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What Happened to Home-Field Advantage? · NFL explained.

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Speaker 1: and five G content optimization. Last season, due to the
1:08
Speaker 1: COVID pandemic, the NFL sadly placed to mostly empty stadiums
1:13
Speaker 1: and of course the occasional cardboard cutoffs. So what did
1:18
Speaker 1: that do to home field advantage. Interestingly enough, it was
1:22
Speaker 1: the first season in NFL history that saw home teams
1:26
Speaker 1: with a losing record granted by just one game, but
1:30
Speaker 1: still one hundred and twenty seven wins, one hundred and
1:33
Speaker 1: twenty eight losses and one tie. And to such agree
1:36
Speaker 1: it kind of makes sense, right with no twelve man bills,
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Speaker 1: Mafia or the dog pounds squeezing every last ounce of
1:42
Speaker 1: juice out of the home team wears the advantage. It
1:45
Speaker 1: turns out that this year, with fans back in the stands,
1:50
Speaker 1: we've also seen the second lowest home win percentage in
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Speaker 1: league history. Through sixteen weeks, it's sitting at exactly fifty
1:58
Speaker 1: point six percent. In fact, the last three seasons have
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Speaker 1: seen three of the four lowest home team win percentages
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Speaker 1: since Night ten seventy. But now even in two thousand nineteen,
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Speaker 1: road teams had a higher point per game average than
2:13
Speaker 1: home teams for the first time since the NFL merger.
2:17
Speaker 1: The last four seasons have been the highest scoring seasons
2:21
Speaker 1: for road teams since the merger. Did you know what
2:25
Speaker 1: that means? If anyone goes back to one of our
2:27
Speaker 1: previous episodes that defense wins championships? In that question, it's
2:31
Speaker 1: clearly all about the offense. But as pertains to this
2:35
Speaker 1: particular episode, I actually don't even know if I totally
2:39
Speaker 1: buy some of the numbers, which once again is sort
2:41
Speaker 1: of crazy for me to say, because I think about
2:44
Speaker 1: Fireman ed, I think about the terrible towels that are
2:46
Speaker 1: always kind of swirling in your neck of the woods
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Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, like that has to have some sort of impact.
2:53
Speaker 1: But as we dig through some of the numbers, I
2:55
Speaker 1: don't know if the answer is totally yes to that well,
2:57
Speaker 1: and there may be some teams, Mike, that are skewing
3:00
Speaker 1: the numbers. But see, that's why it's so important that
3:03
Speaker 1: here on NFL Explained we get to the bottom of
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Speaker 1: why some might have a home field advantage and if
3:08
Speaker 1: this advantage might be fading or not. I'm a d
3:13
Speaker 1: d KI kapella, joined as always by my buddy Mike. Yeah,
3:17
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to this one. I'm wondering if the
3:20
Speaker 1: debate is going to rage because I would imagine the
3:23
Speaker 1: two of us are probably on the same side of this.
3:25
Speaker 1: That home field advantage is meaningful. Like I think about
3:28
Speaker 1: it from a Vegas perspective, I think about it from
3:31
Speaker 1: just Win percentages and typically in my mind, all the
3:34
Speaker 1: players and coaches that I've ever talked to, Hey, winning
3:36
Speaker 1: on the road is not an easy thing. Well, let
3:39
Speaker 1: me tell you, I am going to come at this
3:41
Speaker 1: like a real reporter with an open mind. Let's see
3:45
Speaker 1: where the numbers and the anecdotes and the history takes us.
3:49
Speaker 1: We're going to challenge some long held beliefs on the
3:52
Speaker 1: topic of home field advantage. Of course, we'll see what
3:54
Speaker 1: matters what doesn't. We'll find out why there might actually be, Mike,
3:58
Speaker 1: some medical science behind the importance of being at home.
4:03
Speaker 1: Love the science angle behind all of a stufs, But actually,
4:06
Speaker 1: let's take a look at one big piece that fuels
4:09
Speaker 1: the public perception of home field advantage. And I made
4:12
Speaker 1: reference to it, and it's the betting aspect. For years,
4:15
Speaker 1: sports books felt that simply playing on your home field
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Speaker 1: would add about a two to three point bump in
4:20
Speaker 1: the spread. And just to explain for people who aren't
4:22
Speaker 1: necessarily deep diving into the betting world just yet, or
4:26
Speaker 1: maybe they're just playing fantasy, the whole point is a
4:29
Speaker 1: team that may have been a three point favorite on
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Speaker 1: the road would actually go up to a six point
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Speaker 1: favorite at home, and a team that was a two
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Speaker 1: point underdog on the road would become a slight favorite
4:41
Speaker 1: at home. Now, for some sports books, they still hold
4:43
Speaker 1: fast that that two to three point rule. But in
4:47
Speaker 1: with no crowds and just those cardboard cutouts that a
4:49
Speaker 1: DD you love so much, Vegas saw its lowest advantage
4:53
Speaker 1: ever for home teams at one point zero six per game.
