Latest / Financial Survival Network / Mastering Market Cycles: Insights with Dr. Vojcic #6006

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Mastering Market Cycles: Insights with Dr. Vojcic #6006 · Financial Survival Network

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Using different most likely counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis
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different technical indicators like cottage, sigh and macdee, etc. So everything has
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to fit together because then it increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously.
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You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information
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And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
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I'm your host, Terry Lutz. We are on location in Thailand, so
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forgive the less than stellar sound quality, although it still sounds pretty good the
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shows I did over the past few days. I don't have my special microphone
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and all my processing and everything else like that, but nonetheless it still sounds
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pretty darn good. This computer, this new Mac, really does a great
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job. Hey got somebody for you. I've been reading his newsletter for a
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while. I think you definitely want to check him out. He's a PhD.
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He was an academic, but more importantly, he's had experience in the
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real world as well as the academic world. And his name is doctor browna
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voit Chich and the name of the newsletter is Bravo Cycles. There'll be a
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link in the show notes so that you can sign up for it. If
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you've got a question for him, please send me an email kl at carrie
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let dot com. Hey, so Brandan, it's great to have you on
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the show. And you know, you kind of like a technical guy.
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You're looking at cycles, You're looking at chart formations, things like that.
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What is your philosophy of making money in the market. Well, my philosophy
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is really looking at these very advanced technical analysis techniques, and I use a
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multi pronged approach. I looked at time cycles to see where the cycle speaks
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and pros expected. Then I also look at cycles price projections. I really
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want to see that time and price fit together as entry or exit points.
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And I further verified that by using Elliot wait theory analysis using different most likely
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counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis, different technical indicators
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like CARRICI and macde etc. So everything has to fit together because then it
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increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously. All right, So invention
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cycles and a number of people follow cycles out there, and I follow them
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myself. I'm a big believer in them. But the hardest part is finding
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when the cycle begins and when it ends. Sometimes you don't know the cycle
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happened until after it's over. Right. Well, it's possible to estimate cycles
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with certain accuracy. You could never do them perfectly for various reasons. One
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reason is that they constantly vary over time. You know the period of the
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cycle, and often amplitude vary over time, perhaps influenced by larger or longer
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cycles from nature or whatever. So Also, oftentimes cycles are not synchronous.
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In other words, cycles of different periods are not synchrenous sometimes and death makes
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it harder to estimate what's going on. I use multiple cycle methods, going
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from traditional ones like psychoanalysis that are I'm sure you're familiar with and centered moving
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averages, but I have developed a very sophisticated method based on the state of
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the art and signal processing, so called time frequency analysis using wavelets, and
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there I am able to estimate and detect multiple cycles and then find superposition of
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them that gives me an estimate of their peaks and crows occur. But obviously
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you always have to provide some tolerance because market news could affect especially some short
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cycles, you know, or some big fundamental news, et cetera. So
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what are some cycles that you follow regularly in your work? I usually follow
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whatever is detected, but what I detect is usually cycles like ten twenty day,
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forty day, eighty day, twenty weeks, forty weeks up to up
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to eighteen months two year cycles. These are meaningful for trading and investing,
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whether on multi week or multi month basis. But of course there are much
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longer cycles like eighteen point six year cycle or transport cycle you know, and
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other even longer one. And it's an interesting question because this eighteen point six
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year cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five or early twenty six,
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and also the sunspot cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five, so
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stock market usually peaks coincidentally with the sunspot cycle, or actually a few months
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earlier. So that suggests we could expect some major peak in late twenty five
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or early twenty six. Interesting. I know, there's like an eight week
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cycle for gold. I've heard of a one hundred year war cycle eighteen point
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six year for real estate, right real estate every eighteenth rect yours, and
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that one is uncannily accurate the real estate cycle, isn't it. I mean,
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you look good, right, it's pretty good. Variations are maybe I
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speaking from memory of variations or maybe several months historically, but it today and
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you know, even a longer a qundred TIV cycle. It's also very good.
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It's a fifty some year cycle, but unfortunately we have records only for
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six of them, but very very accurtves a couple of years. Yeah,
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so one hundred years from nineteen twenty nine brings us to twenty twenty nine,
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and we could very well see an economic collapse. I mean, honestly,
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my opinion is just looking at the news, we've seen our economic collapse.
