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Francesca Rudkin: GDP growth is welcome before Christmas · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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  Speaker 1: Confirmation that the economy grew strongly in the third quarter
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  Speaker 1: of the year is welcome news before Christmas. Finance Minister
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  Speaker 1: Nikola Willis stated in the first line of her press
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  Speaker 1: release yesterday, welcome news may be a bit of an
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  Speaker 1: understatement given the context of recent attempts to undermine Nicola
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  Speaker 1: Willis in the government's approach to writing the economy. Willis
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  Speaker 1: also needed the good GEDP news after a disappointing hearfy
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  Speaker 1: economic and Fiscal update on Tuesday in which almost every
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  Speaker 1: economic and fiscal indicator moved e was so slightly in
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  Speaker 1: the wrong direction. The GDP results showed the economy to
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  Speaker 1: better than expected in the September quarter, growing one point
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  Speaker 1: one percent GDP per capitoo zero point nine percent for
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  Speaker 1: the quarter, if that's how you prefer to measure it.
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  Speaker 1: The increase in economic activity was broad based, with increases
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  Speaker 1: in fourteen of the sixteen industry that Stats New Zealand
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  Speaker 1: looked at, so that this is good news. But the
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  Speaker 1: problem with GDP figures is that they're provisional and often revised,
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  Speaker 1: and that's what's happened with the previous JOOM call, which
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  Speaker 1: did worse than previously thought. Falling one percent. If you
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  Speaker 1: look at it from an annual point of view, from
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  Speaker 1: September to September, the economy contracted point five percent. So
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  Speaker 1: these numbers provide an overview of what's going on. They
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  Speaker 1: are a sign of a gentle uptick rather than a
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  Speaker 1: booming recovery, but they don't give politicians a true sense
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  Speaker 1: of what's going on in New Zealander's day to day lives.
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  Speaker 1: As Liam Dann wrote in The Herald this week, GDP
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  Speaker 1: doesn't capture wealth distribution. It doesn't tell us about the
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  Speaker 1: health of our nation or the overall happiness of its people.
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  Speaker 1: As the end of the year approaches, Luxeon and Wallis
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  Speaker 1: survive twenty five to enjoy a summer barbecue in a
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  Speaker 1: bevy or two and get to return to their leadership
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  Speaker 1: roles in twenty twenty six. But hopefully they and their
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  Speaker 1: political colleagues will spend some time over the summer listening
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  Speaker 1: to ordinary kiwis to get a sense of how New
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  Speaker 1: Zealanders feel about the cost of living, job security, and
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  Speaker 1: the challenges facing those running a business. Yesterday's GDP figures
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  Speaker 1: give Willis breathing room, but the pressure is on Next year.
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  Speaker 1: Willis is excellent at sticking to her core messaging of
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  Speaker 1: fiscal discipline without causing misery to voters. It's a plan
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  Speaker 1: that holds some risk. There's a little room to deal
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  Speaker 1: with the consequence of potential natural disasters or global financial
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  Speaker 1: crisis in the near future. But look, this steady as
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  Speaker 1: you go message will remain next year. And yet there's
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  Speaker 1: a sense the hard yards haven't started yet. If we're
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  Speaker 1: going to meet the twenty twenty nine twenty thirty surplus target,
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  Speaker 1: the rule that is likely going to have to come
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  Speaker 1: out again. Social services and public services will most likely
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  Speaker 1: be the targets. In the meantime, we can head into
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  Speaker 1: the new year with some cautious optimism that the economy
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  Speaker 1: may have pecked a look around the corner. I like
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  Speaker 1: the expression one of my listeners suggested to me on
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  Speaker 1: Sunday Brick by Brick in twenty six Maybe then we
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  Speaker 1: might have built something a little bit more stable by
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  Speaker 1: twenty two. For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge,
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  Speaker 1: listen live to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays,
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  Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.