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Speaker 1: Now most agree that that advantage is a little kind
5:00
Speaker 1: of on the downside. Here, it seems like from a
5:03
Speaker 1: Vegas perspective, a DD that two to three point number
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Speaker 1: is a little bit more in question nowadays. Well, and
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Speaker 1: it's true because the average home win percentage from nineteen
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Speaker 1: seventy to nine, Mike was fifty seven point nine percent,
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Speaker 1: but since two thousand it's only fifty six point three percent.
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Speaker 1: Will certainly take some guesses as to why teams aren't
5:22
Speaker 1: as dominant at home right now as they used to be,
5:25
Speaker 1: But home field advantage still does exist, even if it's
5:29
Speaker 1: declining or shrinking. So let's first start by looking at
5:33
Speaker 1: some of the reasons why it exists. Obvious number one travel, Say,
5:38
Speaker 1: for instance, Mike, when a West Coast team plays on
5:41
Speaker 1: the East Coast in prime time, maybe their bodies are
5:46
Speaker 1: at their most efficient from between four thirty to seven
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Speaker 1: thirty Eastern, So that's a sweet spot for West Coast
5:53
Speaker 1: teams in prime time, whereas maybe the body clock of
5:56
Speaker 1: a player on the East Coast has already started to
5:59
Speaker 1: shut down. On the converse, the West Coast team going
6:03
Speaker 1: to play at one pm. On the East Coast, well
6:05
Speaker 1: it's ten am. That's the time when you're supposed to
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Speaker 1: be eating your waffles, right. So since two thousand West
6:11
Speaker 1: Coast teams are indeed thirty and nineteen in home prime
6:15
Speaker 1: time games, East Coast teams are just eleven and eighteen
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Speaker 1: versus their Pacific time zone counterparts over that same span.
6:23
Speaker 1: It makes sense. Add because generally speaking, that four thirty
6:27
Speaker 1: to seven thirty Eastern time, like, I would understand why
6:30
Speaker 1: players would thrive in some of those moments. But if
6:32
Speaker 1: I asked you, are you a morning person or a
6:34
Speaker 1: night owl? Like, everyone is a little different, but the
6:36
Speaker 1: numbers do bear out, I guess generally speaking, that does
6:39
Speaker 1: make sense. And I mean, look, Mike, every single player
6:42
Speaker 1: I've ever spoken to says that he hates playing nighttime
6:44
Speaker 1: games because it's just the idea of having to wait
6:47
Speaker 1: all day whereas the one o'clock your body is in
6:50
Speaker 1: a really good routine. This is when I wake up,
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Speaker 1: this is when I eat, this is when I do
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Speaker 1: what I do as opposed to sitting around and waiting.
6:56
Speaker 1: And as a reporter, I don't really like those primetime
6:58
Speaker 1: games either. Let's just get it on. Yeah, I don't
7:00
Speaker 1: know if we're going to get to it in this episode,
7:02
Speaker 1: but can you imagine if there was a way to
7:04
Speaker 1: measure if it's a primetime game and they're just waiting around,
7:08
Speaker 1: and what that actual element does for production later in
7:12
Speaker 1: the day, Because clearly I've had those same conversations with
7:15
Speaker 1: players that they don't like playing late. So it's just
7:17
Speaker 1: one of those other looming factors. But crowd noise, obviously
7:21
Speaker 1: is another thing that I think people always refer to.
7:23
Speaker 1: You know, Pacific West Coast teams, for example, there's one
7:27
Speaker 1: in particular that's known for having that earth shattering noise
7:30
Speaker 1: because of its fans. But how much does that noise
7:32
Speaker 1: and what the fans are doing actually matter? Not surprising here,
7:36
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and the Chiefs, the two loudest stadiums in
7:39
Speaker 1: the NFL, both win significantly more games at home than
7:43
Speaker 1: on the road. In team history, Casey's winning percentage is
7:46
Speaker 1: nearly seventeen percent higher at home than on the road,
7:49
Speaker 1: while Seattle's home versus away winning percentage eighteen points six
7:53
Speaker 1: percent greater. That's wild to me. The three teams with
7:56
Speaker 1: the least influential home field advantage been the Panthers, the Giants,
8:01
Speaker 1: a DV I know you, and I are like what,
8:03
Speaker 1: and surprisingly, how about this Saints. All three see less
8:07
Speaker 1: than a ten percent bump in terms of better winning
8:10
Speaker 1: percentage on their home turf. Once again, the number staggering
8:14
Speaker 1: to me. The Saints obviously the big surprise, just considering
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Speaker 1: the success that they've had, the fact that they're playing
8:19
Speaker 1: also in the Dome, you would think some of that
8:21
Speaker 1: stuff would actually help. Well, you know, Mike, it's so
8:23
Speaker 1: interesting that you say that, because I think a lot
8:25
Speaker 1: of this really has to do with trends and how
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Speaker 1: good your team is. And so when you look at
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Speaker 1: who really is actually the best right now entering this
8:35
Speaker 1: season in terms of a differential between a home win
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Speaker 1: percentage and a road win percentage, Number one is the Ravens.
