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Best College Football Bets for Week Four! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
Watch anything like Saturday from noon time to like 3:00
0:04
because I was in the air during kickoff and by the time I got to
0:09
the airport and home and unpacked like all the early
0:12
games are pretty much done so. Yeah, he had the worst time
0:16
flight for college football. Well, thinking like the good
0:22
thing about it was like as Friday night, we knew we had
0:25
like because we had, we kind of like splurged little and got
0:28
like a fancy, you know, black SUV to pick us up and take us to
0:32
the airport. But with, with MCO, like, yeah,
0:37
we, we went our, we, we upgraded to like Business Select for the
0:40
flight down. But it was like, oh, your flight
0:44
leaves at 849. OK, well, you need to be at MCO
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like 3 hours before that. So I was like, the driver's
0:50
going to pick you up at 6:00 AM sharp, like.
0:52
Do you use your targeting winners VIP card?
0:55
Is that? What?
0:56
No, but I did use the coupon that I got for a free alcoholic
1:00
beverage for 8:15 AM on the way down.
1:03
Well, there you go. Because you were entitled to
1:05
that for upgrading. But the good thing was Friday
1:10
night. Was that I was going to say.
1:13
Friday night, because we knew we were getting up really early, we
1:17
were back in the hotel room so I got to at least watch my 2 unit
1:20
play come home. Houston smack in Colorado
1:23
around. So I mean I watched all of that
1:25
game but yeah, by the time we got back Saturday.
1:30
And so I put my bets in for my 2 afternoon games while I was
1:33
waiting to get our bags, got home unpacked and just kind of
1:37
like no, it's 3:00 hitting the couch for the rest of the day.
1:40
And so I saw a lot of football from 3:30 on, but anything that
1:45
happened in the early slate, Nope.
1:48
So you were back in New York in time for the coach firings.
1:51
So that was that was good. Yeah, I was there.
1:53
For the important stuff, you know, the firings and yeah, I
1:58
didn't check out, I didn't even check out Mark's rankings this
2:02
past Tuesday. I'll do that later, but.
2:05
Well, I think Dabo Sweeney's going to be moving up the charts
2:08
a little bit. I don't.
2:10
Think they'll fire him? I mean, he can't.
2:12
I mean, come on. Well, it's all your usual
2:15
suspects like, oh, you know what?
2:17
Saturday when we landed in Florida, we were at the the pool
2:23
bar and I did catch like the last five minutes of South
2:27
Florida, Florida, but we were waiting for our snacks and
2:32
beverages. I was like, wow, I just thought
2:34
Napier's fired before like my first day in Florida's even over
2:37
with. Well, had an interesting night
2:42
last night. Yeah, you probably can't tell
2:46
here. I got my arms in a sling playing
2:49
beer league hockey. So a guy was sliding towards me
2:53
and couldn't stop because ice is slippery.
2:55
I've heard that I could not jump high enough to get over him.
2:59
I was airborne upside down and gravity took care of the rest.
3:03
So happy to report nothing broken.
3:05
Nothing. Just nothing dislocated.
3:07
It just hurts like hell. So I'm playing through the pain
3:09
today. Will you?
3:10
Will you be red shirting and, you know, take the rest of the
3:13
year off from the show? Well, we are less than four
3:18
weeks in this. Is this the cut off right?
3:20
I don't, I don't want you to transfer to another program
3:25
because you know, you, you kind of responsible for this thing
3:27
even being a thing at this point.
3:29
So I'm a producer, damn it. Yeah.
3:33
Graphics producer. Director.
3:36
Something like that. So you got.
3:38
All the titles bro. What was that?
3:40
You ever listened to Jim Rome back in the day when one of the
3:43
coaches got fired and there was like a newscaster and he's like,
3:46
if you're going to work this morning, you're not, I think it
3:49
was Doug, Doug, maybe Doug Collins or Mike Fratello or
3:53
something. If you're going to work today,
3:55
you're not Mike Fratello. It's like if you're going to
3:57
work today, you're going to Sean Foster.
4:00
I remember some guys, I don't know if it was the Howard Stern
4:04
show or whatever, but they would take like the biggest blow out
4:06
of the day and be like, if you took UC Irvine plus 47 1/2, you
4:12
lost. I, I, I can't remember, I was
4:18
living in Maryland at the time. I can't remember what show it
4:20
was, but they just picked like the biggest blow out of the day.
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Well, if you had so and so plus 62 1/2, you lost.
4:30
Right, what do you say we start the show?
4:33
Yeah, let's do this. I got to do laundry and upload.
4:35
All right, let's. All right, everybody.
4:39
Welcome to party Winner from Florida, Tim here.
4:41
And from New York, we have Darren going to look back at
4:47
Week 3, pretty eventful week. Pete is on vacation.
4:52
He's at a cat convention in New York City, so we'll see how many
4:56
cats he brings home this time. You'll have to match your wife's
4:59
Christmas ornaments and Christmas trees.
