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The Housing Markets Great Migration · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Tucker with you here and kicking things off.
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  Speaker 2: We've got markets mixed dish, but mostly up. Quite honestly,
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  Speaker 2: if you don't include the Dow, which you know my
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  Speaker 2: thoughts on the Dow. Dow was off zero point one
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  Speaker 2: seven down eighty two points right now, the S and
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  Speaker 2: P is up a quarter percent eighteen points, and the
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  Speaker 2: nasdak can posit up half a percent about one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and nine points. This movement largely happening due to what's
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  Speaker 2: going on in the semiconductor industry, where this morning open
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  Speaker 2: AI said, Hey, AMD, guess what, We'll buy a bunch
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  Speaker 2: of chips from you if you give us a bunch
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  Speaker 2: of stock in your company if we buy those chips,
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  Speaker 2: and so the circular train of money continues throughout the
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  Speaker 2: AI and semiconductor space with you know this again, it
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  Speaker 2: seems like we have kind of weekly announcements on this
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  Speaker 2: kind of stuff.
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  Speaker 3: And.
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  Speaker 2: It's honestly gotten to the point where I don't know
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  Speaker 2: where the money's going to come from in the future,
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  Speaker 2: but in the case where they don't have the money,
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  Speaker 2: they'll make it up with shares. I guess is where
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  Speaker 2: we are right now. Because if you take a look
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  Speaker 2: at shares, are sure where something whether they are until
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  Speaker 2: they're not, yes, you know. And again it's not that
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  Speaker 2: AMD is gonna go out of business, I'm not suggesting that,
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  Speaker 2: but you never know how much they're going to be worth,
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  Speaker 2: and you never know if open Ai is actually going
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  Speaker 2: to have the money to do any of this. So
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  Speaker 2: when I look at AMD, the reason they can't do
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  Speaker 2: the deal that in Vidia did is that AMD has
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  Speaker 2: about five billion dollars in cash, and this is like
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  Speaker 2: a thirty to fifty billion dollar deal that open Ai
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  Speaker 2: is signing with them. Hence, they can do it using
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  Speaker 2: you know, shares, but they can't do it with cash.
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  Speaker 2: Whereas if you take a look at in Video right now,
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  Speaker 2: and Video is sitting on fifty six billion dollars with
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  Speaker 2: free cash fille of seventy two billion dollars a year,
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  Speaker 2: they can easily figure out how to get one hundred
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars to open Ai over the next five years.
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  Speaker 2: Uh huh. So that's what's going on in equity markets,
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  Speaker 2: bond market. We got a little bit of a sell
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  Speaker 2: off there this morning, but it's kind of being tempered now.
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  Speaker 2: Tenure Treasury is up two point one basis points to
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  Speaker 2: four point one four percent. This is not due to
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  Speaker 2: anything that's happening domestically in the United States, but rather
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  Speaker 2: in Japan. We've got a new prime minister there who
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  Speaker 2: basically is in favor of what I would call abe
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  Speaker 2: nomics on steroids. Hey, let's you know, weeke in the end.
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  Speaker 2: Let's pump money into the system and try to grow
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  Speaker 2: the Japanese economy. Japanese long term bonds are blowing out
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  Speaker 2: to the upside, and so globally you're seeing a little
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  Speaker 2: bit of a yield move up as well. But again,
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  Speaker 2: a couple basis points in the US, not anything huge
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  Speaker 2: to write home about. Oil West Texas Intermediate up forty
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  Speaker 2: two cents a barrel to sixty one thirty. No big
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  Speaker 2: moves there. But let me tell you about where we're
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  Speaker 2: still seeing big moves, and that is in gold. What's
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  Speaker 2: that spell, Michael go correct up seventy dollars in ten
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  Speaker 2: ten cents an ounce almost two percent of God, thank
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  Speaker 2: you very much, to thirty nine seventy eight and thirty cents.
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  Speaker 2: That is an all new, all time high. Obviously, if
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  Speaker 2: it's an all time high, it has to be all
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  Speaker 2: new and we're within about half a percent of four
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  Speaker 2: thousand dollars per ounce for the first time ever. So
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  Speaker 2: even though bonds aren't screaming currency debasement, gold is absolutely
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  Speaker 2: screaming that with what's going on in Japan, and you know,
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  Speaker 2: even translating it into dollar terms, you got a meaningful
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  Speaker 2: move there as well. For people who are fans of
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  Speaker 2: you know, other pressures medals you don't just like the gold,
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  Speaker 2: maybe your silver good, maybe platinum, maybe palladium, many of
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  Speaker 2: these idioms, you know, whatever they are. Hey, those are
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  Speaker 2: all up to silver up a dollar I'm sorry one percent,
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  Speaker 2: platinum up one point five, and palladium up four percent.
