Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Trump Pump vs Dump?📉Crypto Market Update

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Trump Pump vs Dump?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: We's dive in to what Trump is doing to the markets.
0:02
Speaker 1: Do we get a pump? Do we get a dump?
0:03
Speaker 1: We'll break it all down for you. Let's get started.
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0:37
Speaker 1: Let's start off right here with this tweet, which is
0:40
Speaker 1: the White House saying that President Trump will be making
0:43
Speaker 1: an announcement at three pm. We don't know if this
0:46
Speaker 1: is going to be a positive one, so by the
0:48
Speaker 1: time this video hits it's possible this announcement will have
0:51
Speaker 1: already taken place. I'm thinking it's got something to do
0:54
Speaker 1: with China and most likely rare earths, which is the
0:57
Speaker 1: biggest issue right now that we are facing there. It's
1:00
Speaker 1: been a lot of deals being struck obviously with Argentina
1:03
Speaker 1: and many other countries now as we start to move
1:06
Speaker 1: into alternative sources for these rare ors. And that's kind
1:09
Speaker 1: of the rubbing point right now between ggping and Trump.
1:12
Speaker 1: Bitcoin whales right now though, are putting in some leverage
1:15
Speaker 1: on bitcoin shorts ahead of this announcement. So this guy's
1:19
Speaker 1: been about eighty percent right across what has been played
1:23
Speaker 1: into the market over the last little bit. A couple
1:26
Speaker 1: of points to kind of call out right here, trader say,
1:29
Speaker 1: one hundred and seven is the next line in the sand.
1:31
Speaker 1: I would kind of agree with that. We're holding around
1:33
Speaker 1: one ten a little over right now as of recording.
1:36
Speaker 1: But we are getting some pylons in this short, and
1:39
Speaker 1: it is happening again. And this point right here, this
1:43
Speaker 1: is an insider that just opened a four hundred million
1:45
Speaker 1: dollars short ahead of Trump's major announcement.
1:47
Speaker 2: Today at three. So is he right? Is he wrong?
1:50
Speaker 1: Does he know something? All these kind of things are
1:53
Speaker 1: playing into the market. I think the longer outlook here,
1:56
Speaker 1: guys is if hopefully you're not playing swing trades and
1:59
Speaker 1: you know, trades like this, and you're looking at the
2:01
Speaker 1: long term picture that'll play into it. But I will
2:04
Speaker 1: give you some, you know, some ideas as to maybe
2:07
Speaker 1: where it could be going here as we break it down.
2:10
Speaker 1: One thing to consider is the performance of the Trump
2:14
Speaker 1: administration and the holdings. If you look all the different
2:17
Speaker 1: organizations here, these guys are absolutely killing it in comparison
2:22
Speaker 1: to even Nancy Nancy Pelosi. So Trump administration out performing
2:27
Speaker 1: all other hedge funds. Every investment is up eighty percent,
2:31
Speaker 1: two investments nearing one hundred and fifty percent, so crazy times.
2:34
Speaker 1: There other things that I want to get to. Is
2:37
Speaker 1: this right here, because this is where we get into
2:39
Speaker 1: market selloffs. Trump's statements have caused major market selloffs and
2:44
Speaker 1: volatility in the crypto space. Our poll says the markets
2:47
Speaker 1: will tank at three during his announcement, So maybe he
2:51
Speaker 1: is setting everybody up for negative news when in fact
2:54
Speaker 1: it could be positive news. Many of the things that
2:57
Speaker 1: are leading to that is all drilled around the government shutdown,
3:00
Speaker 1: which is another possibility that we could see maybe something
3:05
Speaker 1: brewing with the government shutdown and reopening. Remember that Trump
3:08
Speaker 1: was the last president that did a long term government
3:11
Speaker 1: shut down more than.
3:12
Speaker 2: Thirty five days.
3:14
Speaker 3: Here.
3:14
Speaker 1: We are looking right now towards November sixteenth, which is
3:17
Speaker 1: still quite a ways out as we get into the holidays,
3:21
Speaker 1: and a lot of systems getting a lot of pressure.