5:01
We'll see what goes on there, but yeah, it's always going to
5:04
the. Record it's September 18th and
5:07
there's only one tree up and it's Halloween.
5:10
It's Halloween decorated though. It's the year long theme tree.
5:15
So yeah, it's it's Halloween. There's a little ghost Topper
5:18
that lights up. Yeah.
5:20
Well, Colleen, better tighten up.
5:21
Got a few more trees up there. So in another month there'll be
5:24
one behind me if I ever record up here 'cause.
5:26
You know, so oh, Virginia Tech, UCLA, they got rid of their
5:32
coaches. Have you heard anything of
5:36
possible replacements? Or I think they lost a defensive
5:38
coordinator too. It didn't Virginia Tech's.
5:41
UCLA defensive coordinator got canned yesterday.
5:45
Yeah, I guess they didn't lose them.
5:46
They. Yeah, they got.
5:48
Yeah. Well, he did not choose to
5:50
leave. He was shown the door.
5:53
They lost so much on defence coming in of the year he was
5:55
kind of behind the 8 ball to start with.
5:57
But the New Mexico lost didn't do anybody any favors and they
6:00
are going into their bye week. So if if you're going to clean
6:03
house and get some new blood in there, this is the week to do
6:07
so. As far as Virginia Tech, that
6:10
dude probably should have got canned last year.
6:13
Or Metallica's taking their song back until.
6:15
Virginia, I saw that. Post I mean, yeah, I don't know
6:18
what you're going to do there that's not working anymore.
6:22
But the interesting thing to to go with that is now, you know,
6:27
when we talked yesterday and as soon as we were we finished
6:29
talking, there was some portal news that dropped.
6:32
The NCAA is eliminating the spring portal window.
6:37
So now it's just going to be 1 window yet to be voted on, but
6:40
probably 10 days, probably sometime in January.
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But the 30 days from when your coach gets fired or resigns or
6:48
quits or whatever, that's still going to be a thing.
6:51
So Virginia Tech did lose their one of their top defensive backs
6:55
this week in the portal and it'll be interesting to see if
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anybody else from the Hokies or UCLA decides to hit.
7:02
Maybe Nico jumps in again, who knows, and goes to.
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I have no idea. We shall see A.
7:09
Lot earlier than than usual, so. Yeah, we had a better week than
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the coaches, so 6:00 and 3:00. Yeah, let's let's take a few
7:17
seconds to gloat. Six and three.
7:21
We all went two and one to keep the math nice and simple.
7:24
One of those wins was was a 2 unit play as well.
7:27
So if you blindly followed us, first of all, thanks, what's the
7:31
matter with you? But thank you.
7:34
And you made a little over 3.2 units on the week if you played
7:37
everything we did. So all right, enough of that.
7:42
That week's over with, using that money to make our bets for
7:45
this week and let's see if we can do it again.
7:48
We'll keep it going. So why don't we just jump right
7:51
into our games here? First one, where is it?
7:56
There it is. This is one of mine coming up
7:59
here, we've got Utah and Texas Tech.
8:03
I believe Utah is giving 3 1/2 points.
8:07
Texas Tech. I bet I'm Utah for this game.
8:11
The stats statistically we're still early in the season, but
8:15
we're pretty close to where teams try to tell us who they
8:17
are. Turnover ratio advantages on
8:22
Utah, I'm concerned about the noon kickoff.
8:25
What the Hell's up with that? I mean it's.
8:27
Like 10:00 AM local time like. This game screams 730 kickoff.
8:32
You know, this game just I mean, this game would be awesome, you
8:35
know, even though it's not their beloved big 10 or SEC, but I
8:38
mean, but this is this would just be an awesome 7:00 game.
8:43
So but so I'm sure the crowd will still be into it.
8:47
I mean it is Utah after all. You know, they are very good on
8:51
3rd down. They're they convert almost 75%
8:54
of the time. I'll give it, it's only through
8:56
the first few weeks, but given that they're at home 3 1/2, I'm
9:02
just worried about that half a point, but not worried enough to
9:04
not bet it. So I like Utah here covering the
9:08
3 1/2. What do you think?
9:10
Yeah, I've I've for every article that I've read that says
9:14
take Texas Tech, I've heard somebody say, no, I love Utah in
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this game. And I kind of agree with you
9:18
just from a defensive standpoint.
9:21
Texas Tech was terrible last year.
9:23
I know they had an incredible portal haul.
9:26
But even though these these teams are three games end of the
9:28
season now looking at who they played, yeah, at one point the
9:33
Utah win over UCLA meant something.
9:35
But now what do you get out of that?
9:37
UCLA is apparently God awful this year.
