Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Epstein Gets The Headlines… The Destruction At HHS SHOULD + Trump 2.0 Has Made Capitol Hill Irrelevant

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Full Episode - Epstein Gets The Headlines… The Destruction At HHS SHOULD + Trump 2.0 Has Made Capitol Hill Irrelevant · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: that code. Hello there, I'm Chuck Todd. Welcome to another
1:52
Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast. Let's just say, in my
1:56
Speaker 1: personal sports fandom, I experienced the old wide world of sports,
2:02
Speaker 1: full of victory, agne, agony of defeat, all in the
2:05
Speaker 1: same day. The thrill of Miami's victory. I will tell
2:08
Speaker 1: you more at the U during my college football update
2:13
Speaker 1: and get into the details. My picks, my my nit picks.
2:18
Speaker 1: I have plenty of them, particularly in the Miami offense.
2:22
Speaker 1: But there are some observations on that game that if
2:27
Speaker 1: you weren't there, you don't fully appreciate the game, and
2:32
Speaker 1: you're probably are stupidly believing Ohio State's gonna blow Miami
2:35
Speaker 1: out because that ain't gonna happen that, I will guarantee you,
2:40
Speaker 1: but I will explain when I get to that. But
2:42
Speaker 1: of course the agony of defeat was the most bizarre.
2:46
Speaker 1: If you know, when you do all these, you know,
2:49
Speaker 1: the dumbest thing that has been added to televised sports
2:52
Speaker 1: is the so and so and so team as a
2:56
Speaker 1: ninety seven percent chance to win. Well, I mean, you know,
3:00
Speaker 1: to quote Hans Solo, don't ever give me the odds,
3:03
Speaker 1: you know, type of thing, because that is not why
3:06
Speaker 1: any of us watch sports. All right. Yes, there's a
3:09
Speaker 1: handful of gamblers that may watch sports just to make
3:11
Speaker 1: sure they have bet the odds correctly, but most of
3:16
Speaker 1: the time we watch sports for the improbable, not the probable,
3:20
Speaker 1: and so those stats are sort of weirdly annoying. All
3:24
Speaker 1: that set the fact that the Bears were down ten
3:28
Speaker 1: at the two minute warning, had to make a field
3:30
Speaker 1: goal and swirling win recovering on sidekick, and then they
3:34
Speaker 1: stupidly don't go for two on the time on the
3:37
Speaker 1: touchdown and play for overtime. It worked out for them,
3:42
Speaker 1: but it was one of the more shocking decisions because
3:44
Speaker 1: it kept the Packers back into that game. But it's
3:47
Speaker 1: just at some point that except I am reminded of
3:51
Speaker 1: myself that regular season NFL, no matter how important that
3:55
Speaker 1: game is, pales in comparison to college football. You have
4:00
Speaker 1: this kind of when you care this much about a
4:03
Speaker 1: college football team, and anybody who's a college football fanatic,
4:06
Speaker 1: remember fana is short for fanatic, You probably know what
4:09
Speaker 1: I mean. But I will save the college football as
4:11
Speaker 1: I always promise. For the end of the podcast, let
4:14
Speaker 1: me give you the full rundown of what we got
4:16
Speaker 1: here and what we got all week. This is a
4:18
Speaker 1: holiday week. Instead of three downloads this week, there will
4:22
Speaker 1: be two, although there'll actually be a third download, but
4:26
Speaker 1: it'll be sort of a flashback, if you will. An
4:30
Speaker 1: interview I did six a few months ago that we
4:33
Speaker 1: think is especially relevant now. That will come later this week,
4:37
Speaker 1: but I will have two new episodes this week, obviously
4:40
Speaker 1: the one you're listening to right now. And my guest
4:43
Speaker 1: is Lenn Caldwell. She's the chief Washington correspondent for PUCK.
4:47
Speaker 1: She covers Capitol Hill as well as anybody that's out there,
4:51
Speaker 1: and we do basically a little bit of a year
4:53
Speaker 1: in review and a year in preview of Congress. This
4:59
Speaker 1: was the year that Congress completely gave up its right
5:03
Speaker 1: to governance. Apparently I'm being a tad snarky, but only
5:07
Speaker 1: a tad right. We have seen, you know, Congress giving
5:12
Speaker 1: up its power has been just like the Hemingway definition
5:17
Speaker 1: of bankruptcy. First it's slowly, then it's quickly. Right, Congress
5:20
Speaker 1: has been slowly giving away executive authority to presidents probably
5:25
Speaker 1: for a good forty to fifty years, and then all
5:28
Speaker 1: of a sudden you got one who decided they were
5:31
Speaker 1: really going to exploit that, and then suddenly their power
5:34
Speaker 1: was lost quickly. But it's an important conversation. We also
5:38
Speaker 1: get in a little bit in twenty twenty six. Plus.
5:42
Speaker 1: Leanne is just one of those friendly people. I've worked
5:45
Speaker 1: with her at NBC over the years. I just enjoy
5:50
Speaker 1: the way she reports, the way she analyzes things. And
5:52
Speaker 1: I think, as many of you know, if I know
5:54
Speaker 1: the person really well that I'm interviewing, I think it
5:56
Speaker 1: only makes the conversation that much better. I also have
6:01
Speaker 1: my toodcast time machine. We're going to We're not going
6:07
Speaker 1: to go that far back. We're going to go back
6:10
Speaker 1: to the very early nineties. And I'll just give you
6:16
Speaker 1: one word clue. It's a pretty easy one if you're
6:19
Speaker 1: of a certain age, peristroika, and we'll leave it at that.
6:22
Speaker 1: I'll do a little Q and A. Let me get
6:25
Speaker 1: into a few things here, obviously. Look, the most dominant
6:28
Speaker 1: story of the weekend is for sort of one set
6:32
Speaker 1: of political junkies. And I say one set because I
6:35
Speaker 1: don't count my I believe I'm a political junkie. I
6:38
Speaker 1: don't count myself consumed with the Epstein store. I feel
6:42
Speaker 1: like I know the broad strokes of the Epstein story.
6:46
Speaker 1: There's no doubt there might be details that embarrass individuals,
6:50
Speaker 1: but I think we know the broad strokes. What are
6:52
Speaker 1: the broad strokes? Rich guy gets access because he's rich
6:57
Speaker 1: and has a plane, and too many famous people who
7:00
Speaker 1: want free rides. Too many politicians who want free plane
7:03
Speaker 1: rides and big donor checks look the other way at
7:07
Speaker 1: shitty character people. Okay, bottom line, we've seen this is
7:11
Speaker 1: this is this goes back forever. If you've got enough money,
7:15
Speaker 1: you can essentially bribe your way out of bad character traits.
7:21
Speaker 1: That's really what we have here. Here's a rich guy
7:23
Speaker 1: who used his wealth to pretend he had powerful friends
7:28
Speaker 1: and famous celebrity people. And why did these celebrities and
7:32
Speaker 1: powerful people get suckered into Epstein's world Because they're they're
7:38
Speaker 1: consumed with their own celebrity, and they enjoyed sort of
7:42
Speaker 1: the trappings of wealth, the trappings of exclusivity. And and
7:47
Speaker 1: I'll keep going back free private plane rides. So it
7:51
Speaker 1: is not to me, it is it is, it is not.
7:55
Speaker 1: I'm not here to excuse anybody that is connected to
7:59
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein. Actually just the opposite. To me, it's sort
8:01
Speaker 1: of like, great, it's an MRI. I'm gonna find out
8:04
Speaker 1: who's high character, who's low character. And for me, your explanation.
8:12
Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, you wanted
8:14
Speaker 1: to hang out with the rich people, You wanted to
8:16
Speaker 1: be in the celebrity. Anybody can be suckered into it.
8:19
Speaker 1: It is a lot of fun. I've been to some
8:21
Speaker 1: of these exclusive VIP opportunities at big events and sporting events.
8:25
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, it's pretty cool and all of
8:28
Speaker 1: us I think, whenever we've had that brief moment of
8:31
Speaker 1: access behind the velvet rope, it's really cool to be
8:34
Speaker 1: behind the velvet rope. And then sometimes you get behind
8:36
Speaker 1: the velvet rope and you think, why is there a
8:38
Speaker 1: velvet rope here? Should there even be one at all?
8:41
Speaker 1: But anyway, I am digressing, But what are we learning
8:44
Speaker 1: from the Epstein files. Well, if you run the government,
8:48
Speaker 1: you get to you know, and you decide you're going
8:50
Speaker 1: to follow the law. And it looks like the the
8:54
Speaker 1: Justice Department is, you know, going to follow the law
8:56
Speaker 1: on their own pace. They didn't nothing in the law
9:00
Speaker 1: said what order they had to release the files, and
9:02
Speaker 1: they're taking advantage of this. Am I surprised. I don't
9:06
Speaker 1: think any of us should be surprised that the first
9:09
Speaker 1: tranche of files would be which was going to get
9:13
Speaker 1: the most attention, would have the least amount of Trump
9:15
Speaker 1: in it and the most amount of Bill Clinton in it. Right,
9:18
Speaker 1: this is you know, it's like being shocked that there's
9:20
Speaker 1: gambling going on. And if you need to know what
9:23
Speaker 1: that reference is, just go watch the movie Costablanca. And
9:26
Speaker 1: by the way, if I don't care how old you are,
9:28
Speaker 1: go watch the movie Costablanca. First of all, it'll help
9:30
Speaker 1: you understand half the references of your parents and grandparents
9:34
Speaker 1: if you've never seen the movie. But second, it's a
9:36
Speaker 1: really good movie. It's still a really good movie. It
9:39
Speaker 1: holds up pretty well. Yes, I'm not going to get
9:43
Speaker 1: into the parts about personal relationships, but the sort of
9:49
Speaker 1: the larger concept of the film it holds up pretty well.
9:53
Speaker 1: So go watch it so you can understand some of
9:55
Speaker 1: these references. But the point is is that I don't
9:58
Speaker 1: think we should be surprised that the Trump Justice Department
10:02
Speaker 1: is if they feel as if there will eventually release
10:06
Speaker 1: all the stuff that includes Trump, it will be probably
10:11
Speaker 1: in as low of a profile day as you can
10:14
Speaker 1: possibly have, and so I suspect will continue to see
10:20
Speaker 1: the as whatever early stuff they can that they will
10:23
Speaker 1: frontload anything that embarrasses Democrats and backload anything that embarrasses
10:29
Speaker 1: Trump or any allies of Donald Trump. I say allies
10:33
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump because remember, they'll be Republicans early on
10:35
Speaker 1: in this, but if they're not allies of Trump, they'll
10:38
Speaker 1: have no problem trying to embarrass those folks. And of
10:42
Speaker 1: course you do have the Democrats on the House Oversight
10:44
Speaker 1: Committee who've been doing their own version of trickling out
10:47
Speaker 1: sort of information that is, you know, emphasizes stuff that
10:53
Speaker 1: makes Trump or people that Democrats don't like look bad,
10:58
Speaker 1: like we saw with the David Brooks situation. David Brooks
11:01
Speaker 1: gave an explanation saying it was the only time he'd
11:03
Speaker 1: ever attended event with Epstein at it didn't quite know.
11:06
Speaker 1: I think it's a plausible explanation. I think people you
11:10
Speaker 1: look at a track record over time, right, being in
11:15
Speaker 1: a room once with Jeffrey Epstein shouldn't be an indidable defense.
11:20
Speaker 1: It's when you've consistently done it, when you knew that
11:23
Speaker 1: there were questions about him, when you knew sort of
11:26
Speaker 1: as Donald to use the words of Donald Trump, he
11:28
Speaker 1: kind of likes them young. It's not as if this
11:31
Speaker 1: was a hidden secret. But again, people look the other
11:34
Speaker 1: way because he was rich and he was offering them
11:36
Speaker 1: free playing riots. So I'm not surprised that what we're
11:41
Speaker 1: seeing you shouldn't be surprised. And this is one of
11:45
Speaker 1: those stories that if you really care about it, you're
11:48
Speaker 1: going to find something in this release that reinforces your
11:51
Speaker 1: view of all of it. And if you've noticed I
11:54
Speaker 1: didn't say which that's the point. It will simply reinforce
11:58
Speaker 1: your view of all of it. The question and is
12:00
Speaker 1: one of the facts. There will be individual people whose
12:03
Speaker 1: character I think correctly gets essentially demoted in polite society
12:09
Speaker 1: by what we see and what and what we hear.
12:11
Speaker 1: I am sorry, Here's what I hope the real fallout
12:14
Speaker 1: is from this. Can we make character matter again? Do
12:17
Speaker 1: we now see that character is destiny? That character does count?
12:24
Speaker 1: Because you know, here we are obsessing over the Epstein
12:27
Speaker 1: story sort of collectively is sort of in the in
12:31
Speaker 1: the more populist media world. And I say populous, I
12:34
Speaker 1: mean that the influencer culture in this or that, and
12:37
Speaker 1: certainly mainstream media and the in the fight for clicks,
12:39
Speaker 1: in the in the gaming of algorithmic media. Epstein is
12:43
Speaker 1: this sort of you know, sticky story that people want
12:46
Speaker 1: to get to trust. How do I know it's I
12:48
Speaker 1: always know? How do I know it's sticky? When I'm
12:51
Speaker 1: with family and people who are who I don't consider
12:54
Speaker 1: huge political junkies ask me about certain stories. This is
12:57
Speaker 1: one that they're asking me about. By the way, speaking
13:00
Speaker 1: of that, I had a friend of mine the other
13:01
Speaker 1: day during the during the earlier part of the week,
13:08
Speaker 1: asked me, this is an old, old friend of mine.
13:14
Speaker 1: Did Trump really pave over the rose Guard? And he
13:18
Speaker 1: is not And this is my friend is not a
13:19
Speaker 1: huge political junkie. I mean, he's got a great life,
13:24
Speaker 1: runs a uh he's been sort of runs a car
13:27
Speaker 1: dealership and just lives it. Lives a different life, doesn't
13:31
Speaker 1: is it consumed by politics, right, but is smart and
13:34
Speaker 1: follows current events and sort of pays attention, don't get
13:37
Speaker 1: me wrong, But doesn't sit here and pay attention to
13:41
Speaker 1: some of these things. And you know, it's like the
13:44
Speaker 1: rose Garden thing. You know, some of you that are
13:45
Speaker 1: probably listening to this podcast, Oh, I knew he paved
13:47
Speaker 1: over the rose Guard. Yes, because you're kind of into it, right,
13:51
Speaker 1: you've chosen to subscribe to my podcast. You're kind of
13:54
Speaker 1: into politics. But it was a reminder of how much
13:57
Speaker 1: of this sort of ridiculous stuff Trump has done that
14:01
Speaker 1: people haven't noticed or perhaps didn't really believe right. You think,
14:06
Speaker 1: no way he paved over the rose garden. Oh, yes,
14:09
Speaker 1: he paved over the rose garden. He turned he turned
14:12
Speaker 1: out the area outside the Oval office into some sort
14:15
Speaker 1: of nineteen fifties era of Florida patio. I think the
14:19
Speaker 1: only thing missing is a tazzo and the umbrellas. But
14:23
Speaker 1: other than that, that's what he's done. You know. Look,
14:26
Speaker 1: I've grown up in Florida, spending a lot of time
14:29
Speaker 1: in Texas. I love me a good patio bar, don't
14:31
Speaker 1: get me wrong, But I don't think anybody wanted the
14:34
Speaker 1: White House turned into a patio bar, which is kind
14:36
Speaker 1: of what he turned the Rose Garden into. But it
14:39
Speaker 1: was such an incredible reminder about what doesn't penetrate, what
14:43
Speaker 1: doesn't break through. So Epstein breaks through. You know what
14:46
Speaker 1: didn't break through this week was a story about public health.
14:56
Speaker 1: So I, as you know, a few months ago, I
15:02
Speaker 1: was very focused almost week to week about all the
15:06
Speaker 1: damage that I believed Robert F. Kennedy Junior was doing
15:09
Speaker 1: to the nation's health, putting our children in harm's way.
15:13
Speaker 1: And now we have sort of, we do have a
15:16
Speaker 1: pretty good report that puts it to it. And Peter
15:20
Speaker 1: Odez who's one of the world's leading epandemiologists. He is
15:24
Speaker 1: somebody that was a frequent expert I used during our
15:27
Speaker 1: COVID coverage back in the NBC days. Just he's a
15:31
Speaker 1: scientist first, Okay, Now he's an outspoken scientist. He really
15:36
Speaker 1: bothers him when you have people not using science in
15:40
Speaker 1: order to persuade or gas like or mislead the public.
15:46
Speaker 1: And one of his tweets caught my eye where he
15:48
Speaker 1: talked about so the HHETS put out a put out
15:53
Speaker 1: a tweet if you will, that said, let me quote
15:57
Speaker 1: it accurately. So HHS puts out awe that says you
16:01
Speaker 1: are biggest MAHA wins this year. And Peter Otez said,
16:06
Speaker 1: biggest Maha wins. Hey measles returned after twenty five years,
16:09
Speaker 1: whooping cough is back. The National Pandemic Preparedness canceled along
16:13
Speaker 1: with mRNA technology. America's children are now at risk for
16:16
Speaker 1: chronic appatitis and liver cancer, a swing and a miss
16:19
Speaker 1: on autism, and the CDC is in tatters. Now, if
16:23
Speaker 1: you're a proponent of Bobby Kennedy here junior on this stuff,
16:27
Speaker 1: if you are a vaccine skeptic, you may think Peter
16:30
Speaker 1: Otez is the devil, and you may think, oh, he
16:32
Speaker 1: is spinning and he is this or that. But the
16:36
Speaker 1: fact of the matter is what he said is backed
16:40
Speaker 1: up by facts, and what HHS has done is not.
16:45
Speaker 1: So let's start with the extraordinarily alarming numbers. And this
16:48
Speaker 1: to me is nine thousand times more important than the
16:53
Speaker 1: Epstein files. And I'm not trying to belittle the victims here,
16:58
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, what this is
17:00
Speaker 1: administration is doing to our children in the area of
17:04
Speaker 1: public health should alarm folks. So we have now two
17:09
Speaker 1: thousand confirmed cases of measles in the United States. Okay,
17:12
Speaker 1: we're on the verge of losing our measles free status
17:16
Speaker 1: that we've held since two thousand and it's not just
17:20
Speaker 1: whooping cough, which is a brutal respiratory infection and those
17:24
Speaker 1: of us are a certain age. We never thought we
17:26
Speaker 1: were going to get whooping cough. Why because we had
17:28
Speaker 1: a vaccine for it. We have a vaccine for it, okay,
17:32
Speaker 1: and it is back with a vengeance. Now HHS will say, well,
17:36
Speaker 1: this is the reason that measles and whooping cough are
17:39
Speaker 1: back is because the public doesn't trust public health or
17:42
Speaker 1: the CDC. Yes, because of what you've done to public
17:46
Speaker 1: health in the CDC Bobby Kennedy, Judy said, well, the
17:48
Speaker 1: public doesn't trust it. Yeah, because somebody who's completely uninformed,
17:52
Speaker 1: who speaking of character as destiny, pretty much the lowest
17:55
Speaker 1: character person you could put in office given his personal mean,
18:01
Speaker 1: just think about the uncomfortable, gross and disgusting back and
18:06
Speaker 1: forth between him and his digital paramour, Olivia Newsy and
18:11
Speaker 1: that whole. Look. I did not want to get into
18:13
Speaker 1: the Liz of Newsy business, but Kennedy sort of roll
18:18
Speaker 1: in it. This is a creepy, seventy year old guy
18:22
Speaker 1: who had his own really disturbing, disturbing relationship with one
18:28
Speaker 1: of his wives that ended in her suicide. This is
18:32
Speaker 1: a such a low character individual and he's doing all
18:35
Speaker 1: of this. Look, the point is is that this stuff
18:38
Speaker 1: it is. I bring it up because it is a
18:41
Speaker 1: reminder why we should we should care about the character
18:44
Speaker 1: of people that are in public offices, and character should
18:49
Speaker 1: matter a lot. So, yes, there's a crisis of trust
18:52
Speaker 1: when it comes to public health, all due to one
18:55
Speaker 1: man and his crusader crazy and vengeance on the public
19:01
Speaker 1: health entity. And it is Robert Kennedy Junior. The fact
19:06
Speaker 1: that all of this uh is a whooping coffin measles
19:11
Speaker 1: and we didn't we didn't have this at all. This
19:14
Speaker 1: is made Look, there is one thing that collectively, both
19:18
Speaker 1: the scientific community and those in the MAHA world are
19:21
Speaker 1: giving them a little bit of credit, and that is
19:25
Speaker 1: on the issue of food dies. Okay, Doctor Otes and
19:29
Speaker 1: other mainstream medical people agree that the US has been
19:32
Speaker 1: a bit of a wild West when it comes to
19:34
Speaker 1: allowing certain food dies in our foods compared to Europe.
19:37
Speaker 1: Europe much more, much stricter on this stuff, much more
19:41
Speaker 1: careful on this stuff. By the way, I just noticed,
19:44
Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with cheerios. They have a healthier version of
19:48
Speaker 1: fruit loops, essentially gluten free food fruit loops, if you will.
19:52
Speaker 1: And you could see that in the summer they had
19:56
Speaker 1: food died. Now they don't. It's it's pale. They quote fruity.
20:03
Speaker 1: It doesn't pop out of the bowl. But that's okay,
20:05
Speaker 1: tastes great. I like it. It's one of my guilty
20:08
Speaker 1: pleasures at night. It's a version it deserved for me.
20:15
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from
20:19
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen When my father passed away,
20:22
Speaker 1: we didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in
20:24
Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself
20:29
Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to
20:30
Speaker 1: pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had
20:34
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,
20:37
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20:43
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21:50
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about it,
21:52
Speaker 1: especially if you've got a growing family. But while you
21:58
Speaker 1: can give them credit for that, the fact that they
22:01
Speaker 1: have not used take the issue of autism, saying that
22:05
Speaker 1: the science doesn't prove that vaccines don't cause autism. Okay,
22:11
Speaker 1: but what science proves that it could be. There's been
22:14
Speaker 1: no study that is said vaccines trigger autism. So because
22:21
Speaker 1: you've yet to find a study that does it and doesn't,
22:24
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that it isn't scientifically proven yet that it.
22:29
Speaker 1: You see, this is how gaslighting works, right, They sort
22:31
Speaker 1: of makes your mind go wait, what, wait, what the
22:34
Speaker 1: fact of matters? No scientific study backs up the idea
22:37
Speaker 1: that vaccines cause autism, and so then they change it.
22:41
Speaker 1: But no scientific study backs up the idea that there's
22:44
Speaker 1: an open question about it. There's only an open question
22:47
Speaker 1: about it from people who just refuse to look at
22:50
Speaker 1: the science. The scientific answers have said one thing and
22:54
Speaker 1: then getting rid of mRNA technology. And this goes back
22:57
Speaker 1: to what was messaging on the COVID vaccine. In fact,
23:03
Speaker 1: I just did a media hit the other day for
23:05
Speaker 1: a for a for a smaller news organization that was
23:09
Speaker 1: asking me, well, didn't the media contribute to the public's
23:12
Speaker 1: mistrup distrust of public health? You know, I don't think
23:16
Speaker 1: the person is wrong. There was a there were too
23:18
Speaker 1: many people who touted the vaccine as a cure for COVID,
23:22
Speaker 1: touted the vaccine as a shield for COVID. What the
23:25
Speaker 1: vaccine was and what, for instance, what I always emphasized
23:29
Speaker 1: at my coverage of it, what every expert I would
23:32
Speaker 1: be very careful in particular about asking the following question,
23:37
Speaker 1: Does this prevent you from getting COVID? No? But it does.
