Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | September 12th, 2026: The Iran Conflict Just Entered a More Dangerous Phase & Pentagon Considers Postwar Pullback

Transcript

The PDB Situation Report | September 12th, 2026: The Iran Conflict Just Entered a More Dangerous Phase & Pentagon Considers Postwar Pullback · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:07
  Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
• 0:09
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:10
  your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:13
  All right,
• 0:13
  let's get briefed.
• 0:15
  First up,
• 0:16
  we're tracking the latest escalation of the latest in the Iran conflict.
• 0:20
  Bennem Bentalablo from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
• 0:23
  he joins us to break down what it means and where things could go next.
• 0:27
  You know what?
• 0:28
  It's anybody's guess.
• 0:30
  Later in the show,
• 0:31
  on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks,
• 0:34
  can you believe that?
• 0:35
  25 years on.
• 0:36
  We'll look at reports that the Pentagon is considering
• 0:38
  a smaller US military footprint in the Middle East
• 0:42
  once the war with Iran is over.
• 0:45
  There's the caveat.
• 0:46
  We'll be joined by Steve Yates,
• 0:48
  great friend of the show of the Heritage Foundation,
• 0:50
  for more on what that could mean.
• 0:52
  But first,
• 0:53
  today's Situation Report spotlight.
• 0:56
  The latest round of fighting with Iran is raising new questions about
• 1:00
  just how far the Iranian regime is willing to push its attacks on American forces.
• 1:05
  We
• 1:06
  now know that Iranian missiles damaged roughly
• 1:09
  8 US F-15s at an air base in Jordan while an A-10 Warthog,
• 1:13
  a great plane,
• 1:15
  was hit hard enough to lose a wing.
• 1:17
  No American casualties were reported in those attacks.
• 1:20
  The strikes followed US attacks on five Iranian oil tankers
• 1:25
  launched after Iran attempted to hit an American warship.
• 1:28
  The pace of escalation,
• 1:30
  as you might now guess,
• 1:32
  seems to
• 1:32
  be accelerating,
• 1:33
  and the risks of a wider confrontation
• 1:36
  are,
• 1:36
  of course,
• 1:37
  growing with it.
• 1:38
  Let me bring in Bennet Bentallibu.
• 1:40
  He's a senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Iran program.
• 1:44
  Benham,
• 1:44
  thank you very much for coming back on The Situation Report.
• 1:47
  It's very brave of you.
• 1:49
  Always a pleasure.
• 1:49
  Thank you so much.
• 1:52
  Of course,
• 1:52
  friend,
• 1:53
  well.
• 1:55
  Where do we even start?
• 1:57
  Um
• 1:58
  Give me your assessment of,
• 1:59
  of,
• 1:59
  of where we're at right now with the Iran conflict.
• 2:03
  And I know that's a huge playing field I've just given you,
• 2:05
  but
• 2:06
  take it away and,
• 2:07
  and tell me what your assessment is,
• 2:08
  what you're thinking.
• 2:10
  You know,
• 2:10
  I,
• 2:10
  I,
• 2:10
  I just got to say the Iran conflict is playing out right now just in the shadow
• 2:14
  of the quarter century anniversary of the 9/11 attacks,
• 2:18
  and that really does focus the mind
• 2:20
  about the capabilities that America's adversaries,
• 2:23
  even if they're weak,
• 2:23
  even if they're unorganized,
• 2:25
  even if they're scattered,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:26
  can still pose to us and to the homeland and to American citizens,
• 2:30
  uh,
• 2:31
  all around the world.
• 2:31
  So,
• 2:32
  you know,
• 2:32
  it really does focus the mind.
• 2:34
  You know,
• 2:34
  zooming in,
• 2:35
  I think the president is adopting something of a zero tolerance policy towards
• 2:40
  Iranian instability in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
• 2:43
  Actually,
• 2:44
  I see a pretty successful streak of moves by the US since leaving the MOU.
• 2:49
  I see,
• 2:49
  you know,
• 2:49
  those 13 days of strikes against Iran south,
• 2:52
  that's really blinded the regime
• 2:54
  to what the US was doing on the opposite side of the strait,
• 2:57
  which was really digging around.
• 2:59
  Uh,
• 2:59
  the Strait of Hormuz moving rocks around to make
• 3:01
  sure that larger ships could pass through there,
• 3:04
  slowly using the US Navy to escort them.
• 3:07
  So I see actually the US,
• 3:08
  you know,
• 3:09
  militarily having opened the strait and then even,
• 3:12
  you know,
• 3:12
  Admiral Cooper of CENTCOM saying that there was demining
• 3:15
  and that's um that central part of the strait
• 3:17
  wasn't subject to mind.
• 3:18
  So I see the US having achieved a win here.
• 3:21
  It's trying to get media,
• 3:22
  markets,
• 3:23
  shippers and insurers in the private sector to feel the wind.
• 3:26
  And the Islamic Republic is intent on not letting us get that economic win,
• 3:31
  and that's precisely why they're targeting the
• 3:33
  tools that have helped open the strait,
• 3:35
  and that's the US Navy.
• 3:36
  And if I had to call
• 3:37
  Donald Trump's doctrine something right now against the Iranians,
• 3:41
  you know,
• 3:41
  the targeting of their oil tankers,
• 3:43
  I call it Ronald Reagan meets Hammurabi.
• 3:46
  You know,
• 3:46
  Ronald Reagan in terms of the forceful response against the
• 3:48
  Iranians' oil assets in the Persian Gulf and Hammurabi because
• 3:52
  an eye for an eye.
• 3:53
  Uh,
• 3:54
  except this time,
• 3:54
  according to Pete Hegstadt,
• 3:55
  Secretary of War,
• 3:56
  it's two eyes for one eye,
• 3:58
  um,
• 3:58
  but this regime,
• 4:00
  uh,
• 4:00
  is weak,
• 4:01
  lethal,
• 4:01
  however,
• 4:02
  and it's showing with missile attacks on Jordan or,
• 4:04
  you know,
• 4:05
  ASBM attacks on US,
• 4:07
  uh,
• 4:07
  Navy vessels,
• 4:08
  um,
• 4:09
  that it is still,
• 4:10
  uh,
• 4:10
  intent,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:11
  on fighting
• 4:12
  and,
• 4:13
  uh,
• 4:13
  with or without the midterms,
• 4:14
  with or without oil markets being what they are.
• 4:16
  I think the American public should know that.
• 4:19
  Well,
• 4:19
  yeah,
• 4:19
  you've raised,
• 4:20
  you've raised
• 4:21
  a,
• 4:21
  a,
• 4:21
  a lot of important points here.
• 4:23
  Let me try to
• 4:24
  um
• 4:25
  unpack some of that.
• 4:27
  The oil markets,
• 4:28
  OK,
• 4:28
  you know,
• 4:28
  just over the end of this past week,
• 4:30
  oil pricing hit over $100 a barrel,
• 4:33
  right,
• 4:33
  in response to what they're seeing right now.
• 4:35
  So,
• 4:37
  the,
• 4:37
  from a global energy markets perspective,
• 4:38
  it doesn't seem like they feel
• 4:40
  as if things are
• 4:42
  going in the right direction.
• 4:44
  And then
• 4:45
  you look at the shipping and,
• 4:46
  and you raised the,
• 4:47
  the,
• 4:48
  the idea
• 4:49
  that the US has opened the strait.
• 4:51
  And from a
• 4:53
  technical perspective,
• 4:54
  I,
• 4:55
  I completely agree,
• 4:56
  right?
• 4:56
  I think the demining effort,
• 4:58
  uh,
• 4:59
  appears to have been very successful,
• 5:00
  um,
• 5:01
  the escorting,
• 5:02
  the blockade of Iranian ports.
• 5:04
  But,
• 5:05
  um,
• 5:07
  traffic going through there is a,
• 5:10
  not almost not even a fraction,
• 5:12
  right?
• 5:12
  You're talking about just a tiny amount
• 5:14
  of
• 5:15
  the traffic going through compared to pre-conflict times.