3:24
Speaker 1: Now that's shutdown is underway and it's cutting a little
3:28
Speaker 1: bit deeper. This is another thing that Trump is hitting
3:31
Speaker 1: on and he's hoping on a deal for everything when
3:34
Speaker 1: it comes to the optimism with Chinese leaders Jijiping, and
3:38
Speaker 1: this is ranging from obviously the rare earth soybeans, all
3:42
Speaker 1: that good stuff. Likelihood is Trump is utilizing a lot
3:45
Speaker 1: of the technology and the finance infrastructure here in the
3:49
Speaker 1: US to put some pressure on China, and I think
3:52
Speaker 1: the other diversification, and this was something that was surprising
3:56
Speaker 1: to me. I went back and did some research on
3:57
Speaker 1: rare earth materials and back in this seventies and eighties,
4:01
Speaker 1: the United States actually was one of the world's leaders
4:04
Speaker 1: in rare earth material refining, which is the problem that
4:07
Speaker 1: we're dealing with right now with China. And of course
4:10
Speaker 1: that was all in a company that resided in the
4:13
Speaker 1: state of California.
4:15
Speaker 2: Guess wants shut it down. It was the EPA, So again.
4:18
Speaker 1: Heavy regulation put us in a bad spot that we
4:21
Speaker 1: are now faced with within China. Other things to kind
4:25
Speaker 1: of look at right here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is
4:28
Speaker 1: also going in with Jamison Greer, who's traveling ahead of
4:32
Speaker 1: Trump on Wednesday, their first off Malaysia. This is going
4:35
Speaker 1: to be with Chinese officials again again, rare earth shining
4:39
Speaker 1: up again China.
4:41
Speaker 2: Versus the globe.
4:41
Speaker 1: It's not the US, and I would agree with that
4:43
Speaker 1: because rare earth materials have fallen off dramatically in terms
4:46
Speaker 1: of export, in terms of number coming out of China.
4:50
Speaker 1: So beyond the lookouts, guys, we could see either some
4:54
Speaker 1: good news and I know it's one or the other,
4:57
Speaker 1: of course, but I feel like it might be good
4:59
Speaker 1: news at three PM going forward, or at least some
5:03
Speaker 1: positive news that could possibly correct the markets. Markets are
5:06
Speaker 1: trading as if every escalation automatically de escalates. I think
5:09
Speaker 1: that's just the nature of Trump in general. He has
5:13
Speaker 1: such an unusual tactic that he's had forever. I don't
5:16
Speaker 1: know why that anybody is surprised it. This goes all
5:18
Speaker 1: the way back to the Apprentice. So it's not as
5:20
Speaker 1: if you couldn't anticipate what's.
5:23
Speaker 2: Been going on.
5:24
Speaker 1: Trump's meeting with Gigiping by October thirty first just spiked.
5:27
Speaker 1: And this is what I want to show you because
5:30
Speaker 1: this would give me hope that we might see a
5:32
Speaker 1: market up trend and coming in from a seventy five
5:37
Speaker 1: percent chance to immediately a ninety one percent chance. So
5:42
Speaker 1: the market knows and is watching a lot of these
5:44
Speaker 1: indicators that could and Trump is kind of this way
5:48
Speaker 1: where he starts to soften the rhetoric, then there's a
5:51
Speaker 1: meeting that gets done. It's this is a typical political
5:55
Speaker 1: foray that they're going back and forth with. I want
5:57
Speaker 1: to go over to a quick clip that will kind
6:00
Speaker 1: of recap some of this.
6:01
Speaker 2: Take a look, Scott.
