Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bitcoin $95,000 Next?💥Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barren. Welcome back in a tech path.
- 0:07Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. I do want to think
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- 1:04Speaker 1: a look at the market right now, holding at almost
- 1:08Speaker 1: three point one three point ZHO nine as we're recording
- 1:11Speaker 1: right now, volume one hundred and eighty three billion, but
- 1:14Speaker 1: over three trillion, and consistent right now greed fear and
- 1:19Speaker 1: greed holding it about eighty three. And of course all
- 1:22Speaker 1: coin seasons still very young, holding right now at the
- 1:26Speaker 1: very beginning. And I'm kind of curious when you guys
- 1:28Speaker 1: look at your all coins that you're tracking right now,
- 1:31Speaker 1: is this an all coin season that you have been
- 1:34Speaker 1: in for some time or are you just now starting
- 1:36Speaker 1: to cycle into some all coins? Let me know down
- 1:38Speaker 1: in the comments below, and what tokens are you guys tracking.
- 1:41Speaker 1: I want to go over and take a look at
- 1:43Speaker 1: a little bit of the news. One of the things,
- 1:44Speaker 1: of course, is the all time high could happen right
- 1:47Speaker 1: here at above ninety four again, and all of this
- 1:50Speaker 1: has been coming with a sell off warning, and many
- 1:53Speaker 1: people are looking at this. Of course, we sow a
- 1:55Speaker 1: little bit of a pump on four reasons, and I'll
- 1:58Speaker 1: explain that in a second. But if you look at
- 2:00Speaker 1: some of the things people are saying right now, is
- 2:03Speaker 1: that we've seen ninety four k on bitstand just before
- 2:05Speaker 1: the US trading session. This of course was a pre high.
- 2:08Speaker 1: Someone said said, watch out, we might see a little
- 2:11Speaker 1: bit of a trace, even though as of recording we
- 2:13Speaker 1: haven't seen a little bit of an adjustment. Bitcoin holding
- 2:16Speaker 1: the only green candle for the day. So that in
- 2:18Speaker 1: itself one of the reasons why, of course, has been
- 2:21Speaker 1: all about this guy right here, Michael Sailor, continuing to
- 2:25Speaker 1: set it in And I think one thing that you've
- 2:27Speaker 1: got to look at is that he's looking to try
- 2:30Speaker 1: to get others to start to put bitcoin on their
- 2:33Speaker 1: balance sheet. Microsoft would be a huge win if in
- 2:36Speaker 1: fact he gets a chance to talk to their board
- 2:38Speaker 1: and actually get it done. So he's going to be
- 2:41Speaker 1: presenting over there to Microsoft's board in December to advocate
- 2:45Speaker 1: for the inclusion of bitcoin in the company's corporate treasury.
- 2:47Speaker 1: I think we will see more companies going in this
- 2:50Speaker 1: direction just because of the pure and simple success that
- 2:54Speaker 1: Sailor has had. National Center for Public Policy Research also
- 2:58Speaker 1: has throm support behind Sailor's proposal, argument that Microsoft has
- 3:01Speaker 1: a fiduciary duty to do something like this for some
- 3:04Speaker 1: of the shareholders. If this is the case. And if
- 3:07Speaker 1: we are seeing a very pro trade right now on bitcoin,
- 3:11Speaker 1: just because of what we've seen around Trump's strategic reserve,
- 3:15Speaker 1: what we will see, most likely from a regulatory standpoint,
- 3:17Speaker 1: which I think is starting to play out because we're
- 3:20Speaker 1: seeing some interesting moves from some companies out there, including Coinbase,
- 3:24Speaker 1: who's currently being sued by the SEC. This could all
- 3:27Speaker 1: be pointing in the right direction for publicly traded companies
- 3:31Speaker 1: to actually hold these assets on their balance sheet. Micro
- 3:34Speaker 1: Strategies making history again. Micro Strategy costs one hundred billion
- 3:37Speaker 1: in market cap threshold become the ninety third largest publicly