• 5:18
  Uh,
• 5:19
  so,
• 5:19
  to your point again,
• 5:21
  The shipping
• 5:23
  industry,
• 5:23
  the insurers,
• 5:24
  cargo operators,
• 5:25
  they're not feeling it either.
• 5:27
  They're not seeing it apparently
• 5:28
  going in the right direction.
• 5:30
  How does that change?
• 5:32
  How do you,
• 5:32
  how do you translate this,
• 5:34
  this technical,
• 5:35
  logistical,
• 5:36
  operational
• 5:36
  win,
• 5:37
  uh,
• 5:38
  as you put it,
• 5:39
  within the strait in terms of taking control?
• 5:41
  How do you translate that?
• 5:43
  Because
• 5:43
  I think the regime.
• 5:46
  is looking at this and thinking we can ride this out.
• 5:48
  We love $100 barrels,
• 5:49
  right?
• 5:50
  We,
• 5:50
  there's nothing better than
• 5:51
  get it up to $120 because,
• 5:53
  because they know,
• 5:54
  I think they're,
• 5:55
  they're not unsophisticated and they know that that
• 5:57
  means additional pressure on the White House.
• 5:59
  And I don't think they really believe that the US
• 6:02
  in general terms anyway has much patience for things.
• 6:04
  We all have ADHD.
• 6:06
  So,
• 6:07
  it's a long,
• 6:07
  long-winded rambling way to get to a question,
• 6:10
  but
• 6:11
  how do you translate this
• 6:12
  to actual results
• 6:14
  that then impact
• 6:16
  the markets,
• 6:17
  uh,
• 6:17
  the American mood,
• 6:18
  that sort of thing.
• 6:20
  Well,
• 6:20
  you're right about,
• 6:21
  uh,
• 6:21
  the patience aspect and certainly
• 6:23
  we can't forget that the overarching strategy of Tehran and Trump term two
• 6:28
  is to wait him out
• 6:29
  whether they're shooting at you or talking at you or negotiating
• 6:32
  with you or whatever else that the regime is doing.
• 6:35
  They understood
• 6:36
  because of term.
• 6:36
  One that Trump was fundamentally different
• 6:39
  and that's why they're trying to have this,
• 6:41
  uh,
• 6:42
  larger win which or without Amenei at the helm,
• 6:44
  which or without
• 6:45
  oil being over $100 a barrel,
• 6:47
  which is to say
• 6:48
  we outlasted Max pressure 2.0 and Donald Trump 2.0 just like we outlasted.
• 6:53
  Uh,
• 6:54
  max pressure 1.0 and Trump 1.0,
• 6:56
  but I think the president knows that now.
• 6:58
  And I think actually,
• 6:59
  as,
• 6:59
  as might,
• 7:00
  uh,
• 7:00
  as the
• 7:01
  Truth Social or,
• 7:02
  you know,
• 7:03
  the media commentariats,
• 7:04
  uh,
• 7:04
  might say that time and,
• 7:06
  uh,
• 7:06
  time is limited and ADHD is riding high.
• 7:10
  When you look at the slow patient moves the US has taken,
• 7:13
  you know,
• 7:13
  economic D-Day identifying five key sectors of the Iranian economy.
• 7:18
  Next up,
• 7:19
  going after every single commercial aviation element
• 7:23
  in one of those five sectors,
• 7:24
  which was aviation,
• 7:25
  by the way.
• 7:26
  So they are
• 7:27
  setting it up and knocking it out of the park,
• 7:29
  setting it up and knocking it out of the park.
• 7:31
  They are.
• 7:31
  Iran is blockading us via,
• 7:33
  you know,
• 7:33
  the mining in the,
• 7:34
  in the spring in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 7:36
  The US finally sets up a maritime blockade and drives Iranians oil exports to zero.
• 7:41
  We now have that maritime blockade and we aired it
• 7:44
  with a financial air blockade.
• 7:46
  If the regime thinks it'll get a boom from the high oil prices this fall and winter,
• 7:50
  it's going to be grossly mistaken.
• 7:51
  So time is a weapon.
• 7:53
  Both sides keep trying to make it a weapon on their side,
• 7:56
  but with,
• 7:56
  with the,
• 7:57
  the new things the president has brought on board the maritime blockade,
• 8:01
  the opening of the strait,
• 8:02
  at least in technical terms,
• 8:03
  all of this is designed to
• 8:05
  limit the regime's ability or will to keep fighting
• 8:08
  and attract their resources to stay in the fight
• 8:11
  such that that private sector,
• 8:12
  the shippers and insurers
• 8:14
  can begin to feel that.
• 8:15
  And I do think that,
• 8:16
  you know,
• 8:17
  they are dealing with a hangover from the last conflict the president had,
• 8:20
  which is the
• 8:21
  Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis in Yemen,
• 8:24
  which was kind of left unfinished,
• 8:26
  and they carried that hangover into the Iran war.
• 8:29
  Plus they,
• 8:29
  you know,
• 8:30
  bankers,
• 8:30
  shivers,
• 8:31
  and insurers believed all the Iranian rhetoric.
• 8:34
  About end of days in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz
• 8:36
  and certainly Iranian drones hitting luxury
• 8:39
  sites just across the Gulf
• 8:41
  didn't help that,
• 8:43
  but ultimately this is going to be a slow and steady race,
• 8:45
  you know.
• 8:45
  I had
• 8:46
  a big Trump supporter in Washington
• 8:48
  in 2024 tell me
• 8:50
  that they're looking for cheap and easy.
• 8:51
  I said there is no cheap,
• 8:52
  there is no easy.
• 8:54
  If you'll stay right where you are,
• 8:56
  we'll be right back after this quick break.
• 8:58
  We'll be back.
• 8:59
  Hey,
• 9:00
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• 9:00
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• 10:06
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 10:08
  Let me bring back my guest,
• 10:10
  senior director of Foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Iran program,
• 10:14
  Bennem Bentalabloh.
• 10:15
  Whether we want to say it or not,
• 10:18
  I,
• 10:18
  I,
• 10:18
  I would assume the goal has got to be regime change,
• 10:21
  right?
• 10:21
  Because
• 10:22
  if at the end of all of this,
• 10:24
  what you get is the same
• 10:25
  Islamic Republic leadership.
• 10:28
  Making
• 10:29
  a small number of concessions
• 10:31
  but getting a deal and remaining in place.
• 10:35
  Look,
• 10:35
  we already know it appears there's good reporting,
• 10:38
  credible reporting and satellite imagery
• 10:39
  that indicates that they've accelerated their
• 10:42
  work at Pickaxe Mountain,
• 10:44
  one of their,
• 10:45
  you know,
• 10:45
  nuclear sites,
• 10:46
  which could eventually become the hardest target that the US faces in Iran
• 10:51
  in terms of how hardened it is,
• 10:53
  how difficult it is to damage
• 10:55
  that underground facility if they complete it.
• 10:58
  And
• 10:59
  you know,
• 10:59
  so I think.
• 11:02
  The cynic in me says that I don't think we do have
• 11:04
  the patience to ride it out
• 11:06
  because
• 11:08
  the public,
• 11:09
  I think they hear the arguments about why it's important.
• 11:13
  But then they go fill up their tank of gas.
• 11:15
  Um,
• 11:16
  and
• 11:17
  that's a problem.
• 11:19
  So,
• 11:19
  I'm not sure that we're going to have the patience,
• 11:21
  uh,
• 11:22
  to,
• 11:22
  to ride this out.
• 11:23
  And from my perspective,
• 11:25
  again,
• 11:25
  I don't know that you can call it a win
• 11:27
  if we end up with an open straight,
• 11:30
  but the same leadership in place in,
• 11:31
  in Iran,
• 11:33
  uh,
• 11:33
  and we've kicked the can down the road at some point
• 11:35
  because they're not going to give up,
• 11:37
  uh,
• 11:38
  their
• 11:39
  nuclear ambitions,
• 11:40
  I don't believe.
• 11:41
  It's good that you rounded the bases and brought
• 11:43
  in the nuclear element and also the American public
• 11:46
  because it is all absolutely connected,
• 11:48
  you know.
