clocks now to play a West Coast game late at night.
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 2: It's still a pretty weird spot for Miami to have
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 2: to open the season in, man. So I think that's
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: a negative, too. And then we look at the total
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: in this game. It's similar to what I was talking
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 2: about with that Oklahoma game, I think. Miami is a 24.5
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: point favorite. I think you'll at least be able to
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 2: get 24 on this, by the way. It looks like
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 2: it's 23.5s out there in a lot of places. I
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 2: would just wait because 24 is a key number, and
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: I really thought you'd be able to get the 24, 24.5.
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 2: I would at least take 24 on this, but I
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 2: think you should be able to get it. If you
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 2: don't see it now, just wait because... 23.5, 23, that's
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 2: not a difference between those two numbers. You want to
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 2: get the 24, 24.5, so if you don't see it
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: right now, just wait, because the public is going to
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 2: come in on Miami, so the line might come back up,
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? But I did see a 24.5
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: out there this morning, and I think they're still around.
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 2: Some of them might have been juiced at like minus 115,
• 2:10:28
  Speaker 2: but I would be fine with doing that too. Paying
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 2: up to minus 115 to get the hook on that
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 2: key number, I think is also a fine way to
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 2: play this. But Look at the total in this game, man.
• 2:10:38
  Speaker 2: This is where I was going with this. The money
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 2: is kind of indicating on the under, and it's already
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: fallen to 47.5, right on that key number of 47 now.
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 2: You know what I always say, the underdog is worth
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: way more when you have a low total like this,
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 2: and we're getting, the spread is more than half of
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 2: the total in this game. It's ridiculous, dude. This total,
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 2: it's lower than the UTEP Oklahoma one. This is more
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 2: in line with what I said yesterday, I think it
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 2: was the Akron game yesterday, and Akron did cover, although
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 2: Wake Forest put up way more offense than I thought
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 2: they would. Yeah, so basically this number is essentially saying
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 2: that Miami is supposed to win this game what? Can
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 2: I do this math right? What, like 36-12 or so?
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 2: Is that right? Basically something like that? I don't know
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 2: about that, man. Um, but you know, just generally when
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 2: you see a huge spread like this and a low
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 2: total like this, there's value in the underdog there. Like
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 2: every point is going to be worth more. It's supposed
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 2: to be a lower scoring game. Let's grab it, man.
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 2: Let's grab Stanford. The public is on Miami here. 72%
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 2: of tickets, only 65% of the cash on them. So
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 2: the market read is saying to do this. We got
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 2: all the advantages I already talked about with playing Stanford here. Uh,
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 2: so it's a situational setup that favors Stanford as well.
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 2: I like it. Um, Let's do it. Yeah, Stanford plus
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 2: the points, man. People are not going to like it.
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 2: This is the way I do things, man. You got
• 2:12:06
  Speaker 2: to do it. You got to play on teams. You
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 2: got to go against the public. You got to make very,
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 2: very unconventional plays. You got to go against the grain.
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 2: You got to make, what's the word I'm looking for here?
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 2: You got to be contrarian. All right, and then the
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 2: last game, the other late game is Fresno at number
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 2: 14 USC on Fox. USC already played a game, so
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 2: they do already have a game under their belt, and USC,
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 2: you know, they were better than they looked. Like I said,
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 2: USC just pulled their starters at the end of that game,
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 2: and San Jose State made it cosmetic at the end,
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 2: so USC was actually better in that game than it looked.
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 2: So maybe that would have me leaning towards USC a
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 2: little bit here because they have a game under their
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 2: belt and they were better than they actually looked in
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 2: the game. However, Fresno is an in-state little brother. So
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 2: Fresno is not going to overlook this game. They're going
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 2: to want to get this game or at least play
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 2: competitively here against their in-state bigger brother here. So it'll
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 2: be a big game for them. The other thing is
• 2:13:03
  Speaker 2: Fresno's coach, Used to be a coach under Lincoln Riley
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 2: at USC, I think. So Lincoln Riley might not want
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 2: to run up the score against him. And Fresno's coach
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 2: knows Lincoln Riley's tendencies. You know what I mean? So
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 2: being a coach with Lincoln Riley, Fresno's coach is going
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 2: to kind of know what they do. So that might
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 2: give him a little bit of inside knowledge. That worries
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 2: me a little bit about wanting to lay this many
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 2: points with USC here. It's also not a ridiculously high
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 2: total either, and it is a huge line in this
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 2: game on USC here. So those would be my concerns
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: with the USC side in this one, that Fresno's coach
• 2:13:36
  Speaker 2: knows them, and USC, Lincoln Riley just doesn't have any
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 2: incentive to really run up the score against a guy
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 2: who's his friend, you know what I mean? He's probably
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 2: not going to be very incentivized to embarrass him. He
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 2: wants to win the game, and probably win it by...
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: a decent margin. USC can certainly do that, but he's
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 2: not going to just go name the score. He'll pull
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 2: his starters probably if they're ahead. You know what I mean?
