Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | December 16, 2023 | UFC 296 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | December 16, 2023 | UFC 296 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
Fall systems going clear the lifting. Oh yeah, we're back. Final card
0:39
of the year, T Mobile Arena in Vegas, UFC two ninety six two
0:44
title fights too, five rounders, gonna be a fun one. It looked
0:48
a lot better earlier in the week. Fourteen fights compared to twelve. It's
0:52
a huge difference for me, I will say, though, mag Marley,
0:55
because there is NFL Saturday tambo hoop talking. I don't know if they're still
0:59
live right now now. They did go live an hour ago, though,
1:00
so make sure to check that out. With at three games on Saturday.
1:04
For NFL prize pools not nearly what they usually are on a pay per view
1:08
even a normal card. Still one hunter k up top qualifiers good, plenty
1:14
of money to be made. But I guess because of those prize pools us
1:19
losing the two fights, it wasn't the worst thing. There'll be tons of
1:22
action on Saturday NBA streets as well. But I'm excited to watch some fights.
1:26
I'm excited to see some violence, big Man. How you doing,
1:27
Big Marley? Good Man? A good card to go out on solid.
1:33
Twelve fights still, at least hopefully it stays at that. Fourteen would have
1:36
been a lot cooler. Yeah, I mean it does suck that we're getting
1:38
like fight night type prizes. At the same time, I'm glad to have
1:42
NFL on as well. Hopefully we can win on that and in UFC because
1:48
we offer them both over a ship At Nation dot com, go sign up,
1:49
you get everything for one price. And I finished all my stuff today.
1:55
I'm feeling pretty good about this card. I think it's a great MMV
1:57
card. I'm gonna start digging into the solver as soon as we finish this
2:01
podcast, and I think it'll be one hundred and fifty lineup week. Hopefully
2:06
we can ship it. Yeah. Absolutely, I'm excited for to a couple
2:08
fights. Still giving me a little problems, but it's term. I agree
2:13
with you. It's always an mm card for me. But with two five
2:15
rounders and a good amount of closely lined fights, I think there's a lot
2:19
of ways to go. I think ownership will be pretty spread out. You
2:22
said all of your stuff is up. I'm still finishing. I got I
2:25
think two three fights. I still got a breakdown projections. Ownership will be
2:29
up. Most of my stuff done too, though, but we got the
2:31
cast show hoop and I after this, so my stuff will be up in
2:36
the afternoon. As Big Marley said, though we have everything up NBA as
2:39
well, NHL going on NFL of course, no better time. Monster weekend
2:45
over here at shippination dot com as low as twenty five or is weekly membership
2:50
twenty five dollars a week that is not including discord Otherwise monthly six months and
2:54
annual sixty nine dollars a month. Six month comes out to fifty nine dollars
2:59
a month. Annual comes out to forty nine dollars a month. Man,
3:02
a lot of people, a lot of great words from the community, a
3:06
lot of people. I mean, there's no better price in the industry.
3:08
I think the quality is as good as everything else out there. You need
3:13
projections, we got them core reports. If you don't have much time,
3:15
but really discore community second to none in my opinion. So shout out everybody
3:20
out there. Nickel Bowl Whaler, Ben Jizzi, Clinton here, what's going
3:24
on? Clint are Ross is in here, Jackie as well. I saw
3:29
Clint playing some poker with Kobe Covington last months, so I'm excited to talk
3:35
some fights with Clint as well. Let's go first fight off any broad slid
3:38
overview, like leaving salary on the table, any rules you're making, what
3:44
do you do with the two five rounders, how do you approach that?
3:46
Just any thoughts before you go fight by fight. I mean, I haven't
3:50
got to the solver yet. I don't know how chalky I am yet,
3:53
but I think there are multiple fights where I'm okay exiting at one side of
3:59
it. I think there's one all in for the title fights, and then
4:03
there's one where where I only have interested in one side. So it's kind
4:08
of a card where I feel like I'm gonna narrow down my combinations. I
4:12
don't know if I'm even gonna do twenty like handbuild twenty or not, but
4:15
if I do, I'm gonna keep it to a real tight core. But
4:17
I just plan on going all in on the picks. I want to be
4:20
heavy on and hope hopefully hitting the right combination and if I am too chucky,
4:25
then yeah, leaving salary on the table will probably be how I get
4:28
there because there's not a whole lot of low owned plays that I really like
4:32
this week. Yeah, no, I'm with you there, And yeah,
4:34
that Roy Valpantosia fight man, that is I mean, you could be looking
4:39
at the fight of the year right there. That'll be a banger. Rummy's
4:42
in here, Eddie Jackie paper, what's going on? Fellas bottom to top?
4:46
As always, we do appreciate that like button, appreciate that subscribe button.
4:48
And again if you want to head over to ship a Nation dot com,
4:51
multiple different packages for you to check out. First fight of the night.
4:57
Again, we lost two fights, the Randy Brown sal CoV fight and
5:00
the Ian Gary Vicente Luke fight. So fourteen down to twelve. I'm still
5:06
going based on the order it was earlier in the week. I know it.
5:10
I don't know if the order changed a little bit, Like I know,
5:12
Bryce Mitchell and Emmett is now on the main card. I'm not sure
5:15
if they mixed the bout orders. But from earlier in the week, going
5:17
bottom the top. First fight of the night, the only big boy fight
5:21
of the week, mart Martin Boudai taking on Shamil Gazeve. Looking at the
5:27
odds on this one, boudaie minus one twenty five Gazev plus one oh five
5:31
looking at this one fight is minus two hundred to finish. Budai plus one
5:36
fifty five gaze plus one ninety inside the distance. I mean, man,
5:42
I'm looking at this as low level heavyweights, right in the mid tier.
5:46
But if you look at the two five round fights Leon and Kobe eighty two
5:48
hundred eight, k Royvel and Pantosia eighty six hundred seventy six hundred, So
5:55
this fight right in that mid tier. Like this fight we're gonna talk about
5:57
Pheeley and Lucas Almeida like they're going gets some ownership. It's good fights to
6:00
target in my opinion, but the ownership has to stay and check because everyone's
6:05
gonna go to the five rounders around it. But the mid tier build,
6:09
I think you could play all those fights and then you can leave the money
6:12
on the table. Fourteen hundred and sixteen hundred jam the mid tier and stuff
6:15
like that. So that's kind of my initial thoughts bringing all into this first
6:19
fight. I'll be playing some of the five rounders mid tier strong though nine
6:24
k range, I don't know, man, it's pretty iffy, so I
6:28
think you can definitely leave money on the table. What how I see this
6:30
one? Gazeve making his UFC debut Boudaie, I mean he cuts down to
6:34
make heavyweights pretty good cardio though, looks to me like Gazeve wants to fight
6:40
on the mat primary wrestler, good ground and pound, but the dude looks
6:44
to have zero gas tank. So I'm targeting this fight low level heavyweights.
6:48
Gaze round one. If you can get on top althwise, I think he
6:50
falls off a cliff. Probably just gonna play the ownership game in this one.
6:55
I think Gaze will be higher owned than Boudaie because the line keeps moving
6:59
tow and the pricing, So yeah, I'll probably have a little more budai.
7:02
I'll be playing this fight though, what about you? Yeah, I
7:05
love this fight. I think we start off the night with a big score
7:08
in this one. Really, all of this Ghaziev's fights are the same.
7:13
He goes out there right away and he starts to blitz his opponent, throwing
7:15
these wild haymakers, and he either knocks them out or he goes for a
7:18
takedown and he gets it usually, and then he starts landing ground to pound,
7:24
and then he gets the stoppage shortly after. Really a bunch of scrubs.
7:28
One the one guy that hung in there and extended the fight ended up
7:31
going to a split decision. They were both completely exhausted. So if Ghazeev
7:36
makes it out of this first round, I feel like it's all Budai all
7:41
day in the second round, probably finishes him in the second round. If
7:44
not, then I think he finishes them in the third. But he could
7:46
put up a lot of work in those two rounds against a guest Gazyev.
7:50
But at the same time, I'm not completely sold on Ghazzy. If I
7:54
think Buddett could win in the first round, so I like him, especially
7:58
if he's going overlooked by the field. I like him a lot at eighty
8:01
four hundred. However, if Ghaziev is just the real deal and he is
8:05
able to knock this guy out or get him to the ground and start landing
8:09
ground and pound, He's gonna score well with a first round finish. So
8:13
I'm gonna be on both sides. It's kind of one where I'm gonna let
8:16
the solver take over, but I will make sure that Boudet is a higher
8:20
projection than Gaziev online, and I've been picking him to win. I think
8:24
with the line moving in Gaziel's favor, that will make Bude lower owned,
8:30
and I think at this point he's kind of a contrarian play, where on
8:35
other cards he should be pretty popular. I would think, yeah, so
8:39
I'm looking we don't have the ownership up yet on the site. You do
8:43
have it on I'm looking at it right now. It's not on the site
8:46
for everyone to look at. You have him because Andre Feeley, who were
8:48
about to talk about one hundred more to gear Uhin Beckoff one hundred less,
8:54
and then it's the Pentosius Leons of the world that will definitely be more popular.
