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AI Won, But Who Pays The Gap? · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: The railroads worked.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Railroads.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, why is that so hard to say?
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: The internet?
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that worked too.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: AI?
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's gonna work.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: So why do I think it's going to hurt?
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, every big technology in history did what the dreamers said it would do.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: The tracks got laid, the fiber got buried, the machines got smarter, and the money moved in the same order over and over.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: The early money gets in cheap, right?
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: The founders, the venture funds, the insiders, the moonshot people, the story gets bigger, the price goes up, and the early money starts to sell.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Who buys it?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the late money buys it.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Regular people, retirement accounts, pension funds, index funds, and then the bust comes.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: The early money already cashed out, they already got paid.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: The late money is what eats the loss.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: And then when the smoke clears, that early money, the patient money, they come in and pick everything up for pennies.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Not every investor, not every boom, but that pattern, it keeps repeating.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: The people in the middle don't get paid later.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: The people in the middle are how the early money gets paid.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: The venture folks, the fancy folks, the ones that say it's going to be a little rough.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: In 2008, I sat at kitchen tables in this valley with families who had done everything right.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: They worked, they paid on time, they raised their kids or didn't raise their kids, whether they had them or not, but they didn't cause the crash.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: These are hardworking people, police officers, firefighters, EMTs, teachers, nurses, my gosh, people from all walks of life.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: And again, they didn't cause the crash, but they still paid for it.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody on television looked at those families in the eye and told them, hey, it's going to be a little rough.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that phrase only works from far away.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I hear that phrase a lot right now.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: I watch almost all of the big AI podcasts at 1.5 speed, of course.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Who has time?
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: The moonshot crowd, the abundance crowd, and you know, I do love the vision.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: I want the vision.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: I want cures, cheap energy, a world where nobody has to do the miserable work.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: But every time somebody smart and comfortable says the transition might be a little rough, I want to ask one question.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Rough for who?
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on to one number for me, that's 46%.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: It comes from the last time machines changed everything, and it's half of a pair.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: The other half is the part that hurts.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm coming back to that.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: History doesn't say what the doomers say.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: The technology doesn't fail.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's the timing that fails.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Booms go bust when the money shows up before the payoff.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: In the 1870s, a bank called J.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Cook and Company was selling bonds for the Northern Pacific Railroad.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Its ads were aimed at the farmer, the mechanic, and the laborer.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Working people told this was a safe place for their savings.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: On September 18, 1873, the bank closed its doors.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: The New York Stock Exchange shut down for 10 days.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Ten days?
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: More than 10,000 businesses failed in the years that followed, but the railroads still got built.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Freight still runs on those lines today.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: The tracks survived.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of working people's savings did not.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: I call that stretch the gap years, the years between the breakthrough and the payoff.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And we're living in those years right now.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's never whether AI is going to work.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to work.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's already working.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: The question is who's standing in the gap when it does?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: And how long they stand there, which brings us back to that number.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Britain, 1780 to 1840.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Industrial Revolution.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Output per worker went up 46%.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Real wages for those same workers went up 12%, 46% against 12% for about 50 years.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Economists call that Ingalls Pause.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: The machines worked, the factories made more than ever, and the people running the machines didn't share in it for about two generations.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to wait.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Their grandkids got the payoff.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Last time, a little rough was a lifetime.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: And it's only money.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's not only money.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's a lie.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: In 2015, two Princeton economists, Ann Case and Angus D.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: T, published research showing midlife deaths rising among Americans without a college degree, overdoses, alcohol, suicide.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: They called them deaths of despair.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: When good work disappears and nothing replaces it, people don't just get poorer.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Some of them die.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: In my own line of work as an LAPD cop, I learned that the call nobody wants to answer usually starts years earlier with a door that closed and nothing that opened next or behind it.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: But history has a second half, and it's the hopeful half.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Every transition that got better got better because somebody built something on purpose.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: In 1933, this country started insuring bank deposits.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: So one bank failure couldn't wipe out a family savings.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: In 1938, the 40-hour work week became federal law.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: In 1944, the GI Bill passed, and by 1956, 7.8 million of the 60 million World War II veterans had used it for school or job training.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: None of that happened by itself.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: People fought for every one of those.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: That change is coming either way.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: How much damage it does is a choice.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: So where do I stand?
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: I build businesses with AI every single day.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: I use it to research, to draft, to answer the phone when nobody else can.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not afraid of the tool.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I watch who owns the games.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a difference between a hammer and a ring.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: A hammer works for whoever is holding it, and you check its work.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: A ring of power promises you everything and slowly starts running you.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: The superintelligence pitch sounds like a ring to me.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Hand it the keys.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: It knows best.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: The way I use AI is as a hammer.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: I make that final call.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: It tells people it is AI.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: And if I unplugged it tomorrow, I could still run the business.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: So the next time somebody tells you the future will be amazing and the transition is going to be a little rough, ask them three things.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: Who pays during the transition?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: By name?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Which jobs?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Which towns?
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: Which years?
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: How many years is a little rough?
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: And what do you personally lose?
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: What do you personally use?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh great Oracle, if you are wrong.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: And if they can't answer those three, you're listening to a sales pitch.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: A sales pitch, not a forecast.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't want to just complain about the people at the top because the moonshot crown has a playbook that works in 2004, 10 million prize, got a private team to fly to space twice in two weeks.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: They run prizes for oceans, for health, for carbon.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: So where's the moonshot for the transition?
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Where is the moonshot for the transition itself?
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Where is the prize that's going to carry working people across the gap for that solution?
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's what we're going to build on this show week by week, from the ground floor.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Not a protest, not doomerism, a plan.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: The transition moonshot, I want to call it.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: The future is coming either way.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: The only question is who gets carried across that gap and who gets told it's a little rough.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Next week early money and late money.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Who holds the bag if the AI boom busts?
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: And why your retirement may already be part of that bet?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: Tell me in the comments what you'd ask the people building this.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: The best questions go on the show.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: The railroads worked, the internet worked, and AI is going to work as well.