9:41
I do lean Utah as well. I would love to have have seen a
9:44
three somewhere 'cause like I said, I think this 10:00 AM
9:48
local time kick start kick off is is going to take some
9:53
adjusting. I mean, these guys aren't
9:54
playing at 10 AM usually. But, you know, we we gloated and
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loved Devin Dampier and how much he could possibly be a dark
10:03
horse with the Heisman. Well, here's his here's his
10:06
chance. But yeah, I think defensively,
10:09
I, I give a pretty significant edge to Utah 3 1/2.
10:13
Like you say, I know you're worried about that 3 1/2 and
10:16
maybe rightfully so. But I I agree with the side.
10:19
I like Utah as well. But I mean, I would hold out for
10:22
a three, but I don't know if you're going to get it.
10:24
I think I I read the Emperor's only he's only been two sacks
10:28
this year. Well, he's quite elusive.
10:31
I mean, he's he's difficult to bring down.
10:33
I mean, he saw that. When he was on new.
10:35
Mexico and you knew they were passing all the time because New
10:37
Mexico's defense was so bad and you still couldn't really sack
10:40
the guy. But his problem last year, yeah,
10:42
just made some poor throws. Doesn't look like that's an
10:45
issue, at least to start the year.
10:46
So could be a nice, nice. Hey, guys, now you know who I
10:51
am. But yeah, I agree with you on
10:54
the side. OK.
10:56
All right. Now we got one of yours up here,
10:58
Darren. We got UTEP and Louisiana
11:00
Monroe. Take it away.
11:01
Yeah, it's my obscure game of the week here.
11:04
I, I, I came into the season high on UTEP.
11:07
I do have a a futures bet on them over 5 1/2 for a win total.
11:12
A little bit of plus money here. I was kind of impressed with
11:16
with them going into Texas thinking, you know, OK, just a
11:20
paycheck game for the Miners here.
11:22
They would just get blown out. They were a 39 1/2 point
11:25
underdog. They actually played kind of
11:28
good considering you know, the athletes on UTEP.
11:32
Let's face it, they're not going to match up size wise, strength
11:35
wise, speed wise what the Texas Longhorns have.
11:39
But to their credit down Malachi Nelson, even though he threw 2
11:42
picks, he had more passing yards in Arch Manning.
11:44
They were only out gained by 81 yards overall for the game.
11:49
I think defensively this team is taking a big step forward and
11:53
you look at Louisiana Monroe, they're they're coming off of my
11:57
week. So maybe that's why the spread
11:58
is is it's actually it's 6 1/2 now.
12:01
I got it a couple days ago at 5 1/2.
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I would still go up to 6 1/2 here.
12:05
You know, they start off against an FCS opponent, St.
12:08
Francis. They're like a 31 point favorite
12:11
that you know, they won 29 to nothing.
12:13
But this is a Saint Francis team that's currently O and three and
12:16
have been outscored 105 to 13. That's a team that ULM should
12:22
have, should have curb stomped and they did not.
12:24
And then they went to Alabama the following week to collect
12:27
their paycheck and they lost 73 to nothing.
12:30
Ty Simpson completed all seventeen of his passes.
12:34
This is just a ULM team that does not look like it doesn't
12:38
look like it's going to be a good year for them again.
12:40
They started off 5 and one last year and they still did.
12:42
Not make a bowl game. It's just, you know, I think
12:46
UTEP maybe looks at how they did against Texas.
12:49
And I'm not a moral victory kind of guy, but Scotty Walden seems
12:55
to to be that kind of guy. So maybe this springboards them.
12:58
And Conference USA Liberty is obviously trash.
13:01
They lost a Bowling Green last week.
13:03
So this is probably the worst conference in football.
13:06
So who knows who's going to win this thing.
13:08
But I think this is a this is a spot where UTEP puts it all
13:12
together, despite Louisiana Monroe coming off the bye week,
13:16
that their quarterback play is terrible.
13:18
Now defensively, UTEP's already registered 10 sacks on the year,
13:20
so they're playing better on both sides of the ball.
13:24
So I would still lay the 6th and 1/2, which looks like, according
13:27
to the Vegas Insider, that's what's available pretty much.
13:30
Everywhere. But if they won this by double
13:33
digits, I would not be surprised.
13:35
I didn't go 2 units on this. I want to push my luck, but I
13:39
think UTEP, I think they they, they make a statement here and
13:42
then they roll. OK, I have not seen either of
13:46
these teams play yet, so as far as my thoughts, I do not have
13:50
any. I'm going to watch this weekend
13:51
because you've got the. I, I saw the first UTEP game
13:54
against Utah State. We know Utah State is a pretty
13:58
fun offensive club, but I mean, they gave up 28 points to them,
14:03
but they also had like 7 or 8 penalties.
14:05
So I mean, they kind of shot themselves in the foot.
14:07
But I'll put too much stock into your first game of the year.
14:10
Really. You know, I just bashed
14:13
Louisiana Monroe for not steamrolling St.
14:15
Francis. But yeah, Utah played good.