8:58
You have Budai higher than phey and to Gear right now. Of course
9:03
there has been a little late line movement. Do you think that'll stay?
9:05
Right now? You have twenty seven percent Budae, nineteen percent uh Gazevee,
9:11
and then you have like fifteen percent Pheely. I think the Philly Budai will
9:15
be closer. I think Gazevee might even be a little higher. But again
9:20
I say this every time as a disclaimer. I think a lot of things,
9:22
and Marley has been a lot more right than I have with ownership on
9:26
a lot of these weeks. So that's why I'm bringing it up, because
9:28
that's pretty if he's twenty seven percent Boude and Gazev's nineteen. I'm on Gazee.
9:33
There's no There's no doubt about that. But at time, I feel
9:35
like I'm probably gonna middle that out and just kind of make them both closer
9:39
to like twenty to twenty three percent something like that. But either way,
9:43
I still probably want to be overweight to both sides. But if I'm just
9:46
throwing out numbers right now, I could see me having fifty percent Boudet and
9:50
thirty percent Ghazio. Yeah, I like it. I think I'm gonna be
9:54
on the Budaie side. I think he comes in like closer to the twenties
9:58
Gazelle, maybe low twenties too. I think Pheelly eats into that a little
10:01
bit. But I mean low level heavyweights with cardio problems on one side and
10:05
one guy that has a lot of first round finishes that want to bring it
10:09
to the mat. I mean, it looks like a recipe for a big
10:11
boy score. And again, in between those two five rounders, if you
10:16
do if you have the money for Pantosia or something and you fade, I
10:18
mean I would not We're not really recommending he fade in that fight. But
10:22
again, if you go something like Pantosia, take him out and you play
10:24
Buddai. Right there, you could be looking at like a forty eight chop
10:28
down to solo ship or something like that. So little things you always have
10:31
to think of, even more so now at twelve fights instead of fourteen.
10:35
Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, talking Andre Pheley,
10:39
absolute banger here, Andre Pheeley taking on Lucas al Mada eighty five hundred Phey
10:43
seventy seven hundred Lucas Almeida. Checking out the odds, Phielly minus one sixty,
10:48
I'll made a plus one forty on the way back. This fight is
10:52
minus one ninety to finish Philly plus one eighty, I'll made a plus one
10:58
sixty five. So the I guess I don't even know how rare it is.
11:01
I always say they're rare. But the dog having the better inside the
11:03
distance prop than the favorite very slight here. This flight was giving me problems.
11:11
But the more I thought about it's I gotta be on the Andre Phey
11:15
side. He just has way more pass to win. But well, do
11:18
you think he's gonna put on the wrestling shoes? Is what I'm gonna bring
11:20
it to you because if not, I mean I think it is a dogg
11:22
or pass. Probably. I think I'll made them might have a little more
11:24
power. It'd be a banger on the feet, no doubt about that.
11:28
But the takedowns and what Sabatini. Sabatini and Phey aren't even close to the
11:33
same world when it comes to wrestling and stuff like that. But man,
11:35
I'll Mada just look that bad on the match. I feel like takedowns could
11:39
be free if Peely wants it. I'm on the Pheelly side here, but
11:43
I will have some i'l maida because if it is on the feet, he's
11:46
a banger on the feed. He it's hard, So that's how I see
11:50
it. I'm on the Peey side though, what about you? Yeah?
11:52
I like Pheey as well, and I feel like one of the first two
11:54
that I've heard all week, even picking him, Almeida has been a really
11:58
pot underdog from what I have heard this week, and I feel like that
12:01
probably follows on DraftKings as well. He's got one hundred percent finish rate.
12:07
He's just coming off a knockout, well not his last fight, but two
12:09
fights ago, coming off a big knockout win where he had two knockdowns,
12:13
and I mean he probably has a maybe I don't know if he has a
12:18
striking edge or not, but I would say he's probably more dangerous on the
12:20
feet and possibly more durable as well. But at the same time, I
12:24
feel like Pheeley's just as good as a striker. He's not gonna be flat
12:28
footed walking forward like Trezano was, just being there to eat those knockout shots.
12:33
He's gonna be a little bit harder to hit, and I think he's
12:35
a better all around striker than Tresno as well. So Pheeley's live for the
12:39
knockout. Pheelly's live to win, a striking based decision, But at the
12:41
same time, he should look to wrestle here. That's his easiest path to
12:46
victory. That says less at least damage path to victory, And the older
12:50
these guys get, the more they smarten up, I think he will go
12:54
in there. He's training with Darren Elkins. Who better to train with than
12:58
that guy if you're looking to take the fight to the ground. So I
13:01
like Peelly in this one, and I do think he goes overlooked because how
13:05
mad it is so popular this week. So if Phelly does look to strike
13:09
here. He's gonna need a knockout to have any chance at paying off eighty
13:11
five hundred dollars. But if he wins a decision, mixes in a little
13:16
bit of wrestling each round, he could score ten x or more there.
13:20
But I think he could get a submission in any round. It's just that
13:22
I would be worried about a striking match, and if it is a fifteen
13:28
minute striking match, not only does he have a chance of losing, that's
13:30
what puts al Mada in play, but he just won't score enough to pay
13:33
off an eighty five hundred dollars salary. He's not gonna be high volume enough,
13:37
so we really do need him to wrestle here, but I think he's
13:39
gonna be low and so I'll get some leverage. Yeah, No, I'm
13:43
with you, because again at Pantosia is one hundred more Kobe Covington and Leon
13:46
are last. Like we just talked about that Boudai fight, which I don't
13:50
think is Gonnat too much into Pheely, But he's just in between in that
13:54
range sandwich between the two five rounders, I mean minus one sixty minus one
13:58
seventy, depending where you look. Yeah, I think I think you will
14:01
be relatively low owned for a card like this. And like you said,
14:05
I'm not confident Almeida is the better striker by any means. I feel he's
14:07
been in the USC for a minute now, fought way better competition Lucas Almeida.
14:13
I think he can mix it in. I'm always a big Andre Touchy
14:16
Pheeley guy, though, but yeah, give me Phelly in this one,
14:18
mixing takedowns and yeah, if I agree with you, if it's fifteen minutes
14:22
on the feet, man, it ain't gonna score well unless one guy the
14:26
three knockdowns or something like that. But I think he does mix it,
14:31
mixing takedowns and get to win in this one. So phelly' is my pick.
14:33
Phelly is your pick. Only a Dona left to way in rest made
14:37
Waite already awesome. Thanks for letting us know. Ross so just al Donna
14:41
left who I don't care at all, but please keep that fight on the
14:43
card at least get it to the next fight on the night to gear Uhin
14:48
Beckuff taking on Cody Durden eighty three hundred Uhlin Beckoff seventy nine hundred Cody Durden
14:54
looking at the odds in this one, very similar to the last fight.
14:56
Uhlin Beckoff minus one sixty three Cody Dirton plus one forty three. This fight
15:01
is plus one seventy to finish Uhlin Becka plus two forty five Cody Durdin plus
15:07
five twenty five. Getting all these mid tier fights out of the way again,
15:11
I think this fight's pretty low owned because sandwiching between the two five rounders
15:18
favor to go the distance. Pretty tough for me to make a pick on
15:22
this one man two primary wrestlers. I'll let you take this one because this
15:26
is one of the fights I'm still struggling with. Yeah, that's another one
15:28
where I've all week I've heard people picking Dirden, which worries me actually because
15:33
I'm one of them. I do like him as an underdog in this one.
15:37
I think this is really close to a fifty to fifty fight where Ulan
15:39
Beckov. I would probably give him the slight striking edge, but volume wise,
15:43
it'll probably be really close, and I don't expect a fifteen minute striking
15:48
match. Both these guys really prefer to grapple, and that's what I like
15:50
from Dirden. It's just his his work rate, He's going to be pushing
15:54
forward the whole time. He'll try and attempt ten plus twenty takedowns if he
15:58
needs to. And when Durden wins, he is averaging one hundred DraftKings points
16:06
and his wins, and as an underdog, if he gets anywhere near one
16:08
hundred points, he's gonna be on that optimal lineup. But at the same
16:12
time, I do think he's gonna be pretty owned, because all week long
16:15
I've heard nothing but people picking him, and that is what I think puts
16:19
ulan Bekov in play. Not only do I think he's a little bit more
16:22
skilled of a striker, but he's probably the more dangerous grappler as well,
16:26
and he has wrestling in his in his abilities too, So I think ulan
16:30
Bekov is kind of a pivot away from some of these other more chalky plays
16:34
and if it does, if he does win, he probably kills off twenty
16:37
five, maybe even thirty percent of the field picking Dirden and I have ulan
16:44
Bekov like, I don't know about half his owned as Dirden, but as
16:47
one of the lower owned plays on the card, I think he does make
16:51
some sense. But if you told me that these guys are both gonna be
16:53
the same ownership, or if you told me Ulan Bekhov is gonna be higher
16:56
on I'm completely out on him. Really. Just the fact that I think
17:00
he's gonna be low owned and he could win this fight anywhere. That puts
17:03
me a little bit on him. But I'm gonna pick Dirden to win two
17:07
rounds just by being the more active wrestler in this one probably comes down to
17:11
a split decision, and I always just want the underdog if if I think
17:15
if it's gonna be a split decision, how much. Yeah, this is
17:18
tough for me because the four hundred, it's only four hundred dollars, and
17:22
you do have a minus one sixty favorite. But I like, I've heard
17:25
so many people on Cody Dirten. Cody keeps cashing his dogs, putting up
17:29
big scores uhin backup, Like, so everything makes sense why people want to
17:33
go that way, And I think your ownership probably is right. We have
17:36
Cody Dirton at twenty eight, Uhlin Beckov at sixteen. And if that's the
17:41
case right now, like I already know my answer, I'm gonna be playing.