- 3:40Speaker 1: traded company in the United States. Over the last twenty
- 3:43Speaker 1: four hours. Micro Strategy also passed forty companies on the
- 3:46Speaker 1: top chart. So Bitcoin goes up, micro Strategy goes up. Yes,
- 3:51Speaker 1: we get it, but right now it's fifteen billion larger
- 3:54Speaker 1: than Dell Computer. This is insane when you think about
- 3:58Speaker 1: all of this is dependent upon where the positioning he
- 4:02Speaker 1: is on bitcoin and are we in a position right
- 4:04Speaker 1: now where Bitcoin could see an unbelievable market growth. Ninety
- 4:09Speaker 1: five k is what we're looking at right now, but
- 4:11Speaker 1: easily this could slip over one hundred k. And be
- 4:14Speaker 1: the psychological effect on the markets. Let me know what
- 4:17Speaker 1: you guys think Once that bitcoin hits one hundred k,
- 4:20Speaker 1: which I anticipate is going to where do you think
- 4:22Speaker 1: the market goes from there? Do you feel like that
- 4:24Speaker 1: triggers the all coin market? Do you feel like no,
- 4:27Speaker 1: this is just the beginning for bitcoin. Let me know
- 4:29Speaker 1: down in the comments. One other thing you got to
- 4:31Speaker 1: look at, of course, is Peter Schiff. He's always coming
- 4:34Speaker 1: in on statements, and of course his statement is the
- 4:36Speaker 1: higher master stock micro strategy. The more shares sailor can sell,
- 4:41Speaker 1: the more shares he sells, the more bitcoin he can buy,
- 4:44Speaker 1: the more he buys, the higher bitcoin price cost. And
- 4:47Speaker 1: it's a you know, it's kind of enter around and
- 4:48Speaker 1: around we go. The question here is when does it stop?
- 4:52Speaker 1: And I think this is a question that's interesting to
- 4:54Speaker 1: compare to gold because I think people now are starting
- 4:56Speaker 1: to look at bitcoin as digital gold. Is is it
- 5:00Speaker 1: the potential of actually achieving a seventeen trillion dollar market
- 5:04Speaker 1: cap in this cycle? And if it were to at
- 5:07Speaker 1: some point displace gold as true digital gold, then does
- 5:12Speaker 1: it ever end? That's the real question. I think a
- 5:14Speaker 1: lot of major investors are starting to ask around bitcoin,
- 5:18Speaker 1: and it's still early. You got to remember this is
- 5:20Speaker 1: still a baby asset overall. We're only one year into
- 5:23Speaker 1: an ETF. Yes, it is the greatest and the biggest
- 5:25Speaker 1: ETF ever done, but the fact that we are still
- 5:28Speaker 1: just one year in is amazing. Here's Eric Balshchuniz talking
- 5:32Speaker 1: about ETF super visual showing that we're where the action
- 5:35Speaker 1: is is I bet, I bet options, this is the
- 5:37Speaker 1: strike price. Basically everything to the right of the right
- 5:42Speaker 1: line is betting that Bitcoin be higher and higher in
- 5:46Speaker 1: the future, so left is betting lower. So basically no
- 5:49Speaker 1: takers right now on that left side. In terms of
- 5:52Speaker 1: where we might see bitcoin going, of course, lots of
- 5:55Speaker 1: happening right now, and again that's why you're seeing the
- 5:59Speaker 1: surge in bitcoin, where the rest of the market is
- 6:01Speaker 1: in the red right now. So big days ahead for
- 6:05Speaker 1: it looks like for bitcoin, Big day four. IBIT on
- 6:07Speaker 1: their first day of options, just shy of one point
- 6:09Speaker 1: nine billion one notional experience trade, three hundred and forty
- 6:13Speaker 1: five three and fifty four thousand contracts, and there were
- 6:16Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty nine thousands of those were calls.
- 6:19Speaker 1: So again a lot of activity both on calls and puts.
- 6:23Speaker 1: But man, to see that many contracts put out there
- 6:27Speaker 1: on first day is pretty amazing, pretty amazing. Let me
- 6:30Speaker 1: go to a clip real quick because this will get
- 6:32Speaker 1: into a little bit more around the options and the
- 6:35Speaker 1: success it's had so far on the market. Take a look.