23:41
Speaker 1: Is it increases the likelihood that it is you get
23:44
Speaker 1: over COVID faster, you're less likely to be hospitalized, which
23:48
Speaker 1: means you're less likely to pass it on. It never
23:50
Speaker 1: said it was a zero, And so what happened was
23:52
Speaker 1: a few people sort of in characterizing it, well, do
23:56
Speaker 1: you know this is going to go away? This is
23:58
Speaker 1: the way to shield yourself. Look, it was a protection, right,
24:02
Speaker 1: It's a ninety eight point six percent type of protection, right,
24:06
Speaker 1: But it wasn't one hundred percent. It wasn't going to
24:09
Speaker 1: prevent you from getting COVID. It was going to prevent
24:11
Speaker 1: you from having COVID kill you. There is a huge difference.
24:15
Speaker 1: It's more like the flu vaccine and how it was
24:19
Speaker 1: how it was communicated, how it was communicated between experts,
24:24
Speaker 1: those of us in the media, back to you interpret it.
24:29
Speaker 1: And so what happened is you had people who exploited
24:33
Speaker 1: the and say, aha, you said there'd be no more
24:35
Speaker 1: COVID cases and I still got COVID. This vaccine doesn't work.
24:40
Speaker 1: And that stuff went like wildfire. And this is what
24:44
Speaker 1: is really sort of given mRNA vaccines a bad name
24:51
Speaker 1: when it is a technological marvel. And if we cut
24:55
Speaker 1: why would we cut funding? Why would you cut funding
24:59
Speaker 1: on a cutting edge to technology. I understand if you
25:01
Speaker 1: want to increase scrutiny of the research that comes out
25:06
Speaker 1: of this, but why would you cut the funding and
25:09
Speaker 1: allow other countries. We're the United States of America. We're
25:12
Speaker 1: the first country in first world. Why would we intentionally
25:17
Speaker 1: put ourselves behind on science? Intentionally put us Again, nobody
25:21
Speaker 1: is saying you just take it as you go. If
25:23
Speaker 1: you want to increase scrutiny of mRNA vaccines, be my guest. Okay,
25:30
Speaker 1: that is helpful to everybody. But you just cut funding
25:34
Speaker 1: is cutting off your nose's space. It's almost like you
25:36
Speaker 1: don't want to hear of the great breakthroughs that mRNA
25:39
Speaker 1: vaccines might be able to create. So it is it
25:44
Speaker 1: is when you see stories like what we see. We're
25:48
Speaker 1: really one of the most devastating parts of the Trump
25:51
Speaker 1: administration this year, all right, is been in the area
25:55
Speaker 1: of public health. And yet this is sort of like
25:59
Speaker 1: it's always kind of a sidebar conversation. It is never
26:03
Speaker 1: and I think part of it is you've got plenty
26:05
Speaker 1: of people who are uncomfortable with the technical aspects of
26:08
Speaker 1: the debate. Don't want to get caught. Trust me, I'm
26:10
Speaker 1: always constantly trying to make sure I'm saying these things correctly.
26:14
Speaker 1: So I think people hesitate to jump into this debate
26:17
Speaker 1: too much because of the technical aspect of it. They
26:20
Speaker 1: don't want to say something that makes them look stupid.
26:26
Speaker 1: But the fact is, let's just look at the results.
26:30
Speaker 1: And ever since Bobby Kennedy Junior essentially became the face
26:36
Speaker 1: of public health, fewer people are getting the viseels vaccine.
26:40
Speaker 1: We're now going to have fewer people getting a hepatitis
26:42
Speaker 1: be vaccine, Fewer people are getting a whooping cop vaccine.
26:45
Speaker 1: He is mainstreaming fringe ideas, fringe beliefs, fringe thoughts about
26:51
Speaker 1: science that are just not backed up by actual facts
26:54
Speaker 1: and figures, and it is putting kids in harms way,
26:58
Speaker 1: and ultimately, I will believe this is a suburban nightmare.
27:02
Speaker 1: I think this is an underrated political issue, and I
27:05
Speaker 1: think it's one. I think it's one that Republicans, particularly
27:12
Speaker 1: in Capitol Hill, ought to be a bit more mindful
27:15
Speaker 1: of speaking of things that I think are sort of
27:21
Speaker 1: a weird moment, and I wanted to I wanted to
27:23
Speaker 1: talk about this a minute because speaking like the Epstein Files,
27:27
Speaker 1: there's another story that I just don't quite care about
27:31
Speaker 1: or get my arms about, but I feel like I
27:32
Speaker 1: have to care about it because I cover politics, and
27:35
Speaker 1: that is this dust up within the world of Maga
27:39
Speaker 1: between Candace Owens, Ben Shapiro, Barry Wise, Megan Kelly, all
27:46
Speaker 1: of this. You know, if you're if you know, you know,
27:50
Speaker 1: but if you don't, you don't. And I consider myself
27:55
Speaker 1: somebody who really doesn't know, but I have to know,
27:58
Speaker 1: so I do my best to follow it pretty closely
28:01
Speaker 1: to try to understand it. But what you're really seeing,
28:05
Speaker 1: and I think the best is sort of what we're
28:07
Speaker 1: watching because a lot of elected Republicans care a lot
28:11
Speaker 1: about what Tucker Carlson is saying, what Candace Owens is saying,
28:16
Speaker 1: or what Megan Kelly is saying, or some folks that
28:19
Speaker 1: are really kind of fringe people to sort of normal Americans, right,
28:23
Speaker 1: the folks that are not obsessed with politics every day.
28:27
Speaker 1: In fact, these are people that have no name. ID
28:29
Speaker 1: was sort of the broad swath of normal voters. Right.
28:33
Speaker 1: Maybe they've heard of Tucker Carlson, but Candace Owens, who's that, right?
28:37
Speaker 1: They may remember Megan Kelly from from mainstream media days.
28:41
Speaker 1: Ben Shapiro, Oh, they've seen some things about him, you know,
28:45
Speaker 1: maybe Barry Wiss now, but it's sort of these aren't
28:47
Speaker 1: sort of well known figures to sort of a broad
28:51
Speaker 1: swath of the middle. I know this because unlike the
28:54
Speaker 1: story like Epstein, which did penetrate. You know, this story
28:57
Speaker 1: really hasn't penetrated. But I've had a few people try
29:01
Speaker 1: to like, what is this mess? Can you explain this?
29:05
Speaker 1: Candase owns and all this stuff? And I think the
29:07
Speaker 1: best way to think about it is that the maga
29:10
Speaker 1: influencer infighting that we're seeing right now is actually very
29:14
Speaker 1: similar to sort of the relationship between the Democratic Party,
29:17
Speaker 1: say twenty fourteen to twenty twenty two, to the groups,
29:23
Speaker 1: where it felt like the party was more captured by
29:26
Speaker 1: the groups. So if you look at sort of twenty
29:31
Speaker 1: fourteen to twenty twenty two Democrats went through, you might
29:34
Speaker 1: call it a great awokening. Right the woke movement started
29:38
Speaker 1: to take off, and it appears to be a mirror
29:41
Speaker 1: image of what we're seeing in maga world right now,
29:44
Speaker 1: and especially in Republicans right. They're very striking when you
29:47
Speaker 1: compare the groups on the left to the influencers on
29:50
Speaker 1: the right and how they've hijacked the conversation away from
29:53
Speaker 1: the average voter and sort of the same thing that
29:56
Speaker 1: helped Republicans paint Democrats as sort of man. They're consumed
30:01
Speaker 1: with the groups. They don't really care about you. Well,
30:03
Speaker 1: we're now seeing Republicans are consumed with their influencers. Are
30:07
Speaker 1: they really care about you? Right? So, from in twenty
30:09
Speaker 1: fourteen to twenty twenty two, the Power Center and the
30:12
Speaker 1: Democratic Party were these groups, right, they were the non
30:14
Speaker 1: profits or the activist NGOs, the academic departments, you know,
30:19
Speaker 1: always coming up, you know, with a new way to describe,
30:24
Speaker 1: to describe a group of people as victims of something. Well,
30:28
Speaker 1: in the right, that power Center is independent podcasters, it's
30:33
Speaker 1: ex personalities, Twitter personalities, alternative media mobiles, right, like Megan Kellen.
30:40
Speaker 1: And what were these groups trying to do. On the left, Well,
30:43
Speaker 1: they were creating purity tests, right, if you didn't use
30:45
Speaker 1: the latest terminology right, latin X right, that was a
30:48
Speaker 1: creation of the groups, didn't come from the actual Latino community.
30:52
Speaker 1: But if you didn't use it, well you weren't you
30:55
Speaker 1: weren't awoke, you were problematic. Well, on the right, it's
30:58
Speaker 1: sort of more. The test is if you don't believe
31:02
Speaker 1: the latest conspiracy theory. You know, Candice Owans has one
31:05
Speaker 1: and something to do with Egyptian airplanes stalking the Kirks
31:10
Speaker 1: in some form or another. I mean, the point is
31:12
Speaker 1: the more I articulated, the crazier it sounds. And you're like,
31:15
Speaker 1: these people have influence. Yeah, they have influenced. If you're
31:18
Speaker 1: not at least buying or just asking questions on the
31:22
Speaker 1: latest conspiracy theory, then you're part of the controlled opposition.
31:27
Speaker 1: You're bought and paid for, right, could be by the Jews, Right,
31:31
Speaker 1: you're bought and paid for by the pharmaceutical companies. You're
31:33
Speaker 1: bought and paid for by the deep state. But that's
31:36
Speaker 1: sort of how right that's that's in the same way,
31:40
Speaker 1: you know, these groups sort of shamed Democrats and what
31:44
Speaker 1: they were doing. Oh you're you know, you're you're you're
31:46
Speaker 1: not woke, you don't really care. It's a similar type
31:50
Speaker 1: of shaming. So what happened, Well, for about ten years,
31:54
Speaker 1: Democratic politicians were petrified of their own activist space. They
31:58
Speaker 1: were petrified of pissing off the groups so that they
32:01
Speaker 1: would back off certain policy solutions because well, of the
32:05
Speaker 1: groups won't like that one, even if it was going
32:08
Speaker 1: to be more popular or actually have a better chance
32:11
Speaker 1: of passing. Well, now what you have with these crazy
32:14
Speaker 1: maga influencers. Republican politicians are terrified of their influencer base
32:19
Speaker 1: and it leads them to entertain some fringe theories that
32:22
Speaker 1: they shouldn't be entertaining and what normal voters find bizarre. So,
32:30
Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting the right is currently late to
32:34
Speaker 1: the party, I guess you could say in terms of
32:36
Speaker 1: institutional capture, right, because for a long time, the Republican
32:40
Speaker 1: Party was a top down organization. The RNC, Fox News,
32:44
Speaker 1: maybe Heritage Foundation a the structures completely change, right, There's
32:48
Speaker 1: no more referee on the right anymore. In the Obama era,
32:53
Speaker 1: the democratic referees were the activists, some of them were
32:56
Speaker 1: in the media, some of them weren't on the right.
32:58
Speaker 1: Fox News was based on the referee. Now, if Fox
33:02
Speaker 1: says something that the base doesn't like, the base just
33:05
Speaker 1: switches to crazy right Tucker Carlson's network, Candice owns YouTube,
33:11
Speaker 1: you know, maybe oan or something like that. And there's
33:16
Speaker 1: sort of an incentive for like to find new weird
33:19
Speaker 1: ways to capture the imaginations. Right, So democratic groups were
33:23
Speaker 1: incentivized to find new forms of systemic oppression to stay relevant. Well,
33:27
Speaker 1: right wing influencers are incentivized to find new conspiracies or
33:30
Speaker 1: hidden truth to keep their subscribers paying. If you just
33:34
Speaker 1: talk about marginal tax rates, you're not going to get
33:36
Speaker 1: five million views. But if you talk about assassination plots
33:39
Speaker 1: and Egyptian airplanes following mega influencers around, hey, guess what
33:44
Speaker 1: you might be able to get five million people. And
33:48
Speaker 1: then try to explain this though to the normal voters
33:53
Speaker 1: right who haven't woke on the left or red pilled
33:56
Speaker 1: on the right. So it did seem as if for
34:00
Speaker 1: gave way too many Democratic politicians essentially subcontracted their brain,
34:04
Speaker 1: if you will, to activist groups. Instead of talking to
34:08
Speaker 1: a plumber in Ohio, right, they talk to the head
34:12
Speaker 1: of a racial justice and Goo in DC to find out,
34:15
Speaker 1: quote what voters wanted. Well, on the right, Republican politicians
34:19
Speaker 1: are subcontracting their brain to influencers, and instead of talking
34:23
Speaker 1: to a small business owner in Florida, they look at
34:26
Speaker 1: what Charlie Kirker Nick Flunt's is. You know, what's something
34:29
Speaker 1: that about Charlie Kirk or Erica Kirk or Nick Fluntes
34:34
Speaker 1: is on X to decide what their base may care about.
34:37
Speaker 1: They've convinced themselves that the act somehow their actual political
34:41
Speaker 1: base cares about what some of these fringe figures think.
34:44
Speaker 1: You know, and there may be a handful of grasstops.
34:47
Speaker 1: But this gets to the feedback loop, right, And the
34:49
Speaker 1: fact is the activists know how to make the politicians
34:52
Speaker 1: seem as if they're hearing from the public when they're
34:56
Speaker 1: really not. They're hearing from organized campaigns, either out rhythms
35:01
Speaker 1: or paid or or some sort of paid campaign of sorts.
35:09
Speaker 1: And I have to be honest, there's a whole vacuum
35:11
Speaker 1: here now. And I think in the same way that
35:13
Speaker 1: I think that, I think the democratic attachment to the
35:16
Speaker 1: groups is breaking. It's not broken yet, but I think
35:20
Speaker 1: they're getting They're sobering up here, and you're seeing more
35:23
Speaker 1: Democrats behave a lot more independently, think a little more independently.
35:29
Speaker 1: I don't know if we see that right right now.
35:31
Speaker 1: On the right, they seem to still be a bit consumed.
35:34
Speaker 1: What does Trump think? A bit consumed what these influencers
35:37
Speaker 1: think first, rather than actually just talking to their voters first.
35:44
Speaker 1: On that side, and in that sense, it's a form
35:46
Speaker 1: of audience capture, right, And it's pretty clear I think
35:48
Speaker 1: Democrats for about a decade were captured by this wolk left.
35:53
Speaker 1: You saw it in the governance of the first half
35:55
Speaker 1: of the Biden four years, particularly with how they handled
35:59
Speaker 1: the board that was done by groups, that was done
36:03
Speaker 1: so they didn't offend the groups rather than just solving
36:06
Speaker 1: the problem and moving on. They eventually figured out that
36:10
Speaker 1: the groups were wrong about this, but they didn't start
36:14
Speaker 1: that process on the border until about the last year
36:17
Speaker 1: eighteen months of the Biden presidency. At this point, I
36:23
Speaker 1: think the rights captured by this crazy right. They're sort
36:25
Speaker 1: of so consumed they've sort of forgotten the plot. And
36:30
Speaker 1: that's the only reason to pay any attention to what
36:33
Speaker 1: appears to be some sort of circle circular firing squad here.
36:39
Speaker 1: I don't even know who stands where anymore between your Candaewans,
36:45
Speaker 1: your Tucker Carlsons, Berry Weiss As you're making Kelly's, you know,
36:49
Speaker 1: the shots across the bars. There's accusations of anti Semitism here.
36:53
Speaker 1: I think there's some real issues there, don't get me wrong,
36:58
Speaker 1: But it's a It's what it really is. It's just
37:02
Speaker 1: a battle for attention. It's a battle for clicks. So
37:07
Speaker 1: to me, the main players that I'm all talking about here,
37:10
Speaker 1: I don't think any of them are very honest. I
37:12
Speaker 1: think they just simply care about their grift. They care
37:16
Speaker 1: about exploiting the moment for maximum financial gain, whether they're
37:21
Speaker 1: part of an independent podcasting network that they've developed because
37:24
Speaker 1: they're refugees from what was a more mainstream version of
37:27
Speaker 1: media that they were in part of, think Tucker Carlson,
37:29
Speaker 1: Megan Kelly, or they just want this relevance and they
37:34
Speaker 1: don't like it that Megan Kelly and Tucker Carlson from
37:37
Speaker 1: mainstream media are taken there and they're going, oh, yeah,
37:39
Speaker 1: well we can go crazier than Candas owns. So it's
37:44
Speaker 1: a I do think it's it's the only reason to
37:49
Speaker 1: pay attention to it is that it is I think,
37:54
Speaker 1: really putting Republicans, you know, sort of the average elected
37:59
Speaker 1: republic can they they are they're way too consumed with
38:05
Speaker 1: what they're input This is exactly like what happened on
38:07
Speaker 1: the left. The left got so consumed about the group's
38:10
Speaker 1: think they stop worrying about what voters think. Well, we
38:14
Speaker 1: now have elected Republicans so consumed about what their influencers
38:17
Speaker 1: think that they've actually forgotten about the voters. And I
38:22
Speaker 1: think that this is something that could you know, could
38:27
Speaker 1: end up becoming yet in especially when when the economy
38:32
Speaker 1: is not good, especially when there's job displacement with AI.
38:35
Speaker 1: Instead of focusing on those problems, they've been obsessed with this,
38:38
Speaker 1: right you can. It's it goes back to the infamous
38:43
Speaker 1: ad that worked against Kamala Harris. She's for they them,
38:47
Speaker 1: he's for you. Well, in this case, these republic elected
38:51
Speaker 1: Republicans seem to care more about they them on their
38:54
Speaker 1: influencer side than the rest of us in the actual
38:57
Speaker 1: voting electric. All right, with that, I will sneak in
39:01
Speaker 1: a break. As you see, I didn't even get to
39:03
Speaker 1: the whole Kennedy Center business. And I'll tell you why,
39:07
Speaker 1: because you know, this is this is Trump's brilliance with
39:10
Speaker 1: his buffoonery, which is, you know, if you if you
39:16
Speaker 1: sort of over index and complain too much, you put
39:19
Speaker 1: his name on a building and it's on an arts building,
39:22
Speaker 1: or it's on the institute a piece. Is this really
39:24
Speaker 1: a big deal? You know, don't take your eye off
39:27
Speaker 1: the ball with the voters. Look, you know, but at
39:30
Speaker 1: the same time, the guy's more obsessed with manufacturing a
39:33
Speaker 1: legacy that is going to get a eras the second
39:35
Speaker 1: he dies, rather than worrying about lowering the cost of
39:39
Speaker 1: groceries for you. So look, I happen to think all this,
39:43
Speaker 1: everything that's been done, all of that, none of it
39:46
Speaker 1: is good politics for him, and all of it is
39:50
Speaker 1: just going to accumulate. It is. It is one of
39:53
Speaker 1: those things. This is incremental and I'm going to just
39:56
Speaker 1: go beat up the same metaphor I use quite a bit.
39:58
Speaker 1: It is it is. This is happening slowly until it
40:03
Speaker 1: ends up happening quickly. And we're seeing this slow build
40:08
Speaker 1: of a movement that is about to come is going.
40:10
Speaker 1: When it crashes, it's going to crash hard, and it's
40:12
Speaker 1: going to seem like it happened quickly. But we're in
40:15
Speaker 1: the middle of seeing a lot of it. Whether it's
40:17
Speaker 1: the influencers becoming their own version of a woke right
40:20
Speaker 1: and basically making elected Republicans way out of touch with
40:24
Speaker 1: the average person. Right, that's happening. You've got Trump so
40:29
Speaker 1: consumed with his own ego that he has stopped worrying
40:33
Speaker 1: about being a populist for the people that he said
40:37
Speaker 1: we're the forgotten men and women of America. He apparently
40:40
Speaker 1: has forgotten them when he thinks about life at the
40:42
Speaker 1: Kennedy Center. All of this is accumulating, and it may
40:45
Speaker 1: look slow and it's a drip here and a drip there,
40:50
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, it's going to be
40:52
Speaker 1: an avalanche. All right, let me sneak in a break
40:55
Speaker 1: when we come back. My conversation with my good friend
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Speaker 1: for thirty percent off. Well, joining me now for a
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Speaker 1: little end of the year, Where the hell is Congress headed?
42:26
Speaker 1: Next is a good conversation with my friendly and Caldwell.
42:30
Speaker 1: She's the chief Washington correspondent for Puck, which is more
42:36
Speaker 1: and more becoming a must read these days. Puck one
42:40
Speaker 1: of my Yeah, it's one of my look in this
42:43
Speaker 1: day and age of independent you know where we have
42:45
Speaker 1: a lot of people questioning corporate owned media, shareholder controlled media,
42:49
Speaker 1: all of that nonsense. Independent owned news operations, I think
42:53
Speaker 1: are should be having a moment, and let's just say
42:58
Speaker 1: Puck's having a moment. Join it.
43:01
Speaker 2: I love it. It's great. Actually, it's a good place
43:04
Speaker 2: to work. I get to cover what I want to cover. No, yeah,
43:11
Speaker 2: it's it's great. It's I don't really have You've been.
43:15
Speaker 1: At the Washington Post at NBC. Right. It doesn't get
43:17
Speaker 1: more mainstream media than that. You and I got to
43:20
Speaker 1: know each other at NBC.
43:22
Speaker 2: You hired me at NBC.
43:24
Speaker 1: I hired Well. I wasn't going to be so presumptuous,
43:27
Speaker 1: but I'd like to think I had good judgment here.
43:32
Speaker 1: What how do you answer the question of, Hey, what's
43:35
Speaker 1: the difference between LeAnn called Well the reporter for PUCK
43:39
Speaker 1: and Leanne called Well the reporter for NBC and the
43:41
Speaker 1: Washington Post. How do you answer that question?
43:43
Speaker 2: Oh, my gosh, that's said. No one's actually asked me
43:47
Speaker 2: that question in that way. I would say, there is
43:52
Speaker 2: not actually a lot of difference in my and how
43:58
Speaker 2: I approach my job. But specifically, I still covering the Hill,
44:05
Speaker 2: still covering politics. I think what is different is that
44:11
Speaker 2: I have changed my focus completely away from the incremental,
44:16
Speaker 2: and I now think more deeply about the impacts of
44:22
Speaker 2: what's happening on the Hill. I think about the big
44:26
Speaker 2: picture a lot more, and I really get to lean
44:31
Speaker 2: into kind of the conversations that are happening behind the
44:36
Speaker 2: scenes instead of what everyone is just saying publicly. You know,
44:42
Speaker 2: So I think that rather than my approach, it's more
44:46
Speaker 2: kind of the angle that's different.
44:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I sort of answer it very similarly. I'll say,
44:52
Speaker 1: you know, look it, I don't have to worry about
44:55
Speaker 1: the busy work of Washington reporting. And what do we
44:57
Speaker 1: mean by the busy work of art? Look what you
44:59
Speaker 1: just describe as incrementalism, like what time is this briefing
45:02
Speaker 1: going to be? Is this going to happen the next
45:06
Speaker 1: tomorrow or the next day? All important information that major
45:09
Speaker 1: news organizations it might be planning planning specials around it,
45:14
Speaker 1: or planning coverage or trying to These are all important
45:17
Speaker 1: things that you know, people didn't really understand that part
45:20
Speaker 1: of our job is when I was chief White House correspondent,
45:23
Speaker 1: I felt it a lot more there than I did
45:25
Speaker 1: obviously meet the press. But which was and you certainly understood,
45:29
Speaker 1: which was the amount of logistics and operational information we
45:33
Speaker 1: had to spend our time gathering in order to help
45:36
Speaker 1: and again, all necessary for the larger organization and I'm
45:40
Speaker 1: not you know, oh the president, you know, take to
45:43
Speaker 1: the presidential address. Well, suddenly I would have been working
45:47
Speaker 1: with our executives. What are they looking for? What time?
