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AFC East Division Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are continuing our preseason run through every division in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the NFL. We are breaking down every single team what
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: happened to them since last season ended, Additions, subtractions, projections, prospects.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: How does the seventeen game season impact their season win totals?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: How does that impact their division title? How does that
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: impact their opportunity to win the conference, the super Bowl,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: et cetera, all of it. Today's subject the a f
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: C East Fascinating Division. I'm going to be joined as
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I always am, by my bff, my compadre, my campaignier,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. That me is that time for me to go?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: It's time for you to go. Let's go. Why are
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: you making an awkward pause? I was just waiting for
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I thought you had more. You never know you, Chad,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: You're you're a man of many words. Listen, when I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: start riffing, I don't even, honest to god, I don't
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna say. When I started, I just go, so,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: how good of a weekend did you have? Chat? Tell everyone?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: How good of a weekend? Chad? Let me let me
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: give you even a little bit more background last week.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday, I flew my wife and I flew to
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. We stayed there until Friday. It was just
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: a quick trip, but we spent uh Wednesday and Thursday
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: and part of Friday with my best friend in the world.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: His name is Matt Rosenberg and he lives in Marin
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and he's been mentioned on the show before. He's the
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: guy that I used to bet against every single weekend,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and then two years ago we bet every single game
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: for the NFL and we ended up winning quite a
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: bit of money. We've got fifty dollars on every game.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: No matter what, we ended up winning quite a bit
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: of money. Um. And so he and I grew up
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: together in Chicago. His wife is from Boston. She's a
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: huge Patriots fan. We're huge Bears fans. He's got three kids,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: two older boys. The oldest boy is a Bears fan,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the middle boys a Patriots fan. So, of course, on
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Thursday afternoon, the Patriots had their first game. Mac Jones plays.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: His middle son, who's sixteen, is going nuts about the
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Patriots literally every single play. Like by halftime, we've all
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: checked out. We're having drinks, like hanging out, and his
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: son is still screaming about the rookie who's running the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: kickback all the way for the touchdown right, And we're like,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: what the fuss is going on? And his wife was
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Matt's wife was like, all the Patriots game is still on.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: We talked about Mac Jones the whole time. I'm ripping
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones. He's terrible. No one should have taken him.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: He's coming back at me saying mac Jones was brilliant.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Look at the way he was calling plays, at the line,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: he was changing things up. He was so accurate. Whatever,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I'm like, he's no Justin Fields. Saturday comes. It's one
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: o'clock here in the East Coast. Got back to my
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: house in Connecticut at two am Saturday morning, got up,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: going about my business, doing my thing on the couch
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: at one o'clock, ready to watch the game. I watched
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: every snap. Me and my younger son watched every snap
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of the Bears preseason game. My text to my buddy
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Matt as I was watching the game, Justin Field will
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: go down. Don't shake your head at me. Don't shake
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: your head at me. Justin Fields will go down as
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the most consequential draft pick in my lifetime. As a
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Bears fan. I'm fifty years old. The Bears in my
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: lifetime have drafted six Hall of famers Walter Payton, Dan Hampton,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Richard Dent, Jimbo Covert, Brian or Locker, Mike Singletary. Justin
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Fields will matter more to this franchise than any of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: those players. I'm telling you right now. He was fucking brilliant.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: He was brilliant. He will like Sid Luckman, the Sid
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Luckman bobble head that I am holding right now. He's
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: shaking his head because he is so proud of the
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: way Justin Fields played. Bear down, Dad. Do you want
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the truth? You just want to live in your own
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: little world. Wow, to me, there is no separation. Um.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I hate being that guy, but yeah, none of this matters.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Of course, it looks great. I'm happy for all these
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks, but it's also irrelevant. I mean, Bears fans
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: of everyone should know how you're relevant. This is literally
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Mitch Robinski took you guys to the playoffs back to
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: back years and he's gone, I'm my guy sitting here
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: with Carson Wentz. Guy got us to the super Bowl,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: got us to the number one seed in the playoffs.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: He's not on my team anymore. So it's one of
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: these where I tried to shoot on people all the excitement.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But of all these five quarterbacks, I would say the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: only one I saw that I would be like, Okay,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: they might actually have something here. Crazy to say, because
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I don't believe in the kid either, was Zach Wilson.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: He had a bunch of throws where I was like, Okay,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: that's a legit NFL arm. Nothing against fields. I love
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: fields too, But when he said things kind of slowed
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: down out there for me, I was just like, oh
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: my god, please get this guy out of the league already.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, Yeah. He say things kind
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: of slowed down out there for me, But all he's saying.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: All he's saying is that he got comfortable. The pace
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: sort of came back to normal. He got the jitters out.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: He's not out there saying, oh yeah, now it's gonna
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: be easy. And every game, I'm gonna throw a couple
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: of touchdown pass us. I'm gonna have a hundred and
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: seventy five combined yards. I'm gonna outrun corners to the sideline.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be able to play fake and find tight
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: ends wide open the goal line. He's not saying that.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: He's not saying at all. All he said was in
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: that moment the game slowed down because he got more comfortable,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: and by the way the game should slow down. He
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: was playing against second and third string NFL players. He
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: is a first There was a couple of first and
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: second round picks out there, though, Like, I'm not shooting
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: on him for that. I'm just shooting on him for
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: like when he's when he says these kind of things,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think he understands how that's just another target
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: on his back now and please that is. But it's
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: just like from who, dude, I am so ready to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: shoot on Justin Fields now for the rest of his life.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: For saying that after one preseason game, playing a half