17:42
I'll be way more on the Ullin Backoffs side than Cody Durton. It's
17:45
not even It's not even close for me, so I don't even have to
17:48
worry about trying to break down the fight even more. Cody loves shooting for
17:52
takedowns. Uhm, Beck's got a nasty e A team. I do think
17:55
ullum Beck's probably the better striker too. But what Cody has and I don't
17:59
think back Off has, is just the ten plus takedown upside and just absolutely
18:03
nuke in the slate. What do you think? So you think it goes
18:07
to decision, you think it's gonna be close, and you have Cody but
18:11
at twenty eight percent, and you if it goes to decision, he's twenty
18:15
eight percent, Like what are you doing with him ownership wise? You think
18:18
close to the field jail. I think I'm just gonna be able to narrow
18:22
down my player pool enough where it's going to force me to have forty plus
18:26
percent in miamimm so I'll be overweight still on the Dirdin side, but I
18:33
think I would probably avoid Ulan Beckov with like my single entry. But if
18:38
I'm handbuilding twenty lineups, I'm probably mixing him in there. I'll probably at
18:41
the same time, make my full my favorite ULAANBCKV lineup, and then just
18:47
transfer him out for Cody Durton, leave the four hundred dollars on the table.
18:51
I think that's the way you could just build this week is just put
18:53
x out Dirden, put in Uhlan Bekov, and your solver run one hundred
18:59
and fifty, and then go to DraftKings and then player swap ouh On Beck
19:02
out for Durden, and then that just kind of makes you contrry and leaving
19:04
at least four hundred dollars. Uh So, I don't even I don't exactly
19:07
know how I'm gonna get different. I think Pheeley's one way to do it.
19:11
I'm hoping Budaie is another one. I might have another one or two
19:15
on the card that I'm interested in. But Cody's just some chalk I think
19:18
I have to eat this week. No, I think that's a We talk
19:19
about it a lot on this show, but I think that's sharp. Like
19:22
if you're you can eat chalk, I mean chalk, use chalk for a
19:26
reason, and there's some chalk that usually ends up on the winner. You
19:29
just have to get different in some spots. Or roster construction. Yeah,
19:33
you plug in uh and beck off, take him out, go to Durden
19:36
four hundred right there. I think you can do that multiple fights on this
19:38
card. I mean we've already talked that bou Dai Gazia fight, all right,
19:42
drop down from eighty five hundred Budai or eighty four hundred, leave that
19:47
six hundred play Gazee. It's almost a coin flip easy right there, Peely
19:52
all Meida, even though we liked Pheelly, plug in the lineup at Phey,
19:55
take Philly out, go to all Meida, leave seven hundred or whatever
19:57
it is. I mean, you're again. We always talk about when you
20:00
win how much you win. Doing little things like that can take you from
20:03
a massive chop. Just saw an NFL at yesterday. Was it one hundred
20:08
two ways for seventy four hundred? However, there was a solo shipper that
20:11
needed East and Stick five hundred thousand dollars that just missed out. It was
20:17
on the last I don't know if it was a mere white rush or whatever
20:18
it was, but I mean, come on now, if you look at
20:22
it, is that lineup gonna outscore? I forget exactly what one v one
20:26
or whatever is, but seven thousand dollars or five hundred thousand dollars, it
20:30
doesn't have that percent of a chance that that's gonna be optimal more than that
20:34
same thing here Cordy dirt and uh and back of So definitely leave salary.
20:38
That's how I try and think of it. MMA. It's more of a
20:41
game theory thing than anything. Some of the best players, I mean some
20:45
of the best DFS players in the world know nothing about sports, especially in
20:48
a sport like MMA and Showdown and stuff like that, because a lot of
20:51
people it's when you win, how much do you win with only six bos
20:55
to choose from a lot more game theory and stuff like that. What's going
20:59
on, samar better late than never. Hey, you're in. We appreciate
21:02
that. Hit that like button while you're at it. Appreciate that as well.
21:06
Let's keep it rolling, Big Marley. Next fight on the card,
21:10
Dustin Jacoby taking on Alonzo Menifield. Jacoby ninety two hundred or ninety one hundred.
21:15
Excuse me, Alonzo Menifield seventy one hundred. Looking at the odds,
21:19
Jacoby minus two eighty Alonzo plus two forty. This fight's minus one fifty to
21:25
finish Jacoby plus one forty, Alonzo Menifield plus three hundred. Looking at what
21:30
we have for the ownership in this one, Jacoby twenty one percent, Alonzo
21:34
Menifield fourteen percent. I agree with that, and I also have this fight
21:40
tagged is underweight at that ownership, though I don't know. Maybe I'll be
21:45
around the field like at the end of the day, I think Jacoby wins,
21:48
but I think he more than likely probably needs a first round knockout,
21:52
and he's plus four hundred to do so. I think he's gonna be worried
21:55
a little bit about Alonzo's power coming on the way back, but just think
21:57
he's a better kickboxing man in those light kicks, use that distance, use
22:02
that jab. I'm on Jacoby here, But in terms of the nine K
22:06
the upside, I don't know, man, if he's gonna be that low
22:08
owned, I guess in that nine K range, maybe I have a little
22:11
more interest than I initially thought. But I'm on Jacoby here, had this
22:15
fight tagged his underway, But maybe I have a little more Jacoby interests at
22:18
this ownership than I initially did coming in what about you, Yeah, I'm
22:22
picking Jacoby. I just think he's the much more skilled striker, probably triplesman
22:26
Field up on strikes, but at ninety one hundred dollars, it's knockout or
22:30
bust. I think his ceiling would be ten x in the decision. I'd
22:34
be pretty shocked to see him go over ten x in the decision here.
22:38
But he does have knockout potential. It's just that how late is that knockout
22:42
gonna come? If it comes in the third round, is it too late?
22:45
So I think Jacoby is just best used as a clear pivot away from
22:49
Patty and Shavkat, who are gonna be much higher owned. So I do
22:56
have Jacoby interest because I think he's live for that that tco I'm seeing plus
23:00
one ten to plus one forty. I mean that that looks pretty good to
23:06
me. And if he's gonna be half his own as those other guys,
23:08
I think he makes sense up there. And then Minifield, I think he's
23:11
ko or bust to even win the fight. I think he could land a
23:15
couple of takedowns throughout the fight, but I don't see him controlling Jacoby long
23:19
enough to win rounds. Uh So it would be more land a couple of
23:23
takedowns. That's great, but then if you put a knockout up, you're
23:26
on the optimal lineup at seventy one hundred. So he's he's an underdog who
23:30
I don't really see winning, but if he does win, it's gonna be
23:33
a high scoring knockout. So the ceiling alone is gonna put me on some
23:37
minifield I put in my notes that I can see me getting fifteen to twenty
23:42
five percent of either side of this fight. I'd be fine with either of
23:47
them in my single entry, but it's another one where I'll probably let the
23:49
solver or control it for me, and I'll make sure I don't have like
23:52
too much of it. But at the same time, I think this is
23:56
a really good way to get away from chalky lineups. Yeah, you and
24:00
I see this fight the same. I mean a lonzo Menifields are grown ass,
24:03
man. You just look at that dude. He's huge. Dustin Jacoby's
24:07
a big boy himself. This fight's minus one fifty to finish. Then you
24:11
go and look at the ownership and it looks to be one of the lowest
24:12
own fights on the card. So that's why I'm leaving them both in my
24:17
pool, and it's yeah, if I love all my exposures for the rest
24:19
of the fighters, if I've thirty five percent Jacoby and I still love everything,
24:23
I'm good with it. Five ten percent Jacoby and I love everything,
24:26
I'm good with it. Mister Grayfruit, what's up? He likes Alonzo?