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Speaker 1: They went at home scent of the time they went
8:45
Speaker 1: on the road forty three point five percent of the time.
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Speaker 1: But the Ravens have been a really good competitive team
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Speaker 1: for a long time, and so those are both good numbers. Essentially.
8:55
Speaker 1: Number two is the Broncos that have a twenty point
8:57
Speaker 1: three percent differential. Well, everybody who plays in Denver, and
9:01
Speaker 1: you and I have talked about this on previous episodes
9:03
Speaker 1: talks about how difficult the AULTO two could be. But
9:06
Speaker 1: then you look at number three, that's the Bengals that
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Speaker 1: have a nearly twenty percent differential. Well, on the at
9:11
Speaker 1: home they only win fifty four percent of the time
9:13
Speaker 1: and on the road they win thirty four percent at
9:15
Speaker 1: the time. So some of it, again is those numbers
9:18
Speaker 1: are a little bit closer together. You see the Steelers
9:22
Speaker 1: in the top half, well, the Steelers have been a
9:25
Speaker 1: good team. You see the Packers in the top half, Well,
9:27
Speaker 1: the Packers have been a really good team. You go
9:29
Speaker 1: to the bottom of the list, well, the Jets, they
9:32
Speaker 1: haven't been particularly good. The Panthers, they've struggled a bit
9:35
Speaker 1: as of late. The Browns, sure they have as well.
9:37
Speaker 1: So I can't really tell if a big differential is
9:42
Speaker 1: a great statement or not, because in theory, you don't
9:45
Speaker 1: want a huge differential. You want a team that's really consistent,
9:48
Speaker 1: right Mike, Like you say, this is a good team,
9:50
Speaker 1: it has the chance to win on the road to
9:52
Speaker 1: some great success. But then you look at teams that
9:56
Speaker 1: win at home more than any place else. I mean
10:00
Speaker 1: the Ravens number. Forget their differential, the fact that the
10:03
Speaker 1: Ravens win at home sixty sent of the time. I'll
10:06
Speaker 1: tell you I spend a ton of time in Baltimore.
10:09
Speaker 1: There are great, great, great fans there, but there's also
10:12
Speaker 1: great food in that stadium, and I think there's something
10:15
Speaker 1: to be said for familiar confines. Well, I think on
10:18
Speaker 1: top of that, like you mentioned Baltimore, and you're right,
10:20
Speaker 1: generally speaking, you just want to win games, whether it's
10:24
Speaker 1: home or away. I do think once again, from a
10:26
Speaker 1: psychological effect, as you start thinking about matchups and opponents.
10:30
Speaker 1: We do this all the time on NFL Network, right
10:32
Speaker 1: like or even just as a fan, you do the
10:34
Speaker 1: win lost thing as you look at a team schedule,
10:36
Speaker 1: and when a team is playing at home and you
10:37
Speaker 1: know there's such a juggernaut like the Ravens, you tend
10:40
Speaker 1: to give them the W before they play that game
10:42
Speaker 1: versus the L. So, once again, a little bit of
10:44
Speaker 1: a factor there, and I think one of the other
10:45
Speaker 1: teams each brought up there, and you mentioned Green Bay
10:49
Speaker 1: leads to another aspect, and indeed it sounds like you
10:51
Speaker 1: want to say something else. Well, I was just gonna
10:53
Speaker 1: go back, Mike to the Ravens. One other point that
10:56
Speaker 1: actually I can't even take credit for this is our
10:58
Speaker 1: fabulous producer Zach mentioned it. The Ravens historically forever are
11:01
Speaker 1: known for what how good their defense is. And so
11:05
Speaker 1: when you were talking earlier about crowd noise, like at
11:07
Speaker 1: a place like Seattle or an Arrowhead stadium, or certainly
11:10
Speaker 1: in Baltimore, the noise helps the home defense because the
11:14
Speaker 1: noise forces the offense to have communication issues, perhaps have
11:18
Speaker 1: to go to a silent count, all of those things.
11:20
Speaker 1: If you historically have a great defense, then that home
11:24
Speaker 1: field noise has to certainly help you. Let me think
11:27
Speaker 1: about it. It's like in Hines Field when they play renegade,
11:29
Speaker 1: they don't play that when the offense is on the field.
11:31
Speaker 1: They play that when the defenses on the field. Players
11:33
Speaker 1: are motioning for noise, not when the offense is on
11:35
Speaker 1: the field, but when the defense is on the field,
11:37
Speaker 1: and when you already have a dominant defense. It sort
11:39
Speaker 1: of plays into this idea of the crowd noise helping
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13:11
Speaker 1: Welcome back to NFL explaining Mike yam Ataddi kinkawaala with you,
13:14
Speaker 1: and we've started to piece together the reasons why teams
13:17
Speaker 1: might see a home field advantage. Crowd noise one factor.