14:18
I think they're going to take something from this Texas game
14:20
and they're going to roll here. I want to go back to one of mine
14:24
here. We've got the Arizona State.
14:26
They're getting 2 1/2 at Baylor. I like this Baylor.
14:31
I've seen this, seen two of their games already this year,
14:33
which is odd, but you know, I saw the Auburn game, saw the SMU
14:37
game. I like the offense a lot.
14:41
I like the fact that they are at home.
14:44
They're giving 2 1/2. I think it did go up.
14:48
I think it went up a little bit on Hard Rock beds.
14:52
I didn't check it this morning, but when I bet it was +2 or -2
14:57
1/2. So the running game concerns me.
15:01
Scataboo's gone, but they still have a running back there who
15:05
looks very more than capable. Concerned with Baylor's
15:11
defensive line. They're having some trouble
15:13
stopping the run, but I I think it's a high, high scoring game.
15:18
I almost wanted to bet the over with this as well, but I like
15:23
Baylor. Giving the 2 1/2 at home gets
15:26
Arizona State. Yeah, for that number, I I would
15:29
agree with you there, but normally I wouldn't if this was
15:32
on the the RPO segment at the end, I could not run away far
15:35
enough from this game. I, I bet Baylor first week of
15:39
the season, I thought they could take care of Auburn, but like
15:41
you said, apparently watching the quarterback run all over the
15:44
place, We, we're not going to adjust for that.
15:46
We're just going to let them do it for all four quarters.
15:48
So but boy, offensively they are elite.
15:53
I, I, I would agree with your over assessment here, but I
15:57
would not want any part of this side here.
16:00
So. Yeah, I noticed you.
16:02
Man for putting. This one out there, the two
16:06
players I I like from week 122 and one, the receiver, they have
16:11
fallen off. They weren't near the production
16:14
that I saw against Auburn, but maybe there'll be a resurgence
16:17
for that kid. So I think one thing I've
16:21
noticed between NFL and college is the talent level, but also
16:25
the coaching level. I mean, there's some, I mean,
16:29
some of these coaches like wondering what the hell they're
16:32
thinking sometimes. So.
16:33
But yeah, Baylor minus the 2 1/2.
16:37
Oh, that's Stanford Cardinal. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm fading
16:43
Stanford here, even though I've already been on Virginia once
16:47
and then they blew a double digit lead in the second-half
16:49
and cost me a A+ money money line play a couple weeks ago.
16:55
I just really like what this team has brought in through the
16:58
portal. Usually they don't go that
16:59
route, but this year they really did go all in.
17:03
One of the things that we talked about last year and then there
17:06
is some validity to it is with teams that travel across at
17:09
least two time zones are usually very poor bets against the
17:12
spread. Stanford will be travelling all
17:14
the way across the country here for this game.
17:17
And if you need proof, has it happened this year?
17:19
Yeah, it happened last week. Boston College flew all the way
17:22
out to Stanford. They were a 13 point favorite
17:24
and lost outright by 10. So there is something to that.
17:30
Stanford, they, they can run the ball.
17:32
They they have had some success running the ball, but their
17:35
quarterback is pretty poor and I'll just say that he probably
17:40
single handedly cost him the Hawaii game in week zero.
17:44
And through three games, Stanford's only put up 800 yards
17:47
in total offense. Virginia's got 800 yards rushing
17:49
and over 800 yards passing already.
17:51
Chandler Morris, who I love for for the Cavaliers here, I think
17:56
he's going to have a huge game. My only concern is when did the
17:59
starters come out and does the back door open here for the
18:03
Cardinal? But I believe I got what, 15
18:06
1/2? I think in some places it's 16
18:08
1/2 now. I would still take it all the
18:11
way up to 60. And I think the time change is
18:14
going to affect Stanford. I don't think Stanford's as good
18:16
as as they looked. I think Boston College made more
18:19
or less handed them that with some some poor play, especially
18:22
late second quarter, early in the third.
18:24
But I mean, Stanford's still still a really, really bad team
18:28
here. And I wasn't that high on Boston
18:29
College either. So I think Virginia gets right
18:33
here. They keep the offense rolling
18:34
that that that time zone change is going to affect Cardinal.
18:38
What a time zone it's. I'm telling you it's a.
18:42
Thing that's happening this. Year.
18:47
Yeah, especially with some of the.
18:48
Beauty of this realignment with some of these teams coming all
18:50
the way across the country. I mean, we saw it when
18:53
Washington came all the way to play Rutgers.
18:56
Yeah, they should have won that game.
18:57
But just a lot of mental mistakes.
18:59
Rutgers ended up covering that game.
19:01
I'll tell you there, there's a ton of examples where where this
19:03
is a thing. Plus Stanford I don't think is a
19:05
very good football club. So yeah, give me Virginia to
19:08
cover. But I think I got 50 1/2.
19:10
But they should wear this one by three touchdowns now.