24:30
Menifield you like Alonzo, he's gonna be pretty low owned. Two definitely does
24:33
have that Ko upside. And again, if I end up like twenty five
24:37
percent Alonzo and love everything, I don't know, I'd probably roll with it,
24:41
even though I don't love it. But because of the ownership on this
24:44
fight, if it is optimal, there's a lot better chance that there's gonna
24:48
be less duplicates because this is one of the lowest owned fights on the card.
24:52
I'm on Jacoby, and because of the ownership, I have a little
24:55
more interest than I initially did. But I was picking Jacoby by decision,
24:57
and like, if that's the case, he's probably not going to be optimal.
25:00
But that's what the field thinks too, And that's really what I care
25:03
most about, is what the field's doing how to leverage off of that.
25:07
So give me Dustin Jacoby in this one, it will be a low own
25:11
fight. Keep it rolling. Next fight on the card Casey O'Neil arian O
25:15
Lipski eighty seven hundred, Casey O'Neil seventy five hundred for Lipski. O'Neil is
25:19
minus one eighty five Lipski plus one sixty. This fight is plus one fifty
25:26
to finish Casey O'Neil plus one ninety Lipski plus six twenty five inside the distance.
25:32
Looking at what we have ownership, Casey O'Neil thirty seven percent, Lipski
25:37
is or fourteen percent, and again ownership will change. It's not even on
25:41
the site right now. If it's updated, you'll always see the time stamps
25:45
for that. This fight is supposed to go the distance, but it's not.
25:49
It's not faking anyone out with Casey O'Neill's ownership. It looks like when
25:53
she does win, man does she score well. She lands like eight point
25:57
seven seven significant strikes permits it one point ninety six takedowns per fifteen in her
26:03
four wins one forty one, ten, one thirty one and one twenty two
26:07
draft kings points. Her only loss scored fifty five and landed one hundred and
26:12
thirty seven significant strikes. I mean, just sign me up for this fight,
26:18
Casey O'Neil. I wanted to be on the The ownership's confused me.
26:21
I'm picking Casey O'Neil. It's woman's mma, though, which always leads me
26:23
back to dogger pass and at this ownership like, I'll probably be more overweight
26:29
to Lipski than I will Casey O'Neil, and it's I like Casey O'Neill in
26:33
this fight. I love her upside, but I just love any fight she's
26:36
in because she's gonna push the pace and make someone score well. Seventy four
26:41
hundred Lipski man, if she wins, like I don't, I don't know
26:44
how she doesn't score well or seventy five hundred. Excuse me, I just
26:47
don't know how she doesn't score well. Because Casey O'Neil, I think,
26:49
is gonna force her to throw some strikes, reversals, whatever it may be.
26:52
I'm on Casey train because I do think she can get the takedown,
26:56
and when she's on the mat, I think it's levels above. I think
27:00
striking's really close. Though. I love this fight even at Casey chalk.
27:03
I'm gonna have some because when she does win, it's a big boy,
27:07
but she's the pick. I might have more Lipski though, to the field
27:10
that at fourteen percent compared to thirty seven. What about you? Yeah?
27:14
I like this fight a good amount, And when I was just trying to
27:18
break it down who I think is gonna win, I was kind of going
27:19
back and forth, which usually puts me on the underdog. I feel like
27:23
O'Neil is the much higher volume striker in this one. She landed two hundred
27:29
and thirty significant strikes in a three round fight. Again, it was against
27:32
Rock sand Mataferry. But at the same time, Lipsky's not landing two hundred
27:34
and thirty significant strikes against anybody. That's just not her style at all.
27:38
She's more looking to kind of dance around the cage and throw solid, technical,
27:44
powerful shots. She is the better striker all around here, the more
27:47
powerful striker too, but she's less durable. She's gonna be lower volume.
27:52
So I feel like a striking match is probably pretty close with these two,
27:56
and O'Neil could take it based on volume alone, But it's the takedown I
28:00
think Lipsky off her back is so not impressive, and O'Neill is so aggressive
28:04
that for DraftKings, I really like O'Neill. She does average one hundred and
28:08
twenty five DraftKings points in her UFC wins, and she has that kind of
28:12
ceiling here as well. Just load up on your volume. If it's close,
28:15
look for a takedown, stay in top control, throw a bunch of
28:18
wild punches on the ground. Maybe she could even finish the fight on the
28:22
ground. So I definitely like O'Neil on DraftKings. I think that's the best
28:26
way to get any kind of investment in O'Neil this week, rather than a
28:30
bet on her. But I'll be loading up on her. But at the
28:33
same time, Lipsky I don't see getting much ownership. She could win this
28:37
fight on the feet even if she wins a decision. I think the aggressiveness
28:41
from O'Neill will help her output as well, where she probably scores over ten
28:45
X in a decision. But she's live for a knockout just based on how
28:49
sloppy O'Neil can be, how just not worried about getting it she is.
28:55
I think Lipsky's in play for her knockout here. Break the slate with one
28:57
hundred points, so I want to be pretty heavy on this fight. I'll
29:02
have more exposure to O'Neill, but I might have more leverage on Lipski.
29:08
Yeah, that's all I'm looking at it too. Casey O'Neal is supposed to
29:12
fight Vivian Rugio a couple months ago, had to pull out with a broken
29:15
nose. I mean, obviously it's probably healed, but you're talking about maybe
29:19
a knockout for Lipski at this big plus number. Trying to get a trying
29:25
to have full reasons why that could happen, jabber up to death. Casey
29:30
o'neils is pressure. Like you said, I don't really care about what numbers
29:33
it shows for Lipski, significant strikes per minute, whatever it may be,
29:36
because the pace Casey's gonna push is going to force her to do something that
29:40
like Kennerferma Land at one hundred and forty five significant strikes, you don't see
29:44
that very often. So yeah, great fight to target. I think you
29:47
said. I couldn't said any better. At the end, I'll probably have
29:49
more Casey O'Neil. I'll probably be more overweight, have more leverage to Lipski.
29:56
Keep it rolling. Next fight on the car Cody gyar Brandt taking on
29:59
Brian hell Her nine thousand for Cody seven thousand, seventy two hundred, Man,
30:03
I keep getting these wrong, seventy two hundred for Kellerher. Cody is
30:07
minus one seventy eight all the way to minus two hundred. Again, I'm
30:11
looking at fight odds dot io bet online is where I'm pulling or what odds
30:15
I'm saying. However, MMA, like all sports, but especially MMA,
30:19
huge price discrepancies across multiple different books, So always price shop if you bet,
30:26
especially in MMA. Minus one seventy for Cody, plus one fifty three
30:30
for Kellerher. This fight's minus one fifty five to finish Cody plus one forty
30:33
five Kellerher plus two seventy. What we have for ownership in this fight when
30:40
we pull it up quick. We have Cody at thirteen percent, one of
30:42
the lowest on the card, and we have Kellher at fourteen percent. I
30:48
agree with you. I think this fight is gonna be one of the lowest
30:49
owned on the card. I can't get to Cody, man, but you
30:53
look at that inside the distance prop and you look at the ownership, I
30:56
totally get it. I'll just be going to dustinbi when I am getting different
31:00
right in that range. I mean, man, that last fighting as Trevin
31:03
Jones, like one of the worst fights I've ever seen, wasn't a tendance
31:07
for it was the awful, awful, awful. I think he probably needs
31:11
a first round knockout or just wrestle for fifteen minutes. Not the craziest thing.
31:15
I mean, I'm not gonna call you crazy for playing one of the
31:18
lowest owned fighters at solid inside the distance prop. It's not for me though,
31:23
dog. I don't even know if a dog or pass because I think
31:26
Cody wins this fight. But I have more interested in Keller Heer in terms
31:30
of DFS plus two seventy inside the distance is nice. He has some power
31:34
and you hope you can If Cody does shoot for takedowns, he's gonna be
31:37
looking for that Guia team which can break the late. So yeah, I'll
31:41
have more kell of her. No Cody in twenty and below. What about
31:44
you? Yeah, I'm gonna x out Cody with one hundred and fifty.
31:48
I mean, it's knockout or bust for first round knockout or bust for Cody
31:52
at nine K. I do think he is probably the more powerful striker.
31:57
I think he's the more skilled boxer. I think he's probably the better wrestler
32:00
as well. But it's real hard to win fights when you don't throw punches
32:05
and you land one takedown per fifteen minutes. So I just have no faith
32:10
in Cody. I feel like he's fallen off a lot, and at nine
32:15
k's just one of the easier phades we've seen in a while in my opinion.
32:20
So with one hundred and fifty, I will have zero Cody garbrandt.
32:23
If he goes out there knocks this guy out in the first minute, I'm
32:25
probably not buying the pay per view, to be honest with you, but
32:30
I don't think that'll happen. I do like the keller Her side of this
32:34
when I think maybe he's not as skilled as a striker, but he could
32:37
be higher volume, he could be the one pushing forward. He can have
32:39
just as much power too, and I think Garbrand's chin could be toast.
