Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Kuril visit follows Pacific Fleet drills and Russia-China drills near Japan

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Kuril visit follows Pacific Fleet drills and Russia-China drills near Japan · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin has made his first visit to
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  Speaker 1: the Koreel Islands in Russia's far east. The four southern
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  Speaker 1: islands of this archipelago are claimed by Japan, where they
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  Speaker 1: are known as the Northern Territories. The Soviet Union sees
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  Speaker 1: the islands back in nineteen forty five and deported their
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  Speaker 1: Japanese population of about seventeen thousand people. Putin's trip reignited
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  Speaker 1: the long standing dispute and drew an angry response from
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  Speaker 1: Japan as relations between the two countries continue to worsen.
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  Speaker 2: On an island known in Russia as Iturup, thousands of
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  Speaker 2: kilometers from Moscow, Vladimir Putin tasted caviat at a local
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  Speaker 2: fish processing plant, visited a hospital, and met with pupils
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  Speaker 2: at a school. According to state news agency TASKS, Putin
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  Speaker 2: is the first Russian president to travel to the remote
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  Speaker 2: archipelago since dmity Medidev in twenty ten. While the Kremlin
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  Speaker 2: trump the visit, Japan strongly condemned it Iturup, known as
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  Speaker 2: Etofu in Japan, is one of four islands running in
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  Speaker 2: a broad arc from Russia's Coamchatka Peninsula down to Japan's
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  Speaker 2: main northern island, Hokkaido. Tokyo has maintained its claim to
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  Speaker 2: the archipelago even after it was seized following Japan's surrender
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  Speaker 2: in World War Two.
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  Speaker 3: The northern territories are an inherent part of Japan's territory,
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  Speaker 3: both historically and under international law. This latest visit to
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  Speaker 3: Etuofu Island by the incumbent president of Russia runs contrary
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  Speaker 3: to Japan's consistent position regarding the northern territories. Furthermore, it
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  Speaker 3: hurts the feelings of the Japanese people and is absolutely unacceptable.
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  Speaker 2: This dispute has long dog relations between Japan and Russia.
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  Speaker 2: The islands on our home to around twenty thousand Russian citizens.
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  Speaker 2: Despite the harsh climate, they have rich mineral deposits and
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  Speaker 2: fishing grounds. The islands have also been fortified with coastal defense,
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  Speaker 2: missile systems and fighter aircraft. Japan views Putin's visit as
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  Speaker 2: a provocation. Ties between the two nations worsened after Japan
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  Speaker 2: joined countries sanctioning Russia for its full scale invasion of Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: In protest, Japan's Foreign Affairs minister told the Russian ambassador
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  Speaker 2: Putin's visit would have an extremely negative impact on Japan's
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  Speaker 2: relation with Russia.
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  Speaker 4: We summoned the Russian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry and
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  Speaker 4: we strongly protested Russian President Putin's visit to Etorifu Island.
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  Speaker 4: We also requested to have the message reported back to Moscow.
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  Speaker 2: Set Russian and Japan never signed a formal peace treaty
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  Speaker 2: after World War II, and the Koro Islands are the
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  Speaker 2: main reason for this impass.
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  Speaker 5: Well, I'm joined now by Robert Ward.
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  Speaker 1: He's the Japan Chair and director of Geoeconomics and Strategy
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  Speaker 1: at the International Institute for a Strategic Studies. It's good
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  Speaker 1: to have you with us. You know, Vladimir Putin he
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  Speaker 1: has had what more than two decades and plenty of
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  Speaker 1: opportunities to visit these islands.
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  Speaker 5: He never did. I mean, why now?
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  Speaker 1: And what message is he's sending to Japan by physically
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  Speaker 1: setting foot on one of these islands.
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  Speaker 6: I think the message is a mixture of stick and carrot,
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  Speaker 6: perhaps with more emphasis on the stick. It's important to
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  Speaker 6: understand these islands have been a thorn in the side
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  Speaker 6: of Japan Russia relations and Russia Soviet to Japan relations
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  Speaker 6: for many many many many years, and the negotiations on
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  Speaker 6: what happens to them Russia controls and Japan claims Them's
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  Speaker 6: the sort of ebbs and flows. Clearly, since since Russia's
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  Speaker 6: full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, the
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  Speaker 6: negotiations on these islands have stalled and relations Betweenjapan and
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  Speaker 6: Russia are very poor. In terms of what Putin wants
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  Speaker 6: to signal, I think this is a lot of this
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  Speaker 6: is about strategic signaling. I think he's trying to show
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  Speaker 6: solidarity with Jujinping, with China, his strategic partner, if you like.