45:51
Speaker 1: How much are they asking for? And it's like suddenly
45:53
Speaker 1: half my day is being chewed up by this logistical thing.
45:56
Speaker 1: It's like it's like at home spending half your day
45:58
Speaker 1: on hold with the cable company while you're trying to
46:00
Speaker 1: figure out how you're getting you know, how they're going
46:02
Speaker 1: to come over to fix something, to not have to
46:07
Speaker 1: you know that was said, there are times that would
46:10
Speaker 1: be thirty percent of your job, right.
46:12
Speaker 2: Absolutely, yes, yeah, yes, because you have to as you
46:20
Speaker 2: well know, there's this production element that you have to
46:23
Speaker 2: be that the network needs and so you know, and
46:28
Speaker 2: my job as a reporter, of.
46:30
Speaker 1: Course, you and I are questioning do they need it?
46:32
Speaker 1: Like you know, the amount? I mean, I think that's
46:35
Speaker 1: the thing. Like I mean, I didn't mean to cut
46:37
Speaker 1: you off there, but it's like, yes, if you think
46:41
Speaker 1: through if you think about the network through the prism,
46:45
Speaker 1: the older prism, then yeah, it makes sense when you
46:47
Speaker 1: think about how consumers get information, it made no sense.
46:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, that's that's an absolutely great point.
46:54
Speaker 2: And also it's like, you know, from a reporter standpoint,
47:00
Speaker 2: it was a lot of making sure you had what
47:04
Speaker 2: someone else had, and so there was very little ability
47:08
Speaker 2: to do original thought because it was always making sure
47:13
Speaker 2: that everyone, every network or every outlet was in the
47:17
Speaker 2: same place jaistically with the content.
47:23
Speaker 1: And oh, well that's an important it's an important point.
47:25
Speaker 1: Let me put a put a signpost on that wall.
47:28
Speaker 1: Street Journal is reporting that there's going to be a
47:31
Speaker 1: vote tomorrow on the ACA subsidies. Hey, Leanne, can you
47:36
Speaker 1: go check that out? Is it tomorrow? Right? Like in
47:39
Speaker 1: your life?
47:40
Speaker 2: Can you confirm that?
47:41
Speaker 1: Yes? And it's like yeah, and maybe in the maybe
47:46
Speaker 1: confirming that information might get you another piece of information
47:50
Speaker 1: that can't help your reporting. Don't get me wrong, Like
47:52
Speaker 1: doing that was a totally useless exercise, you know, because
47:56
Speaker 1: you were then suddenly all right, well maybe you know
47:59
Speaker 1: what else can you tell me? And then suddenly you're like, oh, okay,
48:02
Speaker 1: now I learned a little bit something else. But if
48:06
Speaker 1: people wonder why the mainstream media sounds like group think,
48:09
Speaker 1: well it's because all of our bosses are constantly asking
48:12
Speaker 1: us could we're constantly asking us to confirm everybody else's stories,
48:16
Speaker 1: and that would be kind of a circle jerk totally.
48:19
Speaker 2: That's exactly what I tell people, you know, when you
48:25
Speaker 2: they ask a different version of the question you asked me.
48:28
Speaker 2: No one at PUCK has ever said, can you confirm this? Like,
48:33
Speaker 2: not once it's been It's amazing. I have spent zero
48:37
Speaker 2: time confirming other people's reporting.
48:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about Congress this year. There are days
48:47
Speaker 1: you think, oh my god, the sky is falling, and
48:49
Speaker 1: there are days you're like, yeah, this is just another
48:51
Speaker 1: day in the life at Congress, and you know this
48:54
Speaker 1: is is this your fifth year covering Capitol Hill?
48:57
Speaker 2: No, oh my god, chak longer than that.
49:00
Speaker 1: Everything, the time space time continuum is just done for me.
49:03
Speaker 2: With Covidney right the day after Trump got elected first term.
49:08
Speaker 2: So what's that?
49:10
Speaker 1: So it's almost nine years, So you're nine years years
49:13
Speaker 1: you've been covering the Hill nine years. I could sit
49:16
Speaker 1: here and say you've covered a more dysfunctional version of
49:18
Speaker 1: Congress than when I started covering Capitol Hill in nineteen
49:23
Speaker 1: ninety three and ninety four going through there. And yet
49:28
Speaker 1: there were veterans back then who'd say, oh, you have
49:31
Speaker 1: no idea, you're covering a very This Gingrich era so dysfunctional.
49:35
Speaker 1: Da da da da da. Right, like every there's always
49:39
Speaker 1: I'm mindful of the following fact everybody thinks they're time
49:42
Speaker 1: covering Congress specifically, is that there's never been a time
49:46
Speaker 1: like this, and there's truth to that, right that we
49:50
Speaker 1: are sort of increasingly like out each Congress outdues the
49:55
Speaker 1: previous one in its dysfunctionality. So you've done it nine years,
49:59
Speaker 1: So you walk me through your nine years of dysfunctionality.
50:02
Speaker 2: Well, let me just say I'm going to expand that
50:05
Speaker 2: a little bit. A lot of people do blame the
50:07
Speaker 2: Gingrich years for like going off the cliff. So I
50:11
Speaker 2: guess you were there at the beginning of what people
50:14
Speaker 2: now maybe it's revisal, but.
50:15
Speaker 1: You know what the Gingrit's apologists would say, it started
50:18
Speaker 1: with Jim Wright, and it started with the Democrats in
50:21
Speaker 1: eighty six when they insisted on seating that's called it's
50:26
Speaker 1: this fight called the Bloody Eighth Indiana's eighth congressional district.
50:31
Speaker 1: A recount h indicated that the Republican one. The Democrats
50:37
Speaker 1: didn't accept the recount, and they literally seeded the Democrat
50:40
Speaker 1: even though the recount had so the point is is
50:43
Speaker 1: that it's just like the judiciary wars. It's Harry Reid's fault,
50:46
Speaker 1: it's bitch McConnell's fault. Guess what, guys, you all, you
50:49
Speaker 1: all broke it and you all have to pay the
50:52
Speaker 1: pottery barn bill.
50:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. So the past nine years during Trump, I guess,
50:57
Speaker 2: you know, Trump and then Biden and then again now
51:01
Speaker 2: it's just you know, first four years of Trump, the
51:06
Speaker 2: story was what everyone how every Republican secretly hates Trump?
51:13
Speaker 2: Like the story would always be, can you react to
51:18
Speaker 2: whatever Trump tweeted? It was Twitter back then, or whatever
51:21
Speaker 2: he said, and people would start to say, oh, I
51:26
Speaker 2: didn't see it, you know, try to dodge, but it
51:29
Speaker 2: was there was so little respect for the man, and
51:35
Speaker 2: that was always the story. Now and this Trump era,
51:40
Speaker 2: I almost feel like what people say about Trump behind
51:44
Speaker 2: the scenes doesn't even matter because they are doing whatever
51:50
Speaker 2: he wants publicly, handing away, you know, so much of
51:55
Speaker 2: their congressional authority to Trump. Even if they don't like
51:59
Speaker 2: it and they complain about it, they're doing it and
52:03
Speaker 2: that's what matters, you know. The first Trump term, of course,
52:10
Speaker 2: we went through an impeachment. All the investigations January sixth,
52:19
Speaker 2: which I was there for. Uh, and that you know,
52:23
Speaker 2: all of that has changed Congress so much, the lack
52:29
Speaker 2: of trust between the parties. People just really don't like
52:34
Speaker 2: each other, you know.
52:36
Speaker 1: Of course, And it's no longer theater. It used to
52:38
Speaker 1: be theater. Yeah, behind the scenes. Boy, let me tell you,
52:42
Speaker 1: Tom Cole he gets along with everybody, and he may
52:45
Speaker 1: still get along with everybody right by the way, for
52:47
Speaker 1: what he's probably right. Everybody loves Tom Cole. You know,
52:52
Speaker 1: he's too he doesn't know how to be mean, which
52:55
Speaker 1: you know, but for the most part you would hear
53:00
Speaker 1: it seemed more theater than not. And now it seems real,
53:04
Speaker 1: like this stuff's personal.
53:05
Speaker 2: It feels yeah, it's it's very personal. And it's not
53:09
Speaker 2: just at a member level too. The staffs don't really
53:12
Speaker 2: like each other. And that's like another layer where the staffs,
53:17
Speaker 2: you know, everyone kind of got the joke. And now,
53:23
Speaker 2: for the most part, there are very few people who
53:28
Speaker 2: hang Republicans who hang out with Democrats and vice versa. Yes,
53:31
Speaker 2: there are some.
53:31
Speaker 1: Is that just is that a generational phenomenon. I've gotten
53:34
Speaker 1: a sense that the younger congressional staffers are a bit
53:37
Speaker 1: more are well, I mean they were, they were they'd
53:43
Speaker 1: learned politics in the social media era, which is a
53:46
Speaker 1: very which is to me, a very awful way to
53:51
Speaker 1: have learned politics. But they they sort of believe that
53:54
Speaker 1: their counterparts are what the social media caricature has created
53:59
Speaker 1: of that is.
53:59
Speaker 2: That, Yeah, I think that. I think that there is
54:02
Speaker 2: a lot of generational component to that. The people who
54:05
Speaker 2: have been there for a very long time, you.
54:08
Speaker 1: Know, still they know how to still like work with
54:11
Speaker 1: the other side, or at least at least they know
54:13
Speaker 1: somebody they can work with on the other side.
54:15
Speaker 2: Ye sure, yeah, yeah, totally. And there's like the appropriators,
54:19
Speaker 2: you know, they have to work with each other, et cetera.
54:21
Speaker 2: But it's just, you know, January sixth did a lot
54:24
Speaker 2: a lot of damage and it took years for it
54:28
Speaker 2: to kind of get back to a base level. And
54:33
Speaker 2: then now it's just I think that the Congress story is,
54:39
Speaker 2: you know, how diminished of an institution will Congress be
54:43
Speaker 2: by the end of Trump's first term? You know, I
54:48
Speaker 2: always question what if Mike Johnson's legacy is, if that's
54:51
Speaker 2: what it's going to be, if he's just going to
54:56
Speaker 2: kind of hand over the keys to the capit all
55:00
Speaker 2: to the President.
55:02
Speaker 1: Well, it was interesting. We were you know, we have
55:04
Speaker 1: gone through these fits and starts of strong speakers and
55:06
Speaker 1: week speakers. Was a strong speaker, Tom Foley was a
55:10
Speaker 1: week Jim Wright. Tom Jim Wright wanted to be a
55:13
Speaker 1: strong speaker. It sort of got him out, It sort
55:15
Speaker 1: of cost him the speakership. Fully was a week speaker.
55:20
Speaker 1: Gingrich was a strong speaker. Then we had hasted extraordinarily
55:24
Speaker 1: weak speaker. Very much more in the lines of the
55:26
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson, right, Uh, Pelosi brought strength again to the speakership,
55:31
Speaker 1: and then it sort of was trying to encourage Bayner
55:34
Speaker 1: wanted to be a strong speaker. He got thrown out
55:36
Speaker 1: for being one. Right, Ryan wanted to try to you know,
55:40
Speaker 1: he was trying to it sort of re establish the speakership.
55:45
Speaker 1: It all, you know, it sort of arguably why he left.
55:48
Speaker 1: Slash cost him his role. So I agree with you
55:52
Speaker 1: on Johnson, but I don't know whether I mean, I
55:56
Speaker 1: think he's going to go down as probably an even
55:59
Speaker 1: weaker seaker than Dennis Haster. I think it's just saying something.
56:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I mean, especially how this Congress,
56:06
Speaker 2: this session of this Congress ended up.
56:11
Speaker 1: We're not and we're not done right, Like, I mean
56:13
Speaker 1: this Congress, you know, this.
56:15
Speaker 2: Year of this seat Congress. Yeah, right, and the last
56:18
Speaker 2: week was tumultuous.
56:20
Speaker 1: Well, and it's been tumultuous arguably for the last two months. Right.
56:25
Speaker 1: There was that day where you had a party on
56:29
Speaker 1: party crime, Right, you had the Democrats trying to censure
56:32
Speaker 1: another Democrat. Republicans were met. I mean, it seemed I
56:36
Speaker 1: was talking with Mike Turner the day after it happened,
56:40
Speaker 1: and he goes, he said, the only thing missing were
56:43
Speaker 1: the canes, you know, where they were just going to
56:45
Speaker 1: start like actually physically assaulting each other. But that, I mean,
56:50
Speaker 1: the damage Johnson did to the Institution by keeping them
56:53
Speaker 1: away during the government shutdown, I mean, that turned out
56:56
Speaker 1: to be just a massive miscalculation by his part, wasn't it. Yeah.
57:00
Speaker 2: I literally wrote the Institution irrelevant and it I was
57:07
Speaker 2: shocked at the number of Republicans who were okay with it.
57:12
Speaker 2: But it proved it. Yeah, it proved to be a
57:15
Speaker 2: massive mistake. They are going to come out as being
57:20
Speaker 2: extremely unproductive. They could have been working on other things.
57:25
Speaker 2: They're way behind, and it just broke a lot of
57:31
Speaker 2: trust within the party because one thing, a couple of
57:35
Speaker 2: Republicans actually during that process had said to me that
57:39
Speaker 2: one of the things that happens, especially like during a
57:44
Speaker 2: government shutdown, and you know, the leaders aren't talking to
57:47
Speaker 2: each other and everything stalemated. But then it's like, you know,
57:51
Speaker 2: all the rank and files they're bored, and so they
57:53
Speaker 2: start talking to each other and they're like, we're over this.
57:56
Speaker 2: Let's not that they're bipartisan plan ever become reality, but
58:01
Speaker 2: they're talking starts to put pressure on leaders, and he
58:05
Speaker 2: completely eliminated that aspect of what legislators want to feel
58:13
Speaker 2: is like they are having some sort of input or
58:16
Speaker 2: say or impact, and he negated that entire underspoken element
58:24
Speaker 2: of what the shutdown and what just kind of like
58:28
Speaker 2: the day to day job is.
58:30
Speaker 1: So, why do I think we are underplaying the possibility
58:34
Speaker 1: of another shutdown in January? Why do we assume there
58:40
Speaker 1: won't be one? It feels like to me all the
58:42
Speaker 1: ingredients are there for another shutdown in January.
58:44
Speaker 2: I think that based on my discussions with Democrats so far,
58:49
Speaker 2: very preliminary, but they feel like they came out so
58:54
Speaker 2: much on top of the last shutdown. They completely changed
58:59
Speaker 2: the narrative to healthcare obviously an issue that they are
59:04
Speaker 2: very comfortable with, and Republicans, as we see, cannot just
59:08
Speaker 2: a mess yeah, not deal with and so the risk
59:14
Speaker 2: of another shutdown the base might get mad, but the
59:18
Speaker 2: risk of another shutdown could absolutely eliminate all of this
59:22
Speaker 2: goodwill with voters that they have built up by fighting
59:27
Speaker 2: quote fighting for health care.
59:34
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Speaker 1: unless they win. Let me ask it this way, though,
1:00:39
Speaker 1: do they everything that they've gained by sounding the alarm
1:00:43
Speaker 1: about healthcare at the time? Right the whole though? You know,
1:00:47
Speaker 1: in theory, why did they Why did they instigate the
1:00:50
Speaker 1: shutdown to sound the alarm on healthcare subsidies? So if
1:00:55
Speaker 1: we still don't have if we have an alarming problem
1:00:59
Speaker 1: on healthcare skyrocketing, which they're going to be, and already
1:01:03
Speaker 1: being quoted on huge prices for people, how do you
1:01:08
Speaker 1: not do whatever it takes in January when there's an
1:01:15
Speaker 1: opportunity to essentially corner the Republican majority to get them.
1:01:19
Speaker 1: You know, the point is, do you just want the
1:01:21
Speaker 1: issue or do you want to put it, you know,
1:01:23
Speaker 1: force them to to deal with this problem? Now?
1:01:27
Speaker 2: I mean I think Democrats absolutely want the issue. It's
1:01:30
Speaker 2: good politics for them. You know, they would never say
1:01:33
Speaker 2: that or admit it, but they do know that the
1:01:36
Speaker 2: issue helps them. But there is actually some I think
1:01:44
Speaker 2: overly optimistic belief that there are some chances for some
1:01:48
Speaker 2: bipartisan agreement in January.
1:01:52
Speaker 1: I think something's coming. I do, well, this is a
1:01:55
Speaker 1: I think that is coming. But b I think you
1:01:56
Speaker 1: have to use the threat of a shutdown to.
1:01:58
Speaker 2: Get it done. Yeah, and I think that they, you know,
1:02:01
Speaker 2: maybe they go there. Like I said, it's it's early.
1:02:07
Speaker 2: They definitely do not want people to start, any of
1:02:11
Speaker 2: their members to start threatening a shutdown right now, because
1:02:13
Speaker 2: then they look like arsonists and and so you know,
1:02:19
Speaker 2: obviously it's very much it's very much a possibility. I personally,
1:02:24
Speaker 2: I don't think that they're going to do it. I
1:02:26
Speaker 2: think that they're too risk averse to do it.
1:02:31
Speaker 1: But I expected Trump to flip on this, and he hasn't.
1:02:34
Speaker 1: He's digging in and he dug in again last night,
1:02:38
Speaker 1: and it's like I, I, you know, there's a part
1:02:41
Speaker 1: of me that you know it sits there and says, well, yeah,
1:02:45
Speaker 1: I'd love to you. I would beat up the insurance
1:02:48
Speaker 1: companies too, like why do we want to give more money?
1:02:51
Speaker 1: But then my response, my follow up is what's the
1:02:54
Speaker 1: alternative system to insurance companies, mister president, right, Like, this
1:02:58
Speaker 1: is the problem the Republicans have. Well, we don't want
1:03:00
Speaker 1: to subsidize insurance companies. How else are we giving people healthcare?
1:03:05
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, you're going to give the money to the
1:03:07
Speaker 2: people instead. But you still have to pay the insurance company.
1:03:10
Speaker 1: Right, like the people, right, not of it. Really, it
1:03:14
Speaker 1: feels like a great it feels good to say it.
1:03:17
Speaker 1: We're not going to give it directly to the insurance companies.
1:03:20
Speaker 1: We're going to give it to you to give directly
1:03:23
Speaker 1: to the insurance companies. I know.
1:03:27
Speaker 2: I was actually surprised too, because there's the populist strain
1:03:30
Speaker 2: in the Republican Party that Trump purportedly believes in which
1:03:33
Speaker 2: we all know he doesn't, that thinks that these Obamacare
1:03:40
Speaker 2: subsidies need to be extended at least for now, until
1:03:43
Speaker 2: there's another plan or whatever. You know. Josh Holly is
1:03:47
Speaker 2: one of those people who's really been pushing it, and
1:03:51
Speaker 2: I thought that he was going to give into but
1:03:55
Speaker 2: he did not, And I you know, and I'm.
1:04:00
Speaker 1: Just you know, it's his own polster telling everybody that
1:04:03
Speaker 1: this is a disaster in the making. Yeah, it's Tony
1:04:06
Speaker 1: Fabrizio that has been sounding this alarm, which is why
1:04:09
Speaker 1: I expected him to flip.
1:04:10
Speaker 2: Sorry, yeah, no, I was gonna say, but I think
1:04:13
Speaker 2: that I'm only speculating here. But you know, I think
1:04:17
Speaker 2: that a lot of it has to do with the
1:04:19
Speaker 2: fact that it is Obama Care, that there is a
1:04:25
Speaker 2: lot of disdain for anything Biden. I mean, his whole
1:04:28
Speaker 2: presidency so far has been undoing what Biden did, and
1:04:32
Speaker 2: he obviously hates Barack Obama and so not wanting to
1:04:35
Speaker 2: prop up something that his predecessor did, and like creating
1:04:38
Speaker 2: this healthcare system, and that that is a big that's
1:04:41
Speaker 2: a big issue on the Hill too. A lot of
1:04:45
Speaker 2: a reason I've been told by multiple Republicans that they
1:04:50
Speaker 2: were so resistant for extending these subsidies is because fifteen
1:04:56
Speaker 2: years ago they vowed to never do anything to support
1:05:01
Speaker 2: the Affordable Care Act, and that that stance from you know,
1:05:06
Speaker 2: almost two decades ago is staying with them now. So
1:05:10
Speaker 2: you could say, regardless of what the Affordable Care Act
1:05:13
Speaker 2: issue is, so there's some Republicans who will not do anything.
1:05:17
Speaker 1: So basically, while Donald Trump thinks everybody's got Trump arrangement syndrome,
1:05:23
Speaker 1: what you're saying is that there are a lot of
1:05:24
Speaker 1: Republicans who still have Obama derangement syndrome.
1:05:27
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, yeah, absolutely.
1:05:30
Speaker 1: That ultimately is the is the virus that has not
1:05:33
Speaker 1: been cured.
1:05:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, and actually Josh Holly will say
1:05:37
Speaker 2: that on the record too. He'll say, look in these
1:05:40
Speaker 2: private meetings, closed door meetings with Senate Republicans, there are
1:05:44
Speaker 2: just people who are so dug in on anything anti
1:05:50
Speaker 2: Obamacare that they just won't even consider it.
1:05:54
Speaker 1: It really is such an intellect it's such an intellectual, intellectual,
1:05:58
Speaker 1: dishonest argument, right, because what Obamacare turned out to be
1:06:02
Speaker 1: was was essentially not government health care, but government support
1:06:07
Speaker 1: supporting a market based system that was essentially run by
1:06:11
Speaker 1: the private sector. Because what Democrats wanted to do they
1:06:15
Speaker 1: couldn't because the insurance companies made it clear that they
1:06:18
Speaker 1: were going to destroy any you know, they just you
1:06:21
Speaker 1: know what, Clinton tried to take the insurance companies out
1:06:25
Speaker 1: of this. Well, guess what, right? It just they lost
1:06:28
Speaker 1: that argument. And the irony is that this was a
1:06:33
Speaker 1: this was a Heritage Foundation idea that Mitt Romney put
1:06:37
Speaker 1: in the Massachusetts that Bama Obama ends up implementing. I mean,
1:06:41
Speaker 1: the anger that these Republicans have had an idea that
1:06:44
Speaker 1: was originally incubated at the Heritage Foundation when it was
1:06:48
Speaker 1: an actual conservative think tank, and not what it's turned
1:06:50
Speaker 1: into in the last year or two is is still
1:06:54
Speaker 1: like this this ironic pill that none of them seemed
1:06:57
Speaker 1: to want to want to admit to take and admit.
1:07:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, because remember Obamacare the compromise is what Democrats wanted
1:07:07
Speaker 2: was a single payer plan and this is the best
1:07:10
Speaker 2: that they could get. They literally, like you said, and you.
