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Episode 26 - 4/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 26 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
• 0:33
  Everyone happy Thirsty Thursday. We are one day closer to the
• 0:37
  weekend and we got a lot to get to today, guys.
• 0:39
  Because I'm going to talk some NFL draft with you.
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  Because we are now officially just one week away from the NFL
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  draft and starting to crystallize a little bit here
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  with some line movement as well as some mock drafts, which I
• 0:51
  think are more important now. Obviously, then you know, you go
• 0:54
  back even weeks and months prior because a lot of not just, you
• 0:58
  know, prognosticating, but information leaking out to these
• 1:01
  people who are dialed in are really moving numbers here.
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  So I actually have a 5 pack of NFL draft prop bets for you.
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  I'm going to give you some tips, some things to do between now
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  and a week from today. So you can hopefully monitor the
• 1:13
  market and cash some plays and of course dish out these five
• 1:16
  prop bets and really looking for numbers that are kind of a
• 1:19
  little bit anticipatory in terms of getting good numbers now
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  thinking that you know over the next few days and leading up to
• 1:25
  the draft will get better in our case or worse depending upon the
• 1:29
  price of the number. So really time to pounce is now
• 1:32
  because we want to follow that late movement but also get good
• 1:35
  numbers. So we're going to talk NFL draft
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  for today, officially unveil my first five picks and I'll tell
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  you why. I love betting the NFL draft
• 1:41
  because it is a information based bet which can really pad
• 1:45
  your bankroll and help you to build your bankroll.
• 1:47
  But then of course you'd have some sweats for today.
• 1:49
  It's kind of a smaller than usual slate.
• 1:50
  I have one baseball bet for you. I have one NHL bet for you.
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  That's right. I'm going to dip my toe back in
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  the NHL. Think there's an edge on this
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  one team here tonight. Hopefully get it done.
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  But looking back to our last night guys, all I got to say are
• 2:02
  two words. Bogdanovich and rhythm.
• 2:05
  Getting it done for the team. Bogdan Bogdanovich, our number
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  one player prop on the pod yesterday.
• 2:11
  Over 16 1/2 points. It was a sweat, but it came
• 2:14
  through rhythm. Predicted 20.7 points and this
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  just goes to show you and proves to you how good rhythm is.
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  Will they get every single one right?
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  Of course not. Nobody can get every bet right.
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  Even the ridiculous AI backed models can't get them all right.
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  But to prove that rhythm is on to something here, which is why
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  I was so excited to team up with the rhythm because I believe in
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  them. They predicted 20.7 points.
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  Our guy Bogdanovich landed on 21 points.
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  So almost exactly what rhythm had predicted.
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  And that was a swept because Bogdanovich, he hit like the
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  side of the backboard to start. I think he only had two or four
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  points through the first quarter.
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  He had 10 at half. And we're like, OK, we're on
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  pace. And then I got really nervous.
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  I'm like, OK, are you gonna give me another nightmare scenario
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  here, 'cause Bogdanovich was sitting on 16 points deep in the
• 2:59
  fourth quarter when it was getting out of hand and the
• 3:02
  Bulls were absolutely rolling. And I was like, OK, number one,
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  is he even gonna get back in the game?
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  You know, what's Quinn Snyder, who's a kind of an interesting
• 3:10
  looking guy? He doesn't look like an NBA
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  coach of those glasses. It looks like one of my college
• 3:14
  professors from the University of Vermont.
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  But anyway, I'm like #1 in a game that is technically a
• 3:19
  playoff game but kind of means nothing and it's a blowout.
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  Will Bogdanovich even get back in the game, and will he be able
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  to score? One more point?
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  I'm like, OK, I can see this landing on 16.
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  We're going to get screwed over 16, half land 16.
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  But no, Bogdanovich nailed a three.
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  He had another bucket. He landed on 21.
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  So it's great to see Bogdanovich over 16 half points cash for the
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  team. Now in terms of our bets overall
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  yesterday on the POD, it was two and three.
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  We got the Bogdanovich over, we got the Mariners.
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  The Guardians couldn't do anything with the bats.
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  Tanner Hauck was just incredible.
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  Cardinals came up short against the A's and the D backs had an
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  early lead and blew it against the Cubs.
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  So official pod plays were two and 3 -, 1.5 units.
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  But you may have had a winning day yesterday because it was a
• 4:01
  good start to the day with some early baseball games.
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  And I always kind of want to let you guys know that you know the
• 4:07
  Pod and I have had couple people reach out and say can you get it
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  out earlier in the day, which I want to do.
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  But the other thing is I don't want to get it out too early
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  because I always want to wait for late moves to come in and
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  lineups to get released and questions about injuries.