32:43
So I think keller HER's in play for a knockout. I think he's in
32:45
play for a decision. You mentioned the guillotine. I think he's very in
32:49
play for a guillotine as well. I think he's the more dangerous grappler of
32:52
the two. So yeah, this is gonna be keller Her or pass For
32:54
me. My worry is that it's a fifteen minute striking match and keller Her
33:00
scores fifty points in a decision win. I mean, that's not going to
33:04
get it done. So I'm not gonna have a lot of keller Her,
33:07
but I will have more than the field, and I'll have zero Cody Linums.
33:10
Yeah, I'm with you, Like I don't love keller Her, but
33:14
I'm looking at the ownership like right around fifteen percent, I know I'm gonna
33:17
be playing no Cody, Like at the end of the day, there's only
33:21
so many dogs like I like Lipski more, of course dirt and that's a
33:24
whole different price tag, but I'll have some. I like the Lipski side
33:28
a lot more though, right in that same price range. Cody's china concern
33:31
always the concern. Yeah, I mean, Brian, he can land one
33:35
and Cody can go to sleep, for sure. But I mean we saw
33:37
with Shannon Ross everyone was worried about his chin, rightfully so, and the
33:40
chin held up, the body didn't hold up but yeah, I always worried
33:45
about the chin. I don't think Keller her not. I'm not picking Keller
33:49
by knockout. I think Cody minds his p's and q's the way fast.
33:52
The big difference in this one for me is just speed. Like Keller's slowing
33:57
plotting hasn't fought for a little bit. Cody's so fast at they click.
34:00
He has all those advantages. The chin is scary and then the guillotine scary.
34:06
He just doesn't do enough for me in this in this nine k range
34:08
though, So yeah, some kalaher not a fight I like too much.
34:13
Next fight on the card again, appreciate ever hanging out. What a weekend
34:15
we have in store, NFL, NBA, of course, MMA, NHL
34:21
as well. Everything you got everything going on, we got you covered at
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chipinnation dot com. Head over, weekly, monthly, six month, and
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annual packages all come with discord except the weekly package. Next fight on the
34:34
card Arena A Donna taking on Carol Hosa eighty eight hundred al Donna seventy four
34:38
hundred for Hosa. Looking at the odds, al Donna minus one seventy one
34:44
Hosa plus one forty five plus two forty this fight is to finish the most
34:49
likely to go the distance on the card al Dona plus two to twenty five
34:52
inside the distance Hosa plus fourteen hundred. Looking at the or the ownership we
34:58
have, we have all Dona eighteen percent, hostas sixteen percent. Wouldn't even
35:02
be surprised if Aldonna was a little lower owned than that. But she definitely
35:06
will be down there. I mean I can't get to all Donna. That
35:08
fight against Nunia's was awful. Granted it was a man in Nuniez, but
35:13
she just did not do jack squat Hosa. I mean, she's the opposite.
35:16
I don't think she's very good, but she actually does something five point
35:21
four to three significant strikes per minute, one point three to eight takedowns per
35:24
fifteen. I think she's probably the more active fighter, probably goes the decision.
35:30
It's probably gonna probably be split or very close. So yeah, I
35:32
mean, give me the fourteen hundred savings, give me the dog. Hopefully
35:36
she can mix in takedowns. I mean, Chisan was having a lot of
35:38
success against al Donna in top control besides before the kickoff, So yeah,
35:45
it's definitely hosts her past for me. What about you, Yeah, I
35:49
think it's gonna be a close fight, probably goes to a split decision,
35:52
So whoever has the plus next to their name is the one who I'm picking.
35:54
I don't even care what their name is, to be honest with you,
35:57
but in this case, it's Karro Rosa on DraftKings. I really think
36:00
it's an easy Rosa or Pass on paper. But at the same time,
36:05
this is probably gonna be a pretty high volume fight. Either one of them
36:07
could land takedowns well spend time in top control. So I think I'm okay
36:13
with some aw Donna exposure because she should be really low owned on this slate.
36:16
But it's just that she's gonna be low owned that puts me on her.
36:20
If she's gonna be twenty percent, I would just x her out of
36:22
my player pool, even with one fifty. But I think she could go
36:25
out there score ninety points. Maybe she could even knock Rosa out. She
36:30
does have some good striking, clean striking, but it's just that it's probably
36:36
gonna be a really close striking match because Rosa has high volume as well.
36:39
I think Rosa's probably more likely to land the takedowns and spend time in top
36:44
control too, So at seventy four hundred, Rosa's gonna have a much easier
36:49
time paying off that price tag. I think she's a good cash gameplay at
36:52
that price with the high floor, but she could go out there if we
36:55
see the volume that we saw in her first couple fights in the UFC,
37:00
she could put up one hundred and ten plus points and I'll win here,
37:02
and she shouldn't be too owned either. So I am going to get a
37:07
leverage to the Rosa side, But al Dona will probably be in my lineups
37:12
to have like Colby and Ghazyev and these other and Dirting as my underdog something
37:17
like that, just as of my way to get different in that lineup.
37:22
But that's the only thing that interests me in aw Don is that it probably
37:24
is a high volume fight. She's live to win. Of course she's the
37:28
favorite, but I just have a hard time seeing her I'll score that eighty
37:30
eight hundred dollars price tag. No, I mean that may it makes sense.
37:35
Maybe in my one to fifty, I'll keep her. One fifty,
37:38
I'll probably keep her, And if I play fifty, maybe you got me
37:42
on a little bit, like yeah, she does have hands like Eddie saying
37:45
she does train with gross so like she fought a man in Nuniez before that
37:47
she was doing fine. It's just idiot hundred and who she's around. Pantoja's
37:52
right below. Like the range is absolutely loaded plus two twenty five inside.
37:57
The distance isn't bad though, So you look at the ownership, look at
38:00
the props. If you are eating chalk, I don't think it's the craziest
38:02
thing. I probably won't get there in twenty and below. I'll get some
38:06
Hosta. Don't even love Hosa though. It's really she's active fighter. She
38:09
can throw some volume, maybe mixing a takedown or something. I don't love
38:15
this fight too much though, but it's Hosta passed for me, dogg or
38:16
pass for me. Get to the next fight on the card right in that
38:21
same range, and again I prefer I definitely prefer Bryce Mitchell at eighty nine
38:25
hundred overall down at eighty eight hundred. But it's Bryce Mitchell Josh Emmett eighty
38:30
nine hundred seventy three hundred. Bryce is minus two to twenty five. Emmett
38:36
is plus one ninety. Looking at the odds, this is plus one twenty
38:38
five to finish. Bryce is plus two sixty Emmett plus three fifteen. It's
38:45
easy for me. My answer in sports bett and betting and in DFS is
38:49
different. Betting easy dog or pass for me, Josh Emmett all day,
38:53
I can't lay minus two thirty on Bryce DFS. I prefer Bryce because when
38:59
he he's gonna score well. When Josh wins, I mean at this price,
39:04
take any win, you take it. But just say he gets like
39:07
a third round knockout or something like that, and he gets control for the
39:09
first round or whatever it may be. You could see like a sixty point
39:14
something third round knockout because he's on his back most of the first couple rounds
39:17
and he lands won. I'll throw it to you in this one, big
39:21
Marley, I mean obviously clash of styles. Grappler Mitchell striker Josh Emmett.
39:25
Iman has a background kind of been wrestling, I say, kind of like
39:29
we never see it, but we see it more on the defensive wrestling.
39:31
Only two people really had success taking him down to Poria Holtzmann back in the
39:36
day twenty sixteen. Ken Bryce take him down because if not, man,
39:38
I think he's gonna get his ears. Boxing yeah, I think he can.
39:44
It's probably a retirement fight for Josh Emmitt. Those rarely ever go well.
39:47
He has been looking worse and worse lately and talking about retirement more and
39:51
more, feels like. And he does have pretty poor takedown defense, like
39:54
forty six forty nine percent takedown defense. And this this isn't gonna be a
40:00
fifteen minute striking match. He should win a fifteen minute striking match. If
40:05
that were the case, he wouldn't score well. I mean, he scored
40:07
seventy three points in a five round win. That's just not gonna interest me
40:13
at all. But there was a period where he was knocking down every single
40:16
person he was facing, and that's what puts him in play here. He
40:20
could knock get Bryce out in the first round. If Bryce can't get those
40:23
takedowns, he's probably in trouble and him it's gonna knock him out at some
40:27
point. So that's what puts em in play. Yeah, I just see
40:30
Bryce getting those takedowns, and once he gets them, I don't think,
40:34
hm, it's getting up. He's either gonna grind out the rest of the
40:37
round or he's gonna submit him. Either one of those. I think probably
40:40
puts up a big score for Bryce. He's the one with more ways to
40:45
hit his ceiling, more likely to hit his ceiling, more left in the
40:47
sport. Give me Mitchell. I will be overweight to Mitchell, but at
40:52
the same time, I probably want twenty percent or so. I want to
40:54
be around the field on him, and I definitely don't want to get burned
40:57
with a fifty second knockout by mt because it wouldn't shock me at all.