19:14
We're going to move on. Michigan State at USCI took a
19:18
page out of Pete's book. Not going for a winner here.
19:22
I'm playing the over. It's 55 1/2.
19:26
I believe. My analysis of this is that both
19:29
their defenses are they're not, they're not good and their
19:36
offenses are very capable. They can obviously put up some
19:39
points. I don't think they'll be as kind
19:42
to me as Notre Dame and Texas and them last week covering by
19:44
halftime. But I do think they can get up
19:48
over that. Probably by I'm expecting by,
19:51
you know, mid to late third quarter they will have hit this.
19:55
And so it's 55 1/2. Yeah, I, I just USC, they're
20:02
terrible. I mean, neither, I don't think
20:03
either teams really had a top level offense.
20:08
They've played again. So they're still giving up
20:10
points left and right. So yeah, this, this just screams
20:14
over. I know 55 is a little high, but
20:17
I think they'll still get there. So yeah, I got the taking one of
20:21
Peter's bets here. I got the over at 55 1/2.
20:25
Yeah, I agree with that. I I watched the Michigan State
20:28
Boston College game. That was one I gave out the week
20:30
before I left on vacation. You know, Michigan State put up
20:35
42 points. Charles is looking looking
20:38
better. Nick Marsh, they're they're wide
20:41
receivers questionable here, but defensively, Michigan State is
20:45
terrible. They made that Boston College
20:48
look like Joe Montana for crying out loud.
20:51
Their secondary is awful when you're going up against the Maya
20:54
V and USC here, that that is not a good thing.
20:57
USC last week against Purdue didn't punt at all, did have to
21:02
settle for four field goals, but still they they still put up 33
21:06
even even settling for all those field goals.
21:10
And defensively, they let Purdue kind of go up and down the
21:12
field. Purdue's quarterback had three
21:15
picks, I believe, all in USC territory.
21:18
So Purdue was moving it. I mean, that's not what you
21:23
expect when you watch Purdue. So 2 questionable defenses.
21:27
I think USC could still cover this game.
21:29
We, we talked about the time zone thing.
21:31
It's an 11:00 start time, you know, which is 8:00 in Southern
21:36
Cal, Michigan State. They're probably all in bed by,
21:41
you know, this time. So I think keep an eye on that
21:44
could be close first half, say second-half USC pulls away here.
21:48
But yeah, neither of these defenses give me any confidence.
21:52
I I like that play as well. I still think it's going to be
21:54
like, you know, 4238 something like that around the the score.
21:59
I mean, they gave him 20 points at home to was it Georgia
22:02
Southern? They played a few weeks ago in
22:04
week 1 or Week 2. I think they gave him like 23
22:06
points to like Georgia Southern as at yeah, and that was another
22:10
time zone game too. So even with the time zone, they
22:13
still gave up 20 points to, you know, a group of five teams.
22:16
So that's yeah, so there's my play and we will.
22:21
Oh boy, the Tim Ball I'm. Glad you saved this one for last
22:26
cause yeah, when we, when we started this show, we were just
22:29
kind of like, you know, we're just going to be two idiots.
22:32
Now we're up to three idiots. But, you know, just basically
22:36
talking college football, if we were all sitting around in a
22:38
bar, like you could just sit with us and we would just talk
22:41
about stuff like this. The the observer in me has
22:48
watched a couple Florida games, has seen a couple of Miami
22:51
games, and you would think it's 7 1/2.
22:54
I would be like knocking over old ladies to run to the window
22:57
and and bet on Miami here. But I went the opposite way,
23:02
one, because 7 1/2 now you got to take that hook there.
23:06
But, I mean, we saw it last year, man, when Napier's ass is
23:12
on the line. I mean, Florida still plays for
23:15
this guy. And yeah, they crapped the bed
23:18
against South Florida and the talks started up again.
23:20
But you know, you had a spitting penalty in there that helped put
23:24
South Florida in field goal range.
23:26
And you look at that LSU game, I mean, their defense is legit.
23:31
I mean, they got some elite athletes on that side of the
23:34
ball. They're playing really well.
23:36
And you know, they lost 20 to 10.
23:38
But one of those was a pick 6 is DJ Lagway on his five
23:42
interceptions. And you only lost 20 to 10 on
23:45
the road against the potential national championship contending
23:49
team. I mean, somebody's, I was
23:53
reading something, somebody said, you'll know right away
23:57
whether this game's going to be competitive or not.
23:58
And I agree with that. It's all going to depend on
24:02
Lagway. I mean, he can't possibly play.
24:05
It's bad again. And I mean, you know, living
24:09
down there, these Florida games, whether it's Miami, FL State,
24:12
Florida, I mean, you kind of throw all the stats and all that
24:17
crap out the window. This, I think this is going to
24:21
be a competitive game. I don't think Florida's going to
24:24
win. I don't think they're going to
24:26
get steamrolled either. I mean, this still is the ACC
24:29
against the SEC. Yeah, I don't know.