13:21
Speaker 1: I think there's another one that people automatically just enjoy
13:25
Speaker 1: watching when they're at home. There's nothing cooler than you know,
13:28
Speaker 1: players in cold weather you see sort of like the
13:30
Speaker 1: smoke and the steam coming off of their heads and
13:33
Speaker 1: their helmets as soon as they take them off. For
13:35
Speaker 1: guys that are just bundled up, and you know, when
13:36
Speaker 1: there's the snow on the field, I'm not gonna lie.
13:38
Speaker 1: Sometimes I get a little more entertained, a little more
13:40
Speaker 1: juice from that perspective. As someone who's been on the
13:43
Speaker 1: field when there is snow. Not that much fun. Mike, Yeah, no,
13:47
Speaker 1: I I get it. That's you be a studio guy
13:48
Speaker 1: and do not have to necessarily worry about that type
13:50
Speaker 1: of stuff. So temperature controlled environment. I like the consistency,
13:54
Speaker 1: but whether to me add and you know it because
13:57
Speaker 1: you've braved the elements just reporting on a lot of
13:59
Speaker 1: these games. That's a factor. And I know that those
14:02
Speaker 1: conversations come up with players and coaches. Okay, so Mike,
14:05
Speaker 1: we talk about this a lot. The a f C
14:06
Speaker 1: North is my wheelhouse. I basically spend every Sunday this
14:09
Speaker 1: time of year freezing every way possible. I burned myself
14:14
Speaker 1: with handwarmers the other day, actually patching them on my
14:17
Speaker 1: body everywhere. But in any case, that's a story for
14:19
Speaker 1: another day. It's no secret that as much as I
14:22
Speaker 1: may dislike the cold weather, it can indeed be incredibly
14:25
Speaker 1: helpful for the teams that regularly play in cold weather.
14:29
Speaker 1: It helps for people who are acclimated to it, like
14:31
Speaker 1: fabulous kickers like our friend Justin Tucker, who was on
14:34
Speaker 1: in one of our earlier episodes, of course, and who
14:37
Speaker 1: has set the record for the longest field goal in
14:39
Speaker 1: NFL history. He's constantly playing in these cold climates and
14:43
Speaker 1: swirling winds, and he talks about how that has hardened
14:47
Speaker 1: him or improved his ability to continue to do so.
14:52
Speaker 1: So you have players like that at all sorts of
14:54
Speaker 1: positions that are used to that. So let me give
14:57
Speaker 1: you this. Since nineteen seventy, home teams playing outdoors when
15:01
Speaker 1: the temperature was fifteen or below at kickoff have one
15:05
Speaker 1: six d seven per cent of the games. If it's
15:09
Speaker 1: at or below freezing, the home team wins sixty two
15:13
Speaker 1: point five percent of the time. And if the temperature
15:18
Speaker 1: is actually above thirty two degrees, well, then home teams
15:23
Speaker 1: win at fifty seven point three percent, which is the
15:25
Speaker 1: general range for home field advantage. So let's go to this.
15:28
Speaker 1: How about this The Ravens, the Patriots, the Steelers, and
15:31
Speaker 1: the Packers, four teams that play in four of the
15:34
Speaker 1: coldest places that we have. Basically, I mean, obviously Buffalo
15:38
Speaker 1: Cleveland have something to say about that. But these are
15:41
Speaker 1: definitely four teams that very regularly play in sub forty
15:45
Speaker 1: degree temperature. All four of them gain is significant advantage
15:50
Speaker 1: when the weather is below forty degrees. Listen to this,
15:54
Speaker 1: Since two thousand. The Ravens have won eighty five point
15:59
Speaker 1: seven percent of their games in sub forty temperatures. The
16:03
Speaker 1: Patriots have won eighties seven point eight percent of their
16:08
Speaker 1: games in sub forty temperatures. The Steelers the Steelers seventy
16:12
Speaker 1: eight point two percent, the Packers seventy eight point five.
16:15
Speaker 1: I mean that that's really significant, Mike, It's huge. I mean,
16:18
Speaker 1: just think about what it's like when you are used
16:22
Speaker 1: to warm weather and you go to a cold environment,
16:25
Speaker 1: like that's tough. I remember my first time because I
16:27
Speaker 1: grew up in the Northeast, and my first time in
16:29
Speaker 1: northern California and San Francisco. My first winter, I am
16:32
Speaker 1: laughing at everyone on the streets bundled up in winter coats.