41:01
Uh So I'll probably just match the field or so on him. Yeah,
41:07
I'm picking I'm picking Josh Emmetts. I Like you said, though, the
41:09
ceiling is way higher for Bryce, which is why he's I think he's a
41:14
better DFS play. But then you look at the ownership. Right now we
41:16
have forty one percent Bryce Mitchell, fifteen percent Josh Emmett. So yeah,
41:22
I mean he's the better DFS play in a vacuum because of that, but
41:24
at that ownership, it's yeah, it's it's emant for me now. I
41:28
mean it was evant for me anyway, and I was gonna have I was
41:30
gonna be overweight. Since I'm picking the dog to win, I'm picking him
41:34
to knock out Bryce Mitchell. But I mean, like I said, a
41:37
third round knockout, he still could not be optimal. And that's not the
41:39
craziest thing. Whereas Bryce when he does, like even the decision win for
41:44
Bryce puts up one hundred and both his decision wins. But at forty one
41:46
percent, man, yeah, I'll probably come down actually on that forty one
41:51
percent. Just when he said that, I was like, oh, that
41:52
seems higher than I thought. Yeah, I've probably dropped that, like at
41:54
least five percent or so thirty five baby sounds something like that. Again,
42:00
all this all ownership will be up, projections will be up. Marley just
42:05
has it on the Google Dot that I'm looking at. I'm saying it out
42:07
loud. Yeah, I'm on Emmett Bryce, I'll have some I mean,
42:12
he's like, I'll probably be underweight to Bryce. I'll probably end up there,
42:15
But he's not. He's like Cody Durton, like just because like I
42:17
like the other side for the ownership and stuff. Bryce and Drten have that
42:21
one hundred and thirty plus point upside where you don't have him, you're just
42:23
cooked. And I don't want to fade that on a twelve fight card.
42:27
So give me Josh Edmitt throw in this one. Stuff to take downs.
42:30
Put some hands on Bryce Mitchell. Next fight on the card, we got,
42:36
oh yeah, Paddy pimblet Tony Ferguson ninety four hundred, Patty the Bad
42:39
He's sixty eight hundred al KAKUI Tony Ferguson three minus three twenty is Patty,
42:45
which is the second biggest favorite on the card. Tony comes back at plus
42:49
two to seventy s fit's minus one sixty five to finish, minus one thirty
42:53
for Patty, plus six twenty five for Tony. All, I'm gonna say,
42:58
I'm gonna throw it to you because it's a big talk around town.
43:01
Tony went through hell week with David Gollaggins. What does that du blah blah
43:06
blah. All I'm gonna say is I think that's definitely good for Tony because
43:09
any man that can go through that with David Goggins is one badass dude.
43:15
I mean, yeah, he prepared himself to get in a war in an
43:17
octagon. No, does that mean that he's not washed? I don't know,
43:22
man. That Nate DZ fight. I swore him off. I lost
43:24
plenty of cheese on him. The dude, and man in nutony As I
43:28
think would have beat his ass that day. I don't know if that's a
43:30
hot take. I don't know anything. I don't know if it's because I
43:32
lost plenty of cheese, but I was. I can never do I can
43:36
never put money on this dude again. Bobby Green submits him. But man,
43:39
I don't know. Man, I'm a big Goggins guy. I'm a
43:43
big old dads. You put your mind, you can do that. You
43:45
can go through hell Week, Patty the battye. I mean, look at
43:47
who's Tony lost to, and look at the four wins that Patty has.
43:52
I'm still on Patty because I just think Tony's that cooked. I think Patty's
43:57
the better striker, probably the better grappler. But I don't know, Man,
44:00
something something scaring me in this fight. Talk talk talk to me.
44:05
Yeah, Tony's I mean, super impressive to go through Hellwick for sure.
44:08
Dude's about to be forty years old in two months. Uh, and he's
44:13
gonna have Goggins in his corner too. But I mean, what's that gonna
44:15
do? Go, don't be a bitch, Tony. Don't The quarter means
44:22
not. He's probably not even gonna say a word or whatever. That means
44:24
nothing, but the previous thing in your headspace that that means something to me.
44:29
Yeah, I just can't get behind it. I mean I wanted to.
44:31
I saw that and I was like, shit, impressive. I was
44:35
like, and he's like Pimblets damn near minus four hundred. I was like,
44:38
I can maybe get behind Tony here. He could win a striking match.
44:43
I mean, he's gonna be the higher volume striker, he's gonna be
44:45
the faster guy. But then I went and I watched the tape and I
44:47
was like, oh my god, he's not gonna be the faster guy.
44:50
He's sloppier now, he's I don't even know that he can win a striking
44:52
match against Patty Pimblet Gechi ruined his life, man, I don't think again
44:57
with it. I think Patty has advantage on the feet, like look at
45:00
what happened to Luigi Vendramini did. Yeah, and I think he's the more
45:02
powerful striker at this point too, Patty, and I mean, Tony used
45:07
to be a solid wrestler, have dangerous submissions, but he was just flopping
45:14
all around in his last five. It's just so it was so ugly I
45:16
can't get behind it. I'm gonna be on Patty here. I think Patty
45:20
finishes him at some point, but he probably needs to finish him unless he
45:23
plans on wrestling for three rounds, because at ninety four hundred, we need
45:28
him to probably outscore Chaftcut to be on the optimal lineup. I feel like
45:34
he probably should be a little bit lower owned than Chefcop, But at the
45:38
same time, Tony's so washed. Patty's got a lot of hype that I
45:42
put him really close to each other in the ownership, and I kind of
45:46
thought as Patty as a good pivot away from Schaftcott. But if they're both
45:50
going to be super high owned, then it's just whoever I can afford.
45:53
I'm cool with if I need to put him in the lineups. But I
45:55
also don't think that Patty's all must have. He could go out there and
46:00
finish the fight and still score eighty something points here. Uh, But it's
46:05
just the washedness of Ferguson that puts me on Patty here. If this was
46:08
four years ago, Tony's a minus four hundred favorite here, So I'm just
46:15
gonna fay Tony I feel like enough people want him to win where the ownership
46:17
will be there, and I don't want to match it. So I'm gonna
46:21
x him out of my player pool and it's gonna be Pattier pass for me.
46:23
And the higher the Patty ownership gets, the more, I mean,
46:25
the less I like them. Yeah, we have forty six percent Patty,
46:30
nine percent Tony, and we have shot cut at forty seven. I think
46:34
that's right because the three hundred dollars. I think if we had kept the
46:37
fourteen fights that maybe it would be a little more shot cut to Patty,
46:40
because I mean, the more dogs you can choose from, the more dogs
46:44
you expect to come through salaries and't as tight. Now with only twelve,
46:47
I think it is relatively close. I mean Patty's minus won thirty five to
46:51
finish that three hundred savings. I'll probably have more Patty than Shafcot just because
46:55
like any shot cut lineup you can make, you can go drop three hundred
47:00
dollars to Patty and you can get a little different cuts out some chops,
47:05
is how I see it. So I'll probably have more Patty for that reason.
47:07
I think Toty's just completely cooked on the feet, I give it to
47:10
Patty on the mat, I give it to Patty, et cetera. But
47:15
man, I don't know al kakooley that that hello wee thing it was.
47:19
I was like, I'm never even putting a penny on Ferguson. I'm never
47:21
even debating him. I'm never anything. And then I saw the hell week
47:24
things with Goggins, and I was like, phenomenal what everyone else saw too,
47:30
So we'll let them do it. That is so impressive, though,
47:34
that that really really is. But all right, a couple of fights left.
47:37
I'm on the Patty train. Next fight on the card, we have,
47:40
wait, how many fights? Three fights left? Chopcott, Rockmanov,
47:44
Steven, WonderBoy, Thompson ninety seven hundred, Rochmanov sixty five hundred for wonder
47:50
Boy. Looking at the odds, shot Cop biggest favorite on the card,
47:52
minus six hundred plus at a lot of spots, wonder Boy plus four twenty
47:58
five roughly way back minus two twenty for this fight to finish, shot Cut
48:02
minus two thirty five. Inside the distance, wonder Boy plus thirteen hundred,
48:08
and the odds obviously feel wide to me. Wonder Boy's nose slouch as clear
48:13
as day, though the path take WonderBoy down, you don't need to strike
48:15
with the man. If you take him down and your minus two thirty five
48:19
to finish, you're expecting a big boy score ownership, Like you said,
48:22
forty seven percent we have. I think that could be right. If he's
48:25
like fifty three, I wouldn't be surprised. If anything, I would guess
48:30
we'd be lighter on the ownership than heavier. I mean, I'm gonna be
48:35
playing some shot Cut. I'm gonna have no wonder Boy, no real hot
48:37
take. Though, like I said, I'll probably end up underweight to shot
48:40
Cut because I'll have more Paddy, because I can go shotcut in that lineup,
48:45
all right, take him out, leave three hundred, et cetera.