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  So it's kind of this gift and a curse if I want to get it
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  earlier to you guys, but also don't want to get it too early
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  because the value of waiting later to seeing late moves come
• 4:28
  in, that's also important. But I am going to try to get out
• 4:30
  a little bit earlier if I can, but that all goes to Goes to
• 4:34
  Show or is my point in saying that I do write an article for
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  vcn.com, which is called the Sharp Report or it's basically
• 4:41
  titled like the top betting splits of the day for MLB.
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  So you can always check my Twitter page at Josh under score
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  Insights for earlier bets in the day.
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  And I say that because they're a couple good winners earlier in
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  the day that I mentioned on my in my daily article.
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  One was the Orioles walking it off with Cedric Mullins hitting
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  the bomb, which was great, and then also the Braves winning an
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  extra innings with that road favorite system match.
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  So if you played the earlier games, you had a winning day 4
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  and 3 + 0.1 units. So we continue to grind on a big
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  Thursday here. So we're going to dive into our
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  two bets, 2 sweats for today and then I think what a lot of
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  people been asking for and I'm about to deliver the NFL draft,
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  how to bet it, how to approach it, tips on how to take
• 5:19
  advantage in this final week as well as I have 5 picks for you.
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  So let's see if we can cash a few of these and build our
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  bankroll. But anyway, let's start in Major
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  League Baseball because it is a very small slate.
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  In Major League Baseball, there's only five games overall.
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  I am sweating a couple day games right now, so hoping those go my
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  way. But there's one game later that
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  caught my eye, and it is the Miami Marlins and the Chicago
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  Cubs. So I'm going to go with the
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  Cubbies here. I'm going Cubs.
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  I got the Cubs at -160. Little background here.
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  Miami Marlins. We all know they're one of the
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  worst teams in baseball right there with the Chicago White
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  Sox, but they're 4 and 15. They just dropped two of three
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  against the Giants. They lost three to one yesterday
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  as a -, 1 O 5 home dog. On the other hand, the Cubbies
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  playing well, 11 and seven. I'm not glad they won yesterday
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  because I was on the other side. I took the Snakes, but anyway,
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  took two of three against Arizona.
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  They won five to three yesterday as a + 110 Rd. dog.
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  So pitching match up here for tonight 7:40 PM Eastern Time
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  game at Wrigley Field which by the way bucket list you got to
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  get to Wrigley. I went in 2011 with my buddies
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  which was now feels like an eternity go.
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  We're in our we're in our early 20s.
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  We had a great time. It was the year that Bobby
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  Valentine was the manager of the Red Sox.
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  So even though Bobby V in that 2011 season was terrible we had
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  a great time going to Wrigley Field.
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  So highly recommend getting out there.
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  It's if you're a fan of Fenway, you got to love Wrigley as well.
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  Anyway, side note, if you look at the pitching match of
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  tonight, Miami is going with a lefty AJ puck who's O and three
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  5.91 ERA. Chicago is going with Rady
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  Jameson tie on. Remember they signed him as a
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  free agent a couple years ago. He's making his 2024 debut.
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  He was 8 and 10 with a 4.84 ERA last year for the Cubbies.
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  So what we've seen across the market here, well, pretty
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  standard sharp move toward the Chicago Cubs.
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  The Cubs open this game around -150.
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  We've seen the Cubs now get bet up to -160.
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  I see some shops even closer to -165 S pretty pretty, you know,
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  one sided movement no buy back. As soon as this line dropped,
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  pros hit the Cubs. They're continuing to hit the
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  Cubs. So I'm going to follow the sharp
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  action with Chicago. Cubs are getting 89% of bets,
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  91% of dollars. So that is a lopsided public
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  play but also a respected play with wiseguy money moving that
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  number. And then again, people always
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  mention to me like you know you're really taking 89% in
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  baseball. Yeah, sometimes.
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  I'll take the quote, UN quote, public side, but you got to
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  remember baseball is a much lower bet sport than like the
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  NFL or NBA. So 89% NFLNBI would never do
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  that. Baseball.
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  It doesn't bother me as much because it's a lower bet sport
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  where really it's the true grinders who bet baseball like
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  us every single day. But anyway, we've seen this big
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  move here toward the Cubs. Now the Cubs have a big edge on
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  offense. That's what I'm going to bank
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  on. They're hitting 247, they've
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  scored 101 runs. The Marlins are hitting 216,
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  they've scored just seventy runs.
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  So hopefully tie on gets the better of puck in.
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  The offense of the Cubs comes to play here today, which they've
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  proven so far this year. Also you look at the Marlins
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  bullpen. Their bullpen ERA is the second
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  worst in baseball. 5.87 Cubbies are middle of the pack 4.25.
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  We also look at some layering in some system matches.
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  So one would be a Chicago non division favorite, so lack of
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  familiarity benefiting the better team that would match
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  with Chicago. Second one would be a favorite
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  low total system match. So total in this game was 8.