16:36
Speaker 1: I'm wearing a hoodie and I'm thinking it's not even
16:38
Speaker 1: because it's not that cold. Second winter in San Francisco,
16:41
Speaker 1: I was just like everyone else. And by the way,
16:43
Speaker 1: I was doing it in the summertime, because it actually
16:45
Speaker 1: gets kind of cold in SF during the summer. But
16:47
Speaker 1: the point is your body, I think, just adjust and
16:50
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, Yaska team that's not necessarily
16:52
Speaker 1: used to those, you know, sub forty temperatures that you
16:55
Speaker 1: know fans in Baltimore and the Ravens are used to
16:57
Speaker 1: where the Patriots are used to, or any of those
16:59
Speaker 1: environments that you just made reference to. And it's a
17:01
Speaker 1: little bit of a problem. But earlier adity in the podcast,
17:04
Speaker 1: you made reference to the the massive advantage that the
17:07
Speaker 1: Broncos had. They were right behind the Ravens in terms
17:09
Speaker 1: of winning at home. You and I initially speculated, Hey,
17:11
Speaker 1: it's altitude. That's a problem. If anyone's trying to run
17:14
Speaker 1: in Denver, that's not the easiest thing if you're not
17:17
Speaker 1: used to running an elevation. But the Broncos and that
17:20
Speaker 1: home versus wage disparity, you actually see something of pretty
17:23
Speaker 1: interesting here. We're all aware Denver not only plays during
17:26
Speaker 1: the cold winter months, but they also play at that
17:29
Speaker 1: elevation that's really high. The combination of the altitude and
17:33
Speaker 1: the weather actually affects teams more in the summer and
17:36
Speaker 1: fall months or the earlier parts of the schedule. Check
17:39
Speaker 1: this out. Between ninety eight and the Broncos won a
17:44
Speaker 1: staggering seventy nine percent of its games in September at home.
17:50
Speaker 1: Over that four decades span, there were forty three and
17:53
Speaker 1: twelve that's seventy eight percent in home games over seventy degrees,
17:58
Speaker 1: But when just sixty two of the games when the
18:01
Speaker 1: temperature is under forty five degrees, that's definitely something that
18:05
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us are a little surprised
18:07
Speaker 1: about when we were going through some of those numbers.
18:10
Speaker 1: Once again, the cold and the altitude seemingly less effective
18:14
Speaker 1: than just the summer and fall months with some of
18:16
Speaker 1: those altitude numbers that the players are having to deal with.
18:19
Speaker 1: But Adity, you set the table real nice at the
18:21
Speaker 1: start of this episode. When we come back on NFL Explain,
18:24
Speaker 1: we'll talk about the all important human element with regard
18:28
Speaker 1: to this topic. Is there a way to chemically explain
18:31
Speaker 1: why teams might have a home field advantage? We got
18:34
Speaker 1: the answers to those questions coming up next on NFL Explain.
18:40
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Speaker 1: the world. Kendrell The Heart of Progress. Welcome back to
19:40
Speaker 1: NFL explained Mike, Amita dd kin kabwahla with you? And
19:43
Speaker 1: what about the one person that's almost securedly getting booed
19:46
Speaker 1: by the home team during the game. Indeed, you know
19:49
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. It's the officials NFL refs. We
19:52
Speaker 1: know they do an extraordinary job trying to police what
19:55
Speaker 1: is an incredibly intense, fast moving game and doing it live. Mike,
20:00
Speaker 1: Let's not forget that piece, right, Everybody at home has
20:03
Speaker 1: the benefit of these high definite camera feeds, and these
20:07
Speaker 1: guys have to do it in a split second. So
20:09
Speaker 1: let me say that all right, now that I cut
20:10
Speaker 1: you off, keep going, no slow motion replay, they don't
20:13
Speaker 1: have that advantage in well, everyone's got their biases and they,
20:17
Speaker 1: of course succumb to a little bit of peer pressure
20:19
Speaker 1: from the masses. Doesn't that make a little bit of
20:21
Speaker 1: sense here? So what does the data say? Let's start
20:23
Speaker 1: with the staff. Once the NFL instituted instant replay, home
20:27
Speaker 1: team winning percentages dropped from fifty eight point five percent
20:31
Speaker 1: to fifty six percent, So perhaps it acted like a
20:34
Speaker 1: little bit of an alf on the shelf. For the rest,
20:36
Speaker 1: it does make sense to me that that would have
20:38
Speaker 1: happened with instant replay. Since nine seventy, road teams have
20:41
Speaker 1: accounted for fifty one point four of all penalties, so
20:45
Speaker 1: a slightly higher rate that has stayed relatively consistent in
20:49
Speaker 1: each decade. That adds up to the road teams being
20:52
Speaker 1: penalized for thirty thousand, eight hundred and sixty one yards
20:56
Speaker 1: more than home teams, or just about the amount of
21:00
Speaker 1: yards that Ryan Tannehill is actually thrown in his career.
21:03
Speaker 1: But when we look at the delay of game, road
21:05
Speaker 1: teams have a haunted for fifty seven point five percent
21:08
Speaker 1: of all those penalties since two thousand one, so either
21:11
Speaker 1: it's relatively a subjectivity issue on that particular call, or
21:15
Speaker 1: maybe my guy fireman D actually has that the noise
21:20
Speaker 1: that's rocking, that's actually becoming a factor in the games.