• 11:48
  The Islamic Republic is fighting the war in the American living room.
• 11:51
  It's fighting the war
• 11:52
  at the American pump.
• 11:54
  Yes,
• 11:54
  gas has increased.
• 11:55
  Yes,
• 11:55
  a 6575 cent increase in the standard.
• 12:00
  You know,
• 12:00
  the price that Americans were used to paying will have an effect.
• 12:03
  It will have an effect on the budget.
• 12:04
  It will have an effect on families.
• 12:06
  It has had an effect.
• 12:07
  Uh,
• 12:08
  I should say,
• 12:09
  but
• 12:09
  you know,
• 12:09
  zooming out,
• 12:10
  looking at Iran's enablers,
• 12:11
  Russia and China,
• 12:13
  and look at all the people who are anti the Iran war,
• 12:15
  were pro,
• 12:16
  you know,
• 12:17
  containing the CCP and defending Taiwan.
• 12:19
  Heaven help us if we just signaled to the Islamic Republic,
• 12:23
  uh,
• 12:23
  that we couldn't even handle that socially,
• 12:25
  that social change,
• 12:26
  65% increase
• 12:28
  in the price of gas.
• 12:29
  What do you think when there's a supply shortage,
• 12:31
  uh,
• 12:32
  it'll be like in a larger conflict.
• 12:33
  With the Chinese.
• 12:34
  I mean,
• 12:34
  we saw President Trump converted all of Washington,
• 12:37
  left,
• 12:37
  right and center
• 12:38
  in term one to become a China hawk.
• 12:40
  But now he seems to be pumping the brakes on China a little bit
• 12:43
  in term two because of all of that economic enmeshment,
• 12:47
  uh,
• 12:47
  that you're talking about.
• 12:48
  So,
• 12:48
  the patrons in Beijing understand it,
• 12:51
  uh,
• 12:51
  the junior partners uh in Tehran
• 12:53
  understand it,
• 12:54
  and we have the balance of capability on our side,
• 12:56
  but if we don't have the resolve,
• 12:58
  if we don't
• 12:59
  on this.
• 12:59
  Eve of the anniversary of 9/11,
• 13:01
  remember what these things are all about.
• 13:03
  Before 9/11,
• 13:04
  it was an Iran-backed proxy group
• 13:06
  that had killed the most Americans.
• 13:07
  After 9/11,
• 13:08
  it was the IRGC in Iraq
• 13:11
  via the Shia militias killing more and more American service persons
• 13:14
  and members of the international coalition.
• 13:16
  We've got to remember all of this.
• 13:17
  If this is what they're acting like when they're weak,
• 13:20
  imagine what they will be acting like when they're strong.
• 13:22
  So
• 13:23
  you know,
• 13:23
  you began the conversation with something about regime.
• 13:25
  Change and that you hope this is the president's goal.
• 13:28
  I still don't know if I can say that it is,
• 13:30
  but certainly if anyone will bring Donald Trump to recognize that,
• 13:34
  it won't be you or me.
• 13:36
  It won't be the United Nations.
• 13:37
  It won't be Israel.
• 13:38
  It won't be the Arabs in the region.
• 13:40
  It will be nothing other than the behavior of the Islamic Republic itself
• 13:43
  that will push President Trump,
• 13:45
  who has wanted to be dealmaker in chief,
• 13:47
  more into embracing the commander in chief position
• 13:50
  than anyone else.
• 13:53
  I can't believe,
• 13:54
  Benham,
• 13:54
  that you don't think it's you and me that will change that perspective.
• 13:57
  I think
• 13:58
  I think
• 13:59
  you're selling yourselves short there.
• 14:01
  Let me ask you a real quick question.
• 14:02
  The time that we have left,
• 14:03
  Benham,
• 14:05
  tell me,
• 14:06
  how serious do you believe the flare up in fighting is in Yemen
• 14:10
  between the Houthis,
• 14:11
  the Iran-backed Houthis,
• 14:13
  and the Saudi-backed government
• 14:15
  forces?
• 14:15
  I think
• 14:16
  it's absolutely serious.
• 14:17
  It's absolutely significant.
• 14:19
  I'm glad
• 14:20
  the Saudi forces are partnering with local Yemeni.
• 14:23
  to push back on the Houthis.
• 14:24
  The Houthis landed some pretty,
• 14:25
  pretty damning blows against southern southern Saudi Arabia just a few days ago.
• 14:30
  It's critical that as the regime is being boxed in from all sides,
• 14:33
  the proxies feel the same pressure as well.
• 14:36
  So kudos to the Saudis and also to the
• 14:38
  US diplomatically for holding the line and supporting them.
• 14:41
  Benham,
• 14:42
  thank you very much for joining us today here on the PDB Situation Report.
• 14:46
  Benham Bentalablu Foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Iran Program.
• 14:50
  Thank you.
• 14:51
  All right.
• 14:52
  Coming up next,
• 14:53
  we'll look at reports that the Pentagon
• 14:55
  is considering a smaller US military footprint in the Middle East
• 14:59
  once the Iran conflict wraps up.
• 15:01
  We'll be joined by Steve Yates of the Heritage Foundation
• 15:04
  for more on what could come next.
• 15:06
  Stay with us.
• 15:08
  Hey,
• 15:08
  Mike Baker here.
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• 16:08
  Welcome back to the Situation Report.
• 16:11
  This week is the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
• 16:15
  Obviously an event that reshaped America's military presence,
• 16:19
  reshaped America,
• 16:21
  but the military presence across the Middle East for a generation.
• 16:24
  Now there are signs that the Pentagon is considering
• 16:28
  what that presence,
• 16:29
  what that footprint should look like
• 16:31
  once the war with Iran is over,
• 16:33
  whenever that may be.
• 16:35
  According to recent reports,
• 16:36
  military and intelligence officials are discussing a
• 16:39
  smaller permanent footprint in the region,
• 16:41
  potentially reducing troops and facilities
• 16:44
  while relying more heavily on hardened bases and forces
• 16:47
  that can move in when needed.
• 16:49
  No decisions have yet been made.
• 16:52
  For more on this,
• 16:53
  let me bring in Steve Yates.
• 16:54
  You know him,
• 16:55
  you love him.
• 16:55
  He's the former deputy national security advisor to the vice president,
• 16:59
  senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
• 17:01
  And the host,
• 17:02
  get this,
• 17:03
  of the newest addition to the Clay Travis,
• 17:04
  who is he?
• 17:05
  And Buck Sexton what?
• 17:07
  Podcast Network,
• 17:08
  Nation States
• 17:09
  with Yates.
• 17:10
  They were originally gonna go with the Steve Yates Comedy Hour,
• 17:12
  but they've gone with Nation States with Yates.
• 17:14
  And if you're not listening,
• 17:15
  I have no idea what you're doing with your time.
• 17:17
  Steve,
• 17:18
  welcome back
• 17:19
  to the Situation Report.
• 17:20
  It's always great to see you.
• 17:21
  Well,
• 17:21
  with that,
• 17:22
  what can I say but thank you,
• 17:23
  Mike.
• 17:23
  It's great to be with you.
• 17:25
  Yeah,
• 17:26
  yeah.
• 17:26
  Do you still,
• 17:27
  I did,
• 17:27
  let me ask you this is sort of a personal question,
• 17:29
  but do you still hate Buck Sexton?
• 17:32
  I'm just jealous of the full head of hair he has,
• 17:35
  uh,
• 17:36
  but,
• 17:36
  uh,
• 17:36
  that has been a,
• 17:37
  it is a head of hair,
• 17:39
  yeah.
• 17:41
  And you know,
• 17:42
  he's got,
• 17:42
  he's got kind of,
• 17:43
  you know,
• 17:43
  the kind of people that we like to talk to.
• 17:45
  He's got pretty quick wit.
• 17:47
  He's got pretty sharp judge of,
• 17:49
  of who,
• 17:49
  who's got it,
• 17:50
  who doesn't,
• 17:51
  who doesn't got it.
• 17:52
  Uh,
• 17:52
  so I always,
• 17:53
  always like the conversations with Buck.