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  Speaker 4: So those gold investors are having their day forty eight
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  Speaker 4: percent dollar return on gold.
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  Speaker 2: So far this year, it's it's been strong to quite strong.
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  Speaker 2: Let's talk about something that is not strong to quite strong,
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  Speaker 2: the housing market and specifically kind of the power shift
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  Speaker 2: that's happening where Look in twenty twenty one and even
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  Speaker 2: early twenty two, I would struggle to find any states
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  Speaker 2: as a whole that had buyer's markets greed. It was
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  Speaker 2: as cellarific as you could possibly find. I mean, this
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  Speaker 2: was when you have the stories of Hey, guess what,
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  Speaker 2: We're going to an open house this weekend. Oh, like,
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  Speaker 2: how was it? There were eight hundred people there, there
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  Speaker 2: were seventy two offers, forty six were all cash, and
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  Speaker 2: it eventually went for all cash sixty eight percent above
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  Speaker 2: asking price. Yeah, like that was not too exaggerated. Actually, ye,
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  Speaker 2: today that's not the case. And specifically, we've got a
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  Speaker 2: piece here from a fast company talking about where you
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  Speaker 2: are seeing the biggest shift from buyer to seller I'm sorry,
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  Speaker 2: from seller to buyer markets. What are we seeing, Mike?
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  Speaker 4: Well, unsurprisingly here, the big shift is in some of
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  Speaker 4: the markets that we have talked about, where the inventory
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  Speaker 4: levels have been have been ticking up pretty substantially. I
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  Speaker 4: think one other stat that I want to mention, Chuck
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  Speaker 4: So in September of twenty nineteen, the total listings according
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  Speaker 4: to realter dot com, we're sitting at one point two
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  Speaker 4: two million.
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  Speaker 2: Yep. September twenty twenty five, we're at one point one.
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  Speaker 2: And to put this in perspective, at twenty twenty one
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  Speaker 2: levels we were at about five hundred and fifty thousand,
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  Speaker 2: so about half of where we are today.
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  Speaker 4: Right, So, look everywhere across the country, the one year
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  Speaker 4: inventory upticks are are pretty you know, they're substantial really
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  Speaker 4: across the country. New York is the smallest one here
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  Speaker 4: at only four percent.
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  Speaker 2: But there's nowhere that's down. There's nowhere that's down.
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  Speaker 4: Even Connecticut, that we talk about quite a bit, is
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  Speaker 4: still up year over year. The problem why I don't
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  Speaker 4: love this chart that you know, whoever this company Fast
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  Speaker 4: Company put together is it doesn't give you the larger context. Like,
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  Speaker 4: so Connecticut here September twenty twenty five, Yeah, inventories up
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  Speaker 4: year over year seven and a half percent compared to
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  Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.
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  Speaker 2: It's down seventy percent. Yes.
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  Speaker 4: Florida, on the other hand, up year over year and
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  Speaker 4: up twenty two percent since twenty nineteen. And so those
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  Speaker 4: are the factors that I consider a little bit more interesting.
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  Speaker 4: But Maryland, you know, inventory just year over year up
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  Speaker 4: forty six percent. Nevada year over year inventory up thirty
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  Speaker 4: two percent, Washington State up twenty five percent. So these
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  Speaker 4: are some meaningful year of year shifts that we're seeing
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  Speaker 4: in some of those states. Others that we've talked about before, Florida, Texas,
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  Speaker 4: the meaningful shift has really been over the last few years.
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  Speaker 4: And what you're seeing now compared to September of twenty nineteen.
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  Speaker 4: Is there are a number of states that now have
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  Speaker 4: more inventory than pre pandemic.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, a lot of them. It's basically, if you
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  Speaker 2: trying to think of what shape this is, what's kind
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  Speaker 2: of a nice like sloping. It's not a sea, but
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  Speaker 2: it's a like it's like a down slope. I don't know,
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  Speaker 2: if you basically do a nice little downslope from Washington
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  Speaker 2: State through Florida, that's kind of the path this follows.