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: of a preseason game, I was just like, who the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: fund does this kid? Thinking, Yeah, you're so taking it
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: out of context. Justin Fields is a beautiful person with
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: speed and power and arm that is as great as
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: his hair. And even if it doesn't happen year, he
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: will be doing things for the Bears over the next
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: decade that no quarterback has ever done in the history
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: of this franchise. Well, I hope he does it this year.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I bet him. I don't know if you did, but
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I've been him on Rookie of the Year, so I'm
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I'm in on Justin Fields. But it was just one
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of those where it's like, man of all the people
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: getting the most hype, his hype right now is so insane.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I think his odds like split in a half for
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year after that, which just should have.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, dude, he again, he looked great against that team.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: And again people want to say it was second third
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: team guys, but it's like these are first and second
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: round draft picks that were playing for Miami and that
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: that second half. So I'm I'm drinking the kool aid.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: But it's more in one of these where it's just like,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: oh God, this is such classic preseason stuff, like what
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: we talked about last week, Sam Bradford through three touchdowns
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: in the first quarter against Green Bay for the Eagles.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: All these Eagles fans like, oh, we our QB of
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: the future Sam Bradford. It's it's just one of these
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: things where it's like, Okay, people just take a step back.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It's one of these things where it's just preseason. You know, well,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: for me, uh like Mac Jones arguably had a great
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: game against I have already forgot who they played the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: other day. Um, and I was I was shipping right
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: washingt football team. I was shifting on Mac Jones and
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: trying to dunk on a sixteen year old and tell
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: him how bad his quarterback of the future is and
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that Mac Jones is number ten because he's the tenth
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: worst quarterback in the draft. And um, forty eight hours later,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I am like irrational exuberance over Justin Fields. Um, so
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I totally get it. I'm happy Beans. But I've never look,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: like I said, I'm fifty years old. I've never had
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: this feeling about a Bears quarterback in the preseason ever,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I felt. I remember when a came I felt good about.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: No, no no, no, no, no. First came. No no no, no, no, no.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I hate j Couler first came. I hated him when
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: he was in Denver. I thought, I thought, there's no
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: way a player like Jay Cutler ever wins, because I
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: do think as a quarterback, if you're super talented, you
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: still kind of need to lead your team. They want
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to believe in you. And if you're not talented. You're
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: a game manager. You need to recognize that and rally
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: your team around you, and they have to feel like
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: you're confident enough that you won't get in the way.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Jay Color was an uber talent who was an uber asshole,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: and like that was that was the reputation when he
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: was in Denver. I had so many stories about people
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: hating him in Denver from the community, and then so
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: many stories of people in Chicago hating him. Um so
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I never felt good about good about Jay Culer. Yeah,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: that's true. And again, like we talked, I sent you
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: the link to watch the NFL films on the Hey,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: rookie Justin Fields is so likable, just such a cool dude,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: so relaxed. So again I hope, I hope for the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Bears fans Chad like you, I hope you guys are right.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: But it's just like, this is my favorite time of year.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It's just a never ending hype team every team you know,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: going eighteen seventeen and o uh, it's just one of
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: these really fun time of the year where people are
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: just so hyped out. You mentioned we we talked about
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the that we're gonna do the a f C East today, UH.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: For the first sable future, this will be a Chicago
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Bears podcast for the first ten to thirty five minutes,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: whatever it takes. Then we'll get to the main event.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: You can think of it like if you listen to
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: this podcast and you don't want to hear me talk
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: about the Chicago Bears. It can be like the Mark
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Marin podcast where I only I fast forward, like the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: first fifteen minutes to get through his spiel and then
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: get to the interview. You can do that. A f
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: C East fascinating division right now, happy now, happy now,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: making it happy spirit, A lot of spirits spirit happen.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: The Bills obviously everybody's favorite, Josh Allen new massive deal.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I mistakenly bet on them. The Patriots a lot of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: people believing this is a bounce back year for them,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: regardless of what happens with Cam. The Dolphins a team
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that really outperformed last year, and so the big question
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: mark is to UH. And then the Jets, who are
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: perpetually rebuilding and have a brand new quarterback in Zach Wilson. Breakdown.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Before we even get to any of the odds, you know,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: or season win totals, division odds, Conference astro blads breakdown
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: from you, who do you think improved the most, who
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: at the best transactions, Like whose talent got that much
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: better in the off season. That's so hard to say
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: because everyone's gonna it's like, you know, it's a loaded question,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: where of course, I guess you could say that Patriots improved.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: They're getting all these guys back off the COVID list,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and they spent all this morning in the off season.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I don't really love any of the moves they made,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Like they spent a ton of money on two tight ends,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: which was bizarre to me in the first place. And
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: they've put a lot of draft capital now into a
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, which you know, I think Mac Jones is
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: pretty solid, but he's coming from the number one team
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: in college football to arguably a bottom five offense with
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. They just don't have receivers, and I don't
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: know we we we we can argue what we want,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: but their old line is definitely gonna be improved um
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: from last year as well. So if we're going just
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: strictly off who improved the most off their team last year,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it's definitely give me the Patriots for this division. What's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: most interesting for me about mac Jones, and this was
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the argument I was having with my sixteen year old
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: friend is to me, the KPI that matters most when
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: judging quarterbacks is how many games did they start in
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: college and how many how did they perform in those games?