1:07:12
Speaker 1: Know what Trump wants. What Trump has been advocating is
1:07:16
Speaker 1: a form of a single payer plan. Yeah, yeah, he
1:07:19
Speaker 1: actually had. Anytime he talks about it, it's the closest
1:07:22
Speaker 1: you know, he comes to you know, it is it is.
1:07:27
Speaker 1: It is amazing to me how often that they messed
1:07:30
Speaker 1: this up, right, Like you know, look, Democrats seem to
1:07:35
Speaker 1: be allergic to border security, right, there is just some
1:07:37
Speaker 1: right you see it? You know, sometimes you're like, how
1:07:40
Speaker 1: is it that you guys don't see that the public
1:07:43
Speaker 1: is pro immigration, legal immigration, but wants some border security,
1:07:46
Speaker 1: Like it's okay to lead with that. It's the same
1:07:49
Speaker 1: thing with Republicans and there it's there's something right, like
1:07:54
Speaker 1: both parties have this, and to me, these are the
1:07:56
Speaker 1: two issues that do the right where they don't think straight.
1:07:59
Speaker 1: They never think like the average person. They're so dug
1:08:02
Speaker 1: in on a specific piece of their you know, their
1:08:07
Speaker 1: rationale for obstructing on that issue that they can't acknowledge
1:08:11
Speaker 1: another part of this. You know.
1:08:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a great This is an issue
1:08:16
Speaker 2: that is obviously confounded Republicans for decades. I mean, this
1:08:20
Speaker 2: is a hard issue. It took Democrats really. I mean,
1:08:24
Speaker 2: you know, Hillary kink In, like you said, had her
1:08:26
Speaker 2: plan that didn't go anywhere.
1:08:29
Speaker 1: If you if you're going to let the private sector
1:08:31
Speaker 1: deal with healthcare, there, you know the system is going
1:08:34
Speaker 1: to always look this gobbledly good. You know, we're allergic
1:08:38
Speaker 1: to government run stuff here, right, unless it's so security,
1:08:41
Speaker 1: unless it's better, you know, but it is, you know,
1:08:45
Speaker 1: they're all I am surprised that Trump didn't just expand
1:08:50
Speaker 1: Medicare and call it trump Care.
1:08:53
Speaker 2: I know.
1:08:53
Speaker 1: I mean, he could have brought it down to fifty plus,
1:08:57
Speaker 1: said no to the subsidies, but brought that down to
1:08:59
Speaker 1: fifty plus, letting people buy into Medicare at fifty years old,
1:09:04
Speaker 1: rather than the you know, you'd had Democrats supporting that idea.
1:09:08
Speaker 1: I mean like there was a way for them to
1:09:09
Speaker 1: put their own Yeah, there's a way to put their
1:09:12
Speaker 1: own signature on this in a way that could you know,
1:09:15
Speaker 1: that would appease certain parts of the left absolutely, but
1:09:19
Speaker 1: would also make up for a more sensible system that
1:09:22
Speaker 1: actually business wouldn't hate.
1:09:25
Speaker 2: Well. And also that's why during the government shut down,
1:09:29
Speaker 2: Democrats I thought it was kind of lame at first
1:09:31
Speaker 2: or dumb at first that they were so focused on
1:09:35
Speaker 2: what Trump was saying and what Trump was going to do.
1:09:39
Speaker 2: But I came to realize towards the end that Republicans
1:09:44
Speaker 2: couldn't do anything without Trump, and so they put all
1:09:50
Speaker 2: of their focus on, well, what, you know, what is
1:09:53
Speaker 2: Trump going to do? And when Trump, you know, didn't
1:09:57
Speaker 2: come out in support of you know, the bipart is
1:10:00
Speaker 2: and efforts, then they knew it was just it was
1:10:03
Speaker 2: just it was just done. But you know, I think
1:10:06
Speaker 2: that this also gets into which I wrote about for Sunday,
1:10:13
Speaker 2: is how little Trump thinks about Congress in the sense
1:10:19
Speaker 2: of he doesn't think any more legislation needs to come
1:10:22
Speaker 2: through the Hill. He said in October that he's done
1:10:28
Speaker 2: with legislating. He said it again in December. He's done.
1:10:31
Speaker 2: They don't need another bill. And you know, Trump just
1:10:36
Speaker 2: thinks that he can do everything that matters through executive order.
1:10:40
Speaker 2: And the reality is that Republicans cannot get anything through
1:10:44
Speaker 2: Congress without Trump, and so they're in this position where
1:10:49
Speaker 2: they need the president, but the President is done with them.
1:10:52
Speaker 2: He got his tax extenders, he got his money for
1:10:57
Speaker 2: immigration enforcement, and he he was able to reverse like
1:11:01
Speaker 2: all the clean clean energy stuff through the one big,
1:11:04
Speaker 2: beautiful bill. And so there's nothing else that he cares
1:11:07
Speaker 2: about on the Hill.
1:11:08
Speaker 1: So there's not going to be another reconciliation, huh.
1:11:11
Speaker 2: I mean members of congres like Speaker Johnson says that
1:11:16
Speaker 2: there he's going to try. He wants one, other members
1:11:21
Speaker 2: of Congress, other Republicans want it, but if Trump's not involved,
1:11:26
Speaker 2: they can't get it. That's why healthcare fell apart is
1:11:29
Speaker 2: because Trump completely absent.
1:11:31
Speaker 1: Well, it's because you know I've been calling Mike Johnson
1:11:35
Speaker 1: a Spino speaker in name only.
1:11:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yes, you know, I keep.
1:11:41
Speaker 1: I keep hoping this will you know, the way Scotus
1:11:44
Speaker 1: and Potus takes off Rhino and Dino Spino right speaker, Yeah,
1:11:48
Speaker 1: I keep waiting for that to to get some traction,
1:11:51
Speaker 1: but it is, it's up to Trump. And so if
1:11:55
Speaker 1: Trump's got, i mean, the only thing he wants from Congress,
1:11:58
Speaker 1: I'm guessing is him is a congressionable order changing the
1:12:01
Speaker 1: name of the Kennedy Senator to the Trump Kennedy Center.
1:12:03
Speaker 1: Right like that that that's about all he would care
1:12:05
Speaker 1: about getting out of Congress.
1:12:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean look at the Look at the
1:12:09
Speaker 2: military pay that he announced.
1:12:12
Speaker 1: That's money that was already appropriated to the Defense Department.
1:12:15
Speaker 1: And it's discretionary. It's essentially discretionary housing allowance, right.
1:12:19
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, And he is claiming that it's tariff revenue money.
1:12:24
Speaker 2: He's not even admitting that Congress passed this because like
1:12:29
Speaker 2: he just not.
1:12:29
Speaker 1: I mean, he's not the first president to try to
1:12:31
Speaker 1: take something that was already done and put a new
1:12:33
Speaker 1: label on it and stamp it. Hey, look at I've done, right, Like,
1:12:36
Speaker 1: you know, oh, we're giving the military extra money. Well
1:12:38
Speaker 1: let's call it my pay raise, you know, or.
1:12:40
Speaker 2: My bonus or right totally. But like, why don't you
1:12:43
Speaker 2: just say, look at what we passed or whatever, rather
1:12:47
Speaker 2: than say it's from tariff revenue, which actually is a
1:12:51
Speaker 2: I don't know why he would say it anyways, because
1:12:52
Speaker 2: then he'd have to take them well, repay the tariff
1:12:55
Speaker 2: money if the Supreme Court rules.
1:12:57
Speaker 1: So this gets to a question about the next six months,
1:13:00
Speaker 1: because it's interesting. You don't think there's really much legislating
1:13:03
Speaker 1: that's going to happen other than what they have to
1:13:05
Speaker 1: the have to stuff that we're not going to see
1:13:07
Speaker 1: an A want twos. Okay, Well, one of the half
1:13:10
Speaker 1: tows that might come is if the Supreme Court rules
1:13:13
Speaker 1: the way most of us expect, the Supreme Court rule
1:13:16
Speaker 1: on the president's tariff authority or lack thereof, and he
1:13:22
Speaker 1: will need you know, in theory, he has appliant appliant House,
1:13:27
Speaker 1: at least a House Republican conference that I think in
1:13:30
Speaker 1: probably he can get anything out of them. Senate's going
1:13:33
Speaker 1: to be a harder left on tariffs. I mean, I
1:13:35
Speaker 1: think we all know that. Does that not change his
1:13:40
Speaker 1: tune about the necessity of and he would want reconciliation
1:13:44
Speaker 1: on TERRF authority because you know, he needs to afford
1:13:48
Speaker 1: to lose Republican votes on this.
1:13:53
Speaker 2: I mean, yes, So I had heard from you know, outside,
1:13:58
Speaker 2: from lobbyists who say that they are already considering like
1:14:02
Speaker 2: how to go to Congress for how to pass the tariffs.
1:14:07
Speaker 2: I you know, I don't even know if House Republicans
1:14:11
Speaker 2: will do it though.
1:14:11
Speaker 1: Check.
1:14:12
Speaker 2: I think that as polling is continuing to as polling
1:14:18
Speaker 2: is suggesting that people are starting to tie tariffs with
1:14:22
Speaker 2: high costs, these Republicans who are facing voters in you know,
1:14:28
Speaker 2: a few months from whenever this tariff decision comes out,
1:14:32
Speaker 2: I just don't see them giving Trump like blanket authority
1:14:36
Speaker 2: to continue this tariff regime. Definitely in the Senate and
1:14:42
Speaker 2: even in the House, we'll see. But I just I
1:14:46
Speaker 2: really think that, you know, outside circumstances are going to
1:14:50
Speaker 2: dictate this, the political circumstances and the economic circumstances. But
1:14:54
Speaker 2: if things are how they are now, I'm not sure
1:14:58
Speaker 2: if even they'd be on board.
1:15:00
Speaker 1: Well, I do expect the White House to find other
1:15:02
Speaker 1: I mean, even the President has sort of hinted, he goes, well,
1:15:05
Speaker 1: if they take it away, I've got other ways to
1:15:07
Speaker 1: do this. But it will be harder, and it will
1:15:10
Speaker 1: be more complicated, and it will get in the way
1:15:12
Speaker 1: of his so called deal making that he's done, that's
1:15:16
Speaker 1: for sure. So if if if there really isn't going
1:15:20
Speaker 1: to be much legislating. Then how many more retirements are
1:15:24
Speaker 1: you know? I mean to me, that's the that's going
1:15:26
Speaker 1: to be the the story of the next three weeks, right,
1:15:31
Speaker 1: is how many members decide over the holidays. I'm out,
1:15:34
Speaker 1: I'm done.
1:15:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know. So I wrote and reported a couple
1:15:41
Speaker 2: of weeks ago that people were Republicans were really bracing
1:15:46
Speaker 2: for a lot of retirements.
1:15:48
Speaker 1: What is a lot another dozen?
1:15:50
Speaker 2: Well, I was told at least twenty.
1:15:54
Speaker 1: Another twenty, we already are at a fairly Look, this
1:15:59
Speaker 1: is where in the higher end of the retirements. It's
1:16:02
Speaker 1: nowhere near the all time record, but we're at the
1:16:04
Speaker 1: higher end. Another twenty would put us in that in
1:16:07
Speaker 1: an all time situation.
1:16:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll see if that plays out. I was
1:16:14
Speaker 2: told that obviously a lot of these people are still
1:16:16
Speaker 2: making their decisions but serving, you know, And the Republicans
1:16:22
Speaker 2: that I some of the Republicans I talked to, they
1:16:24
Speaker 2: were like, look, don't don't don't make this a a
1:16:32
Speaker 2: that most of these people are from safe seats really
1:16:34
Speaker 2: or maybe that second or third tier competitive seat. But
1:16:39
Speaker 2: it is an indictment on what it's like to serve
1:16:42
Speaker 2: in Congress right now, are you going to put up
1:16:45
Speaker 2: if you have any sort of familial strife or member
1:16:49
Speaker 2: is sick, or there's you know, things going on in
1:16:51
Speaker 2: your family that's not perfect, in your life that's not perfect.
1:16:55
Speaker 2: Why would you do this? Like in a when the
1:16:58
Speaker 2: job is fun, when you're s sucessful, when you're passing legislation,
1:17:02
Speaker 2: you can overcome that stuff. But then you're you start
1:17:06
Speaker 2: to weigh things differently, and you know, I'm told that
1:17:09
Speaker 2: like the Texas Republicans are, and of course the California
1:17:13
Speaker 2: Republicans are just pissed. They are mad about the redistricting effort.
1:17:18
Speaker 1: We're mad at the White House and Johnson right there.
1:17:21
Speaker 1: They're somehow mad that Johnson can't tell the president no,
1:17:25
Speaker 1: that's I guess what they're mad at him at right.
1:17:27
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, they are not standing up for them, especially
1:17:30
Speaker 2: on the redistricting effort. Even though some of these seats
1:17:33
Speaker 2: were made safer for Republicans. People don't like to they're.
1:17:36
Speaker 1: New, but they're new districts.
1:17:38
Speaker 2: You have to be new with new lines and meet
1:17:42
Speaker 2: new people and fundraising.
1:17:43
Speaker 1: Now, this is one of those perfect storms. The times
1:17:47
Speaker 1: that we've had record breaking retirements are when we've had
1:17:51
Speaker 1: both an unpopped the majority party is in the White
1:17:55
Speaker 1: House and it's unpopular, coupled with a reapportionment, right it
1:18:00
Speaker 1: redistricting year nineteen ninety two is one of the ninety
1:18:02
Speaker 1: four cycle sort of was a big one on that,
1:18:05
Speaker 1: both ninety two and ninety fourths or two cycles in
1:18:07
Speaker 1: a row. And here we are in a mid decade.
1:18:11
Speaker 1: But it's both an unpopular majority party that they're facing,
1:18:16
Speaker 1: which is sort of the typical six year ititch type
1:18:18
Speaker 1: of mindset, and it happens to there's a whole bunch
1:18:21
Speaker 1: of redistricting that happened, and so you don't want to
1:18:23
Speaker 1: you already fighting an uphill battle, and you know, do
1:18:26
Speaker 1: I really I know I'm in a fifty nine percent district,
1:18:29
Speaker 1: but fifty nine percent districts might be swing districts. I
1:18:31
Speaker 1: don't want to have to race ten million dollars.
1:18:34
Speaker 2: This cycle, right, totally, totally. And one member from a
1:18:38
Speaker 2: swing district, you know, said that they're going to have
1:18:41
Speaker 2: to raise tens of millions of dollars for you know,
1:18:44
Speaker 2: they're in a big media market whatever, but you know,
1:18:49
Speaker 2: they just said that their race could be a sixty
1:18:53
Speaker 2: million dollar race for not you know, total, but for
1:18:56
Speaker 2: a district, which is which is mind these days.
1:19:01
Speaker 1: And you know, you know, I've never been like a
1:19:04
Speaker 1: huge the whole money in politics thing like I've I've
1:19:08
Speaker 1: I've I empathized with those that fight, you know, that
1:19:12
Speaker 1: are in that advocacy world. And it's just like, hey man,
1:19:14
Speaker 1: money in politics, it's just you're never going to you know,
1:19:17
Speaker 1: get rid of it. But but you do. You're like, Okay,
1:19:20
Speaker 1: this is getting crazy because North Carolina Senate, it's probably
1:19:24
Speaker 1: going to be our first billion dollar centuries one billion
1:19:27
Speaker 1: with a B. Main's going to be six hundred million
1:19:31
Speaker 1: is an estimate. Maine, Okay, Like no, right, and like
1:19:36
Speaker 1: you're going to buy Boston to get the tiniest piece
1:19:38
Speaker 1: of like of the southern tier of Portland. Right, it
1:19:43
Speaker 1: is we are we have hit absurd levels on money
1:19:48
Speaker 1: where if you don't have access to rich people, you
1:19:52
Speaker 1: can't run for office. And that is where suddenly when
1:19:56
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders runs around saying oligarchy, you're like, well, I am,
1:20:02
Speaker 1: how do you holse? Do you what do you call it?
1:20:04
Speaker 1: Where everybody that runs for office has to have a
1:20:06
Speaker 1: rich person on their side in order to win.
1:20:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, or be rich. It's you know, I was talking
1:20:12
Speaker 2: to a couple members the other day and they said
1:20:15
Speaker 2: that now fifty percent of their time is spent fundraising.
1:20:19
Speaker 2: And you know, I mean, I don't even know how
1:20:23
Speaker 2: you find the time. You barely sleep, but that is
1:20:26
Speaker 2: just miserable to have to sit there and call people
1:20:31
Speaker 2: and call people, and you know, and there's a point
1:20:35
Speaker 2: of everyone admits that there's a point of diminishing returns,
1:20:38
Speaker 2: that too much money actually stops working, but you still
1:20:42
Speaker 2: have to raise it, and you still have to spend it.
1:20:52
Speaker 1: And all those donors. You know, it's funny now the
1:20:55
Speaker 1: million dollar donor thinks, hey, I gave a million dollars.
1:20:59
Speaker 1: I expect them, I expect something I expect, you know,
1:21:02
Speaker 1: And the average member of Congress going, yeah, you know,
1:21:06
Speaker 1: I'll jump, I'll I'll jump if you're a ten million
1:21:10
Speaker 1: dollar donor. But a million dollar donors there's a get
1:21:13
Speaker 1: you know. I joke. I give a little bit of
1:21:15
Speaker 1: money to the University of Miami Athletic Department. I also
1:21:18
Speaker 1: give money to my alma moner, GW basketball. I give
1:21:22
Speaker 1: less to GW basketball, but they're more grateful because I'm
1:21:25
Speaker 1: a it's a smaller pool right when you're part of
1:21:29
Speaker 1: you think you think you're giving a lot of money,
1:21:31
Speaker 1: and you're like, yeah, there's there's fifty people ahead of
1:21:33
Speaker 1: you that give all that, you know, and they're going
1:21:36
Speaker 1: to get the priority, and they're going to get the attention,
1:21:38
Speaker 1: and they're going to get the love and affection and
1:21:39
Speaker 1: all of that stuff. So a million dollars doesn't even
1:21:42
Speaker 1: buy what it used to buy anymore when it comes
1:21:45
Speaker 1: to donors, which is just perverted, I'm sorry, just perverting
1:21:49
Speaker 1: the system. The system's already a mess.
1:21:51
Speaker 2: Well, then Trump has, you know, a billion dollars of
1:21:54
Speaker 2: his own money that he could spend to help House
1:21:58
Speaker 2: Republicans keep the majority. He hasn't yet. He has said
1:22:02
Speaker 2: that he will help, but they have not yet gotten
1:22:04
Speaker 2: a commitment as to how much, how what that's going
1:22:09
Speaker 2: to look like. And I'm really interested. I don't know
1:22:12
Speaker 2: the answer to this yet, but I'm really interested, Like,
1:22:16
Speaker 2: is he going to spend a bunch of money to
1:22:18
Speaker 2: try to primary state senators who don't go along with redistricting,
1:22:23
Speaker 2: which will have no impact on control of the House.
1:22:28
Speaker 1: But no, you're probably just dividing your own party and
1:22:31
Speaker 1: just making it that much harder to have a good ninture.
1:22:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, And you know, and getting back to
1:22:39
Speaker 2: the lack of legislating. Trump is so determined to keep
1:22:46
Speaker 2: control of the House that he unleashed this entire bloody
1:22:49
Speaker 2: redistricting war for what not to legislate because he does
1:22:53
Speaker 2: not want to get impeached again.
1:22:55
Speaker 1: Like, so, what's the likelihood of that? I mean, I
1:22:59
Speaker 1: find this.
1:23:00
Speaker 2: I think I think it's low.
1:23:04
Speaker 1: I don't think I think it's I can't think of
1:23:07
Speaker 1: a dumber idea for House Democrats in the seventh year
1:23:11
Speaker 1: of Trump being in president of the United States to
1:23:14
Speaker 1: impeach him. I mean, look, I'm not saying you might
1:23:16
Speaker 1: have grounds to do it. I'm not saying to me,
1:23:19
Speaker 1: if if the next group, if if people want to
1:23:23
Speaker 1: impeach him, let the Republicans impeach him.
1:23:26
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I agree, And I think that it's I
1:23:29
Speaker 2: think that Democrats aren't going to do it. We'll see
1:23:33
Speaker 2: what Trump does. But but yeah, so he's operating. Trump
1:23:37
Speaker 2: is operating out of this PTSD from his first term
1:23:41
Speaker 2: in these impeachments, and that's why he wants to prevent
1:23:44
Speaker 2: Democrats from ruining the House. Has nothing to do with
1:23:47
Speaker 2: his agenda or his goals or what he wants to
1:23:49
Speaker 2: do for the country.
1:23:50
Speaker 1: All right, of the let's talk about the four leaders. Yeah, Johnson,
1:23:54
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Schumer, Thoon. Let's start with who I think are
1:23:59
Speaker 1: the most unpopular within their own party these days for
1:24:02
Speaker 1: a variety of reasons. Johnson on the Republican side, Schumer
1:24:05
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side. Who's more likely to return as
1:24:11
Speaker 1: leader of their of You know, in this case, Johnson
1:24:15
Speaker 1: might be the minority leader, but he would still be
1:24:17
Speaker 1: the leader if Republicans lose the House come January fourth,
1:24:24
Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven. I mean who's still going to be there?
1:24:26
Speaker 1: Schumer or Johnson?
1:24:28
Speaker 2: I think Schumer I don't think he'll be there, yeah,
1:24:31
Speaker 2: and Johnson won't Yeah. I mean, of course, it all
1:24:34
Speaker 2: will depend on the outcome of the.
1:24:36
Speaker 1: Mis Johnson only come back if they somehow hold the House.
1:24:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, if they lose a house, I think that
1:24:44
Speaker 2: there's going to be a huge shake up in leadership.
1:24:47
Speaker 1: On likelihood that Johnson seeks reelection, so.
1:24:53
Speaker 2: He'll serve you know for twenty eight you mean no,
1:24:57
Speaker 2: I think for you think he definitely runs through re
1:24:59
Speaker 2: election this sight, right, I think he definitely runs.
1:25:01
Speaker 1: Because that would send does he because remember Paul Ryan
1:25:04
Speaker 1: announced in April right of eighteen he wasn't coming back. Yeah,
1:25:08
Speaker 1: you don't expect something like that from Johnson.
1:25:10
Speaker 2: I don't. Johnson thinks way too highly of himself and
1:25:14
Speaker 2: his ability to bow out. Now, Yeah, I think he's
1:25:20
Speaker 2: in it for this cycle. I think that if Republicans
1:25:24
Speaker 2: lose the House, you know, they lose that slot, and
1:25:27
Speaker 2: so there's not a spot for him unless he becomes
1:25:31
Speaker 2: leader minority leader. But then there's Scalise, that's the person.
1:25:36
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's going to run for reelection
1:25:38
Speaker 2: as Scalise. I think he's a higher probability of not
1:25:42
Speaker 2: than Johnson for sure.
1:25:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's already found out he's never going to be speaker. Yea, Right,
1:25:46
Speaker 1: he learned that the hard way in his was he
1:25:49
Speaker 1: six hours that he tried to get the votes? Was
1:25:52
Speaker 1: that what it was about, right, Like, okay, go ahead,
1:25:54
Speaker 1: you get about six hours so you can get the
1:25:56
Speaker 1: votes and get the votes. Okay, let's move on. Yeah.
1:25:58
Speaker 2: No, yeah, he's not going to be speaker. He just hasn't.
1:26:05
Speaker 2: He doesn't have the allies among the conference that you need.