- 6:38Speaker 2: It really boggles the mind what I was just thinking about.
- 6:40Speaker 3: You could do.
- 6:41Speaker 2: You could write calls. You could write calls. You could
- 6:44Speaker 2: buy puts the protector downside. You could sell puts to
- 6:47Speaker 2: acquire bitcoin at a lower price. Order is, you can
- 6:49Speaker 2: do spreads, you can do straddles.
- 6:51Speaker 1: The volatility is so high the option.
- 6:52Speaker 2: Premiums must be exorbitant, so you could sell options.
- 6:56Speaker 3: But the questions is volatility come down materially?
- 6:59Speaker 4: And that's what a lot of analystsay, real.
- 7:01Speaker 3: Yes, if that happens, but does that then put a
- 7:04Speaker 3: cap on it? Or does that?
- 7:06Speaker 1: Can it happen?
- 7:07Speaker 2: That's a tailwagon the dog because bitcoin is in here. Yeah,
- 7:10Speaker 2: but by definition bitcoin has been volatile. Do you think
- 7:13Speaker 2: options really could lessen the volatility of the underlying asset.
- 7:17Speaker 4: I mean, that's what some analysts are saying. Especially as
- 7:19Speaker 4: you build out a more robust market for infrastructure around this,
- 7:22Speaker 4: you bring in more institutional money. And what I will
- 7:24Speaker 4: say in terms of like building out what you can
- 7:26Speaker 4: do with these spot crypto products. You've got Greyscale updating
- 7:29Speaker 4: its prospectus just this week to do a covered call
- 7:32Speaker 4: ETF for bitcoin. So you're seeing that those are the
- 7:35Speaker 4: products that these issuers are indexing toward, rather than having
- 7:39Speaker 4: you know, spot funds around all of these all coins.
- 7:41Speaker 2: Because you just mentioned eighty percent of the volume is
- 7:44Speaker 2: in calls, so that must mean they're rich premiums and
- 7:47Speaker 2: the calls you could sell those and if it doesn't
- 7:49Speaker 2: hit it.
- 7:50Speaker 1: You just keep that premium exactly. Yeah. So, as you
- 7:55Speaker 1: can see, there's a lot of traditional traders out there
- 7:58Speaker 1: trying to massage this market. And of course what they're
- 8:00Speaker 1: talking about there is reducing the volatility of bitcoin. Does
- 8:04Speaker 1: it actually reduce the volatility of the underlying asset? I
- 8:08Speaker 1: don't know. This is such an early scenario that's going
- 8:12Speaker 1: to play out, especially in the heat of the market.
- 8:14Speaker 1: I think this at the very minimum, it's probably going
- 8:17Speaker 1: to continue to drive the price of bitcoin up. The
- 8:20Speaker 1: real question is when the market starts to see some pressure,
- 8:23Speaker 1: how does the market react to that. Bitcoin's independence from
- 8:26Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred. That's one thing that
- 8:28Speaker 1: people are looking at, is it and have we completely
- 8:32Speaker 1: detached away from the SNP where we've seen a little
- 8:35Speaker 1: bit of downside, But yet Bitcoin's sitting here at trying
- 8:38Speaker 1: to continue to break all time highs each week. One
- 8:42Speaker 1: scene is merely a speculative risk on assets, challenging its
- 8:45Speaker 1: traditional market tize. Over the past three months, Bitcoin has
- 8:48Speaker 1: outpaced the SMP and Nasdaq, surging almost sixty percent compared
- 8:52Speaker 1: to their modest gains. That to me is a clear
- 8:56Speaker 1: indicator that it is apparently trying to detach.
- 9:00Speaker 2: Now.
- 9:00Speaker 1: When I say it being an asset, I think it's
- 9:02Speaker 1: investors that are looking at it as a new asset
- 9:05Speaker 1: class that gets into this. It's kind of like gold
- 9:08Speaker 1: if you look at how gold real estate even to
- 9:10Speaker 1: a certain extent, some of the other risk assets. But
- 9:12Speaker 1: Bitcoin could be in a position now where the S
- 9:15Speaker 1: and P five hundred no longer dictates how it's going.