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: To me, that's always been the best barometer. And in
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence in justin fields, you've got incredible numbers to
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: look at and a huge data set to look at.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones not much, Trey Lance not much, Zack Wilson
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: not much, and mac Jones not only that he was
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: doing it in a shortened season against teams that were
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: weakened by COVID, playing with an offense that include to
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: top ten wide receivers, and so how can I possibly think, oh, yeah,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: this guy really has it based on what I saw
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: from college football. Yeah, definitely was. Zack Wilson did play
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: three seasons. Like what Chad's gonna saying is he had
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: his first year it was like thirteen touchdowns, twelve interceptions,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: like fifteen touchdowns, tenor receptions, and then he had crazy
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: year last year of over thirty touchdowns. So with one
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of the best offensive lines in football against playing nobody right,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: and so when I right, like would I go with Mac?
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: It's um Again. He didn't look terrible in their preseason game,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: but it was like, you know, it was five yards passes.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: He wasn't taking a little shots downfield. He tried to
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: take shots, but he didn't complete any. And it's one
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: of those where I, again we were going to talk
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: about with this division, I just can't back the Patriots.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I can't back Cam Newton because I've seen Cam can
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: look great in preseason. He looked good right now when
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: he's healthy, well we've seen it after he takes a
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: couple of hits and his body breaks down a little bit.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: By week five and six, Cams just not gonna be reliable.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: So for me, the Patriots, they've just been a cross
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: off team where I'm not even really factoring them into
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: this division at all. Right now, Wow, that that is interesting,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: not even thinking about them all right, all right? Because
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: people people want this to be like the Patriots of
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: yesteryear with Tom Brady stepped in and took that team
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. That defense were full of Hall
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of famers. The Patriots had an incredible amount of talent
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on that defense. It's not the same defense this year.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: It's it's definitely it's one of these things. You're p
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: we just need to adjust how they think about the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Patriots and the team they are. Like again, I think
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Belichick is a great coach. We can talk about the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: season win totals. I can see why people are taking
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the over, but I just can't do it. I just
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: look at the talent they have and I think, man,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: they are just lacking so hard on all offense. They
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: can have the greatest running game in the world. That's
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: not gonna win them games in this day and age
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: we've just seen the NFL has change where you get
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: a quarterback that can make those big throws, and I
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: just don't think they have that right now. You know
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: what's interesting? Uh, the New England Patriots odds to win
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl or to win the a f C
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: are sixteen to one. They are a little bit lower
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: than the Dolphins, and the Dolphins are about sixteen and
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: a half to one, But the Dolphins are plus three
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: to win the division. The Patriots are plus three fifty.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: What does this mean? How do I how do I
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: analyze this? It's just all about that what money has
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: been bet on what, and it all depends on what
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Sportspeak looking at. It's why like we want to name
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: their sports book. There's a sports book right now that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: you can get to UH to have the most interceptions,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: that ten to one. But then you can go to
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: a different sports book and it's four to one for
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: two to get the most interceptions. So again, it's all
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: about what money has been bet where. That's what's really
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: moving the lines right now in these different things. But
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: if you want, buddy, we can dive into this group
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: because it's it's interesting. We're looking at the bills right now.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: There's still minus one fifty on FanDuel to win this
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: division and that really sticks out to me. I would
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: love to bring on Matt Mitchell here. Does that not
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: feel like the easiest bet to make in your life?