21:23
Speaker 1: But a d D. Once again, you look at the
21:25
Speaker 1: refs and the amount of screaming that's happening towards those guys,
21:28
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised that maybe there's a little bit of
21:31
Speaker 1: home cooking and the home team gets a little bit
21:33
Speaker 1: of love. I will say this, I think that the
21:36
Speaker 1: delay of game at fifty seven point five percent, that's interesting,
21:40
Speaker 1: but just fifty one point four percent on all penalties
21:43
Speaker 1: that differential for road teams versus home teams. That almost
21:47
Speaker 1: feels like the margin of error to me, well two
21:49
Speaker 1: and a half percent from a home team to the
21:52
Speaker 1: road team overall, since since the replay to me, does
21:55
Speaker 1: scream to that. And by the way, I'm not suggesting
21:57
Speaker 1: that the referees are doing it intentionally. I think that
22:00
Speaker 1: there is a subconscious factor there. I've talked to enough
22:03
Speaker 1: coaches in multiple sports will all say this same thing.
22:06
Speaker 1: They always feel like it's harder to get some of
22:08
Speaker 1: those calls when they're on the road and easier at home.
22:12
Speaker 1: And I just think when you have fans, and it
22:14
Speaker 1: look depends on the sport, I guess, but when you
22:16
Speaker 1: have fans in that noise, I think there's a little
22:19
Speaker 1: bit of a factor that's there. All right, Michael, moving
22:21
Speaker 1: on from the officials, how about we talk about something
22:25
Speaker 1: else that maybe is a little bit more black and white,
22:28
Speaker 1: and that is the visiting locker room. I will tell you,
22:33
Speaker 1: as someone who has been in many, many, many locker rooms,
22:36
Speaker 1: and who of course mrs being in locker rooms because
22:39
Speaker 1: of the COVID pandemic and can't wait to get back,
22:41
Speaker 1: the visiting locker room is always basically the size of
22:44
Speaker 1: a thimble. Sometimes really wonder how you get every single
22:49
Speaker 1: body in there, and even in brand new six billion
22:54
Speaker 1: dollars so Fi Stadium. Mike Zimmer, one of my favorite
22:58
Speaker 1: curmudgeon coaches, the Vikings head coach, called the visitors locker
23:03
Speaker 1: room a mess and was because he couldn't get his
23:06
Speaker 1: bull team in to have a meeting. Jared Allen once
23:10
Speaker 1: called the visiting locker room at Arrowhead Stadium trash, and
23:15
Speaker 1: he said that it rivaled some high school gyms. In NFL,
23:19
Speaker 1: teams had to allow enough space for social distancing in
23:23
Speaker 1: locker rooms, but that requirement was dropped in one and
23:28
Speaker 1: so teams got to go back to their gamesmanship. I'm
23:32
Speaker 1: with you there, d I'm actually not surprised by any
23:34
Speaker 1: of this, especially given what happened between a couple of
23:37
Speaker 1: rivals in the NFC East Washington and Dallas. Recently. Cowboys
23:41
Speaker 1: played at Washington on December twelve, and the team actually
23:44
Speaker 1: heard from the Seahawks. Gotta love this that the visiting
23:47
Speaker 1: seat warmers at FedEx Field were quote unreliable, so they
23:51
Speaker 1: had to have their own shipped in from Ohio. And
23:54
Speaker 1: of course the branding is important, so the Cowboy logos
23:56
Speaker 1: were all over it. But not to be outdone, the
23:58
Speaker 1: football team actually brought its own benches to a T
24:01
Speaker 1: and T stadium where they played at Dallas two weeks later.
24:04
Speaker 1: I know what you're wondering. Yeah, indoors Washington, they did
24:08
Speaker 1: all of it. It's temperature controlled in that environment, and
24:11
Speaker 1: they got beat fifty six to fourteen. I didn't know. Adity.
24:15
Speaker 1: We have laid out a lot of the reasons why
24:16
Speaker 1: home field advantage can exist for some teams, Is there
24:21
Speaker 1: one other factor that maybe we didn't get to because
24:23
Speaker 1: for me, I think there's one thing that does sort
24:26
Speaker 1: of stand out to me, and it's the amount of
24:29
Speaker 1: metrics that we can now measure for individuals, whether it
24:33
Speaker 1: is the nutrition and how you're able to track their intake,
24:36
Speaker 1: their food intake. You know, we're always wearing kind of
24:38
Speaker 1: our smart watches and understanding sort of like our top
24:41
Speaker 1: speeds when we're out on the field, or you know,
24:43
Speaker 1: how how much exertion you're actually emanating during practice or
24:46
Speaker 1: in a game. I don't know. I think monitoring some
24:48
Speaker 1: of this stuff also sort of levels potentially a playing
24:51
Speaker 1: field for some of the road teams as they hit
24:53
Speaker 1: the road. Sure, that could be part of it, but
24:55
Speaker 1: I also think that so much of it is emotional
24:58
Speaker 1: and kind of individual and and I'll give you a
25:01
Speaker 1: perfect example and again go back to two a f
25:04
Speaker 1: C North teams. But this is just be because I
25:06
Speaker 1: just had this conversation with Bengal safety Von Bell last
25:09
Speaker 1: week and the Bengals were sitting at seven and four,
25:12
Speaker 1: and they had two consecutive home games and they lost
25:16
Speaker 1: them both, and I was like, why do you seem
25:18
Speaker 1: to play better on the road than you do at home?