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  It's down to 7 1/2 part of that. Of course, anytime you see a
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  total go up or down at Wrigley Field, you always got to look at
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  the weather because the wind can make a huge impact on the game.
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  And right now it's about 10 mph blowing in from dead center or
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  left center. So that's probably why you've
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  seen this total fall a little bit.
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  But it fell from 8 down to 7 1/2.
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  That'll make correlative betting favorite low total.
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  So if your amount of expected run scored more likely, to quote
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  UN quote, come from the better team who was favored.
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  Now if you look at home Rd. Miami two and four on the road,
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  Chicago five and one at home. So I'm going to go with the
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  cubbies here. Good, sharp steam.
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  No buyback. Open -150 up to -160 even as
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  high as -165. Give me the Cubs to get a win
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  for us tonight at Wrigley. I got Chicago at -160.
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  Now over to the NHL because yes, the NHL.
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  It's the final day of the regular season and then the
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  playoffs start, which I cannot wait for.
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  Stay tuned. I probably on tomorrow's pod.
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  I'm going to give you some series bets.
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  I like betting series bets in both the NHL and NBA playoffs.
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  Baseball as well because you can get a good number if you kind
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  of, you know kind of think through it correctly early and
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  then you can also create a hedging opportunity late
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  depending on or kind of bet against or or just let it ride.
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  It gives you a lot of options betting serious prices.
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  But the whole point to me is trying to get a good number
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  early. So stay tuned tomorrow NBANHL
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  playoff series. I want to get one more batch of
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  data from my buddy John Ewing at bet MGM so we can kind of look
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  at kind of where the smart money is leaning.
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  Then also do you have any UFC any any biting Looks like no
• 10:03
  nothing this weekend unfortunately.
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  But anyway, I got one last bet for you.
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  Final day of the NHL regular season.
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  I'm going to go to a 7:00 game, Seattle and Minnesota.
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  Now I'm going to follow a massive steam move and I'm going
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  to go with the Minnesota Wild here.
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  Give me the Wild. Shop around.
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  I got the Wild at -170. The Wild open.
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  Liz Low was like -150. Now they're up to -170.
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  Start off the bat, saw a huge move on the Minnesota Wild, and
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  I'm asking myself, OK, what's causing this move now?
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  A couple things are going on here.
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  One final game of the regular season you got to think about,
• 10:33
  you know, what does it mean to these teams Because motivation
• 10:36
  is really can be really important.
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  So one thing is both these teams are eliminated.
• 10:40
  They have nothing to play for. But if you look at Seattle,
• 10:44
  feels like Seattle's ready for the season to end.
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  They've lost four straight. You look at the flip side of
• 10:48
  Minnesota, they've won two straight.
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  And a little nugget that I was reading about when I was
• 10:51
  researching this game today is that they are starting Flurry,
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  the old goalie here in net tonight and they just resign
• 10:59
  them to another one year deal. So Marc, Andre Flurry is going
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  to stick around in Minnesota. He's going to get the start
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  tonight. I think there's kind of a, you
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  know, vibe in the locker room of of the Flurry mojo.
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  Win it for him tonight, finish off the regular season on a high
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  note. They have 1-2 straight.
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  They're building for next year. They also have a couple guys.
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  I know Caprice off is awesome, but Boldy is actually from
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  Massachusetts, not far from where I live.
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  But anyway, I think he's shooting for 30 goals.
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  So there's there's reasons for Minnesota to want to finish
• 11:27
  their season on a high note win this tonight.
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  Flurry got resigned. Meanwhile, Seattle nothing to
• 11:32
  play for and looks like they've packed it in down the stretch
• 11:34
  here. So that's kind of the angle that
• 11:36
  I'm looking at why Minnesota's getting steamed.
• 11:38
  But other angles like Minnesota here rest advantage.
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  They last played on the 15th, Seattle played on the 16th.
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  Seattle's also playing their third game in five days.
• 11:47
  Minnesota's only playing their second game in five days.
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  So we do have a rest first tired advantage for Minnesota who
• 11:52
  would match a system here rested favorite off a win.
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  So if you are a rested favorite at least two days between your
• 11:59
  last game and your current game this season, those teams are are
• 12:04
  pretty much going to end here on a on a winning note 138 and
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  8063% with a 4% ROI that would match with the Minnesota Wild.
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  Now you also get the offense better offense here.
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  The Wild three goals per game versus 2.6 for the Kraken Wilder
• 12:20
  two and O head to head against Seattle this season and the Wild
• 12:23
  at home 2014 and six. Seattle just 1617 and seven on
• 12:27
  the road. So if we have a rest first tired
• 12:30
  advantage we have kind of a you know which direction of these
• 12:33
  teams trending Seattle down to end the year Minnesota up to end
• 12:36
  the year you want to finish off your season on a high note
• 12:39
  you're at home again you got to you got to play for the goal you
• 12:42
  just got re signed the old man flurry so I'm going to go
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  Minnesota Wild here shop round. I got the Wild at -170.