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Then win in this division at minus one fifty. The
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: whole thing makes you want to puke my guts out.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: But seriously, Matt, like you look at this team as
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: a fan, is it all of a sudden uh perfect
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: timing for you? Because not only is it Buffalo minus
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: one fifty two UH to win the an f C
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: East plus five fifty to win the a f C
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: that second after the Chiefs. And by the way, right now,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: right now, the Buffalo Bills are uh plus twelve dred
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl twelve to one. The only
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: teams ahead of them Chiefs and the Bucks. What has
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: been going on with the Buffalo Bills because that that
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: number has changed? Like, what is going on here? Simon Man,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: it's there's too many things the even process there. It's
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: one of these where again I hate being that guide,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Chap and this is why you hired me. I have
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: to be the person that just stops people's happiness, not
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: kind of hit them with the truth. And it's we've
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: seen it time and time again. Um, it's one of
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: my favorite things too about the NFL. So there's four
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: teams right every year in the conference finals, and we've
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: seen it. History just tells us every time all these
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: four teams, one of them is not even gonna make
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. So again, you can go through it. Maybe
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: every now and then some year all four teams do
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: make it, but it's just it's just the way it
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: works that one of these teams is gonna fall out.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: So if I just give you the four teams, the Chiefs,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the Bills, Tampa Bay in Green Bay. Who feels the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: most likely to fall out? It feels like it's the
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Bills because they're an unproven team where everything went right
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: last year. Josh Allen went from completing completion percentage to
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: above six. He went from you know, the ranked quarterback
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in the NFL the top four and one season. He
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: made that big of a jump. So my job here
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: is to say what is the most likely thing and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: will history keep repeating itself? And I look at this team,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: there's so many parallels with them in the Eagles. The
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Eagles the year they went to Super with Carson Wentz, uh,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: they were the number one seed coming out. Carson Wentz
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: had an incredible season, and we saw what happened the
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: following year. The NFL kind of figured out Carson Wentz
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They kind of figured out the Eagles
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: offense a little bit. The Eagles went nine and seven
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: because everything wasn't as nice and easy as it was
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the year before. And I think this is the same
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: thing we're gonna see with the Bills. The Bills kind
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of steam rolled their team, like their division. Last year.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: They had a couple of coin flip games. I remember
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: that Rams game at home. They should have lost, stand
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: up winning that one. It's one of these things where
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of things went right for the Rams last year,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I mean the Bills, and I'm been on the things
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: not to go right, and the fact that they're right now.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: They're the top three of the highest bet total on overs.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Everyone's pounding this over. It opened up a ten and
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: a half. I've seen some books now at eleven, but
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: it's plus like one thirty plus one forty to take
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the under. It's it's been hot. It's been one of
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the biggest public bets so far this year. Their win tolls,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: so I have this team great out ten point two wins.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I love the under here, especially when it's sitting at eleven.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I think the Bills are you know, I don't hate
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the value on them for the division because who are
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: they going up against. Their quarterbacks in the division are
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: cam to uh and you know Zach Wilson. It's just
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: one of these things where they might win this division
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: by default. But it scares me that's only minus one fifty.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I don't get how this isn't a bigger line where uh,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I honestly thought this would be up to minus two
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: hunter By now just because of all the loves the
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Bills are getting, so I think people need to be weird.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I think the sports books telling us something here by
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: leaving this line solo and taking so much money on
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the Bills. Are they're saying, you know what, either they
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: believe in Miami or they believe in the Patriots, say
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: one of those two teams. The sports books are saying,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: people are sleeping on these teams, and they're they're too
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: heavy on the Bills. Where everything once again went right
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: for the Bills, E Street, It's just not going to
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: be that way this upcoming season. I think they're telling
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you they believe in the Patriots because the Patriots Super
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Bowl odds are some are shorter by by by a smidge. Uh.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I mean the odds to win the FC and the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds for Miami and New England are both
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: thirty three to one Vandel They're exactly the same. So
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: what I do think what you're seeing is people this
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: is Bill bella chicken hype. To me, it's people thinking, Okay,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: bad year, getting rid of Brady cam comes in, didn't
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: have the training camp, got Covid is still beloved by
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the team, um can he improve when they get some
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: weapons back, will Belichick be able to figure out a
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: system that works better for them? I think that's I
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: think that's what you're seeing. Yeah, I've talked to plenty
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: of professionals that they're in on the Patriots. But when
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: I asked them, what are they can do a week
