Latest / Bull Market Conversations with Fexingo: Rallies, Momentum, and Riding Market Strength / How SpaceX and Starlink Create a 2 Trillion Dollar IPO Opportunity
Transcript
- Lucas: So Ark Invest put out a note yesterday — or maybe it was the day before — claiming that Starlink alone could support a two-trillion-dollar valuation for SpaceX when it eventually goes public. That number is getting a lot of attention, and I think it's worth unpacking what it actually means. Luna: Two trillion. That's bigger than the entire market cap of Apple or NVIDIA today. How do you even get to that number from a satellite internet business? Lucas: Right, it's enormous. Ark's logic is basically that Starlink is on track to capture a big chunk of the global broadband market. They're projecting something like fifty million subscribers by 2030 or so, which would generate tens of billions in revenue. Apply a growth premium to that, and you can stretch to a trillion-plus just for the consumer business. Then you add launch services, government contracts, the Mars ambitions — it's a narrative multiple. Luna: But SpaceX is still private. Most retail investors can't buy it directly. Though Ark does own SpaceX in their venture ETF, right? That's the one that trades under A-R-K-V-X. Lucas: Exactly. Ark's Venture ETF, ticker ARKVX, holds a small position in SpaceX — I think it's around five to seven percent of the fund. So if you own that ETF, you have indirect exposure. But the weighting is small enough that a two-trillion-dollar valuation for SpaceX would only move the ETF by a few percent. It's not a direct play. Luna: So the real question is whether retail investors should care about that two-trillion figure at all. I mean, it's a private valuation from a fund manager who owns the stock. There's an incentive to talk it up. Lucas: Absolutely. And Ark is known for making bold, long-term calls. Cathie Wood has been early on a lot of things. But the two-trillion number is less a price target and more a statement of conviction about the size of the opportunity. It's saying: if Starlink becomes the dominant global internet provider, this is what it could be worth. Luna: Let's ground that in some numbers. How many subscribers does Starlink have right now? Lucas: As of early 2026, they're probably around four to five million active subscribers. That's grown from basically zero four years ago. But five million is a long way from fifty million. The growth trajectory is impressive — they're adding maybe a million subscribers per year — but the addressable market is huge, especially in rural and underserved areas. Still, fifty million by 2030 would require accelerating that pace significantly. Luna: And the revenue per user matters too. Starlink's standard service is 120 dollars a month in the US, but they've been lowering prices in some markets. If average revenue per user drops to 80 bucks, fifty million subscribers is only 48 billion in annual revenue. That's a long way from supporting a two-trillion valuation on its own. Lucas: Right, you'd need a pretty aggressive multiple. At 48 billion in revenue, a two-trillion valuation would be over 40 times sales. That's not crazy for a high-growth tech company, but it's rich. And you're assuming they get to fifty million subs, which is not guaranteed. Plus, competition from Amazon's Project Kuiper and others is coming. Luna: So maybe the two-trillion figure is more about the whole SpaceX ecosystem — Starship, government launch contracts, the Mars mission narrative — not just Starlink. Lucas: Exactly. And that's where it gets interesting. Because SpaceX as a whole is probably the most valuable private company in the world. They dominate the launch market, they have a reusable rocket that no one else has matched, and they're building Starship which could open up a whole new set of capabilities. The two-trillion number might be Ark's way of saying: this is a generational company, and the upside is huge if everything goes right. Luna: But for a retail investor, the question is how to get exposure. The venture ETF is one option, but it's expensive — the expense ratio is like 0.75 percent — and it's actively managed. There are also a few other funds that hold private SpaceX shares through special purpose vehicles, but those are even more illiquid. Lucas: There's also the possibility that SpaceX does go public via a direct listing or a SPAC at some point. Elon Musk has been noncommittal, but with Starlink generating real revenue, an IPO for that business alone is plausible. Ark's note actually suggests that Starlink could be spun out. But that's speculation. Luna: I want to connect this to something we talked about last episode — prediction markets. Kalshi is building what they call a Bloomberg Terminal for high-end traders. It's the same idea of valuing non-traditional assets, but with event contracts instead of private stock. Lucas: Yeah, that headline jumped out to me too. Kalshi is trying to create a professional-grade platform for betting on everything from interest rate decisions to IPO dates. They're essentially saying: if you want to hedge or speculate on events, you should have the same tools that institutional traders use for equities. It's part of a broader trend where markets are expanding into areas that used to be the domain of gut feel. Luna: So the common thread is that we're seeing new ways for retail investors to access assets that were once off-limits — whether it's pre ipo stock via venture ETFs, or event contracts via prediction markets. And the bull market is probably accelerating that trend because people are hungry for returns. Lucas: Exactly. The S&P 500 is at 7,584, the NASDAQ is above 26,800. The traditional equity market feels expensive, so investors are looking for alternative sources of alpha. SpaceX, prediction markets, crypto — they all offer something that isn't correlated with the S&P. Whether they deliver is another story. Luna: You know, speaking of alternative sources, I think one reason we can dig into these niche topics is because we don't have to worry about ad breaks or sponsors steering the conversation. That's a choice we make deliberately. Lucas: Absolutely. It frees us up to follow the thread wherever it goes — even if it's a two-trillion-dollar valuation that might be total fantasy. If you value that kind of independence, and you want to support the show staying ad-free, you can find us at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure, just a way to keep the conversation going. Luna: And honestly, it's listeners like that who let us keep exploring these ideas without having to tailor the content to an advertiser's agenda. So, thank you. Lucas: Alright, back to SpaceX. One more thing I find interesting: the timing. Ark put out this note right as the market is hitting new highs. It feels like a narrative that feeds on optimism. If the bull market continues, people will be more willing to believe in two trillion. If it falters, that number will seem ridiculous. Luna: So it's partly a sentiment indicator. Ark is basically telling us that they think the bull market has legs, at least for transformative tech. Lucas: Exactly. And whether or not SpaceX ever reaches two trillion, the fact that a respected investment firm is willing to put that number out there tells you something about where we are in the cycle. It's a sign of conviction — or maybe of excess. Probably a bit of both. Luna: I'll be watching to see if any other pre ipo companies start getting similar eye-popping valuations. If SpaceX goes public and the market actually prices it at a trillion, that would be a watershed moment for the whole private to public pipeline. Lucas: It would. And it would validate the idea that retail investors can participate in the growth of private companies through vehicles like venture ETFs. That's a structural shift worth paying attention to, regardless of what happens with SpaceX specifically. Luna: Great point. Let's leave it there for today. Next time, we'll look at another corner of the market where the bull is charging.