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  Now over to the NFL, the NFL draft, baby.
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  The NFL is a 24/7 365 type season.
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  We all love sweating the games. What I like what NFL is
• 13:00
  opportunities to bet year round, whether it's awards, whether
• 13:03
  it's win totals, whether it's the draft.
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  And the draft to me is a great money making opportunity.
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  So I've been having a lot of thoughts on the draft.
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  I've been tracking this stuff for quite a while and I don't
• 13:13
  want to bet it too early. I also don't want to wait too
• 13:15
  late. So I figure, hey, one week away
• 13:17
  exactly next Thursday is the draft.
• 13:20
  What can we take advantage of right now thinking that hey you
• 13:23
  know, hopefully these lines will will come in our direction and
• 13:26
  we'll get some closing line value and also get some good
• 13:28
  numbers that haven't moved too much.
• 13:30
  So as it stands right now, I'm going to give you a couple tips.
• 13:33
  One tip that I would give you if you haven't done it yet is go to
• 13:36
  one of your favorite sports books whether it's DraftKings,
• 13:39
  FanDuel, BET, MGM, you know one of the bigger ones and go to
• 13:44
  their NFL tab and go to their draft tab.
• 13:46
  And what I would suggest doing is screenshot.
• 13:48
  You can either just take your phone, hover it over your
• 13:51
  computer. If you're if you pull it up on
• 13:52
  your phone, take some screenshots, but just take a
• 13:55
  bunch of screenshots. Or you can write them down too.
• 13:58
  Of all the current numbers so there are there, there's a ton
• 14:01
  to choose from. So the ones that I like to look
• 14:03
  at are the over under positions like for example, Bonex, 32, 1/2
• 14:09
  the Overs, -200, the Unders Plus 160.
• 14:12
  That would tell you that, hey, he's probably going to go in the
• 14:14
  second round, you know 33 or or or worse.
• 14:17
  But the point being is whether it's draft position, position
• 14:20
  totals head to heads, we're going to get into some other
• 14:24
  markets here. Really every year they get
• 14:25
  bigger and bigger. But whole point being is give
• 14:27
  yourself a reference point because what you want to do is
• 14:30
  take a screenshot of all the current odds today a week out,
• 14:34
  and then track them over the next week and see which
• 14:37
  direction they're leaning. Because you know if a if a
• 14:40
  number is, you know +200, you don't know if that was plus 100
• 14:44
  up to 200 or 300 down to 200. You need a reference point.
• 14:48
  So my first suggestion to you, a week away from the draft,
• 14:50
  screenshot the odds from a big book like DraftKings or FanDuel.
• 14:54
  Now secondly, you got to be able to shop around.
• 14:58
  Obviously there's a lot of sports books fighting for
• 15:00
  everyone's action. They're going to lease
• 15:01
  promotions, take advantage of them.
• 15:03
  But you need to shop around because I'm going to give you a
• 15:05
  couple bets here where you can get way better prices just by
• 15:09
  doing your homework and betting it at the at the book.
• 15:11
  That gives you the best number. So have those reference points,
• 15:14
  Take those screenshots. Lastly, the final mock drafts
• 15:18
  are going to come out. So I think Kiper, Mcshay,
• 15:21
  Jeremiah, the big guys, I want to say maybe Monday, Tuesday,
• 15:24
  the final mock drafts will come out.
• 15:26
  And you got to remember the mock drafts we've been looking at for
• 15:29
  months and months. You know, a lot of them are
• 15:31
  speculation where you're kind of these people are projecting it.
• 15:35
  And again, some are important, some are pretty good.
• 15:37
  Some are people, you know, in their grandma's basement who
• 15:40
  know who know nothing and just give you click bait.
• 15:42
  Something crazy is going to happen.
• 15:43
  They got someone other than cable Kayla Williams going first
• 15:46
  whole point being is the mock draft start to get really good
• 15:49
  the last week or so. So stay tuned for what Kiper
• 15:51
  Mcshea, these guys say and why do they get better?
• 15:54
  Because even though it's kind of lying season and there's a lot
• 15:56
  of smoke out there, you know, a lot of dust starts to settle and
• 16:00
  word leaks out. And these people are really tied
• 16:02
  in these NFL Insiders. They're starting to hear and
• 16:04
  what these teams are going to do.
• 16:06
  So with all that being said, I got a couple bets for you now.
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  The first bet that I'm going to mention and I'll give you a
• 16:12
  reference point here. So like for instance, #1 pick
• 16:15
  Caleb Williams -10,000. Can't bet it.