6:02
Speaker 4: That's right. Treasure Secretary Scott Bessen just stopped and talked
6:05
Speaker 4: to some reporters here on the north lawn of the
6:07
Speaker 4: White House. I asked him about that report earlier today
6:11
Speaker 4: that the US is considering software curbs for China in
6:16
Speaker 4: retaliation for the Chinese action on trade. And this is
6:19
Speaker 4: tricky for investor, Scott, because as you weigh all these headlines,
6:22
Speaker 4: you have to figure how much of this is sort
6:24
Speaker 4: of trade saber rattling ahead of the meeting next week,
6:27
Speaker 4: and how much of this is really actually on the table,
6:30
Speaker 4: actually likely to happen. We know that the President is
6:33
Speaker 4: departing from Malaysia on Friday. We know that the Treasury
6:37
Speaker 4: Secretary has said that he'll be having meetings with the
6:40
Speaker 4: Chinese delegation as early as this weekend. So all of
6:44
Speaker 4: this next couple of days in the run up to
6:46
Speaker 4: those meetings could be both sides jockeying for position in
6:50
Speaker 4: those talks, saying, hey, you know, if you're coming at
6:52
Speaker 4: us with this as a reminder, we have that response
6:55
Speaker 4: ready to go. But no. The whole vibe from the
6:58
Speaker 4: Treasure Secretary was this meeting is on. But you did
7:01
Speaker 4: hear the President yesterday raise the prospects sort of unprompted,
7:06
Speaker 4: you know that the meeting could not happen between himself
7:08
Speaker 4: and Xijiping. He said, sometimes people might pull out of
7:11
Speaker 4: a meeting, that might say things are too nasty to
7:13
Speaker 4: have a meeting right now. The President said, you know,
7:16
Speaker 4: but this is just business, so it's not too nasty.
7:18
Speaker 4: So it sounded like the President was suggesting that Xi
7:21
Speaker 4: Jinping was the one who might pull out of the
7:23
Speaker 4: meeting before it happens. Tentatively at the end of next week.
7:27
Speaker 4: White House officials will point out to you that no
7:30
Speaker 4: meeting has officially been scheduled.
7:33
Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of points to kind of
7:35
Speaker 1: understand there is it boils down to one thing. Trump's
7:38
Speaker 1: wanting to make a deal, and I think it's just
7:41
Speaker 1: a matter of them finding something that works for both
7:44
Speaker 1: China and the US, and he continues to make deals.
7:47
Speaker 1: I mean, he's obviously made a deal with TikTok.
7:49
Speaker 2: We've got a lot.
7:50
Speaker 1: Going on in terms of trade tensions that could be released.
7:54
Speaker 1: But I think Trump is in a position right now
7:56
Speaker 1: where he is forced now his own hand around rare Earth.
8:01
Speaker 1: It's not necessarily his fault, but definitely he's having to
8:03
Speaker 1: deal with it. Other things that play into the market,
8:05
Speaker 1: of course, of the FMC. We'll be doing a live
8:07
Speaker 1: stream next week six days out there. Now, we've got
8:11
Speaker 1: a potential fifty basis points cut by the year end
8:14
Speaker 1: are increasing, and many people still looking at could we
8:17
Speaker 1: see a seventy five meaning a quarter and then fifty
8:20
Speaker 1: or fifty and a quarter. That's kind of what we're
8:22
Speaker 1: looking at between now and December. In terms of information,
8:27
Speaker 1: the FED is kind of flying blind here right now,
8:29
Speaker 1: So the blackout continues. No September job reports, no inflation data.
8:35
Speaker 1: I'm curious to what's going to come online when we
8:39
Speaker 1: come back with the government and we see at least
8:42
Speaker 1: this data starting to accumulate in. Does this change the
8:45
Speaker 1: Fed's position around all of this. So the one thing
8:49
Speaker 1: that considered, though, I want to go back to that
8:50
Speaker 1: tweet real quick, is this right here, even whereas the
8:53
Speaker 1: FED is lost access now to ADP's private payroll data,
8:58
Speaker 1: and that's twenty percent of us private work, so that's
9:00
Speaker 1: gone dark as well. ADP is a big deal because
9:03
Speaker 1: ADP is real numbers coming from American payroll. So this
9:08
Speaker 1: is a factor that Powell does not necessarily have in place.
9:10
Speaker 1: If you look at the poly market right there, boom,
9:13
Speaker 1: you've got almost a one hundred percent chance of a
9:16
Speaker 1: quarter coming in for next week, and of course that
9:21
Speaker 1: raises as you go into December. We hold at right
9:24
Speaker 1: around eighty percent on December, and then even in January,
9:29
Speaker 1: which would be the third cut end of January, it's
9:32
Speaker 1: still about a fifty to fifty on no change versus
9:36
Speaker 1: a twenty five at below, which is about forty two
9:38
Speaker 1: percent right now. So let me jump to this tweet
9:40
Speaker 1: right here, breaking President Trump pardons finance founder CZ absolutely
9:46
Speaker 1: in my opinion, unacceptable.