25:20
Speaker 1: And Von Bell says to me, I just love being
25:23
Speaker 1: on the road, said, I love shutting up a road crowd.
25:26
Speaker 1: I love that you know your family isn't there, You
25:29
Speaker 1: have nothing to focus on. You go to the hotel
25:33
Speaker 1: and you have the game, and that's it, and you're
25:34
Speaker 1: not worried about getting anybody tickets, and you're not worried
25:37
Speaker 1: about whether you have to pick your mom up at
25:38
Speaker 1: the airport, and all of that is gone. It's just
25:42
Speaker 1: being on the road. So I can appreciate that. But
25:45
Speaker 1: then the flip side to that, Another guy that I
25:47
Speaker 1: cover extremely regularly, have covered for his whole career, who
25:50
Speaker 1: potentially could be Defensive Player of the Year this year,
25:53
Speaker 1: t J Watt Mike, he is significantly better at home
25:58
Speaker 1: than he is on the road. As of this moment
26:00
Speaker 1: right now, thirty nine home games, he has forty six sacks.
26:04
Speaker 1: Thirty six road game he's twenty one sacks, more than
26:09
Speaker 1: double the sack number at home. And we've asked him
26:13
Speaker 1: repeatedly why what is it about hines Field, And his
26:18
Speaker 1: only answer is, I don't know. I just love hines Field.
26:22
Speaker 1: I love being home, And who knows? Is it those
26:25
Speaker 1: terrible towels, is it renegade? Is it the fact that
26:28
Speaker 1: you know, he gets to drive his own car, is
26:29
Speaker 1: opposed to going on a team bus. I don't know.
26:32
Speaker 1: But you know what, let me go back to that
26:33
Speaker 1: hotel thing really quickly, and I apologize about jumping around here.
26:37
Speaker 1: All of our listeners may not know this. The home
26:40
Speaker 1: team also stays in a hotel the night before the
26:43
Speaker 1: game and also has to go through bed checks and
26:47
Speaker 1: also as somebody knocking on their door to make sure
26:50
Speaker 1: that they're curfew and that there's nobody in their room
26:53
Speaker 1: that's supposed to be in their room. But the differences
26:56
Speaker 1: when you are a road team, you get on the
26:58
Speaker 1: plane at you know, maybe one o'clock, you fly to
27:01
Speaker 1: where you're going, You go to the hotel, and you
27:04
Speaker 1: have your meetings and that's it. When you are the
27:07
Speaker 1: home team, you might do your morning walk through and
27:09
Speaker 1: then you're free the whole afternoon, and then you might
27:12
Speaker 1: have an evening meeting and then you know, you might
27:15
Speaker 1: have an hour break and then you have to show
27:16
Speaker 1: up at the hotel. So yes, you do stay in
27:19
Speaker 1: a hotel at home, but it's not quite the same
27:22
Speaker 1: sort of isolation as when you are at home. That's fair. Look,
27:28
Speaker 1: we're also knocking on the door a d D to
27:30
Speaker 1: the playoffs, which are right around the corner of the Yeah,
27:34
Speaker 1: like some of the stats that we've thrown out there,
27:36
Speaker 1: I'm curious, you know where we sit with home field
27:39
Speaker 1: advantage when the postseason comes around. Well, since nineteen seventy, Mike,
27:44
Speaker 1: home teams have had a sixty six point nine percent
27:48
Speaker 1: win percentage in playoff games. Now, to be fair, it's
27:53
Speaker 1: usually the higher seeded team team that's the one that's
27:55
Speaker 1: playing at home, and so in theory are probably the
27:58
Speaker 1: better team. But home field has yielded a fifty nine
28:03
Speaker 1: point eight percent advantage in wild games where teams are
28:06
Speaker 1: allegedly ostensibly evenly matched. Still, that is one of those
28:10
Speaker 1: things where you know, the crowd and the home cooking
28:13
Speaker 1: and the familiarity and all of that could be coming
28:16
Speaker 1: into play. Yeah. Yeah, It's just something that I think
28:19
Speaker 1: people should be mindful of as these postseasons, which should
28:22
Speaker 1: be epic, that are right around the corner, just to
28:24
Speaker 1: have that in the back of your mind as you're
28:26
Speaker 1: thinking about who potentially could have an advantage. One other
28:29
Speaker 1: thing that comes from the world of science of deity,
28:31
Speaker 1: which we found fascinating. There is a study done by
28:35
Speaker 1: Canadian researchers Oh Canada Handling Business for US, presented at
28:39
Speaker 1: the International Congress of neuro Endo Chronology. Yes, that's actually
28:43
Speaker 1: a thing, really interesting finding regarding home field advantage. They
28:48
Speaker 1: followed not a football team because it's Canada, or I like,
28:50
Speaker 1: there's a hockey team because that's kind of what they
28:52
Speaker 1: do up there for an entire season. They tracked this
28:54
Speaker 1: hockey team swabbing the players saliva before and after games. No,
28:59
Speaker 1: it wasn't a COVID test. This is something different. Testosterone
29:02
Speaker 1: levels higher before home games in addition to stress hormone cortisol.