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  Speaker 2: So Washington State is an example, has twenty five percent
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  Speaker 2: more inventory than twenty nineteen. Idaho up twenty one percent,
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  Speaker 2: Utah up twenty two percent, Colorado up twenty nine, Arizona
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  Speaker 2: twenty eight, Texas up thirty one, Oklahoma up nine, Tennessee
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  Speaker 2: up thirty five. Yeah, you've got you know, Florida's up
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  Speaker 2: twenty three. So those are like the big ones. You
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  Speaker 2: got a few others that are within sniffing distance, but
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  Speaker 2: by the spring are likely to start, you know, being
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  Speaker 2: up pretty significantly in that. You know, the Carolinas are
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  Speaker 2: basically flat compared to pre pandemic, same with Alabama. Georgia
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  Speaker 2: still down five percent compared to pre pandemic. Don't think
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  Speaker 2: that'll be the case next year. And California also seeing
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  Speaker 2: rapid moves up in inventory, up twenty one percent this year,
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  Speaker 2: now down seven percent compared to twenty nineteen levels. That's
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  Speaker 2: probably gonna go positive as well. The Northeast and Midwest,
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  Speaker 2: on the other hand.
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  Speaker 4: I was gonna say, what is the trend here? What
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  Speaker 4: do these states have in common? I'm which ones like
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  Speaker 4: Florida and Washington State do not have a lot in common. Politics,
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  Speaker 4: so both on the coast, Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: They can both get large amounts of rain in a
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  Speaker 2: short period of time, and.
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  Speaker 4: Politics, economic developments like nothing else really seems to have
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  Speaker 4: a lot in common between these two. But you know,
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  Speaker 4: housing inventories that are similar. Likewise, like you know, Maine
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  Speaker 4: and North Dakota, other than really crappy decembers, don't share
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  Speaker 4: a lot in common. And so I don't know what
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  Speaker 4: it is that is put this situation together other than
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  Speaker 4: I think it's moborratory patterns. Yeah, like that's the only
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  Speaker 4: if you want what this has in common. Through twenty
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  Speaker 4: twenty two, people moved out of the Northeast and Midwest
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  Speaker 4: and went south and west.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, And now that's like the inventory's building because with.
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  Speaker 4: Some exceptions, right, like apparently they didn't go to New
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  Speaker 4: Mexico they preferred Arizona.
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  Speaker 2: No, they did not go to Louisiana.
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  Speaker 4: They did not go to Louisiana. They went to Texas
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  Speaker 4: or Florida, Mississippi. Same story, like you know, just different patterns,
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  Speaker 4: and I can see it like Tennessee. Yeah, I do
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  Speaker 4: know people that went to Nashville during COVID and really
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  Speaker 4: you know, laid down roots there.
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  Speaker 2: But it's tough to look through these and pick up
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  Speaker 2: some semblance of a real I think, quite honestly, it's
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  Speaker 2: it's the places that were hip to move three four
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  Speaker 2: years ago are now hip to move out of. And
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  Speaker 2: it's for different reasons. By the way. Some of it
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  Speaker 2: is probably due to people saying, Okay, I can't you know,
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  Speaker 2: work remote anymore and I need to you know, leaven YadA, YadA.
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  Speaker 2: Some of it is, hey, my property taxes are going
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  Speaker 2: up and my insurance premiums tripled. No, I'm not going
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  Speaker 2: to do this anymore, like the dollars don't work the
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  Speaker 2: way they used to. I'm gonna move somewhere else. The
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  Speaker 2: ones in those regions that didn't pick people, quite honestly. Look,
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  Speaker 2: I love Louisiana. I was there three weeks ago. I
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  Speaker 2: try to go to Louisiana once every year or two
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  Speaker 2: just because I love it down there. Despite that, I
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  Speaker 2: can see why it's not everyone's cup of tea. You know,
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  Speaker 2: it's aside from New Orleans, which quite honestly seems like
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  Speaker 2: a great place to visit. But I think I would
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  Speaker 2: be dead in like five days if I lived there
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  Speaker 2: with all of the food I would eat. It doesn't
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  Speaker 2: have the hubs and the places that the people were
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  Speaker 2: attracted to back in twenty twenty one and twenty two.