• 16:17
  It's way too expensive. Caleb Williams has rejected all
• 16:20
  other 3030 visits or the 30 visits whatever to the different
• 16:23
  teams. He's going first to the Chicago
• 16:27
  Bears, but can't bet it. The numbers just way too high.
• 16:29
  Number two, pick Jayden Daniels. He's starting to creep up here.
• 16:33
  Jayden Daniels is now -275 to go second overall.
• 16:37
  And I was, I was reading about this, I don't know a week ago,
• 16:41
  Brian Kelly the coach of LSU in one of I don't know if it was
• 16:44
  Daniels pro day or he said something about basically like
• 16:47
  Washington's going to love Jaden Daniels.
• 16:50
  So he insinuated that Daniels is going to go too to the
• 16:53
  commanders and Daniels is moving up becoming more of a favorite
• 16:56
  275 though kind of expensive for me.
• 16:59
  Drake may, that's important to me because I'm a Patriots fan.
• 17:02
  Do the Patriots draft Drake May. Do they trade down?
• 17:04
  Do they like McCarthy? Drake May is now -170 to be the
• 17:09
  third overall pick. So here's what I'm going to do.
• 17:13
  What I'm going to do is play an exacta.
• 17:15
  Now, this isn't horse racing. Don't don't even get me into
• 17:17
  horse racing. It's hard.
• 17:18
  But basically an exact or an exact combination of what's
• 17:22
  going to happen, 1-2 and three. So if you look at the exact,
• 17:28
  let's see if I can find it here. Yeah, the exact outcome, the
• 17:33
  exact outcome here. We need Cale Williams to go 1,
• 17:36
  Daniels to go 2, and Drake May to go three.
• 17:38
  If that happens, we can get that with an exact payout price of
• 17:42
  -145. So we can involve Williams even
• 17:45
  though he's -10,000. Daniels is moving up and Drake
• 17:49
  May, whether it's the Patriots or whether they trade out and
• 17:51
  someone wants to pick them, Drake May's been there from the
• 17:53
  start to go to go third overall. So that's that's the first bet
• 17:56
  that I placed here, guys, -145, Williams, Daniels in May to go
• 18:01
  1-2 and three. It's got to be that exact result
• 18:04
  and I found that at -145. Now the second bet that I'm
• 18:09
  going to share with you today, well that I'm pretty high on is
• 18:12
  the first defensive player or the first defensive lineman
• 18:17
  slash edge player. Now this is important because
• 18:19
  I'm looking at the same guy. We can get a better number if
• 18:21
  you focus on one specifically. So for the first defensive
• 18:25
  player or first defensive lineman slash slash edge, I'm
• 18:29
  taking Dallas Turner. Dallas Turner is a edge defender
• 18:33
  from Alabama, and what's interesting is for him to be the
• 18:36
  first defensive player selected. He's -135, but for him to be the
• 18:40
  first D lineman or edge to be selected, he's plus 100.
• 18:43
  So I'm going to take that plus 100.
• 18:45
  You know, that's even money right there.
• 18:47
  Plus 100. And I'm going to have Dallas
• 18:49
  Turner hopefully be the first D lineman or edge player selected.
• 18:53
  Now why am I taking Dallas Turner?
• 18:54
  I'm putting a lot of stock into some of these mock drafts.
• 18:56
  Dane Bruegger. There's another one that came
• 18:58
  out the other day from the OR Brewer's The Athletic.
• 19:02
  There's another one, he was Kuiper or Mcshea.
• 19:04
  But anyway, I've seen a lot of Dallas Turner being linked to
• 19:08
  8th overall, the Atlanta Falcons.
• 19:09
  And if you look at Turner here and why this makes sense, the
• 19:14
  Falcons number one, they hired A defensive coach, Rahim Morris.
• 19:17
  So he was defensive minded guy. But they brought in, obviously
• 19:21
  Kirk Cousins. They brought in Mooney, the wide
• 19:22
  receiver from who is it, The Bears they already had on their
• 19:25
  roster? Pitts and and Bijan Robinson and
• 19:30
  Drake London. So their offense looks pretty
• 19:32
  good but their defense. I was reading how their defense
• 19:35
  was actually decent but they had no pressure at all.
• 19:38
  They have good corners but no pressure.
• 19:39
  They had the lowest pressure rate in the NFL last year.
• 19:42
  So I'm seeing a lot of links with with Dallas Turner being
• 19:47
  linked at #8 to the Atlanta Falcons and actually just saw my
• 19:51
  one of my colleagues at V Sin who I respect Maddie humans.
• 19:54
  He had a mock draft come out today.
• 19:55
  He had Dallas Turner 8 to the Falcons.
• 19:57
  So if Turner goes 8 to the Falcons, that means he's not
• 20:00
  only the 1st defensive player selected, but the first edge or
• 20:03
  defensive lineman selected. So depending on your book, see
• 20:07
  what they offer, see what the price is.