48:47
Like Shotcott and you have two under left in the shop Cut lineup, you
48:51
drop it down to Patty you love five hundred. So that's probably how I'm
48:53
gonna do it on paper, though, Yeah, I mean, is he
48:57
gonna how many take times? Is he gonna wrestle from the get go?
48:59
Do you think? Oh? Man? God? And I wish I knew
49:02
that because if if this is a striking match, who even went? Who
49:06
wins? A fifteen minute striking match, I would I'd be on Wonder Boy
49:10
if you tld me it's fifteen minutes on the Yeah, Marley's dealing with some
49:14
mikes, some mic issues. But if you tell me it's fifteen minutes on
49:16
the feet, yeah you're back, You're good, I'll be on Wonder Boy.
49:20
I mean, yeah, exactly, And I mean he looked great in
49:22
his last fight. He's like forty one years old or something, but he
49:25
landed one hundred and sixty three significant strikes on Kevin Holland, which is an
49:30
impressive feat. So, I mean, I definitely think Thompson's live to win
49:34
if Rochmanov does want to test his striking here, but at the same time,
49:38
like this is your chance to get a title shot, go out there,
49:43
punish this guy on the ground. Rochmanov could definitely hurt him on the
49:45
feet too, It's just that minutes. A minute would be probably go to
49:50
Thompson and then yeah, it's the ground game that's making him a minus six
49:54
hundred and twenty five favor Like, you have to assure me that he's going
49:59
to look for take down from the chump for him to be a minus six
50:00
to twenty five favorite, so I kind of backing him because of that.
50:06
But his inside the distance line is minus two twenty. He's got damn near
50:09
seventy percent inside the distance line. That's what I like a lot more.
50:13
If he does get the fight to the ground, he could hurt Thompson there
50:16
too, or he could just choke him out. Really in any round could
50:21
have some volume leading up to it, So I definitely like him if I
50:24
can afford him, But just like Patty, he's not a must have for
50:28
me if I need the three hundred dollars. I'm absolutely fine going to Patty
50:31
if that gets me up to an underdog that I like more. But I'm
50:35
also gonna have lots of lineups that don't have either one of these guys it
50:37
and just go more mid range. So I'll probably be around field weight on
50:43
both of these guys, I would guess, but I'm not sure. I'm
50:45
just gonna let the solver kind of take over and mix in whatever I can.
50:50
I've had a few fades on the card. I will probably try and
50:52
X out like at least four people, probably if I can of my whole
50:58
one point fifty and just condense my player pooled that way, but I'm not
51:01
gonna have one hundred and fifteen like the whatever twenty five dollars. It's gonna
51:05
be the Mini Max. So yeah, four hundred and fifty, I'd be
51:07
fine losing that. I wouldn't be as ballsy I was if I was Max
51:10
and that twenty five dollars one. But I'm gonna have a ballsy fake coming
51:15
up here soon. I think I know who it is, and I like
51:17
it, but yeah, I'll start. We touched on it earlier in the
51:20
show, but it's important talking point because over the nine k range is so
51:23
weak, Like that's why he likes Shoftcot, but he's not the best in
51:27
a vacuum. And yeah, that's why Paddy and Shofcott are gonna get by
51:30
far the most ownership in the top range because like you look at these other
51:35
people up here. Let me pull it up Jacoby ninety one hundred and a
51:37
lot of concerns of that. Cody garb ain't gonna be low owned. Then
51:40
you got Bryce Mitchell is gonna get some just for the nature of the slates.
51:44
Aldon is gonna be low owned. So yeah, those top six fighters
51:47
right there, there's not too many names you want to click, and there's
51:51
a lot of live dogs that people feel good about on this card with two
51:53
five round fights that are in the mid tier that are easy to get to
51:58
as well. So I do think shotcot Patty by far the most popular in
52:00
the nine K range because it's tough. But yeah, I'm good skipping the
52:05
whole nine K range in some lineups, leaving salary jamming the mid tier and
52:07
stuff like that. Yeah, but I'll be playing some shot cut I'm gonna
52:13
have no wonder Boy like. I just think even if it starts on the
52:15
feet, just say shotcutt has like, all right, I'm gonna test my
52:17
striking and then if it goes bad, then I'll wrestle. I mean,
52:21
I just think he'd get to that point. Like Steve, he's so unorthodox
52:24
with his karate stands. Shot got so much more technical. He hasn't seen
52:29
guys like wonder Boy with this movement and stuff. If it's on the D
52:32
for fifteen, it's gonna score awful, I think. But I just think
52:36
eventually like he's not gonna like what he feels. I don't know, maybe
52:39
he is the better striker. Shot Goots a beast like, I wouldn't be
52:42
that surprised at all if he's the better striker, but I don't know.
52:45
Wonder boy got this far at forty one literally just striking. So yeah,
52:50
or even if he goes out there tests his striking in the first round,
52:52
goes back to his bench, his corners like, what the hell are you
52:55
doing? Take this guy down, and then he starts fighting smart, it's
52:58
probably too late at ninety one hundred dollars. So it's just another reason I
53:02
think we could probably get away from maybe the highest doone guy on the card.
53:07
Yeah, no, I think I'm gonna be underweight. I think so.
53:08
Obviously in a vacuum, he's the best player on the slate, no
53:13
doubt. If if salary was irrelevant, if every ownership was irrelevant, He's
53:16
minus two thirty five to finish. Biggest favorite by far on the card.
53:21
Two fights left, baby Man, two Baying or Banger fights, five rounders.
53:27
Alexander Pantoja, Brandon Royval, Pantojia eighty six hundred, roy Bell seventy
53:31
six hundred looking at the odds minus one ninety Pantoja, plus one sixty five
53:37
for Royval, minus five hundred for this fight, to finish Pantoja minus one
53:42
twenty five, Royvelle plus one ninety Is this an all in fight for you
53:46
one fifty? Are you making the rule at least one of the or not
53:50
at least exactly one of these guys. I don't think you're stacking exactly one
53:53
of these guys in every lineup. It's gonna be very popular before I actually
53:58
throw it to you. Ownership we have in this one Pantosia forty nine percent,
54:02
Royval forty percent. I think that's right. Man. Only eleven percent
54:07
in the field not playing yet. Hey, I'll say they pay the rake.
54:09
I don't know if I'm making a rule, but I'm definitely gonna have
54:12
an what about you? Yeah, I mean I'm probably not gonna make a
54:15
rule, but I do want probably ninety percent or more with this fight.
54:20
I think it'll just be the highest paced fight on the card, whether it's
54:23
a striking match or whether it's a grappling match. The last two, last
54:27
time these two fought, it was just a crazy paced, scrambling match and
54:31
then yeah, it was wild, and then Pantosa submitted him in the second
54:37
round. I believe he scored ninety nine points in that fight scored ninety nine.
54:42
At eighty six hundred, you're gonna have a good chance at the optimal
54:44
lineup. But now he's a champion. They say champions get thirty percent better
54:49
once they get that belt. If he is going to be thirty percent better,
54:52
then I really like him to have the edge everywhere in this fight.
54:55
So I am gonna pick pantosi here. I think he could win by any
54:59
method. He could be the better striker over the course of five rounds.
55:02
I think he's the better wrestler, He's already submitted him once. I think
55:06
he's the better grappler. So I'm gonna be very heavy on Pantosia. I
55:08
will be overweight to him. But if roy Val wins, he's putting up
55:14
ninety plus points, hundred plus points it he'll be on the optimal lineup.
55:16
So I see it being like sixty Pantosia, thirty thirty five percent roy Val,
55:23
something like that. This should be the highest place fight on the card.
55:28
I don't think it's gonna go the distance. It's minus five hundred to
55:31
end early, so yeah, either way, we're putting up a big boy
55:35
score. It's just if I win one hundred, this is the fight where
55:37
we're getting a no poke, I mean and I poke. I'm not gonna
55:42
screw everybody over by doing that. Maybe I'll limit it to like ninety five.
55:45
Who do you think, just say this fight gets to the championship rounds,
55:49
who has the card you would advantage? Because looking at that first fight,
55:52
I feel very confidence roy Val. The pace he was pushing, I
55:55
thought he was breaking Pantosia. But then you go look at the last Pantoja
56:00
just had against Moreno Like, I mean, like, how how much higher
56:04
pace can that fight be in twenty five minutes? He didn't. He looked
56:07
tired in the beginning, but he didn't fight like he was tired. I
56:09
think that's a bit it's not expected to go there. But what would you
56:12
say if it did get there? Yeah, I gotta say Pantosi just because
56:15
we just saw him do it. And roy Val has only been to the
56:19
third round one time in all of his UFC career, and that was a
56:22
very close fight. He could have lost it. So just the fact that
56:25
he's never been there, never even been close to it, really gives me
56:30
the vibes of Pantosa should be favored in those championship rounds. Yeah, fair
56:34
enough. I'm on the roy Vel side. I'm taking the dog shot.