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  Speaker 2: So I think you can see it where you say, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I understand why Mississippi and Louisiana didn't pick up the
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  Speaker 2: population then, but Texas and Florida did. I can see
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  Speaker 2: why Arizona did, but New Mexico didn't. Like this this
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  Speaker 2: clicks for me, just kind of intuitively. But the problem
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  Speaker 2: is that this stuff is spreading, and it's going to
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  Speaker 2: spread to the Northeast and Midwest as well. It's just
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  Speaker 2: gonna be on more of a delayed few. I think
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  Speaker 2: where we end up is the next five to seven years.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think you see the housing market fall apart.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think prices really go anywhere because home prices
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  Speaker 2: need to see incomes catch up in real terms, and
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  Speaker 2: that's just gonna take time, a couple percentage points a
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  Speaker 2: year where hey, incomes grow two to three percent and
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  Speaker 2: home prices stay flat. And that's the mechanism that makes
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  Speaker 2: this up. Because we don't see signs of overleverage in
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: the housing market. Nope, we don't see signs of distress
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  Speaker 2: amongst mortgages and things like that. So it's not gonna
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: be that home prices go down like ten to fifteen percent.
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  Speaker 2: It's not two thousand and seven. It's just, Hey, it's
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  Speaker 2: an affordability crisis where you're just gonna have to see
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: incomes grow their way out of it, and that might
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  Speaker 2: take five to seven years when it happens, and some areas,
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  Speaker 2: like local locally, you could see problems in some areas
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  Speaker 2: you already have to this point. Yeah, let's take a
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  Speaker 2: quick break. When we come back, we've got trivia and
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: then gosh, I'm just getting kind of tired of Amazon
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: holding prime events every couple months. Not me, Chuck, And
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I just wonder if it says something about the fact
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: that they have to keep doing like if every day's
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Prime Day is any day prime, Nowaday is prime Day.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Let's discuss when we return.
• 13:17
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• 13:52
  Speaker 3: A hike time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange uh.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: The NASDAC peaked at five thousand and forty eight on
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: March tenth, two thousand. From March tenth, two thousand to
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: October ninth, two thousand and two, the index fell seventy
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: seven point nine percent. It took many years before the
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: NASDAK reclaimed its March tenth, two thousand high. So our
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: trivia question today how many years did it take for
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: the index to reclaim its closing high once again? How
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: many years did it take for the Nasdaq to reclaim
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: its closing high. Be the second person today to text
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: five with the correct answer, you'd win a Financial Exchange
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Show T shirt.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Once again.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: The second correct response to text us to the number
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: Exchange Show dot com.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Mike, do we want to talk? What is that Amazon piece?
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: I know it's I don't know what I did with it,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: but Amazon is having a couple more deal days this week.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: What are they called? It's not Prime Days there, No,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: it's sat on the second page near the top. Prime
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: is Big Deal Days. There you go, Big Deal Days.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: So here's the thing. I remember when Prime Day first happened.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: It was maybe ten twelve years ago, and it was
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: in July, and it was like, oh, here's Prime Day.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: This is different because it's not happening around Holiday's shop
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: and Season's happened in the middle of the summer. And
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: that's all well and good Like it's fine, and to
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: be fair, like I thought you could find like some
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: good deals occasionally. Now what I see more often than not.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Is they're having like these things three or four times
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: a year, and so it's kind of like, well, why
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: would I do it this time. On top of that,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: it's unclear to me whether you're actually getting deals on
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of these products or not, because they change
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: the pricing so often that you might not be.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: And Yeah, therefore I challenged the premise of this article.
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: Amazon's Prime Event is a test of holiday shopping demand.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: I don't really think so. I don't think it is
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: relevant at all. In fact, if I go to Wirecutter,
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: it's a it's a tech review site owned by the
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: New York Times.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: If you're not familiar, Uh.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: They started with just tech reviews. I'm looking at it.
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: They have like pages on the best shirts that are
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: out there. I see no mention whatsoever of deals on
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: this Prime Deal Day event.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: It's one of their tabs.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: Says prime Day.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: Do you know the big one of the top says
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Prime Day.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: On the left, this is not what I'm saying, says
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: the eighty plus best.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: See how mine has this whole menu across the top?
