Latest / The Morning Edition / Donald Trump says he has a peace deal with Iran. But does he?

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Donald Trump says he has a peace deal with Iran. But does he? · The Morning Edition

• 0:07
  S1: What have Iran and the United States actually agreed to
• 0:10
  S1: in this memorandum of understanding that the two countries announced
• 0:14
  S1: over the weekend? I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening
• 0:18
  S1: to The Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney
• 0:20
  S1: Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher helps
• 0:25
  S1: break it down for us to work out if it's
• 0:28
  S1: a peace deal, a cease fire or something else entirely.
• 0:33
  S1: It's June the 18th. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:40
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 0:41
  S1: Okay, Peter, let's start off with what are the main
• 0:43
  S1: takeaways from this memorandum of understanding that the US and
• 0:47
  S1: Iran have settled on over this war? Trump has called
• 0:50
  S1: it a peace deal. Is it?
• 0:52
  S2: No it's not. The first thing about the memorandum of
• 0:55
  S2: understanding is that we haven't seen any memorandum of understanding yet.
• 1:01
  S2: They tell us that they'll publish it after they've formally
• 1:04
  S2: signed it. So everything we say about it is based
• 1:07
  S2: on statements from the protagonists and assumptions and expert interpretation.
• 1:13
  S2: It's the first thing. So we have to qualify everything
• 1:15
  S2: we say with that. The second thing is, no, it's
• 1:19
  S2: certainly not a peace agreement. All it does and this
• 1:22
  S2: is really important. It does, at least in principle, restore
• 1:27
  S2: the flow of oil, all the big issues which are
• 1:32
  S2: the supposed cause of this war, and points of contention,
• 1:36
  S2: plus some more, are left unsettled and are supposed to
• 1:40
  S2: be settled in a 60 day period of negotiation to
• 1:44
  S2: follow the signing of this MoU. Should it actually be signed,
• 1:48
  S2: which is still in some question.
• 1:49
  S1: And it's meant to be signed on Friday, I believe.
• 1:51
  S2: Yeah. That's right. In in Switzerland. But let's not let's
• 1:56
  S2: not miss the um, let's not miss the lead to
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  S2: this story really. This is the best news for the
• 2:03
  S2: world economy since this war started, because the resumption of
• 2:08
  S2: oil flow means that the oil price. Well, it's already
• 2:12
  S2: come down. So remember, before the war, a barrel of
• 2:16
  S2: Brent crude oil was trading at about 70 USD. It
• 2:20
  S2: peaked during the war at about 120 USD, with shocking
• 2:24
  S2: implications for the price. Obviously the price of energy around
• 2:29
  S2: the world, but also for inflation with inflation going up,
• 2:33
  S2: erodes people's purchasing power. Everybody gets poorer with inflation, and
• 2:39
  S2: central banks have to put interest rates up. And as
• 2:41
  S2: several have done in the past, even in the last week.
• 2:44
  S2: So that crimps growth. It dampens economic growth. So the
• 2:48
  S2: war has already been terrible for global inflation and economic growth.
• 2:52
  S2: And collective worker incomes down by 1.1 trillion USD in
• 2:57
  S2: the last few months. It's just been disastrous for for
• 3:01
  S2: the global economy. So this is good news. This restores
• 3:05
  S2: the flow of oil. It's back down below 80 USD
• 3:09
  S2: as we speak. So this is a huge improvement. And
• 3:13
  S2: it's expected to come down more in the months ahead
• 3:15
  S2: as the full backlog of oil. There are some 500 ships,
• 3:20
  S2: oil tankers sitting blocked up in the Strait of Hormuz
• 3:23
  S2: that can now move out and the flow can resume.
• 3:27
  S2: It'll take weeks, but it is it does seem to
• 3:29
  S2: be underway. So this is the big news. All the
• 3:33
  S2: peace strategy, uh, contentious issues between the two of them
• 3:39
  S2: are still there. The hardest part of this whole negotiation
• 3:43
  S2: remains ahead. So let's just keep it in perspective. There
• 3:48
  S2: is no peace deal. This is a temporary agreement, a ceasefire,
• 3:52
  S2: and a period of negotiation where oil is allowed to
• 3:55
  S2: flow again. However, whether even that modest improvement is maintained
• 4:03
  S2: is in question because while the US has lifted its
• 4:06
  S2: blockade and allowed Iranian oil tankers to start flowing out again.