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: seven when Cam goes down, it's Mac Jones coming, and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: they don't really have an answer. It's like, I'm with them.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: It feels like it should be the Patriots to be
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: that team. But I've told you many times, I'm so
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: in on Miami just because on paper, this defense, without
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: a doubt, to me, is the top five defense in
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: this league. I think Miami secondary is easily number one
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: in the league. They have the best corners, they have
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: really good safeties. I'm banking on two. It taking a
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: step up here, and it's just because of the value
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I'm getting played out, Like, I think the value is
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: good enough to take him a four to one or
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: thirty five to one to win the Super Bowl. Where
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to me, this division it's it's up for grabs. I
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: know how people feel about the Bills, but like I'm
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: trying to explain to them, what's more likely Josh Allen
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: to get this huge contract and then throw for six again, No,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: it's not. We've just seen the NFL that choose and
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: spit these guys out. Like I'm trying to explain to people,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz team got to a super Bowl on one
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: He's on a different team. Jared goff took his team
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: to a super Bowl. He's on a different team. It's
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: one of these things where your boy Mitch Drobiski kept
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: taking you guys to the playoffs. He's the backup now
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to Josh Allen. It's just one of those just so
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: much turnover, That's what I'm betting on. It's nothing against
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I believe the hype. I think this guy's
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the real deal, is a quarterback. But I just bet
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: on their being regression because we've just seen a time
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: time again, there's just always regression in the NFL. What
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen got this big contract. If Matt Mitchell was
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: able to speak, then maybe he wants to weigh in
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: on this too. But it did feel very Jared Goffian
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: to me, big contract off of one season, a massive
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: improvement from one season to the next, and and Is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: it setting the quarterback up to fail? Is it over
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: investing in a guy and giving up too much of
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: your team? Uh? Based on that one season, these guys
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: watch every single throw, they must feel like they're seeing something.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: But then again, they gave they gave it to Jared
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Goff and Sean McVey is supposed to be the smartest
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: guy in football. Yeah, I think that's a it's an
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: unfair comparison to compare Josh Allen to Jared Goff From
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a tools perspective alone, I think that's intellectually dishonest. But
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: from a like does it make me anxious? No? I
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: mean that's someone that survived, you know, the Billy Joel
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Hobert's and the alex Fan Peltz of the world quarterback
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: in this team for nine years. I don't stop my money,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: But you don't pay for one season. We're paying for
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: a trajectory. And from the quarterback that started in trying
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: to jump over Vikings defenders and playing like a total idiad.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: So the way he played last year, every year has
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: shown an improvements. So I think it it's not necessarily
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: paying for one season of success, it's paying for a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: trajectory of improvement only in house with the current people
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: that are there. They're paying him to take that next
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: step without having to wait for take that step um
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: and ultimately that's probably as good as you can get
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: other than the home situation where he just led them
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: to it let him to the Super Bowl. I'm not
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: mad about it. I don't feel like it's gonna come
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: blow up in our faces, And ultimately I'd rather have
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: him do it now than have become a giant distraction
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: in a future season, regardless of how it goes to
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: save a couple million. I only am thinking about the
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: fact that you just insulted me in a way that
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: is meaner than anybody's insulted me in years. I know
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: as a as an author of at least two books,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I knew that calling you infectually dishonest would be hitting
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: you where it hurts. Also, our own Chris Rabon would
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: be the first person to point out that all of
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the people catching footballs for Josh allen In and I
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: believe as well, are like essentially out of football, and
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: we're out of football almost immediately, that he had without
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: question the worst collection of past receivers at the running back,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: wide receiver and ten end position like assembled in like
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: league history. So I think also once the adults around
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: to be improved, I don't think it's improven as all
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: that surprising. Mike Kerns, who is one of the partners
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: at the Churning Group which founded the Action Network, he
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: was the guy that recruited me from ESPN to come
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: help everybody launch the Action Network. At his favorite saying
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: and my favorite saying of his whenever we were sitting
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: down to review performance of Action, let's be intellectually honest
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: about what we're looking at, which I love, is a
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: phrase I love as a practice. It really just means
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: put aside your personal feelings, only look at it based
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: on the data that you're seeing, which is, you know,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: in theory, going to be clean and impartial. And I
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: feel like I try to exercise that and you just
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: my feelings. The best part about Mike currents and extremely
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: intellectually on a sky, no one would be a beyond approach,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and like exactly that's why, Like if he would make
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: a suggestion, I feel like it would be hard to
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: counter it unless I had better data than he had.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Do we need do we need to call him about golf?