24:34
I don't know something just tell like, like I said, the fan in me
24:38
would think Miami by 24. But the you know, the the guy
24:43
who looks at the box scores and and tries to to make money for
24:47
myself and our listeners and viewers every week.
24:50
I just got a feeling this is going to be a close game.
24:54
And since I got 7 1/2, I'm more willing to take that chance that
24:57
if it was 6 1/2, I might have just left it alone.
24:59
But yeah, man, Florida's defense is no joke.
25:05
I think they keep him in this one.
25:06
I think Lagway, he's got a rebound.
25:08
He can't possibly suck that bad. So yeah, man, this big rivalry,
25:13
Florida, Yeah, man, give me the Gators and the seven and a half.
25:19
Well, I I don't know if you've heard it up here, I don't know
25:21
where I've heard it down here, but they're calling him DJ Yui
25:24
Yuiyunga Lagway. Yeah, how many DJDJ giveaway?
25:30
So yeah, the prompt, the two main problems I have with this
25:35
game is I don't want Miami to win and I want Florida to lose,
25:40
so. That would be a problem because
25:43
yeah. That's a problem.
25:44
So both of those things are. Not going to happen.
25:46
So I guess I'll make targeting winners history here.
25:49
I'm going to give out a 0 unit play.
25:51
I I disagree with you 100%. I think Miami is going to.
25:56
I would roll over a whole bus full of old ladies to lay down 7
26:02
1/2 on Miami to just demolish Florida.
26:08
Miami's no joke either. I mean, even with crystal ball,
26:10
but he usually doesn't crystal ball until late October, early
26:13
November. So he's still in well.
26:16
To be to be fair, I agree with everything you said.
26:19
If Miami win this game by 40, I would not be surprised.
26:22
But you know, Miami's overachieving.
26:24
Maybe crystal ball. Crystal Ball is a little earlier
26:26
than he's used to. I mean, if if Miami wins this
26:30
game by 17, I'll be surprised because I thought it would be a
26:33
lot more. Yeah, they love to just run it
26:38
up, especially when it's this in state rivalry thing.
26:40
If they get a chance to just lay it down, they're, they're going
26:43
to, I believe Jimmy Johnston is going to be in there again.
26:46
Give him the go out there and run it up.
26:48
Don't stop, you know. Well.
26:50
There you go. Yeah.
26:51
We know Notre Dame's had got a terrible defense this year so
26:54
far. So I mean, who else?
26:56
Miami played South Florida, terrible defense.
26:58
Notre Dame so far, terrible defense, which I never thought I
27:01
would say, yeah, Flora's giving up.
27:06
Well, Flora's giving up like 12 points a game.
27:08
It's they they haven't played a defense like this, although they
27:11
should have in week one. They didn't.
27:15
This is a different, this is a different, this is different
27:20
animal here. You know the SEC just means
27:22
more. Yeah, I'm surprised.
27:25
Game day is there. Isn't Auburn.
27:28
Auburn's playing Oklahoma. Yeah, they already went.
27:31
They already saw Oklahoma, I think this year, right?
27:33
Aren't didn't they? I don't know.
27:36
Yeah, they were just there last week, weren't they?
27:39
Maybe I remember. That McAfee I think think in
27:42
Oklahoma, yeah, but that's our first big disagreement here we
27:48
got. Yeah, you and I usually don't
27:50
have them. But The thing is, I agree with
27:52
all your points, you know, and from what I've seen, it wouldn't
27:57
surprise me. But the seven and a half is
28:00
enticing. And Florida's defense can keep
28:03
him in it. It's all, it's all on my way.
28:05
I That's sounds kind of easy to say, but that's the truth.
28:11
All right, well, let's move on. We're cruising here.
28:14
These last two shows have been good, but only two of them.
28:19
Two. Hours to upload the video.
28:21
Can't wait all. Right.
28:23
We're going to do the RPO segment, rice -2 1/2 at
28:27
Charlotte. That is tonight.
28:29
It is added that just because it is tonight and maybe somebody
28:32
wants to try and get their week off with a bag, it's game Open
28:36
Rice 6 1/2 got all the way down to 2 1/2.
28:39
I think now it's gone too. If it was 6 1/2, I still would
28:41
have taken Charlotte 2 1/2. Now if I had to bet this just to
28:46
have some action, I would take Rice here.
28:48
Yeah, it was the same. Just for that reason, if it's
28:50
got a better down that much take rice give you 2 1/2 SMU getting
28:54
7 at TCU, I would go and I would take SMU in the points here.
28:58
That would be my run to the betting window.
29:03
God, they struggled against Missouri State for far too long.
29:07
Kind of like TCU. I don't think they're as good as
29:09
them whooping up on North Carolina, but Josh Hoover's
29:13
legit man. I mean I would maybe hold out.
29:16
See if you get 6 1/2 if you want TCU or 7 1/2 if you want SMU.