1:26:11
Speaker 2: He has made a lot of people angry, and then
1:26:17
Speaker 2: who does.
1:26:18
Speaker 1: Who would be Is there a committee chair, in fact,
1:26:21
Speaker 1: is there a committee chair that just gets shipped done
1:26:25
Speaker 1: on the Republican side? That would be like, like I
1:26:27
Speaker 1: remember one of the reasons, but Bob Livingston was supposed
1:26:30
Speaker 1: to be the person to replaced Gingrich, and the reason
1:26:33
Speaker 1: was I think he was on ways and means. It
1:26:35
Speaker 1: was like, you know, he gets stuff done, Like you
1:26:36
Speaker 1: know the idea that a committee chair that can get
1:26:39
Speaker 1: stuff done, especially in a tough committee like ways and
1:26:42
Speaker 1: Means or approbes or something like that, or even rules
1:26:44
Speaker 1: that it like, Okay, if you know how to do that,
1:26:46
Speaker 1: then maybe you've got the skill set to be to
1:26:49
Speaker 1: be Speaker or to be leader of the caucus. Who's
1:26:52
Speaker 1: the committee chair that knows what they're doing?
1:26:54
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan's He's the quiet which is crazy that these
1:27:00
Speaker 2: if you know Wyatt and that's why he is subtle,
1:27:05
Speaker 2: He's very he's going to give this.
1:27:07
Speaker 1: One more college tries to be leader of the House Republicans.
1:27:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think it's Jim Jordan. I think that
1:27:15
Speaker 2: Tom Emmer. He has some enemies too, but he really
1:27:21
Speaker 2: has a good relationship with the Freedom Caucus and so
1:27:25
Speaker 2: I think he could have a shot he has built.
1:27:27
Speaker 2: He's like worked really hard to build that relationship with Trump,
1:27:32
Speaker 2: and so those are.
1:27:32
Speaker 1: The still though, isn't it.
1:27:34
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I think it's gotten a lot
1:27:38
Speaker 2: better this year, especially with he's the guy who kind
1:27:45
Speaker 2: of has to clean up Johnson's mess a lot, or
1:27:48
Speaker 2: try to. And Richard Hudson, Yeah, you know Richard Hudson.
1:27:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's one that I get, like, I hear good,
1:27:57
Speaker 1: I hear people don't have bad words to say about him,
1:27:59
Speaker 1: whether they're or non mega.
1:28:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, and everyone like really likes him. He's like a
1:28:04
Speaker 2: fun person. I don't want the job, but but yeah,
1:28:10
Speaker 2: you know, I forgot about him actually, but yeah, he's
1:28:12
Speaker 2: someone that you can keep in mind. But as far
1:28:14
Speaker 2: as like Schumer is concerned, you know Schumer, I do
1:28:18
Speaker 2: not think he's running for reelection. No one on the hill,
1:28:23
Speaker 2: no Democrat thinks he's running for reelection.
1:28:26
Speaker 1: I can't imagine him doing it. Nobody have talked to
1:28:28
Speaker 1: New York. I think people would be shocked if he did.
1:28:32
Speaker 1: And I assume the only way he does is if
1:28:35
Speaker 1: somehow Democrats get the Senate and he's a majority leader again,
1:28:38
Speaker 1: then he might not want to give it up.
1:28:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a possibility, but I
1:28:42
Speaker 2: think that he's just like too damaged within the party,
1:28:45
Speaker 2: I think. But I think the reason he's going to
1:28:47
Speaker 2: be leader after twenty six or you know, if they win,
1:28:51
Speaker 2: if they win the majority, then absolutely, If they don't,
1:28:56
Speaker 2: I think he'll still be leader. Kind of let him.
1:28:58
Speaker 1: But there might be a real challenge they don't, right,
1:29:00
Speaker 1: especially if like that, Let's say Democrats win forty seats
1:29:03
Speaker 1: again in the House. Yeah, right, it's a forty seat
1:29:05
Speaker 1: pick up in the House, thirty to forty. The new
1:29:09
Speaker 1: forty would be thirty. So let's say it's thirty, right,
1:29:11
Speaker 1: twenty five to thirty, which I think is the highest
1:29:14
Speaker 1: end it could be, and Democrats only pick up two sentences, right,
1:29:19
Speaker 1: And you know, I imagine there's a little bit of do
1:29:24
Speaker 1: you guys know what you're doing, you know, with when
1:29:26
Speaker 1: it comes to Senate races, et cetera, et cetera.
1:29:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's already that people are mad about
1:29:30
Speaker 2: the primaries and the heavy handed of like Grandpaton, you know,
1:29:33
Speaker 2: but they's.
1:29:34
Speaker 1: So what's funny about it is that where they're heavy
1:29:36
Speaker 1: handed is stupid, and where they're not heavy handed, it's stupid,
1:29:40
Speaker 1: like like Texas, how did you let that happen? And
1:29:43
Speaker 1: then you tried to get involved in Iowa and Maine,
1:29:47
Speaker 1: Like it makes no sense to have gotten involved in
1:29:49
Speaker 1: Iowa in particular, you know, I with Maine. I kind
1:29:53
Speaker 1: of get it now, how they how they how they
1:29:58
Speaker 1: leak that. I just think the way they handle the
1:30:00
Speaker 1: OPO on Platner was just stupid. They were like, look
1:30:03
Speaker 1: at all this fluff we got, you actually turned am in.
1:30:05
Speaker 1: You wasted all of that ammunition, just complete just absolute
1:30:10
Speaker 1: political research practice. It was stupid. I don't know who
1:30:15
Speaker 1: made that decision. Was that a d SEC decision or
1:30:17
Speaker 1: a Janet Mills campaign decision? It was just stupid.
1:30:20
Speaker 2: I heard it was a DS decision. I don't you know. Again,
1:30:24
Speaker 2: I'm just but I was told that, like the Janet
1:30:28
Speaker 2: Mills operation, like they're I mean, they're good, she won governor,
1:30:32
Speaker 2: but they're not like they're not DS material.
1:30:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is a d dss DS material. I'm sorry,
1:30:40
Speaker 1: what proof has the DS been anything. I'm some of
1:30:43
Speaker 1: those guys I love over there, and I've they've been
1:30:45
Speaker 1: good sources for me for decades. But that's the problem.
1:30:49
Speaker 1: I think that they still think everything looks like two
1:30:52
Speaker 1: thousand and six or twenty twelve. I just think that
1:30:55
Speaker 1: they've lost I think they've lost touch on where today's
1:30:59
Speaker 1: Democratic Party and today's swing voter is. And then there's
1:31:03
Speaker 1: conceding defeat in all of these light red states. Yeah,
1:31:07
Speaker 1: they just are conceding defeat. Where are they in Kansas?
1:31:10
Speaker 1: Where are they in Florida? Where are they in some
1:31:12
Speaker 1: of these states that they've got to put on the
1:31:15
Speaker 1: map even if they don't get to fifty.
1:31:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there's obviously, I mean, you are just expressing
1:31:23
Speaker 2: the frustration with Democratic Caucus, who was thinking the exact
1:31:29
Speaker 2: same thing. But Jillibrand is an ally of Schumer's. She's
1:31:35
Speaker 2: a loyal soldier, and it's really Schumer who's running it. Obviously.
1:31:40
Speaker 1: Well, the fact that you don't see jili Brand ever
1:31:42
Speaker 1: speak about Center racist publicly, I mean she keeps a
1:31:45
Speaker 1: very low profile. Yeah, it has always been right. It's
1:31:49
Speaker 1: interesting how low of a profile she's kept on this.
1:31:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, it actually is. I hadn't even thought about that,
1:31:54
Speaker 2: but it is, I think because my brain just always
1:31:56
Speaker 2: goes to Schumer. I don't even didn't even realize it.
1:32:00
Speaker 1: Which is what makes the which was what made that decision.
1:32:03
Speaker 1: I would semi surprise that the rest of the Senate
1:32:05
Speaker 1: Democrats wanted to concentrate all of that with the two
1:32:08
Speaker 1: New Yorkers.
1:32:10
Speaker 2: Yeah they didn't.
1:32:13
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Jeffries. He's going to get a shot
1:32:18
Speaker 1: at being speaker, it seems like. But there I feel
1:32:21
Speaker 1: like there's creeping doubts about whether he's got it, But
1:32:26
Speaker 1: nobody's going to challenge him per se if it stepped
1:32:30
Speaker 1: in front of him unless they somehow didn't win the House.
1:32:32
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I think that he is being given a
1:32:39
Speaker 2: very long runway. But I will also say I feel
1:32:43
Speaker 2: like last week, with the whole health care debacle in
1:32:46
Speaker 2: on the Republican side, that Democrats that that could be
1:32:51
Speaker 2: the week that Hakim Jeffries became Speaker of the House.
1:32:55
Speaker 2: Like I think that maybe you can point and you know,
1:32:57
Speaker 2: we'll obviously see that happens in the next ten but
1:33:00
Speaker 2: I feel like that was a really critical week for Jeffries.
1:33:05
Speaker 2: His long shot messaging bill of a three year extension
1:33:09
Speaker 2: of the Obamacare subsidies, which no one had thought had
1:33:13
Speaker 2: any chance discharged, now has support from Republicans because the
1:33:18
Speaker 2: Republicans messed it up so much and you know, throughout
1:33:23
Speaker 2: this process, some Democrats were telling me outside Democrats were
1:33:26
Speaker 2: telling me that Jefferies had not been given enough credit
1:33:29
Speaker 2: for the strategy. And I feel like they or they
1:33:34
Speaker 2: feel like they're validated. Now. You know, Jeffries has a
1:33:39
Speaker 2: lot of challenges.
1:33:43
Speaker 1: I don't envy. I think he's got the toughest job
1:33:44
Speaker 1: of anybody right now in leadership outside of Johnson. Johnson's
1:33:47
Speaker 1: got his own, but he sort of he allows himself
1:33:50
Speaker 1: to be put in a box. Jeffries has got. You know. Look,
1:33:54
Speaker 1: I think Jeffries and Schumers should take more incoming for
1:33:59
Speaker 1: for mismanaging the New York City mayors race, like just
1:34:02
Speaker 1: completely screwing up the Cuomo you know how they mismanage
1:34:06
Speaker 1: that is to me on the two leaders of the
1:34:08
Speaker 1: Democratic Party both are from New York City, and they
1:34:11
Speaker 1: buried their head in the sand when Andy Cuomo decided
1:34:13
Speaker 1: that he was going to run. What the heth were
1:34:15
Speaker 1: they thinking? Right? Like, they just didn't It's not about
1:34:18
Speaker 1: mam Donnie, mom, Donnie to me, is a symptom of
1:34:21
Speaker 1: the mismanagement of the Cuomo situation.
1:34:23
Speaker 2: Well also totally, I mean, and the funny thing is
1:34:27
Speaker 2: is that Schumer and Cuomo have a horrific relationship. Schumer
1:34:32
Speaker 2: like Cuomo and the fact that yeah, and they still
1:34:38
Speaker 2: didn't do more so it was really really mystifying. I
1:34:45
Speaker 2: and you never really got a good answer about it.
1:34:49
Speaker 2: I will say that in my reporting, New Yorkers didn't
1:34:52
Speaker 2: really care about what Schumer did. It's just like whatever, No.
1:34:56
Speaker 1: I get that, But it's not about the public perception.
1:34:59
Speaker 1: It's about you want to be a leader of your party. Yeah,
1:35:03
Speaker 1: you're you're You should have jumped in front of the
1:35:06
Speaker 1: freight train that was Andy Cuomo and say sorry, buddy,
1:35:09
Speaker 1: no and found a found a candidate and got behind
1:35:12
Speaker 1: somebody else, or done something differently, maybe, you know, you
1:35:15
Speaker 1: could say. But the the way they they behaved as
1:35:19
Speaker 1: if they were paralyzed by the situation.
1:35:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was. It was very very odd. And it
1:35:25
Speaker 2: was the donors that came down to the donors.
1:35:31
Speaker 1: And I guess, yeah, no, you're right. Well that tells you, right,
1:35:35
Speaker 1: And they said about that Cuomo is the only one
1:35:37
Speaker 1: that could be pro Israel anyway. I just the whole
1:35:40
Speaker 1: thing is just sort of bizarre to me. Let me
1:35:42
Speaker 1: get you out of here. On this is John Thune,
1:35:45
Speaker 1: the tallest little person or does he really has he
1:35:48
Speaker 1: actually started to develop a power base and a power structure.
1:35:54
Speaker 1: I asked, because I've heard crankiness about Thune, meaning that
1:35:59
Speaker 1: they wish Thune. Would they miss Mitch McConnell protecting them
1:36:04
Speaker 1: from tough folks and John. One thing John Thune won't
1:36:07
Speaker 1: do is Sorry, guys, I'm not standing in the way
1:36:09
Speaker 1: of this vote that Trump wants, you know, but the
1:36:11
Speaker 1: but he did shut down the the filibuster talk right
1:36:15
Speaker 1: getting of the filibuster, so that I assume won him
1:36:18
Speaker 1: some plaudits. But where's the how would you assess Thunes
1:36:22
Speaker 1: uh hold on his position right now?
1:36:26
Speaker 2: Good? I think that that's why you see the least
1:36:29
Speaker 2: amount written about Thune is because it's hard to come
1:36:32
Speaker 2: up with like a good story about Thuone people generally
1:36:36
Speaker 2: like him. The filibuster was a huge test, will continue
1:36:42
Speaker 2: to be a huge test. The blue slips. I know
1:36:45
Speaker 2: Grassley is kind of leading that, but you know, no
1:36:48
Speaker 2: other kind of disinstitutional stuff. And also how the NRSC
1:36:53
Speaker 2: like how these primaries go. There's some frustration that the
1:36:58
Speaker 2: NRSC VSA of e Fune is also not being tough
1:37:02
Speaker 2: enough in some of these primaries, like in Texas.
1:37:06
Speaker 1: No, I could I could hear an argument. You know,
1:37:08
Speaker 1: I didn't think Cornyn was going to file because I
1:37:11
Speaker 1: thought he would feel pressure not to file. Yeah, because
1:37:14
Speaker 1: Pax didn't be in the nominee is a huge problem.
1:37:17
Speaker 2: Yes, it's an absolutely huge problem. But he filed and
1:37:24
Speaker 2: they Yeah, they've really mismanaged that and they were unable
1:37:29
Speaker 2: to keep Wesley Hunt out of the out of the race,
1:37:34
Speaker 2: and so, you know, it is it's a big test
1:37:37
Speaker 2: for thoone. It's interesting because McConnell in twelve and fourteen,
1:37:43
Speaker 2: after fourteen, I think it was that's when he really
1:37:47
Speaker 2: became involved in primaries and in the Purple Operation because
1:37:52
Speaker 2: he was screwed so badly in the primaries and John
1:37:55
Speaker 2: Cornyn ironically was the NRSC chair in twelve and fourteen
1:38:00
Speaker 2: having to deal with, you know, taking a back seat
1:38:02
Speaker 2: in these crazy primaries, and then McConnell stepped in after
1:38:07
Speaker 2: that and is like, no, I'm running this operation. So
1:38:10
Speaker 2: Dune hasn't seemed to do that yet and people are
1:38:12
Speaker 2: kind of wanting him to put a little muscle. But
1:38:16
Speaker 2: that's really the biggest complaint I've heard.
1:38:18
Speaker 1: Interesting, Well, it's the best beat in Washington still isn't
1:38:23
Speaker 1: it leante?
1:38:23
Speaker 2: It is, Yes, it is.
1:38:25
Speaker 1: You know, it's always been my mantra. It's the best
1:38:27
Speaker 1: beat in Washington, don't you know. Don't try to go
1:38:31
Speaker 1: cover the white House. It sucks. Covering the white House
1:38:34
Speaker 1: is boring. Yeah, and the Hill is awesome.
1:38:36
Speaker 2: Now the white House is more prestigious, but the Hill
1:38:39
Speaker 2: is the best.
1:38:40
Speaker 1: That's where you actually find news. Let me get you
1:38:43
Speaker 1: out of here on this. How do you describe when
1:38:47
Speaker 1: you have to tell people what Puck is that aren't
1:38:49
Speaker 1: familiar with it, how do you describe it?
1:38:53
Speaker 2: I describe it as an email subscription newsletter. That the
1:39:01
Speaker 2: easiest way to describe it, I tell say is it's
1:39:06
Speaker 2: like a newer vanity fair, like a new version of vanity.
1:39:14
Speaker 1: Interesting because because there's you know, there's some culture, there's business,
1:39:19
Speaker 1: there's there's there's even sports now, right, It's it's sort
1:39:23
Speaker 1: of the the look I like the idea of the
1:39:27
Speaker 1: four Corners, Silicon Valley, New York, Washington, LA. Right, like
1:39:31
Speaker 1: all of the cultural touchstones of America that sort of
1:39:35
Speaker 1: make us, you know, uh, make things run. But it's
1:39:40
Speaker 1: a I get it, but I imagine it is sometimes
1:39:43
Speaker 1: hard to describe.
1:39:44
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, and that's why I say that because also
1:39:47
Speaker 2: the writing, you know, the writing matters. They really take
1:39:51
Speaker 2: a lot of we will take a lot of pride
1:39:53
Speaker 2: in in the presentation, and I feel like I'm writing
1:39:58
Speaker 2: a mini magazine piece every time I write. And so
1:40:02
Speaker 2: it just you know, our editors, you know John Kelly
1:40:05
Speaker 2: who started it, the top editor. They both came from
1:40:09
Speaker 2: Vanity Fair, Like so many people grew up in that
1:40:12
Speaker 2: Vanity Fair Heyday world, and so it's like a modern
1:40:16
Speaker 2: version of that.
1:40:18
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny you say Vanity Fair, even though Vanity
1:40:21
Speaker 1: Fair was was a monthly and so didn't you know
1:40:24
Speaker 1: I would argue what you guys, because I agree. It's
1:40:27
Speaker 1: that it reminds me more of the weekly pieces that
1:40:30
Speaker 1: Time and Newsweek used to produce that were filled with
1:40:33
Speaker 1: because Time and Newsweek didn't have to worry about the
1:40:36
Speaker 1: day to day manutia, they got to take a step
1:40:38
Speaker 1: back and sort of have that. And so to me,
1:40:42
Speaker 1: you most emulate Howard Feinneman from the nineties. Oh, because
1:40:46
Speaker 1: Howard Fineman was the chief political correspondent for Newsweek and
1:40:49
Speaker 1: he always sort of authored the big picture. Nancy Gibbs
1:40:53
Speaker 1: was the person that Time Magazine you know, and she
1:40:55
Speaker 1: eventually became editor of Time, but she also was that,
1:40:58
Speaker 1: you know, there were these who could write it in
1:41:02
Speaker 1: its tremendous skill and it is what I think smart,
1:41:05
Speaker 1: the way smart people want to consume this information.
1:41:08
Speaker 2: So well, thanks. Yeah, I think that it's like a
1:41:11
Speaker 2: great niche and I think it was missing, especially in
1:41:16
Speaker 2: this like you know, cable news, yeah, and punch bowl
1:41:21
Speaker 2: News of like every minute this is happening.
1:41:25
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bring up the there's two news
1:41:27
Speaker 1: organizations that should have been filling this vacuum and chose
1:41:29
Speaker 1: not to, and you used to work out one of them. Yeah. Yeah,
1:41:35
Speaker 1: We'll leave it there, Leah Caldwell. Always a pressure. Enjoy
1:41:38
Speaker 1: the holidays, Enjoy your break.
1:41:39
Speaker 2: Thanks YouTube, Chuck.
1:41:49
Speaker 1: So there you go everything you need to know about
1:41:51
Speaker 1: Congress again. We have my debate about the prediction markets,
1:42:00
Speaker 1: but Mike Johnson staying speaker for the all of the
1:42:03
Speaker 1: twenty twenty sixth calendar year. The odds aren't one hundred percent.
1:42:08
Speaker 1: Question is are they even fifty percent? Just something to
1:42:11
Speaker 1: think about there. All right, let's go into the toodcast
1:42:14
Speaker 1: time machine for our little history lesson of the week,
1:42:24
Speaker 1: and we are going back to December twenty sixth, nineteen
1:42:27
Speaker 1: ninety one for a reminder. How do I pick my
1:42:32
Speaker 1: historical deep dives for the toodcast time Machine. I just
1:42:35
Speaker 1: look at the week we are in and look back
1:42:38
Speaker 1: in history for essentially this week in history, but instead
1:42:43
Speaker 1: of calling it this week in history, you do the
1:42:44
Speaker 1: podcast time Machine. So we're going back to December twenty sixth,
1:42:47
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one. It's pretty momentous day in world history.
1:42:51
Speaker 1: It was the day that the Soviet Union formally dissolved,
1:42:55
Speaker 1: officially ending the Cold War. On December twenty seventh, Mikhail
1:42:59
Speaker 1: Gorbachev resigned as leader of said Soviet Union, and so
1:43:05
Speaker 1: we thought the end of history. But it's actually a
1:43:09
Speaker 1: pretty good reminder, and it's actually go dovetails pretty well
1:43:14
Speaker 1: with the time Machine episode we did a couple of
1:43:18
Speaker 1: weeks ago on the fall of the Ottoman Empire and
1:43:21
Speaker 1: how you know, some things are still not resolved, okay,
1:43:25
Speaker 1: and the fall of the Ottoman Empire and World War One.
1:43:28
Speaker 1: We haven't resolved War War one. We resolved World War
1:43:30
Speaker 1: two more than we've resolved World War One. Well, the
1:43:33
Speaker 1: collapse of the Soviet Union, I would argue, is still unresolved. Right,
1:43:39
Speaker 1: it is. It is too I could it is too
1:43:42
Speaker 1: soon to declare whether it was an historical positive or
1:43:46
Speaker 1: an historical negative. Why do I say that? Well, let
1:43:49
Speaker 1: me let's go back down, Let's go into the rabbit hole,
1:43:52
Speaker 1: that is the collapse of the Soviet Union. So it's
1:43:56
Speaker 1: late ninety and the Soviet flag comes down over the Kremlin.
1:43:59
Speaker 1: The Cold War ended not with a bang, not with
1:44:02
Speaker 1: a war, but simply with a resignation, right for Mikhail Gorbachev,
1:44:07
Speaker 1: and we all exhaled because for the first time in
1:44:10
Speaker 1: nearly half a century Americans, we're going to go into
1:44:13
Speaker 1: a new year without a superpower rival staring us down.
1:44:16
Speaker 1: No nuclear brinksmanship, no ideological stand up, no Berlin Wall.
1:44:21
Speaker 1: I mean I had, by the way, I had matchbox
1:44:26
Speaker 1: cars that were made in West Germany. Okay, So for me,
1:44:30
Speaker 1: my fifty three years on this planet, this is still
1:44:34
Speaker 1: a monumental and unbelievable event, especially when you're raised one
1:44:38
Speaker 1: way and all of a sudden everything is new. But
1:44:46
Speaker 1: all of this felt final, right, It felt resolved. It
1:44:49
Speaker 1: felt like history chose a winner. Francis Fukuyama famously even
1:44:53
Speaker 1: called at the end of history, we'll get into that
1:44:55
Speaker 1: actually in my time machine segment here. But as it
1:44:58
Speaker 1: turns out, we were not witnessing the end of anything.