• 4:10
  S2: Out of the Strait of Hormuz, just in the last
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  S2: 24 hours. We have reports now from the US through
• 4:16
  S2: NBC news, that the Iranians are firing drones at commercial shipping,
• 4:23
  S2: trying to leave the strait, and have been every night
• 4:25
  S2: since this deal was announced. And the US Navy has
• 4:29
  S2: intercepted those drones. So they didn't do any damage to
• 4:32
  S2: commercial shipping. So it's not clear. Are the Iranians insisting
• 4:37
  S2: that the memorandum is formally signed before they stop harassing shipping?
• 4:42
  S2: Or is the is the military the IRGC not obeying
• 4:49
  S2: the the civilian leadership and continuing to wage this war
• 4:55
  S2: without sanction? These questions remain unanswered. But it's not clean.
• 5:01
  S2: It's not clear. And to quote the head of the
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  S2: world's biggest shipping liner company and oil tanker company, Mitsui O.s.k. Lines.
• 5:10
  S2: He said it will take several weeks to see if
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  S2: this deal is. The word he used was material, material
• 5:17
  S2: or whether it's just more bluster from political leaders.
• 5:23
  S1: After the break.
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  S2: The Iranians have successfully put a whole new and very
• 5:29
  S2: difficult set of conditions on US Israel using it as
• 5:34
  S2: a mechanism to squeeze Israel in a way they've not
• 5:37
  S2: been able to before.
• 5:49
  S1: Okay. Well, that hints to, like you said, the lack
• 5:52
  S1: of cleanliness, I guess, with regards to this deal, just
• 5:54
  S1: how fragile it might be. And you mentioned, of course,
• 5:57
  S1: the fact that the thorniest issues that have really kept
• 6:01
  S1: Iran and the US at odds for decades, they have
• 6:03
  S1: not been a part of this MOU as we understand it.
• 6:06
  S1: So I guess just tell us where things are at
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  S1: with regards to Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium and, of course,
• 6:12
  S1: its proxy war with Israel. Those are yet to be discussed.
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  S1: Is that right? Is there any hints as to what
• 6:17
  S1: each side has said about where they land on those issues?
• 6:21
  S2: It remains completely unclear, but we are not hearing any
• 6:26
  S2: hint that there is any agreed settlement on any point
• 6:31
  S2: to do with that. No settled agreement. What we do
• 6:35
  S2: know on the nuclear question is that there are. The
• 6:39
  S2: most sensitive part is that there's 440kg of highly enriched
• 6:43
  S2: uranium near weapons grade uranium, which is buried not only
• 6:48
  S2: in a deep underground vault, but the vault itself has
• 6:51
  S2: been collapsed by rubble that's fallen extensive debris from the
• 6:58
  S2: Israeli and American bombing last year. So it's buried deep,
• 7:02
  S2: difficult to get at. But the US is insisting that
• 7:06
  S2: it be dealt with somehow removed. There are questions about
• 7:09
  S2: how to do that, and it's completely unsettled. Trump has
• 7:12
  S2: said that the Iranians will never be allowed to have
• 7:15
  S2: a nuclear weapon, and the Iranians have said themselves they
• 7:17
  S2: don't want a nuclear weapon. But they've been saying that
• 7:20
  S2: ever since they signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation agreement in 1968,
• 7:25
  S2: I think it was. So to get the Iranians saying,
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  S2: we promise we're not going to have a nuclear bomb
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  S2: is nothing new and lacks any use or value whatsoever.
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  S2: And if that's as if that's the best they can do,
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  S2: the war has been completely pointless. And on your second
• 7:41
  S2: point about the proxy militias that Iran has created, funds,
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  S2: operates and directs the the cutting edge of this one
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  S2: is that the Israelis are fighting against Hezbollah, which is
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  S2: a major Iranian proxy militia in Lebanon. The Iranians are
• 8:03
  S2: saying there is no peace deal until the Israelis stop
• 8:08
  S2: fighting Hezbollah. However, there's no suggestion that the Iranians are
• 8:12
  S2: telling Hezbollah to stop firing on Israel. So the question is,
• 8:17
  S2: can those two countries, which are not participants in this
• 8:20
  S2: MoU and not participants in the peace talks, be constrained
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  S2: by a set of talks by by the US and Iran? Netanyahu,
• 8:30
  S2: the Israeli prime minister, has made clear he has no
• 8:33
  S2: intention of withdrawing Israeli troops from from Lebanese territory. He
• 8:38
  S2: might reduce the intensity of attacks, but he said they're
• 8:43
  S2: not going to leave Lebanon. And the Iranians are saying, well,
• 8:46
  S2: if the Israelis are staying in Lebanon, there's no peace deal.