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: We probably should call him about Josh Allen and Jared Goff.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: There is no more person, there's no person better at
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: delving into intellectual honesty than he is, and he will
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: give us the right answer. Matt I want you to
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: uh clip this segment. We're gonna send it to him
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: and he will weigh in and we will give the
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: listeners the answer next week. You got it. Let the
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: record show that I'm not saying he's gonna be Jared Goff.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I'm just letting people know that it's all good. Right now.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Life is good for you guys at this quarterback, but
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: it can change in the season. It's it's just been different.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: The league used to be where you had a quarterback,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: you just had him for twenty years. If he was
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: good for one or two seasons, he just kept him.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if he sucks keeps sucking. You just
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: keep rolling them out there. Like I don't know, Matthew
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Stafford really feels like he stands out where he's a
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: guy that really did nothing, but he always does something.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: It's one of these guys where it's like, well, what
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: are you gonna do? You have Matthew Stafford, You're really
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: gonna get better. You can get worse than him. It's
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: just one of these guys where he's always in the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: middle level. So I think that, of course he's a
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: great quarterback. But we're trying to bet a value based
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: job here, and that's my job. They're trying to find
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: value for each division. So I'm not saying I do
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: think Buffalo is gonna win this division. But if I'm
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: just playing the numbers and what's the most likely outcome
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: and what has the highest percentage of happening, you know,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Miami has the best value right now in this division.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: That's just one of these things where they're closer to
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: two fifty or two hundred they are the three thirty
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: three fifties. So that's what I'm just trying to say
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to people, is like, you're looking at these divisions. Of
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: course the Bills are a great team. We have to
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: think yourself, Okay, is the NFL going to figure out
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: how to stop an offense with the whole offseason to
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: do so? And these coin flip games that they won
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: last year? You know again, after that Arizona game they
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: won seven straight games or eight straight games, how unlikely
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: that is to happen again. It's pretty unlikely. It's just
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: one of these things where NFL just has so much
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: turnover year to year. These things don't happen like that.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm banking on. I want people to understand, like,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: we love the Bills here, we're one of the biggest Bills.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, Matt Mitchell is playing the Bills music constantly.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I love watching the Bills offense too, But I just
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: have to bet what the most likely thing is to happen.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: The most likely thing is he's gonna regress and he's
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: gonna have a shitty year this year, Josh Allen. So
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: that's why, like in fantasy football, we can talk that too.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away from Josh Allen. I'm still I'm still
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: drafting Stefon Diggs. I still love that guy's upside. But
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: with Josh Allen, I just think people are buying what
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: happened last year. They're not really paying for what's gonna
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: happen this year. All right, well, let me let me
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: let me try to summarize it, because we're unloading a
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: lot of valuable information here. I think from a strictly
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: from a Bill's perspective, they have been bet up now
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: ten and a half some places eleven. You like them
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: under you don't mind the minus one fifty to win
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the division, but because you feel like that's a little
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: bit low compared to where it should be. Yeah, it's
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: good value, but you're like Miami at plus three better.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: So does that mean you've bet both Miami at plus
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: three and Buffalo at minus I I did the Bills,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: but I did them with like, you know, um a
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: class like I do these weird parlays. I like to
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: do divisional parlays. So I might have done the Bills
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Chiefs in Green Bay or the Bucks, the Bills and
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs like that, that kind of thing. I pair
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: them up like that. I just don't do stand still
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: bets with division just because you know, if I'm gonna
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: have something tie it up for six months, I'd rather
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: have a plus four hundred plus five hundred and a
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: three team parlay then just bet them minus one fifty
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: straight up. So I definitely do it a little weird.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: But it's it's not that I'm scared to bet it more.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: But it's one of these where I've just seen it
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: time and time again. There's just so much turnover. They
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: could be the best team right now in August, and
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: then come December, somehow the Bills are struggling to get
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the eight to nine wins. It's it's just football is
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: so weird that way, which when ship goes wrong for
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: these teams, that goes totally wrong. So I haven't put
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: too many eggs in this basket. But of all these divisions,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: these are one of these, Like, you know, this feels
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: like this division where it can go wrong quick and
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: the Bills are going to run away with it by
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: week eight. So that's why it's one of those where
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: like I feel comfortable having them in a couple of parlays.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: I truly have no idea how many bets you have
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: on a going into the season and then on a
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: weekly basis, Like your volume of betting is astounding to me,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: and I I have no doubt like on that parlay,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: those two parlays you mentioned, you probably put a thousand
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: dollars down in both of them, way more. But it's
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: one of those two where like people are asking me
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: about my unit size, I told them I'm only doing
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: this unit ship because you asked me to do that.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not a unit better. Like someone was like, why
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I had like bets for the priests, and I said
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I want six units. That's not true. I probably won
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: like eleven or twelve thousand dollars, but I don't know.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: It's a unit to me one thousands of two thousand.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. By the way, I didn't I've never
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: asked you to do units. Well, you told me not
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: to do cash because I told you. I was just
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: gonna say, like I bet ten k on this. By
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: the way, I have never said, don't tell me cash.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Never in fact you did. Or maybe it was Scott
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe let get back, well it was Scott Miller. Then