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  Speaker 6: I think he'll also be signaling displeasure with Japan's support
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  Speaker 6: for Ukraine. I think that's also given. But interestingly, all
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  Speaker 6: eyes are focused on the visit to Etoloff, his first visit,
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  Speaker 6: as you rightly say. But previous to that, he was
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  Speaker 6: in Saklin and that was his first visit there for
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  Speaker 6: thirteen years or so, and in that visit he was
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  Speaker 6: waxing lyrical about how good relations, relatively good relations were
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  Speaker 6: under Prime Minister Abbot, who was in office from twenty
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  Speaker 6: twelve to twenty twenty, where there was some dayton so
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  Speaker 6: there may be a sort of push by Putin to
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  Speaker 6: say this is the stick, but if we were to
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  Speaker 6: go back to the Abba years, things might be much better.
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  Speaker 1: And what do you read into what Vladimir Putin when
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  Speaker 1: he did on the island, such as eating caviare in
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  Speaker 1: a fish plant, visiting a hospital, visiting a school.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, obviously this was our choreograph.
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  Speaker 6: All very important strategic signaling. Yes, But if I was
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  Speaker 6: sort of picked two items out of what he did,
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  Speaker 6: I think the first would be the visit, the visit
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  Speaker 6: to the school with the connection with the drones, so
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  Speaker 6: where the children are taught to design program fly drones.
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  Speaker 6: And this segue is nicely for Putin with his big
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  Speaker 6: push to improve Russia's drone capabilities and now of course
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  Speaker 6: links back to the war, Russia's war against Ukraine, where
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  Speaker 6: drones have become really very important. So he was signaling
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  Speaker 6: I think the Russian States backing of this technology. And
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  Speaker 6: then it's filtering right down to right down to the children.
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  Speaker 6: And the second thing I think I'd highlight is a
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  Speaker 6: visit to the fish processing factory. Is this part of
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  Speaker 6: the world is remote for many of us, but it
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  Speaker 6: is really rich in natural resources, for example fish, So
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  Speaker 6: I think he was sort of signaling again the importance
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  Speaker 6: of the region for obviously militarily but also in economic terms.
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  Speaker 5: You know, you mentioned the Ukraine War.
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  Speaker 1: Closer Russia China military cooperation, North Korean support for Russia's
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  Speaker 1: war in Ukraine is putin is he testing Japan's alignment
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  Speaker 1: with the West here?
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  Speaker 6: I think he's he may see Japan as a sort
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  Speaker 6: of weak link in the front against against Ukraine. Japan.
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  Speaker 6: The straight up Horrmuz crisis, for example, has highlighted how
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  Speaker 6: vulnerable Japan's energy supply is. So Japan gets most of
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  Speaker 6: its energy from from the Middle East, so there's there
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  Speaker 6: are concerns in Tokyo about energy security, for example, and
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  Speaker 6: Japan still imports some gas from Russia, for example. But
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  Speaker 6: I think for Japan, I think the worry will be
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  Speaker 6: that this visit coincides with what I see as an
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  Speaker 6: intensification of Russia's activity in East Asia, particularly linked to
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  Speaker 6: those countries that Japan views with some concern owing to
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  Speaker 6: the security threat, and that includes of course North Korea, Japan,
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  Speaker 6: and Russia. Rather than North Korea of ink to a
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  Speaker 6: an energy agreement. Russia and China have also done a
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  Speaker 6: joint naval drill for example as well. So there's a
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  Speaker 6: lot of coordinated action from Russia and its strategic partners
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  Speaker 6: that will give Japan cause for concerns. So I think
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  Speaker 6: Putin sees that and maybe thinking that he can make
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  Speaker 6: a strategic point to Tokyo to try to, if you like,
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  Speaker 6: soften Tokyo's stance, particularly for example on Ukraine.
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  Speaker 5: Mister word, I've got about thirty seconds. Let me just
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  Speaker 5: ask you this.
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  Speaker 1: The dispute over these islands has prevented Russia in Japan
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  Speaker 1: from ever signing a post war peace treaty. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: it's been called a silent dispute. Is that silence? Is
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  Speaker 1: it ever going to become history?
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  Speaker 6: Well, the former residents of these islands, Japanese residents, they're
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  Speaker 6: obviously aging, so there's a sort of biological process at
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  Speaker 6: work here. But this for Japan is an important issue
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  Speaker 6: of sovereignty, which I think you saw clearly in the
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  Speaker 6: very quick reaction from the Prime Minister Takaichi and also
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  Speaker 6: from the Foreign Minister. So while this issue remains unresolved,
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  Speaker 6: I think it would be very difficult for Russia and
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  Speaker 6: Japan really to move forwards in a meaningful way in
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  Speaker 6: their relationship.
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  Speaker 1: Mister Ward. Good to have you on the sure. We
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  Speaker 1: appreciate your insights. Thank you, thank you,