Latest / Real Estate Note Investing / Episode 31: Analyzing Borrower Pay Strings

Transcript

Episode 31: Analyzing Borrower Pay Strings · Real Estate Note Investing

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the show, where you'll learn how to invest in mortgage notes, the savvy real estate investor's secret weapon to create cash flow without tenants and property acquisitions for pennies on the dollar.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Robert Haitha, founder of Fix Notes, and my mission is to make note investing ethical, profitable, and accessible for you.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: In every episode, we're democratizing the industry to put these powerful Wall Street assets into the hands of mainstream investors like you.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: So without further ado, let's get into the show where you're in good hands with my AI clone.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: This program is for informational purposes only and should be independently verified before taking action.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: When you open up a credit report and scroll down to the trade lines, you are going to see a series of digits that looks almost like a secret code.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: This is the Pastring, and it is one of the most powerful tools in your due diligence kit.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: It is a month-by-month history of exactly how a borrower handles their debt, and it tells you a lot more than a simple credit score ever could.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: A credit score is just a snapshot, but the pastring is the entire movie of their financial life.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: In our industry, we use a standard scale to read these strings.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: A number one means the borrower is current and paying as agreed.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: A two means they are 30 days late, a three is 60 days late, and a four is 90 days late.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: If you see a five, it typically means they are 120 days late or more.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: That is the danger zone where foreclosure proceedings usually begin.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes you will see other codes like an O for an open account or a dash for no data reported that month.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: But the digits one through five are where you will find the most important information.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: It is also vital to know the direction you are reading.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: These strings are presented in reverse chronological order.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: This means the first digit on the far left is the most recent month reported.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: If you see a five on the far left followed by a four, then a three, you are watching a fresh default happen in real time.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: You can see exactly when the wheels fell off.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: But if you see 12 ones in a row, you are looking at a borrower who has been perfectly consistent for an entire year.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: For an investor looking at second mortgages, the pay string of the senior lien is the ultimate indicator of the borrower's intentions.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: If the first mortgage shows a solid string of ones, you know the borrower is highly motivated to keep the house.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: They are making that large payment every single month because they value their home, their neighborhood, and their children's school district.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: We call this emotional equity.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Even if they have stopped paying the second mortgage, the fact that they are protecting the first means they are much more likely to work out a deal with you.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: They have something to lose, and that gives you leverage.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: You should also look for specific patterns like a rolling 30.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: This is when you see a string of twos month after month.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: It tells you the borrower is struggling but has a disciplined habit.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: They are making a full payment every month, but they just cannot seem to catch up on that one month they missed a long time ago.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: These are some of the best candidates for a resolution, because you know they have the cash flow to sustain a payment.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: They just need a small concession to get back to current status.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: A very different pattern is what we call the bounce.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: This is a pastring that jumps between ones, threes, and fives.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: This suggests a chaotic or unstable financial life, often tied to seasonal work or irregular income.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: These borrowers might pay you three months of back payments all at once and then vanish for a quarter.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Dealing with them requires more patience and a different kind of workout structure, perhaps one that allows for occasional larger payments.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Another interesting pattern is the 321 sequence.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: This shows a borrower who repeatedly falls behind, but then makes a double payment to catch up before they hit that 90-day mark.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: This tells you they understand the consequences of foreclosure and are actively managing their delinquency to stay just safe enough.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: They are sophisticated in their own way, and you can use that sophistication to negotiate a more sustainable long-term plan.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: By analyzing these strings across all trade lines, you can see where you fall in the borrower's hierarchy of needs.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: I once reviewed a report where a borrower was paying for a luxury boat and a high-end car every single month, all ones across those lines, but they hadn't paid their$50 a month second mortgage in three years.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: That is a priority issue, not a poverty issue.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: That insight gives you massive leverage in a negotiation because you know they have the cash, you just have to convince them that the risk of losing their home is greater than the benefit of keeping that boat.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand, if you see a credit report where every single trade line is a five, including medical bills and credit cards, you are looking at someone who is likely completely checked out.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: This borrower is often a candidate for bankruptcy or a deed in lieu of foreclosure because their financial ship has already sunk.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Understanding this through the pay string saves you months of wasted effort trying to get a payment plan that was never going to happen.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: Always check the reported date at the beginning of the trade line as well.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: If the last report was from two years ago, that Pastring is stale and potentially useless.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: You want to see data that has been updated within the last 60 days to ensure you are making decisions based on the borrower's current reality.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: If the data is old, you might need to order a fresh credit scrub or pull a new report to see if they have started paying again recently.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Understanding these patterns is what allows you to move past the numbers and see the human story behind the debt.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: It helps you separate the borrowers who have walked away from the ones who are just waiting for a fair resolution.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: It turns your due diligence from a guessing game into a strategic assessment of risk and reward.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now that you know how to read the story written in the pay strings, you can start to figure out which of these accounts are actually your best opportunities for a workout.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Next time we are diving into identifying strong reperformance candidates.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for sticking around to the end, and thank you to my trusty Rabba and the Fixed Notes team for putting together another episode.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to learn more and hang out with the real not AI version of me, join our free school community at school.com slash fixed notes.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's s k o l dot com slash f I X N O T E S.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: In the meantime, we'll see you in the next episode.