• 17:55
  He's been,
• 17:55
  he's been a good friend and I'm grateful for the,
• 17:57
  uh,
• 17:57
  for the opportunity.
• 17:58
  And he brought the three of us together in,
• 18:00
  in,
• 18:00
  uh,
• 18:01
  in Idaho at times,
• 18:01
  which is one of my all-time favorite,
• 18:03
  uh,
• 18:04
  picks.
• 18:05
  The only time I was with two former CIA guys and lived to talk about it.
• 18:11
  Yeah.
• 18:11
  Yeah,
• 18:12
  I remember that.
• 18:12
  I think Buck woke up on the,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:14
  the side of the highway,
• 18:15
  uh,
• 18:15
  that next morning.
• 18:17
  Um,
• 18:18
  yeah,
• 18:18
  his car was parked in my front yard.
• 18:20
  I have no idea what was going on.
• 18:21
  But listen,
• 18:22
  Steve,
• 18:23
  thank you again for coming on and,
• 18:24
  and,
• 18:25
  uh,
• 18:26
  we're kind of at that
• 18:27
  point that I,
• 18:28
  I don't know that any of us really saw,
• 18:30
  saw coming this quickly.
• 18:31
  25 years on
• 18:33
  from 9/11.
• 18:34
  I,
• 18:35
  it's just,
• 18:35
  it,
• 18:35
  I mean,
• 18:36
  I,
• 18:36
  I think to you and me and to a lot of people and,
• 18:39
  and certainly people in our
• 18:41
  Age bracket and with some of our backgrounds,
• 18:44
  it,
• 18:45
  it was in the blink of an eye,
• 18:46
  right?
• 18:47
  It's just
• 18:48
  gone so
• 18:49
  quickly.
• 18:50
  Um,
• 18:51
  but there's this talk
• 18:53
  about,
• 18:53
  as there always is,
• 18:54
  every time the anniversary rolls around,
• 18:56
  there's always a talk about are we in a better place?
• 18:59
  Uh,
• 18:59
  are we as a nation more secure than we were on 9/11?
• 19:03
  Um,
• 19:04
  I wanna broaden that out because now they're,
• 19:06
  they're talking about,
• 19:07
  OK,
• 19:07
  once this conflict with Iran ends in whatever fashion it ends,
• 19:11
  you know,
• 19:12
  uh,
• 19:12
  uh,
• 19:12
  do we have the same need for the profile,
• 19:14
  for the footprint in the Middle East that we've had for
• 19:17
  a very long time,
• 19:19
  to be,
• 19:19
  to be fair.
• 19:21
  Uh,
• 19:21
  what's your assessment?
• 19:22
  Let's,
• 19:23
  let's start from,
• 19:23
  I guess,
• 19:23
  30,000 ft and drill down.
• 19:26
  Yeah,
• 19:26
  well,
• 19:26
  I mean,
• 19:27
  I think there's a couple of big things.
• 19:28
  I mean it does shock me that it's been 25 years.
• 19:31
  I'm not nearly old enough for it to have been 25 years from,
• 19:34
  from that event.
• 19:36
  Uh,
• 19:36
  I was,
• 19:37
  uh,
• 19:37
  a 30-something in the White House,
• 19:39
  uh,
• 19:40
  just trying to do my thing,
• 19:41
  trying to figure out how that place worked.
• 19:43
  Don't know that I ever figured that out,
• 19:44
  uh,
• 19:45
  but I saw a lot.
• 19:46
  Uh,
• 19:46
  it certainly changed my life in,
• 19:48
  in some pretty significant ways.
• 19:50
  Uh,
• 19:50
  but when I think of that passage of time,
• 19:52
  one of the big takeaways is
• 19:53
  we've had a national obsession
• 19:56
  with what happened after 9/11,
• 19:58
  and that has had a huge impact on our politics,
• 20:02
  on the debate about our military.
• 20:04
  The perception of
• 20:06
  wars and basing overseas,
• 20:08
  uh,
• 20:08
  but what has been lost
• 20:11
  is the visceral reality
• 20:13
  that,
• 20:13
  uh,
• 20:13
  you and I have lived.
• 20:14
  I mean,
• 20:15
  the world
• 20:16
  is not exactly born good.
• 20:17
  There's a lot of evil in the world,
• 20:19
  and we need big,
• 20:21
  bad,
• 20:22
  strong tools out there
• 20:23
  to keep that evil at bay.
• 20:26
  And the fact that that evil could reach out and touch us in a profound way
• 20:30
  that really shocked all of us,
• 20:32
  I think at a very visceral level,
• 20:36
  about 25 years ago on September 11th,
• 20:38
  that sort of has faded,
• 20:40
  and yet the reality is today
• 20:42
  we're still concerned that the Iranians have people
• 20:45
  in our country that could be engaged in
• 20:47
  Nefarious activities we have cartels
• 20:50
  that can engage in terroristic like activity at
• 20:52
  a moment's notice with almost nothing we could do
• 20:56
  to stop it from happening we'd just be having to try to react after it happened,
• 21:00
  uh,
• 21:01
  and so I in some ways.
• 21:02
  We are better,
• 21:04
  I think just because technology is better,
• 21:06
  uh,
• 21:06
  we do have some institutions that have been trained to do a bit more,
• 21:11
  uh,
• 21:11
  in 2026 than we did in 2001,
• 21:14
  but in other ways
• 21:16
  I think we've,
• 21:16
  we've kind of had this
• 21:19
  holiday from history kind of thing where we have a whole generation
• 21:22
  that has grown without any of that shock or reality check that we got,
• 21:27
  uh,
• 21:28
  and so,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:29
  my,
• 21:29
  my,
• 21:29
  uh,
• 21:30
  advice to.
• 21:31
  To anybody who's willing to listen is,
• 21:33
  uh,
• 21:33
  don't outsource memory.
• 21:35
  Uh,
• 21:35
  if you lived it,
• 21:36
  you oral histories are the only way we can pass it to another generation
• 21:41
  and,
• 21:41
  and give it with the emotion and truth that you lived and felt.
• 21:45
  Uh,
• 21:46
  because it was,
• 21:47
  it was,
• 21:47
  it was just a powerful thing.
• 21:48
  You know,
• 21:48
  I,
• 21:49
  I was evacuated out of the White House,
• 21:51
  uh,
• 21:52
  which,
• 21:52
  uh,
• 21:52
  you know,
• 21:52
  I,
• 21:53
  I felt like that was a,
• 21:54
  a,
• 21:54
  a really violation,
• 21:55
  a sensitive violation of a sacred place.
• 21:58
  You know,
• 21:59
  America should never be under attack to the point
• 22:00
  where you've gotta walk home from the White House.
• 22:03
  Uh,
• 22:03
  but at the same time,
• 22:04
  we listen to good for you though,
• 22:05
  but good for you,
• 22:06
  good,
• 22:07
  good for you.
• 22:07
  That you were important enough to be evacuated.
• 22:09
  I mean,
• 22:09
  if they had left you there,
• 22:11
  well,
• 22:11
  I,
• 22:11
  I joke about the wrong message
• 22:13
  fly zone and the no-fry zone.
• 22:15
  There's a really short list of people that
• 22:17
  are truly essential for continuity of government,
• 22:19
  and they go into the no-fry zone.
• 22:21
  And everyone else like me had an amazing badge,
• 22:24
  had a pin,
• 22:25
  you could go anywhere,
• 22:25
  you had all these privileges.
• 22:27
  It's walk your bones home.
• 22:29
  And we'll,
• 22:30
  we'll see if we see it.
• 22:31
  Uh,
• 22:32
  and that was,
• 22:32
  I think that's the humbling thing that you,
• 22:34
  that really we should all have,
• 22:37
  uh,
• 22:37
  that
• 22:38
  very,
• 22:38
  very few of us are truly essential,
• 22:41
  and are,
• 22:42
  most of us are on the list of replaceable if necessary.
• 22:46
  Uh,
• 22:46
  and if you operate that way,
• 22:47
  you're probably gonna be a better person.