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: Can you refresh yours? Are you just a wirecutter dot
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: comor do you go somewhere else. I went to New
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: York Times. Do wirecutter dot com. Try just wirecutter dot com. Yeah, man,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you this is what happened to me. Well,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: this is the problem with tech. It's the very first Oh, Michael,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: your computer's broken. No, my again, mine redirects me to this.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Click click on the menu, click on the menu. Did
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: you do the H T T P? Yeah? I have
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: to go through some weird menu to get attention to it. Yeah,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Mike's screen saws a purrently is registering his screen as
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: a mobile is assumed into like two fifty or something.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Are you still do you wear your readers? I'm at
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: one ten, one ten. There you go, Michael, is the
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: whole time? Look at that?
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: And it is the first tab okay. Apparently, apparently Wirecutter.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: Cares, Tucker, can you throw us back in time thirty
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: seconds so that we can redo that. I think we're
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: gonna need a little bit of help here. The only
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: people that care about this Amazon Prime Day deal a
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Wirecutter apparently. So if you go to the front page
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: of Wirecutter, you can see that Prime Day is the
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: first thing listened, which means it must be a huge deal.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Yeahs eighty plus best Prime Day Deals. I'm sorry, folks. Again,
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: I had zoomed in on my browsers, so apparently that
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: didn't come up.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know. I don't know that anybody cares
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: about well, and some of this, like you look at
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: and I kind of go, okay, is this actually a
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: deal even I'll give you just an example here, Like
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: some of them, you can look at it like okay,
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: like sure that that saves you? Okay. I got to
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: be honest here. First thing I came to, what is
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: a fabric shaver? Why would I need to shave my fabric?
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: Is that the thing that has the pills for sweaters?
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, what is that? We got one of those? Yeah?
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: You have one? Yeah? Sure, I don't use it my way.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I have one. You should. I do like sweater.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: Frequently wear sweaters and they always got those little frills
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: on them. Uh.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know that this is going to indicate much
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: for Amazon. I'm with you on the.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Like facial moisturizer with SPF thirty, Okay, this is actually
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: really funny. So this is on their Prime Big Deal
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Days sixteen dollars from Amazon, or you can get it
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: for eleven from Target. This is what I mean, Like,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: what are we doing here?
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: I will say one thing that Amazon is doing. Well,
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: did you guys get your like Fall Amazon catalog?
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: I did, Yeah, we get two of them.
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, my kids get pumped when Amazon sees them those catalogs,
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: whether it's the Christmas one, almost was a Halloween one
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: they dive in, So something that went away for quite
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: some time and Amazon's kind of brought it back and
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: created some excitement among some demographic.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: I dread it, but my kids get pretty pumped. Mike.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Half the stuff on this list is listing prices that
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: are cheaper than Amazon, and you should go somewhere else. Yeah,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: that's what I love. Why which is wild? Let's take
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: a quick break. When we come back, we got Wall
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: Street watch the trivia answer, and then we're talking about Neats.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: what's moving market so far today right here on the
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: Well, a new week is upon us, and the government
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: shutdown continues to drag on. However, the big news of
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: the day surrounds a massive computing deal between open ai
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: and AMD. Right now, markets are mixed. The Dow is
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: down by a tenth of a percent, or seventy six
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: points lower, SMP five hundred is up three tenths of
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: one percent or twenty one points, Nasdaq up one hundred
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: and twenty nine points or nearly six tenths of one percent.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Russell two thousand up by one percent at the moment,
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Tenure Treasure reeled up four basis points now and it's
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: currently at four point one six percent, and crude oil
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: up one point three percent, trading at sixty one dollars
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: and seventy one cents a barrel. Open ai and AMD
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: agreed to a multi billion dollar partnership to collaborate on
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: AI data centers that will run on AMD processors. AMD
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: surging twenty six percent on the Newswault competitor in videos
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: pulling back about one percent. Treser will continue to watch
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: for more develop it's from open ai this afternoon during
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: its annual dev Day event, which will feature announcements, keynotes
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: from executives in a chat between CEO Sam Altman and
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: longtime Apple designer Jony Ive. Meanwhile, Pallenteers, rebounding four percent
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: after its stumble. On Friday, the data analysis company pushed
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: back against a Reuters report about security flaws in a
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: communications platform designed for the US Army. Elsewhere, Fifth Third
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: ban Corp. Announced a ten point nine billion dollar all
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: stock deal to buy regional Bank America. Fifth third shares
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: are now flat, while Kamerica stock is jumping fifteen percent
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: and Tesla rising almost four percent after the electric car
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: maker teased a product launch announcement on X with tomorrow's date,
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: leading to increasing speculation about the release of a new car.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: in the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: how many years did it take for the Nasdaq reclaim
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: its closing high? It'll be fifteen. The index didn't reclaim
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: it's March tenth, two thousand closing high until April twenty
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: third of twenty fifteen. Ed from Falmouth, Mass is our
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: winner today taking on a Financial Exchine Show T shirt.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: Congrats to Ed, and we played trivia every day here
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: Exchange Show dot com.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Mike, what's a neat.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: A neat is an acronym for not employed, enrolled, or
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: in training neat.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: No, it doesn't sound very neat. Not So this is
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: talking specifically. This is a piece from Bloomberg and it's
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: talking about these they're referring to this group as neat.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Any ets, so not in school, not in some sort
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: of training program, and doesn't have a job. And in
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, twelve percent of sixteen to twenty four
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: year olds were neats. And this is not great when
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: one in eight people in age sixteen to twenty four
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: isn't in school, isn't working, or not in a training program.