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So we're in the midst of it. And you know, it's so interesting
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though, rather the cycles. So much of our life is dictated by cycles,
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circadian rhythms, sleep cycles, birth, death, and you know,
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midlife, old age, and yet so many of you out there just deny
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the existence or are unaware that the cycles are even happening. Yeah, many
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people are loved by the way. I take a look at my website.
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I have a very nice presentation about all the review of these cycles, especially
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long it ones. And since you mentioned twenty nine, which is one hundred
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years from nineteen twenty nine stock market crash, in that presentations you will find
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that I found several cycles that converge from twenty nine to early thirty thirty to
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thirty three, So that could be a major major cycle law in the stock
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markets. All right, And we've got a link in the show notes to
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brno's website and newsletter. It's Bravo Cycles and just click it. It'll take
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you right through to it. And so looking ahead here in the short term,
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in the next eighteen months, basically you said this market peaks with the
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sun cycles. Sunspot cycles. I've seen that theory before and something about human
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nature were unpredictable, but when it comes to cycles, we come a lot
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more predictable. So you think the market's going to continue on its rampage until
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twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, or we're not going to see a
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collapse. So what's your research telling you? Well, I see market down
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this year. As a matter of fact, if you were reading my newsletters,
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you probably noticed that I couldn't find excuses for market looking up. I
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was supporting the last few months in October. But right now multiple market indexes
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are in the peak area, and we may have seen the top top,
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you know, yesterday, So what's happening. We should expect a cycle trough
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in March April, then bounce into summer, and then another swing down into
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late twenty four or early twenty five, probably early twenty five, because there
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are more indexes that show cycled trough in early twenty five, and then we
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should have very strong twenty five, you know, very strong rebound. Whether
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that rebound is gonna take us to new highs or not, I don't know.
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It's too early to say because time cycles don't tell you that. They
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tell you turning points. But it's gonna be strong. Twenty five is going
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to be a strong year, and then after that it's going to be down
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in twenty seven, strong twenty eight, and then down into early twenty thirties.
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Yeah, hard to believe. We're talking about the twenty thirties here,
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you know, in around a while, and the years just happen to go
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by like that. I mean, It's kind kind of remarkable, like that
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these cycles are so prevalent and they're so important, and yet they're so ignored,
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although the government doesn't ignore. After the Great Depression, the financial collapse
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of nineteen twenty nine, the government funded this Institute for the research of the
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economic cycles, and a lot of solid research came out of there, and
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guys like Elliott Wave, I don't know if you know, doctor Charles Nenner,
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Martin Armstrong, all of these guys are like that data. Yeah,
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so what about the war cycle? Do you track a war cycle? No?
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I just read you know. Look, look I'm strong just saying about
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them, and there are a few other guys that follow war cycles, but
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I don't. Sorry, and you couldn't follow everything. These are cycles.
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So the most important cycles not just for your economic wellbeing, but for your
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health as well. What are the most important cycles that you should be following.
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Well, I haven't explored the relationship to help between cycles and help,
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but you know, these planetary cycles are starting from Sun's cycle and Jupiter and
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Sutter. They are as longer term cycles. They are most important for our
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for influence on Earth and Earth's electromagnetic field. How that affects our help.
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I have no idea, but these are the most important cycles for our life
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of course, very pity, and there is also influence. But they are
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much shorter, much shorter cycles. Yeah, so interesting, So can you
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share with us some of your well some of the short term cycles, like
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I know gold has an eight week cycle at least I've already mentioned before.
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You follow the precious metals at all, I do. I do follow precious
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metals and publish you know, gold cycles, you know, every month or
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so. Right now gold is in a short cycle down turn, but still
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has some potential this into summer. But it started actually a long term cycle
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I think plast year and now speaking from memory, I think eight year cycle
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or four year cycle. I could say it one hundred percent accuracy. But
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speaking about commodities, I think the national gas is very interesting because it's going
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to start right now about now two years very strong cycle. And it's also
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incidentally it's also a positive seasonality for cornational gas. Plus it hit my all
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my cycle targets for down. So normally when you don't have more down targets,
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it should turn up. And whether it's today or within a month,
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but it's going to go up, and gold is also going to go up
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next few months after this consolidation. It's in a temporary downturn, but I
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don't remember exactly the length of the cycle. Yeah, and you know it
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so interesting natural gas follows that cycle very closely, more than just about any
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other commodity. And yet the traders call trading natural gas the widow maker.