• 22:48
  But that was,
• 22:49
  that was
• 22:50
  a huge,
• 22:50
  huge takeaway.
• 22:51
  But the other one was President Bush.
• 22:53
  Uh,
• 22:54
  the,
• 22:54
  the morning of September 12th,
• 22:55
  he stood outside,
• 22:57
  sort of the greasy spoon on the bottom of the EEOB.
• 23:00
  I had my 6 a.m.
• 23:01
  intel briefing,
• 23:02
  went down to get my sugar high for the day to try to keep going,
• 23:06
  and the president of the United States was just standing there,
• 23:09
  uh,
• 23:09
  one by one,
• 23:10
  taking as much time as was needed with like 100 or so,
• 23:14
  just ordinary staff.
• 23:15
  It was a mix of some people who did policy
• 23:17
  and some people who just logistics work in the building.
• 23:20
  But he prayed with them,
• 23:21
  he hugged them,
• 23:22
  just talked with them,
• 23:24
  and I just sort of in that moment,
• 23:25
  I felt like he was
• 23:27
  drawing
• 23:28
  from all of these people in prayers,
• 23:31
  because the weight of this was just way too much for a human being to carry.
• 23:36
  And that's just stuck with me no matter what anyone thought about George W.
• 23:39
  Bush or his policies after that,
• 23:41
  and I could pick
• 23:42
  bones with some of the policies that came after that.
• 23:45
  I will never ever forget and I will never diminish
• 23:48
  what I thought I saw in the character of the man
• 23:50
  who knew he had to rely on God and he had to stand on the shoulders of everyone else
• 23:57
  if he was going to carry that,
• 23:58
  and we should want more leaders like that.
• 24:01
  Yeah,
• 24:01
  I,
• 24:01
  I think,
• 24:02
  you know,
• 24:02
  whether you're a Democrat or Republican,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:04
  he's always gotten a little bit of short shrift,
• 24:06
  uh,
• 24:07
  for
• 24:08
  people not understanding just what a nice,
• 24:09
  genuine
• 24:10
  gentleman he is.
• 24:11
  What a nice guy
• 24:13
  he is,
• 24:14
  what a regular person he is.
• 24:16
  Um,
• 24:16
  but
• 24:18
  look,
• 24:18
  I,
• 24:18
  I think,
• 24:19
  to your point about,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:21
  about sort of maintaining
• 24:23
  the,
• 24:24
  the memory,
• 24:24
  however you want to refer to it,
• 24:26
  the understanding of the impact of,
• 24:27
  of that day,
• 24:29
  um,
• 24:30
  It,
• 24:31
  it is
• 24:32
  just the natural order of things.
• 24:33
  I mean,
• 24:34
  we,
• 24:34
  you know,
• 24:34
  no matter what the event is,
• 24:35
  Pearl Harbor,
• 24:36
  right?
• 24:37
  Eventually that became ancient history.
• 24:39
  Uh,
• 24:39
  so every event
• 24:41
  does start to,
• 24:42
  that just,
• 24:42
  you,
• 24:42
  you can't help it.
• 24:43
  It does start to fade.
• 24:44
  You do what you can to explain,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:46
  but people experienced it in different ways.
• 24:48
  My oldest child,
• 24:49
  you know,
• 24:50
  uh,
• 24:50
  my daughter,
• 24:51
  great,
• 24:51
  great person.
• 24:52
  Uh,
• 24:53
  she was,
• 24:54
  um,
• 24:54
  7 at the time.
• 24:55
  So
• 24:56
  she experienced that.
• 24:59
  More in the sense of growing up
• 25:02
  through the teen years and,
• 25:03
  and beyond through the global war on terror,
• 25:05
  right?
• 25:05
  The aftermath
• 25:06
  of that.
• 25:08
  And
• 25:08
  so there,
• 25:09
  there,
• 25:09
  there were different ways that people experience this
• 25:12
  in addition to just being there in the moment.
• 25:14
  Um,
• 25:15
  but
• 25:16
  It is,
• 25:16
  it is stunning.
• 25:17
  I,
• 25:18
  you know,
• 25:18
  I guess we all think that as we get older,
• 25:20
  uh,
• 25:20
  young folks don't get it
• 25:22
  necessarily,
• 25:22
  nor should they,
• 25:24
  how quickly
• 25:25
  time,
• 25:25
  time moves.
• 25:26
  Uh,
• 25:27
  let me ask you about the,
• 25:28
  this,
• 25:29
  this question though about the,
• 25:30
  the Middle East and
• 25:31
  what should it look like,
• 25:32
  um,
• 25:33
  once the conflict with Iran
• 25:36
  wraps up again in
• 25:37
  whatever fashion that might be.
• 25:39
  What do you think?
• 25:41
  Our profile should look like?
• 25:43
  What should be the US footprint
• 25:45
  in the region,
• 25:47
  uh,
• 25:47
  again,
• 25:47
  once we get off this wartime footing?
• 25:50
  Yeah,
• 25:51
  well,
• 25:51
  I think there's some important questions
• 25:53
  that any responsible leader should answer
• 25:55
  before you start getting into
• 25:57
  how much do we need of what kinds of things in what places.
• 26:01
  Uh,
• 26:01
  first of those things would be,
• 26:04
  has the nature of warfare really changed?
• 26:07
  Uh,
• 26:07
  I mean,
• 26:07
  do we have kind of a different requirement set?
• 26:10
  The kind of conflict we've had with Iran is wildly
• 26:13
  different than the kind of conflict we had with Iraq,
• 26:16
  which is also wildly different from
• 26:18
  the land invasion to liberate Kuwait.
• 26:21
  I mean we had
• 26:22
  600,000 personnel
• 26:26
  in theater at the time of the first Gulf War.
• 26:29
  At the peak of the Iraq surge,
• 26:31
  it was half that.
• 26:33
  And we're now sort of in the 50,000 range.
• 26:36
  Uh,
• 26:37
  today,
• 26:38
  uh,
• 26:38
  courtesy of what Secretary Besset has unleashed,
• 26:40
  we have
• 26:41
  explicitly a lot more big financial tools
• 26:46
  that in an,
• 26:47
  in an era where there's dependencies,
• 26:49
  even an oil rich country like Iran has dependencies,
• 26:52
  uh,
• 26:53
  and there's a little bit more that could be
• 26:55
  done to pinch things with some of those tools,
• 26:57
  and a lot of the strikes we've had.
• 27:00
  were from distance by air or from platforms at sea that move
• 27:04
  and so
• 27:06
  whether you have fixed targets in what number I think is a reasonable question.
• 27:10
  And then
• 27:11
  some of these countries in the region have modernized significantly.
• 27:15
  I mean the United Arab Emirates
• 27:17
  is wildly different in 2026 than it was in 1991
• 27:22
  in the first Gulf War.
• 27:23
  And so what should we have has to be informed,
• 27:26
  I think,
• 27:26
  by
• 27:27
  What are the real lessons that we've,
• 27:29
  we've gone through in this conflict?
• 27:32
  Uh,
• 27:32
  what has really changed and what's sort of temporary?
• 27:35
  I don't think we go to zero.
• 27:36
  I don't think we close out our basing,
• 27:38
  but burden sharing is more of a real thing
• 27:41
  now and going forward than it's been before.
• 27:43
  Uh,
• 27:44
  we have
• 27:45
  two carrier battle groups in theater now if my counting is right,
• 27:49
  we'll probably go back to one,
• 27:51
  maybe one that floats back out and back in,
• 27:53
  I don't know.
• 27:55
  Uh,
• 27:55
  but that's not a,
• 27:56
  that's not a night and day change.
• 27:58
  Uh,
• 27:59
  so I think,
• 27:59
  but I think that there's reasonable question.
• 28:02
  Uh,
• 28:02
  we,
• 28:02
  you know,
• 28:02
  we,
• 28:03
  we've had
• 28:03
  fewer than 20 fatalities in this conflict over half a year,
• 28:07
  and while one is too many,
• 28:09
  that's just wildly low compared to anything that,
• 28:13
  that's been a sustained conflict.