• 8:50
  S2: So that's why these are such difficult, so intractable. And
• 8:55
  S2: on that second point about whether this agreement can apply
• 8:59
  S2: to the the Iranian proxies and to Israel, this was
• 9:04
  S2: not an issue in the in the last so-called nuclear
• 9:08
  S2: deal between the US and Iran. The JCPoA, Joint Comprehensive
• 9:12
  S2: plan of action that the Obama administration signed in 2015.
• 9:17
  S2: That deal dealt with the nuclear question quite effectively before
• 9:21
  S2: Trump tore up the deal, but did not even attempt
• 9:24
  S2: to include relations between Iran and its proxies and Israel.
• 9:30
  S2: So what's happened here is that the Iranians have successfully
• 9:33
  S2: put a whole new and very difficult set of conditions
• 9:39
  S2: on US, Israel, using it as a mechanism to squeeze
• 9:43
  S2: Israel in a way they've not been able to before.
• 9:46
  S2: And they're taking the opportunity of this war and Trump's
• 9:48
  S2: anxiety to get a peace deal to apply that pressure.
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  S1: Okay. So I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but
• 9:56
  S1: I just wanted.
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  S2: To I was doing a pretty good job of that.
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  S1: Myself. Well, I'm much trump you because I wanted to
• 10:01
  S1: ask you on this point, of course, that Israel and
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  S1: Lebanon neither have been a party to this memorandum of
• 10:06
  S1: understanding discussions between the U.S. and Iran. But as we know,
• 10:11
  S1: Israel is a key component, right. As to whether the U.S.
• 10:14
  S1: and Iran can stop hostilities and whether this war can
• 10:16
  S1: actually end. So looking forward, doesn't this mean that whatever
• 10:21
  S1: deal the Iranians and the U.S. hash out, it's likely
• 10:24
  S1: to become unstuck by Israel anyway because Netanyahu has said
• 10:27
  S1: the struggle has not ended. He's been very defiant. Right?
• 10:30
  S1: Of course, of wanting to keep the Israeli forces in Lebanon.
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  S1: And then, of course, the Iranians. That's a red line
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  S1: for them. So what hope is there?
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  S2: It looks difficult. It looks very difficult. That's why I
• 10:43
  S2: suppose it hasn't been settled and why they've given themselves
• 10:46
  S2: 60 days. These issues are so difficult. It's pretty likely,
• 10:50
  S2: I think, that the 60 days will expire and be
• 10:52
  S2: extended again. And they'll continue talking. Yeah. Which takes us
• 10:56
  S2: back to where we were before this war started. By
• 10:58
  S2: the way, the US and Iran were negotiating over the
• 11:03
  S2: nuclear issue and other other questions before the war, and
• 11:06
  S2: now they're going to return to the negotiations. So you
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  S2: have to really wonder what was the point? What was
• 11:11
  S2: the point of this war? The Iranians, if they continue
• 11:15
  S2: to insist that Israel must stop, must stop bombing Lebanon,
• 11:19
  S2: must stop bombing Hezbollah. Then Donald Trump is going to
• 11:23
  S2: have to be increasingly strident in the pressure he applies
• 11:26
  S2: to Netanyahu if he wants to stop the Israelis. We've
• 11:31
  S2: heard Donald Trump make his most critical, most savagely critical
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  S2: comments of. Netanyahu said that Netanyahu needs to be responsible,
• 11:40
  S2: that he was using disproportionate force with Hezbollah.
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  S3: I saw that attack. I saw where that bomb went.
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  S3: Did you see what happened? That was not that was
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  S3: a vicious that was too much. You know, you can
• 11:54
  S3: do too much also.
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  S2: And even said that Israel, without me, Israel would not exist.
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  S3: Without the United States, there would be no Israel. Without me,
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  S3: there would be no Israel because no other president was
• 12:08
  S3: willing to do what I did.
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  S2: So this is pretty strident rhetoric coming from Trump, as
• 12:13
  S2: he's getting frustrated with Netanyahu if he hopes to actually
• 12:16
  S2: stop the Israeli military action against Hezbollah. That's to prevent
• 12:21
  S2: Israel from protecting itself against an Iranian proxy that is
• 12:24
  S2: continuing to attack Israel. As Netanyahu is going to an
• 12:28
  S2: election where he's under tremendous pressure to keep this war
• 12:31
  S2: going and to defeat Hezbollah. How does Trump accomplish that?
• 12:35
  S2: What's he going to do it? It is a very
• 12:39
  S2: a very difficult, to say the least intractable question.
• 12:43
  S1: And that's just in October, right? This election for Netanyahu.
• 12:46
  S2: So it has to be by October at the latest.
• 12:48
  S1: Okay. And just hours before we started recording this on
• 12:51
  S1: Wednesday morning, Donald Trump said that he hoped the war
• 12:54
  S1: with Iran would soon be, quote, in the rear view mirror.