- 9:18Speaker 1: In fact, I think it's going to be more related
- 9:20Speaker 1: to the success of the ETFs that will dictate where
- 9:23Speaker 1: this is going. Other thing that's happening right now, Bitcoin
- 9:26Speaker 1: is now up one hundred and fifty three percent over
- 9:28Speaker 1: the last twelve months last year, at this time, bitcoin
- 9:31Speaker 1: was worth less than one trillion. Right now, it's trading
- 9:34Speaker 1: at about one point eight. It's now just seven percent
- 9:37Speaker 1: away from hitting a two trillion market cap milestone. This
- 9:41Speaker 1: is a big deal, guys, because this shows one consistency.
- 9:46Speaker 3: Two.
- 9:47Speaker 1: I think that it shows there's a lot of new
- 9:49Speaker 1: money starting to move into the market, and we have
- 9:51Speaker 1: yet to really started to see retail come in. And
- 9:54Speaker 1: I think that's the question right now is where this
- 9:57Speaker 1: market can go to for bitcoin on this cycle will
- 10:01Speaker 1: all depend on how the rest of this plays out
- 10:03Speaker 1: for retail Bitcoin's rally sores is one hundred k within
- 10:07Speaker 1: reach or possibly just as teas, do we get a
- 10:09Speaker 1: bounce off this? Let me know in the comments, do
- 10:11Speaker 1: you think we do blast right through one hundred k?
- 10:13Speaker 1: One hundred k is going to be a very psychological
- 10:16Speaker 1: figure because if you guys, remember if you haven't been
- 10:19Speaker 1: around on the last cycle in twenty twenty one, one
- 10:23Speaker 1: hundred k was the target. It was a target that
- 10:26Speaker 1: everybody was pushing to. And then of course we had
- 10:28Speaker 1: a major problem with the Chinese banning bitcoin mining it
- 10:33Speaker 1: right in the middle of it. I think that was
- 10:34Speaker 1: what cut the market short, and of course it also
- 10:37Speaker 1: cut bitcoin short in its ability to hit one hundred K,
- 10:41Speaker 1: which a lot of people were really pushing on on.
- 10:43Speaker 1: I think it cut a lot of people by surprise.
- 10:45Speaker 1: I don't think that's happening now. I think now it's
- 10:47Speaker 1: much more cautious. The market seems to be just moving up,
- 10:51Speaker 1: trouncing along as a typical bull market looks like. The
- 10:55Speaker 1: question is is where does it go? And do you
- 10:57Speaker 1: get one of those omega candles coming out of bitcoin
- 10:59Speaker 1: going forward? So the problem is you got a lot
- 11:03Speaker 1: of tensions growing right now, and that could be a
- 11:06Speaker 1: situation that starts to maybe pull back on bitcoin, or
- 11:11Speaker 1: does it get accelerated if we start to see more
- 11:13Speaker 1: global tensions, you know, on these warfronts, the people start
- 11:17Speaker 1: to look at gold and bitcoin as the one place
- 11:20Speaker 1: to go in for security. I think that's the question
- 11:23Speaker 1: everybody's asking right now. I want to go to another
- 11:26Speaker 1: clip because this will get into it is bitcoin gold's
- 11:29Speaker 1: true competition? Take a look, and I'm just wondering, is
- 11:33Speaker 1: is bitcoin any kind of competition for gold?
- 11:35Speaker 3: How do you view that? I don't believe it. I mean,
- 11:38Speaker 3: you know, some people have tried to find some kind
- 11:40Speaker 3: of inverse correlation between flows into bitcoin flows out of gold.
- 11:44Speaker 3: We've not been able to find anything that's statistically persuasive
- 11:47Speaker 3: on that. I think the promoters of bitcoin, I mean,
- 11:50Speaker 3: this is why they called it mining. There's no mining involved.