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That's correct, that's said, but but very closely adheres to the cycles.
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Hey what about food? Uh you know they've been down wheat and corn and
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all that good stuff. I just tweeted about. Yeah, sorry, yeah,
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yeah, tell us your lady. I just I just tweeted last night.
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And corn I think it's hitting the cycle, all major cycle law and
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it's gonna be in a two years up face and uh weat two uh two
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is wat is still bottoming? But you know, any any week from now
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and the end of March, it should bottom and should have one plus year
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very strong cycle. I mean, how cycle one plus year two year cycle
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over all? Yeah. Interesting. So when you started your cycle research,
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was there any cycle that you uncovered or found evidence of that really surprised you.
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Well, I started this long time ago, you know, when I
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was doing my master's thesis that was like almost forty years ago. Sounds suppose
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sundate ourselves, let's not give our cycles away. So I was actually already
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then surprised how that sunspot cycle is connected with different cycles on Earth electromagnetic cycles.
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It really affects us a lot. But searching these financial market cycles,
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I couldn't say that I discovered many new ones. I found one point seventy
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five years that seems nobody noticed before, but otherwise I just verified not other
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people found out. And what was a little bit surprising to me that there
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are several of these cycles that are very significant and prominent in financial markets that
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are not harmonically related. Like, for example, there is a four year
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cycle, and then seven year cycle very prominent, but it's not harmonic to
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almost any other cycle. There is twenty eight year cycle, so but people
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don't notice it very much, and then eleven year cycle is not it's not
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pharmonic with seven or four. So all the original cycle theories from Dewey and
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and uh Hurst and the other guys, where they're all cycles are harmonics factor
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of two or factor of three. I found that's not the case, and
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I usually find two sets of cycles that are harmonics but not mutually with each
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other, and then some single players like eleven year. Yeah, you would
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think like all the agricultural commodities, their cycles would be harmonic, but yet
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they're not. They're independent, right, Like cotton could be moving one way
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and orn and wheat could be moving another. Even corn and wheat can be
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moving opposite ways, and you would think they'd be part of the same cycle.
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That's that's a little bit surprising because most of these commodities should be should
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be tied to the seven year cycle. If you remember that seven year cycle
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was prominent in Jewish culture but also in Indian old Indian culture. You know,
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Vedas talked about seven year cycle, that was agricultural cycle. Every seven
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years, there was a terrible job that, you know, nothing, nothing
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worked. But people also almost forgot about because agriculture is not the main part
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of our society anymore, so people forgot about that cycle and the death cycle.
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Every seven years they'd have in jubilee and the slaves their deaths would be
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forgiven, and then you'd have the grand cycle, the forty nine year Grand
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Jubilee and exact maybe we really haven't gotten away from that. I mean,
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when you look at the world's problems and the debt, there's going to have
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to be a jubilee at some point. It's unsustainable at the current rate,
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isn't it. Yeah, well, that's what some people are talking about,
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and I don't know about that. As you achieved it progress in the more
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developed parts of the world, birth rates are not so great, so you
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know, population is going down. So as the rest of the world develops,
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that probably will be solved by itself. Yeah, I guess so.
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Well. I think you're right. But the government's out of control spending and
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debt. It's not just the United States, although we're the leader of it,
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it's virtually every country in the world. And I think that cycle is
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coming to an end as well. Huh, I definitely think so. And
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the superpower cycle over the years, you know, that runs its course as
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well. Right, that's true. That's Dhalia was actually talking about a lot
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about superpower cycle. He has a look, I don't know if you've seen
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it. Yeah, I've seen it. I think, yeah, right,
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sure, you got a guy like him, You really have to pay attention
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when he says something, so hey, it's bravo cycles. The links in
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the show notes, Brown, I really appreciate you coming on sharing your wisdom.
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I always like to see people who've been doing these things for decades because
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you have a body of work that lends more credibility and that you're ready to
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adjust theories, cycles, intervals where necessary. I think that's crucial. If
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you got a question for doctor Brewna or myself, just shoot me an email
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k L at Kerrie Leuts dot com. While you're at the site the show
22:56
notes on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please sign up for your free newsletter.
23:02
Hey ron It, it's been a real pleasure. We're definitely going to
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have you back on pleasure of his all mine. Thanks for listening to Carrie
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Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
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go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,