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: he's an idiot, you guys. Well, no, I think it
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: was like he was saying he doesn't want people to
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: be betting, like like, if there's a game I bet
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: ten units on, Am I really telling people to bet
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: ten units? I don't know how much ten units is
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: to them? So like that was all saying him like
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to do one or two or three
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: unit kind of bets because like I don't know. I
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: didn't really know. I don't know. I don't understand the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: whole unit thing. Let me be clear to you right now.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Let me be clear to you right now. If you
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: tell me you made a bet and I say how
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: much was the bet, just tell me the fucking cash.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Don't give me this unit bullshit. Now. Scott Miller, who
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: I love to death uh and is one of the
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: members of our executive staff and oversees a lot of
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: various elements of our product and our business uh and
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: used to work for me. That's how good I am
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: at training people up. He came in working for me,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: and now like I gotta listen to what he says
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: about certain elements of the business, which is fucking bullshit.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: I know why Scott Miller is saying that. I know
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: exactly why I saying it because people who are in
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the app like they bet on units, and it's it's
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: better for them to be able to say, oh, Simon
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Hunter is a professional. Better he bet three units on
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: this that's a lot. That means I should feel comfortable
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: betting a lot of my units on this game for
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: purposes of this podcast. I want to know the fucking
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: cash number. Yeah, we can do that stuff. I would
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: say week one, Um, I bet you by now on
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: futures and week one bets, I probably have like six
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: figures out there, but all this money has just rolled
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: over from that trade land still on the draft, like
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: this is none of this is new money. So it's
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: definitely one of those were saying I took a hit
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: on the draft and I lost a lot of money.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: It would be lower. I want to tell people how
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: much I'm betting, but I also don't want people putting
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: their whole life savings into these certain bets. You know
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: what I mean. I get it. I get it the
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: volume you are betting out there, in the size of
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: the bets, like it's not like you're just betting the
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: five games we talked about every week, And I want
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: people to understand too. That's how they should learn from
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: how I bet where. If I posted the Action app,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I feel really good about it. That's not my only
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: action for the weekend. I might have a hundred other bets,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: but if I'm putting into the app, that's what I
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: feel the strongest about because I'm giving them those bets.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I'm just like everyone else. I love Action. I'm always
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: betting games. There's a difference between betting ten dollars on
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: a game and betting ten thousand. That's what I'm trying
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: to get people learn here. It's like, you don't need
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: to bet a big money every night. You can just
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: bet a couple of money to win dinner for that night.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Um it's again, it's funny thing I'm trying to people
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: to get learn here. It's don't force these bets. It's
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: that's what the bookmaker wants you to do. All I
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: want to spend a few minutes. I never bet anything
• 34:02
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  Speaker 1: problem called one eight five to two seven zero zero
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• 36:14
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. I
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: do want to spend a few minutes so I know
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: where you stand on Buffalo under the season win total?
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Uh parlay in the minus one fifty, Miami you like
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: plus three win the division. You think that's the best value.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: You're not in on New England. What's their season win total?
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: About nine? And you're under that under on the nine.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: And are you over on Miami which is also at nine?
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I think over on Miami? All right? So the only
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: other team that I want to talk about, and then
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, like you like Miami at thirty three two
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: one is a good value play probably nothing else. And
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: of those three teams, um, you just mentioned Zack Wilson.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: What I thought, I'm not a fan of I think
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: he'll be a bust. I think he's the biggest bust
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: of that class. Um Uh, you mentioned the complete opposite
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: from the preseason. What did you see that made you
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: feel this way? He said, some thros give me some examples. Yeah,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: because preseason, again, he could have thrown five picks. In
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: my opinion, would still be what it is right now
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: if he played the exact same he did. Where I'm
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: looking for confidence and professional throws, and he had both.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Where he's stepping into the pocket, he was making good reads,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: he was moving well in the pocket to like Tray Lance.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: He was getting all the hype. Tray Lance moved like
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: ship in the pocket. He made terrible reads for the
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: forty niners. It's one of these where he looked like
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: a guy who just took a whole season off trail Lance.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: So that made sense why he played too bad. And
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: when I was looking for Zack Wilson was again I'm
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: there with you, like coming in. I don't get the hype.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: He I did not think he should have been drafted
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: number two overall. But if this kid can move in
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: the pocket like he moved in that preseason game, and
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: if he can make smart reads and fit the ball
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: into tight windows. This kid's gonna be starting this league,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. So we'll see how he
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: progresses through the years and how he's gonna do this
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: upcoming season. But this upcoming season, I'm gonna be fading
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: them because again, he's an idiot. He's doing he did
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of really stupid ship too, because he's a
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. And again, nothing against um the Jets team,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: but Joe Douglas is building a team that was pretty
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: much started at zero. They just had so many holes.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: So right now, the only thing good about this team
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: is their d line. That's not winning the many games
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: this upcoming season, so I'm on their underwin total as well. Um,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I just have all the rookies right now. I was
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: way down on him the most, and coming after that game,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: I just I feel better about what the Jets have
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: in the future in the sense that at least they
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: know they this kid can be a professional. Now that