• 20:08
  If you want to go first defensive player -135, all the
• 20:11
  power to you. But I found a book offering
• 20:14
  first defensive lineman or edge player, specifically Dallas
• 20:18
  Turner at plus 100. So I'm going Turner, first
• 20:20
  defensive edge player selected at plus 100.
• 20:24
  Next one Brock Bowers. Brock Bowers is incredible.
• 20:27
  Obviously great tight end here in a class that isn't very good.
• 20:31
  And Brock Bowers, I noticed that he's been really shifting here
• 20:35
  with his over under position. So it's over under draft
• 20:39
  position is 12 1/2 and the juice continues to grow on the under
• 20:43
  12 1/2. It was like I want to say -120
• 20:46
  about a week ago, -141 book is at -190.
• 20:50
  But here's the importance of shopping around.
• 20:52
  I found another book that has Brock Bowers under 12 1/2 at
• 20:55
  -140. So under 12 1/2 means he's got
• 20:58
  to be selected one through 12. If he goes 13 or higher, we're
• 21:01
  screwed. So he's got to be 12 or less.
• 21:03
  But I am seeing Brock Bowers connected to The Jets, The Jets
• 21:08
  going at 10th and then the Broncos also connected to the
• 21:11
  Broncos at 12th. So the number one head and
• 21:14
  shoulders best tight end in the crowd he's being linked to a lot
• 21:18
  of these teams you know top ten, top 12 and then the over under
• 21:21
  is 12 1/2 under juiced up. So I'm going to I'm going to
• 21:24
  follow this sharp money this this juice team and I'm going to
• 21:27
  go Brock Bowers tight end out of Georgia to go under 12 1/2 at
• 21:33
  -140 second to last 140. Then I'm going to leave the last
• 21:37
  one in terms of Michael Pennix junior.
• 21:39
  I got to play on Pennix junior but last one is the second
• 21:43
  offensive lineman selected. So this is important because
• 21:47
  it's important to know the market and what's available to
• 21:49
  you. But if you look at the first
• 21:51
  offensive lineman selected, Joe All, you know Joe all is -500.
• 21:55
  Basically now too high to bet, but then go down a little bit.
• 21:59
  Second offensive lineman selected, Currently you have
• 22:03
  Tylesi Fuaga from Oregon State. This is at DraftKings.
• 22:07
  He's plus 150. Fashano's plus 200.
• 22:10
  Latham +400. But if you look at FanDuel,
• 22:14
  Tylesi Fuaga to be the second offensive lineman selected is
• 22:18
  plus 210. So I'm jumping on that plus
• 22:21
  2:10. I'm going Fuaga to be the second
• 22:24
  offensive slime offensive lineman selected.
• 22:26
  Again, first is going to be Joe Alt, but then Fuaga, who's an
• 22:29
  absolute jump just Rd. grader here.
• 22:32
  He's been linked to The Jets at 10.
• 22:34
  He's been linked to that Vikings pick the 11th overall, like if
• 22:37
  they were to trade with the Chargers, and then Chargers come
• 22:40
  down stockpile picks. That makes sense as well.
• 22:45
  And if you look at his competition, no one's that
• 22:48
  close. I mean, Fasanu, Latham, you
• 22:50
  know, they're in the vicinity, but it's really, you know, plus
• 22:54
  money, a little bit of plus money here if you can take
• 22:56
  advantage of Fuaga. And again, I I think the angle
• 22:59
  there is hopefully, you know, the Vikings trade up for
• 23:01
  McCarthy and then the Chargers fall down to 11 and Harbaugh
• 23:04
  likes to build his teams through the offensive line And Fuaga
• 23:08
  66325, he can play tackle or guard.
• 23:11
  Makes a lot of sense here, whether it's The Jets, whether
• 23:13
  it's the Vikings via the OR the the Chargers via the Vikings.
• 23:19
  That makes sense to me. And the numbers kind of backed
• 23:21
  it up. And we look at playing props off
• 23:23
  each other like Fuago's 13 1/2 draft position under -130.
• 23:27
  I think Fasanu is 14 1/2. And I want to say Latham's like
• 23:31
  14 1/2. So they're telling you that
• 23:33
  Fuaga hopefully will be the first one off or the second one
• 23:35
  off the board. But that's my bet.
• 23:37
  I'm going with Tylesi Fuaga, the second offensive lineman
• 23:41
  selected. I got that at plus 210 at
• 23:44
  FanDuel. And then last but not least,
• 23:47
  quarterbacks. Now, did anyone jump on the over
• 23:50
  4 1/2 quarterbacks when we tweeted about it?
• 23:52
  I want to say I got that at like -170.
• 23:54
  It's now up to -200. Obviously we have top four,
• 23:58
  which may go top four. Who knows.