9:48
Speaker 2: If this guy was that bad to.
9:50
Speaker 1: Get a federal offense like that and it was proven
9:54
Speaker 1: and it did, and the deals that he made with
9:56
Speaker 1: the Justice Department, all of that and he's already done.
10:00
Speaker 1: I mean, so what benefit is this other than giving
10:03
Speaker 1: him more business access benefits globally just not necessarily in
10:08
Speaker 1: my bag in terms of a good decision. Adam Cochran
10:11
Speaker 1: kind of broke it down because Caz admitted these sanctions
10:15
Speaker 1: and sanctioned violations, so he knowingly did this.
10:19
Speaker 2: And then remember that there are some partnerships here.
10:24
Speaker 1: He partnered with trump'sho are Liberty five, partnered with Dominari
10:27
Speaker 1: Holdings that's Trump's sons. He invested in projects in yzy
10:31
Speaker 1: Labs formerly Binance, now this is a CZ partner. Then
10:35
Speaker 1: he was partnered by Trump less than a month later.
10:37
Speaker 1: So apparently it's pay for crime. That's the only thing
10:42
Speaker 1: I agree with Adam in that point. But I think
10:45
Speaker 1: this is something that anyone that is in this kind
10:48
Speaker 1: of role, because I mean, there's guys out there people
10:50
Speaker 1: that have done much, much, much, much less and are
10:53
Speaker 1: not getting presidential pardons out there. Other news that are
10:57
Speaker 1: hitting is this news right here. Gold is back forty
11:00
Speaker 1: one fifty the low correction. Many people kind of thought
11:03
Speaker 1: that was a little bit of a manipulation, both on
11:05
Speaker 1: gold and silver. They're testing out a handful of support
11:09
Speaker 1: levels and we are starting to look at maybe four
11:12
Speaker 1: thousand being the new floor. And then with that, Peter
11:16
Speaker 1: Shift drops another bomb, which I think is important.
11:20
Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
11:22
Speaker 3: So you might as well just have tokenized gold and
11:26
Speaker 3: have something that's stable to the price of gold. I'm
11:29
Speaker 3: probably gonna launch my own token at some point. I'm
11:33
Speaker 3: I'm building out a platform on shift gold right now. No,
11:37
Speaker 3: but well, so you can buy gold at shift gold
11:39
Speaker 3: right on an app on your phone. We won't send
11:43
Speaker 3: you the actual gold. The gold will be stored in
11:45
Speaker 3: a vault that you own and you have it, and
11:48
Speaker 3: you'll be able to transfer ownership of that gold to
11:52
Speaker 3: other people, you know through the app, and you could
11:55
Speaker 3: use it, you know, as a media exchange. You can
11:57
Speaker 3: pay or be paid in gold instantly, and you can
12:00
Speaker 3: redeem it in physical gold, or eventually you can redeem
12:03
Speaker 3: it in a token. I'm also going to give people
12:06
Speaker 3: a debit card.
12:08
Speaker 1: All right, well, I mean Peter, that's great, this is
12:11
Speaker 1: out there right now. Paxos of course has a tather
12:13
Speaker 1: of course. Now granted, the interesting point here is you've
12:17
Speaker 1: got a physical network that could have the capacity to
12:20
Speaker 1: do physical delivery. That's an interesting component that could make
12:24
Speaker 1: a big difference here with Shiff, CZ of course attacked
12:28
Speaker 1: this saying the obvious. Most people in crypto know this.