29:21
No play here, just lean towards TCU.
29:24
Yeah, Arkansas -7 1/2 at Memphis.
29:26
This would be a pass for me. I don't like that line at all.
29:31
I would take Memphis if you're a believer at this point of season
29:34
and look ahead. Arkansas plays Notre Dame next
29:36
week. Memphis.
29:39
I mean, I know Seth Hannigan's not there anymore, but usually
29:42
one of the more decent Group of Five squads out there.
29:45
Maybe just because it's 7 1/2 lean Memphis.
29:47
But yeah, no play for me either. Maryland plus 10 at Wisconsin.
29:51
I'll run with Wisconsin. Agreed.
29:54
And Maryland is asked, Wisconsin's kind of asked too.
29:57
But I believe, I don't think Billy Edwards, the Maryland
30:00
transfer of is healthy not to play quarterback for them.
30:03
But Wisconsin should roll here not not a Maryland win.
30:06
We do have this Oregon State at Oregon.
30:09
That's one of Pete's place, which we'll give out in a
30:12
minute. I'm running and giving the 35.
30:15
I think first I didn't think, I thought it was too high.
30:17
Then I saw what Dan Lanning did to Oklahoma State.
30:20
He's a gangster. I think he's going to just run
30:22
up and blow these guys out. So I don't mind giving a giving
30:25
a big line with Oregon. Yeah, Oregon State's kind of
30:28
asked this year. I would.
30:30
I know it's rivalry, civil war, whatever the hell they call it,
30:33
but yeah, Oregon should rolled her.
30:35
Look Oregon plus 6 1/2 at Oklahoma.
30:38
I I'm leaning to Auburn here. If I was going to run to the
30:41
window, I would bet Auburn. I'd be all over the tutors here,
30:45
man. I, I, I get it.
30:46
Jackson Arnold, now the Auburn quarterback coming back to
30:48
Oklahoma, He knows his defense. He used to see it in practice a
30:52
lot last year. We know what Oklahoma's defense
30:54
used to see him in practice all last year.
30:56
Dude hasn't shown he can throw the ball with any consistency
31:00
that they they can take away his ability to run.
31:03
They're top get in the portal. Wide receiver Singleton
31:06
questionable here. Or maybe it's because I have the
31:09
Sooners and an alternate win total, at least eight regular
31:12
season wins at night, plus money, and I kind of need this
31:14
here. Yeah, 6 1/2 I I'd take the
31:18
Sooners here. I think they're going to win.
31:20
Two lane plus 13 1/2 at Ole Miss.
31:22
I still hate Lane Kiffin. Hard pass.
31:27
Agreed, I wouldn't touch this game but I guess if I had to
31:30
take a lien I would take a shot at Tulane.
31:32
I I believe Simmons Austin Simmons is questionable to play
31:37
here so if he plays I'm not expecting him to be 100%.
31:40
I'd take the points if I had to. Be there, but Purdue getting 25
31:44
1/2 at the fighting Marcus Raymond's.
31:48
That's a big Marcus Raymond's have not been.
31:50
Playing. They're going to win here.
31:53
Remember last year when they lost to Northern Illinois and
31:56
Notre Dame went from like a 10 point favorite all the way down
31:58
to seven and then they won 66 to 7?
32:03
I don't know if it's going to be that bad again, but despite who
32:08
had Notre Dame Twitter or the defence coordinator who they
32:11
call Chris Trash instead of Chris Ash's actual name, who has
32:16
ruined a top five defence in a mere 8 quarters of football.
32:22
I mean as much Notre Dame as I watch, I'm I'm not calling 66 to
32:27
7. They should cover here.
32:29
But if you've watched that defense, how do you lay 25 1/2
32:33
against the Purdue team that we saw could move the ball against
32:36
USC last week died. I would stay away.
32:40
Stay away. Hard pass.
32:42
We got North Carolina, the Fighting Belichicks getting 7
32:45
points at UCF right away. If you have to sit there and
32:52
think about it that long, it's it's it should be an automatic
32:54
pass you. Know it is a pass I've I've been
32:58
first bet I made this year North Carolina over their win total.
33:02
This was a game I thought they could win.
33:04
They're sitting at 2:00 and 1:00.
33:05
They're playing better defensively.
33:08
But bro, I hate to say this to you and don't slap me through
33:10
the computer. Gio Lopez is.
33:11
Not he's not look good. Do you trust Scott Frost to do
33:18
anything correctly as long as he's a head coach anywhere?
33:21
But yeah, the fact that I took a second and a half without saying
33:24
anything, Easy pass here for me. But secretly rooting for North
33:28
Carolina to pull you upset? NC State plus 3 1/2 at Duke.
33:31
I would run to the window for NC State.
33:33
I almost made that play this week.
33:35
I was so close. That was the one game I whittled
33:37
out of my my 4:00 to get down to three.