• 28:15
  We'd all,
• 28:15
  if you'd had training for 6 full months,
• 28:17
  we might have had that kind of a casualty rate.
• 28:20
  Uh,
• 28:20
  and so all these things have to factor into
• 28:23
  what do we put,
• 28:24
  where and what number.
• 28:26
  Uh,
• 28:26
  so I expect it to go down some,
• 28:28
  but not anywhere
• 28:30
  close to zero
• 28:31
  and not a withdrawal.
• 28:32
  It's not one of these things where you close up shop
• 28:34
  in the Middle East and everything goes to Asia or home.
• 28:37
  Yeah,
• 28:37
  no,
• 28:37
  that's,
• 28:38
  and that's an extremely important point because we do sometimes
• 28:40
  talk about these decisions as if they're gonna happen overnight.
• 28:43
  Um,
• 28:43
  and you're talking about massive logistical changes,
• 28:47
  uh,
• 28:48
  whether it's shutting facilities,
• 28:49
  rebuilding bases,
• 28:51
  whatever it may be.
• 28:52
  Uh,
• 28:52
  Steve,
• 28:53
  uh,
• 28:53
  if you'll stay right where you are,
• 28:55
  don't go anywhere because that would be odd.
• 28:57
  Uh,
• 28:58
  we'll be right back after this quick break.
• 29:00
  We have more with Steve Yates.
• 29:02
  And don't forget,
• 29:03
  he's got a podcast out there that's terrific.
• 29:05
  It's called Nation States with Yeats.
• 29:07
  See?
• 29:08
  It's alliterative almost.
• 29:09
  I don't know if I know the meaning of alliterative.
• 29:11
  Hm.
• 29:12
  Anyway,
• 29:12
  we'll be back.
• 29:13
  Stick around.
• 29:15
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 29:18
  Joining us once again is Steve Yates,
• 29:20
  senior research fellow for China and national
• 29:22
  security policy at the Heritage Foundation.
• 29:24
  He is also host of the new podcast,
• 29:27
  Nation States with Yates.
• 29:29
  Mm.
• 29:31
  I,
• 29:31
  I,
• 29:31
  I,
• 29:32
  I don't know why people aren't,
• 29:33
  uh,
• 29:33
  you know,
• 29:34
  if,
• 29:34
  if they don't know that already,
• 29:36
  they're just,
• 29:36
  they're,
• 29:37
  they're sleeping on the job,
• 29:38
  Steve.
• 29:38
  It,
• 29:39
  you,
• 29:39
  you really have put together a really,
• 29:41
  really
• 29:42
  solid podcast,
• 29:43
  and I,
• 29:43
  I,
• 29:44
  again,
• 29:44
  Nation States with Yates,
• 29:45
  I reckon,
• 29:45
  but where can people find it?
• 29:48
  Well,
• 29:48
  as they say wherever you find your podcasts,
• 29:50
  if you're so inclined,
• 29:51
  the iHeartRadio app is free and you can get video if you really want to see my mug.
• 29:56
  Or you can just listen to my audio,
• 29:58
  uh,
• 29:58
  but,
• 29:59
  uh,
• 29:59
  I,
• 29:59
  you know,
• 30:00
  people can go ahead and
• 30:01
  sign up that way or Apple,
• 30:03
  Spotify,
• 30:03
  all the,
• 30:04
  all the different vehicles you can download the episodes,
• 30:07
  and that's kind of what puts wind beneath our wings and let's,
• 30:09
  let's us know that people are out there interested and
• 30:12
  helps me have the,
• 30:14
  the resources and wherewithal to try to
• 30:16
  address the issues as we like to say,
• 30:18
  we're,
• 30:18
  we're,
• 30:19
  we're there to try to explain
• 30:21
  some of these tougher issues in the world so
• 30:22
  they can feel comfortable engaging in meaningful conversations about
• 30:26
  The things that will affect the fate of our nation-state,
• 30:28
  and nation-states are at the heart of this
• 30:30
  sort of rebalancing back to realism,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:33
  and so rather than taking a foreign policy seminar,
• 30:36
  we have,
• 30:37
  you know,
• 30:38
  a few half-hour chats per week and hopefully
• 30:40
  people learn something from it and feel comfortable
• 30:43
  in family chats,
• 30:44
  but especially with the people we elect to represent
• 30:46
  us and talking about the stuff that affects us.
• 30:48
  Well,
• 30:49
  I,
• 30:49
  I couldn't have said it better.
• 30:51
  Hey,
• 30:51
  let's,
• 30:52
  let's,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  let's go back to,
• 30:53
  to this,
• 30:54
  what we're talking about because I am fascinated by this
• 30:57
  idea
• 30:58
  of,
• 30:59
  um,
• 30:59
  recalibrating
• 31:01
  our
• 31:02
  focus with the Middle East,
• 31:03
  right?
• 31:04
  And I,
• 31:04
  you raised a very important point,
• 31:05
  which is a lot of the,
• 31:06
  the
• 31:07
  Gulf allies have,
• 31:09
  have
• 31:09
  modernized,
• 31:10
  right?
• 31:10
  They're,
• 31:11
  they're now,
• 31:11
  you know,
• 31:12
  in the same position in terms of their own defense
• 31:14
  that they were 20 years ago,
• 31:16
  25 years ago.
• 31:17
  Uh,
• 31:19
  Now,
• 31:19
  you could also argue
• 31:21
  that,
• 31:23
  you know,
• 31:23
  and I'd I'd love your opinion on this cause I'm not sure if I have a question here,
• 31:25
  so just jump in,
• 31:27
  is
• 31:28
  after 9/11,
• 31:30
  We,
• 31:31
  we did the right thing,
• 31:33
  right?
• 31:33
  We went in,
• 31:34
  Tora Borum
• 31:35
  is a solid example of that.
• 31:37
  You go in,
• 31:38
  you
• 31:40
  Create mayhem,
• 31:41
  chaos,
• 31:42
  you take out
• 31:43
  targets
• 31:44
  of high value,
• 31:46
  uh,
• 31:47
  and then
• 31:48
  I would argue
• 31:49
  we
• 31:50
  kind of lost our way,
• 31:52
  right,
• 31:52
  with,
• 31:52
  with,
• 31:53
  uh,
• 31:54
  With Afghanistan
• 31:56
  Uh,
• 31:56
  in particular where we,
• 31:57
  we felt,
• 31:58
  I think,
• 31:59
  still guilty,
• 32:01
  uh,
• 32:01
  about leaving.
• 32:03
  Early in letting the Soviet Union
• 32:05
  have their way with Afghanistan.
• 32:06
  So there were some,
• 32:08
  what do you call them neo-cons,
• 32:09
  I kind of hate that term,
• 32:10
  but there were folks who
• 32:12
  I think still felt,
• 32:13
  look,
• 32:13
  if we hadn't left,
• 32:14
  we wouldn't have had this problem
• 32:16
  really at all,
• 32:17
  to begin with.
• 32:18
  And so we stayed,
• 32:20
  and we do what we always do,
• 32:21
  which is,
• 32:21
  I think,
• 32:23
  a lot of people will scoff at this,
• 32:24
  but I think we as a nation,
• 32:26
  regardless of which administration,
• 32:27
  we try to do the right thing.
• 32:29
  It's a human endeavor,
• 32:29
  so we do make some mistakes.
• 32:31
  We try to then self-correct.
• 32:32
  Uh,
• 32:33
  but we tried to do the right thing
• 32:35
  and we ended up staying
• 32:37
  for an ungodly amount of time
• 32:38
  trying to sell.
• 32:40
  The Afghans,
• 32:41
  something that they really
• 32:42
  never did understand.
• 32:45
  And so,
• 32:47
  I,
• 32:48
  I guess where I'm going with that is
• 32:50
  after we finish this situation with Iran,
• 32:53
  From your perspective and all the time you've spent in Washington and,
• 32:56
  and what you know about how these organizations,
• 32:58
  the agencies,
• 32:59
  the departments,
• 33:00
  the White House works.