• 24:00
  McCarthy's kind of a wild card, but Caleb Williams, Daniels, May
• 24:03
  McCarthy. And now you need one more to
• 24:05
  cash it. I think that one more to cash
• 24:07
  it. The over 4 1/2 is Michael Pennix
• 24:09
  Junior. Now I'm going to play Michael
• 24:11
  Penix Junior in a specific way. I'm going to go Penix Junior
• 24:14
  basically to be a first round pick under 32 1/2.
• 24:18
  Now if you look at Michael Pennix Junior, a couple things
• 24:20
  going on here. One, he's starting to shoot up a
• 24:23
  lot of mock draft boards. You're hearing a lot about the
• 24:26
  the Raiders being interested and Michael Pennix Junior, the
• 24:29
  Patriots who obviously I'm I'm a Boston guy.
• 24:31
  That's my team. I'll never get the Brady golden
• 24:34
  years ever again but maybe we'll be competitive one day.
• 24:37
  But anyway, the the Patriots just had a late visit with
• 24:40
  Michael Pennix Junior, and then today you heard the de facto GM,
• 24:45
  even though it doesn't have the title, Elliot Wolf.
• 24:46
  He said we're open for business with the third overall pick.
• 24:49
  So if the Patriots trade down and they just brought in Michael
• 24:54
  Pennix junior late, does that mean that they're going to trade
• 24:57
  down, get multiple picks and then grab Pennix, you know,
• 24:59
  somewhere in the first round? That makes a lot of sense to me.
• 25:02
  Pennix, you know, obviously the question is, he's a little bit
• 25:04
  older. He's got bad knees, he's had
• 25:06
  injuries. But this is a guy that, you
• 25:08
  know, if it wasn't really the age of the injuries, I mean this
• 25:10
  guy would be definitely a first round pick.
• 25:13
  So I feel like there's this late steam coming in on Michael
• 25:15
  Pennix Junior. And I did notice that the steam
• 25:18
  is changing or the juice is changing.
• 25:21
  I should say Michael Pennix Junior, his draft position, 32
• 25:23
  1/2, it was over -150 about a week ago.
• 25:27
  Now it's under -130. And I was able to shop around
• 25:30
  and find a Pennix Junior under 32 1/2 at -114.
• 25:35
  So again, track these odds, pay attention to mock drafts, but
• 25:39
  that's what I'm riding with. I'm riding with an exacta.
• 25:42
  Williams Daniels in May to go 1-2 and three at -145.
• 25:46
  Dallas Turner. First defensive player or sorry,
• 25:49
  First defence, defensive end or edge player at plus 100.
• 25:53
  Brock Bowers under 12 1/2 Fuaga second offensive lineman
• 25:57
  selected and Michael Pennix under 32 1/2.
• 26:00
  That's what I'm rolling with with five.
• 26:01
  Count them five right in the palm of your hand. 5 fingers or
• 26:06
  five. Four fingers and a thumb.
• 26:07
  They're all fingers. Anyway. 5 bets for you in the
• 26:09
  NFL draft. That's what I'm rocking with now
• 26:11
  and I expect to add some more between now and in a week from
• 26:15
  today. Hopefully that's a good starting
• 26:16
  point for us. So that about does it.
• 26:19
  Another pod in the books here guys, as we are now down with 26
• 26:23
  podcasts and we're able to finally talk some NFL draft,
• 26:25
  which I had a lot of fun with. But I also want to mention
• 26:28
  something to you about a couple things here, so housekeeping and
• 26:31
  then I got to tell you about rhythm.
• 26:33
  So number one, in terms of housekeeping, If you enjoy this
• 26:37
  pod, if this pod has helped you to cash some bets, if you feel
• 26:40
  like you're getting sharper here, you're looking at line
• 26:42
  movement, system, matches, betting percentages, You are
• 26:46
  flat betting, you're not parlaying you're you.
• 26:48
  And you look forward to and enjoy these breakdowns each day.
• 26:51
  I wish they all won. Again, betting's hard.
• 26:53
  It's just realistically, it's not going to happen.
• 26:55
  But if you feel like you have an edge and you enjoy the
• 26:58
  breakdowns and I have a couple questions or a couple of things
• 27:01
  I need to ask. If you won, can you give this
• 27:03
  podcast five stars, Give it five stars on Amazon or sorry, five
• 27:07
  stars on Spotify or iTunes. That would really go a long way
• 27:10
  to kind of making a shoot up the the the charts here.
• 27:14
  And then secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns, you enjoy this
• 27:18
  kind of approach to sports betting, data-driven betting,
• 27:21
  looking at line movement, following the market like Wall
• 27:23
  Street traders follow the stock market and guess what?