56:37
These these small dudes, I think they're so interchangeable, these guys in the
56:40
top five, I think any I think Royvel wins his fight four or five
56:44
times. The scrambles in the first fight were insane. Pantosia gets an easy
56:47
takedown early had the back was rolling around for a little while. But Revel
56:52
was always moving, he was always doing something. He got a reversal.
56:57
He actually got Pantosian a nice like ankle, and he GrITT knee bar.
57:00
He was mixing and mixing and matchingsub missions on the mat. It got to
57:04
the feet. He had the pressure, he at the pace, the jab,
57:07
the kicks. Like, I think it's a really close fight, man,
57:09
I really do. So give me the thousand savings. It looks to
57:13
be a little lower on I'll probably be in the sixty to forty other range
57:15
with roy Bell not as strong. I'm not confident by any means, but
57:20
it's it's easier when you're plus one sixty five, when you're a thousand cheaper.
57:24
I think it's just a really close fight. And I think again they
57:27
fight ten times four. Five's Roy Bell. It's a junkyard dog type of
57:31
fight. Man. I've been really impressed with what I've seen for a Bell.
57:36
Unorthodox, good grappling, good strikers. So is Pantosia. Though they're
57:38
both complete studs. I do think Pantosa probably gets easy takedowns early rovel,
57:44
not great takedown defense. I just I think the scrambling he can really make
57:47
Pantosia work. I recommend everyone go back and watch that first fight, though
57:52
it was insane, only lasted like seven minutes. That first round was nuts,
57:54
though, and I think it's gonna play out very similar. This fight's
57:58
gonna hit the mat. Well, the more I'm talking through it, I
58:00
agree with you. I probably lock button this fight and something gross happens,
58:05
like gets pulled after lock or whatever it may be. But it's so hard
58:08
to see this fight not being optimal unless it's something crazy like that. Yeah,
58:15
I feel like it would just be a slower paced fight than the last
58:17
time, of course, but then maybe Pantosia subs them in the third round.
58:22
Scores eighty scores ten x, and that might not get there something like
58:27
that. Yeah, it's just I'm not trying to chink everybody if I go
58:30
one hundred percent, I screw everybody over, So I'm not gonna do it.
58:31
Yeah, No, that makes sense. Definitely, there's always pass where
58:36
it doesn't and it's gonna be ninety percent owned cumulative, So yeah, maybe
58:39
that won't make the role. What's up, Nickel, what's going on?
58:43
Last fight of the night, Last fight in the year twenty twenty three been
58:46
a great year. Again. Appreciate that we're hanging out with a lot of
58:49
familiar faces every single week. We really do appreciate it. Leon Edwards taking
58:53
on Kobe Covington eighty two hundred, Leon eight thousand for Kobe. Looking at
58:59
the odds, one sixty is Leon plus one forty is Kobe? This fight
59:04
is mine? Or is plus one twenty to finish Leon plus two to ten
59:07
and Kobe plus four hundred. Yes, everyone made waight, Nickel. I
59:13
know we're on the same side in this one. I bet Kobe a month
59:15
ago, maybe maybe even over a month ago. I knew right after the
59:20
Usman Leon second fight, I was gonna be on Kobe. Just think the
59:23
wrestling is gonna be there. I didn't. I thought Usman was not the
59:27
same Usman by any means. In that rematch, the first fight, I
59:30
mean the head kick man. It was so so sick, one of the
59:34
craziest things of all time. But I mean it was usman all day in
59:37
that fight, would take downs in wrestling. Until then, I'm on Kobe.
59:43
I think he pushes the pace. He does what he does, and
59:45
when he wins, Todu puts up some monsters. When Leon wins, I
59:49
could see it, like you said for the Pantosia, just in that round
59:52
three. I could see Leon knocking out Kobe in round three after being controlled
59:55
and wrestled for two rounds and not be on the optimal. Looking at ownership
1:00:00
before I throw it to you, we have Leon at thirty six, Kobe
1:00:06
at forty eight. I do agree with that, even though he's the dog
1:00:09
in two hundred less, I do think he's gonna be higher on which does
1:00:13
I don't like that, but I don't know. Usually I'm like doing back
1:00:16
of Dirden. I'm always game theory, taking advantage of the field. But
1:00:20
I've been on Kobe for like a year now, so I can't go back.
1:00:22
I'll have more Kobe and New Yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna
1:00:27
I'm on Kobe you know what people are asking, like his outfit, the
1:00:30
things he's saying, all that we're not getting into that. We care about
1:00:32
making money and what happens in the octagon. What are you doing in this
1:00:36
one? Yeah, it's gonna be Kobe or pass for me. I do
1:00:39
think it could be a very close fight. Maybe Edwards does just piece him
1:00:44
up on the feet, but he's gonna need a knockout for a real ceiling
1:00:49
here, unless Kobe just does want to strike with him for a while.
1:00:52
I think Kobe could even win a striking match here. Just give me the
1:00:55
pace that Kobe thought usman at. I think he could beat Edwards just on
1:01:00
pace alone on the feet. But Edwards is the better and more dangerous striker
1:01:04
for sure. It's just that Edwards has won five UFC fights that went to
1:01:10
the fifth round and he averages eighty four DraftKings points in those fights. Kolby
1:01:15
has won four UFC fights that went to the fifth round and he averages one
1:01:20
hundred and fifty one DraftKings points in those fights. Like, Kobe has the
1:01:24
highest ceiling on the slate by far, So I'm gonna be super heavy on
1:01:30
Kolby. I'm not gonna screw you guys over by going one hundred and fifty.
1:01:34
So I'll probably get like eighty percent Kolby here and then I'm gonna fade
1:01:37
the other twenty percent In case second round a third round Edwards knockout does come,
1:01:43
it just probably doesn't score enough. And especially at the ownership that he's
1:01:45
gonna get, i just have no interest in matching the field. I'm gonna
1:01:50
fade him instead of being underweight, and I'll get my exposure elsewhere. Fading
1:01:52
him, though, should condense my player pool to where I want it to
1:01:57
be more so. But yeah, that's that's how I'm gonna be attacking this
1:02:00
one. Kobe will be my highest boned fighter on the card and he could
1:02:05
actually lose this fight and outscore Leon Edwards. So because this is a lot
1:02:09
of people that everyone hates Kobe but they know he's good. But everyone,
1:02:15
I mean, especially if you watch a press conference of stuff yesterday, some
1:02:19
people that bothers them. It's the fight games how she goes. But do
1:02:22
you think why I'm saying all this that people are gonna let their heart and
1:02:27
everything get into her, like I want Leon to win, like he's the
1:02:29
fit, Like all this and the ownership's closer than we maybe think, just
1:02:31
because I mean, he's a favorite anyway, It's only a two hundred dollars
1:02:36
difference, Like I don't know, twelve percent more for Kobe feels a little
1:02:39
crazy, but I think it's right, Like he's the way better DK play.
1:02:44
Do you think people's emotions will get this line a little closer now?
1:02:47
I don't think the people who are gonna let the emotions affect it are really
1:02:52
that much, to be honest with you, Yeah, the way I wanted
1:02:55
to go down is I hope Kolbe goes out there and wins and then backstage
1:02:59
gets his jumped or something like that. It's fine with me. But go
1:03:01
out there, get your hand raised, and win me some money first,
1:03:05
and then I don't care what happens to come into an after that. Yeah,
1:03:07
I don't. We don't care about anything. All we want is money.
1:03:12
Pick who we think is gonna win. We try and make the most
1:03:14
we can. Outside of that. You can have your opinions on anybody,
1:03:16
Everyone's entitled to those, But Kobe and New is the pick for us.
1:03:22
Both absolutely love them. In DFS twelve Fight Pay per view Card Tea Mobile
1:03:25
Arena, NFL Saturday as well. There's NBA NFL of course this week and
1:03:30
two Sundays. So much money to be made. I couldn't be more excited.
1:03:35
Again. We appreciate everyone hanging out all year. We get a month
1:03:38
off January thirteenth. I believe we'll be back. You'll see the same two
1:03:43
faces all next year, twenty twenty four as well. But any final words,
1:03:45
Big Marley, Now let's go out with the bang. Hopefully it's a
1:03:49
great card. Good luck to you, good luck to everybody listening. It's
1:03:52
been a fun year, but more to come next year, I expect,
1:03:55
just every year is gonna get better and better over their shiping nation. Absolutely
1:04:00
a lot of highs, of course, a lot of lows as well throughout
1:04:02
the year. That won't change. That's the industry we're in again. We'll
1:04:06
be back January twelfth, talking some fights. Everybody out there. Have a
1:04:11
merry Christmas, Happy holidays, happy New year, be safe, make some
1:04:15
money, Good luck everybody for Big Marley. I'm titled talent. Have a
1:04:18
go one. Be safe,