12:30
Speaker 1: Most people not in crypto understand. Tokenizing gold is not
12:33
Speaker 1: on chain gold. It's tokenizing trust some third party will
12:37
Speaker 1: give you gold at some later date. It's a trust
12:39
Speaker 1: me bro token. Now, if this is audited, you know,
12:44
Speaker 1: there's a handful of products out there that are audited
12:47
Speaker 1: with physical trust, and those I agree would not be
12:51
Speaker 1: trust me bro. I don't know where Schiff is going
12:53
Speaker 1: with this. We'll try to get him on the channel
12:55
Speaker 1: to talk about this, because he and I actually the
12:57
Speaker 1: last time he was on the show, we were talking
12:59
Speaker 1: about tokenizing gold and why he didn't just do that,
13:03
Speaker 1: And now here he is going in on maybe making
13:07
Speaker 1: that a reality. Another thing that you have to consider
13:10
Speaker 1: right now going into the next leg up, because this
13:13
Speaker 1: could happen over what is and will be I think
13:16
Speaker 1: an elongated cycle of what we're seeing right now, and
13:20
Speaker 1: that is how we're going to see these cycles rotate.
13:23
Speaker 1: Part of this comes from the money market area, and
13:26
Speaker 1: of course you're looking at almost seven and a half
13:28
Speaker 1: trillion now setting in money markets. This continues to just skyrocket.
13:32
Speaker 1: Look at that crazy number right there, guys continuing to move.
13:36
Speaker 1: This was an interesting take, and this is one that
13:39
Speaker 1: I agree with because I've seen all of these things happen.
13:42
Speaker 1: Let me showcase this tweet right here. This was by
13:45
Speaker 1: Shanaka Pereira, a researcher on this, and he's what he's
13:48
Speaker 1: talking about, is this seven.
13:50
Speaker 2: Point trillion detonator.
13:53
Speaker 1: Now, there's a few things in the article that I
13:55
Speaker 1: want to get to, but the big one is this
13:56
Speaker 1: right here. The historical pattern nobody really remembers.
14:00
Speaker 2: Ninety eight. Of course, this all was the tech bubble
14:03
Speaker 2: fed cuts.
14:04
Speaker 1: We had a one point three trillion money market funds
14:06
Speaker 1: activate two thousand and three. Housing mania began Activation nine
14:12
Speaker 1: right after the eight you know, economic crisis. Another thing
14:16
Speaker 1: hits another rally and a three point eight trillion come
14:19
Speaker 1: into the market, and now here we're setting on a
14:21
Speaker 1: seven point four trillion. So there's a lot to look at,
14:24
Speaker 1: and there's many triggles triggers that can play into this.
14:27
Speaker 1: So this gets very interesting because of the real question.
14:32
Speaker 1: And everybody will say, well, Paul, not all that's going
14:34
Speaker 1: to be going into risk assets, and I will say, yes,
14:36
Speaker 1: of course not. And it's possible that people could be
14:38
Speaker 1: waiting for the FED to activate. Smart money is probably
14:42
Speaker 1: trying to move ahead of the puck, trying to activate
14:45
Speaker 1: either in a bitcoin eat while it is somewhat recessed,
14:49
Speaker 1: and move in before we start to see rate cuts
14:53
Speaker 1: coming down, money market funds decreasing, and people looking for
14:57
Speaker 1: spots because at that at that point, you've got risk
14:59
Speaker 1: asset starting to climb. So in some cases you could
15:02
Speaker 1: be up as much as ten twenty thirty percent in
15:05
Speaker 1: a difference of a trade, just because if you've moved early,
15:07
Speaker 1: So a lot of things could play. Where I think
15:11
Speaker 1: this will go is early money will win. Let me
15:15
Speaker 1: jump over to fear and greed. This is another indicator
15:17
Speaker 1: that could be setting up for kind of that long
15:20
Speaker 1: term play that I'm getting at, is money market money
15:23
Speaker 1: coming off the sidelines, what we're seeing regulatory front, what
15:27
Speaker 1: we could see in trade, what could be happening in
15:30
Speaker 1: the economy all correcting. Look at fear and greed holding
15:33
Speaker 1: right now at around twenty eight last time you start
15:35
Speaker 1: to see these dips in these red zones, jumps in,
15:39
Speaker 1: jumps out, jumps in, jumps out, and then we start
15:41
Speaker 1: to see these moves upward in terms of fear and greed.
15:43
Speaker 1: That might be where we could be nearing the bottom.