- 11:53Speaker 3: This is a computer operation, pure and simple. But they
- 11:55Speaker 3: called it mining because they wanted to seem like gold,
- 11:58Speaker 3: maybe take some of the away from gold. I think
- 12:01Speaker 3: that was what they were trying to do, and this
- 12:03Speaker 3: digital gold thing. Look, the returns have been stellar in
- 12:06Speaker 3: the fifteen years since bitcoin was launched. I can't deny
- 12:09Speaker 3: that not a problem, but it is all about returns,
- 12:13Speaker 3: whereas gold I think Todd mentioned the diversification benefits, as
- 12:18Speaker 3: I say, the protections that gold offers too, those are
- 12:21Speaker 3: really really crucial for investors.
- 12:24Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you know, you've got to look at
- 12:26Speaker 1: it this way, guys. We could be on the precipice
- 12:29Speaker 1: of a psychological shift of major investors, countries, nation states
- 12:34Speaker 1: simply saying all right, we think that this is the
- 12:36Speaker 1: better asset to hold. If that kind of tilts forward
- 12:40Speaker 1: and you start to see the domino's fall, including things
- 12:43Speaker 1: like a strategic reserve coming out of the US, this
- 12:47Speaker 1: could be the case where bitcoin actually does overtake gold
- 12:50Speaker 1: in terms of that stable asset going forward. If you
- 12:54Speaker 1: just look at what polymarket is saying, will bitcoin hit
- 12:57Speaker 1: one hundred k and twenty twenty four very clearly right
- 13:00Speaker 1: now a high probability at seventy one percent chance of
- 13:04Speaker 1: it actually happening. I'm in agreement with that. I think
- 13:07Speaker 1: we are going to get the one hundred before the
- 13:09Speaker 1: end of the year. In Nvidia earnings though, is one
- 13:12Speaker 1: that you've got to watch, and that's happening after closed today,
- 13:15Speaker 1: and this could trigger a three hundred billion dollar market
- 13:18Speaker 1: swing if that does occur, You're talking about an eight
- 13:20Speaker 1: percent swing after earnings, potential three hundred billion. What does
- 13:25Speaker 1: that do. There's a lot of companies that this will affect.
- 13:27Speaker 1: I think it will to a certain extent, draw a
- 13:30Speaker 1: little bit out of the maybe the mag seven with
- 13:33Speaker 1: exception of maybe Tasla. And the other thing that I
- 13:35Speaker 1: think it factors into is some of the AI tokens
- 13:38Speaker 1: that we'll see over in the all coin markets and
- 13:40Speaker 1: possibly some other AI plays on you know, the trad
- 13:43Speaker 1: fi markets. So be looking very closely at Nvidia because
- 13:46Speaker 1: they did have a little bit of a trigger warning
- 13:50Speaker 1: that we're coming in to how they perform in this
- 13:53Speaker 1: particular period. So I think this is a This is
- 13:56Speaker 1: a very critical one for Invidia and it will also
- 13:59Speaker 1: think of be a critical one for the S and
- 14:01Speaker 1: P five hundred. Just in President elect Trump also team
- 14:05Speaker 1: is now considering the first ever White House crypto role.
- 14:08Speaker 1: This will be a big one because it will continue
- 14:10Speaker 1: to drive home his presence in the crypto space, and
- 14:13Speaker 1: I think it's made it very clear that he's going
- 14:16Speaker 1: to go in this direction. There is word that we're
- 14:19Speaker 1: probably going to see another opportunity here for a new
- 14:22Speaker 1: SEC chair that's coming out of a different selection process,
- 14:26Speaker 1: and nothing's done yet, but the likelihood of seeing Genzler
- 14:30Speaker 1: replace is real. And I think if we get a
- 14:33Speaker 1: position in the White House that would be a crypto
- 14:35Speaker 1: role that would be significant for legislative, for strategic preserve,
- 14:41Speaker 1: but also for some of the strategies I think globally
- 14:44Speaker 1: around the financial system that could play out into a
- 14:47Speaker 1: lot of these major tokens. Tokens like the XRP token.