1:45:02
Speaker 1: It was essentially the end of the first act. It
1:45:05
Speaker 1: was arguably the end of the beginning, as they say,
1:45:09
Speaker 1: and I don't know if we're now at the beginning
1:45:11
Speaker 1: of the end. So when the Soviet Union formally dissolved
1:45:15
Speaker 1: on December twenty sixth, nineteen ninety one, the dominant emotion
1:45:19
Speaker 1: in the West wasn't fear. It was confidence. Communism had failed,
1:45:24
Speaker 1: market capitalism had won, small l small D liberal democracy
1:45:29
Speaker 1: stood alone. The liberal democrats won, and that confidence found
1:45:33
Speaker 1: its most famous intellectual expression in the work of Francis Fuguiyama,
1:45:37
Speaker 1: whose argument popularized by the headline that was the end
1:45:41
Speaker 1: of history. Sometimes headlines can warp a perception of very
1:45:47
Speaker 1: detailed analysis, but it did capture the mood of the moment,
1:45:50
Speaker 1: right there is no more historical fight over authoritarianism or democracy.
1:45:54
Speaker 1: Democracy was the winner. And that is what he was
1:45:58
Speaker 1: arguing in that sense, is that there wasn't He was
1:46:01
Speaker 1: essentially saying, wasn't going to be the end of history,
1:46:04
Speaker 1: maybe even the end of authoritarianism, but there was no
1:46:07
Speaker 1: more legitimate ideological rival to liberal democracy, But what did
1:46:14
Speaker 1: a lot of people here instead? Hey, the hard part
1:46:17
Speaker 1: is over. The direction of history is settled, and what
1:46:21
Speaker 1: comes next is just implementation. You know, once we introduced
1:46:25
Speaker 1: democracy fully in Russia's piece of cake. Unfortunately, when you
1:46:31
Speaker 1: think that way, you stop asking certain questions. Right, And
1:46:34
Speaker 1: one of the biggest mistakes I think that we made
1:46:37
Speaker 1: in the early nineteen nineties was treating the Soviet Union
1:46:39
Speaker 1: like it was simply a failed state, one country. It wasn't.
1:46:43
Speaker 1: This was a collapsed empire. Allah, the fall of the
1:46:46
Speaker 1: Ottoman Empire. Empire collapses don't behave like regime changes. They
1:46:52
Speaker 1: actually behave like massive earthquakes. Right, there's all sorts of aftershocks.
1:46:57
Speaker 1: Borders will move faster than identities do, Institutions disappear faster
1:47:02
Speaker 1: than replacements can be built because of this large structure.
1:47:05
Speaker 1: That's what we saw at the fall of the Ottoman
1:47:06
Speaker 1: Empire in the Middle East. That's what we saw the
1:47:08
Speaker 1: fall of the Soviet Union, and the humiliation often outweighs
1:47:13
Speaker 1: the liberation. It's not like people the humiliation of the
1:47:16
Speaker 1: Soviet Union or the former Soviet Union, particularly Russia, didn't
1:47:21
Speaker 1: necessarily lead to euphoria. There and so that's why I
1:47:26
Speaker 1: think the better. You know, we sort of treated the
1:47:28
Speaker 1: fall of the Soviet Union like the post war Germany
1:47:31
Speaker 1: or post war Japan, when it really should have been
1:47:34
Speaker 1: treated like the Ottoman Empire. Then again, we didn't do
1:47:37
Speaker 1: that one right either, right, So we had new nations
1:47:40
Speaker 1: with weak institutions of former Soviet republics. There was deep
1:47:44
Speaker 1: resentment in the former imperial core because they've lost their status. So,
1:47:49
Speaker 1: you know, Russians weren't all enthusiastic about this, as we know,
1:47:52
Speaker 1: as Vladimir Putin did this day professes, and we've had
1:47:58
Speaker 1: decades of instability before anything that's resembled small d democratic
1:48:02
Speaker 1: normalcy which has emerged. It's happened in a few places,
1:48:06
Speaker 1: but it's still fledgling, right. You know, it's better in
1:48:08
Speaker 1: your Estonias and in your Polands, it's less so even
1:48:12
Speaker 1: in your Ukraine's not good and hungry, certainly terrible in Russia.
1:48:17
Speaker 1: On the Ottoman Empire, the best you know post fall
1:48:21
Speaker 1: story is Turkey, and that's not exactly a great story,
1:48:26
Speaker 1: and in fact, it had its ups and downs. Even
1:48:28
Speaker 1: after the fall of the empire. It took us, there
1:48:31
Speaker 1: was a coup, there was another collapse, So it was
1:48:37
Speaker 1: this we should have realized this was not going to
1:48:41
Speaker 1: be a straight line and so, but it doesn't introduce
1:48:47
Speaker 1: the question why is democracy not taken in Russia? Right?
1:48:51
Speaker 1: And there's always been this sense of well, if if
1:48:53
Speaker 1: a society doesn't have a history of it, it's not
1:48:56
Speaker 1: going to work. That you're going to have a few
1:49:00
Speaker 1: sort of false starts, right, But the question is is
1:49:07
Speaker 1: that the people or was it structural? And I think
1:49:09
Speaker 1: there's a good argument here on structure. Look, there wasn't
1:49:12
Speaker 1: any democratic muscle memory, right, that was a big problem. Okay,
1:49:16
Speaker 1: not easy. I think Poland had a better shot because
1:49:19
Speaker 1: you had an opposition, right, Lequalessa was the opposition, but
1:49:23
Speaker 1: it was an opposition in some ways. It was like
1:49:25
Speaker 1: a government in exile, so there was you could sort
1:49:30
Speaker 1: of see how a democracy would work. There'd be a
1:49:33
Speaker 1: debate and such. But you know, that's may explain why
1:49:40
Speaker 1: Poland worked in Russia didn't. The other part is there
1:49:44
Speaker 1: was no tradition of independent courts in a lot of
1:49:46
Speaker 1: these places, There was no free media, and they hadn't
1:49:49
Speaker 1: had a history of peaceful transfers of power. You also
1:49:53
Speaker 1: had an economic collapse that was taking place even as
1:49:57
Speaker 1: they were trying the West was trying to help with
1:50:00
Speaker 1: so called reform. But what happened was the quick privatization
1:50:05
Speaker 1: of the Soviet sort of public markets to the private
1:50:07
Speaker 1: markets essentially created oligarchs, not a middle class. Right, wealthy
1:50:12
Speaker 1: people were just sort of created out of thin air,
1:50:15
Speaker 1: very similar to what we saw in the fall of
1:50:17
Speaker 1: the Ottoman Empire. Right, you get a king kingdom, you
1:50:21
Speaker 1: get a kingdom, you don't get a king. This tribe here,
1:50:23
Speaker 1: this tribe there, Yes, this tribe here, this tribe here,
1:50:26
Speaker 1: and no, right, you run the oil company, will make
1:50:30
Speaker 1: you wealthy and rich and will privatize it's all yours.
1:50:33
Speaker 1: You do this. Sorry, no, So what happened. You created
1:50:36
Speaker 1: super wealthy people, but you never created a middle class.
1:50:38
Speaker 1: It didn't you know, actual free market capitalism. You know,
1:50:42
Speaker 1: you sort of go from zero to wealthy and you
1:50:45
Speaker 1: sort of earn your way up there. When you just
1:50:47
Speaker 1: sort of get handed it, there's no appreciation, there's just
1:50:53
Speaker 1: no you know, then you end up running it the
1:50:55
Speaker 1: way the only way you knew how it was run
1:50:58
Speaker 1: when you were in charge as an apparactic of the
1:51:02
Speaker 1: Communist party. And so what happened the average Russian they thought,
1:51:08
Speaker 1: this is democracy a bunch of oligarchs. So instead of
1:51:11
Speaker 1: one dictator threatening gulag, we now have all these rich
1:51:15
Speaker 1: people who are just basically ripping off the government. So
1:51:19
Speaker 1: it's no wonder that they didn't fully buy into democracy
1:51:23
Speaker 1: as much as say we did here in the United States, which,
1:51:27
Speaker 1: of course, oh, by the way, took quite a bit
1:51:30
Speaker 1: of time before we became a full democracy. Arguably it
1:51:32
Speaker 1: took us all the way. Our founding was in seventeen
1:51:35
Speaker 1: seventy six. We didn't become a full multi ethnic democracy
1:51:37
Speaker 1: until nineteen sixty five. It's an important fact that we
1:51:44
Speaker 1: sometimes forget when we criticize the inability of other countries
1:51:48
Speaker 1: to hurry up and have democracy ten years after an
1:51:52
Speaker 1: authoritarian regime falls. So I think you had millions of
1:52:02
Speaker 1: Russians who didn't believe that. Boy, this first these first
1:52:05
Speaker 1: few years of democracy don't look like don't look any
1:52:07
Speaker 1: good to them. They're just creating rich dictators. And then
1:52:10
Speaker 1: the third sort of issue was the imperial identity didn't disappear, right,
1:52:17
Speaker 1: it just sort of and how do we know this?
1:52:20
Speaker 1: See Vladimir Putin. And you also had some weirdness because
1:52:25
Speaker 1: of the way the Soviet Union, Russians went and moved
1:52:28
Speaker 1: to other places. So you had this sort of a
1:52:30
Speaker 1: lot of ethnic Russians who woke up suddenly outside of
1:52:34
Speaker 1: Russia's borders, right, former client states suddenly became sovereign neighbors,
1:52:43
Speaker 1: and it just it just became it sapped the identity.
1:52:47
Speaker 1: And I think we we didn't fully appreciate that a
1:52:53
Speaker 1: dictator or somebody with some charisma could quickly exploit that
1:52:58
Speaker 1: loss of identity, right, And we've seen when you feel
1:53:01
Speaker 1: like you lose identity, you're more likely to you know,
1:53:06
Speaker 1: not be a fan of democracy and instead follow a
1:53:11
Speaker 1: follow a charismatic leader who will bring this back to you.
1:53:17
Speaker 1: So there were a few mistakes I think in hindsight
1:53:20
Speaker 1: that we didn't fully understand. Right. So the first choice
1:53:23
Speaker 1: that still defined some of the debates that we're having
1:53:25
Speaker 1: today with the fallow of the Soviet Union was the
1:53:27
Speaker 1: expansion of NATO in the nineties. It was Eastern European
1:53:33
Speaker 1: nations that wanted in on NATO because they feared Russia
1:53:36
Speaker 1: essentially reformulating into it into an empire again. So you
1:53:40
Speaker 1: had Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic. You know, their long
1:53:45
Speaker 1: history is of a very hostile Russia as a neighbor,
1:53:49
Speaker 1: and they wanted some security, so they wanted in on NATO.
1:53:54
Speaker 1: And you know, there was a lot of people on
1:53:56
Speaker 1: the pro NATO side that thought, okay, bringing NATO, bringing
1:53:59
Speaker 1: the these countries into NATO will lock in democratic reforms
1:54:02
Speaker 1: in these countries, which for the most part it actually did.
1:54:05
Speaker 1: Prevents a security vacuum, which in those and many of
1:54:09
Speaker 1: the countries it did and reassure nations that had been
1:54:11
Speaker 1: invaded before. But there were some warnings. George Kennan right,
1:54:15
Speaker 1: who was famous to be the architect of the Cold
1:54:18
Speaker 1: War containment strategy, he'd argued that NATO expansion would be
1:54:23
Speaker 1: a tragic mistake and he believed it would humiliate Russia
1:54:26
Speaker 1: at its weakest moment, that that was a mistake. It
1:54:29
Speaker 1: would strengthen nationalistic forces. Well we've seen that that has
1:54:32
Speaker 1: been true, and it would redefine Russia as a permanent outsider. Now,
1:54:35
Speaker 1: there were those pro NATO expansionists who thought someday Russia
1:54:40
Speaker 1: might be a part of NATO, and a small, d
1:54:42
Speaker 1: democratic Russia would indeed be a part of NATO. Hey,
1:54:45
Speaker 1: guess what, we're thirty years in. Anything can happen. Okay,
1:54:49
Speaker 1: It's not as if any of us thought that the
1:54:52
Speaker 1: former Yugoslavia would just disappear off the face of the earth, right,
1:54:55
Speaker 1: So these things happen. The other decision that came in
1:54:59
Speaker 1: the way of the fall of the Soviet Union was
1:55:01
Speaker 1: the decision by Ukraine to give up its nukes, which
1:55:03
Speaker 1: now I wonder how many Ukrainians think this was a mistake.
1:55:08
Speaker 1: Ukraine possessed at one time the world's third largest nuclear arsenal,
1:55:13
Speaker 1: but under the Buddhapest Memorandum, it agreed that if they
1:55:16
Speaker 1: got rid of essentially got rid of their nukes, they
1:55:18
Speaker 1: would receive security assurances, but they didn't get binding guarantees.
1:55:23
Speaker 1: That would be a problem, right, you want the guarantee
1:55:26
Speaker 1: on the box, as my friend and Tommy Boy once said. So, Look,
1:55:31
Speaker 1: we were all in favor of non proliferation. The fall
1:55:35
Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union made everybody feel as if nuclear
1:55:38
Speaker 1: confrontation was going away anyway. So the fear was loose nukes,
1:55:42
Speaker 1: and so the fear was, hey, consolidate, get his try
1:55:46
Speaker 1: to get these weapons out of these sort of smaller
1:55:51
Speaker 1: former Russian Soviet republics. As you didn't want this stuff
1:55:55
Speaker 1: ending up in the black market, ending up in the
1:55:57
Speaker 1: hands of non state actors. Except and it seemed to
1:56:05
Speaker 1: make sense on arguably now and until Ukraine was invaded
1:56:10
Speaker 1: by Russia. Right, that suddenly now seems like how it
1:56:15
Speaker 1: was done. Now part of it was looks like Ukraine
1:56:18
Speaker 1: didn't ask for enough in return. You give up nukes,
1:56:21
Speaker 1: NATO membership, hard stop. Right, That ultimately, in hindsight, should
1:56:26
Speaker 1: have been what the deal was. So what did the
1:56:29
Speaker 1: end of history really cost us? Well, the biggest mistake
1:56:33
Speaker 1: wasn't NATO expansion, It wasn't Ukraine's nuclear decision, It wasn't
1:56:36
Speaker 1: even the economic shock. The mistake was assuming that direction
1:56:40
Speaker 1: was destiny. We confused the absence of our ideological rival
1:56:45
Speaker 1: with the presence of stability. We treated legitimacy as an inevitability,
1:56:50
Speaker 1: and we underestimated how long it takes societies, not systems,
1:56:54
Speaker 1: but societies to change. Even Fukuyama himself acknowledged that nationalism,
1:56:59
Speaker 1: identity and how our politics never disappeared. They just simply
1:57:02
Speaker 1: went dormant. And that's what we've seen, Right, we're seeing
1:57:05
Speaker 1: a rise of nationalism that looks like we're repeating the
1:57:08
Speaker 1: nineteen twenties and thirties here in this country and in
1:57:11
Speaker 1: Europe and frankly around the world. It's a reminder this
1:57:15
Speaker 1: stuff is dormant. It never goes away. So it's a
1:57:19
Speaker 1: reminder that history as a way, histories don't necessarily end, right,
1:57:27
Speaker 1: It's that we just sort of stopped chronicling of them sometimes.
1:57:31
Speaker 1: And this is where I want to leave you, and
1:57:33
Speaker 1: that this story isn't finished. We are very bad at
1:57:36
Speaker 1: recognizing where we are in the story while we're living
1:57:39
Speaker 1: in it. Take France, they failed at democracy repeatedly before succeeding. Right,
1:57:45
Speaker 1: France was an empire at one point Napoleon et cetera.
1:57:48
Speaker 1: Germany's first democratic experiment collapsed catastrophically. The weim are republic right,
1:57:53
Speaker 1: even the United States, we required a civil war, reconstruction,
1:57:57
Speaker 1: multiple interventions, a contitutional Memen to give women the right
1:58:01
Speaker 1: to vote. Right, we had all sorts of things we
1:58:03
Speaker 1: had to do before we could succeed as a democracy.
1:58:08
Speaker 1: So we're now thirty years right, a little more than
1:58:12
Speaker 1: thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And
1:58:16
Speaker 1: when you could look at it one way, you said, boy,
1:58:18
Speaker 1: that was a failure, you could look at them another way.
1:58:20
Speaker 1: It's more successful than a failure. Or you could just
1:58:24
Speaker 1: say to yourself, do you judge history on a single generation,
1:58:29
Speaker 1: because what if the following happens. What if in another
1:58:33
Speaker 1: thirty years this period looks like a painful but necessary transition.
1:58:37
Speaker 1: If in another thirty years Russia is a stable democracy
1:58:42
Speaker 1: just like Germany. I mean, imagine asking Americans in nineteen
1:58:47
Speaker 1: forty four and telling them that Germany would be this robust,
1:58:53
Speaker 1: small deed democratic leader of Europe in partnership with Franks.
1:59:00
Speaker 1: It's in the UK right. It would have seemed unbelievable
1:59:04
Speaker 1: to Americans in nineteen forty four, let alone Europeans right,
1:59:09
Speaker 1: and essentially within two generations that is what happened. And
1:59:12
Speaker 1: we're only one generation removed from the fall of the
1:59:15
Speaker 1: Soviet Union. So it's likely we're in the middle of
1:59:17
Speaker 1: this and i'd like to I hope to see the
1:59:22
Speaker 1: end of this story, but I don't think we've seen
1:59:24
Speaker 1: the end of this story. It's likely that my son
1:59:26
Speaker 1: and daughter will see the end of this story. It's
1:59:29
Speaker 1: also possible we see a reemergence of another empire before
1:59:33
Speaker 1: we have another another shot at a democracy. Look, Germany
1:59:39
Speaker 1: went through this multiple times. France went through this multiple times,
1:59:44
Speaker 1: and again so did we. So it's thirty plus years.
1:59:49
Speaker 1: The fall of the Soviet Union wasn't the end of history.
1:59:52
Speaker 1: It was literally a pivot. It was another It was
1:59:56
Speaker 1: a fork in the road, and we went down the
1:59:59
Speaker 1: democrac see fork pretty strongly. We're drifting right now. There
2:00:06
Speaker 1: is an authoritarian movement lurking out there, but we're also
2:00:09
Speaker 1: only thirty years removed. And if things turn out to
2:00:13
Speaker 1: be in a more small, d democratic place around the
2:00:16
Speaker 1: world in the next thirty to fifty years, then this
2:00:20
Speaker 1: period that we're all living in the moment that feels
2:00:23
Speaker 1: very unstable will simply be seen as oh, just a
2:00:28
Speaker 1: couple of bumps in the road on the way to
2:00:32
Speaker 1: what was the ultimate destiny. So there you go. There's
2:00:38
Speaker 1: your history lesson and the toodcast time machine for this week.
2:00:48
Speaker 1: So that let's get in a few questions ask Chuck.
2:00:55
Speaker 1: First question comes from Randall from across the Atlantic. Any writs,
2:00:58
Speaker 1: Hey check, I'm a butcher and barbecue enthusiasts from Europe
2:01:02
Speaker 1: and your podcast is part of my weekly routine. Working
2:01:04
Speaker 1: with food and people reminds me how much community, trust
2:01:06
Speaker 1: and shared traditions matter, especially around Christmas. So my question is,
2:01:09
Speaker 1: what do you think is historically made the bond between
2:01:11
Speaker 1: the US and Europe so strong, and why does it
2:01:13
Speaker 1: feel like such a loss that we're letting that connection
2:01:15
Speaker 1: fade at a time when the world needs more shared
2:01:17
Speaker 1: values and good will. Greetings from Leiden in the Netherlands
2:01:20
Speaker 1: from what may be your most loyal, barbecue loving butcher
2:01:23
Speaker 1: across the Atlantic. I love that, and I'd love to
2:01:26
Speaker 1: be trying some Nordic barbecue. Go to northern Europe for barbecue.
2:01:30
Speaker 1: I love this. Who's to say you can't cook over
2:01:34
Speaker 1: a hot flame with some good sauces anywhere around this globe.
2:01:39
Speaker 1: It's interesting. Look, I think it's obvious why we have
2:01:42
Speaker 1: why we should feel as if we have more shared values?
2:01:46
Speaker 1: Right we were are The first rounds of immigrants into
2:01:51
Speaker 1: this country came from Europe, right all over Europe. First
2:01:54
Speaker 1: Western Europe, then we sort of moved to Central Europe.
2:01:56
Speaker 1: Then it became Eastern Europe, etc. Right, And in some ways,
2:01:59
Speaker 1: this whole thing has always moved around the globe. America
2:02:02
Speaker 1: has been at first a magnet for Europe. Then it
2:02:05
Speaker 1: became a magnet. You know, all of the Americas were
2:02:09
Speaker 1: a magnet for Europe by the way, right, South America
2:02:12
Speaker 1: magnet from from Western Europe as well. And then you know,
2:02:19
Speaker 1: it sort of kept moving around the globe, and you
2:02:22
Speaker 1: know in some ways that I think that's that's the
2:02:26
Speaker 1: shortest answer. And there's some shared religious traditions, right, shared
2:02:32
Speaker 1: you know, shared traditions in general. I just take the
2:02:35
Speaker 1: Christmas season in some ways, the Santa Claus I believe
2:02:41
Speaker 1: essentially was a Northern European uh phenomenon that migrated its
2:02:46
Speaker 1: way around the globe and for all of us, and
2:02:50
Speaker 1: certainly became another shared symbol, if you will, between Europe
2:02:55
Speaker 1: and America. But you know, I think that's you know,
2:02:58
Speaker 1: I think that's why we have such a historical bond.
2:03:02
Speaker 1: I think for those of us of a certain age,
2:03:05
Speaker 1: our parents and grandparents, you know, the two big wars
2:03:09
Speaker 1: of the twentieth century are still are still sort of
2:03:14
Speaker 1: in our recent memory. And by the way, and again
2:03:18
Speaker 1: there's sort of dovetails with the history lesson, which is
2:03:21
Speaker 1: sometimes we forget where we are, and that we sometimes
2:03:25
Speaker 1: forget that the moment we're living in we may be
2:03:27
Speaker 1: just in the middle of an historical epoch, if you will, Right,
2:03:30
Speaker 1: we're in the middle of something that if we stuck
2:03:33
Speaker 1: around another hundred years, it would be more understandable. I've
2:03:37
Speaker 1: always said, I can't wait to see what political scientists
2:03:40
Speaker 1: and social scientists say about the era that I'm living
2:03:43
Speaker 1: in now. Fifty years from now. Maybe I'll be coherent
2:03:47
Speaker 1: and alive at one hundred and three, and it'll be
2:03:49
Speaker 1: really interesting to read some of these political science journals
2:03:52
Speaker 1: or have them embedded in a brain chip in my brain,
2:03:55
Speaker 1: whatever ai version of learning is that we use then.
2:04:01
Speaker 1: So I don't want to cop out, if you will,
2:04:04
Speaker 1: I don't want to use that as a cop out,
2:04:05
Speaker 1: but it is. It is a little bit I think
2:04:07
Speaker 1: we I wonder the further away I mean we're seeing
2:04:14
Speaker 1: it now, right, the further away. World War two is
2:04:16
Speaker 1: the further away. The Cold War is the further away
2:04:20
Speaker 1: these moments that did bound us, you know, where we
2:04:27
Speaker 1: had to stick together to fight for our values, not
2:04:31
Speaker 1: just for something, not just for something tangible like land
2:04:35
Speaker 1: or resources. We're really fighting for our values, particularly with
2:04:38
Speaker 1: World War Two. The further that gets away, the more
2:04:43
Speaker 1: the more detached we get from it. And I think
2:04:46
Speaker 1: actually the less likely we'll see we'll see some of
2:04:49
Speaker 1: those bonds, you know, you see it now, right, Once
2:04:52
Speaker 1: you get to third or fourth generation away from something
2:04:56
Speaker 1: you know, you lose the bond to that, and you
2:04:59
Speaker 1: sort of your identity becomes more formed by the president
2:05:03
Speaker 1: or by the very very recent pass And I wish
2:05:08
Speaker 1: I could felt like I fear I'm not giving you
2:05:12
Speaker 1: the intellectually the substance of an argument that you may
2:05:20
Speaker 1: been looking for to give you a deeper answer in that.