29:08
Speaker 1: Researchers claimed that this points towards the primal instinct of
29:12
Speaker 1: defending one's territory. Come on, I love that. Well yeah,
29:16
Speaker 1: I mean, isn't that what they always say? We have
29:18
Speaker 1: to protect our home, protect our home. Football coaches say
29:20
Speaker 1: that all the time, players say that all the time.
29:23
Speaker 1: It seems to make sense. I think that the stress
29:25
Speaker 1: court is the stress hormone cortisol being higher to is
29:28
Speaker 1: probably because there's a little bit more pressure to perform
29:31
Speaker 1: for your home fans. You definitely don't want your home
29:33
Speaker 1: fans doing you. And if you have family, then you're
29:37
Speaker 1: performing for your family as well, and there's something more
29:39
Speaker 1: immediate and having them present than just watching you on TV. No,
29:42
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Would love to hear what you guys
29:43
Speaker 1: think as you continue to listen to these episodes, and
29:45
Speaker 1: we keep getting really good questions the d D and
29:48
Speaker 1: I am tracking them and compiling the list. I know
29:51
Speaker 1: we get some good feedback on the mail bag episodes,
29:53
Speaker 1: So if you have some questions, you can find us
29:55
Speaker 1: on Twitter at a King Kaballa at Mike Underscore yem.
29:58
Speaker 1: You can always use the hashtag NFL explained um A
30:03
Speaker 1: d D would also like to hear from some of
30:05
Speaker 1: our fans if I think home field advantage is an
30:07
Speaker 1: actual thing once again, use the hashtag NFL. Not only that,
30:12
Speaker 1: but also who they think has the best home field
30:14
Speaker 1: advantage or what is the best home field environment? You know,
30:19
Speaker 1: because I will say, I'll go back to this, the
30:21
Speaker 1: Dog Pound in Cleveland. Those people are unbelievable. They're amazing.
30:25
Speaker 1: And last year when I was there when they beat
30:28
Speaker 1: the Steelers at the end of the season and clinched
30:30
Speaker 1: their first playoff burthen forever and there were people crying
30:33
Speaker 1: in the stands. I mean, that's how move they were,
30:36
Speaker 1: but but it hasn't really helped the players for a
30:41
Speaker 1: long time prior to these last two seasons. Let's not
30:44
Speaker 1: talk about that, but you think about it. So that's
30:46
Speaker 1: a fan base that's tremendous, that's an environment that's amazing,
30:50
Speaker 1: but sadly, for a long time, the team that was
30:53
Speaker 1: fielded wasn't really that great. And so you know, there
30:56
Speaker 1: is a little of a I don't want to call
30:58
Speaker 1: it a chicken and egg because it's not, but this
31:00
Speaker 1: is what sort of affects those numbers, which is what
31:02
Speaker 1: we said at the top. You know, the Steelers, they
31:04
Speaker 1: have an amazing environment, man, And just this week Mike
31:07
Speaker 1: Tomlin was talking about how much he loves Stealer Nation
31:09
Speaker 1: and needs Steeler Nation Monday Night against the Browns. Sure,
31:12
Speaker 1: but part of Stealer Nation being what it is is
31:15
Speaker 1: because the Steelers have given them so much to cheer.
31:17
Speaker 1: Um with you. There a d D. And I think
31:19
Speaker 1: the main takeaway is that there's definitely been a decline
31:22
Speaker 1: in home field advantage, which we actually see sports books
31:24
Speaker 1: acting on most experts, they're atributing it to not only
31:27
Speaker 1: the improvements in sports science, but also travel for away teams.
31:31
Speaker 1: It's actually a little easier for opposing fans to get
31:34
Speaker 1: to some of those away games as well, and it
31:36
Speaker 1: will be awesome to see how some of this stuff
31:38
Speaker 1: plays out in the postseason. Um. Once again, you can
31:41
Speaker 1: find us on social media. Continue to fire off those questions.
31:44
Speaker 1: Add always fun to go through some of these topics
31:47
Speaker 1: with you, always, always, and thank you all for listening.
31:50
Speaker 1: That was home Field Advantage explained. America's most reliable network
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