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 2: Call off the dogs, that type of thing. A gentlemanly
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 2: move here. Still looking at Stanford there. As far as
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 2: the returning starters, USC has a lot of returning starters too,
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 2: but they did already also play a game. They're returning
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 2: most of their team from last year. So USC, they're
• 2:14:16
  Speaker 2: definitely going to be a competitive team this year. There's
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 2: no doubt about that. It's just they have to do
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 2: these weird travel you know because they're in the Big
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 2: Ten so once conference play starts they might start losing
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 2: some games but they're gonna be good and they are
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 2: good right now and they do already have that game
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 2: under the belt but Fresno is bringing back 13 guys
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 2: 13 starters so Fresno has a lot of continuity as
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 2: well they're not bringing back their quarterback but they're bringing
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 2: back like a lot of other guys here man so
• 2:14:42
  Speaker 2: that's not a bad thing for Fresno there's gonna be
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of continuity there as well so this is
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 2: a tough game There are some indicators both ways here.
• 2:14:49
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on Fresno, though. You're getting
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 2: more than three touchdowns on this. You're getting 22.5, basically,
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 2: on this. So, yeah, you're on the right side of
• 2:15:00
  Speaker 2: that key number of 21 if you do want to
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 2: play Fresno here. 70% of tickets on USC, 59% of
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 2: the cash on Fresno. I don't disagree with it, really.
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I'd slightly lean that way. I
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 2: have conflicting thoughts about this, but the money is definitely
• 2:15:15
  Speaker 2: coming in on Fresno. It looks like a very public
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 2: over at 51.5. It's right on that key number of 51.5.
• 2:15:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd really want to play an under here, though.
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, USC, their offense is pretty prolific. I know
• 2:15:27
  Speaker 2: Fresno has to work in a new quarterback here, but
• 2:15:30
  Speaker 2: their offense might be able to get something done in
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 2: this game as well. I don't know. But overall, it
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 2: is still not really that high of a total, I guess.
• 2:15:37
  Speaker 2: And Given what the spread is, it does kind of
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 2: make sense to play the underdog with a total like that.
• 2:15:44
  Speaker 2: That's what I got, man. Yeah, I'm going to come
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 2: back tonight for the full college football slate for week one.
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have to identify some spots that I
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 2: actually want to play. Haven't really found much yet, but
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 2: I got to figure something out here, man, especially because
• 2:15:59
  Speaker 2: I'm in a pick seven contest where you have to
• 2:16:01
  Speaker 2: pick seven college football games a week. I didn't use
• 2:16:04
  Speaker 2: any of the games. I should have used Colorado. I'm pissed.
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 2: I didn't love it that much. But I am going
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 2: to use Stanford in that contest tonight, but I have
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 2: to figure out what else I want to use. We
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 2: couldn't use the week zero game, so Eastern Michigan was
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 2: not part of that contest, that win that I had
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 2: in the first one. But I have to find six
• 2:16:21
  Speaker 2: more games that I actually want to put in my contest,
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 2: and you know I'm not going to have six plays tomorrow.
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 2: At most, I'm probably going to have three, probably fewer
• 2:16:29
  Speaker 2: than that. Week one, I tread very lightly, man, so
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 2: we'll see. That's going to do it. My plays today,
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 2: game one coming up somewhat shortly. Detroit Tigers in game
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 2: one on the money line in baseball run. Atlanta Braves
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 2: on the money line, and then we'll have the night
• 2:16:44
  Speaker 2: game after those two games are basically, well, yeah, we
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 2: have an afternoon game. All these games are isolated. Afternoon game,
• 2:16:51
  Speaker 2: early evening game, and then late evening game or night game.
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 2: Stanford plus the points is my other play. Get at
• 2:16:56
  Speaker 2: least 24 on this, man. Like, 24 is the key number,
• 2:17:00
  Speaker 2: at least be on the 24, but 24 and a half,
• 2:17:03
  Speaker 2: obviously better. And I would pay the minus 115 to
• 2:17:06
  Speaker 2: get it up there. If that's one of the options
• 2:17:08
  Speaker 2: that you have, that's going to do it. Learn to
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 2: Tone on Twitter, Learn to Tone on Instagram, like subscribe
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 2: to this channel here. Covered in Uke is my Uke
• 2:17:16
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. You can check that out, patreon.com slash
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 2: learn to tone. If you want to support me that way.
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 2: This show is also on audio, this show, Toadstool Sports.
• 2:17:26
  Speaker 2: It's doing decent on audio. Well, it's doing better at least.
• 2:17:29
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't say decent, but the numbers are going up
• 2:17:31
  Speaker 2: slowly on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. What else did I have
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 2: to promote here? I forget. Loser cast every Tuesday night
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 2: in the New York Giants G-Spot podcast. We'll see what
• 2:17:45
  Speaker 2: happens with it, man. NFL starts next week. And if
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 2: you subscribe here, be on the lookout because there's should
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 2: be a little bit more NFL preview content coming out.
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 2: I got to talk to Clint, figure out when we
• 2:17:55
  Speaker 2: want to do an episode of Bald, and we'll do that.
• 2:17:57
  Speaker 2: And that's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Peace.
• 2:18:04
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 4: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 4: hold on.
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 1: Not tonight. Not now.
• 2:18:30
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 2:18:34
  Speaker 5: Let me pull you out. That bad luck bites hard,
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 5: but it don't.
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 1: Get the crown.
• 2:18:47
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 2:18:49
  Speaker 5: Hold on, stay with me now Hold on, hold on
• 2:19:00
  Speaker 5: You're still here now guitar solo