2:05:25
Speaker 1: But that's I hope you see where I was going there.
2:05:28
Speaker 1: I appreciate the question right now. Next question comes from Brad.
2:05:31
Speaker 1: He said this after afterr died, Congress took action to
2:05:33
Speaker 1: limit future presidents to do terms. Do you think that
2:05:36
Speaker 1: after the Trump era, Congress may limit the part in
2:05:37
Speaker 1: power presidents since it was abused by Biden and Trump?
2:05:40
Speaker 1: And if so, what should the limits be specifically? Also,
2:05:42
Speaker 1: what was the reason the founders allowed presidents to partner
2:05:44
Speaker 1: anyone without any checks? Did they not think it would
2:05:47
Speaker 1: ever be abused like this? Brad Well Brad I asked
2:05:51
Speaker 1: this question in a podcast interview I did with a
2:05:54
Speaker 1: historian for the woman who runs the George Washington Presidential Library.
2:06:00
Speaker 1: She's a founding Father's historian written a bunch of books, terrific,
2:06:04
Speaker 1: terrific historian Lindsay Schervinsky, Doctor Lindsay Shervinsky, and I asked
2:06:07
Speaker 1: her this very question. I said, I said, you know,
2:06:10
Speaker 1: the putting the pardon power in to the executive in
2:06:14
Speaker 1: the Constitution. How did a whole group of men who
2:06:18
Speaker 1: were essentially trying to resist a monarchy allow a power
2:06:25
Speaker 1: that a monarch had to be given to the executive,
2:06:28
Speaker 1: which the whole point was not to allow him to
2:06:30
Speaker 1: become a king, But she gave him one king like power.
2:06:33
Speaker 1: And she didn't have a good explanation other than you
2:06:36
Speaker 1: know her, she joked, there's probably somebody at the Constitutional
2:06:39
Speaker 1: Convention that wanted to pardon and wanted to make sure
2:06:43
Speaker 1: that that possibility existed. I completely agree with you, Rad.
2:06:49
Speaker 1: I think that Allah. I think the FDR president is
2:06:53
Speaker 1: the perfect precedent, right, just like the Kennedy assassination gave
2:06:58
Speaker 1: us the twenty fifth Amendment. We're like, WHOA, what would
2:07:01
Speaker 1: have happened if he had survived but not been but
2:07:06
Speaker 1: not but had been incapacitated? And so look, there's nothing
2:07:11
Speaker 1: wrong with our constitution being reactive to the moment. It's like, frankly,
2:07:16
Speaker 1: it's like how the college football playoff. Oh, maybe we
2:07:19
Speaker 1: should have a different scenario in how we decide tiebreakers
2:07:23
Speaker 1: at the ACC. Right, you know, you sometimes have to
2:07:25
Speaker 1: see something happen to go, oh, we missed that loophole.
2:07:30
Speaker 1: Let's close that loophole. So you had the two term
2:07:35
Speaker 1: issue with FDR, you had the incapacitation issue after the
2:07:39
Speaker 1: Kennedy assassination that gave us twenty fifth Amendment, And I
2:07:42
Speaker 1: absolutely believe we'll have something here. Look, I think a
2:07:46
Speaker 1: lot of states have pardon boards where there is where
2:07:52
Speaker 1: you know, where the governor has is sort of has
2:07:56
Speaker 1: has influenced, but he's just a vote, He's not the vote.
2:08:01
Speaker 1: I think you could argue that you could create a
2:08:03
Speaker 1: presidential pardon board made up of you know, the chief
2:08:07
Speaker 1: Justice of the Supreme Court, you know, you know, and
2:08:10
Speaker 1: the two most senior justices including you know, not including
2:08:14
Speaker 1: the Chief Justice, maybe the the chairman of the Senate
2:08:20
Speaker 1: Judiciary Committee and the House Judiciary committees chairmen and ranking members.
2:08:24
Speaker 1: You know, you just create an eight eight person pardon board,
2:08:27
Speaker 1: six person pardon board of some sort and not have
2:08:32
Speaker 1: one person be able to do these things. There's no
2:08:38
Speaker 1: doubt this has been among and I think it's certainly
2:08:45
Speaker 1: it's just been abused egregiously by Trump. Right, there's no
2:08:49
Speaker 1: and I think and I think you're right. It is
2:08:52
Speaker 1: easy to both sides this and to me a good
2:08:55
Speaker 1: way in order to try to get bipartisan support for
2:08:59
Speaker 1: you simply, let's just not let another president have this
2:09:02
Speaker 1: type of you know, the bottom line is norms or nothing. Right.
2:09:06
Speaker 1: It's just like we've had norms with this naming business,
2:09:09
Speaker 1: right Trump putting his name on Kennedy Center. It turns
2:09:11
Speaker 1: out there's no law. Right, there's just been norms. Right.
2:09:15
Speaker 1: We you know, we we kind of thought as a society. Boy,
2:09:17
Speaker 1: it's unseemly to elect current elected officials have stuff named
2:09:21
Speaker 1: after him. By the way, the state of Florida actually
2:09:24
Speaker 1: doesn't allow living doesn't allow anything in the state to
2:09:28
Speaker 1: be named after a living person. But if a local
2:09:32
Speaker 1: locality wants to do it, or if a university wants
2:09:35
Speaker 1: to do it, there are some exceptions, but that's it's
2:09:39
Speaker 1: in the state of Florida, and it all depends on
2:09:41
Speaker 1: how much influence the state has. So, for instance, there's
2:09:43
Speaker 1: some movement to rename the Palm Beach Airport after Donald Trump.
2:09:48
Speaker 1: I got to think, look, if if you've got to
2:09:51
Speaker 1: name something after him, sure make it the Palm Beach Airport.
2:09:54
Speaker 1: Make him the you know, in some ways he is
2:09:57
Speaker 1: emblematic of that Palm Beach crowd, the good and the bad,
2:10:01
Speaker 1: the ugly, all of it together. I actually find it
2:10:05
Speaker 1: kind of appropriate if that were the airport that was
2:10:07
Speaker 1: named after him. Right, he doesn't belong on Miami's airport.
2:10:10
Speaker 1: He has no association with Miami whatsoever in my opinion.
2:10:13
Speaker 1: But Palm Beach. Sure, He's always wanted to be the
2:10:15
Speaker 1: king of Palm Beach after since he couldn't be the
2:10:17
Speaker 1: king of Manhattan. So absolutely right, it's one of those
2:10:23
Speaker 1: in a weird way, it's perfectly fitting. But it turns
2:10:27
Speaker 1: out those were all norms, right, and there's really it's
2:10:31
Speaker 1: really hard, you know. Yes, Congress is the only one
2:10:33
Speaker 1: that can officially name the Kennedy Center. Congress is the
2:10:35
Speaker 1: only one that could officially decide what these names are.
2:10:39
Speaker 1: But you know, this is Trump sort of pushing, basically
2:10:42
Speaker 1: daring Congress to use its authority if it wants to,
2:10:47
Speaker 1: and things like this. But the bottom line is, I
2:10:52
Speaker 1: think if the trump eras taught us anything that if
2:10:54
Speaker 1: there's a norm that we think there's eighty percent agreement
2:10:57
Speaker 1: on make it the letter of the law, either make
2:11:00
Speaker 1: it a constitutional amendment, or just simply pass along converse.
2:11:03
Speaker 1: But you can't just assume anything anymore because of the
2:11:08
Speaker 1: temptation to exploit and the fact that we have an
2:11:12
Speaker 1: American public that will not punish shamelessness the way I
2:11:16
Speaker 1: think we all thought, right, the greatest power Donald Trump
2:11:20
Speaker 1: has is his power not to feel shame, which is
2:11:26
Speaker 1: why we have to have certain laws on the books
2:11:28
Speaker 1: and certain amendments in our constitution. All right, Next question
2:11:33
Speaker 1: comes from It's a simple one, Christopher to Carla Long Island,
2:11:37
Speaker 1: New York. What do you think the GOP looks like
2:11:39
Speaker 1: if it loses in twenty twenty eight. I think it's
2:11:43
Speaker 1: going to be a little bit like the Democrats Serica
2:11:49
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety. I think you will have a huge fight
2:11:53
Speaker 1: between multiple wings. You will have the sort of more
2:11:58
Speaker 1: call it the traditional wing of the party, but you
2:12:01
Speaker 1: will have sort of I think you will have a
2:12:04
Speaker 1: more open warfare between sort of the what will feel
2:12:09
Speaker 1: like the aging mega populists. What is the the financial
2:12:16
Speaker 1: and business wing of the party, what I refer to
2:12:19
Speaker 1: sometimes as the Chamber of commerce wing. I think a
2:12:22
Speaker 1: loss by Vance or somebody else sufficiently considered Maga will
2:12:29
Speaker 1: embolden I think the business wing of the party to
2:12:32
Speaker 1: try to to try to reclaim some status, and you
2:12:36
Speaker 1: might see, you might even you might see a resurgent
2:12:44
Speaker 1: sort of libertarian wing. Right. I'm curious to see Rand
2:12:48
Speaker 1: Paul's presidential campaign and how much traction it can get,
2:12:52
Speaker 1: how big is that faction inside the Republican Party, and
2:12:55
Speaker 1: could he tear pieces of the quote mega coalition away
2:12:59
Speaker 1: into some that's that So, you know, it may look
2:13:05
Speaker 1: a little bit like Democrats, and ninety may also look
2:13:08
Speaker 1: a little bit like what happened to Democrats after sixty eight, right,
2:13:13
Speaker 1: and when in Vietnam and it was you know, you
2:13:15
Speaker 1: had this, you know, suddenly the governance up, the nominee
2:13:18
Speaker 1: and you had sort of the southern conservative Democrats starting
2:13:23
Speaker 1: to totally splinter away. So I think it's a combination
2:13:30
Speaker 1: of sort of the chaos that the Democrats had going
2:13:36
Speaker 1: into the seventy two presidential campaign, so from seventy to
2:13:39
Speaker 1: seventy two, and the chaos the Democrats had after the
2:13:45
Speaker 1: eighty eight Ducaccus debacle in sort of nine that was
2:13:49
Speaker 1: represented by sort of the fight between Bill proxy arguments
2:13:52
Speaker 1: and fights between Bill Clinton and Jesse Jackson, something akin
2:13:57
Speaker 1: to that. I think it will look less like the
2:14:03
Speaker 1: fight in fifty two between sort of the Eisenhower wing
2:14:09
Speaker 1: and the Taft wing of the party. I think. I
2:14:11
Speaker 1: think in some ways that was the previous debate that
2:14:16
Speaker 1: in this time the Taft wing won the fight, which
2:14:18
Speaker 1: got represented by Trump. I think this one it will
2:14:22
Speaker 1: be a fight to even just what is conservative right.
2:14:24
Speaker 1: It'll be a I hope it's an I hope it's
2:14:27
Speaker 1: an intellectual debate rather than a personality or influencer debate.
2:14:32
Speaker 1: I think it could be. I think, what kind of
2:14:35
Speaker 1: debate does it end up being? Right? Is it one
2:14:38
Speaker 1: defined by cult of personality or one defined by actual
2:14:42
Speaker 1: ideological disagreement? And that that, to me is what I
2:14:48
Speaker 1: wouldn't I don't. That's an unknown here, and until we
2:14:52
Speaker 1: knew that part of it, that will shape what the
2:14:55
Speaker 1: debate itself looks like. All right? Last question comes from
2:14:57
Speaker 1: David S. Fort Worth, Texas. Hey, Chuck, big fan of
2:15:00
Speaker 1: the podcast. I was surprised and delighted to discover your
2:15:03
Speaker 1: Meet the Press era tops trading cards while searching for merch. Oh, yes,
2:15:07
Speaker 1: Alan and Ginter twenty fourteen. My friend anyway, he goes,
2:15:11
Speaker 1: I picked up a Chuck Todd relic card on eBay.
2:15:13
Speaker 1: That's cool, I thought, my I have a friend from
2:15:15
Speaker 1: high school who swore he spot all of them that
2:15:17
Speaker 1: almost put together. I gave him a tie tops, a
2:15:22
Speaker 1: tie to cut up. And so there's a couple of
2:15:25
Speaker 1: like very rare items. You can get a relic of
2:15:28
Speaker 1: my a red tie. So don't trust me. I did
2:15:32
Speaker 1: you know there's nothing lamer than getting a relic card
2:15:34
Speaker 1: that's just like a piece of white or gray jersey.
2:15:37
Speaker 1: I made sure to give a red tie from my
2:15:39
Speaker 1: relic card. And then there's some you know, number to ten.
2:15:43
Speaker 1: I think autograph cards still that are out there. They
2:15:47
Speaker 1: can get a little premium on that. Anyway, He says
2:15:50
Speaker 1: this as a fellow sports card collector, I'd love to
2:15:52
Speaker 1: hear about your experience working with tops. Also curious how
2:15:54
Speaker 1: you see the hobby today. Does it still feel like
2:15:55
Speaker 1: collecting or has it crossed into unregulated gambling? Man, we're
2:16:00
Speaker 1: we're gamifying. We're gamblifying everything. Aren't we were gamblifying politics
2:16:03
Speaker 1: or gambling. We're taking sports to a whole new level. Yes,
2:16:08
Speaker 1: there's some. In fact, I fully, I fully confess to
2:16:15
Speaker 1: viewing some of my sports card speculating. I don't call
2:16:19
Speaker 1: this part collecting. I collect but then I have a
2:16:23
Speaker 1: fun time speculating. But I view it as instead of
2:16:26
Speaker 1: buying a long term future. I'll give you an example,
2:16:32
Speaker 1: instead of buying a long term future at the beginning
2:16:35
Speaker 1: of the season on the Denver Broncos winning the Super Bowl,
2:16:38
Speaker 1: where if they don't win the Super Bowl, your ticket
2:16:40
Speaker 1: is worthless. You instead buy bonus, you know, a high
2:16:45
Speaker 1: end Bonix rookie card, because your ticket won't be worth
2:16:50
Speaker 1: zero if they fail. But you can also you will
2:16:53
Speaker 1: benefit if they actually do go on that Super Bowl
2:16:55
Speaker 1: run and you have an opportunity to cash out multiple
2:16:58
Speaker 1: times before. So I confess that I have I have
2:17:04
Speaker 1: taken one part of my sports card fandom because I
2:17:09
Speaker 1: look at it this way. I'm trying to minimize how
2:17:12
Speaker 1: much money I spend on my sports card collecting, and
2:17:15
Speaker 1: I use I basically side hustle my way to try
2:17:19
Speaker 1: to cut the costs of what this is. So I
2:17:24
Speaker 1: do submit cards for grading and sell them on the side.
2:17:27
Speaker 1: And you can you know, I'm not going to tell
2:17:29
Speaker 1: you I don't. I really have been careful. I don't
2:17:31
Speaker 1: want to combine my side hustle on sports cards with
2:17:35
Speaker 1: the podcast. I just haven't done that. As for Tops, look,
2:17:39
Speaker 1: I I'll tell you my experience. All of everything you've
2:17:44
Speaker 1: ever read on the back of a card is true.
2:17:46
Speaker 1: A Tops representative, I remember that came to Rockefeller Center,
2:17:51
Speaker 1: New York. That was in New York day. They brought
2:17:53
Speaker 1: all the cards. They stayed in my office while I
2:17:56
Speaker 1: signed every card I promised to sign, did all that.
2:18:01
Speaker 1: They witnessed the whole time. Then he takes it, he
2:18:03
Speaker 1: puts it, and he takes it away. It wasn't like
2:18:05
Speaker 1: he left it with me, wasn't shipped and said, hey,
2:18:08
Speaker 1: can you sign this and send it back. He really
2:18:11
Speaker 1: did witness me doing everything on that front. So I
2:18:15
Speaker 1: viewed it as a great experience. Look, I'm a I'm
2:18:18
Speaker 1: an institutionalist with some means. I love me some Tops,
2:18:23
Speaker 1: and you know Tops is a reliable brand. I've I'm always, though,
2:18:30
Speaker 1: worried about market consolidation because market consolidation usually panealizes people
2:18:36
Speaker 1: like you and me, right, and everything has gotten more
2:18:40
Speaker 1: expensive since things have gotten consolidated. I do think the
2:18:47
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that if there ever is I
2:18:52
Speaker 1: think that Fanatics, who is now the parent company of
2:18:56
Speaker 1: tops Is, is going to get scrutiny at some point
2:19:02
Speaker 1: from a more robust government agency. They're not nobody's getting
2:19:07
Speaker 1: that kind of scrutiny now because it's pay to play.
2:19:10
Speaker 1: Were living in a pay to play. But if we
2:19:11
Speaker 1: ever get back to a more traditional way of trying
2:19:16
Speaker 1: to question consolidated power, trying to regulate these things, I
2:19:21
Speaker 1: think Fanatics could could you know whether they you know
2:19:26
Speaker 1: the fact that they have the exclusive license and only
2:19:29
Speaker 1: they can produce these products, so they can set the market.
2:19:36
Speaker 1: They can, they can sort of really they they they
2:19:39
Speaker 1: decide supply and demand, right I have it doesn't feel
2:19:44
Speaker 1: like it does feel like they're building a monopoly. And
2:19:48
Speaker 1: I'll I think Pannini hasn't been very good at articulating
2:19:53
Speaker 1: its case or taking its They've yet to find they've
2:19:58
Speaker 1: how they've gone about it. I think it's been very poor.
2:20:01
Speaker 1: But at some point I think you'll have some better
2:20:04
Speaker 1: loaurying there and you'll get a judge that's a bit
2:20:08
Speaker 1: more empathetic and a little skeptical of the consolidation that
2:20:11
Speaker 1: Fanatics has successfully pulled off here in the sports card market,
2:20:16
Speaker 1: especially as there's more money involved, right, I say that,
2:20:21
Speaker 1: I'm I like that Fanatics has taken sports card collecting
2:20:26
Speaker 1: and made it more mainstream. Right, So that's a good
2:20:28
Speaker 1: thing that they have done with the hobby that they
2:20:30
Speaker 1: have made it. They have sort of cleaned things up
2:20:33
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think quality control has gotten better,
2:20:39
Speaker 1: But there is a it does feel like there's a
2:20:45
Speaker 1: haves and have not aspect to card collecting. Now, if
2:20:49
Speaker 1: you've got some money, you can get access to really
2:20:51
Speaker 1: cool cards. If you don't have a lot of money,
2:20:53
Speaker 1: you can't. You know that In the way I grew
2:20:56
Speaker 1: up with them, right, we all sort of had the
2:20:57
Speaker 1: same access certainly. You know, maybe one family could afford
2:21:02
Speaker 1: to buy more packs of cards, but we were all
2:21:04
Speaker 1: buying the same packs of cards. But literally, there are
2:21:07
Speaker 1: now packs of cards simply for the super wealthy, and
2:21:10
Speaker 1: then there are packs of cards for everybody else. You know.
2:21:14
Speaker 1: Right now we call them plaster boxes, and then you
2:21:17
Speaker 1: have hobby boxes and stuff like that. But it's it's
2:21:21
Speaker 1: that is a you know, is there is there a
2:21:26
Speaker 1: point where there's too many velvet ropes around card collecting,
2:21:31
Speaker 1: you know, and that's I think there's there's still got
2:21:34
Speaker 1: to be a lottery ticket aspect to it. You know,
2:21:37
Speaker 1: there's and you've probably seen the news of an A
2:21:39
Speaker 1: Tani card that got sold for a certain amount of money,
2:21:43
Speaker 1: but just it took a lot of money to have
2:21:46
Speaker 1: even access to getting that card. And uh, I'm not
2:21:53
Speaker 1: as anti breaking as some are. I don't participate in
2:21:57
Speaker 1: breaks or anything like that. That's how I want to
2:22:00
Speaker 1: spend my time. And if you're wondering what the hell
2:22:03
Speaker 1: breaking is, go look it up. I'm not gonna But essentially,
2:22:07
Speaker 1: it's instead of it's another way of you know, it's
2:22:11
Speaker 1: sort of another That's the way the influencer world works.
2:22:14
Speaker 1: Like buy a case of cards and say, hey, I
2:22:18
Speaker 1: will I will give you all the Dodgers in this case,
2:22:21
Speaker 1: and I'm going to sell the Dodgers for you know,
2:22:24
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars and you may get that'll
2:22:27
Speaker 1: be awesome. I'll also give you all the White Sox
2:22:29
Speaker 1: cards in this case. You may sell that for sixty
2:22:31
Speaker 1: dollars and you'll get all the White Socks. You may
2:22:35
Speaker 1: get a lot of Frank Thomas autographs, and you may
2:22:37
Speaker 1: get a lot of show Hey O Tommy right, or
2:22:40
Speaker 1: but if but if show Tony's in an Angel's uniform,
2:22:43
Speaker 1: the person who bought the Angels slot will get the card,
2:22:47
Speaker 1: not the person who bought the Dodger slot. So it's
2:22:50
Speaker 1: an interesting way to sell. I think that's you know.
2:22:52
Speaker 1: To me, that's just you know, interesting retail capitalism and
2:22:56
Speaker 1: the market behaving the way a market should, coming up
2:22:59
Speaker 1: with unique ways to slice and dice the cards. So
2:23:03
Speaker 1: I'm not as anti gambling as others are. I do
2:23:05
Speaker 1: think it's very It adds to the speculation. It is,
2:23:09
Speaker 1: in theory, a cheaper way to get a bigger card.
2:23:13
Speaker 1: But you your odds are still pretty the odds are
2:23:18
Speaker 1: still not very much in your favor, and in some
2:23:21
Speaker 1: cases could be even worse. So because you don't you
2:23:24
Speaker 1: don't get you're better off buying the whole case yourself,
2:23:26
Speaker 1: because even if it's a card for a team you
2:23:28
Speaker 1: didn't like, at least do you have a chance to
2:23:31
Speaker 1: get your money back selling it's somebody else and they
2:23:33
Speaker 1: want it. I got a little rambling there, because I
2:23:36
Speaker 1: do enjoy it, I do care about it. I do
2:23:41
Speaker 1: a little bit of it as a side hustle, but
2:23:44
Speaker 1: primarily just to support my collecting, and I have some
2:23:48
Speaker 1: fun things that I love collect. I collect certain players,
2:23:52
Speaker 1: or collect a lot of maxtures, or collect each hero.
2:23:56
Speaker 1: I collect Greg Maddox, and I collect Sandykofax and Roy Campano.
