Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / What's next in U.S-Iran war slain supreme leader Khamenei to be buried

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What's next in U.S-Iran war slain supreme leader Khamenei to be buried · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: With more on the escalation of fighting between the US
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  Speaker 1: and Iran. CBS News national security analyst Aaron maclain joins us.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: He's also the host of the School of War podcast. Aaron,
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  Speaker 1: good morning, So we've got more strikes, President Trump saying
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  Speaker 1: the MoU is over. I'm wondering, from your perspective, if
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  Speaker 1: this kind of exposes how flawed this agreement was with
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  Speaker 1: Iran from the start.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, good morning, earl. Yeah, the flaws were pretty evident
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  Speaker 2: right from the outset, and one of the most glaring
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  Speaker 2: was that the agreement was premised on this notion that
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  Speaker 2: we agreed the United States in Iran agreed about what
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  Speaker 2: opening the Strait of Hormuves meant. But if you read
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  Speaker 2: the text carefully and you listened to both sides talk
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  Speaker 2: about it, it was very clear from the start that
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  Speaker 2: they did not. For the United States, opening the straight
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  Speaker 2: meant you open the strait, ships can go through. But
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  Speaker 2: from Iran's perspective, it meant they controlled the strait, and
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  Speaker 2: the IRGC, the Iranian military body that's been operating in
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  Speaker 2: the Straight true to character, interpreted that as meaning if
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  Speaker 2: ships don't comply with our instructions, we get to shoot
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  Speaker 2: at them, and that's exactly what's led to where we are.
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  Speaker 1: So do you think we are now back at the
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  Speaker 1: same levels of engagement that we saw pre MoU from
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  Speaker 1: March and April.
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  Speaker 2: Right, So, now here's the question. Is this going to
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  Speaker 2: be an escalation back to those really intense early days
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  Speaker 2: or are we in some kind of new normal where
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  Speaker 2: there are going to be intermittent rounds of mid grade violence,
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  Speaker 2: diplomatic initiatives that start and perhaps stop. And unfortunately, this
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  Speaker 2: kind of confusing situation that we're in just persists. It's
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  Speaker 2: too soon to say. I'm looking at the nature of
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  Speaker 2: the target struck last night. There was some level of
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  Speaker 2: escalation on the American side. We did hit a couple
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  Speaker 2: of infrastructure targets, these railroad targets, which was interesting to me.
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  Speaker 2: The scope of our strikes did expand out from the
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  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz area. We saw a pretty intense Iranian response.
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  Speaker 2: So the possibility of real escalation, of course exists. I'm
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  Speaker 2: not sure the appetite exists on both sides for that,
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  Speaker 2: and it's possible that what we see right now is
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  Speaker 2: what we need to get used to.
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  Speaker 1: But Auron viewers who've listened to President Trump say that
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  Speaker 1: the war has been one that Iran's military has been obliterated.
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  Speaker 1: Would be confused as to how they're still able to
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  Speaker 1: target I guess US bases in the region housed by
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  Speaker 1: US allies. So what does this show about Iran's fighting capabilities?
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  Speaker 2: Well, they were never reduced to zero, and then there's
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  Speaker 2: been several months since April during the ceasefire period and
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  Speaker 2: then the MoU period short lived that it was where
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  Speaker 2: they've had time to reconstitute their forces. Something else the
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  Speaker 2: President said just in the last twenty four hours is
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  Speaker 2: whatever happens next, it's going to be quick. I think
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  Speaker 2: that's the one thing that's least likely to be true.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's very unlikely that this is going to
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  Speaker 2: be quickly resolved.
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  Speaker 1: All right. Aran McLain joining us with his analysis, Aaron,
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  Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. Iran will bury its slain Supreme
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  Speaker 1: leader Ali Komanee today after a week of mass funeral processions.
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  Speaker 1: Thousands of mourners attended ceremonies in Iraq's holy cities. You
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  Speaker 1: can see him massive crowds lifting coffins through the streets
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  Speaker 1: yesterday before it was transported to or back to Iran.
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  Speaker 1: CBS News Middle East contributor Courtney Keeley is hire with
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  Speaker 1: us now in studio to give us some analysis on
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  Speaker 1: what this soul means. Court Niquod Morning, How significant is
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  Speaker 1: that footage that we saw huge crowds not in Iran
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  Speaker 1: where you might expect, but also in Iraq.
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  Speaker 3: Right, the holy city of Karbola is where Hussein died.
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  Speaker 3: He's the central martyr of the tenets of this interpretation
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  Speaker 3: of Shia Islam. So by going to najev and Carbola,
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  Speaker 3: excuse me, it was Carbalo where he was killed and
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  Speaker 3: his family members were killed, So that mirrors the way
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  Speaker 3: they're putting out the death of Hamoni and his family
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  Speaker 3: sort of the parallel to saying the parallel to martyrdom
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  Speaker 3: and resistance. But politically, it's also playing a role of
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  Speaker 3: Iran still has a very powerful presence in Iraq and
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  Speaker 3: a Shia presence at that which they gained that foothold
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  Speaker 3: after the invasion of the US invasion, and so this
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  Speaker 3: is a political and a spiritual religious kind of move
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  Speaker 3: to have gone from Tehran, a holy city of Kolm,
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  Speaker 3: to the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf and now
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  Speaker 3: to Mushtad.
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  Speaker 1: And in general, Iran had emphasized this concept of a
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  Speaker 1: Shia crescent of its influence in the Middle East that
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  Speaker 1: went beyond and only its own borders, but into Iraq,
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  Speaker 1: into Yemen. So is Iran trying to send a message
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  Speaker 1: to the US with its funeral staging for its former
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  Speaker 1: supreme leader.
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a sending a message to the world because
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  Speaker 3: Heswell is still active in southern Lebanon. They had fought
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  Speaker 3: and the Iranians had fought on the side of the
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  Speaker 3: Shahalah side in the civil war in Syria, and like
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  Speaker 3: you said, Yemen and Iraq, and so it really shows
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  Speaker 3: the dominance or what they're trying to show, avoiding the
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  Speaker 3: domestic issues at home and showing that these massive crowds
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  Speaker 3: are part of this, you know, continued revolutionary zeal this
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  Speaker 3: still belief system. And you did see, you know, millions
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  Speaker 3: of people comparatively to all these places. It can't be dismissed.
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  Speaker 3: But moch Tabahamone has not been seen. He's not visible.
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  Speaker 3: He's like the invisible Ayatola. And what does that mean.
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  Speaker 3: I hear he's disfigured. I've heard that. Nobody can confirm that,
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  Speaker 3: but he's in hiding. He's not taking over. He's supposed
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  Speaker 3: to be the visible presence of God on earth, taking
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  Speaker 3: over from his father, and we can't see him.
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  Speaker 1: So around avoiding any focus on its domestic issues, which,
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  Speaker 1: as you've shared with us, are quite extensive. Corney Keeley,
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  Speaker 1: thank you so much for being here.