• 27:26
  Make my day. Let me know you appreciate the
• 27:28
  hard work that I put in each day as well as learning for yourself
• 27:31
  to become a sharper better. But you can do that by buying my
• 27:34
  book. Go to Amazon.com.
• 27:36
  Type in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 27:38
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 27:40
  Would mean the world to me. Guys got everything I've learned
• 27:42
  in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
• 27:45
  they move, How to read line movement, How to locate sharp
• 27:47
  action, How to place a bet in person or online.
• 27:49
  How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
• 27:52
  management plan. It's all included in the
• 27:53
  Everything Guide to sports betting.
• 27:54
  So go buy a copy for you or for a buddy.
• 27:57
  Because again, we all need to tell that friend of ours to stop
• 27:59
  parlaying and go right to the Bankroll management chapter in
• 28:02
  the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 28:04
  Lastly, have you heard about rhythm?
• 28:07
  You heard about rhythm. You better have heard about them
• 28:08
  last night as as they were spot on right on the number there
• 28:12
  with Bogdan Bogdanovich coming through for the team with the
• 28:15
  over 16 half points. But Rhythm is the ultimate AI
• 28:19
  sports betting platform giving you data, back picks and props.
• 28:22
  Rhythm powers his podcast. I am a proud, proud partner with
• 28:25
  Rhythm and rhythm. Number one.
• 28:27
  I want you to take advantage of rhythm so you can start cashing
• 28:30
  some bets. All you got to do is go to my
• 28:32
  Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
• 28:34
  Click the pinned tweet at the top of my page.
• 28:37
  There's going to be a custom Rhythm link sign up.
• 28:39
  Then you can be a Rhythm user. Get a free seven day trial.
• 28:43
  But also Rhythm just unveiled the Golf as a new sport and they
• 28:47
  had a great opening weekend there with Scotty Scheffler and
• 28:50
  the Masters. But now there's a new rhythm
• 28:53
  thing called Rhythm AI Caddy. So AI Caddy is the ultimate
• 28:57
  companion for dissecting every hole and unlocking the most
• 29:00
  promising live betting opportunities.
• 29:02
  And now it's available for the RBC Heritage and Corrales Punta
• 29:05
  Cana tournaments. So if you're a golf guy or or
• 29:08
  gal or you want to just use rhythm for the NBA playoffs,
• 29:11
  whatever the case may be, sign up.
• 29:13
  Give it a shot. I think it's going to help you
• 29:15
  to catch some bets so golf betters go enjoy rhythm and sign
• 29:18
  up via that tweet in my in my on my Twitter page at Josh under
• 29:22
  score Insights. Make sure you use that custom
• 29:24
  link That about does everyone another pod here in the books.
• 29:27
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 29:30
  Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 29:33
  Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston.
• 29:35
  Our Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of
• 29:38
  the woods in Massachusetts are out in the the desert.
• 29:41
  Sweat and sharp can train plays. Getting the lowest use possible
• 29:43
  at the South Point or jumping in the pool at Stadium Swim.
• 29:46
  Getting a victory burger at the end of the night at circa,
• 29:48
  wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
• 29:50
  It's only 1 ticket. You're going to show me from
• 29:52
  last night. Bogdanovich, baby, our boy
• 29:55
  Bogdan over 16 1/2 points. Thank you for the hat tip to
• 29:59
  Rhythm right there. You can also show me a Mariners
• 30:01
  ticket and Orioles ticket. A Braves ticket, if you played
• 30:03
  that earlier. Guess what?
• 30:04
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 30:06
  We're going to post about the book.
• 30:07
  So sharp. Contrarian plays all night long.
• 30:10
  So in parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian.
• 30:12
  Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
• 30:14
  the house. Always be with the smart money.
• 30:16
  Never against the well, smart money won every time.
• 30:18
  Of course not betting is hard. You always got to keep that
• 30:21
  forest amongst the trees. Marathon.
• 30:23
  Not a Sprint mentality at the at the forefront.
• 30:26
  Grinding, always grinding. And if we can find that sweet
• 30:28
  spot, find the games that fit our model against the public
• 30:31
  with the house, with the pros. Flat bet.
• 30:33
  Avoid parlays. Get some closing line value.
• 30:35
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
• 30:37
  long term. So enjoy the sweats, everyone.
• 30:40
  We're now just a week away from the NFL draft.
• 30:42
  How'd you like today's pod? Wet your whistle with a couple
• 30:44
  draft bets. I love betting the draft.
• 30:46
  Let's see what my Patriots do. Take Drake may trade down.
• 30:50
  I've been talking about it non-stop in Boston.
• 30:52
  Sports talk radio and media. I'm excited to see what they do,
• 30:56
  but let's cash them bets, guys. Enjoy the sweats.
• 30:58
  Have a great Thursday night. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 31:00
  a big Friday for episode 27 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 31:04
  Betting podcast. Good luck.