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: Where do they get that number? By the way, this
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: twelve percent number, the unemployment rates only ten and a half.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: So this is what the I believe Federal Reserve Bank
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: of Saint Louis found. Okay, all right, fair, it's what
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: they reference here at least. Okay, here's what the study
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis found. Women
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: actually make up a slightly larger share than men. There's
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: been a lot of speculation online that it's just a
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: bunch of like seventeen year old men just like sitting
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: in their basement playing video games. It's not. It's fifty
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: one and a half percent women, forty eight and a
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: half percent men, which is basically the proportion that you have,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: like if you look at the overall popular Actually, no,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: that's for college age population. It's a little higher that way,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: but in any case, it's basically fifty to fifty seventy
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: percent of needs have a high school degree or less,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: which makes sense because generally, if you are aged sixteen
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: to twenty four, most of you you don't already have
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: a college degree. And when you will get the percentage
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: of people that are, you know, generally in that age
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: demo trying to get a college degree, it varies between
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: like fifty and sixty percent, So it makes sense that
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: most of you know, this group does not have a
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: college degree. A quarter come from families with less than
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: twenty five thousand in income. I don't know if that's
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: statistically significant at all. It's like, okay, Like I don't
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: know that matters. More live in rural areas compared to
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: metro or cities twenty point two percent compared to fifteen
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: point six in metro areas seventeen point one in cities.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: The lowest rate was amongst white youth, while the highest
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: was amongst black youth, So rural.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's definitely a farming crisis going on right
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: now and problems, but this is twenty four Yeah, So
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: here's where my mind went is they called this a crisis,
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: and I was like, you know, bless you. I remember
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: a particularly high unemployment stage when niels were entering the
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: workforce and they got some of them got so pissed
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: off that they literally pitched tents in front of banks
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: and did this whole Occupy Wall Street thing. I remember
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: because I was working for one of the financial service
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: companies that they were protesting, and so I was like,
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: why isn't that demo doing that sort of thing this time?
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: Generally speaking, the youth unemployment rate is a not a
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: bad indicator of social unrest and other sorts of problems.
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: And when I looked at it, I came to the
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: conclusion that the unemployment rate for youth being a ten
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: and a half percent, which is where it was as
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: of the most recent read, is just not that high.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: I wasn't the data.
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: I pulled the data for two thousand through twenty twenty five,
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: so twenty five years of data, we were only under
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: ten and a half percent youth unemployment.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: You know, since twenty twenty one, we've been under there.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: We were under there starting in twenty sixteen through twenty nineteen.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Other than that, we've been pretty much over ten percent
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: for twenty five years. Yeah, in two thousand and you
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: know eleven, when Occupy Wall Street was going on, it
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: was seventeen percent. It hit a.
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: Peak back in twenty ten of youth unemployment. This is
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: of nineteen and a half percent. Throughout the early two thousands,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: post dot com era, it was twelve thirteen percent. And
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: so I'm not saying this isn't a problem. It is
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: a problem. I'm just saying that it's actually fairly normal
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: for what we became used to prior to the really
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: raging economy of the late twenty tens and post COVID.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: I think what you can say is the problem, though,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: is that the trend is up. Yeah.