• 12:57
  S1: So we know how he gets tired of wars. You know,
• 12:59
  S1: similarly to how he was very engaged, I guess, with
• 13:02
  S1: the war in Gaza and then seemed to tire of that.
• 13:05
  S1: Is that not the sort of thing that the Iranians
• 13:07
  S1: might hear and just think, wow, we're primed to get
• 13:10
  S1: greater concessions out of him?
• 13:12
  S2: This continues Trump's line of rhetoric that he's been engaged
• 13:17
  S2: in for two months. American media have counted up all
• 13:20
  S2: the times he's said that we're very close to a
• 13:22
  S2: deal with Iran. Maybe tomorrow. In a few days we're
• 13:26
  S2: nearly finished. Yeah, around 40 times he'd said that. So
• 13:31
  S2: this has been signaling continuously. The Iranians haven't said a thing.
• 13:35
  S2: So this has been signaling that he's much more anxious
• 13:38
  S2: to get out of this war than the Iranians. And
• 13:41
  S2: that concedes a rhetorical and negotiating advantage to the Iranians
• 13:47
  S2: that has been underway continuously and continues to this day.
• 13:51
  S1: Well, Peter, I guess just to wrap up then, speaking
• 13:53
  S1: about the what seems to be the case that Iran
• 13:56
  S1: has the advantage over the United States. We know that
• 13:59
  S1: Trump has just said at the G7 summit in France
• 14:01
  S1: that the deal he struck with Iran means that Iran
• 14:04
  S1: will never have a nuclear weapon. Now, obviously, he often
• 14:07
  S1: says things like this. But meanwhile, I mean, he does.
• 14:10
  S1: The International Atomic Energy Agency recently reported that Iran is
• 14:13
  S1: now more likely to acquire a nuclear weapon than it
• 14:17
  S1: was before the war, presumably because, of course, that would
• 14:20
  S1: give it the protection against the onslaught that it's just
• 14:23
  S1: had from the United States. So if you were a
• 14:25
  S1: betting man, Peter, and I don't know if you are,
• 14:28
  S1: might Iran emerge from this conflict with a greater ability
• 14:31
  S1: to deter the U.S. than the U.S. has to deter Iran?
• 14:35
  S2: I'm not a betting man. There's way too much risk
• 14:37
  S2: taking in in my line of work already, Samantha. Uh,
• 14:42
  S2: I don't, uh, well, I think after this war, the
• 14:45
  S2: Iranians have so demonstrated their ability to coerce the US and, well,
• 14:52
  S2: the whole world really through the oil mechanism that it
• 14:56
  S2: would be it'll be a very long time before any
• 14:59
  S2: American president thinks again about openly attacking Iran, deterring Iran.
• 15:05
  S2: On the other hand, Iran has never stopped its attacks.
• 15:09
  S2: The difference is that the Iranian definition of war has
• 15:12
  S2: been different to the US definition of war. The US
• 15:15
  S2: definition is kinetic war in the main, uh, you know, bombs, bullets, Missiles.
• 15:21
  S2: The Iranians have been waging an indirect war, or a
• 15:26
  S2: hybrid war or a grey zone war or whatever you
• 15:28
  S2: want to call it. Ever since the Islamic Republic was
• 15:33
  S2: created after the revolution in 78. So sending assassins or
• 15:39
  S2: training assassins within the US to kill people. That's why
• 15:44
  S2: Trump himself was under protection long before he became president,
• 15:47
  S2: because he was a target. They've they wage cyber war.
• 15:52
  S2: They wage proxy war against Israel without the Iranians themselves.
• 15:57
  S2: So there's two different definitions. The Iranians have never been deterred, ever.
• 16:02
  S2: And I suspect this will only increase their ability to
• 16:06
  S2: deter the US.
• 16:08
  S1: Well, thank you, Peter, as always for your time.
• 16:10
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 16:21
  S1: In other news, today the University of New South Wales
• 16:24
  S1: has toppled the University of Melbourne as the best ranked
• 16:28
  S1: Australian university in a prestigious ranking survey for the first time.
• 16:32
  S1: The succession plans of Melbourne's billionaire Fox family are in
• 16:36
  S1: disarray after the abrupt resignation of Lindsay, Fox's eldest son
• 16:41
  S1: from the family owned logistics business, Linfox and Kyle Sandilands
• 16:46
  S1: has reached a $12 million settlement with his former employer,
• 16:50
  S1: Kiss Radio network owner Arn media. You can read more
• 16:54
  S1: at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by
• 17:03
  S1: Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our
• 17:06
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