- 14:50Speaker 1: You look at what is going on with their stable coin,
- 14:54Speaker 1: also take a look at where stable coins in general
- 14:56Speaker 1: are going with USDC and many others that will probably
- 14:59Speaker 1: start seeing break through because remember JP Morgan most likely
- 15:03Speaker 1: will launch. I think we're going to see a lot
- 15:04Speaker 1: of banks get into that in the future. Other things
- 15:07Speaker 1: I want to hit on right now, and that, of course,
- 15:10Speaker 1: is Trump nominated Cantor Fitshales Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce.
- 15:14Speaker 1: This is a big deal because Lutnik is a huge
- 15:16Speaker 1: bitcoin advocate and he will be the Secretary of Commerce,
- 15:21Speaker 1: and I think that is again reaffirming his position, meaning
- 15:25Speaker 1: Trump's position on digital assets and the position that the
- 15:28Speaker 1: United States will be taking around digital assets. All right,
- 15:32Speaker 1: picking up here on polymarket for the Secretary of Treasury,
- 15:37Speaker 1: this one doesn't look as good to me in terms
- 15:39Speaker 1: of potentials. You've got Kevin warsh here and also Scott Bessen,
- 15:44Speaker 1: both of them. If you guys go do the research,
- 15:46Speaker 1: you'll ark learn a little bit more tied towards central
- 15:49Speaker 1: digital bank currencies, also tied a little bit to the
- 15:51Speaker 1: source camps. I'm not really in charge of or in
- 15:56Speaker 1: behind this one in terms of the selections that are
- 15:58Speaker 1: being thrown out there right now. Mark Rowan don't know
- 16:01Speaker 1: enough about him. Bill Haggerty, he has been a pro
- 16:04Speaker 1: digital assets and a handful of others, but we lost
- 16:07Speaker 1: Howard Luttnik, which was I thought was being considered pretty closely.
- 16:11Speaker 1: And then of course his new assignment as Commerce Director
- 16:14Speaker 1: is going to be a little bit different. So we'll see.
- 16:17Speaker 1: Hopefully President Trump is got the right kind of advisors
- 16:21Speaker 1: out there, because this is a very key position right now.
- 16:24Speaker 1: Secretary of Treasury is a big one that will help
- 16:27Speaker 1: move this forward, especially around legislative fronts, but more importantly,
- 16:31Speaker 1: how we look at global policy throughout our partnerships with
- 16:36Speaker 1: other countries. So big deal, all right, here we go.
- 16:39Speaker 1: Kevira worsh seems completely at odds with real Donald Trump
- 16:42Speaker 1: agenda on trading bitcoin and cbdc's and this is the
- 16:45Speaker 1: point I'm getting at. This would not necessarily be the
- 16:48Speaker 1: perfect pit. But hey, listen, this may end up not
- 16:51Speaker 1: even being someone that is in that list. So Trump
- 16:53Speaker 1: may come around the end with a complete surprise pick
- 16:56Speaker 1: here for this position. So we'll see if he does it.
- 17:01Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking for an outsider. Hopefully we
- 17:04Speaker 1: can get that done. Last up here, guess what coinbase
- 17:08Speaker 1: is about to do or has already done, and that
- 17:11Speaker 1: is they're introducing USDC rewards in the Coinbase wallet four
- 17:16Speaker 1: point seven percent right now apy for USDC just holding
- 17:20Speaker 1: that in your wallet on chain. So this is significant guys,
- 17:25Speaker 1: because most of the time you have to go through
- 17:28Speaker 1: traditional banking or exchanges or even in some cases when
- 17:33Speaker 1: you're dealing with brokerages, to get to this kind of
- 17:36Speaker 1: level of returns. You'll be able to do this on
- 17:40Speaker 1: an unchained wallet. This is significant, guys. We could see
- 17:44Speaker 1: a lot of different projects starting to move in this direction.
- 17:47Speaker 1: That is very bullish for I think crypto in general.
- 17:50Speaker 1: We're gonna be covering a lot of this throughout the week. Obviously,
- 17:52Speaker 1: if as we get closer to one hundred K, I
- 17:54Speaker 1: think this is going to be, as I said, a
- 17:55Speaker 1: critical time for bitcoin as well as the rest of
- 17:58Speaker 1: the market. Make sure subscribe to the show right now.
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