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, if it's trending the wrong direction, it's a it's
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: a real problem because that could indicate something a lot
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: worse for the future.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: You know, if we're what's the lows that we got
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: down to.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: The low that I saw during this cycle was in
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty three when this hit six point six percent
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: pre COVID the low was like, yeah, nearly eight.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: So even it looks like we kind of for most
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: of the last couple of years like hit a low
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: of a round eight, but that was just like one
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: or two readings. Yeah, so if you've now gone from
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: like eight two you said ten and a half, Yeah,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: it's a big jump. Okay, if that's happened in the
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: last two years, then if we're gonna be at thirteen
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: a couple of years from now, if this keeps going
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: that way, you start looking at it, you go, yeah,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: like this that's the stuff that gives you the not
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: good feeling about.
• 27:23
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• 27:28
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• 27:30
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• 28:26
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• 28:31
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• 28:35
  Speaker 4: By the way, Chalck, I mean, if there is one
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: statistic that I'd be willing to bet the White House
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: is obsessed over right now, it's that one that youth
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: unemployment ray. Like again, that's not where the spending power is,
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: that's not where the driver of the stock market is.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: But if you want to avoid protests in the street,
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: you keep that number low.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: It's true.
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: And so when I think about things like the White
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: House calling for lower interest rates doing what they can
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: to spur or the economy back into growth mode. I
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: where I them would be focusing on that one item,
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: because again, what happened in the early twenty tens when
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: youth unemployment hit them mid to high teens. You had
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: protests in the street all over the country. You had
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: people pitching tents for weeks and months outside of investment
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: banks in New York City like you. I'm not saying
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: that those were well organized or well thought of protests
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: that actually resulted anything, but they did happen, and I
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: would blame the primary thing for why they happened on
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: youth unemployment.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: I completely agree, totally agree.
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: When young kids don't have jobs, they don't have a
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: lot to lose when it comes to breaking the law,
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: and you know, developing all sorts of protests.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about berries
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: because Tucker put this piece in the stack today and
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: now we all know this one was for YouTube. I
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: was just like, oh hi, I am, I am definitely
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: scene here. So it's titled Barry There America's top selling
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: fruit and every Parent's grocery bill nightmare. And granted it
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: wasn't Berry's yesterday, this is the Subpetter Berry spending top
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: twelve billion in the last year. Many parents feel like
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: their own kids accounted for all of it. So yesterday
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: grocery shopping day, pop over to BJ's in the morning
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: because this is the only place where I can get
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: sufficient quantities of fruits and vegetables for my kids without
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: you know, spending a million dollars. Now and get home,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: and daughter says dad. We always this is not a
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: fruit thing. But you know the little miniature bell peppers
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: that they sell, Now I do. That's our pepper of
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: choice at this point. Got it, We got homes. She
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: goes deck. Can I have a pepper? Sure? Why not? Okay? Okay?
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: She eats the pepper deck. Can I have two more? Well,
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: why don't you just do one more? No? I think
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: I can do two. Okay, fine, here's two more. Wash them,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: hand them over, pounds them down deck. Can I have
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: three more? You want three more?
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Okay? Here you go again, chuck. What a wonderful problem
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: to have. It is. But this is also why I
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: have to buy four pound bags of peppers for like
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: eight dollars now, is because otherwise you can't shop at
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: a conventional grocery store for children. True, but it's gonna
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: save you a lot on your diabetes mets down the road.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: It will. The problem that every parent then faces is, Okay,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: how can you eat like any meat, especially at these prices?
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: But it's neither here nor there, So ultimately you've just
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: got a case where like, of course you a survey
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: of two hundred and thirty seven parents for a kid
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: to eat a carton of berries takes between one and
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: two to three days, which is totally true. And the
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: problem is this stuff is not cheap, especially like you
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: start getting into the raspberries and the blackberries, which honestly
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: are only good for like two or three days anyways
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: before they start going bad. You know what I've really
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: converted myself to over the last year or so, Melons,
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: apples and oranges are the way to go. Melon's huh,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Melons I do. I buy the whole thing, and I
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: cut the whole thing up on day one so that
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not, you know, having to slice it all the time.