33:40
I whittled out that so I would run to NC State, getting 3 1/2
33:43
at Duke. I disagree.
33:45
I would I would take Duke here. They're kind of desperate losing
33:48
to Illinois. Yeah, they got, they got to get
33:51
themselves a nice conference win to get the to get their ACC
33:54
season started here we're. Disagreeing.
33:57
I mean, what's, what's Pete going to?
33:58
Think I know, like what Pete's going to look at this and just
34:01
start drinking because you and I usually always agree here.
34:04
I think just a desperation factor.
34:06
I mean, North Carolina State's undefeated Duke kind of needs
34:08
this. They're at home.
34:10
Yeah. Let's let's Mensa and the $8
34:12
million you paid him now. Now is the time for it to pay
34:14
off. I would take Duke here all.
34:16
Right, West Virginia plus 12 1/2 at Kansas.
34:22
West Virginia had a, you know, nice run last week.
34:26
I don't see this. This is going to be a pass.
34:28
I think 12 1/2 is the spreads actually.
34:31
Spreads gone up. I would be all over Kansas here.
34:34
This was actually the the last game that I kicked out of my
34:38
bets. Love Kansas.
34:41
What they're doing offensively, defensively, they're actually
34:43
playing a little better than I thought.
34:45
West Virginia, not a lot expected of them.
34:47
They had their big rivalry game against Pittsburgh down 10-5
34:53
minutes ago. Came back, tied it up, wanted it
34:56
overtime. Big let down spot here for West
34:58
Virginia. And Rich Rod.
34:59
I mean, Rich Rod's crying on the sidelines after the game is
35:02
over. They're spent man Kansas.
35:04
Kansas by like 21. South Carolina getting 10 at
35:09
Missouri. We on Lenore Sellers watch Are
35:12
you going to play? He's probable apparently
35:17
sometime tonight. All the injury reports that are
35:20
now mandatory come out if he plays.
35:23
Is he 100%? Who knows.
35:25
Missouri looks pretty. Legit I would lay the.
35:27
I would lay the tat. If I had all right, I'm passing
35:29
on that one. Illinois getting sick.
35:31
That Indiana. I would run with Indiana on this
35:34
one. I think I would run to the
35:35
window and bet it. If you were, you should have got
35:38
it when it opened at like 2 1/2 or three.
35:41
I think Indiana's winning and I'm I'm again, I have an over 8
35:45
1/2 on Indiana here. 6 is too much It it's too much.
35:50
Wow, looks like a bunch of. Daddies already got rain over.
35:53
Yeah, this is this screams like a three-point game.
35:55
So I mean, if you're if you're going to give me 6, as much as
35:57
it would pain me, Indiana wins does not cover.
36:00
I would take Illinois. And the last one of the RPO we
36:03
got Washington given 19 1/2 at Washington State.
36:09
I would take Washington all day long, and I only say this
36:12
because I bet North Texas over Washington state last week.
36:16
I laid the five and a half and they won 59 to 3 or whatever it
36:21
was. Washington state looks terrible.
36:24
Give me Washington. I know it's rivalry game, Apple
36:26
Cup or whatever the hell they call it.
36:27
Give me Washington all day long here.
36:30
All right, so we're going to wrap this up.
36:32
Let's review our picks for the week.
36:33
We have Pete and he has Oregon, Oregon State over 57 1/2.
36:40
He has Michigan, Nebraska, he's got the over of 45 1/2 and Iowa,
36:46
Rutgers. Hey, look, on an Iowa game,
36:49
you're going to take the under 45 1/2.
36:52
I love two of those. I I love that Michigan, Nebraska
36:55
play. Tron Moore's not coaching.
36:58
He's serving the second of his two game suspension and our boy
37:01
Biff Poggi, who Bryce Underwood run wild last week.
37:06
Probably going to do the same thing again here.
37:09
Nebraska's pass game is is kind of decent.
37:11
Rayola definitely taking a a step forward there under
37:14
Halverson is the duo CI like that and Iowa Rutgers, one of
37:19
the Rutgers top receivers. Ian Strong is supposed to be
37:22
out. Yep, I I love those two from
37:25
him. OK.
37:27
And my bets this week, I've got Utah -3 1/2 over Texas Tech,
37:31
Baylor -2 1/2 over Arizona State and Michigan State.
37:35
USC I've got the over 55 1/2. Aaron, what do you got?
37:39
Florida plus 7 1/2 over the Hurricanes.
37:42
I'm taking Virginia laying the 15 1/2 over Stanford and UTEP -5
37:46
1/2 over Louisiana Monroe. All right, well, that'll wrap it
37:50
up. Thank you all for listening.
37:52
Please don't forget to like and subscribe to our videos on
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YouTube and leave a review, leave some comments.
37:58
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38:00
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38:02
Yes. Yeah, let us know who you're
38:03
betting on here too as well. So once again, thank you all for
38:07
listening and we will catch you next week.