• 33:02
  Do you think
• 33:03
  that there's any chance that there will be a meaningful
• 33:06
  uh drawdown
• 33:07
  in our position in the Middle East
• 33:09
  given how long
• 33:11
  we've been there?
• 33:13
  Well,
• 33:13
  I think the,
• 33:14
  the era of the interesting framing because I think
• 33:16
  uh there are a couple of both sides of
• 33:18
  this actually really apply if there's gonna be what
• 33:20
  I would consider to be a rational readjustment or
• 33:23
  sort of a reality check coming through this.
• 33:25
  On the one hand,
• 33:26
  I don't think that we're gonna draw down
• 33:28
  as much as people might imagine,
• 33:30
  in part because we haven't amped up as much as people might have imagined.
• 33:34
  I mean people still think of this
• 33:36
  as are we inching towards Iraq 2.0 and we're we're just
• 33:40
  nowhere in the same arena
• 33:42
  of that.
• 33:43
  Uh,
• 33:43
  but what I think the key question is what will be required
• 33:46
  after
• 33:47
  the perception of major military operations are over.
• 33:50
  Now,
• 33:51
  in my view,
• 33:52
  the reality of major military operations are already over.
• 33:55
  We are in what I consider to be somewhat of a maintenance position
• 33:59
  at this point.
• 34:00
  We do not have boots on the ground in Iran,
• 34:02
  and we're
• 34:02
  unlikely to have
• 34:04
  boots on the ground in Iran,
• 34:05
  in my estimation.
• 34:06
  We have enough force to respond
• 34:09
  at any time or circumstance of
• 34:11
  Choosing,
• 34:11
  and I think we're still going to have force in theater to be able to respond
• 34:16
  in a time and manner of our choosing,
• 34:18
  whether it is
• 34:20
  to wax
• 34:21
  the nuclear sites,
• 34:22
  if we sense that there's a sort of a restart of activity.
• 34:27
  If
• 34:28
  the Iranians were to launch,
• 34:31
  then we get the launchers,
• 34:32
  but we also hit some oil because we're going to hit them
• 34:34
  in the pocketbook just at the same time as we hit them
• 34:37
  with where the capability is coming from.
• 34:39
  But that's more of a maintenance mission.
• 34:41
  It's not.
• 34:42
  I want,
• 34:43
  I want,
• 34:43
  I want to interrupt just for a second,
• 34:44
  um,
• 34:45
  because,
• 34:46
  well,
• 34:46
  you know me,
• 34:46
  if I,
• 34:47
  if I don't jump in when I have a thought
• 34:50
  and that's cool,
• 34:50
  um.
• 34:52
  Yeah,
• 34:52
  well,
• 34:53
  uh,
• 34:54
  I appreciate you,
• 34:55
  you saying that,
• 34:56
  um.
• 34:57
  Look at that.
• 34:58
  I've already forgotten why I interrupted you.
• 34:59
  No,
• 34:59
  I'm kidding.
• 35:00
  You,
• 35:00
  you mentioned if we have to go in and,
• 35:02
  and,
• 35:02
  and whack a,
• 35:03
  a nuclear site.
• 35:04
  Um,
• 35:05
  what are you hearing?
• 35:06
  Because
• 35:07
  there have been just over the past 24,
• 35:09
  48 hours,
• 35:10
  there have been
• 35:10
  some reports that seem credible
• 35:12
  about the accelerated work at Pickaxe Mountain,
• 35:16
  obviously.
• 35:16
  So what are you hearing about that?
• 35:19
  Yeah,
• 35:19
  well,
• 35:19
  I hear the same sort of murmurings,
• 35:21
  of course,
• 35:22
  I don't have the technical capability from Yates headquarters in
• 35:25
  the greater Tampa area here to sort of sniff out
• 35:28
  what's true or false,
• 35:29
  uh,
• 35:29
  over there on this stuff,
• 35:30
  and I don't ever want to be close enough to
• 35:32
  a major nuclear site to do the testing myself.
• 35:34
  You might get a third arm or something like that.
• 35:36
  Things like that.
• 35:37
  But,
• 35:38
  uh,
• 35:38
  I do think that basically we look at what we did,
• 35:41
  you have a choice.
• 35:42
  You can go the old route of trying to negotiate
• 35:45
  and have the IAEA and SNAP inspections,
• 35:48
  and if you have a permissive
• 35:49
  environment,
• 35:50
  you can have this monitoring regime that gives you some degree of confidence.
• 35:54
  That the genie's in the bottle.
• 35:56
  Uh,
• 35:56
  but if you don't feel like you have that at hand,
• 35:59
  and I don't under the current leadership in Iran,
• 36:01
  we'll never have that.
• 36:03
  Uh,
• 36:03
  and so the alternative is,
• 36:05
  then we,
• 36:06
  we flew bombers from the middle of continental United States
• 36:10
  and devastated that site,
• 36:12
  and we're back in the United States before anyone
• 36:15
  knew what had happened and before we admitted we did anything.
• 36:18
  Uh,
• 36:19
  and so having that capability means
• 36:22
  we're going to either
• 36:24
  Have a change in that leadership where it's more
• 36:26
  permissive and maybe international bodies can do that.
• 36:29
  It's
• 36:30
  above 0,
• 36:31
  but not likely in,
• 36:32
  in my view,
• 36:33
  or we're gonna mow the lawn.
• 36:35
  And then mowing that lawn
• 36:36
  hopefully will be less expensive
• 36:39
  over time,
• 36:40
  but it's kind of one of those rules that only United States can do it.
• 36:42
  And that's the other side of the coin
• 36:44
  on what,
• 36:45
  what do we have by way of drawdown.
• 36:47
  Uh,
• 36:48
  I think The,
• 36:48
  the biggest lesson for me in the post
• 36:51
  9/11 military mistake category
• 36:54
  is the infamous pottery barn analogy,
• 36:57
  that if you break it,
• 36:58
  you own it.
• 36:59
  And Colin Powell was famous for,
• 37:01
  for saying that.
• 37:02
  I think people might have meant well by it and sort of to,
• 37:05
  to use your framing of that earlier.
• 37:07
  But
• 37:08
  it was wrong,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:09
  and I think that the United States has
• 37:11
  awesome power,
• 37:12
  but one reason why you should not want Big Bubba to have to come in and solve a problem
• 37:17
  in your neck of the woods is because we will break things and we will not own it,
• 37:21
  and you will have to clean it up.
• 37:23
  And that is the motivation that makes
• 37:26
  allies in the region have to invest
• 37:29
  in the capabilities and also have to invest
• 37:32
  in trying to avoid circumstances where Big Bubba feels
• 37:34
  like he's got to come in and break something.
• 37:37
  How would you describe
• 37:38
  our
• 37:41
  Our relationship
• 37:42
  with,
• 37:43
  um,
• 37:45
  uh,
• 37:45
  you know,
• 37:45
  whether you want to say allies or partners or
• 37:49
  the,
• 37:49
  the Gulf states,
• 37:50
  however you want to describe it.
• 37:51
  If you,
• 37:52
  if you look at where we were in that region,
• 37:55
  uh,
• 37:56
  say at 9/11,
• 37:57
  25 years ago,
• 37:58
  And,
• 37:59
  and you look at what our relationships were like there.
• 38:03
  Then how would you compare that to where we are now in those same relationships?
• 38:09
  Yeah,
• 38:09
  well they're,
• 38:10
  uh,
• 38:10
  I guess the honest and sort of cop-out answer to that is they're all different,
• 38:15
  but,
• 38:15
  uh,
• 38:16
  you know,
• 38:16
  so if you look at what was the relationship with Israel,
• 38:19
  uh,
• 38:19
  in that time,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:21
  and
• 38:21
  it's it's a different mix of things today,
• 38:24
  back then Israel was kind of our only capable ally.
• 38:28
  That we were relying upon and if you look at what happened in the first Gulf War,
• 38:31
  all those Scuds were going into Israel and we did not have
• 38:35
  effective missile defense.
• 38:36
  A lot of those Scuds got through and there was damage inside Israeli territory.