2:24:04
Speaker 1: But then I love like Super Old Basketball. You know,
2:24:08
Speaker 1: I'm always I'm always on the hunt for interesting George
2:24:11
Speaker 1: Mike and cards. You know, I just sort of like,
2:24:13
Speaker 1: you know, little little nuggets like that. One of my
2:24:16
Speaker 1: favorite sets that I built was the nineteen fifty five
2:24:19
Speaker 1: College Football card set All American Set. Wizard White is
2:24:24
Speaker 1: in that set, former Supreme Court justice. So anyway, as
2:24:28
Speaker 1: you he just he just touched the nerd button on
2:24:32
Speaker 1: me obviously, So yes, I've just given you a little
2:24:36
Speaker 1: bit more. But please, I do not I do not
2:24:41
Speaker 1: want to mix too much of the card world into
2:24:43
Speaker 1: the political world, because I I don't like it anytime
2:24:46
Speaker 1: I've heard, you know, for the most part, any most
2:24:49
Speaker 1: of the stuff I consume in the card world, by
2:24:51
Speaker 1: the way, I collect every I try to get PSA
2:24:54
Speaker 1: tens of every president that has appeared in a sports
2:24:58
Speaker 1: card set. And that's a lot of fun as well.
2:25:04
Speaker 1: So you know, that's my you know figure that you know,
2:25:07
Speaker 1: that's appropriate for me, the political junkie, to have that.
2:25:10
Speaker 1: So you know, there was, believe it or not, a
2:25:12
Speaker 1: lot of older sets in the early twentieth century that
2:25:15
Speaker 1: had some that didn't hold presidential presidential cards. In fact,
2:25:20
Speaker 1: one of my favorite recent sets that I wish top
2:25:22
Speaker 1: Tops would bring back was the two thousand and nine
2:25:23
Speaker 1: American History set, which did things like have subsets of
2:25:28
Speaker 1: Medal of Honor folks. So it was like a history like,
2:25:30
Speaker 1: we're just great history on it. So I collected it,
2:25:33
Speaker 1: built the set with my kids as a way to
2:25:35
Speaker 1: teach American history. It was. It was. It was fabulous,
2:25:39
Speaker 1: and I wish Tops would bring you back, all right,
2:25:50
Speaker 1: since we got the sports cards, it's a perfect transition
2:25:52
Speaker 1: to get to college football and my experience at Kyle Field.
2:25:59
Speaker 1: I will start very I will start with this. It's
2:26:05
Speaker 1: my fourth Miami road game in a stadium that seats
2:26:11
Speaker 1: more than one hundred thousand people. I was at Penn
2:26:13
Speaker 1: State in two thousand and one for a Miami Penn
2:26:16
Speaker 1: State game. Miami won that game. I was in Tennessee
2:26:19
Speaker 1: two thousand and three, I think it was for a
2:26:21
Speaker 1: Miami Tennessee game. Miami one. I've been to the Rose Bowl.
2:26:24
Speaker 1: I believe they seed one hundred thousand so and that
2:26:27
Speaker 1: was for the lone Rose Bowl that Miami appeared in
2:26:30
Speaker 1: and they won. So I think I have that going
2:26:34
Speaker 1: for me, which is I've never seen Miami lose win
2:26:37
Speaker 1: in a hundred thousand seed stadium. They've lost a one
2:26:39
Speaker 1: hundred thousand seat staums, but not when I've been in attendance.
2:26:42
Speaker 1: They lost a game at Michigan once and I think
2:26:44
Speaker 1: they lost a game at Ohio State once, so both
2:26:47
Speaker 1: of which of course seed over one hundred thousand. And
2:26:50
Speaker 1: one thing you will learn is it wasn't bad getting
2:26:54
Speaker 1: into a stadium that seats one hundred thousand. Boy, when
2:26:56
Speaker 1: everybody stays to the end, it is really hard to
2:26:59
Speaker 1: get out of a state that time town. That was
2:27:03
Speaker 1: quite the ordeal and all that text. A and M
2:27:06
Speaker 1: fans were great. You know, I have a lot of
2:27:09
Speaker 1: UT fans in my life who don't have many nice
2:27:11
Speaker 1: things to say about the Aggies, So I had I
2:27:14
Speaker 1: perhaps came in with super low expectations and a little leariness.
2:27:19
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I did. I thought everything was great, even
2:27:21
Speaker 1: in losing. I have this memory of this one A
2:27:24
Speaker 1: and M fan cowboy hat he looks at me and
2:27:26
Speaker 1: he just opens his arms. He says, can you give
2:27:28
Speaker 1: me a hug? I was like, okay. He had a
2:27:31
Speaker 1: few His family, I think was wondering what's he about
2:27:34
Speaker 1: to do? But it was It was actually a very
2:27:38
Speaker 1: nice interaction. All of it was very nice interactions. Look,
2:27:42
Speaker 1: let's talk about the game itself. If you weren't at
2:27:47
Speaker 1: the game, you probably and you're only watching in TV,
2:27:49
Speaker 1: you thought, boy, these offenses are futrid? What's going on here?
2:27:52
Speaker 1: The wind was a serious factor. In fact, every time
2:27:57
Speaker 1: there was a time out, Carson Beck was throwing was
2:28:01
Speaker 1: throwing the football. So either one of two things. Either
2:28:04
Speaker 1: he had something going on with his arm that he
2:28:06
Speaker 1: was trying to deal with, which I don't think it was,
2:28:09
Speaker 1: or he was trying to figure out how to throw
2:28:12
Speaker 1: better in this swirling wind. He was constantly trying to
2:28:16
Speaker 1: warm up, and I mean every time out he'd be
2:28:19
Speaker 1: out in the field trying to do this. I saw
2:28:21
Speaker 1: a similar situation with all of the Texas A and
2:28:25
Speaker 1: M side. They were doing their long snaps a lot
2:28:27
Speaker 1: more practicing sort of in between during timeouts, during work stoppages.
2:28:32
Speaker 1: This wasn't just stuff you saw pre or just on
2:28:36
Speaker 1: the sideline. They'd literally move out into the field when
2:28:38
Speaker 1: they had it. This would be during the commercial break.
2:28:40
Speaker 1: So the wind was really throwing everybody off, and I
2:28:44
Speaker 1: think it really threw Back off. I don't think he
2:28:46
Speaker 1: ever felt comfortable throwing the football at all. I think
2:28:49
Speaker 1: it showed, you know, is it an arm strength issue?
2:28:54
Speaker 1: Was it just the wind? Was that swirly that day?
2:28:58
Speaker 1: It was a real factor, and it absolutely contributed to
2:29:01
Speaker 1: the bizarre kicking game problems, which Miny really didn't have
2:29:04
Speaker 1: an issue with all your I know, TEXTA, A and
2:29:06
Speaker 1: M had their share, not a few other observations. Very frustrated,
2:29:12
Speaker 1: as always with the play calling. I will say this
2:29:17
Speaker 1: and look a win. I am grateful and satisfied that
2:29:20
Speaker 1: Miami god this win. But this is one of those
2:29:23
Speaker 1: games where and I'm sure Texas A and M fans
2:29:25
Speaker 1: look at that game and go, we had so many
2:29:26
Speaker 1: chances to win that game. That's true. And a Miami
2:29:28
Speaker 1: fan looks at that game and go, we had so
2:29:30
Speaker 1: many chances to have blown them out, which is also true.
2:29:35
Speaker 1: It was a game where nobody took advantage of the
2:29:38
Speaker 1: mistakes the other team was making or not nearly enough,
2:29:42
Speaker 1: and then there was a few sort of questionable decision
2:29:45
Speaker 1: making the fake punt to me was a questionable decision
2:29:49
Speaker 1: by Elko at the time, especially in that way. Your
2:29:54
Speaker 1: own quarterbacks having a hard time throwing the ball in
2:29:56
Speaker 1: the wind, so now you expect your punter to be
2:29:58
Speaker 1: able to throw in the in the crazy swirling win
2:30:02
Speaker 1: seemed like a you you know. And look to Miami's
2:30:06
Speaker 1: credit and kudos to the special teams coaching. They were
2:30:10
Speaker 1: they were ready, and everybody stayed at home, and they
2:30:14
Speaker 1: were able to make sure that that didn't pay off.
2:30:16
Speaker 1: But I think that was a questionable decision. It sort
2:30:18
Speaker 1: of gave Miami a break at a time when when
2:30:22
Speaker 1: they could use one. I didn't want Tom having to
2:30:24
Speaker 1: start start start their drive inside their twenty again. But
2:30:30
Speaker 1: my issue with the play calling is saying it's my
2:30:33
Speaker 1: observation about all year. I feel like the offensive coordinator
2:30:38
Speaker 1: is always trying to figure out like which plays work
2:30:43
Speaker 1: with his offense rather than game planning towards the team
2:30:46
Speaker 1: he's playing. And it isn't till sometime in the second
2:30:50
Speaker 1: half that he finally pivots the play calling to what's
2:30:54
Speaker 1: actually happening on the field and with the opponent were
2:30:58
Speaker 1: actually facing the fact that Mark Fletcher, who had a
2:31:02
Speaker 1: tremendous game the running back, the best most yard each
2:31:07
Speaker 1: he had ever had as a as a Miami running back,
2:31:10
Speaker 1: didn't touch the ball once. When Miami had a first
2:31:13
Speaker 1: and goal at the ten early on in the game.
2:31:15
Speaker 1: It was one of those drives with the ended up
2:31:17
Speaker 1: with a missfield goal every time until the fourth quarter,
2:31:22
Speaker 1: every time Mark Fletcher got a run that succeeded say
2:31:27
Speaker 1: six yards or more, it seemed like they waited three
2:31:30
Speaker 1: or four plays before they ever went back to it.
2:31:33
Speaker 1: Finally in the fourth core they realized, well, what's working
2:31:36
Speaker 1: this A and M defense? As their pass rush was
2:31:40
Speaker 1: getting through and was making back uncomfortable. And I think
2:31:43
Speaker 1: it was the wind that made the pass rush more
2:31:46
Speaker 1: effective than anything else. But we could run on these
2:31:49
Speaker 1: guys and yet you know, they were just they kept
2:31:53
Speaker 1: so it felt as if it was almost like he was, Hey,
2:31:56
Speaker 1: let me see if this play how this play? You know,
2:31:58
Speaker 1: And there's sort of these their trick plays, but they're
2:32:02
Speaker 1: kind of high schoolish, one dimensional trick plays. Oh, let's
2:32:06
Speaker 1: line up Tony in the wildcat, let's do this, let's
2:32:09
Speaker 1: you know it. They're weirdly predictable, and it was almost
2:32:14
Speaker 1: as all right, I'm going to try to get the
2:32:16
Speaker 1: ball into Tony's hands without actually thinking about the defense
2:32:20
Speaker 1: that they're facing. By the fourth quarter, they realized, well,
2:32:24
Speaker 1: when they really have to get some yards, they should
2:32:26
Speaker 1: just run the ball, and suddenly Fletcher and they pounded
2:32:29
Speaker 1: the rock. For us older Miami fans, it reminded me
2:32:33
Speaker 1: of one of the worst play calling decisions ever, which
2:32:37
Speaker 1: was infamous, an infamous game back in the eighties between
2:32:40
Speaker 1: Miami and Penn State, one of the best Miami teams
2:32:42
Speaker 1: of all time, and they didn't win a national title.
2:32:45
Speaker 1: They lost. They lost to Joe Paterno's Penn State squad
2:32:49
Speaker 1: in the in the eighty six season eighty seven Fiesta Bowl,
2:32:53
Speaker 1: where they had first They were inside the ten, basically
2:32:57
Speaker 1: going in for the winning touchdown, and they decided to
2:32:59
Speaker 1: throw the ball, not hand the ball to Lonzo Heismith,
2:33:02
Speaker 1: who was just not going to be denied that day.
2:33:04
Speaker 1: And that's how I felt about Mark Fletcher. You're like,
2:33:06
Speaker 1: this dude has a nose for the end zone. He
2:33:08
Speaker 1: always runs north south. He is not going to get denied.
2:33:11
Speaker 1: Some guys just have it. You feed the ball. You
2:33:15
Speaker 1: give him the ball and you go and you wear
2:33:18
Speaker 1: that out, then you worry about other things. So I
2:33:22
Speaker 1: just I don't love the way this goes about. He doesn't.
2:33:27
Speaker 1: I don't feel like it's a game plan. I feel
2:33:29
Speaker 1: like it's a set of offensive schemes that he's doing
2:33:34
Speaker 1: on a whiteboard that he's not thinking about the opponent
2:33:37
Speaker 1: that they're facing. I gotta think that's going to change
2:33:40
Speaker 1: for Ohio State. But we'll say. The other thing I
2:33:45
Speaker 1: take away is I think Miami's defense I think it's absurd.
2:33:48
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes perception in college football, perception is always
2:33:53
Speaker 1: way ahead of the reality. And I think right now,
2:33:56
Speaker 1: I see it in the early lines of Miami oha State.
2:33:59
Speaker 1: Or it's a nine and a half point favorite. Please,
2:34:02
Speaker 1: that's great. Look, I know I'm a homer, but that's insane. Okay,
2:34:06
Speaker 1: no Miami team I'm trying to think. I don't think
2:34:09
Speaker 1: Miami's lost by more than nine points in over two years.
2:34:14
Speaker 1: It's just I will especially the way Mario Christopal coaches.
2:34:19
Speaker 1: He's a very risk averse coach. It drives me crazy,
2:34:22
Speaker 1: but it keeps him in every game. This guy is
2:34:24
Speaker 1: not going to not be in this game. He is
2:34:28
Speaker 1: not going to let the team sort of be put
2:34:32
Speaker 1: in a position like that. And Ohio State, isn't it I,
2:34:36
Speaker 1: you know, against the Miami defense, I just don't see it.
2:34:38
Speaker 1: And this is where it's a reminder that the reason
2:34:43
Speaker 1: that the expression defense wins championships is that, you know,
2:34:47
Speaker 1: Miami had a very uneven orderline, bad offensive day, and
2:34:50
Speaker 1: we're able to win because the defense was able to
2:34:53
Speaker 1: prevent the other offense from doing anything. If you have
2:34:55
Speaker 1: a bad day on offense and your defense's mediocre, you've
2:34:58
Speaker 1: had the situation that Miami had to do with last year,
2:35:00
Speaker 1: when we had this great offense that would have a
2:35:03
Speaker 1: couple of clunker quarters that suddenly the defense would allow
2:35:06
Speaker 1: up twenty one points to the other side, and then
2:35:08
Speaker 1: suddenly you were in a hole. You dug yourself a
2:35:10
Speaker 1: hole or something. So I know we won, and we're
2:35:14
Speaker 1: not supposed to pick at nits, but it's a big
2:35:17
Speaker 1: one to pick because Miami's not going to win another
2:35:20
Speaker 1: game if they don't perform slightly better on offense. They
2:35:23
Speaker 1: have all the talent in the world. I just think
2:35:25
Speaker 1: this offensive scheme just doesn't take advantage of the talent
2:35:29
Speaker 1: that they have. It's like wide receiver, screen, wide receiver screen,
2:35:34
Speaker 1: Malachai Tony trick play, throw the ball deep. They don't
2:35:37
Speaker 1: use the middle of the field enough. I'd like to
2:35:39
Speaker 1: see more of it. And I'll say something I've said
2:35:43
Speaker 1: in earlier roundups about this Miami team. The coaches seem
2:35:48
Speaker 1: to always be worried about putting too much in Carson
2:35:52
Speaker 1: Beck's hands. What are you waiting for? It's do or die.
2:35:58
Speaker 1: It's ride or die with him. Unlet's ride or die.
2:36:02
Speaker 1: Open it up a little bit. You have the talent,
2:36:05
Speaker 1: open up the middle of the field a little bit.
2:36:10
Speaker 1: It's it's if you're you're not going to win more
2:36:14
Speaker 1: big games if you don't trust your quarterback. And I
2:36:18
Speaker 1: do get the sense that this coaching staff doesn't quite
2:36:23
Speaker 1: trust him completely. And and you can say he's not
2:36:29
Speaker 1: earned the trust. Well, at this point it doesn't matter.
2:36:33
Speaker 1: But look, I had said before my expectation was we
2:36:36
Speaker 1: were going to win this game. I look at it now,
2:36:38
Speaker 1: I think we should have won by more. I don't
2:36:40
Speaker 1: think this means that techs A and M you know,
2:36:43
Speaker 1: didn't belong there. And by the way, I love these
2:36:45
Speaker 1: notre dame fans that look at the Miami texsaing game.
2:36:47
Speaker 1: They were better than both teams. You lost to both
2:36:49
Speaker 1: teams like that, they, you know, be mad about the
2:36:52
Speaker 1: group of five situations. And I do think it is
2:36:56
Speaker 1: amazing how often the college the leaders of college football
2:36:59
Speaker 1: don't think about things as don't sort of have the
2:37:04
Speaker 1: ability to see the potential scenarios that could get created. Look,
2:37:10
Speaker 1: the reason group of five has access is they don't
2:37:12
Speaker 1: want an antitrust lawsuit. They don't want to deal with that,
2:37:16
Speaker 1: so they've got to at least give the illusion that
2:37:20
Speaker 1: all of Division I college football has access to the playoff.
2:37:27
Speaker 1: But you know, they forgot the whole top fifteen part, right.
2:37:30
Speaker 1: You know, if you have a twelve team playoff, I
2:37:33
Speaker 1: think it's reasonable to say, as a conference champion, you
2:37:36
Speaker 1: only get to qualify if you're ranked in the top fifteen.
2:37:39
Speaker 1: If it's a sixteen playoff, sixteen team playoff, you can
2:37:42
Speaker 1: put that to the top twenty. But that way at
2:37:44
Speaker 1: least guarantee because neither Tulane or James Madison were in
2:37:49
Speaker 1: the top fifteen. Boise State last year was. But the
2:37:55
Speaker 1: other problem for the poor group of five is anil
2:37:58
Speaker 1: in the portal three or four years ago. You could have.
2:38:03
Speaker 1: You always had a handful of group of five teams
2:38:05
Speaker 1: that basically just found more diamonds in the rough. Uh,
2:38:08
Speaker 1: And we're able to build successful programs around those diamonds
2:38:12
Speaker 1: in the rough. And in fact, some of these programs
2:38:13
Speaker 1: were so good they became Power conference power players Utah, right,
2:38:17
Speaker 1: formerly a group of five ends up in the Power
2:38:20
Speaker 1: for all right, and they're they're a They're a mainstream
2:38:23
Speaker 1: power for conference right right, They're not like fledgling right.
2:38:26
Speaker 1: SMU is another one that was able to move up.
2:38:32
Speaker 1: But I think now with so many big time programs
2:38:38
Speaker 1: with their own scouting departments, these group these group of
2:38:42
Speaker 1: five programs just can't keep these players. The minute they
2:38:45
Speaker 1: find a diamond in the rough, they're gone. Ditto on
2:38:48
Speaker 1: the fcs. So the gap between the haves and the
2:38:51
Speaker 1: have nots is only going to grow in college football.
2:38:54
Speaker 1: So you had this, I mean both group of both
2:38:57
Speaker 1: group of five programs were just it was so clear
2:39:00
Speaker 1: they didn't belong on the same field due to size
2:39:03
Speaker 1: and speed. They may have the as good of coaches,
2:39:06
Speaker 1: they may have as good schemes, but they just simply
2:39:09
Speaker 1: didn't have enough size and they didn't have enough speed
2:39:12
Speaker 1: and they're never going to have enough size and they're
2:39:15
Speaker 1: never going to have enough speed under these under this
2:39:18
Speaker 1: current scenario. But it's clear they got to put in
2:39:21
Speaker 1: some sort of you know, I think I think we
2:39:24
Speaker 1: all believe, you know, I look at sports in the
2:39:28
Speaker 1: same way look at you know, I think there should
2:39:29
Speaker 1: be a meritocra. I think you should have. You know,
2:39:32
Speaker 1: if somebody, you know, if a Northern Illinois alum is
2:39:37
Speaker 1: suddenly the next big tech financier makes billions and billions
2:39:44
Speaker 1: of dollars and wants to turn Northern Illinois into a power,
2:39:48
Speaker 1: there should be a syst you know that pay. That's
2:39:51
Speaker 1: the way the market works at the moment. And if
2:39:54
Speaker 1: they acquire enough talent and they're ranked in the top
2:39:57
Speaker 1: fifteen and they you know what, power to them. So,
2:40:02
Speaker 1: but you can come up with some sort of safety
2:40:04
Speaker 1: net in your rules in the playoffs so that you
2:40:06
Speaker 1: don't get embarrassing mismatches. Because here you had of the
2:40:10
Speaker 1: four playoff games, two tremendous playoff games between one Alabama
2:40:13
Speaker 1: and Oklahoma and one that was a defensive battle between
2:40:16
Speaker 1: Texas A and m and Miami, and two just real duds.
2:40:21
Speaker 1: Wouldn't have been better to see BYU and note BYU
2:40:24
Speaker 1: playing Ole Miss and say Oregon playing Notre Dame. Right, Look,
2:40:33
Speaker 1: we're gonna have four tremendous games coming up. Texas Tech
2:40:37
Speaker 1: Oregon two programs that want to be haves, but they
2:40:41
Speaker 1: don't have the pedigree yet, they have the money, but
2:40:43
Speaker 1: they don't have the pedigree. I think Miami Ohio State
2:40:47
Speaker 1: that's a battle of I think combined they have over
2:40:50
Speaker 1: a dozen national titles between them. You have Indiana Alabama
2:40:56
Speaker 1: New Money, Old Money, Right, that's a fun one. And
2:41:00
Speaker 1: then we have Georgia Ole Miss, where we're going to
2:41:03
Speaker 1: probably you know, I'm I'm pretty pessimistic on I think
2:41:07
Speaker 1: I think Old Miss rallies around hating Lane Kiffin once,
2:41:10
Speaker 1: can you do it a second time? I think that's
2:41:14
Speaker 1: especially in a game that takes place one day before
2:41:17
Speaker 1: the portal officially opens, and we know there is going
2:41:20
Speaker 1: to be an explosion of Old Miss players that will
2:41:24
Speaker 1: be raising their hands for contracts from Lane Kiffin's LSU program.
2:41:28
Speaker 1: So we shall see. Look, I'm excited. I'm like I
2:41:36
Speaker 1: told you before, I love Miami's path because there's there's
2:41:40
Speaker 1: all these sort of revenge moments. It's now been listen
2:41:44
Speaker 1: It's not lost on me that Miami has won eleven games,
2:41:47
Speaker 1: and this is the that the last time they did that,
2:41:51
Speaker 1: I had no kids. My daughter is twenty one years old,
2:41:55
Speaker 1: is a senior in college, and it's the first time
2:41:59
Speaker 1: in her lifetime then Miami's won eleven or more games.
2:42:02
Speaker 1: So it's a reminder write history. It all depends your perspective.
2:42:07
Speaker 1: For me, Miami's heyday is recent history. For my daughter,
2:42:11
Speaker 1: it's ancient history. I think that probably serves as a
2:42:16
Speaker 1: good way to say goodbye to my college football segment
2:42:18
Speaker 1: because in some ways it dovetails with everything we've been
2:42:22
Speaker 1: talking about today. If there is a through line of
2:42:25
Speaker 1: any of it, all right, with that, I'll sign off.
2:42:31
Speaker 1: I will have, like I said, one more episode later
2:42:35
Speaker 1: this week. Plus we're going to drop, like I said,
2:42:36
Speaker 1: a best of it's an interview that I did a
2:42:40
Speaker 1: few months ago that will be super relevant for a
2:42:43
Speaker 1: campaign that's taking place in the spring of twenty six.
2:42:46
Speaker 1: So with that, I'll sign off and I'll see in
2:42:48
Speaker 1: forty eight hours.