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: He's cutting them up into berries shaped quantities, and he's
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: poking them with little needles to make them even look
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: like a berry.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: I guess with with my art skills that would end
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: very poorly. But I really think like I've tried to
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: move away from berries because honestly, they go bad so
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: much more quickly, and they're so freaking expensive. It's nuts.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: Oh, it's it's it's really bad in our household, and
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: it's it's strawberries, it's blueberries, you name it, we got it.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: And the thing I'll say about apples, they last for
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: freaking ever, Yeah they do. And honestly, especially this time
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: of year in the New England region, they're delicious because
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: they're from here. So there's that too. Just take a
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: quick break when we come back. Stack Roulettes.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
• 33:00
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• 33:03
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• 33:09
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• 33:12
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• 33:16
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• 33:19
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• 33:21
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• 33:25
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• 33:28
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• 33:34
  Speaker 3: This year's dav five K is sold out, but you
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: can still help our great American heroes. The race is Saturday,
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• 33:47
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• 34:03
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• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette?
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: Starbucks they have been working on Project bloom, which is
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: just a really nice word for we're closing stores and
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: firing people.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Like the opposite of blooming. Yeah, it does.
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: It seems like what's it called when the vines and dies,
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: something like that. Now hopefully it's you know, chopping off
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: some of those poisoned flowers to make the whole plant
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: bloom a little bit better. But this has been a
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: bit of a roller coaster for the quote turnaround that
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: Brian Nichol is trying to orchestrate over at Starbucks. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: said July that there was going to be a review
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: of these stores, and yeah, the company owned eleven four
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: hundred and fifty stores in the United States and Canada
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: as of June twenty ninth. We will see just how
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: many of them end up being closed. But I've seen
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: this in the city of Boston, I've seen it elsewhere.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: And yeah, the Wall Street Journal apparently got a hold
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: of some of the emails. Quote, we regret to inform
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: you that we no longer have a position available for
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: you at Starbucks. We wish you all the best in
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: your future endeavors. And Starbucks, I'll say this about them,
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: I feel as though, and at some points during Starbucks
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: they really tried to create this family like environment among
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: their employees. And all that I'll say about this is
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: it's not impossible to occur at a company, but there's
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: a pretty high bar that the company needs to reach
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: before you should buy into that idea. I think companies
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: employ you because they need labor. They pay you for
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: that labor. And if you're ever being told like, ah,
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: we really need you to kick it in on the weekend,
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: you know, be part of the team.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: My answer has always been pay me yes.
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: And you know, I think that people kind of came
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: to that realization with Starbucks over the course the last
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: few years, as they've needed to drive a harder line
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: and the show that they can still be profitable and they're
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: not just some social experiment. But I feel like sometimes
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: people kind of get caught off guard by that this
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: is a for profit company that whose share price has
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: been absolutely demolished over the last few years, and they
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: are going to be cutthroat when they need to be
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: when they feel they need to be cutthroat. And so
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: don't misidentify your work with your identity or passion in
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: most cases, I think needs to be the point that
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: I would make here.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Yes, as Don Draper once said, that's what the money's for. Yeah,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: you know, it's the deal. I want to talk about
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: this piece from the New York Times, craft breweries struggle
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: as sales and appetites. Wane is at a craft brewery
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: on Saturday, and basically what happened is look a decade ago,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: there were forty eight hundred craft breweries in the country.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Now there are ninety nine hundred, so they've doubled. The
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: problem is that taste change, and it's unclear that this
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: is anything more than a fad. Albeit you know, it's
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: slower moving one. It's not something where it's just you know,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: over and done quickly. But you're seeing taste changing, and
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: even with younger generations, their view on alcohol is changing
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: as well. And I gotta be honest, I will say
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: for the worst really yes, oh, like the amount of
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: literature that's out there now that like gen zers will
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: not even socially drink because they believe alcohol is that
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: bad to you. I'm a big believer that part of
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: the reason that we're not really getting along very well
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: with each other is we don't really socially drink with
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: each other enough and like actually learn just to talk
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: to other humans instead of just yelling at them on
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: social media. And so that seems like more of a
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: social problem than an alcohol problem. But it's both. Alcohol
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: look for all of its problems, and it has many.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: From a health perspective, I don't disagree. But what if
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: it's actually the thing that keeps us from going completely
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: insane as a society. I mean, there's a reason why
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: it's persisted across mo Nia despite the fact that it's
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: not great for you, is the fact that maybe it
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: kind of holds us all together if done in moderation,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: and you know occasionally like if you go too far
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: in either direction. I don't think it's necessarily great for
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: everything in moderation, including moderation the conglomerate. Yeah, let's take
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: a quick break for the entire rest of the day,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: and we're going to see it tomorrow on the financial exchange.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Who's still not shut down?