• 38:40
  Today
• 38:41
  we have thousands of ordnance that goes up into the air
• 38:45
  and most of it,
• 38:46
  most of the time doesn't hit anything of consequence.
• 38:50
  Some gets through and then we have some damage to deal with,
• 38:53
  but we're in a wildly different place in that regard.
• 38:56
  If we look at,
• 38:56
  like I alluded to earlier,
• 38:58
  the UAE at that time
• 39:00
  had minimal capability,
• 39:01
  had tons of Iranians doing things in their own territory,
• 39:05
  but since that time,
• 39:06
  it has become the most outspoken
• 39:09
  definer of what is acceptable political
• 39:12
  rhetoric with regard to Islamism.
• 39:15
  They have outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood.
• 39:17
  They have outlawed the union of mosque and state in a militant way.
• 39:22
  And so we have allies
• 39:24
  who can and will speak with authority
• 39:27
  and backed up with some force
• 39:29
  who have wealth
• 39:31
  to back up those
• 39:32
  kinds of communications and education programs in parts of the world.
• 39:35
  So we have some allies that are super capable.
• 39:37
  And then there's Qatar
• 39:39
  and Qatar's a bit of a mess if you ask me.
• 39:43
  I still am very,
• 39:44
  very sore
• 39:45
  about Al Jazeera's coverage of things in that post 9/11.
• 39:48
  Uh,
• 39:49
  period.
• 39:49
  Uh,
• 39:50
  and,
• 39:50
  and maybe I will,
• 39:51
  I will not recover
• 39:53
  from some of those impressions.
• 39:54
  It's not
• 39:55
  what it was then,
• 39:56
  but it also seems comfortable
• 39:59
  bridging the gap with a lot
• 40:00
  of parts of the world that I don't want to be bridged with,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:05
  and so
• 40:06
  I would say.
• 40:09
  I'm sorry.
• 40:09
  Look,
• 40:10
  I apologize for interrupting again,
• 40:12
  but I would say that
• 40:13
  I would put Qatar,
• 40:14
  this is not a perfect,
• 40:15
  you know,
• 40:16
  statement,
• 40:16
  but I would put Qatar in the same category as Pakistan,
• 40:19
  right?
• 40:20
  Um,
• 40:20
  they are most of the people think of that way because at
• 40:23
  both sides of the fence,
• 40:25
  yes,
• 40:26
  yeah,
• 40:26
  yeah.
• 40:26
  Oh yeah,
• 40:27
  absolutely,
• 40:28
  but what I mean by that is,
• 40:30
  is,
• 40:30
  is.
• 40:31
  They are,
• 40:31
  you,
• 40:32
  I am never surprised
• 40:34
  by anything Pakistan does on one side of the fence or the other,
• 40:37
  right?
• 40:37
  I am,
• 40:38
  it never shocks me to say,
• 40:40
  oh my God,
• 40:40
  you guys are playing with them,
• 40:42
  or you're taking that position.
• 40:44
  Um,
• 40:45
  and,
• 40:45
  and the same with Qatar.
• 40:46
  I,
• 40:46
  you know,
• 40:47
  I,
• 40:47
  it,
• 40:47
  it doesn't,
• 40:48
  you know,
• 40:49
  you say things like,
• 40:49
  well,
• 40:50
  you know,
• 40:50
  they,
• 40:50
  they were hosting,
• 40:51
  You know,
• 40:52
  senior Hamas,
• 40:53
  you know,
• 40:54
  fellows,
• 40:54
  they were hosting senior al-Qaeda person.
• 40:57
  I,
• 40:57
  there's no surprise that's what they do,
• 40:59
  right?
• 40:59
  And we talk out of both sides of your mouth,
• 41:01
  however you put it,
• 41:02
  but it's an imperfect world,
• 41:04
  and you don't necessarily in a real world get to pick and choose
• 41:08
  who you get to deal with.
• 41:09
  You've got to deal with the world as it is.
• 41:12
  Um,
• 41:13
  that's realism.
• 41:14
  me wrapping this whole thing up,
• 41:15
  Steve.
• 41:16
  Yeah,
• 41:16
  um,
• 41:17
  let me ask you this last question,
• 41:19
  uh,
• 41:19
  to be mindful of time.
• 41:21
  I don't want to make this trite,
• 41:23
  uh,
• 41:23
  but it's 25 years on.
• 41:26
  Uh,
• 41:26
  you put yourself back there.
• 41:28
  What's the single most
• 41:31
  Memorable
• 41:32
  moment.
• 41:34
  From that day,
• 41:35
  right?
• 41:36
  What's frozen in time for you from
• 41:38
  9/11?
• 41:39
  Well,
• 41:40
  there's a lot of them,
• 41:41
  uh,
• 41:42
  but,
• 41:43
  uh,
• 41:43
  I have to say that for me,
• 41:44
  the thing that stuck with me the entire rest of my life,
• 41:47
  uh,
• 41:48
  was
• 41:48
  after I got home,
• 41:51
  uh,
• 41:51
  my daughter was only
• 41:53
  between 2 and 3 years old at the time.
• 41:55
  And so,
• 41:56
  obviously,
• 41:57
  when you go through something like this and you take
• 41:59
  half a day to get home and you kinda know from
• 42:02
  the national security communications what this is all going on,
• 42:05
  and I came home and I did what any official is gonna do,
• 42:07
  you put on the TV and you're trying to soak up what's happening.
• 42:10
  And as we were watching the TV together,
• 42:13
  uh,
• 42:13
  there was some shadows and some thump thumps that were going on behind the coverage,
• 42:19
  uh,
• 42:19
  before the network realized what was happening.
• 42:22
  Uh,
• 42:22
  and even though my daughter's really young,
• 42:25
  She sort of
• 42:26
  sensed,
• 42:27
  Daddy,
• 42:27
  what,
• 42:27
  what was that?
• 42:28
  And just
• 42:29
  the kind of having to talk to your innocent little ones
• 42:34
  about
• 42:35
  what those people's decisions had to be
• 42:38
  in that moment was probably for me the
• 42:41
  most overwhelming and impressionable part of that experience.
• 42:44
  Of course,
• 42:45
  a lot of us knew of
• 42:47
  uh the Olsons,
• 42:48
  uh,
• 42:49
  and so knowing that one of the two Olsons was on a
• 42:52
  plane and the other was in a meaningful position in government,
• 42:56
  uh,
• 42:56
  was a very poignant
• 42:59
  reality check and all of that.
• 43:00
  But I have to say it was the,
• 43:02
  it was the TV with my daughter
• 43:04
  that really has,
• 43:05
  has stuck with me the whole time.
• 43:08
  Well,
• 43:09
  it's 25 years,
• 43:10
  um,
• 43:11
  and
• 43:12
  yeah,
• 43:13
  it's,
• 43:13
  it's,
• 43:13
  uh,
• 43:14
  hopefully we're around Steve
• 43:16
  still doing this in 25 more years we can talk about the God willing
• 43:19
  history,
• 43:20
  um,
• 43:22
  yeah,
• 43:22
  listen,
• 43:23
  man,
• 43:23
  Steve Yates,
• 43:24
  you know,
• 43:25
  Heritage Foundation and of course I'm gonna say it
• 43:27
  one more time wherever you get your podcasts,
• 43:30
  go find nation states with Yates,
• 43:33
  all right,
• 43:33
  and,
• 43:34
  uh,
• 43:34
  when you see Buck Sexton next,
• 43:36
  tell him he still owes me
• 43:37
  money.
• 43:38
  Uh,
• 43:38
  but thank you very much for joining us today,
• 43:40
  Steve.
• 43:41
  Really appreciate it.
• 43:42
  Thank you,
• 43:42
  Mike.
• 43:43
  Greatly appreciate it.
• 43:45
  Take care,
• 43:45
  man.
• 43:46
  Well,
• 43:47
  that is all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report.
• 43:50
  If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes,
• 43:53
  just
• 43:53
  reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com.
• 43:57
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• 44:02
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• 44:07
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• 44:08
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• 44:10
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• 44:37
  I'm Mike Baker.
• 44:38
  Until next time,
• 44:39
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• 44:40
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• 44:41
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