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: you have the brains, I have no idea. I don't
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: know how smart, how hard of a worker this kid,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Zack Wilson is, and that's everything, Like you can be
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: the most talented athlete in the world. If you don't
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: put the work in, if you're not smart enough, you're
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: never gonna last in this league. And that that for
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: for all the Jets fans, I would say that would
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: be the biggest worry. Is this kid, you know, if
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: he's success after the first or second year, what the
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: hell is his life going to be like? Because this
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: is some kid coming from you talk to New York City,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: and it does those little things like that and make
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: me worried about what Zach Wilson will turn into in
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the future. Uh, if we're being intellectually honest, it feels
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: like part of your bias for Zach Wilson is because
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: your expectations were so low. It's so low in the
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: sense that I thought, like I just said, I thought
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: he was gonna look like Trey Lance did, where you
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: might have one or two good plays, but he was
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: gonna be five of twelve and just look like a
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: rookie out there throwing against like, you know, starters where
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: I can't get over how good he looked. I just
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: can't believe that, like this kid actually has legit down
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: place because I watched a lot of the film, like
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I'm watching the Digitts practice where this kid's throwing terrible
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: passes and get picked off every rather playing It's like,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: holy ship, they might have made a huge mistake here. Um,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I think you're saying that just because I'm shooting on
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: your Justin Fields sing where I love Justin Fields. I
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: thought he did good. It's just one of those I
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: try to make. I'm trying to find the middle ground
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: both these guys where it's like you're looking for how
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: they progress and what their progressive are in the pocket.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Like the thing you took away from Justin Fields which
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: made you feel so happy was this guy doesn't need
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: a good offensive line. He can move in the pocket
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: and get outside the pocket where we know the Bears
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: have a ship offensive line. Who do you want to
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: start any Dalton who's a statue or Justin Fields who
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: can move and run in the pockets. So that's why,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: like I get what the Bears are saying, Like you
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: guys much rather have Justin Field start than any Dalton.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: No one's saying no to that. But when I look
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: at Zack Wilson, I just think this kid's coming from
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: you know, just gets just have so much smoked one
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: up his ass. Coming out of Utah that like, I
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: was gonna think this kid is gonna come in and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: just think he was hot ship where it sounds like
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: he's actual hard working kid who's like putting his nose
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: to the ground and actually doing the stuff you need
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: to do to succeed. So again, I did have low
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: expectations for him. You were right about that, but I
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: would say I'm gonna start raising them now because I've
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: seen the potential that other people are seeing. The Zach
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Wilson Simon. There is no middle ground on this topic.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: There is the sky, there is the moon. That's it.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: When you are a top quarterback, the expectations are, you
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: come in, you make this team better, you take them
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: to the super Bowl, you win m VPS, you go
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: to the Hall of Fame. That's it. That's that's my expectation.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: By the time I retire, I am going to finish
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: my career in media in Canton at Justin Fields Hall
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: of Fame ceremony. Okay, we'll talk taking Justin Fields out.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: We're sitting here right now in early August. Which one
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: of these guys is Rosen, Which one of these guys
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: is going to be a journeyman off a team in
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: the next two to three years. If you had to
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: put my own, would it be Zack Wilson, Zach Wilson
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: and Mac Jones. So I've actually switched rom on Trevor
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Lawrence now, which we're gonna talk about during the season. Look,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: we haven't gotten there yet. We haven't gotten there yet.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I know we're gonna save that for when we do
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: that division. But I people are gonna see. I'm gonna
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: be one of the biggest haters on him, um because
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: to me, he's just the more I've seen, the more
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I read, it feels like he's got a lot of
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: bus potential right now on when that especially with Urban Meyer,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: who I think is gonna be in over his head
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: once the season starts. Man, all right, well that is
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: setting us up for a great a f C South podcast.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Uh Matt Mitchell, Can I call an audible since we're
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: since we're foreshadowing right now what we think about the
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: a f C South Right now we have uh NFC
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: South on the agenda for Thursday? Can I call an
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: audible and make a f C South the team for
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the conference the division for Thursday? Reason an FC South
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: was slid it for it next Thursday. Is it looks
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: like we'll be joined by former n FC South player
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Darius Butler, formerly of the Okay. Then you know what,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna change it. I'm not gonna change by
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the way. I'm intellectually honest about the process and I
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: understand my place in it. And Matt Mitchell, who launched
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: the number one new football podcast in the country last week,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus. Go check it out with Colin
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Wilson and Stucky and also our brand new employee at
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: the Action Network, college football inside er extraordinaire, Brett McMurphy,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: two time pew Litzer nominee. Go check out that podcast,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Go subscribe to that new channel. It's brilliant. It's amazing.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell put together the whole plan to roll that
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: thing out. That's why I would ask him. I wouldn't
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: just say, hey, we're gonna switch it up, because I
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: knew he had a plan. Matt Mitchell incredibly intellectually honest.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: So for those reasons alone, we're gonna stick with the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: NFC South beginning next Thursday. It's good. It's a good
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: week long tease. That's what we're giving people now, right
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: now we know we got Darius Butler, and we'll get
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Darius Butler and what he thinks of Trevor Lawrence and
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Simon thinking that he's a bust. This has been the
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download the podcast from
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Apple podcast, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Will
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: see you on Thursday for the NFC South Breakdown. Until
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: next time, I love you,