15:46
Speaker 1: So pay close attention to the markets. Hopefully you're not
15:49
Speaker 1: going to be in a position where you have to
15:52
Speaker 1: sell an asset because assets look forward, Guys look forward
15:56
Speaker 1: into multi year holding.
15:57
Speaker 2: That's the way to go. Another thing that.
15:59
Speaker 1: Could get us out of this is, of course Clarity Act,
16:01
Speaker 1: and here is Brian Armstrong talking about that.
16:04
Speaker 2: Take a look.
16:05
Speaker 5: And so one date we heard floated was let's try
16:08
Speaker 5: to get this markup done before Thanksgiving. I think that
16:12
Speaker 5: there's ninety percent of the issues are already aligned on
16:15
Speaker 5: and agreed, and there's draft text going back and forth,
16:17
Speaker 5: a lot of great cross functional collaboration happening. That last
16:21
Speaker 5: ten percent are the remaining issues, and everyone committed to
16:24
Speaker 5: get in the room together and work it out and
16:26
Speaker 5: hopefully we'll see some draft texts or get it out
16:28
Speaker 5: of committee by Thanksgiving.
16:30
Speaker 1: Okay, So when I look at Brian right there doing
16:32
Speaker 1: that interview, he has very unusual face response there.
16:37
Speaker 2: Do you guys see that?
16:38
Speaker 1: I mean, have you seen other interviews where he's kind
16:41
Speaker 1: of had that smirky smile? Does he know something here
16:44
Speaker 1: that this could be a reality And this would be
16:47
Speaker 1: huge if we get something by Thanksgiving, that would be huge.
16:51
Speaker 1: Another factor that plays in to where this could all
16:55
Speaker 1: be going is this right here, Fidelity a brokerage account.
16:59
Speaker 1: If you are in right now, you probably notice something new.
17:02
Speaker 1: It's called Solana. It's now in there. It's tradable now,
17:06
Speaker 1: you can't move it in and out. It's you know,
17:08
Speaker 1: it's brokerage account, but you can't buy it. So you're
17:11
Speaker 1: getting exposure now. And there are many people that will
17:14
Speaker 1: never move out of Fidelity and they're going to buy
17:17
Speaker 1: Solana here. And the other thing we'll probably see is
17:21
Speaker 1: other tokens. So you can kind of read read between
17:24
Speaker 1: the lines. Just go to the big ones and you'll
17:26
Speaker 1: probably see the next few that will make their way
17:28
Speaker 1: into the Fidelity app. I anticipate that's going to be
17:31
Speaker 1: coming for sure. Here's Nick Dukeoff. He was talking about
17:34
Speaker 1: the mag seven and he added one to the list
17:37
Speaker 1: right there, Alphabet Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tasla, Mag seven,
17:42
Speaker 1: Solana as the Mag eight.
17:44
Speaker 2: I'm going to disagree with that.
17:47
Speaker 1: Salon's a great product, great project love, it got lots
17:51
Speaker 1: of use case, super efficient, But I think the real
17:54
Speaker 1: MAG eight would have to be Ethereum flowing into this
17:58
Speaker 1: group only because it has so much of network effect
18:03
Speaker 1: really across all sorts of areas, including what could be tokenization,
18:07
Speaker 1: real world assets, you name it. We're leading there. Here's
18:10
Speaker 1: Tom Lee. I think tokeniz's real world assets. We'll go
18:13
Speaker 1: from thirty four billion, notice the number here, thirty four
18:16
Speaker 1: billion to three hundred billion in the next twelve months.
18:19
Speaker 1: That's almost a ten x in tokenized real world assets,
18:24
Speaker 1: all of that happening on uneath. That's why I think
18:27
Speaker 1: that is the Mag eight. If you want to call
18:29
Speaker 1: eth a MAG eight.
18:31
Speaker 2: All right, guys, if.
18:32
Speaker 1: You're not in our diamond circle, make sure and get
18:34
Speaker 1: in there. You can, of course joined by the link
18:36
Speaker 1: down below.
18:37
Speaker 2: It's very easy.
18:38
Speaker 1: Follow me on TikTok. We're gonna do TikTok today. It's official.
18:42
Speaker 2: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time.
18:43
Speaker 1: Right here on the Paul Baron Show,